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Farage Crushes Clacton By-Election With 63% As Comedy Candidates Dominate Longest Ballot In British History

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Farage Crushes Clacton By-Election With 63% As Comedy Candidates Dominate Longest Ballot In British History

Nigel Farage has romped to victory in the Clacton by-election with 63.3% of the vote, seeing off 33 rivals including Count Binface, who won a quarter of the votes cast, on the longest ballot paper in British electoral history.

The Reform UK leader secured victory with 22,239 votes, which was 63.3% of the total vote and an increase on the 21,225 votes he secured when he was elected to the Essex seat at the 2024 General Election.

Count Binface, a comedian standing as a 5,900-year-old space warrior whose key policy was to freeze the price of ice cream in Clacton at 99p, was second with 9,455 votes, 26.9% of the total vote.

Mr Farage had triggered the poll and cast it as a ‘people vs the Establishment’ contest amid mounting questions over a £5 million donation from cryptocurrency tycoon Christopher Harborne.

However, a parliamentary inquiry into Mr Harborne’s donation has yet to conclude, and Mr Farage could still face another by-election within months if he is found to have broken House of Commons rules. He is expected to be interviewed by a standards watchdog within weeks of MPs returning to Westminster after their summer break.

The Reform leader, 62, declared himself the winner of the Clacton by-election in the early hours of Friday morning while ballot papers were still being counted. He then took the unprecedented step of skipping the formal result declaration, with his party claiming police had advised him to stay away due to a ‘credible threat’.

But, as Mark Angelides reports for LibertyNation.com, none of the big parties fielding a contender, what remains is who wins the narrative war.

Farage Stands Down to Step Up

The election was triggered by Farage resigning his seat last month. He did so voluntarily because of mounting stories over his financial situation, including donations and gifts he had received before running for Parliament. His argument was that it should be the voters of Clacton who decide his political fate rather than a scrutiny committee.

To be abundantly clear, Mr. Farage receiving a gift of £5 million is not illegal. Not declaring it is a breach of protocol because it occurred within 12 months of him running for office. With his return to the House of Commons, the internal investigation will continue. But what is the likely outcome? And what punishment – if any – is likely to befall the veteran campaigner?

If he is found to have broken the rules, the committee could suspend him from the House for a short period. In such a case, there is a possibility of a recall petition that would trigger a fresh by-election – which poses a conundrum. The purpose of such a contest would be to determine whether his Clacton constituency still had faith in him to be its Member of Parliament. This question was put to bed yesterday with Farage increasing his vote count and share compared with the 2024 general election.

And crucially, Nigel will have spent the last six weeks in his constituency gathering data. If he ends up having to fight yet another election, he will have up-to-date major information which other parties do not have access to. When it comes to campaigning, the data advantage cannot be underestimated.

But, as ever, the knives are out for Nigel Farage.

Establishment Closes Ranks

Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, before his ousting, described Farage’s Reform Party as a threat to the nation. This is echoed across the myriad parties that make up British Parliament. In other recent by-elections, we have seen parties run what can best be described as paper candidates to unite around any party other than Reform.

The dominant narrative from the more established party leaders is that although they refused to stand a candidate in this “stunt” election triggered by Farage, they would certainly stand one in the potential next contest after the results of the scrutiny committee are released. But it is more than reasonable to argue that the other parties did engage in yesterday’s election. Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch posted on social media that voters should support “the Bin,” a reference to a parody candidate, “Count Binface,” who wears a trashcan on his head and a shiny “spacesuit.” By tacitly backing any competitor – even a joke contender – the party essentially threw its hat in the ring. Notably, Count Binface came second with almost 27%.

A Political Parallel

The current mantra is that Nigel Farage has triggered an unnecessary election that has cost taxpayers roughly £250,000 and was an affront to voters. And yet the same voices uttered no such displeasure when now-PM Andy Burnham was the beneficiary of a palace coup through a similar mechanism earlier this year.

With around 24,000 votes from one of the Labour Party’s safest seats, Mr. Burnham was drafted into Parliament and installed as leader and PM without a general election or even a vote by the party members. For those who do not support Labour, there is the mild stench of hypocrisy.

Both politicians foisted a by-election on the British public to better secure their positions. One did so to retain his position, the other to gain advancement.

Where is Reform Now?

Mr. Farage’s Reform Party has dominated polling for the last 18 months. While Mr. Burnham’s Labour Party has received a polling bounce of around 6% – quite a typical bump when a leader is changed mid-Parliament – almost every survey has suggested Reform would be the largest party at the next general election.

Farage is a threat to the Westminster establishment that has not been seen in at least 100 years. Assuming he navigates the committee’s results and commits no major faux pas in the next three years, he may well be Prime Minister. And more so, he may be the harbinger of doom for the Conservative Party and relegate Labour to a desultory second-place finish.

It seems no wonder that the Westminster establishment wants to end his career as early as possible.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 08:45

World Cup Hangover Triggers Retail Sales Slump In July, K-Shaped Economy Waning

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World Cup Hangover Triggers Retail Sales Slump In July, K-Shaped Economy Waning

Based on BofA’s almost omniscient analysts, traders should expect a big disappointment this morning from US retail sales as the bank’s data showed a huge drop in online retail (card not present) in July…

…because Prime Day and related promotions were pulled forward from July to June this year. Many other retail categories also saw m/m declines, including clothing, gas (due to lower prices) and furniture. Other factors driving the weakness in July likely included the heat wave around July 4 weekend and a modest post-World-Cup hangover effect.

And once again, BofA was right… US Retail Sales plunged 0.6% MoM in July (+0.1% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since May 2025. This drop slowed the annual rise in retail sales to +5.0% YoY (still solid)…

Interestingly, unadjusted retail sales rose in July…

Both headline and core sales growth slowed YoY…

Most importantly, the ‘Control Group’ – which plugs directly into GDP calculation – dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically worse than the +0.3% MoM rise expected).

Additionally, UBS noted that a key risk to the July data was fading support from larger tax refunds compliments of the OBBBA and that could be part of the disappointment today.

Under the hood, it was very mixed. A drop in gasoline station spending makes sense as gas prices dropped (before re-accelerating in August)…

But, the decline in online (non-store) retailer sales stands out…

This was the second biggest MoM drop Nonstore Retailers sales since COVID (likely due to the calendar shift form Prime Day as mentioned above)…

Real retail sales – admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI – remains positive, but slowed significantly in July…

Finally, the The latest BofA data provides additional evidence that K-shaped dynamics are waning. In each of the four weeks ending Aug 1, y/y total BAC card spending growth was stronger among lower- than higher-income HHs.

And this isn’t just due to higher gas prices. Even in discretionary categories, the “K” has turned into a “C” over the last couple of months: lower-income spending looks solid, while higher-income spending has cooled off modestly.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 08:38

Russia Quickly Rejects Ukraine’s Offer Of Ceasefire On Black Sea Shipping

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Russia Quickly Rejects Ukraine’s Offer Of Ceasefire On Black Sea Shipping

Ukraine has quietly floated a deal through a third-party mediator to halt reciprocal strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, Reuters reports, in what appears to be a calculated bid to unfreeze a critical global commodity corridor and to relieve pressure on Ukraine’s battered wartime economy.

The maritime artery remains a vital economic lifeline for both nations, channeling massive volumes of grain and agricultural supplies to world markets – especially the Middle East and Africa – but there’s now been weekly and almost daily tit-for-tat attacks. 

via Reuters

With roughly 90% of Ukrainian grain and sunflower shipments departing from the primary port cluster of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenne, the fallout on Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been severe.

Kyiv Post cites that as a result grain exports have fallen 76% year-on-year so far in August. But the publication notes that the pressure is longer one-sided, as “on Wednesday, Ukraine launched a major coordinated strike on Novorossiysk, Russia’s key Black Sea naval and grain-export hub, forcing all three grain terminals to suspend operations and hitting naval infrastructure.”

It didn’t take long on Friday for the Kremlin to dismiss the idea of a Black Sea ceasefire, blaming Ukrainian acts of “terrorism” against maritime traffic. ​Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused charged Kiev with “brazen acts of ​terrorism” against shipping.

“We view these attacks (by Ukraine) as a deliberate policy aimed at destabilizing ​civilian shipping in the Black Sea region to further escalate tensions and ​prolong the conflict, all with the blatant acquiescence of regional neighbours,” Zakharova said.

“At the same time, we see no signs of improvement in the situation and, consequently, ​no grounds for half-measures that merely grant the Kyiv regime a temporary ​breathing space,” she added.

Part of this grinding war of attrition if for each side to impose as much economic pain as possible, and Ukraine will be more easily squeezed by blocking its ability to export and import – given its key ports are all concentrated along its Black Sea coast.

Russian forces had hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS wrote recently based on official defense ministry data.

Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew. It has accused Ukraine of seeking to hide military shipments under the guise of civilian cargo transit.

Russia’s reaction is somewhat expected, given it has long voiced that it has no interest in short-term ceasefires which could only allow Ukraine forces to rearm and regroup; instead, it will only settle for a lasting and permanent political solution at end to the conflict.

Of course, in Moscow’s view this means official recognition of the seized eastern territories and Crimea as Russian sovereign land. President Putin himself has made clear that he will not stop the ‘special military operation’ until at least this is fully accomplished.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 08:20

Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

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Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet 0.0%, Apple 0.0%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%)

  • Dronemakers including AeroVironment (AVAV) are higher after the Trump administration said it is applying a 100% tariff on imports of unmanned aircraft systems and their components. AeroVironment shares are up 3%.
  • Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) rises 8% after Jefferies started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with a buy rating, citing the firm’s growth profile.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) falls 5% after the semiconductor capital equipment company’s estimate-topping forecast met with tepid investor reaction following the stock’s frenetic rally this year.
  • ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 14% after the company pushed back the timeline for the biotech to reach cash-flow breakeven to the end of 2027. The firm’s management previously expected to reach that mark by the middle of 2027.
  • Capricor (CAPR) surges 100% after the drug developer said it plans to amend its biologics license application for its drug to treat a rare muscle disease and that the FDA has indicated it is willing to review this amendment. The news spurred an upgrade at Cantor.
  • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) falls 6% after the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins reported a wider-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the second quarter amid crypto trading declines.
  • Globant (GLOB) falls 11% after the IT-services company cut its full-year forecast. It also gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than the analyst consensus estimate.
  • Nubank (NU) gains 10% after the Brazilian fintech reported second-quarter net income that beat the average analyst estimate and saw its 15 to 90-day non-performing loan ratio improve.
  • Reddit (RDDT) jumps 10% as the social media company is set to join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Aug. 18.
  • Sandisk (SNDK) rises 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 14% rally, as JPMorgan assigns an overweight rating following the firm’s investor day.
  • York Space (YSS) is down 17% after the space and defense company cut the revenue outlook for the full year.

Tech shares again lifted the S&P 500 to fresh highs this month as investors piled into beaten-down semiconductor and other AI-related stocks, with second-quarter earnings exceeding already lofty expectations. After a benign consumer inflation print and producer price data this week, US retail sales numbers on Friday could provide more clues on the direction of Fed policy ahead of next month’s meeting, although according to real-time BofA card spending data, expect a big miss when the data is released at 8:30am.

And speaking of Bank of America, its CIO Michael Hartnett said the “door wide open for bulls to rip risk higher.” He cites soaring earnings, a $10 trillion wealth surge in 2026 and over $1 trillion of AI capex expected in 2027. But most notably he says AI is now so big it is the market, and policymakers simply can not allow stocks to fall as it will spark an economic crash. 

Elsewhere, the chip bubble is baaaaack: South Korea’s Kospi Index – a bellwether for retail and momentum euhoria in chip names – added over 2% Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both advanced more than 15% over the past five days.

“A huge amount of hyperscaler money is flowing into hardware,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “That is translating into extremely strong sales and profit growth for hardware companies. Investors are returning to the idea of, ‘let’s look at the earnings themselves again.’”

Meanwhile, the threat of lofty energy prices reigniting inflation remains. Brent crude jumped almost 2% on Friday, before reversing the move to trade around $87 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran and a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of the country’s ports. 

European shares hover near record highs with continued support from the artificial intelligence trade and after the region’s equity funds notched their largest inflows in six months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as software and IT stocks rally, boosted by a report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. HelloFresh falls to a record low after a downgrade at Barclays. Here are the biggest movers:

  • European software and IT stocks post broad-based gains on Friday, with sentiment boosted by a Reuters report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. SAP, Dassault Systemes and Nemetschek are among gainers.
  • Maersk shares gain as much as 6.5% after an upgrade to hold from sell. The shipping company appears to have scope for a further guidance upgrade, and “ample room” for share buybacks over 2027-28.
  • Aviva shares rise slightly, briefly reaching their highest level since May 2018, after the insurer’s first-half operating profit exceeded estimates. Analysts note the beat was supported by reserve releases, tempering the market reaction.
  • Autostore shares extend a post-earnings rally after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cites multiple consecutive quarters of improving momentum, stronger customer engagement and a growing backlog at the warehouse automation firm.
  • DFDS shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since 2008, after the shipping and logistics firm raised its revenue growth outlook for the year.
  • Talanx shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in over a year, after the insurer’s second-quarter net income came in comfortably ahead of estimates and supported a lift to its guidance for the full year.
  • Napatech shares rally as much as 25%, the most in over three months, after the Danish company that provides Programmable Network Interface Cards used in data centers said it has secured a follow-on production order related to a major AI-infrastructure design win secured in 2025.
  • Cohort shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most since early July, after the electronic and surveillance technology solutions company announces that its German unit ELAC was awarded a contract to supply integrated sonar systems for the Polish Orka submarine program in collaboration with Saab.
  • VZ Holding shares jump as much as 10% after the provider of investment advisory services beat expectations in the first half.
  • HelloFresh shares fall to a record low as Barclays downgrades to underweight and assigns a Street-low price target, saying questions remain about the meal kit provider’s top line.
  • EnergieKontor shares plummet as much as 18% and hit their lowest level since 2020 after the wind-energy producercut its earnings goal after markets closed yesterday, just hours after reaffirming its guidance.
  • GB Group shares fall as much as 27%, their steepest drop since 2009, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

Asian stocks rose, poised for their best week in two months, as the AI tech rally regains momentum on fading concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% Friday, extending its weekly gain to about 3%. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi gained for a fifth-straight session, its longest streak since mid-June, while Japanese equities also advanced. Indonesian stocks gained after an address to the nation by President Prabowo Subianto before its budget. After last month’s volatile selloff, the AI trade is getting back on track following the latest corporate results. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan are set for their biggest weekly foreign inflow in months, a sign that global investors are returning after a historic selloff.  “Once traders start searching for yield again, they tend to gravitate back toward that AI and tech picture,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Bloomberg TV. “I think that the US earnings season went some way into dispelling some of the fears that were building up about valuations and sustainability of operating margins.” Elsewhere, Hang Seng had its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks. Vietnam fell most in Asia on financial concerns. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is on course for its largest decline since last week’s payrolls miss. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5%, also helped by higher oil prices. The kiwi is also at top of the leaderboard after underperforming on Thursday. USD/JPY edges down toward 159. European stocks are little changed while futures are pointing to a fairly flat open on Wall Street.

In rates, long-end Treasuries hold losses in early US session, with yields higher by around 1-2bp and extending this week’s curve-steepening move amid similar price action in European bond markets. The US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter century on Thursday, underscoring the premium investors are demanding to finance the nation’s deficits. US 10-year yield near 4.65% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 2.5bp and 2bp; WTI crude futures are up about 0.5%, off session highs. With front-end and belly yields edging lower, US 2s10s spread widens nearly 2bp to 52bp, widest since May 21 and near 200-DMA which has broadly held since March; 5s30s spread is more than 2bp wider near 92bp, last seen May 14. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 3 bps each. IG credit new-issue slate empty so far. Three companies sold a combined $5.85 billion on Thursday, paying about 11bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.6 times oversubscribed. Start of next week has the potential to be relatively active.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance as talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue to show limited progress. Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to around $87.60 a barrel and that’s hampered bonds.

US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS
  • The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG
  • Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS
  • China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ
  • Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG
  • The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS
  • Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG
  • Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT
  • OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG
  • Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028.
  • US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, as softer PPI data further added to the case for the Fed to refrain from hiking rates in September. Nonetheless, the positive momentum began to wane overnight with little fresh major catalysts and after US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components. ASX 200 was pressured as the strength in tech was overshadowed by losses in the heavy industries, including miners, materials, resources and industrials, while participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 gained and briefly reclaimed the 69,000 level before paring some of the advances, while participants continue to second-guess whether the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate increases. KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum, but is off earlier highs with resistance at the 7,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases including from SMIC and JD.com, with the latter pressured despite beating on the top and bottom lines, while sentiment was also not helped by trade-related frictions with the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on drones, which seems to be aimed at China and DJI, which holds around an 80% share of the global drone market.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC keeps 7-day reverse repo operation volume at zero, while it injects CNY 349bln via overnight reverse repos.
  • Taiwan raises 2026 GDP forecast to +11.05% (prev. +9.64%).
  • Hong Kong revises 2026 GDP forecast to 3.5-4.5% (prev. 2.5-3.5%).

European bourses are broadly softer across the board, outside of the DAX 40 given the gains in SAP (see more below). Over in Asia, memory chip names (Kioxia +3.8%, SK Hynix +3.3%) climbed in Asia-Pac trade after Sandisk gave a positive outlook at its investor day. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028-30 and also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Sectors are mixed. Tech is the sector outperformer, followed by Media and Insurance. To the downside is Utilities, while Basic Resources and Health Care also underperform.

Top European News

  • Reform UK leader Farage won the Clacton by-election with 22,293 votes.

FX

  • DXY gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 99.70 base, despite higher energy prices (Brent +1.5%), which are typically constructive for the USD. Weakness in the Buck likely comes as participants digest the July series of data, which contained dovish components. CPI/PPI were in-line and soft, respectively, while the payrolls figure will likely give food for Fed doves. Today, USD is set to digest US Retail Sales and the UoM survey.
  • USD/JPY -0.2% and continues choppy action, this time after another BoJ source said the Bank was set to raise interest rates as soon as September; this saw the pair slip 17 pips to a 159.15 base, a level which is being tested at the time of writing. Currently, markets assign a c. 80% probability of such action in September. More pertinently, Bloomberg sources on Thursday said the Takaichi government is said to support faster BoJ rate hikes. The piece also said the bank could raise rates in either September or October; the timing of the latest source potentially the reason why this JPY strength has stuck.
  • Kiwi is rebounding vs the USD after losses following Thursday’s soft inflation expectations survey; action which has entirely faded with the pair ~0.2% higher than pre-data. NZD/USD +0.4%, once again above all significant DMAs.
  • NOK is the G10 outperformer, strength which is likely a function of oil prices despite the Norges Bank hold on Thursday raising questions over the removal of the tightening bias from the statement in September. Brent Oct’26 is firmer by 1.5%, after rising throughout the EU morning without a clear catalyst. NOK/SEK sees continues support above 1.00, while USD/NOK broke out of recent ranges

Fixed Income

  • USTs continue to fall further from Thursday’s peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket.
  • Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common’s Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations.
  • Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.
  • Australia sells AUD 1bln November 2032 bonds, b/c 3.75, avg. yield 4.6868%.

Commodities

  • Crude futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite the lack of a clear driver. Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, this morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen. Furthermore, UKMTO says a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly following comments by ADNOC stating that two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
  • There have also been a couple of headlines regarding Russia/Ukraine/NATO: NATO HQ confirmed allied jets were scrambled after a drone entered Latvian airspace. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible.
  • WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures have been edging higher since European players entered the market. Brent trades towards the top end of a USD 86.20-88.60/bbl range at the time of writing whilst WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 80.71-82.99/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer by almost 2% intraday and north of EUR 61.50/MWh.
  • Metals are flat/mixed amid a lack of drivers and in what is seemingly a summer lull. Spot gold resides towards the middle of a USD 4,322-4,363/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s 4,343/oz low. Spot silver ekes mild gains and resides towards the top end of a USD 63.51-64.73/oz range after briefly falling under yesterday’s USD 64.22/oz low. 3M LME copper remains above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,045.20- 14,125.28/t range.
  • US VP Vance said goal one is to keep oil and gasoline affordable for the US.
  • China’s State Planner said domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be cut by CNY 230/T and CNY 220/T, respectively; effective on August 14.
  • Ukrainian official said if a ceasefire is implemented in the Black Sea region, Ukraine could restore grain exports through its seaports within one month.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components, which imposes 100% tariffs on certain-sized drones and a 25% tariff on smaller-sized drones. 10% tariffs will be imposed on drones from the UK and 15% tariffs on drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. Tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing, while for components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing.
  • Australian PM Albanese said he spoke with US President Trump and reviewed advancements under the AUKUS defence agreement, while he added that the AUKUS initiative continues full steam ahead. Albanese said he raised the issue of tariffs with Trump and urged him to consider full exemption, while he added that Trump would consider Australia’s request.
  • Brazil began analysing the reciprocity process on US tariffs, while it was notifying the US about the process and requesting that diplomatic consultations be held.

Central Banks

  • Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said they have been getting a little bit better readings on inflation, which he hopes will continue and noted that a lot of inflation drivers were from tariffs, oil and things they hope to be one-time increases. Furthermore, he stated that if they can get some of that into the rearview mirror, they can get inflation heading back to 2%, and that the US economy is steady.
  • The BoJ is reportedly set to raise interest rates as soon as September and also considering accelerating subsequent hikes, according to reports.
  • RBA’s Harper will depart from the monetary policy board, and Melinda Cilento has been named as a part-time member of the RBA board.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • US VP Vance said the US has a lot of tools at its disposal for Iran.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its bank accounts and digital currencies worldwide, while the pressure campaign caused the collapse of the Iranian banking sector. Bessent added that measures against Iran will be a combination of economic isolation and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and he expects more announcements on Iran next week. Furthermore, he said they will take actions unprecedented in the history of economic isolation of a country and will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen, Press TV reported.
  • UAE’s ADNOC said two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Following this, UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • US CENTCOM commander and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discuss mutual defence cooperation and efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, according to Saudi State News Agency.
  • US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is to visit Israel next week for consultations on the situation in Gaza, according to Axios
  • Airstrikes hit separatist militant group in Erbil, Iraq, according to Tehran Times.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible, IFX reported.
  • Drones hit area around Russian Baltic seaport of Ust-Luga, according to the regional governor.
  • Latvia issued an air threat alert in areas bordering Russia and Belarus, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over northeastern Latvia. It was also reported that Finland restricted aviation and maritime traffic in eastern Gulf of Finland.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea condemned US-South Korean military drills and said the military exercises are more provocative than last year, while it added that US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation is turning into a nuclear alliance. Furthermore, North Korea vowed to respond to a new level of threat with a new level of deterrent and will continue to expand nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
  • Japanese Regional Coast Guard said four Chinese ships intruded into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
  • 10:00 am: United States Aug P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 55.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m about to go off on holiday to find somewhere cooler after what was the 5th hottest day ever in the UK yesterday. I say 5th hottest but that is recorded history.  Apparently the Early Eocene Epoch some 55 million years ago was the last time these sorts of temperatures were the norm in the UK. Admittedly the country was nearer the Mediterranean then! For the next couple of weeks you’ll mostly find me bathing in an Alpine lake or shouting at my children. Henry and Peter will be holding the fort while I’m gone. See you on the other side.
Before I disappear in search of snow and ice, markets have generally been enjoying the heat. Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak. As a result, pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) also moved sharply lower as markets embraced the more dovish outlook.

That PPI release set the tone for the day, as it cemented the view after Wednesday’s CPI that the Fed didn’t need to rush into rate hikes. The data showed monthly headline PPI unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected), which meant the year-on-year reading fell back to +4.7% (vs. +4.9% expected). So the release supported the view that the energy shock was fading, and the Fed wouldn’t need to react next month. As ever, there was also some focus on the categories that feed into PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure. But those were generally mixed and offset each other, with strength in portfolio management (+6.5%) offset by weakness in other categories like airfares (-3.4%). In net terms, the PPI details added a one basis point to our US economists’ estimate for July core PCE inflation. 

The downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting. For instance, the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close. Indeed, the last time a hike by September was considered that remote was back in June, before Warsh’s first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. That said, there was a reluctance to go much lower on market pricing given we’ve still got the August jobs report and CPI report before the next FOMC meeting. And looking further out, futures are now pricing in a 92% chance of a hike by the December meeting, also the first time since June that this has been less than fully priced.

We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, but there weren’t really any surprises from a market point of view. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that “I think we need to act now”, but she’d already dissented for a rate hike in July, so that wasn’t a surprise. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) was more dovish, pointing out that much of today’s high inflation “has come from shocks, which should pass”.  

This backdrop of softer inflation and more dovish rates pricing led to a big rally for US Treasuries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) fell to 4.64%, whilst the rate-sensitive 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.14%, its lowest level in almost a month. And the 30yr yield declined by -4.5bps, though we did see the highest yield at a US Treasury auction since 2001 as $25bn of 30yr bonds were issued at 5.216%. In Asia this morning US yields are back up a basis point across the curve.

The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval. But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. Brent is flat this morning.  

Beyond the crude oil moves, it’s worth noting the continued tightness in refined product markets. Crack spreads in the US and Europe remain close to the highs reached in late July. So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher. Just ahead of filling our car before the 14-hour drive to the Alps!

Whilst the PPI reading and lower oil prices were the main market drivers yesterday, we also had the US weekly initial jobless claims. They were a bit higher than expected, rising to 209k in the week ending August 8 (vs. 202k expected), so again that cemented the view that the Fed could stay on hold at the next meeting. And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record. This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well.  

Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session. In part, that reflected Europe’s smaller exposure to tech, and also that ECB pricing didn’t move as much as Fed pricing did. Indeed, investors continue to price a September rate hike as a 90% chance for the ECB. So yields saw a comparatively smaller fall in Europe than the US, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) ending the day lower. UK gilts were a particular underperformer, with the 10yr yield only down -1.9bps after the monthly GDP print surprised on the upside in June, unexpectedly rising by +0.3% (vs. -0.1% expected).  

In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower. S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent as I type.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US retail sales for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s also the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 08:04

The Delusional Premises Of Woke Greens

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The Delusional Premises Of Woke Greens

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

While the burgeoning democratic socialist movement is getting a lot of attention in advance of the 2026 midterm elections, a parallel dimension of wokeism quietly continues to advance. For now, the Trump administration has attenuated its most extreme threats, but its institutional support is unwavering, and its slow progress is unrelenting. The woke greens are pursuing their own long march.

The agenda of the woke greens is synergistic with democratic socialism. Its currency is fear and resentment. The Earth is dying; colonialist capitalism is to blame. Extraordinary measures are called for. Restrict growth, redistribute wealth. Sound familiar? Environmentalist extremism and socialism are two peas in a pod. But both are built on lies. Nothing has delivered more wealth and freedom to more people than authentic capitalism. Not crony, casino, or monopoly capitalism, but capitalism that rewards hard work, protects private property, and preserves the incentives that harness human nature and nurture human creativity.

In contrast to capitalism, socialism is a nightmare that turns out the lights in nation after nation. The historical evidence is overwhelming. Strive to improve the mechanics of capitalism, and reject socialist demagoguery.

But there’s a catch. The planet is burning up. Ecosystems are in collapse. Therefore, we have no choice; we must redistribute wealth so everyone can consume less. Without radical measures, our civilization is unsustainable. This argument sounds compelling. But it is also built on lies that must be challenged.

Here are some of the flawed, false premises for the woke greens.

We face a climate emergency.

To anyone who has studied both sides of the debate, this is a manipulative shibboleth. From a more balanced perspective, even if there is an emergency, the opportunistic profiteering of the climate industry is obvious, and “climate” is revealed all too often as just a marketing ploy to garner mandates and subsidies for projects that would otherwise never survive an honest cost-benefit analysis.

There are nearly infinite scientifically valid reasons that explain why the planet is not experiencing an actual climate crisis, and, thanks to the failure of the climate industry to completely silence the skeptics, it’s become easier than ever to study these reasons. A good place to start is with the 2021 book “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters” by Steven E. Koonin. Another continuously updated source of climate realism comes from the CO2 Coalition, a network of scientists committed to debunking the alarmist narrative. There’s much more. Read the classic “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming,” by economist Bjorn Lomborg, or the more recent “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All” by Michael Shellenberger.

The inconvenient truth for woke greens is that the climate alarm narrative, which is the foundation of their entire subsequent agenda, is not true. But the truth has to contend with a multitrillion-dollar industry that relies on the useful fear and resentment that a “climate emergency” imparts to millions of people. It is used to silence debate over the efficacy of every one of the following destructive delusions. In no particular order, here are some of them.

Floating offshore wind provides sustainable electricity.

This is a preposterous lie. Floating offshore wind is the most expensive source of electricity on Earth. It has never been deployed successfully at scale. It is a resource hog, it wreaks environmental havoc, and installations are short-lived in the maritime environment. The heavily subsidized corporations that buy politicians and profit from this monstrous scam would not exist in a competitive market.

Biofuel is a carbon-neutral, sustainable fuel.

Another preposterous lie. There are nearly 450,000 square miles of biofuel plantations worldwide, and altogether they only supply five percent of total demand for liquid transportation fuel. These are pesticide-, herbicide-, and fertilizer-drenched monocultures that have replaced rainforests throughout the tropics. If you replaced all the arable farmland on Earth with these abominations, that would still only provide 60 percent of global demand for transportation fuel, which in turn represents only 30 percent of total demand for energy in the world. Is this sustainable?

Dams must be demolished.

While there is controversy over some dams—Turkey has new dams that can deny water to Iraq and Syria, and Ethiopia has built one that can cut off water to Egypt—in general, we need dams for flood control, navigation, irrigation, and hydroelectric power. There are ways to mitigate the impact of dams on migrating fish, and there are many instances of how dams can help the environments they impact. But no matter. According to the woke greens, they must all be demolished.

The only way to manage forests is to leave them completely alone.

This is nonsense. Forests that are managed responsibly with sustainable logging, mechanical thinning, controlled burns, and livestock grazing are far healthier. In prehistory, fires naturally and routinely thinned forests, which maintained their health by preventing an unhealthy density of trees and shrubs. Now that we put out forest fires, we must compensate by managing the resulting growth. All over the United States we are seeing superfires that are not the result of climate change but a consequence of environmentalists chasing out the loggers while not permitting any other method of thinning.

We must reintroduce wild animals wherever they once roamed.

A related premise of the woke greens is that we must not only save endangered species but also reintroduce them throughout their ancient range. Now we have mountain lions roaming the Los Angeles suburbs and wolf packs spreading slowly throughout the western United States, and there’s even talk of bringing the grizzly bear back to California. Because, to quote a woke green, “It’s their land.” No. It isn’t. It’s appropriate to take reasonable steps to preserve wildlife and wilderness areas, but allowing dangerous predator species that already have stable populations to expand their range is explicitly anti-human. We have to responsibly manage wildlife populations just as we have to responsibly manage forests. That means we have to set and enforce limits on their range.

People should live in densely populated cities.

The idea here is that someone living in a one-bedroom apartment in a high-rise in a neighborhood with 30,000 people per square mile is more “sustainable” than people living in detached homes with their own yards. The inhumanity of this is stunning, but it’s also just false. Urbanized areas on Earth (that’s cities and towns) today only total around 200,000 square miles, and yet 81 percent of the world population lives in them. We have 41 million square miles of habitable land on Earth. If 10 billion people lived in homes on quarter-acre lots, four per household, with an equal amount of land set aside for roads, parks, schools, and commercial and industrial areas, it would use up less than 2 million square miles of that land, less than five percent of habitable land.

There are too many people for the planet’s resources to sustain.

This is absolutely false. The crisis we face in the world is too few people. Birthrates are collapsing everywhere on the planet, with the exception of significant parts of the Islamic world and sub-Saharan Africa—which explains why migrants from those nations are swarming into any developed nations that will admit them. The challenge for humanity is to convince people who have attained the liberty and prosperity to live lives beyond bare subsistence to still decide to have children. The human population is projected, at most, to peak at 10 billion by around 2050. After that, unless dramatic cultural trends are reversed, it will decline precipitously.

Rationing energy, water, land, and other resources is necessary to save the planet.

The irony here is that the “renewables” touted by the woke greens as the sustainable solution to environmental challenges are the biggest resource hogs of all. But all historical evidence demonstrates that as long as people have freedom to innovate, for every dwindling resource, something new replaces it. Humanity has never before stood at the threshold of as many new technological breakthroughs as we have right now. The only thing that stops us from achieving per capita abundance at higher levels than ever is authoritarian corruption, and among the biggest enablers of that are the woke greens.

These false premises only scratch the surface of how woke greens and their favored mantra, the “climate emergency,” are transforming global politics, especially in Western nations, and not for the better. Accompanying the danger the continued dominance of these false premises poses to our freedom and prosperity is great irony. For those who have concluded these premises are false, there is less willingness to recognize new so-called green technologies that nonetheless make economic sense and merit further development. And for those who are fixated on the false premise of a climate emergency, there is less ability to recognize and address genuine threats to the environment, of which there are many.

Climate alarmism has taken on a momentum detached from reality. For tens of thousands of bureaucrats and politicians in the U.S., accepting it is simply the path of least resistance. But just as all elements of radical woke ideology must be challenged and overcome, so too must the woke green movement.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 05:00

“Skies Are Changing”: Northrop Grumman Unveils Chain Gun To Defend Critical Infrastructure From Drone Swarm Attacks

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“Skies Are Changing”: Northrop Grumman Unveils Chain Gun To Defend Critical Infrastructure From Drone Swarm Attacks

Our view of the missing air-defense layer around data centers and other critical infrastructure emerged in late January, roughly one month before the US-Iran conflict, when we published “Explosion in AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security.”

That theme was validated shortly after the war began, when Iran targeted multiple data centers with Shahed-series one-way attack drones, which generally fall within the Group 3 category. The strikes marked one of the clearest demonstrations of how low-cost, long-range drones could threaten the physical infrastructure underpinning the AI economy.

The conflict has fundamentally changed the threat assessment surrounding high-value civilian assets and has become a matter of general consensus among military leaders and politicians, as well as the military-industrial complex and many defense startups.

We just happened to be one month ahead of that shift in consensus.

Now, defense giant Northrop Grumman has unveiled Raid Hunter, a 50mm gun-based air-defense system designed to protect not only military bases but also critical infrastructure from drone swarms, cruise missiles and other aerial threats.

Raid Hunter combines the company’s Chain Gun technology with precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked battle-management controller. Northrop said the high rate of fire, deep magazine and rapid reload capability offer a more economical response than launching million-dollar interceptor missiles at $20,000 drones.

Highlights of the new kinetic interceptor:

  • Raid Hunter combines proven Chain Gun technology, precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked, interoperable system controller to deliver powerful protection against high-volume, mixed-threat aerial raids. It is designed to defeat a range of aerial threats, including high-priority cruise missile threats, unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and other advanced threats.
  • Raid Hunter’s guided 50mm ammunition, combined with a high-rate-of-fire Chain Gun, delivers lethal, cost-considerate engagement with deep magazines and fast reloads, tackling the economic challenge of massed swarming threats.
  • Raid Hunter is built to deploy with speed and flexibility through a modular design for rapid transportation on the C-130, with future vehicle-mounted and container-based variants planned.
  • Raid Hunter is the latest product of Northrop Grumman’s continued investment in advanced counter-UAS and air-defense technologies designed to meet evolving operational requirements and emerging battlefield threats.
  • As part of the company’s C-UAS integrated air- and missile-defense portfolio, the system supports layered defense architectures to protect critical assets across a range of operations.

The big challenge now shifts to series production capable of meeting the soaring demand from bases, data centers, refineries, power plants, substations, and you name it… 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 04:15

Decommissioning Spending In UK North Sea Hits Record High

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Decommissioning Spending In UK North Sea Hits Record High

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Decommissioning remained a major activity across the UK North Sea in 2025, with industry spending hitting a record-high of £2.6 billion, or $3.5 billion, the North Sea industry regulator said in a report on Thursday.

Well-decommissioning remains the single largest component of forecast decommissioning expenditure on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), accounting for around half of expected costs to 2032, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) noted in its annual decommissioning cost and performance update.

The UK North Sea has a backlog of about 500 wells awaiting decommissioning and final abandonment, which means operators need to speed up work on well closures and abandonment, the watchdog said.

Last year, operators in the UK North Sea spent about £1.3 billion, or $1.75 billion, on well decommissioning activity only, with work undertaken on more than 250 wells and over 100 reaching final abandonment status.

“While this represents an increase in activity, a backlog of approximately 500 wells awaiting final abandonment remains,” the NSTA said.

“With more than 1,000 additional wells forecast to be decommissioned over the next five years, activity levels will need to increase significantly if industry is to meet regulatory expectations and provide the certainty of work needed to attract and retain critical supply chain resources.”

Nearly half of all spending on decommissioning in the UKCS is expected to be made by 2032, in what has been dubbed the ‘decade of decommissioning’ by the regulator.

Moreover, decommissioning expenditure is forecast to overtake capital expenditure (capex) from 2029 onwards as the UK North Sea matures and as few new oil and gas projects have been given the green light in recent years.

In what could be a relief for the North Sea offshore oil and gas industry, the UK’s new Labour Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, is expected to support some new projects, unlike his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, who sought to permanently ban new drilling.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 03:30

Where Child Poverty Is Highest (And Lowest) In The OECD

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Where Child Poverty Is Highest (And Lowest) In The OECD

Child poverty rates vary widely across OECD economies, ranging from less than 5% in Finland to nearly 30% in Costa Rica.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Melissa Garside, ranks OECD countries by the share of children ages 0–17 living below the poverty line in 2023. The poverty line is defined as half the median household income of the total population, meaning the measure is relative to living standards within each country. As a result, countries with the same poverty rate can differ in the absolute income levels of households classified as poor.

The data for this visualization comes from the OECD Income Distribution Database. It presents 2023 data, the latest available as of August 2026, covering OECD member countries as well as Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, which are currently in the accession process.

Costa Rica Has Highest Child Poverty Rate in OECD

Costa Rica stood well above the rest of the ranking. Its 29.6% child poverty rate was 6.4 percentage points higher than Israel’s, the next-highest country at 23.2%.

High living costs and a large informal labor market are among the factors that can leave households with children particularly vulnerable to poverty.

Rank Country Living Below the Poverty Line
(%, Ages 0-17)
1 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 29.6
2 🇮🇱 Israel 23.2
3 🇪🇸 Spain 21.5
4 🇺🇸 United States 21.1
5 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 19.1
6 🇷🇴 Romania 17.7
7 🇬🇧 UK 15.8
8 🇮🇹 Italy 14.5
9 🇨🇦 Canada 14.0
10 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 13.5
11 🇱🇹 Lithuania 12.8
12 🇸🇰 Slovakia 12.8
13 🇵🇹 Portugal 12.5
14 🇭🇷 Croatia 12.3
15 🇬🇷 Greece 12.3
16 🇫🇷 France 12.0
17 🇭🇺 Hungary 11.3
18 🇱🇻 Latvia 10.0
19 🇦🇹 Austria 9.8
20 🇩🇪 Germany 9.1
21 🇨🇭 Switzerland 9.1
22 🇨🇿 Czechia 8.8
23 🇰🇷 South Korea 8.5
24 🇸🇪 Sweden 8.4
25 🇳🇱 Netherlands 8.4
26 🇪🇪 Estonia 8.2
27 🇧🇪 Belgium 7.9
28 🇵🇱 Poland 7.8
29 🇳🇴 Norway 6.9
30 🇮🇪 Ireland 6.8
31 🇸🇮 Slovenia 6.2
32 🇫🇮 Finland 4.6

The child poverty rate in Israel, one of the OECD countries with the youngest populations, is highly concentrated among two groups: Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews and Israeli Arabs. Both groups have child poverty rates of nearly 50%.

One in Five American Children Live in Poverty

The United States had the fourth-highest child poverty rate among OECD countries at 21.1%, just behind Spain at 21.5%.

Despite the country’s high overall wealth, roughly one in five U.S. children lived in households with incomes below half the national median. This illustrates the distinction between national wealth and how income is distributed among households with children.

The number of households living in poverty also varies significantly by state.

Northern Europe Has Some of the Lowest Child Poverty Rates

At the other end of the scale, Finland had the lowest child poverty rate at 4.6%, followed by Slovenia at 6.2%, Ireland at 6.8%, and Norway at 6.9%.

The difference between the extremes is substantial: Costa Rica’s child poverty rate was more than six times Finland’s. Four countries in the ranking had rates above 20%, while 10 had rates below 9%.

Because the OECD measure is relative to each country’s median income, these differences reflect how children fare within their own national income distribution rather than differences in absolute living standards between countries.

If you found this topic interesting, read People With Dependent Children Face Higher Poverty on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 02:45

The Great Decline Of Britain

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The Great Decline Of Britain

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain’s streets are rotting in plain sight. Road signs coated in years of grime, pavements choked with weeds, blocked drains, overflowing bins and potholes have become everyday features of life in what was once a first-world country.

Local authorities, funded by rising council tax, routinely fail to deliver the most basic maintenance. Ordinary people – including schoolchildren – are now having to do the job themselves.

All across the length and breadth of the country, from London squares to provincial roads, citizens are cleaning signs, restoring bins and clearing litter because the people paid to do it will not.

The pattern is unmistakable: a country in visible decline, where the basics are abandoned while public money flows to ideologically driven schemes.

James Melville has documented the decay repeatedly. Rubbish everywhere, weeds forcing their way through pavements, endless potholes, blocked road drains and filthy signposts appear in image after image. He notes that people are paying higher taxes yet receiving less, with local councils failing on core infrastructure.

Another recent video shows conditions that simply do not belong in a first-world nation, asking whether the decline is reversible.

Another focuses on a council that has left basic service standards unmet.

Volunteers have stepped into the gap, proving that all it takes is a step ladder, cleaning spray and sponge to make filthy almost illegible road signs clear again.

In London, Chad West fixed neglected garden square bins that the council had left unrepaired for years. He restored them in a few hours and later completed the full set of six, calling for people to take pride in their streets again.

Even children are outperforming the authorities. In the seaside village of Millisle in Northern Ireland, brothers Jonah, 10, and Eli, 9, spent their school holidays scrubbing street signs with rubber gloves, cloths, sponges and soapy water. They set themselves a target of 50 signs and had already completed 36. They began after noticing dirty signs on the drive home and decided to clean them so people could actually read the names.

Jonah said: “We were driving home in my mum’s car and we saw some dirty signs so we decided to go clean them to allow people to be able to see them.” He added: “It’s very important to take pride in your village. Doing something small can make a big difference.”

Eli said they would keep going until the job was done, whatever the weather. Their mother Shelley said she was pleased they showed initiative and that it was something they would always remember and be proud of. Local residents praised the results, noting the signs were now legible again.

These acts of basic civic maintenance stand in sharp contrast to how councils choose to spend public money.

In Cambridge, England’s first “cycle street” on Adams Road cost £2.4 million. Yes, really. Look at it.

It gave cyclists and pedestrians priority, narrowed the carriageway, added red surfacing and special signage. Within months the road markings proved inadequate. The street had to be closed for roughly two weeks so the contractor could remove and replace them. A Greater Cambridge Partnership spokesperson said a routine quality check revealed the markings were not up to the required standard and apologised for the inconvenience.

In London, Camden Council installed four zebra crossings painted in the blue, pink and white colours of the transgender pride flag in Bloomsbury at a cost of £10,464. The stated purpose was to “help celebrate transgender awareness.”

A local resident, Blessing Olubanjo, argued that the crossings breach political neutrality rules under the Local Government Act 1986 and amount to unlawful political messaging. She said: “I brought this case because I believe in fairness, freedom of belief, and the proper role of public institutions. As a Christian and a taxpayer, I should not be made to feel excluded or marginalised by political symbols in public spaces. This crossing sends a message that only one viewpoint is welcome, and that’s not right in a truly democratic society.”

Andrea Williams of the Christian Legal Centre stated: “The crossing is a visual endorsement of a contested ideology, installed by a public authority in breach of its legal duties. This is not the role of local government.” Disability groups had previously warned that the colours could confuse visually impaired people and those with learning disabilities or sensory sensitivity.

Such rainbow and trans crossings have been installed in countless locations, particularly in London.

Meanwhile, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has poured millions into basketball courts and related programmes. City Hall has invested nearly £2 million to improve facilities, expand coaching schemes and create more opportunities for the sport.

Recent work includes partnership with NBA champion OG Anunoby and Camden Council to redevelop the Argyle Square court. Critics point out that many British people do not even play or watch basketball and that streets choked with weeds and filthy signs represent more immediate needs.

This is what decline looks like. First-world countries do not leave their road signs illegible for years. They do not require ten-year-olds to restore civic pride during the school holidays. They do not prioritise contested ideological symbols and niche sports infrastructure while the everyday environment decays.

Britain is displaying the visual markers once associated with much poorer nations: neglect of the ordinary, indifference from those in charge, and citizens forced to improvise solutions.

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2026 – 02:00

Total Freedom Vs Total Slavery & The Race For AI Supremacy

survivalnomics
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Total Freedom Vs Total Slavery & The Race For AI Supremacy

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The introduction of AI into popular consciousness and everyday usage has been rather disappointing, for the most part. And by that I mean, we’re not seeing any spectacular benefits to the presence of AI while the negatives keep piling up.

At best, AI represents an advancement for information structuring; a much faster way to sort, categorize and investigate the data landscape. I find it very useful for speeding up research, but it only works as long as you understand that AI tends to lie by omission. It can never be fully trusted and must be backed by source material.

By extension, AI makes people incredibly lazy when it comes to understanding the world or pursuing information. When the public takes AI information at face value because they don’t want to do their own research, it makes them dumber. I foresee a dark future, maybe a decade from now, where the vast majority of people have become virtually retarded because all of their daily decisions and views of the world come from a reliance on AI.

Some people will argue that we’ve already hit that unfortunate threshold. In any case, what is the ultimate purpose of AI? There’s hundreds of different answers depending on who you ask, however, only a few explanations stand out as true motivators for the race to artificial intelligence.

A Labor-Free Utopia?

If you ask technologists and dreamers like Elon Musk, the goal is unlimited production. Meaning, AI and robotics would take over the majority of human labor. In theory, this would result in a new age of “time abundance” which Musk believes would lead to a form of wealth abundance. That is to say, AI technology makes individual labor unnecessary and thus, money becomes unnecessary because all basic needs would be provided for free.

There are two disturbing problems with this idea: First, it’s a claim we’ve been hearing for a very long time. The futurists and technocrats of every socialist revolution have been promising the populace a labor-free Utopia for over a century. Usually this propaganda is designed to ease the public transition into a system in which the state controls mass production and limits individual freedom.

The promise of a labor-free world is usually a con-game designed to lure the public into total reliance on government. When your very survival is dependent on the system, it’s far less likely that you will ever rebel against that system should it be corrupted.

I’m not saying that Musk is falsely promising a “Utopia”, I think he really does believe that AI and robotics are the answer to the age-old conundrum of the “wealth gap”, poverty and the production plateau. What I’m saying is, this dream is much further away than the year 2036, or even the year 2050. And, if we do reach it, it might not be as fantastical as we might hope.

Every new industrial age has it’s dreamers and they all imagine a world where human struggle is eliminated by machines. It never happens. I suspect robotics and AI would make some things easier, just as all tools make certain jobs easier, but let’s not forget that the further humanity moves away from self reliance the more we seem to be required to work (or, the more time we are expected to trade) to maintain a basic level of comfort.

Previous industrial revolutions have created benefits and added time to the human lifespan. But we’ve also seen technological reformation lead to greater work demands and less time for the average person. Before the first industrial revolution, the average person worked 1500 – 2000 hours annually. After the industrial revolution, hours skyrocketed to 3000 – 3500 hours annually. Labor laws were finally enacted which forced work time back to 1800 hours annually per person.

Despite the vast improvements in productivity, there was no dramatic improvement in free time for common people and I’m not so sure the AI revolution will be any different. This brings us to the second problem: Nothing in life is ever free and the reason why is ENERGY.

Musk’s vision of an AI super-industry running the majority of the world’s basic infrastructure and supplying the majority of our survival goods would require an unprecedented level of energy. Ever try to fly a drone? Ever look up the average battery life for a Boston Dynamics robot? Ever try to drive an EV cross-country?

You might get 30 minutes out of a consumer grade drone. You can get 4 hours out of an advanced robot. The massive battery in an electric car will give you around 300 miles of drive time. But when you recharge any of these items you’re going to be using the power grid. And, that power grid will largely be supplied by coal or natural gas. “Fossil fuel” products still run the world because they are the most efficient.

There’s a reason why only 5% of US car owners drive an electric vehicle; the initial expense is high and the long term savings are mediocre. More than that, though, the infrastructure is simply not in place to support a larger influx of EV users.

If 50% of American drivers bought an EV tomorrow, this alone would increase the electrical load on US power grids by around 15%. Add to this the power usage of data centers and AI computing needed to run national robotics networks and the resulting energy demands would crush the grid. Either that, or the cost of electricity would inflate until human demand hits a wall.

This is just for America (the most advanced nation on Earth). Don’t get me started on Europe, where their grid can’t even handle widespread use of air conditioners.

We could upgrade with solar (which is inefficient), or build extra nuclear power plants, but this would take decades to accomplish. General estimates indicate such a project would cost anywhere from $5 trillion on the low end to $15 trillion on the high end, and it would take 30 years to complete. We’re talking about a two-generation endeavor requiring a level of coordination and cooperation that simply does not exist in today’s political climate.

Hell, we can’t even get leftists and globalists to admit that nuclear power is a clean source of energy. Those idiots are still building wind turbines and murdering thousands of whales and birds in the name of preventing a “climate crisis” that they fabricated out of thin air.

To summarize, the world of production abundance and a work-free population is a LONG ways away, because the energy resources for that kind of industrial revolution simply don’t exist. At best, we could build a supplementary economy in which robotics and AI are used as tools to make things faster or easier. The average person is still going to have to get a 9-to-5 job and will still have to make money to live.

All of this relies on good intentions behind the rush to AI supremacy, and yes, I realize how funny that sounds.

A Freedom-Less Dystopia?

The worst case scenario is the more likely one: AI, data centers and robotics will be used to empower elitist groups and make controlling the population easier. When I examine institutions like the WEF, the IMF, the BIS, etc. , their involvement with AI revolves around the digitization of the economy (a cashless society) and maximizing surveillance of the population through real time data tracking.

Until these malicious people are removed from the equation, no AI based system can be trusted to operate in the best interests of the public. Maybe the technology can be used for good, but they are pursuing these tools to do evil and there is an array of sinister deeds to be done when you have a force multiplier like AI at your disposal.

Much less energy is needed for authoritarian applications. The existing grid could handle the spread of Flock cameras, the AI analysis of biometrics and license plate readers, the constant surveillance of financial transactions, etc. If they start forcing the public to use less and less electricity (in the name of saving the Earth from climate change, of course), the job of running a network of eyes and ears becomes even more simple.

Total information awareness on the part of governments and international entities is a bad thing. They don’t need to know everything we’re doing; it’s better that they know less and retain a healthy level of fear when it comes to the popular mood. When the bureaucracy is no longer afraid because they have everyone under a microscope, that’s when terrible things are going to happen.

The Information Economy Is A Fantasy?

Beyond the best and worst case scenarios for AI and robotics rests a middle-ground explanation for the AI rush, and that’s the concept of the “information economy.” In its lowest form, the information economy taps into algorithms to gather behavioral data for companies to target selling and marketing of products; it’s the building of individual consumer profiles for targeted advertising and higher profits.

As many people know, these algorithms get most things wrong and rarely compel us to buy anything we weren’t already going to purchase. As for the idea of information replacing raw resources as the engine of the global economy, all I can think of is the financial sector’s blind faith in derivatives in the early 2000s. An economy built on intangible products is an economy destined for collapse.

In its most insidious form, the information economy strives for predictive power. That is to say, companies and governments hope to use complex AI analysis of market behavior to predict larger shifts in the economic and political landscape. And, if you can predict these shifts, you could theoretically influence them as well.

This was the ultimate goal of companies like Google (tracking search trends to the point of becoming omniscient). AI just makes the real-time analysis easier. That said, I suspect predicting mass economic and political changes is a lot like predicting the weather – You might be able to guess a few days ahead, but the complexities of the system make long term prognostication impossible. The technocratic faith in a digital Nostradamus (or digital god) is moronic.

At bottom, the application of AI, robotics, data centers, and related technologies could cause a sea change in the way we live our lives, but not because these changes are inevitable. Rather, these changes would have to be forced on an unaware and confused public.

I suspect this is why the tech trend is pushing so hard for human-like robots.  The human form is not so great for most physical requirements; why the insistence on making robots look human?  Maybe because making them look human makes them more acceptable to the average person?

AI is not an industrial revolution in the traditional sense because it’s not driven by free market demand. Most people can easily live without AI while the benefit to their lives is barely noticeable. The second industrial revolution introduced electricity, unprecedented medical advancement, long distance communications and easy transportation; all things that people never want to live without.

AI pales in comparison so far, and the promises that propel its popularity require an energy renaissance that isn’t possible for many decades to come. Sadly, the most logical use for the proliferation of AI is suppression of the populace. For the globalists, the AI race is not about improving the future for the common man, it’s about injecting the technology into the common man’s life before he has a chance to realize he’s being chained down by it.

Without intensive open source laws, extensive public oversight and the elimination of elitist influence, AI will only result in disaster.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2026 – 23:25

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