92.6 F
Chicago
Friday, September 4, 2026
type here...
Home Blog Page 943

Bank of Canada Cuts 25bps As Expected, Cites Weak Growth

survivalnomics
-
0
Bank of Canada Cuts 25bps As Expected, Cites Weak Growth

In a preview of what is to come today at 2pm from the Fed, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp to 2.25%, as expected, noting that current policy is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. 

In its statement, the central bank noted the Canadian economy contracted 1.6% in the second quarter amid heightened uncertainty, and said the trade dispute with the US is likely to result in weak growth in the second half of the year, but there will be some help from rising consumer and government spending and as exports and business investment begin to recover.

They said the labor market remains soft with job losses continuing to build in trade-sensitive sectors. The BoC noted inflation was slightly higher than expected and remains sticky

Some more highlights from the statement: 

US Tariffs

  • Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than- usual range of risks.
  • Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about Z/% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.
  • US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber.

Economy

  • As a result of US trade actions, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year.
  • Canada’s labor market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses.
  • The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

Policy

  • If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.
  • The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.

In his opening statement, BoC Governor Macklem said rates were cut again to support the economy through adjustment to US trade policy (yes, yes, it’s all Trump’s fault). Some more highlights from what Macklem said, thanks to Newsquawk: For the first time since January and the start of the trade conflict, the Bank is publishing a baseline outlook for economic growth and inflation, rather than alternative scenarios; Focused on ensuring Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Trade

  • US tariffs and trade uncertainty have weakened the Canadian economy. We expect very modest growth through the rest of the year, with some pickup in 2026. While this weakness is restraining price increases, the trade conflict is also adding costs for many businesses, putting upward pressure on inflation. We expect these opposing forces to roughly offset, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
  • The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The US trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.
  • US trade policy remains unpredictable, as events over the weekend reminded us. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual—we need to be humble about our forecast. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.

Labor

  • The labor market is soft. Job losses have been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, and hiring has been weak across the economy.
  • The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September, and wage growth has slowed.

Economy

  • GDP growth is expected to resume, but remain weak, averaging about 0.75%. It should then pick up on a quarterly basis in 2026 as exports and investment recover, and average about 1.5% by 2027. This implies excess supply is only taken up gradually.
  • While the global economy has been resilient to the rise in US tariffs and increased uncertainty, the impacts are becoming more evident.
  • If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our MPR, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.
  • Canadian businesses and households are feeling the consequences of increased US protectionism.

The market reaction was muted: since the rate cut was expected, and coupled with the line that “current policy rate is about the right level”, implying the BOC would pause and observe effects of its recent easing, the USDCAD initially fell from 1.3929 to 1.3916 before stabilizing around 1.3925 after the kneejerk move. In short, a nothingburger. 

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 10:08

US Pending Home Sales Rise Most In Almost A Year As Mortgage Rates Slide

survivalnomics
-
0
US Pending Home Sales Rise Most In Almost A Year As Mortgage Rates Slide

September data for the US housing market has been positive so far (with new home sales soaring and existing home sales ‘off the lows’) as mortgage rates trend lower offering some affordability respite for buyers.

However, today’s pending home sales data disappointed, printing unchanged MoM versus expectations of a 1.2% MoM rise (after an upwardly revised 4.2% MoM rise in August)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, on a YoY basis, sales rose 1.5% –  the best since Nov 2024.

The total pending home sales Index pushed further ‘off the record lows’, but is hardly

Source: Bloomberg

“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Nonetheless, “mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which should further improve affordability, though the government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.”

Moreover, the so-called “lock-in effect” – in which homeowners resist selling because of their existing low-rate mortgages – is waning and helping to boost inventory.

Source: Bloomberg

By region, contract signings on previously owned homes rose 1.1% in the South to the highest level since March.

Pending sales also climbed in the Northeast, while falling in the West and Midwest.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 10:08

Russian Oil Giant Lukoil Selling International Assets After Trump Sanctions

survivalnomics
-
0
Russian Oil Giant Lukoil Selling International Assets After Trump Sanctions

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Russian oil company Lukoil said it plans to sell its international assets after sanctions imposed by the Trump administration targeted the company and fellow Russian energy giant Rosneft in a bid to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine.

The company announced the decision on Oct. 27, saying that the move was a response to “restrictive measures” imposed by several countries, including the United States. The sanctions—announced by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Oct. 22—froze Lukoil’s assets in the United States and barred U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with the company and its subsidiaries.

“Lukoil informs that owing to introduction of restrictive measures against the Company and its subsidiaries by some states the Company announces its intention to sell its international assets,” the oil giant said in a statement.

The company stated that it had begun “consideration of bids from potential purchasers” and would seek an extension of its OFAC “wind-down license” if it needs more time beyond the Nov. 21 grace period deadline to complete transactions.

‘Tremendous Sanctions’

The sanctions are part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine and agree to a cease-fire. They represent the first major round of economic penalties imposed on Moscow since Trump’s return to the White House for a second term.

“I just felt it was time,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Oct. 22 while hosting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “These are tremendous sanctions. We hope they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.”

The measures cover Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than half of Russia’s crude oil exports, and nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. They also open the door to secondary sanctions on foreign banks and companies that continue doing business with the blacklisted companies, effectively cutting off access to the U.S. financial system for violators.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who oversees OFAC, said in an Oct. 22 statement. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war.”

Lukoil’s international holdings are extensive, spanning 11 countries, including oil refineries in Bulgaria, Romania, and the Netherlands and stakes in upstream projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and the Republic of the Congo.

The sanctions are a sharp turn from Trump’s earlier strategy of restraint while pursuing diplomatic channels to end the war. The president canceled a planned summit with Putin in late October, saying that talks had become “a waste of time.” His administration has also pressed countries such as India and China to curb Russian oil imports and warned of penalties for noncompliance.

The UK also imposed sanctions on Lukoil on Oct. 15, with British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper citing the need to pressure Russian leadership into a cease-fire.

“At this critical moment for Ukraine, Europe is stepping up,” Cooper said in a statement.

“Together, the UK and our allies are piling the pressure on Putin—going after his oil, gas and shadow fleet—and we will not relent until he abandons his failed war of conquest and gets serious about peace.”

The UK move targeted Lukoil, Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers, subjecting them to an asset freeze, transport restrictions, and a ban on UK trust services, meaning that UK companies can no longer help them set up or manage offshore accounts or companies.

Moscow Condemns ‘Unfriendly Act’

At the Kremlin, Putin condemned the U.S. sanctions as an “unfriendly act,” accusing Washington of undermining recently improving relations between the two countries.

“It is an obvious thing and it does not strengthen Russia–U.S. relations that have just started recovering,” he said on Oct. 23, state news agency TASS reported. “Certainly, the U.S. administration harms Russia–U.S. relations by such actions.”

The measures are expected to squeeze Russia’s finances at a crucial time. Oil and gas revenues account for roughly one-third of Moscow’s federal budget, funding both military spending and domestic subsidies that help cushion the economic blow of the war.

Putin said restrictions on Russian oil exports could push global energy prices higher, noting that, unlike Russia, the United States consumes more oil than it sells. He said the sanctions “will not have a significant impact” on Russia’s economy.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 06:30

Jamaica Devastated By Menacing Hurricane Melissa: Widespread Power Outages, Internet Blackout, & Severe Infrastructure Damage 

survivalnomics
-
0
Jamaica Devastated By Menacing Hurricane Melissa: Widespread Power Outages, Internet Blackout, & Severe Infrastructure Damage 

Hurricane Melissa pummeled southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, before making landfall in Cuba early Wednesday as an “extremely dangerous” Category 3 hurricane.

Damage assessment in Jamaica will begin today, and those with Starlink connectivity on the battered island will be broadcasting the devastating aftermath of a storm that has already caused widespread electricity and internet outages, mainly in the western and central regions. 

“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness stated, adding, “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”

Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz told Sky News that eastern regions, including Kingston, were largely spared, but reports from other areas, particularly the western part of the island nation, were entirely devastated by sustained winds of 185 mph, which downed power and telecom lines. 

“We’re hoping to be able to do an assessment tomorrow, but as of right now, the reports that are coming in are catastrophic,” Vaz said in an interview. “Not very much survives a Category 5 hurricane, in terms of infrastructure.”

Footage on social media shows extensive damage. Those with holiday plans to visit Jamaican resorts may want to check on the status of the resort.

Vaz noted that Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston may reopen for emergency flights on Thursday, while Sangster International in Montego Bay suffered severe damage. Airports are central to Jamaica’s tourism-driven economy, and reports say some Americans are trapped on the island. 

The question now is whether the $150 million catastrophe bond (cat bond) that the Government of Jamaica renewed last year will be triggered.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 05:45

France Proposes National Bitcoin Reserve, Wants To Buy 2% Of Bitcoin Supply

survivalnomics
-
0
France Proposes National Bitcoin Reserve, Wants To Buy 2% Of Bitcoin Supply

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

A pro-crypto bill will be tabled today in the French Parliament by the center-right Union of the Right and Centre (UDR) party, led by lawmaker Éric Ciotti, marking the first time such a comprehensive legislative proposal on cryptocurrency has been introduced in France. 

The initiative calls for a national Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and aims to position the cryptocurrency as a form of “digital gold” to strengthen financial sovereignty.

The proposed legislation would see France aim to acquire up to 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply — roughly 420,000 BTC — over the next seven to eight years, according to journalist Gregory Raymond.

To manage the reserve, the bill envisions the creation of a Public Administrative Establishment (EPA), similar in structure to France’s gold and foreign-currency holdings.

Funding for the Bitcoin reserve would come from multiple sources. Surplus nuclear and hydroelectric energy would power public Bitcoin mining operations, with adapted taxation for miners to encourage domestic participation.

Back in July, French lawmakers submitted a proposal to convert surplus electricity into economic value through Bitcoin mining. The bill outlined a five-year experimental program allowing energy producers to use excess power — particularly from nuclear and renewable sources — for mining. 

The July initiative aimed to tackle France’s recurring issue of energy overproduction, as producers were often forced to sell surplus electricity at a loss due to limited storage. The proposal described this as an “unacceptable economic and energy loss.” 

This new bill would also allow France to retain crypto seized during legal proceedings, and a quarter of funds collected via popular savings schemes, such as the Livret A and LDDS, would be allocated to daily Bitcoin purchases — approximately 15 million euros per day, or 55,000 BTC per year. 

Pending constitutional approval, citizens could also pay certain taxes in Bitcoin.

France explores stablecoins for payments

The bill also emphasizes the use of euro-denominated stablecoins for everyday payments, recognizing them as a credible alternative to traditional payment networks. 

Transactions under €200 would be exempt from taxation and social contributions, and payment of taxes in euro stablecoins would be allowed. 

The proposal explicitly opposes a European Central Bank-controlled digital euro, arguing that a centralized CBDC could threaten financial freedoms and personal privacy.

To support industry development, the legislation proposes adapting electricity taxation for mining through a progressive excise duty and flexible tariffs for data centers. It also encourages institutional adoption of Bitcoin and other crypto-assets via Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) and calls for revisions to European prudential rules, which currently impose high risk-weightings on certain crypto-assets, limiting the use of crypto as collateral for “Lombard” loans.

Despite its ambitious scope, the bill faces steep political hurdles. The UDR holds only 16 of 577 seats in the National Assembly, making adoption unlikely without broader support, per Raymond. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 05:00

Turkey’s First Domestic-Made Main Battle Tank Enters Service, Erdogan Hails Defeat Of Embargoes

survivalnomics
-
0
Turkey’s First Domestic-Made Main Battle Tank Enters Service, Erdogan Hails Defeat Of Embargoes

Turkey has officially delivered its first domestically produced Altay tanks to the armed forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced during the opening of the BMC Ankara Tank and New Generation Armored Vehicles Production Facility on Tuesday.

The Altay is the country’s first homegrown main battle tank, and is being mass-produced at the Ankara plant operated by Turkish automaker BMC.

Via BMC

Erdogan in remarks touted that the tanks underwent an extensive testing process, involving traversing over 20,000 miles and 3,700 testing iterations involving live-fire exercises, before being handed over to the military.

Erdogan further highlighted that the production facility, which Turkish media says spans over 63,000 square meters, will be capable of manufacturing eight Altay tanks and ten Altug armored vehicles each month.

There have been many years in the recent past which Turkey, despite having the second largest army in NATO, was under sanctions by European nations, particularly over its long-running war the the Kurdish PKK.

At the peak of Turkey and Kurdish violence in the 1990s and into the 2000s, and amid criticisms out of Europe, this incentivized Turkey to get more serious about ramping up its domestic defense sector.

“We continue to write a legend with our state-of-the-art air, land, and sea vehicles,” Erdogan said Tuesday. “We are no longer just a state that follows – we are a state that is followed.”

Erdogan alluded precisely to the question of international sanctions, saying the “goal with the Altay tank is to avoid dependency on critical materials.”

BMC Handout via AA File Photo

“We have reached this stage despite the embargoes, and God willing, we will successfully carry the process forward,” he said. “The obstacles placed in our path may slow us down, may delay us a little, but they will never prevent us from reaching our destination.”

Turkish media has featured some of the new Altay main battle tank’s specs and capabilities as follows:

  • Aselsan has integrated multiple critical systems into the Altay. The VOLKAN-II tank fire control system provides precision targeting capabilities. The remote-controlled weapon system enables engagement of targets at extended ranges with accuracy.
  • The tank command control information system establishes the tactical network backbone for the Altay platoon and company-level operations. The Internal Communication System ensures seamless crew coordination during combat operations.
  • The tank laser warning system alerts crew members to laser-based targeting threats in real-time. The tank driver vision System provides the driver with enhanced situational awareness and visibility in all lighting conditions.
  • Soldiers’ Second-Sight Vision Sub-Unit enhances gunner targeting accuracy and extended-range target identification capabilities.

Via Daily Sabah

More images of the country’s new line of armor in action…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 04:15

Trade Secrets Vs. Rare Earths: EU Faces Chinese Pressure As U.S. Moves

survivalnomics
-
0
Trade Secrets Vs. Rare Earths: EU Faces Chinese Pressure As U.S. Moves

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

China is responding increasingly aggressively to mounting trade pressure from Washington. The practice of forcing even German companies to hand over trade secrets in exchange for rare earths exposes the Chinese leadership’s coercive stance. For Europeans, it is high time to align with the U.S.

For months, German firms with a need for rare earths have faced growing pressure from regulators in China: to maintain access to this critical group of raw materials, they are compelled by Chinese authorities to disclose sensitive operational and supply chain data—a form of technological tribute that creates long-term strategic dependencies and extracts know-how from German industry under Beijing’s state coercion.

Of course, this practice applies to companies from other EU states as well. Germans are by no means alone in being forced to surrender economic sovereignty.

Everything Is Exposed

According to an analysis by Bloomberg Law, the catalog demanded by Chinese authorities includes precise data and detailed information on internal production processes, customer lists, end uses, and supply chains. Everything potentially useful to Chinese competitors is laid bare.

In one case, German trader Magnosphere reported that Chinese authorities requested confidential data, including product and manufacturing details, before issuing export licenses.

Another example: European chemical and specialty materials group Solvay recently announced plans to expand its rare earth production capacity in La Rochelle, precisely because dependence on China is a threat.

In short, German companies face a choice: raw materials or sovereignty, with the risk of massive production disruptions if Beijing restricts exports. German automakers, in particular, are acutely aware of this issue—the conflict is escalating and will not vanish amid China’s economic and domestic political struggles.

China’s economy is caught in a deflationary spiral, unemployment is rising, and American pressure on the Chinese export model forces the political leadership to implement rapid course corrections.

It was foreseeable that the Communist Party would leverage every available geopolitical instrument in such a situation.

China Dominates the Market

The dispute over rare earths, now a strategic battleground in the geopolitical power struggle of major players, reveals their fundamental importance to the modern economy: they are the nervous system of industrial manufacturing. No neodymium, no aircraft production, no electric mobility, no artificial intelligence.

China has so far controlled up to 90% of global processing of this group of raw materials. About 60% of known deposits are located in Chinese territory.

The European Union remains largely powerless in this power play. Through subsidized recycling programs and its own partnership initiative, it seeks to secure access to rare earths worldwide. Yet here, as in trade policy vis-à-vis the U.S., it is equally ineffective. Today, the entire geopolitical focus is on the U.S.-China conflict. Europe is marginalized.

U.S. Sets Facts

U.S. President Donald Trump has begun dismantling the strategic dependency the U.S. faces, similar to the EU. By threatening Chinese exports to the U.S. worth $300 billion with additional 100% tariffs, he forced Beijing onto the defensive.

China had threatened to choke high-tech supply chains. Then came Trump’s 72-hour turnaround. While the EU scrapes its last reserves to sustain the lost Ukraine conflict and entangles itself in regulatory debates, Americans created facts.

A raw materials agreement was signed with Malaysia, Thailand inked a processing deal, and Australia committed billions to developing new mines. Mining rights in Cambodia were also secured.

Alternative Trade Formation

An alternative network of supply locations is emerging, with the potential to break China’s rare earth market dominance for the first time in 30 years. Trade flows are shifting at rapid speed: U.S.-China trade is shrinking sharply, with Chinese exports to the U.S. down about 27% this year, while ASEAN business booms. Washington is leveraging its massive domestic market—about a quarter of the global economy—as a geopolitical tool.

Trump’s message to partner states is clear: either play by our rules and gain access to the U.S. market on our terms, or face Beijing alone. Even if this requires your companies to hand over patents and trade secrets to secure measured supplies of scarce resources from China.

“Choose Your Fighter!” is now the Europeans’ stark reality.

EU Should Join Forces with the U.S.

The EU should urgently reconsider its stance toward Washington. On its own, energy-dependent and resource-poor Europe cannot free itself from China’s grip. Beijing’s leverage is enormous. Europeans currently watch passively as China turns its export engine into a dumping ground for shrinking U.S. trade and systematically crushes local companies with massive subsidies and state export guarantees.

Europe should align with Washington and accept American conditions for true free trade. This means finally abandoning typical European protectionism: the climate regulatory jungle, technocratic harmonization catalogs, and a dangerously aggressive censorship policy targeting U.S. tech companies.

In short: Europe must decide whether to remain a powerless regulatory advocate or challenge Chinese power alongside the U.S., playing by its rules rather than bowing helplessly.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 03:30

US Excludes Rosneft Germany From Russia Sanctions, Floats 6-Month Window

survivalnomics
-
0
US Excludes Rosneft Germany From Russia Sanctions, Floats 6-Month Window

Germany’s Economy Minister told Reuters on Tuesday that the Trump administration had provided written confirmation that the German division of Russia’s Rosneft would be excluded from new American energy sanctions, since the assets are no longer under Russian control.

Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said Washington had sent a “Letter of Comfort” acknowledging that Rosneft Deutschland had been completely separated from its Russian parent company. Further, the United States has reportedly given Germany six months to resolve the issue of how Rosneft’s German assets will be managed, Bloomberg has reported.

Via dpa

In the meantime a temporary restricted license for Rosneft Deutschland is under consideration, which Berlin is heavily reviewing. The company holds stakes in three German refineries, representing around 12% of the country’s total refining capacity.

Berlin has thus far refrained from full nationalization of the assets on fears that this drastic action could prompt severe retaliatory measures by Moscow against German companies still operating in Russia.

Earlier in the week, Germany’s Economy ministry sought to assure, “The government is in contact with relevant authorities in Washington.”

Berlin has been arguing that the new sanctions should avoid targeting Rosneft’s subsidiaries in Germany as they remain “decoupled from their Russian parent company.”

Financial Times has pointed out there could be serious domestic political ramifications hanging in the balance:

The PCK refinery, in the north-eastern German town of Schwedt, is of particular concern, one person familiar with the assets said. Sitting atop the Druzhba pipeline, about 4,000km from central Russia, it accounts for more than 12 per cent of Germany’s refinery capacity, making it one of the largest oil processing companies in the country.

The threat to the refineries is yet another challenge for the German government, which is struggling to reignite a stagnant economy grappling with high energy prices — the costly legacy of previous chancellors to shut down nuclear plants and to rely on cheap Russian energy imports.

The PCK refinery also poses a political problem for the ruling coalition between Merz’s Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats: it is a large employer in the former communist state of Brandenburg, where support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged.

As Politico notes of the fresh US sanctions, “Donald Trump’s surprise move to sanction Russia’s largest oil companies won’t paralyze Vladimir Putin’s war machine — but it will help the EU kick Russian oil out of the bloc for good.”

Last week, he announced the “tremendous” new sanctions targeting Russia’s Lukoil and its state-owned Rosneft, and “The details of the new measures are still being worked out. But in theory, they threaten to force the two firms to sell their assets and end their remaining oil pipeline supplies to Europe.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 02:45

Mass Killings Reported, Many Thousands Trapped, As Key Sudanese City Seized By Militia

survivalnomics
-
0
Mass Killings Reported, Many Thousands Trapped, As Key Sudanese City Seized By Militia

Via Middle East Eye

Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has stormed the North Darfur city of el-Fasher, prompting fears of widespread killings and abuses, hours after ceasefire negotiations in Washington collapsed. There were hopes late last week that the US-sponsored talks could achieve some sort of breakthrough.

However, sources told Middle East Eye that the UAE, which is the RSF’s most significant patron, refused to address the situation in el-Fasher, which has been under siege for over 500 days. On Sunday morning, RSF fighters entered the city, where around 260,000 people have been trapped, seizing an army base and causing the defenses to collapse.

RSF fighters celebrating in the streets of el-Fasher, Screengrab/AFP

The RSF claims it is in control of the city, describing its capture as a “decisive turning point”, after the paramilitaries had lost significant ground to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in recent months.

So far, the SAF and its allied Joint Forces have not commented on the developments, despite videos emerging that purport to show the RSF detaining and lashing people in and around el-Fasher.

One video, which Middle East Eye was not able to independently verify, appeared to show fighters forcing some detained people to praise RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, before opening fire on them. Others, which MEE has also been unable to verify, seem to depict RSF fighters firing on fleeing civilians.

The RSF’s official media published footage of Abdul-Rahim Dagalo, Hemedti’s brother and second-in-command, addressing his toops from the Sixth Infantry base seized on Sunday.

Contact with people in el-Fasher has become very difficult, with people in the city only able to communicate to the outside through Starlink over recent months. However, MEE was able to reach military sources, local fighters and activists in the city’s pro-democracy Popular Resistance Committee, who said they are still fighting and that el-Fasher’s defenders made a tactical retreat from the Sixth Infantry garrison.

One of the fighters told MEE that the RSF attacked on Sunday with more ferocity than in any previous assault. “Serious fighting has erupted in el-Fasher in the past few days, with all kinds of weapons used – both sides using drones especially,” said the fighter, who is not being identified for security reasons. “However, the RSF’s heavy firing allowed them to enter the city through its eastern side after crushing our front checkpoints, barricades and trenches.”

Another fighter told MEE: “The majority of our forces have withdrawn from the base to the neighbourhood of al-Daraga in the north of the city, where we are in good control at the moment, and the fighting is still ongoing.”  

Rapid Support Forces fighters celebrate in the streets of el-Fasher, in video footage released on the RSF Telegram account on Sunday.

UAE controversy 

The storming of el-Fasher came just hours after ceasefire talks in Washington collapsed. The negotiations, which were sponsored by the Trump administration, included the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who alongside the US make up the Quad of states tasked with addressing the two-year Sudan war.

Also in Washington were SAF and RSF delegations, who refused to speak directly to each other. Diplomatic sources told MEE that any discussions about el-Fasher were shut down by the UAE, which supplies the RSF with weapons, funds and mercenaries.

The RSF, which has been accused of genocide elsewhere in Darfur, has surrounded el-Fasher with mines, prevented any aid from reaching its starving civilians and carried out massacres in displacement camps outside the city.

“The Emiratis did not want to describe the situation as a siege and said both sides were equally responsible for crimes in el-Fasher,” one diplomatic source told MEE. Two sources familiar with the talks said the SAF delegation rejected the UAE’s participation in the talks at all, seeing it as a belligerent.

After the talks collapsed, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohi al-Din Salem, who was part of the SAF delegation, said: “If there is to be any dealing with the UAE, it will be as an enemy, not a mediator.” 

On Sunday, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on “all countries that are interfering in this war, and that are providing weapons to the parties to the war, to stop doing that”.

Diplomatic sources told MEE that Massad Boulos, Trump’s envoy for Arab and African affairs tasked with leading the negotiations, has been engaged in talks with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the US-sanctioned head of the Sudanese army and government, since September.

“The two sides have put their conditions on the table. Massad has demanded SAF reduces the Islamist influence, stops bringing arms in from Iran and backs the Abraham Accords, as well as other measures like countering Russian and Chinese economic interests,” one of the diplomatic sources said. “On the other hand, Burhan has asked for the US to stop the UAE’s involvement, dismantle the RSF, or at least see the paramilitaries integrated within SAF, and also lift US sanctions from Sudanese officials.”

Sudan’s war began in April 2023 when tensions over plans to fold the RSF into the regular military exploded into a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced 13 million others.

El-Fasher was the only SAF-held area in the vast region of Darfur, and its fall means Sudan has been divided in two, with the military-dominated government ruling the east from Port Sudan and the RSF’s rival administration in Nyala overseeing the west.

After the negotiations in Washington collapsed on Saturday, Boulos attempted to salvage something from the talks by posting photos on X of the Quad delegations and announcing a Joint Operational Committee “to strengthen coordination on urgent priorities”.

However, the next day, as details began to emerge of the assault on el-Fasher, he took to X again, this time calling on the RSF “to protect civilians and prevent further suffering”. He said, “The world is watching el-Fasher and the RSF’s actions with deep concern.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/29/2025 – 02:00

Is The US Planning To Wage An Intensified Proxy-War-Of-Attrition Against Russia?

survivalnomics
-
0
Is The US Planning To Wage An Intensified Proxy-War-Of-Attrition Against Russia?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Trump’s latest escalation against Russia took the form of imposing severe sanctions against its top two energy companies, canceling his planned meeting with Putin, and now declaring that they won’t meet again unless it’s to finalize a deal over Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote about the implications of his flip-flop here, insinuating that they presage an intensified US proxy war of attrition on Russia.

The present piece will briefly explore what form this could take and its likelihood of success.

The WSJ posits that “The drone revolution…means that neither side is likely to make major territorial strides soon”, but left unsaid is that this is also due to continued NATO support for Ukraine, including the bloc’s purchase of US weapons at full price for transfer to there per the new scheme from last summer.

Maintaining this de facto balance of drone and conventional forces, which is due to NATO’s indispensable support for Ukraine, is therefore the US’ top priority if wants to atrophy Russia’s strength with time.

The second part of what’s arguably Trump’s new three-phase strategy against Russia is to strictly enforce compliance with the latest sanctions, especially when it comes to Russia’s Indian and Chinese partners that together comprise the RIC core of BRICS, in order to greatly reduce Russia’s foreign revenue flows. The purpose is to set the stage for socio-economic troubles in Russia while gradually eroding its Great Power status if India, China, and others start to keep it at arm’s length to avoid crushing punitive tariffs.

And finally, the last part aims to incite unrest within Russia by exacerbating its aforesaid socio-economic troubles through likely support for more Ukrainian long-range strikes against oil refineries and other critical infrastructure, believing that rapidly worsening living standards will turn the population against Putin.

The idea is that political pressure from below would complement economic, political, and military pressure from abroad to coerce him into freezing the front without any concessions from Ukraine.

Each part of Trump’s new three-phase strategy against Russia has its drawbacks.

Beginning with the first, the financial burden for maintaining the de facto balance of forces in this proxy war falls on Europe, some of whose states might prefer to reduce expenditures on US arms for Ukraine in favor of replenishing their stockpiles. There’s also growing interest in prioritizing the European military-industrial complex over the US’. It therefore can’t be taken for granted that the frontlines will hold indefinitely.

As for the second, it was explained here why India and China aren’t expected to fully stop importing Russian energy, namely because the spike in prices would harm their economic growth more than punitive US tariffs would. Neither also wants to dump Russia at the risk of their rival strengthening ties with it at what might then be their expense. While Russia’s foreign revenue flows might drop, its war chest can keep funding the conflict for a few more years at least, thus delaying the sanctions’ impact.

Lastly, the Russian people remained calm during much more difficult times in World War II and after the Soviet collapse than whatever they might experience from large-scale Ukrainian strikes against their critical infrastructure, so they’re not expected to engage in serious unrest.

The security services are also strong enough to deal with whatever might unfold in any case.

For these reasons, the US’ intensified proxy war of attrition against Russia likely won’t succeed, but it might still deal some damage.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/28/2025 – 23:25

1...942943944...4,412Page 943 of 4,412

About Us

Popular Category

Editor Picks