US stock futures are lower with tech stocks lagging as Intel plunged 14% after the chipmaker warned it was struggling with manufacturing problems leading to poor Q1 guidance. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% but off session lows (and well off session highs), paring losses as Nvidia shares gained after Bloomberg reported Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Mag 7 are mixed with NVDA leading gains after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips. Bond yields are mostly unchanged; USD is flat. Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s. Commodities are mostly higher led by Oil (+1.5%); both base metals and precious metals are higher with silver trading just under $100/oz. The key macro focus today were global PMIs.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stock are mixed: Nvidia gains 1.5% after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips (Tesla -0.1%, Microsoft +0.04%, Amazon +0.1%, Alphabet +0.01%, Apple -0.08%, Meta -0.5%)

• Solar stocks are extending gains after Elon Musk commented on solar-powered satellites in his Davos talk on Thursday. Array Technologies (ARRY) +2%, First Solar (FSLR) +1.4%.
• Booz Allen (BAH) rises 5% after the defense contractor boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, with the new outlook beating the average analyst estimate.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) falls 2% after the bank reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, driven by higher-than-expected costs. The firm also said it agreed to acquire Brex.
• CSX Corp. (CSX) gains 2% after the freight transportation company provided some guidance for 2026, including low single-digit revenue growth.
• Intel (INTC) plunges 13% after Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the chipmaker was struggling with manufacturing problems. The stock closed Thursday at the highest level since 2022.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) gains 1.5% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed estimates. Analysts note that the results were largely in line with the company’s pre-announcement.

In corporate news, Amazon.com is gearing up to ax thousands more corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy. Apple accused the European Commission of using “political delay tactics” to postpone new app policies as a pretense to investigate and fine the iPhone maker. TikTok and its Chinese parent ByteDance have closed a long-awaited deal to transfer parts of their US operations to American investors, securing the popular video app’s future in the US and avoiding a nationwide ban.

Even with the S&P just shy of all time highs, investors have been quietly trying to sidestep bouts of volatility driven by US policies, highlighted this week by Trump’s push to assert greater control over Greenland. While the outlook for US stocks remains strong, traders are also looking elsewhere for pockets of calm and opportunity.

“I hope that the geopolitical situation starts to ease so that the market can focus on substance versus noise,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services. “Full-year 2026 guidances are, in my view, the most crucial piece of data the market has been waiting for quite some time, given valuations and growth expectations.”

Small caps extended a winning streak over large-cap cohorts amid concern about a possible AI bubble and bets that an economic recovery will filter to broader swathes of the economy. The Russell 2000’s outperformance of the S&P 500 in 2026 is the longest such streak in 30 years.  

“Typically, safe bonds and Treasuries have been a source of diversification during times of uncertainty, but particularly Treasuries haven’t provided any cushion over the past days,” said Philipp Lisibach, head of strategy and research at LGT Private Banking. “That’s also why gold continues to rally.”

In Asia, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate and issued higher inflation forecasts. While Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike. “The challenge is balancing rate hikes to support the yen without slowing growth,” wrote Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING Bank. “Timing is uncertain, but we now see a June hike as the base case.”

Elsewhere, the US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar with the matter said. And the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved after Putin held late-night talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the latest plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Talks continue between US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday. 

Trump said he has finished interviewing candidates to serve as the next Fed chair and reiterated that he has someone in mind for the job. His shortlist includes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a former governor, Kevin Warsh. 

The Stoxx 600 falls 0.1%. Telecoms and energy sectors outperform, while travel and consumer product shares lag. The focus fell on the Amsterdam debut of armored vehicle and munitions maker CSG NV. The stock opened 28% higher after the largest-ever initial public offering globally for a pure-play defense firm, highlighting growing appetite for the sector. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Ericsson shares surge as much as 12% after the telecom equipment maker reported stronger-than-expected sales in the core networks division, driven by mission-critical projects
• Siemens Energy gains as much as 2.6% to a record high after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from sell and lifted its PT to €175 from €38
• SFS Group shares gain as much as 7.4%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts said the Swiss tool and component supplier delivered stronger growth than expected in a challenging market
• SSP shares climb as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, after the travel food and beverage outlet operator reported first-quarter results which showed continued positive trading momentum and reassured analysts
• Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since February 2025 after the luxury watch seller acquired Deutsch & Deutsch, a retailer with four showrooms and Rolex distribution in Texas
• Castellum gains as much as 2.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the Swedish property firm to buy from neutral in a review of the European real estate sector, where it also upgrades Colonial to neutral from sell
• Babcock International shares drop as much as 3.8% after the support services company said CEO David Lockwood is retiring and will be succeeded by the head of its Nuclear division, Harry Holt
• Edenred shares fall as much as 3.2%, while Pluxee declines as much as 4.7% as UBS downgrades both French-listed meal-voucher stocks, saying the regulatory “tide is turning” against the sector
• C&C Group shares plunge as much as 18%, briefly slumping to their lowest level since 2009, after the alcoholic beverage maker said trading has been worse than expected

Earlier, Asian stocks gained for a second consecutive session, erasing their losses for the week, as fears over tariffs and Greenland faded.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% on Friday, with Alibaba, MediaTek and TSMC among the biggest boosts. Korea’s Kospi advanced to a fresh record near the 5,000 level. Stocks also gained in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong. The regional gauge is on track to end the week steady after rising for four straight weeks. Investors are shifting focus back to earnings and the outlook for the artificial intelligence trade after US President Donald Trump backed off from putting tariffs on European nations due to tensions over Greenland. Meanwhile, most central banks in the region are cutting rates and economic growth is expected to improve. Equities rose in Tokyo as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady as expected. The Straits Times Index rose to a record as Singapore started handing out some of the S$5 billion it plans to invest in local stocks to selected fund managers.

In FX, Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s Greene that also weighed on shorter-dated gilts.

In rates, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hovered near the highest since September, holding small gains with long-end yields about 2bp richer on the day, flattening the curve. European bonds underperform following UK retail sales and European PMI gauges. US stock futures little changed while crude oil is up nearly 2%.US yields are 1bp-2bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flatter by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.23% is 1.7bp lower on the day with German counterpart little changed and UK cheaper by about 1bp. Focal points of US session include S&P Global US PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment gauge, as well as next week’s supply — both corporate and Treasury coupon auctions scheduled to start Monday. 

In commodities, spot silver rises 2.5% while gold erased an earlier gain to trade lower. Silver rose just shy of $100 and will likely surpass the key level today…

… as the Shanghai silver premium jumped 50% overnight to a record 12.

Precious metals are expected to remain in demand should investors continue to diversify away from US assets in response to erratic US policy and heightened geopolitical risk.Renewed concern about the possibility of US military action against Iran is spurring oil prices. WTI crude futures rise 1.7% to near $60.40; and Brent is at $65 in New York.  

Today’s economic calendar includes January preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), November Leading Index, January final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Friday is slower for company earnings, with SLB slated to report before the market opens.  Capital One’s fourth-quarter revenues came in slightly higher than expected, but EPS missed, and the bank agreed to buy Brex, a fintech company focused on corporate expense management and accounting, for  $5.15 billion.Next week is the busiest of this earnings season, when companies speaking for more than a third of the S&P 500’s total market value will report.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.24%
• VIX +0.5 points at 16.16
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.56, euro -0.2% at $1.1735
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.2/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Russia said it will hold security talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday, but warned after a late-night meeting between President Vladimir Putin and three U.S. envoys that a durable peace would not be possible unless territorial issues were resolved. RTRS
• The US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar said. It currently says the US must “consult with and inform” the two. Donald Trump also mused on social media about invoking NATO’s collective defense clause to protect the US’s southern border. BBG
• Trump on Thursday said he does not like the idea of letting people use 401(k) retirement funds for a down payment on a house, even though it was floated by his own chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett. RTRS
• Trump thanks Chinese President Xi for working with the US and ultimately approving the TikTok deal, adds that Xi could have gone the other way.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview Thursday that the U.S. relationship with China has reached a “very good equilibrium” where disagreements are less likely to turn into full-scale economic conflict as they did last year. Politico
• Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, people familiar said, suggesting Beijing is close to formally approving imports. Nvidia shares jumped (NVDA +128 bps premkt). BBG
• BOJ keeps key policy rate steady at 0.75% as widely expected. The BOJ retained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday and stressed it will remain vigilant to price risks from a weak yen, signaling that policymakers intend to keep raising still-low borrowing costs in a politically charged atmosphere. RTRS
• China could set this year’s GDP target at 4.5-5% (vs. “about 5%” in the last three years), signaling a tolerance for modest growth deceleration as it works toward rebalancing the economy. SCMP
• Eurozone flash PMIs for Jan are mixed, with a shortfall in services (51.9 vs. the Street 52.6) and modestly better manufacturing (49.4 vs. the Street 49.2), and the details were mixed too (new orders rose, although employment deteriorated while inflation intensified vs. Dec). S&P Global
• The US urged grid operators to tap backup power, including from data centers, as a record winter storm threatens blackouts nationwide. Texas is under particular stress, while airlines brace for disruption. BBG
• US House passes package of FY26 funding bills in a major step towards averting government shutdown on Jan 31st; sending to Senate for final votes.
• US House Speaker Johnson said there is no GOP consensus on whether to use tariff revenue to send $2k checks out.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU official said India and EU will announce a free trade agreement as soon as next week.
• EU Official announces that the India-EU FTA will lead to substantially lower tariffs.
• The Trump administration pushed out 2 key officials focused on countering technological threats from China, the WSJ reported citing sources; this has raised concerns among US security hawks about the softer stance towards China.
• Spanish PM Sanchez said the US is provoking tension in the Transatlantic, EU have the instruments to respond proportionally to coercion.
• The EU is moving to revive its US trade deal after President Trump backed away from his tariff threat tied to Greenland.
• US President Trump said the people who brought the tariff legislation against the US are strongly China-oriented; the US is going so well, giant growth and investment with almost no inflation.

BOJ

• BoJ maintains its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected; 8-1 vote split with Takata voting for a 25bps hike.
• BoJ Governor Ueda (post-policy presser) said headline inflation soon to undershoot 2%; not yet at the stage to mull if goal achievement is coming earlier. Will conduct monetary policy in such a way as to ensure they do not fall behind the curve. Will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realized. It will take a while before the full impact of tightening is seen across the economy, conditions remain accommodative after the December move. Will conduct nimble market operations to respond to irregular moves; will work closely with the government on long-term rates. Operations could be conducted to encourage stable yield formation. Must pay attention to even small FX moves as underlying inflation approaches 2%.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded entirely in the green, though without a clear sector-led driver, as regional sentiment stayed broadly constructive. ASX 200 posted modest gains, supported by strength in mining and metals as gold, silver and platinum extended their bid. A strong PMI print — with both manufacturing and services pushing further into expansion — added to the positive tone. Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open but later pared part of its advance, pressured by chip stocks after weak Intel earnings. Offsetting some of the drag, videogame names outperformed, with Nintendo (+5%) boosted by strong US Switch 2 sales data. Following the BoJ rate decision, the Nikkei was unreactive as rates remained unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened higher, with the Hang Seng outperforming after Alibaba (+3.6%) was reported to be preparing the listing of its chipmaking arm. Metals strength following fresh records in gold and silver also supported both indices.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi had a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, Xinhua reported. China is willing to cooperate with Brazil in different areas.

European bourses are trading largely on the backfoot, in contrast to the broadly positive action seen overnight. European sectors are trading mostly in the red. Leading sectors are Telecommunications (+1.1%), Energy (+1.2%) and Healthcare (+0.4%). Telecommunication has been given a boost by Ericsson (+8.3%) after the Co. reported strong Q4 earnings, whilst stronger crude prices has underpinned the Energy sector. On the flip side, Construction (-0.9%), Travel (-1.0%) and Financial Services (-0.5%) lag – no fresh newsflow driving the move.

Top European News

• Germany’s core budget had borrowing of EUR 66.9bln instead of the allocated EUR 81.8bln, according to sources. Sources also reported that total investment hits record level of EUR 86.8bln in 2025.
• French parliament finds confidence in PM Lecornu (i.e. the no-confidence motion failed); another motion to follow shortly.

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer this morning and trades within a 98.25-98.48 range, which is towards the lower end of the prior day’s confines. Newsflow for the index is lacking this morning, with all attention on the upcoming trilateral meeting between US-Russia-Ukraine; Trump reminded that “anytime we meet, it is good”.
• JPY currently the top G10 performer this morning. Earlier, the BoJ kept rates steady (subject to dissent) and upwardly revised their 2026 inflation forecasts – spurring upside in the JPY at the time, but gradually waned into the Ueda meeting. The Governor avoided any overt hike signal, but noted that they are wary of a “rapid” rise in yields, also adding that they “must pay attention to even small FX moves” (strengthening JPY).
• Thereafter, a significant bout of pressure was seen in USD/JPY, soon after Ueda concluded its presser. In more detail, USD/JPY fell from 159.10 to 157.32 in an immediate reaction, before gradually scaling back to around 158.00 mark where the pair currently resides. Some had touted intervention, though Bloomberg’s Cudmore suggested the move is a rate check (i.e. the MOF calling round to see where banks think the JPY should be). In response, Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment if they intervened in the FX market, instead reiterating that they are watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
• G10s are mixed against the Dollar. GBP is towards the top of the pile, with upside facilitated by a hotter-than-expected Retail Sales report (which also included upward revisions to the prior); PMI figures this morning also paint a positive activity picture in the region. Thereafter, Cable took another leg higher to a session peak of 1.3532 after BoE’s Greene said, “forward indicators for wage growth are even more concerning than inflation expectations”, with other commentary generally striking a typical hawkish tone.
• Elsewhere, EUR is mildly lower; earlier slipped to session lows on the subdued French PMI metrics (Services surprisingly contracted), but then jumped on the upbeat German figures.

Fixed Income

• JGBs are lower by c. 40 ticks at the moment, with downside of just under 50 at most at a 131.32 session low. Action that comes after the BoJ and Ueda’s presser where, in short, the narrative is that April is the earliest point for a hike, as Ueda specifically referenced seeing price behaviour for that period as a “factor to mull a hike”. Though, JGBs remain markedly clear of their WTD 130.66 trough and by extension yields are off WTD highs. Nonetheless, the week’s action, driven by fiscal commentary and the BoJ, has sparked a modest shift in market pricing; with 21bps of tightening currently implied by June vs c. 18bps last week; for April, its 14bps currently vs 11bps last week.
• USTs a tick or two higher in a very thin 111-19 to 112-23 band, awaiting the trilateral summit re. Ukraine (timing TBC), flash PMIs and the potentially imminent Fed Chair announcement.
• Bunds, in contrast, are a tick or two lower. But, also in a narrow 127.64-84 band. Modest two-way action on but no real move to the January Flash PMIs, as political uncertainty re. France and the latest geopolitical/tariff gyrations potentially making some of the responses redundant.
• OATs are broadly in-line with core benchmarks. Towards the mid-point of 121.10 to 121.27 parameters. Earlier, the French parliament found confidence in PM Lecornu (as expected), though he is still subject to another no-confidence motion. Into this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened a touch, out to 63bps, but within comfortable and familiar territory.
• Gilts outperform. Gains of 32 ticks at best to a 91.68 high, currently holding around 10 ticks off that. Upside despite the strong December Retail Sales release and upward revisions to the November Y/Y components. Data that appears to have been overshadowed by a reassessment of the political risk after Thursday’s Burnham-induced sell-off; as more commentators pick up on the detail that Burnham’s path to becoming an MP is tricky, and largely dependent on the pro-Starmer Labour NEC.
• However, the move for Gilts unwound after strong UK PMIs and hawkish commentary from BoE’s Greene, points that were enough to take the benchmark to near enough flat on the day.

Commodities

• In short, the commodity space awaits the trilateral summit between Ukraine, Russia and the US today and potentially into tomorrow. Timing and details around the meeting are currently light, though we do know the attendees. From Ukraine, Umerrov, Budanov, Arakhamia and Hnatov. From Russia, Kostyukov; note, Dmitriev is also in the UAE, unclear if he will partake. From the US, Witkoff and Kushner.
• Crude is firmer by just under a USD a barrel. Towards highs of USD 60.22/bbl and USD 64.93/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Upside that is more a consolidation from the downside seen on Thursday than a fundamentally-driven move higher.
• XAU pulled back in the early European morning. A move that, interestingly, occurred alongside downside in US equity futures at the time. As such, the move is perhaps profit-taking from recent gains; we also note similar action in silver at the time, though XAG remains firmer on the day. Spot gold briefly broke below USD 4.9k/oz, after hitting USD 4967/oz overnight.
• Base metals feature gains in 3M LME Copper. Upside that seemingly occurred alongside strength in China overnight. At best 3M LME to USD 12.97k/T. Note, Shanghai Futures Exchange is to adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures as of the 27th January settlement.
• China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures following the 27th of January closing settlement.
• China is reportedly set to offer CNY-denominated liquefied natural gas futures contracts as early as February, according to sources.
• Goldman Sachs lowers its Summer’26 Henry Hub forecast to USD 3.75/MMBtu (prev. USD 4.50/MMBtu), maintains 2027 forecast at USD 3.80/MMBtu.
• US President Trump said Venezuelan oil will be divided up.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin said discussions in Abu Dhabi will happen today and will continue tomorrow if necessary. Russia’s sovereign assets frozen in the US amount to a little less than USD 5bln. Not looking to go into details on the “Anchorage Formula” for peace agreement with Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he discussed with US President Trump additional air defence missiles, and provisions for PAC-3 & anti-ballistic missiles.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said he is waiting for US President Trump, a date, and a place for the signing of security guarantees.
• Russia’s Kremlin said Greenland proposal and Board of Peace were discussed with US envoys; talks were constructive. Without solving the territorial issue, there is no prospect of long-term settlement in Ukraine.
• Russian envoy Dmitriev called the meeting between President Putin and US envoys important.
• Russia’s Kremlin said the talks between President Putin and US envoys have concluded.
• US President Trump said Russian President Putin, alongside others, will have to make concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin and Zelensky want to make a deal. Ukraine war doesn’t affect the US, it affects Europe.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe will continue to work on Arctic security, step up investments in Greenland and Arctic-ready equipment and deepen cooperation with partners in the region. Well-prepared with measures if tariffs are applied. Europe should use defence spending ‘surge’ on Arctic-ready equipment. Close to prosperity deal with the US and Ukraine.
• US President Trump said the US will work with NATO on Greenland security; there are good things for Europe within the framework. On the trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia, said “anytime we meet, it is good”. There will be something on Greenland in 2 weeks.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli officials reportedly express concern that they could be targeted in retaliation by Iran in response to a US strike, FT reported citing sources.
• US President Trump, on Iran, said they have a big force going towards Iran; watching Iran very closely and would rather not see something happen on Iran; will be doing a 25% secondary tariff on Iran.

Geopolitics: Others

• US President Trump posted that the Board of Peace withdraws its offer for Canada to join.
• US President Trump posted “Maybe we should have put NATO to the test: Invoked Article 5, and forced NATO to come here and protect our Southern Border from further Invasions of Illegal Immigrants”.
• US House narrowly rejects resolution to limit President Trump’s war powers in Venezuela.
• US President Trump said Chinese President Xi will come to the US towards the end of the year.
• NATO’s Rutte and Denmark’s PM is to meet on Friday morning.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 51.8
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.5
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Nov Leading Index, est. -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 54, prior 54

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market recovery continued yesterday, as easing geopolitical risks and a strong batch of US data led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. That meant the S&P 500 (+0.55%) rose for a second day running, moving back within 1% of its record high. And for some assets, it was almost like the selloff never happened, with the VIX index of volatility (-1.26pts) back at 15.64pts, which is beneath its levels prior to Saturday’s tariff announcements, whilst US HY spreads (-4bps) closed at their tightest level since 2007, at 250bps. So it was a strong day for the most part, and the risk-on tone also sent 2yr Treasury yields (+2.4bps) to a 6-week high of 3.61%. Nevertheless, there’s still a lot of focus on the precise details of what the framework over Greenland will include, and there was lingering caution that the geopolitical risk hasn’t entirely gone away. So gold prices (+2.16%) kept up their recent momentum, rising to $4,936/oz by yesterday’s close, and they’ve posted a further gain up to $4,966/oz this morning.

In terms of the Greenland situation, there weren’t any explicit updates yesterday, but multiple press outlets reported that the talks between President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had focused on reopening the 1951 agreement between the US and Denmark over Greenland’s defence. Bloomberg reported that it would involve the stationing of US missiles, with the US seeking to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, whilst Trump himself said in an interview on Fox Business that “essentially, it’s total access.” Trump was also asked if the US would acquire Greenland, and he said “It’s possible. But in the meantime, we’re getting everything we wanted, total security.” Meanwhile, after the de-escalation the previous day, there were limited news from a summit of EU leaders, with Commission President von der Leyen saying the bloc would engage with the US in a “firm but non-escalatory” manner.

With fears ebbing about a military or economic escalation, this was very positive for global risk assets yesterday. Moreover, European markets did particularly well, because they finally reacted to Wednesday evening’s news that Trump wouldn’t impose 10% tariffs for several countries on Feb 1. Indeed, that reaction saw the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) post its best day in over two months, and there was a clear response among assets more sensitive to a military or trade escalation. So defence stocks struggled as a military escalation was viewed as less likely, and Rheinmetall (-3.40%) was the worst performer in the German DAX. Conversely, there was an outperformance from sectors like automakers that would have been more affected by tariffs, and Volkswagen (+6.51%) was the top performer in the DAX.

Whilst the geopolitical news was the main driver of the rally yesterday, sentiment also got a boost from a strong batch of US data, which cemented confidence in the near-term outlook. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were at just 200k in the week ending January 17 (vs. 209k expected), which in turn pushed the 4-week moving average to a 2-year low of just 201.5k. In addition, the Q3 GDP print was also revised up a tenth, now showing growth at an annualised +4.4% before the government shutdown began. And the PCE inflation data for October and November was in line with expectations, with both headline and core PCE running at +0.2% for both months.

That data boosted confidence in the near-term outlook, and it meant that investors continued to dial back their expectations for rate cuts this year. Indeed, just 43bps of Fed cuts are now priced by the December meeting, the fewest so far this year and down -2.6bps on the day. So in turn, that helped to push up Treasury yields higher, especially at the frontend, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+2.4bps) up to 3.61%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.6bps) reached 4.25%. That risk-on tone was echoed among US equities too, with the S&P 500 (+0.55%) powered by a strong advance for the Magnificent 7 (+2.11%), which posted its biggest gain of 2026 so far.

Overnight, the Japanese yield curve has flattened after the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision. They left their policy rate at 0.75% as expected, after hiking at the previous meeting. However, it was an 8-1 vote, with a dissent in favour of another 25bp hike, whilst the outlook report raised their inflation outlook as well. So the median expectation for core-core CPI has risen by two-tenths to +3.0% in fiscal 2025, whilst the fiscal 2026 forecast is also up two-tenths to +2.2%, with fiscal 2027 up a tenth to +2.1%. And looking forward, the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates, saying that “real interest rates are at significantly low levels”, and that if the forecast were realised then they would “continue to raise the policy interest rate”. In turn, that’s seen the 2yr Japanese yield (+3.1bps) reach a post-1996 high of 1.23%, but the 30yr yield (-1.9bps) is down to 3.62%. We also had the December CPI report shortly beforehand, which showed headline CPI decelerating to +2.1% (vs. +2.2% expected) due the impact of government subsidies.

Otherwise in Asia, equity markets have generally moved higher for the most part, which comes as the flash PMIs have painted a resilient picture of global economic activity as we begin 2026. So Japan’s composite PMI moved up to a 17-month high of 52.8, Australia’s hit a 5-month high of 55.5, whilst India’s moved up to 59.5. So that backdrop has seen further gains for the Nikkei (+0.16%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.47%) is on track for another record high. Meanwhile, US equity futures are also positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.19%) pointing towards further gains. However, the CSI 300 (-0.45%) has lost ground, and we also found out overnight that the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 6.9929 per dollar, which is the first time since 2023 that the reference rate has been below 7.

Elsewhere, we’ve seen fresh records for commodities, with gold (+2.16%) closing at another record of $4,936/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s reached an intraday peak of $4,967/oz. So it’s in touching distance of the $5,000 level, and bear in mind it was only in October that it crossed the $4,000 level. Similarly, silver (+3.42%) closed at a new record of $96.24/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s also hit an intraday record of $99.36/oz. Otherwise, Brent crude fell -1.81% to $64.06/bbl, following positive comments on peace talks from Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy after meeting Trump in Davos, as well as the news that exports of Kazakh oil via a Black Sea oil terminal in Russia should soon recover from recent disruption caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Further talks between US, Ukraine and Russia officials are expected in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.

Earlier in Europe, UK gilts underperformed their European counterparts yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.7bps on the day to 4.47%. That came in response to the news that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could have a path back into Parliament, as a vacancy opened up to become MP in the Greater Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton. Gilts reacted to that because Burnham is seen as a plausible challenger against PM Keir Starmer, whose position has come under increasing pressure over the last year, and Burnham has previously said that the UK is “in hock to the bond markets” and called for higher public borrowing. It’s unclear yet if Burnham would be a candidate in that by-election, but gilt markets have been closely following political developments, as we saw last July when there was a big selloff driven by speculation about Chancellor Reeves’ position and whether the fiscal rules might be loosened under a new chancellor.

Finally yesterday, we also had the minutes from the ECB’s last meeting in December, where they kept their deposit rate at 2%. They showed that the ECB wanted to keep their options open, saying that “it was important for the Governing Council to maintain full optionality in either direction for future meetings”. Looking forward, it also said that “the softening of downside risks since September meant that maintaining interest rates at their current level represented a fairly solid path under the baseline outlook”. Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps) rose by a small amount, and those on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) fell back.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for January, and UK retail sales for December. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Greene.

Technically, the Bank of Japan actions overnight should be seen as “a hawkish hold”, according to Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk-head Rich Privorotsky.

The Bank raised its growth estimate and maintained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday even as it kept interest rates steady, signaling its confidence a moderate recovery would justify raising still-low borrowing costs further.

While Ueda had suggested that overall inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike.

“April is a month where there’s relatively high numbers of price revisions,” Ueda said.

“We have a certain amount of interest in that, and while it’s not the most important factor in deciding the next rate hike, it’s one of the factors.”

The BOJ gave other signs of a more robust view, too.

It softened its assessment of economic risks as they are now generally balanced. With the negative impact of US tariffs receding, the bank cut the wording that it needs to watch if the economic outlook will materialize “without any preconceptions.”

However, Governor Ueda’s press conference leaned cautious on market functioning, flagging discomfort with the pace of long end moves and a willingness to act if volatility becomes disorderly.

Ueda said the central bank may conduct operations to smooth volatility in the bond market in a nimble fashion if needed, while indicating that exceptional circumstances would be needed.

“In a situation that’s different from usual, we could conduct nimble operations to encourage stable yield formation in the markets,” Ueda said.

“We’ll keep closely cooperating with the government and keep watching the situation while considering our respective roles.”

That’s not a return to formal YCC, but it does keep a soft backstop in place.

The immediate reaction made sense…

• front-end rates higher,

• some flattening further out,

• and FX weaker (could be a lot weaker if people think YCC is back).

It remains very hard to thread the needle of strong growth, high inflation, stable rates, and a stable currency.

Repatriation flows help at the margin, but the currency still looks like the pressure valve.

Privorotsky ended his note by pointing out that “sharp moves as this is going to press, curious if some intervention happening…”

“USD/JPY initially moved higher after Governor Ueda’s comments were interpreted as slightly more dovish on rate hikes,” said Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of markets Japan at Standard Chartered Bank in Tokyo.

“The pair then pulled back, prompting market chatter that the move may have reflected intervention or a rate check. USD/JPY subsequently drifted lower, though dip-buying emerged on the downside, allowing the pair to retrace part of the move.”

Around 2amET, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ended his post-policy decision press conference, with JPY weakness accelerating above 159/USD (near the 160 Maginot Line), there was a sudden and very violent lurch higher in the yen (USDJPY puked 150pips in minutes)…

The volumes traded during that period were dramatically above normal..

But, not particularly significant relative to recent (alleged) interventions…

Of course, that could simply reflect the ever shrinking level of liquidity (and this lower level of actual intervention required to move the Japanese currency).

“It is tempting to conclude that we may be in the early stages of an official intervention,” said Valentin Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole.

“The reaction is also showing how nervous the markets are when the JPY is trading so close to the ‘line in the sand’ – levels where we had interventions in the past.”

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to answer when asked if Japan had intervened in the market, keeping investors in the dark regarding the moment of yen volatility.

“We’re always watching with a sense of urgency,” she said.

As a reminder, the government spent almost $100 billion on yen-buying to prop up the currency in 2024.

On each of the four occasions the exchange rate was around 160 yen per dollar, setting that level as a rough marker for where action might take place again… and very close to where we saw this move overnight.

The bottom line is simple: by refusing to admit they can control two opposing variables simultaneously, they will lose control of everything and as Privorotsky notes… the currency will likely be the release valve (hence the ‘alleged’ intervention)

Overnight Ueda effectively confirmed YCC coming, sparking yen selloff… then immediate U-turn spike driven by what appears to be one-time small intervention by MOF/BOJ.

BOJ hoping to control yields (yen negative) while intervening in FX to prop it up.

Another disaster coming https://t.co/HLlYjAGN10

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2026

“Another disaster coming” indeed!

US natural gas futures surged as much as 75% over the past week, well above $5/mmBtu, driven by sharply colder weather forecasts (comparable to the 2021 Uri storm that paralyzed Texas’ power grid), ongoing production freeze-offs, and a vicious market trap for bears that unleashed epic short covering.

As of Friday morning, around 0645 ET, front-month NatGas contracts in New York fell 1.4% to $4.97/mmBtu, after surging 63% over the last three trading sessions.

Prices were still on track for the biggest weekly gain on record, with Bloomberg data going back to 1990.

This week’s surge was largely fueled by below-average temperature forecasts across the Lower 48, combined with the threat of a potentially historic winter storm stretching from Texas to the Northeast.

Widespread winter activity across more than half the country has raised freeze-off risks, particularly in southern gas-producing states and Appalachia, while also stoking concerns about pipeline icing that could reduce volumes and pressure power grids this weekend and into next week.

Winter is Coming for Appalachia
This week’s Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026

Our reporting this week:

• Appalachian NatGas Output Faces “Intense Losses” As Arctic Blast Drives Power Grid Risk Higher

• NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

Samantha Dart, lead analyst on the Goldman Sachs commodities team, provided clients with critical color on the US NatGas market Thursday evening following a historic week of upside price action.

Dart was clear that the move in NatGas was purely weather-driven: prices surged amid sharply colder forecasts, production freeze-offs, and short covering. She said her desk views the spike as a near-term shock, with futures prices likely overshooting fundamentals rather than signaling a sustained rally.

She said that front of the curve rallied more than Summer 2026 (Sum26) contracts, highlighting two key risks:

• Production outages might hit exactly when heating demand peaks and the system might fall temporarily short on gas

• Storage path risks: Higher heating demand ultimately lowers overall storage levels, increasing the market’s vulnerability to tightening shocks during the 2026-27 winter.

Dart continued:

• We estimate that near-term deliverability risks are meaningful, even taking into account mitigating factors like gas-to-coal switching and the re-sale of gas by liquefaction facilities back to the grid. That said, we think this would ultimately be a temporary physical imbalance, likely to be reflected in very high cash prices during the tightening shock, rather than in a sustained rally in NYMEX gas. We think this is especially the case given the potential for strong Northeast production to help rebuild Gulf storage levels in the spring, as observed last year. As a result, while weather forecast shifts can keep price volatility elevated, prompt NYMEX prices seem to have overshot fundamentals.

She added that the upcoming storm (peak cold on Jan 26) is expected to create a temporary tightening, reflected in higher cash prices than NYMEX futures, similar to the 2021 Uri event, when cash spiked to $25/mmBtu while prompt NYMEX stayed flat.

Dart’s view is that prices post-storm and post-winter blast will return to the medium-term target, but stay above $3.50, and not exceed $4.

The full note can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

After nearly four years of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the US having throughout poured billions into Kiev’s military and civic services sector, there are signs that other American allies are experiencing extreme delays in pre-scheduled arms shipments because Washington’s priorities are clearly elsewhere.

Israel over the past couple years has also been a high priority, amid its war in Gaza, which resulted in the US fast-tracking some bombs, ammo, and weapons deliveries. But countries like Japan are suffering from extreme delays, at a sensitive moment it is locked in an ongoing diplomatic standoff with China over the Japanese Prime Minister’s Taiwan stance.

Nikkei has referenced a Japanese government internal investigation which found that “118 orders for U.S. military equipment worth 1.14 trillion yen ($7.21 billion) have not been delivered at least five years after the contracts were signed, in some cases forcing the Self-Defense Forces to use older equipment.”

These startling figures were uncovered by Japan’s Board of Audit, and revealed upon completing its formal investigation last Friday.

“The 118 cases pointed out by the Board of Audit include equipment that Japan added to its orders later, and not all of them are delayed deliveries,” the Japan’s Defense Ministry said, adding that “we will address each of the issues in Foreign Military Sales procurement one by one.”

However, the Japanese government has not speculated as to specific causes or made any accusations of its key arms partner in the West. The Nikkei report, for example cites instances of problems at manufacturing companies, resulting in serious delays of advanced weaponry.

But the report does bring up the question of Washington’s shifting priorities, which can come into play even long after deals with Tokyo are inked:

Even with FMS contracts, deliveries can be delayed if the U.S. side lacks the items in stock. Shipments to Japan can be postponed when Washington determines that delivering equipment would disrupt American military operations.

Japanese opposition parties had expressed concern that deliveries of air defense missiles and other equipment could be delayed due to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government said it was difficult to comment on such a possibility.

Examples of major military hardware delayed for the island-nation include E-2D early warning and control aircraft. Much of what Japan seeks is indeed defensive in nature, also as it knows it would have to rely heavily on its American ally if some kind of hot conflict were to ever kick off with China.

China has earlier warned Japan will suffer a “crushing” defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing’s anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned.

The Trump administration’s primary venue at the World Economic Forum in Davos, known as USA House, issued a pointed warning on its website Tuesday after reports surfaced that some high-profile attendees had been duped by scalpers peddling counterfeit VIP access packages, Fox Business reports.

“Caveat billionaires,” the notice began dryly, “It has been brought to our attention that again this year external parties are selling ‘VIP access to USA House’ and other Stromback Global venues in Davos.”

Organizers said that USA House and Stromback Global maintain no partnerships with third-party resellers and will deny entry to anyone holding such bogus credentials.

The statement added a touch of literary flair:

“The volume of inbound queries this year suggests that these fake VIP passes may be the fastest-selling fiction about Davos since Thomas Mann’s Magic Mountain.”

The statement closed with sympathies for the victims of the apparent swindle.

USA House, a public-private initiative debuting this year to highlight American innovation on the global stage, centers its programming on the nation’s 250th anniversary and themes of opportunity, collaboration, and democratic values.

Access to elite World Economic Forum badges can run into the tens of thousands of dollars – up to $35,000 for top-tier entry, according to prior reporting – plus substantial annual membership fees that reach into the seven figures for the most influential participants, according to Fox Business.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The clips in this piece were all sourced and edited by Wide Awake Media. Please give them a follow on X.

As the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again initiative ramps up its assault on processed poisons and added sugars, Davos elites are scrambling to defend their synthetic food agenda. From lab-grown “meat” to artificial additives, the WEF crowd insists their tech-driven “solutions” will save the planet, even as public resistance mounts and states impose bans on cultivated cell products.

This clash highlights the divide between policies prioritizing nutrient-dense, farm-fresh eats and the globalist push for factory-farmed fakes and lab grown substances riddled with unknown risks.

WEF Insider Touts Lab-Grown Meat as ‘Way Forward’ Amid Ecological Claims

In a discussion on food innovation, Davos participant Andrea Illy championed tech foods like cultivated meat, dismissing cultural resistance as outdated, despite acknowledging massive consumer backlash.

Davos participant Andrea Illy claims that fake, lab-grown foods “represent the way forward”, despite massive public resistance.

“70% of the ecological footprint of agriculture is due to animal proteins.”

“Why should I use animals when I can cultivate meat [in a lab]?” pic.twitter.com/tZYK4uy6ST

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

The clip captures Illy saying: “So I think that I acknowledge, let me say, there is a terrible cultural resistance from consumer to accept tech foods. But in my opinion they represent the way forward.”

He continued, “If you look at it from the ecological perspective, maybe we have to be selective. And Because we know from statistics, correct me if I’m wrong, that 70% of the ecological footprint of agriculture is due to animal proteins, and then on the other side, they kind of physiological, we know that an excessive consumption of animal proteins is the first cause of non-communicable diseases. Which are like the number one health problem in the western society.”

“So what about reducing the animal protein to the level which is healthy and increasing, also optimizing the environmental impact?” Illy suggested, adding “Why should I use animals when I can cultivate meat and get only the best part of this? This I know is a kind of cultural revolution, it will take decades.”

This push ignores growing evidence of lab-grown meat’s inefficiencies, high costs, and potential health unknowns. 

Recent developments show the sector struggling, with shutdowns like Believer Meats in late 2025 amid declining investments. 

Dutch startup Meatable also ceased operations in December 2025 after failing to secure funding. 

Meanwhile, states are cracking down: Seven Republican-led states, including Texas, have banned the manufacture, sale or distribution of lab-grown meat. 

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller blasted a federal ruling allowing a lawsuit against the state’s ban to proceed, calling lab-grown products a “Trojan horse” threatening rural livelihoods and food safety.

Davos Speaker Warns MAHA Scrutiny on Additives Will ‘Injure’ Consumers and the Planet

During another panel, WEF participant Jasmin Hume voiced concerns over heightened scrutiny of synthetic additives and dyes, partly driven by MAHA, predicting harm to consumers, industry, and the environment.

In the footage, Hume explained: “Right now, the food industry is under an unprecedented amount of stress. There are increasing and ever-evolving consumer expectations in terms of the foods that they’re purchasing and prioritizing.”

She continued, “In the United States there’s been a lot of talk recently from Make America Healthy Again And how we need to take a really close look at some compounds like synthetic additives and dyes that have been in the food system for many decades in other countries and are now coming under scrutiny.”

Davos: WEF participant Jasmin Hume argues that increased public scrutiny of the “synthetic additives and dyes that have been in the food system for many decades”—driven in part by Make America Healthy Again—will ultimately harm the consumer, the food industry and the planet.… pic.twitter.com/PDtWOOLdKL

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

“It’s really, really difficult to be able to do the level of reformulation, and not mention regulation, that has to happen at the same pace,” Hume further claimed.

Hume argued that removing these long-used compounds would require massive reformulation and regulatory changes, creating backlogs under FDA’s GRAS process. She claimed consumers would suffer from foods lacking expected nutrition and value, while industry and the planet face injury.

This defense of synthetic ingredients clashes directly with MAHA’s mission, as outlined in our previous coverage of the Trump admin’s dietary guidelines overhaul. 

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has declared war on added sugars and ultra-processed junk, prioritizing real, nutrient-dense foods to combat chronic diseases. 

The reset ends subsidies for low-quality items in federal programs, saving billions in healthcare while bolstering American farmers.

Moderna CEO Blames ‘Misinformation’ for Vaccine Hesitancy, Pins Hopes on mRNA Cancer Shots

Meanwhile, at another Davos panel on cancer care, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel lamented societal pushback against mRNA vaccines, attributing it to under-communication during the pandemic and rampant social media misinformation.

Davos: Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel blames social media “misinformation” for declining vaccination rates, insisting no corners were cut on Covid mRNA “vaccine” safety.

He predicts that mRNA cancer vaccines will “change the pendulum” of public opinion over time.

“We’ve seen what… pic.twitter.com/cMXxnJej9b

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

In the clip, Bancel expressed regret over not addressing psychological barriers more effectively, while insisting no safety corners were cut. Bancel also highlighted declining vaccination rates amid a severe flu season and expressed hope that mRNA applications in cancer and other diseases would shift public perception over time.

This comes amid ongoing debates over mRNA tech’s long-term effects, with critics pointing to excess deaths and health issues post-rollout. Yet Bancel frames resistance as tragic, overlooking widespread distrust fueled by real-world outcomes.

The Davos rhetoric exposes globalists’ desperation as MAHA dismantles Big Food’s and Big Pharma’s grip. With lab-grown meat bans spreading—now in seven states including Texas—and public demand for transparency soaring, the era of unchecked synthetic slop is crumbling. 

America’s return to real food signals a victory against technocratic overreach, putting health and sovereignty first.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Donald Trump’s opposition to the US continuing to bankroll NATO has become a defining issue in global politics, so much so that a considerable percentage of time and energy at the ongoing Davos conference has been spent talking about it.

During a panel discussion on Europe’s defense capabilities with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Finnish President Alexander Stubb argued that Europe ‘unequivocally’ has the ability to defend itself without US support. 

The claim coincides with the Finnish leader’s assertion that a ” new world order” is rising with the UN at the helm.  The suggestion has, of course, drawn scrutiny as being overly optimistic.

NOW – Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, says Europe can “unequivocally” defend itself, without the Americans. pic.twitter.com/AeHFshxBr5

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 21, 2026

Stubb’s argument hinges largely on Finland’s military reliance on the mandatory conscription of at least 1 million citizens. 

It also assumes other European nations will be able to do the same.  Conscription propaganda in the EU and UK has become commonplace in the past couple of years, and European leaders have been lamenting the lack of interest among citizens to volunteer for service.

Finland and the majority of EU nations rely heavily on US weapons systems and military personnel with the expertise to use those systems.  Then there is the extensive abilities of US intelligence resources from satellites to covert assets.  

In the case of the war in Ukraine, it was largely US resources and intel that stopped Ukraine from being completely overrun by Russian forces.  European governments have been taking a larger part in this role since Donald Trump’s return to office, but the fact remains that Russia is not fighting Ukraine so much as it is fighting NATO in Ukraine and NATO is backstopped by the US. 

This has led European leaders to misrepresent Russia’s capabilities; downplaying their gains in Ukraine and ignoring their attrition warfare methods which have been grinding down the Ukrainian military.  European elites know that Ukraine is losing despite NATO aid, which is why they have been pushing for conscription and the deployment of troops to the Ukrainian theater.  A possible motive may also be their hope that this will force the US to also deploy ground forces.

The reality is, Europe has little to no industrial capacity needed to sustain a large scale war lasting years rather than months.  They have also been quietly and quickly destroying their own energy production capabilities in the name of “climate change.”  Even worse, most Europeans citizens have no intention of dying in the trenches for governments that have openly sought to replace them with third world immigrants.  Recruitment will be difficult or impossible.   

A key problem is the fact that European nations have grown comfortable in the shade of America’s security umbrella.  They rely almost exclusively on the US as a deterrent to Russian invasion (which is highly unlikely without European provocation).  The vast majority of NATO’s defensive capability is reliant on US military spending.  And, because the US foots the bill for Europe’s defense, they are free to spend exorbitant budgets on social welfare programs like subsidized healthcare while making fun of Americans for having to pay high prices for doctor’s visits. 

Meanwhile, progressive European governments have grown increasingly hostile to free speech and freedom in general.  The crackdown against conservative and “anti-immigration” discourse has placed the EU and UK in direct confrontation with the Trump Administration.  The arrests of citizens for “crimes” as innocuous as flying a national flag or posting memes on social media in the name of “not offending people” brings into question whether or not Americans and Europeans are ideological enemies rather than friends. 

EU governments clearly want to convince their respective populations that Europe can survive without the US.  The claim is delusional.

Trump’s battles over NATO membership are hindered by the fact that the President requires a two-thirds senate vote to withdraw from the agreement.  However, his efforts to acquire Greenland present on interesting scenario.  If Trump forces the sale of Greenland (or takes Greenland by force), European governments will effectively end the NATO alliance themselves.  In other words, Trump won’t need a Senate vote.  

The general reaction from many conservatives to the threat of a broken NATO alliance is “good riddance”.  Why should Americans continue to spend their tax dollars and risk their lives coddling Europe?  It’s a response the Europeans do not seem to understand.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was envisaged as a game-changing geo-economic megaproject when it was announced in September 2023 at the G20 Summit in Delhi, was abruptly frozen by the Gaza War that broke out a month later and the West Asian War that followed.

The end of those conflicts then gave rise to optimism that Saudi Arabia would normalize ties with Israel like it reportedly planned to do prior to their outbreak as the political prerequisite for building IMEC.

After all, without the normalization of Israeli-Saudi ties, there can be no logistical connection between IMEC’s Emirati and Israeli Mideast anchors across the West Asian landmass.

Saudi Arabia requires Israel at least making superficial concessions on Palestinian independence, however, which Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to doing after the latest wars.

This dilemma might therefore derail IMEC yet again unless the US mediates a creative compromise or gets one of them to back down.

That’s difficult to imagine as a result of three fast-moving developments in December.

The first was Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s 1991 redeclaration of independence as a sovereign state. Saudi Arabia fiercely opposes this, and while it was argued here that Israel was motivated more by its rivalry with Turkiye than its one with Iran (whose Houthi allies still control North Yemen), a related motivation could have been to ensure the security of maritime trade with India in the absence of IMEC.

That’s reasonable if Israel tacitly accepted by then that the normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia won’t happen as a result of pressure upon it by the international Muslim community (Ummah) over the humanitarian consequences of the Gaza War.

Shortly afterwards, Saudi Arabia militarily aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Yemeni branch against UAE-backed South Yemen despite considering the group as a whole to be terrorists, after which South Yemen was swiftly conquered by the Saudis’ Yemeni allies.

Israel just finished a war with the Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch, Hamas, so the aforementioned development would have understandably led to a further deterioration of trust in the Saudis.

In parallel, the Saudis demanded that the UAE withdraw from South Yemen within 24 hours, which it did. That ultimatum also described the UAE’s actions in South Yemen as a threat to Saudi national security. Even though they didn’t come to blows in South Yemen, trust between them is now absolutely destroyed.

Accordingly, even if Israeli-Saudi ties were to normalize in spite of Saudi anger at Israel over its recognition of Somaliland, new Israeli distrust of the Saudis over their military alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, the Ummah’s pressure on Saudi Arabia, and new Saudi-Emirati tensions would still undermine tangible progress on building IMEC.

India’s trade with Israel and Europe will therefore remain reliant on traditional maritime routes since IMEC’s future is once again in doubt.

In fact, given how serious Saudi Arabia’s problems with the UAE and Israel are, IMEC might never get off the ground at all.

India might then strengthen its ties with those two afterwards since it could consider them to be more reliable partners, especially after Saudi Arabia’s mutual defense pact with India’s Pakistani nemesis last September that Turkiye now wants to join too.

The end of IMEC might then result in an Emirati-Indian-Israeli bloc formed in opposition to the emerging Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish one.

One of the more interesting aspects to the Thursday signing ceremony for President Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ in Davos, Switzerland was who was not in attendance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to attend the signing ceremony, but not necessarily by choice, as he is currently unable to travel to much of Europe on fears of being arrested.

In 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, alleging war crimes that included using starvation as a weapon of war and deliberately targeting civilians, as well as crimes against humanity.

Gaza sources have said over 70,000 Palestinians were killed in the some two-year long bombardment and siege of the Gaza Strip in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attacks by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Israel has countered that tens of thousands of the deceased were armed Hamas militants.

Israel was still represented at the signing ceremony, however:

Netanyahu was replaced at the summit by Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, who travelled to Davos on Tuesday and met German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

During the meeting, Herzog criticised the absence of Israeli officials from the forum and called for the removal of ICC arrest warrants issued against Israeli leaders, describing the court’s actions as “politically motivated”.

Israeli leaders have blasted the ICC, along with the US, which has actually sanctioned some ICC officials. “Israel is given here a bum rap. I think it’s dangerous. Basically, it’s the first democracy being taken to the dock when it is doing exactly what democracies should be doing in an exemplary way,” Netanyahu told CNN in a past interview. “It endangers all other democracies. Israel is first, but you’re next. Britain is next. Others are next, too.”

As for the newly initiated Board of Peace, the White House earlier this month named several members of the Trump administration, as well as international leaders, to top positions. It officially aims to mobilize international resources while overseeing Gaza’s transition and reconstruction. But critics have said it’s a colonial-style land grab and Western investment project which has nothing to do with the interests of the Palestinian people.

This is who is on the board and participated in the signing event:

• Isa bin Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, minister of the prime minister’s court, Bahrain
• Nasser Bourita, minister of foreign affairs, Morocco
• Javier Milei, president, Argentina
• Nikol Pashinyan, prime minister, Armenia
• Ilham Aliyev, President, Azerbaijan
• Rosen Zhelyazkov, prime minister, Bulgaria
• Viktor Orban, prime minister, Hungary 
• Prabowo Subianto, president, Indonesia
• Ayman Al Safadi, minister of foreign affairs, Jordan
• Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president, Kazakhstan
• Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu, president, Kosovo
• Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister, Pakistan
• Santiago Peña, president, Paraguay
• Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, president, Qatar
• Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, minister of foreign affairs, Saudi Arabia
• Hakan Fidan, minister of foreign affairs, Turkey
• Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, special envoy to the U.S. for the UAE
• Shavkat Mirziyoyev, president, Uzbekistan
• Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, prime minister, Mongolia

And here’s something deeply ironic: 11 of the 25 countries on Trump’s Board of Peace are currently banned from immigrant visas to the United States.

Jared Kushner presenting this morning at the “Board of Peace” ceremony their mock ups of “New Gaza” & “New Rafah.” pic.twitter.com/zWuhhqPVz1

— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) January 22, 2026

Trump will chair the board, which will be tasked with overseeing the next phase in Gaza. Dozens of countries have been invited to join. Notably absent from the Davos signing event were Canada, France, Germany, Italy and some other European nations.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The European Parliament has voted to ask the Court of Justice of the European Union to rule on the legality of the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, a move that delays ratification of the deal, but the European Commission could still apply the agreement “provisionally” if Germany has its way.

MEPs meeting in Strasbourg approved the referral by 334 votes to 324, following intense lobbying from farming groups and several member states opposed to the agreement. The vote took place against a backdrop of farmers’ protests outside the chamber.

The pact, signed on Saturday with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, aims to establish one of the world’s largest free trade areas by eliminating tariffs on more than 90 percent of bilateral trade, but those opposed have expressed concerns over the importation of cheaper products that need not adhere to the quality control standards European farmers must adhere to.

The vote was immediately criticized by Germany and the European Commission, both of which support the agreement and argue that it is legally sound. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the decision as “regrettable” and warned that it failed to account for Europe’s strategic interests.

“We are convinced of the agreement’s legality. No more delays. The agreement must now be applied provisionally,” Merz said on X.

Die Entscheidung des Europäischen Parlaments zum Mercosur-Abkommen ist bedauerlich. Sie verkennt die geopolitische Lage. Von der Rechtmäßigkeit des Abkommens sind wir überzeugt. Keine weiteren Verzögerungen mehr. Das Abkommen muss jetzt vorläufig angewandt werden.

— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) January 21, 2026

The European Commission said it “strongly regretted” the outcome, insisting that the legal concerns raised by parliament had already been addressed during negotiations.

“According to our analysis, the questions raised in the motion by the parliament are not justified because the commission has already addressed those questions and issues in a very detailed way,” said Olof Gill, the Commission’s trade spokesman. He confirmed that EU treaties allow for provisional application while the court review is underway.

Outside the parliament building, the reaction was markedly different. Hundreds of farmers, many arriving on tractors, gathered in Strasbourg to protest the deal, which they say would expose European agriculture to unfair competition. When the result was announced, crowds cheered and celebrated.

🟢 VICTOIRE !

Rien n’est jamais joué d’avance !
Après des mois de mobilisation agricole et plus de 7 000 agriculteurs hier à Strasbourg : le Parlement européen vient de voté la saisine de la Cour de Justice de l’UE sur l’accord #MERCOSUR.

La FNSEA et les @JeunesAgri n’ont… pic.twitter.com/HHw9wK0viE

— La FNSEA (@FNSEA) January 21, 2026

“We’ve been on this for months and months, for years,” said Quentin Le Guillous, head of a French young farmers group. “Tonight, I’m going home, I’m going to kiss everyone, and I’m going to tell my kids, ‘I got it, we got it, we can be proud.’”

France, Poland, Austria, Ireland, and Hungary have all voiced opposition to the agreement, citing risks to domestic agriculture and food standards. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the parliamentary vote strengthened that position. “The fight continues to protect our agriculture and guarantee our food sovereignty,” he said.

Several Polish politicians also welcomed the decision. “A major defeat for von der Leyen and her strategy of disregarding the European Treaties!” wrote MEP Beata Szydło, a former Polish prime minister, on X. Law and Justice MEP Maciej Wąsik said, “The farmers’ protests have brought results!” while Confederation MEP Anna Bryłka added, “Big applause for the farmers.”

Umowa UE z Mercosur wstrzymana! Zdecydowaliśmy w PE o skierowaniu skargi do TSUE. Wielka klęska von der Leyen i jej strategii lekceważenia Traktatów Europejskich! Dziś mówiłam o tym, jakim błędem i łamaniem zasad jest umowa z Mercosur: pic.twitter.com/KZzpdSe2EG

— Beata Szydło (@BeataSzydlo) January 21, 2026

Szydło also criticized Chancellor Merz’s call to apply the deal pending the judicial review, writing, “The German Chancellor’s incredible audacity in demanding that the Mercosur agreement enter into force despite the European Parliament’s decision! Does democracy mean nothing if Germans don’t like something?”

Irish MEP Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil said the Commission had ignored warnings about agricultural imports and environmental harm. “The European Commission must reflect on its own actions, respect the democratic will of the parliament and await the outcome from the European Court of Justice deliberations,” he said.

Sinn Féin MEP Lynn Boylan said the vote should energize opposition to the deal. “Today is a good day, and hopefully will give momentum to the campaign to stop this rotten trade deal,” she said.

‘Ursula von der Leyen and her commission have to go!’ — Farmers descend on Strasbourg to oppose EU-Mercosur trade deal ahead of European Parliament vote

Supporters of the agreement argued that parliament had chosen delay over substance. Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, said lawmakers had not actually voted on the merits of the deal. “The European Parliament did not take a substantive position on Mercosur today; it voted on a procedural motion instead,” he said. “This is an attempt to delay a much-needed agreement for ideological reasons.”

He, too, called for the provisional application of the trade agreement.

Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s international trade committee, was even more critical, calling the vote “absolutely irresponsible” and “an own goal” in a post on X. “Very harmful for our economic interests and standing,” he wrote.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had made a final appeal to lawmakers before the vote, warning against strategic paralysis. “The more trading partners we have worldwide, the more independent we are. And that is exactly what we need now,” she said.

The European Court of Justice is now expected to examine whether the agreement complies with EU treaties, a process that could take several months, but should the agreement be applied provisionally, celebrations among its critics and Europe’s agricultural sector could be short-lived.

Read more here…