US futures are unchanged, with traders looking forward to two market-moving events on Wednesday: the Fed meeting (where 22bps of easing is priced in) and Oracle results. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower except for a 0.5% gain in NVDA: TSLA -0.9%, META -0.5%, GOOGL -0.3%. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were largely muted. Headlines on NVDA’s likely H200 shipment approval drove gains in stocks both during Monday trading session and pre-market today. In addition, there was an article on China is set to limit access to NVDA’s H200 chips this morning. Bond yields are fractionally lower, while the USD reverses earlier losses and is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and previous metals are higher, while base metals and Ags are lower. Key focus today are Small Business Optimism and JOLTS.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia up 0.1%, paring earlier gains, after the FT reported that China’s regulators are discussing ways to limit permits for access to its H200 semiconductors (Amazon +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Tesla -0.9%). 

• Almonty Industries (ALM) is down 14% to $6.79 after the company priced 18 million shares at $6.25 each for $112.5 million in gross proceeds.
• Ares Management (ARES) rises 8.1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500, effective Dec. 11.
• Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) falls 4.6% after the luxury builder beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, while providing full-year guidance for 2026 that fell below expectations.
• Viking Holdings (VIK) rises 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the cruise operator to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, peer Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) falls 2.5% as the bank downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

US stocks may be more volatile after tomorrow’s Fed meeting than after other recent decisions because of diverging views among Fed officials, with Bloomberg options data showing an implied move of 0.7% in either direction. Globally, central banks are starting to tilt more hawkish, upending yields. Meanwhile, while buyside investors have said they’re feeling risk-on into 2026, a poll of Goldman Sachs clients shows their bullish views about AI and US stocks are moderating.

Elsewhere, a recent jump in Treasury yields has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of monetary easing beyond Wednesday’s meeting. Money markets now see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25bps hawkish cut tomorrow, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.

“Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”

Stoxx 600 little changed, with outperformance for German and Italian stocks, offset by weakness in France. The defense sector is rallying as Germany prepares to authorize a record amount of orders for military gear and services. Other sectors are muted amid concerns about the path of monetary policy at global central banks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Orsted shares jump as much as 4.4% to their highest level in four months after a US federal judge ruled President Donald Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects is illegal.
• Rusta gains as much as 13%, the most since June, after the Swedish discount retailer reported second-quarter earnings that DNB Carnegie described as “much stronger than expected,” with sales growth accelerating.
• Man Group shares gain as much as 5.2%, touching their highest level since February, after JPMorgan says there are “reasons to be cheerful” about the European diversified financials sector heading into 2026, with a brighter economic outlook offering a supportive backdrop for equity markets.
• Thungela shares rally as much as 6.7% after the coal miner said in a statement that it expects its export saleable production from its South African operations for 2025 to exceed its guidance range.
• BAT shares decline as much as 5.4% after the company said it expects revenue growth in 2026 at the lower end of its mid-term guidance.
• Thyssenkrupp shares slide as much as 13%, paring this year’s huge gains, after the German industrial firm’s 2026 guidance missed estimates. Morgan Stanley said the weak outlook outweighed a full-year results beat.
• Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 11%, the most intraday in a month, after CMA CGM offered about €325m senior unsecured bonds due 2028 exchangeable for shares of the airline operator.
• EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 5%, the most since May, on competition concerns after Alphabet’s Google said it’s working to create two different categories of artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses.
• OCI shares slump as much as 18%, reaching a record low, after the Dutch chemical maker announced a merger with Orascom Construction, an engineering and construction contractor based in Abu Dhabi.
• Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 8.9% after Morpheus Research published a report on the German company and said it’s short the stock.

Earlier in the session, Hang Seng Tech Index drops more than 1.5% and mainland China indexes are better offered. The ChiNext stands out with a modest gain. Kospi, Taiex and ASX 200 indexes are nursing small losses, while Japanese stocks are broadly unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index marginally weaker. Aussie dollar among the strongest major currencies after the RBA said it was done with rate cuts in this cycle, which sent Aussie bond yields soaring.

In rates, bonds are recovering slightly from the selloff in the prior session in Europe, with outperformance in longer maturities. Ten-year bund yields down two basis points. Treasuries mixed, with yields lower at the long end, unchanged at the short. 10-year TSY yields, little changed around 4.165%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 0.5bp. Treasury curve spreads are mostly within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, with 5s30s near 105bp holding Monday’s sharp flattening move. Rangebound price action precedes 10-year note auction at 1pm New York time, following October JOLTS job openings data during US morning. Treasury coupon auctions cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening, a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC communications. Cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening. WI 10-year yield near 4.165% is ~9bp cheaper than the November sale, which tailed by 0.6bp

In commodities, gold prices higher, up by around $12 to $4,202/oz. Oil prices fluctuating, with Brent futures trading up to around $62.60/barrel.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes September Leading index and October JOLTS job openings (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.1 points at 16.77
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.31
• euro little changed at $1.1648
• WTI crude +0.4% at $59.1/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Says U.S. Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut: BBG
• China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump export approval: FT
• China’s top leaders are signaling they are on alert for a potential flareup of tensions in global commerce as they draw up economic plans for next year, after amassing a record trade surplus despite the tariff war with the US: BBG
• President Donald Trump signaled he could impose fresh tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, the latest sign that protracted negotiations with two US trading partners could drag on: BBG
• US farmers said the Trump administration’s $12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
• Oil market faces ‘super glut’ as supply surge hits prices, Trafigura warns: FT
• China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs: WSJ
• Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away: BBG
• German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion ($61 billion) next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army: BBG
• South Korea’s National Pension Service has recently started selling dollars to bolster the won, according to a person familiar with the matter, reviving earlier efforts to support the currency: BBG
• Investors increase bets on ECB rate rise in threat to dollar: FT
• Chinese stocks slumped in Hong Kong as investors reacted to a lack of stimulus signals from a meeting of top Communist Party leaders and turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision: BBG
• Lithuania declares state of emergency over smuggler balloons from Belarus: FT
• Trump Rails Against Europe, Threatens Expanded Anti-Drug Strikes: BBG
• Boaz Weinstein’s $2bn flagship hedge fund sinks amid buoyant markets: FT
• Warner Bros. Rival Bids Put Spotlight on Flagging Cable Networks: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
• China is set to limit access of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, via FT citing sources; no decision has been made on the matter
• US President Trump posted that ”Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years.” Trump added that the “U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”
• US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
• Chinese Premier Li said at the ‘1 + 10’ dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China. ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday’s Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump’s announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.

Top Asian News

• RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
• RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
• China’s Premier said “we are confident in completing economic goals this year”, according to Xinhua.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said he believes that the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond that. “Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we have been adjusting the degree of easing slowly”. As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, this has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating negative effects on employment and production in Japan. Strong enough momentum in domestic price and wage dynamics to prevent negative shocks from having a large impact on inflation. At the moment, not seeing a very high risk of inflation, especially underlying inflation accelerating in the wake of fiscal stimulus. Watching the possibility of food inflation and JPY weakness altering inflation expectations. It is the government’s job to deliver on medium to long-term fiscal sustainability. Keep an eye on bank exposure to non-bank financial institutions abroad. Exchange rates should follow fundamentals. How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is a “very important question for us.”
• BoJ Governor Ueda said he won’t comment on specifics on interest rates but noted that long-term interest rates are rising rather rapidly recently, adding that it will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with mild gains, then clambered higher soon after the cash open – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with indices now broadly in the red. European sectors opened without bias and continue to fare this way. Financials, Insurance and Banks lead the charge, helped by the continued constructive yield environment, while Basic Resources underperforms as the metals rally loses steam.

Top European News

• European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
• Germany is to approve EUR 52bln in military orders, via Bloomberg.
• NBP’s Duda said it is necessary to wait before cutting rates to assess the impact of reductions already made on the economy.

FX

• DXY resides within a narrow 98.97-99.14 range with the index testing 99.00 to the downside shortly after the European cash equity open, with newsflow on the quieter side as trades look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC with eyes on the dot plots. The index remains well within yesterday’s 98.79-99.22 parameter. Trade headlines have been more conciliatory between the US and China, after US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. On the docket ahead, the US data slate features weekly ADP jobs data, as well as JOLTs data for September (7.199mln expected vs a prior 7.227mln; in August, the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the quits rate eased by 0.1ppts to 1.9%).
• AUD is the outperformer this morning after the RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. AUD/USD tested levels near 0.6650 from a 0.6610 base.
• JPY lags following yesterday’s weakness on the 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which did later see all advisories eventually lifted. USD/JPY saw a dip lower on hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda after he noted, “How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is “very important question for us.” USD/JPY resides in a 155.74-156.43 range after tipping yesterday’s 155.98 peak, with the next upside level the 28th Nov peak at 156.58.
• GBP and EUR trade with modest gains in quiet newsflow, with GBP/USD on either side of 1.3350 and EUR/USD printing on either end of 1.1650. Strength in the GBP in the early part of this morning’s session lacked a clear catalyst.

Fixed Income

• USTs were initially slightly this morning, but then caught a slight bid. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-05+ to 112-12+ range. The upside seen in the morning came alongside FX-related commentary by BoJ Governor Ueda, which sparked some demand in the Yen, which led to a broader pick-up across havens (bonds/gold). On the trade front, President Trump said he would allow NVIDIA H200 chip shipments to China, which has seemingly lifted sentiment a touch in Europe/US equity futures. Elsewhere, Trump threatened Mexico with an extra 5% tariff amidst a water dispute. Ahead, markets await the Weekly US ADP Prelim Average, JOLTS data and a 10-year auction.
• Bunds started the European session with modest strength, attempting to scale back some of its recent losses; currently trading within a 127.26 to 127.66 range; the low for the day is a couple of ticks below Monday’s trough. Though soon after the cash open, Bunds moved a touch lower amidst a pick-up in European equities – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with Bunds now back in the green by roughly 15 ticks. Earlier, German Exports rose 0.1% (exp. -0.5%), whilst Imports disappointed – overall, ING suggests the data shows that Germany is unlikely to be pulled out of stagnation by its exports. Most recently, in line with peers, the benchmark has picked up to trade near highs.
• OATs are higher, but underperforming vs European peers, as traders count down their clocks to a key National Assembly Vote on the 2026 social security budget; if passed, PM Lecornu would have successfully resolved issues which have led to failure for the prior two PMs. In brief, recent pension/healthcare spending concessions have earned Lecornu support from the Socialists, who are expected to vote in favour of the bill, whilst support from the right has waned – Politico writes that “it’s not looking great”. Overall, the outcome could heighten political turbulence and uncertainty over France’s plans to address gaps in its public finances.
• Gilts trade higher alongside peers; currently at the upper end of a 90.63 to 91.22 range. Focus ahead will be on the BoE TSC hearing, with the likes of Ramsden (Dove), Lombardelli (Neutral), Mann (Hawk) and Dhingra (Dove) all set to appear.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent have seemed to have stabilised following Monday’s risk-off selloff. Benchmarks extended below Monday’s trough of USD 58.62/bbl and USD 62.34/bbl, respectively, to a low of USD 58.59/bbl and USD 62.24/bbl as the APAC session came to an end. Thus far, benchmarks trade muted in a c. USD 0.40/bbl range with the EIA to release its STEO later today.
• Spot XAU failed to extend beyond the key support level at USD 4176/oz, troughing at USD 4170/oz, before reversing higher as the dollar continued to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. XAU gradually rose c. USD 35/oz higher to a session high of USD 4209/oz as the European session gets underway, aided by hawkish comments by BoJ’s Ueda, which pressured USD/JPY and in turn, weakened DXY.
• 3M LME Copper continued to pull back from its ATH formed in Monday’s session, set at USD 11.75k/t, following a disappointing readout from the Politburo and a cautious risk tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal gradually fell from a session high of USD 11.66k/t to a trough of USD 11.43k/t throughout the APAC session. Currently, losses have been slightly pared back as the European session gets underway, with 3M LME Copper trading back above USD 11.5k/t
• Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average.
• Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russian drones attacked its gas infrastructure

Geopolitics

• Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
• Russia’s Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are “complete nonsense”.

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.3, prior 98.2
• 10:00 am: Sep Leading Index, est. -0.31%
• 10:00 am: Oct JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7117k

DB’s Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Zurich after a day in sunny Geneva yesterday as the 2026 World Outlook roadshow moves on to audiences that don’t quite rival the recent Oasis tour but are decent nonetheless. Tickets are undoubtedly cheaper. Bonds continue to cheapen up as well as the recent sell-off has showed no signs of letting up over the last 24 hours, with global yields moving higher as investors reacted to several headlines, including hawkish comments from multiple officials. So by the close, 10yr bund yields (+6.4bps) had posted their biggest daily jump since August to reach 2.86%, which is their highest level since March after the fiscal stimulus announcements. Meanwhile in the US, 10yr Treasury yields (+2.9bps) closed at 4.17%, their highest since September. Remember that’s building on the +12bps increase last week, which was already the biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day turmoil in April. This follows big recent rises in yields in places like Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand in recent weeks. For yesterday the yield rise meant that the S&P 500 (-0.35%) fell back after four consecutive gains.  

The initial catalyst for yesterday’s additional sell-off was a Bloomberg interview with the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel. That came out before the European open, with her suggesting that “I’m rather comfortable” with expectations that the next move would be a hike. Moreover, she made other hawkish comments, saying that “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside”, and that she believed that the equilibrium or neutral interest rate that neither restricts nor stimulates economic activity (r*) could rise because of AI and public investment. So collectively, that served as the initial trigger for the selloff, and euro overnight index swaps for December 2026 moved +8.0bps higher on the day.

Unsurprisingly, this hawkish repricing led to a huge reaction among European government bond yields, particularly at the front end. For instance, yields on 2yr German (+6.4bps) and French (+5.8ps) debt moved up to their highest level since March, right after the German government had announced their plans to reform the constitutional debt brake to permit extra borrowing. And notably, the 30yr German yield (+3.1bps) moved up to 3.46%, its highest level since summer 2011 as the Euro crisis escalated. So there was a real sense yesterday that markets were pricing back in a pre-GFC normal of higher long-term rates, particularly given the background concerns over the current fiscal trajectory.  

Putting all the yield moves in perspective, over the last month 10yr Australian (+36bps), Japanese (+26bps) New Zealand (+39bps), Canadian (+25ps) and German (+19bps) lead the way. The likes of the UK (+7bps) and the US (+6bps) have actually held in better, even if they are up more from their lows, but yesterday saw US yields rise as we heard from Kevin Hassett, who’s now considered the strong favourite (77% on Polymarket) to become the next Fed Chair. He was asked yesterday how many rate cuts there should be in 2026, but he struck a cautious tone, saying “what you need to do is watch the data.” So given his previous calls for more rate cuts, that was interpreted in a more hawkish light.

Those comments and the global backdrop meant investors meaningfully dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts next year. For instance, the amount of further cuts priced in by December 2026 came down -3.9bps on the day to 78bps. And in turn, that meant US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. So the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) moved up to 3.58%, while the 10yr yield (+2.9bps to 4.17%) and the 30yr yield (+1.0bps to 4.80%) both reached their highest levels since September. Remember that the two-day FOMC meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision, and the last dot plot in September only signalled one further cut in 2026 after the December cut expected tomorrow. So the dot plot already has a more hawkish profile than futures are pricing, and there was also a wide dispersion around that, with 8 out of the 19 officials above the median, so it would only take two more to push that higher. So there’s heightened uncertainty among investors going into that.  

All this proved a tougher backdrop for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.35%) falling back after a run of 4 consecutive gains. To be fair, the move kept the index less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October, but there was a clear loss of momentum as yields moved higher. The decline was broad-based, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day, led by communication services (-1.77%) and materials (-1.66%). The Magnificent 7 (-0.91%) posted its worst day in over two weeks even as semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by a +1.72% gain for Nvidia. Meanwhile in Europe, the equity losses were more muted, but the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) also fell back.  

Overnight Mr Trump has granted permission for Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge for the government. Nvidia gained an extra 2% in after-hours trading.

Asian equity markets are predominantly weaker this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) the largest underperformer in the region, with the CSI (-0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) also lower alongside the KOSPI (-0.41%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.45%). The Nikkei is flat alongside US equity futures.  

Overnight, the RBA has maintained its cash rate target at 3.60% in a unanimous decision, marking the third consecutive meeting in which rates have been held steady, following 75bps of cuts in 2025. The press conference was hawkish and emphasised that they are considering a hike and suggested February was under consideration. Following this, the Australian dollar is +0.33% higher against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bonds have surged by +10.2bps to reach 4.14%. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +5.4bps, trading at 4.76% as we go to print. So the sell-off in G10 rates continues and Kiwi bond yields are up a similar amount this morning. However, 10-year JGBs are pausing for breath with 10yr yields down by -0.8bps overnight after closing +2.8bps higher yesterday, reaching another post-2007 high of 1.96%.  

Finally on Ukraine, there was no new progress on the peace talks, with President Zelenskiy saying there were still disagreements on territory, and that he wanted answers on security guarantees for Ukraine. After a meeting with UK’s Starmer, France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz in London, Zelenskiy added that Ukraine would share its revised plan with the US today. Oil prices did fall back yesterday, although that reflected the global sell-off rather than geopolitical developments, with Brent crude down -1.98% to $62.49/bbl.   

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September and October, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, whilst the BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden, Mann and Dhingra will be appearing before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.

After a dismal few months, the US labor market turned up for the four weeks ending Nov. 22, 2025, private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs a week., according to ADP’s new weekly employment data

This week’s positive number hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates, after four straight weeks of losing jobs.

This follows the almost unprecedented decline in initial jobless claims last week (which some have argued was impacted by Thanksgiving Week irregularities).

Is this the start of the end of the Low-Fire, Low-Hire economy? It’s a little too early to tell, especially after the 120,000 collapse in small business jobs last month reported by ADP.

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

• Sovereignty is shifting from public institutions to private tech entities like Palantir and SpaceX, which secure massive government contracts and offer “governance as a service.”

• The AI boom’s massive resource demands, particularly for energy and water, are being subsidized by the public, driving up costs while “efficiency” in the workplace leads to widespread job deletion and the flattening of the middle class.

• To address this shift, a new social contract is required, including adopting a Sovereign Equity Model for government-funded ventures, implementing an automation tax to replace eroded payroll taxes, and moving toward Universal Basic Services.

The stock market is hitting record highs. GDP growth is in the green. Tech valuations are defying gravity… fueled by a promise that artificial intelligence is going to generate trillions of dollars in wealth.

And yet… everything feels kinda…terrible? 

Jobs are disappearing, not in a crash, but in a slow fade. Prices for essentials remain stubbornly high. The divide between the digital economy and physical reality has never been wider. 

We are told this is just a transition period. We are told that “efficiency” is messy… but necessary.

But the unease you feel isn’t irrational. The green arrows on the stock charts aren’t measuring the health of the everyday economy anymore. They are measuring the success of a takeover.

We are watching a fundamental shift in how the state operates. Sovereignty is shifting from public institutions to a network of private entities. And in many ways, we are holding the door open for them.

When Silicon Valley Bought the State

For years, we talked about the “revolving door” between business and government.

The idea was that regulators would leave office and take cushy jobs at the companies they used to police. It was a conflict of interest… but one we understood.

That metaphor doesn’t really fit anymore. This is more like a merger.

A specific network of billionaires and venture capitalists has moved beyond lobbying. They are now building the state infrastructure themselves.

They don’t want to influence the rules. They want to be the ones writing the code that executes the rules.

Look at the players involved…

• Peter Thiel: The billionaire founder of Palantir, who has explicitly stated that he no longer believes “freedom and democracy are compatible.”

• Elon Musk: Who uses his platforms to amplify “techno-populism” while securing massive government contracts.

• Marc Andreessen: The venture capitalist whose “techno-optimist manifesto” calls for unlimited acceleration of technology, regardless of the social cost.

These aren’t just businessmen. They are state-builders.

And they’ve spent the last decade funding a pipeline of personnel to place into key government positions. 

Thiel’s former chief of staff, Michael Kratsios, directed the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

An executive from Anduril, a defense contractor backed by Thiel’s Founders Fund, was nominated as Army under-secretary while still holding up to $1 million in company stock.

This pipeline has paid off. In late 2024 and 2025, we saw a massive consolidation of federal power into private hands.

• SpaceX: The company secured a $1.8 billion classified contract with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to build a vast spy satellite network.

• 1789 Capital: A venture firm joined by Donald Trump Jr. backed a company called Vulcan Elements… which immediately landed a $620 million Pentagon contract.

• Palantir: By late 2024, 55% of their revenue—roughly $1.7 billion—came directly from government sales.

They have realized that the most profitable business model isn’t just selling products to consumers. It is offering “governance as a service.”

We look at this efficiency and applaud it. But it raises a difficult question: When a private company runs the software that powers the state, who is actually in charge?

Abundance for Them, Scarcity for You

This new system requires fuel. A lot of it.

The leaders of this shift love to talk about “abundance.” Listen to Sam Altman or other AI evangelists, and they will tell you we are on the verge of a “fusion utopia.” They promise that AI will eventually solve climate change and give us limitless, clean energy.

That is the sales pitch. And maybe, one day, it will be true. But the reality today is a story of immediate resource pressure.

To power the massive data centers required for their AI models, these companies are tapping into the American energy grid at an unprecedented scale.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), power consumption from data centers is projected to more than double… rising from 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030.

To put that in perspective… that is roughly the equivalent of adding the entire electricity consumption of Japan to the global grid in just six years.

Where will this power come from?

Not from the magic fusion reactors of the future. It is coming from the grid you rely on today.

In the PJM electricity market, which covers 13 states from Illinois to New Jersey, the demand from data centers has already driven capacity prices up.

To meet this need, the government is pivoting.

The Department of Energy is increasingly financing coal and natural gas expansion to keep the servers humming.

It creates a difficult dynamic:

• Tech giants lock down “clean” baseload power… like Microsoft’s deal to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant solely for their own use.

• The public grid is pushed to rely more on the volatile “spot market,” often powered by gas.

• Communities deal with the environmental cost… including the 6 billion gallons of water Google’s data centers consumed in 2024. 

It isn’t necessarily malicious…It’s just math. But the math ends with the public paying higher bills to subsidize yet another part of the AI boom.

How “Efficiency” Is Deleting the Middle Class

This shift isn’t just happening on your electric bill. It is happening in the workplace.

The stock market is rallying on the promise of “efficiency.” And let’s be honest, technology does make things more efficient. But for the workforce, “efficiency” often looks like a closing door.

We often look at headline-grabbing layoff numbers. And they are significant. In the first few months of 2025 alone, over 126,000 tech workers lost their jobs, according to Crunchbase.

But the bigger story is what happens after the layoff.

It is a phenomenon called “silent firing.”

Companies aren’t just letting people go. They are simply… not hiring replacements. When a worker leaves, the role is dissolved, or the tasks are handed over to software.

According to a report by Zety and Allwork, 73% of workers reported experiencing “quiet firing” tactics in 2025… where support is withdrawn and roles are made redundant without a formal announcement.

The entry-level jobs are being automated first. If you are a junior analyst, a copywriter, or a coder fresh out of college… the job you would have taken five years ago is harder to find.

This flattens the middle class. It creates a gap where new careers should be. And the industry leaders know this is happening.

The Trap of Outsourcing Global Sovereignty

This isn’t just an American dynamic. This new model of “privatized sovereignty” is being exported globally.

Europe, for example, talks a lot about “Digital Sovereignty.” 

They want to be independent. But building your own tech stack is expensive and slow. 

A report by the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) estimates that achieving true digital independence would cost Europe €3.6 trillion.

Most nations aren’t willing…or able…to pay that bill. So, they sign contracts.

74% of publicly listed European companies now depend entirely on U.S. tech stacks.

Look at the United Kingdom. 

The NHS signed a £330 million deal with Palantir to build its data platform. It’s efficient. It works. But it means a U.S. company now manages the health data of the British public.

Look at Ukraine. Their defense relies heavily on Starlink. It has saved countless lives. But it also means their military communications rely on the goodwill of a single American company.

It is a trade-off. These nations get the best technology in the world. But they become ‘client states’ in the process. You cannot have a truly independent foreign policy when your defense infrastructure is leased from a company in California.

And if a G7 nation can be reduced to a client state, the individual American worker doesn’t stand a chance.

The architects know this. That is why they have prepared a specific ‘safety net’ for the people they intend to make obsolete. 

UBI Is a Trojan Horse

We need to talk about the “safety net” the architects are promising us.

Every tech billionaire has the same talking point: AI is going to take all the jobs, so we will need Universal Basic Income (UBI).

It sounds generous. It sounds inevitable. But if you look at their actions, it looks less like a safety net and more like a trap. While they preach UBI in the future, they are actively dismantling the machinery required to fund it in the present.

Elon Musk frequently claims that UBI will be “necessary” in an AI future. Yet, he lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an initiative explicitly designed to slash federal spending by trillions.

You cannot have it both ways. 

You cannot gut the federal budget, fire the administrators, dismantle the tax collection agency (IRS), and then claim you are going to distribute a monthly check to 330 million Americans.

And it’s not like he’s going to give away his own money, either. 

He recently stated: “The biggest challenge I find with my foundation is trying to give money away in a way that is truly beneficial to people.”

He is literally telling us that he finds philanthropy “too difficult.” If he can’t figure out how to give away his own money, why should we trust him to build a system to give away the nation’s money?

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, advocates for a “Moore’s Law for Everything,” where we tax capital to fund a citizen’s dividend. 

But his actual product, Worldcoin, reveals the true business model.

Worldcoin doesn’t give you a dividend as a right of citizenship; it gives you a crypto token in exchange for scanning your iris. It creates a proprietary database of human biometrics owned by a private company. 

This is a customer acquisition strategy. He wants to build a user base, not a social safety net.

And for figures like Peter Thiel, UBI isn’t even meant to help the poor. They aim to delete the government. 

UBI is the severance package for the “nanny state.” The deal is simple: cut every citizen a check, and in exchange, eliminate Social Security, Medicare, and public infrastructure.

It sounds like freedom, but it is a bad trade.

Even if the check is large, it cannot replace the leverage of the state. 

The government negotiates wholesale prices for healthcare and runs transit at a loss for the public good. 

If you replace those systems with cash, you force individuals to buy “retail” in a market that knows exactly how much money they just received.

You are trading a durable right to services for a volatile subscription to them. And as any Netflix user knows, the price of the subscription always goes up.

Auditing the Myth of the “Self-Made” Empire

Before we talk about solutions, we have to look at the receipts. We need to audit the myth of the “self-made” techno-oligarch.

The narrative they sell is one of libertarian genius…that they built these empires in a garage, fighting against the heavy hand of the state.

The reality is that the state was their angel investor.

We…were their angel investor. 

• Tesla survived its most critical moments thanks to a $465 million Department of Energy loan in 2010.

• SpaceX exists because NASA awarded them huge contracts when the private market wouldn’t touch them.

• Palantir was literally incubated by the CIA’s venture arm, In-Q-Tel.

• OpenAI is currently lobbying for a $500 billion infrastructure investment, asking for taxpayer-funded power grids and tax credits to build data centers.

On top of the direct cash, the founders and CEOs have benefited from a tax code designed to let them hoard it.

The 2017 tax cuts slashed the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, and loopholes allow them to borrow against their stock holdings to live tax-free, while the average worker pays income tax on every paycheck.

Then there is the hidden subsidy: resource extraction.

When a data center drains a local aquifer to cool its servers, forcing the local town to upgrade its water treatment plant… the town pays for that upgrade. The company gets the cooling; the public pays the bill.

But it isn’t just water. It is the air itself.

Despite the ‘net-zero’ press releases, the dirty secret of the AI boom is diesel. 

To guarantee 99.999% reliability, these facilities rely on banks of massive generators. 

In some counties, data centers are permitted to burn enough fuel to rival a major airport, pumping exhaust into local lungs to ensure a chatbot in California never lags.

And it is the noise. 

These things are massive, concrete fortresses emitting a constant, low-frequency roar—a mechanical drone that penetrates walls and disrupts sleep for miles. It is the sound of local quality of life being liquidated for uptime.

Then there is the infrastructure bill. 

The enormous power draw requires billions in new transmission lines. But the tech companies often aren’t the ones paying for those upgrades…you are.

We have socialized the risks, the infrastructure costs, and the pollution, but privatized the profits, the intellectual property, and the control.

Demanding a Return on Our Investment

So… where do we go from here?

The old social contract was simple: Corporations make money, and in return, they provide jobs.

That contract is void.

They are building systems explicitly designed to remove the need for jobs. 

The “Return on Investment” for the public is no longer employment. And it certainly isn’t UBI, which remains a distant fantasy while the tax base to pay for it is eroded.

If the public is going to put up the capital, and deal with the consequences of ballooning energy and resource use, the public should see a return.

We need a new model for ROI.

The Sovereign Equity Model

In the venture capital world, if an investor puts up the money to de-risk a technology, they get equity. They get a seat on the board. They get a share of the upside.

Yet, when the U.S. taxpayer does it, we call it a “subsidy.”

The CHIPS Act alone funneled $52 billion into semiconductor manufacturing…

While the taxpayers who funded this got nothing but the bill.

This is bad business.

We need to adopt a Sovereign Equity Model. 

If a company wants a government loan, a tax credit, or a guaranteed energy contract, the government should take equity warrants in return. This isn’t radical socialism… It’s basic capitalism. 

It is exactly what Warren Buffett did when he bailed out the banks in 2008. He didn’t give them free money…he bought warrants that eventually made Berkshire Hathaway billions.

We already have a successful blueprint for this in the Alaska Permanent Fund. 

Since 1976, the state of Alaska has treated its oil reserves not as private bounty, but as a shared asset. When the oil flows, a portion of the revenue is deposited into a sovereign wealth fund, which then pays out an annual dividend to every resident.

We should treat our digital and energy infrastructure the same way. 

The profits from these government-backed equity stakes shouldn’t disappear into the black hole of the general budget; they should flow into a ring-fenced National Wealth Fund that pays dividends directly to the citizenry.

If the American people are taking the risk, we should own the upside.

Tax the Robots to Save the Tax Base 

The U.S. tax code is currently rigged to favor machines over people.

If you hire a human, you pay payroll taxes, social security, and healthcare. If you buy a GPU cluster to do the same job, you get a tax write-off for “depreciation.” We are effectively subsidizing our own replacement.

We need to rebalance the ledger with an automation adjustment.

This is not about punishing innovation… It’s about fiscal survival. Payroll taxes consistently account for roughly 30-35% of all federal revenue. If AI fulfills the promise of displacing millions of workers… that revenue stream collapses. The deficit explodes. The economy breaks.

Bill Gates, hardly a socialist, made this point explicitly: “Right now, the human worker who does $50,000 worth of work in a factory… that income is taxed… If a robot comes in to do the same thing, you’d think that we’d tax the robot at a similar level.”

If a company replaces a human workflow with an AI agent, the economic output remains, but the tax contribution vanishes. We need to attach a levy to that output.

Data Dividends

Data is the new oil. We have heard the cliché a thousand times. But we aren’t treating it like oil.

The AI models generating trillions in value were trained on the collective output of humanity. They scraped our journalism, our art, our open-source code, and our personal data. They harvested the “digital commons” for free… processed it… and are now selling it back to us at $20 a month.

In any other industry, this would be theft. If you drill for oil on someone else’s land, you pay royalties. If you use someone else’s timber, you pay for the lumber.

The generative AI market is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2032….

The raw material that fuels that market cannot be priced at zero. If our data is the raw material for their product, we are the suppliers. And suppliers get paid.

Universal Basic Services 

If we give everyone a $5,000 UBI check, but the price of housing, energy, and internet doubles… we haven’t solved anything. We have just subsidized the landlords and the utility companies.

The smartest Return on Investment is to lower the “overhead” of being alive in America.

We should move toward Universal Basic Services (UBS). Use the proceeds from the equity stakes, the automation taxes, and the data dividends to fund the inputs of the modern economy:

• Public Compute: Treat processing power like a public utility. Build state-owned clusters available to researchers and startups at cost, breaking the pricing power of the tech giants.

• Green Public Transit: Make car ownership optional, removing a massive monthly debt anchor from the working class.

• Digital Infrastructure: High-speed internet should be a right, not a subscription service dominated by regional monopolies.

We are hitting the physical limits of our energy grid. We are seeing the limits of the old labor model. We might have to accept that “infinite growth” isn’t compatible with a finite planet.

But “no growth” doesn’t have to mean poverty.

The vibes are off because deep down… we know the deal has changed. We are moving from a world of public institutions to a world of private platforms.

The “New Operating System” is being installed. And it is faster. It is more efficient. It is undeniably impressive.

But we have to decide if we want to be the owners of this new future… or just the users.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while meeting with so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ European leaders in London on Monday definitively ruled out that his country will agree to cede territory as part of a peace deal.

He specified that the question of territorial compromise is why he has not reached agreement on Donald Trump’s peace deal. “There are visions of the US, Russia and Ukraine – and we don’t have a unified view on Donbas,” Zelensky told Bloomberg.

Zelensky also wants much firmer security guarantees in the Washington plan. “There is one question I — and all Ukrainians — want to get an answer to: if Russia again starts a war, what will our partners do,” he said shortly before meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz.

But the US peace plan hinges precisely on offering some level of significant territorial compromise, given that Moscow – which has the clear upper hand militarily – considers anything less to be an automatic non-starter not worth even discussing.

President Trump has recently declared that if Zelensky rejects the US plan, he should be ready to fight Russia alone and with much less Washington help. But is Trump ready to cut off weapons supplies altogether? 

Likely he’ll be content with Europe buying them, and still transferring them to Kiev. But all of this could mean that US intel sharing is finally cut off.

Meanwhile Trump has belittled ‘weak’ Europe for seeking to scrap together a counter-plan:

President Trump mocked Europe’s involvement on Monday, sharing an opinion piece which praises him for sideling “impotent Europeans” from the Ukraine peace talks. Trump has also criticized Zelensky, accusing him of not reading the latest peace proposals.

As for the US peace plan, it appears to have been primarily drafted by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev – but so far the Zelensky government has complained that it’s being cut out of the process.

Zelensky has throughout the war consistently rejected any proposal which features territorial concessions. He is supported especially be Ukrainian hardliners, both in the military and in parliament. 

Kiev and EU’s maximalist counter-demands…

European counter-plan. Ukraine NATO membership up to NATO; no territorial concessions; ceasefire along contact line; no cap on Ukrainian military; EU membership; reconstruction to be paid by Russia. pic.twitter.com/YBEDLPydFp

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) November 23, 2025

Now he’s seeking to get European leaders to back him up, and they appear to be doing so. This is all a recipe for keeping the endless war going with no end in sight, and the proxy conflict nature of it continues to get dangerously out of hand.

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

On June 1, 2025, 117 quadcopters—total cost under $120,000—flew from hidden launchers inside Russia and crippled 10 strategic bombers across five air bases in a single morning.

Operation Spiderweb, as Ukraine called it.

It was a public demonstration of a new form of conflict: When the price of precision falls far enough, scale becomes inevitable, and scale forces autonomy. That autonomy, in turn, moves the battlefield faster than human minds can reliably follow. We seem to be entering the era of machine-speed warfare.

Quiet Arrival

For decades, militaries and the defense industrial base followed a rule: Better always meant more expensive. A modern fighter costs $100–120 million; its predecessor cost half that. The pattern held from tanks to submarines. Drones broke the pattern. A competent kamikaze drone now costs $400–$1,000 and can reliably kill a $5–10 million tank. A long-range one-way drone costs perhaps $30,000 and can sink a frigate. The cost curve of creating a precision threat has collapsed; the cost of defending against it has not.

Once the economics flip, quantity becomes quality all of its own. Ukraine says it already has the ability to produce drones at a rate of 4 million per year. Russia, Iran, and China are racing to match or surpass those numbers. When you are fielding not dozens but thousands of armed aircraft simultaneously, no human staff can micromanage them. You must delegate.

Delegation quickly becomes autonomy. Collision avoidance, target recognition, route replanning, reaction to jamming—these decisions migrate from human operators to software running on the drone itself. The more drones you have, the less you can afford to keep a human in the loop for every micro-decision. The battlefield begins to run at machine time.

High-Frequency Warfare

The closest civilian analogy is high-frequency trading, where humans merely set strategy, risk limits, and circuit-breakers. After that, algorithms trade at microsecond speeds with no realistic possibility of human intervention. Modern drone swarms are evolving into the military equivalent. Ukraine already retrains its targeting models weekly using fresh combat footage; Russia and China are likely doing the same. An 8 percent improvement in a computer-vision model on Tuesday can translate into battlefield dominance by Thursday.

That speed is terrifying. Machines do not get tired, do not hesitate, and do not ask whether escalation is politically wise. They simply execute. In a noisy, deceptive environment, small errors can compound rapidly. The cost in our case is not just money, but lives.

Control Theory

In a nutshell, the core idea is: a system measures something, decides what that measurement means, and reacts. Then it measures again and adjusts. Take, for example, a thermostat.

Every drone is a feedback control system: measure → decide → act → measure again. The enemy’s entire job is to break that loop—jam the measurement, spoof the decision, or block the action. When hundreds of such loops are running in parallel, all under deliberate attack, the default state is instability unless the loops were deliberately designed to be extraordinarily robust.

This is why purely technological answers are probably insufficient. Advantage also lies in strategy and doctrine—in the rules, restraints, and architectures nations choose to build into their systems from the beginning.

Robust Versus Loose

Not all autonomous systems are created equal. Some states and actors design robust systems: conservative rules of engagement baked into code, multiple verification layers before lethal action, and strong de-escalation biases under uncertainty. Others design loose systems: faster reaction times, higher tolerance for collateral damage, and a willingness to treat ambiguity as an opportunity rather than a red flag.

On current evidence, robust systems are winning the cost-exchange war. Ukraine, fighting with strict rules of engagement and heavy reliance on human oversight, has consistently achieved better loss ratios than Russia despite being vastly outnumbered in almost every traditional category. Restraint, paradoxically, forces greater precision, faster learning cycles, and more effective active defenses—all of which can compound into strategic advantage.

Loose systems look terrifying on paper, but in practice they bleed money, invite sanctions, and generate atrocity footage that fuels the other side’s alliances and recruitment. Every war crime committed by a loose actor is a strategic gift to the robust one.

The Flash-War Risk

Tom Clancy understood the danger of misinterpretation under time pressure. In “The Sum of All Fears” (1991), the plot hinges on a false-flag nuclear attack, masterminded by a third party, designed to make the United States and the Soviet Union blame each other and stumble into war. Today, we do not need a nuclear weapon to create the same cascade. Two hundred spoofed drones launched from a fishing boat, carrying the electronic signature of a great power, could do it in 20 minutes.

The battlefield is already producing miniature versions of this story dozens of times per day: A drone drifts across a sensitive line because of wind or jamming, an opposing swarm interprets it as a probe, automated defenses react, and within seconds both sides have taken irreversible actions that no political leader ordered. By the time a human sees the trend, the adversary’s intent seems to be clear, and escalation unavoidable.

The Real Race

The technological race is real, but it is not the only race. Free countries cannot and should not copy the loose model. But they can build systems that are simultaneously fast, open, and disciplined. That means, for instance:

• treating drones as consumable ammunition, not exquisite platforms

• supporting innovation and startups

• shortening feedback loops to weeks, not decades

• encoding clear, shared rules of engagement into software from day one

• investing heavily in active defenses (lasers, jammers, and cheap interceptors

• creating pre-agreed crisis mechanisms—digital hotlines, shared telemetry standards, forensic rapid-response teams

Ukraine has shown that a motivated society can out-innovate a much larger adversary even when heavily outnumbered. The $800 quadcopter has already rewritten the rules of war. The next question is whether we can rewrite our systems fast enough to win and keep the machines on a leash.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

In Israel there’s talk of the scenario where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can receive a full pardon in his criminal corruption cases if he agrees retires from political life, and on Sunday he addressed this controversial proposal during a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

When asked by a reporter if he will retire in order to obtain the pardon, Netanyahu shot back with a firm “No” – and then said, “They’re very concerned with my future. They want to make sure that – how shall I say this? – They’re concerned with my future.”

“Well, so are the voters, and they’ll decide, obviously, but we have big tasks to do, including with Germany in historic cooperation that will actually, actually will, in many ways, tower over our previous cooperation, which was quite amazing, but that’s not surprising, because, as you can see, Chancellor Merz is a towering figure,” the prime minister added. 

President Trump has tried to intervene in the long-running legal saga, but lately Netanyahu has expressed that he needs more support from Washington.

As Israeli President Herzog considers a pardon – which he’s granted the legal power to do – he has explained to Politico: “Everybody understands that any pre-emptive pardon has to be considered on the merits.” And so he has vowed to “deal with it with utter seriousness.”

“I respect President Trump’s friendship and his opinion … But Israel, naturally, is a sovereign country, and we fully respect the Israeli legal system and its requirements. The well-being of the Israeli people is my first, second and third priority,” Herzog added, in a desire to distance himself from being viewed as under foreign influence.

“They’re very concerned with my future,” Bibi quipped before reporters in Germany…

Netanyahu was asked whether he would retire from political life in exchange for a pardon.

He said no. pic.twitter.com/MqzRJ990ps

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 7, 2025

Back in January, Netanyahu began interrogation sessions connected to a series of cases – all of which he’s asserted his innocence in. For a review:

• Case 1000 concerns allegations that Netanyahu and his wife accepted luxury gifts, such as cigars and champagne, from wealthy businessmen in exchange for political favors.
• Case 2000 involves claims that Netanyahu negotiated with Arnon Mozes, publisher of Yedioth Ahronoth, to secure more favorable press coverage.
• Case 4000 — viewed as the most serious — centers on accusations that Netanyahu provided regulatory and financial benefits to Shaul Elovitch, the former owner of the Walla news site and Bezeq telecommunications, in return for positive media treatment.

Netanyahu has also long faced accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity – but pressure over this has mainly been on the international and European front, related to international criminal court probes.

President Trump has still firmly had his back, and has weighed in vocally in the case, asking Israel to dismiss all charges. At the same time there’s only so much Washington can do, especially at a moment of deep internal turmoil in Israeli domestic politics.

PM Netanyahu formally submitted the pardon request to Herzog on November 30, sparking opposition backlash demanding that the president quickly shoot it down.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin recently proposed providing Europe, the majority of whose countries are part of NATO, with formal guarantees that it won’t attack.

In connection with this, he also assessed that those who fearmonger about Russia are serving the interests of the military-industrial complex and/or trying to bolster their domestic image, which exposed their ulterior motives.

In any case, his proposal could hypothetically lead to a NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact (NRNAP), but only if the political will exists on both sides.

One of Russia’s goals in the special operation is to reform the European security architecture, which the US is newly interested in too as suggested by some of the ideas in its draft Russian-Ukrainian peace deal framework.

All of this follows the Pentagon’s drawdown from Romania, which might precede a larger pullback from Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit one that wouldn’t be total nor lead to abandoning Article 5. Such a move could still alleviate the American aspect of the NATO-Russian security dilemma.

The greater the scale of the US” “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia”, especially if it leads to the redeployment of some forces from Europe, the less likely that NATO’s European members (except the UK) are to saber-rattle against Russia since they’d doubt that the US will rush to their aid if they provoke a conflict. Their newfound sense of relative vulnerability, which is derived from their pathological intertwined hatred and fear of Russia, could then soften them up to a US-mediated NRNAP that they’d otherwise not agree to.

Just as “The US Will Struggle To Get Europe To Abide By Putin’s Demand To Stop Arming Ukraine”, so too might it struggle to get them to abide by whatever it proposes with respect to the new security architecture in Europe that it envisages jointly creating with Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. Nevertheless, the US’ presumably reduced military presence in CEE by that point could facilitate agreements on the status of NATO forces in the Arctic-Baltic, CEE, and the Black Sea-South Caucasus.

This vast region uncoincidentally overlaps with the “cordon sanitaire” that interwar Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski wanted to create via the complementary “Intermarium” (a Polish-led security-centric regional integration bloc) and “Prometheism” (“Balkanizing” the USSR) policies but ultimately failed to achieve.

In today’s context, US support for the revival of Poland’s long-lost Great Power status could see Poland leading Russia’s containment there on the US’ behalf but within strictly agreed-upon confines.

Russian-NATO tensions can still be managed so long as the risk of war in CEE is reduced, which can be achieved by placing limits upon Poland’s militarization and hosting of foreign forces in exchange for Russia withdrawing some or all of its tactical nukes and Oreshniks from Belarus. A fair Polish-Belarusian deal could thus form the core of any NRNAP. Successful mutual de-escalation on this central front is expected to lead to agreements on the peripheral Arctic-Baltic and Black Sea-South Caucasus ones.

The devil is in the details, and some NATO members might either obstruct talks on a US-mediated NRNAP or subvert it afterwards, so nobody should get their hopes up. That said, Russia and the US should set their sights on the end goal of a NRNAP, which could parallel talks on modernizing the New START. This is the most effective way to reform the European security architecture and keep the peace, but a lot will depend on Poland, which plays the most decisive role among all of the US’ NATO allies.

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Historians will look back at the wreckage of a once-great American civilization and not with wonder that tens of millions of people who were entirely dependent upon government welfare payments were nonetheless allowed to vote.

Even to include millions of illiterate 3rd world illiterate aliens who snuck in, then were put on welfare, and were given driver’s licenses and social security numbers, so they could vote in elections to give themselves more welfare. Eventually, the historians will agree that America committed mass collective suicide, because obviously such insane policies could never be contemplated by a rational people.” – Matt Bracken

The United States and many other formerly western white developed world countries have been in the process of committing mass collective societal suicide for the past thirty five years, with a rapid acceleration over the last several years.

The implications are vast, with the ultimate extinguishment of the white race baked into the demographic cake, unless massive changes in immigration policies are implemented and a cultural reversal in attitudes about having children takes hold. Neither seems likely at this point. The chart below paints a dire picture, but it is even worse than it appears.

The chart tells a story of which countries have embraced the mass suicide of their culture and those still resisting. The chart reveals the number of immigrants, but not where they came from and whether they arrived legally. So, Switzerland has the largest number of immigrants and a 66% increase since 1990, but the vast majority are from other European countries, as only 2% of their population are African. Iceland is another similar example, as the number of immigrants since 1990 has increased by a factor of six, but Africans still make up less than 1% of their population.

All you need to do is follow alt-media outlets to understand which countries have purposefully decided to destroy their cultures, economies, and national identity at the behest of globalist billionaires attempting to implement their Great Reset new world order by destroying the social and economic fabric of formerly white countries. Just view video evidence posted daily on the internet to know which countries are circling the drain because they have allowed and encouraged an invasion of low IQ, ignorant, violent, feral, 3rd world dregs to overwhelm their formerly cohesive white nations. Diversity has proven not to be a strength.

Those with the most dramatic transformation (deformation) towards 3rd world shithole status include: Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, Italy and the U.K.

In the case of Ireland it isn’t necessarily the pure number, but the growth of groups who are wreaking havoc. There were approximately 4,000 Muslims in Ireland in 1990. Today there are over 100,000 Muslims (2% of total population) and their growth rate is accelerating. They are highly concentrated in the major cities and account for the large percentage of crime, while consuming an inordinate percentage of welfare outlays. The captured woke Irish politicians allow this demographic to commit murder, while locking up white Irish natives for speaking out against this invasion.

Sweden is the poster child for the mass insanity of a previously homogeneous, safe, white society. There were approximately 50,000 Muslims in Sweden in 1990, less than 1% of the total population. Inexplicably, other than as part of a globalist plot to destroy Sweden, the fostered invasion by Muslim hordes has resulted in 2 million (20% of total population) of these godless savages rampaging through Sweden’s urban areas, raping Swedish girls and siphoning billions in welfare benefits. There are areas within Swedish cities declared no-go-zones, where even the police won’t go. Were the white Swedish people so guilt ridden by their 1st world, happy, homogeneous society, they felt the need to commit harakiri by opening their doors to a population who hate whites and all non-Muslims?

When I spent several days in Belgium in 1990, walking the streets of Brussels was safe and enjoyable. History and magnificent architecture oozed from every crevice. Muslims accounted for 2.7% of the population. Today they account for 8% of the population and white people are afraid to walk the streets. The once glorious culture of Belgium has been degraded, as they plunge towards third world shithole status. It has all been planned, initiated, and executed by the EU/WEF globalist coalition of billionaire psychopaths in suits.

Italy has historically been a very homogeneous nation, with Rome as the center of the Christian world. In 1990, there were less than 150,000 Muslims (less than 1% of total population) living in Italy. Today, after years of boats arriving from Africa with hordes of “refugees”, there are approximately 3 million Muslims representing 5% of the population. That is an invasion worthy of D-Day. These people don’t fit into Italian society, nor do they want to assimilate into Italian society. They stay in enclaves, where whites don’t dare venture. The largest Mosque in Europe is now located in Rome and the pope is a cuck to the Muslim religious fanatics.

Which brings us to our long-time ally – the U.K. The growth of immigrants is up 170% since 1990. Again, this has not occurred naturally or by accident. There has been a coordinated effort to “diversify” the whiteness out of the U.K. And if you point this out publicly, like Tommy Robinson has done, you are arrested and thrown in prison, while the savage Muslims rape your daughters and suck your welfare system dry. The U.K. police thugs crackdown on grannies for social media posts while violent Muslims wreak havoc in the capital and other urban areas. Dozens of native British citizens are thrown in jail daily for “offensive” social media posts.

In 1990, there were approximately 600,000 Muslims, making up a little more than 1% of the U.K. population. Today, they number 4 million, or 6.5% of the U.K. population. They may make up only 6.5% of the population, but do make up over 17% of the prison population. They spread hate and chaos wherever they go. The overthrow of the U.K. by Muslim hordes, promoted by captured co-conspiratorial government officials, and bankrolled by the likes of Soros, Gates, and their fellow WEF billionaire cronies, is well under way and unlikely to be stopped at this point.

Most of these European countries are too far gone to be saved. Their double pronged suicide pact not only includes the implosion of their cultures through importation of low IQ violent savages, but a World War 3 death wish from provoking Putin and depleting their treasuries to supply the most corrupt regime (Ukraine) in world history in a fruitless losing effort meant to distract their populace from their disastrous domestic policies.

The U.S., on the other hand has not crossed the Rubicon yet. Immigrant growth of 65% since 1990 is large, but considerably less than their European counterparts. The worst happened during the dementia basement dummy’s reign of error and terror, as his handlers implemented the Soros/Gates/Schwab Great Reset plan to the best of their ability while Joe took naps and shit his pants.

The U.S. immigration debacle is multi-pronged, with 52 million total immigrants, but an astronomical number of those being illegal invaders. The Muslim problem is large and growing. In 1990, there were approximately 750,000 Muslims in the U.S., constituting about 0.3% of the total population. They now number close to 5 million, or 1.5% of the population.

That doesn’t sound like a lot, but they take over specific areas of our urban enclaves and then gain power by electing themselves into political positions. They spread hate and divisiveness, while committing an inordinate amount of crimes, and gaming/scamming the welfare system. Muslim men who account for less than 1% of the total U.S. population, now account for 9% of all prison inmates.

With Somalis stealing billions from taxpayers in Minnesota, with the blessing of retard Walz and incestuous Omar, in the news for the last few weeks, the question of why Minnesota and other areas of the U.S. have been flooded by these low IQ , deceptive, criminal lowlifes is unanswered. There were only 2,000 Somalis in the U.S. in 1990. Now there are 300,000, with one-third in the Minneapolis area. Why would people from a country with an average temperature of 90 degrees emigrate to a region with winter temperatures averaging 20 degrees?

This invasion was clearly coordinated and planned by the globalists looking to create havoc, disarray, the tearing of the social fabric of a vibrant white culture, and the destruction of community norms which have successfully sustained our society for decades. One must ask themselves, has the increase in 3rd world African shithole country migrants from under 400,000 in 1990 to near 5 million today benefited our country? If these low IQ dregs supposedly increase the vibrancy and diversity of our country, why are the countries they came from still shitholes? Their occupation in our country costs real American taxpayers BILLIONS per year in welfare payments, not to mention the outsized cost of dealing with their rampant criminal behavior.

There is a reason Africa looks the same today as it did a century ago, before the western world poured $2.6 trillion down the shithole drain of 3rd world countries who do not have the  wherewithal or intelligence to improve their own lot.

It’s bad enough for our society with the invasion of Africans/Muslims, but the biggest issue over the last several years was the Biden/Harris coordinated attack on America, with their co-conspirators Soros, Gates, USAID, bought off democrat politicians, globalist funded NGOs, and willing apparatchiks within the government bureaucracy. The border was opened wide, as busses, trains, and air transport dropped 3rd world mutts into our cities across the land. All designed to undermine our once cohesive society.

There are now approximately 27 million Latin Americans roaming our streets, refusing to assimilate, committing crimes, and sucking our welfare system dry. At least 14 million of them are illegal, but the number is probably much higher. They may be illegal, but somehow they vote, get drivers licenses, collect welfare, go to our public schools, commit an outsized proportion of crime, and generally create chaos and havoc in our own democrat run urban shithole cities. The country is already $38 trillion in debt, with another $200 trillion of unfunded welfare liabilities. Our cities and states are also essentially bankrupt, using GAAP accounting. Allowing the country to be overrun by 3rd world rabble is accelerating our societal suicide.

But that is the point, isn’t it. There is no rational explanation for why the U.S. and western European countries would insanely encourage and allow the uninhibited invasion of their nations by 3rd world riff-raff who degrade and diminish the standard of living of their native populations. The level of bribes, payoffs, corruption, and propaganda from feckless legacy media outlets, are at astronomical levels when it comes to promoting and propagating this mass collective societal suicide. The amount of money to initiate and perpetuate this global years long invasion numbers in the hundreds of billions and could only be funded by the likes of Soros, Gates, and their other Davos billionaire cronies.

The goals are demoralization of the white native populations of  western developed nations, the destruction of the economies sustaining the formerly 1st world status of these countries, degradation of the culture through insane woke agendas celebrating abnormality, capture of governments through insertion of political operatives, and indoctrination of the youth within the government school systems and universities with radical communistic beliefs destined to purposefully fail. Their Great Reset/Great Taking plan is real. You will own nothing and not actually be very happy once they are done with you.

None of what is happening is normal or naturally occurring. It’s part of a plan to enslave the world in a digital gulag, where your CBDCs will be doled out according to your subservience and maintaining the proper social credit score, and everything you say, type or do will be monitored 24/7 by the ruling totalitarian oligarchs who have society’s “best interest” at heart. Wait until they pull the plug on the financial system and your 401k is vaporized/ bailed-in to “save” the system. They will own everything and you will own nothing. We are already more than 50% down this path.

If I lived in the UK, this article would get me thrown in jail.

“The real hopeless victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most normal. “Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their lives, that they do not even struggle or suffer or develop symptoms as the neurotic does.” They are normal not in what may be called the absolute sense of the word; they are normal only in relation to a profoundly abnormal society. Their perfect adjustment to that abnormal society is a measure of their mental sickness. These millions of abnormally normal people, living without fuss in a society to which, if they were fully human beings, they ought not to be adjusted.” 

– Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited

The censorship police will be coming to the U.S. next. Their propaganda machine has convinced billions what is happening is normal. But it is profoundly abnormal, as Huxley described seven decades ago. This mass societal suicide in progress is a form of mental illness and I refuse to adjust my mind to this warped abnormal dystopian fantasy world. Time is growing short to stand up against the psychopaths in suits implementing their abnormal agenda. I hope enough of us are up to the challenge.

Authored by Sarah Anderson via PJMedia.com,

You couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried…

The 2026 World Cup has been the talk of the sports – and political – world lately. The United States, Mexico, and Canada will host it, and last week, the presidents of all three countries attended and participated in the draw to determine which teams would play in which groups. 

In the United States, Seattle is one of the host cities, and one of the matches in that city will take place on June 26.

Before the draw, local organizers there determined that the theme for that particular night would be LGBT-etc “Pride Night” to coincide with June being “Pride Month.” Why? Because Seattle’s going to Seattle and insert propaganda into sports, no matter how much it alienates people.   

So now that everything’s finalized and settled, we know who will be paying in that particular match: Egypt and Iran. No, I’m serious.  

In case you’re unfamiliar, Iran follows strict Sharia law, which means that being gay is off the table. You’re a guy who has sex with another guy or a girl who has sex with another girl, and you ended up flogged, in jail, or more likely, facing the death penalty.

And they aren’t afraid to enforce it. 

In 2013, 17 people were arrested and some beaten for attending a “gay birthday party.” In 2022, a 16-year-old “queer activist” was disappeared and murdered by Iranian security officials. A 2014 report found an uptick in officials raiding what they believed to be “gay parties” and forcing those who were arrested to name names of other alphabet mafia folks. In 2020, a gay man was reportedly executed via public hanging. In 2021, two gay men were executed for sodomy. You get the idea.  

Egypt is a bit more liberal in this area, I guess. Its laws as of 2024 do not outright ban homosexuality, but it does use other “criminal” acts like “indecency” and “debauchery” to punish people who participate in intimate same-sex acts with up to three years in prison and a fine. Law enforcement often uses dating apps to hunt people down.

In 2022, school children were taught anti-LGBT awareness to prevent deviant behavior, and the government has demanded that Netflix remove “offensive” homosexual content from its platform. 

Notably, the Pride branding is not a FIFA initiative.

Host cities are permitted to build their own fan experiences around match days, and Seattle’s committee chose to highlight LGBTQ+ inclusion through art installations, community partnerships, and Pride-related programming across the city.

The match will take place on a Friday night during what is not only “Pride Month” across our beautiful, mixed-up country – you know, the month that every store you’ve ever shopped at suddenly adds a rainbow flag and sparkles to their logos in their emails – but also Seattle’s own personal extra gay “Pride Weekend.”

The city has even invited Washington-based LGBT-etc artists to submit their work for display around the stadium. 

A spokesperson for the Seattle Pride Match Advisory Committee says the match will still go as planned. “Soccer has a unique power to unite people across borders, cultures, and beliefs. We are honored to host a Pride Match and to celebrate Pride as part of a global football community,” they said, adding, “This match reflects our ongoing commitment to respect, dignity, and unity for all.” 

Translation: “Ignore the public executions in Tehran. We’re going to distract you with our colorful murals.” 

Oh well, we’ll see what happens in June when 69,000 Seattle progressives take to Lumen Field to wave their rainbow flags and shout their pronouns at men from countries who will literally kill you for sex outside of a heterosexual marriage. 

Illinois sanctuary policies have allowed more than 1,700 criminal illegal aliens to slip back onto the streets since President Trump took office on January 20, and the Department of Homeland Security is now calling out state officials for putting politics ahead of public safety. Among those released are individuals charged with or convicted of homicide, sexual assault, and kidnapping—crimes that should have kept them locked up and handed over to federal immigration authorities.

ICE Director Todd Lyons sent a letter to Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul urging him to honor ICE detainers for over 4,000 criminal illegal aliens currently sitting in state custody. The letter marks the second attempt by federal officials to get cooperation from Illinois—the first, sent in September, was completely ignored. 

The numbers are staggering. According to the Department of Homeland Security, “Illinois’ failure to honor ICE detainers has resulted in the release of 1,768 criminal illegal aliens since January 20. The crimes of these aliens include five homicides, 141 assaults, 23 burglaries, four robberies, 24 dangerous drugs offenses, 15 weapons offenses, and 10 sexual predatory offenses.”

And that’s just the ones who’ve already been let go. The 4,015 criminal illegal aliens still in Illinois custody with active ICE detainers have even grimmer records: 51 homicides, 1,134 assaults, 107 burglaries, 36 robberies, 275 dangerous drug offenses, 120 weapons offenses, and 813 sexual predatory offenses.

BREAKING – It has been revealed that since the beginning of 2025, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has released over 1,700 known criminal aliens who were charged with murder and rape in other countries in an attempt to hide them from ICE detainers. pic.twitter.com/9rsmuOHmYS

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) December 8, 2025

ICE reached out to Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul in September, urging him to work with the agency and honor detainers on criminal illegal aliens, but Raoul’s office ignored the letter

“Gov. Pritzker and his fellow Illinois sanctuary politicians are releasing murderers, pedophiles, and kidnappers back into our neighborhoods and putting American lives at risk,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. “We are calling on Governor Pritzker and his administration to stop this dangerous derangement and commit to honoring the ICE arrest detainers of the more than 4,000 criminal illegal aliens in Illinois’ custody. It is common sense. Criminal illegal aliens should not be released back onto our streets to terrorize more innocent Americans.”

The Department of Homeland Security highlighted several cases of criminal illegal aliens who were released from custody and put back on the streets because of Prtizker’s sanctuary policies. 

Under Governor Pritzker, Illinois’ sanctuary policies have led to the release of some of the most dangerous illegal immigrants, even when ICE had detainers and the offenders clearly threatened public safety: Victor Manuel Mendoza-Garcia, a Mexican national convicted of three counts of aggravated kidnapping for ransom and sentenced to 18 years. Cook County ignored ICE’s detainer, which meant that federal agents had to arrest him after his release. 

Then there’s Juan Morales Martinez of Guatemala, who killed two people in a car crash and was found with ammunition and an extended magazine. Clark County also refused to work with ICE, so federal agents had to wait outside the jail to catch him the moment he walked free. He has since been removed from the country.

Amilcar Waldo Gonzalez-Jimenez, another Mexican national, had convictions for DUI, domestic battery, and multiple counts of criminal sexual assault. ICE’s detainer was ignored, and agents had to track him down on their own. The same story played out with Juan Alberto Caro Marin, convicted of aggravated criminal sexual abuse of a family member. Cook County let him walk despite ICE’s request to hold him.

Jose Manuel Fuentes-Vargas, also from Mexico, had a criminal history including domestic violence and the sexual assault of a child under 13. His detainer wasn’t honored either. Repeat border crosser Leonardo Ignot-Osto had been convicted of theft, child abduction, and had entered the U.S. illegally at least four times. Cook County still released him. ICE eventually found him and removed him.

The list continues with offenders like Jaime Mandujano-Nunez, convicted of predatory criminal sexual assault of a child and sentenced to 17 years. The Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) released him without notifying ICE. Federal agents later located and removed him. Alfonso Batalla Garcia had one of the most alarming records: attempted murder, aggravated sexual assault with bodily harm, and aggravated kidnapping. IDOC freed him anyway, ignoring ICE’s detainer, and ICE had to step in to clean up the mess.

And then there’s Guillermo Garcia-Porcayo, convicted of attempted murder with intent to kill. IDOC released him despite an active detainer. ICE finally apprehended him weeks later and removed him from the country.

These cases represent only a handful of the worst offenders. 

Governor Pritzker is widely viewed as a likely contender for the Democrats’ 2028 nomination, and his sanctuary policies fit neatly with what the party activists want. They want a standard-bearer who treats resistance to President Trump as a defining principle, and Pritzker has been trying to position himself as that champion, even at the expense of the safety of his constituents.