How Hakeem Jeffries Is In Big Trouble Politically After The Primaries
Tuesday night in New York City was no routine Democratic primary. Instead, it turned into a referendum on the Democratic Party itself, and the party lost.
Three socialist-backed candidates, backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, won their races. The Democratic establishment got slaughtered, and the man left holding the wreckage is House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
Every candidate Jeffries backed went down. That alone would be a bad night. What made it worse was the scene at the victory party for socialist-backed winner Claire Valdez, where the crowd erupted in boos when Jeffries’s image appeared on screen, then broke into a chant: “You’re next,” a clear sign that his leadership position won’t protect him from being a target of the Democratic Socialists of America Party.
The Republican National Congressional Committee read the room and sent Jeffries flowers and a condolence card. “Three losses in one night is tough,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said. “We wanted so-called ‘Leader’ Jeffries to know our thoughts are with him, his candidates, and whatever remains of his influence in the Democrat Party.” When the opposition party is sending you sympathy arrangements, you’ve had a historically bad evening.
NEW: The @NRCC has delivered flowers and a condolences card to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) DC office after the House candidates he endorsed lost to Mamdani-backed socialists in NY last night. NRCC statement to @FoxNews: “Three losses in one night is tough. We… pic.twitter.com/tBhVrRZYzH
The casualties weren’t minor figures. Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), a long-term incumbent who chaired the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, lost his seat. So did Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), who built his national profile as lead counsel for House Democrats during Donald Trump’s first impeachment. Goldman is no moderate, and was arguably a hero of the left for years, yet voters in his own district just showed him the door because Mamdani wanted someone else.
What Tuesday revealed is something the Democratic establishment has been reluctant to admit: its own primary voters have turned against it. These aren’t Republicans crossing over to cause chaos. These are Democrat voters who want to torch the house from the inside, and are using the Democratic Party infrastructure to do it.
Former DNC chairman Jaime Harrison saw it clearly enough to say something about it. “I say this with no ill will or animosity: if you hate the Democratic Party, then please don’t run for our nomination,” Harrison wrote on X Tuesday night. “Don’t use our resources. Don’t rely on our volunteers. Don’t use our infrastructure. Don’t ask Democrats to invest their time, money, and energy in your campaign. Focus on building the party you actually support. Political parties aren’t perfect, but they’re built by millions of people who knock doors, make calls, organize meetings, and fight for the values they believe in. If you don’t believe in the party, then don’t ask its members to carry you across the finish line.”
I say this with no ill will or animosity: if you hate the Democratic Party, then please don’t run for our nomination. Don’t use our resources. Don’t rely on our volunteers. Don’t use our infrastructure. Don’t ask Democrats to invest their time, money, and energy in your campaign. Focus on building the party you actually support. Political parties aren’t perfect, but they’re built by millions of people who knock doors, make calls, organize meetings, and fight for the values they believe in. If you don’t believe in the party, then don’t ask its members to carry you across the finish line.
Harrison is right about what’s happening, even if his party built the conditions that made it inevitable. The Democratic Socialists of America have figured out a remarkably efficient strategy of running as insurgent candidates in Democratic Party primaries. They’re parasites running on a host they intend to replace. And right now, they’ve got Jeffries in their crosshairs.
Jeffries survived Tuesday’s primaries because nobody ran against him. But the DSA has now demonstrated it can knock off a caucus chairman and a nationally known impeachment lawyer in a single night. An emboldened socialist movement likely won’t let Jeffries coast through the next cycle without a primary challenge. The “You’re next” chant wasn’t an empty slogan, but a promise.
The broader implications extend well past New York. Socialist candidates winning primaries in deep blue districts may feel like a local story, but the pull it exerts on the national party is real. Every time the Democrats lurch further left to appease their activist base, they surrender more ground with the centrist voters they need to appeal to nationally to win elections. The American electorate outside deep blue cities like New York City is not particularly receptive to socialism, and Republicans will spend the next two years making sure voters in swing districts understand exactly what the Democratic Party now stands for.
Jeffries entered Tuesday as the leader of House Democrats and the presumptive future Speaker. He exited it as a man his own base wants to bury. That’s a hard thing to recover from, and the people who want him gone are just getting started.
OpenAI Plans Delaying IPO Until 2027, Blames SpaceX
One month ago, during the height of the tokenmaxxing craze – when companies were spending ridiculous amounts of money, in many cases without knowing they were even doing so, just to test out the latest agentic craze – first OpenAI and then Anthropic rushed to announce they will follow in the footsteps of the SpaceX IPO, and were planning (or rather hoping) to go public in the next quarter or two. To validate its euphoric IPO dreams, Anthropic even trotted out a lafughable ARR of $47 billion, a number which besides being laughably incoherent and a non-GAAP mish-mash of adjustments and double counting, also took advantage of said tokenmaxxing frenzy.
Then following a furious blowback against said tokenmaxxing which has seen a collapse in agentic spending and an aggressive shift to much cheaper Chinese models, we said two weeks ago that we are eagerly awaiting Anthropic’s new ARR, one which reflects the revulsion to Claude’s stratospheric token costs.
Meanwhile, Anthropic quietly annualized the one-time bumper revenue from Feb-May on the agentic splurge when nobody had any idea what they were paying, to come up with the ludicrous $47BN ARR.
Let’s see what ARR is next month after clients finally checked their token bills.
And while we wait, Anthropic’s biggest competitor, OpenAI – which unlike its peer has been far less vocal about its latest annualized revenue numbers – appears to have realized that going public at a time when agentic spending is suddenly in freefall (Goldman’s best “efforts” to predict 120 quadrillion monthly tokens by 2030 notwithstanding) may not be the best idea, and according to the NYT is now leaning toward punting its IPO until next year in hopes that the AI bubble will be even bigger next year.
OpenIA’s odds of a 2026 IPO promptly tumbled on Polymarket, and were last below 30% from over 50% before the report.
So what is going on, and how did OpenAI – which earlier this month said it had filed confidential paperwork with securities regulators to kick off the process for going public, but it did not commit publicly to any time window – frame the delay so it doesn’t sounds like it rushed out its plans to IPO on a one-time bumper revenue burst, only to reverse them as the overpaid agentic euphoria has fizzled?
Why blame Elon of course.
The NYT reports that when the ChatGPT maker hired bankers and lawyers with an eye toward IPOing as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year, Sam Altman pushed those advisers to find a way for the start-up to be valued at $1 trillion, up from the company’s last private valuation of $730 billion.
OpenAI’s advisers presented company executives with the option of waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the targeted valuation for a quicker IPO, which would be a disaster as the IPO would effectively admit that OpenAI can’t keep up with the growth rate of Anthropic which a month ago raised $65 billion in a $965 billion private funding round. Altman responded that any change to the trillion-dollar valuation was a nonstarter.
But, the report goes on, “a cascade of recent developments has caused OpenAI’s executives to shift away from their most aggressive aspirations” and the primary scapegoat is Elon Musk’s, and specifically the performance of SpaceX after its I.P.O. this month. “It was the largest ever, raising more than $85 billion and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion on its debut. Since then, SpaceX’s stock has been on a downward slide, as shares slumped to $153 at the end of the trading day on Thursday after reaching a high of $202 last week.”
Realizing it would look very stupid if it just blamed the very same company that prompted it to rush its IPO in the first place, the NYT also blamed global markets which “have also been choppy in recent weeks, with tech stocks dragging down indexes as investors question whether AI companies will live up to their sky-high promises.”
Nowhere in this above is there a mention of the only thing that actually does matter to investors: the financials, and one can only imagine what is going on there after the early Q2 “tokenmaxxing” agentic burst which has now fizzled. OpenAI said this year that it was generating $2 billion in revenue each month but we are patiently waiting for an update now that the latest series of open Chinese models offer 95% of the US frontier performance for 10% of the price (as discussed in “Answering The “Trillion Dollar Question”: Are China’s AI Models A Better Value Than US Models“).
It’s not just China: OpenAI faces acute pressures at home too. Anthropic, which offers a Claude Code tool for creating sophisticated software code, has been far more successful in selling its service to enterprises (at least until the tokenmaxxing fiasco). At the same time, Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship consumer AI product, has become popular with users.
The NYT however is correct that OpenAI’s postponing its IPO plans – for whatever reason – will disappoint Wall Street and Silicon Valley, especially not if but when its main rival Anthropic, which has been in very hot water with the Trump admin for months, does the same.
There’s more.
Besides creating SpaceX strawmen, OpenAI is also grappling with other issues. Late last year, CFO Sarah Friar said it was not pursuing an I.P.O. at the time and was focusing on shoring up its finances. However, since then the company has done just the opposite as it has continued to pour money into data centers and computing power, with no indications of slowing down.
Some OpenAI executives appeared to have changed their minds about an IPO just a few months after Friar said the company was not looking to go public. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company planned to go public by the end of 2026. That surprised some employees because they thought the company was not on a strong enough financial footing.
The company has also been spending like a drunken sailor on marketing and recruiting high-profile engineering talent from companies like Meta and Google. Realizing that it is losing market share to both Anthropic and Chinese open-sourced models, ChatGPT is also searching for other lines of revenue, including dabbling with placing ads inside ChatGPT and striking e-commerce deals with companies like Shopify and Stripe that would allow people to buy things from online stores directly inside ChatGPT.
The biggest problem facing OpenAI, however, is that growth has plateaued: after years of surging downloads of ChatGPT’s consumer app, those numbers have slowed and continue to hover around 900 million users, surprising investors who believed the company would easily hit one billion.
And the wildcard is now that the US government is actively throttling the latest frontier models over concerns they may hack sensitive government agencies, today the Information reported that OpenAI is releasing its latest GPT-5.6 model only as a limited preview to a small group of partners. The reason, according to Sam Altman: the U.S. government asked it to. Altman reportedly told staff that the government will be “approving access customer by customer” during the preview period, with a broader release potentially following a couple of weeks later. This comes after Anthropic took a similar path with Mythos, and after the White House forced Anthropic to withdraw Fable and Mythos over national security concerns.
And now that the “uncorruptible” Trump admin is actively involved in picking winners and losers in the frontier model race, both OpenAI and Anthropic will watch their ARR collapse as most enterprise clients realize they will have better productivity gains by going with the latest Chinese models which, paradoxcially, are now easier to access in the US than domestic made versions.
Qualcomm To Design China-Specific Data Center Chip In Compliance With US Export Curbs
Qualcomm unveiled its data center chip lineup on Wednesday, becoming the latest chipmaker to enter the AI processor race in an attempt to challenge market leader Nvidia. CEO Cristiano Amon told Nikkei Asia the company is eyeing the China market for its data center products, including designing chips specifically for Chinese customers that are in compliance with U.S. export controls.
The mobile chip giant is revamping the design of data center processors, which is traditionally powered by graphic processing units (GPUs) and high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips.
Amon teased Dragonfly – a dedicated brand for AI data center solutions designed to break Nvidia’s grip on AI infrastructure – at the Computex trade show in Taipei early this month.
The company unveiled more details about Dragonfly at its investor day in New York on Wednesday. Dragonfly encompasses four product lines: AI accelerators, data center CPUs, custom silicons and connectivity chips. Amon said Qualcomm is working to bring all four data center product lines to China, including customized AI accelerators for the Chinese market that will comply with US export controls limiting advanced AI chips sales above certain threshold.
“We have a big business in China, and I think as we started to diversify the company, our partnership with China and our China customers also expanded,” said Amon, adding the relationship with Chinese smartphone makers and auto companies is also going to be “a strength that we’re going to bring on the data center side. ” However, “there are very clear guidelines about how you can ship products to China, and we have versions of all of our products that comply with those guidelines, ” he said. “We are engaged in conversations and are positively optimistic about the reaction we’re getting.”
Qualcomm’s data center processor features a design that differs from AI racks deployed in data centers. Dubbed high bandwidth compute (HBC), Qualcomm said the near-memory compute design will make its data center chips deliver six times the bandwidth per watt versus HBM-based solutions.
The data center compute market is dominated by AI racks powered by Nvidia’s GPUs and HBM chips that are produced by South Korean companies SK Hynix and Samsung. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are also working on near-memory and on-memory compute as memory capacity becomes the latest AI deployment bottleneck.
Amon said the HBC will be different from the processing-in-memory (PIM) architecture other memory chipmakers are developing.
“This is a very unique technology that allows you to develop 3D-stacking of the DRAM alongside logic that is built for the accelerator,” he said, adding that HBC significantly increases available memory, reduces bandwidth bottleneck and improves compute efficiency.
As the global memory chip crunch continues, Amon said they have secured enough memory for its data center products in fiscal year 2027 and the new HBC technology will also help ease the memory chip shortage.
“This technology is starting to get interest, we now have memory vendors, small and large ones, now engaging with Qualcomm and want to partner with Qualcomm on HBC,” the CEO said.
In addition to better compute performance, Qualcomm said the HBC architecture also uses less energy and costs less to own. In video messages, Microsoft and Meta CEOs said the two companies’ data centers will be early adopters of Qualcomm’s data center chips including HBC and CPUs.
Qualcomm said the first HBC chip will ship with its AI250 data center rack in fiscal year 2027. The company told investors Wednesday the new data center products are expected to bring in $300 million in revenue in the current fiscal year, and $5 billion in fiscal year 2027, which starts in October. Qualcomm estimates the total addressable market for data center chips will be more than $1 trillion by 2029 and the company will take a more-than-5% share of that market.
At the Wednesday keynote, Amon said it is “never too late” for Qualcomm to enter the data center chip business because “this is a market that moves very, very fast. So, if you have technology leadership, there’s always room for you.”
In addition to AI accelerators powered by the new HBC design, Qualcomm also unveiled a CPU designed for data centers and AI inference, announcing the company has won “two major hyperscaler deals” for custom-designed data center chips that will bring in “meaningful revenue” by the end of the year.
Amon also touted a close partnership with the contract chipmaking giant TSMC that will give it a leg up in the data center chip race.
“As soon as TSMC finishes the mask, we go to production, and we go to production at scale. That’s the maturity of our manufacturing capabilities,” said Amon.
It is yet to be seen if Qualcomm can convince investors and customers alike to be a competitive alternative to Nvidia products.
“Current data center revenues remain de minimis and reliant on Qualcomm proving they are able to bring strong CPU [and] NPU performance from consumer devices to more complex data center workloads,” Vivek Arya, analyst at Bank of America, said in a note Tuesday, adding that Qualcomm is entering a “fast-growing but hyper competitive AI market full of large incumbents.”
NPU refers to neural processing units, hardware designed to perform AI computing tasks.
Ahead of an investor meeting Wednesday, Qualcomm announced the acquisition of chip software startup Modular Inc. in an all-stock deal valued at nearly $4 billion that will help Qualcomm compete with Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem.
In addition to its advanced AI processors, Nvidia’s lead in the data center market is solidified by the CUDA computing platform that makes its AI chips more efficient and easier to program.
On Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the annual shareholders meeting that while his company’s systems “may not be the cheapest to produce, to purchase, but Nvidia generates the lowest cost tokens, the highest token throughput and the most revenues. “
Bloomberg reported last month that Qualcomm had struck a deal with ByteDance to supply the Chinese tech giant with custom AI data center chips. The deal is structured to fall within existing U.S. export control thresholds, a design choice that signals Qualcomm’s intent to capture Chinese AI demand without irritating the White House.
The U.S. chip giant will likely face similar regulatory scrutiny as Nvidia and others over China exports.
The Trump administration unveiled new guidelines for the export of powerful AI chips to Chinese entities outside of China in June. The U.S. Department of Commerce said it will implement license requirements for Chinese companies headquartered in China, even if they are physically located outside the country.
China accounted for 46% of Qualcomm’s revenue in 2025, mostly from smartphone chips. Qualcomm’s CEO was part of a high-profile business delegation that accompanied Trump when he visited President Xi Jinping in China this May. Amon said Wednesday the company’s presence at the leaders summit is an example of what a “win-win” relationship between the two countries looks like.
Amon said the epicenter of AI agent development is in China, with new agentic use cases emerging across platforms from smartphones and glasses to cars.
“Actually, when I talk about China, I am in a situation right now that I don’t know who the mobile customers are anymore, because there are OEMs, but every single AI foundational model company building agents also are customers,” he said.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm announced a deal with Saudi Arabian AI company Humain, which has committed to deploying 200 megawatts of Qualcomm accelerator racks, beginning this year.
The world’s leading mobile chip developer, Qualcomm, has long been a leader in premium chips for flagship smartphones such as Samsung Electronics and Xiaomi, and has gradually expanded into the PC market. It announced its first chip for budget PCs at Computex in Taipei earlier this month.
Qualcomm still generates most of its revenue from mobile chips. For the latest quarter, its handset chip business reported a 13% year-on-year revenue drop to $6 billion, which accounted for 57% of its revenue in the January to March quarter. Its Internet of Things business, which includes PC chips, recorded a 9% sales jump on the year to $1.7 billion. By fiscal year 2029, however, the company expects handsets to account for only a third of revenue with data center products on par with smartphone chips.
Adani Group, the conglomerate of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, could become India’s biggest private nuclear power capacity developer within a decade, targeting 10 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, as India opened its civil nuclear power sector to private investment.
“Our entry into nuclear energy through Adani Atomic Energy is another confident step towards securing India’s long-term energy future,” Gautam Adani said at the annual general meeting of Adani Group on Wednesday.
“With land identified and a 10 GW targeted capacity by 2035, we are positioning ourselves early to serve the growing national demand for clean, round-the-clock power,” the billionaire said.
A panel set up by India’s power ministry has said in a report that India’s goal to boost its installed nuclear power capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2047, up from just 8.8 GW now, would require as much as 19.28 trillion Indian rupees, or $204 billion at current exchange rates, of cumulative capital.
The Indian government has said that its Nuclear Energy Mission targets 100 GW capacity by 2047 “through deployment of existing and emerging advanced nuclear technologies, both indigenous & with foreign cooperation.”
Adani Group is reportedly in talks with the state government of India’s northern Uttar Pradesh state on a public-private partnership to build small modular reactors (SMRs) as India opens its nuclear energy sector to private investment.
Adani is in discussions with Uttar Pradesh officials to build eight SMRs with capacity of 200 megawatts (MW) each at yet-to-be-identified sites in the state, anonymous sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg at the end of 2025.
If the group meets its target to have 10 GW in nuclear capacity by 2035, it would become India’s third-largest operator of nuclear power capacity behind state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and state coal giant NTPC Limited. NPCIL currently operates all of India’s 8 GW of nuclear power capacity.
Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries of another billionaire, Mukesh Ambani, is also considering investments in India’s nuclear power sector after the opening to private capital.
Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin’s Mail-In Voting Restrictions, National Voter Database For Midterms
A federal judge in Boston has blocked key parts of President Donald Trump’s March executive order that sought to impose new limits on mail-in voting and create a nationwide list of eligible voters using federal citizenship data. The ruling, issued June 25 by Obama-appointed U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, prevents the administration from enforcing the directives for the November midterms in the two dozen Democratic-led states and jurisdictions that challenged the order.
Talwani found that no federal law authorizes the government to build the type of voter database outlined in the order or to use the threat of criminal prosecution to pressure state and local election officials into using it. The March order directed the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration to compile a national list of potentially eligible voters based on citizenship information and share it with states. It also called for new design standards for mail ballot envelopes and directed the U.S. Postal Service to create its own list of voters eligible to receive mail ballots.
The judge wrote that there was no US law that authorized the federal government to create the type of voter databases Trump had called for and to use the threat of criminal prosecution to “intimidate” state and local officials into using those lists. -Bloomberg
The decision – which came one day after Postmaster General David Steiner told lawmakers that the USPS will no longer deliver mail-in ballots in states that refuse to provide voter data – adds to the legal obstacles facing the administration’s election-related initiatives as officials race to implement changes before the midterms. Challengers argued the order represented an improper federal intrusion into state-run elections and risked disrupting preparations and disenfranchising eligible voters. The administration has maintained that the steps are needed to strengthen election integrity and address concerns about fraud.
The U.S. Postal Service has been developing a proposed rule, required under the same March executive order, that would condition delivery of mail ballots on states providing lists of eligible absentee voters to the federal government. Steiner described the measure as a way to ensure ballots reach only eligible voters. Democratic lawmakers criticized the proposal as an overreach into state election authority. The rule is undergoing public comment and faces its own legal challenges.
Trump, meanwhile, has also pushed Republican lawmakers to pass legislation containing proof-of-citizenship and other voting restrictions, including the SAVE Act. During a fiery June 24 meeting with Senate Republicans, he declined to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress advances the voting measures. The closed-door session highlighted tensions within the party, though Republican leaders emphasized the need for unity ahead of the midterms. Trump and his allies argue that stronger verification requirements are essential to maintain public confidence in elections.
The order comes one day after another Obama-appointed federal judge in Boston blocked key portions of President Donald Trump’s executive order overhauling federal election procedures, ruling that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by attempting to impose new voting requirements without congressional approval.
U.S. District Judge Denise Casper concluded that the Constitution gives primary authority over elections to the states and Congress, not the executive branch. The ruling makes permanent a preliminary injunction Casper issued last year in a lawsuit filed by Democratic attorneys general from 19 states.
Americans that are over the age of 55 control approximately 73 percent of all wealth in the United States.
Americans that are age 55 or younger control just 27 percent of all wealth in the United States.
Never before in history has there been a generational divide of this magnitude.
One of the reasons why there is such a generational divide is because housing has become so insanely unaffordable. If you purchased a home 20 or 30 years ago, it has appreciated in value a great deal and you are sitting pretty. But many young adults today look at current housing prices and wonder how they will ever be able to buy a home.
During the pandemic, we witnessed a surge of young adults moving back in with their parents.
But once the pandemic was over, things were supposed to go back to normal.
Unfortunately, that never happened.
In fact, the percentage of young adults that are living with their parents is now higher than it was at any point during the pandemic…
A record 25.2 million adults under 35 lived with their parents in 2025, according to new research from Realtor.com®. That’s nearly 1 in 3 young adults and higher than even the pandemic-era count—but the more surprising finding is just how many of them were working.
“Roughly 70% of 25- to 34-year-olds living with parents are employed,” says Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com and author of the report. “That share held steady even as the overall co-residence rate has climbed—meaning the growth is coming from working adults, not people waiting to find jobs.”
The finding challenges one of the most persistent narratives about adults living at home today: that they’re simply languishing in a tepid job market and failing to launch.
We have tens of millions of young adults that cannot form their own households.
That is a major national crisis.
A lot of those young adults would love to move out and live on their own, but home prices are simply way too high…
The report said that the median prices for new and existing homes are both over $400,000 and that existing home prices have risen 54% since 2020 and are about 5-times the median income – a level well above the ratio of 3-times that prevailed in the 1990s.
Mortgage rates are over 6%, which makes the payment on a median-priced home $3,100 in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $1,700 in early 2020. That has pushed the income needed to afford that payment to more than $120,000 – a significant increase from $66,000 in 2020.
In 1975, the median home price in the United States was under $40,000.
But now it is over $400,000.
That is how much the purchasing power of our money has declined.
The affordability of the U.S. housing market may not improve significantly over time for would-be homebuyers, with a new report suggesting that they shouldn’t wait in the hopes of affordability measures returning to their pre-2022 levels.
Sarah Wolfe, a senior economist and strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a report that while housing affordability could improve modestly over time, it is “unlikely to return to more favorable levels of the past, as the market adjusts to a higher-cost, tighter-supply environment.”
That is quite sobering.
I guess our young adults are just out of luck.
At this stage, it is being projected that the median home price in this country will hit a million dollars by 2050…
According to new projections from National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun, the national median home price is on track to hit $1 million by 2050 — just as millennials reach the traditional retirement age.
“Essentially, in about 25 years the national median home price will be a million dollars,” Yun said at a conference in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. “It may be hard to envision that, but back in 1990, the national median price was $90,000.”
Many of those that are on the outside looking in may remain in that position permanently.
Meanwhile, the middle class continues to shrink as large employers eliminate good paying jobs all over the nation.
Job cuts at U.S. factories ran near their highest levels since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Covid-19 pandemic as worries grew over global demand and rising costs, S&P Global reported Tuesday.
Though the firm’s manufacturing index ran better than expected for June, it came largely from an inventory rebuild and despite sharp job cuts that were the most since 2009 — excluding the massive labor reductions at the onset of the Covid crisis in 2020.
And our most prominent tech companies continue to mercilessly slash payrolls.
For example, it is being reported that Oracle has given the axe to 21,000 highly paid workers over the past year…
Oracle shed 21,000 jobs, almost 13% of its workforce, in the past year, as tech giants carry out sweeping layoffs as a result of AI.
The company’s total workforce stands at 141,000 full-time employees as of May 2026, it said in its annual regulatory filing on Monday. That’s down from 162,000 employees at the same time the previous year. This represents an almost 13% cut in its total workforce.
Almost every big tech company that you can name has laid off workers within the past 12 months.
Electronic Arts has undergone yet another round of layoffs, seemingly impacting its recruitment, customer support, trust and safety, and IT teams.
Kotaku has learned about these layoffs both from sources aware of the situation as well as 12 separate public postings from individuals impacted by the layoffs. The total number of impacted employees is unknown, but Kotaku has found online postings both from people formerly in several remote roles in the U.S. as well as a number of laid-off individuals from EA’s office in Hyderabad, India. Multiple individuals laid off from the Hyderabad office had been with the company for more than ten years.
Cargo Vessel Comes Under Apparent Iranian Attack Near Oman, Crude Jumps, After IRGC Warned It Controls Hormuz Strait
Summary:
Iran tightens control over Hormuz: The IRGC says ships must obtain authorization to transit the strait or face enforcement action.
Shipping disruptions emerge after increased flows: A tanker near Oman was reportedly attacked, and several vessels turned back after Iranian warnings, sending oil prices higher.
Tehran seeks billions in transit fees: Iran wants to impose Hormuz passage charges that it says could generate up to $40 billion annually.
Rubio rejects the plan: The U.S. says Gulf states offer “zero support” for Iranian tolls and warns they would undermine freedom of navigation.
Tanker Attacked Off Oman Amid US-Iran Divergence Over Terms of Hormuz Reopening, Crude Jumps
A tanker appears to have come under (likely) Iranian attack close to the coast of Oman on Thursday. It seems that Iran is seeking to impose control, and its red lines as its military issues the following message: “Coordination with the IRGC Navy for passage through the Strait of Hormuz via Channel 16 is mandatory, and violator vessels will be dealt with.”
Crude jumps, also as Bloomberg reports that already “At least three ships, including two oil supertankers, appeared to turn around while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz using a route that hugs Oman’s coastline.”
Bloomberg continues: “It wasn’t immediately clear why the vessels turned around, but two maritime intelligence companies published broadcasts that purported to be from the Iranian navy instructing ships not to cross. Not all ships have turned around and some continued along the Oman route, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.”
This comes after there’s been some optimism this week after the signing of the US-Iran MoU, as tanker traffic has clearly picked up. However, Tehran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been insistent that transit can’t happen without express permission, and as Tehran seems to impose steep tolls under its protocol.
* * *
Iran Seeking Beijing Approval for Toll Scheme
Despite Rubio’s warning while meeting with GCC allies in Bahrain, Iran is planning to move forward on charging hefty fees for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz under its protocol, which is to be enforced by the IRGC. What’s more is that it’s seeking Beijing’s approval and help.
Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted during a prior visit to Oman this week: “Everyone needs to know that management of the strait will never return to the way it was before.”
Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the Strait of Hormuz as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery it severed at the start of the war.
The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. The idea, if implemented, would bring Tehran cash flow and control that it didn’t command before the war.
The regime is looking to models around the world, including the Dardanelles, the officials said, where Turkey charges ships a tax known as the gold franc for passage to and from the Aegean Sea through the international waterway.
Rubio has just complained that such a scheme would unleash “chaos” and would spread “like a contagion” to other global shipping chokepoints. He has asserted that Washington sees this as a red line and won’t allow the precedent to be established.
On the China angle, crucially, “To get buy-in, Tehran is pitching the idea to the wider Middle East and as far afield as Beijing, according to Iranian officials. It wants its Persian Gulf neighbors to be part of the agreement and share the revenue,” sources said.
Iran clearly feels itself in control of negotiations, and so is flexing its maximal demands, as it knows that Trump came to the table to avoid serious rupture in global oil as US strategic reserves have dwindled and Americans would revolve against his little “excursion” in Iran.
Tehran senses weakness? A softening in tone from the Trump administration:
REPORTER: “You used to call them religious theocratic lunatics. Do you still believe that language applies to the leadership today?”
SEC. RUBIO: “Well, it’s not that I believe it. It’s the fact of the matter. I mean, the Iranian system is led by clerics, radical clerics. That’s… pic.twitter.com/0FIGKdMlTq
Rubio from Bahrain: ‘Zero’ Gulf Support from Gulf States for Tolls, Fees
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made some fresh Thursday remarks in Manama, Bahrain after his meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers. “We had a very productive meeting,” he acknowledged.
The US top diplomat emphasized that “zero support” from Gulf countries for tolls or fees on the Strait of Hormuz, in contradiction to Iran’s official stance (and possibly in coordination with Oman, which has provoked US wrath).
Oman has remained ambiguous on the issue in its latest statements, no doubt not wishing to not further inflame Washington sentiment against the longtime southern Arab Gulf ally.
Oman, via its state news agency, has reaffirmed that it is ready to help restore maritime security and that it backs the MoU signed between the US and Tehran, also in accord with decisions made at the high-level Vance meeting in Switzerland at the start of the week. Rubio’s main argument seemed to be the very bad precedent that a toll system extracted by Iran (and the IRGC) would set, warning that Iranian tolls on ships through Hormuz would only spread to other waterways, risking “total chaos”.
“International waterways do not belong to any nation state. This is a foundational principle in the world today, without which the world would be in total chaos,” he said at the GCC meeting. He added:
“If in fact we accepted that you can charge money to use an international waterway because it happens to be near your territorial space, well then this will spread throughout the world like a contagion.”
He stressed the the Trump administration is committed to a peace deal, but not “at any price”. He explained: “While we want a deal, we don’t want a deal at any price. We want a deal that’s good, we want a deal that’s real, we want a deal that’s verifiable, and we want a deal that’s adhered to.”
“We want to ensure… that there is no part of this deal that’s undertaken that in any way undermines the security, the stability, or the prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region,” he said.
🇺🇸 — VID: Marco Rubio today in Bahrain on Iran:
“You can call it a toll, you can call it a fee, whatever you want to call it—it’s a game of semantics.
The reality of it is that no country on earth has a right to charge for the use of international waterways.
Rubio’s Gulf tour has included the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, where he’s given assurances that any broader US-Iran peace deal would not abandon Gulf allies’ interests. Another notable statement from Rubio is his statement that a reconstruction fund for Iran was not discussed with Gulf countries. But this also remains high at the top of Tehran’s wish list.
IRGC: Noncompliant Ships ‘Will Be Dealt With’
As for the latest from Iran, the country’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned against any crossings of the Strait of Hormuz without authorization, threatening that ships not complying “will be dealt with” as it criticized a new route through the waterway established under the auspices of Gulf countries and with UN coordination.
Rubio calling Iranian leadership, ‘religious theocratic lunatic’ – while his boss is begging for a negotiated solution, these sorts of lunacy counterproductive. pic.twitter.com/8BVV2mjiVr
“The only authorized route for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the route announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the IRGC said Thursday.
So clearly despite the MoU framework still holding and producing a temporary peace, which has even seen more ships flowing through the waterway, major contradictory issues remain.
According to new video of communications on Marine VHF channel 16 (the international hailing/calling channel for ships) from @_MartinKelly_, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy (IRGC-N), also known as the ‘Sepah Navy’ has announced:
The US will not accept that Hormuz belongs to any nation state, Rubio said while meeting with Bahraini leaders in Manama. He also said that the US wants a deal that doesn’t undermine security and prosperity for itself nor its allies.
Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani welcomed Oman’s announcement of a corridor for the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as he chaired a GCC meeting during Rubio’s visit to the country.
A Lebanese military source told Al Jazeera that Israeli forces remain deployed in all the areas they recently occupied, making the statement after the Reuters news agency cited a US State Department official stating that Israel had withdrawn from parts of the area.
There were reports of a drone strike in the front-line village of Kfar Tibnit on the outskirts of the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, according to our correspondents on the ground.
Some 57 ships carrying an estimated 1,100 seafarers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since June 23 under a UN evacuation plan launched this week, data from the UN’s shipping agency showed.
Explosion In Data-Centers And Memory Costs Fueling Third Inflation Wave
We’re finally starting to see hints of relief when it comes to inflation. Prices at the pump are starting to come down, monthly core CPI momentum has slowed, used cars were down around 2% YoY, and food inflation is starting to moderate. On the other hand, there’s America’s massive explosion in artificial-intelligence infrastructure – which is beginning to push prices up on everything from electricity to smartphones.
On Thursday Apple announced a 15-25% price hike on Mac computers and iPads, after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.” An Apple spokesperson placed the blame on the “rapid expansion of AI data centers, which has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage,” causing component prices to surge.
Elon Musk agrees…
Tim Cook, who told The Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.”
The money pouring into the AI arms race is unprecedented. Analysts peg capital spending at five of the so-called hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Oracle—at $741 billion this year, according to FactSet, up nearly 75% from last year.
Where is all that money going? While much of the conversation is focused on what AI can do, the build-out itself is strikingly physical, said Columbia University economist Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. -WSJ
AI data centers require specific, sophisticated equipment to ensure cool, stable operation – as well as electric and fiber-optic cables and backup generators in order to keep them running 24-7. According to the report, Van Nieuwerburgh estimates that the AI buildout could cost somewhere in the range of $8 trillion over the next six years. As such, the demand for components shared throughout the economy (memory, for example), the effects are now trickling down to consumer electronics – like iPads. Other companies such as Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony have all raised prices on devices.
According to the Labor Department, consumer prices for computer software and accessories were up around 15% from a year earlier in May, while the Department’s measure of wholesale electronic components and accessories shot up 27% from a year earlier last month.
When it comes to electricity – the price began to rapidly increase during covid – and it’s now slingshotting even higher. Note the rate of change in the lower panel.
According to Goldman, data centers will account for nearly half of US growth in power demand through 2030 – and see consumer electricity prices rising around 6% annually in 2026 and 2027.
The Journal also notes that while tariffs and oil were one-time economic shocks, the AI shock to demand could persist for years.
That dynamic is reflected in the rally in the shares of chip stocks, which have moved sharply higher on investor expectations of sharply higher demand. Even with a sharp selloff this week, the PHLX Semiconductor Index is up about 150% over the past year.
Of course, more than just chips go into data centers. And like chips, a lot of the other things that go into building and running a data center are used widely across the economy. That could raise costs for a variety of businesses, which may then try to recoup those costs by charging consumers higher prices.
In some instances, the AI build-out could also add to labor costs. Wages for workers who are in demand from data-center construction have been picking up: Average hourly earnings for electrical and wiring-installation contractors were up 6.5% in April from a year earlier, which compared with 3.6% for all private-sector workers. -WSJ
Still, economics aren’t predicting an AI-fueled inflation surge like we saw during Covid.
On The Other Side Of This – Disinflation?
In November, now-Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wrote in a WSJ op-ed that “AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness,” arguing “productivity improvements should drive significant increases in real take-home wages. A 1-percentage-point increase in annual productivity growth would double standards of living within a single generation.”
Yet, UBS economists think that the delta between the current building frenzy and AI lowering prices will be at least a couple of years.
According to a Monday survey by the National Association for Business Economics, 81% of those polled said the AI build-out will add to inflation over the next year.
“In the first phase of any major technological revolution, you tend to have a strain on limited resources, and that tends to put upward pressure on prices,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco – president of NABE – told TheJournal.
TL;DR – the AI build-out may keep inflation broadly elevated, and at some point it may all be worth it in the form of disinflationary productivity. Then again, who’s going to buy anything when tens of millions are without jobs that are now done by AI?
Venezuelan Quake Disaster: 45,000 People Reported Missing On Independent Monitoring Platform
Summary
45,000 Reported Missing On Independent Monitoring Platform
US Phase One Of Humanitarian Response Begins
Buildings collapsed in several districts of Caracas
Venezuela declared a state of emergency after the earthquakes
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Deploys First Responders
Trump Says “U.S.A. stands ready, willing, and able to help”
USGS Says Quakes May Prompt “International Response”
USGS Fears Death Toll Ranging Between 10k – 100k
Spanish-language news outlet UHN Plus reports:
Independent monitoring platforms and missing persons search pages unofficially estimate between 39,000 and 40,000 reports of people unaccounted for following the devastating earthquake in Venezuela.
🇻🇪‼️ | Plataformas independientes de monitoreo y páginas de búsqueda de desaparecidos estiman de manera extraoficial entre 39.000 y 40.000 reportes de personas sin localizar tras el devastador terremoto en Venezuela. pic.twitter.com/zpmdaREJXl
Earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided reporters with an update on America’s efforts to help Venezuelans after two massive earthquakes rocked the Caracas metro area and likely left thousands dead.
“We’re already deploying search and rescue teams from Fairfax County, Virginia, and Los Angeles. There will be some others we’ll add. That’s their most immediate need right now, is search and rescue efforts- they have much of collapsed buildings. And so they’ll need a lot of help in terms of digging through that,” Rubio said.
He added, “We’ve already stood up our disaster response teams at the Department of State and our humanitarian efforts. It’s something we did very well in Jamaica, after that storm, and it’s something we’re really prepared to do now.”
Any U.S. government-led humanitarian response would likely include naval medical support, potentially involving hospital ships such as the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) and USNS Mercy (T-AH-19). However, there is no official update on whether either vessel is currently ready for rapid deployment.
According to USNI News, US Navy deployments in the Caribbean Sea include:
A single ship from the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is operating in the Caribbean Sea after a 10-month deployment. USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD-28) remains in the region after USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit returned in early June from deployment. The 24th MEU replaced the 22nd MEU as the “immediate crisis response force” and will be spread throughout the region instead of deploying with an Amphibious Ready Group, USNI News reported. Littoral Combat Ship USS Billings (LCS-15) is also operating in the Caribbean Sea. Billings is based at Naval Station Mayport, Fla.
Deployment Map:
Rubio’s earlier statement that U.S. search-and-rescue teams are already deploying suggests the Trump administration is entering the first phase of a broader humanitarian mission.
Given the sheer scale of the disaster, larger U.S. assets – potentially including naval medical support, airlift capacity, and logistics units – may soon be headed to the Latin American country.
Chevron said its oil operations in Venezuela remain operational as of Thursday morning and all employees are accounted for after twin quakes overnight.
“As a longtime employer and partner in Venezuela, we stand in solidarity with the country and its people during this difficult time,” the oil/gas giant said in a statement Thursday, quoted by Bloomberg.
“We remain committed to supporting our employees and the communities surrounding our facilities and ensuring the continued safe operation of our assets.”
The outlet noted:
Venezuela’s key refining hub near the quake’s epicenter in Paraguaná and the Jose export terminal in Anzoátegui are operating normally, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. There has been no impact on oil processing or loadings, the person said.
Trump Says US “Ready To Help”
The twin quakes that rocked the Caracas metro area overnight may result in a death toll ranging between 10,000 and 100,000, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates.
USGS said, “Past red alerts have required a national or international response,” adding, “Estimated economic losses are 2-20% of Venezuela’s GDP.”
Even before the quakes, Venezuela was already economically devastated under the socialist Maduro regime. The sheer magnitude of the disaster will likely prompt an international response led by Washington.
“The U.S.A. stands ready, willing, and able to help! I have instructed all agencies of our government to get ready to move quickly,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The president added, “We will be there for our new and great friends. Early reports are not good!!!”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X, “America stands with the Venezuelan people during this difficult time, and at the direction of President Trump, the State Department is immediately deploying search-and-rescue teams, medical resources, and humanitarian assistance to Venezuela.”
The United States extends our deepest condolences to the people of Venezuela following the devastating earthquakes.
Our hearts are with all those who have lost loved ones, those injured, and the courageous rescue workers working tirelessly in the aftermath.
Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency shortly after the quakes. She said that Simón Bolívar International Airport in Caracas was closed on Thursday due to damage.
Rodriguez said the number of deaths so far totals 164 people and that around 1,000 people were injured.
Utter devastation seen across the Northern Venezuelan coastal city of La Guaira, following tonight’s pair of major earthquakes, measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude with an epicenter just to the west of Caracas. pic.twitter.com/BQv4YixUiB
The official death toll in Venezuela is 32. The US Geological Survey’s own models estimate the real number will most likely reach the thousands, with a serious chance of passing 10,000 or maybe towards 100,000 as per some reports. The most important figure in this disaster is the…
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) June 25, 2026
• At least 164 people have died and 971 were injured after two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening, according to Acting President Delcy Rodriguez on Thursday
• The earthquakes measured 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude and struck less than a minute apart on Wednesday evening, with the epicenter in Yaracuy state west of Caracas
• Around 30 aftershocks have been recorded following the two strongest quakes, with 20 aftershocks recorded as of Wednesday evening
• The earthquakes toppled buildings, knocked down power lines, and devastated Caracas’s main airport
Emergency Response
• Venezuela declared a state of emergency after the earthquakes
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States is immediately deploying search and rescue teams, medical resources, and humanitarian assistance to Venezuela
• Acting President Delcy Rodríguez spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone after the earthquakes
Debt Restructuring Plans
• Venezuela is set to reveal a $240 billion debt pile, much higher than previously estimated market figures of $150 billion to $200 billion, as the country embarks on the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, according to unidentified people familiar with the country’s plans
• The Rodríguez administration is seeking a restructuring agreement with creditors before the end of the year and has retained Centerview Partners bne
Political Developments
• The Inter-American Development Bank recognized Venezuela’s Economy Vice President Calixto Ortega Sanchez as the new governor representing the country to the bank on Wednesday Bloomberg First Word 6/24
• Acting President Delcy Rodríguez said Venezuela was looking to strengthen cooperation with Colombia’s incoming administration
• Delcy Rodríguez has been crisscrossing Venezuela for months in what she describes as a pilgrimage, attempting to shed the baggage of a deeply unpopular government and position herself as its standard-bearer since Nicolás Maduro’s ouster
“Heavy Casualties” After Massive Twin Quakes Rock Venezuela, Topple Buildings; “International Response May Be Needed”
Twin earthquakes rocked Venezuela on Wednesday evening, collapsing entire apartment buildings across Caracas and leaving behind scenes of widespread devastation.
The USGS said the first quake registered a magnitude of 7.1, with an epicenter near Morón, about 104 miles west of Caracas, at a depth of 8 miles. One minute later, a similarly massive magnitude 7.5 quake struck nearby, roughly 10 miles southwest of Morón, at a depth of 6 miles. Remarkably, the dual quake was followed almost immediately across the world by a 6.9 magnitude temblor in northern Japan, which rattled buildings in Tokyo.
USGS issued a red-alert mass-casualty warning due to the combination of shallow depth, heavy population exposure, vulnerable buildings, and estimated losses large enough to require an international response.
“Red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Past red alerts have required a national or international response,” USGS said, adding, “Estimated economic losses are 2-20% GDP of Venezuela.”
In the Palos Grandes neighborhood in eastern Caracas, residents tried frantically to rescue people trapped under the debris of collapsed buildings, Bloomberg reports. Terrified families remained in the streets as the capital was hit by aftershocks. Venezuelan migrants in Colombia and elsewhere sought to reach relatives, but cellphone coverage was down in swathes of the country.
The early footage emerging from the devastation is dramatic:
Devastating scenes emerge from La Guaira, Venezuela, following a powerful earthquake that struck the region. pic.twitter.com/fBMIDWuabP
Fishermen in the sea off the coast of La Guaira record the moments after the earthquake with dust covering large parts of the coast as a result of building collapses#Venezuelapic.twitter.com/D8KNwLkLDf
Local news showed significant damage to the capital’s airport, with parts of the roof collapsing and throwing up thick clouds of gray dust.
Passengers panic and run for cover at Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía, Venezuela, as the terminal shakes and power flickers, resulting from a massive 7.5 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Caracas. pic.twitter.com/uWN4ZqFjOZ
Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said in a national address that some houses and buildings have collapsed. He warned residents to stay outside due to the risk from aftershocks. Cabello said that states including Trujillo, Yaracuy, Carabobo, Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira were also affected.
Immense damage seen to buildings across Venezuela’s capital of Caracas, following what now appears to have been a “double-event” 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquake back-to-back near the coast in Northern Venezuela, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). pic.twitter.com/XoG2jSJMf2
Authorities haven’t yet published estimates of the number of dead or injured. There were no official reports of damage to the nation’s oil infrastructure. Yet footage shows damage to one of Venezuela’s key petrochemical plants.
Así está la situación en Venezuela en la planta de Pequiven en Morón en el estado Carabobo luego del sismo pic.twitter.com/IFp1pGjQFm
The closest historical comparison to the twin quakes this evening likely dates back to the March 26, 1812, Caracas earthquake sequence, which was described as twin destructive shocks within 30 minutes. That quake led to an estimated death toll of 15,000 to 20,000, while a USGS historical summary says it may have claimed about 30,000 lives.
BREAKING: Multiple structures have reportedly collapsed in Caracas, Venezuela, following a powerful earthquake that struck the region. pic.twitter.com/9KSN4srhwB
There were no immediate reports of damage to Venezuela’s oil facilities, according to people familiar with the situation. The country’s refining hub in Paraguaná, 225 kilometers (140 miles) west of the epicenter, continued operations as usual. Work at the port of Jose complex and at the Puerto La Cruz refinery was unaffected.
The disaster will further strain the nation’s crisis-hit economy. The country is reeling from one of the world’s fastest inflation rates and rolling power outages. As such, the quake could open a window for President Trump to offer emergency aid and logistical support, potentially creating the first step toward a broader US-backed reconstruction effort in Venezuela.
One of the more embarrassing habits of modern finance is its insistence on pretending the stock market has some integrity left.
Capital, we used to think, flowed to the most productive businesses. Prices reflected fundamentals. Risk was priced. The market, in the long run, separated signal from noise and rewarded cash generation over fantasy. That is the civics-class version of markets, and at this point it bears no resemblance to the one we actually trade in.
In other words, the modern market increasingly allows stocks to get bid up through narrative, call option activity and momentum, then ratifies those bloated valuations through index inclusion, and finally pipes them directly into the retirement system through ETFs, mutual funds and model portfolios.
This is why we see ridiculous things like companies with negative earnings outperforming companies with positive earnings. “Something is broken in price discovery…” wrote Apollo’s Chief Economist about this chart last week:
He’s right. It’s not price discovery. It is a structural conveyor belt for institutionalizing air pockets and gutting the once conservative retirement and pension accounts millions of Americans depend on to be there for them in due time.
The same critique people are beginning to make about SpaceX valuation applies more broadly to the public market. Narrative and scarcity can overwhelm cash economics for a very long time, especially when investors are convinced they are looking at a once-in-a-generation story.
In private markets that can happen through funding rounds, manufactured scarcity and marks that drift upward because nobody has to test them in public every day. Until, as we’re seeing in private credit, people eventually discover the “price” they were quoted doesn’t reflect reality and they rush to get their money back.
In public markets, the mechanism is different but the result rhymes: options flows, benchmark inclusion and passive ownership can all work together to preserve valuations that have floated far above what the underlying cash economics would ordinarily justify. And the rush to the exits ends the same way: there isn’t enough room for everyone to get out, all at once.
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That is the part that should make people uncomfortable, because it means the market is no longer merely tolerating excess. It is operationalizing it. The sequence is now obvious enough that it should not require euphemism.
First comes the inflation phase. A company captures the market’s imagination with a story large enough to suspend ordinary valuation discipline. Maybe it is AI. Maybe it is autonomous driving. Maybe it is space. Maybe it is simply the promise of scale, disruption and a giant total addressable market that no one will ever bother discounting back to the present. Whatever the story is, the important point is that the story arrives first and the cash generation can show up later, if at all.
Second, the options market does what it now routinely does in modern finance: it takes a speculative move and turns it into a reflexive one. Call buying forces dealer hedging. Dealer hedging forces more buying. The stock rises because the stock is rising. Price momentum becomes its own justification. “The market” appears to be voting in favor of the company, when in reality part of the move may have nothing to do with a sober reassessment of long-term cash flows and everything to do with plumbing. That alone would be enough to cheapen the credibility of price discovery. But the real damage comes from what happens next.
For the better part of the last two decades, and especially in the post-crisis era, markets have also been conditioned by a policy regime that repeatedly suppressed the cost of risk, flooded the system with liquidity and trained investors to expect intervention when things broke. The lesson absorbed by an entire generation of speculators was not that risk had disappeared, but that it had become someone else’s problem. Drawdowns were increasingly treated as temporary policy events. Volatility was an inconvenience. Valuation discipline became optional. If enough liquidity can be sprayed into the system whenever it seizes up, the market stops functioning as a mechanism for pricing risk and starts functioning as a machine for routing around it.
So by the time a stock has been inflated by story, momentum and options reflexivity, it is already trading in an environment where skepticism has been structurally disadvantaged. Then comes the canonization phase.
Third, once the market cap is bloated enough, index inclusion becomes automatic. The stock enters the benchmark not because anyone sat down and decided it was sensibly valued, but because the rules say it is now too large to ignore. At that point the character of ownership changes. Passive funds buy it because they have to. Retirement accounts buy it because they have to. Target-date funds buy it because they have to. Model portfolios buy it because they have to. Financial advisors buy it because “the index” is sold as prudence itself. What began as a valuation inflated by narrative, liquidity and options mechanics is suddenly institutionalized by passive ownership.
This is where the market stops being a market and starts looking more like a laundering operation.
A bloated valuation gets transformed into benchmark legitimacy, and benchmark legitimacy gets transformed into compulsory ownership by people who are explicitly trying not to speculate. The retiree buying an S&P 500 ETF is not making an active judgment on the most inflated companies in the index. He is trying to avoid making active judgments altogether. That is the whole point. But the system has arranged things so that his caution becomes the exit liquidity for somebody else’s euphoria.
And then the distortion deepens further, because overvalued names do not merely sit inside the index. They become the index, as we discussed in my above interview.
This is the part the passive revolution would rather not talk about. The benchmark is supposed to be the antidote to individual-stock insanity. You may not know which company is overhyped, fraudulent, or structurally unsound, but the index protects you because you own everything. Diversification is the defense. Except diversification stops working the way people imagine it does when the same overvalued names swell large enough to dominate the benchmark itself. At that point the index is no longer neutralizing the bubble. It is warehousing it.
And because this process is mediated through “passive” products, it becomes almost invisible. There is no dramatic moment when someone rings a bell and announces that the benchmark now contains a giant blister of overvaluation at its center. No one says the quiet part out loud: that a stock whose valuation was inflated by options flows and euphoric liquidity is now being preserved by forced passive ownership, and that this is happening inside the very products sold to the public as the safest, most diversified entrance into markets. Instead, the distortion gets laundered into respectability. Once a company sits inside the index, skepticism begins to sound unserious. If it’s in everyone’s retirement account, how crazy can it be?
Quite crazy, actually. Because if options, liquidity and narrative can help create the inflation, and index inclusion can help preserve it, then the crash mechanism is not exactly difficult to imagine. Once the story breaks, or liquidity tightens, or the options reflex flips, the same structure that held the valuation aloft can produce an air pocket on the way down. Passive ownership does not eliminate volatility. It can concentrate it. A stock that has become a major index weight does not just fall as an individual company. It drags on the benchmark itself. The “safe” diversified vehicle becomes the transmission mechanism through which the excess is spread to everyone, which is why I argued days ago that SpaceX could become “systemic”.
Quick note: this is why I own equal weighted ETFs for the S&P and not market cap weighted ETFs. In RSP (instead of SPY), every company carries approximately the same weighting.
That single structural difference dramatically changes the risk profile. Technology falls to around 18.27% of the fund instead of nearly 36%. Industrials become a much larger piece at 14.69%, financial services rise to 14.41%, and healthcare accounts for roughly 10.91%.
Instead of being overwhelmingly dependent on AI enthusiasm and mega-cap growth, RSP spreads exposure across the broader American economy. When I decided to completely stop trading and turn my last portfolio over to advisors, I requested SPY be excluded in favor of RSP for future recurring buys, as I expect it will plunge less than SPY if the market starts to tank.
The incentive is obvious. If a company can get its valuation high enough, through narrative, momentum, options activity and a market environment conditioned to treat risk as a rounding error, it can cross into a different category of ownership altogether. If executive compensation is based on milestones tied to market cap, revenue and KPIs and not actual profitability, you can become a trillionaire on three companies that have cumulatively made barely $50 billion in profit.
It no longer needs every marginal buyer to make a fresh, disciplined case for the business. It gets absorbed into the benchmark. From there, a portion of demand becomes automatic. Valuation no longer has to be defended in the old-fashioned way, through cash flows, margins and capital discipline, because the market structure itself begins doing part of the work.
That is the scandal. Not that some stocks are expensive. Not that markets occasionally get excited. Not that manias happen. The scandal is that the architecture of the modern market increasingly allows valuations to be inflated by reflexive mechanics, ratified by index rules and then distributed into the retirement system under the label of prudence.
At some point, we should be able to ask whether this still deserves to be called a market in the traditional sense. Markets are supposed to allocate capital, price risk and reward productive enterprise over fantasy. But what do you call a system in which cash-losing companies can outrun cash-generating ones for years, where options flows can overwhelm fundamental analysis, where a long era of monetary excess has dulled the fear of downside to the point that risk itself starts to feel optional, and where the benchmark products sold as prudent long-term investing become the vessel through which concentrated valuation distortions are transmitted to the public?
You call it structurally broken. OK, or, at a minimum, you stop pretending not to notice, for f*ck’s sake.
Because the most absurd part of this entire arrangement is not the distortion itself. It is the refusal to ask serious questions about it. We are now far enough into this cycle of options-driven inflation, passive absorption and index concentration that the mechanism is visible in plain sight. It is not some fringe theory. It is a description of how modern market plumbing interacts with investor behavior, monetary excess and benchmark design.
So the real question is no longer whether the market can keep getting weirder. Of course it can. The real question is when we stop treating these distortions as amusing side effects and start treating them as evidence that the structure itself is rotten. When do we stop calling it diversification when the same overvalued names are swelling at the center of every index? When do we stop pretending that forced passive ownership is a neutral outcome rather than a way of institutionalizing euphoria? When do we stop nodding along as options-driven inflation gets converted into benchmark legitimacy and then into retirement-account exposure?
And when, exactly, do we admit that a market which can be gamed this way is not merely overheated, but fundamentally unserious? Sadly, I know the answer. After the wreckage and the crash, when it’s too late.
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QTR’s Disclaimer:Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only.In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.
And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
