One month after ADP reported a dismal -29K private payrolls print for November, tied for the worst month since March 2023, and just in time to validate the Fed’s latest rate cut, moments ago ADP reported that in December, the US added 41K payrolls, which while a solid jump from last month’s -29K, missed consensus estimates of a +50K print. 

The breakdown showed continued weakness in manufacturing jobs, which shrank by 3K in December, offset by a 44K increase in Service jobs, despite another notable drop in Information (-12K) and Professional/Business services (-29K) jobs. Also notable is that all the weakness was in the Western region (read California) where 61K jobs were lost, while a breakdown of establishments by size saw solid hiring by small and medium companies, offset by a modest 2K increase amid Large companies.

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

There was more good news for the Trump admin which appears to have halted the sharp deterioration in the labor market: year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4% in December, unchanged from November while jobchangers saw their pay growth accelerate to 6.6% from 6.3%.

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Minnesota will feel an “increasing vise grip of financial penalties” to help make up for taxpayer dollars lost to fraud, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service, said Jan. 6.

His agency is auditing all 14 Medicaid programs that Minnesota flagged as vulnerable to fraud; that excludes 73 other Medicaid programs Minnesota runs.

The agency also will “claw back that money” from current Medicaid payments that were to be made to Minnesota, Oz told Fox News.

“This is a major problem for the state, because they’ve got to own the fact that they have been bilking the federal taxpayer [because of] their sloppy behavior for years,” Oz said.

The Epoch Times sent a message to Gov. Tim Walz’s office seeking comment but received no immediate reply.

During a news conference earlier in the day, Walz said he would refuse to step down from the governorship amid the fraud scandals, although he announced Jan. 5 that he was abandoning his reelection bid. His current term in office expires in January 2027.

The governor also criticized President Donald Trump for clamping down on Somalis. Amid increasing concerns over Somalis being accused of defrauding government programs, the president recently halted a deportation protection that had been afforded to Somali refugees for decades and also ramped up federal scrutiny.

A large percentage of Minnesota fraud defendants charged so far are of Somali descent, federal prosecutors have said.

“Somali immigrants who are minding their own business” are facing unfair federal actions, such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, Walz said. More than 2,000 federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security have surged to Minnesota as fraud concerns have swelled.

In addition, the federal government has cut off payments to child care centers in Minnesota and is requiring additional verification of children being served.

Oz said his agency has had difficulty tracking at least $500 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota. Available data makes it hard to figure out how it was billed and “where it went,” he said.

Officials asked Walz to provide a “corrective action plan” by the end of 2025, but the Walz administration responded late—on New Year’s Eve—with a plan that Oz called “insufficient.” As a result, the federal government is clamping down on Minnesota Medicaid payments, he said.

President Trump doesn’t want taxpayers across the nation footing the bill for Minnesota’s roughly 6 million residents, Oz said.

Officials see signs that government-program fraud or misuse may be higher in California than it is in Minnesota, Oz said, but he gave no figures. California, home to about 39 million people, is six and a half times more populous than Minnesota.

In the North Star State, an attitude known as “‘Minnesota Nice’ made it easy for them to make out like bandits,” Oz said. Minnesota has a longstanding tradition of providing generous social benefits without asking many questions, as The Epoch Times reported previously. That attitude—which may have made the state more susceptible to fraudsters—appears to reflect values of the Scandinavian immigrants who settled in Minnesota.

Beyond the burgeoning fraud scandals, Oz raised an additional concern arising from use of Medicaid. He recently learned that, under federal law, “if you sign someone up for Medicaid, you also give them the right to vote.”

“So, you’re building up a very partisan group of individuals. This is political patronage at the expense of Medicaid,” he said. “The criminal part here is not just a horrible waste and fraud and abuse of our federal … tax dollars, but you’re taking money from our most vulnerable citizens.”

“If you’re lying about the fact that you have Somalian kids pretending to be autistic, that takes services away from kids who truly have autism. … You’re penalizing our most vulnerable,” he said.

That’s why the Trump administration “will not tolerate this,” Oz said.

“We’re aggressively going after this fraud.”

Federal prosecutors have charged dozens of people, mostly Somalis, with defrauding programs intended to feed meals to children, provide children with therapy for autism, and provide affordable housing to the elderly and disabled. Dozens of defendants have already been convicted, and prosecutors expect additional suspects to be charged in those schemes and possibly others. Generally, the fraudsters filled out bogus paperwork, claiming to provide services that were never rendered, prosecutors said, then reaped payments for those services through federal programs.

US equity futures are weaker but off session lows, as markets pause ahead of a series of US labor and economic data. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% as global equity markets have run into some resistance after a strong start to 2026; Nasdaq futures dip 0.2% with TMT underperforming premarket, with most Mag7 and Semis names lower while Energy, Healthcare and Staples rallying pre-mkt. Bonds are bid with yields down 2-4bp as the curve flattens; the USD is unchanged. n commodities, Ags are the bright spot as we see some profit-taking in Metals and oil fell after Trump said Venezuela would turn over as many as 50 million barrels of crude to the US with sales proceeds are expected to be split between the two countries. Today’s US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms  -0.4%)

• Miners and royalty companies are down as gold and silver pull back with broader markets as traders look to upcoming US economic data later this week.
• AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) falls 6% after Scotiabank cut the recommendation on the satellite broadband company to sector underperform, saying it faces an “uphill battle” given the leadership position of Elon Musk’s Starlink.
• First Solar Inc. (FSLR) falls 4% after Jefferies cut its recommendation to hold from buy on concerns over tariffs and its valuation.
• Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) climbs 10% with the company to acquire Israeli startup Mentee Robotics in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $900 million, as the self-driving car system company expands its robotics capabilities.
• Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) rises 38% after the biotech announced positive interim data from an ongoing Phase 1 clinical study.
• Strategy (MSTR) climbs 4% after MSCI decided for now to keep digital asset treasury companies in its stock market indexes.
• StoneCo (STNE) falls 5% after after the Brazilian digital payments company said CEO Pedro Zinner will resign for personal reasons effective March 2026.
• Ventyx Biosciences Inc. (VTYX) is up 56% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Eli Lilly & Co. is in advanced talks to acquire the company for more than $1 billion to expand its work in immunology.

In corporate news, MSCI decided against excluding digital-asset treasury companies from its MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes in its February review, sending Strategy higher in extended trading. And an Amazon AI tool offered merchants’ products without their consent.

Stocks have been on a tear on optimism over solid earnings growth and inflation remaining sufficiently contained for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. That optimism has persisted despite a worsening geopolitical backdrop, including US actions in Venezuela, its threats of intervention elsewhere and rising tensions between China and Japan. But on Wednesday, the global rally stalled with geopolitical strains dampening the mood. Three big days of data are kicking off, with JOLTS job openings and ADP numbers due later. Memory chip shortages are in focus for AI bulls.

“Shifting trends create uncertainties that need to be priced into assets,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi-asset at Lombard Odier. “We are talking about a breathing period, with investors taking time to rethink how to deploy their concentrated equity investments in a deconcentrating world.”

Mining stocks were among the biggest decliners in premarket trading, with Newmont Corp., Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Barrick Mining Corp. all down 1% or more. Precious metals joined the broader pullback, with silver falling below $80 an ounce and gold breaking a three-day winning streak. Copper retreated from an all-time high. 

For AI bulls, memory chips are in focus after comments from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang about the need for memory and storage at CES on Tuesday. Stocks including Sandisk and Western Digital have surged in the past few days, and the rally is likely to continue: Samsung expects shortages to drive price hikes and DRAM specialist Nanya posted 445% year-on-year sales growth for December. 

Three key days of economic data kick off on Wednesday as investors track the Fed’s likely path for rates, with November jobs openings and ADP Research’s private-sector payrolls figures due. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services is expected to show a slight moderation in December activity. 

“Further declines in the JOLTS hiring and quit rates would add to signs of worsening labor demand,” wrote Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “If so, it would validate the 50 basis points of cuts priced into Fed funds futures over 2026 and weigh on the dollar.”

Ahead of a slate of data in the next few days, a record-sized block trade was placed in the federal funds futures market. The trade was struck in the January contracts for a size of 200,000, the largest ever as confirmed by CME Group. The motive behind the transaction is unclear. It could be related to an unwinding of existing bets or a wager that could benefit from a potential shift in market pricing for the Fed’s next rate decision.

Other developments rattling sentiment include comments from the White House that Trump is considering many ways of acquiring Greenland, and won’t rule out the use of military force. In Asia, China escalated a feud with Japan by announcing a probe on chipmaking material, while rare earth stocks surged on the back of new China-Japan export curbs.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed with energy stocks a drag as oil prices slide. Energy stocks lag after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would send oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the US, while utilities outperform. 

Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Italgas shares rise as much as 10% to hit a new record high after gas distribution operator Snam announced an offer of green bonds due 2031 in an aggregate notional amount of €500m, exchangeable for existing ordinary shares of Italgas.
• Thyssenkrupp shares gain as much as 5.3%, leading defense stocks higher after the Trump administration and Ukraine’s allies moved toward an agreement to offer security guarantees long sought by Kyiv.
• ArcelorMittal shares climb as much as 3.5% to the highest level in nearly 14 years after Morgan Stanley installed the stock as top pick in Europe’s steel sector.
• Atlas Copco shares rise as much as 9% to the highest level since February after Bernstein upgrades on expectations that earnings have bottomed.
• InPost shares retreat as much as 8.3%, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% gain triggered by the parcel locker operator’s announcement of a takeover proposal.
• Fresnillo shares drop as much as 4.1%, leading precious metal miners lower as gold prices decline.
• NatWest shares fall as much as 3% after they are downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays.
• Equinor shares slip as much as 3.8% as European oil stocks track crude prices downwards after Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
• Kingspan shares drop as much as 5.4% after the company said it won’t pursue an IPO of Advnsys and will continue to report the data center materials unit as a wholly owned and broadly distinct reporting segment.
• Redcare Pharmacy shares plunge as much as 9.7%, the most since August, after the company posted fourth-quarter sales that came in below expectations due to weakness in over-the-counter products.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined, as escalating trade tensions between China and Japan damped investor sentiment following the recent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, poised to snap a four-day advance. Technology megacaps including TSMC and Tencent were among the biggest drags, while Alibaba dropped on fresh concerns over Beijing regulations. A key gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong led losses, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan also fell. China imposed controls on exports to Japan with potential military uses, intensifying a standoff between Asia’s top economies in a dispute related to Taiwan. Automakers were the biggest contributor to losses in Japan on the news. The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks. The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October.

In rates, treasury futures hold gains accumulated during London morning amid bigger rallies in European bond markets spurred in part by weak German retail sales data for November. US yields richer by 1bp-4bp across a flatter yield curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads respectively 3bp and 2bp tighter; 10-year near 4.145% is about 3bp richer by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 4.5bp. European government bonds advance for a third day, with buying more pronounced at the longer end of the curve. German 10-year yields fall 4 bps to a one-month low after weak economic data prompted traders to increase their bets on interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Gilts outperform, with UK 10-year borrowing costs sliding 7 bps. European borrowers brought a record number of tranches to the market on Wednesday and are set to raise at least €38.1 billion ($44.5 billion), a number that’s likely to increase over the course of the day. Issuance in the US investment-grade bond market topped $72 billion in the first two days of the week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Focal points of US session include December ADP employment change and ISM services gauge and November JOLTs job openings. 

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.5% to $56.80 a barrel after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels to the US. West Texas Intermediate traded near $57 a barrel. Investors were also keeping tabs on the primary bond market as the first week of 2026 saw a surge in global issuance, signaling strong confidence despite heightened geopolitical risks. Spot silver falls 2% and back below $80/oz. Gold also drops. Bitcoin is down 1.3% near $92,000.

Today’s US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm. Albertsons is scheduled to report results before the market open. Earnings from Jefferies and Costco December sales are due later in the day.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed, DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.14%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.69
• euro little changed at $1.1692
• WTI crude -0.9% at $56.59/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Marco Rubio has told lawmakers that President Trump plans to buy Greenland rather than invade it, while Trump has asked aids to give him an updated plan for acquiring the territory. NYT 
• Trump will meet with oil company chief executives Friday at the White House to discuss plans for them to enter Venezuela and drill. Trump announced that Venezuela would relinquish 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current market price. BBG 
• China’s Foreign Ministry said China’s legitimate rights and interest in Venezuela must be protected, in regards to US President Trump’s statement on Venezuela oil.
• The US for the first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine’s allies in vowing to provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments to support the country if Russia attacks again. RTRS 
• Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are teaming up on a bid to buy the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil. FT 
• China launched an anti-dumping probe into Japan’s chipmaking material dichlorosilane, deepening trade tensions after Beijing imposed export curbs — potentially affecting over 40% of its shipments to the country. Tokyo called the measures unacceptable. BBG 
• AI “fatigue” is driving cash into shares of S&P 500 companies that aren’t the Magnificent 7, especially those that would benefit most if an expected uptick in economic growth materializes. BBG
• old is neck and neck with Treasuries to become the biggest reserve asset for foreign governments, driven by a year of explosive price gains and aggressive central bank buying. Barron’s 
• Eurozone CPI for Dec was inline on the headline at +2% (down from +2.1% in Nov) while core cooled to +2.3% (vs. the Street +2.4% and down from +2.4% in Nov). BBG 
• Waner Bros. Discovery Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders reject amended Paramount tender offer, saying the offer remains ‘Inadequate.’ BBG 
• Goldman forecast MSCI China and CSI300 to appreciate 20% and 12% in 2026, after key benchmarks gained 20%-30% in the past year mainly on multiple expansion. 

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s Commerce Ministry announces an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports; investigation begins on Jan 7 and will end a year later, but can be extended by 6 months if needed.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China curbs targeting only Japan are regrettable, adds we’ll consider necessary response as we assess China’s export curb details.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed as momentum began to wane despite the fresh record levels on Wall Street. ASX 200 marginally gained amid  strength in tech and defensives, while participants also digested monthly inflation data, which printed softer-than-expected but remained sticky. Nikkei 225 lagged amid Japan’s frictions with China after the latter imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in energy names and tech stocks following a decline in oil prices, and with platform names pressured by China announcing management measures for online platforms. Meanwhile, the mainland bourses kept afloat for most of the session but eventually faltered as the mood deteriorated and were also not helped by a substantial net liquidity drain of around CNY 500bln in the PBoC’s open market operations.

Top Asian News

• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said Asia-Pacific ocean freight markets enter 2026 with cautious optimism; intra-Asia volumes are gaining momentum, and supply chain planning is increasingly focused on agility, regional connectivity, and early Chinese NY preparations.
• South Korea’s President Lee said had a serious talk with China regarding supply chains and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
• Baidu’s (9888 HK) AI chip arm Kunlunxin aims to raise up to USD 2bln in Hong Kong IPO, according to Bloomberg citing sources. – Co. has picked China International Capital Corp., Citic Securities Co. and Huatai Securities, while China Securities International is also working on the potential offering.
• UMC (2303 TT) Dec (TWD): Revenue 19.3bln (prev. 19.0bln Y/Y).
• China’s market regulator and cyberspace authorities unveiled two separate documents on Wednesday to further regulate the country’s livestreaming e-commerce sector and online trading platforms, Xinhua reported.
• China announces management measures for online platforms and China’s market regulator said online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition. Online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition.

European bourses are mixed. The FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is under pressure, hit by losses across underlying commodity prices whilst the DAX 40 (+0.6%) posts gains by around half a percent. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Utilities holds towards the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction & Materials, and Real Estate. To the downside, Energy is the laggard, in-fitting with pressure seen across crude benchmarks whilst Luxury downside weighs on Consumer Products & Services.

Top European News

• Italian PM Meloni plans overhaul of Italy’s voting system to aid re-election bid, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is flat intraday but resides in a current 98.497-98.690 parameter as traders await key US labour market data due ahead of Friday’s official employment situation report; ADP’s gauge of nonfarm employment is expected to print 49K in December vs -32K in November. JOLTS job openings are expected to fall to 7.61mln in November (prev. 7.67mln in October); in the October report, the quits rate fell to 1.8% from 2.0%, while the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.6%. Elsewhere, the ISM Services PMI is seen inching down a little in December. Currently, the index is well within Monday’s 98.25-98.86 range, and on either side of its 100 DMA (98.59).
• EUR/USD was initially pressured, continuing the downside seen in the prior session. Though the downside did reverse following the EZ HICP release, which printed in-line with expectations, seemingly as bets for a cooler-than-expected print following the German series unwind. Currently just shy of the 1.1700 mark, after making a peak of 1.1702 overnight.
• AUD/USD is choppy following overnight outperformance given softer-than-expected monthly inflation, but as the headline figure and the core reading remain sticky and above the RBA’s 2-3% target.
• USD/JPY found resistance at yesterday’s high and remains within that session’s 156.30-156.80 parameter. Other G10s are largely uneventful and follow the choppy price action.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0187 vs exp. 6.9896 (Prev. 7.0173).

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed income. Initial gains were a familiar ~ 5 and ~ 20 ticks for USTs and Bunds, respectively.
• During the early European morning, the benchmarks picked up further, to highs of 112-17+ and 128.19, firmer by 7+ and 51 ticks at most, respectively. A move that occurred in relatively limited newsflow, but as the European risk tone soured. A deterioration that extended on the mixed/downbeat APAC performance, as the region failed to sustain record Wall St. levels.
• EZ HICP Flash figures for December printed in-line with expectations (though the core figures were a touch short of expectations). Some pressure was seen in Bunds following the release, as participants unwound bets for a cooler print after the prelim. German inflation series. Also, no move to Construction PMIs this morning or a dire set of German retail data. However, on the latter, the implications have perhaps been limited given the marked upward revision to the prior (October) series.
• Finally for Bunds, around five ticks of pressure were seen following the tepid results for the new 2036 Bund line. Currently trading at 128.20.
• Gilts acknowledged the bullish action in peers and opened higher by 29 ticks at 92.54 before extending to a 91.84 peak and are currently leading the fixed space. Thereafter an above 3x b/c to a 5yr Gilt auction spurred some very modest upside in Gilts, taking UK paper above the 92.00 mark.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt; b/c 3.50x (prev. 3.23x), average yield 3.980% (prev. 4.093%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Germany sells EUR 4.542bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2036 Bund; b/c 1.29x, average yield 2.83%, retention 24.3%

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures fell after Washington moved to tighten control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Trump saying Venezuela would hand over up to 30-50mln bbls of crude to the US to be sold at market prices, with proceeds managed by the President for the benefit of both countries. Nat Gas on the other hand rebounds following yesterday’s slump cited by some to a warmer-than-expected winter.
• Gold eased as focus shifted away from geopolitical risk toward upcoming US data releases, with bullion finding resistance at USD 4,500/oz and now trading near the bottom end of a USD 4,441.44-4,500/oz after a more than 4% rally across the prior three sessions. Meanwhile, Chinese gold reserves data this morning showed rising reserves for a 14th consecutive month. Spot silver fell back under USD 80/oz after peaking at USD 82.77/oz earlier.
• 3M LME copper prices are choppy but holding above the USD 13k/t mark and not far off record highs, with Friday also in focus amid a potential SCOTUS ruling on the Trump tariffs.
• Chevron (CVX) , ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will meet with US President Trump on Friday, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump posted “I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America”. Full post “I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +4.9mln (exp. +2.1mln), Gasoline +4.4mln (exp. +3.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia’s Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia’s Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Iran’s president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters”, Sky News Arabia reported.
• “Iran’s army chief: Trump’s and Netanyahu’s statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond”, Sky News Arabia reported.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.

Geopolitics: Others

• “Iran’s president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters”, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Yemeni Saudi-backed government forces reportedly advance towards Aden.
• “Iran’s army chief: Trump’s and Netanyahu’s statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond”, Sky News Arabia reported.
• China’s Foreign Ministry accused the US of bullying and using brazen force, in regards to Venezuela.
• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• South Korea President Lee said China may move structure in the sea between the two countries.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.
• China’s Taiwan Affairs Office named two people to be punished for Taiwan independence activities, while it stated the people as well as their relatives are banned from entering the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump’s administration warns Venezuela’s Interior Minister to cooperate or face potential targeting, according to sources.
• US said military is among ‘options’ to acquire Greenland and annexation of semi-autonomous territory from Denmark is ‘national security priority’, according to FT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers that US President Trump aims to buy Greenland, and downplayed military action, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15 am: Dec ADP Employment Change, est. 50k, prior -32k
• 10:00 am: Dec ISM Services Index, est. 52.2, prior 52.6
• 10:00 am: Nov JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7647.5k, prior 7670k
• 10:00 am: Oct Factory Orders, est. -1.19%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.2%, prior -2.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The strong risk rally of 2026 showed no sign of relenting yesterday, as markets continued to shrug off geopolitical developments. That meant both the S&P 500 (+0.62%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.58%) advanced to new record highs. Moreover in Europe, there was also a decent bond rally thanks to some soft inflation numbers, raising hopes that the ECB’s next move might still be a cut rather than a hike, particularly after the final composite PMIs were a bit weaker than expected. So it was a strong day for the most part, whilst Brent crude oil prices (-1.72%) reversed Monday’s rise as fears of disruption to oil flows from Venezuela eased. Oil is down a similar amount again overnight as Trump has announced that 30-50m barrels will be delivered to the US from Venezuela and most Asia equities have finally paused for breath this morning, trading lower.

In terms of the latest in Venezuela itself, there weren’t really any major developments in the last 24 hours. But multiple press outlets reported that the Venezuelan regime was cracking down on dissent as they sought to consolidate their power after Maduro’s removal. So with the regime still in power, it remains unclear exactly how the US would be involved with the country’s administration over the short-to-medium term, although Trump previously said on Sunday that “If they don’t behave, we will do a second strike”. In the meantime, Venezuela’s assets continued to recover yesterday, with the 2027 bond up another +2.22% to 43.5 cents on the dollar. However, several US energy companies which outperformed on Monday began to struggle again, including Chevron (-4.46%), SLB (-0.39%) and Halliburton (-3.41%), despite the broader move higher in US equities.

Those declines for the oil majors came as Brent crude (-1.72%) erased Monday’s +1.65% rise amid headlines suggesting that the US was keen to avoid disruption to Venezuela’s oil exports. Reuters reported that Venezuela was in talks to export oil to the US while Bloomberg reported that Chevron had booked extra tankers to Venezuelan ports this month, so potentially mitigating the decline in oil shipments from the country amid the recent US naval blockade. Indeed, Brent is trading another -1.65% lower this morning after Trump said last night that Venezuela would turn over “between 30 and 50 MILLION barrels” of oil to the US. There wasn’t much extra detail but this sort of volume is around 30-50 days of pre-US blockade production so this could be the oil that has been sitting around and probably doesn’t mark the start of a trend.  

Whilst investors were focused on Venezuela, there were also fresh headlines on Greenland, as several European leaders issued a statement defending its sovereignty. The group included the leaders of Denmark, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland and Spain, who said that “It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” It also said that Arctic security must “be achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. These are universal principles, and we will not stop defending them.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the White House said in a statement to the press that Trump and his advisers were “discussing a range of options” to acquire Greenland and that use of the military “is always an option”.   

For markets at least, there was no sign that all this news was having a particularly large impact, and the recent strength in European assets showed no sign of relenting. In fact, there was a fresh round of optimism after the latest European inflation numbers were weaker than expected, which dampened fears about a potential hawkish pivot from the ECB this year. That came as the German CPI reading fell to +2.0% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst the French reading was in line with expectations at +0.7%. So that cemented expectations that the Euro Area-wide print today might come in on the softer side.  

Those inflation prints and the prospect of a more dovish ECB helped to bring down yields across Europe, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.8bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-3.5bps) all moving lower. Moreover, that trend got further momentum after the final PMI readings were on the weaker side, with the final composite PMI for the Euro Area revised down four-tenths from the flash print to 51.5. That backdrop helped to support equities too, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%), the FTSE 100 (+1.18%) and the DAX (+0.09%) all at record highs.   

Over in the US, the equity rally also proceeded, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) exceeding the record high it posted on Christmas Eve. Interestingly, that came in spite of ongoing weakness among the tech mega caps, with the Mag 7 (-0.36%) dragging on the broader index. There were mixed moves within the Mag-7 amid headlines from the CES trade show, with Tesla (-4.14%) leading on the downside after Nvidia (-0.47%) announced plans for a self-driving AI the previous evening. But US equities saw broad gains otherwise, with three-quarters of the S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, while the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.37%) extended its YTD gain to +4.07%. An impressive performance with just three trading days behind us.
In the meantime, US Treasuries lost ground, unlike their counterparts in Europe, with the 2yr yield (+1.2bps) up to 3.46%, whilst the 10yr yield (+1.2bps) reached 4.17%. We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, although there wasn’t much that shone light on the future policy path. For instance, Governor Miran said “I think that well over 100 basis points of cuts are going to be justified this year.” But that was in line with his previous dovishness, so markets weren’t reactive. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “policy will require finely tuned judgments balancing progress on each side of our mandate”, and that it was “a delicate balance”.  

The very strong rally in Asian equities so far this year has slightly reversed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.96%) and Hang Seng (-1.21%) leading the losses. The KOSPI (-0.21%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.08%) are also lower but with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.15%) just about defying the regional trend, following a slowdown in Australia’s core inflation in November, which supports the argument for the RBA to maintain current interest rates (details below). S&P 500 (-0.04%) and Nasdaq futures (-0.12%) are trading just below the flat line.

Returning to Australia, CPI increased by +3.4% y/y in November, down from +3.8% in October and below market expectations of +3.7%. On a m/m basis, the headline CPI remained unchanged at 0.0%. The trimmed mean CPI, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, slowed to 3.2% y/y from +3.3%, aligning broadly with expectations. On a monthly basis, trimmed mean inflation rose by +0.3%, remaining consistent with October’s figures. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (+0.33%) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading at 0.6760 against the US dollar, despite the easing of inflation in Australia during November. Additionally, yields on Australia’s 10-year government bonds are -2.9bps lower, currently trading at 4.76% as I write this.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for December, German unemployment for December, whilst in the US there’s the ISM services index for December, JOLTS job openings for November, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Pereira.

Longi Green Energy Technology Co. is preparing a major shift in how it makes solar cells, moving away from heavy reliance on silver and toward lower-cost base metals as the industry grapples with rising material prices and shrinking margins, according to Bloomberg.

The company said it will begin large-scale production using base metals in the second quarter, a step it expects will “further lower the costs of solar modules,” according to a regulatory filing on Monday.

The decision comes as solar manufacturers — the largest industrial users of silver — face intense competition and oversupply, making the recent surge in silver prices especially painful.

Investor demand tied to geopolitical uncertainty and US interest-rate cuts has driven prices sharply higher, turning silver into the most expensive component of solar cell production.

Bloomberg notes that silver prices almost tripled last year and climbed above $84 an ounce in late May. At October’s roughly $50-per-ounce level, the metal made up more than 17% of the cost of solar modules, compared with just 3% in 2023, data from BloombergNEF show.

Longi is not alone.

Jinko Solar Co. expects to roll out base-metal panels at scale this year, while Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co. has already launched commercial production of silver-free cells with 6.5 gigawatts of initial capacity.

Longi’s use of back-contact solar cells gives it more flexibility to replace silver than producers using the dominant TOPCon technology, though the company has said the transition still brings challenges.

BloombergNEF notes that copper and other alternatives raise assembly costs and create reliability concerns, particularly for TOPCon cells, whose manufacturing process makes substitution difficult.

Even with those hurdles, demand for silver from the solar industry is forecast to drop 7% next year, even as global solar installations climb about 15%, according to BNEF.

Authored by Anthony Watts via WattsUpWithThat.com,

In November 2006, when I launched Watts Up With That?, the idea was simple enough: look at the data, check the instruments, and ask whether the conclusions being drawn actually followed from the evidence. It was never intended as a career in heresy. It was, at the time, a fairly normal scientific impulse steeped in curiosity.

Nearly twenty years later, that impulse requires a helmet.

As WUWT approaches its twentieth anniversary in 2026, it’s worth reflecting on how climate change went from being a hypothesis—one among many competing explanations for observed changes—to a full-fledged belief system, complete with sacred texts (IPCC reports), approved language, and the occasional excommunication.

The climate, meanwhile, has been far less dramatic.

2006–2008: When Thermometers Were Still Just Thermometers

Back in the mid-2000s, climate science still resembled…well, science. There were disagreements. There were debates. People argued about cloud feedbacks, solar influences, ocean cycles, and the reliability of historical temperature records without being accused of crimes against humanity.

Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth arrived in 2006 like a traveling roadshow of impending doom. Polar bears were stranded, seas were rising, and hurricanes were apparently lining up in formation. It was slick, emotional, and heavy on graphs that only went in one direction.

At the same time, a curious thing was happening on the ground. Actual thermometers—those stubbornly analog devices—were being placed next to heat sources, asphalt, and buildings. So WUWT did something radical: we took pictures.

This turned out to be surprisingly controversial, heretical even.

Apparently, photographing a thermometer next to an air conditioning exhaust was not “constructive engagement.” Who knew?

2009: Climategate—The Sound of Trust Hitting the Floor

Then came Climategate.

The emails were not hacked in the Hollywood sense; they were released, read, and promptly explained away. What they showed was not a grand conspiracy, but something far more human: groupthink, defensiveness, and an alarming willingness to manage perception instead of data.

“Hide the decline” entered the public lexicon, and suddenly climate scientists were explaining that it didn’t mean what it sounded like it meant. Which, coincidentally, is almost never a good sign.

For a brief moment, it looked like climate science might undergo a badly needed course correction. Transparency! Open data! Robust debate!

Instead, we got faux inquiries that investigated themselves and found themselves innocent.

Lesson learned: the problem was not the behavior—it was that outsiders noticed.

2010–2014: The Pause That Wasn’t There (Until It Was)

The next few years delivered an unexpected plot twist: the planet declined to follow the script.

Global temperatures flattened. Models predicted steady warming; observations did not comply. This became known as the “pause,” then the “hiatus,” then—after enough editorials—the “thing that never happened and you’re not allowed to mention.”

This was a golden age for climate creativity. Heat was hiding in the deep oceans, where it could not be measured but could still be blamed. Aerosols became the Swiss Army knife of explanations. Data adjustments proliferated.

When observations disagreed with models, the models were not questioned. The observations were “corrected.”

It was around this time that many of us realized the hierarchy had flipped. Models were now reality. Reality was negotiable.

2015: Paris—Promises, Promises

The Paris Agreement was hailed as a turning point. World leaders gathered to save the planet using pledges that were voluntary, unenforceable, and carefully worded to sound impressive while committing to very little.

It was a triumph of political theater.

No one asked how intermittent energy would power industrial societies. No one discussed grid stability. No one mentioned energy poverty. Those details were, apparently, unhelpful.

From this point on, climate policy became less about outcomes and more about optics. If emissions went up, the solution was more ambition. If costs rose, the solution was more commitment. Failure was proof that we simply hadn’t believed hard enough.

2018–2019: The Emergency Button Gets Stuck

Somewhere around 2018, the word “emergency” became mandatory.

We were told we had twelve years to save the planet. Then ten. Then five. The deadline kept moving, but always closer—like a cosmic treadmill.

Children were encouraged to panic. Adults were scolded for driving cars. Weather was promoted from background noise to moral indictment.

A heatwave? Climate change.
A flood? Climate change.
A cold snap? Climate change “disrupting the jet stream.”

Heads I win, tails you deny science.

2020–2022: When Everything Was an Emergency

The pandemic years revealed just how easily societies could be governed by emergency decree. Climate activism took careful notes.

Lockdowns briefly reduced emissions, proving once and for all that modern civilization could, in fact, be shut down—at great human cost—for minimal climatic benefit.

Energy policies, however, continued unabated. Reliable baseload was dismantled. Wind and solar were celebrated for theoretical capacity rather than actual performance.

When grids faltered and prices soared, we were told this was further proof of the need to double down.

It was around this time that “trust the science” quietly came to mean “do not ask questions.”

2023–2026: The Era of Unquestionable Certainty

Now, at the twenty-year mark, the climate narrative is polished, institutionalized, and remarkably immune to evidence.

Sea level rise continues at rates best appreciated with tide gauges and patience. Extreme weather remains stubbornly inconsistent with apocalyptic claims. Crop yields rise. Human adaptability refuses to cooperate with disaster models.

But none of that matters much anymore.

The climate scare no longer depends on predictions coming true—only on maintaining urgency. Models still overestimate warming, but the solution is always the same: adjust, attribute, and assert.

Dissent is not debated; it is diagnosed.

Twenty Years Later

After two decades of watching this unfold, I’ve learned that the most remarkable thing about the climate scare is not how much the climate has changed—but how much the rules of discussion have.

• In 2006, skepticism was part of science.
• In 2016, it is treated as a character flaw.
• In 2026, it seems like people might be listening to us.

WUWT has endured because it kept doing the unfashionable thing: looking at the data, pointing out inconsistencies, and occasionally raising an eyebrow when the emperor’s new model ran a little warm.

The climate will continue to change. It always has. The real question is whether society can rediscover the value of skepticism before policy built on perpetual emergency does lasting damage.

And if not—well, at least the models will still be very confident. /sarc

By the way, if you’ve not seen it yet, check out our newly updated Failed Climate Predictions Timeline.

Tuesday’s major Ukraine summit of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ in Paris on Tuesday, where dozens of European leaders were hosted by President Emmanuel Macron, is still desperately trying to salvage strong security guarantees for Kiev as a central part of any future peace deal to end the war with Russia.

Macron vowed that Ukraine’s allies and military backers would “make concrete commitments” at the meeting “to protect Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace.” The Kremlin is going to see this as yet another exercise in flirting with Russia’s red lines – especially the idea of NATO ‘Article 5-style’ security guarantees.

Reportedly the United States has already agreed to lead a “ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism” with European participation assuming a deal can be reached – based on a draft statement seen by the AFP.

Washington is also said to b  willing “support” a European-led multinational force, which would necessitate American boots on the ground “in case” of any new future attack by Russia post-truce deal.

But one never really knows when it comes to President Trump – or what he’s ultimately willing to finally sign on to, also at a moment of ongoing friction with the Zelensky government.

It must be recalled that he and his admin officials have been quite vocal time and again about never committing American troops to Ukraine in the context of a fight with nuclear-armed Russia.

Trump himself has been strident on this point, going back even to the early campaign trail. Will he flip? The White House, if it does sign onto this fundamentally European plan or an alteration to the 20-points, is more likely to spin this as “not actually boots on the ground” to satisfy skeptics among the MAGA base.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American envoys are there in Paris, along with what’s said to be an unprecedented amount of other heads of state and defense officials. 

🚨 Who is meeting in Paris today: A total of 40 representatives from different countries and international organizations.

28 country leaders, including Ukraine, will attend, along with leaders of 4 international organizations: the European Council, the European Commission,… pic.twitter.com/aLPH0eySBQ

— Kateryna Lisunova (@KaterynaLis) January 6, 2026

Reading the room, this meeting seems much more about Europe taking the reins of the peace deal away from Washington. Just look at the rhetoric… which Moscow will simply receive as dead on arrival:

Downing street has said that Britain will “deploy forces to Ukraine in event of a peace deal.” In a statement released after Starmer signed the “declaration of intent” earlier, his office says:

This is a declaration of intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in event of a peace deal. This is a vital part of our iron cast commitment to stand with Ukraine for the long term.

The ‘Multinational Force for Ukraine’ will act as a reassurance force to bolster security guarantees and Ukraine’s ability to return to peace and stability by supporting the regeneration of Ukraine’s own forces.

The signing of the declaration paves the way for the legal framework to be established for French and UK forces to operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine’s skies and seas and building an armed forces fit for the future.

In today’s discussions we have also gone into greater detail about the mechanics of the deployment of the force on the ground.

Alongside our plans for a coordination cell, post-ceasefire the UK and France will also establish ‘military hubs’ across Ukraine to enable the deployment and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s defensive needs.”

Starmer further said, “Putin is not willing to show peace. We will keep the pressure up on Russia, including further measures on oil trades and shadow fleet operators supporting Russia.” And of course this was seconded by all present.

Some interesting long lost faces popped up in Paris…

After all the corruption-related turmoil and reshuffles inside Zelensky’s government, Rada majority leader David Arakhamia surfaces at the meeting of the pro-Ukraine coalition in Paris.

Formerly Ukraine’s top Instanbul negotiator and reputedly a moderate, Arakhamia is known for… pic.twitter.com/9rNm8uj8XQ

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) January 6, 2026

Meanwhile President Putin is not going to care about the “mechanics” or technical aspects of what such a deployment would look like. He will see it as but a recipe for what his forces have been fighting against all along: NATO soldiers and infrastructure right along border of the Russian Federation… potentially provoking events which could easily lead to WW3.

Authored by Michael Tomlinson via The Brownstone Institute,

Evidence continues to mount indicating that the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic was counterproductive and harmful, yet mainstream opinion continues to proclaim that it was a triumph.

This is based on scientific papers that often manipulate the data or present it selectively.

Exhibit 1: Cohort study of cardiovascular safety of different Covid-19 vaccination doses among 46 million adults in England by Ip et al. The authors conclude that ‘the incidence of common arterial thrombotic events (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) was generally lower after each vaccine dose, brand and combination’ and ‘the incidence of common venous thrombotic events (mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep venous thrombosis) was lower after vaccination.’ 

This seems to be a straightforward outcome, based on a most inclusive sample – the whole population of England. However, Table 2 shows incidence rates of cardiovascular events were substantially higher (nearly double for arterial events) after the first dose of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, compared to no vaccination:

This contradicts the text: ‘The incidence of thrombotic and cardiovascular complications was generally lower after each dose of each vaccine brand.’ Of course, ‘generally’ is a weasel word. It means that the incidence of complications after each dose was lower except where it was higher. Incidence rates for the Moderna vaccine were indeed much lower at least in the medium term (up to 26 weeks) but rates for AstraZeneca and Pfizer were much higher.

Incidence rates after the second dose were indeed ‘generally’ lower in the tables. But Supplementary Table 3 reveals that the definition of ‘no vaccination’ for Dose 2 in fact means the interval between a first dose and a second dose. The largest increases in incidence rates are for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca Dose 1 vaccination groups, the only cohorts compared with a true vaccination naïve control group.

Supplementary Table 4 shows substantial increases in incidence rates for Dose 1 broken down for all eleven cardiac events measured (and two composites).

Returning to Table 2, the vaccinated group and the unvaccinated groups have comparable numbers of events, but the vaccinated groups are calculated with reference to approximately half the number of person years. If we apply the incidence rates to the numbers of people in each group (at the top of Table 1), we can calculate vaccination with the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines brought about in the region of 91,000 additional serious cardiac events (euphemistically described as ‘complications’) compared to the no vaccination group in a little over one year. On the other hand, the Moderna group experienced over 34,000 fewer events compared with the no vaccination group, leading to an overall balance of around 56,000 additional events. How many of the individuals who had additional heart attacks, strokes, and thromboses subsequently died? The results are shocking, but after further processing we are told they are ‘reassuring.’

To obscure the alarming results, the text relies not on the straight incidence rates but on hazard ratios ‘adjusting for a wide range of potential confounding factors.’

It is not apparent why any adjustment was necessary. On the one hand, ‘There were few differences between subgroups defined by demographic and clinical characteristics,’ and on the other hand, ‘we addressed potential confounding by adjusting for a wide range of demographic factors and prior diagnoses.’ Were there significant differences in demographics or weren’t there? 

Further on, we are told that ‘Subgroup analyses by age group, ethnic group, previous history of the event of interest and sex were conducted’ and outcomes ‘were generally similar across subgroups.’ What were the potentially confounding factors that had to be adjusted for if not these? How could an incidence rate of approximately 1.9 for the Pfizer Dose 1 arterial events be adjusted to a hazard ratio of 0.9? 

If an adjustment leads to the reversal of findings of this magnitude, then it must be done transparently and with full substantiation. Without further explanation, the adjustment seems extraordinary and unjustifiable if outcomes were similar across subgroups and no differentiating factor is identified. They are statistical artefacts of low credibility and should not be used to guide policy. 

This is a well-established academic trope – something that seems on the face of it to be black is not really black, but when ‘adjusted’ in an undisclosed and untransparent way has many white characteristics. 

Table 2 compares the ‘primary course’ rates with the ‘after booster vaccination’ rates, where the Pfizer incidence rates are again higher for this last dose in the series, compounding the primary dose increase. I would have thought the authors should have commented on this, given that it contradicts the conclusions of the paper. This rise in the rate for vaccinated individuals with subsequent vaccinations is unlikely to be and is not in fact explained by confounding factors. We are told that both second dose-vaccinated and booster-vaccinated cohorts were older than the first dose cohort, so age does not seem to explain the rise. Other confounding factors are not revealed. Did they exist for any of the cohorts? 

The authors also resort to breaking the data down into slices (dose by dose) in a way which prioritises the micro over the macro perspective, and obscures strategic synthesis. 

After three doses (including boosters), how did the incidence rates of the vaccinated groups compare with that of the unvaccinated groups in toto, over the whole study period? Were they higher or lower overall? This is not revealed. What about after a year? Two years? Three years? Why are the Moderna rates so much lower, and why do they not discuss this? On the basis of the figures in the table, repeated doses of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines pose unacceptable risks. Yet these were the main vaccines deployed in England in this period, approximately 90% of the total.

But on the basis of these misleading and selected statistics, unasked and unanswered questions, the authors triumphantly conclude:

These findings, in conjunction with the long-term higher risk of severe cardiovascular and other complications associated with COVID-19, offer compelling evidence supporting the net cardiovascular benefit of COVID vaccination.

This is a whitewash. Their unadjusted data show the reverse – most Covid-19 vaccinations increased cardiac risks. The fact that the authors studiously refrain from referring to or discussing the markedly adverse incidence ratios after vaccination is strongly indicative of bias, although at least they included them in the tables, taking a risk that close readers might notice their significance.

Many other studies perpetuate the whitewash, based on a zero-sum assumption that there are two mutually exclusive groups: unvaccinated people who fall victim to Covid-19 and vaccinated people who don’t.But the Cleveland Clinic preprint by Shrestha et al found that:

Consistent with similar findings in many prior studies…a higher number of prior vaccine doses was associated with a higher risk of COVID-19. The exact reason for this finding is not clear. It is possible that this may be related to the fact that vaccine-induced immunity is weaker and less durable than natural immunity….Thus, the short-term protection provided by a COVID-19 vaccine comes with a risk of increased susceptibility to COVID-19 in the future.

They reached the same conclusion in their peer-reviewed report on the effectiveness of the 2019 bivalent vaccines: ‘The risk of Covid-19 also increased with time since the most recent prior Covid-19 episode and with the number of vaccine doses previously received.’

Studies which show that vaccinated groups have much lower rates of infection than unvaccinated groups are usually founded on the ‘case-counting window bias,’ as explained in the peer-reviewed report on the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna by Alessandria et al. The vaccinated have lower numbers of infections in a defined window of time, but not necessarily beyond it. By contrast, the Cleveland Clinic studies above use a longer and additive timeframe, and Ip et al do not seem to exclude the first 14 days, which is a strength of their base statistics.

There is the risk that both the vaccines and the virus might cause similar harms to the cardiovascular system. Jean Marc Sabatier of Aix-Marseilles University has been warning against this from early in the pandemic. In 2021 he and his colleagues published a peer-reviewed paper: The Renin-Angiotensin System: A Key Role in SARS-CoV-2-Induced COVID-19.

The paper explains:

In fact, the viral entrance promotes a downregulation of ACE2 followed by RAS balance dysregulation and an overactivation of the angiotensin II (Ang II)–angiotensin II type I receptor (AT1R) axis, which is characterized by a strong vasoconstriction and the induction of the profibrotic, proapoptotic and proinflammatory signalizations in the lungs and other organs. This mechanism features a massive cytokine storm, hypercoagulation, an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and subsequent multiple organ damage.

The model is depicted in Figure 1:

While the paper focuses almost entirely on Covid-19, the disease, the implications of the model go to risks of the vaccine also. This is cautiously slipped into the explication of Figure 1 (my italics): ‘during SARS-CoV-2 infection or upon receiving a spike protein-based vaccine, the viral Spike (S) glycoprotein binding to ACE2 receptor induces overactivation of the ACE/Ang II/AT1R axis.’

So, we must consider the risk that as well as the SARS-CoV-2 virus, some (if not all) vaccines might also induce overactivation of the ACE2 receptor and consequently the renin angiotensin system. There is no proof that they do, but there is equally no proof that they do not, and the model fits well with the Ip data on cardiovascular event incidence levels for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines (but not with the favourable Moderna figures – what is different about the Moderna vaccine?). 

This would be an issue under any scenario, but even more so if incidence of Covid-19 increases with the number of vaccine doses previously received. The vaccinated can be repeatedly challenged by the spike protein both in the form of the virus and in the form of the vaccines as well. The risks from infection are not obviated – the risks of vaccinations are added to them, not substituted for them.

There has been a torrent of papers on the effects of Covid-19 vaccination, focusing on these limited windows of effectiveness. They display strong confirmation bias – data and findings apparently supporting effectiveness are welcomed with open arms despite obvious flaws, findings that overtly cast doubt on effectiveness or safety are vigorously contested and often succumb to a campaign to have them retracted. If the data are unfavourable, better to ‘adjust’ them so you can reverse the conclusions. This constitutes scientific misinformation.

Although pro-vaccine papers sometimes have sophisticated technical values, they show little capability for strategic thinking.

Which is the preferable and lowest-risk strategy over the timeframe of the pandemic crisis:

1. Undergoing multiple vaccinations of short-term effectiveness

2. Minimizing exposure to the spike vaccine?

The scientific literature simply does not test this strategic comparison by comparing overall outcomes for the vaccinated from the point of vaccination to the end of the pandemic crisis period, compared with the truly unvaccinated. But what we do know from the Ip population-level study of England is that Dose 1 for the two most commonly used vaccines increased 11 out of 11 cardiac events and a booster increased both arterial and venous events again for the Pfizer vaccine. 

Individuals should be free to make the strategic choice, guided by their health professionals, and should not be coerced to follow the first strategy through mandates. Mandates should not risk creating severe adverse outcomes on a mass scale.

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing and most densely populated cities. Rapid population growth, rural-to-urban migration, and economic concentration have driven major cities to expand well beyond their historic cores.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, highlights the most populated cities in the region in 2025.

The data for this visualization comes from the United Nations.

Cairo Stands Alone at the Top

Cairo ranks as the Middle East’s most populated city, with more than 25.5 million residents in 2025. The Egyptian capital has expanded steadily for decades, driven by high birth rates and sustained migration from rural areas. Alexandria and several other Egyptian cities also rank highly.

Türkiye and Iran Anchor Urban Growth

Türkiye places multiple cities in the top 20, led by Istanbul with over 15 million people, followed by Ankara and Izmir.

Iran also features prominently, with Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and several secondary cities reflecting the country’s large population and relatively balanced urban network.

Gulf Cities Punch Above Their Weight

Several Gulf cities appear high on the list despite much smaller national populations. Riyadh, Dubai, Jeddah, Doha, and Kuwait City have grown rapidly over the past two decades, fueled by economic diversification, infrastructure investment, and foreign labor inflows.

While smaller than Cairo or Istanbul, their growth rates remain among the fastest in the region.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Wealthiest Nations in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has announced plans for deportation reform aimed at expelling more foreign nationals convicted of serious crimes, using her New Year’s address to argue that Denmark must put public safety and victims first, even if doing so pushes the boundaries of international conventions.

“The government will soon present a comprehensive deportation reform,” Frederiksen said.

“This will mean that even more criminal foreigners will have to be sent out of Denmark.”

She drew a clear distinction between immigrants who, in her words, had embraced Denmark and those who commit crimes.

“You can be Danish even if your favorite dish isn’t meatballs or mackerel sandwiches, for that matter. We Danes, don’t look the same. Nor should we. But we should love each other.”

Frederiksen’s tone hardened when addressing the current issues regarding criminality and integration.

“In Denmark, when democracy and religion collide, it is God who has the right of way,” she said, before adding:

“Therefore, to the people who have come here and are committing crimes: You shouldn’t be here. We don’t want your madness and culture of dominance. You are destroying the most beautiful country in the world, and you should not be allowed to do that.”

🇩🇰🚨 Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen used her New Year’s address to promise ramped-up deportations for foreign criminals.

“We do not want your culture of dominance. You are destroying the most beautiful country in the world.” pic.twitter.com/XKdbTmNXRn

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 5, 2026

She cited specific cases to underline what she described as systemic failures.

“No one can understand why an Iraqi man convicted of brutally assaulting an innocent person with a golf club cannot be deported,” Frederiksen said.

“Nor why a previously convicted man from Kosovo, convicted of abusing his children and spouse for several years, can be allowed to stay here.”

Under the government’s proposal, foreigners would be deported if they commit serious crimes and receive a prison sentence of at least one year, regardless of their length of stay or personal ties to Denmark.

“This makes it a very clear starting point,” Frederiksen said.

“If you are convicted of, for example, rape, aggravated assault, or other serious crime, then your stay in Denmark is over.”

Frederiksen said Denmark already deports many criminal foreigners due to what she described as a strict immigration policy that goes “to the edge of conventions.” She argued that the government could now go further because Denmark, together with Italy, had succeeded before Christmas in gathering support from 27 countries for a new interpretation of the European Convention on Human Rights. “Now, first and foremost, it must be the populations – and the victims – who are protected. And not the perpetrator,” she said. “Instead of waiting several years for it to take effect in court practice, we are taking the lead and implementing legislation before the summer.”

In October last year, a government report revealed that nearly three-quarters of those convicted under Denmark’s so-called gang clause have immigrant backgrounds from non-Western countries. Data released by the Ministry of Justice showed that between 2018 and 2025, 213 people were convicted under Section 81a of the Criminal Code, which allows courts to double sentences for crimes likely to provoke gang violence. Of those convicted, 54 were of Danish origin, 36 were immigrants from non-Western countries, and 117 were descendants of non-Western immigrants, meaning 72 percent had non-Western roots. Conservative immigration spokesman Frederik Bloch Münster described the figure as “remarkably high.”

Denmark has already moved to tighten deportation rules. In December 2024, the government announced plans to abolish the so-called ladder system, which limits deportation based on the severity of a crime and the offender’s length of stay in the country. The proposed reform would allow the deportation of any foreign national sentenced to an unconditional prison term, unless doing so would breach Denmark’s international obligations.

“Unfortunately, foreigners in Denmark are overrepresented in the crime statistics and too often commit serious crimes — such as those related to gang activity. We don’t have to deal with that. The hammer must fall even harder,” said Immigration and Integration Minister Kaare Dybvad Bek at the time.

“Therefore, we want to tighten the rules so that we can get even more criminal aliens deported. Every criminal alien who is deported by Denmark is a victory for the legal community and a victory for our country.”

The deportation push is part of a broader tightening of Denmark’s approach to immigration and national identity. Since Jan. 1, 2025, it has been illegal to raise foreign flags without special permission, following new legislation passed by the Folketing after a Supreme Court ruling struck down a 1915 ban. The new rule restored restrictions while allowing exceptions for Nordic flags, Germany, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and specific contexts such as sporting events, demonstrations, or special permits granted by police or the justice minister.

Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard defended the measure last December, saying, “The Dannebrog is the most important national symbol we have in Denmark. A symbol that binds the Danes together as a people, and which should enjoy a very special status in Denmark.”

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