77.5 F
Chicago
Friday, August 28, 2026
Home Blog Page 793

Tony Blair ‘Dropped’ From Trump’s Gaza ‘Board Of Peace’

0
Tony Blair ‘Dropped’ From Trump’s Gaza ‘Board Of Peace’

Via Middle East Eye

Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is no longer being considered for a seat on a “board of peace” for Gaza chaired by US President Donald Trump. According to the Financial Times, Blair’s name was dropped under pressure from several Arab and Muslim states.

The status of the “board of peace” remains unclear and while the idea has received wide coverage, few details have emerged about it. One person in Blair’s office who spoke with the FT said that only “serving world leaders” will be on the so-called board, and a smaller executive board will function under it, which will include Blair, along with Jared Kushner, the US president’s son-in-law and Trump adviser Steve Witkoff. 

via AFP

Neither Witkoff nor Kushner has visited Israel in recent weeks, with most of their overseas travel geared toward negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. Other elements of Trump’s Gaza peace plan, like an international stabilization force, appear to have stalled. 

Some regional Middle Eastern leaders had pushed for Blair’s involvement, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. A source in the Egyptian presidency previously told Middle East Eye that Sisi was “highly unlikely to object to Blair assuming leadership of the proposed administrative council for Gaza”.

However, many others raised concerns over Blair’s record in the Middle East. Apart from his involvement in the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq, his tenure as Middle East Peace Envoy failed to achieve a lasting peace solution for Israel-Palestine and was widely criticized by both sides.

A person briefed on the discussions told the Financial Times that Blair could still have a position in the future governance structures for Gaza in spite of opposition. “He could still have a role in a different capacity and that seems likely,” the person said. “The Americans like him and the Israelis like him.”

Blair’s involvement in the project was first suggested in September, with reports saying he was being considered to lead a transitional authority in the enclave. 

Trump is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 29 to discuss the next steps of the Gaza ceasefire, which despite being officially established in October has seen hundreds of Israeli violations.

On Sunday, Netanyahu said that he will be discussing with Trump the second phase of a US plan to end the war in Gaza later this month.

Wide gaps remain on key issues yet to be discussed under Trump’s plan to end the war, including Hamas disarmament, the governance of post-war Gaza and the composition and mandate of an international security force in the enclave.

“The Prime Minister will meet with President Trump on Monday December 29. They will discuss the future steps and phases, and the international stabilization force of the ceasefire plan,” Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said in an online briefing to reporters.

Netanyahu’s office said on December 1 that Trump had invited the prime minister to the White House. Israeli media have since reported that the two leaders may meet in Florida.

The Government Media Office in Gaza says Israel has carried out 738 violations in the 60 days since the ceasefire agreement was announced, accusing them of repeatedly breaching the ceasefire deal’s basic humanitarian provisions.

Officials said Israel has honored less than 40 percent of its humanitarian obligations, a failure they argue has deepened the crisis for Palestinians already living under a suffocating blockade and ongoing military pressure.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 17:00

Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

0
Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

Rich people, poorer morals? A new LendingTree report claims the shoppers most likely to rip off the self-checkout machine aren’t the desperate — they’re the well-off, according to the NY Post.

Americans making over $100,000 a year are twice as likely to steal at self-checkout compared to low-income shoppers. A hefty 40% of six-figure earners admitted they’ve deliberately skipped scanning an item, while just 17% of those making under $30,000 confessed to the same.

The Post writes that middle-income households didn’t look much better: 27% of people earning between $50K and $99K say they’ve helped themselves without paying. And men are the biggest culprits overall, with 38% admitting to theft versus only 16% of women.

Even with AI scanners and weight sensors trying to outsmart sticky fingers, self-checkout theft is still rising.

A chunk of shoppers don’t feel bad about it either. Nearly one-third say big retailers make plenty of money, so swiping something “doesn’t hurt.” Another 35% defend the habit by claiming they’re basically unpaid store workers and grabbing an item or two is “compensation.”

Still, most blame inflation rather than guilt-free shoplifting. Forty-seven percent say rising prices are forcing people to cheat at the register — meaning even wealthy shoppers might be feeling the squeeze, just not enough to pay for everything in their cart.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 16:40

“This Is Bad”: First Brands Liquidation Looms As DIP Loan Collapses

0
“This Is Bad”: First Brands Liquidation Looms As DIP Loan Collapses

In the annals of leveraged loan lunacy, few spectacles rival the ongoing implosion of First Brands Group – that debt-drenched auto parts Frankenstein stitched together by Malaysian-born serial acquirer Patrick James, who turned a sleepy Ohio outfit into a $50 billion liability leviathan before bailing amid whispers of billions siphoned into the ether.

We have followed the farce from the beginning:

Now, as this house of wiper blades and fuel pumps flails through Chapter 11 in a Houston courtroom – filed September 28 after a failed July refinancing exposed the “black box” of off-balance-sheet shadow finance that ballooned its debt from a mere $6.1 billion on-paper to a grotesque $10-50 billion total abyss – Bloomberg reports the real gut-punch is hitting the so-called “rescue” financiers: Their vaunted debtor-in-possession (DIP) loan, the supposed nuclear bunker of bankruptcy priority, is cratering below par like a bad meme stock in a margin call.

Forget the $150 million in customer payments frozen in limbo because blue-chip buyers (like a Walmart) can’t tell if they’re funding fraudulent invoices or legit Fram filters – that’s just the appetizer in this trade finance trainwreck.

The main course?

First Brands’ $1.1 billion DIP facility – pumped in by an ad hoc group of masochistic lenders who thought they were first in the repayment buffet line – is now hawked at a pathetic 70 cents on the dollar, down from par at inception and plunging further as the bankruptcy drags into December.

As one veteran credit trader stoically noted after glancing the following chart: “This is bad!!”

That’s not a dip; that’s a distress signal blaring from the bowels of a system where even the “safest” wartime financing is radioactive.

But according to Bloomberg’s reporting, it is clear that traders aren’t just pricing in default risk on this super-senior slush fund – they’re screaming that First Brands’ rot has metastasized so deep, nobody knows if there’s even a carcass left to carve up.

Investors clueless?

Hell, the entire Street looks like it wandered into a Ponzi parlor blindfolded, betting on opaque factoring deals that masked James’ alleged heists of “hundreds of millions (if not billions)” while the company burned $128 million in cash last October alone.

How we got here:

James launched Crowne Group in 2013, rebranded to First Brands in 2020, and went on a PE-fueled feeding frenzy gobbling Trico wipers, Anco blades, Fram filters, Cardone reman parts, Raybestos brakes – 24 brands strong, 26,000 employees, and a facade of stability propped by $900 million annual interest payments on $5.5 billion term loans plus $2.3 billion in hidden inventory/lease scams.

By summer ’25, a routine $6.2 billion refi imploded when lenders demanded a “Quality of Earnings” peek behind the curtain – cue the debt dump: First-lien term loans from near-par to 36 cents, second-liens to a laughable 10 cents, and the whole edifice teetering on an $800 million “liquidity buffer” that evaporated like fiat in a hyperinflation fever dream.

Enter bankruptcy: $1.1 billion DIP “rescue” (half new money, half roll-up of the old first-lien holders), founder James resigns in October amid fraud probes and prior lawsuits for hiding undercapitalized shells dating back to 2011, a November ceasefire unlocks another $600 million after creditor knife-fights, and now?

$106 million more trapped in segregated accounts as courts dissect the factoring fraud – $102 million of it non-factored, cash the zombie desperately needs but can’t touch.

This isn’t just sloppy bookkeeping; it’s a systemic indictment of Wall Street’s addiction to “supply chain finance” and invoice factoring – that greasy underbelly where suppliers hawk receivables to factors for quick bucks, offloading credit risk to chumps chasing big buyers’ AAA glow while pocketing fees on phantom liquidity.

But when the invoices turn out tainted – as First Brands’ did, sparking investor panic and redirecting payments into a confusion vortex managed by Alvarez & Marsal’s cleanup crew – the house of cards folds.

Customers ghost the debtor account, Bloomberg reports $150 million evaporates into “significant confusion,” and the DIP lenders who thought they were bulletproof wake up with a 30% haircut.

These are the same ‘smartest men in the room’ who boasted “perfect records” pre-crash, from Jefferies funds to Raistone rescuers, now staring down a “black box” where even the DIP’s “game over” warnings from court filings ring hollow.

Going forward…

It’s a bloodbath. Bloomberg’s reports that the company faces 31.5 million inflows from ops vs. $128 million outflows in October; has $20.9 million left by January’s end against a $50 million monthly burn rate; and its junior debt of $3.3 billion is trading at 16-21 cents, first-lien term loans scraping 5-7.5 cents – a distressed-debt buffet where vultures circle but even they smell liquidation.

Without unlocking that trapped customer cash, First Brands co-CRO Daniel Jerneycic warns in filings:

“I believe the (company) would be forced to seek additional funding or face a liquidity shortfall.”

Translation: More dilution, more priming fights, more proof that the shadow banking beast – Greensill 2.0, anyone? – has Wall Street by the throat.

The fallout?

Billions vaporized for everyone from bulge-bracket banks to blue-chips, a stark reminder that in the age of “risky” DIPs funded into fraud-riddled black holes, the only sure bet is the next meltdown.

First Brands isn’t surviving this; it’s a tombstone for unchecked leverage and investor amnesia.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 15:40

Adam Schiff Laments Trump Wasn’t Jailed Sooner As DOJ Turns On Him

0
Adam Schiff Laments Trump Wasn’t Jailed Sooner As DOJ Turns On Him

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., lamented that the Biden administration did not move more quickly to incarcerate President Donald Trump, suggesting that even more aggressive action could have thwarted his 2024 electoral prospects. 

Schiff, who himself is facing a federal investigation into allegations of mortgage fraud, claimed in an interview with the New Yorker Radio Hour that had former Attorney General Merrick Garland acted sooner, “we might be in a very different place today.” 

Schiff’s remarks came after podcast host David Remnick asked, “Do you feel that Merrick Garland moved too slowly, too cautiously?” 

The senator replied, “I absolutely do. Yeah.” 

Remnick then asked why Garland acted “so slowly,” adding, “What about his character or tactics or strategy led him to behave that way?” 

Schiff then misleadingly claimed that Garland had been brought in to correct what Schiff viewed as partisanship in the first Trump administration. 

These comments appear at odds with newly declassified documents that showed that the Biden-led DOJ and FBI undertook sweeping investigations targeting Trump and his allies after he left office in 2021. 

The New York Times even reported that former President Joe Biden actively supported Garland taking action against Trump. 

The Biden-led probe triggered 197 subpoenas against 430 Republican organizations and individuals. The subpoenas included phone records of at least 11 Republican lawmakers. 

These records were later transferred to Special Counsel Jack Smith, whom Garland appointed to pursue the Trump investigation under the guise of independence. 

Despite this, Schiff framed Garland’s actions as part of an attempt to restore credibility. 

“The Justice Department in the first Trump was abused and made partisan, and he wished to restore the Department’s reputation for independence,” Schiff claimed.

 “Now, what they did in the first Trump Justice Department is peanuts compared to today.” 

Schiff continued, “But nevertheless, Merrick Garland wanted to restore the reputation of the Department for strict non-partisanship. And that made him very reluctant to pursue an investigation of the president, too reluctant.” 

In conclusion, Schiff claimed that Garland’s reluctance allowed the Supreme Court time to issue a decision on presidential immunity. 

“Ultimately that gave the Supreme Court the time it needed to drag things out further and make the case against Trump go away completely when it could have been brought to fruition. And we might be in a very different place today,” he stated. 

Watch the remarks below:

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 15:20

Goldman Reminds Clients Where Travel & Leisure Cracked First Ahead Of 2008 Crisis

0
Goldman Reminds Clients Where Travel & Leisure Cracked First Ahead Of 2008 Crisis

Goldman analysts led by Lizzie Dove examined how different segments within travel and leisure reacted to, and ultimately recovered from, the 2008-09 recession. Her analysis offers a valuable framework for identifying where consumer stress tends to appear first inside the travel space and whether today’s warning signs in a K-shaped, bifurcated consumer landscape warrant closer scrutiny.

Buried in the middle of Dove’s note on the cruise industry is an infographic showing that the downturn in the cruise industry tends to be late-cycle, whereas pullbacks in gambling, airlines, and hotels typically materialize much earlier – and right before the cycle begins to turn down.

Dove pointed back to the GFC crisis, where early in the downturn Vegas and airlines cracked first:

  • Vegas gambling revenue starts falling as early as Feb–Mar 2008

  • Airlines (enplanements) show declines by mid-2008

Then hotel demand dried up in mid-cycle:

  • US RevPAR drops mid- to late-2008

Followed by the late-cycle downturn in the cruise industry:

  • Cruise net yields don’t hit peak decline until mid-2009

  • They don’t return to growth until mid-2010

So there was a full 18 to 24 months lag versus the late-cycle cruise downturn and the early-cycle pullback in Vegas and airlines.

Why highlight this consumer behavior right now?

Because the current K-shaped recovery and bifurcated spending environment are flashing early warning signs. Las Vegas trends are already pointing lower, yet airlines are still holding up, and baby boomers continue booking Caribbean cruise-line trips.

Track these consumer trends through early 2026 to see whether weakness spreads more broadly across the travel industry. If airline demand begins to fall, it will provide a much clearer indication that economic softness is widening. And if that’s the case, Powell better be open to more rate cuts.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already communicated that tailwinds for working-class consumers will begin to materialize sometime in the first quarter.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 15:00

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump’s Order Halting Wind Energy Projects

0
Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump’s Order Halting Wind Energy Projects

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Dec. 8 vacated President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that halted federal permitting and leasing for wind energy projects, saying it violated U.S. law.

U.S. District Judge Patti Saris of the District of Massachusetts ruled in favor of a coalition of state attorneys general from 17 states and the District of Columbia, which argued that federal efforts to halt authorization for wind energy projects violated the Administrative Procedure Act because the agencies failed to provide reasoned explanations for their actions.

Trump’s order directs federal agencies to halt approvals and leasing for all new offshore wind power projects pending a comprehensive review.

In a 47-page ruling, Saris stated that the order’s indefinite suspension of wind energy project authorizations violates a statutory requirement that agencies proceed to conclude matters “within a reasonable time.”

“No permits have [been] issued since the wind order was promulgated, and the agency defendants acknowledge that they will not issue any permits at least until they complete the comprehensive assessment, for which there is no timeline,” the judge stated. “That action is contrary to law.”

The judge also noted that federal agencies failed to provide “a reasoned explanation” for halting wind project authorizations, even as they were carrying out the president’s directive.

“Given that the wind order constitutes a change of course from decades of agencies’ issuing (or denying) permits related to wind energy projects, the agency defendants were required, at minimum, to ‘provide a reasoned explanation for the change’ and to ‘display awareness that (they were) changing position.’ They failed to do so,” Saris stated.

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, part of the coalition in the lawsuit, hailed the ruling as a “critical victory” for the states.

“Massachusetts has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into offshore wind, and today, we successfully protected those important investments from the Trump Administration’s unlawful order,” Campbell said in a statement.

New York Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the ruling and said there is a need to develop more energy sources, including wind energy, amid rising costs.

“I am grateful the court stepped in to block the administration’s reckless and unlawful crusade against clean energy,” she added.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended Trump’s directive, saying that offshore wind projects were given “unfair, preferential treatment” under the Biden administration while other energy sources faced burdensome regulations.

“President Trump has ended Joe Biden’s war on American energy and unleashed America’s energy dominance to protect our economic and national security,” Rogers said in a statement.

Trump has pushed to increase U.S. use of fuel and coal energy sources in a move to reduce reliance on foreign supply. On July 7, Trump signed an executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects, citing their unreliability and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.

The order states that such renewable energy sources are expensive, compromise the nation’s electric grid, and threaten national security. It instructs the Interior Department to review and eliminate regulations that give preferential treatment to wind and solar projects.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 14:40

Zelensky Says ‘Ready For Elections’ After Trump Indicated He’s An Obstacle To Peace

0
Zelensky Says ‘Ready For Elections’ After Trump Indicated He’s An Obstacle To Peace

Update(1435ET): Is this finally the end of the road for Zelensky? President Trump has really ramped up the pressure, in a fresh Politico interview signaling that the Ukrainian leader must begin to accept reality and make compromises, starting with holding elections. According to a fresh audio statement being circulated, Zelensky has newly responded by stating “I am ready for elections. I will be in Ukraine tomorrow and expect proposals from our partners and lawmakers on legal changes to allow elections during martial law,” according to a translation.

“Since this issue is being raised by the U.S. president and our European partners, I’ll be brief: I am ready. I ask the U.S., together with Europe, to ensure security for the vote. If that is done, Ukraine can hold elections within 60 days.”

Has Trump finally put some real pressure on him? It seems so. Given Zelensky had put the brakes on the US-proposed pace plan by definitively rejecting the territorial concessions aspects to the document, the US president’s assessment to Politico was blunt and highly critical, going so far as to basically call Ukraine not a democracy. “They haven’t had an election in a long time,” Trump said. “You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy anymore.”

There was also this blistering and mocking statement from Trump: “He’s a great salesman – I call him P.T. Barnum. You know who P.T. Barnum was? One of the greatest ever. He could sell any product at any time, whether it worked or not. Zelensky did the same thing: he got Crooked Joe Biden to hand him $350 billion, and now 25% of his country is gone.”

All of this means that in two months Ukraine could finally see a new leader. A likely frontrunner candidate who has some big name recognition, both in Ukraine and internationally, is Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is the former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. He was forced out by Zelensky, to the frustration and anger of many commanders, and took up his diplomatic post in July 2024.

Trump’s Politico interview made clear that Zelensky is now seen as the main obstacle to peace

The FT is reporting that Trump has given Kiev just days to accept the US ceasefire deal. Trump now wants a deal done by Christmas Day, according to the report.

* * *

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while meeting with so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ European leaders in London on Monday definitively ruled out that his country will agree to cede territory as part of a peace deal.

He specified that the question of territorial compromise is why he has not reached agreement on Donald Trump’s peace deal. “There are visions of the US, Russia and Ukraine – and we don’t have a unified view on Donbas,” Zelensky told Bloomberg.

via Associated Press

Zelensky also wants much firmer security guarantees in the Washington plan. “There is one question I — and all Ukrainians — want to get an answer to: if Russia again starts a war, what will our partners do,” he said shortly before meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz.

But the US peace plan hinges precisely on offering some level of significant territorial compromise, given that Moscow – which has the clear upper hand militarily – considers anything less to be an automatic non-starter not worth even discussing.

President Trump has recently declared that if Zelensky rejects the US plan, he should be ready to fight Russia alone and with much less Washington help. But is Trump ready to cut off weapons supplies altogether? 

Likely he’ll be content with Europe buying them, and still transferring them to Kiev. But all of this could mean that US intel sharing is finally cut off.

Meanwhile Trump has belittled ‘weak’ Europe for seeking to scrap together a counter-plan:

President Trump mocked Europe’s involvement on Monday, sharing an opinion piece which praises him for sideling “impotent Europeans” from the Ukraine peace talks. Trump has also criticized Zelensky, accusing him of not reading the latest peace proposals.

As for the US peace plan, it appears to have been primarily drafted by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev – but so far the Zelensky government has complained that it’s being cut out of the process.

Zelensky has throughout the war consistently rejected any proposal which features territorial concessions. He is supported especially be Ukrainian hardliners, both in the military and in parliament. 

Kiev and EU’s maximalist counter-demands…

Now he’s seeking to get European leaders to back him up, and they appear to be doing so. This is all a recipe for keeping the endless war going with no end in sight, and the proxy conflict nature of it continues to get dangerously out of hand.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 14:35

Federal Judge Orders Release Of Old Ghislaine Maxwell Files About Jeffrey Epstein

0
Federal Judge Orders Release Of Old Ghislaine Maxwell Files About Jeffrey Epstein

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in New York on Dec. 9 ruled that the Department of Justice (DOJ) can unseal records in the case against Jeffrey Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, weeks after the passage of a law that required the government to disclose case records related to both Epstein and Maxwell.

Judge Paul A. Engelmayer issued the ruling after the DOJ, in November, asked two judges in New York to unseal grand jury transcripts and exhibits from Maxwell and Epstein’s cases, along with investigative materials.

Last month, President Donald Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act into law, meaning that the records could be made public within roughly 10 days.

The law requires the DOJ provide Epstein-related records to the public in a searchable format by Dec. 19.

In the order, the judge wrote that the law “does not explicitly refer to grand jury materials,” but added that it “textually covers the grand jury materials in this case.”

“The Court thus finds that modification of the Protective Order is necessary to enable DOJ to carry out its legal obligations under the Act,” he added.

“The Act unambiguously applies to the discovery in this case,” Engelmayer stated, adding that “unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials” are covered in relation to Maxwell, Epstein, and connected individuals.

Nothing New

The decision comes after Engelmayer previously denied DOJ’s bid to release the documents – when he wrote that a “public official,” “lawmaker,” “pundit,” or “ordinary citizen” concerned with the Epstein case would expect them to reveal new information, based on the government’s descriptions, and “come away feeling disappointed and misled.” Most of the material is “entirely a matter of longstanding public record,” he said at the time.

The ruling was issued days after a federal judge in Florida granted the DOJ’s request to release transcripts from a grand jury investigation into Epstein in the 2000s.

Engelmayer is the second judge to allow the DOJ to publicly disclose previously secret Epstein court records. Last week, a judge in Florida granted the department’s request to release transcripts from an abandoned federal grand jury investigation into Epstein in the 2000s.

The Florida judge also cited the recent passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, noting that it supersedes DOJ rules and procedures around the sealing of grand jury materials. In its request, the DOJ wanted documents in a 2006–2007 Florida grand jury sex trafficking investigation into Epstein in which he ultimately pleaded guilty on lesser charges.

The records that Engelmayer unsealed pertain to the case against Maxwell, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison for her role in a sex trafficking scheme involving minors.

Following the signing of the Epstein law, the DOJ also submitted a request to unseal records in a New York case against Epstein before he was arrested in 2019. He was later found dead in a New York City jail cell in August 2019 as he was awaiting federal sex trafficking charges.

Another judge in New York has not yet ruled on that request connected to the final Epstein case.

Maxwell’s attorneys, in a letter to Engelmayer, opposed the release of grand jury materials because she is aiming to seek a new trial, although they noted that Maxwell “does not take a position” in response to the request to release the files.

“Releasing the grand jury materials from her case, which contain untested and unproven allegations, would create undue prejudice so severe that it would foreclose the possibility of a fair retrial should Ms. Maxwell’s habeas petition succeed,” her attorneys stated in the Dec. 3 letter.

ZeroHedge contributed to this report

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 12:00

Goldman Tracks “Lovely Polar Vortex Spinning Into Third Week”

0
Goldman Tracks “Lovely Polar Vortex Spinning Into Third Week”

Waking up across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday morning, temperatures are hovering in the upper single digits in some spots, especially in interior areas west of the I-95 corridor. Those regions have already seen their first accumulating snow, marking an early start to winter.

Goldman sales trader Ranald Falconer updated clients on weather forecasts and natural gas markets, noting that persistent cold continues to grip the eastern half of the US, while the western part of the country is experiencing well-above-seasonal temperatures.

In the gas space, I just had a glance through Sam’s note over the weekend; definitely worth a read if you are looking at gas dynamics into next year and beyond. Forecast short term in North America looks mild across the West Coast but well below in the East over the next 10 days; our lovely polar vortex looks to be spinning and behaving into the 3rd week of December, but it’s southern edge has been spilling colder air into Alaska for the last week.

This colder than normal winter in the US is driving us to leave our end of Oct26 storage balances at a relatively low level; this leaves Winter 26/27 vulnerable to tightening shocks. We maintain our $4.50/mmBtu Summer 2026 NYMEX gas price forecast, though we close our long Apr26 trading recommendation given Summer 2026 forwards are now well above our estimated marginal cost of production. This morning I have Summer 26 HH settling at $4.004 and Cal26 $4.203.

Most important takeaway for me was the impact on continued LNG growth; potential to lead NW European storage into congestion and push TTF and JKM prices low enough to reduce LNG incentives, closing the US LNG export arb and putting pressure on Henry Hub. Flagging our $2.70/$2.75/mmBtu 2028/29 NYMEX gas price forecast, well below current forwards at $3.80/$3.71

Touching on U.S. NatGas futures, unusually cold weather across parts of the Lower 48 – mostly the eastern half – sent prices sharply higher in recent weeks and months, rising from about $3.50/MMBtu at the end of October to a peak near $5.50 last week. Warmer forecasts heading into Christmas have since driven a roughly 14% pullback.

After roughly six weeks of unseasonably cold weather across the Lower 48, a warmup appears to be materializing by the middle of the month.

But then there’s this…

Related:

Global warming and climate-crisis alarmists have been unusually quiet as of late. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 11:40

Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson Argues For Supreme Power Of DC Bureaucracy

0
Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson Argues For Supreme Power Of DC Bureaucracy

Authored by ‘sundance’ via The Last Refuge,

Highlighting exactly why Barack Obama, Joe Biden and James Clyburn needed to deploy a 2021 Machiavellian strategy to get her moved onto the Supreme Court, Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) argues for the supreme power of the DC bureaucracy that must not be challenged by the President of the United States (Executive Branch).

In the case of Trump v Slaughter, the removal of the FTC Chair, Justice KBJ argues that presidential authority must be kept in check by the unelected “professionals and experts” who make up the bureaucracy underneath him.  The “No Kings” argument is entirely ridiculous given the plenary power of the executive and the constitutional authority of the office.

Ketanji Brown-Jackson was always going to be installed in the supreme court as part of the overall Obama team’s use of Joe Biden.  Merrick Garland was removed from his position specifically to create the path for KBJ to travel.  Everything about this was planned well in advance of Biden’s installation.  KBJ is to the judicial branch what BHO was/is to the executive branch.

It was February 25th, 2020, to be precise, just four days before the South Carolina Democrat primary.  South Carolina Representative James Clyburn went backstage at the presidential debate and told Biden, You’ve had a couple of opportunities to mention naming a Black woman to the Supreme Court,Clyburn lectured his friend of nearly half a century, like a schoolteacher scolding a child.I’m telling you, don’t you leave the stage tonight without making it known that you will do that.{link}

Unbeknownst to Biden at the time, just two days earlier Barack Obama and James Clyburn came to an agreement and created the most consequential alliance of the 2020 Democrat campaign. 

Barack Obama the figurative and ideological leader of the movement known as “Black Lives Matter”, and James Clyburn the figurative and ideological leader of the political construct within the African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, had struck a deal.

Obama and Clyburn really had no choice but to come to an agreement and form the alliance. 

If they did not act fast, Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum, and they could not have Sanders at the top of the 2020 ticket, because he was too outside the club system which was now almost exclusively focused on racial identity as a tool for political power.

A Bernie Sanders -vs- Donald Trump general election would have been a disaster; and it would be almost impossible for the racial operatives in the key precincts [Atlanta (GA), Philly (PA), Clark County (NV), Wayne County (Mich), Madison (WI)] to feel inspired enough to risk themselves and commit fraud to help Bernie win.

To get rid of Sanders, BLM and AME aligned.  This was the actual moment when Hillary Clinton was cast into the pit of irrelevance in Democrat politics.

Within the agreement, Obama and Clyburn selected Biden as the tool they could easily control to deliver on their larger, progressive, leftist intentions.

A few days later, James Clyburn then endorsed Biden while Barack Obama began making phone calls telling each of the other candidates to drop out in sequence and support Biden or else the club would destroy them.  The only one told not to drop out yet was Elizabeth Warren, as she would be needed as the insurance policy, the splitter against Bernie Sanders.

Each of the candidates was promised the traditional indulgences for toeing the party line, and the rest is history. 

Joe Biden wandered around doing what everyone told him to do, which was mostly stay in his basement and let the club work on his behalf, until the club delivered the nomination.

Inside that process, the strategic map was modified to ensure Ketanji Brown-Jackson would advance to the Supreme Court.

With Biden installed, he would select Merrick Garland as his Attorney General.  Judge Garland was an important judge on the important DC Circuit Court. 

Garland’s replacement would need to be a Senate confirmed seat for that court.  Brown-Jackson would be put into Garland’s open spot. {Go Deep}

As a standalone Supreme Court nominee, Brown-Jackson would have been a radical pick.  Justice Brown-Jackson is a known activist in the DC District Court; however, with this maneuver she could get through nomination easier and then sit on the highest court for thirty years.

Once Brown-Jackson was Senate confirmed for the DC Circuit Court, the countdown began until she was elevated as a Supreme Court nomination to replace Justice Stephen Bryer, now 83-years-old.  The Senate had no political ammunition to block or not confirm the radical SCOTUS pick, because she was confirmed a few months before with support from Republicans.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/09/2025 – 11:20