US futures are lower as New Year optimism gives way to jitters about the economy and geopolitics with attention turning to tomorrow’s NFP report. Traders are also trying to make sense of Trump’s latest edicts on defense and corporate landlords, with a vortex of headlines making things feel more unpredictable than usual. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures drop 0.2% with Nasdaq 100 contracts -0.3% with tech names leading declines amid profit-taking on artificial-intelligence trade but off the day’s lows after a report that China is to approve some Nvidia H200 purchases as soon as this quarter. In premarket trading, Mag7 names mixed but net higher as Semis are weaker. Defense stocks are up after Trump demanded a $500 billion boost to annual defense spending. That followed an edict that major defense contractors that work with the government must end stock buybacks and dividends until they invest more in factories and research. Corporate landlords are also in the spotlight after Trump pledged on Wednesday to stop institutional investors buying more homes, with Blackstone closing 5.6% lower. Energy, Industrials, and Staples the leading sectors as the yield curve twists steeper and the USD has a slight bid. Key overnight headlines were that China is looking for new oil sources, and China will approve some NVDA H200 chips.  In commodities, crude is higher while Ags and Precious Metals are sold. Silver investors brace for an annual rebalancing of commodity indexes that could see futures contracts worth billions of dollars sold in the next few days. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and the Challenger Job Cuts report, the latter showing a decline in job cuts as December hiring picks up. US economic calendar includes 3Q preliminary nonfarm productivity, weekly jobless claims and October trade balance (8:30am), wholesale inventories (10am), December NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and November consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Miran (8am and 10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) gains 0.7% as Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades to overweight (Amazon +0.3%, Nvidia +0.4%, Tesla -0.9%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -1.2%). 

• Defense stocks advance, with Northrop Grumman (NOC) up 8% and Lockheed Martin (LMT) rising 7%, after President Trump said he wants to increase the country’s military budget by about 50% to $1.5 trillion in 2027.
• Alcoa (AA) falls 3% after JPMorgan downgrades the stock to underweight, saying the rating cut reflects relative valuation following a period of outperformance. The bank also said it prefers copper over aluminum.
• Globus Medical (GMED) gains 7% after the medical device maker issued a profit forecast for 2026 that beat expectations.
• Helen of Troy (HELE) drops 5% after the consumer products company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) falls 6% after AbbVie says it is not in talks to buy the cancer-drug developer.
• Soho House (SHCO) declines 11% after the members’ club operator said it faces a funding gap tied to the company’s pending sale.

In other corporate news, a regulatory filing revealed that the DOJ is conducting an in-depth review of Paramount Skydance’s hostile tender offer for Warner Bros., while Netflix also said it is engaging with antitrust authorities. JPMorgan is set to replace Goldman Sachs as the partner for Apple’s credit-card business. Revolution Medicines fell in extended trading after AbbVie said it’s not in discussions to acquire the cancer-focused biotech firm. Constellation Brands reported comparable EPS and net sales for the third quarter that beat estimates and reaffirmed its full-year forecast. No major earnings are expected before the market opens.

Sentiment was muted for the second day in a row as the January rally fizzled after soft ADP data left little incentive to add risk before Friday’s payrolls number, while shockwaves from the US raid on Venezuela continue to play out. Gold and silver fell for a second day, with investors bracing for an annual rebalancing of commodity indexes that could see futures contracts worth billions of dollars sold in the next few days (See Silver About To Crash: Why Two Banks Think A Meltdown Looms Next Week).

Defense stocks are up premarket after Trump demanded a $500 billion boost to annual defense spending. That followed an edict that major defense contractors that work with the government must end stock buybacks and dividends until they invest more in factories and research. Corporate landlords are also in the spotlight after Trump pledged on Wednesday to stop institutional investors buying more homes, with Blackstone closing 5.6% lower.

“We see a bit of a profit-taking after a couple of days and I think geopolitical risk remains quite high,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. “The market is now really positioning for the upcoming earnings season.”

Elsewhere in AI, China plans to approve some imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter for select commercial use, according to people familiar. And 2025’s hottest corner of the stock market — memory and storage companies — remains scorching in the new year, but some Wall Street pros are now wondering if a reversal is coming.

The rally in global bonds also stalled, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising two basis points after announced layoffs at US companies dropped to a 17-month low in December. Weekly jobless-claims data will offer further clues on the state of the labor market after earlier figures this week offered mixed signals.

One of Trump’s earlier campaigns, tariffs, are also back in the news, with the US Supreme Court poised to decide the fate of most of the duties as soon as Friday. More than 1,000 corporate entities are now involved, court records show. Even if the Supreme Court declares the tariffs unlawful, the justices are likely to leave the question of refunds to lower courts. 

Meanwhile, corporations and governments in the US, Europe and Asia have borrowed roughly $260 billion across currencies by the close of business on Wednesday, the highest tally on record for the comparable period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A further barrage of bond offerings is poised to push that number higher. At least 23 issuers are expected to price bonds in Europe’s primary market, raising at least €23.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Asia, China announced plans to issue about $75 billion of bonds early this month.

European stocks are also tilting lower: the Stoxx 600 is down 0.3%, weighed down by IT, energy and materials names.Banks outperform, while British food retailers lag on disappointing Christmas trading. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: 

• Soitec shares jump as much as 11% on Thursday after the semiconductor wafer firm named Infineon executive Laurent Rémont as its CEO starting in April.
• BAE Systems shares rise as much as 7%, leading a broad rally in defense shares after President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will request an increase in the US military budget.
• OVH Groupe shares surge as much as 8.2%, the most since April, after the IT services firm reported higher first-quarter revenue compared to last year.
• Implenia shares jump as much as 6.4% and hit a record high after its joint venture with Marti won new rail infrastructure contracts.
• M&S shares gain as much as 3.7%, the most since November, after the UK retailer maintained its full-year guidance despite reporting a slowdown in clothing sales.
• Cerillion shares jump as much as 11%, the most since 2023, after the IT service firm won its largest-ever contract worth ~£42.5 million with Oman Telecommunications.
• Associated British Foods shares drop as much as 12% to a nine-month low after the group warned its profit will be lower than expected this fiscal year due to weaker Primark sales and a mixed performance in its food business.
• Tesco shares slide as much as 6% after Britain’s largest supermarket chain posted softer-than-expected like-for-like growth in its core market over the Christmas period.
• Greggs shares decline as much as 8.2%, the most in five months, as the baker’s trading update for the last three months of 2025 disappoints analysts.
• Shell shares drop as much as 3% in London after the British integrated oil company published a trading update analysts saw as a slight negative.
• Logitech falls as much as 5.4%, to the lowest level in five months, after BNP Paribas downgrades the Swiss firm to neutral from outperform, with its peripherals and gaming-related sales likely to face a hit from hikes in memory pricing.
• Sabic shares fall as much as 4.8% to the lowest level since April 2009 after the petrochemical firm reported non-cash losses from divesting two units.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second day, with weakness in Hong Kong extending and Japanese shares reeling amid the country’s tensions with China.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9%, the most in three weeks, with Tencent, SoftBank and Samsung among the biggest drags. Equities in Japan, Hong Kong and mainland China led the losses, while those in South Korea fluctuated. Hong Kong markets underperformed in the region, weighed down by a lackluster tech sector, with Lenovo sliding on concerns that surging memory prices will squeeze its margin. The mainland market was dragged by a retreat in local brokerage shares. After a strong start to 2026, the weakness in Hong Kong “may just be a breather,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Japanese stocks extended their declines as investors turned cautious amid rising tensions with China. In the latest escalation, Beijing launched an anti‑dumping probe into dichlorosilane, a semiconductor material imported from Japan. Shares of Japanese chipmaking‑materials firms fell, while Chinese companies involved in dichlorosilane jumped.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is a touch higher. Antipodeans lag, with the Aussie dented after cautious comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

In rates, treasuries hold small curve-steepening losses amid deeper selloff in bunds following European government bond supply surge including syndicated sales by Italy and Portugal and conventional offerings by France and Spain. US yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp with curve spreads slightly wider; 10-year near 4.17% is 1.6bp cheaper on the day, German counterpart by an additional 1.5bp. German yields are 1-2bps higher following strong factory orders. US 10-year yield is up 1bp with no follow-through from the early release of Challenger data, with layoffs at a 17-month low. Focal points of US session include jobless claims data and corporate new-issue slate adding to already historic weekly volume.

In commodities, spot gold and silver are down for a second day in a row with respective losses of 0.7% and 3.3%. Spot gold slipped below $4,450 an ounce, after losing nearly 1% in the previous session. Silver dropped below $75 an ounce. Brent crude held above $60 a barrel. WTI crude has continued to climb throughout the European session, higher by 1.5% but still on track for a weekly loss. Prices remain sensitive to updates on Venezuela. Bitcoin is down 1.0%. 

Looking at the day ahead, the US economic calendar includes 3Q preliminary nonfarm productivity, weekly jobless claims and October trade balance (8:30am), wholesale inventories (10am), December NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and November consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Miran (8am and 10am). Micron, Synopsys and News Corp are among companies presenting at the Needham growth conference in New York.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.79
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1208.2
• euro little changed at $1.1677
• WTI crude +0.9% at $56.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The White House is drafting an executive order broadly targeted at addressing Americans’ frustration with the cost of living, including a push to allow people to dip into their retirement and college savings accounts to afford down payments on homes. The draft is also expected to move toward banning large investors from acquiring single-family homes. Politico 
• Trump said our military budget for the year 2027 should not be $1tln, but rather $1.5tln.
• House votes to advance Democrats’ bill to extend expired healthcare subsidies. US bipartisan Senate group believes it is on the verge of a deal, regarding health care and a Obamacare subsidies extension, Punchbowl reports; however, the Hyde language is “now viewed more acutely as an insurmountable problem.”
• Trump signs a Presidential Memorandum directing withdrawal of US from participation in 66 international organisations.
• Punchbowl reported that the State of the Union date of February 24th is firm, which US President Trump will deliver.
• Colombia expects tensions with the US to ease following an hour-long phone call between Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro, a senior Colombian diplomat said. The two presidents will meet at the White House at some point. BBG 
• US officials are said to be working on options for business deals in Greenland, including rare earth minerals mining and hydroelectric power, to step up links to the island. BBG 
• California Governor Gavin Newsom will call for a crackdown on institutional investors buying up homes in the state, targeting private equity and hedge fund investors purchasing homes, particularly corporate entities buying at scale. BBG 
• President Trump and his advisers are planning a sweeping initiative to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favored level of $50 a barrel. WSJ 
• US oil companies want “serious guarantees” from Washington before they make splashy investments in Venezuela as Trump urges them to back his bid to reshape energy markets. FT 
• Following Trump’s approval, The Senate could vote as soon as next week to impose new sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war with Ukraine. Politico 
• China plans to approve limited imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips this quarter, people familiar said. Sales will exclude military and state sectors. Reuters reported that Nvidia is requiring Chinese buyers to make full payment upfront. BBG 
• China said its latest export controls are aimed at the military and won’t affect civilian trade. It sought to reassure Japanese businesses amid concern over supply chains and rare earths. BBG 

Trade/Tariffs

• China is to reportedly approve some NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 purchases as soon as this quarter, according to sources cited by Bloomberg; China to bar H200 from state bodies and critical infrastructure; Beijing is said to allow commercial use of H200 AI chip. Alibaba (BABA) and Bytedance have both reportedly informed NVIDIA that they are interested in ordering in excess of 200k units each of the H200, according to sources.
• India’s Foreign Ministry reportedly intends to remove restrictions on Chinese firms bidding for government contracts, according to sources.
• US President Trump posted “I have just been informed that Venezuela is going to be purchasing ONLY American Made Products, with the money they receive from our new Oil Deal”. Full Post: “I have just been informed that Venezuela is going to be purchasing ONLY American Made Products, with the money they receive from our new Oil Deal. These purchases will include, among other things, American Agricultural Products, and American Made Medicines, Medical Devices, and Equipment to improve Venezuela’s Electric Grid and Energy Facilities. In other words, Venezuela is committing to doing business with the United States of America as their principal partner – A wise choice, and a very good thing for the people of Venezuela, and the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”.

Central Banks

• BoJ’s Nagoya region branch manager said US trade policy is having negative impact in the region, but is not dealing a severe blow to region’s economy. Some firms in the region see China’s export curb as potentially having an impact on their businesses.
• BoJ maintains its assessment on all Japan’s 9 regions in its quarterly regional report.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Nov 2025 vs Oct 2025): median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median inflation expectations for the next 12 months, for three years ahead and for five years ahead. 1-year: 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). 3-year: 2.5% (prev. 2.5%). 5-year: 2.2% (prev. 2.2%).
• ECB’s de Guindos said the ECB is at inflation target, but uncertainty remains very high.
• BoE DMP (Dec): 1yr ahead CPI expectations maintained at 3.4%; 3yr ahead maintained at 2.9%. Wage Growth1yr ahead: 3.7% (prev. 3.8%).
• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said likely seen the last rate cut in the cycle and the likelihood of near term rate cuts is very low, also noted November CPI data was helpful, but largely as expected, according to ABC interview.
• SNB Minutes: Governing Board confirmed that it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary; Board will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy if necessary.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mostly negative following a similar handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and DJIA pulled back from record highs. ASX 200 traded marginally higher as strength in health care, tech, consumer stocks, energy and financials, offset the losses in mining and materials, with mild tailwinds seen amid a softer yield environment in Australia. Nikkei 225 extended its decline beneath the 52,000 level amid soft wages data from Japan and further frictions with China after MOFCOM yesterday announced an anti-dumping probe into Japan’s dichlorosilane imports, which is a key chipmaking chemical, while Japan protested China’s operation of mobile drilling rigs in waters on the Chinese side of the Japan-China median line in the East China Sea. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded negative with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid tech-related weakness and with some early pressure seen in China’s OpenAI rival Knowledge Atlas Technology a.k.a. Zhipu, during its Hong Kong debut. The mainland eventually gave up the modest gains that were seen as the PBoC conducted a CNY 1.1tln outright reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.

Top Asian News

• China’s Ambassador rejects Japan’s export controls negotiations.
• PBoC announced on Wednesday it will conduct a CNY 1.1tln outright reverse repo operation on Thursday to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) Q1 (JPY): Revenue 1.03tln (prev. 0.895tln), PBT 226.7bln (prev. 196.6bln), Net 147.5bln (prev. 131.9bln).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are mostly lower, following the negative tone seen in APAC trade. The DAX 40 (U/C) did initially buck the negative mood, with upside facilitated by strength in Rheinmetall (+3%) after President Trump called for a 50% increase in US defence spending by 2027. European sectors have opened mostly in the red. Leading sectors are Banks (+0.4%), Insurance (+0.2%) and Food Beverage & Tobacco (+0.2%). The banking sector has been underpinned by gains in BNP Paribas (+2.0%) after the Co. said that the judge’s decision to certify the verdict in Sudan clears the path for the bank to pursue an appeal, otherwise newsflow has been light for the other outperforming sectors. To the downside, Basic Resources is weighed on by downside across underlying metals.

Top European News

• EU plans to pursue a special rulebook for corporates outside national law, which would create a voluntary ‘28th regime’ for companies to operate across EU, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat/incrementally firmer and trades above its 100 DMA within a fairly narrow 98.67 to 98.82 range; further upside for the Dollar could see the test of its 200 DMA at 98.87, the round 99.00 mark and then the 50 DMA at 99.08. G10s are mixed against the Dollar, with some underperformance in the Antipodeans which have been weighed on by the risk-tone and pressure in the metals complex.
• Really not much driving things for the Dollar this morning, but with some focus on an early release of the US Challenger Layoffs (Dec), which fell to 35.55k (prev. 71.3k). The inner report highlighted that “while December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans”. A constructive picture for the labour market, which follows on from a rebound in the ADP in the prior session (albeit that printed shy of expectations). Ahead, a couple more labour market metrics in the form of jobless claims and RevelioLabs Employment data.
• EUR is also flat and currently at the lower end of a narrow 1.1668-1.1682 range. A strong German Factory Orders print had little impact on the single currency this morning. Focus has been on regional geopolitics in the past couple of days; on one front, positive mood music out of Ukraine with President Zelenskiy suggesting that the war could end in H1’26. Elsewhere, Trump’s continued verbal assault on Greenland will keep NATO and allies on their toes.

Fixed Income

• A contained start for fixed benchmarks with newsflow somewhat light early doors aside from ongoing digestion of updates regarding Venezuela. But have gradually slipped from best levels as the morning progressed.
• USTs got to a 112-21 peak, firmer by three ticks, and Bunds to a 128.15 high with gains of 10 ticks at most early doors. Thereafter, the benchmarks began to gradually trim as the risk tone lifted off lows into the morning, with assistance coming via reporting regarding NVIDIA. For USTs, an early release of December’s Challenger Jobs series spurred no move, headline printed at 35.55k (prev. 71.3k).
• Supply this morning came from Spain (fine, but softer than is usually the case) and France (strong overall), but neither outing spurred any significant move.
• Gilts opened near-enough unchanged just above 92.00 before extending to 92.16 and then falling to a 91.88 low, in-fitting with action in peers. No move to the latest DMP survey.
• Spain sold EUR 6.28bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.70% 2030, 3.00% 2033, 3.45% 2043 Bono & EUR 0.726bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono. EUR 2.8bln 2.70% 2030: b/c 2.21x (prev. 1.97x); average yield 2.51% (prev. 2.471%). EUR 2.01bln 3.00% 2033: b/c 2.08x (prev. 2.34x); average yield 2.94% (prev. 2.88%). EUR 1.46bln 3.45% 2043: b/c 1.87x; average yield 3.8%. 1.15% 2036 I/L: b/c 1.9x (prev. 2.63x); yield 1.51% (prev. 1.469%).
• France sold EUR 13.5bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 3.50% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 3.60% 2042 & 3.75% 2056 OAT. 3.50% 2035: b/c 1.98x (prev. 2.147x); average yield 3.53% (prev. 3.43%). 0.50% 2040: b/c 2.37x (prev. 2.272x); average yield 3.95% (prev. 3.898%). 3.60% 2042: b/c 2.12x (prev. 2.922x); average yield 4.05% (prev. 3.92%). 3.75% 2056: b/c 3.4x; average yield 4.46%.
• Japan sold JPY 524.9bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.14x (prev. 4.04x), and average yield 3.447% (prev. 3.427%). Lowest accepted price 99.15 vs prev. 96.55. Average accepted price 99.30 vs prev. 96.64. Tail in price 0.15 vs prev. 0.09.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent front-month futures post mild upside as the contracts rebound after two consecutive sessions of losses and after the US’ effective seizure of Venezuela’s crude, which promises more barrels in the market and a likely move away from Canadian oil for the US. WTI Feb resides in a USD 55.97-56.51/bbl range whilst Brent Mar sits in a USD 59.96-60.48/bbl band.
• Nat Gas, meanwhile, is on a firmer footing once again after Dutch TTF settled over 2.5% higher, albeit off best levels, with traders citing the current cold snap across some of Europe. ING suggests that EU gas storage is now 58% full vs a 5-year average of 72%.
• Spot gold resides closer to the bottom end of a USD 4,415.40-4,466.48/oz range, but is still holding onto a long-term upward trend.
• Base metals succumb to the modestly firmer dollar and overall weaker risk, with 3M LME copper dipping back under USD 13k/t before finding some support at USD 12,687/t. Newsflow overall remains light, but traders are also cognizant of the SCOTUS update tomorrow, which could provide a ruling on President Trump’s Liberation Day and some targeted tariffs (possible, not guaranteed).
• HSBC forecasts gold to hit USD 5000/oz in H1’26 due to geopolitical risk and increasing fiscal debt; High volatility trading level likely.
• ICE plans 22-hour trade for European and UK gas and power by February 23rd.
• US President Trump’s team works up a sweeping plan to control Venezuelan oil for years to come, while Trump believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favoured level of USD 50/bbl, according to WSJ.
• US oil companies warn they will need guarantees to invest in Venezuela, according to FT.
• Chevron is in talks with US government to expand Venezuela license and seeks authorisation to supply Venezuelan oil to other buyers, according to industry sources. US government also wants other US companies involved in oil exports from Venezuela.
• US Vice President Vance said Venezuela can only sell its oil if it serves US national interests, and the way we control Venezuela is to control the purse strings.

Geopolitics – Ukraine

• US VP Vance said seized oil tanker was a fake Russian tanker, while he stated the US had a legitimate indictment for Maduro and that President Trump will make a determination on Greenland.
• US Republican Senator Graham said after meeting Wednesday with US President Trump, that he has greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, while Graham looks forward to a vote as early as next week.

Geopolitics – Middle East

• Israel considers Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah ‘totally insufficient’, Sky News Arabia reports
• Iranian Foreign Minister said “We are ready for any situation and we do not want war, but we are ready for it and we are also ready to negotiate”, Al Jazeera reported. “We are ready to negotiate with the United States on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interests”.

Geopolitics – Other

• US President Trump said the US would be extracting Venezuelan oil for years; “the oil will take a while in Venezuela”; said US oversight of Venezuela could last for years.
• US President Trump’s administration draws up new legal justification for Maduro operation with DoJ’s opinion expected to say that it was lawful because it was part of a law enforcement action, according to WSJ.
• US VP Vance said seized oil tanker was a fake Russian tanker, while he stated the US had a legitimate indictment for Maduro and that President Trump will make a determination on Greenland.
• China hacked email systems of US Congressional Committee staff with Beijing intelligence said to have used Salt Typhoon to access communications used by top panels in US Congress, while the intrusions were detected in December, FT reported.
• US President Trump comments it was a great honour to speak with Colombia’s President, who called to explain the situation of drugs and other disagreements that we have had, Trump said he appreciates his call and tone and looks forward to meeting him. Full post: “It was a Great Honor to speak with the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, who called to explain the situation of drugs and other disagreements that we have had. I appreciated his call and tone, and look forward to meeting him in the near future. Arrangements are being made between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Foreign Minister of Colombia. The meeting will take place in the White House in Washington, D.C.”.
• US Republican Senator Graham said after meeting Wednesday with US President Trump, that he has greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, while Graham looks forward to a vote as early as next week.
• UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump this evening and set out his position on Greenland.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 5%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30 am: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. -0.09%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: Jan 3 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212.44k, prior 199k
• 8:30 am: Dec 27 Continuing Claims, est. 1900k, prior 1866k
• 8:30 am: Oct Trade Balance, est. -58.65b, prior -52.8b
• 10:00 am: Oct F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
• 3:00 pm: Nov Consumer Credit, est. 10.08b, prior 9.18b
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks in Athens

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While geopolitical headlines stayed on the front page over the past 24 hours, market attention shifted towards domestic US policy late in yesterday’s session as President Trump’s social media posts dragged on shares of homebuilders and defence companies. That led the S&P 500 (-0.34%) to pull back after reaching new intra-day record highs. Sovereign bonds had a decent session thanks to soft European inflation and further oil price declines, with Brent crude (-1.22%) falling to below $60/bbl, though Treasuries underperformed as another strong batch of US data added to optimism on the 2026 outlook.

In the first of Trump’s posts that triggered a turn in market sentiment, the President said he was “immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes”, which weighed on various real estate-related stocks. Blackstone fell as much as -9% intra-day before closing -5.57% lower, while the capital goods industry group in the S&P was down -2.27%. Trump’s other target was the defence sector. He posted that “I will not permit Dividends or Stock Buybacks for Defense Companies” unless they invest more in production and maintenance and issued a related executive order later on. Defence contractors including Northrop Grumman (-5.50%), Lockheed Martin (-4.82%) and RTX (-2.45%) slid on the news. However, there were potentially better news for defence firms after the close, with Trump demanding a boost in the 2027 US defence budget from $1trn to $1.5trn. It is $901bn in the current 2026 fiscal year. 

The renewed policy risks left the S&P 500 -0.34% lower by the close. The move would have been considerably worse were it not for outperformance by the Magnificent 7 (+0.24%), as the equal-weighted S&P (-1.15%) had its worst day since November. In Europe, stocks had a mixed session, with a new record for the DAX (+0.92%) limiting losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.05%), with the FTSE 100 (-0.74%) leading on the downside.

The sell-off has mostly extended into Asia with the Hang Seng (-1.27%), Nikkei (-1.16%), and the CSI (-0.58%) lower. However, the KOSPI (+0.72%) is defying the negative trend, continuing its upward trajectory as demand for semiconductor stocks continues. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.28%) is also experiencing slight gains on dovish central bank speak (details below). S&P 500 (-0.20%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.31%) futures are both lower again. 

Early morning data indicated that Japan’s real wages fell by -2.8% year-on-year in November, worsening from October’s revised decline of -0.8% and marking the 11th consecutive monthly decrease, with the weakest result recorded since late 2023. Nominal wages exhibited a similar trend, with total cash earnings increasing by only +0.5% year-on-year (compared to +2.3% expected), representing the slowest growth rate since December 2021. 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have decreased by -3.4bps, trading at 2.08% as I write. 

Meanwhile, Australian government bonds are rallying hard, with 10-year bond yields decreasing by -9.0bps to trade at 4.67%. The policy-sensitive 3-year bonds are trading -8.4bps lower at 4.07%. This follows comments from RBA’s Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who expressed what is being interpreted as a dovish stance by indicating that the central bank is adopting a one- to two-year perspective on inflation instead of responding to individual data releases.

In term of yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the ISM services index for December, which hit a 14-month high of 54.4 (vs. 52.2 expected). So reassuring investors that the economy had ended the year in a strong position, particularly after the ISM manufacturing index hit a 14-month low earlier in the week. Indeed, the details were very strong as well, as the new orders component hit a 15-month high of 57.9, and the employment component hit a 10-month high of 53.9.

Other indicators also suggested that the US labour market was still in decent shape. We had the ADP print ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, which showed that private payrolls grew broadly as expected at +41k in December (vs. +50k expected). Then we had the JOLTS report for November, with layoffs down to a 6-month low of 1.687m, whilst the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their roles moved up to 2.0%. So overall, the print was seen as a sign of labour market strength, even as openings themselves dipped by more than expected to 7.146m (vs. 7.648m expected).

In the meantime, markets continued to face crosswinds from various geopolitical issues. One major development yesterday was that the US had seized a Russian-flagged ship in the Atlantic for violating US sanctions. Shortly afterwards, Defense Secretary Hegseth posted that “The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT — anywhere in the world.” It was also announced that another tanker had been seized in the Caribbean Sea. At the same time, US plans for Venezuelan crude continued to take shape, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying that the US plans to indefinitely control sales of Venezuelan oil. Brent crude fell -1.22% to $59.96/bbl, only a dollar above its post-2021 low reached in mid-December. Overnight it’s back up around half a percent.

Yesterday’s oil decline supported sovereign bonds, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.15%, although the 2yr yield (+0.8bps) held up as investors priced in a bit more Fed hawkishness given the US data. 10yr yields are down another -1.2bps this morning. 

In Europe, bonds were also boosted by the latest European inflation numbers. Those showed that Euro Area inflation fell to +2.0% as expected in December, whilst core CPI was down to +2.3% (vs. +2.4% expected). So that pushed back against residual fears about a hawkish ECB pivot this year and added to the sense that the ECB might cut next rather than hike. Yields on 10yr bunds (-3.0bps), OATs (-3.1bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all moved lower. Meanwhile, UK gilts saw a particularly big outperformance, with the 10yr yield down -6.5bps, whilst the 2yr yield fell to its lowest since August 2024, at 3.67%. 

Finishing up with another round of geopolitical news, Trump also posted fresh comments about NATO yesterday, saying that “We will always be there for NATO, even if they won’t be there for us”, which followed a statement from several European leaders on Tuesday defending Greenland’s sovereignty. In an interview with Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said Trump is willing to “go as far as he has to” on Greenland.  Elsewhere, the dispute between China and Japan continued to escalate, with China starting an anti-dumping probe into dichlorosilane, which is used to make chips. That comes on top of a previous announcement this week from China, which bans the export of dual-use items to Japan that could have military uses. All the headlines notwithstanding, gold prices (-0.85%) yesterday fell back for the first time this year, suggesting that investor fears are easing back a little on the geopolitical side.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area unemployment rate and German factory orders for November, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, the ECB will release their Consumer Expectations Survey for November.

It didn’t take long. Within hours of an ICE-involved shooting in the Minneapolis area, the Democratic Party’s protest industrial complex moved into action, quickly creating conditions for coordinated demonstrations across multiple cities. The rapid response suggested these nonprofit activist networks were on standby, waiting for a catalytic event, as an army of radicals intensified pressure campaigns against federal agents, blocking streets, harassing officers, and openly doxxing them.

I want every ICE officer to know that their president, vice president, and the entire administration stands behind them.

To the radicals assaulting them, doxxing them, and threatening them: congratulations, we’re going to work even harder to enforce the law.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) January 8, 2026

Shortly after the ICE-involved shooting that left one woman dead, multiple videos of the incident went viral on X. In at least one video, she appears to be blocking the street with her vehicle in an attempt to impede ICE agents and is later shot and killed after advancing toward one of the agents. Numerous angles of the incident are circulating on X, offering competing narratives.

video shows ICE shooting in Minneapolis. pic.twitter.com/7E2GPAFfly

— Suhr Majesty (@ULTRA_MAJESTY) January 7, 2026

The Democratic Party’s propaganda machine, desperately searching for the next narrative after the optically displeasing Somali-linked daycare fraud scandal, was quick to deploy a new storyline.

As we noted hours before protest activity erupted in the Minneapolis area (read here), the left-wing nonprofit Minnesota Immigrant Rights Action Committee functioned as a rapid-response mobilization hub, coordinating a coalition of left-wing activist groups to flood the streets by late evening.

Footage of the demonstrations:

Anti ICE protesters are attacking innocents in vehicles.

This is exactly what @GovTimWalz and @Jacob_Frey asked for………buckle up.pic.twitter.com/Y2fPQ9VpCH

— Spitfire (@RealSpitfire) January 8, 2026

HOLY SH*T 🚨 Anti ICE Protestors are now waving FOREIGN FLAGS while chanting “F*CK ICE”

If you don’t want to be in this country

GET THE F*CK OUT pic.twitter.com/DZqJFypNe7

— MAGA Voice (@MAGAVoice) January 8, 2026

Anti ICE protest happening now in Foley Square after Minneapolis shooting. pic.twitter.com/oOZK4mV5nw

— Marla Diamond (@MDiamond8) January 7, 2026

The rapid response extended beyond Minnesota. In New York, Party for Socialism and Liberation New York City, reportedly funded by China-based far-left billionaire Neville Roy Singham, mobilized activists within hours.

EXPOSED 🚨 The protest tonight in New York City against ICE is being paid for and organized by ‘PSL New York City – Party for Socialism and Liberation’

They are funded by Neville Roy Singham who lives in China and works with the CCP

He donated over $20 million to entities like… pic.twitter.com/Fy508FFbqn

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) January 8, 2026

About 1500-1000 anti ice protesters now marching around federal plaza. pic.twitter.com/GYMLcaW9Rk

— Ali (@MerruX) January 8, 2026

🚨BREAKING: NYC PROTESTORS CALL TO “TOPPLE THE TRUMP REGIME.”

Notice the yellow signs we’ve seen at every protest? pic.twitter.com/61HJltNiW3

— Nick Jacobs (@nickjacobs03) January 8, 2026

Communist Jackson Hinkle appeared enthusiastic about what appeared to be multi-city coordinated protests.

BREAKING: Tonight, cities across the country erupted in protest against ICEpic.twitter.com/CngPJd6AfE

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) January 8, 2026

In Seattle:

🚨 Breaking — Antifa and leftist protesters are on the march in Seattle, chanting “Death to ICE!” pic.twitter.com/dQSBf5z4QN

— Katie Daviscourt 📸 (@KatieDaviscourt) January 8, 2026

Looking ahead, the socialists are planning pro-Maduro protests in the US, funded by PSL. 

The Trump Administration has kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and started a blatantly criminal war against Venezuela.

Take action with DSA! ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/3DHbts9UOO

— DSA (@DemSocialists) January 7, 2026

Democrats appear prime for a George Floyd 2.0 moment.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In response to decades of corporate-poisoned nutrition advice, the Trump administration has unleashed updated federal dietary guidelines that torch added sugars, champion protein and healthy fats, and slam the door on ultra-processed junk fueling America’s chronic disease crisis.

The MAHA triumph, spearheaded by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, flips the outdated food pyramid on its head—prioritizing real, nutrient-dense foods over the seed oil slop and pharma-dependent scams pushed at the expense of Americans’ health for far too long.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt kicked off the briefing with a clear message of reform. “To build on this progress the Trump administration is now updating federal nutrition standards and guidelines to insure that Americans have the most accurate data driven information supported by science and hard facts not special interests or partisan ideology,” she stated.

Another win for MAHA.

Karoline Leavitt opened her White House briefing by announcing that the Trump administration will update and release new dietary guidelines for America

A clear push to ensure Americans have science-backed, unbiased guidance…free from politics and special… pic.twitter.com/KcSI9pXWHr

— Overton (@overton_news) January 7, 2026

Leavitt highlighted President Trump’s directive. “President Trump has tasked two of the great individuals behind me, USDA Secretary Rollins and HHS Secretary Kennedy with collaborating on this vitaly important project.”

She continued, “Today they are here to officially unveil the 2025 to 2030 dietary guidelines for America.” Adding, “These new guidelines are informed by the best and most reliable research on health and nutrition.”

The move directly targets the epidemic of obesity and metabolic disorders plaguing the nation, ending subsidies for low-quality foods in schools, military bases, VA facilities, and federal programs. The new guidelines end the era of processed junk in schools, military bases, and federal food programs, promising REAL food and real results.

Eat Real Food! America’s new dietary guidelines were just released. See more here: https://t.co/0VNZUgT7aV pic.twitter.com/N3KY7LJ3Fu

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) January 7, 2026

Secretary Kennedy was forthright in framing this as a historic overhaul. He announced the guidelines as “the most significant reset of federal nutrition policy in history,” emphasizing, “These guidelines replace corporate-driven assumptions with common sense goals and Gold Standard scientific integrity.”

Kennedy zeroed in on the true villains. “Added sugars…drive metabolic disease. Today, our government declares WAR on added sugar!” he proclaimed, adding that his core directive is to “eat real food.”

.@SecKennedy says the release of the new federal nutrition guidelines is “the most significant reset of federal nutrition policy in history.”

“These guidelines replace corporate-driven assumptions with common sense goals and Gold Standard scientific integrity.” https://t.co/H6AFcSGGsz pic.twitter.com/nMMsjfQPfL

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 7, 2026

This echoes the administration’s broader push to combat faulty past policies. “Faulty dietary guidelines have stacked the deck against families, which has fueled the chronic disease epidemic,” Kennedy noted. “This failed approach ENDS TODAY.” He added that following these guidelines means “Americans will be saving thousands of dollars” on healthcare costs.

The new framework urges Americans to prioritize high-quality protein, healthy fats, fruits, vegetables, and whole grains while avoiding highly processed, sugary, or salty packaged foods. As detailed in the official HHS fact sheet, the guidance calls to “avoid highly processed packaged, prepared, ready-to-eat, or other foods that are salty or sweet” and “avoid sugar-” laden items, easing restrictions on red meat and saturated fats in a direct rebuke to decades of misguided low-fat dogma.

USDA Secretary Rollins called out the systemic rot. “For decades, under both Republicans and Democrats, federal incentives have promoted low quality, highly-processed foods, and pharmaceutical interventions instead of prevention. As a result, nutrient-dense, whole foods, grown by America’s farmers have been increasingly displaced,” she said, adding “The Trump Administration is acutely aware of this danger, and today, this announcement is making a major step in doing something about it.”

.@SecRollins: “For decades, under both Republicans and Democrats, federal incentives have promoted low quality, highly-processed foods, and pharmaceutical interventions instead of prevention. As a result, nutrient-dense, whole foods, grown by America’s farmers have been… https://t.co/H6AFcSGGsz pic.twitter.com/bla120GO8N

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 7, 2026

This reset also aligns with the America First ethos, redirecting focus to homegrown, wholesome options that bolster farmers and cut reliance on global supply chains riddled with contaminants.

This development builds directly on Kennedy’s 2026 MAHA agenda, outlined last month, which promised GRAS reform to scrub untested additives, front-of-pack labeling for transparency, and a ban on petroleum-based food dyes linked to hyperactivity and other ills.

Despite a federal judge temporarily halting a similar state-level dye ban in West Virginia over vague language, the Trump team’s federal push charges ahead undeterred—exposing how activist judges often shield Big Food’s toxic empire.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Spanish police have arrested 15 international bus drivers in Barcelona, accused of transporting illegal migrants between France and Spain in exchange for cash, exploiting their access to regular cross-border routes, according to reports by El País.

The Spanish National Police said the drivers used their positions on international services, particularly the Paris–Barcelona route, to bring “undocumented or visa-less foreigners into the country in exchange for money,” describing the scheme as “a new type of illicit human trafficking in the international land transport sector,” as reported by Le Parisien.

Migrants paid between €20 and €400 to travel without identity documents, without a valid ticket, or using tickets issued in someone else’s name, and bus drivers received payment to turn a blind eye.

According to the police statement, the drivers coordinated with intermediaries operating in bus stations and outside transport companies, who arranged payments and ensured migrants were allowed to board vehicles. Those arrested are being prosecuted on charges of aiding and abetting illegal immigration.

The investigation began in March 2025 and uncovered a network involving not only drivers but also auxiliary staff linked to private transport companies. Police said those involved “took advantage of their access to European routes” to facilitate the irregular movement of migrants between Spain and France, earning some drivers as much as €50,000 per year.

Investigators also identified recruiters operating outside transport companies who negotiated payments with drivers and helped migrants board buses using false, manipulated, or no documents at all.

The operation was carried out in cooperation with French authorities, with police checks conducted in La Jonquera, Irún, Madrid, Barcelona, and Murcia.

The dispersal across Europe of migrants residing in Catalonia will be cause for concern to many, in light of recent reports detailing no-go zones for police officers in the region.

In September last year, Torelló, a town in the Osona region of Catalonia, faced growing insecurity after a leaked recording revealed local police officers acknowledging they are unable to control violent migrant groups gathering in certain areas, and have been laughed at and forced to retreat from dispatch calls.

The audio, verified by authorities and reported by ElCaso.cat, captured an officer telling a resident that police cannot act against migrant rioters due to insufficient resources.

“They are laughing at us,” the officer said in the call. “They are throwing us out. If we don’t want to get hurt, we too [must leave],” he added, describing how officers had to withdraw after being met with hostility.

While net migration to Spain and its islands was down last year, according to Frontex, huge numbers have already crossed and are now contributing to integration concerns. Despite numbers being down, Spain’s socialist government remains committed to importing newcomers.

In September, it began the gradual transfer of more than 600 Moroccan minors from the North African enclave of Ceuta to different regions on the mainland.

The decision has reignited debate in Madrid over how to manage unaccompanied minors entering the country, as new figures revealed just 41 of the nearly 30,000 minor arrivals since 2018 have been repatriated.

With an increase in internal illegal migration routes within the European Union itself, keeping tabs on new arrivals will become increasingly more problematic.

Read more here…

The Trump administration withdrew the United States from 66 international organizations, conventions, and treaties that it said go against the country’s interests, the White House announced on Jan. 7.

According to the presidential memorandum, 31 entities were tied to the United Nations, while 35 others were not.

“The Trump Administration has found these institutions to be redundant in their scope, mismanaged, unnecessary, wasteful, poorly run, captured by the interests of actors advancing their own agendas contrary to our own, or a threat to our nation’s sovereignty, freedoms, and general prosperity,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote in a statement shortly after the list was revealed.

“President [Donald] Trump is clear: It is no longer acceptable to be sending these institutions the blood, sweat, and treasure of the American people, with little to nothing to show for it. The days of billions of dollars in taxpayer money flowing to foreign interests at the expense of our people are over.”

As Jacki Thrapp reports for The Epoch Times,The State Department was ordered to review the international intergovernmental organizations that “no longer serve American interests” in February 2025, per an executive order ​signed by President Donald Trump.

Rubio accused many entities of being “often dominated by progressive ideology and detached from national interests.”

“From DEI mandates to ‘gender equity’ campaigns to climate orthodoxy, many international organizations now serve a globalist project rooted in the discredited fantasy of the ‘End of History.’

“These organizations actively seek to constrain American sovereignty. Their work is advanced by the same elite networks—the multilateral ‘NGO-plex’—that we have begun dismantling through the closure of [the United States Agency for International Development].”

The U.N.-related entities that the Trump administration withdrew from include the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, International Law Commission, International Trade Centre, Peacebuilding Commission, Peacebuilding Fund, U.N. Democracy Fund, U.N. Energy, U.N. Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women, and U.N. University.

The non-U.N. organizations included the 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy Compact and the Commission for Environmental Cooperation.

The memorandum cited over two dozen “hybrid threats,” such as the Forum of European National Highway Research Laboratories and the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund.

Wednesday’s memorandum came less than a year after Trump withdrew the United States from the UN Human Rights Council.

On Feb. 4, 2025, the same day the White House assigned Rubio to investigate the international organizations, Trump signed an executive order exiting from the U.N. Human Rights Council. At the time, Trump said it “has not fulfilled its purpose and continues to be used as a protective body for countries committing horrific human rights violations.”

The White House expanded on those issues, such as allowing China and Iran to be in the council despite their violations, and alleged there was bias against Israel.

Authored by Sean Tseng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. forces stormed into Venezuela before dawn on Jan. 3 and captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a lightning operation that punched in and out of Caracas before its air defenses could mount an effective response.

The operation resulted in no U.S. fatalities and no loss of U.S. military equipment, U.S. officials said.

The U.S. mission—code-named Operation Absolute Resolve—has quickly become more than a political shockwave. Analysts have said it was also a real-world test of U.S. military power against a country that has spent years buying Chinese- and Russian-made air-defense systems and showcasing them as proof that it could deter Washington.

The raid raised uncomfortable questions for Beijing about the limits of the Chinese-supplied systems that Venezuela has leaned on—especially “anti-stealth” radar that China advertised as capable of spotting and stopping U.S. stealth aircraft, a military analyst said.

The analyst told The Epoch Times that the most damaging takeaway for China isn’t the failure of a single piece of equipment—it’s what the operation suggested about deeper weaknesses: corruption in China’s defense industry and lack of reliability of the technology and command structure meant to tie those systems together.

“A system built to look modern on paper and intimidating in propaganda falls apart under the demands of real combat,” said Yu Tsung-chi, a retired major general from Taiwan and former president of the Political Warfare College at Taiwan’s National Defense University.

He said Beijing’s performance claims often lean more on messaging than combat validation.

China condemned the capture of Maduro and accused Washington of acting as a “world judge,” in a blunt response that underscored how closely Beijing saw the fallout tied to its influence and credibility in Latin America.

Operation Measured in Hours

President Donald Trump ordered the operation at 10:46 p.m. ET on Jan. 2, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said.

Aircraft launched from about 20 land and sea bases across the Western Hemisphere, and the helicopter force approached Venezuela at roughly 100 feet above the water to maintain the element of surprise.

Within five hours, by 3:29 a.m. ET, U.S. forces had Maduro and Flores aboard the USS Iwo Jima, an amphibious assault ship. They were then flown to the United States.

U.S. officials said the operation involved more than 150 aircraft along with integrated electronic attack and nonkinetic effects from U.S. Cyber Command, Space Command, and other assets to suppress Venezuelan defenses and clear a path for the helicopters.

Briefings described a layered effects approach: bombers, fighters, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, electronic warfare jets, and drones overhead; space and cyber support to disrupt Venezuelan systems; and strikes intended to dismantle and disable air defenses as helicopters closed on Caracas.

According to officials, aircraft used in the operation included B-1B bombers, F-22 Raptors, F-35 Lightning II fighters, EA-18G Growler electronic attack jets, E-2 Hawkeye early warning aircraft, and numerous drones alongside transport and helicopter assets.

China’s Systems

For years, Venezuela has spent heavily on Chinese and Russian equipment while claiming that it was building one of the region’s most modern defense systems.

In recent months, reports have highlighted Venezuela’s installation of Chinese-made JY-27A radar units, marketed as able to detect “low-observable” aircraft—exactly the kind of system meant to complicate U.S. operations involving stealth platforms.

That promise did not hold on Jan. 3.

Yu said neither Chinese nor Russian air-defense systems “made the slightest bit of difference” once the United States brought real-time intelligence, electronic warfare, and precision weapons to bear.

The real contest, he said, wasn’t just radar range or missile specs, but a fast chain of detection, communications, decision-making, and joint execution—exactly where weaker militaries tend to break.

Beyond radar, Venezuela has also displayed and fielded Chinese-made ground systems that Beijing has marketed abroad—from VN-16 amphibious assault vehicles and VN-18 infantry fighting vehicles to Chinese rocket artillery systems.

Venezuelan parades in recent years have showcased those platforms as symbols of a growing partnership and a tougher military posture.

But Yu said glossy displays don’t matter much if the wider network—sensors, communications, command, training, and logistics—can’t hold up under pressure.

Parades Versus Combat Reality

Yu said the U.S. raid on Caracas exposed the limits of China’s propaganda-first military culture—one that rewards polished demonstrations more than hard, repeated combat validation.

He said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has not fought a major war since 1979, and it studies foreign conflicts in part because it lacks large-scale, recent battlefield feedback of its own.

“You can look perfectly aligned and advanced on a parade ground,” Yu said, “but without real combat to back it up, it’s all just stage effects.”

Read the rest here…

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that Hungary would not leave the European Union, which instead would “fall apart on its own” due to “leadership chaos” and said Brussels aimed to cut Hungary off from Russian energy supplies during a press conference on Monday. 

As EuroNews reports, Orbán rejected the possibility of Hungary leaving the EU, saying the country lacked the size to make such a decision sensible. However, he stressed Hungary’s future lay within the bloc and NATO but with “a sovereign foreign policy and economic policy”. He said: “EU membership is an important opportunity, but if we were to get stuck in this single bloc, we would drink the juice. It makes sense to have the best possible relations with all blocs, including America, Russia, China, the Arab world and the Turkish world.”

Orbán has clashed repeatedly with Brussels over rule of law concerns, blocked EU support to Ukraine and maintained ties with Moscow despite all his European peers blacklisting Putin. In return, the EU has withheld billions of euros in funding for what it claims is “democratic backsliding” in Hungary.

On energy policy, Orbán said Brussels aimed to cut Hungary off from Russian oil and gas supplies. He said the government was defending itself through legal action against the European Commission while politically opposing EU regulations, hoping sanctions would be lifted by 2027, when the war ends.

Hungary has secured exemptions from EU sanctions on Russian energy and remains heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.

Orbán said US President Donald Trump’s seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro marked a new era in international politics, claiming the operation could allow the US to control up to half the world’s oil reserves.

He told reporters that 2025 had been “a very eventful year” and Trump’s inauguration “gave the coup de grace” to what he called the “liberal world order”. He said the new era is “the era of nations” and described himself as a harbinger of this shift since 2010.

On Venezuela, Orbán said the US military operation represented “a powerful manifestation of the new world”.

“Together with Venezuela, the United States can control 40-50% of the world’s oil reserves, a force capable of significantly influencing the price of energy on the world market.” He added that this could benefit Hungary by creating cheaper global energy prices.

Orbán has cultivated close ties with Trump and is one of the few European leaders to openly support the US military action in Venezuela, which most EU member states have criticised as violating international law.

Orbán said Hungary would not provide financial support to Ukraine, stating, “We have money if we don’t give it to others, so we are not giving our money to Ukraine.”

“We are not giving them a loan either, because everyone knows that the Ukrainians will not pay it back,” he added.

Hungary has been the primary obstacle to EU military and financial support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, forcing the 27-member bloc to find workarounds to bypass Budapest’s vetoes.

On migration, Orbán said Hungary would not accept Brussels dictating “who we should live with”, rejecting an EU regulation due in June requiring member states to admit 350 people and process over 20,000 applications.

Hungary has refused to participate in EU asylum schemes and built border fences to keep out migrants, leading to ongoing legal battles and trading barbs with Brussels.

Asked about a reported financial agreement with Trump, Orbán confirmed: “I asked for it, we agreed that there would be one.”

Trump denied Orbán’s previous claims about such an agreement, telling Politico in November: “I didn’t promise him anything like that, but he asked me very much.”

Meanwhile, the Hungarian PM said details of the “defense shield” were still being worked out, adding Hungary has needed “some kind of protective shield” since World War I and “cannot rely on Brussels”.

Orbán said he would not debate Tisza party leader Péter Magyar in the April elections, claiming he could only debate with “sovereign people” and that “those who have masters abroad are not sovereign”. He said his ruling party, Fidesz, aimed to repeat its 2022 election result.

Magyar and his party have surged in polls and pose the most substantial electoral challenge to Orbán’s rule in two and a half decades. Orbán has governed Hungary since 2010 and is the EU’s longest-serving leader among the current heads of state.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) sees the German economy in a prolonged phase of deindustrialization. Together with the Federation of German Industries (BDI), the chamber reiterates calls for far-reaching reforms to boost growth and investment. Yet both associations still shy away from touching the golden calf of the green transformation.

Germany’s economic crisis continues into the new year without interruption. A survey conducted by the DIHK among 23,000 member companies found that only one in six firms expects an economic upswing in 2026.

Twenty-five percent of companies are planning further job cuts, and only one third intend to make growth investments. For DIHK President Helena Melnikov, the situation is dramatic. If policymakers fail to act decisively, Germany faces a further massive loss of value creation and jobs, Melnikov warns. As before, the DIHK locates the core of the economic decline in German industry. According to chamber calculations, the sector has shed around 400,000 jobs since 2019.

This weighs particularly heavily because these positions are typically well-paid and highly skilled. Their value creation reverberates throughout Germany’s economic structure—among industry-related services, regional trade, and ultimately public finances.

As a result, municipal treasurers in industrial crisis hubs are increasingly confronted with insoluble challenges amid growing budget deficits. In cities such as Stuttgart, Erlangen, Wolfsburg, and elsewhere, business tax revenues are now visibly shrinking.

Reality Denied

Existing reforms are failing to reach companies, Melnikov warns, pointing to high labor and energy costs. The BDI likewise called 2026 a “year of reforms” in comments to Reuters.

All of this is correct. And yet the question remains why leading figures of German business still lack the courage to openly criticize government policy and finally bury the visibly failed project of greening German society.

We are witnessing a monumental failure of the economic elite—if it can even still be called that. The deindustrialization diagnosed by Melnikov is simply denied by large parts of the mainstream press as well as by policymakers. And yet the numbers speak clearly.

It is not yet fully clear how large capital outflows were last year. In 2024, net direct investment outflows amounted to €64.5 billion; in 2023 they exceeded €100 billion. Previous years were likewise marked by sustained capital flight.

Those who can are heading for the exits—fleeing green regulatory policy, high fiscal burdens, and the economic devastation inflicted on companies by Germany’s energy transition.

Calls for sweeping reductions in bureaucracy also naturally feature on the list of location weaknesses. A perennial political evergreen—and a hollow demand in light of the massively increased pace of state intervention. The state will have to create tens of thousands of new public-sector jobs, at its development banks such as KfW and the state banks, in order to weave the flood of cheap credit into the arteries of the economy.

On massive state intervention, business prefers to remain silent. Companies take what they can get. There is no talk of criticizing market distortions or the systematic crowding-out of the private sector from capital markets by the state.

For the current year, the DIHK expects officially reported GDP growth of 0.7 percent. However, this figure includes net new public borrowing—including special funds—of around 5.5 percent, with a state share exceeding 50 percent of GDP. The private sector, by contrast, is likely to shrink by roughly four percent.

Political room for maneuver is narrowing. Flight to the capital markets appears to be the last remaining way to buy time and maintain the illusion of social and economic stability through ever new subsidy programs.

Location Patriotism Meets Reality

And before the first patriotic crocodile tears are shed: every plant manager, CEO, capital-rich fund, individual investor, and family office will have carefully weighed its judgment on the destructive political framework conditions in Germany and the EU—and will not turn away from the location without reason.

Insisting on location patriotism, after decades of deliberate erosion of patriotic sentiment, German traditions, and culture by the political apparatus and its associated media empire, is at best infantilizing—more bluntly put: cynical.

Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his finance minister Lars Klingbeil, for their part, have not hesitated in the past to play the patriotism card more or less openly when it came to the accelerating departure of German companies.

In October, Klingbeil, in a display of helplessness, publicly called on business at the IGBC trade union congress in Hanover to commit to the location and safeguard jobs.

A cheap media stunt, as Klingbeil is fully aware that energy-intensive production can no longer be defended at the German location, and that the policy of green transformation deliberately and systematically pushes industrial production abroad—or increasingly into insolvency.

The narrative of a lack of loyalty to the location is now firmly established. It shows that politics has already identified its scapegoats—entrepreneurs and investors who are to be publicly blamed for the country’s economic decline. They are henceforth portrayed as irresponsible profiteers abandoning employees, society, and the community in the pursuit of supposed profit maximization.

The depth of the ongoing recession and the now unmistakable deindustrialization of the country make it increasingly likely, week by week, that a point of no return—an economic tipping point—has already been crossed.

German society is therefore left with essentially two options. Either it falls for the rhetorical tricks of the central planners around Friedrich Merz and Lars Klingbeil, accepts further nationalization and the construction of centrally planned artificial economies such as a war economy or a leaden eco-industry. Or it eventually broadens its horizon, returns to the principles of the free market economy, and accepts the social pain that any genuine transformation for the better must necessarily entail at the outset.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The nonprofit New Opportunities, Inc. used $2.8 million in taxpayer funds meant for low-income families’ heating bills on its own operating expenses, according to the Connecticut Office of Policy and Management.

In a Dec. 22 letter obtained by CT Insider, CT Mirror and more, OPM Secretary Joshua Wojcik claims New Opportunities admitted to “impermissibly” using grant funds “to provide fiscal support for other organizational operations.”

Key facts: New Opportunities was founded in 1964 and now helps administer Connecticut’s federally funded Energy Assistance Program, which helps families earning 60% or less of the state median income pay their heating bills over the winter. 

The federal Administration for Children and Families, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, gives grant funding to Connecticut, which in turn sends it to nonprofits like New Opportunities. The nonprofits then pay energy companies to deliver oil, natural gas or another heat source to low-income families.

According to Wojcik’s letter, New Opportunities recently sent three checks worth $2.8 million to the energy company Eversource to pay for natural gas. The checks bounced when Eversource tried to cash them because New Opportunities had already used the grant money for unrelated expenses, and there were not enough funds left in its account. That is a violation of state and federal contracting rules, according to CT Mirror.

New Opportunities later paid Eversource $1.2 million of the balance, but $1.6 million was still missing as of Dec. 22.

Connecticut’s Department of Social Services barred New Opportunities from the Energy Assistance Program in the towns of Waterbury, Meriden and Torrington, CT Mirror reported. Wojcick also plans to appoint a representative to oversee all of New Opportunities’ spending and fire any board member who fails to “ensure that State or Federal funding was used for their intended purposes,” according to his letter.

Background: New Opportunities is almost entirely taxpayer-funded. It received $38.8 million in government grants in fiscal year 2024 from Connecticut, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and more, but only $995,000 from private grants and $1,700 from fundraising events, according to its most recent 990 tax form.

The nonprofit operated at a deficit of $1.6 million that year, according to an independent audit reviewed by the CT Mirror, which found there is “substantial doubt” about the nonprofit’s ability to remain solvent. 

President and CEO William Rybczyk still collected a $267,000 salary, part of over $12 million spent on payroll and benefits, the 990 form shows. Former President James Gatling, who retired in 2021, still earned over $100,000 in fiscal year 2024. 

Office expenses cost $480,000, and employee travel cost $427,000. The nonprofit runs food production and early childhood education programs in addition to its energy assistance program.

In fiscal year 2025, the nonprofit accepted $26.4 million from the State of Connecticut, according to records obtained by Open the Books.

Summary: The federal government has already approved $3.7 billion for Energy Assistance Programs around the country in 2026. As always, it’s vital that the government tracks every penny to ensure it reaches the families it’s intended for.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com