Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will fund food stamps for November at reduced levels, Trump administration officials said on Nov. 3.

The USDA will spend billions of dollars in contingency funds, but will not use any additional money, administration lawyers said in a court filing.

That means many SNAP recipients will only receive half as much in benefits as they usually do, the lawyers said.

The government met its deadline of 12 p.m. on Monday to give an update on funding the federal food stamp program, known as SNAP, for November.

U.S. District Judge Jack McConnell previously ruled that the USDA had to at least partially fund the November benefits by using contingency money allocated in federal law “as may become necessary to carry out program operations.”

“Because of the lack of appropriations for Fiscal Year 2026 (i.e., ’the shutdown’), use of those contingency funds has now become required because available funding is necessary to carry out the program operations, i.e., to pay citizens their SNAP benefits,” McConnell said in a Nov. 1 order.

Congress allocated $6 billion in contingency funds, but nearly $1 billion has already been spent, administration officials have said. Officials had resisted using the contingency money, saying it was unavailable because there was no more underlying funding for SNAP in place due to the government shutdown that started on Oct. 1. Congress has not yet reached a deal to reopen the government or provide new funding for SNAP.

McConnell ordered officials to fund SNAP from the bench during a hearing on Friday. President Donald Trump later on Friday said that he directed White House lawyers to seek clarification on how the administration could keep funding SNAP.

SNAP payments were suspended on Nov. 1 as that unfolded.

It costs about $9 billion to fund SNAP each month. SNAP pays an average of $187.20 a month to electronic cards for about 42 million people, according to the USDA.

McConnell suggested Saturday that officials should “find the additional funds necessary (beyond the contingency funds) to fully fund the November SNAP payments.” They could draw from a tranche of more than $23 billion that came from tariffs, he said.

If officials choose to fully fund November payments, they must do so by the end of Nov. 3, he said; however, if officials choose not to fully fund the November benefits, they are to use the total remaining contingency funds to make a partial payment by Nov. 5.

In the new filings, officials said that they recently paid $450 million in contingency funds to states for SNAP administrative expenses and $300 million for unrelated grants. They said that they will pay another $450 million for SNAP operations and an additional $150 million for the Nutrition Assistance Program grants.

That leaves $4.6 billion in contingency money for November SNAP benefits, which “will all be obligated to cover 50% of eligible households’ current allotments,” Patrick Penn, a USDA official, said in a declaration to the court.

People whose SNAP applications are verified in November will not receive any money, according to the document.

The USDA is preparing to notify states of the update on Nov. 3, which will prompt states to calculate how much in benefits each household will receive, Penn said.

States will likely have difficulty distributing the reduced SNAP benefits, he said.

“For at least some States, USDA’s understanding is that the system changes States must implement to provide the reduced benefit amounts will take anywhere from a few weeks to up to several months,” he said.

Officials said they opted not to use tariff revenue or additional money because those funds are required for child nutrition efforts and other programs.

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Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That’s why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33 and key agencies like the BLS have halted official economic data releases, leaving private high-frequency data sets to fill the void.

The latest box shipment data from Bloomberg, citing a report by the Fibre Box Association, shows some of the weakest volumes in years, reflecting waning consumer sentiment and potentially signaling a subdued holiday shopping season. These shipments were at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2015.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that box orders remained flat or below normal in October, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month low and manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month. 

The economic picture is cloudy: US manufacturing surveys were mixed in October, while Goldman analysts warned the other day about waning consumer sentiment. 

“We’re not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy,” Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther warned last month, adding, “And these starts and stops that we’ve seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business.”

Here are dismal earnings from top box makers companies point to a slowing economy: 

• Smurfit Westrock posted an 8.7% YoY decline in Q3 North American box volumes, sending shares to their lowest since mid-2024.

• Packaging Corp. of America shares also slid, and International Paper cut its sales outlook for both 2025 and 2027, triggering a nearly 13% stock plunge.

• International Paper now expects US box shipments to fall 1–1.5% in 2025, reversing earlier forecasts for growth, citing soft consumer sentiment, trade uncertainty, and a sluggish housing market. CEO Andy Silvernail said targets were “obviously” adjusted downward absent a “major pickup” in US and European volumes.

Dismal box shipments and earnings build on an earlier report from Deloitte’s holiday sales forecast released in early September, which warned that the upcoming holiday shopping season could see one of the slowest growth rates since the pandemic (read report). 

Meanwhile.

Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker at 4.0% https://t.co/CUj9betrQL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025

Just a mixed picture. 

Update (1405ET):

Kimberly-Clark shares remain down around 14.5% in late-afternoon trading.  If the losses hold into the close, it would mark the company’s steepest one-day drop since October 16, 1987, or just days before the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987. Earlier, the Kleenex maker unveiled plans to acquire Tylenol producer Kenvue in a $48.7 billion cash-and-stock deal. The announcement sent Kenvue soaring, up 20%. 

Shares of Kimberly-Clark are at their lowest point since late 2019. 

Wall Street analysts are divided on the proposed merger between Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. Some expect short-term pressure on the stock, while others praised the merger as “strategically transformative”…

Commentary from Wall Street desks (courtsey of Bloomberg):

RBC Capital (Nik Modi)

• Says the deal is strategically transformative for Kimberly-Clark in the long run as it adds significant positive diversification to its business mix

• “We believe it will take investors some time to process the long-term implications and would expect KMB shares to come under pressure today and likely trade sideways until investors get more context around recent KVUE regulation/litigation headlines as well as confidence that Kimberly-Clark can turn Kenvue’s business around“

Vital Knowledge (Adam Crisafulli)

• “KVUE brings some iconic brands into the KMB umbrella, and the ~$21/shr purchase price isn’t extremely expensive (this only gets KVUE back to where it was trading in Sept.), especially considering ~$2B in synergies, but KMB investors will be wary of the deal given the mounting legal risks facing Tylenol”

• Says the consumer staples industry has struggled for several quarters due to macro pressures. KVUE has experienced particular strain given company-specific challenges, such as management turnover and scrutiny from the White House

Bloomberg Intelligence (Diana Gomes)

• Says Kimberly-Clark’s cash-and-stock offer for Kenvue reinforces the view that any recovery in Kenvue sales is based on an aggressive step-up in investment, which would act as a further drag on mid-term profit

• “Another Kenvue organic sales miss in 3Q and lack of overlap in over-the-counter and beauty limits realization of synergies, pegged at 8% to combined operating expenses” 

 *   *   * 

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation announced it will acquire Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at nearly $49 billion, marking one of the largest consumer health mergers in history. 

Kimberly-Clark revealed in a press release that the deal values Kenvue at 14.3x its latest twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA. In return, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and .14625 Kimberly-Clark shares per Kenvue share, for a total of about $ 21.01 per share. The deal is valued at $48.7 billion. 

The deal is expected to close in 2H 2026. Upon completion, Kimberly-Clark shareholders will own 54% of the combined company, while Kenvue shareholders will own 46%. Both boards have unanimously approved the acquisition. JPMorgan Chase is providing committed financing for the deal. 

The merger unites two mega consumer-product giants, creating a global health and wellness powerhouse with top brands, including Kleenex, Huggies, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid, that reach consumers worldwide. 

Here’s the justification for the merger:

• Combines Kimberly-Clark’s commercial execution and digital marketing capabilities with Kenvue’s science-backed innovation and healthcare professional networks.

• Expands global footprint across key growth categories in personal care and health.

• Enhanced R&D and quality investments to accelerate product innovation and address evolving consumer health needs.

• Kimberly-Clark CEO Mike Hsu will continue leading the merged company, supported by senior executives from both firms.

Based on Kimberly-Clark’s current projections, the merger would generate 2025 annual net revenues of about $32 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $7 billion. 

All sounds great, but this comes at a time when Tylenol faces political scrutiny via the Trump administration, warning mothers to avoid giving their newborns acetaminophen.

Related:

• “Don’t Take It”: Trump Warns Pregnant Women To Avoid Tylenol Over Autism Concerns

• Tylenol Manufacturer Resists Proposed Label Changes

In markets, Kimberly-Clark shares tumbled 15%, while Kenvue shares jumped 20%. 

The question now is whether government regulators will approve the deal, especially given President Trump’s recent comments surrounding Tylenol.

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China will halt investigations targeting U.S. companies involved in the semiconductor supply chain and issue licenses to exporters of rare earth and other minerals critical to high-tech industries, according to the White House.

Following months of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping on Oct. 30 sat down together in South Korea, to make a deal on a range of issues that have strained ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing agreed to postpone, for one year, the implementation of the export controls on rare earths and related products that it had announced on Oct. 9. In addition, the Chinese regime will “terminate various investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations,” according to a fact sheet released by the White House on Nov. 1.

As part of the agreement, the Chinese regime will issue “general licenses” valid for exports of rare earth, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite, the fact sheet stated. The licenses are designed for the “benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world,” effectively lifting the restrictions the regime imposed in October 2022 and April of this year, it said.

The White House didn’t specify which U.S. technology companies might be excluded from Beijing’s scrutiny. The regime’s most recent target is Qualcomm. The regime’s State Administration of Market Supervision launched an antitrust probe into the U.S. chip-making giant on Oct. 10.

Under the deal, China will also take “appropriate measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China, allowing production of critical legacy chips to flow to the rest of the world,” the White House said.

Though headquartered in the Netherlands, chipmaker Nexperia is owned by Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Wingtech Technology.

The regime recently blocked Nexperia from shipping certain products, the company said on Oct. 14, citing an export control notice it received from China’s commerce ministry. That sparked concerns about critical disruptions in the supply chain for U.S. and European automakers.

On Nov. 1, the Chinese commerce ministry issued a statement indicating plans to relax restrictions on goods produced by Nexperia’s Chinese branches.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News shortly after the Trump–Xi summit on Oct. 30 that Washington and Beijing could sign the trade deal as soon as this week.

There’s no question that Western Hemisphere defense is back in the Trump 2.0 era. 

In fact, it’s a theme we’ve explained to readers throughout the year: the Pentagon’s strategy to reorient U.S. defense priorities away from endless wars in the Middle East and toward safeguarding the homeland and the Western Hemisphere as the world fractures into a dangerous bipolar state. This pivot is commonly referred to as “Monroe Doctrine 2.0.”

The focus has been squarely on the Caribbean Sea, particularly off the coast of Venezuela, where an unprecedented buildup of U.S. military assets is underway, including missile destroyers, 10,000 soldiers, 6,000 sailors, surveillance aircraft, and what may have even been a dry bomb run by B-1 bombers last month.

More interesting has been the expanded deployment of high-altitude surveillance blimps, equipped with Lockheed Martin L-88 radar systems that detect aircraft and/or vessels over hundreds of miles. This expansion of blimps is feeding the Caribbean Air and Marine Operations Center and other command-and-control hubs, giving U.S. forces real-time situational awareness across the region.

Defense Blog reports: 

The United States has intensified the use of its tethered aerostat radar system operating out of Lajas, Puerto Rico, expanding persistent airborne surveillance across the Caribbean amid growing regional security concerns.

The long-standing system, equipped with the Lockheed Martin–built Tethered Aerostat Radar System (TARS), has been flying more frequently in recent weeks, according to defense monitoring sources

Created for border security and counter-narcotics missions, the Puerto Rico TARS site now acts as a forward radar post, monitoring and expanding the U.S. military’s surveillance network, bolstering military, Homeland Security, and counter-smuggling operations in the region. This is much cheaper to operate than conventional patrol aircraft or warships.

In short, the expanded deployment of TARS is more evidence of bolstering hemispheric operations and provides an early-warning sentry for both narcotic and national security operations. 

By Benjamin Picton, senior markets strategist at Rabobank

Welcome, Monsieur, sit yourself down,
And meet the best innkeeper in town…

Markets last week were understandably in risk-on mode in reaction to the sit-down meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the APEC conference. The US agreed to cut fentanyl-related tariffs in half to 10ppts in return for cooperation from China on stemming the flow of precursor compounds into the United States. China agreed to delay the imposition of export controls on critical rare earths for one year, and to resume purchases of US soybeans to the tune of 12mmt this season and 25mmt in each of the next three years. Both sides agreed to delay the introduction of port service fees and the US – crucially – made no commitments to provide China with access to NVIDIA’s advanced Blackwell chips or revise its position on Taiwan. On the latter, Donald Trump yesterday told 60 Minutes that the topic never came up because “they know the consequences” if China was to attack Taiwan.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said that China had made a “real mistake” by threatening to withhold rare earths from foreign countries. “It’s one thing to put the gun on the table. It’s another thing to fire shots in the air.” He also chided the “grumpy old men” of the Wall Street Journal editorial board for thinking that China would not use the leverage over rare earth supply chains that it had spent 25 years building while the US was “asleep at the switch”.

Master of the house, doling out the charm,
Ready with a handshake and an open palm…

The US has been quick to capitalize on the sense of urgency created by China’s willingness to exploit its dominant position. Bessent says that the US has now rallied its allies to “get out from under the sword” that China holds over other countries by building out their own rare earth supply chains.

Trump has recently inked deals with Australia, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam that are designed to create alternative sources of supply. The US may yet conclude a similar deal with Brazil – which holds the world’s second-largest rare earths deposits after China – after President Lula last week intimated that his country was on the cusp of concluding a trade deal with the United States. Brazil is seeking ways to convince the USA to reduce its punitive 50% tariff, but progress on a deal may be hampered by Lula’s perceived closeness to China and policy differences over Venezuela, where Trump told 60 Minutes that the Maduro regime’s days are numbered.

For its part, the EU is also exploring the potential for rare earths supply deals with Australia, Canada, Greenland, Chile, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine while also working on plans for domestic processing, joint purchasing and stockpiling of materials.

Glad to do a friend a favor,
Doesn’t cost me to be nice,
But nothing gets you nothing,
Everything has got a little price!

Trump also used meetings with the leaders of Japan and South Korea to extract commitments to provide capital investment into beefing-up US shipbuilding capacity, with commitments made in return to facilitate the construction of nuclear-propelled submarines for South Korea. We’ve previously described these kinds of investment commitments as a ‘reverse Marshall Plan’ to recapitalize the US industrial base (as the US did for Europe after WWII), but the intent goes well beyond blue-collar job creation for the MAGA base. The focus on shipbuilding is aimed squarely at closing the current production gap with China and perhaps allowed Trump to make concessions on port service charges in his subsequent meeting with President Xi.

In a similar vein, the FT yesterday reported that Trump administration officials are discussing ways to encourage other countries to adopt the US Dollar as their official currency to counter China’s efforts to internationalize the Renminbi and erode the Dollar’s position as world reserve currency (as we wrote about last week). Argentina is seen as an obvious candidate for Dollarization by some, given its history of currency crises, friendly government and recent history of financial bailouts orchestrated by the US Treasury.

Prospective homebuyers in Australia might also be attracted to the idea of taking responsibility for maintaining the purchasing power of the currency out of the hands of the RBA. Figures this morning revealed that Aussie house prices are now growing at the fastest pace in more than two years following three RBA rates cuts and some fiscal pump-priming dressed up as help for first homebuyers. Perhaps Dollarization down under wouldn’t be such a bad idea?

Charge ‘em for the lice, extra for the mice,
Two percent for looking in the mirror twice…

Meanwhile, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering a 20% ‘settling-up’ tax on the assets of people emigrating from the country. The new tax would reportedly raise about £2bn/year and would apply to the sale of assets such as company shares. The Guardian quotes an unnamed government source claiming that Treasury is currently modelling the policy ahead of the November budget. The source is apparently stressing that no decisions have yet been taken, but news that the policy is being considered surely raises the risk of capital flight as wealthy Britons are further incentivized to get their money out of the country before the Exchequer can change the rules.

The search for new sources of revenue is becoming desperate as the FT last week reported that the Office of Budget Responsibility is likely to downgrade its forecast for trend productivity growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points, thereby blowing a £21bn hole in the budget. The matter is further complicated by Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase any of the three big taxes (income tax, VAT or national insurance), and the inability of Reeves and PM Starmer to secure backbench support for relatively modest cuts to the welfare budget earlier in the year. Consequently, the UK is potentially facing something of a Laffer curve moment as the unstoppable force of government spending faces the immovable object of fiscal reality.

When it comes to fixing prices,
There are a lot of tricks I knows…

While the UK considers a soak the rich strategy to deal with its budget constraints, New York City looks set to elect Zohran Mamdani as Mayor. Mamdani has run on a left-wing populist platform of price controls for rents, groceries and childcare, which he says will be funded by taxing corporations and the 1%. Donald Trump has been critical of Mamdani, describing him as a “communist” in his interview with 60 Minutes, while New York Governor Kathy Hochul (a Mamdani supporter) has prompted questions about the likelihood of the Mamdani program actually being implemented after telling the ‘Raging Moderates’ podcast that she is “concerned about outmigration of people who are the ones who are supporting our budget.”

Perhaps the Laffer curve is about to be tested in NYC, too?

Ukraine has sent special forces to the embattled eastern city of Pokrovsk, the country’s top military commander announced over the weekend, after the Kremlin has said that thousands of Ukrainian troops are surrounded in Pokrovsk.

The strategic city is considered to be “the gateway to Donetsk” – and its loss would be a huge blow to Ukraine’s logistical abilities across the eastern front lines. Kiev has rejected Putin’s claim to have the whole city surrounded and blockaded. “We are holding Pokrovsk,” Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskii wrote on Facebook Saturday. “A comprehensive operation to destroy and dislodge enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing.”

Kiev’s response involves the special forces units being sent to bolster potentially trapped Ukrainian forces – though this could soon prove too little, too-late. “Kyiv announced Saturday it had deployed special forces to the eastern city of Pokrovsk, where it is under pressure from an intense Russian assault involving thousands of troops,” The Moscow Times wrote.

Recent days have seen Moscow and Kiev issue conflicting back-and-forth statements about the fighting in the city, with Russia’s Ministry of Defense claiming that its troops had already defeated the Ukrainian special forces deployed there. It even later released videos purportedly showing two captured Ukrainian soldiers.

Gen. Syrskii has admitted that Ukrainian forces are facing their “hardest” time there currently. But he’s still rejected Moscow’s narrative of total battlefield encirclement of the city.

“The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] operators and assault units,” Syrskii has said.

Russian officials over much of the past year of fighting there have consistently articulated that seizing Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Kostiantynivka would allow Moscow to advance north toward the last major Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro. 

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will indeed be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Russian forces have continued to make significant advances, and as a result, most of Pokrovsk is now under Russian control.

West of Pokrovsk, Russian forces established full control over the railway line from Udachne, and began pushing beyond… pic.twitter.com/KrMi4RzqiW

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) November 2, 2025

Russia’s military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

“At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media,” according to Kyiv Post reporting on the situation last week.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Trump administration has banned the media from an area of the White House they previously had access to after some reporters were discovered surreptitiously capturing video of sensitive information.

Officials revealed that reporters have also been found ‘spying’ on private, closed-door meetings in the White House and wandering into already restricted areas near the Oval Office, in order to “ambush” Cabinet officials after private meetings.

The White House released a memo Friday stating:

This memorandum directs the prohibition of press passholders from accessing Room 140 in the West Wing, also known as “Upper Press,” which is situated adjacent to the Oval Office, without an appointment. This policy will ensure adherence to best practices pertaining to access to sensitive material.

As a result of recent structural changes to the National Security Council, the White House is now responsible for directing all communications, including on all national security matters. In this capacity, members of the White House Communications Staff are routinely engaging with sensitive material.

In order to protect such material, and maintain coordination between National Security Council Staff and White House Communications Staff, members of the press are no longer permitted to access Room 140 without prior approval in the form of an appointment with an authorized White House Staff Member.

Members of the press may continue to freely engage with White House Press Aides in the Lower Press Area outside of the Briefing Room. In order to meet with White House Communications Staff in Room 140 or “Upper Press,” press must request an appointment by emailing Press.Appointment@who.eop.gov. This policy is effective immediately.

Ironically, the restrictions being put in place are a rollback to Clinton era White House rules.

BREAKING🚨: Trump White House returns to early (ultimately reversed) Clinton WH policy, cuts off access for credentialed press to upper press office. FLASHBACK: https://t.co/Sys5FdmU3v pic.twitter.com/o7ZqfhoZQp

— Josh Gerstein (@joshgerstein) October 31, 2025

Communications Director Steven Cheung later clarified the reasons for the crack down, providing more details:

Some reporters have been caught secretly recording video and audio of our offices, along with pictures of sensitive info, without permission

Some reporters have wandered into restricted areas (our offices are feet away from the Oval Office)

Some reporters have been caught… https://t.co/tosUqrcKGt

— Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) October 31, 2025

Post continues…

Some reporters have been caught eavesdropping on private, closed-door meetings.

Cabinet Secretaries routinely come into our office for private meetings, only to be ambushed by reporters waiting outside our doors.

Cheung further outlined that the media can still have “access to lower press where the press team sits and can answer all inquiries,” and “[r]eporters can make appointments to see us in our offices.”

So much for the Trump White House working to be as accessible as possible.

They abused their privilege.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2025

Reporters caught secretly recording and entering restricted areas not “journalists,” they’re violating federal law. Any private citizen would be arrested for attempted espionage or trespassing. Why should the press be above the law @SecretService?

— Andrew Conway (@AIConway08) October 31, 2025

If they were secretly recording anything to do with national security, they should be tried under the espionage act.

— MattyO (@MattyOYT) November 1, 2025

In light of recent hostilities, we need to take extra precautions to secure this administration—not just in terms of personnel, but intel as well.

— The Conservative Alternative (@OldeWorldOrder) October 31, 2025

The move comes after the Pentagon instituted new regulations on the media regarding which outlets can gain credentials to cover the Department of War.

The Pentagon also revised rules on which areas of the building the media can and can not go, citing a need for heightened security and protection against leaks.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Amid the month-long vacuum of macro data, thanks to the shutdown, ‘soft’ survey data has become almost the only leg left standing to judge the economy by (absent the housing data).

Following better-than-expected prints across Europe, and beats in Brazil and Canada, this morning’s S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 52.5 (52.2 exp), up from 52.0 – tracking hard data higher.

That signaled a third successive month that the S&P Global PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark and indicative of a solid improvement in operating conditions that was in line with the survey’s trend pace.

The PMI was supported in October by concurrent and accelerated gains in both output and new orders.

Production was increased at a solid pace, whilst the gain in new orders was the best recorded in 20 months. Growth in new work has been registered consistently throughout the year to date, albeit to varying degrees, and panelists noted in October an uplift in market demand and success in securing new contracts. However, October’s growth was increasingly reliant on the domestic market as new export orders faltered.

BUT…

…as usual in the baffle ’em with bullshit world, ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, falling from 49.1 to 48.7 (worse than the 49.5 exp) – the 8th straight month of contraction (below 50)

Source: Bloomberg

“US manufacturers reported a solid start to the fourth quarter with production rising at an increased rate in response to an encouragingly robust jump in new orders,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“However, lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy.”

“Most worrying is the unprecedented rise in unsold stock reported in October, widely linked to weaker than anticipated sales to customers, especially in export markets, which could trigger a downshifting of production in the coming months unless demand revives.

Indeed, ISM shows prices falling fast and new orders and employment improving MoM (though both below 50 – contracting).

The index of prices paid for raw materials fell 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the start of the year. Since a recent peak in April, during the height of the tariffs rollout, the price gauge has dropped nearly 12 points…

Source: Bloomberg

Companies have also become less optimistic about the year ahead, with sentiment back down close to the gloomy levels seen around the April tariff announcements.

“US trade policy uncertainties are again a big factor in dampening business spirits, with tariff policies being increasingly blamed both on rising export losses and import supply chain disruptions.

These export and import worries are being exacerbated by more domestically focused political concerns, including the federal shutdown, which are manifesting themselves most prominently in consumer-focused industries.”

Tariffs remained a key source of higher input costs during October with S&P Global’s latest data showing another round of historically elevated inflation – albeit the lowest since February.

Selling prices were raised markedly in response, and to a quicker degree than September’s recent low.

Finally, Williamson notes that business confidence among producers of consumer goods is now down to its lowest for two years “as firms growing increasingly worried about household spending in the US and falling sales to consumers in export markets.”

President Trump offered some candid and revealing thoughts on his Russian and Chinese counterparts Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during a CBS 60 Minutes interview which aired Sunday.

Trump has not appeared on the program in a half-decade, but had much to say, especially regarding America’s two top ‘superpower’ rivals. He called Putin and Xi “very strong leaders” who are “tough” and “smart” but which are “not to be toyed with.”

When asked which of the two was more difficult to deal with, Trump replied “both”. He described they are “Both tough. Both smart. They’re both very strong leaders. These are people not to be toyed with” – and seemed conciliatory without going on the verbal attack.

He followed with more commentary which suggested a high degree of respect for them as leaders. “They’re serious people, not the type to walk in talking about how nice the weather is,” Trump conceded.

Trump also in the interview took the opportunity to reiterate that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have occurred under his leadership.

“That was a war that would’ve never happened if I was president,” he said, and then noted Putin had himself acknowledged this. “I inherited a country where Putin thinks he’s winning. Joe Biden was the president when it happened.”

It was at this point in the interview that Trump said he has “a very good relationship” with Putin while expressing hope that the US-Moscow relations can be turned around.

Despite setbacks, including the effective cancelation of the Budapest summit, Trump expressed he hopes to get a lasting truce in Ukraine “in a couple months” – though battlefield realities suggest this remains wishful thinking and not based in any solid developments toward peace or compromise.

“We’re gonna get it done… [Putin] wants to come in and he wants to trade with us, and he wants to make a lot of money for Russia, and I think that’s great,” Trump said.

As for China, one notable moment was addressing rare-earth minerals and potential tit-for-tat amid a trade war. “We got no rare-earth threat… We have tremendous amounts of dollars pouring in, because we have very big tariffs, almost 50%,” Trump explained.

Russian media has been taking note…

‘Putin & Xi NOT to be toyed with’ — Trump pic.twitter.com/PpS6bdjdUZ

— RT (@RT_com) November 3, 2025

This rhetoric from the president in the 60 Minutes interview seems a marked change compared to that of early September, wherein he said the following:

President Donald Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday of “conspiring against” the United States as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended China’s military parade commemorating the end of World War II and victory over Japan.

“May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Still, the general vibe and tone of the fresh CBS appearance seemed a return to Trump as ‘peace president’ who is more interested in major deal-making around the globe as opposed to starting conflicts. However, we should note that Venezuela would certainly not agree with such a characterization of Washington policy at this point.