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Netflix & Spill: Streamer Smashed To 2 Year Low After Forecast Misses Across The Board

Netflix & Spill: Streamer Smashed To 2 Year Low After Forecast Misses Across The Board

It has been a brutal year for NFLX longs, who have seen their favorite stock slide in a straight line since last summer, erasing almost 50% from the July 2025 all time high of $134. And unfortunately for them, it appears this brutality isn’t going to end any time soon after the company mangled its Q2 earnings moments ago, reporting mediocre earnings, but more importantly, projecting numbers that missed consensus estimates for both Q3 and and the full year.

First, looking at the historicals, we find results that just barely beat expectations, while US and Canada revenue outright missed.

  • EPS 80c, barely beating the est 79c, and up from 72c y/y
  • Revenue $12.56 billion, +13% y/y, barely beating the est $12.58 billion
    • US & Canada revenue $5.43 billion, +10% y/y, missing estimate $5.52 billion
    • EMEA revenue $4.03 billion, +14% y/y, matching estimate $4.03 billion
    • Latin America revenue $1.58 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $1.51 billion
    • APAC revenue $1.51 billion, +16% y/y, missing estimate $1.53 billion
       
  • Operating income $4.19 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $4.13 billion
    • Operating margin 33.4% vs. 34.1% y/y, beating estimate 33%
       
  • Cash flow from operations $1.74 billion, -28% y/y, missing estimate $2.93 billion
    • Free cash flow $1.53 billion, -33% y/y, badly missing estimate $2.72 billion… maybe they too are building a data center.

While historical were lously at best – it was the company’s projections that spooked the market: the company projected revenue of $12.9 billion in the current quarter and earnings of 82 cents a share, both missing analysts’ expectations. And since most of Wall Street’s attention had been on future performance, this was enough to send the stock plunging.

Q3 forecast

  • Sees EPS 82c, missing the estimate 84c 
  • Sees revenue $12.86 billion, missing estimate $13 billion
  • Sees operating income $4.27 billion, missing estimate $4.36 billion
  • Sees operating margin 33.2%, missing estimate 33.5%

Full year forecast 

  • Sees revenue $51 billion to $51.4 billion, saw $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, midpoint missing estimate $51.38 billion
  • Sees revenue +13% to +14%, saw +12% to +14%
  • Still sees operating margin 31.5%, missing estimate 31.7%
  • Still sees free cash flow about $12.5 billion, missing estimate $13.09 billion

Commenting on the quarter, Netflix said it is “building out our ads business continues to be a top priority and we remain on track to deliver approximately $3 billion in ads revenue in 2026.” While the collapse in free cash flow was surprising (and begs the question if NFLX is also building a data center), the company said it is continues to expect annual cash content spend to amortization ratio of ~1.1x.

Commenting on the latest price hike(s)- which now happen every quarter if not every month, the company said that “the results of our recent price changes are consistent with prior changes and our expectations.” That bad, huh?

NFLX also said that it was “leveraging AI to provide a more personalized, immersive and interactive experience for members, enhance ads capabilities for brands, and improve the quality of our series and films.”

Translation: crap content, now with even more slop.

As noted above, NFLX shares have plunged more than 40% over the last year, as the company’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery and subsequent financial results have caused investors to realize that the leader in streaming has lost momentum. While Netflix still has more subscribers and viewership than any other paid streaming service, engagement has fallen off a cliff as growth in sales and hours spent on the service has been slowing.

If that wasn’t enough, Netflix endured a months-long drought of new hits in the first half of the year, during which many returning shows struggled to retain viewers in the new seasons. That dry spell ended with I Will Find You, an adaptation of a Harlan Coben novel, which was Netflix’s most-viewed new original series this year, and frankly, was at best a 4 out of 10. 

Netflix has announced a flurry of new details with popular social media personalities in recent weeks, including YouTube stars Alan Chikin Chow and Nick DiGiovanni, and even touted its use of generative artificial intelligence on about 300 shows.

In other words, it has tried everything and still people are turning off. 

The company sought to reassure restive investors by outlining a plan to sustain growth in the coming years. It is investing in new kinds of programming, such as live sports and video podcasts. Podcasts are attracting more viewers during the day and on mobile devices while live programming has helped attract a lot of customers relative to its actual share of viewing, the company said.

“We are increasingly leveraging these tools to deliver higher quality output more quickly and at a lower cost than traditional methods,” the company wrote in its letter to shareholders. Netflix has resumed offering free trials in select markets as a test.

The amount of time people spend on Netflix grew 2% in the first half of 2026, a slight improvement over a year ago. The company said that was good, especially given the competition from the World Cup and Winter Olympics, which aired on other networks. Netflix also said it will now release its What We Watched report on show viewership annually, rather than twice a year.

None of that however is helping as markets look at the continued decline in growth and wonder, when does it end? Clearly not today with the stock plunging to a fresh 21 month low…

…. and set up for the ultimate head and shoulders pattern.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 16:44

Watch Live: All Eyes On SpaceX’s First Starship Launch Since Its IPO

Watch Live: All Eyes On SpaceX’s First Starship Launch Since Its IPO

SpaceX is scheduled to launch the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket on Thursday evening, marking the first mission since the company completed its blockbuster public debut in June, according to ABC News. Liftoff is scheduled from the company’s Starbase facility in Texas, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 6:45 p.m. ET. As always, weather or technical issues could delay the attempt.

The mission will be the second flight of Starship Version 3, a significantly redesigned vehicle that SpaceX believes represents a major leap forward. Charlie Cox, the company’s director of Starship Engineering, described the new spacecraft as “basically a clean-sheet design,” explaining that engineers took the lessons learned from the first two generations and rebuilt the vehicle to address reliability and performance shortcomings.

The launch carries added significance now that SpaceX is a public company. Beyond the engineering milestones, investors will be watching closely because another successful test would reinforce confidence in the company’s long-term plans, while another high-profile setback could weigh on sentiment and potentially pressure the stock.

The ABC News report says that Starship sits at the center of SpaceX’s future. NASA plans to use a modified version of the spacecraft as the lunar lander for future Artemis missions, while SpaceX also intends to use it to rapidly expand its Starlink constellation, support future space-based infrastructure, and eventually carry humans to Mars. Bill Riley, SpaceX’s vice president of Starship Engineering, called Version 3 “the foundational design,” adding that it will ultimately be “the one that puts humans back on the moon” and eventually “the first boot prints and then city on Mars.”

The previous test flight achieved many of its objectives but also exposed several issues. The Super Heavy booster experienced propulsion problems during its return burn, resulting in a hard splashdown and an FAA investigation that has since been closed after regulators accepted SpaceX’s corrective actions. Meanwhile, Starship lost one of its Raptor engines during flight, forcing the company to abandon an attempted in-space engine relight.

Flight 13 will try that engine relight once again, a critical capability needed before Starship can reach orbit and begin deploying operational Starlink satellites. The spacecraft will also attempt to release 20 next-generation Starlink satellites during the mission. Like the previous test, the flight will remain suborbital, traveling from Texas across the Atlantic before splashing down in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy booster is expected to land in the Gulf.

 

“>

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 16:40

The Odyssey Hullabaloo

The Odyssey Hullabaloo

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Acclaimed British filmmaker Christopher Nolan’s (The Dark Knight, Oppenheimer) newest film, The Odyssey, opens this week in the United States.

But controversy has already surrounded Nolan’s adaptation of Homer’s 2,700-year-old epic poem about Odysseus’s 10-year struggle to return home after the Achaian victory in the decade-long Trojan War.

Some of the film’s actresses have suggested that Nolan is offering a more feminist – and long-overdue – take on the ancient poem. Actress Lupita Nyong’o, in particular, has criticized Homer’s purported sexism.

Perhaps her misreading of Homer stems from her admission that, despite receiving degrees from elite Hampshire College and Yale, the 42-year-old actress had never even read the Odyssey until she was cast in the minor dual roles of Helen and her sister Clytemnestra.

The Odyssey was composed orally sometime around 750-700 B.C., contemporaneously with the rise of the Greek city-state. Along with Homer’s other epic, The Iliad, The Odyssey marks the inauguration of Western literature. Over the next three millennia, it came to be recognized as not only the earliest but also one of the most profound works of Western civilization.

Far from being sexist, Homer’s Odyssey offers a timeless and diverse panorama of powerful, independent, and savvy women.

Take Penelope, the wife of Odysseus and queen of Ithaca. Unquestionably loyal to her missing husband, she outsmarts the bloodthirsty suitors who seek to force her into marriage and seize the kingdom through her steadfast courage and cunning.

She confounds them through a series of brilliant ruses, ultimately enabling her husband’s revenge.

Far different, but equally independent and crafty, are the immortal sorceress Circe and the divine nymph Calypso, who both shelter, seduce, and eventually bond with Odysseus. Both ultimately release him to continue his tragic journey home. Together they serve as archetypes of unmarried women who choose to live magical lives on their own sexual, economic, and political terms.

Helen makes a cameo appearance in both the poem and the film. Her beauty is all-powerful and dangerously – even destructively – seductive. It prompts the Trojan boy toy Paris to kidnap her, win her over, and flee back to Troy, setting in motion the decade-long Greek expedition against Troy and the extraordinary effort to bring the beauty home to her cuckolded and vapid husband, King Menelaus of Sparta.

Without the help of the virgin goddess Athena – often regarded as the wisest, most stable, and most humane of the Olympian gods – Odysseus would never have reached home.

By the same token, among the kindest figures in the poem are Odysseus’s loyal nurse, Eurycleia, Penelope’s trusted confidante, and the young, innocent Phaeacian princess Nausicaa, who befriends Odysseus and ensures her parents’ goodwill toward him, eventually securing his safe return to Ithaca.

The monstrous, man-destroying female Scylla and the Sirens are every bit as deadly, but far more astute than the cannibalistic and dimwitted Cyclops Polyphemus.

Far from being sexist, then, The Odyssey offers the earliest – and one of the finest – gallery of capable women in Western literature.

Controversy also arose from Nolan’s casting of Kenyan-Mexican-American actress Lupita Nyong’o as a black Helen, contrary to the Spartan queen’s ethnicity in Homer’s poem.

Cultural appropriation is a heated but often inconsistently applied charge. (When white women wear dreadlocks, that is somehow deemed to be cultural appropriation; black women wearing blond wigs isn’t?)

Yet there is a long history of directors using marquee actors to play characters of different races or ethnicities. British actor Laurence Olivier achieved fame by brilliantly playing Shakespeare’s black Othello. Mexican-American and Irish Anthony Quinn portrayed a stunning Zorba the Greek. Burt Lancaster, Charles Bronson, and Audrey Hepburn all effectively portrayed Native American characters.

In the age of sophisticated makeup and costuming, great actors can believably play almost any role. Problems arise only when a literary or historical figure’s race or gender is so central to the character that it permeates the entire narrative of the film, novel, or poem.

No white actor could play a believable Martin Luther King Jr. or Muhammad Ali. Nor could a black actor be believable as Abraham Lincoln. Nor could a woman realistically play James Bond – Ian Fleming’s womanizing playboy and hypermasculine secret agent 007.

Now, in Nolan’s defense, Helen is a minor figure in both the poem and the film version of the Odyssey. That she was white in the poem and black in the film does not undermine the adaptation of Homer’s poem. But had Lupita Nyong’o perhaps played the key character of Penelope, then the glaring racial disparity might have introduced new and extraneous issues or distracted from the central narrative.

A final note.

The Odyssey is an embodiment of Hellenic culture – and still deeply revered in Greece as an iconic symbol of the ongoing national experience. Given the tradition of brilliant Greek actresses such as Irene Pappas or Melina Mercouri, Nolan might have employed at least one Greek actor or actress in an epic about the indomitable people of Greece.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 16:20

American Naval Academy Cadets Prepare For War With Stoic Philosophy

American Naval Academy Cadets Prepare For War With Stoic Philosophy

Authored by Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz via Mavi Vatan Geopolitics,

The United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, which has trained officers for the U.S. Navy since 1845, reports directly to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). There is no separate Naval Education and Training Command within its chain of command. Today, Annapolis is not the Navy’s only source of commissioned officers. The U.S. Navy also commissions officers through the Officer Candidate School (OCS) and the Naval Reserve Officers Training Corps (NROTC) programs conducted at universities across the country.

Each year, the U.S. Navy commissions approximately 2,500-3,000 new officers, of whom roughly 1,000-1,100 graduate from Annapolis. Although the Academy provides only about one-third of the Navy’s annual officer intake, it produces a disproportionate share of its future strategic leaders, fleet commanders, and candidates for the position of Chief of Naval Operations (CNO).

In American naval culture, Annapolis graduates are known as “Ring Knockers.” Their distinctive class rings symbolize far more than a shared educational background. They represent the strategic tradition, institutional memory, and elite leadership culture of American sea power. It is therefore no coincidence that Annapolis graduates have historically occupied a dominant position within the U.S. Navy’s admiralty and its most critical command appointments.

The Foundation of Imperial Power Is Naval Power

Throughout its history, the backbone of American global and imperial power has been its navy. During the Second World War in particular, aircraft carriers, battleships, cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and millions of tons of ammunition produced by American industry on an unprecedented scale were employed by commanders educated at Annapolis in pursuit of U.S. political objectives. The naval supremacy achieved at the end of the war elevated the United States to global leadership not only in military terms but also economically and geopolitically.

Yet the strength of a navy cannot be measured solely by its ships, weapons, or technology. The decisive factor is the strategic culture, value system, and intellectual tradition that shape the officers entrusted with commanding that force. To understand American naval power, one must therefore examine the historical, philosophical, moral, and spiritual environment in which its officers are educated. This is precisely what makes Annapolis unique and significant.

Annapolis is more than a military academy; it reflects the American state, society, and strategic culture. For that reason, understanding the education provided there and the intellectual outlook of its graduates requires an examination of the political and social environment in which the Academy operates. In particular, the place of religion in American public life and its influence on politics constitute an important element of this broader cultural context.

Religion and Its Place in American Politics

Religion continues to play a significant role in American public life and politics and has become increasingly visible in recent years, particularly through conservative Christian circles and the evangelical movement. Unlike the stricter model of secularism found in much of Europe, the United States has traditionally adopted an approach that does not exclude religion from the public sphere. As a result, religious influence remains evident across many aspects of American society, from education to politics.

Following the strengthening of U.S.-Israel relations after 1967 – and especially during the period that gained momentum after the September 11 attacks – the influence of Christian Zionist circles, particularly evangelical Christians, on American policy toward Israel became increasingly pronounced. Especially within the Republican Party, support for Israel is viewed not only as a strategic necessity but also as a religious obligation rooted in biblical interpretation. During the recent Israel-Iran confrontation, religious services, sermons, and spiritual guidance provided by military chaplains in some U.S. military units reflected this broader trend.

The influence of religion is also visible at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. The campus contains nine chapels and spiritual support centers serving different faith communities. These institutions function not only as places of worship but also as centers for character development, ethical leadership, spiritual resilience, and the cultivation of the will to fight. Their presence demonstrates that religion has not been excluded from institutional life within the U.S. Armed Forces, rather, it continues to be regarded as one of the elements that strengthen morale, cohesion, and resilience. To fully understand the cultural environment in which Annapolis educates America’s future military and political leaders, the continuing prominence of religion in American society must therefore be considered.

Stoic Training for American Naval Officer Candidates

In recent years, the U.S. Naval Academy has undergone a remarkable evolution in its educational philosophy. Alongside traditional military instruction, Stoic philosophy has been incorporated into officer education, introducing cadets to the works of Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, and Epictetus. The objective is not to promote a new belief system, but to develop leaders capable of making sound decisions under uncertainty, enduring hardship, mastering fear, exercising self-discipline, and demonstrating strength of character in combat.

This approach has moved well beyond theory. During the 2024 and 2025 Plebe Summer programs, the Academy introduced a six-week voluntary Stoicism course for incoming midshipmen. Participants learned to distinguish between what lies within their control and what does not; to regard adversity as an opportunity for character development; to confront the possibility of death and failure with composure; to value inner discipline over external recognition; and to judge events rationally rather than emotionally. In this context, Stoicism is taught not as an ancient philosophical tradition, but as practical preparation for the psychological demands of war.

This educational shift also reflects a broader transformation in the U.S. Navy’s concept of leadership. At a time when artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are becoming increasingly central to warfare, the Navy seeks to produce officers who are not only technologically proficient but also capable of preserving sound judgment, emotional stability, and psychological superiority under the extreme pressures of combat. In the wars of the future, victory will depend not only on superior technology, but also on the character, resilience, and moral strength of those entrusted to employ it.

Why Stoicism?

Originating more than 2,300 years ago, Stoicism is a philosophy of life that teaches individuals to master their own minds in the face of events beyond their control. No commander can know with certainty what an enemy will do, how a war will unfold, or when death may come. In the face of such uncertainty, Stoic philosophy seeks to replace fear with reason, anger with composure, and despair with a steadfast sense of duty. Stoicism is therefore not a doctrine of passive fatalism but a philosophy for cultivating warriors capable of preserving their will and judgment under the harshest conditions.

This is precisely why Annapolis has reintroduced Stoicism into its curriculum. The objective is not to teach ancient philosophy for its own sake, but to equip future naval officers with the mental discipline required to make sound decisions under pressure, demonstrate psychological resilience, and remain focused on their mission regardless of circumstances.

This educational choice also reflects the U.S. Navy’s evolving understanding of “spiritual readiness.” The Navy seeks to unite personnel from different religious traditions – as well as those with no religious affiliation – around a common ethic of character, duty, and leadership. In this context, Stoicism provides a secular, non-sectarian framework for moral and character development that can serve as common ground for all. States may adapt to changing patterns of religious belief within society, but military institutions cannot rely on a shared faith alone. To prevail in war, they require officers who share a common character rather than a common creed.

The broader message Annapolis seeks to convey is that the wars of the twenty-first century will not be decided solely by artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, or autonomous systems. They will also be contests of the human mind, resilience, and the will to fight. Technology remains only an instrument of war; victory ultimately belongs to those who can employ it wisely under pressure, hardship, and uncertainty.

Perhaps no quotation captures this philosophy better than the words traditionally attributed to the Stoic Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius: “Be like the rock against which the waves continually break; it stands firm while the raging waters are stilled around it.” In war, what ultimately proves decisive is neither enemy fire nor violent storms, but the commander’s ability to preserve clarity of mind and firmness of will. At Annapolis, young officer candidates are therefore taught a simple but enduring principle: first master your mind, then fight.

Change in American Society

The U.S. Naval Academy’s renewed emphasis on Stoic philosophy represents more than an educational reform; it reflects the impact of profound sociological changes in American society over the past two decades on the nation’s military institutions. As affiliation with organized religion has steadily declined – particularly among Generation Z – the number of Americans who identify with no religious tradition, commonly referred to as the “Nones,” has grown rapidly. The leadership at Annapolis recognizes that a significant proportion of incoming midshipmen are no longer motivated by traditional religious references to the same extent as previous generations.

This trend is equally evident within the U.S. Navy itself. Approximately 40 percent of enlisted sailors do not identify with any religious tradition, while roughly 15 percent of newly admitted midshipmen at Annapolis report no religious affiliation. This demographic transformation has been one of the principal reasons for incorporating Stoicism into the Academy’s broader concept of “spiritual readiness.”

According to the U.S. Naval Academy, spiritual readiness is the inner resilience and moral strength that enable a warrior to perform his or her duty with honor under the most demanding circumstances. Rather than reinforcing a particular religious tradition, the Navy seeks to cultivate a shared ethic of character, duty, and commitment among personnel from diverse faiths – or from no faith at all. Consequently, Stoicism has become an integral component of the Academy’s spiritual readiness program rather than simply another subject within ethics education. Combat readiness is thus understood in holistic terms, encompassing not only physical endurance, technical competence, and tactical proficiency, but also psychological resilience, moral character, and spiritual strength.

One of the most influential symbols of this philosophy is Admiral James Stockdale. After being shot down during the Vietnam War, Stockdale endured seven and a half years of imprisonment, torture, and solitary confinement in Hanoi. He later explained that his ability to preserve his mental resilience owed much to the teachings of the Stoic philosopher Epictetus. For this reason, Stockdale’s experience continues to serve as one of the most powerful sources of inspiration for Stoic education at Annapolis.

This educational choice also reflects a broader feature of American strategic culture. As Samuel P. Huntington argued, military institutions cannot remain completely insulated from social change, yet they must preserve a distinct professional ethic if they are to retain their combat effectiveness. Annapolis’ rediscovery of Stoicism is one of the clearest contemporary expressions of this principle. The objective is not to replace or diminish religion, but to place a universal, non-sectarian philosophy of character at the center of officer development, thereby preserving the timeless military virtues required for war in an increasingly diverse and changing society.

Fighting in the Mud

One of the enduring truths of war is that a nation can bomb a country for months, destroy its infrastructure, and exploit overwhelming technological superiority. Yet if it truly intends to impose its political objectives, occupy territory, or establish a lasting order, it must eventually send its young soldiers into the mud. This memorable observation by the American military historian T. R. Fehrenbach, written about the Korean War, captures the timeless essence of warfare. The ultimate measure of military success is not technological superiority alone, but a society’s willingness to bear the human cost of war.

It is here that the fundamental distinction between a war for the homeland and an overseas geopolitical war becomes apparent. People are prepared to fight – and, if necessary, die – for their own land, their families, their nation, and their future. It is far more difficult to inspire the same level of sacrifice thousands of miles from home in pursuit of political objectives, energy routes, or geopolitical ambitions that are remote from their daily lives.

The great power competition of the twenty-first century will therefore not be determined solely by artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles, or autonomous systems. It will also be a contest over how societies understand death, suffering, sacrifice, and the burden of prolonged war. The defining strategic question of the future is not simply who develops the most advanced technology, but which society remains willing to bear the costs of employing it over time. As throughout history, victory will ultimately belong not to those who possess the most sophisticated weapons, but to those whose people retain the determination to endure hardship, accept sacrifice, and, when necessary, continue fighting in the mud until the mission is accomplished.

Conclusion

The transformation taking place at Annapolis, US Naval Academy is far more than an educational reform. It reflects a profound shift in strategic thinking – one that recognizes technological superiority alone cannot guarantee victory in twenty-first-century warfare. The U.S. Navy is seeking to prepare the future warrior not merely as a master of artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, and autonomous systems, but as a leader capable of making sound decisions under uncertainty, maintaining psychological resilience, and remaining steadfast in the ethics of duty.

This transformation is driven not only by military necessity but also by the sociological evolution of American society. As affiliation with organized religion declines and individuals from diverse faiths – or from no faith at all – serve under the same uniform, the Navy seeks to cultivate a common will to fight based not on shared religious doctrine but on shared character and enduring values. In this context, Stoicism has regained relevance not as an ancient philosophical school, but as a secular framework for character formation suited to the demands of modern military leadership.

Ultimately, this reflects one of the timeless realities of war. Artificial intelligence may identify targets, autonomous systems may deliver firepower, and algorithms may accelerate decision-making. Yet none of them can overcome fear, embrace sacrifice, or choose to risk death in the fulfillment of duty. The decisive factor in future warfare will therefore remain not technology itself, but the mind, character, and fighting spirit of the human being who employs it.

Perhaps this is the true reason Annapolis has rediscovered Stoicism. The U.S. Navy is not simply developing new weapons; it is shaping the mindset of the future warrior. History has repeatedly demonstrated that victory belongs not to those who possess the most advanced technology, but to those who preserve their discipline, resilience, and will to fight under the harshest conditions.

Sources:

The Stoic Anchor: Expanding Spiritual Readiness at the U.S. Naval Academy, By Commander Matthew Krauz, U.S. Navy, and Marcus Hedahl, June 2026, USNI Proceedings

Improving Spiritual Readiness in the Navy, By Commander Matthew B. Krauz, U.S. Navy, December 2025, USNI Proceedings

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:40

US Launches 6th Consecutive Night Of Strikes On Iran Amid Threats Of “Infrastructure For Infrastructure” War

US Launches 6th Consecutive Night Of Strikes On Iran Amid Threats Of “Infrastructure For Infrastructure” War

Update(1520ET)The Pentagon has announced that a sixth night of airstrikes on Iran have commenced: “At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities,” US Central Command stated on X.

Some latest developments from the region on Iran’s retaliation:

  • Iranian strikes targeted a number of vital facilities in Kuwait, the Reuters news agency reports, citing the country’s defence ministry. The strikes resulted in material damage, it added.
  • The US Embassy in Baghdad has advised US citizens in Iraq to be on alert following a drone attack on Erbil on Wednesday.
  • Dubai has warned of “necessary measures” against any media publishing false news after Reuters reported sounds of explosions in the city center of the UAE’s financial hub.

Thursday’s strikes appear to be focused further north in Iran, also after earlier reports of having forcibly turned back another tanker accused of seeking to bypass the US naval blockade.

So far amid what is approaching one week of renewed US air raids, Iranian officials say the attacks have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others.

Ironically, Karoline Leavitt was gone a couple months for maternity leave and she just returned this afternoon to give pretty much the same Iran press briefing as before she left…

*  *  *

Since the prior day’s handover of American detainee Dena Karari back to the US, which President Trump said he “appreciated” as a rare “gesture of goodwill” from Iran, Washington’s bombs over the Islamic Republic appear to have ceased or slowed, for now at least.

But that doesn’t mean Iran’s retaliatory missiles and drones on America’s Gulf allies have halted. On Thursday, Kuwait has announced its air defenses continue to be active, confronting inbound assaults by “hostile drones”.

Screengrab of IRGC video from Sepah News website on July 14, 2026, showing a missile being launched towards US targets in Bahrain & Kuwait.

“The General Staff of the Army notes that any explosion sounds heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks,” the Kuwaiti military said in a statement, blasting “the sinful Iranian aggression.” It added: “Everyone is requested to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities.”

After five consecutive days of US attack waves, the Iranian military has yet to show signs of backing off its assertions of ‘control’ over the Strait of Hormuz, and its military has newly warned that the energy transit waterway is an “unbreakable red line” which it will enforce.

On Wednesday President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t come back to the negotiating table – while relinquishing control of Hormuz – that by next week strikes will expand to include civic and energy infrastructure, such as bridges.

Tehran has in turn counter-threatened to destroy “all infrastructure throughout the region” if Trump acts on this threat to attack Iran’s vital infrastructure cites.

New: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure” – Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

There are already signs that Iran could be making good on this threat, with Reuters reporting that “Iraq briefly suspended oil ​loadings on Thursday before resuming them after a drone hit an oil ‌tanker at its Basra terminal, four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters.”

However, no fire or damage resulted from the attack, with sources indicating it wasn’t immediately clear who launched it (whether directly from the Iranians, or perhaps from Tehran-aligned Iraqi paramilitaries). Iraqi oil officials have downplayed the incident:

It is not ⁠targeting Basra Oil Terminal. Its target is another place. Loading is at normal rates ​depending on the vessels’ availability,” Ali Nazar said.

An oil ministry spokesperson said loadings were ​ongoing at Iraq’s southern ports and that the ministry is investigating the matter.

Iranian officials are meanwhile accusing Washington of more war crimes, specifically of carrying out a “barbaric attack” after a cancer hospital in Iran’s southwest was forced to evacuate due to heavy airstrikes on the area.

“This barbaric attack – reminiscent of Israel’s atrocities against healthcare facilities – caused severe suffering and anxiety upon the hospitalised children,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei posted on X. He stated there were “211 patients undergoing chemotherapy” which had to be evacuated Wednesday. No response has been immediately forthcoming by the US side.

To review of the events of the prior 24 hours:

  • The US military says it launched another wave of strikes on Iran with Iranian media reporting explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar.
  • The US military also says it “disabled” an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz by firing Hellfire missiles.
  • Iran says it carried out retaliatory attacks targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

As for the situation of global shipping through the Strait, Kpler has recorded that merely 13 merchant ships transited the waterway on Wednesday, including eight that departed the Persian Gulf and five having entered.

Among those, only one – a bulk carrier entering the Gulf – used the US-approved route for safe passage, which hugs the Omani coast. Iran has been busy boasting that a huge array of companies and countries have sought to negotiate passage with Tehran on its terms of late.

This has settled into a waiting game amid dangerous escalatory tit-for-tat strikes, with each seeking to outlast in terms of absorbing pain.

…with that in mind, a “final blow”?

As for the fact that the US military hit an ‘unapproved’ oil tanker Wednesday near Iran’s main export terminal for the first time since the restart of the blockade on the Islamic Republic’s ports, CIC economists including Anne-Lise Cornen summarized where things stand for the White House in a note to clients…

“The challenge for Donald Trump will be to prevent a further rise in inflationary pressures and their detrimental effects on the economy, at a time when the situation was beginning to improve in June,” they said.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:20

Iran Tells Houthis To Close Red Sea Energy Chokepoint If Trump Bombs Power Grid

Iran Tells Houthis To Close Red Sea Energy Chokepoint If Trump Bombs Power Grid

Yemen’s Houthis have long warned of their ability to close the Red Sea oil route, but have by and large stayed on the sidelines of the expanding Gulf regional conflict which is focused on Iran since Operation Epic Fury began.

Things began changing dramatically this month, however, after Saudi warplane incursions into Yemen – which bombed Sanaa International Airport on July 13 – in an effort to prevent an Iranian commercial jet from landing there.

via Marine Insight

The Houthis responded by sending missile and drones on Saudi Arabian airbases and infrastructure, opening up the possibility of renewed Saudi-Houthi war (hearkening back to the more intense war of the prior decade).

Houthi rhetoric is growing, related to the US-Israel war on Iran:

The leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement has denounced US and Israeli collaboration as the source of the problems in the Middle East.

In a televised address, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi also blamed Saudi leaders for advancing US and Israeli objectives in the region. “The United States and Israel are the source of evil and instability in the world,” al-Houthi said.

In a rare moment of the now long-running conflict, on Thursday reports have emerged that Tehran is actively requesting that the Houthis join the war in the scenario that Washington begins attacking Iran’s power infrastructure.

This is after President Trump told Fox News on Tuesday evening that “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants.”

“Next week comes the bridges. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate,” he warned.

But according to Reuters, Iran still has another escalatory card of its own to play:

Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi rebels to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, three sources told Reuters on Thursday, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies.

The idea has been discussed within the Islamic Republic’s leadership, and the message has been conveyed to Iran’s Houthi allies, two senior Iranian sources and a regional source familiar with the matter said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The sources said the Houthis had been informed recently of Tehran’s request, which has not been previously reported.

It’s long been reported that the Houthis have indeed been making preparations to attack shipping by deploying missiles and drones near Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the crucial entry point to the Red Sea.

This could obviously greatly exacerbate the global energy crisis – and would likely set off a new round of regional escalation – which might also see Houthi missiles once again targeting southern Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the GCC allies.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:20

Cameco And Brookfield Positioned To Lead New Jersey’s $24 Billion Nuclear Build Out

Cameco And Brookfield Positioned To Lead New Jersey’s $24 Billion Nuclear Build Out

New Jersey has launched a competitive procurement process for new nuclear capacity under the Power New Jersey Act signed last month. The framework targets at least 1,100 MW of electrical power (MWe) at pre-approved sites and carries an estimated $24 billion price tag

Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactor sits coincidentally at about ~1,200 MWe.

State officials are emphasizing shovel-ready locations and lessons learned from earlier projects to accelerate deployment. Federal financing tools that can cover up to 80% of costs are expected to play a central role, such as from the DOE’s Energy Dominance Financing Office.

This state move sits squarely inside the larger federal nuclear effort we have tracked since last fall. We reported in detail on the $80 billion strategic partnership between the U.S. government, Cameco, and Brookfield to advance up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. Cameco leadership later indicated the combined opportunity across Department of Commerce and Department of Energy channels could reach as many as 20 AP1000 units

Several utility pairs already sit in advanced planning stages, with work progressing on long-lead items and financing models that range from federal build-own-operate structures to support for existing operators.

While state officials and the current procurement documents continue to describe the effort as targeting 1,100 MW, the underlying economics and signals from the federal side point to something larger

Cameco (and MIT) has been clear that meaningful cost reductions are likely to appear on the third and fourth AP1000 units, and the DOE’s broader program has consistently favored paired reactor deployments that allow shared infrastructure, long-lead procurement, and supply chain efficiencies. 

Given that the PSEG Early Site Permit already authorizes two units at the site, the publicly stated 1,100 MW floor may simply be the minimum the process is required to deliver while the actual project that clears the competitive negotiation ends up being a full two-reactor plant once the federal financing package and execution commitments are locked in.

Cameco and Brookfield bring distinct advantages into the New Jersey process. Their controlling stake in Westinghouse, combined with direct involvement in the federal large-reactor program and Brookfield’s separate partnership with The Nuclear Company to scale deployments, positions them to handle the capital intensity and leverage federal backstops at scale. 

The state’s preference for proven large-reactor execution over unproven SMR designs at this stage further aligns with their strengths.

Cameco shares have posted gains of roughly 24% over the past year as the nuclear investment case gained traction. Near-term trading has been more mixed, with some pullbacks coinciding with the momentum trade that nuclear has trended with over the past couple years.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 14:45

Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle

Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle

The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as a worsening memory-chip crunch, limited product availability, and consumers balking at higher prices threaten to deepen the downturn. These headwinds prompted Goldman analysts to “further trim” their PC shipment forecasts for this year and next.

We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-27E, considering the near-term pressures of higher memory and CPU costs, and the flattening replacement cycle following the end of Win 10,” said Allen Chang, a managing director and head of Goldman’s Greater China Technology research team.

Chang continued, “We now expect global PC shipments to be down -14%/ -5% YoY in 2026E/ 27E, followed by zero growth in 2028E (vs. -10%/ +3%/ +3% YoY previously). Our updated PC shipment forecasts are 255m/ 243m/ 244m in 2026-28E, respectively.”

Global PC Shipments: -14%/ -5%/ 0% YoY in 2026-28E

Global PC Revenues: -5%/ -2%/ +3% YoY in 2026 / 27E

PC ASP: increasing pricing due to specification upgrades and rising BoM

Global PC shipments: consumer vs. commercial

Chang noted that AI PCs are expected to remain a top growth driver:

We expect global AI PC shipments to reach 150m / 199m in 2026E / 28E (+15% CAGR), vs. 150m / 219m in our previous forecast, indicating 59% / 82% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global AI PC revenues to be US$169bn / 221bn in 2026E/ 28E (+14% CAGR), vs. US$169bn/ $226bn previously. We are positive on AI PC penetration ramp up in 2026E, with continuous introduction of new AI applications, such as OpenClaw and Seedance by Bytedance.

We expect global Gaming PC shipment to reach 26m / 28m in 2026E / 28E (+4% CAGR, vs. -2% CAGR for overall PC shipments), indicating 10% / 12% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global Gaming PC revenues to be US$46bn / $52bn in 2026E/ 28E (+7% CAGR, vs. +1% CAGR for overall PC revenues), riding on customers’ rising specialized needs for PCs. We model global Gaming PC ASP to increase, driven by specification upgrades (report link), including graphic card platform upgrades, thinner design, AI features, silent mode, and long durability, which would bring better user experience when enjoying triple-A games.

Professional subscribers can read a lot more on tech trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 13:25

Deflationary Money Hits Different: Losing Half Its Price And Winning Anyway

Deflationary Money Hits Different: Losing Half Its Price And Winning Anyway

Authored by Bryan Lutz, Contributor at The Sovereign Capitalist:

The FUD is back, baby.

Bitcoin is down nearly half from its 2025 high. And now, the obituaries are out of cold storage and back in heavy rotation. Sentiment surveys are scraping levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 crypto-winter, and the financial press has rediscovered its favorite genre: the Bitcoin post-mortem.

And this time they’ve got a chart to wave around. The Dow just had its best year against Bitcoin since 2022 – the Dow/BTC ratio has more than doubled off its August 2025 low, from 0.36 to 0.84.

Here it is. We’ll even draw the red line for them:

The Dow’s twelve-month winning streak against Bitcoin. Note what the line still hasn’t touched: 1.0.

Anyone holding through it felt every point. If you wanted to write the “Bitcoin is finished (again)” piece, this is the chart you’d lead with.

Notice what the line still hasn’t done, though.

It hasn’t touched 1.0.

After the worst sentiment stretch in years, after a ~45% drawdown, after twelve months of losing to the most boomer-coded stock index on earth, the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average still cannot buy one Bitcoin.

Against thirty of America’s biggest companies, the coin wins, with change left over.

Flip the fraction.

If that seems impossible, it’s because you’re reading the fraction the way CNBC wants you to read it:

Bitcoin

───────

$$$$$$$

Bitcoin as the numerator, dollars as the denominator, and the numerator just got cut in half. Case closed, right?

Wrong fraction. As Mark Jeftovic laid out in It’s the denominator, stupid, the entire point of Bitcoin is that it isn’t the thing being measured. It’s the thing you measure with. Put the index where it belongs:

  DOW

───────

BITCOIN

Now extend the chart back a decade and hit the log button, which is a one-click jailbreak for fiat-denominated brains:

The Dow, denominated in Bitcoin. A 99% decline that survived every Bitcoin crash along the way, including this one.

In 2014 it took more than 40 Bitcoin to buy the Dow. At the 2015 extreme, 84.

Today: 0.83.

Measured in the new denominator, the Dow has lost roughly 99% of its value in twelve years, and the “comeback” everyone is celebrating shows up on that chart as a wiggle at the bottom of a cliff. Bitcoin just took its worst beating in years and gave back approximately none of a decade of relative gains.

That’s what deflationary money does. It hits different.

It’s about the maths

The Dow is priced in dollars, and dollars multiply, inflate, depreciate, and then die… which is the business model for the whole fiat system. M2 only ever pauses on its way up, every crisis gets solved with more of it, and index earnings get marked up in the same shrinking units.

Bitcoin’s supply schedule, meanwhile, doesn’t attend FOMC meetings. The halvings keep halving. Twenty-one million, take it or leave it.

Run the numbers since January 2000: the Dow is up 361% in dollars. M2 is up 394%. Divide one by the other and the twenty-six-year bull market vanishes: measured in the money itself, the index has gone nowhere. Every point of “Dow 52,000” that isn’t printer output rounds to zero.

The Dow and the money supply, same starting line, 26 years later. The index never got ahead of the printer.

So, the fraction has a numerator inflated by an expanding money supply, sitting on top of a denominator that does not expand. Run that equation for a decade and the line on the chart is the only possible output. The drawdowns – 2018, 2022, this one – are volatility inside the trend. And that trend is division between fiat money and Bitcoin.

A Dow’s comeback measured in a shrinking yardstick must sprint just to stand still. This year, it’s rallied hard in dollars. In Bitcoin terms, it clawed back a rounding error.

Same story, slower clock.

If this framework sounds familiar, it should. Gold holders have been living it since 1971, just at a different tempo.

In 2001 the Dow cost 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at nominal record highs and the algos doing victory laps, it costs 12.7 ounces. Two-thirds of the index’s gold-denominated value, gone, during a quarter century of “stocks always go up”.

Yes, gold and Bitcoin diverged this cycle. Gold at $4,142 while Bitcoin sits in a drawdown. They have different volatility profiles, and different adoption curves. Yet, they share the same denominator maths. One asset is the incumbent hard money, the other is the challenger still crossing the chasm. The DOW index can’t outrun either of them over any window that matters.

“Stocks at record highs” is mostly the yardstick shrinking. It is always has been.

Deflationary Money Still Undefeated this Decade

Here’s the thing about extreme bearish sentiment: it’s a report on the emotional state of leveraged tourists, not on the asset. Nothing about Bitcoin(or gold) changed this year. The supply schedule didn’t change. The halvings didn’t change. The $300+ trillion in bonds denominated in a melting currency didn’t change, except to get bigger.

The only thing that changed is the price, quoted in the old denominator, and the old denominator’s entire job description is to go down.

So, the mainstream news cycle might be right about one thing:

Deflationary money doesn’t win every year.

However, it does win every decade, and it’s undefeated.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 13:05

House Defeats Bid To End Israel Aid While Senate Blocks US-Israel Intel Integration

House Defeats Bid To End Israel Aid While Senate Blocks US-Israel Intel Integration

The U.S. House on Wednesday rejected an amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) that would have eliminated $3.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid to Israel, voting 314–104 to defeat the proposal.

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, the vote exposed divisions within the Democratic Party, with 103 Democrats joining Massie in support of the amendment, while 98 Democrats voted against it and 10 voted present. Massie was the only Republican to vote in favor of the amendment.

“Though my amendment to strike $3.3 billion in aid to Israel from the State Dept Approps bill did not pass, 104 House Members voted in favor of it,” Massie said on X.

“The tide is changing. Americans want their tax dollars to be spent improving things here at home, not waging war and genocide.”

The amendment was considered as the House debated the fiscal 2027 State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs appropriations bill.

Before the vote, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) urged lawmakers to reject the amendment, calling it “overly broad” because he said it could restrict funding for humanitarian aid, refugee resettlement, peace-building efforts, and U.S. Embassy operations.

While criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and calling for a “major reset” in U.S. policy toward Israel, Jeffries said the amendment was not the appropriate way to achieve those goals.

“In addition, the so-called Massie amendment would restrict our country’s ability to confront Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist organizations in the region who are sworn enemies of both the United States and Israel,” Jeffries’s letter to his colleagues stated.

Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) made reference to Massie, who lost his primary election to a President Donald Trump-backed candidate in May.

“Very proud of my @HouseGOP colleagues,” Fine posted on X after the vote.

“Today we unanimously repudiated our soon-departing Jew-hating colleague, making clear that standing with our greatest ally is core to America’s interests.”

Fine continued, “It takes a lot of effort to eradicate the green shoots of Jew Hatred that want to infect our party the way they have Democrats. Folks in Washington are learning I won’t allow it.”

Netanyahu said he wants Israel to phase out its reliance on U.S. military aid over the next decade, saying the country has grown strong enough economically and militarily to become more self-sufficient.

Israel currently receives about $3.8 billion annually under a 10-year, $38 billion U.S. assistance agreement that expires in 2028. Netanyahu said ending the financial component of military assistance would reflect Israel’s increasing independence while preserving a close strategic partnership with the United States.

At the same time, Democrats in the US Senate have blocked debate on an annual defense policy bill, objecting not only to President Trump’s war on Iran but also to provisions that would more closely integrate the United States and Israeli militaries.

The motion to proceed failed 50-46, well short of the 60 needed, with votes on strict party lines, and Thune flipping to “no” procedurally to preserve a revote

The NDAA process is where the integration fight lives: Massie is fighting the House version’s Section 219, which he says would begin “co-mingling our military supply chains and technology with Israel’s”

Reuters reports that the version of the Bill before the Senate has also triggered backlash over measures that would deepen US military and intelligence ties with Israel.

One key provision would require the Pentagon to appoint an official to coordinate between the US and Israel on defence technology.

That would include joint weapons research, production and the integration of each country’s technologies into the other’s military systems.

The provision also controversially calls for “data fusion”, which Human Rights Watch defined in June as combining feeds from multiple sensors and intelligence sources into a single targeting picture.

The group said the arrangement could see the US absorb Israeli intelligence that may have been collected through what it described as problematic mass surveillance programmes.

A separate measure in the 2027 Intelligence Authorization Act, which is usually considered alongside the NDAA, would expand intelligence sharing with Israel.

Democrats framed the block around the war: Schumer said Republicans want the NDAA passed “as though none of this is happening,” and Murphy called it flatly “an authorization for the Iran war, a war that nobody in this country wants.”

Senate Democrats’ efforts reflect a broader shift within the Democratic Party, where support for Israel has cratered ahead of the November midterm elections. Israel’s favourability rating among Democrats dropped from 59 percent in 2018 to 22 percent in May, according to a June Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 12:45