Authored by Molly Schwartz, Rabobank cross-asset macro strategist,

Trading Playbooks

The advancement of one of China’s AI models, Kimi, has sharpened attention on the latest US plans to counter China’s growing AI challenge. Kimi is reportedly more powerful than several US flagship models, though not yet as powerful what lies on the frontier. However, Kimi operates at a fraction of the cost per token. That cost advantage raises the competitive threat to US AI leadership more broadly, including for other leading firms in the space, and Trump is once again taking a page out of China’s playbook by cracking down on the free market and unfettered competition. With tariffs, the US sought to limit China’s influence to bolster its own struggling manufacturing sector. Now, the more immediate question is whether Washington will do the same in an attempt to maintain its lead in the AI race…and if it will be successful.

According to Axios, “the Commerce Department last year considered adding multiple Chinese AI labs to its ‘Entity List,’ which would effectively cut off US access without a license.” The US is considering other avenues of approach as well, such as banning Chinese AI for national security reasons. But not all in the land of the free are happy with Trump’s interventionist approach to global markets. Axios reports that David Sacks said on X that “we are at a critical inflection point in AI policy,” warning that leading closed labs want the government to eliminate their open- source competition. For markets, the issue is not just who builds the best model, but whether AI becomes another front in the fragmentation of global capital, technology, and trade flows.

But protecting US AI dominance domestically may not be enough. China has made itself the manufacturing hub of the world, exporting cheap, shiny goods at a rapid pace and allowing its sphere of influence to grow throughout developing and emerging markets. As these same markets adopt the need for AI infrastructure, who are they more likely to turn to? The niche technically superior (?) and more expensive US AI models, or the cheaper Chinese alternatives that do almost as good of a job?

While the US tries to restrict China’s access to new customers in the AI market, the Houthis may be unintentionally squeezing China’s access to its existing customers in the physical goods market. The Houthis have announced that they plan to impose a sea navigation ban against the Saudis, blocking off the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which separates the Red Sea (and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal) from the Arabian Sea.

As the flow of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited under the current escalation, additional risks to the global supply chain are the last thing global economies need. Brent crude oil opened above $90/bbl yesterday—the highest price since June 11—and diesel traded around $16/bbl—the highest price since May. Additional upward pressure on oil prices because of the Houthis only further increases the fears of a supply-side-driven inflation shock and a consequential slowdown in economic activity as consumers struggle to keep up with the cost of living.

That means fewer consumers willing and able to purchase Chinese imports. A significant part of the current energy narrative, which is also informing our energy forecasts, is that China has more oil reserves than many once thought, giving China more room to wait out the war by drawing on its reserves. Therefore, yes, disruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may have little direct impact on China’s energy supply, but Xi is unlikely to welcome the pressure they put on China’s customers.

Europe, meanwhile, remains firmly behind the curve on both AI development, and the situation in the Middle East. It is, however, seeking to build its own additional barriers to global trade as Brussels tries to enforce new sanctions on Russia. But the EU’s habit of regulating itself into irrelevance is once again making an appearance, and several member states are putting up barriers of their own against Brussels. The Financial Times reports that Greece refused to sign on to the sanctions agreement, demanding a carve-out that would allow it to continue transporting Russian LNG. Austria, France, Greece, Germany, Italy, and Portugal also came to the table with their own demands. The FT cites a diplomat saying that “around the table, the moral imperative is functioning less and less. Capitals all agree on tough rhetoric and talk of solidarity, but then it all melts away.”

Over the weekend, the World Cup was able to do what the USMCA wasn’t – bring the leaders from the US, Canada, and Mexico together. Many people (mostly economists and market-types) wondered if the three would have some trilateral conversations about trade and the ambiguous status of the USMCA. An announcement from yesterday would suggest that if those conversations did happen, they didn’t go especially well for Canada.

As highlighted earlier in this article, Trump is no stranger to trading playbooks with leaders from more centrally planned economies, and tariffs have emerged as a signature tool of this Administration. Yesterday, Trump signed three proclamations to enforce additional tariffs on Canadian goods, covering motor vehicles, alcoholic beverages, and dairy. These proclamations enforce 50% tariffs across several product lines “ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement” by leveraging Section 388 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Bloomberg notes that Section 338 has never been used by a President to impose tariffs. As a major distinction from previous tariffs we have seen the Trump Administration enforce on Canadian and Mexican goods, these explicitly “apply to all covered goods regardless of whether a good originates under the USMCA.” They are currently scheduled to take effect in 30 days.

Just because proclamations are signed does not mean that these tariffs will come to fruition, or that even if they do come to fruition, they will be long-lasting. This is not the first time the Trump Administration has leveraged tariffs as a negotiating tool, and then dampened them once demands were met. Given the USTR National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, issues involving the dairy, alcohol, and vehicles were always bound to come to the forefront in the USMCA negotiations. These tariffs likely serve as an intended message to Canada that the US wants to “even out the playing field” and will not take no for an answer.

The next step is for Ottawa to negotiate with the US before these tariffs come into effect, or, forbid, try to call Washington’s bluff.

Summary

• Shipping disruption: Houthi threats forced two Saudi oil tankers to turn around in the Red Sea as Hormuz traffic slowed sharply after more tanker attacks.
• Escalation in Gulf: Iran claimed strikes on infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, while Kuwait reported a second day of attacks on power and desalination plants.
• Trump vows more to come: The US launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets, Trump vowed retaliation, and Reuters reported a proposed 10-day ceasefire. “We’ve been nice,” Trump says, warning of more attacks to come.
• Oil surges: Crude prices hit multi-week highs amid shipping disruptions, with warnings oil could reach $120 if fighting continues.
• Pentagon scrutiny: The New York Times reported the Pentagon withheld information about dozens of US troops injured in Iranian attacks before the deadly Jordan missile strike.

*  *  *

Trump Gives Wide-Ranging Comments on Iran: Doesn’t Want to Talk, “We’ve Been Nice”

President Trump issued a series of big claims to reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. For starters he asserted that Iran wants to “desperately” meet but said “we” have no interest, and that the US military is not finished at all with Iran, and so there’s no interest in talking at the moment.

And amid polls that show the war is increasingly unpopular among American voters, he stated that Iran is “probably” trying to hurt his and his Republican Party’s chances in the upcoming congressional elections in November by seeking to control Strait of Hormuz, and with the latest attacks on international shipping. “I’m just going to do the right thing,” Trump claimed, before saying that “The election, I can’t think about that having to do with this. I think people are very impressed.”

He also revisited the Obama-era JCPOA, saying if the US hadn’t “terminated the nuclear deal” then “you wouldn’t have Israel right now because they would have had a nuclear weapon years ago.“ He added that “if we didn’t do the B2 bombers knocking out the nuclear sites a year ago, one of the first things we did early in the administration, they [Iran] would have a nuclear weapon, and you wouldn’t have Israel.” Trump continued, “And in my opinion, you wouldn’t have various other countries in the Middle East [as] they would have been terminated, extinguished.”

He continued to be pressed on what the ‘plan’ and end goal is, and what the stopping and exit point might be. The president’s response:

Reporter: There are no signs that Iran is ready to stop fighting. So, what is the plan?

Trump: How would you know? How would you know if there are no signs? Why?

Why do you know something that I don’t know?

You don’t know what dialogue is taking place behind the scenes. They… pic.twitter.com/xxAObQnkuk

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 21, 2026

Another big threat and warning came when Trump declared that “Iran hasn’t seen anything yet” as “we’ve been nice” so far. Below is a quick rundown of some key statements from the fresh press interaction:

• No interest in meeting Iran until they are ready.
• Iran has very evil people leading the country.
• Our deal will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
• We’ll hit any site Iran is thinking about for nuclear.
• Iran probably trying to impact elections with Hormuz.
• Iran hasn’t seen anything yet; have been nice.
• On Pickaxe Mountain, will hit that area soon and very heavily.

Israel has meanwhile been alleging that Iran is concentrating its nuclear program at highly fortified Pickaxe Mountain. Trump in the comments suggested the US military will take direct aim at the underground complex:

Trump says the U.S. will be hitting Pickaxe mountain in Iran “pretty soon very heavily and there is nothing they can do about it”

This is nothing but a lie to continue the war. https://t.co/DCwFew6SB1

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) July 21, 2026

‘Slip through Jordan’… where American troops were killed:

Trump on Iran:

We are degrading them at levels that nobody thought was possible. They’re being degraded really seriously.

They did slip something through in Jordan. pic.twitter.com/Dprd7zOjtP

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 21, 2026

Two tankers carrying Saudi crude make U-turns in Red Sea after Houthi warning

The just-declared (as of Monday) Houthi blockade on Saudi maritime shipping has already begun to witness ill-effects, as reports emerge of two oil tankers having made U-turns while initially en route toward the Suez Canal. The reports say their crews received threats from Houthi militants in Yemen. The emerging details:

Two ⁠oil ⁠tankers which loaded Saudi crude for China ⁠and India made ⁠U-turns in the Red Sea and headed toward ‌the Suez following a warning from Yemen’s Houthi militia.

…The group, in an email sent to shipping companies, warned them not to load or discharge cargo at Saudi Arabian ports and said such activity may result in being targeted “in any location”.

Dollar and yields spiking as oil rises…. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has reached six-week highs on Tuesday.

MAP OF THE DAY: Starting to see some oil tankers either U-turning or slowing down on their approach to the Bab El-Mandeb Strait (near Yemen). First sign that the Houthi treat is having an impact — HOWEVER, many otherS are still going ahead from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea pic.twitter.com/7aYhuLz5b9

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 21, 2026

Iran state media taking note of inflicting pain…

The price of Brent crude oil has crossed the $91 per barrel mark amid rising tensions regarding US escalations in the West Asia region.

Follow: https://t.co/h0eMpifVIe pic.twitter.com/oOuuh20WMF

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) July 21, 2026

IRGC Says it Attack Amazon’s Main Data Hub in Bahrain

Amid a spate of fresh attacks on Gulf states, the IRGC claimed its cruise missiles destroyed Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain and also hit US air defense systems. Bahraini, US and Amazon officials issued no response in the immediate aftermath.

The IRGC said its Aerospace Force targeted and “destroyed” the central data infrastructure hub in Bahrain using several cruise missiles. It further stated that “US air defense systems and radar installations in the Bahraini areas of Muharraq and Riffa were also targeted” in the attack.

If accurate this highlights yet again that billions of dollars worth of infrastructure is going up in flames in the Gulf, and that defense against missiles and drones has been waning 

Kuwait Water Desalination & Power Plants Attacked for 2nd Consecutive Day

For a second consecutive day, Kuwait is reporting attacks on power-generation and water-desalination plants. The fresh assault caused fires and disrupted electricity generation, amid an emergency response and efforts begin restoring affected units. 

Further attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan are also being reported, as well as new IRGC strikes on foreign tankers seeking ‘unauthorized’ transit of the Strait of Hormuz. According to some latest via Al Jazeera:

• A desalination facility and power plants caught on fire and suffered serious damage in Kuwait after new Iranian strikes targeted the crucial facilities, along with areas of Bahrain and Jordan, following a 10th-consecutive night of US bombing.
• “Massive fires” broke out on two tankers that “took an unsafe route” in the Strait of Hormuz, says Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

On Tuesday Kuwait has confirmed it is dealing with inbound Iranian drone and missile attacks yet again, also with sirens continuing to sound in Bahrain.

Iran Seeks To Hold Hormuz Leverage ‘At All Costs’

Despite daily US saturation strikes on Iran, and in turn Iran’s daily attacks on Gulf states, nothing has really changed in what seems a stalemated situation and quagmire. 

Amin Saikal, emeritus professor at Australian National University, has described that “Both sides have really been trying to inflict heavy damage on each other, and they’ve come really to a point of saturation in many ways.” He continued, “Logically, that should really lead them to negotiation. But of course, that is not really happening at the moment simply because the United States wants to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s something the Iranians will never give up.”

Saikal called Hormuz “a reward” for Tehran, while pointing out that “Because of this unprovoked war, the Iranians have gained this leverage, and they want to retain it at all costs.”

Still, President Trump is warning that Iran will pay “many times over” for the deaths of American soldiers, and has said he gave his Pentagon leaders directives for carrying this out. 

10th Strait Day of Escalation

The tit-for-tat escalation between the US and Iran entered its tenth day as another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened shipping at a second strategic chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

US Central Command launched strikes targeting Iranian command and control centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defenses to “further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, was killed by an Iranian attack on Jordan on July 17, 2026

President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!”

Still, Pakistan and Qatar are urging both sides to return to their positions before the latest escalation began on July 9. Iran says it remains open to diplomacy but will not negotiate under attack, while the Trump team has signaled that strikes will continue until Tehran stops attacking tankers and bulk carriers in the critical waterway. Reuters reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire.

Hormuz Traffic at Near Standstill as Another Tanker Struck

Shipping flows in the Hormuz have all but slowed, according to new Bloomberg data. As of Tuesday morning, just six vessels have transited the critical waterway. The data doesn’t account for ships turning off transponders.

Bloomberg reports that Iran struck another tanker in the strait:

Visible traffic through Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend.

An oil supertanker called the Acheloos and a smaller fuel tanker were both struck in the waterway, according to Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the ships’ manager.

Early Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said that a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile in the strait northeast of Oman’s Limah, citing multiple reports, without identifying the vessel. The notice indicates a separate attack to those on the Dynacom tankers.

The flare-up in violence sent Brent crude oil futures surging in recent weeks to over $90 a barrel, with Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warning on Monday that oil prices could rally to $120 if there is no de-escalation.

“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,” Struyven said in a note to clients.

Related:

• “We’ve Burned Through All Buffers”: Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes

US Consumers Feeling the Pinch

Meanwhile, US consumers are feeling the pinch again at the pump, with the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline topping $4 a gallon once more. This is the politically sensitive line in the sand at which the Trump administration takes notice and consumer behavior begins to shift down at convenience stores, gas stations, and QSRs (quick-service restaurants).

Pattern of Pentagon Concealing US Casualties: NYT

The New York Times reported Monday that the Pentagon withheld information that US troops had been injured in Iranian attacks on Jordan in the week before the missile strikes that killed at least two US soldiers and left one missing.

“Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters,” the report says. “But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted.”

The slain soldiers in Jordan were reportedly staying in flimsy prefabricated housing at the time of the deadly ballistic missile attack. US officials described a situation that suggests American forces were essentially sitting ducks, and that not enough has been done to protect the Pentagon’s Mideast bases.

NYT painted a picture of a US admin pattern of concealing the true extent of American casualties. “In statements after airstrikes against Iranian military sites last week, U.S. Central Command said it was retaliating for Iran’s attacks against commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, never mentioning Iran’s strikes on bases in the region, including in Jordan,” it noted.

Overnight Headlines

courtesy of Bloomberg…

US-Iran Tit-For-Tat

• The US and Iran have exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day, with US Central Command targeting Iranian military command centers, launch sites, maritime capabilities, and air defenses.
• Iran has retaliated by attacking US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan.
• Trump vowed Tehran “will pay” after Iran killed three US soldiers.
• According to the Washington Post, US intelligence reports suggest US strikes are unlikely to move Iran.
• Iran’s Khorramabad area in Lorestan Province was attacked earlier today.

Diplomacy & Ceasefire Efforts

• Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage a collapsed interim deal.
• Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the US to revive the interim deal, according to an unidentified senior Iranian official cited by Reuters.
• Iran’s president said communication with Supreme Leader Khamenei has increased, per Tasnim reports.

Regional Risks

• The Kaifan, an oil-products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz northeast of Oman’s Limah.
• The Houthi militant group in Yemen is threatening to blockade Saudi Arabia and target shipping in the Red Sea, adding to regional maritime risks.
• Southeast Asian nations expressed “serious concern” over the conflict, warning of spillover effects on regional trade, food security, and energy markets.

Energy & Market Impact

• Goldman Sachs says Brent crude could top $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, though its base case remains $80 per barrel assuming de-escalation.
• European natural gas futures extended gains, surging more than 20% over the previous seven sessions, as the conflict tightens supply ahead of winter.
• Pakistan and Bangladesh were forced to buy some of their most expensive LNG shipments in years due to supply disruptions from the conflict. Pakistan LNG paid about $21.88 per MMBtu, its highest since 2022, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.

Summary

• Shipping disruption: Houthi threats forced two Saudi oil tankers to turn around in the Red Sea as Hormuz traffic slowed sharply after more tanker attacks.
• Escalation in Gulf: Iran claimed strikes on infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, while Kuwait reported a second day of attacks on power and desalination plants.
• Trump vows more to come: The US launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets, Trump vowed retaliation, and Reuters reported a proposed 10-day ceasefire.
• Oil surges: Crude prices hit multi-week highs amid shipping disruptions, with warnings oil could reach $120 if fighting continues.
• Pentagon scrutiny: The New York Times reported the Pentagon withheld information about dozens of US troops injured in Iranian attacks before the deadly Jordan missile strike.

Two tankers carrying Saudi crude make U-turns in Red Sea after Houthi warning

The just-declared (as of Monday) Houthi blockade on Saudi maritime shipping has already begun to witness ill-effects, as reports emerge of two oil tankers having made U-turns while initially en route toward the Suez Canal. The reports say their crews received threats from Houthi militants in Yemen. The emerging details:

Two ⁠oil ⁠tankers which loaded Saudi crude for China ⁠and India made ⁠U-turns in the Red Sea and headed toward ‌the Suez following a warning from Yemen’s Houthi militia.

…The group, in an email sent to shipping companies, warned them not to load or discharge cargo at Saudi Arabian ports and said such activity may result in being targeted “in any location”.

Dollar and yields spiking as oil rises…. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has reached six-week highs on Tuesday.

MAP OF THE DAY: Starting to see some oil tankers either U-turning or slowing down on their approach to the Bab El-Mandeb Strait (near Yemen). First sign that the Houthi treat is having an impact — HOWEVER, many otherS are still going ahead from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea pic.twitter.com/7aYhuLz5b9

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 21, 2026

Iran state media taking note of inflicting pain…

The price of Brent crude oil has crossed the $91 per barrel mark amid rising tensions regarding US escalations in the West Asia region.

Follow: https://t.co/h0eMpifVIe pic.twitter.com/oOuuh20WMF

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) July 21, 2026

IRGC Says it Attack Amazon’s Main Data Hub in Bahrain

Amid a spate of fresh attacks on Gulf states, the IRGC claimed its cruise missiles destroyed Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain and also hit US air defense systems. Bahraini, US and Amazon officials issued no response in the immediate aftermath.

The IRGC said its Aerospace Force targeted and “destroyed” the central data infrastructure hub in Bahrain using several cruise missiles. It further stated that “US air defense systems and radar installations in the Bahraini areas of Muharraq and Riffa were also targeted” in the attack.

If accurate this highlights yet again that billions of dollars worth of infrastructure is going up in flames in the Gulf, and that defense against missiles and drones has been waning 

Kuwait Water Desalination & Power Plants Attacked for 2nd Consecutive Day

For a second consecutive day, Kuwait is reporting attacks on power-generation and water-desalination plants. The fresh assault caused fires and disrupted electricity generation, amid an emergency response and efforts begin restoring affected units. 

Further attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan are also being reported, as well as new IRGC strikes on foreign tankers seeking ‘unauthorized’ transit of the Strait of Hormuz. According to some latest via Al Jazeera:

• A desalination facility and power plants caught on fire and suffered serious damage in Kuwait after new Iranian strikes targeted the crucial facilities, along with areas of Bahrain and Jordan, following a 10th-consecutive night of US bombing.
• “Massive fires” broke out on two tankers that “took an unsafe route” in the Strait of Hormuz, says Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

On Tuesday Kuwait has confirmed it is dealing with inbound Iranian drone and missile attacks yet again, also with sirens continuing to sound in Bahrain.

Iran Seeks To Hold Hormuz Leverage ‘At All Costs’

Despite daily US saturation strikes on Iran, and in turn Iran’s daily attacks on Gulf states, nothing has really changed in what seems a stalemated situation and quagmire. 

Amin Saikal, emeritus professor at Australian National University, has described that “Both sides have really been trying to inflict heavy damage on each other, and they’ve come really to a point of saturation in many ways.” He continued, “Logically, that should really lead them to negotiation. But of course, that is not really happening at the moment simply because the United States wants to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s something the Iranians will never give up.”

Saikal called Hormuz “a reward” for Tehran, while pointing out that “Because of this unprovoked war, the Iranians have gained this leverage, and they want to retain it at all costs.”

Still, President Trump is warning that Iran will pay “many times over” for the deaths of American soldiers, and has said he gave his Pentagon leaders directives for carrying this out. 

10th Strait Day of Escalation

The tit-for-tat escalation between the US and Iran entered its tenth day as another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened shipping at a second strategic chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

US Central Command launched strikes targeting Iranian command and control centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defenses to “further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, was killed by an Iranian attack on Jordan on July 17, 2026

President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!”

Still, Pakistan and Qatar are urging both sides to return to their positions before the latest escalation began on July 9. Iran says it remains open to diplomacy but will not negotiate under attack, while the Trump team has signaled that strikes will continue until Tehran stops attacking tankers and bulk carriers in the critical waterway. Reuters reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire.

Hormuz Traffic at Near Standstill as Another Tanker Struck

Shipping flows in the Hormuz have all but slowed, according to new Bloomberg data. As of Tuesday morning, just six vessels have transited the critical waterway. The data doesn’t account for ships turning off transponders.

Bloomberg reports that Iran struck another tanker in the strait:

Visible traffic through Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend.

An oil supertanker called the Acheloos and a smaller fuel tanker were both struck in the waterway, according to Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the ships’ manager.

Early Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said that a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile in the strait northeast of Oman’s Limah, citing multiple reports, without identifying the vessel. The notice indicates a separate attack to those on the Dynacom tankers.

The flare-up in violence sent Brent crude oil futures surging in recent weeks to over $90 a barrel, with Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warning on Monday that oil prices could rally to $120 if there is no de-escalation.

“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,” Struyven said in a note to clients.

Related:

• “We’ve Burned Through All Buffers”: Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes

US Consumers Feeling the Pinch

Meanwhile, US consumers are feeling the pinch again at the pump, with the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline topping $4 a gallon once more. This is the politically sensitive line in the sand at which the Trump administration takes notice and consumer behavior begins to shift down at convenience stores, gas stations, and QSRs (quick-service restaurants).

Pattern of Pentagon Concealing US Casualties: NYT

The New York Times reported Monday that the Pentagon withheld information that US troops had been injured in Iranian attacks on Jordan in the week before the missile strikes that killed at least two US soldiers and left one missing.

“Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters,” the report says. “But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted.”

The slain soldiers in Jordan were reportedly staying in flimsy prefabricated housing at the time of the deadly ballistic missile attack. US officials described a situation that suggests American forces were essentially sitting ducks, and that not enough has been done to protect the Pentagon’s Mideast bases.

NYT painted a picture of a US admin pattern of concealing the true extent of American casualties. “In statements after airstrikes against Iranian military sites last week, U.S. Central Command said it was retaliating for Iran’s attacks against commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, never mentioning Iran’s strikes on bases in the region, including in Jordan,” it noted.

Overnight Headlines

courtesy of Bloomberg…

US-Iran Tit-For-Tat

• The US and Iran have exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day, with US Central Command targeting Iranian military command centers, launch sites, maritime capabilities, and air defenses.
• Iran has retaliated by attacking US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan.
• Trump vowed Tehran “will pay” after Iran killed three US soldiers.
• According to the Washington Post, US intelligence reports suggest US strikes are unlikely to move Iran.
• Iran’s Khorramabad area in Lorestan Province was attacked earlier today.

Diplomacy & Ceasefire Efforts

• Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage a collapsed interim deal.
• Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the US to revive the interim deal, according to an unidentified senior Iranian official cited by Reuters.
• Iran’s president said communication with Supreme Leader Khamenei has increased, per Tasnim reports.

Regional Risks

• The Kaifan, an oil-products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz northeast of Oman’s Limah.
• The Houthi militant group in Yemen is threatening to blockade Saudi Arabia and target shipping in the Red Sea, adding to regional maritime risks.
• Southeast Asian nations expressed “serious concern” over the conflict, warning of spillover effects on regional trade, food security, and energy markets.

Energy & Market Impact

• Goldman Sachs says Brent crude could top $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, though its base case remains $80 per barrel assuming de-escalation.
• European natural gas futures extended gains, surging more than 20% over the previous seven sessions, as the conflict tightens supply ahead of winter.
• Pakistan and Bangladesh were forced to buy some of their most expensive LNG shipments in years due to supply disruptions from the conflict. Pakistan LNG paid about $21.88 per MMBtu, its highest since 2022, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Border Patrol released zero illegal immigrants into the United States from the southern border for the 14th consecutive month in June.

Border enforcement is at “historic levels,” and illegal crossings last month remained significantly low, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a July 16 statement. Border Patrol apprehended 9,848 people at the southwest border last month, 94 percent lower than the monthly average under the previous administration. It was also lower than the number of people “apprehended in 4 days” in June 2024.

“As I have said many times, leadership and policy matter. When laws are enforced, fewer people will break the law. Under the leadership of President [Donald] Trump and [Homeland Security] Secretary [Markwayne] Mullin, CBP is fully enforcing our immigration and border security laws,” CBP Commissioner Rodney S. Scott said in the statement.

“CBP is preventing dangerous criminal aliens and illicit narcotics from entering our communities, enhancing the safety of every American for generations to come.”

Last month, the Border Patrol received a funding boost for its anti-illegal immigration efforts when Trump signed the Secure America Act into law. The legislation provides $70 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol through Sept. 30, 2029, beyond Trump’s current term.

The bill allocated $22 billion for Border Patrol to recruit, train, equip, and pay agents and staff members. Out of the $22 billion, about $13 billion was specifically set aside for immigration enforcement operations. The legislation also granted $5 billion to be used for border security technology and screening systems.

After the bill was passed by the House on June 9, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) justified the legislation, saying Democrats will not be able to defund Border Patrol and ICE for the next few years. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said the bill supported law enforcement in the country.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) criticized the funding as a “disastrous bill” to bankroll ICE and Border Patrol, according to a June 12 statement from Duckworth’s office.

“There are an infinite number of ways we could be working to help Illinoisans get by, and it’s despicable that Trump would rather bankroll ICE and Border Patrol’s reign of terror than keep his promise and lower costs for the middle class,” Duckworth said in the statement.

2025–2029 Strategy

As the CBP counters the influx of illegal immigrants into the United States, the agency has reported strong growth in its Border Patrol workforce.

In a June 24 statement, CBP said that 21,471 Border Patrol agents were serving on America’s front lines—the highest employee count in the agency’s 102-year history.

CBP credited investments from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by Trump last year, for fueling “increased applicant interest” and enabling the agency to attract top talent.

CBP said in a July 16 statement that it was filling in mission-critical roles in law enforcement and mission operations support positions at various locations throughout the United States, and it stated that it planned to conduct a virtual event on July 23 to highlight the career opportunities open to military spouses and veterans.

“CBP is an extremely welcoming employer for veterans and military spouses,” CBP Office of Human Resources Management Assistant Commissioner Andrea Bright said in the statement.

According to the 2025–2029 Border Patrol Strategy, the agency aims to counter illegal immigrant influx by expanding physical infrastructure, such as wall barriers, checkpoints, and permanent towers, in all regions of the country.

The agency seeks to deploy advanced autonomous surveillance systems as part of enhancing its detection and identification capabilities. Moreover, Border Patrol plans to proactively forecast high-risk crossing patterns and “strategically position resources to disrupt and deter illicit activities.”

Novo Nordisk wrote in a press release that it is suing GLP-1 rival Eli Lilly in federal court in New Jersey, alleging nationwide “deceptive advertising” for Zepbound and Mounjaro. The company claims Lilly misleads consumers by comparing Lilly’s highest doses with lower doses of Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic.

Novo claims Lilly’s Zepbound advertising campaign relies on outdated studies that exclude the 7.2-milligram dose of Wegovy, approved in March 2026, which produced an average weight loss of about 19%. Novo also stated that there has been no head-to-head trial comparing the highest approved doses of the two drugs.

“A lawsuit, filed today in federal court, challenges a nationwide pattern of deceptive advertising which confuses consumers by using outdated studies to compare the highest injectable doses of Lilly’s medicines against lower doses of Novo Nordisk’s injectable medicines for obesity and type 2 diabetes,” Novo wrote in the release.

What Novo seeks:

Through this action, Novo Nordisk is seeking a permanent injunction requiring Lilly to pull its misleading comparative advertising across all platforms and to conduct a corrective advertising campaign. We have also communicated to Lilly that if they do not voluntarily pull these ads, Novo Nordisk intends to file a formal motion with the Court in the coming days seeking a preliminary injunction to immediately block them, with evidence that consumers are being confused and misled by Lilly’s ads.

The lawsuit comes as Novo and Lilly battle for share of a global GLP-1 market projected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Novo entered the obesity market first with Wegovy, but Lilly has since overtaken its rival with Zepbound and now leads in sales.

The divergence is reflected in their share prices: Novo’s stock is flat this year and trading at lows last seen in 2021, while Lilly is at record highs.

Novo is pursuing a turnaround under its new CEO, expanding partnerships with telehealth companies and rolling out a new oral weight-loss drug. Will that be enough to reverse the stock?

US stock futures are higher led by Tech after a strong bounce in chip stocks in Japan (memory stock Kioxia traded limit up after trading limit down on Friday and Monday was a holiday) and Korea, as evidence mounts that Momentum / Semis pullback have bottomed, with supportive price action elsewhere in Asia and Europe, though the JPM EU Trading Desk is not yet seeing follow-through buying in Semis.  As of 7:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher, lagging the 1.4% bounce in Nasdaq futures helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes, although it is unclear if the early ramp will persist amid the re-escalating war with Iran which overnight saw Houthis impose a blocakde on Saudi Arabia. In premarket trading, most Mag 7 names are higher with semis leading (SOXX +4%). Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with both Staples and HC net lower and AI boosting Industrials and Utils. WTI crude is trading near its highs, boosting Energy as all 3 commodity complexes move higher with silver the standout which has traded in tandem with the AI theme. The yield curve is twisting steeper with yields ranging from -1bp to +1bp with USD flat. Today’s macro focus is on the weekly ADP number and regional Fed activity.  US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading, chipmakers and other AI-related firms rebound after the sector suffered some recent weakness. Movers include Intel (INTC +5.5%), Sandisk (SNDK +8.1%), Micron (MU +6.8%), CoreWeave (CRWV +3.8%), GE Vernova (GEV +2.5%) as the entire trillion-dollar sector continues to trade like a rabid pennystock.

• Tesla and Nvidia are leading Magnificent 7 stocks higher during the AI rebound (Tesla +1.2%, Nvidia +1.1%, Alphabet +1%, Meta +0.4%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.7%).

In corporate news, BlackRock’s coming debt sale of more than $12 billion for a Meta Platforms data center is the result of years spent transforming a public investments giant into a heavy hitter in private markets too.

• The Paramount-Warner deal, paused Monday by a federal judge, faces a legal hurdle that risks putting the deal on hold for months at a cost that could quickly climb to billions of dollars.
• Nike’s soccer boss said the World Cup ending “was not what we dreamed,” as Spain and Argentina — both Adidas teams — faced off in the final after beating Nike-clad teams in the semifinals.

Chipmakers are leading the gains in premarket trading, along with associated memory storage and semiconductor equipment names, helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes. Tech was also buoyed by upbeat Taiwan and South Korean export data, supportive Wall Street commentary (virtually every bank is begging for a momentum bounce knowing well that if one doesn’t come it will get very ugly) and an absence of new geopolitical flashpoints. Even so, nagging worries about margin debt and inflation loom for the AI trade.  To wit, according to the trading desk at UBS, the sharp selloff in momentum stocks may be nearing its end, creating an opportunity for investors to start rebuilding positions in AI and semiconductor shares.

“While volatility is likely to remain high given the elevated concentration still present in parts of the market, the correction has been both deep and lengthy enough to alleviate some valuation concerns,” said Santiago Mateo Yanguas, head of equity at CaixaBank AM.

South Korea’s exports data adds further support for chips, with semiconductor exports climbing by a perfectly sustainable about 181% YoY for the first 20 days of July. Taiwan’s June export orders from the US rose nearly 84% year-on-year, the fastest pace on record. Whether the AI rally can extend will depend heavily on the reporting season and, as Bloomberg highlights, the biggest concern is leverage with US margin debt rising 49% year-on-year in June to a record high. AI capex “has stretched hyperscalers to the edge of acceptable investor limits,” notes JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke. 

Others were more bearish: equity investors should look to reduce some exposure after this earnings season, according to HSBC’s Max Kettner, who warns that stretched sentiment, a fading fiscal impulse, and US midterm election uncertainty could trigger a pullback. 

TSMC is set to raise prices for advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027 to reflect rising costs, Nikkei Asia reports. It follows a report last week of ASML raising prices for its equipment, for which TSMC is ASML’s largest customer. While price increases underpin the demand story, it will stoke concerns of inflationary pressures and traders will be on watch for corporate margin hits from memory costs during this earnings season.

Focus will soon shift to the start of the reporting season for Big Tech firms, where AI hyperscalers will update investors on their capital spending plans. Alphabet Inc. reports on Wednesday, while Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are due next week. “The next test is no longer whether AI demand exists, but whether pricing, margins and cash flow can justify the capex bill,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “If they can, the rebound should broaden. Otherwise, volatility remains the regime.”

A question that investors are asking themselves is whether now is the time to sell chips and rotate toward hyperscalers, which have underperformed semiconductors this year, according to Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management in Paris. “Our view is that one needs to be invested in both,” Drabowicz said. “Alphabet’s earnings this week will be a real bellwether for the industry and its capacity to monetize AI. We believe the market underestimates how fast these companies will be able to monetize.”

Global trade faces a fresh headache as the Panama Canal moves to curtail some vessel-booking slots because of water-supply challenges. Overnight, the Trump admin vowed to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over what it said was unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy. 

In politics, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to testify before lawmakers to defend the Trump administration’s request for billions of dollars in additional money for the Iran war. Trump met with a pair of key Republican senators on Monday evening to discuss a path forward on legislation that would override state laws on AI.  A federal appeals court denied Joe Biden’s request for a temporary block to stop the Justice Department from turning over tapes and transcripts to the Heritage Foundation. Seperately, the DOJ has launched a new investigation into Harvard University, alleging that some of its financial aid programs violate civil rights law by excluding American citizens. 

European stocks are up too, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2%, also being led by the technology sector. After two days in the red, as gains in the technology sector and a slew of robust earnings counter news about the continuing US-Iran clashes.  Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Mitie Group shares surge as much as 42% after agreeing to a takeover by OCS Group at a big premium to Monday’s close. The facility management company’s shares remain below the offer price
• Babcock rises as much as 8.3%, leading gains amoung European defense stocks on Tuesday after the UK’s new prime minister Andy Burnham told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that John Healey’s appointment as Chancellor was a “signal of his intent” on defense
• Var Energi shares gain as much as 5.9% and BlueNord rises as much as 6.7% after the former made a $1.3 billion offer to acquire the latter; Var Energi also reported 2Q results and reaffirmed its production forecast
• Bossard shares jump as much as 11%, hitting their highest level since October 2024, after first-half results from the maker of fastening devices beat expectations, which analysts said provides better visibility on the full-year outlook
• Genuit Group gains as much as 3.2% after analysts at Stifel initiated coverage on the maker of plastic piping systems with a buy rating and said they see an inflection point coming, driven by regulatory and structural drivers
• Basic resources stocks gained the most in the Stoxx 600 index as copper headed for its highest close since mid-June on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten. Gold touched its highest level in a week on dip-buying
• Boliden drops as much as 7.6%, to the lowest since May 5, after the mining company delivered revenue and operating profit below expectations in the second quarter, along with negative free cash flow
• Wartsila shares drop as much as 4.6% as JPMorgan flags the company lowering its demand outlook for the Energy division. That’s overshadowing the company’s strong beat on orders in the second quarter
• Schindler shares fall as much as 6.1%, the most in five months, after second-quarter revenues missed estimates, offsetting a better-than-expected margin performance
• Julius Baer shares declined as much as 5.3% as beats on net income and assets under management were overshadowed by the lack of update on a regulatory review and any subsequent share buybacks
• Jungheinrich shares drop as much as 5.5% after Germany’s financial regulator BaFin opened an accounting review on whether the company breached financial-reporting rules in connection with the planned sale of the company’s Russian business

Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions as investors rush back into chip stocks after a recent rout.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.3%, the most since July 15, led by TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. South Korea and Taiwan led the gains in the region, with most other markets also climbing higher as investor sentiment improves. Taiex’s 3.6% rise was the most in three weeks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.7% after slipping into correction territory on Friday. While investors continue to debate whether AI spending is justified, the recent tech selloff has drawn some back to hunt for bargains. Several megacap earnings due later this week, including Tesla and Alphabet Inc., will shed further light on whether the AI-driven rally can regain momentum. “The market has already undergone a fairly substantial correction,” said Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities. “At the same time, corporate earnings have held up reasonably well and have proved more resilient than expected.”

In FX, the dollar is fluctuating, albeit in a narrow range. The yen is lagging, while the Norwegian krone and Aussie dollar are stronger.

In rates, treasury yields are little changed in early US trading with the yield curve steeper, tracking similar price action across most developed sovereign bond markets, with oil prices and stock index futures higher inside Monday’s ranges. Tiny overnight yield ranges included less than 2bp for 10-year. US session has no major calendar events. Yields across tenors remain within about a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, the 10-year just under 4.60%. Treasury futures volumes through 7am New York time were 60% to 90% of 20-day average level.  IG credit new-issue calendar includes is blank so far, but at least one potential borrower stood down Monday as three issuers raised a combined $4.5 billion, and may return. Treasury coupon auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year reopening Wednesday and $21 billion 10-year TIPS new issue Thursday. Germany is underperforming at the long end in Europe. UK government bonds ticked higher as investors awaited fresh policy details from new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Weak economic data dimmed bets on higher interest rates. 

In commodities, oil prices have been mostly lower for the session so far and Brent is sitting a little short of $89/barrel, while gold has come off its high but is still in the green and above $4,000/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable endgames: Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran’s capitulation. Axios
• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. CNBC
• China is mounting one of its broadest efforts in years to steady the stock market, with regulators, state-backed investors, insurers and asset managers all moving to shore up confidence after a selloff in tech shares. BBG
• China’s cabinet pledged to ensure the country will meet its full-year economic goal and to forge ahead with implementing policies, after growth slipped below the official target range in the second quarter. BBG
• Chinese regulators are considering tightening export controls on artificial intelligence and semiconductor technologies, as the US-China rivalry intensifies in cutting-edge AI. FT
• The US vowed to impose a new 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, citing unfair treatment of American products. The levies would apply to items including milk and beer but exempt energy, potash and critical minerals. BBG
• London Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/5 trading venue to support digital, algorithmic and agentic trading. It’ll operate separately from LSE’s Main Market, with ETPs set to debut next year. BBG
• OpenAI and Anthropic executives are sounding the alarm about the rise of cheap AI, particularly powerful new models produced in China, suggesting they will lead to a “dystopian” AI future and present unacceptable security risks without regulation. WSJ
• The cost of protecting Oracle Corp.’s debt against default reached a fresh multi-year high on Monday while its existing bonds sold off, as doubts grew over whether the company’s massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off. BBG
• US President Trump signed an order to identify and fix potential national security vulnerabilities by requiring defence contractors to screen their supply chains, aiming to stop weapons makers from working with certain foreign suppliers including China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from the US, where most major indices declined as oil prices and yields climbed amid the ongoing geopolitical backdrop, although the Nasdaq showed some resilience amid a bounce in tech and telecommunications. ASX 200 lacked firm direction with price action contained within relatively tight parameters in the absence of notable data or key macro drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied on return from the long weekend, with some bargain-hunting after last Friday’s slump. KOSPI shrugged off earlier indecision and rallied amid a tech rebound, with notable strength seen in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound as they took a breather after rallying yesterday amid stimulus hopes and China’s “national team” buying close to USD 9bln in equities.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s Cabinet approved an economic framework policy document including fiscal plan, which cites BoJ autonomy and lacked sales tax decisions.
• Japan is reportedly to relax rules surrounding bank lending for M&A and incentivise pension funds to invest more in alternative assets.
• New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.9%).
• New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4% (Prev. 3.1%).
• South Korea July 1st-20th Exports rose 52.3% Y/Y, Imports rose 20.0% Y/Y and Trade Balance is at a provisional surplus of USD 12.2bln.
• Taiwan Export Orders (Jun) Y/Y 59.4% (exp. 47.3%).

european bourses are mixed and ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Tentative action which is encapsulated by the tumultuous geopolitical environment and a number of earnings from within the region. European sectors hold a slight negative bias. Tech outperforms followed by Basic Resources, whilst Optimised Personal Care and Media reside at the bottom of the pile. The Tech sector continues to bounce back from recent losses, following a similar theme seen in the APAC session, where the KOSPI gained c. 3.5%.

Top European News

• UK government to remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme, as part of new tax cut measures.
• UK PM Burnham reportedly to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20% within days, Huffington Post reported. Additionally, a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled as soon as Wednesday.
• Worldpanel announced grocery inflation and sales (w/e 12th July): Grocery Inflation 2.6% (prev. 3%).

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck. Antipodeans lead after a hotter-than-expected NZ CPI; JPY underperforms after the Japanese cabinet excluded a sales tax decision from its fiscal plan.
• DXY is a touch lower today, with oil prices softer but lacking direction as we await further geopolitical updates. Overnight, Axios reported that senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trump’s options were to either promote a new 10-day ceasefire or launch a full-scale war on Iran. Elsewhere, Fox reported Trump will decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran. ING opines USD risks remain to the upside, given the aforementioned factors. Given the above, focus remains on incoming Gulf newsflow with a light calendar ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. DXY remains below the 21DMA at 100.05, currently between 100.90 and 101.
• GBP in focus today after UK PM Burnham appointed former Defence Minister Healey as Chancellor (see 09:50 analysis for more detail). Elsewhere, UK jobs saw the unemployment rate remain steady at 4.9%, whilst the Employment Change topped expectations, while the wages components were flat/very slightly firmer. Overall, a report which will have little impact on the BoE, ahead of CPI on Wednesday and Flash PMIs on Friday. GBP takes a breather just above 1.3420 in Cable, and a little weaker just above 0.85 in the EUR cross.
• JPY is on a weaker footing despite the aforementioned subdued Dollar and softer oil prices. Overnight, Japan’s Cabinet approved the economic framework policy document, including a fiscal plan, which cited BoJ autonomy but lacked a sales tax decision. Amid the uncertainty given the lack of a funding plan, USD/JPY resides towards the upper end of a 162.43-162.70 range.
• Antipodeans hold on to the spoils of the prior day’s outperformance, with Aussie propped up by firmer metals whilst the Kiwi is leading after firmer-than-expected New Zealand CPI data. AUD/NZD is a modest touch lower, Aussie and Kiwi both +0.4% against the Buck.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks trade range-bound, in line with energy prices, despite the risk-on tone seen across the equity space. Equities seem to enjoy the reporting around a possible 10-day ceasefire, with recent reporting hinting that the US is demanding a longer ceasefire.
• Gilts (+1 tick) trade higher, despite the announcement of former Defence Secretary Healey as Chancellor. Thus far, gilts have taken this as fairly positive, possibly taking comfort in the fact that he used to work in the Treasury in past governments. In terms of Burnham’s policy, Bloomberg reported that the UK government will remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme. There have been contradictory reports over whether this measure will be fully funded. The Times reported that this will be fully funded; however, the OBR said the GBP 1.8bln figure for the ID scheme was unfunded, while former UK minister Jones suggested that Burnham’s cut is also unfunded. More recently, the Huffington Post reported that Burnham is to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20%, while a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled soon.
• On the data front, the ONS released its May employment report; employment change 147k (exp. 85k, prev. 100k), unemployment change 4.9% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). Despite the strong labour report, gilts have failed to react, given the focus on politics.
• Bunds (-10 ticks) rotate in a 124.59-124.81 range. Focusing on the short-end, the yield currently trades outside of the 2.52-2.76% range, driven by the recent leg higher in energy prices. Brent has recently returned above the USD 90/bbl mark, resurfacing worries of an energy pass-through into inflation. ING says that rates can take a hawkish view, with the 2yr euro swap rate touching 3%, because the EZ growth picture continues to recover. Additionally, implied bond volatility is at lower levels, compared to the early stages of the Middle East conflict.
• USTs (+1 tick) lack direction given the quiet docket this week, heading into the Fed policy announcement next week.
• Germany sells EUR 4.553bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%.
• The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.463% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).

Commodities

• Geopolitics remain fluid with constructive and escalatory updates on the US-Iran front. On the former, a 10-day ceasefire proposal was pitched, while Iran confirmed ongoing mediation talks, which keeps alive the possibility of a return to the June interim MoU. On the other hand, last night was the 10th consecutive day of US airstrikes, whilst Iran continues targeting the region and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. US President Trump is expected to decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran and return to full-scale combat, a senior US official told Fox News. Meanwhile, senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trump only has two realistic options: either promoting a new 10-day ceasefire with the aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or launching a full-scale war on Iran, Axios reported. Further, a US official said if US President Trump decides to expand the war, the strikes will include Tehran and nuclear sites, according to Al Arabiya.
• Crude oil futures are trading subdued as market participants weigh emerging diplomatic de-escalation signals against ongoing military exchanges in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell to the bottom end of a USD 88.08-89.45/bbl range while WTI similarly waned to the lower end of a USD 81.64-83.05/bbl range. Also on the supply side, NHC reported that Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened, situated right in the Gulf of Mexico. Dutch TTF bucks the trend and has edged higher, back above the EUR 59.23/MWh mark, in the European morning, with analysts suggesting gas will be impacted more by the Middle East situation.
• Precious metals are on a firmer footing as the Dollar and inflation expectations ease with oil prices. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,999/oz to USD 4,084/oz range. Spot silver surges 4.5% at the time of writing as it rises above USD 59/oz vs Friday’s 54.77/oz base.
• Base metals also cheer the pullback in the Dollar alongside expectations of Chinese stimulus following recent weak economic data. 3M LME copper is firmer by 1.5% at the time of writing and towards the upper end of a USD 13,603.73- 13,840.00/t range.
• UAE’s ADNOC has approved a USD 6.2bln project to boost natgas production, Bloomberg reported.
• Goldman Sachs said Brent may rise above USD 120/bbl in FY26 Q4 if Hormuz remains disrupted.

Trade/Tariffs

• The US is imposing an additional 50% tariff on certain products of Canada including some USMCA products, to counter Canadian bias against US commerce with respect to alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles. In response, Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to engage intensively to address issues with the US and said we’re ready to talk with the US about modernising the USMCA. Additionally, the Ontario Premier said that Canada should impose retaliatory tariffs against the US.
• China is weighing tighter export controls on AI models and chips, according to FT.

Central banks

• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jul): Euro area banks reported a moderate net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises in Q2’26.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• It was Iran which proposed the 10-day ceasefire, i24’s Stein reported, citing sources. The US said to be demanding a longer ceasefire and demanding even partial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. The goal of these 10 days, according to the two sources, is to find a solution for the Strait of Hormuz. The mediators conveyed the proposal to the US and even added additional components to it during the talks they held with Washington and Tehran so that it would be between the territory controlled by Oman and the territory controlled by Iran and through which ships could pass.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they will continue to attack Iran and are ensuring the flow of oil, gas and other products through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Iran’s cooperation. Wright said they continue to undermine Iran’s offensive military capabilities and that President Trump wants to end the conflict with a peace deal, but this will require cooperation from both sides.
• US CENTCOM announced another round of strikes against Iran in which US forces struck Iranian military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defence systems to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking vessels.
• US airstrikes targeted the centre of Isfahan city and several explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Chabahar, Konarak and Shiraz, while air defence systems were activated near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant.
• US likely does not have enough munitions to sustain a prolonged all-out war with Iran — which is already adapting to bypass US defence systems in its attacks across the region, according to an expert cited by The New York Post
• Iran claimed a strike on a US military data centre in Bahrain and stated that US radar and defence systems in Bahrain were destroyed. Iran also targeted US military facilities at Kuwait’s Ahmad Al-Jaber base, US missile systems at Kuwait’s Arifjan base, while explosions were reported in the Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait. Additionally, a central data infrastructure of Amazon (AMZN) in Bahrain was attacked by several cruise missiles.
• More recently, there have been reports of sirens in Qatar while explosions were heard in Jordan.
• IRGC said two tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while the UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 8NM northeast of Oman’s Limah and later announced the crew had abandoned the ship.
• Yemeni Houthi commander said Saudi Arabia faces two options: either lift the blockade and stop its intervention or continue escalating, which will cost it a lot, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said “the State of Israel has no interest in joining the conflict between Iran and the US – the current situation is the best for us”, Ynet reported.
• Israel conducted artillery strikes on southern Lebanon, while it stated that the programme of pilot zones in southern Lebanon began on Monday, which was carried out in cooperation with US military and Lebanese armed forces. Furthermore, it will respond forcefully to any violation of the agreement.
• The Lebanese army entered Zawtar al-Gharbiya as part of the first phase of the pilot zones, Al Hadath reported, while Israeli troops departed the area.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces have struck infrastructure used by Ukraine’s military in the port of Odesa, IFX reported.
• Russia’s Kremlin said that Russia will continue targeting vessels involved in supplying Ukraine’s military.

Geopolitics: Other 

• US State Department said the US calls on China to immediately cease its destabilising conduct and condemns China’s dangerous and aggressive actions against Philippine Navy personnel at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on July 20th.
• North Korea’s Foreign Minister met with Russian President Putin in Moscow on 19th July, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15am: ADP weekly employment change
• 8:30am July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I discussed the huge developments at the end of last week with Chinese open-source AI sparking another potential “DeepSeek moment”. Overnight Adrian Cox has published a timely report explaining what all the fuss is about. “Open-source AI 101: the battle for the future of AI” is a great insight for generalists into what open models are, how they differ from proprietary models like Claude and OpenAI’s GPTs, and why they are key to the AI boom. It’s on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website here.

I think that if the Chinese model of AI development continues to gain traction, it could have significant implications for the highly capital-intensive, capex-led US approach. As such, the piece is well worth a read.

Onto markets, and they struggled to gain traction yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) losing ground even as chip stocks stabilised after last week’s rout, while Middle East concerns lingered. There has been a recovery overnight though. On the Middle East conflict there was some hope as a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said that “ideas from some mediators have been conveyed” to Iran, but escalating rhetoric from the Houthis in Yemen as well as from President Trump meant Brent crude still closed +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl. Meanwhile, global bonds saw a broad selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields closing +4.4bps higher, in part due to a hint of looser fiscal policy from the new UK PM Burnham. 30yr US real yields also hit their highest since 2008. 

Starting with Iran, we did see some improvement in sentiment yesterday as Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had told them that mediators had passed a proposal to Iran, which would offer a 10-day ceasefire to try and revive the interim deal last month. But the headlines weren’t all positive yesterday, and shortly afterwards, oil prices pared back some of their decline after the Houthis said they’d impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which risks adding to the oil supply disruption. The mood also wasn’t helped by Trump’s post that Iran “will pay… many times over” for the deaths of US soldiers, while the US has conducted a 10th consecutive night of strikes against Iran overnight. So with different counteracting forces, Brent crude settled +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl, beneath its morning peak above $91/bbl but well off the lows just above $86/bbl. Overnight, Brent is -0.75% lower. 

Back to the bond sell-off and the UK led the way with gilts seeing a sharp underperformance after new PM Andy Burnham said that he would use “any flexibility” within the country’s fiscal rules. Potential options for such flexibility include using up the available headroom under the fiscal rules and using off-balance-sheet structures to fund targeted capital investments. The latter may lie outside the current fiscal rules but would still add to the debt burden. So the comments were seen as opening the way for more borrowing and meant that the 10yr yield ended the day up +8.1bps at 5.03%, whilst the 30yr yield (+8.9bps) closed at 5.74%. This sell-off all happened after he spoke. We’re also expecting some further announcements from the new administration this week, and Burnham said in his first speech as PM that he’d be setting out more measures from today to support with the cost of living.

In a surprise move, we then learnt that Burnham had picked John Healey, the former Defence Secretary, as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Healey had been voted as one of the more investor-friendly options for Chancellor in a recent Bloomberg survey, though there’s little visibility on his fiscal views. Indeed, his highest-profile recent move was accusing the Treasury of underfunding defence as he resigned from Starmer’s government last month. In other appointments, Burnham picked Ed Miliband as foreign secretary and appointed a close ally, Louise Haigh, as first secretary of state. The latter pick coupled with Healey’s as Chancellor raises the possibility that under Burnham, Number 10 will look to exert more direct control over economic policy. The pound did recover a bit of yesterday’s earlier losses following the news of Healey’s appointment, but it was still down -0.16% against the dollar. 

Whilst the UK saw the worst of the bond selloff, it was echoed around the world. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+2.5bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all moved higher, and for 10yr OATs, that took them up to a post-2009 high of 3.94%.

And over in the US, the 10yr Treasury yield (+4.4bps) was up to 4.59%. The sell-off in Treasuries was driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+3.3bps) rising to 2.33%, while the 30yr real yield (+3.4bps) rose to 2.92%, its highest level since 2008. At the same time, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with 34bps of hikes now priced in by the December meeting, up +2.3bps on the day. This has now retraced more than half of the declines seen since last week’s soft CPI. 

US equities struggled to recover amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising real yields. The S&P 500 (-0.19%) retreated for a third consecutive session with two thirds of its constituents down on the day. The Philly semiconductor index (+0.60%) did see a modest recovery after its -9.97% slump last week, so it’s no longer more than -20% beneath its record high, as it was on Friday. However, the broader tech mood was still cautious, with the NASDAQ (-0.05%) and Mag-7 (-0.07%) inching lower. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 was also down -0.30%, with the FTSE 100 (-0.71%) leading the losses amid the broader UK asset underperformance. 

However there has been a bounce this morning in Asia with S&P (+0.42%) and Nasdaq (+1.03%) futures both comfortably higher. The tech recovery continues elsewhere as the KOSPI (+4.63%) is leading gains in the region after falling nearly 5% yesterday. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+2.76%) is also firm after yesterday’s holiday. In China, the CSI 300 (+1.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.62%) are posting solid gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.03%) is fairly flat alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.08%). 

Early-morning data showed that South Korea’s exports surged 52.3% year-over-year during the first 20 days of July, driven largely by semiconductor shipments, which nearly tripled amid sustained demand fueled by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. This was one of the WOW! charts in my recent pack, with exports at over 50-year highs on a YoY basis. The trend continues. 

In other overnight news, the US announced that it will impose a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods. The new tariffs were announced under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which has never previously been used. This allows the President to impose duties of up to 50% in response to discriminatory treatment against U.S. commerce. According to US Trade Representative Greer, the new tariffs are due to take force in 30 days and will cover close to $20bn of goods, so a relatively small portion of the over $350bn of annual Canadian exports to the US. Note also that the US administration’s temporary Section 122 global tariff of 10% expires this Friday (July 24), so we may well see more US tariff announcements, especially ones justified by recent Section 301 investigations, in the coming days. 

Otherwise, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but Canadian government bonds outperformed after the country’s latest CPI print surprised on the downside. So headline CPI fell more than expected to +2.8% in June (vs. +2.9% expected), and the two core measures followed by the Bank of Canada were also beneath consensus, with median core at +1.9% (vs. +2.1% expected), and trim core at +1.8% (vs. +2.0% expected). So the 10yr yield in Canada only rose +0.8bps on the day, a smaller increase than the +4.4bps jump for 10yr Treasuries. 

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a quiet one, with data releases including UK unemployment for May and the German ZEW survey for July. Meanwhile from central banks, the ECB will release their Bank Lending Survey. Q2 earnings season will bubble in the background though.

The tit-for-tat escalation between the US and Iran entered its tenth day as another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened shipping at a second strategic chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

US Central Command launched strikes targeting Iranian command and control centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defenses to “further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!”

Still, Pakistan and Qatar are urging both sides to return to their positions before the latest escalation began on July 9. Iran says it remains open to diplomacy but will not negotiate under attack, while the Trump team has signaled that strikes will continue until Tehran stops attacking tankers and bulk carriers in the critical waterway. Reuters reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire.

Shipping flows in the Hormuz have all but slowed, according to new Bloomberg data. As of Tuesday morning, just six vessels have transited the critical waterway. The data doesn’t account for ships turning off transponders.

Bloomberg reports that Iran struck another tanker in the strait:

Visible traffic through Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend.

An oil supertanker called the Acheloos and a smaller fuel tanker were both struck in the waterway, according to Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the ships’ manager.

Early Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said that a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile in the strait northeast of Oman’s Limah, citing multiple reports, without identifying the vessel. The notice indicates a separate attack to those on the Dynacom tankers.

The flare-up in violence sent Brent crude oil futures surging in recent weeks to over $90 a barrel, with Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warning on Monday that oil prices could rally to $120 if there is no de-escalation.

“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,” Struyven said in a note to clients.

Related:

• “We’ve Burned Through All Buffers”: Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes

Meanwhile, US consumers are feeling the pinch again at the pump, with the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline topping $4 a gallon once more. This is the politically sensitive line in the sand at which the Trump administration takes notice and consumer behavior begins to shift down at convenience stores, gas stations, and QSRs (quick-service restaurants).

Latest headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Tit-For-Tat

• The US and Iran have exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day, with US Central Command targeting Iranian military command centers, launch sites, maritime capabilities, and air defenses.
• Iran has retaliated by attacking US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan.
• Trump vowed Tehran “will pay” after Iran killed three US soldiers.
• According to the Washington Post, US intelligence reports suggest US strikes are unlikely to move Iran.
• Iran’s Khorramabad area in Lorestan Province was attacked earlier today.

Diplomacy & Ceasefire Efforts

• Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage a collapsed interim deal.
• Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the US to revive the interim deal, according to an unidentified senior Iranian official cited by Reuters.
• Iran’s president said communication with Supreme Leader Khamenei has increased, per Tasnim reports.

Regional Risks

• The Kaifan, an oil-products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz northeast of Oman’s Limah.
• The Houthi militant group in Yemen is threatening to blockade Saudi Arabia and target shipping in the Red Sea, adding to regional maritime risks.
• Southeast Asian nations expressed “serious concern” over the conflict, warning of spillover effects on regional trade, food security, and energy markets.

Energy & Market Impact

• Goldman Sachs says Brent crude could top $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, though its base case remains $80 per barrel assuming de-escalation.
• European natural gas futures extended gains, surging more than 20% over the previous seven sessions, as the conflict tightens supply ahead of winter.
• Pakistan and Bangladesh were forced to buy some of their most expensive LNG shipments in years due to supply disruptions from the conflict. Pakistan LNG paid about $21.88 per MMBtu, its highest since 2022, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.