Update(1315ET): US Navy forces have announced a new Monday direction action operation in the Gulf of Oman. The US has cited that the vessel refused to respond to orders related to the blockade of Iranian naval ports.

The ship attempted to sail to an Iranian port, in violation of the ongoing blockade. A CENTCOM statement indicated that the military “disabled Palau-flagged M/T Marivex as it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran.”

“An F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) fired a precision munition into the ship’s engineering and steering spaces after the crew failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces,” the statement continued. “Marivex is no longer sailing to Iran,” it said. The Pentagon has also reviewed the following since initiating the blockade on April 13.

• CENTCOM forces have disabled seven non-compliant vessels
• it has redirected 134 ships that complied
• allowed 42 vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass

This is the same vessel which took on US military fire:

Indian navy helicopters airlifted 24 sailors off a tanker on fire off the coast of Oman on Monday, New Delhi officials said, without saying what caused the blaze.

India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways said a fire was reported at around 1:30 p.m. (0800 GMT) on the MT Marivex, a Palau-flagged tanker.

“There has been a fire reported on a vessel, MT Marivex, on which there were 24 Indian seafarers… all Indian seafarers are safe,” ministry director Opesh Kumar Sharma told reporters.

And more from the same report:

Images posted on social media by the Forward Seamen’s Union of India showed crew members being winched from the vessel by helicopter as thick black smoke billowed from its bridge and accommodation cabins.

The tanker’s position was shown by ship-tracking service MarineTraffic as being off the coast of Oman, south of the capital Muscat.

*  *  *

Brent crude futures jumped as much as 5% to $97.83 a barrel, while WTI traded around $95 a barrel, as renewed Iran-Israel fighting threatened to unravel a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and further disrupt energy flows.

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target.

“First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued,” the terror group said Monday in a statement.

The statement continued, “Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance.”

“Third: We affirm the right of our people and the peoples of our free nation to confront American-Israeli aggression, and that we will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege imposed on our people and the peoples of the axis of Jihad and Resistance in Palestine, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. All enemy attempts will fail, God willing, and our operations will continue as long as the aggression and siege against us and the axis of Jihad and Resistance continue,” the statement concluded.

The Houthis have announced a “complete blockade” of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait against all vessels linked to Israel.

They also warned that any further escalation will be met with an even stronger response. pic.twitter.com/fu6UFPtD1G

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) June 8, 2026

The announcement is similar to the Houthis’ late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war.

Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

The previous disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait led to ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time, fuel, insurance costs, and higher shipping costs. The IMF has previously said that the Red Sea attacks halved Suez Canal trade in early 2024, while shipping traffic via the Cape of Good Hope surged.

Related:

• Alarming Supply-Chain Stress Sends Transport Cost Soaring, Fueling Inflation Fears

• UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

Readers were brefied in mid-April on the threat other critical straits could be disrupted. Read the note here. 

The big risk here is a simultaneous disruption of both maritime chokepoints. Bab-el-Mandeb would hit the world’s trade artery, while Hormuz has already disrupted the world’s energy artery. Combined, the clogging of both maritime chokepoints would be viewed as a major escalation, likely raising the risk of additional supply chain stress, higher freight and insurance costs, and another inflationary wave.

Before we look at the Fed, let’s take another quick look at the rollercoaster of the past trading session: a hawkish Fed repricing after the payrolls report triggered a sharp US equity sell-off on Friday with the S&P 500 falling -2.64% (2.59% on the week), its worst day of the year so far, snapping a run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Tech led the declines, not helped by Broadcom’s softer earnings earlier in the week. The NASDAQ dropped -4.18% on Friday (4.68% on the week), while the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged -10.26% – its worst day since March 2020, and dubbed the “Red Sox.”

All of this comes as tensions in the Middle East are building again with renewed strikes between Iran and Israel, despite what should be the 61st day of a truce or ceasefire. Iran targeted Israel with a missile attack yesterday after an Israeli strike in Beirut, while Israel’s military has responded with strikes against targets in Iran overnight. The IRGC warned yesterday evening that its actions would mark “a full week of continuous strikes”, but there are also signs that the sides are looking to avoid a full escalation, with Axios reporting Israel strikes were “relatively limited” in scope and Iranian state media denying that it launched a strike towards a US airbase in Saudi Arabia after a missile alert there. The de-escalatory tone appears particularly evident from the US side, with Trump reportedly urging Israel not to strike back earlier last night, telling Axios that “The Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” This and the wider quotes from Mr Trump sound like a President who really doesn’t want this war to escalate any further and is trying to find all ways to avoid it. Still, the events have further complicated the chances of an imminent deal. The key sticking points to a deal remain the release of Iran’s frozen assets, its stock of highly enriched uranium, developments in Lebanon, and how control of the Strait of Hormuz will be handled going forward.

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday’s May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday’s payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. DB economists expect energy to play a key role in May’s CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.

As BofA’s Hartnett cautions, with US CPI set to print above 4% YoY and on course for 5% by US midterms, in the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next 3 months, -7% next 6 months 

Beyond the aggregates, the composition of the CPI will be closely scrutinized. DB economists expect continued tariff related price pressures in apparel and ongoing firmness in certain information technology goods. Lagged wholesale price increases could also feed through into used car prices. On the services side, shelter inflation is likely to normalize following recent distortions, but markets will be watching carefully for any spillover from higher fuel costs into core services such as airfares, delivery services and other transport related components. Evidence of broader pass through would add to concerns about inflation persistence.

Thursday’s PPI release will be an important complement to the CPI, particularly as it informs the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Economists expect PPI to rise by around +0.5% month on month, following a strong April print. Based on current CPI assumptions and the PPI categories that feed into PCE, core PCE inflation is tracking around +0.33% in May, which would push the year on year rate up to roughly 3.4%. Key PPI components to watch include healthcare services, domestic airfares and portfolio management fees, all of which have been contributing to underlying inflation momentum.

Beyond inflation, the US data calendar is lighter but still relevant. On Friday, the University of Michigan survey will be watched for signals on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The headline sentiment index is expected to improve modestly to 48.5 from 44.8, with particular attention on whether longer term inflation expectations continue to drift higher.

Outside the US, central banks and inflation data remain the main focus, though the flow of information is more compressed. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision on Wednesday with no change expected. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, where DB economists, and everyone else, expects a 25bp rate hike (99.9% probability according to futures), lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, as policymakers continue to prioritise inflation control despite signs of softening growth. 

In the UK, April monthly GDP on Friday will be the key release, offering insight into whether growth regained traction early in the second quarter. In Germany, April factory orders (today), industrial production and trade (tomorrow) will give a read on manufacturing momentum and external demand. Inflation updates are also due for May in Denmark and Norway on Wednesday.

In Asia, the focus turns to China, with May trade data tomorrow followed by CPI and PPI on Wednesday. China’s gradual reflation is expected to continue, with PPI rising to around 3.0% year on year from 2.8% and CPI edging up to roughly 1.4% from 1.2%. Trade is also expected to remain firm, with export growth around 15% year on year and import growth staying elevated near 26%. In Japan, the highlight is May PPI on Wednesday. Futures are suggesting a 94% probability of a BoJ hike next week. DB’s economist is more hawkish than consensus and expects a hike per quarter over the next year. You can see more on this in the World Outlook. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include Oracle and Adobe.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 8

• Data: US May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan May bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, April BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany April factory orders

Tuesday June 9

• Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, April trade balance, wholesale trade sales, China May trade balance, Japan May M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, Canada April international merchandise trade
• Central banks: ECB’s Moulin speaks
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday June 10

• Data: US May CPI, federal budget balance, China May CPI, PPI, Japan May PPI, Italy April industrial production, Norway May CPI, Denmark May CPI, Sweden April GDP indicator
• Central banks: BoC decision
• Earnings: Oracle
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday June 11

• Data: US May PPI, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, Germany April current account balance, Canada April building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s decision
• Earnings: Adobe, Lennar
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday June 12

• Data: US June University of Michigan survey, UK April monthly GDP, Japan April capacity utilisation, Canada Q1 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks: ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Wednesday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting. 

Monday, June 8 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, June 9 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$57.0bn, consensus -$56.5bn, last -$60.3bn); We forecast that the trade deficit narrowed from $60.3bn to $57.0bn in April, roughly in line with consensus expectations. The forecast reflects declines in the goods trade deficit and the services trade surplus, with the latter driven by a sharp pullback in tourism services exports in April.
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.2%)

Wednesday, June 10 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (YoY), May (GS +4.17%, consensus +4.2%, last +3.8%); Core CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.79%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in May core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting unchanged used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.22% increase in the OER category and a 0.22% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +2%; hotels: +0.2%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication categories and public transportation categories outside of airfares. We estimate a 0.45% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) and sharply higher energy prices (+4.2%)—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +4.17% from +3.81%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.27% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in May. We expect a sharp increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in April, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.

Thursday, June 11 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 6 (GS 220k, consensus 219k, last 225k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 30 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,777k)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%)

Friday, June 12 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 46.0, consensus 46.5, last 44.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June preliminary (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)

Ssource: DB, Goldman

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

There has been little progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations over the past weekend. In fact, it feels like the two sides have been walking backwards as the ceasefire is faltering. 

The US and Iran are still at odds over the frozen Iranian assets, which Iran wants released as part of any deal. But, yesterday, President Trump said that he will not unfreeze any amount of Iranian assets, nor lift sanctions, immediately after a deal is closed: “If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking” about unfreezing these assets, he said.

And, if it is up to the US Treasury, there may be few assets left by the time Trump is willing to talk. The Financial Times reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent is considering using the Iranian assets to pay for the rebuilding of Gulf countries that were hit by Iranian attacks. So, we’ve now moved from “the US and Gulf countries help with the reconstruction of Iran” to “Iran pays to rebuild the Gulf countries.”

On top of that, new attacks put further pressure on the negotiations, and on the fragile ceasefire that was tacitly extended while negotiations are ongoing. US Central Command reported it took down two Iranian drones that threatened marine traffic near Hormuz, after Iran also fired missiles at Kuwait on Wednesday and at Bahrain on Friday. The US, meanwhile, has struck Iranian radar and surveillance sites.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is also still ongoing. Defence Minister Katz said the country’s air force had launched a strike on a command center in one of Beirut’s suburbs, in response to Hezbollah’s continuing attacks on Israel. 

That’s another red line for Iran, which has already retaliated overnight. This remained limited to a tokenistic firing of five missiles. Nonetheless, it’s the first time since the ceasefire that Iran directly targeted Israel. 

President Trump called on Netanyahu to refrain from further retaliation. However, this morning, the Israeli Prime Minister announced that the military had struck targets in western and central Iran – including a petrochemical facility. 

This may be more about saving faces – Netanyahu wanting to project strength in the region, and Trump trying to salvage his peace deal – than an actual split between the US and Israel. Prior to the latest attacks, Iranian negotiator Qalibaf had already stated that the US’ greenlighting of Israel’s strikes on Lebanon made US assets in the region a legitimate target.

Trump may be trying to salvage what there is to save, but can we really still talk of a ceasefire? The Houthis are now saying that they will close the Red Sea for maritime trade with Israel, effectively broadening the conflict. For now, Israel is singled out as the target, but the move adds to the risk of a broader blockade of the key passage – though Iran must know that that would certainly cause global backlash.

Unsurprisingly, energy futures are trading higher after a turbulent weekend. Brent futures are up almost 5%, to $97.50/barrel. This is spilling over into broader sentiment as well. Asian equities are down, led by a 4.3% decline in the Nikkei 225. The risk-off sentiment stacks on top of some unwinding of the AI trade last week, and concerns that a stronger US payroll report might force the Fed to tighten rather than ease. European equity futures indicate a loss of around 1.5% on the open. Likewise, rates markets are under pressure. 10y Bund yields are currently 3bp higher on the day. 

After last week’s sharp sell-off in chip stocks, the latest attempt to keep the AI bubble inflated comes from a report by The Information, which says Google has placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million Tensor Processing Units in 2028.

Google’s TPU order with Intel is a big win for the struggling chip foundry as it tries to rebuild its empire in advanced chip production and compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

The Information’s Qianer Liu writes that TSMC’s capacity constraints are turning into a boon for Intel as a backup manufacturer.

She noted that several major AI chip designers, including Nvidia, are turning to Intel as a potential backup manufacturer, but no orders from CEO Jensen Huang have been placed yet, as there is a testing phase to determine whether Intel’s technology can be used to produce advanced AI chips.

The report from The Information sent Intel shares soaring in premarket trading, up nearly 12%. Shares had plunged into a bear market over the last month and were down about 9.5% last week.

Shares of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) were up nearly 5% in premarket trading. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index plunged 10% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop since March 2020.

Among other notable movers: Nvidia +2.4%, AMD +2.8%, Micron +5.7%, Intel +2.5%, ARM +1.3%, U.S.-listed shares of TSMC +3.2%, Rambus +5.6%, Western Digital +4.3%, Marvell +8.7%, Microchip +2.9%, SanDisk +4.2%, Super Micro +5.8%, and Dell +1.5%.

Struggling meal-kit delivery company HelloFresh made a Pride Month joke in an official statement loaded with innuendo, using phrases that could easily be seen as sexualized rather than humorous. The ad only suggests the company’s marketing team still does not understand that this kind of culture-war marketing can alienate parts of its potential customer base, especially as the stock listed in Germany has crashed.

Anti-woke crusader Robby Starbuck pointed out HelloFresh’s new marketing ad, saying, “Ready for one of the most disturbing marketing campaigns you’ve ever seen?”

He continued, “HelloFresh wants you to know that they have food for you to prepare your colon for receiving anal sex during Pride Month. Yes, this is real. No sane person should use this insane company.“

Ready for one of the most disturbing marketing campaigns you’ve ever seen? @HelloFresh wants you to know that they have food for you to prepare your colon for receiving anal sex during Pride Month. Yes, this is real. No sane person should use this insane company. pic.twitter.com/R0Cy8JIOAC

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) June 7, 2026

What were those loaded phrases?

• “Eating isn’t always a top priority this month”
• “For those of you who are… prepping…”
• “High-fiber recipes”

HelloFresh’s marketing team appears to be making a wink-wink Pride Month joke: if you are “prepping” for sex, HelloFresh has high-fiber meals to help.

“If Hello Fresh wanted to alienate a good amount of their potential customer base, they did so right there. Whoever is in charge of their social media account needs to be fired,” Paul Szypula, a popular MAGA influencer, wrote on X.

If Hello Fresh wanted to alienate a good amount of their potential customer base they did so right there.

Whoever is in charge of their social media account needs to be fired.

Good grief.

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) June 7, 2026

Alienating the customer base might not be the best strategy for the struggling meal-kit company, given that shares traded in Germany have been locked in a four-and-a-half-year bear market.

… and revenue is collapsing.

Another woke marketing blunder.

Summary

• Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump’s request to ‘stop shooting’.
• Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: “No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States” (Foreign Ministry spox).
• Iran’s sprawling Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex bombed by Israeli Air Force.
• Houthis seek to close/threaten Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli-linked passage: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea.

*  *  *

Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump’s Request

Israel’s N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump’s request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:

Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump’s request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.

There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks – which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says “Without a doubt … the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies.” Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: “No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States,” Baqaei added.

Trump: ‘Stop Shooting’

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop “shooting” in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done “quickly” and is still talking up a “final” peace deal – which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here’s what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” …and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel’s further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.

BREAKING NEWS: Israel is striking targets in Iran.

The Israeli Air Force carried out heavy strikes across Iran. About 15 targets in total. pic.twitter.com/3dlaht2nm5

— Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) June 8, 2026

For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran’s armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of “harsher” attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic’s latest justification: “Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime.” And there’s a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:

“Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table… We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat.”

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran’s sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran’s energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini – a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf – the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) released color footage of strikes on an Iranian air defense system in Iran. Per the IDF release, Israel has gained relative air superiority over western and central Iran and have struck a number of air defense systems in these areas. pic.twitter.com/WjEPzqSu3H

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

IRGC: ‘Dangerous Game’

The response from Iran’s elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a “dangerous game” – openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:

The latest wave of strikes in Iran involved dozens of fighter jets targeting the regime’s strategic defense systems. pic.twitter.com/A2mBGwd9LU

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 8, 2026

With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries – or is at least appearing to – walk the two sides back from the ledge.

Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare “Total Ban” On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

“First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued.”

The statement continued, “Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance.”

The announcement is similar to the Houthis’ late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

More Headlines/Latest Developments

via Newsquawk…

WEEKEND MIDDLE EAST RECAP

• Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
• Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
• IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
• US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.

EUROPEAN MORNING IRAN CONFLICT UPDATES

• US President Trump posted “Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting.”
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
• US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel’s Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump’s request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country’s interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan’s Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
• Iran’s IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran’s IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
• An Iranian source said that “Iran is prepared for a long-term war… The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong”, Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
• Yemen’s Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
• Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
• Israel’s army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut’s Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
• Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
• Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
• Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

Brent crude futures jumped as much as 5% to $97.83 a barrel, while WTI traded around $95 a barrel, as renewed Iran-Israel fighting threatened to unravel a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and further disrupt energy flows.

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target.

“First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued,” the terror group said Monday in a statement.

The statement continued, “Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance.”

“Third: We affirm the right of our people and the peoples of our free nation to confront American-Israeli aggression, and that we will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege imposed on our people and the peoples of the axis of Jihad and Resistance in Palestine, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. All enemy attempts will fail, God willing, and our operations will continue as long as the aggression and siege against us and the axis of Jihad and Resistance continue,” the statement concluded.

The Houthis have announced a “complete blockade” of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait against all vessels linked to Israel.

They also warned that any further escalation will be met with an even stronger response. pic.twitter.com/fu6UFPtD1G

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) June 8, 2026

The announcement is similar to the Houthis’ late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war.

Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

The previous disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait led to ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time, fuel, insurance costs, and higher shipping costs. The IMF has previously said that the Red Sea attacks halved Suez Canal trade in early 2024, while shipping traffic via the Cape of Good Hope surged.

Related:

• Alarming Supply-Chain Stress Sends Transport Cost Soaring, Fueling Inflation Fears

• UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

Readers were brefied in mid-April on the threat other critical straits could be disrupted. Read the note here. 

The big risk here is a simultaneous disruption of both maritime chokepoints. Bab-el-Mandeb would hit the world’s trade artery, while Hormuz has already disrupted the world’s energy artery. Combined, the clogging of both maritime chokepoints would be viewed as a major escalation, likely raising the risk of additional supply chain stress, higher freight and insurance costs, and another inflationary wave.