Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The United States agreed a $330 million deal for the sale of fighter jets and other aircraft parts to Taiwan on Nov. 13 in the first such deal since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, prompting anger from China.

The announcement of the proposed arms deal follows last month’s meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in a diplomatic bid to secure a trade deal amid the ongoing tariff war between the world’s two largest economies.

Red Line

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory. Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters that the Chinese regime’s claim over Taiwan is at the core of China’s interests and is a red line that must not be crossed in China–U.S. relations.

He said the arms sale undermines Beijing’s sovereignty and security interests, sending what he called a “wrong signal” to Taiwan’s leaders.

The United States cut official ties with Taipei in 1979. While Washington has formal diplomatic ties with Beijing, its ties with Taiwan remain unofficial as the island nation maintains its own democratic government, military, and distinct way of life.

The United States is the main supplier of arms to the island nation and is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivers his address during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on Oct. 10, 2025. Sung Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

‘Cornerstone of Peace’

The Pentagon said in a statement that the proposed sale will improve Taiwan’s “capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16, C-130,” and other aircraft.

“The deepening of the Taiwan-U.S. security partnership is an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement, noting the arms sale was the first announced by the current administration.

The statement thanked Washington for continuing its policy of regularized arms sales to Taiwan and supporting the island in enhancing its defense capabilities.

The deal, expected to take effect within a month, will help maintain the air force’s fighter readiness and bolster air defenses, strengthen resilience, and enhance the nation’s ability to respond to China’s “gray-zone” incursions, Taiwan’s defense ministry said.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island.

Taiwan’s government strongly refutes Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

A U.S.-made F-16V fighter jet taxis on the runway at an air force base during Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military drills in Hualien on July 23, 2024. Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images

Trump said in August that Xi told him he would not invade Taiwan while the Republican leader remains in office.

He made the comments in an interview with Fox News, ahead of a planned talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Russia–Ukraine war.

“I don’t believe there’s any way it’s going to happen as long as I’m here,” Trump said of a potential invasion of the island nation.

“He told me, ‘I will never do it as long as you’re president,’” Trump said, regarding Xi.

“But he also said, ‘But I am very patient, and China is very patient.’”

Trump said he told Xi, “Well, that’s up to you, but it better not happen now.”

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in March that China planned to pursue the “reunification” of Taiwan and would oppose external interference. The CCP has never ruled Taiwan.

Military Exercises

The CCP’s military stages regular exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, which the government in Taipei regards as a way of putting pressure on the island, while stopping short of actual combat.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has repeatedly offered to have talks with China, but Beijing has refused, calling him a “separatist.”

The history between China and Taiwan is long and complex. The island nation, with an estimated population of around 23.9 million to China’s 1.4 billion, is known officially as the Republic of China, and most nations only recognize it unofficially.

Taiwan, which uses the official name the Republic of China (ROC) as shown on its citizens’ passports, is the last territory of the republic that also ruled mainland China from 1911 to 1949.

After being defeated by the CCP in 1949 on the mainland, the ROC’s nationalist government, led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to the island of Taiwan, which was returned to China from Japanese occupation in 1945. The Republic of China has remained Taiwan’s official name since then. Meanwhile, the CCP established the communist regime, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), on the mainland in 1949.

Polling in Taiwan consistently shows that the vast majority favors the status quo, with younger people more in favor of declaring full independence from China. In a poll from earlier this year, 82.5 percent of respondents rejected Beijing’s claim that “Taiwan is part of China’s territory.”

It didn’t take long for the words Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela, and chemical weapons to show up in the same US government national security memo. We’ve examined before various possible ‘justifications’ Washington might use for some kind of future military action on Venezuela, or even a full regime change operation.

From Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, Washington is always looking for some kind of casus belli – even if it has to be manufactured – to sell war to the American people. And now we’re quickly in WMD territory at a moment that unprecedented US Naval power is parked off Venezuela’s coast.

“A classified Justice Department brief authorizing strikes on drug-smuggling boats describes fentanyl as a potential chemical weapons threat, according to a House member and another person familiar with the memo,” a Friday Wall Street Journal report says.

It cites a lengthy document by the department’s Office of Legal Counsel, which lays out the legal justification of the Trump administration for continuing military operations in the southern Caribbean with an eye on Venezuela. 

Revelation of the classified memo comes less than 12 hours after US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth late in the day Thursday announced a new major US military campaign, dubbed “Operation Southern Spear,” ordered by President Trump.

“Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and SOUTHCOM, this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people,” the Pentagon chief described. He added “The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it.”

But the chemical weapons angle is unlikely to be very convincing to Congressional leaders, much less the American public:

The main argument in the memo is that President Trump’s designation of drug cartels as foreign terrorists makes them legitimate military targets, asserting that the groups are smuggling drugs to fund deadly and destabilizing actions against the U.S. and its allies, according to lawmakers and others who have read it.

So there are ‘terrorists’ who possess a substance classified as a ‘chemical weapon’. WSJ continues, “The mention of fentanyl is one of many points in the brief, which was drafted over the summer to justify the use of military force against drug traffickers. The legal case for military action doesn’t rest on concerns about chemical-weapons use.”

Still, it’s very questionable whether Venezuela is actually at all involved in the fentanyl trade, as the report notes further:

Venezuela, a base for one of the criminal groups designated as a terrorist organization, has long been a transit route for Colombian cocaine. There is no evidence it produces or traffics fentanyl, which is typically made in Mexico and smuggled over land, experts note.

“It is an incredible stretch,” said Brian Finucane, a former legal adviser to the State Department during the Obama administrations and first Trump administration said of the memo’s warning about fentanyl.

Fentanyl as a “chemical weapon”…

The Center for Disease Control’s (CDC) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has written that “Fentanyl depresses central nervous system (CNS) and respiratory function. Exposure to fentanyl may be fatal.” It has a potency at least 80 times that of morphine.

Going back several years, the single biggest sources of the world’s fentanyl trade have been consistently identified as China and Mexico. At this point it’s impossible to know, and hasn’t been disclosed, whether any of the some 20 boats blown up by US military action off Latin America since September have been loaded with fentanyl, or in what quantities. 

Authored by Cynthia Cai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Waymo has launched driverless robotaxi rides on freeways in the United States, a first in the country for autonomous ride-hailing services.

In a Nov. 12 announcement, the Alphabet-owned company said it will provide some riders with routes that include freeways in California’s San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles as well as in Phoenix, Arizona.

The expansion will also include curbside service at San Jose Mineta International Airport. The company is still in the testing phase at San Francisco International Airport.

Users need to opt in to Waymo’s new services and features through the app to be able to try this kind of trip.

“The open road symbolizes freedom and unlimited possibility—highlighted especially by the ease and speed by which freeways allow us to get where we’re going,” the company said in the announcement.

Waymo has been rapidly expanding its autonomous ride-hailing services domestically and abroad. Earlier this month, it announced plans to launch robotaxi services in San Diego, Detroit, and Las Vegas.

London is also slated to welcome these fully driverless vehicles to its streets in 2026 as a pilot project.

“Over the coming months, we’ll lay the groundwork for our service in collaboration with our fleet operations partner Moove, and continue to engage with local and national leaders to secure the necessary permissions for our commercial ride-hailing service in London,” Waymo said.

In April this year, Waymo brought its vehicles to Tokyo, where the company began adapting its technology and operations to the busy roads of Japan’s capital city.

Waymo isn’t the only company aiming to bring autonomous ride-hailing to the public, as Tesla recently launched limited self-driving cab services in Austin, Texas. However, with Tesla rides, a human safety operator sits in the front passenger or driver’s seat. Most Waymo cabs are unmanned.

Tesla’s website says its Robotaxi fleet is currently invite-only and consists of Model Y vehicles, and riders are required to stay out of the driver’s seat.

Earlier this year, California greenlit Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing services for limited operation in pre-arranged trips available to company employees. Tesla obtained a charter-party carrier permit, which allows the company to work towards expanding its service to members of the public, the California Department of Motor Vehicles stated in March.

Tesla’s self-driving technology relies on exterior cameras for 360-degree visibility and artificial intelligence (AI) to navigate roads. Its AI system works to identify objects on the road and maintain speed to keep up with traffic conditions.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s autonomous technology uses a combination of lidar, cameras, radar, and computing to create a 3D picture of the car’s surroundings for the Waymo Driver system to make decisions while on the road.

Over the years, Waymo has faced obstacles while trying to make autonomous ride-hailing widely available.

In 2024, the company temporarily paused expansion plans in California after public officials in San Mateo and Los Angeles counties raised concerns about Waymo cars potentially stalling and causing public safety issues by blocking firefighters and police.

The U.S. Department of Transportation in 2024 probed Waymo’s autonomous driving system following reports of crashes and violations of traffic safety laws.

These cars have also been the target of vandalism. A mob surrounded, smashed, and set on fire a stopped car in San Francisco during Lunar New Year celebrations last year.

Similarly, protesters destroyed several Waymo vehicles during riots in Los Angeles earlier this year. Videos and photos showed rioters calling for the vehicles on apps. When the cars arrived, rioters sprayed graffiti, tore the cars apart, and set them ablaze.

The Mountain View, California-based company currently has over 1,500 cars in its fleet spread across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, with the goal of building 2,000 more fully autonomous I-PACE vehicles through next year.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth late in the day Thursday announced a new major US military campaign, dubbed “Operation Southern Spear,” which he said was ordered by President Trump at a moment of unprecedented build-up of naval assets and troops in the southern Caribbean.

“President Trump ordered action – and the Department of War is delivering,” Hegseth began in his message on X. “Today, I’m announcing Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR.”

The message was not accompanied by any additional escalation or military action against Venezuela, other than the drone boat strikes of late which have become typical. Some 21 alleged drug boats have been blown out of the water off Latin America in operations stretching back to September.

“Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and SOUTHCOM, this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people,” the Pentagon chief described. He added “The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it.”

Simultaneously in its own post on social media, SOUTHCOM announced that the US Marines were conducting artillery training onboard the USS Iwo Jima in the Caribbean in support of the commander-in-chief’s “priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland.”

The USS Iwo Jima is the type of amphibious assault ship which could theoretically land on Venezuela’s coast and deliver troops, though this is unlikely at this stage. Any Trump-ordered assault would likely stay at the level of aerial strikes on land targets.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday rejected criticism of US attacks on narco-vessels from G-7 allies. He emphasized that Europeans will not dictate how Washington chooses to defend US national security.

“I don’t think that the European Union gets to determine what international law is, and what they certainly don’t get to determine is how the United States defends its national security,” he told a reporter while fielding a question. “The United States is under attack from organized criminal narco-terrorists in our hemisphere, and the President is responding in the defense of our country.”

#Readiness:
A U.S. Marine with @22nd_MEU conducts battery training aboard USS Iwo Jima. U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of the #SOUTHCOM mission, @DeptofWar-directed operations, and @POTUS‘ priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect… pic.twitter.com/kLaxdHcNKq

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) November 13, 2025

“I do find it interesting that all of these countries want us to send and supply, for example, nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles to defend Europe, but when the United States positions aircraft carriers in our hemisphere where we live, somehow that’s a problem,” Rubio added.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a recent interview that the department found that 500,000 people are registered twice for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, while more than 5,000 deceased people have also been receiving the benefits.

In an interview on Nov. 12 with Fox News, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said that SNAP is one of the “most corrupt, dysfunctional programs” in U.S. history, adding that 80 percent of people using the program are able to work.

After an investigation, the secretary said that 5,000 dead people were getting SNAP, while another 500,000 people were getting SNAP twice under the same name.

“They choose not to work because taxpayers are footing the bill,” she added, saying that “very big announcements” will be coming in the next week.

Her comment was made as SNAP benefits, known as food stamps, saw setbacks and legal wrangling during the government shutdown that was ended on Wednesday evening.

Rollins also suggested that if some SNAP benefits are cut off, more illegal immigrants will self-deport, which she said would change the outcome of the Census.

Earlier in the month, as SNAP benefits were suspended, Rollins described “massive fraud” in the system, noting that the fraud was discovered only in states that had cooperated with a prior investigation. She said that 21 states refused to hand over their SNAP data to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which was established by the Trump administration earlier this year.

After the shutdown ended, the USDA, which runs the program, issued new guidance on Nov. 13 saying that “state agencies must take immediate steps to ensure households receive their full November allotments promptly.”

“The reduction in maximum allotments for November is no longer in effect,” it added.

“State agencies should immediately resume issuing combined allotments for November and December for newly certified applicants who apply after the 15th of the month.”

Officials with USDA said that because households that receive SNAP didn’t get a full month of benefits and saw uncertainty, the department sent instructions to states “to not issue countable months for time limited participants for November 2025” and that states “should resume normal procedures for countable months beginning in December 2025.”

The federal food program is used by about 42 million people, or around one in eight Americans, namely in lower-income households. They receive an average of $190 monthly per person.

In some states where SNAP recipients received nothing in November, officials said they are working to load money onto people’s electronic benefit cards by Friday, if not sooner.

The Arkansas Department of Human Services said on Nov. 13 that full November SNAP benefits are expected to be available at midnight for people to buy groceries.

“This has been difficult for our beneficiaries, and we are incredibly appreciative to our partners across the state who helped bridge the gap through food pantries, donation drives, and other assistance efforts,” Department Secretary Janet Mann said in a statement.

Officials in West Virginia, which also had not issued November benefits, said the full monthly amount should be available by Nov. 14. And Alabama said full SNAP benefits should be issued on Nov. 13.

The shutdown ended as President Donald Trump signed a continuing resolution to fund the federal government until late January, coming after the Senate and House passed a funding package.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Nov. 13 that it has finalized a rule rescinding Biden-era restrictions on oil and gas drilling in Alaska as part of efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security.

The new rule, to be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 17, will revoke the measures imposed by the Biden administration that restricted drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve on the North Slope, according to the Interior Department (DOI).

The petroleum reserve in Alaska, spanning roughly 23 million acres, was designated in 1923. Last year, the Biden administration restricted oil and gas drilling on over 13 million acres of the area for environmental reasons.

The DOI stated that it aims to restore drilling in the area to strengthen energy supply and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign sources, following President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that called for the expansion of natural resource development across federal and state lands in Alaska.

“By rescinding the 2024 rule, we are following the direction set by President Trump to unlock Alaska’s energy potential, create jobs for North Slope communities and strengthen American energy security,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a Nov. 13 statement.

“This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation.”

Voice of the Arctic Inupiat, a nonprofit representing North Slope communities in Alaska, said it supports the move, noting that it would help sustain power generation, education, and other services that rely on tax revenue from resource development infrastructure.

North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak also voiced support, calling the move a “meaningful step toward restoring a federal process” that respects local leadership in Alaska.

“Good policy comes from good process, which requires hearing directly from the people who live, work, and hunt here,” Patkotak said in a statement issued by the nonprofit.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) opposed the move, claiming the DOI’s new rule disregards its obligation to protect the reserve.

“This rollback is nothing more than a giveaway to the oil and gas industry,” Bobby McEnaney, NRDC director of land conservation, said in a statement.

“Weakening protections is reckless, and it threatens to erase the very landscapes Congress sought to safeguard.”

This is not the first such Biden-era restriction that Trump has rolled back. Last month, the DOI announced that it would reopen the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing and reissued permits for the 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which would allow access to cooper and cobalt deposits in the area.

Democratic political operatives initiated a coordinated propaganda attack centered on releasing Jeffrey Epstein’s emails and promoting a range of narratives targeting President Trump, including claims that he and Epstein shared a Thanksgiving dinner in 2017. The Trump team has since responded, with the Department of Justice and the FBI set to begin investigations into “Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, and Reid Hoffman.”

Let’s begin here: The email dump occurred on the same day Trump signed legislation ending the record-long government shutdown, a shutdown driven by the Democratic Party’s decision to hold government funding hostage, triggering nationwide travel disruptions and SNAP funding outages.

This is a lie.

You’re spreading Fake News to distract from the fact that you left 80,000 Illinoisians without a paycheck and nearly 2 million without food.

You’re using the words of a dead pedophile to build your fake story.

You’re sick. https://t.co/VYfpPvUk1w

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 14, 2025

pic.twitter.com/IY1c90RSFw

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 14, 2025

What’s clear is that the Democratic Party staked heavily on the Jeffrey Epstein email narrative. Bloomberg data shows that headlines mentioning “Epstein” were minimal throughout the shutdown, but as soon as Trump signed the bill to reopen the government, putting Democrats in a very unfavorable position and creating terrible optics in the news cycle, their propaganda cannon was fired. 

Western Journal’s C. Douglas Golden describes the Democratic Party’s maneuvering to control the news cycle after the government shutdown’s damaging optics, highlighting how they cherry-picked Epstein emails to redirect attention.

On Wednesday, Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released three of Epstein’s emails, which mentioned President Donald Trump in some vague way.

They redacted the name of one of his victims, who is said to be Virginia Giuffre; now deceased, the woman at the center of the scandal involving the former Prince Andrew was formerly employed at Mar-a-Lago but had repeatedly avouched, during her life, that she never witnessed Trump at any events where misbehavior was going on.

Later on Wednesday, the GOP members of the Oversight Committee decided to call foul on the cherry-picking and released over 20,000 pages of documents that paint a fuller picture of what’s long been known: Trump and Epstein knew each other and broke in the early 2000s. The unredacted documents also seem to confirm the redacted victim was Giuffre.

Democrats, of course, were not happy. But the party had a new theory: OK, maybe the person in the email consistently stated that Trump didn’t do anything wrong, but what about the fact that Epstein said he spent Thanksgiving of 2017 with Trump?

In a post on X, they said that’s exactly what the “[d]ocuments show,” noting that, “At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender.”

. . .

And, as conservative operative Greg Price noted, it wasn’t verified “because it’s an easily disprovable lie and the attempts to connect President Trump to Epstein’s crimes are a giant hoax.”

. . .

The post has since been deleted, since the Democrats figured out the smoking gun turned out to be an exploding cigar. But the internet is forever, as is evidence of what Trump was doing on Thanksgiving in 2017:

One of the claims – now a deleted X post, the Democratic Party’s official account stated, “NEW: Documents show Donald Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017. At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender.” 

Now deleted post. 

For very obvious reasons. 

What’s clear is that the info war launched by Democrats was intended to paper over the terrible optics surrounding the government shutdown.

However, the pendulum is now swinging the other way… 

Trump has asked Bondi, DoJ, and FBI to investigate “investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him.” 

“Fatty at LinkedIn, Reid Hoffman” 

“This is another Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, with all arrows pointing to the Democrats,” the president noted. 

It appears the Democratic Party’s social media desk, likely staffed by inexperienced Gen-Z operatives, didn’t bother to verify anything. However, competence was never the point; the objective was to plant a headline and let it do maximum damage before anyone could check the facts. That’s the nature of information warfare. And now it looks like the Trump team is preparing to hit back.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the past two weeks, we’ve addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasn’t the recession arrived? In “Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?” we examined the cracks forming beneath the economy’s surface. From deteriorating leading indicators to credit stress and cooling employment metrics, the evidence supported a cautious stance. In the follow-up, “Promised Recession … So Where Is It?”, we explored the tension between these bearish signals and the market’s resilience. Economic risk has not disappeared, but the timeline for a downturn has stretched further than most expected.

Both articles’ tone was analytical but precise: the economy has not escaped danger. Leading economic indicators flash warning signs, from the Conference Board’s LEI to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Credit conditions remain tight with delinquencies on the rise, and employment trends, while stable on the surface, have started to weaken in rate-sensitive areas.

The consumer, long the backbone of the post-pandemic recovery, shows signs of fatigue. Excess savings have dwindled, credit card usage is climbing, and real wage gains have slowed. These are not signals of strength, but of late-cycle fragility.

Yet, despite these risks, the economy has not broken. The recession expected by most economists, strategists, and market commentators has yet to arrive. The S&P 500 continues to grind higher. Volatility remains muted. Consumer spending, while uneven, has not collapsed. And corporate earnings, though pressured in some sectors, have not cratered.

This divergence between bearish data and market behavior raises an important question: could the consensus be wrong? More specifically, what if the economy is not headed for contraction, but toward a renewed phase of expansion? That’s the contrarian view, an economic reacceleration, and it’s worth considering, not because it is guaranteed, but because few are prepared for it. In markets, surprises matter more than forecasts. If the surprise is upside growth, the implications for asset prices, portfolio strategy, and risk management could be substantial.

Let’s dig into it.

The Case for Economic Reacceleration

While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.

First, financial conditions have eased substantially since late last year. Despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates, markets have pushed bond yields lower and credit spreads tighter. Equities have rallied, creating a wealth effect that supports consumption, at least within the top 10% of the population that owns 87% of the equity market. Furthermore, the top 40% of income earners currently account for 60% of total consumption.

Adding to that backdrop, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index has turned increasingly accommodative, suggesting that monetary policy’s grip on the economy is slipping. This eases the burden on consumers and businesses, setting the stage for renewed activity.

Third, fiscal support remains more robust than many acknowledge. Federal spending continues at a high level, with infrastructure outlays and industrial policy subsidies supporting investment in energy, manufacturing, and technology. These initiatives feed directly into corporate capital expenditures. The AI investment boom is a clear example of spending accelerating not just in “big tech,” but across the industrial supply chain. UBS has flagged this emerging capex cycle as a significant tailwind for mid-cycle expansion, which could offset a slowdown in consumer spending.

Fourth, labor market dynamics are more stable than the headlines suggest. While job openings have declined, layoffs remain low. Real disposable income has started to recover, supported by moderating inflation. This income stability allows consumers to maintain spending despite rising debt levels. Goldman Sachs has emphasized that consumption trends, particularly in services, remain strong enough to support growth in the near term. In the economically weighted ISM surveys, services (70% of the economy) are keeping the composite index in expansion territory.

Finally, there is the issue of data distortion. In recent months, significant revisions have been made to payrolls and GDP. Preliminary reports painted a picture of sharp deceleration, only for final data to show much more resilience. Goldman has warned that headline data may be underestimating actual activity. If that’s true, the economy may not need to rebound; it may already be stronger than it appears. We also see improvement in the Economic Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 data points, including manufacturing, services, leading indicators, and other economic factors.

Combined, these factors do not guarantee a reacceleration but offer a plausible case. They suggest the economy may be more resilient, supported, and responsive to easing conditions than the bearish narrative implies.

Supporting the Bull Market: Earnings and Valuation

If reacceleration gains traction, it becomes a fundamental driver of earnings growth. That’s the critical link. The equity rally has run ahead of fundamentals in some sectors. Valuations, particularly in technology and discretionary names, are stretched. Without earnings growth, they cannot be sustained. However, an economic reacceleration changes that dynamic. A pickup in nominal GDP would lift revenues. Stabilizing costs and improving operating leverage could support margins. As top-line growth returns, analysts would raise forward earnings estimates.

As UBS notes, they expect stronger earnings growth going into 2026, supported by stronger economic growth.

This path is especially relevant given the current market structure. Much of this year’s performance has been driven by a handful of mega-cap names; therefore, a broader earnings recovery, driven by an economic reacceleration, would allow the rally to widen. This is the theory, at least, and as breadth improves, volatility drops, and price-to-earnings multiples become more sustainable.

However, as we have noted previously, we had booming economic growth in 2020 and 2021, but the earnings growth remained confined to the largest companies. As shown in the chart above, earnings growth for the 493 remained weak. However, the expectation is that an improvement in economic growth, but not strong growth, will somehow allow the bottom 493 stocks to generate earnings growth as the Capex cycle for artificial intelligence engages. Maybe that is the case, but it remains a risk to investors. Nonetheless, the hope is that the economic reacceleration thesis, not a call for explosive expansion, will allow for durability in the current cycle, allowing the earnings tailwind to extend the bull market further than most expect.

Final Thoughts

For us, risk management remains essential. The case for economic reacceleration is certainly plausible, but it is also based on much “hope.” Hope that consumers will continue to consume at a strong pace, that AI Capex will offset declining savings risk, and that earnings will continue to sustain themselves well above long-term growth trends indefinitely to support current valuations. That seems to be a significant risk.

While there is certainly risk that “hopes” are disappointed, as investors, we must consider the possibility that an economic reacceleration comes to fruition. Such could leave overly defensive investors underexposed to equities, creating significant opportunity costs. Currently, many investors remain positioned for stagnation or slow deterioration. While that positioning aligns with the data, the yield curve, and historical patterns, the markets rarely reward consensus thinking. If reacceleration unfolds, it will catch many investors with an underweighted risk exposure.

Positioning for this shift does not require full conviction. But it does require readiness. Watch leading indicators for signs of stabilization. Monitor earnings revisions and forward guidance. Track credit spreads and yield curve behavior. These are the tells.

The opportunity lies in being early but not reckless. If growth is turning, earnings will follow, and earnings ultimately sustain bull markets.

Just something to consider.

Parts of the Novovoronezh nuclear power plant in southwestern Russia were temporarily taken offline overnight after a cross-border drone attack from Ukraine, in a highly dangerous close-call for the nuclear site and its operators. 

By morning, power was restored to all sections of the plant, head of the state nuclear agency Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, said. He described that about eight drones targeted the facility but all were intercepted; however, debris from a downed drone reportedly damaged the site.

“Approximately eight drones were directed – there is no doubt about this – toward the Novovoronezh nuclear power plant,” Likhachev said. “All of them were neutralized and shot down. However, debris fell and damaged the main switchgear.”

The senior official then said a “preventative measure” was taken to disconnect three power units to the facility, but everything was brought back online by Thursday morning.

Ukraine has not acknowledged the accusation of targeting the Novovoronezh facility. But the timing is interesting given the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director Rafael Grossi is currently visiting Russia to meet with Likhachev.

The visit is to discuss and monitor the current situation of nuclear power plants on either side of the crisis, as both Russia and Ukraine have at times accused the other of targeting them.

Currently, Russia holds the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, which is said to be is cold shutdown mode as a safety measure.

Meanwhile both sides continue to trade drones and missiles, with energy sites being a foremost target of the conflict. From Russia’s point of view, it the attacks on oil refineries and transit sites which remains most alarming:

Oil deliveries to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended after Ukrainian strikes damaged key energy infrastructure in one of the most disruptive overnight attacks on the Krasnodar region in recent months, Reuters reported Friday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.

Russia’s state pipeline monopoly Transneft halted crude flows into Novorossiysk, according to two sources cited by the news agency, while the port also stopped receiving and loading oil following the attack.

After many months of similar headlines related to other facilities, it’s being widely reported that some 20% of oil refining is currently offline. 

🚨 Russia’s Rosatom chief meets with IAEA head over Zaporozhye nuclear plant

Alexey Likhachev and Rafael Grossi are holding talks in Russia’s Kaliningrad

The goal: discuss how to jointly prevent nuclear accidents at the Zaporozhye power plant amid RECKLESS Ukraine’s attacks pic.twitter.com/VdOqfXejkJ

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 14, 2025

However, this appears to have had limited effect so far, given the “disruption cut output by only 3-6% as Moscow relied on idle units to absorb the damage, Russian industry sources told Reuters.”

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem handed out $10,000 bonus checks on Nov. 13 to thousands of frontline Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers who stayed on the job during the federal government shutdown.

About 47,000 agents who worked through the 43-day shutdown despite not getting paychecks will be awarded a bonus along with back pay, according to Noem.

“We are going to not only continue their paychecks like they should have received all along, but also they’re going to get a bonus check for stepping up, taking on extra shifts, for showing up each and every day, for serving the American people,” Noem said at a news conference at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

The officers were thanked for taking seriously every day the mission of the Department of Homeland Security, “and that’s keeping the American people safe while they go and commute across the country, and while they do their work and business and take care of their families,” Noem added.

A couple of the officers were singled out for their “exemplary” service and for taking on more hours and shifts during the shutdown.

“They were examples to the rest of the individuals that worked with them, and endured those hardships and continued to shine a light on what is special about America,” Noem said.

Noem added that she would be looking at all TSA officials who worked during the shutdown and would recognize their efforts with a bonus check to get them back on their feet.

She noted that TSA agents who missed work or called out sick were not necessarily exempt from receiving the bonus, saying that “people were not just inconvenienced but they were also damaged and harmed” by the government shutdown.

“What I’m so proud of today … is the outstanding patriotism and service of our TSA officers and officials that stepped up every single day,” Noem said.

She also recognized the public and private companies that stepped up during the shutdown.

“We still saw the best of America,” she added. “We saw people come together, support each other, take care of each other, and go above and beyond to make sure the mission of the Department of Homeland Security was fulfilled.”

The department worked late Wednesday night to complete administrative paperwork to start paying TSA agents the backpay they earned during the shutdown, Noem added.

TSA Precheck entry at San Diego International Airport on Oct. 26, 2024. Jane Yang/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump Wednesday night signed a bill passed by Congress to fund the government until January, bringing an end to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The Trump administration has implemented measures this year to help speed up TSA lanes in airports, including allowing passengers to leave their shoes on when going through the scanners.

The department also plans to implement veteran, military, and family lanes, according to Noem.