Whether it is Chevron, Tesla, Oracle, Caterpillar, CBRE, Fisher Investments, and/or an expanding roster of other major companies, corporate America has spent the better part of the post-Covid era shifting headquarters to Texas for one simple reason: the state offers a much more business-friendly environment than left-leaning blue states.

In a proxy filing on Tuesday, Exxon Mobil asked shareholders to approve moving its legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas after more than a century in New Jersey.

The main reason executives want to move to the red state is its friendlier business climate, which offers more predictable decision-making and could also reduce exposure to frivolous lawsuits.

“The Texas Redomiciliation may reduce the risk of future frivolous litigation against the Texas Corporation and its directors and officers,” Exxon wrote in the filing.

If approved at Exxon’s May 27 shareholder meeting, the company would be governed by Texas law on issues such as bylaws, director duties, and shareholder rights. Exxon noted that most of its senior leadership and about a third of its global workforce are already based in Texas.

Exxon’s evolution from its Standard Oil days has left it incorporated in New Jersey since the 1880s, and its attempt to move is yet another example of corporate America abandoning states run by left-wing politicians pushing a failed green agenda and other destructive progressive policies in favor of red states governed by common sense.

Here’s a partial list of physical headquarters moved to Texas:

• Chevron — from San Ramon, California, to Houston, announced in August 2024.

• Tesla — from Palo Alto, California, to Austin, announced in 2021.

• Oracle — from Redwood City, California, to Austin, announced in 2020.

• Caterpillar — from Illinois to Irving, Texas, announced in 2022.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise — from San Jose, California, to Spring, Texas, announced in 2020.

• CBRE — from Los Angeles to Dallas in 2020.

• Frontier Communications — from Connecticut to Dallas in 2023.

• Fisher Investments — from Washington to Plano in 2023.

• Professional Bull Riders (PBR) — from Colorado to Fort Worth in 2024.

• Verily Life Sciences — from California to Dallas in 2024.

The Texas governor’s office reports that Texas logged 314 headquarters relocations from 2015 to 2024, including 24 in 2024 alone.

Now, Texas is taking on Wall Street with its own exchange, the Texas Stock Exchange.

For the four weeks ending February 21, 2026, ADP reports that private employers added an average of 15,500 jobs a week. 

Employment gains reached their highest since Thanksgiving week last year, holding steady in February after five straight weeks of strengthening. 

This positive labor market signal stands in the face of last week’s surprised plunge in non-farm payrolls – driven by a strike-triggered drop in Healthcare jobs and a huge revisions in the labor force as native workers suddenly disappeared.

Combined with the ongoing strength of the jobless claims data, once could argue that the ‘no hire, no fire’ economy is edging back towards jobs growth.

S&P futures are unchanged this morning, but approaching session low, following Trump comments that appeared to be the first signs of an off-ramp which however were followed by renewed fighting in the Middle East. While the risk is of re-escalation, JPMorgan writes that we are “seeing a global unwind of war-related trades as the market awaits additional news from US, Israel, Iran” but with headlines like this it will hardly last *IRAN BEGINS NEW WAVE OF MISSILE STRIKES ON NORTHERN ISRAEL: TV.  As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.2%, and Nasdaq futs turn red even as Mag7 and Semis help Tech outperform with AI themes working across regions. TSMC sales worth noting up 30% in the first two months of the year. ORCL post close in focus on the tech/AI front. Global markets snapped higher with the batshit insane KOSPI leading up 535bps one day after being halted limit down (again), Europe rises ~200bps, depending on the market, having yesterday unwound all YTD gains. UK consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low in March, reversing gains made at the start of the year. WTI is still down -7% but reversing rapidly amid the latest shooting headlines: crude traded in quite a band with WTI touching $120 yesterday as well as $80, setting $89 so far this morning; European gas prices are down 13% to sub $50as well. Copper, gold not really moving. 10-year off yesterday’s lows +3bps to 4.13%, Dollar lower, DXY at $99 and Bitcoin risk on up 250bps to $70.7k.  Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Biz Survey, weekly ADP, and existing home sales. NFIB out early here this morning small step back 98.8 vs. 99.6 survey and 99.3 last month – index has been hovering around these levels since mid-2025 post tariff concerns.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +0.8%, Meta Platforms +0.6%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Nvidia +0.1%, Microsoft unchanged, Apple -0.1%)

• BioNTech SE ADRs (BNTX) slump 17% after the vaccine maker forecast revenue for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the company’s founding duo plan to leave to start a new biotech focused on messenger RNA, the technology behind their blockbuster Covid-19 vaccine.
• Casey’s General Stores (CASY) slips 2% after the convenience-store operator reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) gains 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight, saying the platform is a winner from AI positioning and its growth outlook is promising.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rises 1.6% after the company’s outlook for revenue in the current quarter exceeded analysts’ estimates, a sign the company is benefiting from solid demand for hardware that helps customers run AI workloads.
• Kohl’s (KSS) falls 7% after reporting worse-than-expected sales for last quarter, as the retailer continues to struggle to revive years of declining results.
• Teladoc Health (TDOC) rises 8% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the virtual health-care provider to buy, citing a compelling valuation and a potential exit scenario.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) rises 6% after the drugmaker gave interim results from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a rare autoimmune kidney disease. William Blair views the data as a “clear win” for the company.
• Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) jumps 15% after the biotech reported adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter.

In other corporate news, Disney is said to be close to naming Thomas Mazloum, current head of Disneyland California, as chairman of the company’s parks division. Apple increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there. Lego plans to invest heavily in the US, eyeing further gains in market share. Elsewhere on the data front, China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in Jan-Feb (exports +21.8% y/y, imports +19.8% y/y) and came in well above expectations. Chinese nominal exports to major trading partners rose sequentially in Jan-Feb.

Global markets moved risk on in early trading with oil extending declines after Trump’s comments sparked optimism that the war with Iran will end soon. It’s possible that geopolitical risk has peaked, said JPMorgan’s head of International Market Intelligence, but “the tape still feels pretty tentative.” And indeed, futures have since sunk and oil is rebounding following reports this morning of renewed fighting in the Middle East. Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and have the Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s also said to be weighing options like the release of emergency stockpiles.

“The war in Iran is not over and can intensify again at any moment,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Any gains will remain limited until there are clear signs of an end to hostilities in the Gulf and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improves again.”

According to Goldman trader John Flood, while the market has proven it has the ability to move violently in both directions with dealers short gamma right now, right tail (squeeze) risk at the index level is primed to be the most extreme. HF gross leverage is essentially at an all time high driven by continued shorting (hedging) via macro products. Per GSPB short exposure in US Macro Products (Index + ETF) – as % of total US Gross MV on our Prime book – now stands at the highest level since Sep ’22 and ranks in the 93rd percentile vs. the past five years. Yet at the same time, Goldman Sachs cross-asset strategists turn tactically neutral on stocks and overweight on cash for three months, citing mounting risks that the Middle East conflict may spark an energy shock comparable to those of the 1970s.

And while investors often focus on the VIX as the main gauge of market fear, Europe’s underperformance versus the US since the Iran strikes has pushed European volatility higher and widened the V2X/VIX spread.

While AI had taken a backseat in markets amid Iran, but there are a few interesting datapoints to note today. TSMC, the go-to chipmaker for Nvidia, reported a 30% jump in sales in the first two months of the year. HPE gave quarterly revenue guidance that beat estimates, showing the company is benefiting from AI hardware demand. Oracle is reporting after the close, with Tech Watch noting that skittish investors are looking for reasons to sell.

In political news, several Senate Democrats are threatening to force numerous war powers votes and disrupt the chamber unless Republicans agree to hold public hearings on the reasons for the attacks on Iran. A key Republican senator said he’s launched an investigation into the FDA’s recent denials of treatments for rare diseases. And a top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic.

BioNTech and NIO are among companies due to report results before the market open. Focus will be on BioNTech’s outlook for 2026, according to BI. Earnings from Oracle and Franco-Nevada follow later in the day. Oracle might be more susceptible to cost pressures versus hyperscalers according to BI, which expects adjusted gross margin to contract roughly 400-500 bps in fiscal 2026.

Stoxx 600 up by 2.2%, with banks, tech and travel stocks leading the way, while energy stocks lag as crude declines.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks recovered Tuesday, lifted by an overnight Wall Street rally and easing inflationary risks after President Donald Trump signaled that the Iran war may end soon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.4%, retracing yesterday’s losses. Chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix led the region’s advance, while Australia’s Woodside Energy paced decliners. Equity markets across the region are holding onto fresh optimism after Trump said the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” Tuesday’s rebound highlights how quickly markets react to headlines from the Middle East, while cross-asset volatility shows little sign of easing in a fast-moving geopolitical environment. Oil prices plunged in Asia trading following Trump’s comments.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.3% on Tuesday, following US President Donald Trump’s comments that the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” The greenback’s G10 peers are paring last-week’s losses, led by the Australian dollar and Swiss franc which are up 0.47% and 0.27% respectively.

In rates, treasuries are under slight pressure in early US trading, unwinding a portion of the late-Monday bid sparked by US President Trump’s suggestion that the strikes on Iran that caused oil prices to surge in the past week may end soon. This week’s three Treasury auctions begin with 3-year new issue at 1pm New York time; 10- and 30-year reopenings follow over next two days.  US yields are 2bp-4bp cheaper with losses led by long-end tenors, steepening 2s10s by about 1bp, 5s30s about 2bp; 10-year near 4.12% is about 2bp cheaper as European bonds outperform, narrowing performance gap that opened Monday when Treasuries rallied after the London close.  UK leading the rally in European bonds, with two-year yields down eight basis points. Yields falling across Europe, with the biggest moves at the short end, though the rally has pared. For $58 billion 3-year note auction, WI yield around 3.578% is 6bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.1bp

In commodities, WTI crude futures are back to around $89/barrel after peaking near $120 on Monday. Gold higher to test $5,200/oz. Bitcoin rallying back towards $71,000.

US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am) and February existing home sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.9%
• DAX +2.1%
• CAC 40 +1.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.11%
• VIX -1.8 points at 23.66
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1198.68
• euro little changed at $1.1645
• WTI crude -8.3% at $86.8/barrel

Top Overnight News

• “It’s [the war] going to be ended soon,” Trump said later at a news conference. Trump did not put a timeline on the end of the war, though, when he was pressed for details. Asked how he squared saying that the war would end “soon” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks that the attacks are “only just the beginning” during a “60 Minutes” interview taped Friday, Trump said, “I think you could say both.” CNBC
• Trump said he was eyeing a quick end to the war in Iran, as some of his advisers privately urged him to look for an exit plan amid spiking oil prices and concerns that a lengthy conflict could spark political backlash. A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy. WSJ, WaPO
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not let any oil out of the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to threaten to hit Iran “twenty times harder” if it blocked exports. RTRS
• China’s exports surged 21.8% YoY in dollar terms in January and February, putting the world’s 2nd largest economy on course for another year of record trade surpluses weeks before Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing. Export growth in first 2 months of the year far exceeded the median forecast of 7.1% from a Reuters survey and the 6.6% increase in December. FT
• Apple Inc. increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there, reflecting the US company’s efforts to avoid tariffs on China. BBG
• TSMC’s sales rose 30% in the first two months of the year, driven by strong AI infrastructure buildout. BBG
• Japan’s annualized GDP growth was revised higher to 1.3% for the fourth quarter, beating estimates, on stronger business investment. BBG
• UK consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low in March, reversing gains made at the start of the year. The BRC said British retail sales grew modestly in February. BBG
• A top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic PBC over military use of its artificial intelligence tools following the company’s legal challenge of an unprecedented government move to declare the firm a supply-chain risk. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rose with global risk sentiment underpinned after oil price pressures eased on a potential G7 joint release of emergency reserves, and with relief seen after US President Trump said the war in Iran could end very soon. ASX 200 rallied with gains led by outperformance in miners, materials, tech and healthcare, while there was little reaction seen to the improved consumer sentiment and mixed business surveys. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 54,000 status amid softer yields and as exporters cheered the pullback in energy prices. There were also several data releases, including the final Q4 GDP, which either matched the preliminary numbers or were revised upwards, although Household Spending disappointed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green, although the mainland bourse lagged behind its regional peers after reports that the US and China clashed over fentanyl and tariffs at a global drugs meeting, while the Trump administration told Beijing it expects to reimpose the fentanyl-related levy ⁠under a different law.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Balance of Trade (Jan-Feb) 213.62B vs. Exp. 179.6B (Prev. 114.10B, Rev. From 114.1B).
• Chinese Exports YoY (Jan-Feb) Y/Y 19.2% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 6.6%).
• Chinese Imports YoY (Jan-Feb) Y/Y 19.8% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 5.7%).
• Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.6%, Rev. From -0.7%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.4%).
• Japanese GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q4) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.3%, Rev. From -2.6%, Low. 0.3%, High. 1.5%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) have rebounded from Monday’s losses, with many of the indices returning out of correction territory (>10% pullback from ATHs). The IBEX 35 (+3.1%) is the outperformer, with gains in Santander (+5.9%) supporting the index after the Co.’s President bought 300,000 shares for almost EUR 3mln, as well as the improvement in overall risk tone. The brighter risk  environment follows Monday’s comments by US President Trump, who suggested that the Iran war could be coming to an end. European sectors are in the green, ex-Energy (-0.7%). Sectors that have been hit the hardest due to the Iran war have seemed to have bounced the highest this morning, with Banks (+4.1%), Basic Resources (+3.5%) and Travel and Leisure (+3.5%) sitting near the top of the pile.

Top European News

• French Balance of Trade (Jan) -1.8B vs. Exp. -4.6B (Prev. -4.3B, Rev. From -4.8B).
• French Exports (Jan) 53.4B (Prev. 53.0B, Rev. From 53.1B).
• French Imports (Jan) 55.3B (Prev. 57.3B, Rev. From 57.9B).
• German Balance of Trade (Jan) 21.2B vs. Exp. 15.2B (Prev. 17.1B, Rev. From 17.1B).
• German Imports MoM (Jan) M/M -5.9% (Prev. 1.4%).
• German Exports MoM (Jan) M/M -2.3% vs. Exp. -2% (Prev. 4.0%, Rev. From 4%, Low. -2%, High. -1.5%).
• Italian PPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y -1.6% (Prev. -1.4%).
• Italian PPI MoM (Jan) M/M 1.5% (Prev. -0.7%).

FX

• DXY initially traded flat, before slipping a touch as the morning progressed. Today’s current range is contained within 98.492-98.939 at the time of writing. The day ahead of the US sees weekly ADP and Existing Home sales, although price action will likely be dictated by sentiment surrounding geopolitics.
• EUR/USD is flat with a mild upward bias, but consolidating after yesterday’s Trump-led slide in the USD, with the pair notching a 1.1507-1.1637 range on Monday, vs the current 1.1606-1.1636 range thus far on Tuesday. No move was seen to the German Trade Balance data. As above, price action will likely be dictated by geopolitical and/or energy updates.
• GBP/USD is among the better performers with Cable rising above its 200 DMA (1.3443) to a current high of 1.3483 (vs low 1.3413). This follows yesterday’s surge above its 100 DMA (1.3398) amid the aforementioned USD price action, with Tuesday’s range between 1.3282 and 1.3446.
• USD/JPY lacked direction overnight, and continues to trade sideways this morning after slipping beneath the 158.00 level yesterday, with little reaction to a batch of data releases from Japan, including Q4 GDP revisions that either matched or exceeded the preliminary numbers, while Household Spending surprisingly contracted. USD/JPY currently resides within 157.27-157.96 vs Monday’s 157.63-158.90 range.
• Antipodeans are mixed with AUD/USD outperforming amid firmer copper prices and better-than-expected Chinese trade data overnight, which showed double-digit percentage jumps in exports and imports for Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner. AUD/NZD, meanwhile, has risen back above 1.1950 and edges closer to 1.2000.
• NOK weakened in the aftermath of softer-than-expected CPI data, with the pair, in a delayed reaction, lifting from 11.1350 to 11.1650 in the five minutes following the release, before hitting an 11.1825 peak around 20 minutes later. The pair made a session high at 11.2334, before pulling back towards the 11.1900 mark.

Fixed Income

• A bullish start for fixed, as the complex continues to unwind the energy-induced sell-off from the start of the week.
• USTs are firmer by 10 ticks and at the top of a 112-14+ to 112-24+ band. Continuing to grind higher as energy benchmarks remain under pressure. The US day ahead is primarily a waiting game for any further administration updates on the timeline of the conflict, in addition to a 3yr tap.
• The upside today is most pronounced in Gilts as they catch up to the late Monday commentary from Trump, that the Middle East conflict could be over soon. Gilts gapped higher by 57 ticks, eclipsing the 91.00 handle before continuing to a 91.39 peak, taking out Friday’s 91.25 best. If the move continues, there is a bit of a gap before the 92.00 mark and then a cluster of levels just above. Given this, yields have pared notably. The UK 10yr notched a 4.79% peak yesterday, its highest since 4.86% from the 3rd of September 2025. This morning, the 10yr has been as low as 4.53%.
• Bunds are bid, even though the benchmark lifted by over 50 ticks late Monday on the Trump interview. Currently, firmer by 33 ticks but around 25 off a 127.53 peak. Similarly to Gilts, a bit of a gap now before the 128.00 mark and then a cluster of recent levels above. For the ECB, the action has helped markets to calm from the extreme pricing adjustments on Monday. Where, at one point, two 25bps hikes were priced. Currently, around 20bps of tightening is implied by end-2026, vs. c. 7bps this time last week.

Commodities

• Crude futures declined and have completely retraced this week’s opening surge. Downside follows comments from US President Trump, who suggested that the war with Iran will end soon. However, comments from the Iranian side this morning has shown little sign of constructive relations, as the Iranian Parliament Speaker said they do not seek a ceasefire. WTI Apr resides towards the middle of USD 84.43-91.48/bbl, while Brent May similar trades mid-range of USD 88.05-98.04/bbl.
• Nat Gas futures were similarly hit, with Dutch TTF this morning -15% and under EUR 50/MWh once again, with the market aggressively “pricing out” the previous risk premium amid US President Trump’s comments.
• Spot gold continues to edge higher, with the metals complex helped by recent dollar softening and as buying resumed amid hopes of a nearing conclusion to the hostilities and disruption in the Middle East. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 5,117.51-5,195.40 /oz range vs Monday’s hefty USD 5,014.58-5,192.04/oz parameter, in which gold closed at USD 5,136.60/oz.
• Copper futures advanced alongside the improvement in risk appetite, with little initial reaction seen to the latest trade data from the red metal’s largest buyer, China. To recap, Trade Balance, Imports, and Exports smashed expectations. China combined its Jan-Feb data to account for the Lunar New Year holiday distortions. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,992.00- 13,129.00/t.
• G7 Energy Ministers to meet at 12:45GMT / 08:45EDT.
• Saudi Aramco CEO sees global oil demand to reach record high of 107.3mln BPD in 2026.
• Saudi Aramco CEO said there is a disruption of around 180mln barrels so far; there are no problems related to storage capacity locally or internationally; CEO declines to comment on current oil production levels. “We will operate the East-West Pipeline at full capacity within two days”. Have 2mln BPD of spare capacity, so if there are any shutdowns amid the current situation, bringing that spare capacity back will take a matter of days.
• Saudi Aramco plans to increase refining capacity in strategic regions.
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait reportedly cut oil output by as much as 6.7mln BPD in total, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the adjustment of price limits and margin ratios for some fuel oil, petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures.
• Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT) declares a force majeure on some supplies.
• Taiwan’s Cabinet said it is to further cut the commodity tax on gasoline and diesel to 50%.
• Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa said Japan supports the IEA-led coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.
• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara reiterates no decision has been made on releasing strategic oil reserves.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Muller said the chance of rate hit has increased but should not rush, need to see if the surge in energy prices is transitory or not.
• ECB’s Simkus said it is important to stay calm until the next policy decision and not to over react, we are aware of the recent changes in market pricing but should stay the course for now.
• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said Australia’s economy is overall in good shape and there will be a very genuine policy debate at the board meeting, with arguments on both sides. A 5% peak for inflation probably looks a little on the pessimistic side; our response depends on size and persistence of the price shock, which is very uncertain. Inflation is too high. Oil price rise clearly an upside risk to the inflation projection but still in flux. Recent data seem to confirm even more decisively that the economy has limited spare capacity. Not all domestic data came in as strongly as expected, including consumption. Uncertainty over developments in Iran is extremely high. Data seems to confirm the economy has limited spare capacity.

Geopolitics

• Iranian Parliament Speaker said we do not seek a ceasefire and believe in the necessity of teaching the aggressor a harsh lesson.
• Iranian Army said we attacked the oil and gas refinery and fuel tanks in Haifa with drones, Al Hadath reported.
• Iranian military said heavy fire will continue to rain down on aggressors.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations with the US are no longer on the agenda.
• Iran’s ambassador to China said that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be controlled, but the Strait will not be closed.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say they will not allow a single litre of oil to be exported from the region if the US and Israeli attacks continue, adds that they will determine how and when the war ends.
• IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz will be open to any state that expels US and Israeli diplomatic envoys from its territory starting tomorrow.
• Iran targeted US sites and depots in Kuwait in recent hours, according to Tasnim.
• US President Trump said it’s going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again, Iran will be hit harder, while Trump responded ‘no, but soon’, when asked if the war will be done this week. said:. Big risk on Iran has been over for three days. We can leave it here but we are going to go further.
• US President Trump said will hit Iran harder if it attempts to stop world oil supply, adds Strait of Hormuz will be safe and getting close to finishing it regarding ‘excursion’. said:. Waiving some oil-related sanctions and will take some sanctions off until this straightens out. Winning very decisively and way ahead of schedule.
• US President Trump said we’re making major strides towards completing military objective and people could say they’re pretty well complete, left some of the most important Iran targets for later. said:. Iran’s missile capabilities are down to 10% or maybe less. Could hit Iran’s electric production, but don’t want to. We’re ahead of our initial timeline by a lot. Thinks Iran should put in a head that will be peaceful.
• US President Trump’s advisors urged him to find an Iran exit ramp, fearing political backlash, according to WSJ.
• US-Israel aggression targets houses in the Mehrshahr area of Karaj, western Iran, according to Mehr News Agency.
• Russia’s Kremlin says the trilateral format of the Ukraine talks need to be continued, but no specific dates or locations have been agreed for the next round

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: United States Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 99.6, prior 99.3
• 10:00 am: United States Feb Existing Home Sales, est. 3.88m, prior 3.91m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The past 24 hours has seen a dramatic roundtrip in oil markets as the seismic moves seen as we went to press yesterday gave way to increased optimism as President Trump suggested in the US afternoon that the war with Iran could be over “very soon”.  That eased concerns over a longer-term conflict that could trigger a major stagflationary shock and helped drive a turn lower in oil markets. Most notably, Brent crude oil prices pulled back from an intraday peak of $119.50/bbl before the European open to around $90 by the US close, though they’ve edged back up to $93.56 as I type. It even briefly traded as low as $83.66 late in the US session, which marks the largest daily nominal trading range since the start of the intra-day Bloomberg data in the 1980s when oil futures begun. The easing stress in oil markets rippled into other asset classes, with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) and 10yr Treasuries (-4.2bps) closing stronger on the day after a sharp initial sell-off.

While market stress had gradually eased through the course of yesterday’s session after peaking in Asia hours, the biggest turning point came after the European close as CBS reported Trump saying that “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, with the US “very far ahead of schedule”. The President then delivered a similar message in a press conference after the US close, suggesting the war will “be finished pretty quickly”. Trump also focused on oil prices, again raising the option of US Navy escorts for tankers and floating the prospect of waivers for “certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices”, without offering details other than he had discussed the topic in a call with Russia’s President Putin yesterday.

Those Trump comments helped ease market fears of a prolonged conflict that would turn into a more sustained energy shock. However, the timing for any resolution of the war remains far from clear, with Trump also saying that “we haven’t won enough” and that he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week. There are also doubts over Tehran’s willingness to de-escalate, with the IRGC releasing a statement last night that “It is we who will determine the end of the war” and that it would not allow oil to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue. In turn, that prompted Trump to escalate his threats last night, posting that “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far”. And we’ve seen Israel launch a new wave of strikes against Iran overnight, with Gulf countries in turn reporting Iranian strikes.

The lingering uncertainty has seen oil prices tick slightly higher overnight, with Brent crude up to $93.56 from around $90 at the US close yesterday, though that’s still below the $99.40 level they were before the CBS report yesterday evening and some 25% below yesterday’s intra-day highs. Investors will be keenly watching for any signs that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz can pick up from the current all but suspended levels, not least as yesterday Saudi Arabia became the latest country to start cutting oil production. Remember that the oil moves have been much more contained further out the futures curve, with December 2026 Brent futures currently trading at $74.95/bbl. We will also be watching whether plans to release oil reserves materialise. Yesterday’s virtual G7 finance ministers’ meeting didn’t get to that point yet, with their statement saying they “stand ready to take necessary measures”, and France’s finance minister said they were “not there yet”. Overnight, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said that G7 energy ministers are expected to meet to discuss the process of oil reserve release today.

Markets in Asia are of course rebounding this morning given the timing of the Trump speech, with the KOSPI rising by +4.63% and the Nikkei increasing by +2.55%, both recovering sharply after having closed nearly -6.0% and over -5.0% lower yesterday, respectively. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are also on the rise, with the Hang Seng index increasing by +1.76%, outperforming the CSI (+1.09%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%). The S&P/ASX 200 is +0.85%. Europe’s STOXX 50 futures (+1.00%) are reversing Monday’s decline but those on the S&P 500 (-0.20%) have dipped in the absence of imminent de-escalation.

Coming back to China, the trade surplus (+$213.62 bn) rose to its highest on record in the combined January-February period (v/s $176.10 bn expected) while exports rose +21.8% y/y, beating the +7.2% growth expected, underscoring the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy despite trade tensions with the US.

Looking back at yesterday’s moves, the volatility in oil prices reverberated through rates markets, especially when it comes to inflation pricing. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap moved as high as 3.10% intra-day before closing all the way down at 2.75%, -15.5bps lower on the day, with a near 20bps decline after the CBS story broke shortly after 3pm EST. And the news saw yields on 2yr (-2.4bps to 3.54%) and 10yr (-4.2bps to 4.10%) Treasuries close at the session’s lows after a 10-12bp intra-day range that saw 10yr yields peak at 4.21% just before London opened. Treasury yields are edging higher overnight, with the 10yr +1.5bps higher as the pattern of underperformance during Asia hours is again repeating, albeit mildly.

For equity markets, the turn in sentiment helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.83% by yesterday’s close after rebounding by more than 1% in the final hour of trading. S&P 500 futures had been down as much as -2.4% in Asia hours yesterday. The NASDAQ (+1.38%) and the Russell 2000 (+1.12%) posted even stronger recoveries, while the VIX index fell by -3.99pts on the day to 25.50 after peaking above 35 at the European open. 

Over in Europe, markets recovered from the lows early in the session but closed before Trump’s comments to CBS News triggered the more risk-on tone. That left the STOXX 600 -0.63% lower on day, up from -2.46% shortly after the open, while the CAC (-0.77%) and DAX (-0.98%) saw slightly larger declines. Most sovereign bonds saw a fuller reversal of the sell-off, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.4bps), OATs (-0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) all little changed by the close, having been between +7bps and +15bps higher on Monday morning as inflation concerns mounted. One bond market that struggled to fully recover was UK gilts, with markets at one point pricing in 20bps of BoE rate hikes this year, from pricing more than 50bps of rate cuts before the strikes on February 28. While 2026 BoE hikes were largely priced out by yesterday’s close, 2yr gilts yields were still +11.7bps higher at 3.99%, with 10yr yields +2.0bps on the day.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the existing home sales for February, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Simkus and Muller.

China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in January-February (exports: +21.8% yoy, imports: +19.8% yoy) and came in well above consensus expectations, prompting Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky to ask:

Rebounding aggressively. China exports were strong and CPI came in hot earlier in the week, prompting the question: is China done exporting deflation?

Government data showed that exports soared 22% during the period, compared with a 7.2% median estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Imports jumped nearly 20%, according to a statement released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. The trade surplus came in at $214 billion, an all-time high for the January-February period.

Notably, both months are combined to smooth out any distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday.

Trade flows show China is becoming less reliant on the US market. Exports to the US fell 11%, while shipments to Africa surged nearly 50%. Exports to ASEAN rose more than 29%, and shipments to the EU climbed almost 28%.

This data shows Beijing is finding alternative markets as the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ agenda decouples from China.

Total exports for January nearly topped $357 billion, the second-highest on record, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.

Société Générale SA economist Michelle Lam said surging trade volumes in China were due to strong tech product demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

Among major categories and in sequential terms, import value of semiconductors increased the most, followed by metal ores and products, while import value of energy goods decreased (mainly from natural gas and coal). In year-over-year terms, chip imports continued to accelerate by 40.0% yoy in January-February.

Also on the import side, Crude volumes rose sharply in January and February as Beijing amassed reserves, pre-empting Mideast risks, and analysts say it provides a strong buffer for global supply disruptions.

China imported 96.93 million tonnes of crude in January and February, up 15.8 per cent from the same period in 2025, according to customs data released on Tuesday. The value of those imports, meanwhile, fell 5.2 per cent from last year in US dollar terms.

“China was accumulating oil and gas stockpiles [earlier this year], with the market expecting the US to strike Iran,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“It built on the record-breaking strong stockpiling momentum we saw in 2025.”

While highly exposed to Middle Eastern oil, China has built a substantial stockpile – which Lee estimated to be around 120 days of import cover – that provides a buffer against potential supply shocks.

“China should also benefit from AI supply chain-related goods,” Lam said. “That supports our view that there is no major growth risks despite modest stimulus this year, helped by export demand, with US-Iran situation risks to watch.”

The trade data comes after China’s consumer inflation accelerated to the highest in more than three years, while producer deflation persisted, with soft demand remaining a drag on the economy.

The positive start to the year came just before Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East upended global energy markets and commercial shipping lanes. This now poses a severe risk for the world’s largest exporter as the economic fallout from an energy shock may first weigh on industry.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said, “Tensions in the Middle East will push inflation higher for as long as global energy prices remain elevated.”

“An extended conflict in an oil-producing region will fuel inflation, reduce room for monetary easing, and negatively affect global growth outlook — that, in turn, will affect China’s exports,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia for Standard Chartered Plc. “Given the uncertainty about how long the war will last, I think it is too early to think about stimulus. In fact, the growth target for 2026 was lowered partly to deal with an unpredictable situation like this.”

The trade and inflation data come just weeks before the summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump to discuss ways to end the trade war. A potential mega Boeing-China jet deal may suggest positive results could emerge from the upcoming meeting.

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Artificial intelligence (AI) developer Anthropic sued the Department of War on March 9, following the federal government’s designation of the company as a supply chain risk.

That designation hinders government agencies and their contractors from working with Anthropic.

The suit comes after the company refused to change the user policy for its AI tool Claude to allow the government to use it for what Anthropic described as “mass surveillance” and “fully autonomous weapons.”

The Pentagon has denied that it planned to use Claude for such purposes.

The refusal caused President Donald Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth to direct federal agencies to sever ties with Anthropic and state that “effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic.”

On social media, both Trump and Hegseth accused Anthropic of trying to “strong-arm” the federal government by dictating its military policy.

“WE will decide the fate of our Country—NOT some out-of-control, Radical Left AI company run by people who have no idea what the real World is all about,” Trump said in a Feb. 27 Truth Social post.

“Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military,” Hegseth said on X the same day. “That is unacceptable.”

Anthropic alleges that the federal government is punishing the company for its First Amendment-protected speech and viewpoint.

The company also alleges that the Department of War reached out to some of its business partners following the rift and that those companies “delayed or paused several national security contracts or business engagements already in active development with Anthropic.” That puts “millions, possibly billions, of dollars at risk,” Anthropic stated.

“These actions are unprecedented and unlawful,” Anthropic’s lawsuit reads.

“The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech. No federal statute authorizes the actions taken here.

“Anthropic turns to the judiciary as a last resort to vindicate its rights and halt the executive’s unlawful campaign of retaliation.”

In its filing, Anthropic said it isn’t confident that Claude “would function safely or reliably” if used for those purposes. Anthropic’s suit asks the court to set aside Trump and Hegseth’s designation as unconstitutional.

The lawsuit also names the US Treasury and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the State Department, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with 17 other government agencies and officials.

A group of more than 30 AI engineers and scientists from OpenAI and Google, including the latter’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, also filed a legal brief in support of Anthropic on Monday.

“If allowed to proceed, this effort to punish one of the leading U.S. AI companies will undoubtedly have consequences for the United States’ industrial and scientific competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence and beyond,” the group wrote.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the suit.

The Pentagon previously said the company must accept “any lawful use” of its tools and technology to support the U.S. military.

Childhood obesity in the United States has reached its highest recorded level, renewing debate over school meals, physical activity, nutrition policy and the role of weight-loss medications for young people, according to The Hill. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows more than 1 in 5 children and teenagers were obese between 2021 and 2023, up from 5.2 percent in the early 1970s. About 7 percent now meet the criteria for severe obesity.

The issue has become part of the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative connected to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Discussions around solutions often center on improving school meals and increasing opportunities for physical activity.

Nutrition advocates say school meal programs play a critical role in children’s diets. For some students, breakfast and lunch at school are the most nutritious meals they receive each day. Erin Hysom of the Food Research & Action Center said pandemic school closures disrupted that support. “They’re noting that this increase in obesity occurred during COVID-19 and that jump in childhood obesity happened during the years when millions of kids lost access to reliable school meals,” she said.

The Hill writes that only nine states currently provide universal free breakfast and lunch to public school students, though others are considering similar programs. Federal officials have also promoted updated nutrition guidance that emphasizes whole foods and discourages ultra-processed products, which account for more than 60 percent of children’s daily calories.

Researchers say improving school meals will require additional funding, trained staff and better kitchen equipment so schools can prepare more fresh food. At the same time, the administration has approved requests from 18 states to remove soda and junk food from certain food assistance programs and announced new nutrition training requirements for future physicians.

Experts also point to declining physical activity in schools as a contributing factor. Erin Hager of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health said opportunities such as recess and physical education have gradually been reduced as schools focus more heavily on testing. “Many of those physical activity opportunities that a lot of us kind of take for granted… have been taken away and replaced by a focus on standardized tests,” she said.

Medical treatments are also part of the conversation. The Food and Drug Administration has approved several obesity medications for adolescents ages 12 to 17, including Wegovy, Saxenda, Orlistat and Qsymia. Prescriptions for these drugs rose sharply after their approval, though they are still used by only a small share of eligible teens.

Matthew Haemer of the American Academy of Pediatrics said prevention remains the priority, but medication can help some patients. “For those children — especially those children with the most severe obesity… FDA-approved medications can be a helpful tool in the toolbox,” he said.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government under Keir Starmer is once again eyeing a total ban on X, this time claiming Grok’s ability to spit out “insults” and “offensive language” poses a dire threat. But as users on the platform point out, this is just another excuse to silence dissent against the regime.

Fresh reports reveal Starmer’s administration is probing ways to penalize X for “spreading offence online,” including a potential shutdown. Sky News reported on Grok being prompted to generate vulgar responses targeting Hinduism, Islam, and even historic football disasters.

Watch:

🚨BREAKING: KEIR STARMER IS CONSIDERING MOVE TO SHUT DOWN X AGAIN

Grok can be prompted to produce ‘insults’ and ‘offensive language’

The UK Government are now looking at ways to penalise the platform for spreading offence online INCLUDING a possible shutdown

We know why… pic.twitter.com/nTUrFZtwbQ

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) March 8, 2026

The correspondent notes that Grok has been used to generate “highly offensive content” directed toward groups of football fans, such as blaming Liverpool supporters for the 1989 Hillsborough disaster, where 97 fans died in a crush, and for which authorities were found to be culpably responsible. Similar insults targeted Rangers fans, referencing the 1971 Ibrox disaster that claimed 66 lives.

The government says it is investigating the issue. This comes after Ofcom, as the regulator, stated at the start of the year that it was considering potential actions. Under the Online Safety Act, penalties could include fines up to 10% of a company’s worldwide revenue or £18 million if non-compliance is determined.

Sky News states that X is “urgently investigating” the chatbot responses.

This isn’t Starmer’s first rodeo in targeting X. As we detailed in our earlier coverage, the UK government threatened a total ban on X over the so-called “Grok bikini flap,” where the AI was prompted to create ‘sexualized’ images.

As we further noted, the push for a total ban likely has nothing to do with protecting children, but everything to do with stifling free speech and criticism of the Labour government’s policies.

X users aren’t buying the latest pretext. One post blasts “Starmer Bin Lying gets fact checked by Grok every time he speaks He can’t even post on this app without being exposed as a liar.”

A reply warns of tyranny, quoting Robert A. Heinlein: “When any government, or any church for that matter, undertakes to say to its subjects, This you may not read, this you must not see, this you are forbidden to know, the end result is tyranny and oppression no matter how holy the motives.”

This pattern reeks of authoritarian overreach. Starmer’s regime, facing backlash over open borders and surveillance creep, can’t stand a platform where truths about their failures go viral.

X remains a bastion for uncensored discourse, exposing leftist hypocrisy and globalist agendas. Shuttering it just because a minority of people made Grok make up some insults would constitute a total victory for tyrants.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Summary:

• Trump pledges Iran ‘excursion’ going to be ended soon, but warned “Iran will be hit harder” if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.

• When asked by reporter, Trump refuses to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.

• Trump tells Republican conference it is going to be a short-term excursion in Iran, but he’s ready to see the mission through against “evil” Iran.. Says of Tehran, “They should’ve cried uncle two days ago.” And Iran campaign will be “finished pretty quickly”.

• Trump tells CBS “the war could be over soon.” Oil prices drop on the headline.

• Trump calls choice of new supreme leader ‘a big mistake’

• Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.

• Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran’s oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.

• Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son

• Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

• Timeline to end Iran war? Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.

• Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.

• Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”

• G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.

• Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.

• Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!

• Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.

• Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.

• Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”

• CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon

* * *

Update(1550ET): A more carefully scripted public address on the Iran war was given by President Trump from Florida late afternoon, in which he reviewed how the ‘excursion’ in Iran is going. He pledged it’s going to be ended soon, but warned “Iran will be hit harder” if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.

But on this issue, Trump issued nothing new on a potential move to militarily enter the Strait of Hormuz to ensure free passage, only assuring it will be made “safe”. He said military objectives are “pretty well complete” but that there are still some very important targets to be hit. Also interesting is that when asked by a reporter, Trump refused to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.

US CENTCOM has meanwhile said that thus far in Operation Epic Fury over 5,000 Iranian targets have been hit, and 50 Iranian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged. 

Footage from Iran right now looks like something out of a movie. I have no idea what they are hitting or how they are hitting, but this is something completely new for me. pic.twitter.com/yHxbEy32BA

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 9, 2026

More on possible timeline or an exit:

Reporter: You called it an excursion. You said it would be over soon. Are you thinking it will be over this week?

Trump: No, but very soon. pic.twitter.com/R4G95Q2O6r

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

* * *

Update(1710ET): Watch President Trump tell a Republican event that he expects it to be a short-term ‘excursion’ in Iran…

President Trump called the Iran war a “short-term excursion.”

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/mwDx0EikXM

— AF Post (@AFpost) March 9, 2026

Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is “very far ahead of schedule” and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed… is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here’s what Trump told CBS by phone:

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

Oil rapidly dropped… down 30% from overnight highs:

Offramp brewing? Notice below there’s now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran’s ability to project power via proxy forces.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 9, 2026

TRUMP JUST SAID THE WAR COULD SOON BE OVER pic.twitter.com/oJeyEjERrc

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) March 9, 2026

* * *

Update(1240ET): Iran on Monday is seeking to showcase its continuity and ‘stability’ of government after a week of heavy US-Israeli bombardment failed to produce regime change. Instead, Tehran is vowing to fight back, saying it can keep the war going for as long as needed. Analysts have pointed out Iran needs to inflict a cost on the US and Israel, fearing it will just be attacked again somewhere down the line, even if years from now. 

And yet, Trump admin officials have been signaling the American public there won’t be a protracted war. But on this big looming question, The Wall Street Journal is out Monday with the following ominous headline suggesting a lengthy conflict ahead: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son…

The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, a conservative long close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows that Trump’s efforts so far to cow the regime into surrender have failed. It also appears to have put hard-liners in firm control of the country, with moderate and reformist factions long marginalized. The 56-year old Khamenei is expected to take a confrontational stance toward the West.

His appointment also shows that Iran won’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that he approve the country’s new top cleric. Trump told Axios last week that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.”

The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. 

There remains the question of if US and Israeli goals and objectives are truly aligned on the Iran war. Some of Trump’s latest remarks are cause for concern, and highlight the aforementioned question: “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it. We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” Trump asserted.

The President indicated that he would keep the ultimate prerogative but while consulting directly with Netanyahu. “I think it’s mutual, a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.” Some admin officials are likely looking for a quick exit ramp, which would probably involve a politically expedient moment to declare ‘victory’ and get out. But will the Israelis cooperate when/if that moment comes?

Some establishment thinktanks in the US are meanwhile taking note that the administration is struggling with an exit strategy. For example, via the NY-based Soufan Center:

Yet, experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran’s existing power structure oppose U.S. influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow. When addressing reports last week that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly announced Supreme Leader, was favored to succeed his father, Trump said the pick would be “unacceptable.” Axios quoted him as saying: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran…They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.” 

⚡️Massive Israeli-U.S airstrikes on Sarandaj, Iran pic.twitter.com/6SNOYb11hU

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

* * *

Iran’s military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he’s a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He’s said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.

The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There’s been emerging reports suggesting there’s been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials – and yet probably President Trump doesn’t like to see oil go up in flames.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches.” He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.

With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there’s no halting the fight at this stage: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response,” he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won’t cease until there’s “unconditional surrender” by Iran.

Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime’s core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There’s also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures. 

“We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it,” Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. “The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch.”

The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran’s conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there’s a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country – roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.

Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours
— US talking “limited” ground forces
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 9, 2026

At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.

He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end – also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:

—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18

—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO (“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”)

The Foreign Ministry’s Baghaei has further addressed President Trump’s ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran’s borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran’s map would look the same after the war, Trump said, “That I can’t tell you. Probably not.”

Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: “The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies,” the FM spokesman said. “For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect.”

As for ‘sacrifice’ – but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.

Trump after seeing oil prices:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World,

ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY! pic.twitter.com/GctyxuO6Up

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Current mass WH messaging…

The message just went out. “Short term pain, for long term gain.”

pic.twitter.com/DVZt2dolIi

— Clayton Morris (@ClaytonMorris) March 9, 2026

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to “baseless claims” – including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop – as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there’s likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian’s ‘apology’ that Iran “has not reflected that statement in practice.” It laid out that Iran has “continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war.”

⚡️Bahrain:The moment the fire broke out in the fuel tanks of BAPCO Energy Company after it was targeted by a swarm of Iranian drones. pic.twitter.com/wHh8aCxkxt

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. “The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future,” the ministry said.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region – after Tehran’s own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.

Israel’s ‘second front’ in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There’s already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.

Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, however.

Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:

⚡️ Northeast Tehran pic.twitter.com/WT2GN9VHao

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

As for ‘what’s next’ – escalation or offramp… the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: “Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.

This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don’t see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: “Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.” But all of this fresh reporting of ‘distance’ between the close allies who are executing Trump’s Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.

Asian benchmark Newcastle coal prices jumped more than 9% to $150/ton (as per BBG data) at the start of the week, as energy flows across the Gulf area remain disrupted and transit through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly slowed. The rise in coal prices is being driven by a broader energy shock, with surging gas prices making coal a more economical substitute fuel for power generators.

Last week’s IRGC kamikaze drone attack, which shuttered Qatar’s massive LNG export facility – responsible for roughly 20% of global supply – has been the driving force behind gas-to-coal switching, especially in Europe, as gas prices have soared 50%.

Samantha Dart (Global Co-Head of Commodities Research) penned a note late this weekend on natural gas:

“European natural gas prices (TTF) closed the week up 88% from pre-Iran-conflict levels, at 53 EUR/MWh. For context, approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes flow through the Strait of Hormuz, largely produced by Qatar, and no reroutes exist. This flow is 100% halted at the moment, with Qatari production fully down following a drone attack.

We base-case that Qatari LNG production will be restored by early April, and we have accordingly raised our April TTF forecast to 55 EUR/MWh, well into the 45 EUR/MWh (fuel oil) to 71 EUR/MWh (diesel) gas-to-oil switching range because we think increased fuel switching away from gas will be required to normalize European gas storage ahead of the next winter. We have not changed our 21 EUR/MWh 2027 TTF forecast. In a scenario where the Qatari supply shock lasts over 1 month, we would expect TTF prices to rally further to the mid-70 EURs/MWh, where diesel is currently priced, to incentivize further switching. A scenario where the shock lasts longer than two months would likely lift TTF above 100 EUR/MWh to incentivize broader industrial demand destruction across Europe and Asia.”

Notice that Exhibit 2 above shows TTF is already in the coal-switching range. The rest of Dart’s note can be read here. 

In a separate note, UBS analyst Manik Narain warned of EM energy risks if the Hormuz chokepoint remains clogged:

“EM Asia appears most directly at risk, accounting for ~73% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. 40-70% of India, Korea and Thailand’s oil supply transits this route; while Thailand and Taiwan generate 45-60% of electricity from gas, indicating potential price risks to tech and other industrial supply chains if the conflict doesn’t abate soon.”

The duration of the conflict is key because higher NatGas prices will only spur continued gas-to-coal switching.

UBS highlighted that EM power generation in countries such as Mexico, Thailand, and Taiwan remains heavily exposed to oil and gas, leaving electricity systems vulnerable as fuel prices surge. Taiwan stands out, given its major role in the global AI chip supply chain, meaning rising power costs there could have implications far beyond domestic electricity markets.

Related:

• These EM Countries Face Greatest Risk If Energy Shock Spreads

Operation Epic Fury has been one way to ‘Make Coal Great Again’…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In yet another brazen attempt to erase history, the London Museum Docklands has half-covered a portrait of 18th-century merchant Beeston Long with Madras cloth, all in the name of “reclaim[ing] Caribbean history.” This symbolic shrouding targets Long’s investments in Jamaican plantations, turning a piece of British maritime legacy into a virtue-signaling prop.

Critics see this as part of the left’s relentless campaign to erase uncomfortable truths about the past, prioritizing feelings over history and sidelining the achievements of figures who built modern Britain. With new panels lecturing visitors that such artworks can “obscure” or “sanitise” links to slavery and “evoke emotional responses,” the museum is pushing a narrative that gives “voice to those whose cultures have been impacted by colonialism.”

The portrait of Beeston Long, a former Bank of England governor who oversaw Docklands expansion, now hangs partially obscured by cloth exported to the Caribbean during colonial times. Museum officials claim this intervention helps “reclaim the histories of colonised Caribbean nations” and celebrates the Windrush Generation’s influence.

Museum covers up portrait of former Bank of England governor who owned slaves to ‘reclaim Caribbean history’ https://t.co/w1KJ9mmWVd

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 9, 2026

They assert the Caribbean community was “essential” to the area and “invited to migrate to Britain to help rebuild the ‘mother country’” between 1948 and 1971, noting arrivals “created the Tower Hamlets we know today.”

Displays further declare: “Many of the objects in this gallery were created for and through the oppression of enslaved people. European colonialists exploited African and Asian peoples and lands relentlessly.”

To top it off, an installation called Holding Emotions offers visitors ways to “reclaim wellbeing” and “ground yourself,” complete with doodling tips and comfy seats for those triggered by history.

This isn’t an isolated incident. Recall the removal of Robert Milligan’s statue outside the same museum in 2020 amid Black Lives Matter unrest, which remains in storage. National Museum Cardiff yanked a painting of colonial governor Thomas Picton in 2021 to “decolonise” its collection.

As we’ve covered before, this woke purge has targeted icons across the West. In Wales, the government flagged statues of “old white men” like Admiral Horatio Nelson – an “aggressor who conquered peoples” – General Arthur Wellesley, Charles, 2nd Earl Grey (an abolitionist), and Winston Churchill for removal, claiming they fuel perceptions of white male dominance and “can be offensive to people today.”

Across the pond, Theodore Roosevelt’s equestrian statue at New York’s American Museum of Natural History was covered and removed in 2021, labeled a symbol of “racial hierarchy” despite honoring him as a naturalist. It was shipped to North Dakota on “indefinite loan.”

Thomas Jefferson’s 187-year-old statue was crated and hauled out of New York City Hall that same year over his slave-owning past, with lawmakers calling him a “slaveholding pedophile” and offensive. Republican Joe Borelli accused Mayor de Blasio of a “progressive war on history.”

A statue of Thomas Jefferson, who was the third president of the United States, has been removed from New York City Hall after a unanimous vote by a committee, because of his links to the slave trade.

Latest videos here: https://t.co/WuXYjxfxy1 pic.twitter.com/M7UQ8W6hqa

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 23, 2021

Even anti-slavery heroes weren’t safe: In 2021, statues of abolitionist William Pitt in Edinburgh and biologist Thomas Henry Huxley at Imperial College London faced removal for vague “links to the British Empire” and papers that “might now be called ‘racist.’” One critic noted: “This is what happens when Edinburgh Council hands editorial control… to a secretive cabal of activists.”

But there’s hope on the horizon. Last year, President Trump signed an executive order to restore improperly removed statues and monuments, overhauling the Smithsonian to ditch “divisive, race-centered” narratives and return to “truthful and uplifting views of American history.”

The order, titled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History,” tasks officials with reviewing and reinstating monuments taken down in the past five years, aiming to make museums “educate rather than indoctrinate” by July 4, 2026. As the White House stated, many were removed to “perpetuate a false revision of history.”

This latest London fiasco underscores how leftist institutions continue their assault on Western heritage, using “reclamation” as cover to divide and demoralize. Many see it as cultural vandalism, a removal of the unvarnished story of our past – warts and all – for future generations.

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