Rare earth elements (REEs) are the backbone of modern technology, from EV motors and wind turbines to smartphones and precision-guided systems.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, breaks down where the world’s known rare earth reserves are located in 2025, highlighting how concentrated they are across a handful of countries.

The distribution is highly uneven. China alone holds nearly half of the global total, followed by Brazil’s sizable deposits. By contrast, many advanced economies have limited reserves.

The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

A Heavily Concentrated Reserve Base

China leads with 44.0 million metric tons, about 48% of the world total of 91.9 million metric tons. Brazil is a clear second at 21.0 million tons (23%), reflecting large ionic clay and hard-rock deposits that are still early in development.

India (6.9 million tons) and Australia (5.7 million tons) round out the top tier, while Russia (3.8 million tons) and Vietnam (3.5 million tons) are also ahead of the United States. Together, the top six countries account for roughly four-fifths of known reserves.

Advanced Economies: Small Shares, Big Demand

The United States holds just 1.9 million metric tons of rare earths (2%), underscoring its reliance on trade and midstream processing to secure supply. In recent months, the Trump administration has sought to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese materials by funding domestic mining projects, streamlining permits, and partnering with allies to diversify supply chains.

In October, President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to reduce tariffs in exchange for China maintaining the flow of rare earth exports.

Emerging Players

Canada (0.83 million tons) and the EU-adjacent Greenland (1.5 million tons) have meaningful but smaller bases.

Africa and the Arctic feature emerging sources: Tanzania (0.89 million tons) and South Africa (0.86 million tons) join Greenland as potential growth nodes if infrastructure and processing scale.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Why Rare Earths Are Critical to EV Motors on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Polish President Karol Nawrocki inaugurated the latest section of the “Via Baltica” highway between Poland and the Baltic States in late October in an event with his Lithuanian counterpart, with both highlighting the dual military purpose of this megaproject in an allusion to the “military Schengen”.

“Via Baltica” is one of the “Three Seas Initiative’s” (3SI) flagships, many of which complement the newer “military Schengen” initiative of facilitating the flow of troops and equipment eastward towards Russia.

Poland envisages the 3SI accelerating the revival of its long-lost Great Power status that’ll then result in it leading Russia’s containment all across Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) once the Ukrainian Conflict ends. It’s the most populous formerly communist member of NATO with the bloc’s third-largest military, just became a $1 trillion economy with its sights now set on a G20 seat, and has a history of regional leadership during the Commonwealth/“Rzeczpospolita” era, so these ambitions aren’t delusional.

Building upon the last point, most casual observers don’t know that the Commonwealth stretched as far north as parts of Latvia, which remained under its control till the Third Partition in 1795. Prior to that, it even controlled around half of Estonia from 1561-1629, after which it was ceded to Sweden. Suffice to say, what’s nowadays the nation-state of Lithuania was also part of the “Republic of the Two Nations” as the Commonwealth was officially known, thus giving Poland a substantial footprint in Baltic history.

The insight shared in the preceding two paragraphs enables the reader to better understand what Nawrocki told Lithuanian media during his maiden trip as president to that country last September about how “We as Poles, and I as the President of Poland, are aware that we are responsible for entire regions of Central Europe, including the Baltic States and Lithuania. Thanks to this visit and our cooperation, we feel that we are also building our military potential in solidarity, supported across the ocean.”

“Via Baltica” and the complementary “Rail Baltica”, both of which are behind schedule (especially the latter), will serve as the means for Poland to fulfill this dimension of its Great Power vision as elucidated by Nawrocki. The US’ post-Ukraine “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China could result in it redeploying some troops from CEE to there, but Poland would then likely replace the US’ reduced role through its ongoing militarization and 3SI-driven military logistical access to the Baltics.

The “EU Defense Line” that’s being built, which refers to the combination of the “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield” along NATO’s eastern border, might then be bolstered by Polish-led troop deployments seeing as how Poland would be integral to those three’s survival in any war with Russia. In that scenario, from Estonia down to the Polish-Belarusian-Ukrainian tripoint, Russia’s number one adversary wouldn’t necessarily be NATO as a whole but Poland. That would have important implications.

In brief, while Poland is closely allied with the Anglo-American Axis for reasons of shared anti-Russian goals, it’s not their puppet and might become even more strategically autonomous under Nawrocki. After all, he surprised many by recently saying that he’s ready to talk to Putin if Poland’s security depends on it, thus opening the door for a Polish-Russian modus vivendi in the future. Such an understanding might be the key to keeping the peace in CEE after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

So many seniors that were once so full of life are now just shadows of their former selves.  It can be really easy to assume that they are “just getting old” and that nothing unusual is happening to them.  

But the truth is that in so many cases the reason why America’s seniors are shutting down is because they are simply being overmedicated.  Our entire medical system has been designed to push pills, and so when our seniors seek medical help that is usually the solution that they are offered.  As you will see below, the proportion of our seniors that are on at least 8 pharmaceutical drugs is truly alarming.  Of course those that consume pharmaceutical drug cocktails on a daily basis for an extended period of time are quite likely to experience very serious consequences.

Most people don’t realize that modern terms such as “pharmacy” and “pharmaceutical” originally come from the Greek word “pharmakeia”…

The word “pharmacy” has a fascinating origin story that’s as complex as the practice itself.

It comes from the Greek word “pharmakeia”, which referred to “the practice of the druggist”. But here is the twist: “phármakon”, the root of the term, was a double-edged sword – it meant a plant or herb that could be used for either healing or harmful purposes, blurring the line between medicine and poison.

No society in the entire history of the planet has taken “pharmakeia” to the extremes that we have.

We are the most drugged nation that the world has ever seen, and this is particularly true for our seniors.

The Wall Street Journal recently interviewed an 83-year-old woman named Barbara Schmidt that has “filled prescriptions for more than a dozen different drugs in the past year”…

For years, Barbara Schmidt’s family feared an illness was behind a pattern of terrifying falls that repeatedly landed the 83-year-old great-grandmother in surgery with broken bones. Instead, Schmidt’s frequent tumbles might have been tied to something else: medications intended to make her better.

Schmidt, who lives with her husband of 65 years in Lewes, Del., filled prescriptions for more than a dozen different drugs in the past year, according to pharmacy and medical records.

After taking so many medications in such a short period of time, it really is a miracle that she is still alive today.

But she is far from alone.

The Wall Street Journal discovered that one out of every six seniors that is enrolled in Medicare’s drug benefit has been prescribed at least 8 different pharmaceutical drugs…

That isn’t unusual for America’s seniors, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Medicare data. One in six of the 46 million seniors enrolled in Medicare’s drug benefit, which pays for most drugs taken by older Americans, were prescribed eight or more medications.

Millions upon millions of our seniors are literally being drugged into oblivion.

One of the problems is that seniors often visit multiple physicians, and that can result in a lot of confusion…

Pharmacists who work with seniors say doctors might not be aware of their patients’ full medication list. Patients don’t always mention what their other doctors have prescribed when a history is taken, and specialists might not have access to a shared medical record.

The Journal analysis found that, among seniors taking eight or more drugs, it was common for the prescriptions to come from a large number of doctors.

Of course it isn’t just seniors that are being overmedicated.

One recent survey found that 70 percent of U.S. adults are currently taking at least one pharmaceutical drug, and nearly a quarter of U.S. adults are currently taking at least four pharmaceutical drugs…

Recent CivicScience poll results reveal the picture of maintenance prescription drug use in the U.S. has shifted dramatically. The number of U.S. adults who report taking at least one prescription medication per day is now 70%, a 14 percentage-point increase from 2019 data.

Additionally, the percentage of people taking four or more prescription medications daily in the US has increased by six percentage points, from 18% to 24%. An increasing number of prescriptions equals less and less wiggle room in budgets already tightened due to inflationary prices.

It is an insanely profitable industry, and that is why we constantly see ads for pharmaceutical drugs on television.

They desperately want more “customers”, and seniors are the easiest target.

According to the official CDC website, 89 percent of Americans that are 65 years or older are currently taking at least one pharmaceutical drug…

Among adults aged ≥65 years, men (89.0%) and women (89.3%) were equally likely to take prescription medication. Prescription medication use increased with age, from 48.4% for those aged 18–44 years to 89.2% for those aged ≥65 years, and this pattern of increasing use with age was observed for both men and women.

We take more pharmaceutical drugs than anyone else in the world.

So why is our life expectancy below average compared to other industrialized nations?

I think that is a really important question.

When our seniors go to see their doctors, they are often not properly informed about the potential side effects of the drugs that they are being prescribed.

Let me give you an example.

Zoloft is the number one antidepressant in the United States, but most of those that are taking it do not realize that it has an extremely long list of side effects.

But don’t just take my word for it.  The following comes from the official Zoloft website…

ZOLOFT may cause serious side effects. Call your healthcare provider right away if you have any of the following symptoms, or call 911 if there is an emergency.

1. Suicidal thoughts or actions:

ZOLOFT and other antidepressant medicines may increase suicidal thoughts or actions in some people 24 years of age and younger, especially within the first few months of treatment or when the dose is changed.

Depression or other serious mental illnesses are the most important causes of suicidal thoughts or actions.

Watch for these changes and call your healthcare provider right away if you notice new or sudden changes in mood, behavior, actions, thoughts, or feelings, especially if severe.

Pay particular attention to such changes when ZOLOFT is started or when the dose is changed.

Keep all follow-up visits with your healthcare provider and call between visits if you are worried about symptoms.

2. Call a doctor right away if you or a person you know who is taking ZOLOFT has any of the following symptoms, especially if they are new, worse, or worry you:

-thoughts about suicide or dying
-attempts to commit suicide
-new or worse depression
-new or worse anxiety
-feeling very agitated or restless
-panic attacks
-trouble sleeping (insomnia)
-new or worse irritability
-acting aggressive, being angry, or violent
-acting on dangerous impulses
-an extreme increase in activity and talking (mania)
-other unusual changes in behavior or mood

3. Serotonin Syndrome. This condition can be life-threatening and symptoms may include:

-agitation, hallucinations, coma, or other changes in mental status
-racing heartbeat, high or low blood pressure
-coordination problems or muscle twitching (overactive reflexes)
-nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea
-sweating or fever
-muscle rigidity

4. Increased chance of bleeding: ZOLOFT and other antidepressant medicines may increase your risk of bleeding or bruising, especially if you take the blood thinner warfarin (COUMADIN®, JANTOVEN®), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAIDs, like ibuprofen or naproxen), or aspirin.

5. Manic episodes. Symptoms may include:

-greatly increased energy
-racing thoughts
-unusually grand ideas
-severe trouble sleeping
-reckless behavior
-excessive happiness or irritability
-talking more or faster than usual

6. Seizures or convulsions.

7. Glaucoma (angle-closure glaucoma). ZOLOFT may cause a certain type of eye problem called angle-closure glaucoma. Call your healthcare provider if you have eye pain, changes in your vision, or swelling or redness in or around the eye. Only some people are at risk for these problems. You may want to undergo an eye examination to see if you are at risk and receive preventative treatment if you are.

8. Changes in appetite or weight.

9. Low salt (sodium) levels in the blood. Elderly people may be at greater risk for this. Symptoms may include headache, weakness or feeling unsteady, confusion, problems concentrating or thinking, or memory problems.

10. Sexual problems (dysfunction). Taking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), including ZOLOFT, may cause sexual problems.

There are many other drugs that literally list “death” as one of the potential side effects.

And earlier this year it was being reported that adverse reactions to pharmaceutical drugs have now become the third leading cause of death in the United States…

In 2021, the American Society of Pharmacovigilance (ASP) launched the Fourth Cause Campaign to raise awareness that adverse drug events (ADEs) were the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Today, new data confirm a troubling and unacceptable reality—ADEs have now surged to become the third leading cause of death. An internal analysis conducted by ASP projects that adverse drug events now account for over 250,000 deaths annually, surpassing stroke and respiratory disease, making it the third leading cause of death in the United States.

What we are witnessing is truly a national tragedy.

But the big news networks aren’t going to talk much about it, because the pharmaceutical companies are their biggest advertisers.

And our politicians are unlikely to push for major reform, because the pharmaceutical companies pour vast amounts of money into their campaigns.

Money is power, and the pharmaceutical industry is absolutely swimming in cash.

If you are waiting for major change to happen, you may find yourself waiting for quite a while.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Every three years, the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) evaluates how well 15-year-olds can apply reading skills to real-world situations.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, ranks the top-performing countries based on their average reading scores.

The data for this visualization comes from the OECD’s PISA 2022 results.

PISA measures reading proficiency in a student’s native or primary language of instruction, focusing on comprehension, interpretation, and evaluation of written texts. Top-performing systems typically score in the 550–560 range, while the OECD average is 476.

Singapore Leads by a Wide Margin

Singapore ranks first globally with an average reading score of 543, placing it comfortably ahead of all other countries. The city-state’s education system emphasizes structured literacy, teacher quality, and early intervention for struggling students. The country also leads the world in math performance.

Japan and Ireland follow at a distant second and third, both scoring 516.

Strong Showing from East Asia and Northern Europe

East Asian economies dominate the top of the ranking, with Taiwan, Korea, Macao, Hong Kong, and Japan all placing in the top 11. These systems often stress rigorous curricula, strong parental involvement, and consistent national standards.

Northern European countries such as Estonia and Finland also perform well, reflecting long-standing investments in equitable education and student well-being. Estonia’s score of 511 places it among the global elite despite its relatively small population.

English-Speaking Countries Cluster Near the Top

Several English-speaking countries also appear in the upper half of the ranking, including Canada, the United States, New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

Canada leads this group with a score of 507.

Notably, many large European economies, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, cluster around or just above the OECD average.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Wealthiest Nations in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Via The Cradle

Syrian citizens of the Alawite minority sect took to the streets on Sunday to protest against government violence and sectarian persecution, in line with a call made by the community’s religious leader a day earlier. 

Members of the minority sect protested in the Alawite neighborhoods of the central governorate of Homs, and in several towns and cities on the country’s coast, including Tartous, Jableh, and Latakia. Protests also erupted in Hama governorate, including in the city of Masyaf. Alawite Syrians held up banners reading “Federalism is the solution” and “the blood of Alawites is not cheap,” among other slogans.

The protesters also expressed anger over the killing of eight Alawite civilians and the injury of over a dozen others in a terror blast at a mosque a few days earlier. 

According to local media reports, government forces have attacked protesters in several areas, firing live ammunition to disperse crowds and making arrests at random. Reuters reports that “Three people were killed on Sunday when protests in Syria’s Alawite heartland of Latakia spiraled into gunfire and other violence, according to the province’s media office.”

“A widespread arrest campaign by the General Security forces is targeting citizens at random, and commercial shops in the Wadi al-Zahab neighborhood have been closed,” said a correspondent for Sham TV.

A correspondent for Kurdish outlet Hawar News Agency (ANHA) said “women were physically assaulted in the Zahraa neighborhood of Homs, to prevent them from participating.”

“Government forces attempted to forcibly disperse the gathering and imposed a siege on the area, preventing protesters from entering or leaving the square. Several surrounding roads were also blocked. They also assaulted protesters with beatings and gunfire in the coastal cities of Jableh and Baniyas,” the outlet said.

There are also reports of casualties among demonstrators. The Syrian Justice Archive (SJA) also says that at least three have been killed. Some reports said protesters threw stones at security forces, while others claimed hand grenades were found on one of the detained demonstrators.

The leader of the Supreme Alawite Islamic Council Ghazal Ghazal made the call for mass protest. “Our appointment [for protest] is tomorrow, Sunday, from 12:00 noon until 5:00 pm,” he said. 

“Silence over these crimes means nothing but more killing and collapse. The continuation of this situation without the implementation of swift, radical solutions and the imposition of international protection will only deepen the destruction they seek,” he added, calling for “every free and honorable person” to take part. 

Eight people were killed and 18 others injured, including children, in a bombing attack targeting an Alawite mosque in Homs on December 26. The blast hit Imam Ali Mosque in Homs’s Wadi al-Danab area during Friday prayer.

Thousands of Alawite civilians were massacred in March this year by Syrian government forces during a violent crackdown to quell an armed uprising carried out by members of the community and loyalists of the former government. 

Latakia: Footage shows HTS-led General Security militias storming the protest at Al-Azhari Roundabout with armored vehicles, then opening fire on peaceful protesters…

🚨🚨 Latakia: Footage shows HTS-led General Security militias storming the protest at Al-Azhari Roundabout with armored vehicles, then opening fire on peaceful protesters. https://t.co/KVZN3R2PPM pic.twitter.com/yQIz09kJzr

— Syria Justice Archive (@SyJusticeArc) December 28, 2025

Since then, the Alawite community has been disarmed by Damascus and has been left vulnerable to sectarian attacks and killing sprees. Young Alawite girls continue to disappear as a result of government-linked kidnapping networks, and Alawite men are regularly executed.

Thousands of Alawites took to the streets in protest across Syria’s coastal cities last month to demonstrate against government-sponsored sectarian violence. Security forces also shot at protesters.

The Syrian army is predominantly made up of what used to be known as the Al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Numerous other extremist factions with links to ISIS have been made official brigades in the new Syrian military since the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s government and the collapse of his army last year.

Christians and Druze have also been persecuted by forces affiliated with the Syrian Defense Ministry. 

After the killing of over 1,600 Alawite civilians in March, a government-appointed investigative committee released a report largely absolving Damascus from its direct role in the massacres. 

A similar probe was launched after hundreds of Druze civilians were killed in July during clashes between Druze militiamen and government troops. Groups affiliated with or incorporated into the Syrian army also have a long history of violent persecution against Kurds.

VIDEO | Protests in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia and the Homs countryside: Demonstrators chant “Federalism, federalism, we want federalism!” and “Alawite blood is not cheap.” pic.twitter.com/dVr0PxpCC4

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) December 28, 2025

Government violence against minorities in Syria over the past year has prompted many to call for federalism, or the division of the country along sectarian lines. 

Observers have also speculated that Israel, which established a large-scale occupation in south Syria after Assad was ousted, has been pushing for federalism in a bid to divide Syria and keep it weak.

“Our door to communication is open to all states active in the Syrian file. We extend our hand to anyone who guarantees us the achievement of our goals and our right to self-determination,” Ghazal told The Cradle in an interview published last week.

New footage shows Syria’s General Security Service escorting death squads toward Alawite protesters. This minority group is in the streets demanding an end to sectarian bloodshed, especially after an HTS splinter group bombed their mosque with an IED just days ago. pic.twitter.com/B2G7HiiOv8

— Karim Franceschi (@karimfranceschi) December 28, 2025

“Federalism is linked to a set of political, field, regional, and international factors. It is not a decision taken unilaterally or quickly. However, we are working to accelerate the wheel of salvation in a safe and responsible manner, in light of the grave violations being committed against us by the de facto authority,” he added.

For the seventh straight year, Visual Capitalist sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.

This year, Nick Routley analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.

By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.

The General Vibe of 2026

If 2025 was a year of adjustment – markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment – then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.

The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.

Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.

In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.

AI: Once Again, the Big Story

For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.

From Tool to Partner

Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.

This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.

After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.

Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.

Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave

Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.

S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected

Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:

The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.

Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).

Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues

Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.

The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.

Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats

The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.

The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades

Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.

Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.

Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions

Tariffs Become the New Normal

Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.

The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing

Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.

Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.

Gray-Zone Provocations Increase

The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.

This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.

Assessing the Consensus

History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.

What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.

Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We no longer care who’s behind the curtain because we’re in charge of our own lives now.

The Good News is people are realizing We’re On Our Own and starting to take action accordingly.

This article describes how people in one low-income county are localizing self-reliance rather than remain dependent on government subsidies.

The War on Poverty Failed Them–and They’re No Longer Waiting For Help (wsj.com, paywalled) Federal money and projects have come and gone so many times that McDowell County locals have little faith in the government to restore their fortunes; ‘We’re on our own.’

Here in the heart of America’s War on Poverty, some two-thirds of households with children still get food stamps, among the nation’s highest rates, and the estimated median household income hovers around $35,000. Nonfarm employment has plummeted 78% since 1975, according to data compiled by West Virginia University economist John Deskins, as the coal that once powered this rugged place is now mostly mined with machines, if at all, and no other industry has replaced it. The county has lost 67% of its residents over those years, the largest drop in West Virginia, its population dwindling from just over 51,000 to roughly 17,000.

With little faith left in government to break the cycle of poverty, those who remain say it’ss up to them to forge a brighter economic path.

“We’re on our own,” said Jason Tartt. “Nobody’s coming down here to save us.”

Tartt, the grandson of coal miners, is teaching locals, including retired miners and those recovering from opioid addiction, how to farm the forested hillsides. Down the winding, two-lane roads that connect communities, a pastor organizes bottled-water drives for neighbors whose tap water is undrinkable, while the local utility patches together funding for long-term solutions. A tiny, former coal town is trying to transform a shuttered Walmart into a new factory it hopes will jolt the local economy.

Their efforts are small in comparison to the government programs that have sought to revive McDowell County, and can’t make up for the prosperity that slipped away when the coal companies left. But they are spurring hope for renewal in some places, driven by one of the few constants here: resilience.

Nobody includes not just the federal government; it also includes Corporate America. Walmart pulls the plug on under-performing stores regardless of their local importance, and the rest of Corporate America is equally focused on next quarter’s profits.

Dependence breeds helplessness, passivity, addiction and the decay of community. There are alternatives. Those seeking to maintain the status quo dismiss alternatives that don’t require Wall Street, federal monies and Corporate America ownership because those institutions are buttering their bread.

But out in the real world, there are alternatives–underfunded, dismissed as impractical, etc., but real nonetheless, for example: Regenerative Farmers of America (6:19 minutes) (via Chad D.)

As I observe in my book on Self-Reliance in the 21st Century, we all have to start somewhere, and as the Chinese saying put it, the journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. (A thousand li in the original, of course.)

Self-reliance sounds like an individual journey, but it’s fundamentally a community effort as no one person can fulfill every function. As the number of people participating expands, the self-reliance of each participant expands, too.

Those working on self-reliance tend to lead by example. Get the work done, share the results, keep moving forward. There’s no jetting around to meetings and conferences, just do the work on the ground. Get it done, learn from mistakes and from others’ experiences, experiment to identify what works best in local conditions.

When we realize we really are on our own, things change for the better. We start taking full responsibility for our health, work, goals and integrity. We start thinking through Plans A, B, and if things unravel, Plan C. We lose interest in addictive technologies and substances and other hindrances. We start noticing improvements and taking well-earned pride in them.

We no longer care who’s behind the curtain because we’re in charge of our own lives now.

*  *  *

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Across the United States, there were 22,830 homicides in 2023, averaging 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.

Homicide rates vary widely across American cities, influenced by factors such as poverty, inequality, gun laws, and local policing strategies.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows the top 40 U.S. cities by their homicide rate per 100,000 residents and the total number of homicides, based on the latest reported data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Where Homicide Rates Are Highest in America

Cities in the South and Midwest tend to show higher homicide rates, reflecting a combination of economic stress, structural inequality, and regional differences in firearm access and enforcement.

The table below ranks the top 40 U.S. cities by homicide rate:

New Orleans ranks first, with a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people. Memphis and St. Louis follow closely, each reporting rates above 38 per 100,000. While these cities have a relatively low number of total homicides, their small population sizes place them among the most violent cities in the country.

In terms of total homicides, Chicago ranks first with more than 800 homicides, followed by Los Angeles and Houston. Despite the high totals, these cities have relatively lower rates due to their large populations.

Many Southern and Western states with high homicide rates also rank highly in gun-related deaths per 100,000 people, reflecting a combination of firearm availability, gun ownership rates, and broader socioeconomic challenges.

If you found this infographic interesting, see this graphic on America’s Most Dangerous Cities on Voronoi.

Authored by JoJo Novaes & Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Can you imagine rewinding your biological clock by more than two years in just eight weeks, simply by adjusting your diet and lifestyle? It might be possible.

A study published in Aging found that foods rich in methylated adaptogens significantly reduced epigenetic age. In an eight-week randomized controlled trial, male participants aged 50 to 72 who adopted a methylation-focused diet experienced a decrease in epigenetic age of 2.04 years from baseline. Meanwhile, the control group aged forward by an average of 1.10 years, creating a gap of 3.14 years between the two groups.

Even after accounting for weight changes or baseline epigenetic ages, the results remained strong, indicating that these foods directly influence aging markers.

Epigenetic age reveals how old your cells appear, with DNA methylation patterns serving as a window into cellular aging.

Nutritionist Tsai Yi-fang from Taiwan’s Keyi Nutrition Consultation Center told The Epoch Times on the “Health 1+1” program that methylation is like a toggle switch for your DNA. If you add a methyl group, a gene’s function might shut off; if you remove one, that function flips on. For instance, heavy methylation of tumor suppressor genes could impair their ability to suppress cancer. On the flip side, low methylation of inflammation genes can ramp up your body’s inflammatory response.

Striking the right balance is key—too much or too little methylation can spell trouble.

Top 6 Anti-Aging Superfoods

The study highlights six foods—turmeric, rosemary, garlic, berries, green tea, and oolong tea—that are rich in phytochemicals called methyl adaptogens. These compounds fine-tune DNA methylation, keeping genes in a healthy state and lowering disease risk. Each food also brings unique benefits:

• Turmeric: Packed with curcumin, a potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that supports liver health and is especially effective for improving non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
• Berries: Loaded with anthocyanins and vitamin C, berries boast exceptional antioxidant power. Bilberries enhance eye health, grapes support cardiovascular wellness, and cranberries promote urinary tract health.
• Garlic: With antibacterial, antiviral, and immune-regulating properties, garlic strengthens overall health and helps manage conditions such as small intestinal bacterial overgrowth.
• Rosemary: Rich in rosmarinic acid, a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that can relieve headaches, stomach pain, nervous tension, and improve mood and memory.
• Green Tea and Oolong Tea: Both are rich in catechins and polyphenols, providing robust antioxidant and anti-inflammatory benefits.

Additional Methylation-Regulating Foods

In addition to the six foods highlighted in the study, Tsai noted additional foods that regulate methylation:

Beets: Rich in betaine and folate, beets act as methyl donors, supporting methylation regulation in the body, particularly beneficial for people with low methylation levels.

Quinoa: Similar to beets, quinoa is a source of betaine, which provides methyl groups to support a healthy methylation cycle.

Cruciferous Vegetables: Such as broccoli, kale, bok choy, and cabbage, contain high levels of sulforaphane, which influences methylation patterns by regulating DNA methyltransferases (a large family of enzymes) and supports liver detoxification.

Spinach: A leafy green high in folate, spinach also contains magnesium and vitamin B6, essential nutrients for the methylation cycle. Additionally, it provides antioxidants that protect DNA from external damage.

Avocado: Beyond being rich in folate and vitamin B6, avocados contain healthy fatty acids that support brain function and methylation regulation, as well as high levels of glutathione, which aids liver detoxification.

Mushrooms: Mushrooms are packed with vitamins and contain ergothioneine, an antioxidant that protects methyltransferases from oxidative damage.

Methylation-Regulating Herbs

Beyond food, certain herbs also possess methylation-regulating and anti-aging properties, such as Rhodiola rosea and Ashwagandha. However, it’s essential to consult a doctor before taking herbs to ensure they are suitable for your constitution, as improper use may harm health.

Rhodiola Rosea: Balances stress hormones, supports mitochondrial methylation activity, and may protect brain tissue from oxidative stress. Clinical trials have shown that Rhodiola rosea can help alleviate physical and mental symptoms associated with stress and overexertion.

Ashwagandha: Rich in withanolides and alkaloids, Ashwagandha may influence methylation by modulating stress response.

Unhealthy Habits That Hasten Aging

Alongside eating beneficial foods, steering clear of habits that hasten aging is just as vital, Tsai said.

• Chronic Sleep Deprivation and Late Nights: Regularly staying up late or insufficient sleep increases oxidative stress, which damages DNA and proteins, speeding up the aging process.
• Chronic Stress: Persistent stress contributes to bodily damage and accelerates the aging process.
• Lack of Exercise or Overexertion: A sedentary lifestyle or excessive exercise can increase oxidative stress, promoting premature aging.

Foods to Avoid

• Foods High in Sugar: A diet high in sugar fuels glycation, generating harmful advanced glycation end-products that contribute to the aging process.
• Processed Foods: Often laden with nitrites and other carcinogenic substances, processed foods can harm cellular health and increase aging markers.
• Artificial Sweeteners: Disrupt the gut microbiome, potentially causing metabolic imbalances that contribute to aging.

Choosing High-Quality Carbohydrates

Tsai noted the crucial role of high-quality carbohydrates in supporting healthy aging. According to the Nurses’ Health Study, which analyzed dietary data from 47,513 women, long-term intake of nutrient-dense carbohydrates—such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and legumes—was linked to improved health in older age. These foods offer key benefits:

• Nutrient-Dense: Rich in dietary fiber, vitamins, and minerals, they support overall wellness and vitality.
• Low-Glycemic Index: Helps maintain stable blood sugar levels, preventing spikes that can accelerate aging.
• Anti-Inflammatory Effects: Reduces inflammation, a major contributor to age-related diseases.

Nutritionist’s Secrets to Youthful Vitality

Tsai shared her proven strategies for maintaining a vibrant, youthful glow through simple, sustainable lifestyle choices:

• Consistent Exercise: Tsai runs twice a week for an hour, alternating fast and slow paces to keep her metabolism humming. Whether it’s cardio or strength training, she recommends choosing an exercise you enjoy and can maintain consistently for long-term benefits.
• Robust Sun Protection: To protect against aging UV rays, Tsai advises using sunscreen and wearing sunglasses during midday or afternoon outings. In polluted urban areas, she recommends wearing a mask to block harmful fine particles that can damage health.
• Clean, Light Eating: Even with frequent meals out, Tsai ensures home-cooked dishes are light and wholesome, allowing her body space to detoxify and rejuvenate.
• Stress Reduction: Chronic stress is a silent accelerator of aging. By scheduling time for relaxation and learning to adapt to stress, Tsai nurtures both mental and physical well-being.

Reversing the clock doesn’t require costly supplements. The true secret lies in daily habits: savor antioxidant-rich, gene-regulating foods, pair them with regular exercise, ample sleep, and stress relief, and keep a positive mindset. Begin now to cultivate lasting vitality!

Public approval of political leaders reflects a mix of economic conditions, policy decisions, and broader voter sentiment. As 2025 comes to a close, approval ratings offer a snapshot of how leaders around the world are perceived heading into 2026.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, ranks major global leaders by approval rating, based on surveys conducted between December 8 and 14, 2025, by Morning Consult.

High Approval at the Top, but Fewer Standouts

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi ranks first overall, with 71% approval heading into 2026. Although still well ahead of peers, his approval declined modestly from 75% in January 2025.

A similar pattern appears elsewhere: even leaders near the top of the rankings faced gradual erosion in support over the year, reflecting persistent inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and political fatigue among voters.

Approval Gains Reflect New Leadership, Not Turnarounds

Japan, South Korea, Canada, Austria, and Belgium all show higher approval ratings at the end of 2025, but these increases reflect new leaders replacing unpopular predecessors.

Much of Europe enters 2026 with leaders facing net-negative approval. France’s Emmanuel Macron ranks last, with approval in the low teens and disapproval near 80%. The UK’s Keir Starmer, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, and several Nordic leaders also post approval ratings in the 30% range or lower.

In the United States, Donald Trump sits in the middle of the ranking, with approval and disapproval nearly evenly split.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Top Nations by GDP Per Capita Growth on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.