Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

President Trump is boldly facing the problem of high meat prices but also dealing with the financial strains on farmers themselves.

The issue is reconciling the two.

Lower prices are great for consumers but also add to the financial problems of small farmers.

Gradually, Trump has come to the conclusion that the real bottleneck is with meatpackers themselves, which is one of the oldest corporate monopolies in U.S. history.

He has posted the following:

“I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation. We will always protect our American Ranchers, and they are being blamed for what is being done by Majority Foreign Owned Meat Packers, who artificially inflate prices, and jeopardize the security of our Nation’s food supply. Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People. I am asking the DOJ to act expeditiously. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

With this posting, he has put his finger on the problem. Rep Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) points out that “Four meat packers control 85 percent of the meat processed in the U.S.”

Immediately, however, friends of mine in the free-market movement cried foul. He is blaming private enterprise whereas these corporations should be left alone by government to do whatever they want. They treated Trump’s call for intervention as some kind of imposition of government force on the freedom of commerce.

Who is correct here?

Once you understand the history, which goes very deep, you can see that Trump has hit an important point.

The meatpacking industry has been consolidating since the 1880s. This was codified with the Pure Food and Drug Act signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, alongside the Meat Inspection Act.

It was the first federal law to regulate food and pharmaceutical products. It not only prohibited the manufacture, sale, or transportation of adulterated or misbranded food, drugs, medicines, and liquors, it forced inspection on all U.S. meat processing and laid the foundation for the modern Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. It thereby created or really codified the meat cartel in America, something that has vexed small meat producers ever since.

Part of the reason for the lack of understanding here traces to a false historical understanding.

In the conventional historiography, Upton Sinclair wrote the novel called “The Jungle” that exposed the evils of the industry. As a result, Congress intervened to clean up the industry with new regulations. This became the headline legislation and event that set the agenda for the construction of the entire regulatory state in the United States.

The trouble is that this history is not true. It’s a fable.

The real story was told by Murray Rothbard and many other economic historians. Keep in mind that meatpacking as an industry separate from farming and ranching was a relatively new development. Traditionally, the industry was vertically integrated such that the people who raised the animals also slaughtered and processed them. The meatpackers and processors were attempting to replace these traditional practices. There is nothing wrong with that except that they used government power to unfairly tilt the scales in their favor.

The problems began in the 1880s when meatpackers sought to penetrate European markets. Imports were banned because the Europeans did not trust the quality. The industry then went to the government to certify the cleanliness and safety of their meat. The scheme worked and set forth a model for a different kind of competition. Industry would unite with government as a way of assuring consumers and also driving up the costs of entry into markets such that small processing could not afford them.

As Rothbard writes:

“In February 1906, Upton Sinclair’s The Jungle was published and revealed many alleged horrors of the meat packing industry. Shortly thereafter, Roosevelt sent two Washington bureaucrats, Commissioner of Labor Charles P. Neill and civil service lawyer James B. Reynolds, to investigate the Chicago industry. The famous ‘Neill-Reynolds’ report that apparently confirmed Sinclair’s findings, in fact, only revealed the ignorance of the officials, as later congressional hearings indicated that they poorly understood how slaughterhouses worked and confused their inherently foul nature with unsanitary conditions.”

After “The Jungle” came out, J. Ogden Armour, owner of one of the biggest packing firms, defended government inspection of meat and said that the large packers had always favored and pushed for inspection. Armour wrote:

“Attempt to evade it [government inspection] would be, from the purely commercial viewpoint, suicidal. No packer can do an interstate or export business without Government inspection. Self-interest forces him to make use of it. Self-interest likewise demands that he shall not receive meats or by-products from any small packer, either for export or other use, unless that small packer’s plant is also ‘official’—that is, under United States Government inspection.”

There you have it. The big players in the industry actually favored government intervention.

Thomas E. Wilson, representing the large Chicago packers, said the following during the Congressional debate: “We are now and have always been in favor of the extension of the inspection, also to the adoption of the sanitary regulations that will insure the very best possible conditions. … We have always felt that Government inspection, under proper regulations, was an advantage to the live stock and agricultural interests and to the consumer.”

Imagine, that was 120 years ago, and we are still dealing with the same problem. No meat can be sold to the consumer without being processed by a plant certified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Even the quality of meats on the shelves are named according to official processing: USDA Prime, USDA Choice, and so on.

This has gradually put enormous pressure on small farmers who have to pay exorbitant prices for processing, when cheaper alternatives are readily available. Most small farmers would love to process their own meat on site and sell it directly to the consumers. But federal law forbids them from doing so. This has been true since 1906 and remains true today. The devastating results are the crisis we see today.

What about the issue of safety? Federal regulation did nothing to improve it and much to degrade it. They used the “poke and sniff” method to investigate safety, and did so for decades after, even though this method was known to spread pathogens from one carcass to another. It would have been much safer without federal intervention.

I’m thrilled and surprised that we are finally getting some discussion of this important topic today. The meat cartel certainly needs to be broken up. But the best method of doing so is simply to dismantle the regulatory impediments to competition. Farmers should be allowed to process and sell meat in any way that is advantageous to them. You would think that this would be an easy sell in Congress.

Part of the reason this topic is so triggering is that people do not understand the real history of the U.S. meat industry. If people did understand, it would become much clearer how it is that so many federal agencies are captured by industry interests. Indeed, capture might be the wrong word. They were set up to help big business in the first place. Helping small business instead requires the real restoration of a genuine free market.

Members of the House of Representatives are back on Capitol Hill today for the first time in 54 days, to vote on legislation that would reopen the federal government by midnight, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

A Path to Reopening

Early Wednesday morning, around 1:30 a.m., the House Rules Committee cleared the way for lawmakers to take up a Senate-passed funding package. The plan combines a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through Jan. 30 with a three-bill “minibus” package.

• It will also reinstate federal workers fired during the shutdown and guarantee back pay. It will also prevent further layoffs through the end of January. 

• It also excludes an extension of advanced Obamacare premium tax credits – which Democrats caved on at the 11th hour. 

The full House vote is expected later this evening, likely around 7 p.m., Punchbowl News reports – after which it will head to Trump’s desk for his signature.

Republicans on the committee rejected Democratic attempts to amend the bill, including one proposal to extend expiring Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to preside over the swearing-in of Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) at 4 p.m. before debate begins. Grijalva, elected in September to fill her late father’s seat, has faced an unusually long delay before taking office – a delay that has frustrated Democrats, particularly because her vote is needed to release a new cache of Epstein files.

As Rabobank notes:

The end of the government shutdown should lead to the (delayed) release of economic data collected by federal agencies. This will end the episode of limited visibility for policy-makers and private sector decision-makers, who had to rely mostly on data provided by the private sector. The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September. The Employment Report for October may take more time to produce. What’s more, the quality of data collection in October (and early November) may have been compromised, undermining their reliability. This could even have a longer-lasting impact on year-on-year data, through November 2026.

Tight Margins and Calm GOP Leadership

With a razor-thin two-vote majority, Johnson and GOP leaders are urging all 219 Republican members to be in Washington. Flight disruptions that delayed lawmakers earlier in the week had eased significantly Tuesday, giving the leadership hope for a full turnout.

Despite the high stakes, Republican leadership and the Trump administration appear confident in support within their ranks. There are no immediate plans for Trump to directly lobby House Republicans, though aides said that could change if the vote tightens.

Several key conservatives – including Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Victoria Spartz (R-IN), and Warren Davidson (R-OH) – are being closely watched. Greene, who has rebranded her political image in recent weeks, has been sharply critical of Johnson’s handling of the shutdown.

That said, Rep. Andy Harris, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, offered his support – a signal that others on the party’s more conservative flank might fall in line.

Democrats Regroup After Failed Strategy

For Democrats, the six-week standoff has underscored the limits of using shutdowns as leverage. Party leaders had hoped the funding lapse would force Trump to break with Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and negotiate directly with Democrats – a strategy that failed to materialize.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) held his caucus together throughout the impasse, with only Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) breaking ranks on the initial continuing resolution. Some Democrats have expressed frustration over messaging as the shutdown winds down, arguing the party should pivot toward highlighting Republican responsibility for rising health care costs.

Janet Mills, the Democratic governor of Maine, criticized members of her party on MSNBC for backing the measure to reopen the government, saying Congress lacks a “backbone.” Thune’s promise for a future vote on renewing the Obamacare health insurance credits “doesn’t mean much to me,” said Mills, who is running for Senate.

Yet the moderates saw the future Senate vote — coupled with the legislation’s protections for the federal workforce and full-year spending for food aid — as a path to reopening the government. -Bloomberg 

There’s also growing chatter among House Democrats about Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) leadership, though the calls to replace him carry no practical weight in the upper chamber.

Getting Back To Normal

On Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that there would be “massively more disruption as we come into the weekend if the government doesn’t open,” adding “It is going to radically slow down, so the House has to do its work.” 

It could still take days for air travel to return to normal and probably longer for most of the 42 million low-income Americans enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to receive delayed benefits. Lengthy backlogs and delays are likely across the federal government as it reopens. –Bloomberg

What Comes Next

Once the funding package passes, Johnson plans to send members home for the remainder of the week. The speaker has warned of “long days and long nights” ahead – but not this week.

In the weeks to come, Johnson faces three major challenges:

1. A Short-Term Fix: The new continuing resolution extends funding for just 79 days, meaning another shutdown fight looms early next year. Negotiators must still resolve disagreements over contentious appropriations bills covering Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, Defense, and Homeland Security.

2. Health Care Deadlines: ACA premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of the year. Johnson will need to present a credible health care reform plan to prevent moderates from joining a discharge petition to extend the subsidies. Passing major health legislation within 49 days — during the holiday season — is a tall order.

3. Intraparty Disputes: Conservative members including Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Austin Scott (R-GA) are pushing to repeal a provision in the Legislative Branch appropriations bill allowing senators to sue the government if their phone records were obtained by the Justice Department.

Adding to the tension, by the end of the day, the Jeffrey Epstein records discharge petition is expected to reach 218 signatures, triggering a full House vote on whether to force the Justice Department to release the complete Epstein files. Vulnerable Republicans could face political blowback if they oppose the measure.

If tonight’s vote proceeds as expected, the federal government will reopen for the first time since Oct. 1 – but the brief reprieve may only set the stage for another high-stakes funding showdown early next year.

Oil prices are tumbling this morning, erasing yesterday’s gain as OPEC and IEA unveiled their latest global supply/demand outlooks…

OPEC flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies.

Demand:

• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3mln BPD unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• In the OECD, oil demand s forecast to grow by about 0.1mln BPD in 2025 while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln BPD.

• In 2026. global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• The OECD is forecast to grow by about 01mln BPD Y/Y. while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln Y/Y.

Supply:

• Non-DoC liquids product on (i.e. liquids production from countries net participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD Y/Y in 2025 revised up slightly by around 0.1mln BPD from last month s assessment, mainly due to received historical data n 2025.

• The main growth drivers are expected to be the US. Brazil. Canada, and Argentina

• The non-DoC liquids product on growth forecast for 2025 remains at 0 6mln BPD Y/Y. with Brazil. Canada. US and Argentina as the main growth drivers.

The report published this morning also indicated that the OPEC+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter.

Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.

This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026.

The organization cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.

Heading into 2026, OPEC’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October.

But, the International Energy Agency (IEA) leaned in hard in the demand side, stating that global demand for oil and gas will keep rising for the next 25 years unless governments change course, according to the Irish Times. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based IEA warns that on the world’s current trajectory, fossil fuel use will continue to climb with “no meaningful fall in CO2 emissions.”

The new Current Policies scenario reflects a shift in governments’ priorities toward energy security and affordability, a slowdown in electric vehicle growth, and a “declining” focus on climate action. “Climate change is declining – and declining rapidly – in the international energy policy agenda,” said IEA head Fatih Birol.

Until this year, the IEA had assumed fossil fuel demand would peak this decade — a position fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industry and the White House. The agency denied that U.S. pressure prompted the change, noting that it consulted all member governments.

In July, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright called the IEA’s previous “peak oil” modelling “total nonsense,” adding that Washington might “reform the IEA or withdraw its support.” The U.S. provides 14 per cent of the agency’s budget.

The Irish Times writes that major producers such as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE argue the world still needs oil and gas to meet rising power demand from artificial intelligence and improving living standards.

The Current Policies scenario assumes existing laws remain unchanged for 25 years. Oil demand grows from 100 million barrels a day in 2024 to 113 million by 2050, while EV sales plateau at about 40 per cent by 2035. The Stated Policies case — reflecting announced but not enacted measures — sees oil peaking at 102 million b/d by 2030, with half of all cars sold in 2035 being electric.

Both scenarios show strong gas demand and a peak in coal use this decade. Electricity demand rises roughly 40 per cent by 2035, or 50 per cent under a more ambitious Net Zero path, with 80 per cent of growth in solar-rich regions.

“For some people it is very optimistic, for some people it is very pessimistic,” Birol said. “We just put the scenarios on the table.”

Clean energy advocates note that renewables dominate future power generation in every case. “Nearly all new electricity demand – driven by manufacturing growth, AI, cooling needs, and the shift to electric cars – will be supplied by renewable energy,” said Bruce Douglas of the Global Renewables Alliance.

Finally, we thought it noteworthy that OPEC’s secretariat hailed this shift by its counterparts at the IEA, which before today had in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade

The IEA, has had a “rendezvous with reality,” OPEC said.

Early this week the UK government rejected a request from the European Commission for up to €6.75 billion ($7.8 billion) to join the EU’s flagship defense program, which marks a significant setback for post-Brexit relations under Prime Minister Keir Starmer and seen as another blow to European unity in efforts to counter Russia.

The European Commission reportedly proposed that the UK contribute between €4 billion and €6.5 billion to take part in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, and pay in an additional €150 million to €250 million in administrative fees. 

“We will only agree to deals that deliver value for the UK and its industry,” the UK government said in a statement of ongoing, secretive discussions. “Nothing has been finalized, and we will not provide a running commentary on ongoing discussions.”

British defense companies could gain access to the €150 billion SAFE program if an agreement is reached, which is seen as a vital part of the EU strengthening collective defense readiness. A few select non-EU countries including the UK and Canada, and even Turkey, are invited to participate.

Confirmation of Britain’s stance, which sees the European Commission’s proposed fees as far too high, also came in recent Financial Times reporting, which described:

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen dodged a meeting with the UK prime minister at COP30 in Brazil about Brussels’ demand that London pay billions of euros to secure improved ties.

Sir Keir Starmer sought the meeting to complain about EU demands that the UK pay up to €6.5bn to participate in a loans-for-weapons program and make separate contributions to the EU budget, according to two people briefed on the situation.

A UK official in follow-up said, “We weren’t trying to pin her down to talk about this specific issue. In the end they didn’t end up meeting. He hasn’t spoken to her for a while.”

A mere six months there was a high-profile summit (in May) which was widely seen as a formal “reset” in EU-UK relations. One top EU diplomat was quoted in FT as saying, “Europe’s defense naturally includes the UK.”

The EU is asking the UK to contribute €4–6 billion (plus a €150m admin fee) in return for letting British defense firms bid for up to 50% of a €150 billion EU rearmament fund.

Currently, the UK can only access 35%. France wants the cap kept at 50%.

Source: The Telegraph pic.twitter.com/QbHo9TZ5PY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 10, 2025

Bids for projects under the SAFE program are due by November 30, with intense discussions expected between the UK and EU sides to be ongoing until that point.

US futures are higher as the US takes another step to reopen with a House vote (expected to pass early evening on Wednesday, with Trump’s approval. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.4% higher with the mood buoyed by expectations of an imminent end to the government shutdown and a Fed rate cut next month. Bullish datapoints in the AI story from AMD and FoxConn/Hon Hai Precision are also helping lift Nasdaq futures 0.7% as Nvidia led gains across the Magnificent Seven in premarket trading. Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher and NVDA (+1.5%) and AVGO (+1.4%) boosting Semis while Nvidia partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. and Europe’s Infineon Technologies AG offered rosy forecasts. Cyclicals (ex-Energy) poised to outperform as the yield curve bull steepens with traders buying bonds to match yesterday’s rally in Treasury futures follower weaker than expected jobs data. USD is bid up pre-mkt; commodities are mixed with Energy and Ags weaker with Base higher, gold flat, and silver +1.2%. The macro focus today is on the House vote and mtge applications; XHB has outperformed the SPX by ~1% MTD; IYR and XLRE have outperformed by almost 2% MTD. On the calendar, there is no macro again, Trump is hosting Wall Street execs for dinner tonight. There is a firehose of Fed speaker: Williams (9:20am), Paulson (10am), Waller (10:20am), Bostic (12:15pm), Miran (12:30pm) and Collins (4pm)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.5%, Alphabet +0.7%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla +0.4%, Meta +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%) 

• Alcon (ALC) rises 5% after the eye-care company reported core earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gains 5% after the semiconductor company projected accelerating sales growth over the next five years.
• Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) is exploring options including a potential sale, people familiar with the matter said. Shares are up 11%.
• Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) declines 7% after the operator of drive-thru coffee bars announced its first earnings report since going public in September.
• Circle Internet (CRCL) falls 4% after the stablecoin issuer reported third-quarter reserve income hurt by a decline in the reserve return rate.
• Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. (CWAN) is considering a potential sale after receiving takeover interest, according to people familiar with the matter. Shares climb 9%.
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) gains 6% after the semiconductor-manufacturing company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Oklo shares (OKLO) rises 4% as analysts see the company’s US Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Design Agreement approval accelerating the licensing process.
• On Holding (ONON) climbs 9% after the Swiss sneaker brand boosted its sales forecast for the year after better-than-expected third-quarter results.
• RLJ Lodging (RLJ) gains 2.9% after Raymond James upgraded to strong buy following the stock’s significant underperformance this year.

In corporate news, Eli Lilly is dropping CVS’s drug benefit plan for its employees after CVS stopped covering its weight-loss drug in favor of a rival medication from Novo Nordisk. Visa is testing the ability for businesses to send stablecoins directly to consumers’ cryptocurrency wallets for global payouts. JPMorgan has started rolling out a deposit token JPM Coin. 

Markets are anticipating an end to the 43-day US government shutdown, with House members set to return to Washington to vote on a spending deal. Traders are betting that the resumption of data releases could bolster the case for interest-rate cuts amid lingering uncertainty over policymakers’ next move. Soft ADP jobs data on Tuesday has already prompted traders to price in a higher chance of rate cut. However, it won’t all be smooth sailing, with the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos warning that the data blackout has fueled Fed divisions.

“What I see is a wind of optimism and momentum in the US,” said Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Societe Generale SA. “Markets are currently buying 2026 amid a positive cocktail of resilient growth, AI investments, Fed cuts and a weaker dollar.”

AI remains front and center, with AMD predicting accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products, and Nvidia partner Hon Hai Precision giving a rosy outlook. Meanwhile, a senior researcher at AI startup DeepSeek warned that a severe labor market crisis is coming as automation wipes out most jobs, according to the South China Morning Post. And Fed Governor Barr said there need to be clear guardrails to prevent risks as the financial sector looks to adopt AI.

In strategy, Citi’s Beata Manthey said that near-term choppiness won’t stop global equities from realizing modest gains through the middle of 2026. And Goldman strategists expect emerging markets to deliver higher returns than US stocks in the next decade, helped by a weaker dollar and higher growth

Trump said the US needed skilled workers from abroad even as his administration has taken steps to make it harder for businesses to use the H-1B visa system. Trump is also said to be hosting financial industry executives for dinner Wednesday at the White House. The FDA named Richard Pazdur, a 26-year veteran of the agency, as its lead drug regulator.

Looking at earnings, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have topped analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed. Alcon is rising in premarket trading after the eye-care company reported core earnings that beat the average analyst estimate. TransDigm, GlobalFoundries and Circle Internet are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Earnings from Cisco, Flutter Entertainment and Tetra Tech follow later in the day.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up by 0.6%, with autos and banks outperforming. SSE shares rose to a record high on the electricity supplier’s new investment plan, lifting utilities shares. The autos sector also outperforms, while personal care products lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• SSE shares rise as much as 13%, hitting record high, after the utility company outlined its intention to spend £33 billion as part of a new investment plan.
• Alcon shares gain as much as 8.1%, the most since April, with the eyecare firm’s outlook confirmation coming as a relief to investors after two disappointing quarters.
• Azelis shares rise as much as 6.9% after EQT agreed to sell about 44 million shares of the Belgian chemical distributor to existing shareholders.
• ABN Amro gains as much as 4.9%, the most since Sept. 22, with a surprise announcement that the Dutch lender will buy NIBC for €960 million overshadowing a mixed-to-weak third quarter print.
• Bayer shares rise as much as 5% after the German company reported better-than-expected adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter, helped by the crop science division.
• Games Workshop shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most since late July, after Jefferies upgraded its price target by 54% to a street-high.
• Bidcorp rises as much as 4.7% in Johannesburg, the most since May after the food and beverage wholesaler reported 8.6% growth in trading profit for the four months to October.
• Edenred shares drop as much as 12% after Brazil’s president issues a decree regarding major regulatory changes to the country’s meal voucher and food voucher system.
• Taylor Wimpey shares fall as much as 4.1% after warning that uncertainty about potential tax changes in the upcoming UK budget is weakening the housing market.
• A2A shares fall as much as 7.6% after the firm reported Ebitda for the nine month period which declined year-on-year.
• FLSmidth’s shares fall as much as 9.8% after the firm lowered the range of its forecast for 2025 revenue below the average analyst estimate.
• Tesco shares slide as much as 3% after new data from NielsenIQ affirmed a weak October for food spend.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, on track for a third-straight day of gains, as optimism grew over easier Federal Reserve policy and a likely end to the longest US government shutdown on record.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 0.6%, set for its longest daily win streak in over a month. TSMC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Sony were among the top contributors to the gauge’s advance Wednesday. Major benchmarks rose in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Japan’s Topix index jumped over 1% while the blue-chip gauge Nikkei 225 saw a 0.4% gain. The performance gap was driven by a rotation away from technology shares after SoftBank Group sold its entire stake in Nvidia Corp., reviving concerns that valuations in the sector have become overstretched.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. Yen lags G-10 FX peers, despite a warning on the currency’s level from Japan’s finance minister.

In rates, treasury yields are lower by 1bp-4bp, with the curve steeper, after gapping when the cash market reopened after Tuesday’s US holiday. The move narrowed the gap with futures, which had a regular trading day and rallied on soft private-sector employment figures from ADP Research. US 10-year yields, richer by around 2bp on the day at 4.08%, opened below 4.07%; long-end tenors lag front-end and belly, steepening 2s10s spread slightly and 5s30s by more than 2bp. A curve-steepening selloff in gilts is a factor; UK 30-year yields are about 5bp cheaper on the day with politics in focus, after Health Secretary Wes Streeting denied plotting to oust Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Treasury auctions resume with $42 billion 10-year new issue at 1pm New York time notes, to be followed Thursday by $25 billion 30-year bond sale. Monday’s 3-year notes drew good demand. The WI 10-year yield at around 4.1% is about 2bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 0.8bp. Wednesday’s session includes 10-year note auction and several Fed speakers.

In commodities, Oil prices are lower, with Brent futures below $65/barrel. Gold is sanguine, holding close to $4,125/oz.

The US economic calendar is blank, while Fed speaker slate includes Williams (9:20am), Paulson (10am), Waller (10:20am), Bostic (12:15pm), Miran (12:30pm) and Collins (4pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +1.2%
• CAC 40 +1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -4 basis points at 4.08%
• VIX -0.1 points at 17.21
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1219.38
• euro little changed at $1.1571
• WTI crude -0.9% at $60.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US House lawmakers are expected to vote today to end the 43-day government shutdown. It may still take days for air travel to return to normal and probably longer for SNAP recipients to receive delayed benefits. BBG
• GM asked thousands of its suppliers to eliminate parts sourced from China and shift to alternative supply chains to mitigate the risks of geopolitical disruptions. Some suppliers now have a 2027 deadline to completely end their China sourcing ties. RTRS
• The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences. WSJ
• President Donald Trump is expected to host a private dinner at the White House on Wednesday with several top business executives, including the chief executives of Nasdaq and JPMorgan Chase. The gathering underscores Trump’s effort to deepen ties with corporate leaders as his administration rolls out new initiatives aimed at strengthening U.S. capital markets and rebuilding critical domestic supply chains seen as vital to national security. RTRS
• Beijing is taking an aggressive approach to help its technology giants squeezed by America’s chip restrictions. Shortages of advanced semiconductors are so acute that the government has begun intervening in how the output of China’s largest contract chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, is distributed. Chinese authorities are trying to give priority to the needs of tech conglomerate Huawai. WSJ
• China’s purchases of American soybeans appear to have stalled, less than two weeks after the US touted a wide-ranging trade truce that signaled thawing relations between the world’s two biggest economies: BBG
• China is grappling with a glut of soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for U.S. exports despite a recent trade truce that Washington said includes a pledge by Beijing to resume heavy purchases. Traders and analysts warn that vast stockpiles at ports and in state reserves, coupled with weak crush margins, limit Beijing’s appetite for further purchases. RTRS
• Economists are questioning the unexpected rise in UK unemployment to 5%, which rattled markets and sparked political criticism of Labour’s economic policies. BBG
• Venezuela has placed its entire military on alert as tensions ratchet higher with the US. WaPo
• Global oil and gas demand will rise for the next 25 years if the world does not change, the IEA has said, in a new scenario that reflects governments’ fading commitment to climate change. The IEA previously thought it would peak this decade, which was hotly contested by the oil and gas industry and the White House. FT
• Coming out of the government shutdown, -50K (new Goldman jobs call) would be worst NFP print since Dec 2020 (omicron surge). Jobs/Payroll data: Potential for Oct + Nov reports to be published in a concentrated 7 day window at the start of December, or even on the same day on 5th Dec. This is setting up the market for a highly consequential window of data just before the Dec FOMC. Goldman
• White House is exploring rules that would upend shareholder voting with the Trump admin examining new measures to curb the influence of proxy advisers and index-fund managers: WSJ.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said that they are going to lower some tariffs on coffee, according to a Fox News interview.
• Dutch Economy Minister Karremans said he spoke to EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic about Nexperia and said they are both determined to ensure that supply chains are restored as quickly as possible, while they are committed to securing supply in the semiconductor space and are working closely with European and International partners.
• US and Saudi officials have held intense negotiations in recent weeks to finalise a number of agreements, including a defence pact, ahead of Saudi Crown Prince MBS meeting US President Trump in the US next week, via Axios citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with the region indecisive amid light fresh catalysts and as participants digested earnings. ASX 200 was rangebound with upside limited as strength in the commodity-related sectors was offset by weakness in tech, telecoms, consumer discretionary and financials, while the latest Home Loans data from Australia firmly topped  estimates. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and traded on both sides of the 51,000 level in the absence of any key data and following a slew of earnings, including from SoftBank, which is pressured despite reporting a 191% rise in 6-month net, as it also announced a 4-for-1 stock split and that it offloaded its entire stake in NVIDIA. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the PBoC’s Q3 monetary policy implementation report, in which it reiterated to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen the transmission of policy, while an NDRC official recently noted private investment has slowed down this year, and there are challenges in private investment but also flagged a plan to support private investment to flow to high-value service sectors.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with Spain’s King that China is willing to work with Spain to build a comprehensive strategic partnership that is steadier, while he added that a relationship of trust has been forged between China and Spain.
• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said their best guess is that monetary policy is still restrictive, and the committee is debating this, while he added that if it turns out they are no longer mildly restrictive, that has important implications for future policy. Hauser also stated that there are some ups and downs in consumption readings, with the central case being for a gradual, modest recovery and noted there are no levels of unemployment that will make the central bank happy.
• Japanese PM Takaichi says appropriate monetary policy is very important and they will be coordinating closely with the BoJ to attain economic growth.
• Two new members of Japan’s top government economic panel are calling for larger economic stimulus Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) have opened largely firmer, once again carrying on the positive momentum displayed over the last two days. The FTSE 100 underperforms with sentiment in the region hit amidst fears that PM Starmer’s leadership is “vulnerable”. European sectors are also primarily in the green. The biggest winners thus far today are Utilities (+1.1%), Banks (+1.1%) and Automobiles & Parts (+1.3%). The latter has been boosted by a broker upgrade for Ferrari (+2%). For the Tech sector, Infineon (+6.6%) soars after reporting strong Q3 metrics and providing solid AI-related commentary.

Top European News

• UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting announces his support for UK PM Starmer Any talk of a challenge against PM Starmer is self-defeating and not true. Have not had talks with anyone about getting rid of Starmer. Adds that the PM is not fighting for his job.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering an increase in taxes on alcohol in line with elevated inflation, via CityAM citing sources.
• ECB’s Kocher says that given recent data, a somewhat stronger growth outlook is not impossible. Would not be too surprising if ECB hold rates steady in 2026. If inflation and growth projections play out, rates may not change for a long time.

FX

• DXY is flat/modestly firmer and trades in a very busy 99.44 to 99.61 range, with newsflow exceptionally quiet today. Focus in the prior session was ultimately on the dire weekly ADP prelim estimate, which led to some pressure in the USD. Docket today thins out from a data perspective, but a slew of Fed speakers will take the spotlight; Fed’s Paulson, Bostic, Williams, Barr, Waller, Miran, Collins and Treasury Secretary Bessent are all on the docket. Markets remain focused on government shutdown developments. To recap briefly, the US passed a funding bill to end the longest-ever shutdown in the prior day – this was then voted 8-4 by the House Rules Committee to advance it to the House Floor for consideration. Expectations are for the bill to be passed (albeit subject to dissent); overall, this will keep the US government funded till at least January 30th.
• EUR is essentially flat vs the USD. Failed to breach 1.16 to the upside in overnight trade, making a peak at 1.1588, to then fall back towards session lows of 1.1571. It is worth highlighting that the EUR is mildly stronger vs the broadly weaker GBP (which is suffering from political related pressure). European-specific newsflow has been exceptionally light today. Featuring an unrevised German inflation report, whilst Italian Industrial Output topped the most optimistic of analyst expectations. Docket should pick up later in the day, in the form of ECB speak via Schnabel (Hawk) and de Guindos (Dove) – no text release is expected from either.
• JPY is the worst-performing G10 currency today, given the generally positive risk environment with other haven assets generally sold (ex-gold). ING opines that one reason to keep the USD/JPY higher, is Japan’s agreement to invest directly in the US. This pressure in the JPY has led to continued jawboning from the Japanese officials; overnight, Finance Minister Katayama said she has seen “one-sided and sharp foreign exchange moves” recently, adding that it is being watched with a “high sense of urgency”. Whilst in the past similar jawboning has helped strengthen the JPY, the comments overnight were unable to boost the currency today.
• GBP is pressured vs the USD today, with regional political uncertainty on the forefront of traders minds. On that, in the prior session, The Guardian reported that Downing Street was fearing that some of the PM’s closest viewed PM Starmer as “vulnerable” to leadership change in the wake of the Budget. More recently, Wes Streeting has come out to clarify his support for Starmer, adding that he has not had talks with anyone, regarding any attempts to oust his leader.
• Antipodeans are mixed today, with the Aussie sitting towards the top of the G10 pile whilst the Kiwi is essentially flat. Nothing really driving the modest outperformance in the Aussie today, but it is worth highlighting some massive option expiries in the Aussie; 0.6495-0.6505 (2.4bln), 0.6525-30 (1.2bln), 0.6550-60 (906mln).

Fixed Income

• USTs are pressured today, in-fitting with global bonds, as US paper scales back some of the ADP-related upside seen in the prior session and as risk sentiment today is boosted (equity futures firmer across the board). USTs currently trade at the bottom end of a 112-27 to 113-00+ range, and with price action relatively muted so far. Not really much on the data docket today, but a slew of Fed speakers will take the spotlight; Fed’s Paulson, Bostic, Williams, Barr, Waller, Miran, Collins and Treasury Secretary Bessent are all on the docket. Markets remain focused on government shutdown developments. To recap briefly, the US passed a funding bill to end the longest-ever shutdown in the prior day – this was then voted 8-4 by the House Rules Committee to advance it to the House Floor for consideration. Expectations are for the bill to be passed (albeit subject to dissent); overall, this will keep the US government funded till at least January 30th.
• Bunds lower at the start of the European day, opened at 129.19 with losses of a handful of ticks, briefly rebounded to a 129.24 peak with gains of a tick before getting dragged lower as the European risk tone continues to improve. Currently holding just off a 129.02 trough with downside of 21 ticks at most, if the move continues and the figure is breached then yesterday’s 128.97 base comes into view. Bunds also potentially lower in sympathy with Gilts (see below) given the speculation around UK PM Starmer and associated price action as we get ever closer to the November Budget. For Germany, no move to Final CPI, which was unrevised, as expected. More recently, remarks from ECB’s Kocher of note, as he said it would not be too surprising if the ECB holds rates steady in 2026, especially if inflation and growth projections play out as expected. A mixed Bund auction (2046 strong, but 2056 line garnered a 1.3x b/c), had little impact German paper at the time.
• This afternoon, the French National Assembly is to hold the first reading on the Social Security articles, with reference to the suspension of pension reform, set to occur around 14:00GMT. Politico writes that the articles should be adopted. Into this, OATS trade better than peers with the mood-music relatively constructive for PM Lecornu at this particular stage. Narrowing the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread down to 74bps, the lowest since August.
• Gilts are underperforming vs peers, scaling back some of jobs-related upside seen in the prior session, which saw odds of a December BoE rate cut boosted. Moreover, political uncertainty in the region has crept back into the markets following a report in The Guardian. On that, in the prior session, The Guardian reported that Downing Street were fearing that some of the PM’s closest viewed PM Starmer as “vulnerable” to leadership change in the wake of the Budget. More recently, Wes Streeting has come out to clarify his support for Starmer, adding that he has not had talks with anyone, regarding any attempts to oust his leader. Obviously today’s PMQs from around 12:00GMT onward will draw significant attention and both GBP and Gilt trades will watch for any signs of a drop in support for Starmer as we count down to the Budget; equally, a particularly strong performance could offset some of the pressure seen in Gilts this morning.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks grinded lower throughout the APAC session and have continued to move lower as the European session gets underway, despite the IEA releasing a report indicative of oil demand growth. After closing +1.6% in Tuesday’s session, WTI and Brent initially c. USD 0.50/bbl to a trough of USD 60.54/bbl and 64.71/bbl, respectively, as the market awaits reports from the EIA and OPEC. Most recently, Tass reported that Russia is prepared to continue talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. While there was no significant price action at the time, the complex has continued lower to USD 60.41/bbl and USD 64.30/bbl, respectively. Later today, the EIA and OPEC are expected to release their monthly oil reports. In its prior report, EIA raised its 2025 demand forecast and its view on global oil production, while OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 oil demand forecasts.
• Spot XAU continues to oscillate within Tuesday’s USD 4097-4149/oz band as the market awaits a flurry of Fed speakers that could hint of the direction of travel for rates. After peaking at USD 4145/oz, XAU fell lower as it was weighed on by a stronger dollar and the generally constructive risk tone. The yellow metal troughed just shy of Tuesday’s low before rebounding back higher and currently trading at USD 4125/oz.
• Base metals remain rangebound as the market waits for a fresh specific catalyst and having struggled to make any headway overnight amid an indecisive APAC session. Currently, 3M LME Copper is oscillating in a tight USD 10.79k-10.86k/t band despite the positive risk tone across Europe and stateside.
• ANZ sees gold prices peaking around USD 4,800/oz by mid-2026.
• IEA’s World Energy Outlook report stated that LNG supplies are to grow 50% or by 300bln cubic meters by 2030, while IEA sees no demand peak for oil before 2050 under the current policies scenario.

Geopolitics

• Russian defence units destroyed a Ukrainian drone heading towards Moscow.
• Russia is reportedly ready to resume talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, via Tass.
• Russia’s Kremlin says the reports of contact with London was true, adds that dialogue with the UK not continued as the UK showed no desire to listen to Russia’s position.
• Australian PM Albanese said Indonesia and Australia have concluded negotiations on a new bilateral treaty on common security, and if either or both countries’ security is threatened, the treaty commits them to consult and consider what measures may be taken, individually or jointly, to deal with those threats. Furthermore, the treaty commits Australia and Indonesia to consult at a leader and ministerial level on a regular basis on matters of security, while it represents a major extension of existing security and defence cooperation.
• US President Trump has sent a letter to the State of Israel President Herzog requesting that Israel PM Netanyau is pardoned, describing the trial as “unjustified”, via Jerusalem Post.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 7 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.6%, prior -1.9%
• 9:20 am: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Speech
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Paulson speaks on Fintech
• 10:20 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Payments
• 12:15 pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Economics Club
• 12:30 pm: Fed’s Miran Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 4:00 pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks at Community Banking Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Could today finally be the day that we know that the longest US government shutdown in history might be coming to an end? Assuming all their members have made it back to Washington through all the air traffic delays, the House is expected to vote today on a bill to keep most of the government open until January 30th and some agencies until September 30th next year. At this stage who knows whether we’ll see a mini version of what we’ve been through over the last 43 days as the end of January approaches, but that’s a topic for another day.

US markets struggled for much of yesterday following the euphoria of the shutdown ending over the previous 36 hours, weighed down by weakness in Nvidia (-2.96%) and a soft weekly ADP report. However, the S&P 500 (+0.21%) managed to turn higher after Europe closed, on what was otherwise a quiet day due to the Veterans Day holiday, which kept the US bond market shut. US futures continue to edge higher this morning. Meanwhile, Europe surged ahead yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+1.28%) hitting a record high and posting its strongest two-day performance since the Liberation Day turmoil in April.

In terms of those various drivers, matters originally weren’t helped in the US by the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which is still getting outsized attention given the government shutdown. That showed the US lost an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs over the four weeks ending on October 25, which added to fears that the labour market hadn’t held up into the shutdown. To be fair, this is a new high-frequency series, so it doesn’t have a long track record, but those fears were then compounded by the NFIB’s latest survey of small businesses. That showed a decline in the optimism index to a 6-month low of 98.2 in October (vs. 98.8 expected), and for the first since May, we also saw the share planning to increase employment fall slightly (to net +15% vs. net +16% previously). 

That data backdrop initially led to a risk-off move in the US, which was compounded by a fresh tech selloff. That came as Softbank announced it had sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83bn, as it plans to use the revenue to back further AI spending instead. So that led to a fall in Nvidia’s shares (-2.96%), which made it the worst performer in the Magnificent 7 (-0.21%), and dragged down US equities more broadly before the late rally. And even though US Treasury markets were closed for Veterans Day, bond futures pointed to lower yields across the curve, including at the 2yr and 10yr maturity. This morning they are -3.1bps and -3.3bps lower respectively. Fed funds futures dialled up the likelihood of another rate cut in December, which moved up to a 66% probability by last night’s close from around 63% the day before. So all this weighed on the dollar index (-0.15%) as well, which posted a 5th consecutive decline. 

Over in Europe, there was a completely different tone for risk assets from the jump, as the STOXX 600 (+1.28%) hit an all-time high, whilst the FTSE MIB (+1.24%) finally surpassed its 2007 peak yesterday to reach its highest closing level since 2001. Interestingly, that came despite some underwhelming data across the continent. For instance, the UK unemployment rate for the three months to September came in higher than expected at +5.0% y/y (vs. +4.9% est), whilst the number of payrolled employees dropped by -32k in October after an already-sizable downward revision in September. So that led to a clear reaction among UK assets as investors dialled up the likelihood of a BoE rate cut in December. Indeed, the probability of a cut went up from 72% at Monday’s close to 86% yesterday. And in turn, gilts saw a big outperformance, with the 10yr yield (-7.4bps) closing at its lowest level since December, at 4.39%. But outside of rates, the impact was more limited, with the pound sterling only down -0.19% against the US Dollar (after a bigger fall post data), whilst the FTSE 100 still advanced +1.15%. 

That negative data theme was clear elsewhere in Europe too. For instance, the German ZEW survey disappointed in November, with the economic sentiment indicator unexpectedly falling to 38.5 (vs. 41.0 expected), and the DAX (+0.53%) was the weakest performer among the major European indices. However, this survey is more second tier relative to the IFO. It was still an incredibly solid session, with most of the other big indices rising at least +1%, including the CAC 40 (+1.25%), and the IBEX 35 (+1.27%). Moreover, there was also a rally for sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-1.5bps) and BTPs (-1.1bps) all falling back. In France, that comes ahead of an expected vote on the Social Security financial bill today, before the budget’s revenue vote on November 17. Our French economist has an update on both of those (link here), and he even points out that neither might actually happen given the amendments for each that are yet to be discussed. 

Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning outside of Mainland China. The Hang Seng (+0.52%) is climbing, led by technology stocks, and reaching a level not seen in over a month. The KOSPI (+1.08%) is also strong. The Nikkei index (+0.22%) has turned higher while I’ve been writing this, with Softbank recovering from -8% losses to around -3% as I type. Mainland Chinese stocks are lower, with the CSI index down by -0.40% and the Shanghai Composite decreasing by -0.25%, on reports suggesting that Beijing intends to limit US military access to rare earth materials. S&P 500 futures are up +0.17% and NASDAQ 100 futures +0.40%. 

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Germany’s September current account balance, Italy’s September industrial production, and Canada’s September building permits. From central banks, we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Miran, Paulson and Bostic, the ECB’s Schnabel and de Guindos, and the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings include Cisco and TransDigm

The Trump-Xi trade agreement cooled the tit-for-tat trade war between Washington and Beijing, paving the way for a more stable phase of negotiations. Both sides have made notable concessions: China curbed exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals, and the two countries agreed to suspend reciprocal port fees.

Beijing also launched a flurry of “goodwill” soybean purchases following the summit, but those imports have since stalled, Bloomberg reported. This development casts uncertainty over the trade deal and raises questions about whether it will hold through the end of the year.

Following an initial surge of Chinese buying late last month, agricultural traders told Bloomberg that new orders have abruptly stopped, raising doubts about Beijing’s commitment to the 12 million-ton target set by the Trump administration for the end of the year and the 25 million tons annually thereafter. 

“Within the industry, many view the reported commitment by China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans to be more of a diplomatic gesture than a firm trade deal,” said Kang Wei Cheang, an agricultural broker at StoneX Group in Singapore.

Everyone is throwing out how many million tonnes of Soybeans China is gonna buy without giving a frame of reference 📊🌱

25 million metric tonnes/year is right where we were just a few years ago. pic.twitter.com/WefXMIe9ay

— GrainStats 🌾 (@GrainStats) October 30, 2025

Rabobank grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia believes that China’s aggressive soybean purchases from South American countries earlier this year may suggest it has already met much of its demand, reducing the need for U.S. beans. 

Chinese crushers may import only a few million tons through early 2026 to bridge the gap before Brazil’s new crop arrives, far short of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s projections…

🚨 WOW! President Trump got Chinese President Xi to agree to buy “12 MILLION METRIC TONS of American soybeans this season.”

BESSENT: “For the next 3 years, they’re going to be buying a minimum of 25 MILLION METRIC TONS per annum.” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/kAMwj1w94W

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 30, 2025

One issue for Chinese buyers is that American beans are subject to a 13% tariff and priced above Brazilian spot prices. This would mean yield losses for processors. 

State-owned Chinese firms made the latest U.S. soybean purchases, likely intended to build strategic reserves rather than supply the commercial market. The next challenge is enforcement: how can the Trump administration ensure that China follows through on its commitments to buy U.S. agricultural goods, especially as the Supreme Court is soon set to rule on the fate of Trump’s tariffs?

The likely answer is sanctions.

The Department of the Interior announced on Nov. 7 two major steps to expand offshore oil and gas leasing under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, unveiling plans for the first lease sale in the Gulf of America and another proposed auction in Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

The measures are the first in a schedule of 30 offshore sales in the Gulf of America and six in Alaska, part of what the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) described as the Trump administration’s effort to “unleash American energy dominance” and cement the United States’ position as a global energy powerhouse.

“President Trump’s signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act marked the beginning of a new chapter for oil and gas development in the Gulf of America and Alaska’s Cook Inlet,” acting BOEM Director Matt Giacona said in the statement.

“BOEM is now moving forward with a predictable, congressionally mandated leasing schedule that will support offshore oil and gas development for decades to come.”

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the first sale – officially titled Big Beautiful Gulf 1 – will open roughly 80 million acres across the Gulf of America for leasing. The area spans approximately 160 million acres, containing an estimated 29.6 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and 54.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The Interior Department said the sale advances the president’s goal of boosting domestic energy output and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, while fulfilling the directives outlined in Trump’s executive order “Unleashing American Energy.”

To attract participation, BOEM set a 12.5 percent royalty rate—the lowest permitted by statute—for both shallow- and deep-water leases. Certain environmentally sensitive or legally restricted zones, including the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary and blocks beyond the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, will remain off-limits.

Alongside the Gulf of America sale, BOEM released a proposed notice of sale for Big Beautiful Cook Inlet 1, which would make about 1 million acres available for leasing in Alaska’s Cook Inlet. The sale is the first of six required by the One Big Beautiful Bill, scheduled annually from 2026 to 2028 and again from 2030 to 2032.

The proposed sale has similar terms to those of the Gulf sale, including the 12.5 percent royalty rate.

The offshore leases will help support high-paying jobs, coastal infrastructure, and state-level revenue sharing while bolstering federal finances, according to BOEM.

Proceeds from lease sales, rental fees, and royalties flow primarily into the Treasury’s General Fund, helping fund government operations, and portions go to Gulf Coast states for restoration and hurricane protection.

Oil Permits Continue Through Shutdown

The twin announcements come as the administration continues to prioritize conventional energy development during the ongoing federal government shutdown, which started on Oct. 1. According to contingency plans, the Interior Department will keep processing oil and gas permits—deemed essential to national energy security—while halting nearly all renewable energy activities, which Trump has criticized as costly and inefficient.

During his first term, Trump kept oil and gas permitting active throughout the 34-day government shutdown in 2018–2019.

President Barack Obama’s administration halted drilling permits and canceled at least one lease sale during the 2013 shutdown.

Some environmental groups have criticized the current administration’s decision to prioritize oil and gas permitting during the shutdown, saying it reflects a bias toward fossil fuel interests.

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Chris Wright blamed Democrats for refusing to back the Republican stopgap spending measure to keep the government open, writing on social media that his department remains committed to “delivering affordable, reliable and secure energy to the American people.”

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A majority of Germans oppose key government climate protection proposals such as banning combustion engines, restricting meat consumption, or imposing flat-rate taxes on air travel, according to a YouGov poll conducted shortly before the 30th UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil.

The survey suggests that citizens are more likely to back environmental measures that either benefit them directly or avoid placing major financial burdens on households.

As reported by Stern, 69 percent of respondents said they opposed a ban on diesel and petrol vehicles, while 68 percent were against limiting weekly purchases of meat and dairy products, while 56 percent rejected the idea of higher air travel costs through a flat-rate ticket tax.

Conversely, strong majorities supported subsidies for energy-efficient housing (69 percent), measures to strengthen domestic production (71 percent), bans on single-use plastics (69 percent), and higher taxes on high-emission companies (66 percent).

The German government has pledged to reach climate neutrality by 2045 — sooner than many industrialized nations—but its progress in reducing emissions has slowed, particularly in the transport and housing sectors.

According to the survey, while most Germans agree that climate change is a serious issue and largely caused by human activity, the willingness to change personal behavior remains limited.

Only around a quarter of those surveyed said they would voluntarily reduce air travel or meat consumption, or switch to an electric car.

Even fewer expressed willingness to stop eating animal products altogether or to buy only second-hand clothing. Measures that are convenient or low-cost — such as avoiding single-use plastics or adding greenery to balconies — were far more popular.

Despite a reluctance to alter lifestyles, 46 percent of Germans believe the worst effects of climate change can still be prevented if drastic changes are implemented, while 16 percent think the status quo is sufficient, and 15 percent believe it is already too late to avert the crisis.

Concern about global warming has nonetheless declined: 63 percent say they are worried about the issue, the lowest figure for two years, as global conflicts, inflation, and energy prices take center stage.

Read more here…

Trust is the social glue that binds communities, shapes institutions, and fuels economic activity.

The infographic below, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, ranks 90 economies by the share of adults who agree that “most people can be trusted,” using nationally representative survey data from 2022, published 2024.

The data for this visualization comes from Integrated Values Surveys, accessed via Our World in Data.

Ranked: Most and Least Trusting Countries

Denmark leads with 74% of respondents saying that most people can be trusted, followed closely by Norway (72%) and Finland (68%).

Note: From samples of roughly 1,000–1,500+ interviews of adults per country, conducted in waves. Responses shown to the question, “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you need to be very careful in dealing with people?” Possible answers include “Most people can be trusted”, “Do not know” and “Need to be very careful”. The UK includes England, Scotland, and Wales, with Northern Ireland listed separately. Figures are rounded. Major processing done by Our World in Data.

Long-standing welfare systems, low corruption, and transparent governments foster consistent high trust across the Nordic region.

Middling Trust in the Anglosphere and Western Europe

English-speaking nations occupy the middle of the pack. New Zealand (57%) and Australia (49%) perform better than Canada (47%), the UK (43%), and the U.S. (37%).

Western European countries show similar dispersion: Switzerland (59%) and the Netherlands (57%) outpace Germany (42%), France (26%), and Italy (27%).

Differences in income inequality and political polarization help explain these gaps.

ℹ️ Related: See which countries are the most politically polarized.

Low-Trust Soceities

Several Latin American nations—Peru (4%), Nicaragua (4%), Colombia (5%), and Ecuador (6%)—rank near the bottom.

Chronic political instability, high crime rates, and economic volatility contribute to scarce interpersonal trust.

In the Middle East, Iraq (11%), Lebanon (10%), and Egypt (7%) also report very low levels, reflecting decades of conflict and governance challenges.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out How Much Do Different Countries Trust Institutions? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Tony Dawson via TheCritic.co.uk,

Tommy Robinson (also known as Stephen Lennon) was last week acquitted of an offence contrary to schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000. Robinson had been accused of breaching the criminal law after he failed to provide the PIN access code to his mobile.

He had been stopped by the police on 28 July 2024 having approached the Channel Tunnel at Folkestone.

The decision by District Judge Sam Goozée is a welcome push back against a draconian and easily abused power.

To explain, Schedule 7, paragraph 2(1) provides that:

An examining officer may question a person to whom this paragraph applies for the purpose of determining whether he appears to be a person falling within section 40(1)(b).

Section 40(1)(b) details that a terrorist is a person “concerned in the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism”. The power may be exercised at a port or border area where a person is entering or leaving Great Britain or Northern Ireland.

Paragraph 18  of Schedule 7 then goes on to create an offence of contravening an obligation under the Schedule and gives a maximum penalty of 3 months imprisonment.

What makes the power unusual is that an officer is not required to have reasonable suspicion before questioning a suspect, as would normally be the case. Section 24 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 conversely, for instance, requires that an officer must have “reasonable grounds for suspecting” that an offence has been committed and may arrest a person whom he suspects being guilty of it. The lack of a reasonable suspicion requirement in Schedule 7 gives police officers immensely broad powers with a great potential for abuse.

Further, a person who has been stopped is not entitled to the right to silence. Beghal v DPP  [2015] UKSC 49 determined that privilege would not apply to the process as its ultimate purpose was not to gather information prior to charge. If evidence was to be used, it might be excluded under section 78 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act. Of course, in practice, evidence may be used and a judge may decide against excluding it. As Lord Kerr observed in a dissenting judgment:

There is, currently, no guarantee that someone who gives a self-incriminating answer in the course of a Schedule 7 inquiry will not be confronted by those answers in a subsequent criminal trial. He may succeed in having evidence of those answers excluded but he cannot ensure that he will not be prosecuted on foot of them. I consider therefore that the requirement in Schedule 7 that a person questioned under its provisions must answer on pain of prosecution for failing to do so is in breach of that person’s common law privilege against self-incrimination.

Some recent cases give good examples of the use to which the police put their powers. @AkkadSecretary, as known on X, posted a video on YouTube describing a stop when he returned from the United States on 28 January 2025. He was detained, given access to a lawyer before his interview, but not during it, and was forced to reveal the passwords to his devices so that the police could access them. He was asked about his opinions on Russia and the war on Ukraine. He was further asked about what he thought about the UK and its policies and the West in general. The police kept his devices, so that he was forced to buy a new train ticket, as he only had his previous ticket on his phone. In his video, he cited further instances where stops were made, including in the cases of Paul Golding and Lauren Southern.

There have, however, been instances where the courts have constrained the powers. In R (on the application of Miranda) v Secretary of State for the Home Department  [2016] EWCA Civ 6, the Court of Appeal found that the use of the power when stopping and questioning David Miranda, the since deceased husband of Glenn Greenwald, had been contrary to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) since Miranda was holding material which was designed to assist his husband’s journalism. The Court of Appeal made its determination since there were no adequate safeguards against the arbitrary use of the Schedule 7 powers. The Code of Practice on the use of Schedule 7 was since amended to take journalism into account.

Beghal v United Kingdom (app no 4755/16) in the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) also showed a stronger position against schedule 7. The applicant, Sylvie Beghal, was a French national resident in the UK. She was held and questioned for 9 hours at East Midlands airport after she returned from visiting her husband in France, who was serving a prison sentence on a terrorism offence. The ECtHR found that the combination of the long period under which a person could be detained, the lack of safeguards, the lack of presence of a lawyer, lack of reasonable suspicion and the ability to compel answers to questions together meant that there was a violation of Article 8 (private life) of the ECHR. In practice, since the 9 hour term of detention had been reduced, the UK could argue that there was further control, so Beghal has not had a significant impact on the use of schedule 7. The judgment did not find that lack of reasonable suspicion or self-incrimination per se marked breaches of the Convention.

In Cifci v CPS [2022] EWHC 1676 (Admin) established that a person could not be convicted of an offence under schedule 7 unless the decision to stop was lawful and that a stop would be unlawful if it constituted unlawful discrimination contrary to the Equality Act 2010. The High Court said that two questions should be asked:

(i) was the purpose of the stop for the statutory purpose set out in para 2(1) of Sch.7? and (ii) did the appellant’s protected characteristics have a significant influence on the decision to stop? These are separate questions and each must be asked.

In Cifci, however, the appellant had not been subjected to unlawful discrimination and the stop was therefore lawful.

The police have elsewhere conceded that their use of powers were unlawful. In 2024, a French activist was stopped under the powers and asked whether he had taken part in anti-government protests and whether he backed President Macron. He was awarded substantial damages after he brought a claim for misfeasance in public office and false imprisonment.

It is against this background that Tommy Robinson was acquitted. The law has developed safeguards, albeit limited ones, to prevent searches from being arbitrary. As controversial as Robinson is, due to his connection with the now disbanded English Defence League, his previous convictions and his strong criticism of Islam, schedule 7 is designed for a specific purpose and must be exercised within that purpose in a non-discriminatory way.  

District Judge Sam Goozée described the events surrounding the stop and detention. PC Thorogood Robinson recognised Robinson as Robinson approached the police booth driving alone in a Bentley. The selection decision was made after 34 seconds. The officers described Robinson’s behaviour as being suspicious, that he was stopped because he was not the registered driver of the vehicle and that he was travelling a long distance to Benidorm on short notice. There were unexplained delays when Robinson was stopped. The total delay before detention appeared to be 40 minutes.

District Judge Sam Goozée found that the stop itself did not fulfil the statutory purpose under the Terrorism Act. The officers involved had vague recollections of the events leading to Robinson’s stop and of the questions asked. Robinson had been stopped primarily because of who he was, rather than under selection criteria.

Moreover, the stop had also related to Robinson’s beliefs, as protected under the Equality Act. The officers might have attempted to justify their actions by asking questions linked to political activities and the possibility of links terrorism. Yet, the lack of recollection meant that the stop was discriminatory.

The authorities will doubtlessly argue that schedule 7 provides a useful means through which the police can gather evidence on suspicious persons potentially linked with terrorist activity and that there should be some flexibility in how it is applied; and, indeed, Cifci, on the Equality Act, has the potential to cause numerous problems if police become too restrained in making stops based on the political or religious beliefs of suspicious persons at borders. The use of the power, though, has most certainly been abused. Figures have been stopped merely for fishing expeditions based on views that diverge from the centre. As such, it will be a welcome development if the police are more cautious in exercising their powers in the future.