Authored by Matt Lamb via TheCollegeFix.com,

President Donald Trump doubled down on his support for flooding the country with 600,000 students from Communist China as a way to prop up colleges and universities.

Fox News host Laura Ingraham pressed Trump on his proposal, questioning whether it was in America’s interest to bring in so many Chinese students. The U.S. currently accepts around 300,000 Chinese students per year.

“We do have a lot of people coming in from China. We always have, China and other countries,” Trump said on Monday.

“We also have a massive system of colleges and universities. And if we were to cut that in half, which perhaps makes some people happy, you would have half the colleges in the United States would go out of business.”

He later reiterated that reducing Chinese student visas would “destroy our entire university and college system.”

However, the truth is that Chinese college students are clustered in big cities and at major elite universities that have plenty of American students clamoring to get admitted. But they are competing in some cases with wealthy foreigners who can pay higher tuition and also pay more for rent, pricing out Americans. University of Illinois Urbana Champaign is first supposed to be for Illinois students, and then for Midwestern agricultural students, and then for the country, and then for the world. But it might be better these days to apply for UIUC if you’re from Peking than Peoria.

Trump also does not explain why we need to let in foreign Chinese students who do not share our culture and are likely to return home with their engineering and computer science degrees to work for American competitors. These students do so after undercutting American wages through the “Optional Practical Training” loophole. 

This allows companies to pay lower wages to foreign students in STEM provided they can claim that it is part of their education. “Most foreign students participating in the post-completion science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) OPT extension were from India (48.0%) or China (20.4 %) with 165,524 foreign students participating in STEM OPT in 2024,” Homeland Security reported.

If any foreign student is the same as another one in terms of paying tuition, we should be recruiting from countries that share our culture, like England, France, Poland, and Germany. From a foreign relations standpoint, we could also be increasing the number of high-qualified students from our neighbors Mexico and Canada.

Experts have also raised concerns about Trump’s proposal.

“Taking away spots in schools from Americans and giving them to future Chinese Communists is wrong, and admitting students who have been weaponized by the CCP to commit acts of espionage is extraordinarily dangerous,” China expert Gordon Chang told Fox News.

“American presidents for decades have allowed China’s regime to maintain in our country organizations and extensive networks of agents and diplomats that surveil, intimidate, and coerce Chinese and other students.”

Others have previously warned about the consequences of letting in more Chinese students.

“The CCP leverages Chinese students to steal American research and exploits our open education system to censor Chinese nationals on U.S. soil,” Michael Sobolik previously told The Fix.

“Universities are complicit in this because they depend on international student tuition rates,” the Hudson Institute expert said.

“Policymakers shouldn’t continue a status quo that favors our enemy and leaves our universities exposed to espionage.”

Tucker Carlson has just released a deep dive into Donald Trump’s attempted assassin, Thomas Crooks – who both the Biden and the Trump FBI have been very quiet about since the July 13, 2024 shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania. 

In late September, Carlson’s team received an anonymous tip from someone who said they had gained access to some of Crooks’ online accounts, which he found using ‘tools commonly used by private investigators’ after obtaining Crooks’ phone number and gmail address from public documents. He then traced that to two encrypted foreign email accounts (bcook[at]mailfence.com and americangamer[at]gmx.com). He also had a snapchat account, a Venmo, Zelle and PayPal account among several others. 

“It turns out that Crooks was hardly an online ghost,” Carlson reports. “And yet, federal investigators lied and told us there was no trace of him online.”

The source was able to obtain all materials from Crooks’ deactivated YouTube account – which includes his search history, watch history, and 737 public comments. 

When Carlson’s team asked the FBI why they hadn’t shared this information with the public, the agency replied by asking if they could verify the authenticity of the shooter’s account. 

What did Crooks say?

The comments by Crooks were posted between 2019 and 2020, when he was between 15 and 17-years-old. “They show two things,” Carlson explains. “First, that Thomas Crooks was not some secretive lone wolf who never warned anyone that he was planning on violence. Just the opposite. Years before he showed up in Butler, Crooks was leaving a detailed digital trail of violent threats – including calls for assassinations and political violence. Second – they show a man who started out as a radical Trump supporter, whose views on the President transformed – changed completely, during Covid. The FBI lied about that fact, and that Crooks was a right-winger.”

Pro-Trump: 

On July 19, 2019 Crooks writes: “Ilhan Omar and others are invaders and should honestly be killed and their dead bodies sent back.”

On July 20, 2018, Crooks writes: “If youre saying trump is a bad president you arent a patriot as trump is the literal definition of Patriotism”

Seven hours after that comment, Crooks writes: “I hope a quick painful death to all the deplorable immigrants and anti-trump congresswoman who dont deserve anything this countru [sic] has given them”

Later that evening he wrote: “Everyone of the Trump hat-ing democrats deserve to have their heads chopped of and put on steaks for the world to see what happens when you fuck with America“

These types of comments continued for months, “and became increasingly violent.” 

“If any of the democratic candidates win. They wont be in there for long. Because unlike the dems we have guns and lots of them“

He also quoted Mao – writing “The only real political power comes from the barrel of a gun.” 

The Change:

In early 2020 as the pandemic shifted into the headlines, crooks “radically” changed – writing of “trumps stupidity.” 

He then began to mock the idea of the deep state – writing that “The deep state is simply made up of anybody who dis-agrees with the right wing. Conversation over.” 

In Feb. 2020, Crooks called out Trump supporters as “brainwashed,” and a “cult.”

Later that day, Crooks called Trump a racist. 

And in April 2020 when the COVID panic was in full swing, Crooks became pro-lockdown, writing “It seems that you people don’t understand that sometimes Public safety comes before your Personnel rights.” 

He then wrote: “…going to a chinese new years party in america isn’t putting you at risk for corona virus because believe it or not viruses don’t spread through race like Tucker Carlson probably told you.” 

In May of 2020, Crooks called Republican concerns over voter fraud “ignorant.” 

He then wrote a comment that sounded like a “digital manifesto,” Carlson reports. 

“they only way to fight the gov is with terror-ism style attacks, sneak a bomb into an essential building a set it off before anyone sees you, track down any important people/politicians/military leaders etc and try to asasinate them. Any sort of head fight is suicide and even ambush/surprise attacks likely aren’t going to end well.”

The Agitator

Then – a YouTube user @Willy_Tepes began seemingly encouraging Crooks… writing “If a gun and a badge is all that is needed, then authority obviously comes from the barrel of a gun. We have more guns than they do ;)” 

“We have nothing to lose and everything to win,…..and the alternative, a global police state, is unacceptable!” Tepes continues in another comment. 

Carlson asks who Tepas could be – noting that the FBI hasn’t made any mention of him, but that someone had screenshotted his YouTube page despite the fact that he had very few followers. 

That said, the usernme was used on a foreign Antifa website linked to the Nordic Resistance Movement, which was designated a terrorist organization by the US State Dept. 

Crooks’ online comments mysteriously disappear after his interactions with Tepas, and Carlson notes that Crooks was ‘ripe for recruitment‘ by someone. However his search history was still available:

From early 2019 to mid-2020, “Crooks searched for Trump more than 700 times online,” and searched for “Jack Ruby” , “Best places for mass shooting.” , and how to make various explosives and devices for mass killings. He also searched for “Sniper in Dallas shooting” , “American Nazi Party” , “German National Anthem 1933-1945,” and “Hitler’s speeches with subtitles.” 

FBI Coverup? 

“Why is the FBI keeping Crooks’ views a secret?” asks Carlson, adding “Why are they ignoring Congressional subpoenas to divulge information?”

“So here you have a volatile, troubled, possibly mentally ill young man with a long record of espousing violence in public,” Carlson continues. “The FBI clearly knew he existed. And then you have at the very end of his years commenting in public, espousing violence, an exchange with a mysterious figure affiliated with a group that we know is being monitored by the US State Department.” 

Turns out that around the same time as Thomas Crooks was making assertions and posting overt threats of violent against public figures on YouTube, the FBI was issuing contracts to private sector tech surveillance firms to harness the power of mass data collection tools to monitor social media for people just like Thomas Crooks,” Tucker continues. “It’s hard to imagine that Thomas Crooks is making these posts publicly and in his own name, and had not been identified and looked at closely by federal law enforcement. In fact, it’s impossible to imagine.” 

“We know that the FBI had access to these YouTube comments.”

Yet, “they used a selective read of those comments to lie about what Thomas Crooks was saying.“

Two and a half weeks after the attack, a ‘source familiar with the investigation’ told CNN that “Federal investigators are looking into a YouTube account possibly connected to Crooks in which the user espoused political violence as well as antisemitic and anti-immigration themes.“

Carlson says that the FBI “knew full well” that it was Crooks’ account. “There was never any question.” 

Biden’s FBI Deputy Director lied the same day as the CNN report in Congressional testimony, while the NY Post reported in Feb. 2025 that the “FBI has obstructed efforts to solve the mystery of why Thomas Matthew Crooks, who left no manifesto, did what he did.”

Other notable facts: 

• Crooks’ body was cremated on orders from the FBI the same day the House Homeland Security and Oversight Committee began their investigation.

“Can’t do a new tox(icology) screen, because the body doesn’t exist,” Carlson points out. 

• Photos from the day after the shooting “show an FBI agent hosing down the site where Crooks died,” which high-level sources told Carlson was ‘very strange,’ as the FBI ‘usually hires out crime scene cleanup to third-party contractors – but in this case they did it themselves.” 

• Biden FBI officials accessed Crooks’ phone using software from an Israeli firm, Cellebrite, and accessed his phone, computer and his encrypted messaging apps in Belgium, New Zealand and Germany – “yet none of the online activity the FBI discovered was referred to in any way in the final Congressional report.” 

Carlson then notes FBI Director Kash Patel and Assistant Director Dan Bongino’s awkward and evasive answers when asked whether we’ll find out more…

These interviews are from May. Patel and Bongino told us there would be another release from FBI on Butler and that we’re going to know everything they know … here we are in November and crickets.

Where is their release? We don’t know anything close to what they know. https://t.co/xR5rviChxp pic.twitter.com/UzxnuquK54

— JaneDoeUKnow (@MsJaneDoeUKnow) November 14, 2025

More Weirdness

Carlson also points out that Crooks had an unbelievably ‘lucky day’ the day of the shooting, which the FBI is stonewalling the public over. 

For example: 

• Within days of the shooting, the FBI had ‘collected all the relevant surveillance footage,’ which includes footage from local businesses, state police,  and “critically, the gun range where Thomas Crooks trained.” Did he train alone? We don’t know, because to this day the FBI refuses to release the footage.

• Some of Crooks’ comments were erased from the internet archive after the shooting. 

• On the day of the attack, Crooks conducted surveillance at Butler – flying a drone over the rally site for 11 minutes – right as the Secret Service’s anti-drone system was mysteriously down. 

• Police at Butler saw Crooks with a rangefinder and a backpack, identified him as a suspicious person, but ‘quickly lost track’ of him. 

• Crooks climbed onto the only building in the area that did not have a video surveillance system, and was ‘remarkably’ outside the Secret Service’s security perimeter. 

• Two local cops saw crooks but did not report it, while a 3rd police officer who was supposed to be covering the building ‘left early.’

Watch the entire thing below:

Who is Thomas Crooks? pic.twitter.com/WwjvPGGRwS

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 14, 2025

President Trump’s Operation Affordability initiative kicked off this week, with the White House unveiling plans for tariff reductions and expanded trade ties with Latin American countries to boost imports of key food products. The goal: drive down supermarket prices ahead of the 2026 midterm election cycle to reverse darkening sentiment among low- and middle-income consumers.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is set to slash import levies on everyday staples, such as beef, bananas, and coffee, while moving ahead with new trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. 

On Tuesday, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both revealed on corporate media major moves by the administration to reduce costs for Americans when it comes to food. Trump called the effort “surgical and beautiful,” while Bessent said the effort will bring down prices “very quickly” and predicted that “people would start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026.”

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, describe President Trump’s economy as “a big bet on AI and upper-income households.”

Pingle noted the bifurcated consumer environment between higher-income and lower-income households in this chart.

The analyst also pointed out, “Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters.”

He expects a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

He said these “bumper refunds” should temporarily revive household spending in mid-2026, which is just in time for the midterm election cycle.

So Bessent is likely right that consumer sentiment will begin improving in the coming months, and this reversal is crucial. If these sentiment gauges fail to reverse, some folks may be drawn toward the newly transformed Democratic Party, now heavily influenced by Marxist-aligned DSA agenda, who aim to squander America’s inheritance by dangling “free stuff” to voters.

The way to ensure the Marxist revolution stops dead in its tracks is to tackle the affordability crisis, a lingering disaster left over from the Biden-Harris years. 

The New York Times reported that updated “reciprocal tariff” rules will include carve-outs for beef and citrus, expanding on a prior executive order directing agencies to identify products not grown domestically for exemption.

New agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador are reducing tariffs on products like bananas and coffee beans, which the U.S. imports but doesn’t produce domestically. These frameworks should be finalized by the end of the month. 

Operation Affordability will target low- and middle-income households as well as younger voters, including Gen Z and millennials. The administration’s strategy is to improve sentiment and restore affordability, with the hope that these folks will vote “America First”, rather than embrace unhinged left dangling free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, in next year’s midterm elections.

AOC: “We are not the crazy ones…. They want us to think we are crazy. We are sane.”

pic.twitter.com/zch0baKHg6

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 27, 2025

It’s always the ones insisting they’re “not crazy” who end up being the real nutjobs.

Walmart shares moved lower in premarket trading after news that CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026.

Still, he will remain on the Board until the next shareholder meeting and continue advising through 2027. 

McMillon will be replaced by John Furner, 51, currently head of Walmart U.S., who has been with the company for more than 30 years, rising from an hourly associate to senior leadership roles across merchandising, operations, sourcing, Sam’s Club, and international divisions.

John Furner will become Walmart’s CEO on February 1, 2026, succeeding Doug McMillon who will retire January 31, 2026 but stay on the Board through June and as an advisor through January 31, 2027. https://t.co/JFoMW47gzF pic.twitter.com/6MY2yfWmNj

— Walmart News (@WalmartNews) November 14, 2025

McMillon joined Walmart in 1984 as a teenager unloading trucks in a distribution center during the summer. He returned to Walmart in 1990 and rose through the ranks:

• 1990s to 2000s: Merchandising and leadership roles in Walmart U.S.

• 2006 to 2009: President & CEO, Sam’s Club

• 2009 to 2013: President & CEO, Walmart International

• CEO of Walmart (2014–1Q26)

McMillon became Walmart’s fifth CEO in 2014, and its youngest ever at 46. His leadership marked a major turning point for the retail giant, unleashing a full-scale digital overhaul, modernizing the supply chain, and repositioning Walmart for a long-term fight in the e-commerce space against Amazon.

Walmart now retiring CEO Doug McMillon on his reinvention playbook:

(V/@YahooFinance archive) pic.twitter.com/MBfTrKDvxX

— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) November 14, 2025

McMillon wrote in a statement, “Serving as Walmart’s CEO has been a great honor and I’m thankful to our Board and the Walton family for the opportunity. I’m incredibly proud of what our associates accomplished and deeply grateful for their commitment to our customers, to each other and to the communities we serve. Thank you, everyone! I’ve worked with John for more than 20 years. His love for our associates and this company runs deep. His curiosity and digital acumen combined with a deep commitment to our people and culture will enable him to take us to the next level. He’s uniquely capable of leading the company through this next AI-driven transformation. He’s a merchant, an operator, an innovator, and a builder. I know that our future is bright with his leadership.”

Greg Penner, Chairman of Walmart, stated, “John Furner is the right leader to guide Walmart into our next chapter of growth and transformation.” 

Will Walmart get to a trillion-dollar market capitalization before McMillon’s exit? 

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

New York Attorney General Letitia James has a long history of lawfare, pandering to her political base by targeting Donald Trump, the National Rifle Association, and others. Now, she is thrilling her base by promising to go after Condé Nast after the company fired four employees who had a confrontation with Condé Nast Chief People Officer Stan Duncan outside of his office.

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by TheWrap (@thewrap)

As part of the confrontation, the union members demanded to know what the company was doing to stand up to Donald Trump. However, the main objection concerned layoffs.

Some of the layoffs in question were the result of a restructuring of Vogue’s operations, which included a reduction in staff. Teen Vogue is being moved into Vogue.com as part of the change. There were also layoffs at WIRED.

Union activists have objected that the majority of the editorial staffers laid off were women of color or transgender. According to the union, the move exposes “the trend of layoffs at Condé disproportionately impacting marginalized employees.”

Condé Nast is now under fire from the NewsGuild of New York for firing four of the employees involved in the confrontation with the HR chief outside his C-suite office. The Guild claims that the terminations constitute “grossly illegal tactics” and union busting.

However, the company insists that the four caused a disruption and refused repeated requests to leave the office to allow Duncan and others to work.

They will undoubtedly file grievances, but union contracts and federal laws do not give activists the right to disrupt operations anywhere at any time of their choosing.

However, James gave a speech to activists promising to intervene, declaring “When we fight, we win,” and “People, united, will never be defeated,” before suggesting the economy is “rigged against working people.” She added:

“Since when is it illegal for an individual, or individuals, to express, or recognize, their First Amendment rights? Since when is that illegal? When is it illegal to ask a question? When is it illegal to speak truth to power? When is it illegal to get answers from your employer?

To all of those who are responsible for the termination of these individuals, let me introduce myself. My name is Letitia James, otherwise known as Tish, and I am here to let you know that I stand with workers now, and I will stand with workers forever.”

James has learned that it does not matter that her efforts often collapse in court, such as her ridiculous effort to shut down the NRA.

The company has stood firm, stating, “The employment terminations were lawful and based on clear violations of company policies. We have an obligation to protect our workplace from harassment and intimidation. If the Attorney General has concerns, we are happy to respond to her.”

The video shows Bon Appétit digital producer Alma Avalle, a NewsGuild of New York leader and trans activist, confronting Duncan with Wired senior White House reporter Jake Lahut, The New Yorker senior fact-checker Jasper Lo, and Condé Nast Entertainment videographer Ben Dewey.

Notably, the company not only claims that the widely circulated videotape does not depict the most disruptive conduct, but also that it has filed three previous grievances this year with the union regarding such behavior. The company told the National Labor Relations Board that the NewsGuild of New York has carried out “repeated and egregious disregard of our collective bargaining agreement.”

The merits of these claims will have to be hashed out by the NLRB and the parties within the grievance process. However, James’s effort to insert herself into the dispute is bizarre. She is suggesting that somehow her office may target the company for downsizing staff and firing those who allegedly disrupted the workplace.

It is another ratcheting up of rhetoric against companies in New York, adding to what is viewed as an increasingly hostile environment in the city. With the election of a Democratic Socialist as mayor, many executives and residents are reportedly considering possible moves to more supportive jurisdictions.

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

• A U.S. federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI’s motions to dismiss Elon Musk’s antitrust suit.

• The ruling allows X Corp. and xAI’s claims to proceed, with Judge Mark Pittman directing the case toward summary judgment rather than early dismissal.

• The lawsuit targets Apple’s exclusive ChatGPT integration into iOS, alleging it gives OpenAI access to hundreds of millions of iPhone users while blocking competitors like Grok from equal integration opportunities.

A federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI’s motions to dismiss Elon Musk’s antitrust lawsuit Thursday, allowing X Corp. and xAI’s claims of market monopolization to proceed toward trial.

On Thursday, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Pittman rejected both companies’ attempts to dismiss the case, ruling that the allegations warrant further examination through summary judgment. 

“This Order should not be construed as a judgment (or pre-judgment) on the merits of this litigation,” the ruling says.

The lawsuit, filed in August, targets Apple’s June 2024 decision to make ChatGPT the exclusive AI assistant integrated into iOS.

“This is a procedural step. The real impact now is where the facts will actually be tested,” Even Alex Chandra, a partner at IGNOS Law Alliance, told Decrypt. 

The case highlights “an unresolved question globally” about how “default AI integrations on dominant platforms” should be treated under antitrust law, with regulators still defining what the “AI market” even is, Chandra added. 

X Corp. and xAI’s complaint seeks billions in damages, alleging the exclusive arrangement gives ChatGPT access to “hundreds of millions of iPhones” while blocking competitors like xAI’s Grok chatbot. 

The lawsuit claims ChatGPT controls “at least 80 percent” of the generative AI chatbot market while Grok holds only “a few percent” despite superior capabilities.

Musk’s firms also accuse Apple of manipulating App Store rankings to favor ChatGPT while suppressing competitors. Despite Grok ranking second in Apple’s “Productivity” category and X ranking first in “News,” neither appears in the prominent “Must-Have Apps” section, where ChatGPT is featured.

Ishita Sharma, managing partner at Fathom Legal, told Decrypt the case hinges on “evidence of exclusion vs. efficiency,” whether rivals are “truly blocked” from Apple’s iOS or if it’s simply a “competitive partnership in a nascent but fast-moving market.”

The defense will likely argue that “competition remains alive” across platforms and browsers, that the arrangement may not be “strictly exclusive” contractually, and that the integration delivers competitive efficiencies, Sharma added.

Decrypt has reached out to Apple, OpenAI, and X for comment.

Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever, but stepped down from its board in 2018, according to an announcement that said his departure would “eliminate a potential future conflict” as Tesla expanded its own AI work. 

Since then, Musk has accused OpenAI of ditching openness for “a closed, profit-driven arm of Microsoft” and has sued repeatedly, most notably a lawsuit over abandoning its founding mission and a suit filed two months back alleging trade secret theft.

It’s ugly out there. Futs are sharply lower on doubts about whether the Fed will cut interest rates again in December, as fear deepens about stretched AI valuations and the debt used to fund them. S&P 500 futures are down 1% at 8:00 a.m.ET following continued unwind of momentum/AI thematic + hawkish Fed digestion (Kashkari undecided on Dec cut yesterday makes 5 officials now questioning/mkt currently pricing ~50% of Dec cut vs ~66% last Friday; more hawks today Schmid today @ 10:05am, Logan 2:30pm, Bostic 3:20pm); Nasdaq futures plunge 1.6%, pointed to a fourth consecutive day of losses in a week in which aggressively-built long positions in momentum stocks were unwound and value baskets comfortably outperformed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all underperforming: TSLA -2.6%, NVDA -1.1%, META -0.5%. The VIX rose above 22.55, and is at session highs. Bond yields are sharply lower following a huge block of 135,000 10Y futs sold; USD was higher but then repriced sharply lower to LOD just around 7am ET. Commodities are mostly higher: oil +2.6%, sugar +1.6%. Bitcoin sank to a six-month low below $95K. This morning, we have seen a continuation of momentum unwind in the equities markets given valuation and positioning of the AI story; NVDA fell again into it earnings next week.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven all retreated in premarket trading as doubts over an interest-rate cut in December deepened concerns about stretched valuations (Tesla -4.8%, Nvidia -3.1%, Alphabet -2.7%, Amazon -1.6%, Meta -1.5%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.1%)

• AI-related energy stocks are sliding: Bloom Energy -8%, Oklo -7.7%, NuScale Power -8%, Nano Nuclear Energy -7.3%, Plug Power -7.2%, IREN -9%
• Applied Materials (AMAT) declines 6.5%. The chip-equipment maker suffered a sales decline last quarter and predicted another drop in the current period, though the company sees demand improving in the second half of 2026.
• Avadel Pharma (AVDL) jumps 18% after the pharmaceutical company said it received an unsolicited proposal from H. Lundbeck A/S to acquire it for up to $23.00 per ordinary share.
• Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) is up 104% after Merck & Co. agreed to acquire the biotech company, which is developing a flu treatment.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) is up 1.6% after Jefferies upgraded the clothing retailer to buy from hold.
• Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) plunges 17% after the drone company’s FY25 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate.
• Stubhub (STUB) tumbles 19% as analysts note that it was surprising that the ticketing platform did not provide a forecast for the current quarter. It was the firm’s first quarterly report after going public in September.
• TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) is up 0.8% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the online travel agency to neutral from underperform.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up 2.8% after the WSJ reported Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for the media company, citing people familiar. Separately, the owner of HBO and CNN in a filing said CEO David Zaslav’s employment agreement was amended amid a strategic review.

In corporate news, Citigroup’s CEO Jane Fraser says her bank is growing “rapidly” in China with reviving interest from investors and companies in the world’s second largest economy. NBA star Stephen Curry is leaving Under Armour, the sportswear firm that partnered with him for more than a decade. 

One doesn’t need to look at futures to see the signs of growing nervousness, with volatility in bond markets also on the rise. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Thursday he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut, though he’s still undecided on the best course of action for its December policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a cut next month, down from about 63% earlier this week and over 95% a month ago. Just after 7am ET, we saw a purchase of 135K 10Y futs which slammed yields 6bps lower in minutes.

It is not just the US which are volatile this morning: UK government bonds are lower, with larger declines at the long end after reports that Chancellor Reeves dropped plans to raise headline income tax rates. Thirty-year gilt yields rise 10 bps to 5.33%. Gilts found some support after Bloomberg reported Reeves’ decision was driven by an improved fiscal forecast from the budget watchdog.

AI euphoria is facing an acute test, as investors look are finally looking at the massive borrowing to fund the technology’s buildout (something we first warned about over a month ago). Support for the three-year bull market increasingly rests with a strong earnings outlook, and especially next week’s NVDA earnings. Still, foreign inflows into US equity funds are tracking at an annualized $134 billion, the second-biggest year ever after $163 billion in 2024, according to Bank of America citing EPFR Global data. US stocks saw their ninth-straight week of inflows through Nov. 12 at $6.4 billion. Meanwhile, a rotation from tech into more defensive stocks has helped the S&P 500 limit losses to just over 2% since its last record high toward the end of October, while the Nasdaq 100 has dropped nearly twice as much.

“The nervousness is palpable on markets and it stems from different corners,” said Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris. “Any pushback from the Fed on interest rate cuts is bad news. If the Fed hasn’t enough data, they are likely not to cut.”

That said, while the market-cap weighted S&P has faced volatility and a recent downturn, beneath the surface, US equities remain healthy, lifting the equal-weighted index and underscoring the broader market’s reliance on, and concentration risk around, AI according to Bloomberg.

“We’ve seen tech stocks suffer the biggest repercussions each time there’s been a setback, and that’s because they trade at the frothiest valuations,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macro research at Wisdom Tree UK. “Whenever there are question marks on whether there is a higher probability of a hawkish Fed stance, the segments that get hit the most are the highest duration ones.”

In trade news, Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts aimed at tackling high food prices and a series of new trade deals. Meanwhile an agreement with Switzerland could be close. 

European stocks are broadly lower, including in the UK where the FTSE 100 drops 1.4%. UK equities underperformed on reports of a U-turn by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves on income tax hikes. Siemens Energy led energy stocks higher after raising guidance, while banks and tech shares were among the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Bechtle shares surge as much as 17%, the most in eight months, after the supplier of computers and office supplies reported a significant improvement in earnings in the third quarter compared to the second.
• Siemens Energy shares are up as much as 12%, the most since April, after the German energy company raised Ebitda guidance above consensus, citing strong demand for gas turbines and data center equipment.
• Richemont shares gain as much as 8.7%, the steepest advance since April, after the Swiss luxury-goods maker reported first-half results that beat analyst expectations across divisions and regions, particularly driven by strong demand for its jewelry brands.
• Orkla shares gain as much as 6.7%, the most since May, after the Norwegian consumer goods firm reported what DNB Carnegie said were slightly positive earnings.
• Alstom shares advance as much as 7.2%, the most since June, as analysts laud the company’s latest earnings as a reassuring and strong showing from the French rolling stock company.
• Bavarian Nordic shares drop as much as 7.8% to the lowest since July after the Danish vaccine maker’s revenue guidance for the full year was weaker than expected.
• Sonova shares drop as much as 6.1% to the lowest intraday since September 2020 after the Swiss hearing-aid maker reported weaker-than-expected Ebita for the first half-year.
• Swiss Re shares slip as much as 5.1%, the most since April, after posting a “mixed” quarter in the eyes of analysts.
• Goodwin shares drop as much as 12% after the Goodwin family sold 122,368 ordinary shares in the company to a limited number of institutional investors.
• Land Securities shares fall as much as 5% after the UK real estate firm reported lower-than-expected net asset value and dividends.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, led by technology-heavy markets, as concerns over lofty valuations and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook dampened sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.7% on Friday to head for its biggest decline since April. Technology megacaps including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the major drags. South Korea posted the steepest loss in the region, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, Taiwan’s Taiex index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all dropped over 1.5%.  In China, economic activity cooled more than expected at the start of the fourth quarter, with an unprecedented slump in investment and slower growth in industrial output adding to a drag from sluggish consumption. The onshore CSI 300 Index closed 1.6% lower, the most in nearly a month. 

“The market sell off is mainly driven by disappointing macro economic data and increasing concern on leading e-commerce companies profitability,” said Jason Chan, senior investment strategist at Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong. “Also, many cities in Fujian province announced the trade-in subsidy of auto will be suspended in November, which heightens policy uncertainty on consumption stimulus.”

In FX, the BBG Dollar index saw a sudden airpocket led by yield differentials as 10Y yields tumbled 6bps just after 7am ET. The pound pared losses but remains down 0.4%.

In rates, treasuries erased losses in early US trading amid a curve-steepening rout in gilts, where reports that UK government will drop a proposed income tax increase have sparked jitters about its fiscal credibility. US yields retreated from session highs reached during the gilt selloff as US stock index futures slide, led by European equity markets. Front-end Treasury yields are lower by 2bp-3bp with long-end tenors little changed, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads; 10-year, about 2bp lower on the day near 4.10%, peaked near 4.14% as UK 10-year yield surged as much as 13bp. UK yields remain cheaper by 4bp-10bp across a steeper curve after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will drop a widely-expected income-tax increase in this month’s budget. US session includes three scheduled Fed speakers, while economic data continues to be delayed as the US government recuperates from its record-length shutdown.

In commodities, oil prices jump after a drone strike damaged an oil depot and a vessel at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. WTI crude rises 2.6% to near $60.20 a barrel. Gold slips about $9 to $4,162 an ounce, while Bitcoin falls 1.8% to around $97,000.

US economic calendar expected to continue to face delays as government reopens; October retail sales and PPI were scheduled to be released Friday. Fed speaker slate includes Schmid (10:05am), Logan (2:30pm) and Bostic (3:20pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.2%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
• VIX +1.2 points at 21.2
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1217.34
• euro -0.1% at $1.1616
• WTI crude +2.8% at $60.31/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The White House unveiled trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador as part of an initiative to reduce food prices/ address affordability challenges for American consumers. FT
• Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s giant Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, prompting a state of emergency. Moscow launched a massive air strike on Kyiv that killed four and damaged several residential buildings. BBG
• NEC Director Hassett said he expects to see 60k job losses due to the government shutdown, while he responded that the numbers they have are consistent with more rate cuts, when asked about inflation.
• Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into October, with one measure of investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years. Retail sales was about inline at +2.9% (vs. the Street +2.8% and down from +3% in Sept) while industrial production fell short at +4.9% (vs. the Street +5.5% and down from +6.5% in Sept) and fixed asset and property investment declined at one of the sharpest rates in years. WSJ
• Sir Keir Starmer and Reachel Reeves have ditched their manifesto-busting plan to increase income tax rates, in a dramatic U-turn ahead of the Budget on Nov 26 that sparked a sell of in the gilt mkt. FT
• China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10x its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away form the USD, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally. FT
• Brazil hopes to reach a preliminary agreement with the US as soon as this month. India and Canada will work together to secure supply chains in critical minerals and clean energy, signaling a reset in bilateral ties. BBG
• Canada’s forestry industry plans to divert a significant shares of its wood exports from the US to new intl mkts, claiming that Trump’s latest trade tariffs will lead to lumber shortages and drive up building costs in America. FT
• Palantir is planning a “significant investment” in the UK to win military contracts, even as the software company has complained about slow traction in Europe.
• Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery. WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump’s administration is preparing tariff exemptions in a bid to lower food prices, according to NYT
• US Secretary of State Rubio met with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and discussed a reciprocal framework for the US-Brazil trade relationship, according to the State Department
• US senior official said agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala open markets to US agricultural and industrial products, expects full agreements with most of these countries to be finalised within the next two weeks, in which the four countries agreed not to impose digital service taxes. Furthermore, the tariff rates will remain for these countries, but framework agreements will provide relief in certain areas, including bananas.
• US senior official said talks with Switzerland on Thursday were very positive, and if the deal is accepted by US President Trump, we would see a reduction of tariffs on Swiss imports. The official also commented that they have made a lot of advances with Taiwan.
• South Korea announced the factsheet with the US was finalised and President Lee said that US President Trump made a rational decision for the factsheet, while Lee added they agreed that investment in the US will be limited to commercially viable projects and that South Korea and the US will build a new partnership for shipbuilding, AI and the nuclear industry. Lee stated that the sides agreed on South Korea building a nuclear-powered submarine, and South Korea will strengthen ties with companies like NVIDIA.
• South Korean Presidential Adviser said the US will give South Korea chip tariff terms that are no less favourable than Taiwan’s, while it was agreed with the US that forex market stability needs to be ensured and that the amount and timing of fund supply to the US can be adjusted if needed for forex stability.
• White House said the US and South Korea deal includes USD 150bln of Korean investment in the shipbuilding sector approved by the US and USD 200bln of additional Korean investment committed pursuant to an MOU on strategic investments, while the US has given approval for South Korea to build nuclear-powered attack submarines. US said it will reduce its Section 232 sectoral tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, timber, lumber and wood derivatives of South Korea to 15%, and for any Section 232 tariffs imposed on pharmaceuticals, the US intends to apply a tariff rate no greater than 15% to originating goods of South Korea. Furthermore, South Korea is committed to spending USD 25bln on US military equipment purchases by 2030 and shared its plan to provide comprehensive support for US Forces Korea amounting to USD 33bln in accordance with South Korean legal requirements, while the US agreed that South Korea will pay USD 20bln annual phased instalments as part of the trade deal.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off stateside, where tech was hit on valuation and China AI race concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by recent hawkish-leaning Fed rhetoric and mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in tech and with nearly all sectors in the red aside from energy.     Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 51,000 level and was among the worst performers amid earnings results and tech woes. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with participants digested the recent data releases, including mixed activity data in which Industrial Production disappointed and Retail Sales marginally topped estimates, but both showed a slowdown from the previous, while Chinese House Prices continued to contract. Nonetheless, the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned with China pledging to expand domestic demand and stabilise trade.

Top Asian News

• China stats bureau spokesperson said the economy was generally stable in October, but pressure to adjust the domestic economic structure remains high and stabilisation faces some challenges, while China is to improve the effectiveness of macro policies and to pursue higher-quality economic growth. China will also expand domestic demand on all fronts and will further spur private investment vitality. Furthermore, the spokesperson said China’s investment space and potential remain huge and that China will stabilise trade and help trade firms that have been heavily hit.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they are to prepare measures to stabilise the FX market with the pension fund, while he is concerned about increasing uncertainty in the FX market and noted it is necessary to address imbalances in FX supply and demand.
• Chinese Defence Ministry says the Japanese side “will only suffer a crushing defeat” should it dare to take a risk.
• Hong Kong revises its 2025 GDP forecast to 3.2% (prev. 2-3%).
• Japan’s automobile union (JAW) says there are no plans to scale back the wage demand for next year, despite a hit from US tariffs. Wage hikes are key to attaining a demand driven economy.

European Equities – Opened broadly lower, with all major indices in the red as sentiment soured following weakness in APAC trade, where tech underperformed on valuation and China AI concerns. Recent hawkish Fed rhetoric and mixed Chinese data also weighed. UK headlines dominated the morning, with reports that PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves will scrap plans to raise income tax, further pressuring the FTSE 100 (-1.2%). EZ GDP and employment data were largely shrugged off, while attention now turns to ECB’s Buch, Elderson, and Lane. European sectors – Opened mostly lower, with only Energy (+1.0%) and Consumer Products & Services (+0.7%) in positive territory. The latter was lifted by Richemont (+8.0%) after stronger-than-expected H1 revenue and profit, while Energy gained on elevated crude prices following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Novorossiysk oil depot and upbeat results from Siemens Energy (+9.9%), which raised 2026 guidance. Laggards include Technology (-2.7%), Banks (-2.0%), and Basic Resources (-2.0%). Tech mirrored US weakness amid renewed US–China AI race concerns, while softer Chinese industrial output weighed on resources. Banks underperformed on UK political turbulence, with HSBC (-2.8%), Lloyds (-3.4%), and Barclays (-2.8%) all lower.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves reportedly ditched budget plans to increase income tax rates, according to FT. Since, improved UK forecasts reportedly led Chancellor Reeves to drop the Income Tax hike, via Bloomberg citing sources.
• ITV’s Peston posts the UK Chancellor “is NOT going to take greater risks with the public finances, which is what investors quite understandably fear is happening”. Peston, citing sources, writes that the Chancellor will increase the headroom from the GBP 9bln at the last budget to GBP 15bln or more; “that will happen”. Expects Reeves and/or PM Starmer to make it clear today that they will not weaken their commitment to the fiscal rules and increasing headroom. Changes are due to the Treasury receiving improved data on current/expected future wage growth, which has increased tax revenue forecasts; reducing the need to increase tax rates re. Income Tax. New “tax masterplan”: extend the Income Tax threshold increase by another two years; look at reducing the threshold where 40p and 45p tax bands kick in.
• German Budget Committee approved the 2026 budget, which clears the path to parliamentary approval, while the budget has total spending of EUR 524.5bln and includes investments of EUR 58.3bln and borrowing of EUR 97.9bln.
• German 2026 net new borrowing to rise to EUR 98bln (vs. 89.8bln in the draft), via Bloomberg citing a document.
• ECB’s Elderson says he favours easier rules and fewer requirements for small banks.

FX

• USD – DXY is little changed after a subdued overnight session, following yesterday’s weakness when USD-denominated assets came under pressure amid a broader risk-off tone. With the government now reopened, focus shifts to the release of delayed economic data, though no official schedule has been confirmed — one could, however, be announced as early as today. In early European trade, DXY continues to hold within a narrow 99.109–99.336 range, well within Thursday’s 98.991-99.591 range.
• EUR – EUR/USD is trading slightly softer in early European hours after holding onto the prior day’s gains during APAC trade, remaining above the 1.1600 handle amid ongoing dollar pressure. Newsflow for the Eurozone is light, with the pair contained within a 1.1618–1.1648 intraday range and well within yesterday’s 1.1579–1.1656 parameters. The 50DMA and 100DMA sit just above at 1.1660 and 1.1662, respectively.
• GBP – GBP/USD is in focus this session following reports that Chancellor Reeves has scrapped plans for an income tax rate hike, a move seen as increasing fiscal risks ahead of the November 26th budget. Gilts slipped at the open, with the pound underperforming into European trade. Price action later reversed modestly after Bloomberg sources suggested that improved UK forecasts had prompted Reeves to drop the planned tax rise (see Fixed Income section for details). GBP/USD spiked from 1.3121 to 1.3200 on the Bloomberg headlines before easing back toward 1.3150, with trade contained within a 1.3109–1.3200 intraday range and inside yesterday’s broader 1.3100–1.3215 parameters.
• JPY – USD/JPY is struggling for clear direction after recent choppy trade and amid a lack of fresh domestic catalysts, while Japanese press highlights growing scepticism among market participants over the government’s ability to support the yen through direct intervention. The JPY is showing limited reaction to the broader risk-averse tone, with sentiment further dampened by sharp remarks from China’s Defence Ministry, which warned that Japan “will only suffer a crushing defeat” should it “dare to take a risk.” The comments followed Japanese PM Takaichi’s statement that a conflict over Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Tokyo. USD/JPY trades within a 154.32–154.74 intraday range, contained inside yesterday’s 154.13–155.02 parameters.
• Antipodeans – The Antipodeans are mixed with NZD leading gains despite limited fresh catalysts, after the RBNZ confirmed it will proceed with easing mortgage loan-to-value ratio restrictions as previously announced last month. AUD/USD briefly moved above its 100DMA (0.6540) before pulling back, while NZD/USD recovered strongly from yesterday’s losses. The AUD/NZD cross meanwhile slipped from a 1.1558 high to a 1.1487 low.

Fixed Income

• Gilts – A volatile session, with the benchmark plunging from 93.37 to 92.07 at the lows (down 130 ticks) before rebounding to trade around 92.60, still lower by ~77 ticks. Yields briefly spiked to 4.57% (10yr) and 5.37% (30yr). The initial selloff followed FT reports that Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap the manifesto-breaching income tax rate hike, opting instead for threshold cuts and smaller levies — moves seen as undermining fiscal credibility. The reversal prompted renewed concerns over the government’s fiscal stability and added political pressure on PM Starmer. Gilts later pared losses after Bloomberg reported the U-turn was driven by improved UK growth and wage forecasts, lifting the benchmark nearly 50 ticks. ITV’s Peston added that the new plan includes a two-year extension of threshold freezes and lower entry points for the 40p/45p bands, underpinned by stronger wage-driven revenue projections. Despite partial recovery, markets remain uneasy over the handling of communications and credibility risks. The yield swing trimmed the odds of a December BoE cut to under 75% (from ~85% earlier in the week), particularly as higher wage growth reinforces inflation concerns within the MPC’s divided board.
• USTs – Softer in early Europe, with the benchmark slipping to a 112-19 low before stabilising near 112-22, down around 2+ ticks, as US futures found support amid improved chip-sector sentiment. Newsflow was light, with focus on US government bureaus resuming operations and expected to release updated data schedules—potentially as soon as today—setting up a catch-up-heavy week ahead. Attention remains on the December Fed meeting, where markets are split roughly 50/50 on a rate cut, leaving upcoming delayed data pivotal for near-term policy expectations.
• Bunds – Weaker, down around 23 ticks at 128.69, trading between USTs and Gilts in relative terms. The benchmark fell to a 128.63 low (off 29 ticks at worst) after Germany’s defence ministry unveiled its 2026 Bundeswehr funding plan, followed by the Bundestag fiscal committee’s approval of a total package roughly EUR 4bln above the prior figure. Reports indicate net new borrowing for 2026 at EUR 98bln (vs EUR 89.8bln in the draft), explaining Bunds’ mild underperformance versus Treasuries. The full Bundestag vote is scheduled for November 28th.

Commodities

• Crude Oil – Firmer after prices surged in APAC trade on reports of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil depot and Kyiv confirming active air defences amid a large-scale attack. WTI and Brent spiked around USD 2/bbl to peaks of USD 60.65 and USD 64.86, before easing to USD 59.26 and USD 63.56 respectively. Later, the UKMTO reported an incident off UAE’s Khor Fakkan, believed linked to state activity, shortly after Reuters cited sources saying an Iranian force redirected a Talara tanker toward its coast near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a fresh USD 1/bbl uptick. Separately, Sky News Arabia reported the IDF preparing a limited offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
• Precious Metals – Mixed, with XAU unchanged and XAG +1.0%. Spot gold held in a USD 4159–4211/oz range through APAC and early Europe, consolidating after several Fed officials suggested limited scope for further cuts, while Kashkari said he did not support the latest move. The simultaneous drop in equities and gold on Thursday has raised concern that the metal’s safe-haven appeal is fading, with investors noting that gold’s strong correlation with risk aversion — which helped drive it to record highs in recent months — has weakened lately.
• Base Metals – Softer, with 3M LME Copper -0.3%, extending Thursday’s risk-off tone. The red metal held within a USD 10.86k–10.91k/t range through APAC before dipping to a USD 10.83k/t low amid continued caution in broader markets. It has since bounced modestly from session lows as sentiment stabilises.
• US President Trump administration revoked Biden-era limits on Alaska oil drilling.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Talara crude oil tanker taken towards Iranian coast by revolutionary guards based on initial assessment according to Reuters sources.
• Thereafter, UKMTO notes of incident off the coast of UAE’s Khor Fakkan, believed to be state activity; Vessel is transiting towards Iranian territorial waters
• Ukrainian drone attack damages apartment buildings and oil depot in Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. 
• Ukrainian air defence units were engaged in Kyiv against what the mayor described as a massive Russian attack. 
• US Coast Guard detected and monitored a Russian military vessel operating near US territorial waters approximately 15 nautical miles south of Oahu on October 29th, according to the US Coast Guard.
• US senior military officials on Wednesday presented President Trump with updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes, according to sources cited by CBS News.
• US Defense Secretary Hegseth announces Operation Southern Spear to remove narco-terrorists from the Western Hemisphere.
• China summoned Japan’s envoy over Japanese PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan and said the remarks were extremely dangerous.

US Event Calendar

• 10:05 am: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Energy Conference
• 2:30 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 3:20 pm: Fed’s Bostic To Participate in Moderated Conversation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s certainly been a volatile week in terms of sentiment with relief over the end of the shutdown vying with concerns over AI valuations and whether the Fed will cut rates again after several speakers have struck a more cautious tone this week. The S&P 500 (-1.66%) posted its worst day in over a month with a December cut probability falling sharply from around 59% at Wednesday’s close to 49% last night. Standby for a likely deluge of data next week to test this pricing in both directions.   

On those releases, yesterday we heard NEC Director Kevin Hassett say that the September jobs report might get released next week. That release should have come out on October 3, so just a couple of days after the shutdown began, and the data collection for that had already been completed when the shutdown started. Then for the October jobs report (which would have normally been out on November 7), Hasset said on Fox News that “We’re going to get half the employment report. We’ll get the jobs part, but we won’t get the unemployment rate”.

Ahead of those releases, we heard from a few Fed speakers yesterday, who struck a cautious tone on the policy outlook. For instance, San Francisco President Daly said that she had “an open mind” on the decision in December. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said “we’ve got this persistent high inflation that is sticking around”, and that getting inflation “back to 2% is critical for our credibility, and that’s our objective”. St Louis Fed President Musalem (a voter this year) noted that “We need to proceed and tread with caution, because I think there’s limited room for further easing”. And Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that he didn’t support the Fed’s last rate cut in October and that he was undecided on December. So regional Fed presidents not sounding like they are rushing into rate cuts, and futures dialled back the likelihood of a December cut to 49% by the close, down from 59% the previous day.

Clearly, it’s this upcoming wave of data that will help determine whether we actually get a December cut, but there was a clear market reaction to that Fedspeak in the meantime. US equities lost ground across the board, with the S&P 500 (-1.66%) slumping after a run of 4 consecutive gains. The decline was driven by the more cyclical sectors, with the NASDAQ (-2.29%) and the Magnificent 7 (-2.69%) posting even larger declines led by Nvidia (-3.58%) and Tesla (-6.64%). Epitomising yesterday’s struggles for momentum stocks, Robinhood Markets (-8.61%) was the worst performer in the S&P 500 after unveiling a cash delivery service. Still, its shares are up +226% year-to-date. Meanwhile, Walt Disney (-7.75%) was the third worst-performer in the S&P after its Q4 revenue missed estimates. While defensive sectors fared less badly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.18%) also saw its worst day since the US-China trade escalation five weeks ago.

Rising volatility saw the VIX index (+2.49pts) spike back to exactly 20.0 at the close, with many other asset classes also struggling. Bitcoin (-3.08% to $98,756) fell to its lowest level since early May, extending the decline from its early October peak to -21%. Credit spreads widened, with US IG and HY +1bps and +8bps wider respectively. And historical safe havens of gold (-0.57%) and the dollar (-0.34%) weren’t spared either.

This backdrop also weighed on US Treasuries, with yields rising as investors priced in fewer rate cuts. For example, if we look at the December 2026 meeting, investors were pricing in 81bps of cuts by the close, down -1.8bps on the day. So it wasn’t just the next meeting that was being priced in a more hawkish direction. In turn, that pushed yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+2.2bps) moving up to 3.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (+5.0bps) was up to 4.12%. Long-end Treasuries weren’t helped by a softish 30yr auction that saw $25bn of bonds issued +1.0bps above the pre-sale yield, leaving 30yr yields +4.8bps higher on the day. US yields are back down around a basis point across the curve in Asia this morning.
Earlier in Europe, markets followed a very similar direction to the US, with equities and bonds both selling off. In the UK, sentiment wasn’t helped by an underwhelming GDP report, which showed Q3 GDP growth at just +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), whilst the major equity indices lost ground across the continent. So the STOXX 600 (-0.61%) fell back after a 3-day run of gains, with the FTSE 100 (-1.05%) and the DAX (-1.39%) leading the declines. And sovereign bond yields moved consistently higher too, with those on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+3.9bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) all rising.

Here in the UK, sterling is trading -0.39% lower this morning after the FT reported late last night that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have ditched plans to increase income tax rates with the budget announcement on November 26. The politics of breaking a manifesto pledge are seemingly forcing their hands if the story is correct. Gilts have outperformed recently on the expectations of significant tax rises in the budget so this could bring some reversal of that.

Asian markets are weak this morning, following on from the US losses with weak monthly China data also a focus. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-3.51%) is experiencing the most significant losses, followed by the Nikkei (-1.70%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.37%), the Hang Seng (-1.36%), the CSI (-0.81%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%). S&P 500 (+0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.01%) have actually stabilised this morning.

Turning our attention back to China, industrial production increased by +4.3% year-on-year in October, which was below expectations and a decrease from a three-month high of +6.5%, as local manufacturers contend with weak domestic demand and trade tensions with the US. This represents the slowest growth in industrial production since August 2024. Simultaneously, retail sales rose by +2.9% year-on-year in October, surpassing market expectations of +2.7% but down from the 3.0% increase observed in the previous month. In a separate report, new home prices fell by -0.45% month-on-month in October, marking the steepest monthly decline in a year, which underscores the persistently weak demand in the beleaguered property sector which may require additional policy support. This follows a -0.41% decrease in September. September and October are typically peak sales periods.

In the commodities market, Brent crude prices surged above $64 per barrel overnight before retracting some gains to close +1.48% higher, settling at $63.94 per barrel all due to supply concerns following a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil depot in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub. 

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the Euro Area, and the final October CPI reading for France. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic, Elderson and Lane, along with the Fed’s Schmid, Logan and Bostic.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled Nov. 13 that hundreds of illegal immigrants held by ICE in Illinois may be released on bond and ordered the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to assess whether they pose any safety risk to the public.

U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Cummings of the Northern District of Illinois issued the ruling in response to a lawsuit filed by the National Immigrant Justice Center (NIJC) and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Illinois on behalf of people arrested during “Operation Midway Blitz,” a federal immigration enforcement operation targeting illegal immigrants.

More than 3,000 illegal immigrants were arrested between June and October, including those arrested in connection with the operation, according to court documents.

Among them, 615 individuals were not subject to mandatory detention and did not have final removal orders, the ruling states. DHS had argued that all of those detained in the operation fell under mandatory detention.

The judge rejected this argument and ordered DHS to release, by Nov. 21, those individuals from the group of 615 who are still in custody and not deemed a “high public safety risk,” on a $1,500 bond and into ICE’s Alternatives to Detention program.

Their deportation proceedings would be put on hold until the next business day following their release, Jeffrey said.

“Plaintiffs assert that many class members are choosing to voluntarily depart to escape the unsafe and unsanitary conditions that they have been subjected to while in ICE operation,” Jeffrey said in his ruling.

The judge also ordered the department to immediately release 13 individuals who were arrested by ICE in violation of the consent decree during the operation.

Jeffrey noted that DHS must also provide the plaintiffs’ counsel with the names and threat levels of all individuals arrested since June, no later than Nov. 19, according to the ruling.

Mark Fleming, associate director of litigation at NIJC, praised the ruling, saying the judge’s decision will ensure detained illegal immigrants have a fair chance at due process.

“Communities throughout the Chicago area have been traumatized by ICE and other federal agents’ chaotic and violent actions in our neighborhoods in recent months, and potentially hundreds of families already have been permanently separated as a result of unlawful arrests and rapid deportations without due process,” Fleming said in a statement.

The Trump administration has said that Operation Midway Blitz targeted the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants with criminal records, including sexual and gang-related offenses.

In a statement provided to media outlets, DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin condemned the ruling.

“At every turn, activist judges, sanctuary politicians, and violent rioters have actively tried to prevent our law enforcement officers from arresting and removing the worst of the worst,” McLaughlin said. “Now an activist judge is putting the lives of Americans directly at risk by ordering 615 illegal aliens be released into the community.”

Illinois State Police stand guard as people protest in front of the Broadview ICE Detention Facility in Broadview, Ill., on Oct. 11, 2025. NTD

Operation Midway Blitz sparked protests outside an ICE facility in Chicago, where protesters clashed with federal agents and rammed vehicles of federal agents.

President Donald Trump authorized the deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois to protect federal assets.

A federal judge blocked the deployment on Oct. 9, and the administration has filed a request with the Supreme Court, which is weighing whether to pause the judge’s injunction.

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice

Nearly a third of Russia’s current seaborne oil export potential is now stuck in tankers as the U.S. sanctions upend crude flows and Russia’s top buyers, China and India, are still struggling to assess the implications of the sanctions, according to JPMorgan.  

“Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect, prompting its two largest customers — India and China — to sharply reduce their December purchases,” the Wall Street bank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, as many as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, or nearly a third of its exporting potential, are on tankers at present, amid re-routing and slowed unloading as buyers are hesitant following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. 

Due to the sanctions, the discount of Russia’s flagship crude Urals to Brent has widened in recent days to the highest this year at $20 per barrel. 

As of Monday, Urals was priced $19.40 per barrel below Brent on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, widening from $13-$14 per barrel discount at the beginning of November, an industry source told Russian daily Kommersant earlier this week, citing data by Argus.  

All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg earlier this week.  

In China, major state-owned refiners have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian crude oil, but the independent refiners in the Shandong province, the so-called teapots, are unlikely to halt imports of the cheap crude that has become a staple for their refineries.