Turkish Cargo Ship Sunk By Drone Strike Off Romania, Two Sailors Killed
There’s no doubt that the tit-for-tat war on Black Sea shipping is getting nastier. For several months now, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have traded drone and missile attacks on ports and ships, disrupting vital Black Sea trade.
For Ukraine this national transit lifeline is even more important amid its war time economy. A major incident has unfolded Monday after an alleged direct hit by Russian drone on a Turkish cargo ship carrying grain from a Ukrainian port.
Screengrab from rescue footage of the Royad Mammadov sinking off Romania’s coast.
Two crew members died, while eleven others were rescued, and with another reported missing. Ukraine quickly blamed Russia for the attack.
Romanian vessels and helicopters conducted the large rescue operation off national waters, some 20 miles from the NATO member’s shore.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis flagged ship – identified as the Royad Mammadov – eventually sunk as a result of the attack after catching fire in the wake of the initial drone impact and blasts.
It had reportedly been headed out of the Ukrainian port of Ismail in the Odesa region navigating towards Ravenna, Italy when it came under assault.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky laid direct blame on Russia. “A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Türkiye. Azerbaijani and Indian citizens were on board,” he wrote on X.
“As of now, unfortunately, we know that the ship’s captain was killed. My condolences. The fate of one other person is still being established. Eleven crew members were rescued, one of them injured,” he added.
While Russian authorities did not comment or own up to the specific attack, the Russian Defense Ministry did announce hours earlier that its forces had struck two cargo vessels, according to Reuters.
Surreal footage showing large cargo ship about to go under the water amid high-risk rescue operation:
Another merchant vessel has been sunk in the Black Sea. The Royad Mammadov, carrying grain from Ukraine’s Izmail to Ravenna, Italy, caught fire and sank after being struck by a drone on Oct. 5. Two crew members were killed, 11 rescued. The vessel was Turkish-operated and went down in Romania’s EEZ, about 30 nautical miles south of Sfântu Gheorghe. This is what the Black Sea #grain risk looks like now. What does this mean for regional grain exports and #wheat prices? Our view: https://t.co/m4IIeeRsmT #Ukraine #blacksea #oatt
These attacks on Black Sea shipping have been steadily ramping up all summer. With roughly 90% of Ukrainian grain and sunflower shipments departing from the primary port cluster of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenne, the fallout on Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been severe.
Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew. It has accused Ukraine of seeking to hide military shipments under the guise of civilian cargo transit.
Watch: UK Police Clear Streets Of Entire Town So Migrant Boat Can Offload
Residents of Gosport, the Royal Navy harbor town across the water from Portsmouth, spent Sunday under police orders that let officers direct people to leave town, as a migrant boat from France made its way toward their coastline.
The migrants were brought into Gosport onboard an RNLI boat (AOL)
Hampshire and Isle of Wight Constabulary imposed a Section 34 dispersal order covering the entire town under the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014, running until 7am Tuesday. It lets officers order people to leave an area and not return, and refusing is a criminal offense. Police stacked several more restrictions on top:
Protesters were confined to a single designated area inside the Walpole car park under Section 14 of the Public Order Act.
Face coverings at protests were banned across both Gosport and Portsmouth.
Haslar Bridge was closed.
The boat left Normandy, near Utah Beach, on Sunday morning. Late Sunday evening, two RNLI lifeboats brought 149 people ashore in Gosport, who were then put on coaches to Kent for processing, health, security and biometric checks. It was the third crossing headed for the western Channel coast in a month, a route that had been rare in recent years.
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO of boats arriving. I can not believe the British Government have allowed a boat of illegal migrants to dock in the Home of the Royal Navy here in Portsmouth Harbour, Gosport.
This makes me feel physically sick. They wonder why local people are angry. This is why
Not far right thugs. Normal local families and people horrified at what they are witnessing. When will this end?
Two weeks ago, a boat carrying around 50 migrants was rerouted to Dover after locals protested.
On Sunday, around 350 demonstrators turned out anyway, according to the Portsmouth News, with reports of flares and scuffles with police. By Monday, 12 people had been arrested, for offenses including assaulting a police officer. Six people were arrested at a similar protest last month.
Footage posted overnight shows the lifeboats coming in after dark, and the police escort that then moved the coaches out of town.
Holy. Shit.
Drone footage from the UK tonight…
The UK government is using the cover of darkness to continue importing foreign men. They will all live off British taxpayers. Before long, they will all have multiple children.
HONESTLY look at this video. The resources gone in to bringing in, protecting and securing illegal migrants is astonishing. They have a bigger security motorcade than Trump would have on a visit.
The lengths the police and government are going to to facilitate this “INVASION” amazes me! 😳
Gosport 🏴
Police block off the road to allow the migrant coaches to get away last night so no one can follow them and document etc ..what is going on! @GBNEWS@TRobinsonNewEra
Tensions on this stretch of coast have been building for weeks. On Sept. 22, Hayling Island native Daniel Thomas, an anti-migrant activist known online as “Danny Tommo” whom Breitbart describes as a Tommy Robinson ally, allegedly slashed a migrant boat in the Channel with an emergency responder on board. The 37-year-old has pleaded not guilty to criminal damage and to refusing to give police his phone PIN, and a judge at Portsmouth Crown Court denied him bail on Sept. 29. His trial is provisionally set for March 2027.
The local Conservative MP, Caroline Dinenage, wants the boats sent elsewhere. “Gosport is not a safe or suitable location to disembark small boats,” she said, arguing that any small boat intercepted in the Channel should be taken directly to Dover by water, as the Home Office did two weeks ago.
George Madgwick, who leads Reform UK on Hampshire County Council, put it more bluntly: “It’s heart-breaking because Portsmouth Harbour is the home of the Royal Navy… Britain is Broken.”
Then there is the bill. Hampshire’s Police and Crime Commissioner, Donna Jones, says every one of these landings now comes with a price tag for local taxpayers:
“On each one of the protests that are happening every time we have one of these threats of a small boat landing, it is costing me £150,000 of taxpayers’ money from my police budget, which I can ill afford to spend.”
In a video message, Jones called on the Home Secretary to make sure Border Force has vessels big enough to transfer people off the dinghies at sea and take them to Dover for processing.
On Monday, a government spokesperson said: “We have established contingency plans to make sure we can securely disembark, check and process all small boat arrivals.”
Trump Plans To Ease Off-Road Diesel Restrictions Ahead Of Midterms
Bloomberg reported late Monday afternoon that the Trump administration is preparing to loosen restrictions on tax-exempt dyed diesel, seeking to ease costs for the industrial fuel that powers the economy amid a global refining crisis.
The report cites people familiar with the matter, and the new policy could be announced as soon as today.
The plan would allow broader use of dyed diesel, better known as off-road diesel, which is mostly used in farm machinery, construction equipment and other off-road applications. This move would allow for savings of 24 cents per gallon because the fuel is exempt from federal excise tax.
“While the move wouldn’t directly lower operational costs for harvesters, tractors, excavators and other off-road equipment that already runs on tax-exempt red diesel, it is seen as potentially cutting the expense to run pickup trucks and other on-road vehicles,” the outlet said.
As of Monday, US retail diesel prices averaged around $6.32 a gallon at the pump, down from September’s record $6.53 but roughly 68% above the $3.76 recorded before the US-Iran conflict began in late February.
The State Department said on Oct. 1 that it has revoked more than 250,000 visas since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott announced in a post on X that the administration has been working to identify and revoke visas held by noncitizens who were found to “commit crimes, support terrorism, or defraud Americans.”
On Sept. 28, Pigott said the department imposed visa restrictions on 27 officials from Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru over allegations of corruption and ties to drug-trafficking activities.
The officials included Bolivia’s Attorney General Roger Mariaca, whom the department accused of soliciting and accepting bribes to enable drug-trafficking and helping violent criminals evade punishment.
The restrictions also applied to those people’s family members.
Pigott said the visa limits were imposed under Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows the government to bar a person’s entry into the country if the Secretary of State determines the person’s presence would have potentially serious negative consequences.
“This is a durable mechanism that allows the United States to act quickly, in coordination with our partners, as evidence develops,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
The Trump administration has intensified enforcement against illegal immigration and tightened the country’s vetting procedures for foreign nationals seeking to enter the United States.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sept. 28 that the United States will restrict visas for people who obstruct the return of children abducted abroad by a parent, as well as those people’s immediate family members.
Rubio said the new policy was intended to streamline cases that have dragged on in foreign courts and government offices and “gives the department a new accountability tool to press non-compliant countries to meet their obligations.”
In June, Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division issued a memo directing federal prosecutors to prioritize investigations into birth tourism schemes.
The move came after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants.
Trump’s order on birthright citizenship, issued on Jan. 20, 2025, said the 14th Amendment’s citizenship clause does not extend citizenship universally to everyone born within the United States.
The Supreme Court ruled on June 30 that the order ran counter to the U.S. Constitution.
Space-based solar power just got another powerful vote of confidence. The United States Department of Defense just inked a contract with solar energy company Overview Energy to “design, build, and test a homing beacon that will enable its space-based solar energy system to accurately beam power from orbit to receiving solar arrays on Earth,” according to a brand new report from Interesting Engineering.
The idea is that solar panels would orbit the Earth, collecting sunlight straight from the source and then beaming it back down to Earth either through powerful lasers or microwave beams, depending on the technology being applied.
Putting solar panels into outer space would yield a litany of benefits. Critically, unlike terrestrial models, the sun would never set on these solar panels, allowing them to generate clean energy 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This would solve an enormous issue in the clean energy sector, which is seeing increasing instances of wasted energy and even negative energy prices as peak production hours and peak demand hours are inevitably misaligned, and energy storage capacities have lagged far behind productive capacity.
And intermittency is not the only major challenge to the traditional solar power sector that space-based solar would be able to sidestep completely. Industrial-scale solar farms take up enormous tracts of land, and are therefore facing increasing legal challenges to secure appropriate plots for development. A single large-scale solar farm can take up thousands of acres. According to a 2022 insight report from strategy & management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, utility-scale solar farms require ten times as much space per unit of power as coal- or natural gas–fired power plants, at minimum. And that’s counting the land used to produce and transport the fossil fuels. Jettisoning those solar panels into space is one way of solving that problem.
Plus, the power from space-based solar panels would be dispatchable. Since solar satellites can view entire quadrants of the globe, they can beam energy when and where it is needed most with an enormous degree of accuracy. All of these factors serve to make the technology highly attractive to the Department of Defense, which wants to use space-based solar power for remote military bases. The first demonstration of the technology is planned for 2028, with deployment of the planned geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) satellite constellation slated to begin in 2030.
“The connection between space and the ground is the most critical element of space solar energy, especially for warfighters who depend on power at precise locations,” Darko Filipi, Overview Energy co-CEO, was quoted by Interesting Engineering.
The United States military is not the only major investor to sign a massive contract with Overview Energy. The four-year-old startup inked a deal with Meta – the megacompany behind Facebook, Instagram, and more – earlier this year, agreeing to provide up to 1 gigawatt of space-based solar energy to the tech giant – equivalent to the output of a nuclear reactor.
However, both of these contracts are based on a nascent technology and the complete space-to-ground system has yet to be demonstrated from orbit. But the leaders of Overview are confident that their big gamble will pay off in spades. “We really believe that we are able to provide utility-scale power with this technology,” Filipi recently told the Washington Post.
However, not everyone is so optimistic. “The technology may work,” Amory Lovins, a Stanford physicist and co-founder of the energy think tank RMI, told the Washington Post. “But I have serious doubts the economics do.” He pointed to the many other forms of clean, abundant, proven, and round-the-clock power alternatives, such as nuclear and geothermal, that can produce electricity much more cheaply and with more proven and established technologies.
The share of gasoline cars in global vehicle sales fell below 50% for the first time ever as the Hormuz shock and the resulting record-high fuel prices accelerated the previously sluggish shift toward EVs outside China.
A few years ago, China blew past the threshold of 50% of all car sales being hybrids and EVs, and the share is now about 55%. But the rest of the world didn’t follow until the Iran war disrupted the fuel markets.
Global sales shares of EVs are far from the Chinese numbers, but the shift toward electric vehicles has been remarkably fast amid spiking gasoline and diesel prices, which pushed many consumers to choose EVs.
The surge in gasoline prices this year led to the first dip in the share of gasoline-fueled cars below 50%, ever, according to data by automotive data and analytics provider Mobility Global cited by Nikkei Asia.
Between January and June, sales of gas-powered vehicles, excluding hybrids, slumped by 10% from a year earlier, to 20.25 million cars, and their share of total global automotive sales fell by 3 percentage points to 49%, the data showed.
For years, the EV uptake in markets outside China was sluggish and lagging forecasts, but the Hormuz crisis, the $100 oil prices, and record diesel and gasoline prices pushed many consumers in Europe, South America, and Asia Pacific toward EVs.
Battery electric vehicle sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, surged by 52.2% in August from a year earlier as record-high gasoline and diesel prices prompted drivers to flock to battery and hybrid vehicles, data by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, showed last month.
BEV sales in Germany, the biggest car market in Europe, soared by 75% in August year-over-year, as gasoline prices in Germany hit an all-time high of 2.31 euros per liter, or the equivalent of about $10 per gallon.
EV sales in France, another major European market, more than doubled.
In Germany, where the government introduced a purchase premium for EVs from January 2026, sales are accelerating, an analysis by the German Institute for Economic Research, DIW, showed earlier this week.
One in every four passenger cars sold in Germany between January and August was a pure battery electric vehicle, while the share in August was even higher – one in every three passenger cars sold was a BEV, according to the analysis. This compares to an average of 19% in 2025.
Globally, electric vehicle sales have surged this year following the oil supply disruption in the Middle East and the second oil price shock in four years.
Following a subdued start to the year, EV sales jumped in the second quarter after the Middle East crisis slashed crude supply and hiked oil and fuel prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in July in an update to its annual EV outlook.
EV sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter, rising by 35% compared with the first quarter “as the energy crisis sparked by the war in the Middle East brought fuel price volatility back into sharp focus,” the agency said.
EV sales in the second quarter reached record-high levels in 50 countries as drivers preferred electric vehicles amid soaring fuel prices.
In sizable car markets such as Brazil, India, Australia, and Vietnam, electric car sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025, according to the IEA’s analysis in the report.
Moreover, as many as 90 countries saw annual growth in EV sales in the first half of the year.
The accelerating EV adoption that began with the spike in oil and fuel prices is set to remain a trend in the global markets and could push the share of EVs in the passenger fleet above earlier expectations, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say.
Challenges to accelerated adoption still remain, including the need for billions of U.S. dollars in investments in critical battery minerals supply and charging networks. Yet, the longer the Strait of Hormuz crisis roils global fuel markets, the stronger the case for EV adoption could become.
Houthis Seize Yemen Parliament Speaker’s Home, Cut Taiz-Aden Lifeline As All-Out War Erupts
Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized the home of Yemen’s parliament speaker, Sultan al-Barakani, during a lightning advance south of Taiz that has also cut one of the government’s most important remaining supply routes, according to reports.
Multiple Yemeni and regional outlets reported Sunday that Houthi fighters entered al-Barakani’s residence in Wadi al-Barakani, south of Taiz, and established positions inside. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported the seizure citing field sources, while Al-Ain placed the property in the Al-Ma’afer district and said the Houthis occupied it following heavy fighting with Yemeni forces and local residents. China’s Xinhua subsequently quoted a Yemeni government official confirming that Houthi forces had captured the al-Barakani area containing the parliament speaker’s house.
Aden Al-Ghad later published video which it said showed Houthi fighters entering the property. Footage circulated by the open-source researcher @war_noir shows armed men moving through a large reception hall lined with seating, then cuts to the white compound on the hillside.
#Yemen 🇾🇪: Ansar Allah (#Houthis) captured mansion of the Sultan Al-Barakani; Saudi-backed speaker of the Yemeni House of Representatives.
The Ansar Allah members who raided Al-Barakani’s house appear to be armed with rather common Chinese Type 56-1 assault rifles.
Al-Barakani has served as speaker of the internationally recognized Yemeni parliament since 2019 and remains one of the most prominent political figures aligned with the anti-Houthi camp – so images of Houthi fighters inside his residence therefore make for obvious propaganda.
Taiz’s Lifeline Is Cut
The Houthis’ advance through southern Taiz governorate has severed the critical road network connecting Taiz with Aden, the temporary capital of Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
The Critical Threats Project and Institute for the Study of War assessed Sunday that Houthi forces advanced through al-Safiyah and al-Mansora before capturing the strategically vital town of al-Turbah, citing geolocated imagery as well as Yemeni sources.
Al-Turbah sits at the junction of the two main roads connecting government front-line positions around Taiz with Aden.
CTP/ISW warned that Houthi control there will likely “severely constrain” the government’s ability to reinforce and resupply forces across Taiz governorate.
Control of the roads south of Taiz could also deny government troops an obvious escape route if the Houthis continue closing the ring around the city.
The Houthis had already demonstrated that they did not need to physically occupy every junction to cripple the route. Earlier attacks damaged sections of the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication, forcing government forces onto increasingly limited alternatives. Fighting on the Taiz axis was already underway in the days before the house seizure: government troops firing on Houthi positions, and Houthi fighters claiming Jabal al-Habashi.
#Yemen 🇾🇪: A member of the PLC Forces opening fire against Ansar Allah fighters during the recent clashes on #Taiz Axis.
The PLC member is notably using a Belgian FN Minimi TR light machine gun — it was very likely obtained from UAE / Saudi-led Coalition stocks.
On September 10, we reported that the Houthis had seized the strategic port of Mocha as government forces abandoned positions along Yemen’s western coast, dramatically increasing Houthi leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb shipping chokepoint.
The following days brought additional Houthi gains around the Red Sea coast and Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi-backed formations struggled to stabilize the front. As we also noted, the group was accumulating actual coastal territory overlooking one of the most important maritime passages on the planet. By late September, the crisis had become serious enough that Yemen’s Saudi-backed leadership was publicly calling for broader mobilization.
On Monday reports are emerging that the Houthis may have lost Mocha, in what would be a hugely symbolic setback if accurate:
As we reported Saturday, Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces were preparing a force potentially exceeding 100,000 troops for a major counteroffensive aimed at retaking the Red Sea coast and securing Bab el-Mandeb.
Saudi officials had again sought direct American military involvement, according to reporting cited at the time, but Washington declined to provide the airstrikes Riyadh requested as cover for the ground campaign, while leaving open intelligence and other support.
On Sunday, Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi declared that the government was moving from preparation to action. We covered his announcement Sunday as he ordered military operations intended to retake Houthi-held territory across Yemen.
The Counterattack Has Begun
Reuters reported that Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, supported by Saudi air power, had attacked Houthi positions around the Dhubab district overlooking Bab el-Mandeb and claimed to have seized several key positions, including the Dhubab airstrip.
The Houthis disputed the government’s claims, and fighting remained underway. Later Monday, Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani claimed government forces had secured “effective control” of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which the Houthis called false, even as a government source said fighting continued at a military base near the strait. Video from the coast showed an Al Arabiya correspondent with government forces coming under what the outlet described as a Houthi ballistic-missile attack near the strait.
🇾🇪🇸🇦 | Un correspondant d’Al-Arabiya s’apprêtait à passer à l’antenne lorsque les Houthis ont lancé des missiles balistiques contre les forces du PLC avec lesquelles le journaliste est présent, près de Bab el-Mandeb.
Reuters described Taiz as increasingly encircled as Houthi forces pushed toward al-Mawasit even while government troops launched their coastal counterattack.
The Associated Press likewise reported Monday that the Saudi-led coalition had intensified its air campaign as government forces began a major offensive along the Red Sea coast following the Houthis’ latest territorial gains. The coalition said 100 fighter jets were backing the government’s forces.
And Now The President’s Residence?
On Monday, Xinhua cited Yemeni sources saying Houthi forces had entered the al-Aloum area of al-Mawasit district, where the family home of Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi is located.
Houthi-aligned media went further, claiming the residence itself had fallen. Video posted Monday shows fighters posing, praying, and celebrating outside a large multi-story building, with a Yemeni flag raised on the roof. @war_noir and Yemeni accounts identified the site as al-Alimi’s family house.
#Yemen / #SaudiArabia 🇾🇪🇸🇦: Ansar Allah (#Houthis) captured the house of the Saudi-backed “Rashad Al-Alimi” — President of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) !
Ansar Allah fighters appear to be armed with AK-103 pattern assault rifles and common Chinese Type 56-1 rifles.
Reuters has not verified the reported seizure of al-Alimi’s home, though UAE-based Erem News, citing local sources, reported Monday that Houthi fighters took the house, where his relatives live, without resistance.
Beyond Yemen
Yemen’s war – comparatively frozen since the UN-brokered truce of 2022 – has suddenly erupted across multiple fronts.
Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea and Suez route with the Indian Ocean. The Houthis have already demonstrated the ability to threaten commercial shipping using missiles, drones and unmanned vessels; territorial control around the chokepoint adds an entirely different dimension to that threat.
As we have has been documenting for months now, the Red Sea has also become increasingly important to Saudi energy exports as turmoil elsewhere in the region places pressure on alternative routes.
Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes, Umich, And FOMC Speakers Galore
Given the high stress and high alert in bond markets, which has pushed global 10Y yields to the highest level since 2022 and with Europe finding itself on the verge of another sovereign debt crisis…
… the main focus in the week ahead will be on central banks, with the minutes from the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the ECB’s account of its latest meeting on Thursday.
There is also a busy run of central-bank speakers, while the data calendar includes US ISM services today and the University of Michigan survey on Friday, a run of German activity data through the week, and Japanese wages on Wednesday.
In the US, the week begins in the shadow of Friday’s important September employment report. Headline payrolls rose just +29k, compared with +133k expected, while private payrolls increased +46k versus +127k expected. There were also 60k of downward revisions to headline payrolls over the previous two months, and average hourly earnings rose only +0.1% against +0.3% expected. Nevertheless, DB’s US economists think the details still point to a broadly stable labor market. The unemployment rate edged up only slightly to 4.175% from 4.141%, the broader U-6 rate fell a tenth to 7.6%, and participation rose two-tenths to 61.8%, its highest since May last year. Prime-age participation and the employment-to-population ratio also recovered further after their unusually large June declines. So although the headline payroll number was disappointing, the wider labor-market picture remains relatively resilient, particularly alongside recent ADP and jobless-claims readings, and DB’s economists continue to expect two further 25bp Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters. The market is pricing in another 86bps over the next 12 months, down from 100bps early last week but up from 70bps just after the payroll release. So lots of vol on Friday in rates and fixed income as we’ll see in the review of the week at the end.
The highly unsettled bond market makes the incoming US data and Fed communication particularly relevant. The first key release is the September ISM services index today, where DB economists expect the headline gauge to rise to 55.9 from 55.4 in August (it rose 55.8). Tomorrow brings the August trade balance, while Wednesday’s September FOMC minutes should provide more color on the near-term policy outlook.
Since the meeting, Fed communication has broadly reinforced the quarterly pace of rate hikes implied by the September SEP. Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams have both indicated a preference to take some time to assess incoming data before deciding on the next move, but several officials have continued to argue for additional tightening. So the minutes will be worth watching for how the broader Committee is framing the current tightening cycle and for its discussion of the neutral rate, where estimates shifted higher in the September SEP.
The rest of the US calendar is lighter. Thursday brings initial jobless claims and August wholesale trade sales, before attention turns to the preliminary October University of Michigan survey on Friday. Economists expect consumer sentiment to dip to 47.7, versus 48.1 in September. The survey may attract some extra attention with the November 3 midterm elections approaching. More broadly, DB’s US economists currently estimate Q3 real GDP growth at 3.3% annualized, and this week’s activity data will help refine that estimate.
Moving to Europe, the ECB publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday, alongside a packed speaker calendar. It’ll be interesting to see whether the French situation gets prominent mentions. Germany has a particularly busy run of activity data, with August factory orders tomorrow, industrial production on Wednesday and the trade balance on Thursday. France releases August industrial production tomorrow, while Italy follows on Friday. Sweden publishes September CPI on Wednesday and Norway on Friday.
In the UK, the BoE releases its Bank Liabilities and Credit Conditions surveys on Thursday, when Governor Bailey is also due to speak.
In Asia, Japan is the main focus. August labour cash earnings are released on Wednesday, with markets expecting same-sample total cash earnings growth to accelerate to 3.6% year-on-year from 2.9% in July. The September Economy Watchers survey follows on Thursday and August household spending on Friday. China’s September foreign-exchange reserves are also due on Wednesday.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday October 5
Data: US September ISM services, UK September new car registrations, official reserves changes, Japan September consumer confidence index, Italy September services PMI, Q2 deficit to GDP, Eurozone August PPI, Canada September services PMI
Central banks: ECB’s Nagel, Lane, Schnabel, Escriva, Kocher and Buch speak
Tuesday October 6
Data: US August trade balance, UK September construction PMI, Germany August factory orders, September construction PMI, France August industrial production, budget balance, Eurozone August retail sales, Canada August international merchandise trade
Central banks: Fed’s Williams speaks, ECB’s Zigman and Cipollone speak, BoJ’s Ueda speaks, BoE’s Mann speaks
Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
Wednesday October 7
Data: US September NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, August consumer credit, China September foreign reserves, Japan August laborcash earnings, leading index, coincident index, Germany August industrial production, France August current account balance, trade balance, Sweden September CPI
Central banks: FOMC minutes, Fed’s Logan speaks, ECB’s Cipollone and Vujcic speak
Earnings: Applied Digital
Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
Thursday October 8
Data: US August wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK September RICS house price balance, Japan September Economy Watchers survey, August BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany August trade balance
Central banks: ECB’s account of September meeting, Fed’s Musalem speaks, ECB’s Zigman and Lane speak, BoE’s Bailey, Greene and Lombardelli speak, BoE’s bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys
Earnings: PepsiCo, Fast Retailing, Tesco
Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)
Friday October 9
Data: US October University of Michigan survey, Japan August household spending, September machine tool orders, Italy August industrial production, Canada September labour force survey, Sweden August GDP indicator, Norway September CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Wunsch, Cipollone and Schnabel speak
Earnings: Delta Air Lines
Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the trade balance report on Tuesday. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials scheduled this week.
Monday, October 5
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, September final (consensus 58.7, last 58.7)
10:00 AM ISM services index, September (GS 55.4, consensus 55.0, last 55.4): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 55.4 in September, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.0pt to 54.1), offset by downward pressure from convergence toward the level implied by other services surveys (which the ISM index is above).
Tuesday, October 6
08:30 AM Trade balance, August (GS -$100.0bn, consensus -$102.0bn, last -$88.6bn)
09:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion with Caryn Seidman Becker, Chair and CEO of CLEAR. On September 29, Williams said, “with the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information.”
10:45 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on modernizing regulation and supervision at the Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On October 1, Bowman said, “After the Committee’s action in September, what we need to have is a better understanding about the underlying trends in the economy and how financial conditions are evolving going forward. So, I don’t currently see an urgent need for further action.”
01:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy and rural development at the Enid Regional Development Alliance luncheon. On October 1, Schmid said, “We have a very simple and crisp mandate, and that’s stable prices and full employment, and we just haven’t fulfilled our promise on the inflation side.”
07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a Q&A with former Bank of Mexico Governor Agustin Carstens. On October 1, Logan characterized the hike at the September meeting as “an important first step” in tightening policy but added, “Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals.”
Wednesday, October 7
02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, September 15-16 meeting: The September FOMC meeting was more hawkish than we expected. The dots showed a 16-2 majority projected at least one more hike this year, the median funds rate projection remained quite elevated through 2029, and the median neutral rate dot rose from 3.06% to 3.25%. The median SEP forecast showed substantially higher core PCE inflation in 2026 at 3.4% Q4/Q4 (vs. our current forecast of 3.0%) than now looks likely after last week’s methodological revisions. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic forecasts and views of the balance of risks at the time.
Thursday, October 8
04:30 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks; Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s İstanbul Economic Forum on the economic outlook. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 3 (GS 200k, consensus 200k, last 197k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 26 (consensus 1,695k, last 1,701k)
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, August final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%)
01:40 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy at a Bloomberg event. Q&A is expected. On September 21, Musalem said, “I think it’s crucial that policy puts a meaningful restraint on inflation,” but added that “earlier and incremental policy firming is better and less disruptive than later and larger and potentially more abrupt policy action.”
Friday, October 9
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (GS 47.0, consensus 47.7, last 48.1); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, October preliminary (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
04:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give brief remarks at a conference at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy. Speech text is expected. On September 22, President Collins said that she supported the decision to raise the fed funds rate at the September FOMC meeting, adding that “a somewhat more restrictive fed funds rate will help ensure that inflation durably returns to target.”
The decline of higher education into an ideological echo chamber has been widely discussed on this and other sites. Polls show record lows in the public trust in our universities and colleges as revenues decline and closures increase. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon responded to this meltdown with a common-sense call for greater transparency and tolerance.
The response from teacher unions has been nothing short of hysteria, led by Randi Weingarten at the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and Todd Wolfson at the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) – two of the most polarizing and political figures in teaching.
Secretary McMahon released a policy statement titled “National Call to Action to University Presidents and Governing Boards.” I encourage you to read it. Few Americans would disagree with the call for universities to post policies on how they can achieve greater intellectual diversity and openness in both admissions and hiring.
Not surprisingly, the AFT and AAUP went into a full cardiac arrest at the notion that universities would adopt such policies, let alone work to restore integrity and balance to higher education.
In a public letter, they denounced the policy as “galling.” The letter was a telling moment from the two organizations most responsible for the politicization of education.
The AFT and AAUP merged not long ago, destroying the AAUP’s traditional role as a neutral advocate for academic freedom. Under Wolfson, the organization has become blatantly political, even abandoning its long apolitical stance and issuing its first political endorsement this year. It was for radical Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.
I recently debated Todd Wolfson, President of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), over the loss of institutional neutrality in higher education. In the debate, I raised AAUP’s own abandonment of neutrality principles, which Wolfson acknowledged. While the viewers overwhelmingly supported a return to neutrality principles, Wolfson was undeterred.
The alliance with AFT and Weingarten is crushingly predictable. Weingarten personifies what I have called the “education cartel,” where teacher unions receive massive contracts and pension agreements from Democratic allies and then turn around and send massive political contributions to those same allies. The losers in this symbiotic relationship are of course the students and their families.
Weingarten is “credited” with turning the teachers’ union into an extension of the Democratic Party, often appearing at political rallies with her signature high-volume screeds:
As public support and revenue for both public education and higher education plummet, these figures are doubling down. The last thing that they want to see is the restoration of neutrality or balance. That is why a policy calling for such reforms is so anathema to them. These organizations are now political organizations that use their dues to pursue radical agendas.
I previously criticized the selection of Wolfson, who promised to make the AAUP more of a “fighting organization” for liberal causes. A Rutgers University anthropologist and former union leader, Wolfson is a political activist who doubled down on the ideological intolerance that now defines higher education.
As promised, the AAUP quickly became a more radical and activist organization. It adopted an anti-Israel boycott policy and unleashed attacks on Trump supporters as “fascists.” It has targeted civics centers as conservative breeding grounds. Trinity College Professor Isaac Kamola, the director of the AAUP’s Center for the Defense of Academic Freedom (CDAF), explains that they want to unleash “naming and shaming and discrediting and undermining the legitimacy” of such programs.
So, as trust in higher education hits new lows, the AAUP is accelerating that decline by doubling down on ideological bias and political activism. In reality, the AAUP represents only a small fraction of university professors but is often viewed as speaking for the teaching academy as a whole.
I have previously written about the similar liberal agenda of the American Bar Association despite plunging membership among lawyers. The ABA now represents just 17 percent of the bar.
The AAUP currently has roughly 50,000 members. There are an estimated 1.5 million university and college professors in the United States. Both the ABA and AAUP have become captive to the most ideological elements of their membership. That agenda has overwhelmed the original apolitical mission of these groups.
The loss of the AAUP as a neutral arbiter for academic freedom is tremendous. As Wolfson acknowledged in our debate, it was once a voice for neutrality, avoiding ideological and political causes. It was central to the articulation of neutrality principles and core academic freedom values. We need such an organization now more than ever.
Gonville and Caius College, one of Cambridge’s oldest foundations, is compelling its undergraduates to attend mandatory “inclusivity training” from the start of term.
The 90-minute sessions are being delivered by Stop Hate UK, a ‘charity’ activist organisation whose own materials tell students their free speech rights may be restricted, that “Islamophobia is a crime”, and that a facial expression can count as harm.
The order lands in the same university that spent the better part of two years investigating a philosopher for lawful speech, and in the same education system that has spent 2026 drilling children in white privilege, “racism requires power”, and compulsory hijabs.
Students in at least one college of Cambridge University will be forced to take mandatory ‘inclusivity training’ from the start of the new term next week, The Spectator has learned.
The 90-minute sessions are being delivered by Stop Hate UK. This group has published a video… pic.twitter.com/0zBC85IMFX
According to an email from the college’s education and tutorial office, seen by The Spectator, “attendance by undergraduate students is mandatory. It is important for the community as a whole to ensure a collective and unified response.” The course, due to run from the week commencing 5 October, will cover “demonstrating inclusive behaviours” and “recognition of a hate incident and its impact.”
A Caius spokesman told The Spectator the college had, “in consultation with student representatives,” committed to “hosting facilitated discussions around inclusivity to support the whole community at Caius.”
That is a softer description than the email students actually received. Mandatory attendance and a demand for a “collective and unified response” is not a discussion. It is an instruction.
BREAKING: Gonville & Caius, Cambridge has sent all undergraduates a notice, making 90-minute inclusivity sessions by ‘Stop Hate UK’ mandatory. The charity’s materials are woke, defective and misstate the law on protected characteristics and Islamophobia. https://t.co/3ihJt4HxOGhttps://t.co/brE8VGChs4pic.twitter.com/FruP9TpvBm
Stop Hate UK has published a video telling university students they must always display “positive attitudes” and “use respectful and kind language that will not cause harm or offence.”
Its syllabus for educational settings tells students that free speech should be “restricted by other duties, responsibilities, and legislative and contractual obligations,” and teaches them how “opinions, attitudes and prejudice are influenced and shaped by unconscious bias, media bias, fake news, etc.”
Andrew Gilligan, writing in The Spectator, put the obvious question: “How will students be required to ‘demonstrate’ that their behaviour is ‘inclusive?’” The charity’s own glossary supplies an answer of sorts. It speaks of “microaggressions” and “micro-inequities,” including “unintentional comments” and “unconscious messages” that “devalue and discourage people… conveyed through facial expressions, gestures, tone of voice, choice of words.”
Hate incidents, it says, can include “abusive gestures” or “malicious complaints about parking.”
The Free Speech Union called the scheme another mark of Cambridge’s intellectual decline, and of the way activist groups have been emboldened by the government’s non-statutory “anti-Muslim hostility” definition.
Cambridge students are being forced to undergo “inclusivity training”.
At least one Cambridge college is requiring students to attend training delivered by Stop Hate UK. The group has posted a video on social media saying students should always display “positive attitudes” and… pic.twitter.com/Mq6ZVgwrMm
The use of “hate incident” rather than “hate crime” is the tell. Behaviour well below the legal threshold is being placed inside a disciplinary frame. That sits awkwardly beside the Home Office’s own retreat. In March, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced that non-crime hate incidents would be scrapped, saying: “Under these reforms, forces will no longer be policing perfectly legal tweets.“
Caius is importing the logic the Home Secretary has just disowned, and making attendance compulsory.
If the syllabus is followed, one of the first things Cambridge students will be taught is “unconscious bias,” a concept a UK government report has already found wanting. That review concluded that “evidence that [unconscious bias] training content and techniques ‘works’ is lacking,” that such sessions “do not seem to be effective at improving diversity outcomes within workplaces,” and that there was “potential for back-firing effects.”
Most of the studies used to justify the training “did not use valid measures of behaviour change.”
The Committee for Academic Freedom has gone further, and found legal errors in the provider’s published materials. Age, a protected characteristic under section 4 of the Equality Act 2010, disappears from Stop Hate UK’s list. The statutory category of “gender reassignment” is replaced with “gender identity,” which, as CAF noted, “is not one of the nine protected characteristics named in the Act.”
The Supreme Court held in 2025, in For Women Scotland, that “man,” “woman” and “sex” in the Act carry biological meanings. Gender-critical belief is capable of protection under the Act, as Forstater established. Presenting a contested theory as settled law, then requiring students to attend, is not neutral instruction.
The Office for Students’ Regulatory Advice 24 allows universities to require training that advances positions a person may disagree with. It does not allow them to “require training or induction that imposes a requirement on the person completing the training actively to endorse any viewpoint or value-judgement.“
CAF has asked the obvious follow-up: whether Caius students will be expected to produce the promised “collective and unified response” by accepting the premises, for instance by labelling prescribed scenarios as microaggressions. The committee has invited students who are required to assent to anything to get in touch.
Stop Hate UK has claimed that “Islamophobia is a crime.” It is not. Britain has no blasphemy law. The same organisation has treated truthful reporting on the Muslim grooming gangs scandal as a source of hatred, writing that “this leads to the formation of Anti-Muslim attitudes, subconscious biases and hate.”
Its work on the subject cites the Centre for Media Monitoring, then part of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation successive governments have refused to engage with since 2009.
That is the same territory covered by Labour’s non-statutory definition of “anti-Muslim hostility,” which Communities Secretary Steve Reed sold as a tool “so we can take action to stop it,” and which the Free Speech Union’s Richard Holmes warned “risks hindering free speech under the law and legitimate criticism of Islamism.” Schools were urged to monitor and report it.
Cambridge has form on this. Philosopher Nathan Cofnas was hired under Cambridge’s 2020 free speech statement, then investigated for the better part of two years after publishing on hereditarianism and affirmative action.
The university eventually concluded that his views, “while seen by many as offensive, did not breach the law and did not contravene University regulations designed to uphold free speech.” By then the contract had run out.
Cofnas’s account of it was blunt: “I was betrayed the moment the administration determined that free speech was inconvenient for it.”
Caius has form of its own. In 2022 the master and a senior tutor wrote to students about a Helen Joyce event on gender-identity ideology, saying they did not “condone or endorse” views they considered “offensive, insulting and hateful,” and that the college would “continue to strive to make Caius an inclusive, diverse and welcoming home.” The new sessions are that email turned into a timetable.
The pattern below the university line is the same. In Sheffield, school materials have told children that “black people can be racially prejudiced towards a white person which is wrong and totally unacceptable. However, this is not racism. Racism is racial prejudice plus power. In the UK, white people hold the cultural power.”
In Barnet, a Labour council approved taxpayer funding for an Islamic primary that requires girls as young as seven to wear a hijab from Year 3. Stephen Evans of the National Secular Society called it “appalling that taxpayers are being asked to fund a school that forces girls as young as seven to wear the hijab.“
Back at the University level, in Northampton, freshers were pointed at an Advance HE module on “Whiteness, Privilege and Belonging.” The university said “inclusivity is one of our core values, and we make no apologies for that.” Philip Kiszely, on TalkTV, answered that “there is NO WHITE PRIVILEGE in higher education. The anti-racism system is the problem, which is overtly racist.”
A university that cannot tell the difference between a crime and a parking complaint, or between the Equality Act and a leftist activist group’s preferred version of it, is not protecting its students. It is training them to treat argument as harm and dissent as a hate incident.
The Office for Students now has a complaints scheme under the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act. Caius has just given its undergraduates a reason to use it.
