With the US national average for gasoline above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index signaling waning household confidence as summer enters its final innings, pressure is building across the consumer complex.

Goldman Sachs’ Scott Feiler warned Tuesday that consumer stocks have suffered several difficult weeks of underperformance, while investor exposure to the sector has collapsed to multi-year lows.

Feiler explained:

Worse Under the Hood: Consumer stocks have had a tough run the last few weeks. The Retail group was -6.5% in August and underperformed the market by over 5%. It has felt a bit worse than that under the surface, given many of the historically owned/quality/growth names have seen sell-offs of 10% to 50%. A list of 10 of these stocks and a few tactical thoughts on each are below…

More importantly, Feiler cited Goldman’s prime brokerage data, which show that gross exposure to retail stocks has plunged to a multi-year low, signaling that hedge funds have reduced their exposure this year. The reduction in exposure likely stems from higher gasoline and diesel prices at the pump, combined with elevated inflation, dampening household confidence.

The 10 pullbacks from peak summer prices highlighted by Feiler include:

• Dick’s Sporting Goods: -45%
• Burlington Stores: -32%
• On Holding: -30%
• Tapestry: -26%
• Walmart: -23%
• Viking Holdings: -22%
• TJX Companies: -21%
• Ralph Lauren: -19%
• Hilton Worldwide: -14%
• Ross Stores: -13%

Goldman consumer stocks versus AAA retail gasoline

For more on Feiler’s tactical views on the 10 names above, Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Stock futures are set to start the new month on the backfoot – having weathered a variety of challenges to post a gain for August – with tech lagging as a global selloff pushes yields to the highest level since 2008. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures slide 1.2% following a reports of a strike by Micron’s labor unions in Taiwan, sending the stock 2% lower in pre-market. Semis / Memory are down 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, with neither Mag7 nor Software seeing a pre-mkt bid. Defensives and Energy are poised to outperform today as small-caps lead large-caps, despite the meltup in rates and oil. Treasury Yields are 2-4 bps higher as part of a general steepening of the curve which has sent US 10Y yield to 4.79% and 10Y JGBs above 3.00% for the first time since 1996. The Dollar is stronger, too. Reports of two supertankers being hit by projectiles are driving oil prices sharply higher and pushing WTI above $87, the highest since July 27. Metals are weaker with Precious metals lagging Base; gold is off ~6% from its Aug high and is 9% above its $4k major support. Ags remain bid after returning ~13% in Aug: the BCOMAG Index is making multi-year highs, last seen in 2022/23.  Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg and JOLTS, with ISM the more important to make sure the growth story remains intact and supportive of the broadening trade. Keep an eye on the ISM Prices Paid as inflation is more critical to markets than growth, going into the Sep 16 Fed Mtg.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all lower (Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.3%, Meta -1%, Microsoft -1.1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Tesla -1.2%

• Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the biotech company to overweight, optimistic about the prospects for deramiocel, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy
• Charter Communications (CHTR) inches 1% lower after the cable operator said CFO Jessica Fischer will step down in mid October to relocate for another professional opportunity.
• Duolingo (DUOL) is up 6% after Evercore ISI upgraded the language-learning software company to outperform, noting investor opportunity following severe weakness in the stock, which is down more than 70% off a peak hit in mid-2025.
• Fervo Energy (FRVO) jumps 13% on a Wall Street Journal report that the geothermal company has signed a deal to sell power to Alphabet’s Google.
• GoPro (GPRO) soars 76%, with the stock set to extend gains after rallying more than 46% Monday.
• Kroger (KR) slips 1% after Citi analyst Paul Lejuez cut his price target on the grocer to a Street-low $57 from $61, and adds a downside 30-day catalyst watch on the stock ahead of Kroger’s Sept. 11 earnings report.
• Medtronic (MDT) gains 4% after the medical device maker boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year.
• Micron Technology (MU) dips about 2% after the Taipei-based Liberty Times reported that Micron will deliver its highest incentive pay plan to its Taiwan-based employees in response to a potential strike by its labor union.
• NIO ADRs (NIO) slip 1% after the carmaker reported vehicle deliveries for August that were largely flat from the previous month.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rises 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the exchange to overweight on growth from prediction markets.

In other corporate news, Western Union and its Australian division are being investigated by the country’s financial crimes agency over concerns about whether its anti-money laundering and terrorism financing controls are effective. Airbnb is testing taking a smaller cut of rental fees from hosts, seeking to fight back against a trend of customers booking directly outside of its platform. Apple claimed in a court filing that OpenAI is actively destroying crucial evidence in an escalation of its legal battle against the AI company.

A global bond selloff has sent global yields to the highest level in years and was most pronounced in Asia, where 10-year Japanese yields hit the highest level this century.

3.001% https://t.co/GLLXT1fSYm pic.twitter.com/Vhbc0GlMBp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 1, 2026

The move came as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed the Bank of Japan to tighten policy amid fresh weakness in the yen. US Treasuries also fell across the curve, with the 10-year rate touching its highest since January 2025. Thirty-year yields extended their stint above 5%, already the longest since 2006. UK gilts sharply underperformed in Europe.

The bond selloff was further pressured by the ascent in energy prices: continued disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude above $92. In the latest escalation in the Middle East, two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles in quick succession while transiting the waterway, according to maritime security consultants Marisks.

Investors are demanding ever greater compensation to hold bonds as concerns about government spending, persistent inflation and surging corporate borrowing to finance the AI buildout intensify. Against this backdrop, traders now price the odds of a September Fed hike at around 70%. Equity investors “should be much more worried about rising long-term bond yields, particularly in the US,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “Continued inflation pressures and the more hawkish stance of Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole last week all point to continued increases.”

The risk-off start to September doesn’t bode well for what is historically the year’s toughest month for the S&P 500. The index has lost 0.88% on average in September over the past three decades.

Positioning, performance dispersion and seasonality make for a tricky setup in the weeks to come. Recent risk events including Nvidia earnings and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium kept market sentiment mixed and eroded breadth without derailing the uptrend. Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner notes near-term asymmetry for US equities has changed into September. He describes a summer characterized by exceptional earnings, a clean up of leverage and positioning, a collapse in volatility, the return of retail investors and systematic investors rebuilding exposure. Rubner views the month ahead as an opportunity to reduce exposure and add cheap protection, but not the beginning of a broader bearish tilt.

Short-term S&P 500 option volatility has fallen to near the lows of the past year. Meanwhile longer term contracts are signaling a bit more concern, with the spread on 1-year and 1-month volatility widening to the 96% percentile over the past year.

Ahead of Friday’s US payrolls report, job openings data for July due later Tuesday are expected to reaffirm the picture of a stable labor market, with limited layoffs. Next week’s inflation data will be more significant for the Fed’s next steps after Warsh made clear that the central bank’s focus for now is on the price-stability side of its mandate, according to Laura Cooper at Nuveen.

The rise in real yields has “a little bit more room to run,” Cooper told Bloomberg TV. “The key catalyst going forward will be that August inflation print. Payrolls are less of a concern.”

Elsewhere, companies are rushing to file for IPOs before Anthropic’s megadeal, which is expected to absorb market attention in coming weeks. Sticking with Anthropic, it’s said to have agreed to a $35 billion computing deal with Lambda, a cloud provider backed by Nvidia, part of an effort to quickly expand its AI capacity.

Inflationary pressures continue to surface – “foodflation” as measured by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index just posted the biggest monthly gain since July 2012. Goldman Sachs’s Robert Kaplan says he would be raising interest rates in September assuming there aren’t any surprises, though he would strive to keep an open mind. Trump called for a federal tax credit to benefit the movie and television industry, saying it would help bring the production of Hollywood blockbusters back to the US.

Tuesday’s weakness extended to Europe, where declines in auto stocks and mining shares put the Stoxx 600 on course for its lowest close since July. Euro-area inflation quickened to the highest level in almost three years, cementing the case for a rate hike next week. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Novartis gains as much as 5.6%, the most since April 2025, after the Swiss drugmaker showed positive trial data for its experimental multiple sclerosis pill, which analysts say holds blockbuster potential if other trials play out well
• Drax Group shares rally as much as 5.6% after securing their second upgrade in a week as Goldman Sachs raises its recommendation to buy from neutral, citing “an attractive cash generation story with options for upside”
• Reckitt Benckiser rises as much as 5.9% after a US jury sided with the company’s Mead Johnson unit in a bellwether trial among a group of cases alleging that formula for premature babies is linked to a deadly bowel disease
• Air Liquide shares gain as much as 4.2% after activist investor Elliott Investment Management built a stake in the industrial gas supplier as it pushes the firm to improve margins, according to people familiar with the matter
• Technip Energies shares rise as much as 9.2%, the most since March, after a report said the French engineering group is taking part in a tender organized by SpaceX to build a rocket fuel production plant in Louisiana
• DFDS rises as much as 6.6%, the most since mid-August, as RBC sets a new Street-high price target on the shipping and logistics firm and says there’s “further recovery potential ahead”
• Dormakaba shares rise as much as 6.4%, briefly hitting their highest level since April, after the maker of security systems reported results and outlined plans to simplify the group’s ownership structure
• Bodycote shares rise as much as 4.8% and trade at their highest level in five years after Veritas agreed to buy the company with a bid that surpassed a rival offer from CVC. Shares are trading above the latest offer price
• Partners Group shares fall as much as 8.6% after the private markets company lowered its FY26 guidance for performance income and appointed Roberto Cagnati and Juri Jenkner as co-CEOs, effective Jan. 1, 2027
• Ashtead Technology drops as much as 4.9%, to the lowest since mid January, after the oil field services provider releases first-half resultsn which Panmure Liberum says confirm issues raised in recent profit warning
• Standard Life drops as much as 3.7% after being downgraded to neutral at UBS following what the broker says has been a “justified” period of outperformance versus UK life peers and the wider European insurance sector

Asian stocks rose, poised for their longest daily winning streak since January, as MediaTek climbed on a new investment deal with Nvidia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.6% before paring more than half of its gains. It’s still on track to rise for a sixth straight day. MediaTek shares jumped by about 10% after Nvidia announced a $3.5 billion investment in the Taiwanese chip designer. TSMC, SK Hynix and Toyota also helped boost the regional gauge. Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 1.8%. Japan’s Topix also rose, along with key indexes in the Philippines and Indonesia. Stocks slumped across rest of the region with global bond yields climbing back to the highest level in almost two decades on inflation concerns and bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher again and weighed on sentiment. Traders have boosted the odds of a September Fed rate hike to 66% from just 34% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke about reining in inflation on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on swaps. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama played down reports of Bessent’s pressure on the BOJ.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with the greenback firmer versus almost all G10 peers.

In rates, the US 10-year yield is at its highest level since January 2025, with borrowing costs up across the curve, as treasuries hold curve-steepening losses in early US session — with 5- and 10-year yields reaching YTD highs — as oil prices add to Monday’s increases on growing concern about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper across tenors with 2s10s curve steeper by about 1.6bp, 5s30s by less than a basis point; 5-year topped 4.53%, 10-year 4.79%, highest levels since January 2025. IG dollar issuance slate already includes several deals following several moribund sessions at the end of August, including Monday’s single offering. Dealers expected about $10 billion this week and around $215 billion for September.  The selling pressure in Europe has been pronounced with the German 10-year yield at its highest level since 2011 on a day where Eurozone inflation printed its highest reading in almost three years. The UK equivalent yield is at levels not seen since 2008. Bunds have similar losses while gilts, reopening after Monday’s UK holiday, tumble as traders price in two 25bp hikes by the Bank of England by February.  Focal points of US session include ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings reports and potential for a heavy slate of new corporate bonds.

In commodities, Brent is up 2% following a report that two oil supertankers hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. This has sapped enthusiasm for risk assets with US futures lower across the board. WTI crude oil futures are up about 2.5% near session highs as hostilities resume between the US and Iran. Gold is down 1.5% and hovering just above its 100DMA. Bitcoin is down 1.2%.

Today’s economic data calendar includes August final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), August ISM manufacturing and July construction spending and JOLTS job openings (10am) and August Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). The Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr on economic outlook and financial inclusion at 9:05am. 

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Global bond yields surged Tuesday as renewed tension between the U.S. and Iran reinforced inflation expectations, which increased the prospect of interest-rate hikes in the coming months. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.792%, the highest since January 2025, according to LSEG data. 30-Year Treasuries are on their worst run since 2006. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield crossed 3% to hit a 30-year high. The 10-year German Bund yield reached 3.364%, unseen since 2011. WSJ / BBG
• Two oil supertankers attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz were struck late Monday by projectiles in quick succession, maritime security consultant Marisks said, the latest sign of renewed hostilities around the critical waterway.  BBG
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit on Tuesday that Tehran would immediately reciprocate if Washington agreed to return to its commitments under the interim deal signed in June. CNBC
• Anthropic has signed a cloud-computing deal worth $35 billion with Nvidia backed cloud provider Lambda, with Nvidia itself holding the lease on the data center, according to people familiar with the deal. The data center is being developed by Hut 8, a bitcoin miner and data-center developer, in Nueces County, Texas. Nvidia signed an agreement with Hut 8 a few weeks ago to secure the capacity, the people said.  WSJ
• China’s factory activity expanded more than forecast in August after three straight months of slowdown, according to a private survey, showing resilience among the country’s export-oriented firms despite a broader slowdown in the economy. The RatingDog China manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.5 from 50.9 in July, according to a statement on Tuesday. It’s been above the 50-threshold separating expansion from contraction for nine months, the longest upswing in five years. BBG
• South Korea’s exports for Aug came in ahead of expectations at +68.7% (vs. the Street +63%). BBG
• South Korea’s key policy chief Kim Yong-beom resigned. He had drawn criticism over the rapid introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs and his proposal for a citizen dividend from the AI boom. BBG
•  
• Eurozone CPI was inline w/the Street on the headline at +3.3% (up from +2.9% in Jul), but core ran a bit cooler at +2.4% (vs. the Street +2.5% and down from +2.5% in Jul). BBG
• Micron’s Taiwanese labour unions are reportedly moving toward a possible strike unless the Co. agrees to reform its bonus system.
• Shipping costs at risk of rising further as the White House escalates its crackdown on immigrant commercial truck drivers Both the Department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Department are demanding licensing data across the U.S. about immigrants driving trucks, in a hunt for what they say is a rash of drivers with improper certifications. WSJ
• “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally, accounting for over 40% of the $40/bbl increase in average global refined product wholesale prices since February…Global exports of refined products declined 6mb/d (25%) year-over-year (yoy), with the Persian Gulf and Russia accounting for 75% of the decline.” – Goldman Delta One

Middle East News

• Two oil supertankers were reportedly hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Marisks. Bloomberg reported that the VLCC Sidr was hit, and the Senegal Prosperity was also struck, transiting north-east and east of Khasab, Oman, respectively. Earlier, UKMTO noted that it received a report of an incident 17nm east of Khasab, Oman, in which a tanker reported being struck by three unknown projectiles while completing outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO also received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian ocean.
• The Iranian President said that “we will abide by the agreement if America does and that Iran will immediately reciprocate if ⁠the US fulfils its commitments under ‌an interim deal signed in June”, Al Jazeera reported citing ISNA.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Europe cannot claim strategic autonomy while following Washington’s orders, stressing that true autonomy means making independent decisions.
• Pakistan’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi in an informal manner in Bishek at the holding room of the SCO Council of Head of States, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
• Gulf Corporation Council condemned Iran’s attacks on Jordan, saying they pose a direct threat to the security and stability of the region, according to Al Jazeera.
• Yemeni armed forces targeted early on Tuesday the bases of Saudi and Emirati mercenaries in Al Makha and Al Khuwakh located in the southwest of the country, according to IRIB.
• Hapag-Lloyd’s (HLAG GY) CEO said it is reasonable to expect the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a mild negative bias amid higher prices and yields following the recent geopolitical flare-up, although some of the losses were stemmed as participants also digested recent data. ASX 200 was pressured amid underperformance in the consumer, tech and telecom sectors, while Australia’s 10yr yield was at its highest since 2011, but with downside in the index stemmed amid strength in the commodity-related industries and after better-than-expected data. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively but was off earlier lows and briefly turned positive as headwinds from higher yields were partially offset by better-than-expected Company Sales and Profits data, while a Ministry of Finance senior official said the BoJ is expected to steer monetary policy aligned with the economy and not influenced by the US, in response to a recent report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed. KOSPI initially dropped but then gradually returned to flat territory amid light pertinent newsflow and with indecisive performances in the tech heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark underperformed amid weakness in some big platform names and property stocks, while sentiment was also not helped by a weak debut for fast fashion retailer Shein. Conversely, the downside in the mainland was cushioned by stronger-than-expected RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK.
• A Japanese MoF senior official said they expect the BoJ to steer monetary policy aligned with the economy and not influenced by the US.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he is closely watching market moves and that rising interest rate costs risks fiscal rigidity. Will re-examine the fiscal scale and control the annual issuance of JGBs.
• Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said he aims to appropriately control total bond issuance, adding that he cannot yet provide details on next fiscal year’s budget and declines to comment on foreign officials’ remarks.
• Fitch said China’s mortgage easing is unlikely to significantly revive housing demand as high inventories and weak buyer confidence continue to weigh on the property market.
• China issued new guidelines requiring automakers operating overseas to price vehicles and components lawfully.
• Chinese Finance Ministry is to set a 20% tax level on foreign individuals’ dividend income.

European bourses are underwater on Tuesday (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%) as the continued rise in global bond yields weigh on equities. The upside in energy prices isn’t helping either, with the latest that two supertankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz. These confluence of factors (rising yields and energy prices) have constantly been seen throughout the Iran war, which has resulted in European underperformance. Sectors have a negative bias. Energy, unsurprisingly, tops the sector pile. Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals round out the sector leaders. To the downside is Travel & Leisure, with Financial Services and Basic Resources completing the sector laggards.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham will signal fresh measures to help voters with the cost of living on Tuesday, while decisions on welfare are likely to be delayed into next year, according to FT.

FX

• Yields driving action across FX today with all major currencies weaker against the Buck (DXY +0.2%). Recent updates sparked a typical geopolitical risk-off reaction with DXY reaching a new 99.63 peak and looking to return to that 99.70 peak seen after Warsh on Friday. The driver was reports via Maritime Risk firm Marisks, which said two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the number of bullish USD factors today, downside risks could emerge again via renewed USD debasement fears, Treasury action to curtail yields, or a soft Payrolls print this Friday.
• Continued upside in energy benchmarks (TTF Oct’26 at EUR 71/MWh) continue to weigh on European currencies with all CEE, Euro and Sterling weaker against the Buck. No EUR move to this morning’s Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs, which saw the EZ majors confirmed in expansion while headline inflation ticked higher to 3.3% as expected. EUR/USD looking to return to the 1.1577 trough which it printed post-Warsh; should this breach, the 100DMA @1.1570 could be tested. For CEE, ING writes this morning that recent hawkish repricing should limit further weakening vs. EUR.
• Cable stopped just short of 1.3530, a zone which has proven support since mid-Aug; the pair also falling through the 21DMA for the third session in a row. All other significant DMAs are below, around the 1.3450 zone.UK yields are in focus with the 10yr at highs of 5.23%, well above the OBR’s March assumption of 4.5%. A former Treasury official notes that these moves, if applied across the curve, are a GBP 6bln increase in debt interest by 2029/30. Parliament is back from recess today with the PM’s Spokesperson scheduled at noon and Burnham himself after 15:30 BST, though no major policy announcements are expected.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are in the red this morning, continuing the action seen on Monday. Overnight, JGBs were hit amidst higher energy prices, ongoing fiscal concerns and after Treasury Sec Bessent directly urged the BoJ to hike in September. Despite all this, the 10yr auction was well received, with a 3% yield seemingly enough to feed investor appetite, at least for now.
• USTs (-5 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks, Bunds (-46 ticks) follow suit whilst Gilts (-105 ticks) are the clear underperformer on its return from holiday – in catchup trade to peers. In the European morning, the move lower has extended, with energy prices taking another leg higher on reports that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.
• As mentioned above, global yields have soared to multi-year highs amid higher oil prices, and hawkish Fed repricing. This has spurred somewhat of a negative feedback loop, with higher yields only exacerbating fiscal/debt concerns. The US10yr resides beyond the 4.75% mark (highest since Jan’25), whilst the GE10yr (3.36%) holds at multi-decade highs.
• Aside from energy-dynamics, Bunds have had domestic data to digest. In the morning, German Retail Sales fell more than expected – though spurred little reaction at the time. Thereafter, the EZ-wide Manufacturing PMI saw an incremental revision lower. The report suggested that “a further softening of producer price increases, even in the midst of sustained oil market volatility, helps to alleviate broader inflation worries. That said, the pace of disinflation is starting to level off”. The inflation picture continues to support an ECB rate hike in September, with headline inflation ticking higher to 3.3% Y/Y from 2.9%.
• In the UK, Gilts are the clear underperformer this morning; the UK10yr (5.25%) has reached levels not seen since the GFC. This would be a significant worry heading into the Autumn Budget, which local press is beginning to increase its coverage on. An ex-Treasury official suggested that the 20yr Gilt is 70bps above what is assumed at the Spring Forecast. They noted that if this increase was applied across the curve, it would result in a GBP 6bln debt increase by 2029/30. Therefore, it is clear that PM Burnham and his Chancellor Healey will require a significant decline in yields soon, to allow them to implement some of their key commitments; energy relief, cost of living measures and transport caps. To remind, the Autumn budget will be delivered on 28 October 2026.
• Germany sells EUR 4.281bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.56x (prev. 1.48x), average yield 3.09% (prev. 2.89%), retention 22.16% (prev. 24.1%).
• Japan sells JPY 1.99tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.29x (prev. 2.56x), average yield 2.995% (prev. 2.840%), Tail in price 0.12 vs prev. 0.46.
• Australia sells AUD 300mln in 4.75% June 2054 bonds: avg. yield 5.6657%, b/c 3.68x.

Commodities

• Crude futures remain underpinned after yesterday’s gains on the weekend US-Iran flare-up. Price action this morning has been supported by further shipping-related developments. Yesterday, the UKMTO reported an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman, while this morning reports citing Marisks suggested that two oil supertankers had been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, although details remain limited. On the diplomatic front, some downside in oil was seen earlier after the Iranian President struck a less escalatory tone and suggested that “Iran will immediately reciprocate if the US fulfils its commitments under an interim deal signed in June”.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures have ultimately been on a steady grind higher, barring the aforementioned dip on the Iranian President’s comments. WTI resides towards the top of a USD 86.13-88.13/bbl range (vs Monday’s USD 84.11-86.79/bbl band), while Brent sits towards the upper band of USD 90.70-92.55/bbl (vs yesterday’s 89.03-91.52/bbl range).
• Dutch TTF has also been on an upward trajectory after initially finding resistance just under EUR 71.25/MWh, before encountering support near EUR 69.75/MWh, and then moving back to highs.
• Precious metals have been hampered as DXY rises with oil prices once again, whilst demand is likely not helped by Bloomberg reports that Indian PM Modi has told Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary. Spot gold fell under yesterday’s low (USD 4,396/oz) and trades near a current intraday trough at USD 4,370/oz (vs high 4,461/oz), just above its 100 DMA (4,366/oz). Spot silver is back around USD 65/oz after hitting recent highs of USD 71.17/oz two trading sessions ago.
• Base metals are more mixed as the LME returns from its long weekend and plays catch-up. 3M LME copper has been edging lower to trade towards the bottom end of a USD 14,262.43- 14,450.13/t, with price action in line with global peers as COMEX copper posts intraday losses of some 0.7% at the time of writing.
• US President Trump said they will fill up the strategic reserve and will want to do it with Venezuelan oil.
• Venezuelan oil company North American Blue Energy Partners plans to dispatch over 50 drilling rigs in Venezuela in the next few years, according to WSJ.
• Iraq set the floor prices for crude oil cargoes offered via tender for September loadings outside of Hormuz, according to a pricing document.
• Indian PM Modi has told Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary, Bloomberg reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• US VP Vance said we want to have a positive relationship with China, adding we also recognise that China is a competitor, according to Fox News.
• Brazilian and US officials spoke virtually to discuss tariffs imposed by ‌the Trump administration and agreed to hold further meetings ‌at a later date, according to Reuters

Central Banks

• ECB’s Kocher said that an ECB hike is needed if upside risks are confirmed in the projection.
• ECB’s Rehn warned that conflict of attrition in Iran could keep inflation high, according to FT.

Geopolitics

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Russia’s Finance Minister Siluanov the US will not provide Russia with economic relief until the Ukraine war ends, according to a source familiar with the bilateral meeting.
• The UK government said Chancellor Healey called on allies to step up their pressure on Russia and set out new action to stop Russian President Putin evading sanctions to fund his illegal war. The Chancellor will double the maximum fine available to the OFSI from 50% to 100% of the value of a sanctions breach.
• Russian Foreign Ministry said a Black Sea ceasefire would only push prospects for a peaceful settlement further away, IFX reported.
• Ukraine said Russia struck port infrastructure in the southern Odessa area.
• Explosions were reportedly heard in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.
• Ukraine’s Air Force said UAVs were detected heading towards Zaporizhzhia.
• Poland intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea.
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow will take countermeasures if US weapons are deployed in Japan, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iran and Chinese Foreign Ministers reportedly held talks in Kyrgyzstan during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Al Jazeera reported.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our usual review on how markets fared in August. Recent years have often brought a late-summer wobble, but this August was the exception, as robust data took risk assets to new heights. That meant the S&P 500 hit fresh records, but it wasn’t all plain sailing, with longer-dated bond yields reaching multi-year highs. In part, that was thanks to the wider risk-on tone. But inflation concerns also played a role, particularly given the lack of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And as all that was happening, concerns about financial repression also saw gold prices (+9.67%) bounce back as well. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.

Markets finished August on a softer note with equities and bonds weighed down on Monday by the weekend escalation between the US and Iran, having also lost ground last Friday following a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. This pushed 10yr Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025 at 4.75% by yesterday’s close, and 10yr yields are trading another +3.4bps higher overnight. With a September Fed hike now two-thirds priced, US rates will see their next major test with the US August jobs report on Friday, while this week’s other highlights include the ISM indices (today and Thursday) for the US and today’s August inflation print for the Eurozone.

The bond sell-off has also been a global affair. This morning 10yr JGB yields have touched the 3% level for the first time since 1996 (+5.5bps to 2.99% as I type) while 10yr Aussie bonds are +9.5bps higher at a post-2011 high of 5.18%. Meanwhile, yesterday saw 10yr bund yields rise to their highest since 2011 (+4.6bps to 3.32%) and 10yr OAT yields to their highest since 2008 (+5.0bps to 4.18%).

In terms of the drivers of higher yields, yesterday’s main culprit was the weekend escalation in the Middle East that saw the US and Iran exchange strikes for the first time since late July. The US struck IRGC targets on Larak island in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran responding with attacks on the UAE and Jordan. Trump said yesterday that the US would respond to Iran’s latest attacks against US facilities in the region, though he also sought to downplay the escalation, saying that strikes against Iran will be limited and that “this is a relatively little war for us”. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi said that the US must return to the terms of the June memorandum of understanding if the sides are to “exit this situation”.

With resolution between the US and Iran looking increasingly distant, Brent crude rose +2.71% yesterday to $90.49/bbl. It is trading another +1.09% higher this morning. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices (+4.23%) rose to their highest level since January 2023 at €69.81/MWh, adding to the pressure on EGB yields mentioned above. 

In the US, Monday’s rise in yields came as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that “we’ll be talking… more in the coming weeks or months” about a fiscal consolidation package, having previously suggested the administration could unveil a new fiscal proposal by this week. Bessent also played down the view that he “was trying to change direction of bonds”. Monday’s +3.1bps rise in 10yr Treasury yields followed a +4.3bps increase on Friday, while 2yr yields (-0.2bps) were stable on Monday after spiking by +11.2bps on Friday following Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. 

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech marked a notable communication shift, delivering greater specificity in terms of views on the economy and a decidedly hawkish lean. The Fed Chair corrected the arguable July press conference missteps, reaffirming 2% PCE as the target, fed funds as the primary policy tool and the Fed’s ability to act despite ongoing task forces. Notably, his inflation assessment focused on several specific hawkish points, while he also acknowledged that there were “few signs of policy restraint” and concluded by saying that “we have work to do” unless “underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed”. 

Fed funds futures repriced hawkishly in response to Warsh’s comments, with September Fed hike pricing rising from just 36% last Thursday to 58% on Friday and to 67% this morning, while 60bps of hikes are now priced by next June. Our US economists believe the burden is on incoming data to surprise meaningfully to the downside to avoid a 25bp rate hike in September. In turn, they continue to expect that the Fed will hike 50bps this year, with increases at the September and December meetings. See their Jackson Hole reaction here.

Following on the heels of Warsh’s forceful Jackson Hole speech, the data docket picks up this week with the main event being Friday’s August employment report in the US. Our US economists expect headline payrolls to rebound to +65k after the -23k decline in July, and see the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%, with average hourly earnings rising by +0.4% MoM (+0.1% in July). Other labour market indicators due include today’s July JOLTS report, which should continue to paint the picture of a “low hiring / low firing” environment, and ADP private payrolls tomorrow.

We’ll also get the latest signal on economic activity, with the final August manufacturing PMIs (today) and services PMIs (Thursday), which will be accompanied by the respective ISM readings in the US. Note that the ISM surveys have been pointing to strong economic momentum in the US, with the one notable exception being weakness in the ISM services employment component.

The August PMI data out of Asia this morning showed China’s private manufacturing sector expanding at a faster pace in August, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rising to a two-month high of 51.5, up from 50.9 in July (51.0 expected). Stronger output and an increase in new orders pointed to improving demand conditions across the sector. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.0. 

Over in Europe, this week’s data highlight comes with today’s Eurozone August HICP print. Based on the country releases so far, which included a +2.9% print for Germany yesterday (vs. +3.1% expected), our European economists see the Eurozone headline HICP print tracking at +3.36% YoY. In other releases, we’ll have Germany’s retail sales (Tuesday) and factory orders (Friday) for July, while on the central bank side we’ll see decisions in Canada and New Zealand (Wednesday). 

Monday’s challenging geopolitical backdrop weighed on equities on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling -0.33% after a -0.36% decline Friday, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 slumped by -0.62% (after +0.51% Friday). Tech stocks saw a slightly better performance yesterday, with the Nasdaq down -0.12% after -0.52% Friday, which was thanks to a stabilization in the Philly semiconductor index (+0.57%) after its -3.47% slump on Friday. Remaining tech earnings this week include Palo Alto Networks and Dell today, as well as Broadcom and Snowflake tomorrow.

Cautious risk sentiment has largely carried over into Asian markets overnight with major indices posting modest declines. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.00%) is the biggest underperformer while the KOSPI (-0.08%), Nikkei (-0.26%), the CSI 300 (-0.06%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.32%) are all trading slightly in the red as well. Meanwhile, in the FX space we’ve seen a notable milestone this morning with the Japanese yen trading above 160 against the US dollar for the first time since the end of July, before recovering to 159.86 (-0.08%) as I type.

Summary

• Iran offers conditional ceasefire: Pezeshkian says Iran will return to talks if the US honors prior commitments, which Tehran says it has violated.
• US threatens further strikes: Trump warned of more action but ruled out necessarily returning to full-scale war.
• Tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz: Two supertankers struck exiting Hormuz, escalating energy-market risks.
• Oil prices surge: Brent crude rose above $92/barrel.
• Diesel supply squeezed: Refinery disruptions are driving diesel prices and margins sharply higher.

*  *  *

Pezeshkian: We’ll Teturn to Ceasefire if US Does

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday reiterated his country’s willingness to return to talks with the US, but made clear that Washington must return to its prior commitments made.

“I state explicitly that if the United States returns to its commitments under the … memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take reciprocal action,” Pezeshkian said on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. 

It is significant that he’s there at the Kyrgyzstan-hosted summit in person, receiving a welcome from the likes of Putin, Xi, Erdogan, the UN’s Guterres, and others.

Pezeshkian still blasted the US for “reneging on its commitments” under the agreement, which unraveled in June – leading to various weeks of sporadic tit-for-tat attacks – the latest which occurred just at the start of this week.

President Trump yesterday told reporters in the Oval Office that there will be a “response” to the Iranian attacks, but also cautioned that this would not mean a return to full-scale war.

US officials have talked about “mowing the grass” with a series of indefinite strikes, while ironically having an aversion to anyone applying the label “forever war”. 

It’s not a “forever war”; it’s just “mowing the lawn.”https://t.co/oJTjmdSiHb pic.twitter.com/9JI0lfWaVS

— Brandan P. Buck (@brandan_buck) August 31, 2026

Two Supertankers Hit

Two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, signaling yet another sharp escalation in hostilities along the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

The attacks follow President Trump’s warning Monday that additional strikes against Iran remain possible. Traders are pricing in a further war risk premium, pushing Brent crude futures above $92 a barrel, while US diesel crack spreads have breached the critical $100-a-barrel threshold.

Maritime security consultant Marisks reports that Saudi shipping giant Bahri’s VLCC Sidr was hit northeast of Khasab, Oman. The Sinokor-operated Senegal Prosperity was reportedly struck by three projectiles farther east. Both tankers were exiting the maritime chokepoint. 

UK Maritime Trade Operations separately confirmed that a tanker completing an outbound transit of Hormuz reported three projectile strikes but did not identify the vessel.

Brent crude futures ripped higher during Asian and European trading on the news, with the benchmark firmly above $92 as of 0600 ET.

More US Strikes on Table, Trump Warns

“President Donald Trump warned Monday that further strikes are possible, pushing Brent back above $91/bbl and driving another bear-steepening move across global bond markets,” UBS analyst George Redman wrote earlier. 

US diesel crack spreads were above $100 as of 0600 ET.

As we’ve extensively detailed, the energy crisis is not necessarily in crude itself but in refined products. Gulf diesel and gasoline shipments have declined amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while damage to Russian energy infrastructure from Ukrainian one-way attack drones has created a perfect storm in global refining markets in late summer.

‘Diesel at Epicenter of Supply Squeeze’

Goldman’s energy expert Daan Struyven warned in his most recent note that “diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze.”

“Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in the note, adding, “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally.”

Struyven and his team estimate that global refinery runs are down 7 million barrels per day from last year and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March, around the time the US launched Operation Epic Fury and Ukraine ramped up one-way drone attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, there may be some diplomatic traction in the Gulf area, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian saying on state TV: “I state unequivocally that should the US return to its commitments under the aforementioned Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will also take reciprocal action immediately.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “Operation Economic Outcast” is also ramping up as the Trump administration deploys sanctions to pressure Tehran into submission.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk…

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Europe cannot claim strategic autonomy while following Washington’s orders, stressing that true autonomy means making independent decisions.
• Pakistan’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi in an informal manner in Bishek at the holding room of the SCO Council of Head of States, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
• Gulf Corporation Council condemned Iran’s attacks on Jordan, saying they pose a direct threat to the security and stability of the region, according to Al Jazeera.
• Yemeni armed forces targeted early on Tuesday the bases of Saudi and Emirati mercenaries in Al Makha and Al Khuwakh located in the southwest of the country, according to IRIB.
• Hapag-Lloyd’s (HLAG GY) CEO said it is reasonable to expect the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

Unhinged middle-aged women are hitting the news feeds hard this month.  NYC police were forced to shoot a woman dead this week after she pulled two knives from a shopping bag in the middle of Times Square and went on a random stabbing spree. 

At least one 68-year-old man was severely injured and another 32-year-old female victim was killed after being stabbed in the abdomen. 

The shooting happened just before 4:30 p.m. next to a New York Police Department substation, just outside One Times Square, the building that hosts the city’s annual New Year’s Eve ball drop celebration. It is one of the most heavily trafficked and policed spots in all of New York. 

Today in Times Square when tasers don’t work pic.twitter.com/aALVDZgYD0

— The E Man🇺🇸Street PHD (@DETECTIVE4LIFE) August 31, 2026

Police first deployed tasers, but they were ineffective.  The women, who remains unnamed by city authorities, charged at officers while swinging the knives wildly.  No possible motive for the attack has been given, though, these days, it’s often the case that there is no coherent motive. 

Here’s the exact moment a lady charged at NYPD officers with two knives.

Minutes before this took place the lady allegedly stabbed multiple people.

What happened to good citizens these days ? Why didn’t someone walk up behind her and hit her over the head with something ?…

— Viral News NYC (@ViralNewsNYC) August 31, 2026

The attacker’s name has not been officially released, though some sources identify her as Pamela Cisneros.  Such info could be withheld for 48 hours or more if authorities have trouble finding and informing family members.  Confirmation of identity could also be delayed due to the woman’s immigration status.

Police did not say if the stabbing victims were tourists or residents.  Videos posted on social media show a group of at least 10 officers gathered around the woman. Officers tried to convince her to drop the knives for several minutes before using a Taser.

The woman told them: “I’m not dropping anything, I would rather kill both of you…”

A similar incident occurred in July in the Upper West Side when Raul Morales, 51, was charged with randomly stabbing two men.  Witnesses said he yelled “Allahu Akbar” during the attack. Mental health was cited and the event was swept under the rug by the media.  

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

Cybersecurity researchers have found surveillance backdoors in Chinese carrier routers made by Zbtlink and the same software in a different Zbtlink-made router sold through Amazon.

Chinese law requires telecom and internet companies to provide technical assistance to police and state-security agencies.

In an Aug. 27 report, cybersecurity firm VulnCheck said it found two hidden programs in an $88 router bought through Amazon from a U.S. seller. One, which the researchers named Speakingstone, sends information about the router to a remote server and can receive instructions to redirect internet traffic, obtain login credentials, or take control of the device.

The second, named Darklantern, can allow someone on the internet to take control of an affected router without a password, VulnCheck said.

The researchers then found both programs operating on routers already connected to the internet.

The findings expand VulnCheck’s Aug. 5 investigation, which involved a different Zbtlink backdoor, named ENDLESSDOORS, found across more than 20 router models sold worldwide.

The newly discovered backdoors are older. VulnCheck found them in router software dating to 2019, years before ENDLESSDOORS was disclosed.

Speakingstone was not simply dormant code sitting inside old router software. It was still running.

VulnCheck researcher Jacob Baines registered an abandoned internet address that Speakingstone had been programmed to contact. Routers began sending information to it almost immediately, according to VulnCheck.

By Aug. 21, 392 routers had contacted the researchers. Of those, 390 were in China, and 83 percent were connected through China Mobile. Another 304 used Wi-Fi names beginning with “CMCC,” China Mobile’s commonly used abbreviation. Baines also detailed the figures in an Aug. 27 post on X.

Most – 363 of the 392 routers – were the same model running the same software version.

Baines said the pattern appeared to be a large deployment of routers provided by a telecommunications carrier to customers inside China. VulnCheck described it as “domestic Chinese surveillance technology.”

The 392 routers may represent only part of the deployment. VulnCheck counted devices trying to reach the abandoned backup address; routers already communicating with the main server would not have appeared in that count, Baines explained.

Backdoor Could Redirect Traffic, Steal Credentials

Speakingstone gave whoever controlled its remote server broad access to an affected router.

VulnCheck said an operator could collect information about the device, obtain the credentials it used to connect to the internet, redirect internet traffic, and take control of the router. Its security advisory also says the software can open another path for remote access.

Baines described Speakingstone in his Aug. 27 post as software that “phones home to ZBT infrastructure and supports remote surveillance.” ZBT refers to Shenzhen Zhibotong Electronics, the Chinese networking equipment manufacturer known as Zbtlink.

The software was built into the router rather than installed later by an outside hacker, according to VulnCheck.

Darklantern provided another path into affected devices. VulnCheck said someone who could reach one of the routers over the internet could take control without supplying a valid password, according to its advisory.

Jeremiah Ford, a senior cloud support engineer with 25 years of experience in information technology, said the most serious issue was that the routers exposed administrator-level access directly to the public internet.

“This is the biggest problem,” Ford said.

He said full control of a router could also give an attacker access to other devices on the same network.

Ford called the scale of the exposure significant, pointing to VulnCheck’s finding that every detected Darklantern device offered administrator-level access without authentication.

“This is huge,” he said. “And based on the numbers of devices affected by this, the scale could have been huge, if it went undetected.”

The U.S. exposure extended beyond the single router the researchers bought on Amazon.

VulnCheck found 203 routers running Darklantern that were directly reachable from the internet across 22 countries. More than half – 103 – were in the United States. The devices identified themselves as 16 different ZBT router models.

Zbtlink Sold Under Other Brands

The same Speakingstone software found on the China Mobile-linked routers was present in the Deep Orange router VulnCheck bought through Amazon in the United States.

The researchers traced the device to Zbtlink. That device also contained Darklantern.

Zbtlink manufactures equipment that other companies can sell under different names, meaning buyers may not see the Zbtlink name on the product.

VulnCheck traced Zbtlink hardware to brands and products sold in multiple countries, including the United States, but cautioned that not every product using Zbtlink hardware necessarily contains the backdoors.

The discovery comes in a country where telecom and internet companies are legally required to assist police and state-security agencies.

China’s Cybersecurity Law requires network operators to provide technical support and assistance for national-security work and criminal investigations.

Article 18 of China’s Counter-Terrorism Law requires telecommunications and internet providers to give public-security and state-security agencies technical interfaces, decryption, and other technical assistance for terrorism investigations.

Accounts of police access to telecommunications systems date back decades.

Minghui, a U.S.-based website that documents the persecution of Falun Gong practitioners and publishes first-hand accounts from China, has documented cases in which practitioners were detained after authorities monitored their telephone or internet communications.

In a 2006 article, Minghui described special police-monitoring interfaces connecting Chinese telecommunications equipment with public-security systems. The account said police could use the systems to trace calls and identify people contacted by someone under surveillance.

The article concerned an earlier generation of telecommunications equipment, two decades before the newly reported Zbtlink backdoors.

US Takes Action

The findings were issued months after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) moved to restrict approval of new foreign-made consumer routers over national security concerns.

On March 23, the FCC added foreign-produced consumer-grade routers to its Covered List following a national security determination by executive branch agencies. The action prevents approval of new covered router models unless an exemption applies; equipment already authorized can remain on the market.

The FCC said malicious actors had exploited weaknesses in foreign-made routers to attack U.S. households, enable espionage, and disrupt networks. It also said foreign-made routers were involved in the Volt Typhoon, Flax Typhoon, and Salt Typhoon cyber campaigns targeting U.S. infrastructure.

As of Aug. 28, VulnCheck’s advisories did not list patched software versions for Speakingstone or Darklantern, leaving owners of affected routers without a published fix.

At the end of last week, the Trump administration’s halt to tungsten scrap exports took effect, as the U.S. and its allies confront a deepening supply crisis and race to find new supplies. 

China’s export restrictions are accelerating the West’s campaign to secure ex-China supplies, reinforcing our U.S.-China decoupling theme and placing a major spotlight on the largest Western tungsten miner: Almonty Industries.

The miner operates in Portugal and is ramping up its prized Sangdong Mine in South Korea, which is expected to account for roughly 40% of Western tungsten production once it reaches full capacity.

To understand the global tungsten crisis, readers must first remember the metal’s critical importance to the modern economy.

Tungsten is essential to defense systems, industrial tooling, semiconductors, automobiles, energy infrastructure, electronics, artificial intelligence, and the power-grid buildout. Put simply, it is one of the building blocks of the industrial economy, yet its supply chain remains fractured and heavily exposed to China.

Almonty CEO Lewis Black’s latest snapshot of the global tungsten market, the severity of the supply crisis, and the West’s race to secure ex-China supplies deserves close attention. 

Almonty is emerging as the leading pure-play Western tungsten miner and a critical supplier capable of helping break Beijing’s grip on the market. 

Here is CEO Black’s assessment: 

Everyone keeps asking me when the tungsten price falls back. I understand the instinct, but it’s a distraction from the thing that matters: what happens when a metal you can’t do without becomes hard to buy. The last two weeks gave a few answers to that.

As of last week, no American can export tungsten scrap without a license. All of it – 100 percent – stays home, at least for the next year.

The plants that turn that scrap into something useful are already sitting in the United States, most of them European or Japanese owned. We collect it here, process it here, and the midstream product goes on to Europe. That cycle carries on exactly as before, and the country is in no danger of drowning in a pile of metal it can’t handle.

So why the rule, with all its talk of national defense? Because a handful of American operators had found a tidier deal: sell the scrap straight to China at a premium – the very country the rule is built to shut out. That’s the door Washington just shut. Who said patriotism was dead?

Those businesses know who they are. And so do we.

Tungsten markets

Michael Dornhofer, ISBP – assessment as of 28 August, 2026

For the situation on the tungsten market, a Chinese associate, with whom I spoke this week, found the right words, “off-season sleep”. So, prices in China and in the west are stable. APT CIF Rotterdam/Baltimore is still around 3000 USD/mtu WO3 for APT; concentrate prices are between 2400 and 2600. Anyhow, while some downstream customers hope (or should I say dream) that prices might drop soon, other stakeholders see a persisting supply problem in all western countries.

Why can one see the situation so differently? It is a fact that tungsten prices in China are now significantly below western prices, and it is widely understood that China had set the world market price for several decades. What’s different now is that since February 2025, for each individual export of intermediates, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has to grant an export license. And as they are very restrictive (only 28 t APT could be exported in first half 2026!) there is now a firewall between Chinese domestic market and rest of the world.

Everyone understands that, as China stood for 80 per cent of the tungsten world market, without APT/Oxide from China, there is a shortage on tungsten raw material in the west. And if there is not enough tungsten raw material, coming from new sources, there is no logic argument that prices should drop significantly.

Of course, after the tungsten price went up eightfold in just over one year, there can always be a technical correction, but in principle, prices cannot go back, even close to levels, seen previously.

Michael Dornhofer is founder of ISBP (Independent Supply Business Partner) in Graz, Austria. He has spent more than 20 years in tungsten, including 13 years at Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten, Sandvik’s tungsten business, and has worked as an independent agent and consultant to the tungsten and hard metal industry since 2019.

The buyback, and the thinking behind it

Last week the board approved buying back up to $300m of our own shares – about five percent of the company – over three years.

It comes out of Sangdong’s earnings, spread across those three years, so the balance sheet stays intact. The convertible we priced in June dilutes existing shareholders by a little over 7 percent if it converts. Buy back 5 percent, and most of that dilution goes away. We priced the convert with the stock around $21, so anywhere below that, buying our own stock is the smartest money we can spend.

Yes, it can look like money in one door and out the other. But it comes in from the mine and goes back to the people who own the mine. That’s where it belongs.

The alternative was buying a boat. An institutional shareholder asked what I’d do with the cash; I admitted I’d been eyeing up a superyacht. He asked if he could use it. Two weeks a year, I said. He wanted to know whether the SEC would allow it. Nobody’s tested that, as far as I know – but the upkeep would have ruined me anyway. So my dream of a floating company vehicle will have to wait. (Edit from David Hanick – Almonty’s in-house counsel: Please note that this is said in jest. Mr Black is most definitely not buying a superyacht.)

Down on volume, up on margin

Panasqueira’s output dropped this quarter, and that was the plan. When the tungsten price is this high, we go after the low-grade ore – the material we’d ignore in a normal market because it wouldn’t pay. High prices make it pay. So we mine it and bank the margin, and the good grades stay in the ground for another day. Fewer tonnes come out of the mine. More money goes in the till. And because we’re taking ore we’d otherwise have left alone, the reserve lasts longer.

That’s the difference between an operator and a junior sitting on someone else’s money. A junior takes what the market gives it. An operator decides what to mine and when. The number that matters came in at a little over 60 percent – gross margin for the quarter. On a 136-year-old mine, running a fifth of the grade we have waiting in Korea. Show me another mine that does that.

What I’m reading

The auto industry’s China crisis

Honda’s chief executive Toshihiro Mibe went to China to see how its carmakers build so fast, and left rattled. New models there take under two years – half the time Honda needs. Xiaomi, a phone maker that started building cars two years ago, has swapped the assembly line for robots and single-piece castings and turns out a thousand cars a day. Honda’s own sales in China have gone from 1.6mn in 2020 to 640,000. “We have no chance against this,” said Mibe. His answer: pull thousands of engineers into a revived R&D arm and hope they can close the gap. Being the giant counts for nothing when someone hungrier builds faster.

For when the screen goes dark

Europe pays for everything by phone now, and yet weirdly the value of banknotes in circulation keeps climbing. Cash is vanishing from the checkout and piling up in drawers and safes instead. When a blackout knocked out power across Spain and Portugal last year and the card terminals died, the only money that still worked was the paper kind. The European Central Bank has drawn the obvious lesson and now treats cash as resilience – the backup for the day the network falls over. Or the zombie apocalypse finally comes.

Buying from yourself

Nvidia is putting up to $105bn behind a new data center for OpenAI – which OpenAI will then fill with Nvidia’s own chips. Money goes out as investment and comes back as revenue. The market calls it circular financing, and it’s nervous about it. The figure started at a reported $250bn and shrank to $105bn once investors saw the shape of it. Nvidia’s boss insists it’s nothing of the sort, and that OpenAI will pay its own way. Maybe. But if the customer needs the chipmaker to fund the purchase, you have to ask whether it can stand on its own.

Opinion

Everyone forecasts the West staying short of tungsten for years. On the face of it, that’s everything a producer like me could want: high prices, customers with nowhere else to go. For the most part, it is. But it also comes with challenges.

Most shortages destroy demand through price. Something gets too expensive, so people use less or design it out. Tungsten doesn’t work that way. You use so little in any finished product, whether a cutting tool, a gearbox or a semiconductor, that the price could double and nobody would stop building the thing.

What kills tungsten demand is absence. When a manufacturer can’t get the material at all, the line stops and the product goes unbuilt, and a shuttered plant rarely reopens. And you can’t engineer around it: in the work tungsten does, nothing else has the hardness or takes the heat. So a shortage suits me right until it starts shutting Western factories for want of material. I’m better off with more tungsten reaching those factories, not less – even if it comes from my rivals. A starved supply chain loses the demand I depend on.

In the media

Hot again, apparently. The Wall Street Journal ran the numbers this week under the headline “Tungsten Stocks Are Hot (Again),” with us on track for our best month in over a year. What I liked was the “again” – the paper remembers when tungsten was a curiosity, a metal people bought in little cubes for the novelty of the weight.

The retail crowd is paying attention too. Michael Sikand – an investor with a good nose for these things – put out a long interview the two of us did. His three-line version for his audience: no AI chips and no missiles without tungsten, the price up roughly sevenfold since China pulled back, and Sangdong capable of around 40 percent of the world’s non-China supply. Not a bad summary of a story that took me a decade to build.

A defense take on the shortage. National Security News set out why Western militaries are exposed on tungsten: 30 years with barely any US production, and a Pentagon rule that from January turns away Chinese-origin metal. They quoted me saying what I’ve said for years – America walked away from tungsten and left China to it.

A television crew went down Sangdong. Korean broadcast news took its cameras underground – blasting in the dark, tungsten glowing blue under UV light, 4.7 kilometers of tunnels – and came up with the same conclusion we keep making: a mine the West wrote off 30 years ago is now one of the few places outside China that can actually supply the metal, with most of its output already spoken for by the United States.

Watch Here: Sangdong At Center Of Western Race To Secure Tungsten

. . .

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

NATO military activity in the Arctic poses a direct threat to Russia’s security and could lead to disastrous consequences, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in an article published by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday.

In February, NATO conducted Arctic Sentry, a large-scale military exercise in the Arctic and High North regions, amid concerns over the threat posed by both Russia and China. Russia, which has a naval fleet in the Arctic that includes nuclear-armed submarines dating back to the Soviet era, has long viewed the region as its sphere of interest.

“Intensive military preparations are underway in close proximity to our northern borders,” Lavrov said. “NATO is conducting large-scale military exercises involving non-regional countries and introducing new components of its command-and-control system.”

He said such activity increases the “risk of incidents that could trigger an armed confrontation with potentially disastrous consequences.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in February that Arctic Sentry was launched as a result of “Russia’s increased military activity, and China’s growing interest in the High North.”

Lavrov said the West was also attempting to undermine Russia’s international cooperation in the Arctic with countries from the “Global Majority,” a term the Kremlin often uses to describe African and Asian countries.

Last month, at the NATO summit in Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump again pressed for the United States to take control of Greenland, which he said has become a national security concern because of increasing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.

‘Landmark’ Shipping Voyage

Moscow is keen on developing the Northern Sea Route, an Arctic shipping corridor that creates a shortcut between Europe and Northeast Asian markets, including China, South Korea and Japan. It could cut the time for a container ship by 10 days compared with the regular route via the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, according to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

In his article, Lavrov said a “landmark event” in Arctic shipping occurred on Aug. 19.

“For the first time, a container ship from China arrived at the port of Murmansk via the Northern Sea Route, a vital part of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor,” he said.

The Barents Observer reported that the vessel was the Xin Xin Hai-1, a cargo ship that sails under a Hong Kong flag.

Lavrov said the Arctic contributed at least 10 percent of Russia’s GDP and was home to more than 2.5 million Russian citizens.

He said Moscow was ready to cooperate with other nations over the development of the region.

“There are prospects for interaction in the Far North with Brazil, Indonesia, Iran and other BRICS countries,” Lavrov said, referring to an economic bloc which also includes India, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

“The vast resource, transport, and logistics potential of the Far North, its unique natural and climatic features, long-standing traditions of regional cooperation, and the rich cultural heritage of its indigenous peoples offer broad opportunities for advantageous partnership.”

Russia’s neighbor Norway said on Aug. 20 that it had expanded its Arctic brigade with an artillery battalion, an anti-aircraft battery, and a joint company.

“Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and the worsening security situation underline the need to build up the Finnmark Brigade as quickly as possible,” the Norwegian Armed Forces stated.

Norway will also ignore the European Union’s demands for a moratorium on hydrocarbon exploration in the Arctic Circle and continue drilling for oil and gas in the Barents Sea, the country’s energy minister said last week.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased fear among NATO member countries in Scandinavia, the Baltic, and eastern Europe that Russia poses a renewed threat, and there has been an uptick in defense spending as a result.

Moscow has previously dismissed allegations that it poses a ​threat to NATO.

Reuters contributed to this report.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spent Sunday fearmongering on public broadcaster ARD, warning that a potential victory for Alternative for Germany in next Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt election could inflict economic damage on the region.

Deutschland kann viel. Die Potenziale unseres Landes sind groß – und diese müssen wir nutzen. pic.twitter.com/4GFF5gtmyt

— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) August 31, 2026

Merz’s assessment conflicts with Nomura’s political analysis, which suggests investors no longer reflexively fear right-wing victories. Instead, markets are increasingly focused on the economic consequences of left-wing policies, particularly deindustrialization, elevated energy costs, and uncontrolled mass migration, all of which have been nothing short of nation-killing.

“If things turn out the way the polls suggest, this federal state will face significant problems,” Merz told broadcaster ARD. He questioned whether international companies would invest or build factories in a state governed by an AfD premier.

Polls show the AfD attracting more than 40% support, potentially double the roughly 20% backing for Merz’s Christian Democratic Union. The center-right party has governed Saxony-Anhalt for more than two decades.

“The state will suffer considerable damage if the scenario we currently fear comes to pass,” Merz said during the interview.

An AfD victory this coming weekend could produce Germany’s first state government led by the right-wing party.

Merz’s fearmongering comes as his approval ratings are the lowest recorded for any postwar German chancellor. Economic troubles have rocked Europe’s largest economy, while voters have grown increasingly frustrated with Berlin.

Andrzej Szczepaniak, a senior European economist and executive director at Nomura, wrote last week about “the seeds of political change” and noted that “politics in Europe is lurching towards more populism.”

Szczepaniak said, “Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not as fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today. Indeed, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is the standard-bearer for financial markets of how a populist right-wing political party can govern: fiscally prudent enough to show investors that the party can govern responsibly while focusing heavily on social issues, including immigration and culture wars, to keep grassroots supporters happy.”

He added, “Financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies.”

Polymarket:

Looking ahead, Szczepaniak noted that right-wing parties are positioned to make significant gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months.

Read the report.

Authored by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine

VIPS tells President Trump that once apprised of the reality on the ground (and in the air) by his intelligence advisors, he might choose to do what is in his power to end the disaster in Ukraine.

Dear President Trump:

The New York Times is reporting that the outlook for Russia in Ukraine is “bleak.” C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe is said to have explained that to the Russians while in Moscow Tuesday. He reportedly urged them “to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse.”

We write you on the chance you may be taken in by this latest song and dance. We believe it is orchestrated by the same kind of geniuses who told President Joe Biden to announce on July 13, 2023, in a major speech in Helsinki, that the Russians had “already lost the war” in Ukraine.

We suggest that you “kick the tires,” if they try to sell you that same car. Nothing could be further from the truth. Your predecessor was ill-served by intelligence. We suspect you are getting the same tendentious treatment from your own advisers. Indeed, many of them seem unconscionably relaxed about risking wider war with Russia over Ukraine.

We offer you, as we offered Biden, the following jogs to memory:

— December 3, 2022: “Russia is using up ammunition quite quickly. It’s pretty extraordinary. Our sense is that Russia is not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.” (National Intelligence Director Avril Haines)

— March 18, 2022: “Russia has lost in Ukraine. The West should recognize this Russian defeat.” (Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute)

— July 1 & July 7, 2023: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare; its economy badly damaged for years to come.” (C.I.A. Director William Burns)

The Church of Latter-Day Pundits

Two NY Times journalists who specialize in intelligence matters report Thursday that this latest version of the Russia-has-already-lost story is “the current C.I.A. director’s assessment.” They warn somewhat quizzically that, despite this, President Putin might ignore it “and choose to keep fighting.” But why would Putin do that?

Indeed, the Gray Lady and her intelligence sources seem quite baffled by why Putin would keep trying when, according to U.S. officials and pundits, he started losing three and a half years ago and continues to lose. Could it possibly be that it was they that were wrong – terribly wrong?

Dismissing that as a possibility, they perform a somersault, straighten up, and chose to blame Putin’s advisers who, the Times says, have not “given Putin honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.”

If Black Humor is at work here, we do not find it funny. The slaughter in Ukraine brings hundreds of victims daily.

Russia is methodically advancing in Donbass along a thousand-mile front, it is weathering drone attacks on its oil and civilian infrastructure with enhanced interception and has enforced a virtual blockade on Ukraine’s largest port, Odessa, with withering aerial attacks. Ukraine’s manpower and interceptor shortages make it impossible for it to ever recover its lost territory, as you acknowledged after your meeting with President Putin in Alaska.

Mr. President, if you were given access to reality-based, honest intelligence, you would be able to decide for yourself whose advisers have gotten it right over these past five years. And, once apprised of the reality on ground (and in the air), you might choose to do what is in your power to end the disaster in Ukraine.

Déjà Vu

This is not the first time we advised a president to seek unbiased advice with a view toward avoiding unnecessary, catastrophic war. We did that just a few hours after Colin Powell’s deceptive presentation to the U.N. Security Council on February 5, 2003.

Today, we strongly suggest that you broaden your circle of advisers, as we urged President George W. Bush to do then, in our first VIPS Memorandum, which ended with this recommendation:

“After watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”

FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY (VIPS)

• Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer (ret.)

• Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.); Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research

• Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)

• Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)

• Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer

• John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee

• Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003

• Douglas MacGregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)

• Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)

• Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer/NE, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)

• Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq

• Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)

• Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)

• Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War

Marine Le Pen would win France’s 2027 presidential election against every major rival now being measured, according to a major survey by Elabe published on August 29 for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche.

France elects its president in two rounds: a crowded first round on April 18 cuts the field to the top two – no one will win outright – and the survivors meet again on May 2. Elabe has Le Pen at 34% to 35.5% in round one depending on who else runs, far clear of the pack, then beating every potential runoff opponent it tested. The new poll comes on the heels of a Nomura report which showed Le Pen with a commanding first-round lead. 

The rest of the field is fighting over second place. Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister and the most plausible face of the post-Macron center, leads that pack at about 17% when he stands alone. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on 14% to 14.5%, having lost his summer lift. Raphaël Glucksmann, now in the race, is between 11.5% and 14%. Gabriel Attal’s presence mainly splits the moderate vote.

According to the poll, here’s Le Pen:

• versus Philippe: 52.5% to 47.5%
• versus Attal or Glucksmann: 57% to 43%
• versus Mélenchon: 69.5% to 30.5%

For a generation, French presidential politics assumed a front républicain: a cross-party second-round squeeze that would keep the National Rally out of the Élysée. It elected Chirac 82-18 over her father in 2002 and Macron twice over her; yet the margin has narrowed every time. According to the Elabe poll, that squeeze is no longer automatic. Le Pen is not only first in April. She is ahead in May against every opponent Elabe put up. Even against Philippe, the closest of them, she leads by five points.

Le Pen’s popularity has perhaps been boosted by her status as a martyr – created by what some might consider establishment efforts to throw her off track. On July 7 the Paris court of appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case. It shortened the ban on holding office enough for her to stand and imposed a year of house arrest with an electronic tag. Her appeal to the Cour de Cassation freezes that sentence while she campaigns. The court has said it aims to rule before the first round. A confirmed tag would not take her off the April ballot. It would frame the May runoff. Le Pen herself has said she could not campaign tagged – though sentence remission could free her by early 2027 either way. Jordan Bardella remains the party’s designated stand-in.

At the summer gathering of MEDEF (France’s main employers’ federation) at Roland-Garros on August 27 she set out a €125 billion savings path and a plan to let long-tenure workers retire at 60 to 62, costed at about €9 billion and described as a “societal choice.” French banks are still wary of financing National Rally campaigns. On these numbers, voters are less so.

Bond markets are pricing the wider strain – as French 10-year yields have been near 4.1%, their highest since late 2008. The extra yield over German Bunds is about 80 basis points, the wide end of a 59-to-85 range over the past year. That premium reflects a hung Assembly, a government that has already stumbled on the budget, a 2027 finance bill due in October that may not pass in ordinary form, a deficit still near 5% of GDP, and IMF debt figures already around 118.5% this year and through 120% in 2027. 

The working rule of French politics was that Le Pen could reach the steps of the Élysée and not the door – but rules were made to be broken.