‘Open The F**kin’ Strait’: Trump Threatens To ‘Blow Everything Up’ If No Iran Deal By Tuesday
Summary:
Trump offers Iranian negotiators amnesty, threatens to ‘blow everything up’ if no deal
IEA Head warns Asia (implying Beijing) is panic hoarding fuel
Trump warns Iran ‘Open the Fuckin’ Strait’ or “you’ll be living in hell’
Trump Talks With Fox Reporter About US-Iran Negotiations
Shortly after President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” the president spoke with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst for 15 minutes early Sunday.
Trump provided Yingst with new details on the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iranians and what would happen if Iran does not reach a good-faith deal.
Yingst said Trump told him, “If they don’t make a deal, and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.” The reporter went on to say that the president added that if there is no deal, bridges and power plants will go down all over the country.
Yingst asked the president about the possibility of an agreement with the Iranians. The president said those negotiating on behalf of Tehran have been granted amnesty for now so they can continue the talks.
The reporter noted that Trump thinks a deal can be reached by Monday. Trump said, “I think there’s a good chance tomorrow. They’re negotiating now.“
NEW:
“If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil,” President Trump told me.
President Trump added that he believes he’ll be able to get a deal with Iran by tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/a7EDL6hQUJ
International Energy Agency Head Warns Of Panic Hoarding Oil In Asia
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.
“I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports,” Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. “It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result.”
The FT noted that Birol was “careful not to name China directly,” but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing, which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Birol said that “major countries in Asia who hold major refineries” should reconsider their current bans, adding, “If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic.”
Birol’s hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA’s coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.
Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela’s oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.
Alhajji noted then, “I’m not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren’t able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know.” He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.
Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan’s top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.
“Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release,” Birol said. “They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community.”
Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled “A Crude Awakening“: “The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier.”
Trump Tells Tehran: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait”
Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”
Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this ‘operation’? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?
The market rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Tuesday’s rally one of the best trading days since 2022. However, that should also be unsurprising, since the best trading days tend to cluster with the worst market periods. As we noted in Stock Market Breadth on Monday:
“The single most damaging decision most investors make during periods of falling stock market breadth is selling. The data on this is unambiguous. Seven of the market’s 10 best days in any given 20-year period occur within two weeks of the 10 worst days, according to JPMorgan Asset Management research. The best days follow the worst days because fear-driven selling creates dislocations that are rapidly corrected. You can see this in the chart below, that the best and worst days are clustered together.”
In other words, while investors are always told to just “buy and hold” because they will miss the 10-BEST days if they don’t, investors should focus on mitigating the risk of significant capital losses during those periods.
This doesn’t mean you can effectively miss all the bad days; however, given that higher-volatility periods tend to cluster, understanding when to reduce exposure can significantly improve outcomes over time. Even if you miss the 10-best days along the way. That math applies with particular force in setups like the current one. Since 1974, according to data compiled by Clear Perspective Advisors, the S&P 500 has returned more than 24% on average following a market correction. Only 25% of the 48 corrections since World War II have progressed into full bear markets. In other words, there is a 75% chance this correction will not turn into a bear market. However, dismissing that 25% entirely is just as foolish for future outcomes.
This is why the rally this past week was not unexpected. Oversold conditions, exhausted sellers, aggressive short positioning, and algorithmic covering all tend to converge after sustained selling pressure. Goldman’s trading desk noted this week that the capitulation checklist is nearly complete, with the S&P now below all key moving averages and below critical CTA selling thresholds. When those conditions are clear, the snap-back can be sharp. But it’s a trap.
Why do I say that? Because that is what I have learned repeatedly over 35 years of managing money. The rallies that come off oversold extremes are seductive precisely because they feel like confirmation that the worst is over. They’re fast, they’re loud, and they draw in sidelined capital chasing performance. Sentiment indicators flip from extreme fear to cautious optimism in a matter of days.
Bottom line:If the bull case for this rally is ‘stocks were down a lot, and people were scared,’ that’s not a fundamental argument. It’s a positioning argument. It expires quickly.
And in the current environment, the macro headwinds haven’t gone anywhere. Even if the Iranian conflict is resolved on Monday, private credit stress remains, the impact of higher oil and gasoline prices is working its way through the economy, and questions remain about artificial intelligence.
But there is another reason to fade this rally.
Earnings Hit Still Coming
The difference between a durable recovery and a dead-cat bounce is almost always visible in the underlying fundamentals, not the price action alone. Right now, the fundamentals argue for caution.
Goldman’s own scenario analysis puts a moderate slowdown path at 6,300 on the S&P 500 and a severe oil-shock path as low as 5,400. Neither of those scenarios is priced into current earnings estimates. S&P 500 companies are still being modeled at roughly $309 per share in earnings for 2026, figures built on assumptions about GDP growth and energy costs that the past eight weeks have materially challenged. When earnings revisions begin in earnest, they tend to hit in waves. We’re likely in the early innings of that process, and it will impact forward returns. The reason is that the market trades off forward earnings expectations; if those expectations fall, the market reprices for lower earnings growth.
Add to that the technical damage. Breaking below the 200-day moving average is not a minor event. Historically, a clean break below that level without a swift recapture has resolved to the downside more often than not. The index now sits below all key moving averages, and the burden of proof has shifted. Bulls need to prove the trend has reversed. Sellers don’t need to prove anything.
“As shown in the comparative table below, understanding the difference between a sustained break of the 200-dma and one that wasn’t was critical to future returns.” –Break Of The 200-DMA
We are still within the first 4-weeks of the break of the 200-day moving average. The market rally this past week, following those five consecutive weekly declines, doesn’t mean the downside risk is over. If the market fails to climb above that now-critical resistance level, the potential for a retest of recent lows increases.
However, this doesn’t mean you get out of the markets entirely.
So, When Should You Start Accumulating
The one thing that bothers me most about the “Perpetual Purveyors of Doom” is that they repeatedly tell you for years that the market is going to crash. Eventually, they will be correct. However, what they don’t tell you is when to start buying the cataclysm. The voices are currently louder than ever.
However, the current market backdrop is nothing like the catastrophic events of the past, such as the financial crisis or the Dot-com crash. This is a well-needed correction after the massive post-“Liberation Day” rally last summer. Nonetheless, the damage done during declines is always troublesome, but it needs to be kept in perspective.
Yes, we certainly suggest using this rally to cash in and reduce risk. After consecutive weekly declines, a rally was inevitable. However, I am also not saying “sell everything” or “stay in cash indefinitely.” The market will eventually bottom and recover. The reason is that the market will eventually “price in” the risk and begin to look forward. The economy will adapt and begin to grow. As such, the question isn’t whether to own equities, it’s just a question of when and at what price.
There are four specific conditions I want to see before moving from a defensive to a constructive stance. None of them requires perfect clarity. All of them require meaningful evidence.
None of these conditions exists today. They may develop over the coming weeks or months. When they do, I’ll tell you. However, here is how to position for what is likely coming next.
🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week
The first full week of Q2 is book-ended by two events that will define the rate narrative for the next two months: the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and March CPI on Friday. Everything else is secondary, other than what oil prices are doing.
The March 17–18 FOMC Minutes are the week’s first inflection point, but we already know the outcome. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, with only Miran dissenting in favor of a cut. However, the minutes will reveal how close the internal debate actually was. Given that the March meeting was the first to formally incorporate the Iran oil shock, the 15% global tariff regime, and the February payroll collapse into the Summary of Economic Projections, the minutes will be important to consider. In those projections, core inflation forecasts were revised higher to 2.7% for 2026, while GDP was upgraded to 2.4%. That combination, hotter inflation with resilient growth, justified the hold. But the question the markets need answered now is whether the spike in oil prices, which will eventually weigh on economic growth, changes that math.
Speaking of oil prices, Friday’s March CPI is the week’s anchor and arguably the most consequential inflation print of the year so far. February came in at +0.3% MoM headline and +2.4% YoY, with core at +0.3% / 2.8%. But March is the first month that fully captures the oil price surge toward $100 following the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Energy-specific CPI rose 0.6% in February before the worst of the oil spike, which March will make materially worse. Food prices were already accelerating at +0.4% MoM. The core goods basket is where tariff passthrough resided, and RBC’s analysis flagged that declines in used-car prices had been masking the pressure in prior months. A hot March CPI could push rate cuts into December at the earliest, or off the table entirely. Any print above 0.4% MoM headline or 0.3% core will confirm those expectations.
Bottom line: The FOMC Minutes tell us what the Fed was thinking. The March CPI tells us whether they were right to hold. If inflation is accelerating while the labor market weakens, the policy trap is confirmed, and the market will have to price accordingly.
Investor Tactics For What Comes Next
Following five consecutive weekly declines, the market’s bounce this week could continue for a bit longer. This isn’t rocket science, and is something we repeat often. It is just a process to manage near-term risk.
Treat any near-term rally as an opportunity to rebalance, not to add exposure. Use strength to trim positions outside your target allocation and to reduce concentration in sectors most exposed to energy-cost pressure — consumer discretionary, industrials, and highly leveraged names.
Raise cash to a level that lets you sleep at night and act when opportunities arrive. That number is different for every investor, but the point is intentional: cash is a position, not a failure of nerve. Having it means you can be opportunistic when others are forced to sell.
Hedge risk that you want to keep. If you hold long-term positions, consider hedging them to reduce portfolio volatility.
Watch the 200-DMA retake attempt closely. A failed retake — where the market rallies back toward that level and then rolls over — is one of the clearest signals that the intermediate-term trend remains down. A successful retake on expanding volume materially changes the picture.
Stress-test your portfolio for oil above $100 through year-end. Goldman’s bear case is 5,400 on the S&P. That’s a decline from current levels that would test the tolerance of most retail investors. Know your number before the market finds it for you.
Don’t abandon fixed income. Duration has been painful, but investment-grade credit and short-term Treasuries are doing exactly what they should: providing ballast. A barbell approach — short-duration credit on one side, selectively opportunistic equity exposure on the other — remains the structure most likely to survive what comes next.
Again, this is nothing new, and we can sum it all up in just five words:
Defense over offense. Trade accordingly.
The one silver lining is valuation. As Morgan Stanley noted this past week, the S&P now trades roughly 17% cheaper than pre-war levels on forward earnings. That is approaching ranges historically associated with correction endings, provided the economy avoids recession, and the Fed doesn’t hike.
There is no guarantee of either, so caution remains a “trading position.”
Third Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees As Jet Fuel Prices Spike
The New York Harbor jet fuel benchmark has doubled in just five weeks as the aviation fuel crisis spreads from airport to airport worldwide following ongoing disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint. The third-order effects of that energy shock began to materialize this past week, with major U.S. airlines raising checked-bag fees to offset soaring fuel costs.
United Airlines and JetBlue Airways, two major U.S. carriers, raised checked-baggage fees for domestic travel this week as they begin to figure out ways to address the impact of surging jet fuel prices without causing ticket sticker shock for customers.
On Monday, JetBlue raised first-checked-bag prices by $4 to $9, depending on the timing and travel date. Later in the week, United raised its checked-bag fee by $10 for new bookings, pushing some domestic economy bag fees as high as $50.
Both airlines said the increased fees are uncommon, with JetBlue citing higher operating costs and United noting it was the first increase in two years.
“United is raising first and second checked bag fees by $10 for customers traveling in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and Latin America beginning with tickets purchased Friday, April 3,” the airline said.
There have been no other indications (yet) from American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, or Frontier Airlines on whether they will follow, but we suspect similar measures are approaching if jet fuel prices remain elevated through the end of this month.
Wall Street analysts have noted that raising baggage fees may be a better near-term option than aggressively hiking ticket prices, allowing airlines to shore up eroded margins hit hard by the fuel shock while limiting customer backlash.
United CEO Scott Kirby has already warned that ticket prices may need to rise by as much as 20% to offset the surge in fuel costs. He has urged travelers to lock in fares before prices move higher.
Last month, analysts at Deutsche Bank and UBS both warned that airlines may have to cut capacity to absorb the spike in jet fuel prices. Reduced capacity, combined with higher fuel costs, points to possible demand destruction in travel this summer as consumers face sticker shock at the checkout screen.
The S&P 500 Airlines Index has not fared well during the five-week Middle East conflict. The index is already showing a technical breakdown as analysts begin to worry about margin erosion.
“WE GOT HIM!”: Trump Says As 2nd Downed Pilot Recovered In High Risk Iran Special Forces Raid After ‘Dicey’ Firefight
Summary
Second downed pilot recovered after US Special Forces raid and firefight inside Iran.
Fire Breaks Out At Kuwait Oil Ministry Complex After Iran Drone Strike
President Trump reminds Iran of deal timeline, threatens “all hell will reign down” if time runs out.
Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant
The U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran
* * *
US Special Forces Recover 2nd Downed Pilot
We have now witnessed an initial ‘boots on the ground’ moment as a high risk US special forces raid and aerial operation has recovered the second crew member from the downed F-15E jet, which was shot down in Iran on Saturday. US officials have confirmed that the downed pilot from the F-15E jet has been “recovered” in Iran following a “heavy firefight” – according to Al Jazeera, Axios, and others.
Per Axios: “The shootdown was a nightmare scenario for the U.S. military, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also racing to locate the missing U.S. officer in southwest Iran over the past 36 hours. Both crew members were rescued in special forces operations inside Iran.”
The report continues, “One of the U.S. officials said Saturday’s operation was conducted by a specialized commando unit with a high volume of air cover, that the U.S. forces unleashed a hail of heavy fire, and that all of the forces were now out of Iran.”
Former Ranger/Special Forces veteran turned journalist Jack Murphy first broke the story late Saturday night. His investigative reporting on sensitive operations, particularly in Syria, has been previously featured by ZeroHedge. He writes:
Good news for once. F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area.
He called the whole saga “dicey as hell” but says late into the night (US time) that all American forces are now out of harm’s way…
Wheels up all friendlies out. C130 got a wheel stuck in the sand at the FARP and a Delta element had to come in and blow it in place. Whole op sounds dicey as hell but they pulled it off. Goodnight. https://t.co/3LuuXE1Jny
Intense Clashes Reported Between US and Iranian Forces Over Search And Rescue Of Downed F-15 Crew Member
There are intense clashes underway according to unconfirmed reports, between US and Iranian forces in Southwestern Iran, in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, related to rescue operations for our downed F-15 crew member who contrary to multiple rumors, has not been extracted yet.
The video below shows fighting between USAF CSAR teams and IRGC Basij militants attempting to capture the second F-15E crew member.
Heavy clashes have been reported in Dehdasht, a city in the Central District of Kohgiluyeh County, where the second American pilot was reportedly spotted. pic.twitter.com/DDleOptrfD
According to subsequent reports, In the village of Shitab near Dehdasht, where rumors spread that the pilot had been seen, a large crowd gathered to capture him. According to reports, a U.S. A-10 fighter jet has been deployed to the area for support.
Live Update 9: US Missing Pilot – In Iran
These video is from tonight are from the heart of the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad mountains in IRAN ; a place where they had gone to search for the missing US pilot, but they have been targeted by US forces
The U.S. Army has established a “fire zone” in the Dehdasht area inside Iran, around the location where the missing U.S. pilot was reportedly found alive. The U.S. is not allowing anyone to enter this area. US military search on the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad mountains continues
* * *
Fire Breaks Out At Kuwait Oil Ministry Complex After Iran Drone Strike
Kuwait’s Finance Ministry said an Iranian drone targeted the country’s Ministries Complex Saturday evening, causing significant material damage. No injuries were recorded and emergency teams are dealing with the incident, the ministry said in a statement. The complex, located in Kuwait City, is home to several ministries including the Finance Ministry, Industry and Commerce and the Justice Ministry. Employees of the complex will be working remotely Sunday, the statement said. A drone attack also caused a fire just a few miles away at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex in Kuwait City, officials said. Kuwait said it was intercepting waves of drones and missiles during the time of the attacks.
BREAKING: Kuwait’s Ministry of Oil building has been hit in an Iranian attack.
Large fire reported at the ministry complex in Shuwaikh.
The ministry runs Kuwait’s entire oil sector. Iran is now hitting the buildings that set Gulf oil policy, not just the facilities that produce… pic.twitter.com/OYtFUHb88Y
Additionally, according to Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, two Kuwaiti power and water desalination plants were attacked by Iranian drones, causing ‘significant damage.’
Kuwait says two power plants and water desalination plants were attacked by Iranian drones, resulting in significant material damage and the shutdown of two electricity generating units https://t.co/Rj7sJoTJampic.twitter.com/fHcvLfqZVB
President Trump Reminds Iran of Timeline, Threatens “All Hell Will Reign Down”
As the long weekend continues, President Trump has issued a statement on his social media feed, reminding Iranian negotiators of his timeline for a deal:
Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.
And then the threat:
Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.
Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The odds of ‘boots on the ground’ have soared to 83% by the end of the month:
It seems the stock market’s hope (diverging from oil’s surge) was misplaced…for now.
Search Operations Continue for Missing Airmen Continues
With U.S. and Israeli air-delivered munitions still striking targets across Iran, and Tehran retaliating by hitting high-value sites around the Gulf area, while continuing to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is now entering its sixth week with no credible signs of near-term de-escalation. Add in President Trump’s speech last week, which warned that intense targeting could continue for a few more weeks, and it’s a very fair assessment that the conflict will carry into next week, with momentum and escalation to the upside.
On Saturday, the U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, marking the first downed U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, but the second remained missing, with Iranian forces also racing to find the missing pilot.
The downed F-15 jet came shortly after a U.S. Black Hawk was hit by ground fire, and an A-10 Thunderbolt II reportedly crashed Friday near the Hormuz chokepoint. Friday was not a great day for U.S. aircraft as the conflict intensified.
C-17 Globemaster IIIs are on the move.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 With one of the F-15 pilots still missing in Iran, the U.S conducted the largest visible airlift of the war so far.
In a rapidly escalating phase of the US-Israel war on Iran (now around day 36+ since late February strikes that targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure), Tehran has intensified its retaliation while the US and Israel press air campaigns. Iranian missiles struck central Israel on Saturday, triggering widespread sirens and causing visible damage, including to residential areas and an industrial zone near Beersheba. Reports mentioned cluster bomb effects and shrapnel injuries, though Israeli defenses intercepted many projectiles.
At the same time, Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, according to the semiofficial Iranian Tasnim news agency. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had notified them about the incident.
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 The IDF just posted footage of a ballistic missile launcher being destroyed in Tabriz, Iran’s 4th largest city, deep in the northwest.
That’s the IDF reaching across the entire country to take out the thing shooting at Tel Aviv.
Let’s not forget President Trump’s speech on Wednesday, in which he suggested the conflict could continue for weeks and insisted the missing airman would not alter efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Iran launched a fresh missile barrage at central Israel, causing fires, damage in areas like Negev, Rosh Haayin, Bnei Brak, and reports of cluster munitions; minor injuries reported, with one man hurt in Bnei Brak.
An apparent Iranian drone damaged the Dubai headquarters of the U.S. tech giant Oracle on Saturday after Iranian forces threatened dozens of US firms. Iran has been targeting Gulf area data centers, and reports of a water desalination plant on Friday made headlines.
Latest headlines
(courtesy of Bloomberg):
US Military Losses
Iran shot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet on Friday, with one crew member still missing and search-and-rescue operations ongoing [APW] [BN] [APW]
A second US combat plane reportedly crashed in the Persian Gulf the same day [BN] [APW]
Iran has called on the public to find the ‘enemy pilot’ and is promising a reward [APW]
Iran says it used a new air defence system to target the US fighter jet [NS1]
Iranian Attacks
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted an Israel-linked ship, the MSC Ishyka, with a drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz, setting it on fire [NS8] [NS1]
Iranian cluster missiles hit central Israel with at least four impact sites and reports of vehicles on fire [NS8]
Missile fragments impacted near Tel Aviv after an Iranian missile barrage, with no casualties reported [JPT]
US-Israeli Strikes
US-Israeli strikes allegedly hit multiple areas in Iran on Saturday, targeting government-affiliated and industrial facilities including the Bushehr nuclear site [NS8]
More than 30 universities across Iran have been directly targeted by US-Israeli strikes since the war began in late February [NS8]
The US destroyed the B1 Bridge in Karaj on April 2 in two separate bombings, targeting what Iran describes as a civilian engineering project [NS8]
Diplomatic Efforts
Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table with a compromise framework focusing on ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz [NS8]
Global Impact
The war has entered its sixth week with energy prices rising and little sign that Iran will back down or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz [BN]
Senegal has banned all but essential foreign trips for government ministers due to cost-saving measures triggered by the energy crisis linked to the Iran war [APW]
Chinese firms with ties to the military are marketing detailed intelligence on US force movements as the war continues [WPT]
In commodity markets, the ongoing energy shock, with crude and LNG facilities across the Gulf area disrupted and the Hormuz chokepoint still clogged, prompted Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby to ask on Friday evening: “Are We Running Out Of Oil?”
“As the last tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the war are reaching their destination, concerns about potential oil shortages are rising,” Grigsby told clients.
She said, “We analyze country-product-specific oil markets, identify pockets of potential extreme tightness, and discuss the potential evolution of near-term shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for longer.”
“Our three-way analysis highlights already critically low supplies of petrochemical feedstocks — naphtha and LPG — in Asia, with cross-product scarcity in multiple Asian countries in April,” the analyst added.
To end the week, Brent futures and WTI futures both closed Friday in triple-digit territory as traders are becoming increasingly alarmed not just of the crude oil and LNG shortage spreading worldwide but also of petrochemical supply disruptions that are inbound that could affect plastics production, the core material that is bedrock for the modern economy.
Let’s remind readers of how the energy shock dominoes fall.
JPMorgan analysts mapped out how the energy shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US – primarily California.
During his Wednesday night speech, Donald Trump made the following claim about Iran’s air defenses: “They have no anti-aircraft equipment, their radar’s 100% annihilated, we are unstoppable as a military force.”
The White House followed this Friday, with a statement from a spokesperson, Anna Kelley, who further emphasized, “Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran,” she said.
It appears that President Trump was a bit premature. The US Air Force had a difficult day on Friday:
F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing.
A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered.
2X HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit during CSAR mission, one crash-landed across the border in Iraq. All crew reportedly rescued.
KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
It appears that Iran has no centralized air defense C2 or any kind of joint engagement zone (JEZ) anymore.
However, as evidenced by the incidents above, Iran appears to be relying on Vietnam-style guerrilla tactics of shoot-and-scoot air defense with their passive and highly tactical indigenous system… The IR-SA-7’s (pronounced “Ur-sah-seven”).
These Some are specially developed missiles that can loiter at altitude, almost like a glider, completely passive, that lie in wait for one of the US older generation fighters, tankers or other support aircraft to wander too close and then hone-in. While the US can claim “air supremacy” this does not mean that US aircraft can fly over Iran without incurring the risk of being shot down.
I wonder if the Russians are paying attention to Iran’s information operations? Iran is proving to be quite clever and creative in producing videos that take trolling to new heights.
Forget Temu’s “Bugatti” Knockoff. Texas Man 3D-Printed A Lamborghini Aventador Body
Forget ordering a $30,000 “Bugatti” knockoff from Chinese e-commerce websites like Temu.
A private seller in Texas is now offering what appears to be a fully 3D-printed Lamborghini Aventador body on Facebook Marketplace, highlighting how 3D printing is revolutionizing custom vehicle manufacturing.
“This is a fully 3D-printed Lamborghini Aventador project that gives you a huge head start. It includes the complete body, front frame, rear frame, and monocoque already printed and sized to Aventador dimensions,” the listing stated.
The 3D-printed Aventador body is listed for $5,000. But the price jumps to $7,500 if buyers want the exterior and interior all glued together, or $8,500 if they want the frame pieces included in the gluing.
To complete the build, the seller says the body will still need to be reinforced with fiberglass, mounted to a steel frame, and fitted with a drivetrain, suspension, and interior (view listing here).
Automotive website Jalopnik was the first to report the listing, offering its take:
I may have some ideas about 3D print strength that friends of mine call “overly conservative” or “downright anxious,” but I still don’t think I’d trust a car with a tub that’s been glued together out of various 3D prints. The seller doesn’t even specify what kind of plastic they’re using. ABS is an option, but ever-popular PLA filament will degrade under the kind of constant UV exposure that a car sees.
While censorship is often the main focus of discussions about free speech, there’s a related phenomenon that can do just as much damage to a free society. Not by preventing people from saying things they believe in, but by forcing them to say things they do not.
Compelled speech requires people to use certain words or phrases, or to partake in upholding certain ideological beliefs. It is just as dangerous to free expression as overt censorship.
The constant recitation of indigenous “land acknowledgements” illustrates Canada’s shift towards enforced mass-compliance on complicated social issues. These statements have become ubiquitous in Canadian public life: at schools, workplaces, government functions, ceremonies, and sporting events. Institutions display them on websites, documents, email signatures, and social media. A busy person in Canada may come across dozens of land acknowledgements per day in various contexts.
Although framed as optional gestures of respect, many organizations now have policies mandating land acknowledgements; in other circumstances, social pressure can make them seem obligatory even if they’re not.
Land acknowledgements have morphed well beyond a simple sharing of history into something much more problematic: they have become a sort of sacred ritual with near-spiritual implications, tying certain ethnic groups to ownership over nature itself. When unpacked, there is a lot being said between the lines.
Stepping out of line on land acknowledgements can set off a variety of hostile reactions, ranging from social condemnation to significant legal consequences. Geoffrey Horsman is a biochemistry professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont. As a parent of three children in the local school system and a member of his local school’s parent council, he noted the growing politicization of the regional school system. Of particular concern was the practice of opening every meeting with a land acknowledgement, which took up valuable time and reinforced what he considers a divisive premise.
“I don’t think there is anything good that can come out of the idea that a certain ethnic group are the true inheritors of this land,” Horsman said in an interview. But when he raised his objections about the practice, he encountered immediate resistance. In a series of meetings with Waterloo Region District School Board staff, he was told that even discussing the issue was off the table. He has since brought a legal case against the board.
Catherine Kronas, the mother of a student attending Ancaster High Secondary School in Hamilton, Ont., actually lost her position as an elected member of her school council last year after she politely disagreed with land statements being read out loud before meetings. “School councils should decide what gets said in their meetings, and we shouldn’t have to recite something mandated by the government,” she told me. Kronas was reinstated only after threatening legal action.
Horsman’s and Kronas’s cases are both about indigenous land acknowledgements, but the issues they raise run deeper. They could have been challenging any form of imposed ideological speech. In fact, many Canadian governments and institutions are developing a worrying track record of legally enforcing ideological language on a number of topics.
The B.C. Human Rights Tribunal, for example, recently levied an astonishing $750,000 fine against Barry Neufeld, a former school board trustee, after he was critical of the integration and facilitation of transgenderism within public education. Neufeld says he will appeal the fine, which clearly aims to punish him financially for expressing his lack of belief in what the tribunal seems to think is an unquestionable truth.
Compelled speech, or compelled support for any position, quells discourse and creates a type of moral injury. Whether you support the notion of land acknowledgements or not, there is a contradiction at the core of the concept: how can words be respectful if they are coerced?
Most Canadians consider themselves polite, kind, and caring, a usually laudable set of characteristics that has lately been weaponized. How might we begin to move on from the current cultural climate of tension and towards a freer and more relaxed Canada?
Retired Manitoba judge Brian Giesbrecht has some suggestions. In an interview, Giesbrecht agrees that today’s land acknowledgements “create a divisive form of belief in which some people only have rights as ‘settlers.’” To shift this situation, he offers a list of possible ways Canadians can object to compelled speech. His list includes making a written complaint, standing up and objecting in public, walking out of a meeting, and using legal channels to challenge attempted ideological coercion.
The future of a prosperous, functional, united Canada depends on being able to say what you believe and having the freedom to remain silent when you do not. This Canada can and must be restored. Next time you encounter a belief you do not feel eager to participate in, consider abstaining or politely pushing back. If we all resist these pressures, it will no longer be an act of bravery to conduct oneself genuinely and truthfully.
George Ramsay is a recent kinesiology graduate from Victoria, British Columbia. This is an edited version of his grand-prize-winning entry in the 3rd Annual Patricia Trottier and Gwyn Morgan Student Essay Contest first published by C2C Journal.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
GOP Senator Opposes More Than 60 Days Of War On Iran Without War Declaration
In what could become a key milestone in an unpopular US-Israeli war on Iran that has the world on the edge of economic catastrophe, a Republican senator from one America’s reddest states has announced his opposition to continued action against Iran beyond 60 days from the Feb 28 commencement of hostilities — unless Congress approves it.
“I support the president’s actions taken in defense of American lives and interests,” wrote first-term Sen. John Curtis in an opinion piece published by the Desert News. “However, I will not support ongoing military action beyond a 60-day window without congressional approval.”
I stand by the President’s actions taken in defense of our national security interests in the Middle East. But we must be clear-eyed about history and the Constitution. While I support maintaining our readiness and replenishing stockpiles, I cannot support funding for further…
— Senator John Curtis (@SenJohnCurtis) April 3, 2026
Walking a careful and arguably untenable line as he represents a reliably red state that Trump won by 22 points in 2024, Curtis gave full backing to Trump’s unilateral commitment of US forces to war in concert with the State of Israel. Curtis goes so far as to declare that “Iran’s consistent and increasingly disruptive behavior presents exactly the kind of threat the War Powers Resolution envisions.”
Note, he didn’t refer — as some others have — to an impending retaliation against US forces in the region if Israel had acted alone (an argument that itself ignores America’s theoretical power to order Israel to stand down). Instead, Curtis argued that Iran’s decades of actions in the region somehow cleared the War Powers Resolution’s hurdle of “a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that about two-thirds of Americans want the U.S. to end its involvement in the Iran War quickly, even if it means not achieving its goals.
Curtis argues, however, that the Constitution clearly assigns responsibility for authorizing sustained war to the Congress:
“The Constitution assigns Congress the responsibility to “provide for the common defense,” and in that context, it gives Congress the corresponding power to declare war. It would be an act of disrespect to our Constitution if we were to accord the president the right to make war without any declaration of war; the Framers deliberately described a substantive power to declare war and assigned that power to Congress.”
In addition to justifying his position the need for post-60-days congressional approval on constitutional grounds, Curtis also pointed to the grim history of the US war in Vietnam, emphasizing that what began in 1950 with the dispatching of just “thirty-five men” to assist the French in training Vietnamese troops would evolve into a peak of more than a half-million American soldiers in the country, with nearly 60,000 dying in an undeclared war.
The Iran War Powers Resolution narrowly failed, but we put everyone on record.
We’re being told this military action could last months. That’s the exact circumstance in which the Founders intended for Congress to authorize war, but sadly we’ve now abdicated that responsibility. pic.twitter.com/lE8HOLXUpc
Curtis didn’t say whether he would vote to declare war on Iran, focusing instead on his opposition to “funding for continued military operations without Congress having the opportunity to weigh in.” There have already been several attempts to block further military action without congressional approval — all of them have been thwarted. To this point, only a few Republicans have backed these war-power resolutions: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul joined Democrats in supporting a Senate measure, while Kentucky Rep Thomas Massie introduced one in the House, and was joined by Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson, who is a former Army Ranger.
Way back on March 5, House Speaker Mike Johnson said such resolutions “play right into the hands of the enemy.” He also claimed “we are not at war. We have no intention of being at war. This is a limited operation.” That “not a war” argument is belied not only by a common-sense assessment of whether a massive bombing campaign on a foreign state constitutes “war,” but also by repeated characterizations of the United States being in a state of war by President Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and others in the administration.
NOW – Trump on Iran War: “It’s for legal reasons I say military op, because as a military operation I don’t need any approvals. As a war you’re supposed to get approval from Congress, something like that. So I call it a military operation.” pic.twitter.com/gk0MEt0YOI
There are other cracks in the GOP’s support for the war. On March 19, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert recoiled at the Pentagon’s wish for a $200 billion supplemental funding to pay for the war on Iran.
“I’ve already told leadership, ‘I am a no on any war supplementals. I am so tired of spending money elsewhere. I am tired of the industrial war complex getting all of our hard-earned tax dollars. I have folks in Colorado who can’t afford to live…We need America First policies now, and that –– I’m not doing that.”
At the time, Boebert said it was “up to the president” whether the war with Iran should stop. Increasingly, it looks like it’s up to Ayatollah Khamenei.
Iran Allows Iraqi Ships To Use Strait Of Hormuz As Total Weekly Transits Reach Highest Since War Began
Over the past two weeks we have been chronicling the increased rate of crossing across the “blockaded” strait of Hormuz as a growing number of ships from friendly nations – whether untolled Chinese tankers or toll-paying Indian, Japanese and Korean vessels – have been making the passage. And as traffic through the Hormuz strait has been picking up in the past week, the seven-day rolling average for transits on Friday reached the highest since the war started, according to Bloomberg.
More vessels are crossing, including those with no clear links to Iran or China, as nations negotiate with Tehran to get their ships through. Transits over the past day were led by liquefied petroleum gas carriers, including one headed to India and others with Iranian affiliations.
Per Bloomberg calculations, a total of 13 ships have crossed since Friday morning, with 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering from the open seas, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. To be sure, that’s still a trickle compared with the numbers before the war began on Feb. 28: in normal times, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait every day.
Recent crossings included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker, seemingly the first such transits since the war began. It’s not clear whether those journeys were a result of diplomatic outreach or negotiations by shipping companies and their intermediaries.
Outbound traffic included five bulk carriers and one oil-product tanker joined the four LPG tankers in exiting the Persian Gulf since Friday morning. Three of the bulkers and the fuel tanker sailed on Saturday morning. Apart from the Indian LPG vessel, the others are linked to Chinese or Iranian interests.
On the inbound side, two LPG carriers and one fuel tanker with Iranian affiliations were among the inbound transits recorded since Friday morning.
But while traffic is slowly but surely rising, a potential gamechanger for energy flows and oli supplies through Hormuz was unveiled today when the Iranian military said major oil producer Iraq is exempt from shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Brotherly Iraq is exempt from any restrictions we have imposed on the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran’s military spokesman said in an Arabic-language video statement published by state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
The restrictions are imposed only on “enemy countries,” said Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. Iran’s control of the strait has become its biggest leverage in the conflict.
The declaration has the potential to unleash as much as 3 million barrels a day of Iraqi oil cargoes. An Iraqi official, however, cautioned that the usefulness of the exemption will depend on whether shipping companies are willing to risk entering the strait to collect cargoes.
It’s not immediately clear if the exemption will apply to all Iraqi oil or just the nation’s tankers, or indeed how it will be enforced.
Separately, officials in Iran’s Khuzestan province said the Shalamcheh international border crossing with Iraq has reopened after a brief closure. Lofteh Derokvandi, deputy governor of Khuzestan and special governor of Khorramshahr, told Iran’s state news agency IRNA that crossings had resumed for pilgrims and traders, with commercial activity continuing without disruption.
The Strait of Hormuz has been called the jugular vein of the world’s oil supply, and as Operation Epic Fury continues, Iran continues to have a chokehold on the critical supply route.
About one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas is typically shipped through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
But Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels have brought traffic through the strait to a virtual standstill since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28.
In March, just 220 vessels transited the strait, according to data from maritime analytics platform Marine Traffic. Prior to the war, thousands of ships traversed the waterway each month.
These actions have caused oil and gas prices to surge. Brent, a global benchmark for oil prices, has risen firmly above $100 a barrel overseas. The average gas price in the United States has surged past $4 per gallon.
President Donald Trump has threatened to launch strikes on Iran’s oil wells, power plants, and critical oil infrastructure on Kharg Island unless the strait is reopened. He delayed the strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, pending talks with the regime.
Here’s a look at how much oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz and where it goes.
An average of 20 million barrels of oil and refined products flowed through the narrow gateway between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran each day in 2025. That’s roughly 25 percent of the world’s sea-borne oil trade, according to a February analysis from the International Energy Agency.
The strait is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes just two miles wide in each direction.
The vast majority of crude oil and condensate—a natural gas byproduct—went to Asia (91 percent), according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Vortexa tanker-tracking data from the first half of 2025.
Of those Asian nations, China and India absorbed about half of the crude moving through the strait—37 percent and 14 percent, respectively—followed by Japan and South Korea at 12 percent each. Sixteen percent went to other countries in Asia and Oceania.
The United States and Europe remained marginal buyers, receiving just 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
Roughly three-quarters of crude oil travel by tanker ship through the strait came from Saudi Arabia (38 percent), Iraq (22 percent), and the United Arab Emirates (14 percent). Iran shipped just 11 percent.
Crude Oil Exports Transiting the Strait of Hormuz, 2025
Additionally, the strait accounts for nearly 20 percent of the global liquefied natural gas trade. Qatar, the world’s largest gas exporter after the United States, represents 93 percent of that volume.
In 2025, Asia received almost 90 percent of the liquefied natural gas flowing through the strait. Europe received just over 10 percent.
Of Asian countries, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan sourced almost two-thirds of their total liquefied natural gas supplies via the Strait of Hormuz last year.
Japan (57 percent), South Korea (55 percent), and India (50 percent) relied on the Gulf nations for at least half of their oil and gas imports in 2024. China sourced roughly 35 percent of its supplies from the region.
Additionally, Taiwan imported 40 percent of its oil and gas from the region in 2024, while Pakistan sourced more than 81 percent of its oil and gas imports from the Gulf area.
Some African countries, such as Mauritania (76 percent), Uganda (61 percent), and Kenya (55 percent), relied on the Gulf for more than half of their fuel.
Meanwhile, nearly 96 percent of Iranian oil and gas exports through the route in 2024 were designated for one destination: Pakistan.
In Europe, roughly one-third of the energy imports for Greece (35 percent), Lithuania (32 percent), and Poland (30 percent) originated from Gulf countries.
North American reliance on Gulf energy remains minimal, however. The United States received 10 percent of its imports from Gulf nations, and Canada received 5 percent.
While regional producers have sought alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, these options have struggled to serve as adequate replacements.
Saudi Arabia, for example, maintains an east-west pipeline that can move approximately 5 million barrels of oil a day to the Red Sea. However, the Abqaiq–Yanbu pipeline system has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels. This terminal is already heavily used and cannot replace the strait.
The United Arab Emirates has an oil pipeline that bypasses the strait—the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline—but it has a capacity of only 1.5 million barrels per day.
As for Qatar’s liquefied natural gas, there is no alternative route.
The strait is effectively a single point of failure for Gulf exporters, as no alternative pipeline routes can replace the volumes that move by sea.
