Futures are higher led by technology stocks, after solid earnings from ASML offered fresh evidence of the relentless demand for chips enabling the global AI buildout and boosted sentiment across the AI Infra trade. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures rise 0.4%, both off session highs. In Tech, focus is on ASML +4%  on guidance raise (US Semicap Equipment peers +2-4% in sympathy),  PYPL +20% on reports of a Stripe/Advent takeover offer;  AAPL +0.50% and BABA +4% on China approval of Alibaba “Qwen AI” integration into the iPhone experience; and NVDA flat on Jensen commentary that Vera Rubin chips were on track for deliver to customers (countering delay talk).  On the US/Iran front, the US carried out another round of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz overnight and President Trump said the US may hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran returns to negotiations and makes a deal (also have report from Axios that Trump held a meeting in the situation room yesterday to discuss a new offensive). According to JPM, the tech complex is also getting a boost thanks to stabilization in Korea, with KOSPI adding 6% overnight (JPM APAC says that foreign & institutional demand is stepping into Korea as domestic retail investors are selling). Asia finished mixed (Shanghai -29bps / Hang Seng +1.4% / Nikkei +1.49% / Kospi +6.3%) as the day to day volatility continued in Korea (Hynix +4%, which appeared to be a “catch up” to SKHY post its +27% move in the US session). Bond yields edged higher in the US and Europe, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries up one basis point to 4.60%. The dollar wavered. While money markets have mostly priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve hike later this month, expectations for a move in September remained high. Commodities are seeing a bid with gold the notable laggard. Brent crude futures rise 0.5% to just above $85 a barrel while European natural gas futures rise 3% to the highest since March. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near flat. Today’s macro data focus in on PPI and then macro read-through from names in Fins and Transports.  

In premarket trading, Mag 7stocks are mostly higher (Apple +0.6%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%, Nvidia -0.2%)

• ASML Holding NV ADRs (ASML) gain 3% after the company lifted its annual sales forecast for the second time this year and laid out plans to increase production as a surge in artificial intelligence spending drives demand for the Dutch company’s chip-making machines.
• BlackRock (BLK) gains 4% after pulling in $192 billion of net client cash in the second quarter, with investors pouring money into exchange-traded funds and pushing total assets above $15 trillion for the first time.
• Elevance Health (ELV) falls 7% after boosting its profit guidance by less than Wall Street had hoped, as the company grapples with recent federal policy changes that have made healthcare more expensive. Peer health insurers are also lower, with Humana (HUM) down 1.6% and Centene (CNC) falling 4%.
• Lionsgate Studios (LION) climbs 7% after Reuters reported that the company is exploring a sale and has attracted takeover interest from Bollore Group. Reuters cited three unidentified people familiar with the matter.
• PayPal (PYPL) jumps 20% after Reuters reported Stripe and private equity company Advent ​International have made a joint offer to ‌buy PayPal for $60.50 per share, valuing the payments firm at more than $53 billion.
• Pentair (PNR) tumbles 22% after the water treatment company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The company also said it appointed Robert Fishman as interim CFO after Nicholas Brazis resigned on July 10 to pursue another opportunity at a private company.
• Phoenix Education (PXED) drops 10% after the online education company trimmed its net revenue guidance for the full year.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) fall 6%.
• SpaceX (SPCX) is up 0.7% after closing on Tuesday just $1 above the IPO price.

In other corporate news Nokia says it developed the first commercial AI-driven radio access network (RAN) platform together with Nvidia to radically increase the amount of data operators can transmit using existing infrastructure. Apollo landed the biggest private credit deal on record, offering Broadcom $35 billion of debt, in the latest sign that the buyout shop-turned-blue chip lender is muscling in on the turf of Wall Street. OpenAI’s much-anticipated push into consumer devices is slated to begin with a mobile, screen-free smart speaker designed to be a new type of home computer for the AI era. Lionsgate Studios is exploring a sale and has attracted takeover interest from Bollore Group, Reuters reports.

Tech sentiment was boosted by blowout results from European chip giant ASML and a rebound in Korean stocks. Coming into ASML’s results, analysts set the bar high, expecting an upgrade to full-year net sales guidance. Europe’s most valuable company delivered, but clarity is needed on its conference call as to whether the chip equipment leader can meet the required capacity in the face of soaring AI-fueled demand. 

And speaking of lack of capacity, overnight we reported that the biggest US power grid failed for a third straight time to secure enough future supply commitments to ensure reliability in coming years amid a boom in data center demand. Power-hungry data centers have increased supply costs for the largest US electric grid by more than 60%, the system watchdog said. 

Oil prices rose for a third straight day after the US military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, with Brent advancing 1.1% to around $85.60 a barrel. Overnight President Trump said the US may hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran returns to negotiations and makes a deal (also have report from Axios that Trump held a meeting in the situation room yesterday to discuss a new offensive). 

Despite the uncertainty created by the standoff, investors say crude prices remain well off their highs above $100 a barrel from earlier in the conflict. Instead, traders are looking at whether earnings can justify high valuations, with early results this season looking promising. “Investors are aware that the road toward peace could never have been expected to be a straight line,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “As such, company fundamentals matter more than ever.” 

Bullish AI momentum is not without risks. Repeating what we said over the weekend, Bloomberg writes that signs of Hyperscaler credit stress has reached the highest since Goldman Sachs launched the basket in February.

Hyperscaler bond basket: another day, another record wide https://t.co/Ge41UpsaL9 pic.twitter.com/nssT8MoTeH

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2026

The data-center building boom has sparked an explosion of debt funding, with investors not paying enough attention to the terms of their lending, Bloomberg also noted. 

The threat posed by oil prices will remain in focus with the release of June’s producer price print. Inflation data on Tuesday delivered a strong downside surprise, prompting traders to dial down their expectations for near-term interest-rate hikes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify in the Senate on Wednesday, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Lisa Cook scheduled to speak at separate engagements. 

“Any hint toward the CPI print being an outlier could revive rate hike concerns,” Kempner said. “This would be even more true if other Fed officials start to echo yesterday’s comments from the Fed Chair about the mission being ‘not yet’ accomplished.”

In politics, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is set to appear Wednesday before the US Senate in support of his nomination to lead the Justice Department — just days after a federal judge in Miami issued harsh criticism of his actions in the job. Over in Europe, Marine Le Pen’s revived bid for the French presidency is giving investors like Vanguard and Natixis another reason to avoid the country’s government bonds.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed thanks to ASML whose shares rise ~5% after the firm lifted its annual sales forecast for the second time this year and laid out plans to increase production. Gains in luxury names are also helping to offset losses elsewhere after Richemont sales expanded nearly twice as much as expected. Here are the biggest movers:

• European fintech stocks gain after Reuters reported that Stripe and private equity company Advent are offering to buy PayPal at a valuation of more than $53 billion
• Richemont surges as much as 7.4% to an all-time high after the Swiss jeweler reported first-quarter sales growth that was nearly twice as strong as expected
• ASML shares rise as much as 7.9% after the chip equipment firm raised FY guidance for this year and set capacity expansion goals for the next two years
• ICG shares rise as much as 3.4%, trimming year-to-date declines, after the alternative asset manager reported first-quarter assets under management slightly ahead of estimates
• Barratt Redrow shares rise as much as 6% after the UK homebuilder said it will return £400 million to shareholders this year. Sector peers are also finding support from Barratt’s FY update
• Camurus shares jump as much as 16%, the most since November, after the Swedish biopharmaceutical firm reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the second quarter
• Rio Tinto falls as much as 2.3% in London, the most in a week, after the miner reported 2Q copper production that declined from the previous comparable period
• Elis shares slide as much as 4% to €24.64 after holder Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold about 19.3 million shares for €24.60 apiece
• AFRY shares fall as much as 12%, hitting a 2014 low, after the Swedish engineer’s earnings fell short of expectations in the second quarter, according to analysts at Jefferies
• Handelsbanken shares decline as much as 6.2% after the lender reported net interest income for the second quarter that missed estimates while analysts also note weak lending growth in Sweden
• Premier Group falls as much as 7.3% in Johannesburg, the most since April 2025, after stockholder CapitalWorks sold shares in the packaged foods company at a discount

Asian stocks climbed the most in almost two weeks after a softer US inflation print relieved concerns over imminent rate hikes, while South Korea led advances in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.9%, the most since July 3. Leading contributor SK Hynix soared 9% in Seoul, tracking a surge in its American depositary receipts Tuesday, while chipmakers Samsung and TSMC also climbed after gains in US tech shares. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi jumped 6.2%, while Taiwan’s Taiex climbed the most in two weeks. Mainland China stocks edged lower after data showed the economy slowed more than expected last quarter, to the weakest in more than three years.  With earnings seasons starting, Asian software and IT services stocks followed global peers lower after IBM missed earnings expectations. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose the most in a week, as internet firms such as Tencent and Alibaba gained.

 “Softer-than-expected US inflation data has reduced the risk of a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, which had become a more prominent concern over the past week as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. “Investors have also absorbed last week’s SK Hynix equity issuance, allowing the Korean semiconductor sector to rebound, while the US earnings season has opened on a constructive note.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near flat. The Norwegian krone slipped to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile, falling 0.4% against the greenback after Norway’s core inflation surprised to the downside.

In rates, treasuries are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, unwinding a portion of gains seen Tuesday following a soft CPI print. Treasury curve slightly flatter on the day with front-end leading losses, where 2-year yields trade around 4.215% and cheaper by 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.605% with bunds and gilts both trading slightly cheaper in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Goldman Sachs was one of three issuers Tuesday, selling a combined $13.9 billion of bonds. They paid an average of about 2.3 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.2 times covered. US session focus includes a handful of Federal Reserve speakers and June PPI data.  

In commodities, WTI futures advance almost 1% rising for a third day, and adding some upside pressure on yields, as Trump threatened further strikes on Iran after the US resumed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out more strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of military sites near the strait and along the nation’s coast. Brent crude futures rise 0.5% to just above $85 a barrel while European natural gas futures rise 3% to the highest since March. Precious metals decline.

US economic data calendar includes July Empire manufacturing and June PPI (8:30am). Fed calendar includes Williams (8:45am), Warsh testifies before Senate Banking Committee (10am), Cook (1pm) and Musalem (6:30pm). Fed releases latest Beige book at 2pm

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US launched more airstrikes on Iran, with Donald Trump pledging to intensify his bombardment until Tehran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. BBG
• As the U.S. war with Iran resumes, there is little sign that diplomacy can stop it. Efforts by Arab, Pakistani and other mediators to revive negotiations or restore a ceasefire have shown no public signs of progress, and the overall feeling in the Middle East and beyond is that the fighting will simply continue for now, according to two analysts and a person familiar with the situation. Politico
• The cost of the war with Iran could be more than triple the most recent estimate of roughly $30 billion, according to three U.S. officials and three people familiar with the internal cost estimates. NBC
• Nasdaq futures advanced as ASML raised its annual sales forecast for the second time this year, offering fresh evidence of AI-driven demand. SK Hynix continued its volatile run though, with the stock jumping in Seoul but ADRs falling premarket. BBG
• Stripe and Advent offered to buy PayPal at a valuation of more than $53 billion, Reuters reported. Their $60.50-a-share bid is around 28% more than PayPal’s closing price yesterday. RTRS
• BABA (Alibaba)’s Qwen AI will be integrated into Apple Intelligence in China. RTRS
• China’s economy slowed more than expected last quarter to the weakest in more than three years, raising pressure on policymakers to speed up public spending to ensure their annual growth goal is met. China’s Q2 GDP came in a bit below expectations (+4.3% vs. the Street +4.5% and down from +5% in Q1), but retail sales were ahead of plan for June (+1% vs. the Street -0.1%), as was industrial production (+5.3% vs. the Street +4.6%)  BBG
• Trump administration may pursue further executive action addressing China-related concerns over open-source AI models, according to Semafor citing an unnamed senior White House official.
• Beijing plans to fight attempts to monopolize advances in AI technology, state newspaper People’s Daily reported, following US attempts to curtail overseas access to cutting-edge models. BBG
• The rush for cash by some of the world’s largest companies is putting the long bull market at risk. Investors have been cheering the raging bull market for years—three years and nine months, to be precise—with the S&P 500 having more than doubled during that period. Now companies are racing to take advantage, raising concern that the party could be coming to an end. WS
• Fundamental L/S Gross leverage has declined in 5 of the last 6 weeks to 207.2% (28th percentile 1-year, 75th percentile 3-year). After reaching a 4-year high in early June, Fundamental L/S Net leverage has fallen -6.7 pts to 54.5% (22nd percentile 1-year, 39th percentile 3-year). Goldman PB

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks traded with a positive bias as most major indices took impetus from the gains on Wall St, where sentiment was underpinned, and Fed rate hike bets were trimmed following softer-than-expected CPI data, while US President Trump also abandoned plans for a 20% Hormuz fee. ASX 200 eked out marginal gains with outperformance in miners following Rio Tinto’s quarterly update, although the upside in the index was capped as defensives lag. Nikkei 225 rallied amid tech strength, but with further upside limited following weak Machinery Orders. KOSPI was boosted by the tech-related momentum and with SK Hynix shares up by a double-digit percentage as it played catch-up to the 27% surge in its ADRs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged with the mainland lagging after a slew of mixed data releases, including Chinese GDP and activity data.

Top Asian News

• China announced a five-year plan to boost consumption and targets CNY 60tln yuan in retail sales by 2030, according to Nikkei.
• China’s stats bureau deputy head said China’s CPI and PPI are in reasonable ranges and hard won given most countries face big price increases, while the official added that China’s energy supplies are sufficient, production is stable, and imports are under control. Furthermore, it was stated that the Q2 GDP growth slowdown is due mainly to short-term factors and external factors, while H1 GDP growth lays a good foundation for achieving the full-year growth target.
• Japan added a footnote on BoJ autonomy to its revised fiscal policy draft, Bloomberg reported.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said FX rates should be determined by the market; boosting international competitiveness will boost the credibility of JPY.
• India announced INR 1.28tln new semiconductor manufacturing plan, according to reports.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) are broadly lower, with the outperformance in the AEX (+0.8%) following ASML earnings. Despite the lack of clear drivers for the underperformance, geopolitics persist, with US President Trump announcing that the US will conduct strikes again on Wednesday and threatening to hit power plants and bridges unless Iran starts to negotiate. Sectors are broadly negative. Consumer Products & Services (+1.2%) tops the sector pile, as positive Richemont earnings lift other luxury names, while Tech (+1.0%) also gains. To the downside lie Optimised Personal Care (-1.1%), Chemicals (-1.1%) and Telecoms (-0.8%). The highly anticipated ASML earnings did not disappoint. Top and bottom line figures beat estimates while raising its FY revenue guidance to EUR 43-45bln (exp. 39.4bln, prev. guided 36-40bln). Looking ahead to Q3, ASML projects sales of between EUR 11-12bln, above Jefferies’ estimates of EUR 10.34bln. ASML stated that they are considering a 30% boost to EUV output for 2027 and again in 2028. Both Citi and JPMorgan highlighted this as a positive, with JPMorgan projecting it to add over EUR 65 in EPS in 2028. However, Citi points out that the 2027 production figure would amount to around 85 machines, which is below its forecast of between 90-100. Gains were seen as much as 7.4% at the start of trade, but has since pulled back to around 3.7%. US equity futures are firmer across the board. NQ (+0.5%) is the clear outperformer, helped by the ASML earnings and gains in SK Hynix overnight; however have come off in recent trade (in line with ASML). Banking earnings continue in the US, with Morgan Stanley on the docket.

Top European News

• Ed Miliband’s opponents in the Labour Party believe he has failed his bid to become Chancellor, with current Home Secretary Mahmoud seen by some MPs as favourite to take the Chancellor role in Andy Burnham’s new government, according to FT.
• OECD said the UK economy to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, with risks tilted to the downside. Added that fiscal discipline is essential to the UK.
• German government is planning a EUR 13.3bln energy relief package for 2027, which will be used to assist businesses and consumers.

FX

• G10s mixed against the Buck, which is flat on the day despite being off recent lows. AUD and GBP lead; NOK underperforms.
• DXY looks to breach 101.00 after lifting from recent lows in the wake of cool US CPI on Tuesday. As Fed Chair Warsh said during the House testimony on Tuesday, one series does not make a trend, so while bets are trimmed for an immediate hike (prev. markets saw a 50% probability of tightening in July), eyes remain on incoming data. In addition to the post-CPI bounce, the Buck is being helped by energy benchmarks, which remain elevated amid a lack of positive Gulf newsflow.
• NOK is the worst G10 performer after the Norges Bank’s preferred inflation gauge, CPI-ATE, came in cooler than analyst/Norges Bank forecasts. NOK saw immediate pressure on the release (which was originally scheduled for 10th July).
• AUD and GBP are the best-performing G10 currencies, helped by the above factor as the cooler-than-expected US CPI trimmed bets for near-term Fed tightening, increasing appetite for these high-yielders.
• For GBP specifically, the UK press suggested Energy Secretary Miliband was less-favoured in the race for Chancellor, now Foreign Secretary Cooper and Home Secretary Mahmood are favourites for the job. Markets think that Mahmood would be fiscally conservative given her view on immigration; however, she lacks experience in economic roles, whereas Cooper previously worked as Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown. GBP/USD +0.1% and either side of the 1.34 mark.

Fixed Income

• USTs remain contained, caught between CPI and Warsh. Bunds lower on energy, but off worst levels despite a sharp but ultimately short-lived decline in the early morning. Gilts opened on the backfoot, given energy.
• USTs flat in a narrow 108-24+ to 108-31+ band, fresh catalysts light. Commentary remains focused on June’s dovish CPI report and the subsequent hawkish Fed testimony from Chair Warsh. Today, we get more insight on both points via Warsh’s Senate testimony and US PPI for June. Additionally, Fed’s Williams (voter) is on the docket.
• Bunds lower by around 20 ticks, but are a similar amount clear of the 124.79 trough. A base that printed in a bout of somewhat short-lived bout of pressure this morning. No obvious catalyst behind that, though it did occur in tandem with modest DAX and EUR downside. Ongoing focus on pension reform may have contributed, given reporting earlier in Politico that suggested pension points could be reduced in some scenarios, saving multiple billions; though, the debate continues and won’t be resolved this week.
• Alternatively, or additionally, the German Finance Ministry outlined that some EUR 13bln or energy-related relief is planned for 2027, funding for that to be sourced from the climate relief package.
• Gilts opened lower by 16 ticks and have since moved lower to an 86.89 base, holding above the 86.87 and 86.42 lows from the last two sessions. Pressure the typical underperformance seen in Gilts when energy leads. No real relief from reports, such as the FT, suggesting that Miliband has lost the race to be Chancellor; though, outlets make clear that no decision has been made yet, ahead of Burnham becoming PM this weekend.
• Germany sells EUR 0.753bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2054, EUR 0.768bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.90% 2056 & EUR 0.759 vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 0.00% 2052 Bund.
• Australia sells AUD 700mln 4.50% Apr 2033 bonds b/c 4.29, avg yield 4.6620%.

Commodities

• Geopolitics remains in focus, with US and Iran still conducting strikes. Markets appear to be accustomed to the ongoing attacks, with focus now on how transits through the Strait are being impacted. On that note, 11 vessels went through the passage, 9 of those used the Iranian-designated route. Yen Ling Song of S&P Global Energy wrote that “we are seeing significantly greater caution among shipowners and operators”, given the threat of Iranian strikes. On this front, traders have continued to price in another supply glut this month – and recent rhetoric from President Trump/Iran, does not point to a near term resolution.
• To recap, Trump warned that they would be striking Iran on Wednesday night, and threatened to hit power plants/bridges next week, unless Iran negotiates. Iran stated that it is a mistake to think military action will force them to talk.
• Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer this morning. Price action overnight was fairly rangebound, but then dipped in early European trade – benchmarks have remained near recent lows since. Brent Sept’26 traded within a USD 85.02-86.55/bbl range.
• Spot gold is a little lower this morning, but ultimately within the prior day’s ranges. Price action which appears to be a bit of pull-back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, following the cooler-than-expected CPI print. The yellow-metal currently holds above the USD 4k/oz mark, in a USD 4,017-4,062/oz range. Base metals hold a negative bias, as markets digested mixed Chinese data. 3M LME Copper traded within a USD 13,550-13,677/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.6mln (exp. -2.7mln), Distillates +2.3mln (exp. +1.0mln), Gasoline -1.7mln (exp. +0.6mln), Cushing +0.2mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said they are aiming to have the EU-India FTA implemented in 2027.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Nagel said from a monetary policy perspective, it remains advisable to react with caution but to act decisively if needed. Monetary policy will maintain its vigilant stance.
• ECB’s Panetta said EZ inflation is currently around 3% and expected to remain above that level until early 2027. Risks linked to higher energy prices, tighter financial conditions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty appear to be only partially incorporated into market evaluations. Several indicators suggest the rise in equity markets seen after the Iran conflict is due to an underestimation of risks. ECB’s goal is to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored, limiting indirect and second-round effects of shocks.
• ECB’s Kocher said they are ready to take monetary policy actions at any time if needed, adding that the ECB will do what is needed to bring inflation to 2% in medium-term and no second round effects seen currently.
• ECB’s Cipollone said that he is not currently seeing second round inflation effects, but monitors inflation expectations “very closely”.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said in a pre-recorded Fox News interview that they are beating up Iran badly and Hormuz has to stay open, while he added that strikes will continue until he says it is enough, as well as stated they will save energy targets for last and will ultimately hit energy targets. Trump also said they will hit Iran hard on Wednesday night, and that next week will get really bad for Iran, in which they will hit Iran’s power plants and bridges next week unless Iran comes to the negotiating table. Furthermore, he said US officials spoke to Iran on Tuesday and told Iran that it better make a deal.
• US Central Command forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Tuesday, to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while CENTCOM later announced the completion of strikes against Iran.
• US struck Qeshm Island in southern Iran, and explosions were heard in the maritime area of eastern Hormozgan and Sirik, while explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and Hengam Island. Explosions were also heard in Bampur and Chabahar in Iran, although Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim noted officials denied reports of explosions in Chabahar, while explosions were reported in Iran’s port city of Bandar Imam Khomeini, and a mineral water plant in Deloran was hit by three projectiles. Furthermore, reports noted that air defences around the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran became active.
• IRGC said it targeted enemy weapons and parts storage in Bahrain and Kuwait, while it targeted a drone ramp in Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem air base and targeted US positions at Jordan’s Azraq base, as well as the US Fifth Fleet Command HQ, fuel facilities and equipment in Bahrain. IRGC said as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region, and that US aggression will have no result other than delaying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran will respond to the US attacks, Tasnim reported.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US is making a mistake if it thinks its military attacks and blockade will force them to request negotiations, but also commented that Iran’s return to negotiations and tolerance regarding the Strait of Hormuz is possible. Furthermore, he said the MoU effectively no longer exists and that no country should expect Iran to continue implementing the terms of the memorandum.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu is reportedly to travel to Washington on Saturday evening, aiming to meet with US President Trump, Yedioth reported.

US Event calendar

• 7:00 am: Jul 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.2%
• 8:30 am: Jul Empire Manufacturing, est. 9.2, prior 5.7
• 8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.1%
• 8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.2%, prior 6.5%
• 8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.1%, prior 4.9%

Central Bank speakers

• 8:45 am: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks
• 10:00 am: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee
• 1:00 pm: Fed’s Cook Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 2:00 pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
• 6:30 pm: Fed’s Musalem Delivers Welcoming Remarks

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A quick reminder the WOW! pack can be found here but life moves onto to the 2026 “Mapping the World’s Prices” document which saw a whole host of press coverage from all round the world yesterday from Athens to Zurich and Berlin to Wellington. The stand-out theme from this year’s edition is just how cheap Japan is. For example, a meal for two in Tokyo is a third of a cost of that in Zurich or New York. When we started the document in 2012 the US was very cheap and now its very expensive. Unless a country is in terminal difficulty, relative prices are a good future mean reversion indicator. For Japan we will likely look back on these relative prices as an indicator of how cheap it is. If nothing else it’s a very cheap destination for next year’s holidays. There’s plenty of other info on 69 globally important cities. See the report here at the Deutsche Bank Research Institute.  I wonder how cheap or expensive England 2026 World Cup Winning T-shirts will be in London tomorrow!  

As we await the second semi-final, it’s been another eventful 24 hours for markets, with investors taking heart from a huge downside surprise in the US CPI print, even as oil prices kept ratcheting higher. So markets rapidly priced out the chance of a Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks’ time, with US Treasuries posting strong gains as a result. Indeed, the 2yr yield (-9.0bps) was down to 4.19%, its biggest decline since May, whilst the S&P 500 (+0.38%) moved back within 1% of its record high from last month. In Asia US futures continue to rise and the KOSPI is back with a 7% plus day. More on that later but first the US inflation data.  

That CPI print was the main catalyst for the cross market rally, after consumer prices fell by -0.4% in June (vs. -0.1% expected). In fact, it was the biggest monthly price drop since the pandemic lockdowns of April 2020, and it pushed the year-on-year reading all the way down to +3.5%, having been at +4.2% in May. Admittedly, that was driven by a big slump in gasoline prices, which plummeted by -9.7% on the month. But even core CPI was surprising on the downside too, with a -0.02% monthly price drop (vs. +0.2% expected) amid a decline in core goods prices and subdued rent inflation. So that marked the first decline for core CPI since May 2020, and it pushed the year-on-year reading for core CPI down to +2.6%.

For markets, the main consequence was that the chance of a July rate hike was immediately priced out, with the probability down from 43% on Monday to just 17% by last night’s close. And that effect was clear further out the curve, as the chance of a hike by September also fell back to 66%, signaling a growing chance that the Fed might remain on hold for some months to come. Moreover, that led to a big decline for Treasury yields too, with the 10yr yield (-3.4bps) down to 4.59% by the close.

The 10yr Treasury yield traded low as 4.521% post-CPI but it then recovered somewhat, in part as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to strike a tough note on inflation as he delivered his first testimony as Chair before the House Financial Services Committee. Warsh refrained from any direct policy guidance, while noting that yesterday’s softer CPI print did not mean “mission accomplished”. He also said that “members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” and argued that if the Fed “get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” In all, the new Chair looked to cement inflation-fighting credibility. But he was fortunate to be making these tough remarks in a day of soft CPI, with the inflation data easing the pressure for any immediate policy tightening.   

Yet even as CPI surprised on the downside, oil prices continued to move higher, with Brent crude up another +1.72% yesterday to $84.73/bbl, taking its 2-day gain since the weekend to +11.47%. Nevertheless, that was actually well beneath the intraday peak above $87/bbl, with a big pullback after President Trump said that the proposal for a 20% fee in the Strait of Hormuz would be replaced by “Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States.” Meanwhile, the US military announced that it had resumed its naval blockade of Iran overnight, with Iranian media reporting an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, Brent is +1.19% higher, trading at 85.74/bbl as we go to print.  

But for the most part, there were signs that investors were still looking through the latest oil price spike. Brent is well below its peak from earlier in the year, having spent around two months above $100/bbl. And as Henry pointed out yesterday (link here), earlier in the year it took Brent at $110/bbl before we saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. And if we look back at the 2022 shock as well, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in today’s prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which we’re still some way from right now.

For equities, yesterday was another eventful session as earnings season started to get going. At the headline level, the S&P 500 (+0.38%) did well thanks to the downside CPI print and the dovish rates repricing. But this included some big moves under the surface, with IBM (-25.21%) posting its biggest daily decline in available Bloomberg data back to 1968, after they missed analyst estimates. It’s another example of the huge ongoing tech disruption. Other software stocks also underperformed, including ServiceNow (-5.76%) and Adobe (-4.30%). Despite this, the information technology sector (+1.25%) was the best performer in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ was up +0.90% amid gains for chipmakers that pushed the Philly semiconductor index +2.54% higher. So differentiation within the tech sector continues to be an ongoing theme, and one that supported the headline indices yesterday even as the equal-weighted S&P 500 slipped (-0.38%).

There were also some big earnings advances as well, with Goldman Sachs (+9.00%) posting its best day since Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension last year, which came after their own earnings beat expectations. There were also sizeable gains for JPMorgan (+2.50%) and Bank of America (+1.88%) after their results, which helped the KBW Bank index to a +1.05% gain. This morning S&P (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.74%) futures continue to rally.  

Asian equity markets are also higher with the KOSPI (+7.70%) back leading the gains. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.14%) and the Hang Seng (+1.46%) are also posting solid advances, while mainland Chinese equities remain subdued, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) after Q2 GDP “only” expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, falling short of 4.5% expectations and slowing notably from the previous quarter (5%). As a result, first-half growth came in at 4.7%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.9%, marking the slowest pace of expansion in more than two years.

Additional June data presented a mixed picture of momentum. Industrial production increased 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 4.6% and accelerating from 4.5% in May, highlighting continued strength in the industrial sector. In contrast, fixed-asset investment fell -5.7% in the first half of the year from a year earlier, a steeper decline than expected and a deterioration from the -4.1% drop recorded over the January–May period. Retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in June, outperforming expectations for a slight contraction, although consumer spending remained relatively subdued. Meanwhile, China’s property market continued to weaken, with new home prices declining -0.15% month-on-month in June. While this represented a modest improvement from May’s -0.20% decline, persistent softness in housing demand across most regions continued to outweigh isolated signs of stabilization in major cities.

Earlier in Europe, markets generally put in a decent performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+0.17%) reaching a one-week high, alongside modest gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.30%), the DAX (+0.13%) and the CAC 40 (+0.03%). For sovereign bonds there was a weaker performance however, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.8bps) and BTPs (+1.1bps) all moving higher. But as with the oil price, that was actually a decent pullback from earlier in the session, when the 10yr bund yield had been up over +3bps on the day.  

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Warsh again, who’s appearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams, Cook and Musalem, the ECB’s Panetta and Nagel, and the BoE’s Pill. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest policy decision, and the Fed will release their Beige Book. Data releases include US PPI inflation for June, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for July. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, United Airlines, and Johnson & Johnson.

Technology stocks moved higher early Wednesday after ASML Holding delivered strong earnings and raised its full-year guidance, providing fresh evidence that demand for the advanced chips and manufacturing equipment powering the AI boom remains intact.

Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 40bps, while ASML shares rose 4% in Amsterdam after the company lifted its annual sales forecast for the second time this year. SK Hynix surged 8.8% in Seoul as the memory-chip maker’s locally listed shares caught up with its US-listed ADRs, which soared 27% on Tuesday.

Focusing on ASML earnings, the company now expects annual revenue of 43 billion euros to 45 billion euros, well above its previous guidance and the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 39.3 billion euros.

Second-quarter sales and profit also beat the Bloomberg Consensus estimate, while ASML lifted its full-year gross-margin forecast to as much as 56%, exceeding the 52.5% estimate.

ASML shares are up 4% in Amsterdam. Year-to-date, shares have risen 75%, continuing a powerful uptrend and maintaining the up-and-to-the-right pattern since mid-2025.

ASML plans to increase capacity for its low-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography machines by about 30% in 2027 and is considering another 30% expansion in 2028. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers are increasing capital-spending plans, creating demand for more machines beginning this year.

Here’s a snapshot of the full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees net sales EU43 billion to EU45 billion, saw EU36 billion to EU40 billion, estimate EU39.3 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees gross margin 54% to 56%, saw 51% to 53%, estimate 52.5%

Third quarter forecast:

• Sees net sales EU11.0 billion to EU12.0 billion, estimate EU10.27 billion
• Sees gross margin 55% to 57%, estimate 52.5%
• Sees R&D expenses about EU1.2 billion

Results suggest that ASML customers, including TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, are expanding production, while Intel has begun using the company’s most advanced High-NA system. ASML expects a surge in demand from Elon Musk’s proposed Terafab chipmaking project.

Here is Goldman analysts’ first take on the ASML earnings, very positive:

ASML: Q2 beat, FY26 guidance was raised, and — more importantly — management gave stronger color on 2027 and 2028

Low-NA EUV capacity, directly addressing the key investor debate. Q2 sales of €9.3bn beat consensus of €8.9bn and came in above the top end of guidance.

Gross margin of 54.0% was also well ahead of the 51–52% guide and 51.7% consensus. Q3 guidance was materially better than expected, with sales of €11–12bn — around 11% above VA consensus at the midpoint — and gross margin of 55–57%, implying Q3 EBIT is roughly 26% above VA consensus.

The most important takeaway is that management addressed the core investor question on AI-driven EUV capacity. ASML said AI demand is accelerating customer capacity plans, order intake was “extremely strong,” and it now plans to add 30% to 2026 Low-NA EUV capacity of c.65 tools for 2027, taking capacity to roughly 85 tools.

Other commentary from Wall Street (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Barclays (overweight)

• “We think ASML has given a lot of what investors were looking for,” says analyst Simon Coles
• Says its guidance for low-NA EUV capacity for 2027 and 2028 should reduce investor debate on whether the firm is supply constrained
• Low-NA EUV bookings in 1H could be as much as €22b, reaching record levels

JPMorgan (overweight)

• The 2028 capacity guidance implies more than €65 in EPS for 2028, potentially enhanced even more so by the very strong installed base management revenue, says analyst Sandeep Deshpande
• The company isn’t guiding to 90 EUV tools for 2027, but “we don’t believe this should matter” given the much stronger-than- expected guidance for EUV and DUV capacity for 2028

Jefferies (hold)

• The company’s outlook comments are mixed, with the strong increase in installed base management sales and gross margins being especially positive, while the 2027 EUV guide is underwhelming, says analyst Janardan Menon
• Says 2027 low-NA EUV capacity guidance is below market expectations that have climbed sharply recently

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

• Despite no longer reporting bookings, the company talked of very strong order intake continuing across 1H, and customers looking to accelerate capacity expansions, says analyst Lee Simpson
• That suggests strong sales momentum into FY27

Oddo BHF (outperform)

• Estimates should go up materially, probably in the range of 20%
• China exposure remains at around 20% of 2026 sales but is now on a materially higher revenue base, with incremental demand coming primarily from logic
• “ASML remains a story of unrivaled tech dominance and now benefits from a fundamentally different cycle driven by AI”

Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, noted, “As such, company fundamentals matter more than ever.”

But more importantly, read our latest note on hyperscaler stress titled “Carnage” In The Hyperscaler Bond Market: Did Goldman Just Pop The AI Debt Bubble … 

Watching the Democratic Socialists of America tighten their grip on the Democratic Party while far-left activists grow louder and bolder in their calls for revolution, “killing capitalists,” and destroying the U.S. “from within” set off alarm bells. 

Even the left-wing outlet The Atlantic acknowledged the troubling rise of “left-wing terrorism” following a wave of riots, political violence, assassinations and attempted assassinations, foiled terror plots, and firebombings targeting private companies.

That raised an important question: Are these efforts by far-left activist networks and NGOs to sow chaos organic, or are they part of, or linked to, foreign subversion networks that are helping fuel the unrest?

That prompted us in December 2025 to ask this question: “Is There a ‘Cuba Connection’ Behind the Radicalization of America’s Nonprofit Left?”

Six and a half months later, a State Department official speaking to Breitbart News appears to be answering the very question we raised months ago.

“The State Department will be issuing a report detailing the Cuban regime’s longstanding campaign to foment left-wing extremism in the United States and internationally,” the official said, adding, “The report finds that for nearly seven decades, the Cuban regime has played an indispensable role in nearly every notable far-left insurgency, revolution, and militant movement across the Western Hemisphere and beyond.”

At the time we raised the question, we explained that the National Network on Cuba (NNOC) is a deliberately loose coalition linking 77 activist organizations, NGOs, and political campaigns while minimizing legal exposure and obscuring clear command structures. The network was also linked to the now-sanctioned Cuban organization known as the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, or ICAP. ICAP is a Castro-era organization used to spread Marxist ideology abroad. 

Think of the NNOC as a potential pathway through which foreign subversion operations could infiltrate U.S. NGOs, with ICAP sitting at the center. Notice that the DSA is listed as a member organization of NNOC.

ICAP functions as the intake valve – political cover for intelligence operations designed to cultivate long-term assets rather than short-term spies.

The DSA is also a stated partner of the sanctioned ICAP.

Should only now make sense why DSA leaders are promoting “destroying America from within,” and the way to do it appears to be through subversion networks empowering overeducated useful liberal idiots. 

Frank, Aaron, Hank and Sam are Communist insurgents, radicalized marxist revolutionaries hiding behind personal ideologies to justfy their 1A expressions of the right to promote the insurrection of the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America pic.twitter.com/XLzzjisOqd

— AnimalFarm1945 (Moshe) (@Farm1945A) July 6, 2026

Just days ago, independent Cuban news outlet ADN Cuba revealed that a US-based Cuba solidarity coalition was giving orders to their far-left revolutionaries embedded within the US to prepare rapid-response protests at US federal buildings, military bases, recruitment centers, and ICE facilities in the event of a military confrontation between the US military and the communist regime in Havana. As we’ve seen before, these protests tend to turn into riots, especially at ICE facilities.

🚨 PRIMERO EN ADN | Documentos revisados por ADN Cuba revelan un plan nacional de “respuesta rápida” distribuido por la Red Nacional sobre Cuba (NNOC), una coalición con vínculos documentados con el ICAP, para coordinar protestas contra oficinas de ICE, bases militares y…

— ADNCuba – Noticias de Cuba (@CubaAdn) July 8, 2026

On Monday…

Cox Media Heir Turned Communist Financier Arrested In Spain, Faces US Extradition https://t.co/1q8Z4MD6Cs

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 14, 2026

Related:

• How Bad Is Foreign Influence In America’s Nonprofit Universe?
• Troubling Pattern Of Left-Wing Revolutionaries Targeting “Capitalists” Raises Alarm Over Youth Radicalization

Meanwhile….

• Bill Clinton Insider Warns Of Socialist Takeover, Calls For Probe Into Possible DSA Foreign Ties

All of this comes ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s planned meeting Thursday with delegations from more than 70 countries to address what the State Department describes as “the resurgence of transnational far-left terrorism,” suggesting the Trump administration is preparing to treat these networks as a coordinated international security threat rather than a series of isolated domestic movements. 

Authored by Diana Furchtgott-Roth via Civitas Outlook,

Andy Burnham has a chance to restore sanity to British politics by choosing domestic production over Chinese renewables.

Britain is suffering from disruptions in both weather and politics as a heat wave grips a country where only four percent of homes have air conditioning. Sir Keir Starmer has resigned as Labour Prime Minister, and former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, elected earlier this month as MP from Makerfield, is slated to replace him.

Since former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May signed Britain up to the amended Climate Change Act in 2019, a binding law requiring a 100 percent reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, Britain has had five Prime Ministers. This outpaces Italy, which has had three, long the byword for political instability in the Western world.

After Mrs. May herself, Britain cycled through Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Sir Keir—none of them popular, none of them successful, all of them departing under economic pressure and in failure. This general dissatisfaction is not a coincidence, but linked to higher energy prices, which reduce growth and employment.

But today’s disruptions could be useful if Sir Keir’s resignation opened a window for Britain to reset its energy policy. Mr. Burnham, dubbed the King of the North, has already signaled that he wants affordable power and British jobs, especially in Britain’s north.

In his victory speech after winning his return to Parliament, Mr. Burnham declared:

“We do need to bring down water bills, energy bills, rail fares, just as we brought down bus fares in Greater Manchester, to make life more affordable for people.”

If he means it, energy is the place to start.

Britain pays 42 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity. Germany, Europe’s other great champion of the green transition, pays 43 cents. The United States, which has no national Net Zero law, pays 20 cents, less than half. Almost every EU country with binding emissions targets pays above 30 cents.

European policy choices have mandated expensive generation, loaded green levies onto bills, and prematurely wound down reliable conventional power. The Brits are paying a Net Zero surcharge on every unit of electricity they consume, every single day, with no measurable effect on global temperatures in 2100. And Britain’s wind and solar dependency funnels money to Chinese state-subsidized manufacturers and workers rather than British ones.

This means slower UK growth. Since the end of 2019, before the pandemic, the United States has recorded total GDP growth of 15.1 percent, compared to just 6 percent for the UK. Forecasts offer little comfort: the OECD projects UK growth of just 0.8 percent in 2026, against 2.3 percent for the United States. Countries with the highest electricity prices are growing the slowest.

And it’s not like Britain is getting top value for its money. Two weeks ago, temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) reduced the efficiency of UK solar panels, and a lack of wind stalled the wind turbines. With electricity demand running at about 36 gigawatts, Britain had to import 20 percent of its electricity from the European Union.

The good news is that Mr. Burnham, with his flexible views, can take a different path.

Britain is not a resource-poor nation forced to depend on foreign suppliers, but a resource-rich nation that has chosen dependency through planning rules, regulatory obstruction, and a Net Zero framework that treats domestic oil and gas production as a moral failing rather than a strategic necessity.

In the short run, Britain could produce more North Sea oil and gas and approve stalled domestic natural gas projects. In the long run, Britain could speed up permitting for nuclear power plants, including new technologies such as floating nuclear reactors in harbors, as proposed by the British company Core Power.

Britain now imports oil and gas from Norway rather than allowing British workers to be well paid to extract them from the same North Sea—and pay taxes on the earnings. While Britain sits on the sidelines, Norway’s Equinor is raising output projections for the Norwegian continental shelf due to technological improvements and rising demand.

Mr. Burnham can move forward with offshore projects in the North Sea and North Atlantic totaling between 157,000 and 162,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with combined lifetime recoverable reserves ranging from 560 million to 920 million barrels of oil equivalent. Ithaca Energy’s Cambo project and Adura’s Rosebank and Jackdaw fields are all currently awaiting approval.

Adura estimates that Rosebank and Jackdaw will generate almost $38 billion in gross value added over their lifespans, generate almost $2 billion in tax revenues before the end of the current Parliament in 2029, and support 3,500 jobs.

In addition, the Gainsborough Trough, a major sedimentary basin between Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire, holds about 16 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, equivalent to 2,750 million barrels of oil. With hydrofracturing, it could power Britain for ten years and create a quarter of a million jobs. Egdon Resources has long wanted to develop it, and no government funds would be needed.

Using these domestic resources would create well-paying jobs in northern communities that have seen manufacturing and mining decline over decades—precisely the area that Mr. Burnham wants to win from Reform.

To achieve Mr. Burnham’s desired growth, the government must remove the planning restrictions, the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, and the regulatory framework that makes hydrocarbon investment impossible. Mr. Burnham needs to say plainly that Britain’s growth matters more than the approval of green lobbying groups.

The question is whether Mr. Burnham will move Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband to the coveted position of Chancellor of the Exchequer. Miliband has been the defining force in Sir Keir’s Cabinet against developing a realistic energy policy.

Mr. Miliband now presides over the planning regime that blocks hydrocarbon development, and it is his ideology, the belief that Britain can lead the world to Net Zero by making itself dependent on foreign energy while foreigners burn their own, that keeps British electricity rates among the highest in the world.

If Mr. Miliband were promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer, he would oversee balancing the budget, or at least minimizing the deficit, and he might see energy production in an entirely different light. As current Chancellor Rachel Reeves has discovered, raising taxes and taking away senior citizens’ winter fuel credits are unpopular options (and may cost her her position).

Unfortunately, Mr. Burnham has floated the idea of nationalizing energy companies and other public infrastructure, even though money would have to be borrowed, taxed, or diverted from other priorities. Public ownership of expensive infrastructure would not achieve Mr. Burnham’s objective of lowering prices. The history of state-owned enterprises in Britain, reversed by former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, is a history of inefficiency, underinvestment, and costs ultimately borne by taxpayers. What Mr. Burnham needs is private investment in cheap domestic production.

Energy is foundational to economic growth and to the costs of manufacturing, transportation, heating, and food production and storage. When governments require shifts from cheaper to more expensive energy options (such as from fossil fuels to more expensive renewables), they raise energy costs across the entire economy. Higher energy costs result in higher prices for goods and services, squeezing household budgets and eroding real wages.

Businesses facing higher power bills invest less, hire fewer workers, and, in some cases, relocate to cheaper jurisdictions abroad. The result is an economy that grows more slowly than it should, generates fewer job opportunities than it could, and delivers lower living standards than voters expect. People pay more for electricity and gas, groceries, and gasoline. And they take it out on whoever is leading the country. In Britain, this is the Prime Minister.

For years, Britain has turned its back on its own hydrocarbon wealth in pursuit of wind and solar targets that have driven up bills, exported jobs, and left the country dependent on imported LNG priced by global markets. The paradox is glaring: Britain sits atop significant untapped gas reserves yet pays premium prices for fuel shipped from abroad.

The economics are straightforward. North Sea drilling and domestic gas development are cheaper than the combined cost of offshore wind, grid expansion, and the battery storage needed to cover the days the wind doesn’t blow. Every pound spent on domestic production is a pound that stays in Britain, is taxed in Britain, and is employed in Britain rather than enriching foreign exporters.

Burnham says he wants to be the voice of the North. Here is his chance to prove it. An energy policy built around private investment in domestic production, lower bills, and British jobs recognizes that the transition must work for working people, not just for the investment banks financing wind farms.

Reform is siphoning off votes from both Labour and the Conservatives because it speaks to the cost of living in terms voters recognize. Mr. Burnham can occupy that ground without abandoning Labour’s broader commitments, simply by insisting that British energy for British homes comes before imported energy at any price.

Partly due to the costs of its Net Zero laws, Britain has burned through five Prime Ministers and is paying some of the highest electricity prices in the world. The King of the North has a chance to change that if he chooses a different path.

Non-citizens had already been prohibited from entering the United States within 21 days of being in Congo, Uganda, and South Sudan, and now, the Trump administration has begun using federal authority to bar U.S. citizens who have been in Congo from entering the United States until they spend at least three weeks in another country, an official said on July 14.

The administration on Monday started using authorities under a transportation statute called Title 49 to place U.S. citizens who have been in Congo on a “do-not-board” list for commercial flights heading to America, an official told The Epoch Times in an email on condition of anonymity.

Americans who are in Congo or have recently been there “will only be allowed to board a commercial flight to the United States if they have spent at least 21 days outside of the” central African country, the official said.

As Zachary Steiber reports for The Epoch Times, around 24 Americans had been set to board flights to the United States after having been in Congo before the prohibition began.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, states on its website that American citizens may enter the United States even if they have recently been in Congo or nearby countries.

In a May order, the administration began requiring non-citizens who have recently been in Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan to spend 21 days outside those countries before entering the United States.

The new restrictions are based on an updated order from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that “highlights the new risk patterns” emerging in Congo for Ebola, the administration official said. That updated order has not been made public but will be in effect for 30 days, according to the CDC’s website.

The State Department will assist those people during the new 21-day waiting period, the official said. The State Department and the Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The State Department on July 11 told Americans not to travel to Congo for any reason because of the Ebola outbreak, which as of was up to 1,926 confirmed cases, 702 deaths, and 318 recoveries.

Two Americans have tested positive after working in Congo. One, working with the nonprofit Serge, was transported to a hospital in Berlin for treatment and later discharged. Another person who recently tested positive for Ebola works for Samaritan’s Purse, an aid group, the organization’s CEO Franklin Graham told The Epoch Times. That individual was also flown to a hospital in Germany for treatment.

Health workers and local volunteers carry disinfectant containers and sanitation equipment outside the General Referral Hospital in Mongbwalu, Congo, on May 21, 2026. Michel Lunanga/Getty Images

Many Americans in Congo are working with non-governmental organizations or are there on international business, the administration official said. A smaller subset of Americans is in Congo on their own, according to the Trump administration.

The CDC will provide medical assessments for Americans in Congo “and elsewhere,” the official said.

Summary:

• Iran-US fighting is sustained but in tit-for-tat pace, with new reported strikes across the Gulf.
• Trump declares FULL blockade on Iranian ports, while IRGC asserts ‘wartime control’ of Hormuz.
• Trump drops 20% transit fee plan; oil prices ease.
• Multiple tanker attacks over past day again disrupt shipping & cause casualties.
• Regional conflict expands with reported Houthi missiles on Saudi Arabia.

*  *  *

IRGC: Iran to ‘Control Entire Strait in Wartime’

Amid ongoing cross-Gulf attacks today between Iranian and US forces, the IRGC says they targeted enemy weapons and parts storages in Bahrain and Kuwait. This after the US appeared to attack some critical Iranian infrastructure on coastal islands.

The IRGC has issued a fresh statement via state media on Tuesday, saying that “as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region.” It said further, per the press release:

• US aggression will have no result other than delaying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Targeted drone ramp in Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem air base; today’s attacks in response to US attacks on Iran.

ABC is meanwhile reporting during the mid-afternoon (US time) that American airstrikes on Iran have been underway for the last couple of course. And yet still, Iran’s IRIB has said that the Islamic Republic “must control the entire Hormuz Strait in wartime”.

At 3 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes are taking place as American forces prepare to resume the…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 14, 2026

The region is being plunged back into full-fledged war, also as fighting between the Saudis and Houthis in Yemen appears to be breaking out.

Footage of a coalition Patriot surface-to-air interceptor self-destructing over Bahrain this evening during an Iranian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Mo7Sx66Rxn

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 14, 2026

Morning warnings from Tehran late Tuesday: Iran’s deputy foreign minister says if the US thinks its military attacks and blockade will force them to request negotiations, it’s making a mistake.

Trump Backs Off 20% Fee Plan For Hormuz, Asserts ‘FULL Blockade’ 

It’s the return of another TACO Tuesday as President Trump in a lengthy Truth Social missive appears to have reversed his plan to collect a 20% of cargo fee for international vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Paying 20% on cargo value for this outcome?
pic.twitter.com/qCn1YgbgnP

— Patarames (@Pataramesh) July 14, 2026

“Oil is flowing like never before,” he began (except it’s not…), before writing, “Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future.” He echoed the same in follow-up with reporters at the White House:

Trump on Strait of Hormuz fees:

I was called by different people, different countries — kings, emirs, and all of the people that we all know.

They said we’d love to do it a different way. We’d love to invest in the United States — billions and billions of dollars. And continue… pic.twitter.com/MHFmQfhxVy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 14, 2026

So Gulf allies, and likely officials within his own cabinet, have talked Trump out of the 20% collection scheme idea, which would have likely in the end just shifted leverage back over to Iran, given its own much cheaper passage protocol scheme.

US OIL PARES GAINS, WTI TRADES NEAR $78/BBL

Oil prices decline on the stated reversal in plans:

…amid emerging reports of fresh Iranian attacks on Kuwait:

Smoke columns can be seen in Kuwait near the Iraqi border. https://t.co/FyMw2W4qBD pic.twitter.com/hx2lR04kN4

— Tabz (@TabzLIVE) July 14, 2026

The battle for Hormuz has ramped up after the United States has undertaken three consecutive nights of major bombing raids against Iranian targets.

All the while President Trump is said to be “very serious” about his plan to impose a 20% toll on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a Semafor report says, citing a White House official who says the president has desired such a plan for months. Both warring sides are insisting that it is their side alone which will be ‘guardian’ over the strait.

Iran FM Trolls Trump Toll Scheme

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi took some jabs at the proposed US plan soon after Trump unveiled it on Truth Social.

“POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service,” Araghchi wrote on X. “20% is of course too much. We will be fair,” he added.

Below: ongoing reports that the Houthis are entering the war after Monday missile attacks on the kingdom:

Media: Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia is out of service after being completely destroyed by Houthi shelling. pic.twitter.com/uYp1AsWCx0

— Rojava Network (@RojavaNetwork) July 13, 2026

The same day, a clip of Secretary of State Marco Rubio from late June insisting that “no country” can extract tolls went viral. “That’s the law. It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway,” Rubio said.

“That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world and that’s the way we’ll expect it’ll be here.” He added: “I think all the countries in this region would agree.”

Meanwhile Iranian sources continue to warn the West, also with dramatic images of tankers exploding:

This ship was given clearance to pass the strait of Hormuz by The U.S. without even coordinating with the IRGC.

It is now in the bottom of the sea after catching fire.

For a safe passage through the strait, only The IRGC can give you clearance. pic.twitter.com/V4N3Aj5390

— Daily Iran News (@DailyIranNews) July 14, 2026

Gulf Air Defenses Active Night & Morning

German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd says also agrees that charging fees for what is in reality international waters and thus under the control of no single nation “would be fundamentally wrong”.

Even amid a relentless bombing campaign, Iranian forces have not shown signs of backing off their enforcement of their navigation protocol.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has on Tuesday newly “targeted and disabled” two supertankers for switching off navigation systems which involved “ignoring warnings and endangering navigation,” according to Tasnim.

Al Jazeera reports early Tuesday, “It’s been an active night and morning for air defense systems in several countries in this region because of missiles and projectiles fired from Iran.”

“This has affected the ship traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we saw the lowest number of ships passing in five weeks,” it continues, adding: “There were only six ships. The day before that, there were 14.”

Multiple Tankers Attacked Over Past Day, Casualties

At least three tankers have been struck overnight into Tuesday, with among them:

The tanker Stolt Magnesium has caught ⁠fire after the “explosion of an unidentified external device” as it was ⁠sailing in the Arabian Sea off Oman, its ⁠manager, Stolt Tankers, says.

The incident occurred at 12:40am (20:40 GMT on Monday) and caused a fire in the ‌vessel’s engine room, the company said in a statement.

The UAE and Gulf allies have strongly condemned the ‘brazen’ attacks on international shipping.

There are growing deaths among seafarers in what’s obviously the world’s most dangerous and volatile energy transit water way. India has formally summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador after an Indian sailor was killed.

According to the UAE defense ministry, the casualty occurred when two Iranian cruise missiles targeted two UAE vessels in the crucial shipping lane, leaving one Indian national dead and eight others wounded.

Chaos erupts in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces struck three commercial vessels overnight, including two tankers hit by cruise missiles, as a U.S. blockade is set to take effect. pic.twitter.com/yJWuzthTLV

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 14, 2026

More latest developments

via Newsquawk…

• US President Trump reiterated that Iran has no air force, no navy and no military, while he said they will hit Iran very hard on Monday night and on Tuesday. Trump said they had a deal yesterday and that Iran breaks deals, as well as commented that the MoU was built to test Iran and that Iran didn’t honour it. Trump also stated that they will hit ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ pretty soon and have their eyes on the site all the time, which is a good potential target
• US Central Command announced that it conducted and completed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with US strikes reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, while explosions were also reported in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Kish Island. More recently, there have been reports of explosions have been heard near Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Choghadak.
• Details of US President Trump’s proposed Strait of Hormuz toll plan are still being finalised, according to Semafor, saying Trump is ‘very serious about the tolls.
• Iran’s armed forces have begun targeting US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with cruise missiles, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iranian Army Spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not be open with US aggressions and war, SNN reported.
• IRGC said it targeted weapons warehouses, satellite communications centres, and US forces’ housing building at Bahrain’s Juffair base. Iran’s army also targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, as well as targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles, while it was separately reported that a US military base in Jordan was hit by a missile attack and that a missile attack hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition group site east of Iraq’s Erbil.
• UKMTO received a report that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile 40NM northeast of Qalhat, Oman. UKMTO reports of an incident 13NM southeast of Lima, Oman, the tanker was reportedly hit by a missile transiting outbound on the southern route
• The UAE Defence Ministry reported that two national tankers were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern Strait of Hormuz, with the incident occurring in Omani territorial waters, although the fires on both tankers were brought under control, and it reserved the right to respond to the escalation.
• ADNOC confirmed tankers “Al Bahyah” and “Mombasa B” were hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister said complex talks are under way to make a long-term arrangement to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

The European Union imported a record 9.97 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG)  worth €5.96 billion (~$6.82 billion) from Russia’s Yamal LNG facility in the first half of 2026, marking a 16% increase compared to the same period in 2025 as they front-loaded Russian energy supplies ahead of impending phase-out bans. 

Kpler data shows that European buyers absorbed over 97% of the Siberian facility’s total output during the first half of the year, despite years-long efforts to overcome dependency on Russian energy.

Overall EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 11% Y/Y during the period, while imports of Russian pipeline gas increased 7%Y/Y, according to the data.

Supply bottlenecks in the Middle East, including blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatari infrastructure, forced European buyers to lean heavily on readily available Arctic gas.

The EU’s ban on short-term Russian LNG imports went into effect on April 25, 2026, under the REPowerEU Gas Regulation.

However, exemptions built into the regulation have allowed European buyers to maintain or even accelerate their intake of Russian gas before a complete blanket ban takes effect on January 1, 2027.

While LNG faces tighter initial phase-outs, pipeline imports from Russia under short-term legacy contracts were given until June 17, 2026 while long-term pipeline gas remains legally permitted until September 30, 2027.

France, Belgium, and Spain are the largest buyers of LNG from the Yamal facility, while Hungary is the largest buyer of pipeline gas shipments delivered via the TurkStream pipeline.

Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia continue to receive Russian crude via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline as they hold official temporary exemptions from the EU’s embargo on Russian seaborne oil.

A Russian airstrike damaged the pipeline in Ukraine, entirely halting oil flows to both nations for nearly three months.

Both were forced to rely on emergency reserves and alternative routes such as Croatia’s Adria pipeline during the disruption.

In response, Hungary and Slovakia have agreed to construct a new 127 km pipeline exclusively to transport refined oil products between their respective major refineries.

Why do some countries have noticeably more men than women, while others have the opposite pattern?

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins, shows which countries have male- or female-majority populations using World Population Review data on the number of males per 100 females.

While sex ratios at birth differ only slightly, demographic forces can produce striking imbalances over time.

Countries Where There Are More Men

Of the 233 countries and territories in the dataset, men outnumber women in just 33%.

Despite the smaller number of male-majority countries, there are roughly 42 million more men than women worldwide.

There are two main reasons for this.

• First, the Gulf states are the clearest outliers. Countries such as Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait rely heavily on temporary migrant workers employed in construction, energy, and infrastructure, industries dominated by men. Because many of these workers arrive without their families, national gender balances become unusually skewed.

• Second, three of the world’s most populous countries, China, India, and the United States, all have more men than women. Although their ratios are less extreme, their large populations magnify the difference.

In India alone, a ratio of 106.3 men per 100 women translates into a male surplus of more than 40 million.

Countries Where There Are More Women

The largest concentration of female-majority countries is found across Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Former Soviet states account for seven of the 12 countries and territories with the lowest ratios of men to women.

Russia offers one of the region’s most prominent examples. Higher male mortality, shorter male life expectancy, historical wartime losses, and alcohol-related deaths all contribute to its ratio of 86.4 men per 100 women.

Why Sex Ratios Change Over Time

Sex ratios at birth naturally favor boys by a small margin, but populations rarely maintain that balance. Migration, life expectancy, war, public health, and economic opportunity can all reshape a country’s demographic profile over decades.

As these forces evolve, the map represents a snapshot rather than a permanent reality. Countries experiencing rapid immigration, population aging, conflict, or major improvements in healthcare may see their gender balance shift substantially from one generation to the next.

Via Remix News,

Influencer and model Jessica Goicoechea has posted a video on her social media channels in which she openly criticizes the insecurity she believes plagues Barcelona and details the personal measures she has taken to protect herself. In the clip, Goicoechea displays several security items she recently bought in Andorra, including 4 bottles of pepper sprays and a taser gun, which she describes as her “new essentials.”

The video ends with a direct message: “Now, I can go calmly through Barcelona.”

??? JUST IN: Spanish model Jessica Goicoechea shows off her 4 bottles of pepper spray and a Taser gun while speaking out against immigration.

“Now, I can go calmly through Barcelona,” she said.

Following the video’s viral spread, Goicoechea wrote a statement explaining that… pic.twitter.com/ATZYvfkOaX

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 13, 2026

The publication quickly sparked intense debate across social platforms. While some users criticized her for publicly showcasing self-defense weapons, many others – particularly women – expressed support and inquired about where similar products could be purchased. In response, Goicoechea stated that she is receiving “infinite messages” from women seeking ways to protect themselves. She defended her actions by saying that, given the current situation, she believes “if you don’t protect yourself, no one will.”

Following the video’s viral spread, Goicoechea followed up with a written statement. She explained that she had never wanted to enter debates about safety or immigration but felt compelled to speak out because conditions have deteriorated.

“I’m never going to shut up again,” she declared. The model described living in fear while walking the streets of Barcelona and highlighted what she called a daily increase in stabbings and shootings that she becomes aware of almost constantly.

In the same statement, Goicoechea emphasized that her concerns are not aimed at immigration in general but specifically at individuals who commit crimes. She pointed to recidivism, impunity, and insufficient controls on people with serious criminal records as the core issues.

“The problem is not where someone comes from, but how they behave,” she maintained.

Addressing comments under her video, Goicoechea responded to one follower who linked Barcelona’s rising crime to immigration by saying she “100% agrees.”

?? “They started hitting me in the stomach and in the face.”

A Polish model, attacked by a group of migrants in Milan, spoke to Polish media about her experience.

The attack only ended abruptly thanks to the heroics of an Italian man who intervened.

The report links the attack… pic.twitter.com/ln1Rds6mTN

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 9, 2026

“It all stems from political mistakes, regardless of the party’s political color, due to poor immigration planning,” read the comment she agreed with.

She later clarified that this agreement applied only to those who engage in criminal activity. She argued that “if you come to steal or kill, I prefer you be deported.”

Goicoechea reiterated that her goal is to call for improved street safety and a firmer response to crime. “I believe that demanding safe streets and firm laws against those who come to commit crimes is essential and common sense,” she concluded in the statement shared on her profiles.

????Poland is much safer than the US, says Polish-American supermodel Joanna Krupa.

She directly refers to the murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska, who was killed by a career criminal with 14 convictions.

“I certainly feel more secure in Poland than in the States.”… pic.twitter.com/eCGIieS5nG

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 23, 2025

Her comments arrive amid a series of violent incidents recorded across Catalonia in recent weeks, including approximately thirty firearms-related events, many concentrated in the Barcelona metropolitan area. These have been accompanied by frequent robberies and assaults that continue to affect both local residents and tourists, often generating significant public attention.

Other European models have delivered similar messages about crime concerns in the past, including Polish-American supermodel Joanna Krupa.

Read more here…

Authored by Alastair Crooke

When the US Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, last Tuesday night – rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route – Trump may have imagined (or been told) that with the massive funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under way, that Iran would not react as the US Navy attempted to force open an American corridor. Trump however, misread the Iranian jibe – Hormuz is its “atomic weapon.” Iran will not relinquish it.

Trump insists – in clear contradiction to the terms set out in paragraph five of the MoU – that Iran has no right to interfere with any ship trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran nonetheless is acting within the terms of the agreed de-escalation framework, and has warned repeatedly that it would strike any vessel circumventing the Iranian control mechanism.

Iran responded directly to Trump’s challenge to Iranian control of the Strait by striking two vessels with missiles and a third with an armed drone. A forth Qatari-owned tanker, laden with liquefied natural gas, was set ablaze, forcing its crew to abandon the stricken vessel.

These Iranian ripostes provoked Trump to order American air strikes against Iranian targets; to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports; and to revoke the MoU framework he had signed with what he called the “Iranian scum” – thus ending the ceasefire. “We hit them hard last night,” Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara. “We will probably hit them hard again tonight.”

Trump did hit Iran again Wednesday night – even though Iran had not attacked another vessel seeking to by-pass the Iranian corridor. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Muwaffaq Al-Salti airbase in Jordan.

Vice-President Vance is saying to Iran, “If you try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will respond. It’s that simple” – i.e. Iran either keeps the Strait fully open to all, or the US will keep hitting it, as it did on Tuesday night.

Iran insists that it is the US that has violated the MoU and (via the spokesman for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee) warns that further attacks by the US on Iran will be met by a comprehensive all-out surprise offensive by Iran – and potentially by other options too, such as an Iranian withdrawal from the NPT, changing the country’s nuclear doctrine, and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Vice-President Vance is saying if Iran restricts Hormuz (i.e. it stays open to friendly states’ vessels) the US will escalate. And Iran is responding to this threat by warning that it will escalate militarily – two strikes for every one American strike – and that they may also turn to new doctrines of warfare.

Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home. He did, however, directly put himself in this situation by trying to “act cute” during the Khamenei funeral pre-occupations in order to try to gain a “quick win.”

How long will this escalatory episode last? Certainly, it will not lead to the opening of the Strait; nor bring a return of the status quo ante that preceded the war. As long as Iran maintains its ability to exert control over Hormuz, there is no basis to assume that the situation will return to what it was.

On the contrary, and more likely, the crisis will accelerate the onset of looming global economic crisis that could last until the economic pain becomes acute, as the drawdown on sour crude continues – and as the effects on the real economy in the West become visible.

With shortages of munitions and the drawdown on air assets from the Middle East already beginning, Trump probably lacks the wherewithal to go full “Iran War 3.0.”

The timeline to this new bout of low-intensity tit-for-tat therefore, is likely dictated by refinery inventories in the US; but also by the extent of the “hurt” being experienced by Trump back home in the context of his fading political prospects, but also by his dislike for any personal humiliation.

Where did this all go wrong? Possibly the crux of it derives from the moment that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Sayyed Mojtaba, issued his statement that he had held a different view on the MoU to that of the negotiating team, but had agreed to proceed with it after receiving an assurance from the Iranian President that he would ensure and take into account Iran’s overarching principles in respect to relations with the US.

The Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei’s statement put on notice both the US – and the Iranian negotiators – that Iran’s approval of the MoU was no open mandate, but rather closely tied to the 10 principles originally enunciated by the new Supreme Leader.

At some point, the Iranian leadership seemingly came to the conclusion that Iran was being played by the US; that the MoU was a deception –

…and that the entirety of events since the announcement of the MoU reflected a US strategy based on the view that in the previous round of the war against Iran – [that the US and Israel] failed to achieve their objectives – necessitating a halt to the confrontation, albeit temporarily, in order to regroup and prepare “more thoroughly” for a new round when the right conditions arise.

This led to the Iranian reassessment that the Hormuz and Lebanon components constituted the vital leverage to engage in a new war as the West ramps up pressure as a holding strategy – whilst the US and Israel prepare for the next round of war.

The interim US strategy is no change to US-Israeli objectives, but rather an adjustment to their operational mechanisms to provide for certain compromises that Washington considers necessary (i.e. closer working with Turkey and via Erdogan to engage Syria’s Jolani) to reshuffle the Lebanon deck, and then to “assess how the cards lie,” as Vance outlined.

It is not certain that this new US policy will work. The world is changing rapidly. Their expected triumph of Israel over the Middle East has resulted in failure. Trump’s MoU ploy to open Hormuz likely will fail, too.

The connected war on Russia and the siege of China are faltering too – and Israel’s (until now unassailable) hold over the US is in question too. A senior US democrat, Rahm Emanuel, and potential 2028 US Democratic presidential candidate, spoke in Israel yesterday; he warned in no uncertain terms that Israel “has lost the world’s support, become a ‘regional pariah,’ [and that its] alliance with the US is ‘at a crossroads’.”

And finally, a “black swan” now can be observed swimming in increasingly sunlit waters – Eric Katz writing in Notus writes that, “a draft report inside the US Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the US economy when it burst in the early 2000s.”

Treasury analysts wrote –

Career Treasury analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the US economy than their dotcom predecessors and pose significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change, productivity goals are missed or various choke points stymie growth.

A downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem.

A market downturn in the US – exacerbated by an energy crisis – could spell disaster for Trump’s midterm hopes.