US equity futures are signaling a solid start to November, led by Tech with small caps flat, as traders gauge the durability of a seven-month global equity rally fueled recently by strong tech earnings and easing US–China trade tensions. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futs rose 0.6% as of 8:00 am ET. Pre-market, Mag7 are all higher with Semis also bid; Cyclicals poised to lead Defensives with both higher. European and Asian equities also rose. Global bonds softened, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.11%. Commodities are mixed with Ags leading, Metals weaker, and Energy mostly lower ex-natgas. Oil fluctuated after OPEC+ signaled that it’ll pause output increases next quarter ahead of expected demand declines / supply glut. China suspended curbs on rare earths and suspends chips investigation. Gold first dropped but then rebounded back over $4k after China imposed a 7% value-added tax on gold for jewellery and industrial use. Today SCOTUS will hear IEEPA tariff challenges with JPM noting that the market expects those tariffs to be struck down and later replaced by sectoral tariffs and could trigger a near-term squeeze/broadening subject to moves in the bond market. We also get US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and October ISM manufacturing (10am); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (12pm) and Cook (2pm). Earnings from Palantir and Diamondback Energy follow later in the day. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.8%, Meta +0.9%, Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.2%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.01%, Microsoft +0.4%).

• Alvotech (ALVO) plunges 23% after the drugmaker said the FDA rejected its biologics application for a biosimilar candidate to Johnson & Johnson’s Simponi, and cut its 2025 outlook as a result.
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) rises 21% after signing a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads.
• Eaton (ETN) slips 1% after agreeing to buy the Boyd Thermal business of Boyd Corp. from Goldman Sachs for $9.5 billion.
• IREN Ltd. (IREN) soars 22% after Microsoft Corp. signed an approximately $9.7 billion deal to purchase AI cloud capacity from the Australian company, becoming its largest customer.
• Kenvue (KVUE) jumps 19% after Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy the struggling Tylenol maker in a deal worth roughly $40 billion. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) shares slump 15%.
• Liquidia (LQDA) rises 11% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the third quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate. The company also reported loss per share for the quarter that was lower than expectations.
• New Gold Inc. (NGD) climbs 10% after agreeing to be acquired by Coeur Mining Inc. for about $7 billion in an all-stock deal.
• SM Energy Co. (SM) and Civitas Resources Inc. (CIVI) agreed to combine in an all-stock transaction, the latest move to consolidate the US shale industry. Shares of SM Energy are up about 1%, while the stock of Civitas Resources (CIVI) rises 2%.
• Vertiv (VRT) rises 1.8% after entering into an agreement to buy Purge Rite Intermediate from Milton Street Capital LLC for ~$1b in cash at closing plus the potential additional consideration of up to $250 million in cash based on achieving certain 2026 performance metrics.

In corporate news, Pfizer sued Metsera and Novo Nordisk to block Novo’s rival bid for the obesity startup. Alphabet is expected to raise a total of at least €3 billion ($3.5 billion) in six euro-denominated bonds, to help fund AI expansion. BP agreed to divest stakes in US shale assets to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion as it seeks to shore up its balance sheet and win back investor confidence. 

The six-month bull run in US stocks is set to continue as markets brush aside concerns over stretched valuations, with earnings beating expectations and big tech fueling optimism around AI. Investors are gearing up for earnings from Palantir and a slate of private economic reports for fresh direction on the path for interest rates. Palantir, one of the year’s biggest beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence boom with a 165% gain, was poised rally further ahead of results due after the close. 

Investors are set to again rely on private data this week given the government shutdown, which includes the ISM manufacturing index on Monday and ADP employment figures on Wednesday. While there is a risk that a flood of economic data could hit once the shutdown is over and reignite volatility, the subdued VIX gauge has seen call buying at a high pace. And speaking of the shutdown, it is on track to become the longest in history. 

“Earnings growth is there, the momentum is there and on a macro level — although it’s still very volatile — things are moving in the right direction,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services. “I don’t see any reason for the rally not to consolidate and even go higher.”

With earnings in from six of the Mag-7, quarterly profit growth is tracking at ~27% for the group, compared with 15% expansion anticipated before the reporting season started, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Nvidia is now larger than six of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 Index and all but five of the world’s stock markets.

Out of the 318 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 83% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 13% have missed. The S&P 500 is on pace for 13% earnings growth, up from 7.2% expected at the beginning of October. US earnings are surging across the board with the median stock in the Russell 3000 tracking its fastest growth since 3Q21, Morgan Stanley said, supporting a view that a new cycle and bull market began in April. Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin sees earnings beats as unprecedented except the Covid reopening in 25 years of data. 

As reported over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile soared to a record $381.7 billion in the third quarter, while the firm declined to buy back shares for a fifth straight quarter. Operating earnings surged 34% as its insurance underwriting profit more than tripled.

In trade, China ended a gold tax break, in a setback for consumers in one of the world’s top bullion markets. The US is expected to suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting next week. China is said to seek buying US wheat for the first time in a year. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4%, with automakers leading gains after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban. Energy shares advance alongside oil prices as OPEC+ is set to pause its output increases in the first quarter of next year. Autos gain after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• GTT advances as much as 6.2%, to a new record high, following an upgrade to its guidance after the market close on Friday.
• European energy companies are outperforming this morning as oil prices advanced after OPEC+ signaled that it’ll pause output increases next quarter, following a modest hike for next month.
• A2A gains as much as 6.4% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, saying the firm is an “under-the-radar” potential beneficiary of any Milan-region data center build-out.
• European autos shares rise after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban in a decision that should “alleviate short-term supply risk for OEMs and their suppliers,” say Oddo BHF analysts.
• MFE-MediaForEurope’s Class A shares gain as much as 5.7% as JPMorgan initiates coverage with an overweight rating.
• BFF Bank surges as much as 11%, the most since May, after the Italian firm said the Bank of Italy has lifted the ban on the distribution of profits, which analysts at Deutsche Bank say is fueling a relief rally in the shares.
• Paradox Interactive gains as much as 12% after video-game critics published their reviews of the Swedish studio’s key 2H 2025 release, strategy game Europa Universalis V.
• Davide Campari-Milano shares fall as much as 6%. Italian prosecutors have ordered the seizure of around €1.3 billion in shares from the holding company that controls Campari as part of an alleged tax-fraud probe, according to a statement late Friday.
• Ryanair shares fall as much as 3.6%, taking a breather after ongoing strength in share performance. Europe’s largest budget airline reported post-tax profit in the second quarter that topped estimates, driven by in-line fare growth and strong cost control.
• FLSmidth falls as much as 4.6% after Nordea cut its recommendation on the Danish industrial equipment firm to hold from buy.

Asian stocks rose, lifted by gains in South Korea’s chipmakers after a slew of technology partnerships bolstered sentiment. Equities in Hong Kong extended their advances in afternoon trading.  The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 0.9%, rebounding after two sessions of losses. Gauges in South Korea were the biggest gainers in the region, with the benchmark Kospi hitting a fresh record high. Shares on mainland China reversed early losses to close higher, while those in the Philippines fell. A series of partnerships between Nvidia and some of South Korea’s biggest companies has reinforced optimism in the country’s equities, supported by an improving relationship with the US. Sentiment in Asia also got a boost following several trade deals struck during US President Donald Trump’s tour of the region last week.

In rates, treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve, following similar price action in German bonds while gilts outperform slightly. US yields are as much as 3bps cheaper on the day with the curve slightly steeper. 10-year near 4.11% outperforms Germany’s and trails UK’s, each by about 1bp. US session includes manufacturing PMIs and at least two Fed speakers. IG dollar issuance slate includes two items so far and is expected to grow, with underwriters anticipating $55 billion this week and around $120 billion for November; Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year new issues. Google announced another massive, 8-part debt deal as the funding scramble to use debt to pay for datacenters continues. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady while the Swiss franc is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Spot gold slips back below $4,000/oz.

In commodities, oil prices are near flat after giving up earlier gains seen after OPEC+ said it planned to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026. WTI crude futures are just below $61 a barrel. Gold trimmed early gains but remained above $4k as haven demand faded, while the dollar held steady. On Friday, China ended a gold tax break, in a setback for consumers in one of the world’s top bullion markets. 

Today’s economic calendar slate includes October S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and October ISM manufacturing (10am); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (12pm) and Cook (2pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.8%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.08%
• VIX +0.4 points at 17.8
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.48
• euro -0.2% at $1.1515
• WTI crude little changed at $60.96/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a potential new mission to send U.S. troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels. NBC
• More than 735,000 New Yorkers cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday’s mayoral election, the highest ever early in-person turnout for a nonpresidential vote in the city. NYT
• US Democratic and Republican Senators are talking and focused on finding agreement on FY26 spending bills; the hope being that a spending agreement could help to resolve the shutdown. On spending, talks continued over the weekend and there is some optimism around a resolution. However, there are no signs from Trump/Republicans around giving ground on extending the expiring premium Obamacare subsidies: PunchBowl
• Fed’s Miran (voter) warned that the Fed risks a recession if it doesn’t cut rates rapidly: NYT
• President Trump says that Chinese President Xi Jinping has given him assurances that Beijing would take no action toward its long-stated goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China while the Republican leader is in office. CNBC
• Trump threatened to take military action in Nigeria and cut off US aid if the government doesn’t halt militants’ “killing of Christians.” The country’s dollar bonds tumbled, suffering the biggest losses across emerging markets. BBG
• Trump urged Senate Republicans to terminate the filibuster rule. Trump separately commented that they will ask the courts how they can legally fund SNAP benefits as soon as possible.
• Bessent said the Trump administration will not appeal the judge’s ruling on SNAP benefits, while he also commented that the Fed should be cutting rates if inflation is dropping, according to an interview with CNN.
• NVDA’s most advanced chips will be reserved for U.S. companies and kept out of China and other countries, U.S. Trump confirmed in 60 Minutes last night. RTRS
• A private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity showed Chinese factories continued to expand production in October, albeit at a slower pace, signaling weaker growth momentum heading into the fourth quarter of the year. China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI for Oct came in at 50.6, down from 51.2 in Sept and a bit below the consensus forecast of 50.7. WSJ
• China is seeking to buy US wheat in what would be the first purchase in more than a year, following last week’s trade truce between the two nations. BBG
• China will suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare-earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the chip supply chain, the White House said. BBG
• Microsoft and Alphabet plan more deals to build out their AI infrastructure. Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion agreement to buy cloud capacity from Australia’s IREN, giving it to access more Nvidia chips, while Alphabet plans to raise at least €3 billion in a debt offering, a person familiar said. IREN also said it agreed to buy equipment from Dell for $5.8 billion. Shares of both firms jumped in premarket trading. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump commented on Friday about China, in which he stated that he would love to get rid of the extra 10% tariff and that the meeting with China was incredible, while he believes the deal with China will be long-lasting. It was also reported that US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that chip sales are “between you and NVIDIA”.
• US President Trump said the US will not let China have NVIDIA’s (NVDA) most advanced chips, while he also commented that he will not attend Supreme Court tariff case arguments and doesn’t want to do anything to deflect the importance of that decision. Furthermore, Trump posted that the case on tariffs is one of the most important in the history of the country, and if a President is not allowed to use tariffs, the US will be at a major disadvantage against all other countries throughout the world, while he warned if they lose the decision, the US could be reduced to almost third-world status.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China has shown itself to be an unreliable partner in many areas, while he also commented, “we’ll see” if a 10% tariff will be enacted on Canada after the Reagan advertisement, and he is not planning on going to the Supreme Court arguments on trade policy on Wednesday, according to CNN.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it will consider exemptions for the Nexperia chip export ban. It was separately reported that Nexperia’s Dutch headquarters said it welcomes announcements lifting the block on shipping chips, while the Dutch government said that China talks continue regarding a constructive way forward in Nexperia.
• Chinese President Xi proposed that China and South Korea properly manage differences through friendly consultations, while he called for the sides to strengthen strategic communication and consolidate the foundation of mutual trust. Xi also called for deepening China and South Korea cooperation in emerging sectors such as AI and biopharmaceuticals, as well as urged South Korea to work with China to practice true multilateralism and safeguard the multilateral trading system.
• South Korea’s presidential office said South Korea and China signed 7 MOUs, including a currency swap. It was also reported that a South Korean presidential adviser said they agreed with China to cooperate on stabilising supply chains and will continue working-level communication on China’s ban on Korean culture, while South Korea and China were said to have made progress on China’s effective ban on Korean culture.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said they agreed with Chinese President Xi to build a constructive and stable relationship, while she said they reaffirmed a strong US-Japan alliance through US President Trump’s visit. Furthermore, Takaichi said they are not planning to renegotiate the USD 550bln investment package with the US even after seeing the US-South Korea package.
• Canadian PM Carney met with Japanese PM Takaichi on the APEC sidelines and discussed the potential to expand a productive economic relationship between the two countries, building on USD 32bln in annual two-way merchandise trade, while the Canadian PM’s office said they stand ready to negotiate an even better trade deal for both Canada and the US.
• China’s MOFCOM says China and the EU held in-depth and constructive talks on mutual export control concerns; both sides agreed to maintain dialogue to support stable and smooth supply chains between the economies.
• China is said to be seeking to buy US wheat for the first time in a year, according to Bloomberg sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks trade mostly higher despite a lack of fresh major macro developments over the weekend and with thinned conditions as Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. ASX 200 lacked conviction as gains in tech, energy and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, real estate and miners, while the RBA also began its two-day policy meeting, where the central bank is unanimously forecast to maintain its Cash Rate at 2.60%. KOSPI rallied to a fresh all-time high amid tech strength with notable gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while South Korea and China reportedly signed 7 MOUs and agreed to cooperate on stabilising supply chains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately higher although price action in the mainland was choppy with risk sentiment flimsy as participants digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.

Top Asian News

• Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Chan said the city is set to achieve its annual target of 2%-3% for 2025 and noted that the economy grew 3.8% in Q3, which was the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2023.
• South Korea and Singapore agreed to cooperate on defence technology and signed an MOU on AI and green shipping, according to Korea’s presidential office.
• RBNZ 2025 stress test results noted that large banks are well placed to withstand the solvency and liquidity impact of a severe scenario caused by worsening geopolitical risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly mixed and either side of the unchanged mark, but then caught a bid soon after the cash open. Upside lacked any specific drivers, but does come in the context of positive Nexperia-related developments and constructive EU-China trade talks over the weekend. European sectors opened with a negative bias, but are now mixed. Autos is by far the clear outperformer today, driven higher by the Nexperia developments over the weekend. In brief, China is to loosen its chip export ban to Europe – chips which were widely used amongst European automakers; Mercedes-Benz (+3.6%). Basic Resources is found right at the bottom of the pile, following China’s decision to pause rare earth export controls to the EU; Rio Tinto (-1.2%).

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering higher bands of council tax to target expensive homes, via FT citing sources who said the idea is well established, the discussion is on the implementation; would reportedly raise several billion pounds. (FT)
• EU is devising plans to expand supervision of key financial markets infrastructure, including stock exchanges, crypto exchanges and clearing houses, as it seeks to eliminate fragmentation in the single market, according to FT.
• German VDMA says German engineering order fell 19% Y/Y in September; domestic orders -5%, Foreign Orders -24%; July-Sept -6% Y/Y.
• ECB’s Kazimir says there’s no time or need to fine-tune or overengineer monetary policy. Would not read too much into small deviations from a desired inflation path. There’s a risk as broadly balanced for both the economy and inflation. The next move could be in either direction depending on the signals the ECB receives.

FX

• USD has kicked the week off on the front foot in a slight extension of last week’s upside which was triggered primarily by the combination of a more hawkish-than-expected Fed announcement and a thawing in trade relations between China and the US. Whilst official data releases are still lacking, this week will present a slew of private surveys, kicking off today with the ISM manufacturing print, which is expected to remain in contractionary territory vs. expectations of an expansionary print in the services metric on Wednesday. Today’s speaker docket includes Fed’s Daly and Cook. DXY has risen as high as 99.92 with focus on a potential test of 100; not breached since August 1st (100.25 was the high that day).
• EUR is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD with incremental macro drivers for the Eurozone on the light side in the wake of last week’s uneventful ECB policy announcement. Messaging since has reaffirmed the tone struck by ECB Lagarde with Nagel of Germany the latest to make the case that there is no need to adjust policy in the near-term based on the current outlook for the ECB. Note, Chief Economist Lane is due to speak @ 12:00GMT. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unrevised at 50, as expected with the accompanying report noting that “demand across the eurozone economy remained subdued”. On a more encouraging footing, China’s MOFCOM said China and the EU held in-depth and constructive talks on mutual export control concerns with both sides agreeing to maintain dialogue to support stable and smooth supply chains between the economies. EUR/USD has slipped to its lowest level since 1st August with a session trough at 1.1511.
• JPY is a touch lower vs. the USD with USD/JPY holding above the 154 mark. Japan was away from market overnight with newsflow surrounding Japan subsequently on the light side. The Japanese calendar is a light one this week aside from Cash Earnings data on Thursday. As it stands, markets price just a circa 28% chance of a BoJ rate hike in December. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 154.28 but is yet to test Friday’s best at 154.41.
• GBP is soft vs. the USD but flat vs. the EUR. Newsflow continues to centre on the November 26th budget with the latest reporting suggesting that UK Chancellor Reeves will target pensions of high earners and expensive homes. The potential outcomes for the budget are vast at this stage. However, consensus is gradually coalescing around the view that Reeves will attempt to establish a greater financial buffer via a range of tax increases (e.g. freezing income thresholds, expanding NIC coverage, etc) that are expected to be non-inflationary and growth restrictive. Elsewhere, UK manufacturing PMI has been revised a touch higher but ultimately still remains below the 50 mark. Cable has slipped to a low of 1.3118 but is holding above Friday’s 1.3097 base.
• Antipodeans are both are slightly more resilient than most peers vs. the USD with AUD managing to overlook a disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI print overnight, which was hampered by a sharp decline in export orders. Instead, attention is on tomorrow’s RBA policy announcement, with markets assigning a circa 94% chance of an unchanged rate in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation report.
• CHF is one of the laggards across the majors in the wake of softer-than-expected Swiss inflation data for October. Y/Y CPI unexpectedly slowed to 0.1% from 0.2% vs. consensus of a pick-up to 0.3%, whilst the M/M rate printed at just -0.3% (expected -0.1%, previous -0.2%); both prints were below the bottom-end of analyst forecasts.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks. Price action this morning was limited for USTs at first owing to the Japanese closure for Culture Day. USTs picked up a bit more into the European day alongside benchmarks generally and despite an uptick in equity performance. Action that took USTs to a 112-27 peak, nearly matching Friday’s 112-27+ high, last week’s 112-29+ best just above. Markets will get Cook (voter) and Daly (2027) later today, in addition to the refinancing estimates ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Before that, ISM Manufacturing hits and given the lack of NFP on Friday owing to the shutdown the employment component may draw even-greater attention than usual. This week, we will get ADP and Challenger but no JOLTs, weekly claims or as mentioned, NFP.
• OATs are modestly firmer. Friday’s Zucman tax measures failed to garner support in the National Assembly on Friday, though a slight adjustment was made to a real estate tax to target “unproductive wealth”. Supported by the Socialist Party, but markedly shy of the measures they seek. Amidst this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed a touch to just above the 78bps mark, potentially trading off the c. 10 day reprieve Lecornu may very well have.
• Bunds drifted lower overnight and then came under pressure this morning on the announcement of six-part EUR denominated Alphabet issuance, an update that sent Bunds to a 129.24 trough with downside of 15 ticks at most. However, the move proved somewhat short-lived with Bunds bouncing thereafter to 129.41, but still shy of the overnight early doors 129.46 peak. Upside that started around the European cash equity open and despite the equity tone picking up at the time amid the MOFCOM announcing in-depth China-EU talks. While firmer the action, as is the case with USTs, leaves Bunds just shy of Friday’s 129.49 best and last week’s peak at 129.73. No substantial move to the Final Manufacturing PMIs this morning, neatly surmised by HCOB as “fragile in Germany, in recession in France, persistently weak in Italy, and showing only subdued growth in Spain.“
• Gilts opened with upside of a handful of ticks at 93.65 before extending to a 93.74 peak in tandem with peers as outlined above, a high that just about eclipses Friday’s 93.71 best but stopped shy of 93.89 and 93.96 from earlier that week. No move to a slight upward revision to the Final Manufacturing PMI, but one that left it in contractionary territory. The release highlighted that manufacturing is in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on the domestic fiscal and geopolitical backdrop. Weekend press reports focussed on the fiscal situation, as Reeves is said to be preparing a pension tax raid of as much as GBP 4bln, according to The Telegraph. Additionally, the FT reports that the Treasury is looking into higher council tax bands, a tweak that could raise several billion pounds.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) mandates EUR-denominated 3yr, 6yr, 9yr, 13yr, 19yr & 39yr bonds; proceeds for general corporate purposes, incl. the repayment of outstanding debt,

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks initially gapped higher following the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday but have failed to hold onto gains, reversing back to the closing price of Friday’s session. WTI and Brent gapped and extended to a peak of USD 61.50/bbl and USD 65.32/bbl respectively before falling c. USD 0.80/bbl to a trough of USD 60.70/bbl and USD 63.98/bbl. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to an oil production hike of 137k BPD for December but then to hold on oil hikes for the following three months. The three-month hold has been described by analysts as an acknowledgement by the group that the oil market is facing a sizable surplus.
• Spot XAU fell straight on the open of the APAC session to a trough of USD 3962/oz before gradually reversing to a peak of USD 4028/oz just as the European session got underway. Currently, XAU is trading shy of best levels at USD 4006/oz as the global equity bid weighs on the yellow metal.
• Base metals initially dropped as the APAC session got underway but reversed higher, with 3M LME Aluminium reaching near its highest prices since May 2022, as the market follows the wider positive sentiment in global equities. 3M LME Copper dipped to a trough of USD 10.84k/t early in the trading day before reversing to a peak of USD 10.93k/t and currently oscillating within this tight c. USD 100/t band. Overnight the red-metal lacked direction after disappointing Chinese PMI data.
• Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil output in December by 137k bpd and then pause for Q1.
• Turkish oil refiners are to cut Russian crude imports for December arrival with Azeri Socar buying four non-Russian cargoes, while Turkish state refiner Tupras increases purchases of non-Russian crude, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Morgan Stanley raises H1’26 Brent estimate to USD 60/bbl (prev. saw USD 57.50/bbl)
• BP (BP /LN) CEO says oil demand remains robust, adds that 1% oil demand growth was helped by aviation and petchems.
• UBS sees upside risks for gold towards USD 4,700/oz if political or financial market volatility increases again.
• OPEC Secretary-General says the group has been consistently and regularly returning barrels to the market, have the flexibility to alter, pause and reverse past decisions. Making sure to maintain supply-demand balance. Group sees oil demand growth at 1.3mln BPD this year. Still sees good signs for demand. Not expecting any surprises in the market.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu warned that Israel was prepared to take further action against Iran-allied groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, according to FT.
• Israel’s Defence Minister said the Lebanese government must fulfil its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from south Lebanon, while Israel vowed maximum enforcement will continue and intensify to protect northern residents.
• Israel reportedly conducted artillery strikes and destroyed residential blocks in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip.
• Israel announced on Sunday that it received the bodies of three hostages from the Red Cross in Gaza.
• Iran’s President said Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities with greater power, according to state media.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Iran is not interested in direct negotiations with the US, via Iran International.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei says Tehran remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its safeguards agreement, via Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US Pentagon was reported on Friday to have approved the White House to transfer US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although left the final decision to the US President Trump, according to CNN, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said regarding reports about the US approval of Tomahawk supplies to Ukraine, that sending weapons to Kyiv will not help any settlement, according to RIA. However, US President Trump commented on Sunday that he is not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles.
• Ukraine drone attack causes fire at Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse, while authorities announced that an oil tanker and two foreign civilian vessels were damaged as a result of the drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse.
• Ukraine’s military said it is raising the number of its assault groups to counteract Russian troops and that it has improved positions in several districts in Pokrovsk. However, it also stated that the situation in Pokrovsk remains complicated and dynamic, while Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in Pokrovsk began to surrender.
• Russia says it struck Ukrainian gas facilities, a military airfield, and a Ukrainian military equipment repair base in large overnight strikes.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump’s administration is reportedly planning a new mission in Mexico to target cartels, via NBC citing current & former officials; would include US troops on the ground, though deployment is not imminent.
• US President Trump threatened to cut off all US aid to Nigeria over the killing of Christians and said the US might go into Nigeria with “guns-a-blazing”, while he instructed the Department of War to prepare for possible action and separately commented that there could be US troops on the ground in Nigeria or airstrikes.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth posted “The killing of innocent Christians in Nigeria — and anywhere — must end immediately. The Department of War is preparing for action. Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.”
• US and China agreed to set up direct communication between their militaries to help avoid conflict, according to US Secretary of War Hegseth, who also said the administration supports a strong and independent Vietnam, while the US wants a deeper military relationship with Vietnam and wants to expand the partnership with Vietnam and work to advance shared interests. Furthermore, Hegseth announced that the US military carried out another ‘lethal kinetic strike’ on a vessel in the Caribbean.
• South Korean President Lee said they will aid US President Trump to play a peacemaker role on North Korea.
• China criticised Japanese PM Takaichi for meeting with Taiwanese officials on the sidelines of APEC.
• Philippines signed a military pact with Canada as the former seeks to build a coalition of allies to deter China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

US Event Calendar

• Oct Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.5m, prior 16.39m
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52.2
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.45, prior 49.1
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Prices Paid, est. 62.5, prior 61.9
• 10:00 am: Sep Construction Spending MoM

Central Bank Speakers:

• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Daly in Moderated Conversation
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the first business day of November. As it’s the start of the month, Henry has just released our regular performance review of markets in October. It was an incredibly eventful month, and financial assets were supported by the US-China trade truce, strong data and decent earnings. So the S&P 500 posted a 6th monthly gain for the first time since 2021, and those factors outweighed concerns around private credit and fears of an AI bubble. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei had its best month in 35 years as the new government came to office. And despite the late pullback, precious metals continued their advance, with gold moving above $4,000/oz, whilst silver posted a 6th consecutive monthly gain for the first time in 45 years. See the full report here.

One of this week’s major landmarks is that, by midnight tomorrow, the current US government shutdown will officially become the longest in history—assuming there isn’t a highly unlikely near-term resolution. This will surpass the previous record of 35 days, which ended on 25 January 2019. There is growing speculation that we may be nearing the last stages of the shutdown, driven by increased cross-party dialogue, mounting public pressure, and economic and political considerations. One example is the US food aid programme, which supports around 42 million Americans and may not have sufficient funding to last through November.

Yet despite this, the Polymarket probabilities show little sign of shifting. For instance, the likelihood of the shutdown ending by 15 November stands at 51%, having edged lower in recent days, while the probability of it ending by 30 November remains consistently in the 80–90% range, currently at 86%. So, while markets expect a November, expectations haven’t accelerated.

If it weren’t for the shutdown, we’d be looking forward to the US jobs report for October on Friday. But given we aren’t getting the government data releases, there’s likely to be outsize attention on the ADP’s report of private payrolls on Wednesday, especially in light of Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference last week. He indicated that the Fed requires further evidence of labour market deterioration before considering additional easing, and his stance may have been influenced by recent weekly ADP data, which has pointed to a modest rebound in private sector job gains. For this month’s report, DB’s US economists expect a print of +50k, compared to -32k previously, with consensus at +30k. They think a rebound in the ADP survey would align with seasonal patterns observed over recent years during the summer and autumn. These seasonals may have artificially weakened the recent headline figures, although strict immigration curbs and subdued hiring and firing point to a fragile low level equilibrium in the labour market which wouldn’t take much to shift momentum either way.

Elsewhere in the US, the focus will be on other private sector releases. Today’s ISM manufacturing print is forecast by DB at 48.9, down from 49.1 previously (consensus at 49.5), while Wednesday’s ISM services print (DB at 51.1, consensus 50.8, vs. 50.0 last month) will also be closely watched, particularly its subcomponents such as employment and prices paid. The PMIs are also out this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment on Friday, where the inflation expectations series will be key. Bear in mind that the October FOMC dissenter Schmid recently remarked, “I view inflation expectations not as an input into Fed’s decisions, but as the outcome of the policy decisions that the Fed makes.” There will also be extensive Fed commentary this week, which will be closely scrutinised following last week’s FOMC.

Aside from the data, one of the big events is that on Wednesday, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments regarding the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, which account for roughly half of tariff revenue collections in 2025. Two lower courts have ruled these tariffs illegal, and the eventual outcome could significantly impact the fiscal outlook—even though Trump may pursue alternative measures if he loses. Bear in mind that Polymarket probabilities only point to a 36% chance of the Supreme Court ruling in favour of the Trump tariffs, so one to keep an eye on.

Globally, central bank meetings are scheduled with the RBA (Tuesday), Riksbank (Wednesday), Norges Bank and BoE (Thursday). No changes are expected, though the BoE holds the most uncertainty with markets pricing a 29% likelihood of a cut, compared to negligible probabilities for the others. See our economists’ preview of the BoE meeting here.
Outside the US, key data releases include October CPIs in Switzerland (today) and Sweden (Thursday), trade balances in Germany, France, and China (all Friday), and wage data in Japan (Wednesday). Germany will also publish factory orders (Wednesday) and industrial production figures (Thursday).

Earnings season will also continue apace this week, with several US tech firms in the spotlight, including Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm. Other notable S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Uber, and Pfizer. Energy firms Saudi Aramco, ConocoPhillips, and BP are also set to report. Meanwhile in Europe, highlights include AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Ferrari, and defence firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo. See our day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual.

Overnight in Asia, equities have generally got November off to a strong start. For instance in South Korea, the KOSPI (+2.48%) has surged to another record high, and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is also up +0.89%. The performance has been a bit softer in mainland China, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.26%) posting a more modest increase alongside a decline for the CSI 300 (-0.12%). But looking forward, US and European equity futures are also positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.17%) and the DAX (+0.26%) both pointing higher. Otherwise, WTI oil prices (+0.46%) have risen for a 4th consecutive session after the OPEC+ group said they would be pausing output hikes in Q1, moving up to $61.26/bbl.

Recapping a hectic week now, markets were buoyed by strong tech earnings, a positive Trump–Xi meeting, and new AI-related deals. Tech outperformed, with the NASDAQ up +2.24% (+0.61% Friday) and the Mag-7 rising +3.30% (+1.22% Friday). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained +3.61% (+0.18% Friday), driven by Qualcomm’s +7.08% chip announcement and Nvidia’s +8.71% surge following new partnerships, pushing its market cap past $5 trillion at one point. AI and cloud revenue stories dominated earnings from five Mag-7 firms. Alphabet rose +8.18% and Amazon +8.92% on strong cloud growth, while Apple gained +2.87% on improved iPhone sales projections. Microsoft fell -1.11% despite early-week gains after revealing a 27% stake in OpenAI. Meta was the laggard, down -12.19% (-2.72% Friday), as markets questioned its high capex plans and rationale for last week’s $30bn bond issuance.
Outside tech, equities were more subdued. The S&P 500 rose +0.71% (+0.26% Friday), but the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell -1.75% and the Russell 2000 declined -1.36%. US IG credit spreads widened +3bps to 78bps, impacted by Meta’s mega deal. European credit outperformed, with IG and HY spreads tightening -1bps and -9bps respectively, even as equities declined — the STOXX 600 fell -0.67% (-0.51% Friday).

A key geopolitical event was the Trump–Xi meeting during Trump’s Asia visit. The US agreed to reduce its fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%, while China removed its 10–15% retaliatory tariffs on various US agricultural products and delayed rare earth export controls. The Nikkei (+6.31%) and KOSPI (+4.21%) hit new records, but Chinese equities underperformed (CSI 300 -0.43%) amid lingering US–China tensions and a weak China manufacturing PMI on Friday.
Turning to rates, the Fed cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, but internal divisions remain. Two Governors dissented in opposite directions, and Powell noted “strongly differing views” within the FOMC, stating that a December rate cut is “far from…a foregone conclusion”. So by the end of the week, futures were pricing a 68% probability of a December cut, down from over 90% before the FOMC. Consequently, 10yr Treasury yields rose +7.5bps (-2.1bps Friday), and 2yr yields increased +9.2bps (-3.5bps Friday). Higher US rates supported the dollar, with the dollar index up +0.86%, marking its highest weekly close since May. In contrast, gold fell -2.68% to $4,003/oz.

Finally in Europe, the ECB held rates steady at 2% for the third consecutive meeting. President Lagarde stated that policy is in a “good place”, though not a “fixed place”. European bonds saw mixed movements against that backdrop: 10yr bund yields rose +0.7bps, while OATs and BTPs declined -1.1bps and -3.2bps respectively. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, and the Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.5%.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

I think I’ve identified the four horsemen of the next stock market apocalypse — each one manageable in isolation, but collectively large enough to reshape a financial system priced for perfection.

Subprime auto, commercial real estate, private credit, and crypto all scratch me where I itch when thinking about precarious pockets of today’s stock market.

None of these areas is as systemically concentrated as subprime mortgages were before 2008, but each contains hidden leverage, murky valuations, and exposures lurking in balance sheets that investors prefer not to scrutinize until they absolutely have to — sometimes done by a bankruptcy court.

When assets across multiple pockets of the market are simultaneously stressed — and markets are trading at historic highs — even smaller shocks can cascade.

The Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse painting by George Lightfoot

The strains showing up in today’s subprime auto market feel like a replay of the early stages of the 2008 crisis — where deterioration was obvious in the underlying data but somehow absent from valuations. This was the scene in The Big Short where the defaults are rampant, but the price of their swaps hasn’t been marked appropriately.

It’s amazing how well assets perform when you simply refuse to value them. And when major banks are complicit in pumping them…

Bloomberg recently noted that more than 1.7 million cars were repossessed in 2024, the most since the post-crisis period. That’s more than a 40% jump from 2022, driven by the end of pandemic forbearance, persistent inflation, and sharply higher interest rates. A typical monthly payment now sits in the mid-$700s (this is almost my mortgage payment on my studio apartment in Philadelphia), and many subprime borrowers are paying rates above 10%. What used to be a manageable necessity has become a financial wedge.

Among borrowers with weaker credit, more than 6% are over two months behind — worse than during prior recessions — and nearly one in ten is sliding into default. People generally sacrifice everything else other than their house before they lose their cars. When transportation — the thing that gets you to work and keeps life functioning — becomes unaffordable, that’s not a marginal data point. That’s financial strain turning into lifestyle disruption.

The pressures extend well beyond driveways and impound lots. Consumer credit balances are at record highs, and delinquencies are trending up. Meanwhile, a parallel stress is building in commercial real estate. Office buildings financed under pre-COVID occupancy assumptions now face empty floors and refinancing costs that defy the original business plans. Declining property values remain largely unacknowledged on lender balance sheets, but everyone in the system knows the math is getting worse.

A recent report from the Financial Stability Board highlighted why this is more than just a property-market story. Non-bank real estate investors — REITs and private funds — often rely on short-term funding to finance long-duration assets, creating run-risk if investors demand liquidity. Leverage is high across portions of the sector, and valuations are opaque because assets don’t trade frequently. When banks respond by rolling loans forward to avoid recognizing losses, it doesn’t make the losses disappear — it just delays the moment the world has to notice them.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

With more than $5,000,000,000,000 of U.S. bank exposure tied to commercial property through direct loans, securities holdings, credit lines, and developer financing, the risk doesn’t sit in one corner — it interlocks throughout the system.

And all four of these stress points — autos, CRE, private credit, and crypto — disproportionately sit on or flow through U.S. regional banks. I’ve already written about ties like the ones between Carvana and Ally Bank. Smaller and midsize banks have historically been key lenders to offices, apartments, and other income-producing properties, leaving a larger portion of their balance sheets tied to property performance than the biggest national institutions.

With valuations under pressure and a wave of loan maturities approaching by 2026, according to Cohen & Steers, lenders will likely face rising delinquencies and the need to boost reserves—especially where office loans or recently underwritten, higher-leverage deals are concentrated.

That could leave these banks vulnerable as fundamentals worsen. The result could very well look like a slow-motion replay of 2023’s bank failures: liquidity strains, forced mergers, and emergency weekend interventions. The ultimate outcome seems pre-scripted — a cycle where stress first hits regionals and ends, once again, with a federal backstop and the largest banks adding a new set of subsidiaries to their collection. One can already imagine JPMorgan’s future earnings calls: “We’re pleased to welcome ten more institutions into the JPMorgan Chase family.”

To be clear, subprime auto and CRE are smaller exposures than the subprime housing market was pre-2008. On their own, they wouldn’t be expected to topple the system. But in today’s market, they aren’t on their own. Add in the trillions of dollars of “no-bid” air embedded in thin-liquidity crypto markets where punters play with 25x leverage routinely, plus another trillion or more in private credit that has yet to face a true downturn, and suddenly you could have enough fragility to send shockwaves through an equity market priced for perfection. By almost any valuation metric — price to earnings, cash flow, sales, enterprise value — broad asset prices sit near or at all-time highs, quietly assuming that everything will keep going right.

It’s hard not to see the parallels to the run-up to the financial crisis, when losses were visible everywhere except in official marks. We’ve reached that eerie pause where risks are acknowledged in theory but not reflected in pricing. The eye of the (shit) storm. Volatility measures imply serenity. The underlying data points to something very different.

The playbook hasn’t changed much since 2008: delay the markdowns, hope the cycle bails you out, and treat denial as a risk-management strategy. But the stresses building in auto lending, consumer credit, commercial real estate, crypto, and private credit suggest we are once again in the quiet center of the storm — the part where the outcomes are predictable, but the recognition hasn’t yet hit the tape.

The calm feels less like stability and more like suspense, as it did when I saw Covid happening before the market crashed. I’ve found suspense eventually gives way to resolution, but what do I know?

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation announced it will acquire Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at nearly $49 billion, marking one of the largest consumer health mergers in history. 

Kimberly-Clark revealed in a press release that the deal values Kenvue at 14.3x its latest twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA. In return, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and .14625 Kimberly-Clark shares per Kenvue share, for a total of about $ 21.01 per share. The deal is valued at $48.7 billion. 

The deal is expected to close in 2H 2026. Upon completion, Kimberly-Clark shareholders will own 54% of the combined company, while Kenvue shareholders will own 46%. Both boards have unanimously approved the acquisition. JPMorgan Chase is providing committed financing for the deal. 

The merger unites two mega consumer-product giants, creating a global health and wellness powerhouse with top brands, including Kleenex, Huggies, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid, that reach consumers worldwide. 

Here’s the justification for the merger:

• Combines Kimberly-Clark’s commercial execution and digital marketing capabilities with Kenvue’s science-backed innovation and healthcare professional networks.

• Expands global footprint across key growth categories in personal care and health.

• Enhanced R&D and quality investments to accelerate product innovation and address evolving consumer health needs.

• Kimberly-Clark CEO Mike Hsu will continue leading the merged company, supported by senior executives from both firms.

Based on Kimberly-Clark’s current projections, the merger would generate 2025 annual net revenues of about $32 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $7 billion. 

All sounds great, but this comes at a time when Tylenol faces political scrutiny via the Trump administration, warning mothers to avoid giving their newborns acetaminophen.

Related:

• “Don’t Take It”: Trump Warns Pregnant Women To Avoid Tylenol Over Autism Concerns

• Tylenol Manufacturer Resists Proposed Label Changes

In markets, Kimberly-Clark shares tumbled 15%, while Kenvue shares jumped 20%. 

The question now is whether government regulators will approve the deal, especially given President Trump’s recent comments surrounding Tylenol.

Russia says it is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela at a moment of unprecedented build-up of military assets threatening the country which possesses the world’s largest crude oil reserves.

Responding to a weekend Washington Post report saying that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has requested military assistance from Moscow, especially missiles and radars, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said simply: “We are closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela.”

WaPo has indicated that the American military build-up in the southern Caribbean includes 10,000 soldiers and 6,000 sailors, making the total force posture a whopping 16,000 troops.

The publication describes, “U.S. forces in the Caribbean include eight Navy warships, a special operations vessel and a nuclear-powered attack submarine. When the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford arrives in the Caribbean next week, it will bring with it three more warships and more than 4,000 additional troops.”

Prior to the carrier group’s arrival, these are the warships currently patrolling waters near Venezuela:

• USS Iwo Jima
• USS San Antonio
• USS Stockdale
• USS Jason Dunham
• USS Gravely
• USS Lake Erie
• USS Wichita
• USS Gettysburg

It is not known whether Moscow is actually following through in any way based on Maduro’s urgent request – but any extra assistance is likely too little, too late at this point – as it would require significant logistics at a moment Caracas is under direct threat by the Pentagon.

Island-nations off Venezuela have been some large Air Force toys dropped on them in the last days and weeks…

The U.S. Air Force deployed an AN/TPS-75 tactical air defense radar late last month at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix, roughly 450 miles north of Venezuela. The radar offers 240 NM coverage and supports the Theater Air Control System with azimuth, range, height, and IFF… pic.twitter.com/K4KeHRmmVB

— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) November 2, 2025

TASS reviews of Moscow’s defense ties with the Maduro government, “On October 21, the Russian State Duma ratified the strategic partnership and cooperation treaty between Russia and Venezuela.”

The report says further, “According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, this ratification is very important given the unprecedented forceful pressure, including direct military pressure, that the US is exerting on Venezuela.”

And Trump might waste these expensive Tomahawks on regime change in a Third World country…why?

#Venezuela: The arrival of the Ford Carrier Strike Group puts the number of available Tomahawks near 200–comparable to those seen in other conflicts of limited duration and scope.

BLUF: Strikes on the @NicolasMaduro regime could come at any moment.

Source: @CSISDefense pic.twitter.com/MDZ6iTvt6S

— Ryan Berg, PhD (@RyanBergPhD) November 1, 2025

But with US sanctions on, and prior examples of interdictions on the high seas, even if Russia or China wanted to quickly assist Maduro as he’s under the US bullseye it could prove logistically impossible.

And the reality is that Moscow needs all the missiles in its arsenal as it continues facing down NATO and amid the grinding ‘special military operation’ inside Ukraine.

#Venezuela: The USS Gerald Ford is steaming toward the Caribbean. “The competition for these vessels is tremendous,” I told the @washingtonpost. Once the Ford arrives in the Caribbean, “It’s going to start a clock ticking” on strikes–use it or lose it.👇https://t.co/IhrSyf6KVG

— Ryan Berg, PhD (@RyanBergPhD) November 2, 2025

Russia is also unlikely to risk getting entangled in a new proxy conflict in America’s own backyard, and again with logistical lines that would likely prove a problem, especially now as the US Navy has Venezuela effectively blockaded.

By Joseph Trevithick of The War Zone

Anduril’s YFQ-44A ‘fighter drone’ prototype has now made its maiden flight. The YFQ-44A is one of two designs currently being developed under the first phase, or Increment 1, of the U.S. Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. The other is General Atomics’ YFQ-42A, which took to the skies for the first time earlier this year.

A TWZ reader has shared pictures with us of the YFQ-44A in flight, which were taken earlier today at Southern California Logistics Airport in Victorville, California. The drone was also seen accompanied by two L-29 Delfin trainer jets acting as chase planes. We have reached out to Anduril for more information.

Additional imagery of the YFQ-44A in flight is now beginning to circulate online.

Last year, the Air Force announced that it trimmed back the field of prospective Increment 1 CCA designs to the proposals from Anduril and General Atomics. However, Fury’s story traces back to the late 2010s and an aggressor drone concept from a company called Blue Force Technologies, which Anduril acquired in 2023, as you can read about in extensive detail in this past War Zone feature.

“This marks another major milestone for the CCA program, now with two new uncrewed fighter aircraft going from concept to flight in less than 2 years,” the Air Force has now said in a press release confirming the YFQ-44A’s first flight. “This flight testing expands the program’s knowledge base on flight performance, autonomous behaviors, and mission system integration. By advancing multiple designs in parallel, the Air Force is gaining broader insights and refining how uncrewed aircraft will complement crewed fifth-and sixth-generation platforms in future mission environments.”

“This milestone demonstrates how competition drives innovation and accelerates delivery,” Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink said in a statement. “These flights are giving us the hard data we need to shape requirements, reduce risk, and ensure the CCA program delivers combat capability on a pace and scale that keeps us ahead of the threat.”

Anduril and the Air Force had previously declined to provide a hard timeline for when the YFQ-44A would make its first flight.

“We have multiple vehicles at our test facility in ground testing right now, and we’re in the final stages before first flight,” Diem Salmon, Anduril’s Vice President of Air Dominance and Strike, had told TWZ and others at the Air & Space Forces Association’s 2025 Air, Space, and Cyber Conference back in September. “All in all, we’re still well ahead of the program schedule in terms of getting YFQ-44A into the air. [We] feel really confident in our ability to do so and still feel really good about the program schedule.”

At that time, Salmon, as well as Jason Levin, Anduril’s Senior Vice President of Engineering for Air Dominance and Strike, offered additional details about the plans for Fury’s first flight, including the level of autonomy the company was hoping to demonstrate, which was a key schedule driver. You can read more about that here.

“It was not a race to get to first flight as fast as humanly possible. It was, how do we field this really advanced and novel capability as fast as we can,” Salmon had said. “And with that comes the recognition that the autonomy is the hard part here, and so that’s the thing that you actually need to burn down from a technical development, testing, and risk perspective. And so that’s how we’ve approached our program.”

Secretary of the Air Force Meink had also told TWZ and others at a separate roundtable at the Air, Space, and Cyber Conference that his service was hoping to see the YFQ-44A fly by the middle of October. In a keynote address at the event, now-retired Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin described Fury’s first flight as “imminent,” as well.

“My engineers tell me that if we push the button … [the drone] will take off, it’ll fly around, and it’ll come back home,” Anduril founder Palmer Luckey had also told reporters earlier this month, according to Breaking Defense. “The Air Force is going through a process of evaluation that is very, very reasonable, I think.”

“Obviously, now the problem is we’re into the shutdown,” Luckey added at that time. “Certainly … a lot of stuff stops moving.”

The U.S. federal government remains in a shutdown. Efforts have been made to find continued funding for various priority efforts, especially within the U.S. military.

With the YFQ-42A and the YFQ-44A now flying, “developmental flight activities continue across both vendor and government test locations, including Edwards Air Force Base [AFB], where envelope expansion and integration work will inform future experimentation,” according to the Air Force’s press release today. “The Air Force’s Experimental Operations Unit (EOU), located at Nellis AFB, will be instrumental in evaluating operational concepts as the program transitions from testing to fielding substantial operational capability for Increment 1 before the end of the decade.”

How many Increment 1 CCAs the Air Force ultimately plans to acquire is not entirely clear. Air Force officials have said previously that between 100 and 150 drones could be ordered under the program’s first phase. It also remains to be seen whether the service buys YFQ-42As, YFQ-44As, or a mix of both.

“CCA is part of the Next Generation Air Dominance Family of Systems and leverages the Department’s Government Reference Architectures—enabling platform-agnostic autonomy development, streamlined integration across vendor systems, and more agile capability updates over time,” the Air Force’s release also noted. “The architecture is built to integrate with Allied and Joint partners, offering common autonomy and mission system standards that support seamless interoperability and teaming across Services and coalition forces.”

There are still plans for at least one more incremental CCA developmental cycle, the requirements for which have yet to be publicly disclosed. However, the submissions for Increment 2 are already expected to be significantly different from the ones for Increment 1. in September, Lockheed Martin unveiled a new CCA-type drone, called Vectis, which the company suggested could be proposed for Increment 2. This week, Aviation Week also disclosed the existence of a new drone design from Northrop Grumman subsidiary Scaled Composites, currently referred to just as Project Lotus, which that outlet described in terms of its similarities to Vectis.

Increment 2 has also long been expected to involve foreign participation. Earlier this month, authorities in the Netherlands notably announced they had signed the letter of intent about joining the CCA program.

The Air Force’s CCA effort is also directly intertwined with similar efforts underway within the U.S. Marine Corps and the U.S. Navy. The Air Force still has many general questions to answer about how its future CCA fleets, whatever they are comprised of, will be deployed, launched, recovered, supported, and otherwise operated, not to mention employed tactically.

As such, in addition to being an important milestone in Fury’s development, the YFQ-44A’s first flight is also another step forward for the Air Force’s larger CCA plans.

Update:

Anduril has now put out its own release regarding the YFQ-44A’s first flight.

YFQ-44A took flight today. Anduril has launched a new age of airpower with the push of a button.

From clean-sheet design to one-click takeoff in 556 days. pic.twitter.com/hUxIZCP8Zz

— Anduril Industries (@anduriltech) October 31, 2025

“Flight testing is where we prove to ourselves, to the Air Force, to our allies, and to our adversaries that these proclamations about game-changing technology go beyond words. They’re real, and they are taking to the skies today,” Jason Levin, Senior Vice President of Engineering for Air Dominance and Strike at Anduril, writes. “The flight testing process is where we prove that our aircraft meets the mark in terms of speed, maneuverability, autonomy, stealth, range, weapons systems integration, and more. As YFQ-44A climbs higher, we’re proving that it doesn’t merely look like a fighter, but that it performs like one.”

“Flight testing for the CCA program is also about more than simply proving raw fighter performance in a vacuum. The real step change that autonomy is driving is enabling a team of robotic aircraft to collaborate to accomplish mission objectives,” he adds. We designed YFQ-44A for a specific Air Force mission: to enhance survivability, lethality, and mission effectiveness by teaming with crewed fighter aircraft or operating independently. Through flight testing, Anduril and the Air Force are developing those collaborative, manned-unmanned teaming concepts and tactics that will inform how we integrate, fight with, and sustain truly autonomous aircraft.”

Anduril’s release also includes details about the production plans for the YFQ-44A, which tie into a “hyperscale” production facility, called Arsenal-1, that the company is now building in Ohio.

“To achieve the scale we need at the speed that the threat demands, we are building and testing a new type of production system for YFQ-44A. Through the employment of a common software backbone called ArsenalOS, our production system multiplies the effects of the thousands of design-for-manufacturing decisions made during the development of YFQ-44A,” according to Levin. “That system is underpinned by a manufacturing philosophy focused on simple, mature, and low-risk production technologies, rather than relying on manufacturing miracles. YFQ-44A will be produced at rate by a broad labor pool, commoditized supply chain, and industry-standard manufacturing processes.”

“YFQ-44A is streaking through the skies, but its next chapter will be written on the factory floors of America’s heartland. Our investment in this aircraft is the driving force behind Arsenal-1, the 5 million square foot production facility that we’re building in Columbus, Ohio,” he adds. “YFQ-44A will be the first program to move into the factory when its doors open, and we are on track to begin production of prototype CCA at Arsenal-1 in the first half of 2026.”

“We’re not waiting for Arsenal-1 to start building, though. In the meantime, we have already more than doubled our manufacturing speed for YFQ-44A by rapidly optimizing our processes and workflows, and by making hundreds of tweaks to the design of the aircraft to further enhance producibility,” Levin also notes. “Making it this far has required herculean investments from the combined Anduril-USAF team measured in time and money.”

* * * 

During a press call today, Anduril’s Jason Levin provided TWZ and other outlets with additional information about today’s first flight and future testing plans. The company has so far declined to say how long the YFQ-44A’s first flight lasted or provide other, more specific details about what it entailed.

“I don’t think I can say any specifics, but the team is very excited,” Levin said in response to a question about whether the first flight went as planned. He did say that the YFQ-44A flew today with an Anduril flight autonomy mission package, but declined to speak to what additional mission autonomy capabilities might be integrated into the drone in future test flights.

pic.twitter.com/W65ir6NRSS

— Anduril Industries (@anduriltech) October 31, 2025

“I think it’s kind of the standard buildup that you would have in in in aviation. So I think it’s just checking out subsystems, continue to burn down risk, continue to prove that systems are flight worthy and things are working as expected, matching up the simulation, and then just to continue to start to push the envelope,” he added when asked about potential hurdles to further expanding Fury’s flight envelope. “So, I don’t see any specific risk. We’ve kind of designed Fury to be a simple, low-risk, producible system on purpose, so that we didn’t have to clear any huge hurdles while progressing through the flight test program.”

“We still have a lot to do. So, we’ve shown the airplane works. We’ve shown the autonomy works. The software brain that powers it works. We have a lot to do in terms of proving out the speed, maneuverability, autonomy, stealth, weapon systems integration, and more. And that’s when we’re going to start developing the tactics with experimentation with the Air Force,” he also said. “We’ve already begun integrating weapons with YFQ-44A, and we’ll execute our first live shot next year. And then over the next year, we’ll execute multi-ship mission autonomy, deploy weapons from YFQ-44A, fly in conjunction with crewed fighters, and operate outside of test locations.”

“I can’t talk to the specific build-up to firing a missile, but you can kind of imagine it’s not going to be too dissimilar from any aircraft doing a first shot. So we’re just going to build up in terms of flying, integrating systems, and testing them out,” he added when asked to elaborate on the weapon testing plans. “We have a test planning collaboration with the Air Force for things like that.”

It also gives us the hard data we need to shape requirements, reduce risk, and ensure the CCA program delivers combat capability on a pace and scale that keeps us ahead of the threat (2/2). https://t.co/qoCd9PY3do

— Office of the Secretary of the Air Force (@SecAFOfficial) October 31, 2025

He offered a similar response when asked about the plans for multi-ship flight testing, which is set to be conducted in coordination with crewed fighters.

“We have a flight test kind of procedure that I think is going to move quite rapidly, because we’ve built out a lot of the autonomy, so we can start hitting the other test points and showing the capability of the aircraft much quicker,” Levin said, speaking more generally. “And so we feel confident that’ll get us pretty quickly into the live shot, multi-ship autonomous flight, and then autonomous flight with crewed aircraft.”

“We’ve [got] currently multiple Fury fully-built aircraft in testing, as well as multiple aircraft in various stages of the manufacturing process,” he also noted. Anduril had previously disclosed this at the Air & Space Forces Association’s 2025 Air, Space, and Cyber Conference in September.

“Arsenal-1, it is going to open next year, and it can support the increment one demand that the U.S. Air Force has for CCA,” he added. “And so we’re scaling up that facility to build hundreds of aircraft.”

“>

Gas prices are falling across much of the United States, but Seattle drivers are still paying a premium, according to Fox 13 Seattle.

The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.066. In Washington state, the average jumps to $4.388 per gallon. In the Seattle–Bellevue–Everett metro area, the price is $4.648 per gallon, and in King County it reaches $4.732 per gallon.

AAA says some Seattleites are paying as much as 53% above the U.S. norm for gasoline.

Fox writes that the national average continues a slow decline, heading toward the $3-a-gallon mark for the first time in nearly four years. Lower demand, cheaper crude oil, and the switch to less-expensive winter-blend gasoline are helping drive that trend. A year ago, the national average was $3.163 per gallon, while Washington’s statewide average was $4.068 — a gap of just 32 cents that has now widened dramatically.

In other words: while the gasoline might be a little cheaper soon for some, in Seattle the pain at the pump is still real — and the cost of owning a home here keeps climbing or at best holding steady high.

Gas prices in Seattle are far higher than the national average mainly because Washington imposes some of the highest fuel taxes and climate-related fees in the country.

The state’s carbon pricing policy increases the cost per gallon before it ever reaches a pump. Seattle is also geographically distant from major oil production regions and relies on a limited number of local refineries and tanker deliveries, meaning there’s less competition and higher transportation and production costs.

On top of that, the region’s overall cost of doing business is elevated, with pricier labor, logistics, and real estate all filtering into what drivers pay. Even when national fuel prices drop, these structural factors keep Seattle’s gas among the most expensive in the U.S., leaving local motorists paying a premium simply to stay on the road.

Via Thehub.ca,

Welcome immigrants. Many, but not too many. Mostly educated and skilled. Always legal.

That is the answer. Or at least a short version of an answer. What’s the question? I’m coming to that.

For decades, Canada enjoyed all-party, across-the-spectrum support for immigration. The arrival of new people at consistently higher rates than in Western Europe or the United States did not drive political polarization. This country took in far more immigrants than America relative to the size of its population, and had been doing so for decades, without signs of backlash. Instead of a Left-Right clash on immigration, there was a boring all-party consensus.

When Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency for the first time, visceral anger over immigration was central to his campaign. Perhaps his success with so many voters should not have surprised. By 2016, the share of the American population born outside the country was 13.5 percent, the highest level in more than a century. Maybe a backlash was inevitable.

In Canada, however, it has been well over a century since immigrants were that low a share of the population. In 2016, immigrants were 22 percent of Canadians and rising. That was higher than the U.S. at any time since the Civil War.

Yet in Canada in the mid-2010s, there wasn’t much evidence of a groundswell of popular opposition to immigration, nor were there signs of a political crackup over the issue. Between the Liberal governments of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, there hadn’t been much daylight on immigration—not in the shared positive attitude toward legal immigration, nor in their common concern to limit illegal and irregular immigration, nor in the actual numbers of immigrants accepted each year. Governments of different ideological stripes struck roughly the same course for a quarter of a century. The broad strokes of Canadian immigration policy did not whipsaw when the party in power changed.

Immigration sparked conflict in other lands, but something about this nation, or how it did immigration, had delivered a different outcome.

From the start of the century until the early 2020s, the statement “there is too much immigration” was agreed with by only around a third of Canadians, versus two-thirds in disagreement.

A 2018 Pew poll found that 68 percent of Canadians said that immigrants “make our country stronger”—the highest level in the developed world. Just 27 percent said that immigrants “are a burden”—the lowest level in the developed world.

A 2019 Gallup survey found that Canada had the world’s most welcoming and positive attitude toward immigrants. In the U.S., the survey found support for immigration declined with age; in Canada, Gallup found no differences by age group. The most pro-immigration Americans were those in their teens and twenties, but even they were not as pro-immigration as Canadian seniors.

A country that tends to humblebrag about its modest successes had a not-so modest success. The ultimate mark of achievement was that Canadians were not preoccupied with immigration. Public disinterest was a sign of public trust. The subject was usually as newsworthy as functioning plumbing.

Until, that is, everything changed.

The italicized credo that I opened with is the short answer to this question: What is the recipe for a successful immigration system?

Or to flesh it out a bit more: What is the recipe for an immigration system that is likely to deliver long-term and widely shared economic benefits to the receiving country; offers immigrants good odds of success; is genuinely welcoming; is seen as fair and meritocratic; is likely to produce more benefits than costs; builds solidarity and citizenship between native-born and newcomers; and is likely to earn a high level of public acceptance?

Read the rest here…

Just as US-Russia talks related to Ukraine have recently hit a stoppage and potential breaking point – with the cancelation of the Budapest summit – Russia has been significantly upping its missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.

The fact that Ukraine’s energy grid is long struggling to keep up with power demand, also as vital infrastructure keeps getting pummeled amid rolling blackouts, means the country is in for a very tough winter. Fresh data demonstrates that October represented a high point in terms of the rate of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.

“Russia fired more missiles at Ukraine in October than in any month since at least the start of 2023, an AFP analysis of Ukrainian data showed,” the outlet has found.

That record shows that “Russia’s army fired 270 missiles in October, up 46% on the previous month, according to an AFP analysis of daily data published by Ukraine’s air force.”

The Ukrainian government had only started publishing detailed statistics of these strikes at the beginning of 2023, and 270 strikes marks the highest-one month tally since.

President Zelensky has commented, “Russia’s task is to create chaos and apply psychological pressure on the population through strikes on energy facilities and railways.”

As for drone attacks, this number is in the thousands – with many of these likely being decoy drones, but also highly destructive suicide drones which often come in waves, overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses.

“Russia also fired 5,298 long-range drones at Ukraine in October, the same data showed, down by around six percent on the number it fired in September but still close to record highs,” AFP found.

The number of Ukrainian drones sent on Russian territory is also likely in the thousands. These have actually been highly effective in damaging dozens of Russian oil refineries and defense sector factories in the last several months – with some of the same oil sites having been hit more than once.

More attacks into the weekend…

BREAKING:

Major blackouts in the suburbs of Moscow after Ukraine largest one of the largest drone swarm attack of this war against Russian energy infrastructure in thr Moscow region pic.twitter.com/MeWz1iwjeX

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 31, 2025

Kiev’s strategy is to attempt to cripple Putin’s military machine by impacting cash flow to the defense ministry via oil exports – though so far this has appeared limited in its effect, also as Moscow keeps finding ways to also circumvent Western sanctions.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

Automotive giant Stellantis is expanding its U.S. operations. Any sign of an investment turnaround in Germany, which Chancellor Friedrich Merz touted just weeks ago, is nowhere to be seen.

Investment Freeze at Stellantis – in Germany at Least 

The European carmaker, home to brands like Opel, Peugeot, and Citroën, is turning away from its European sites. On Monday, Stellantis announced it will invest $13 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, increasing American production by 50%. The expansion will create 5,000 new jobs across plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana.

The concrete impact on German production remains unclear. Stellantis offered no comments on potential layoffs, but it’s safe to assume significant parts of production will shift to the U.S. in the coming years. High energy costs and U.S. tariffs likely influenced this decision.

CEO Antonio Filosa emphasized that this largest investment in company history will create American jobs and systematically expand U.S. manufacturing. The U.S. will now be Stellantis’ top priority.

Germany Avoided 

Stellantis’ damning verdict, especially for its German production sites, is just the tip of the iceberg in an accelerated capital flight from Germany. Major German automakers are increasingly relocating production abroad: BMW to Debrecen, Hungary—and Mercedes-Benz to Kecskemét, Hungary.

Industry is abandoning Germany. The manufacture of energy-intensive products, electrical engineering, machinery, and raw materials is no longer profitable under current conditions. It seems almost comical—if it weren’t so tragic—when Minister of Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche, noting Germany’s lack of competitiveness, forms a task force to develop strategies out of the crisis.

A quick ten-second search on „Grok“ could illuminate the issues—the problems are already well known.

The Green Deal Remains the Golden Calf 

Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz made clear during the EU summit that all options are being considered—except tackling the root cause: the grotesque European climate policy that largely triggered this industrial collapse.

The reflexive defense of Brussels’ climate consensus under all circumstances shows Berlin fully understands what’s driving Germany’s economic collapse. Yet the government pins its last hope on a massive debt package that will pour roughly €50 billion in additional annual spending across the country. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil expressed hope at the UN summit that private industry will invest now that the state is taking the lead.

The response should be: far from it, Mr. Minister. You misread economic reality. The fact that U.S. chipmaker Intel rejected a €10 billion subsidy to set up in Magdeburg shows the problems run much deeper—and cannot be fixed with handouts. Keynesian “voodoo economics” has reached its limits. Germany is on sale; industrial investors have already passed judgment.

Rust Belt on the Horizon 

Political ignorance will cost dearly. Losing the industrial base triggers massive societal distortions. Recent industrial history provides several illustrative examples: the decline of the English textile industry, Argentina’s machinery sector—or closer to home, the collapse of coal and steel in the Ruhr.

Left behind are true Rust Belts, as in the U.S. Detroit, once America’s wealthiest city, fell as its auto industry collapsed, allowing other hubs, particularly in Japan and China, to rise.

The industrial foundation is key to understanding economy and prosperity. Statistically, one industrial job creates four or five additional jobs in supply chains, services, and consumption. Industrial jobs are typically above-average paying; losing them sparks a chain reaction of social and economic decay.

UK as a Case Study 

The U.K. provides a textbook case. Once at the peak of global industrial output, the empire financed massive overseas infrastructure projects. Imperial overstretch followed, investments collapsed, and industrial decline set in. Other industrial centers, notably the U.S., rose.

Left behind was the City of London: a global financial hub surrounded by a powerful insurance architecture across former empire trade routes. A dual society emerged: the finance center exercising global influence, and “Little Britain,” trapped in poverty. Could Germany face the same fate, minus colonial flows of finance and power?

Time Window Closing 

Currently, around 5.4 million Germans still work in industry—autos, machinery, electrical engineering. Since 2018, their number has fallen by roughly 250,000. Industrial output has dropped by an average of 23%, representing at least €35 billion in lost annual value creation.

There is still time to counteract—so far, mostly lower-value production has been outsourced or shut. There is still time to preserve both Germany’s industrial and social foundations in urban regions.

Yet deindustrialization now shows on the municipal level. Regions dependent on autos are seeing local finances collapse amid the catastrophe facing German carmakers. Too much responsibility is centralized; now funds for schools, kindergartens, cultural institutions, and hospitals are missing. Cities like Stuttgart and Wolfsburg, once automotive strongholds, are fiscally drained.

With industry also disappears private patronage. Germany is losing its millionaires and economically successful elite faster than ever. This year, at least 400 wealthy individuals will likely leave, removing over €2 billion in private capital.

Last year, €64.5 billion in corporate direct investment was shifted abroad—much of it to the U.S. This is capital translating directly into economic activity, not stock market circulation.

History teaches: if elites lose faith in a society or business location, social crisis inevitably grows from that vacuum.

Authored by Gary Abernathy via The Empowerment Alliance,

The public “net zero” pledges by countless corporate and political entities in recent years were always baffling. How could the United States or much of the industrialized world reach “net zero” emissions without destroying modern living?

As a reminder, “net zero” is a term coined to illustrate a goal of “eliminating greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activities, which is accomplished by decreasing global emissions and abating them from the atmosphere,” as defined by Net0.com, a company that describes itself as “the market leader in AI-First Sustainability, enabling governments and enterprises worldwide to enhance their environmental performance and decarbonize profitably.”

Net0 posits that “the global scientific community agrees that to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, we must reduce worldwide net human-generated carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 45 percent from their 2010 levels by the year 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by around 2050.”

In a political atmosphere shaming anyone who didn’t join the climate cult – led in the U.S. by the Biden administration and globally by the U.N. – attempting to outdo each other for the most aggressive “net zero” policy was all the rage.

“As of June 2024, 107 countries… had adopted net-zero pledges either in law, in a policy document such as a national climate action plan or a long-term strategy, or in an announcement by a high-level government official,” boasted the United Nations. “More than 9,000 companies, over 1,000 cities, more than 1,000 educational institutions, and over 600 financial institutions have joined the Race to Zero, pledging to take rigorous, immediate action to halve global emissions by 2030.”

But as politicians know, promises and actions are often unrelated. Most people endowed with even a modicum of common sense and a grade-school understanding of basic science knew that meeting “net zero” goals would require a reduction in the use of our most affordable, effective and reliable energy sources to a degree that would devastate modern economies.

The fact that “net zero” pledges were nothing but a cruel joke was made clear last month in a story by NPR headlined, “Leaders promised to cut climate pollution, then doubled down on fossil fuels.” Most thinking people were as surprised by that headline as by discovering wet water, hot fire or flying birds. It was not necessary to read further. “Of course,” they said to themselves, moving on to the next story.

But there are, sadly, climate cult converts who, in their shock, likely needed more details.

They discovered: “The world is producing too much coal, oil and natural gas to meet the targets set 10 years ago under the Paris Agreement, in which countries agreed to limit climate pollution and avoid the worst effects of global warming,” NPR reported.

“A new report, led by the nonprofit research group Stockholm Environment Institute, shows countries plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit),” the story said.

For the true believers, here’s the real punch to the gut: “The SEI report shows the 20 most polluting countries, including China, the U.S. and India, actually plan to produce even more fossil fuels than they did two years ago, when the report was last updated.”

Of course, as he did in his first term, President Trump is pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement as he unleashes American industry and works to ensure energy affordability, independence and security for the nation. Legislation to roll back taxpayer subsidies for “renewables” and return to “reliables” has already been passed or introduced in various states and is soon likely to be fortified at the federal level.

After wasting billions of tax dollars on wind and solar subsidies that could have been directed toward schools, healthcare or other real needs, the fever is finally breaking. The world is slowly but surely awakening from the delusions of climate zealots who insisted that we were on the verge of catastrophe with constantly worsening weather disasters.

Just last May, for example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.” And just a few months earlier, PBS NewsHour reported on a study showing that “human-caused climate change made Atlantic hurricanes about 18 miles per hour (29 kilometers per hour) stronger in the last six years.”

The message was clear. More hurricanes. Stronger hurricanes. This year’s reality so far?

“The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is the first time in 10 years that a hurricane has not made landfall in the United States through the end of September,” according to American Press. While “hurricane season” extends through November, September is usually the busiest month.

The weather is – and has always been – unpredictable. Severe weather events like hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, floods, blizzards and drought have always been with us, and always will. The attempt to demonize humankind for the frequency and severity of the weather has been politically motived and economically disastrous.

“Net zero” pledges are being revealed for the false promises they most often were, designed mainly to win plaudits from the Lecturing Left. For leaders grounded in facts, real-world needs have always meant that no one is easing off the gas.