Goldman analyst Jacqueline Du published her field trip notes after speaking with six C-level management teams at robotics companies across Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in recent days. The companies she met with include Unitree, Mechmind, Fourier, LimX Dynamics, UBTech, EngineAI, Paxini, and Orbbec.

“Overall, we see the humanoid robot industry is experiencing a clear pivot towards ‘dedicated-purpose’ commercial deployments,” Du told clients on Thursday morning.

Home humanoid robots are getting closer.

Shenzhen MindOne Robotics is testing their robot brain on the Unitree G1, and it looks like the G1 has already learned to do human-like household chores.
Watering plants, moving packages, cleaning mattresses, tidying up, etc.

Honestly,… pic.twitter.com/hPddAaQ0hd

— CyberRobo (@CyberRobooo) November 14, 2025

She continued: “This strategic focus leverages current, achievable task planning, mobility and interaction capabilities, leading to more reliable and immediate deployment in specific vertical applications. Examples include security patrolling, guiding/guest services in public venues, and logistics tasks such as pick-and-place and sorting simple items in factories.”

Du said humanoid robot shipments are set to accelerate from estimated 2025 global volumes of around 15,000 to 20,000 units to “multi-fold increases in shipment volumes into 2026-2027E.”

Here are more of Du’s key takeaways from the AI robotics field trip in China:

Targeting a multi-fold increase in shipment volumes into 2026-2027E

Based on the collective feedback from the major humanoid robot players and key supply chain companies we met on this trip, we believe global humanoid robot shipments in 2025 might have reached around 15,000-20,000 units vs. GSe of 20,000 (report link) and third-party data of 13,000-16,000 (see link and link), with Chinese players contributing to the bulk of these volumes at the moment, which came from scientific study, robotics AI training, education, entertainment/stage performance, and data factory demand last year. At such an early and nascent stage of the humanoid robot market, the exact shipment figures are less critical than the overall growth trajectory and the rapid pace of technological development in our view. For the 2026-2027 outlook, these leading humanoid robot manufacturers anticipate multi-fold increases in shipments. Following the 2025 figures, which range from several hundreds to thousands of units, their targets for 2026 and 2027 are set in the thousands to tens of thousands. This projected acceleration is underpinned by an increasingly mature supply chain, optimized cost curves, and expanding application opportunities. However, achieving these targets is anticipated to be challenged by the imperative for robust production consistency and the implementation of novel, multi-stage testing protocols inherent to this nascent industry.

Encouraging progress in motion control with rapid iterations

We watched the live demos of the published products of these humanoid robot makers, which in our view revealed significant advancements in motion control, exhibiting enhanced robustness and flexibility across both wheeled upper-body platforms and full bipedal systems. This represents a substantial improvement compared to their performance in the preceding year. One manufacturer asserted the achievement of ‘cerebellum-level’ whole-body control, substantiated by two practical evaluation criteria: the robot’s ability to navigate previously unmapped terrains and its capacity for comprehensive remote control of the entire body, rather than segmented upper or lower body control. Furthermore, insights from multiple companies indicate an accelerated product iteration cycle for humanoid platforms, now reaching approximately 6-8 months per generation. This rapid iteration is largely attributed to an 80-90% in-house component design capability, which is crucial for ensuring seamless hardware-software integration and optimizing their respective performance’ upper limits’ within condensed R&D and testing cycles.

Clear pivot towards “dedicated-purpose” commercial deployments

The current reliance on simulated and synthetic data for pre-training with a significant ‘sim-to-real’ gap remains a challenge, with simulated accuracies of 80-90% often collapsing to below 50% in real-world scenarios. As both large-scale high quality real-world data collection and world model approach requires time, leading Chinese humanoid robot developers are increasingly prioritizing “dedicated-purpose” commercial deployments. These applications, such as security patrolling and guest services in public venues (e.g., hotels, banks, museums, exhibition centers, auto dealerships, and supermarkets), effectively utilize existing task planning, mobility and interaction capabilities while circumventing the complexities of highly dexterous manipulation. Within industrial applications, the utility of humanoid robots requiring dexterous hands or grippers is presently confined to logistics tasks like box movement and simple item sorting, primarily due to AI limitations in addressing unpredictable corner cases in factory environments.

Advancing robot intelligence through hybrid AI and data strategies

In the near term, humanoid robot manufacturers are increasingly standardizing their approach by integrating with established Large Language Model (LLM) and Vision-Language Model (VLM) stacks, such as those offered by Alibaba (Qwen), Doubao, and Tencent. This strategic alignment positions proprietary data engines as the critical differentiator for developing deployable robotic intelligence. High-quality real-world data is identified as the primary constraint bridging the gap between mature hardware technologies and scalable, practical applications. Consequently, companies are engaged in a ‘data recipe’ arms race, with differentiation driven by their target end-applications. While all robot OEMs are pursuing data collection strategies, they converge on varying mixes of three primary data inputs: (1) teleoperated human or expert demonstrations, which offer high control but are typically expensive for imitation learning; (2) simulation, which is cost-effective per additional sample but suffers from imperfect realism; and (3) real-world video datasets, which provide the highest data availability but may exhibit poor translation to real-world accuracy. From this trip, increasingly we heard more mentions of the world model approach which may potentially empower robots with a form of common sense about their environment, moving them beyond reactive behaviors to proactive, intelligent agents capable of complex planning and adaptation.

Differentiated profit models for 2C and 2B markets

A range of profit models has emerged, broadly categorized by their target markets: 2C (business-to-consumer) and 2B (business-to-business) applications.

For companies targeting 2C applications, the primary focus is on delivering differentiated functionality and enhanced user experience. This often involves emphasizing “emotional value” and capturing specialized vertical niches where unique features or interactions can command a premium. The goal is to create a product that stands out through its capabilities and the user’s engagement with it.

In contrast, companies targeting 2B applications anchor their pricing strategies to the customer’s Return on Investment (ROI). This typically involves demonstrating how the robot can improve throughput, enhance efficiency, or reduce labor costs. For instance, UBTech has indicated that in sorting and logistics applications, customers are willing to invest in robots once they achieve approximately 50% of a human worker’s throughput. This level of performance can lead to a payback period of around two years, assuming a run-time of about 10 hours per day. Even a three-year payback period is considered acceptable by customers operating in particularly labor-constrained environments, highlighting the value proposition of automation in addressing critical operational challenges.

Investment implications: We recommend being selective; Buy Sanhua H and Sell Moon’s Electric

2026 overall may shape up to be a critical “proof-of-volume and expectation-reset” year, as we believe investors likely will continue to value key supply chain stocks on (i) whether milestone volume expectations (e.g., the “one million robots” narrative) get revised up or not, which is likely driven by the evolution pace of AI generalization capability or effective data/model strategies; and (ii) evolving market share and content per robot for individual supply chain companies. Given high market optimisms and long run expectations have been baked into the current share price per our tests (see Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ): Downgrade Sanhua A to Neutral on recent outperformance; expectations for humanoid robots are too high, too soon and Moons’ Electric (603728.SS): D/G to Sell on continuously evolving dexterous hand technology roadmap and narrowed opportunity for coreless motor), we recommend staying selective. Among our coverage, we are Buy-rated on Sanhua H, Inovance and Shuanghuan, Neutral-rated on Sanhua A, LeaderDrive and Best Precision. We are Sell-rated on Moon’s Electric.

Separately, in the U.S., Tesla said it is on track to begin volume production of the Cybercab in 2026, with Optimus humanoid robot output “hopefully” starting toward the end of the year.

Next week, we are expected to conduct our own field trip of AI robotics and counter-AUS companies at undisclosed locations. We’ll see how that turns out – watching the rise of Skynet in real-time.

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is seeking to change a rule that determines eligibility for permanent residency—commonly known as a green card—based on whether an applicant is considered a “public charge,” someone who is likely to depend primarily on public benefits.

That rule—known as the public charge ground of inadmissibility—generally applies to green card applicants, with the exception of certain categories such as refugees and asylum seekers.

In 2022, 54 percent of households headed by immigrants—naturalized, legal, and illegal—used one or more major welfare programs. That’s compared to 39 percent of U.S.-born households, according to Census Bureau data.

In November 2025, DHS issued a proposal to repeal existing public charge regulations and institute a broader, discretionary standard.

The proposed policy change would allow immigration officials to take into account the use of a wider range of public benefits—including food stamps, Medicaid, and housing assistance—to determine whether a green card applicant will become a public charge.

In its notice of proposed rulemaking, DHS states its goal is to encourage self-reliance and prevent public benefits from becoming an incentive for immigration.

Critics say the proposed policy change will lead to confusion and “decreased participation in public benefit programs” by people who need them.

The mandatory public comment period for the proposed rule ended on Dec. 19, 2025, drawing more than 8,800 comments, including a letter of objection signed by the attorneys general of 20 states. DHS has now entered a mandatory review phase in which it must read and address the substantive points raised by the public.

Once this review is complete, which can take months, the government may modify the rule based on the feedback received before a final rule is published and officially takes effect.

Here’s what we know about the proposed changes.

Key Changes

The changes are designed to undo what the proposal calls “unduly restrictive” public charge rules. Under the old rules, put in place under the Biden administration in 2022, officers couldn’t consider whether green card applicants used benefits such as food stamps (SNAP), the Children’s Health Insurance Program, Medicaid, or housing assistance.

The only benefits officers could take into account were cash benefit programs that provide direct, monthly payments intended to cover basic needs, such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and Supplemental Security Income, as well as long-term care in a facility such as a nursing home, when the government pays for it.

Under the new proposal, officers would also be empowered to consider all individualized, case-specific facts and any data relevant to a person’s self-sufficiency.

The changes will restore a process that “trusts in and relies on DHS officers’ good judgment and sound discretion as envisioned by Congress,” the proposal says.

The new DHS proposal also clarifies that receiving “any means‑tested public benefit” is considered a breach of the public charge bond—a monetary guarantee, made by a citizen or U.S. company, that a green card applicant will not become a public charge.

Under the new proposal, an affidavit of support also carries less weight.

Currently, officers must “favorably consider” any eligible affidavit of support—an agreement in which a U.S. citizen, a green card holder, or a company pledges to provide financial backing to the applicant, if needed.

The new rule would also eliminate protection for immigrants who used benefits while they were in certain exempt categories.

For some of those categories, there is a path to citizenship that is also exempt from the public charge rule. For others, there is not—including those with Temporary Protected Status, which is a temporary stay of deportation provided to nationals of certain countries that are undergoing armed conflict, disaster, or other extraordinary conditions.

Under the 2022 rule, people with Temporary Protected Status were shielded from having public benefits used against them, even if they later moved into a non-protected status. The new proposal would allow DHS to consider an applicant’s use of public benefits at any time, regardless of when those benefits were received.

Household Focus

The new policy could cut government spending by about $8.97 billion each year because of people who would stop or avoid enrolling in public benefits, DHS stated in its proposal. That includes $5.29 billion less from the federal government and $3.68 billion less from states.

Under current rules, an applicant is mostly evaluated individually, whereas the new rule takes into account an applicant’s family members living in the same household, including a mixed-status household, which consists of people with different immigration and citizenship statuses.

There were an estimated 4.7 million mixed-status households in the United States in 2022, according to a Center for Migration Studies analysis. Mixed-status households receive more than $51 billion annually in public benefits, according to an analysis by The Epoch Times, based on DHS data.

However, public benefit use can’t be considered against immigrants in mixed-status households who entered the United States as refugees or asylum seekers. Between 1990 and 2022, the United States has welcomed more than 2.1 million refugees and accepted more than 800,000 asylees, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

DHS said the new rule could impact some U.S. citizens who live in mixed-status households. It could penalize green card applicants if direct family members in the household, including U.S. citizens, receive public benefits. Those U.S. citizens may decide to avoid public benefits so the green card applicant isn’t penalized.

Within mixed-status households, roughly 9.2 million individuals receive food stamps, Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and Supplemental Security Income. And about 343,000 households receive Federal Rental Assistance, according to DHS data.

DHS estimated that about 950,000 individuals, or 10 percent, will likely stop participating in or choose not to apply for public benefit programs if the current proposal is implemented.

Studies found large drops in benefit enrollment after the 1996 welfare reform law, with decreases ranging from 21 to 54 percent, DHS noted.

The new proposal acknowledged the changes could also affect organizations that rely on public benefit funds. These include hospitals and nonprofits tied to Medicaid, companies that make medical supplies and drugs, grocery stores that accept SNAP benefits, farmers who supply SNAP-eligible foods, and landlords involved in federally funded housing programs.

Evolution of the Policy

The United States has used “public charge” as grounds for rejecting permanent residency applications since the 19th century. The Immigration Act of 1882 specified that aliens who became public charges within a year of arriving in the United States would be deported.

For more than a century, immigration officers were given broad discretion, known as the “totality of the circumstances” framework.

Then, in 1996, Congress set new requirements and policy goals. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 required officers to consider, “at a minimum,” five statutory factors: age, health, family status, financial situation, and education and skills.

Read the rest here…

Submitted by @RyanMaue,

A meteorologist’s main purpose: keep you alive, and marked safe.✅

There is nothing we can do to stop this epic week of weather, and believe me, I have been trying to find silver linings or rays of sunlight.

So, the best preparation is fresh, accurate, and expert information from trusted sources.

While every new weather model run (alphabet soup of acronyms) shows slight adjustments in who gets the most freezing rain (ice) and snowfall❄️ there is little doubt about the aftermath of the massive ice storm: hazardous cold like January 21, 1985 when the United States 🇺🇸 average low temperature sunk to 4°F.

Many of these record lows are still standing.

⚠️You should be prepared for extended power outages with subzero temperatures outdoors. Think about where you can go, what you can do, and who needs even more help to survive this week ahead. This is not hype or a joke.

Temperature Analysis January 21, 1985 | PRISM Oregon State

Let’s dig in (or out) of this Winter Storm that is actually 2 waves of moisture that finally consolidate into a rather powerful Nor’easter.

If you’re younger than 40 years old, then you may be experiencing the worst winter weather of your lifetime depending upon where you are over the next 10-14 days.

Plan for extended power outages with brutally cold temperatures for many days. pic.twitter.com/GYaXpU3A8Z

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

ECMWF 12z HRES Precipitation Type and Intensity

A massive “slug of moisture” will stream out of the subtropical Pacific and then the Gulf of Mexico to combine into an “atmospheric river”. Normally that would be heavy rain and maybe snowfall where the air is below freezing.

Not this time — we will have extremely cold Arctic air flooding southward: and the atmospheric river will go up and over the more dense cold air near the surface. When the warmer subtropical moisture falls through the : it turns to snow or freezing rain or sleet.

Total Snowfall Amounts (NOAA Blend of Models — trust this b/c it includes the ECMWF or Euro flagship model) may be an underestimate (!)

Freezing Rain Expected from Winter Storm

We can partition the precipitation (called QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast) into rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain by using the temperature and humidity of the column of air above the surface.

These amounts forecast by ECMWF 12z will not all immediately freeze on contact with surfaces like trees and power lines, but a LOT of it will accrete, and cause potentially catastrophic damage.

The National Weather Service forecasts 0.25″ to 0.5″ inch of ice accumulating across across Texas, and nearly an inch in northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Then, cold air damming by the Appalachians keeps enough cold air at the surface (easterly winds) to put Atlanta under threat of significant icing. Not good!

After a sequence of events beginning in the Western Pacific Ocean led to disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, a massive persistent circulation pattern has allowed the formation of extreme “cold pools” over Canada 🇨🇦 with air temperatures brutal cold throughout the entire troposphere: -40°F near the surface and -40°F at the mid-way point of 500 millibars.

The Polar Vortex Unleashed with multiple “lobes” dropping south and whipping through like a pendulum: next 7-days

Two swings of the “wrecking ball” from the tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Ontario, Canada 🇨🇦

The second Arctic blast is actually partly triggered by a PV anomaly in the Arctic north of Greenland that gets stretched, and descends the chute into 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EiB8v0dmeL

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

Arctic Blast 1.0 — Frigid as temperatures plummet into Texas and the Deep South. Absolutely brutal in the Midwest and Great Lakes with minus 20s and minus 30s — and that’s not the wind chill.

Low Temperatures on Saturday

Low Temperatures on Sunday

5°F in Dallas, Texas Monday morning –> frigid

But we are not done — the Polar Vortex anchored over Canada reloads with another massive blast of cold air into next week. That makes 3 total if you are counting!

Over the next week –>

Arctic Blast 1.0 and Arctic Blast 2.0 merge
into Super Arctic Blast
that will entomb the Eastern U.S. into a frigid hellscape.

Temperatures 35°F to 45°F below normal will cripple 🇺🇸 east of the Mississippi.

This is all-time historic vintage cold. pic.twitter.com/zNugF2QAqo

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

You can see the evolution of the air mass colored by “deviation from normal” or anomaly, which I’ve color coded using a Barney and Baby Bop theme. This is on par with the O.G. polar vortex from January 2014 when social media (Twitter) weather was just getting started.

watch the animation here

And, that will be the end of January, and we will make it!

I made all of these maps and animations (from scratch w/raw data and code) and actually 90% of the weather maps that you see on social media. I don’t “dumb down” anything for my audience because I assume everyone has a PhD in something.

You can receive even MORE in depth weather articles at my growing Substack blog (Weather Trader)

Trump said on Thursday he had secured “total and permanent” US access to Greenland in a deal with NATO, whose head said allies would have to step up their commitment to Arctic security to ward off threats from Russia and China. 

News of a framework deal came as Trump backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out taking Greenland by force, bringing to an end what was brewing to be the biggest rupture in transatlantic ties in decades. Yet despite the optimism, details of any agreement were unclear and Denmark insisted its sovereignty over the island was not up for discussion. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc’s U.S. relations had “taken a big blow” in the past week, as EU leaders met for an emergency summit.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen welcomed Trump’s comments but said he was still in the dark on many aspects.

“I don’t know what there is in the agreement, or the deal, about my country,” Nielsen told reporters in the capital Nuuk. 

“We are ready to discuss a lot of things and we are ready to negotiate a better partnership and so on. But sovereignty is a red line,” he said, when asked about reports that Trump was seeking control of areas around U.S. military bases in Greenland as part of a wider deal.

“We cannot cross the red lines. We have to respect our territorial integrity. We have to respect international law and sovereignty.”

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on his return from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said a new deal was being negotiated that would be “much more generous to the United States, so much more generous.” And while he skirted questions on sovereignty, Trump said: “We have to have the ability to do exactly what we want to do.”

Earlier Trump told Fox Business Network the deal would essentially bring “total access” for the United States. “There’s no end, there’s no time limit.”

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Trump had agreed in Davos on further talks between the U.S., Denmark and Greenland on updating a 1951 agreement that governs U.S. military access and presence on the Arctic island. The framework they discussed also calls for prohibiting Chinese and Russian investments in Greenland, the person said.

Another source familiar with the matter said what had been agreed was “a frame on which to build,” adding that “anything being reported on specific details is speculative.”

Rutte told Reuters in Davos it was now up to NATO’s senior commanders to work through the details of extra security requirements.

“I have no doubt we can do this quite fast. Certainly, I would hope for 2026, I hope even early in 2026,” he said.

Meanwhile, the country that Greenland (semi-autonomously) belongs to, remains fully in the dark: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said no negotiations had been held with NATO regarding the sovereignty of Greenland.

“It is still a difficult and serious situation, but progress has also been made in the sense that we have now got things where they need to be. Namely that we can discuss how we promote common security in the Arctic region,” she said.

Speaking later ahead of the emergency summit of EU leaders, Frederiksen called for a “permanent presence of NATO in the Arctic region, including around Greenland.”

Kallas said “disagreements that allies have between them, like Europe and America, are just benefiting our adversaries who are looking and enjoying the view.”

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said he hoped allies could put together a plan to boost Arctic security by a NATO summit in Ankara in July. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Rutte on Thursday that the UK stood ready to play its full part in ensuring security in the Arctic.

After meeting with Rutte, Trump said there could be a deal that satisfies his desire for a “Golden Dome” missile-defence system and access to critical minerals while blocking what he says are Russia and China’s ambitions in the Arctic. 

Adding to the confusion, Rutte said minerals exploitation was not discussed in his meeting with Trump, even though Trump said that it has been.Specific negotiations over the Arctic island would continue between the United States, Denmark and Greenland itself, he said.

The 1951 agreement established the U.S. right to construct military bases in Greenland and move around freely in Greenlandic territory. This is still the case as long as Denmark and Greenland are informed of its actions. Washington has a base at Pituffik in northern Greenland.

“It is important to clarify that the U.S. had 17 bases during the Cold War and much greater activity. So that is already possible now under the current agreement,” said Marc Jacobsen, a professor at the Royal Danish Defence College.

“I think there will be concrete discussions about Golden Dome, and I think there will be concrete discussions about Russia and China not being welcome in Greenland.”

Separately, China’s Foreign Ministry told Reuters on Friday that claims China is a threat are “baseless”, when asked to respond to the Arctic comments. At the same time, the ministry said that China opposes other countries using it as “an excuse” to push their own agenda.

China has repeatedly said its scientific expeditions in the Arctic and commercial shipping operations in the region followed international treaties and laws, accusing the West of distorting facts and hyping up its activities as clues to military intent. Last week, the state-backed Global Times newspaper said in an editorial that it ” firmly opposed attempts by the United States and Europe to label China with terms such as ‘military threat,’ ‘resource grabber’ or ‘rule breaker’ in Arctic affairs.”

Eslewhere, the president of the European Parliament said the European Union will likely resume work on a trade deal with the United States after Trump took back his tariff threats. The parliament decided this week to suspend work on the deal because of Trump’s threats. However, diplomats told Reuters EU leaders will rethink U.S. relations as the Greenland episode has badly shaken confidence in the transatlantic ties. Governments remain wary of another change of mind by Trump, who is increasingly seen as a bully whom Europe will have to stand up to, they said.

Residents in the Greenland capital, Nuuk, are also wary.

“It’s all very confusing,” said pensioner Jesper Muller. “One hour we are, well, almost at war. Next hour everything is fine and beautiful, and I think it’s very hard to imagine that you can build anything on it.”

Nobody asked Muller if he would rather have gotten $10 million and agree, together with the other 57,000 residents, to cede Greenland to the US.

Update (1230ET): Chatter about the potential intervention overnight in Japanese Yen (as we detailed below) is growing and has sparked a dramatic bid for the Japanese currency against the dollar…

…crashing the US Dollar Index…

And in case you wondered why an equity trader might care about chaos in the Japanese currency, here’s SocGen to explain:

Since the summer 2024 equity market sell-off (the yen carry-trade unwind)…there has been a curious relationship between the Japanese currency and the performance of short-term equity volatility in the US.

The gray line represents the returns from buying very short-term volatility on S&P500, and this part of the volatility surface has significantly underperformed since June 2025.

If the relationship is to continue, perhaps a stronger trade-weighted yen will be an important catalyst for a risk-off sentiment for the broader equity markets.

*  *  *

Technically, the Bank of Japan actions overnight should be seen as “a hawkish hold”, according to Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk-head Rich Privorotsky.

The Bank raised its growth estimate and maintained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday even as it kept interest rates steady, signaling its confidence a moderate recovery would justify raising still-low borrowing costs further.

While Ueda had suggested that overall inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike.

“April is a month where there’s relatively high numbers of price revisions,” Ueda said.

“We have a certain amount of interest in that, and while it’s not the most important factor in deciding the next rate hike, it’s one of the factors.”

The BOJ gave other signs of a more robust view, too.

It softened its assessment of economic risks as they are now generally balanced. With the negative impact of US tariffs receding, the bank cut the wording that it needs to watch if the economic outlook will materialize “without any preconceptions.”

However, Governor Ueda’s press conference leaned cautious on market functioning, flagging discomfort with the pace of long end moves and a willingness to act if volatility becomes disorderly.

Ueda said the central bank may conduct operations to smooth volatility in the bond market in a nimble fashion if needed, while indicating that exceptional circumstances would be needed.

“In a situation that’s different from usual, we could conduct nimble operations to encourage stable yield formation in the markets,” Ueda said.

“We’ll keep closely cooperating with the government and keep watching the situation while considering our respective roles.”

That’s not a return to formal YCC, but it does keep a soft backstop in place.

The immediate reaction made sense…

• front-end rates higher,

• some flattening further out,

• and FX weaker (could be a lot weaker if people think YCC is back).

It remains very hard to thread the needle of strong growth, high inflation, stable rates, and a stable currency.

Repatriation flows help at the margin, but the currency still looks like the pressure valve.

Privorotsky ended his note by pointing out that “sharp moves as this is going to press, curious if some intervention happening…”

“USD/JPY initially moved higher after Governor Ueda’s comments were interpreted as slightly more dovish on rate hikes,” said Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of markets Japan at Standard Chartered Bank in Tokyo.

“The pair then pulled back, prompting market chatter that the move may have reflected intervention or a rate check. USD/JPY subsequently drifted lower, though dip-buying emerged on the downside, allowing the pair to retrace part of the move.”

Around 2amET, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ended his post-policy decision press conference, with JPY weakness accelerating above 159/USD (near the 160 Maginot Line), there was a sudden and very violent lurch higher in the yen (USDJPY puked 150pips in minutes)…

The volumes traded during that period were dramatically above normal..

But, not particularly significant relative to recent (alleged) interventions…

Of course, that could simply reflect the ever shrinking level of liquidity (and this lower level of actual intervention required to move the Japanese currency).

“It is tempting to conclude that we may be in the early stages of an official intervention,” said Valentin Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole.

“The reaction is also showing how nervous the markets are when the JPY is trading so close to the ‘line in the sand’ – levels where we had interventions in the past.”

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to answer when asked if Japan had intervened in the market, keeping investors in the dark regarding the moment of yen volatility.

“We’re always watching with a sense of urgency,” she said.

As a reminder, the government spent almost $100 billion on yen-buying to prop up the currency in 2024.

On each of the four occasions the exchange rate was around 160 yen per dollar, setting that level as a rough marker for where action might take place again… and very close to where we saw this move overnight.

The bottom line is simple: by refusing to admit they can control two opposing variables simultaneously, they will lose control of everything and as Privorotsky notes… the currency will likely be the release valve (hence the ‘alleged’ intervention)

Overnight Ueda effectively confirmed YCC coming, sparking yen selloff… then immediate U-turn spike driven by what appears to be one-time small intervention by MOF/BOJ.

BOJ hoping to control yields (yen negative) while intervening in FX to prop it up.

Another disaster coming https://t.co/HLlYjAGN10

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2026

“Another disaster coming” indeed!

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

America is officially out of the World Health Organization (WHO).

“Today, the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization, freeing itself from its constraints, as President [Donald] Trump promised on his first day in office,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr., declared in a Jan. 22 joint statement.

“This action responds to the WHO’s failures during the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to rectify the harm from those failures inflicted on the American people.”

This is the latest move by an administration that has been highly skeptical of membership in a number of global organizations that, in Trump’s view, and that of many conservatives, compromise the sovereignty of the United States and operate counter to America’s interests. In January 2025, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Accord, which aims to limit global warming, and on Jan. 7, he withdrew en masse from 66 U.N.-sponsored climate and social justice organizations, among them the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Trump’s decision to quit the WHO is “due to the organization’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic that arose out of Wuhan, China, and other global health crises, its failure to adopt urgently needed reforms, and its inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states,” a White House statement declared.

In this week’s executive order, dated Jan. 20, Trump directed that all U.S. funding for the WHO cease and all official U.S. representatives to the U.N. health subsidiary be recalled.

Under the terms of the original agreement establishing U.S. membership, the United States must give the WHO one year’s notice in order to withdraw from the organization. Trump gave such notice to the WHO upon taking office in 2025.

At that time, the WHO responded that it “regrets the announcement that the United States of America intends to withdraw from the Organization.”

“WHO plays a crucial role in protecting the health and security of the world’s people, including Americans, by addressing the root causes of disease, building stronger health systems, and detecting, preventing and responding to health emergencies, including disease outbreaks, often in dangerous places where others cannot go,” the WHO stated. 

Another condition for withdrawal under the original agreement is that the United States pay all unpaid dues it owes to the WHO, which is currently $278 million for the years 2024 and 2025. However, the Trump administration has stated that it will make no additional payments to the WHO. 

“The American people have paid more than enough,” a State Department spokesperson stated on Thursday.

America’s withdrawal has not been officially accepted by the WHO.

“The WHO refuses to hand over the American flag that hung in front of it, arguing it has not approved our withdrawal and, in fact, claims that we owe it compensation,” Rubio and Kennedy stated. “From our days as its primary founder, primary financial backer, and primary champion until now, our final day, the insults to America continue.”

Trump first attempted to withdraw the United States from the WHO in 2020 at the end of his first term; however, President Joe Biden reversed that move upon taking office in 2021. The Biden administration was also active in pushing for the United States to sign on to the WHO’s Pandemic Agreement, which, together with its International Health Regulations, was intended to give the WHO sweeping new powers to set policy for all member nations during pandemics and other “health emergencies” that the WHO might declare at its discretion. 

As part of America’s withdrawal from the WHO, Trump’s executive order stated that America will withdraw from negotiations of these agreements and that they “will have no binding force on the United States.”

Originally founded in 1948, the WHO included 194 nations among its members, prior to America’s withdrawal. The United States joined in 1948, following a joint resolution of Congress signed by President Harry Truman. 

The United States was required to fund 22 percent of the WHO’s budget, and has given the organization an average of $237 million per year between 2012 and 2024. 

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

TikTok said on Jan. 22 it has formed an American majority-owned joint venture that would oversee data security and the content ecosystem in a bid to maintain its operations in the United States.

TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC will operate as an independent entity overseen by a seven-member board of directors that includes TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Silver Lake co-CEO Egon Durban, Oracle executive vice president Kenneth Glueck, among others, according to a statement.

“The majority American owned Joint Venture will operate under defined safeguards that protect national security through comprehensive data protections, algorithm security, content moderation, and software assurances for U.S. users,” TikTok said in the statement.

The joint venture will be led by CEO Adam Presser and Chief Security Officer Will Farrell and is backed by three managing investors—tech company Oracle, private equity firm Silver Lake, and United Arab Emirates investment company MGX—each with a 15 percent stake.

ByteDance, the Beijing-based parent company of TikTok, retains a 19.9 percent stake, according to the statement. The new company is also backed by a consortium of investors that includes Dell Family Office, Vastmere Strategic Investments, Alpha Wave Partners, Revolution, Merritt Way, and Via Nova, among others.

TikTok said the joint venture will implement data privacy and cybersecurity measures to secure U.S. user data, apps, and algorithms, and put in place safety policies and content moderation to safeguard the content ecosystem.

The move complies with an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on Sept. 25, 2025, and will enable continued access to the video-sharing app for more than 200 million U.S. users, the company said.

TikTok had been required, under a law signed by President Joe Biden in 2024, to divest its U.S. assets or face a nationwide ban over national security concerns. Trump later delayed enforcement of that law after taking office for a second term in January 2025.

On Sept. 25, 2025, Trump issued an executive order outlining a framework for TikTok to continue its operations in the United States through a joint venture that is majority-owned by Americans and governed by rules protecting Americans’ data and national security.

Trump’s order requires U.S. user data to be stored in a cloud environment run by an American company. To address this, TikTok said in its statement that the USDS Joint Venture will use Oracle’s cloud to store the data.

TikTok has faced scrutiny amid concerns that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could potentially access U.S. consumer data and the algorithm owned by ByteDance. U.S. officials have raised national security concerns about the app due to ByteDance’s alleged ties to the CCP, claims the company has denied.

Submitted by Criterion Research President James Bevan, 

An incoming winter ice storm is poised to crimp Appalachian natural gas production at a critical moment when the power grid faces mounting pressure from surging data center demand and extreme cold.

Appalachian volumes already plummeted 682/d to 34,745 MMcf/d as the ongoing cold snap hit supply. The region is down 2,189 MMcf/d versus recent two-week highs.

Freeze-offs are already taking effect, with Pittsburgh projected to experience overnight lows near 0°F by January 27.

Winter is Coming for Appalachia
This week’s Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026

The Moisture Problem

The critical difference between ice storms and snow is moisture. Freezing rain, sleet, and ice create wet conditions that prove far more problematic than dry snow. For the Northeast pipeline system, ice and sleet storms pose significantly higher risks to sustained gas production compared to snow events.

Freezing liquid accumulation causes multiple failure modes: frozen dump valves block separators and pneumatic controls, ice accumulation damages exposed infrastructure and above-ground systems, rapid freezing exacerbates blockages and underground damage, and operational shutdowns from structural failures account for substantial cold-weather incidents. Internal freeze-offs—when ice freezes on valves and equipment—obstruct gas flow throughout the system.

NOAA’s latest forecast shows freezing rain concentrations from Texas to the Carolinas, with six-inch snowfall probabilities concentrated in Appalachia. Ice accumulation is expected across the region through January 26.

Grid Stress Mounting

Complicating the supply disruption is explosive demand-side growth from data centers, which have become one of the fastest-growing electricity consumers in the power sector. As AI computing facilities proliferate across the Northeast, winter power demand is spiking precisely when weather threatens production. Preliminary guidance suggests freeze-offs could drop production by 5-8 Bcf/d, with >10-15 Bcf/d possible if infrastructure sustains damage.

PJM observed demand flows are already pointing higher on the Criterion Mapping Analytics Platform – and the cold is only starting to migrate in.

This dual squeeze – compressed supply from weather events and surging electricity demand from data center buildout – is testing the grid’s ability to maintain supply during extreme weather.

The convergence represents a critical vulnerability: production-constrained Appalachia feeding a power system increasingly dependent on digital infrastructure, while winter extremes threaten both simultaneously.

Russia’s President Putin held a late-night meeting Thursday at the Kremlin with the US delegation led by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff, just hours ahead of planned trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi Friday aimed at pushing the Trump-backed peace framework to end the war in Ukraine.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov soon after the four-hour discussion called the engagement “substantive” and “frank” – and mentioned it was conducted with an unusually high level of mutual trust, which typically suggests hard truths were exchanged behind closed doors.

Witkoff was again accompanied by Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, with the pair arriving in Moscow from the World Economic Forum in Davos, at which Witkoff publicly stated his view that Russia and Ukraine may be edging closer to a deal:

“The president has talked about a tariff-free zone from Ukraine that I think would be game-changing,” Witkoff said at the Ukrainian Breakfast on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Alps resort town.

“I think we made a lot of progress. I think in the beginning of this process there was a little bit of confusion,” he said.

Still, following the late night meeting the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved, as the Ukrainian side is still pushing for a freeze of the front lines, while Moscow seeks a final political settlement which falls nothing short of full recognition of its hold over the four eastern territories.

Ushakov’s further conclusion was that while Moscow and Washington are both “sincerely interested” in a political and diplomatic resolution, until such a deal is reached, Russia will continue pursuing its objectives on the battlefield as it maintains the strategic upper hand.

“Russia would continue to consistently pursue the objectives … on the battlefield, where the Russian armed forces hold the strategic initiative,” Ushakov said.

He stressed that any illusion of compromise has limits, explaining that without a settlement on territorial control, “there can be no long-term agreement” – which of course sends the strong signal that Moscow is not budging, at least publicly, on its demand to retain control of the Donbas region.

The Kremlin aide also mentioned that discussions touched on Trump’s invitation for Russia to join his proposed “Board of Peace” initiative, as well as rising tensions related to the US seeking control over Greenland. Moscow has seen itself on the sidelines regarding this, with President Putin having said this week that Denmark and the US will have to sort it out.

Ushakov reiterated that Russia would be willing to contribute the $1 billion required for permanent membership in the ‘board of peace’ but has come up with a creative condition: the funds must come from Russian assets currently frozen in the US following the invasion of Ukraine. Frozen assets which remain after that could be focused on post-war reconstruction for Ukraine, the Kremlin aide indicated.

Important Russia 🇷🇺–US 🇺🇸discussion in the Kremlin today. President Putin received Peacemakers Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum. President aide Yury Ushakov and myself also participated. 🕊️ pic.twitter.com/I3E4Op5V9i

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) January 23, 2026

Overall, as expected this exchange with the US delegation didn’t produce much, except to make clear each’s position and to at least keep bilateral US-Russia relations on a positive, communicative track. But it really does underscore that after a year of the Trump administration pressing hard for a peace deal, the warring sides are in fact no closer to the goal line.

Submitted by @RyanMaue,

A meteorologist’s main purpose: keep you alive, and marked safe.✅

There is nothing we can do to stop this epic week of weather, and believe me, I have been trying to find silver linings or rays of sunlight.

So, the best preparation is fresh, accurate, and expert information from trusted sources.

While every new weather model run (alphabet soup of acronyms) shows slight adjustments in who gets the most freezing rain (ice) and snowfall❄️ there is little doubt about the aftermath of the massive ice storm: hazardous cold like January 21, 1985 when the United States 🇺🇸 average low temperature sunk to 4°F.

Many of these record lows are still standing.

⚠️You should be prepared for extended power outages with subzero temperatures outdoors. Think about where you can go, what you can do, and who needs even more help to survive this week ahead. This is not hype or a joke.

Temperature Analysis January 21, 1985 | PRISM Oregon State

Let’s dig in (or out) of this Winter Storm that is actually 2 waves of moisture that finally consolidate into a rather powerful Nor’easter.

If you’re younger than 40 years old, then you may be experiencing the worst winter weather of your lifetime depending upon where you are over the next 10-14 days.

Plan for extended power outages with brutally cold temperatures for many days. pic.twitter.com/GYaXpU3A8Z

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

ECMWF 12z HRES Precipitation Type and Intensity

A massive “slug of moisture” will stream out of the subtropical Pacific and then the Gulf of Mexico to combine into an “atmospheric river”. Normally that would be heavy rain and maybe snowfall where the air is below freezing.

Not this time — we will have extremely cold Arctic air flooding southward: and the atmospheric river will go up and over the more dense cold air near the surface. When the warmer subtropical moisture falls through the : it turns to snow or freezing rain or sleet.

Total Snowfall Amounts (NOAA Blend of Models — trust this b/c it includes the ECMWF or Euro flagship model) may be an underestimate (!)

Freezing Rain Expected from Winter Storm

We can partition the precipitation (called QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast) into rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain by using the temperature and humidity of the column of air above the surface.

These amounts forecast by ECMWF 12z will not all immediately freeze on contact with surfaces like trees and power lines, but a LOT of it will accrete, and cause potentially catastrophic damage.

The National Weather Service forecasts 0.25″ to 0.5″ inch of ice accumulating across across Texas, and nearly an inch in northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Then, cold air damming by the Appalachians keeps enough cold air at the surface (easterly winds) to put Atlanta under threat of significant icing. Not good!

After a sequence of events beginning in the Western Pacific Ocean led to disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, a massive persistent circulation pattern has allowed the formation of extreme “cold pools” over Canada 🇨🇦 with air temperatures brutal cold throughout the entire troposphere: -40°F near the surface and -40°F at the mid-way point of 500 millibars.

The Polar Vortex Unleashed with multiple “lobes” dropping south and whipping through like a pendulum: next 7-days

Two swings of the “wrecking ball” from the tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Ontario, Canada 🇨🇦

The second Arctic blast is actually partly triggered by a PV anomaly in the Arctic north of Greenland that gets stretched, and descends the chute into 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EiB8v0dmeL

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

Arctic Blast 1.0 — Frigid as temperatures plummet into Texas and the Deep South. Absolutely brutal in the Midwest and Great Lakes with minus 20s and minus 30s — and that’s not the wind chill.

Low Temperatures on Saturday

Low Temperatures on Sunday

5°F in Dallas, Texas Monday morning –> frigid

But we are not done — the Polar Vortex anchored over Canada reloads with another massive blast of cold air into next week. That makes 3 total if you are counting!

Over the next week –>

Arctic Blast 1.0 and Arctic Blast 2.0 merge
into Super Arctic Blast
that will entomb the Eastern U.S. into a frigid hellscape.

Temperatures 35°F to 45°F below normal will cripple 🇺🇸 east of the Mississippi.

This is all-time historic vintage cold. pic.twitter.com/zNugF2QAqo

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

You can see the evolution of the air mass colored by “deviation from normal” or anomaly, which I’ve color coded using a Barney and Baby Bop theme. This is on par with the O.G. polar vortex from January 2014 when social media (Twitter) weather was just getting started.

watch the animation here

And, that will be the end of January, and we will make it!

I made all of these maps and animations (from scratch w/raw data and code) and actually 90% of the weather maps that you see on social media. I don’t “dumb down” anything for my audience because I assume everyone has a PhD in something.

You can receive even MORE in depth weather articles at my growing Substack blog (Weather Trader)