Many Americans have forgotten the name. We haven’t.
In 2014, David Brat, then a little-known economics professor, stunned the political world by defeating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a Republican primary in Virginia. At the time, most observers viewed the upset as an isolated event – a local revolt against an established leader who had lost touch with his district. In retrospect, it was something much larger. David Brat’s victory was an early warning shot. It signaled that a powerful populist movement was building within the Republican Party, one fueled by frustration, distrust of institutions, anger toward political elites, and a conviction among many voters that neither party was listening to them. Two years later, that same current helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency and fundamentally reshape the Republican Party.
As we watched with dismay the results of the New York Democratic congressional primaries, the memory of David Brat came floating back.
What happened in New York may prove to be a similar moment for Democrats. For years, political analysts have treated populism as primarily a Republican phenomenon. That was always a mistake. Populism is not an ideology. It is a political force. It can emerge from the left or the right. It thrives whenever large numbers of citizens conclude that the people running the country’s major institutions no longer understand or care about their concerns.
Today, both parties are confronting their own versions of that phenomenon.
The populism that has transformed the Republican Party often channels its frustrations toward immigration, globalization, cultural change, and government dependency. The populism now emerging within parts of the Democratic coalition directs its anger toward concentrated wealth, large corporations, and what it sees as entrenched political and economic power. The targets differ. The emotions do not. At its core, populism reflects a broad loss of confidence in elites – political, economic, academic, media, and corporate. Millions of Americans increasingly believe that the institutions that once commanded public trust are no longer delivering results, no longer accountable, and no longer responsive.
That sentiment has been building for years. The financial crisis damaged confidence in Wall Street. Endless political gridlock damaged confidence in Washington. Social media accelerated distrust of traditional news organizations. Rising housing costs, student debt, stagnant wages, and growing economic inequality left many younger Americans questioning whether the system works for them at all. When confidence in institutions erodes, voters look elsewhere.
They become more willing to embrace candidates who promise disruption rather than stability, confrontation rather than compromise, and sweeping change rather than incremental reform.
As former members of Congress who represented New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District from opposite political parties, we find this trend deeply troubling. American democracy has historically depended on a broad center. Progress came not because one side achieved total victory, but because competing interests eventually found common ground. The system was designed to reward coalition-building and compromise. Today, compromise is increasingly viewed as weakness.
Moderation is often treated as betrayal. Political incentives now favor outrage over persuasion and ideological purity over practical governance. That dynamic is affecting both parties.
The Republican Party has already experienced a dramatic populist transformation.
The Democratic Party may now be entering a similar period of internal upheaval.
Whether that process ultimately reshapes Democratic politics as profoundly as Trump’s movement reshaped the GOP remains to be seen. But the signs are increasingly difficult to ignore.
What concerns us most is that the underlying forces driving these movements are not going away. Neither party has yet found a convincing answer to the frustrations that fuel populism. Economic insecurity remains widespread. Institutional trust remains low. Political polarization continues to deepen. Younger voters are increasingly skeptical of traditional leadership. Social media amplifies anger faster than solutions. These are not temporary conditions. They are structural challenges.
As strange as American politics has seemed over the last decade, we should not assume we have reached the end of the story. We may only be in the middle chapters. The populist wave that transformed the Republican Party did not stop with Eric Cantor’s defeat. It gathered strength over time. The same could happen on the Democratic side.
We hope we are wrong. We hope both parties rediscover the value of practical problem-solving, responsible leadership, and the political center. Our country needs strong institutions and leaders willing to govern rather than simply mobilize outrage. But history suggests that once public confidence in elites begins to break down, the forces unleashed are difficult to contain. David Brat’s victory was not the cause of the populist transformation of the Republican Party. It was a symptom. What happened in New York may be another symptom. And if that is true, American politics is about to get a lot more unpredictable.
The tide is rising. We may not be able to control it. But we would be wise to understand it.
GOP Uses Kavanaugh’s Own Playbook To Take Another Swing At Birthright Citizenship
Last month, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship. Justice Kavanaugh joined that majority in striking down the order, but he also filed a separate partial dissent, and his reasoning did Republicans a favor.
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority in Trump v. Barbara, a 5-4 decision joined by Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, Barrett, and Jackson, and leaned on the 1898 case U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark to hold that the 14th Amendment guarantees citizenship to “all children born in the United States and subject to its power.”
Kavanaugh concluded Trump’s order conflicted with an existing federal statute, not the Constitution or the 14th Amendment specifically. His complaint was narrower. Trump’s order collided with a law Congress passed in the spirit of an amendment conservatives say was written mainly to secure citizenship for freed slaves and their children. Kavanaugh’s fix was simple. Congress could rewrite the statute.
The Court today holds that the Order violates the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution. I respectfully disagree with the Court’s constitutional holding. In my view, the Executive Order does not violate the Fourteenth Amendment. But the Order does contravene a federal statute, 8 U. S. C. §1401(a). Congress could – consistent with the Fourteenth Amendment – amend §1401(a) or otherwise enact new legislation establishing exceptions to birthright citizenship for children born to foreign citizens unlawfully or temporarily in the country. But Congress has not yet done so.
Now the GOP is seeking to end birthright citizenship for illegal immigrants via the roadmap that Kavanaugh laid out. Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) filed legislation on Monday called the Citizenship Act. It would strip automatic citizenship from children born in the United States to illegal immigrants and birth tourists by classifying their parents as “invaders” under federal statute, a designation drawn from the 2025 executive order President Trump signed declaring the crisis at the southern border an invasion.
Its text states that “any person who enters the United States without authorization or for the purpose of engaging in birth tourism is considered an invader,” and it strips their children of automatic citizenship on that basis.
The bill leaves the Constitution untouched. The bill also finds cover from a source Republicans rarely quote approvingly. In the 2025 case U.S. v. CASA, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, an Obama appointee, confirmed in a separate opinion that “children born of alien enemies in hostile occupation” fall outside birthright citizenship. She stopped short of calling illegal immigrants invaders. Banks’ bill closes that gap for her.
Beyond the Wong Kim Ark language, the bill rests on Article IV’s requirement that the federal government “protect each state against invasion,” and Congress’ Article I power to “establish a uniform rule of naturalization,” a direct challenge to blue-state officials who have floated their own citizenship rules.
The bill’s supporting material goes further than the usual border-security framing. It notes that some Mexican nationals view northward migration as a means of reclaiming territory lost in the military conflicts of the 1840s, as formalized in the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, the agreement that made Texas and the surrounding Southwest part of the United States. It also cites Chinese birth tourism operations encouraged by the Chinese Communist Party as evidence that birthright citizenship has become a vector for foreign influence rather than a settled matter of domestic law.
“The Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship decision was an unprecedented assault on American sovereignty, and we must do whatever it takes to save our country,” Banks told Fox News Digital. He added, “I’m leading the Citizenship Act to reverse the effects of this consequential ruling and ensure the millions of illegal aliens that invaded our country can’t continue to exploit our immigration system.”
The Citizenship Act faces a much steeper climb than Kavanaugh’s opinion ever cleared. Any immigration bill needs 60 votes to break a filibuster, and Democrats have shown zero appetite for handing Trump a win on birthright citizenship after fighting his executive order all the way to the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh may have offered a roadmap, but the Senate remains a problem.
The US-Iran MoU appears to have collapsed sooner than we had thought.
With both sides striking the other, US efforts will turn to ensuring energy can flow through Hormuz ‘the hard way’ via escorting ships through it.
For now, markets are saying the US can ‘comfortably bomb’ and ‘there is no pain’ even if the ‘MoU are receding’, mostly due to finite SPR drains and low Chinese oil imports.
That gives the US a window for action: if it can keep enough oil flowing through Hormuz, which is our base case, it underlines military action can move markets in a desired direction; if it fails, we face a far larger energy crisis with far less in the tank as mitigants – or a geostrategic reckoning.
We argued the June 17 US-Iran memorandum of understanding temporarily suited both sides but would last, at best, until the US midterm elections and would ultimately collapse due to its inherent contradictions over tolls, sanctions, Lebanon, and uranium. At time of writing on 13 July, the US and Iran have separately declared the “ceasefire” and “diplomacy” as over. Both were striking the other, albeit not yet all-out as at the start of the war. Typically, the IRGC has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed – and the US that it is still very much open for business.
There is no pain
Regardless, the market response has been constrained. At Asian market open on Monday, Brent was only up around 4% to $79, for example (Figure 1). In short, markets continue to treat a new active conflict around the Strait of Hormuz as containable.
That’s the case for several reasons. First, inventory draws have eased immediate pressure. Second, China is keeping its oil imports subdued. Third, some energy workarounds have emerged. Lastly, there has been some demand destruction.
This is not a sustainable long-term dynamic, but for a few weeks, or months at most, the market may continue to say “there is no pain” in spot oil prices even if wide crack spreads were already telling another story on refined products before this latest fighting started.
The key question is if this is a temporary or a longer-term geopolitical issue: arguably it’s both. However, the US may be gambling it can resolve the Hormuz situation to the energy market’s satisfaction before things become critical.
MoU are receding
The Hormuz disagreement stems from the MoU’s Article 5, which stated:
“Upon the signing of this MoU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by Iran, will be instated within 30 days. Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran took this to mean it controlled all of Hormuz, including outside its own territorial waters, and could toll maritime traffic there.
The US took it to mean that Iran couldn’t and set up an alternative toll-free route via Omani waters. Iran has since attacked ships using this alternative route. That was the proximate trigger for the latest rounds of US strikes on Iranian facilities on islands within Hormuz and along its coastline aimed at degrading Tehran’s ability to project control over the waterway; and of Iranian counterstrikes.
The MoU therefore collapsed over the easiest of its contradictions to resolve, tolls, which could have been relabelled as ‘fees’. That presents a daunting challenge for market optimism as it implies US-Iran tensions are here to stay on multiple fronts.
However, it also focuses the immediate problem –and US and Iranian attention– on physical control of Hormuz.
A distant ship smoke on the horizon
The message from US CENTCOM is clear: “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway. US forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations. Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.” In pledging this, the US aims to ensure that Hormuz doesn’t bother markets the way that it did earlier in the war. That implies:
1. Taking out Iranian facilities in and along Hormuz so the threat to the southern Omani channel is diminished.
2. Providing defensive cover for ships passing through from drones, missiles, small boats, and mines, etc.
3. Shielding GCC allies, particularly their energy and critical infrastructure, but where stocks of missile interceptors are reportedly low. Very notably, Iran has so far not struck at these key GCC facilities again in recent attacks. That could suggest Tehran realises there are limits to what it can do to its neighbours if it also wants to offer alternative regional leadership ahead.
These US tasks, mirroring the late-80’s Operation Earnest Will in the Iran-Iraq War’s Tanker phase, may require help from the GCC and NATO. While US allies have been reticent to (publicly) act in this regard until now –and the Saudis blocked Operation Project Freedom with the same goal– that dynamic may change with the recent narrow avoidance of an energy crisis and the narrative that Iran alone is now blocking Hormuz.
Moreover, it has been revealed that the US continued with a covert version of Project Freedom anyway without Saudi assistance.
You are only coming through in waves
It’s credible to assume US (and GCC/coalition) naval escorts with air cover could move substantial energy volumes through Hormuz via Omani waters even under duress. Recent operational data suggest the US military directly escorted tankers carrying significant amounts of oil successfully through the Strait. The US claims this was as high as 7 million barrels per day. Sustained throughput of meaningful amounts of oil and products via these military escorts appears theoretically feasible, albeit at higher costs from insurance premia and longer transit times. That turns a serious supply shock into a manageable disruption.
At the same time, it’s realistic to expect that on top of a cancelled Iranian oil sanctions waiver, the US could reimpose its blockade on Iranian oil to increase economic pressure on it.
We can also expect more efforts to build alternative supply chains and pipelines that avoid Hormuz as possible around it. None of them are a short-term palliative to match the Saudi East West pipeline to Yanbu, but in the longer run they will reduce Iran’s leverage even further.
Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying
President Trump has called the Iranians “liars” and “scum” and Iran has stated it wants “revenge” and to kill him. Both sides have made their red lines explicit and have shown they are prepared to enforce them kinetically. The most positive near-term path is continued tit-for-tat pressure, punctuated by attempts at limited talks that produce little beyond contradictory statements.
Markets pricing for a resolution of this crisis from a diplomatic perspective or a ‘TACO’ are likely wrong. However, US hard power could also achieve the same benign outcome.
I can’t explain, you would not understand
Markets and analysts are rightly confused by all the contradictory signals being seen around this crisis: declining inventories, wide crack spreads, the renewed cut-off of Iranian oil, intensifying military action and perhaps more later – yet energy prices have not blown out. It perhaps helps to underline who has been winning and losing and who could emerge as the final victor and how.
This is not how I(ran) am
Iran was heavily beaten militarily while exposing key US defensive weaknesses; then it was handed a win in peace negotiations due to energy market pressure on Trump; now, with oil prices contained, it has overplayed its weak hand and is under a new phase of US pressure:
Iran could potentially lose effective control of Hormuz.
Iran gets no sanctions relief as well as no oil sales if the US blockades it.
Iran gets no assets unfrozen nor a $300bn in FDI for an economy shattered by the recent war.
In Lebanon, peace progress has been on Israeli and Lebanese not Iranian/Hezbollah terms;
Iran’s proxy in Syria has been lost and is working on a pipeline to help Iraq avoid Hormuz; Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias are being constrained by the government; the Houthis remain quiet; and Hamas has agreed to cede power in Gaza, if not disarm.
Iran’s highly enriched uranium will clearly not be discussed, with reports Tehran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities. The US will have to address this too, but that perhaps via the air rather than boots on the ground, as in 2025.
None of that means the US is aiming at regime change even if Israel says it is. Yet, Tehran could find itself regionally shrunken, economically ‘caged’, and geopolitically ignored.
But that’s only if the US wins the Battle of Hormuz. As repeatedly stressed, a US defeat or retreat would flip the script. That’s why we have continuously argued the US will use kinetic force (and, if absolutely necessary, radical economic statecraft in the energy sector, i.e., NAFTA > NAPHTHA)
I have become Comfortably Bomb
Markets can therefore enjoy a form of geopolitical anaesthesia: “geopolitical risk equals higher energy prices” is not firing fully because so much oil has been injected into our global system.
The US SPR cushion could last a few more months at current rates of depletion; so could Japan’s SPR; and China has kept its oil import volumes subdued and has vast reserves. Indeed, there’s little logic –beyond a statecraft escalation vs the US– for China to restart buying oil aggressively while the US undertakes military action to try to free up Hormuz which, ordinarily, would suit China. (The only caveat being that Iran has promised a ‘friends and family’ discount to Chinese ships on its proposed tolls.)
As such, the market seems to be telling the US to ‘comfortably bomb’ – but only on the unspoken assumption that its attempts to keep Hormuz open work. That is our geopolitical base case given the historical track record and the overall stakes.
However, if it fails, and/or if Iran steps up its attacks against GCC energy and infrastructure regardless of the regional bridges (and refineries and desalination plants, etc) that it burns, then we would face a serious global energy crisis, and with much less left in the tank as potential mitigants.
At the least, the US –with midterms looming– would again have to pause until after them; and at the most, we could see the return of narratives heard a few months ago and still echoing in places – that the US is unable to use its military power to achieve its strategic goals, with enormous geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences.
The full implications of that thought should be enough to leave any strategist comfortably numb.
Trump Formally Notifies Congress Of Iran War Resumption – Third Consecutive Night Of Strikes Ensue
Summary
Trump formally notifies Congress US has resumed war with Iran.
Trump warns will hit Iran ‘hard’ tonight or tomorrow; Pentagon confirms 3rd night of strikes has begun.
Reports of Houthi missiles launched on Saudi Arabia: oil extends gains near month-highs.
Trump says US blockade of Iran ports ‘reinstated’: states that US to be reimbursed at rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit. CENTCOM affirms with closure message.
Strikes escalated over weekend: US hit over 140 Iranian military targets; Iran attacks US-linked facilities across the Gulf.
Shipping tensions boil: Iran claims the strait is closed, but commercial vessels continue transiting under US protection.
Oil prices climb: on rising risk to global shipping & energy markets, as diplomacy clearly unraveling.
We are very far past the little “excursion” the administration talked about in the earlier phases of Operation Epic Fury, per reports late this afternoon and early evening:
President Trump formally notified Congress last week that the U.S. has resumed military strikes against Iran, providing the Pentagon an extra 60 days to utilize U.S. forces in the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) theater absent congressional approval.
Trump told lawmakers in a 2-page letter on Friday that U.S. strikes resumed against Iran on July 7, alerting legislators in line with the War Powers Act, which stipulates the commander-in-chief has to inform Congress within two days of the military conducting kinetic action abroad.
President Trump is still insisting that the US won’t get sucked into a ground war, akin the Iraq or Afghan wars. “United States ground forces are not involved in these strikes. These strikes are limited, measured, planned and executed in a manner designed to minimize civilian casualties,” the president wrote in the letter.
Overnight reports say Iran has in turn renewed its retaliation on Gulf allies hosting American bases, especially Bahrain.
Pentagon Announced 3rd Night of Major Strikes
In case anyone had doubts that the region has witnessed a return to full-scale US-Iran war, CENTCOM has announced that it has begun launching the third consecutive night of strikes on Iran in the overnight hours (local):
This as President Trump has claimed Monday that the US had a “deal with [Iran] two days ago” but that Tehran wanted “to negotiate it further”. However when asked by a reporter whether he thinks a negotiated settlement is no longer possible Trump responded: “I never reached that conclusion.”
He explained his beleif that the “most effective” way to put pressure on Iran is va a combination of a blockade and “hitting them”. Earlier he and the Pentagon announced that a full blockade of Iranian ports is back on.
The US is going to hit Iran hard on Monday night and Tuesday, Trump has previewed in remarks to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
When asked about the MoU, Trump said it was a “test” for Iran, which “they did not honor”. The remarks came just as reports emerged of more IRGC attacks on vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
OIL PRICES EXTEND GAINS IN POST SETTLEMENT TRADE, RISES 10%
There’s a rich irony in terms of the day this will be implemented, an anniversary of sorts:
The US has said it will reimpose its naval blockade of Iran on Tuesday, on what would have been the 11th anniversary of the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The landmark nuclear was finalised in Vienna on July 14, 2015 after being agreed by Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.
The negative return to full war headlines have come one after another on Monday
IRAN’S TASNIM SAYS SEVERAL ‘VIOLATING’ VESSELS WERE TARGETED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN ‘HARD’ TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TRUMP: IRAN MOU WAS BUILT TO TEST
TRUMP NOTIFIES CONGRESS OF NEW WAR AGAINST IRAN: POLITICO
TRUMP ON IRAN: WE HAD A DEAL YESTERDAY, THEY BREAK DEALS
Iranian state media cites the army stating that it targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, while it also targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles
Oil Surges To Month-Highs on Yemen Missile Attack on Saudi Arabia
Reports are emerging out of Saudi Arabia of inbound ballistic missile attacks on its air bases and/or an international airport. With Houthi potential involvement unfolding, there are fears that this war is now rapidly expanding. Oil is reacting to what is both the complete unraveling of the MoU and new signs of the Houthis joining the war on Iran’s side:
US blockade encompasses entirety of Iranian coastline: RTRS
Saudi defenses dealing with Houthi missile attack: Alekhbariya
Tasnim reports of an attack on Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia
Yemeni war media identifies the coordinates of important airports and ports in Saudi Arabia that will likely be targeted by Houthi attacks, reports Tasnim
Explosions heard on Iran’s Larak Island in Hormuz Strait: Tasnim
Several violating ships were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Tasnim
At the Commander in Chief’s direction, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET.
CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.
The resumption of the U.S. blockade against Iran follows the initial implementation from April 13 to June 18. CENTCOM forces redirected more than 140 compliant vessels, disabled nine non-compliant ships, and allowed over 50 commercial vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass through the blockade during the two-month period.
All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.
Iran Foreign Minister response:
POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service.
Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER.
Trump: Blockade Reinstated, US To Be ‘Reimbursed’ on 20% of Cargo
A stunning new Trump statement via Truth Social, proposing that the United States will collect an astounding rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. He has declared the US military is “reinstating the Iranian blockade” due to the IRGC continuing to try and enforce Iran’s own protocol. This could of course amount to a US ‘fee’ of tens of millions of dollars for each vessel, significantly more than what Iran was seeking to impose. Iran’s retaliation continues? New reports of major incident in Saudi Arabia:
Oil extends gains, rise 7% to session highs:
Oil jumps this morning on the bellow succession of headlines…
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SPOKESPERSON: WE CONTINUE TO ASSERT OUR AUTHORITY AND CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP: REINSTATING THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE
TRUMP: US WILL BE REIMBURSED 20% ON CARGO FROM HORMUZ
Trump: US to Take Over Strait & Get Paid For It
President Trump in surprising commentary issued to “Fox & Friends” has said the United States will probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and should be reimbursed for controlling it. His words have raised eyebrows given Washington’s stance has been that no one can collect tolls for transit through the vital international waterway. He said once the US gains control of it, following a weekend bombing campaign on Iranian coastal sites, “we’ll probably run it” and “we should be reimbursed for that.”
“We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that,” he says in the Fox phone interview.
Again, US officials have throughout Operation Epic Fury voiced that it is an illegal outrage for Iran to suggest it would charge fees, but now…
Trump: “We’re gonna keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. We should be reimbursed for that. When we do that, we’re gonna be reimbursed. We’re gonna get paid.” pic.twitter.com/O4ckjB2FkK
Below is a fuller transcript of the Monday morning exchange:
Fox: It looks like they’re back to trying to take control of the Strait, what’s your response?
Trump: Well, we’re taking over the straight. They have nothing, they’ve got nothing. So…. something that nobody knows, yesterday they had an eleven hour meeting, everything’s eleven hours with these guys you know you can’t settle a one sentence in, one hour, in one minute… It should be one minute—But we had a deal, but nobody knows, we had a deal, it was a done deal, but then they broke it, they always break it. And so we’re just going to hit them very hard. And we’re gonna keep the uh Strait, and we’ll probably run it, we’ll become the guardian of the Strait, maybe we’ll call it “The guardian angel of the Strait”. And we should reimbursed for that, when we do that we’re gonna be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy, they’re on our side. We guarded the Strait for 50 years, more, and, we never got paid for it. They made all the money and the US was just, you know, not, it’s just amazing. We guarded it for nothing.
The Iranians have been quick to respond, with its top military command asserting that Iran will not allow the US to intervene in the management of the strait. State-run IRNA also states:
Iran says we will not be forced to pay the ‘enemy’ for ship passage.
So this sets up the warring sides for further clashes in the Persian Gulf region, as absolutist demands continued to be adhered to, and red lines continue to be tested and blown past. Below is more from the Iranian Foreign Ministry articulating enforcement of its passage protocol:
Iran’s FM Spox. Esmail Baghaei:
The United States bears direct responsibility for the recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Americans reneged from day one; they are trying to bypass the secure route coordinated with Iran. pic.twitter.com/zlkvM6EkUS
The US and Iran exchanged another round of strikes overnight, extending a weeklong surge in fighting and casting dark clouds of uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping.
US Central Command revealed US forces unleashed air-delivered munitions on dozens of Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar systems, missile launch sites, and drone capabilities, bringing the weekend total to about 140 targets. This move aimed to degrade the IRGC’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Hormuz chokepoint, which it has done over the past week.
Iran responded with attacks on US-linked facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman, while also claiming it intercepted two vessels using what it called an “illegal route” through Hormuz.
IRGC Fires Warning Shots
Early Monday, Iranian state TV reported that IRGC forces fired “warning shots” at multiple ships attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint.
“This morning, two ships that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz illegally were targeted and stopped by warning shots fired by the navy of the Revolutionary Guards,” said a correspondent on state TV.
Tehran has declared the strait closed until further notice, but the US military, President Trump, and maritime monitors say the southern route remains passable.
Bloomberg data shows the LNG tanker Al Hamra safely transited the Hormuz chokepoint over the weekend and is now full steam ahead in the Gulf of Oman. Axios noted earlier that 20 commercial ships managed to transit the Hormuz chokepoint in coordination with the US military.
Bloomberg data only tracks ships with transponders on.
Crude Climbs as War Back on Menu
Brent crude futures traded up 3.5% to the midpoint of $78 a barrel, while WTI futures are up around 3.4% to $73.85 amid increasingly heated tit-for-tat attacks.
Here is Deutsche Bank equity research analyst Chris Robertson’s summary of developments last week and through the weekend:
Last week, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice. Iran attacked a commercial container ship attempting to transit the region, causing a fire aboard the vessel.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JIMC) said on Sunday that the southern Omani route remains available, but that the threat level is rated as “severe”.
Regardless of any claims around the Strait being closed or open, what matters is that commercial ship owners are likely not willing to risk transit in an active war zone, putting ships and crews at risk of attack.
We reiterate our initial concerns that despite major destruction of traditional Iranian naval vessels and assets, the ongoing threat that shipowners face is asymmetric warfare technologies such as drones and missiles. These types of threats are much harder to predict or plan for, thereby maximizing uncertainty related to mitigating voyage risks.
We expect transit activity will slow, especially as it relates to vessels planning to enter the Gulf through the Strait which, unlike exiting activity, is the real sign that conditions are normalizing. We believe that an ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to downward pressure on shortterm tanker rates as ships remain in other regions, thereby increasing effective supply of those ships.
Diplomacy Unravels
As of Monday morning, it is clear that US-Iran diplomacy is unraveling, while US forces are systematically degrading the IRGC’s ability to close the maritime chokepoint. Commercial ships continue to transit the waterway, undermining Tehran’s claim that the critical waterway is effectively shut.
Tehran must also recognize the longer-term strategic risk: every disruption accelerates global investment in pipelines, export terminals, and other infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz. Once those alternatives are operational (Read Here), Tehran’s greatest source of geopolitical leverage will evaporate. Then what?
* * *
Overnight/Weekend Developments
US President Trump threatened that the US military would “completely decimate and destroy all areas” of Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out an assassination on him.
US forces said they struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and were also reported to have carried out another round of strikes on Sunday, while Iran targeted at least five US allies across the Middle East in drone and missile assaults early on Sunday, as well as announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. However, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said the path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, while it was separately reported that a Chinese tanker transited through Hormuz via an Iran-designated route.
US official said around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination, according to Axios.
US military announced on Sunday evening that it began a new wave of strikes against Iran to continue degrading its ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
US Central Command denied a claim by Iran that three US service members were killed in Kuwait, while it stated that there have been no reports of US casualties in the region, with all personnel accounted for and safe. CENTCOM later commented that it completed a new wave of offensive strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait’s military said three border posts were attacked and that a drilling platform owned by the Kuwait Oil Company was struck in a drone attack, while it was separately reported that US intelligence sources noted observations that Iran was preparing to carry out a massive attack on the UAE and Kuwait.
Iran said it caused heavy damage to Jordan’s Prince Hassan Airbase, as well as claimed it targeted the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar and a US Navy logistics base in Dukm, Oman. Furthermore, Iran also targeted Kuwait and the US base in Bahrain.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement, vowing to avenge the death of his father and said that it was the demand of the nation.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which it said were a violation of the ceasefire deal and the UN Charter, while it warned Gulf states over the use of territory for US attacks.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said no action against Iran should go unanswered and called for a pre-set response to any attempt against Iran, its military, Supreme Leader and officials.
Iranian lawmaker and member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Kashkavi, said Iran prefers to manage the Strait of Hormuz through cooperation with regional states, particularly Oman, and stated that the clear official position is that future management of the Strait will be arranged by Iran.
Iran denied social media reports that claimed the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, while its nuclear agency said all units continue to operate normally and that the plant is in a safe and stable condition.
Iraq’s PM is to visit Washington on Monday, while oil and gas deals are expected to be announced, although the Islamic Resistance in Iraq warned the government against US economic deals and demanded a US troop withdrawal.
Yemen’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Yemen would continue its support of Iran in the face of ongoing US and Israeli aggression.
Israeli artillery conducted further shelling in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Explosions were heard around Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island on Monday afternoon, Mehr News reported, while there is also the possibility of clashes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Reported fire at Kharg Island appears to be a result of routine flaring, according to Nour News.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. He added that the MoU is in “crisis” phase. Muscat talks with Oman were solely focused on the Strait of Hormuz. On the recent strikes, none of the US bases in any country in the region have been removed from the target list and that the defensive strikes of Iran are solely against the bases, facilities and positions used by the US to attack Iran, including their logistical and support facilities. In terms of further talks, mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators.
Iran’s IRGC said only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is to end US military interventions and respect the sovereignty of the countries bordering it.
There is no clear timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the experimental areas in southern Lebanon amid a policy of consolidation and non-compliance with the framework agreement, Al Araby reported citing sources.
Why Is China Advertising Insane War Drones On Facebook
The proliferation of low-cost suicide drones and interceptor drones appears to be accelerating as nation-states begin stockpiling these expendable platforms, reflecting a rapid and structural shift in modern warfare toward mass, attritable weapons.
More concerning is that some of these drones appear to be marketed far beyond traditional military channels and potentially sold to the highest bidder.
We have already identified what appear to be Chinese companies advertising advanced dual-use drone systems on Facebook, suggesting that drone warfare technologies could soon be easily accessible on the commercial market.
Various companies on Facebook appear to be marketing low-cost suicide drones and interceptor drones that look on par with those seen in Ukraine, as shown on Reels.
Here are some of those advertising videos featured on Reels:
When reaching out to what appear to be Chinese or Hong Kong-based drone companies selling advanced AI interceptor drones to anyone, you’re greeted with a sales document:
Pricing sheet.
The central question is whether these exporters are complying with China’s Export Control Law and the 2024 regulations governing dual-use items. The potential national security risk is clear: low-cost drone systems could be acquired by criminal groups, terrorist networks, or other non-state threat actors with limited technical or financial barriers.
A possible early warning came from Mexico, where authorities recovered a fiber-optic drone. The discovery suggests that technologies refined on modern battlefields, such as in Ukraine, may already be migrating toward the US homeland and other allied countries.
Cox Media Heir Turned Communist Financier Arrested In Spain, Faces US Extradition
Jim “Fergie” Chambers, the Communist centi-millionaire and heir to the massive Cox media fortune, was arrested in Ibiza at the request of the US Justice Department and is awaiting possible extradition on federal charges linked to “international money laundering… with the intent to provide material support to and resources to foreign terrorist organizations,” according to The Grayzone on Monday, citing new details from the sealed indictment.
The indictment alleges that Chambers transferred funds from US banks to accounts in Tunisia with the intent to support foreign terrorist organizations.
The Grayzone notes that the sealed indictment has little evidence that Chambers has donated any money to “foreign terrorist organizations.” It merely states “Chambers made numerous transfers of funds from banks in the US to banks in Tunisia,” where he relocated in late 2023.
Chambers is the founder of the Babochki Collective and a major backer of Stop Cop City, Palestine Action US (later renamed Unity of Fields), and related legal defense efforts. He allegedly funded bail, legal fees, and direct-action campaigns targeting police-training projects and Israeli-linked defense firms, while also building networks with far-left activists.
A communist and convert to Islam from New York, Chambers has pledged to use his $250 million fortune to fund “revolutionary organizing.”
The indictment also alleges that, after fleeing the US in 2023, he transferred about $7.5 million out of the country in order to seek opportunities to provide material support to Hamas, Middle East Eye reported.
There are numerous reports that Chambers has possibly supported or interfaced with designated terrorist groups, including Samidoun, which the US Treasury identified as a “sham charity serving as an international fundraiser for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization,” and Middle East Children’s Alliance, which has been cited by US and allied governments for links to the PFLP.
Additional US groups he has possibly supported or interfaced with include China-based Marxist Roy Singham’s NGO sphere, including ANSWER Coalition, Party for Socialism and Liberation, and Newsclick, as well as student and campus mobilization networks (such as Students for Justice in Palestine) and political prisoner advocacy groups. Chambers’ own Berkshire Communists project in Massachusetts has served as a local hub for organizing and arms training within this network.
City Journal’s Stu Smith wrote in a recent report, “Chambers is one of the main funders of America’s radical Left. His money has flowed to a host of projects in the “anti-imperialism” organizing space,” adding, “Chambers claims that he and Singham are effectively the two primary financiers of the US radical left.” Despite this, the two have apparently been at loggerheads—a conflict that has now gone public.”
🚨 Fergie Chambers, heir to the Cox media fortune and a major funder of militant pro-Palestine groups, was detained in Spain as the Trump administration seeks his extradition on federal charges carrying up to 30 years in prison.pic.twitter.com/4YrIyZSR8q
Chambers’ arrest comes ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s planned meeting this Thursday of high-level officials from 60 nations that will begin to problem-solve how to curb transnational far-left terrorism across the Western world.
Rubio Convenes 60-Nation Summit To Confront Transnational Far-Left Terrorism https://t.co/lAnQqeBWYL
Last month, Fox News’ Asra Nomani reported that US Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York, authorized by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, is examining whether Singham, NGOs he funded, or their leaders committed wire fraud, bank fraud, money laundering, or other financial crimes.
FIRST ON FOX: A federal grand jury is investigating China-based tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham over alleged financial improprieties involving $278 million that investigators say moved through his financial network over the past decade.
Smith also noted, “Congressional scrutiny of the Singham network has recently intensified. Several House committees have sought documentation from affiliated organizations. Lawmakers have also referred The People’s Forum to the IRS, urging review and possible revocation of its tax-exempt status, and have asked then-Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Singham under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.”
Meanwhile, Calla Walsh, a former Democratic Party operative who worked for Democratic Senators Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren, met Chambers several years ago while working with Unity of Fields. She was recently seen on Iranian television praising slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the “greatest anti-imperialist leader” of her lifetime.
“Ayatollah Khamenei was the greatest anti-imperialist leader to have lived during my lifetime,” Walsh said.
Former Elizabeth Warren staffer who called for the United States to be abolished as justice for Khamenei, attended his funeral and called him one of the greatest leaders of her lifetime pic.twitter.com/WSzpzcpd1R
Oddly enough, the rhetoric from Chambers, Walsh, Marxist NGOs operating in the US, and the DSA all sounds similar.
Here’s the DSA calling for revolution and the destruction of America from within:
Frank, Aaron, Hank and Sam are Communist insurgents, radicalized marxist revolutionaries hiding behind personal ideologies to justfy their 1A expressions of the right to promote the insurrection of the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America pic.twitter.com/XLzzjisOqd
— AnimalFarm1945 (Moshe) (@Farm1945A) July 6, 2026
Days ago, Mark Penn, the former chief White House pollster and strategic advisor to President Bill Clinton for six years, warned in a Wall Street op-ed titled“The Socialist Threat Is Real” that “Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests.”
Perhaps Rubio’s upcoming meeting with leaders from 60 nations on Thursday can begin piecing together the puzzle of who is funding the activist groups seeking a communist revolution to destroy America from within.
Big Brother is a character in George Orwell’s novel 1984, the entity that governs Oceania, through the tyrannical single party – the Ingsoc. No one knows about it, but it is omnipresent through telescreens with strong propaganda and controlling everything.
An article written by Steve Watson in Modernity.news, gives an account of how the surveillance state has found its new frontier: the dashboard of your car. What was once a symbol of American freedom and independence, automobiles are rapidly transforming into a high-tech cage that watches their every move and can override their decisions at will.
In a post shared on X, users detailed the multiple complaints about Subaru’s improved “EyeSight” AI system, which is present in the latest models. According to drivers, the system gets quick glimpses beyond their intentions to plan their route. At the same time, Biden-era federal mandates were put in place to make this level of surveillance mandatory on every new vehicle by 2027.
They even catch a momentary glance to change a song or admire the landscape and activate constant alerts. Thus, its new Emergency Stop Assist with Safe Lane Selection function can detect an “unresponsive” driver and issue increasing alerts through sounds and vibrations at the steering wheel, and then take full control: automatically brake, reduce the vehicle’s speed, direct it to the side of the road, and activate hazard lights.
This is not an optional trick but would be imposed by the state. It’s being rolled out as standard “safety” technology, but drivers call it a domineering electronic babysitter who treats competent adults like children. It serves as a chilling preview of where the entire auto industry is headed under government pressure.
This type of intrusive surveillance is precisely the tool that a police state would dream of to exert total control over personal movements. If authorities achieve deeper integration with these systems, they could effectively decide when, where, and who can drive.
The launch of Subaru is just the latest sticking point in a broader push toward vehicle surveillance that goes far beyond basic security. A federal mandate – included in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 – requires all new passenger vehicles sold in the US to include advanced drunk or drug-impaired driving prevention technology, starting with 2027 model years.
As detailed in the New York Post report, this means infrared cameras and sensors that constantly monitor eyes, faces, head position, and behavior for distractions, drowsiness, or deterioration, with the power to prevent the car from starting or limit its operation. It seems very appropriate, but it implies a great deal of arbitrariness if it comes into the hands of bureaucrats.
Manufacturers are already patenting and deploying even more aggressive systems, including biometric scans that analyze everything from gait to heart rate to AI face scanning, lip reading, and emotional monitoring. The problem is that the data won’t stay in the car: it could make its way to insurers for risk scoring, law enforcement, or worse, to the knowledge of Big Brother: as cross-checks of drivers with police databases, before the vehicle is even allowed to move.
Authorities are already showing interest in using these tools as a weapon for broader travel restrictions. In Massachusetts, Democrats introduced a bill aimed at reducing vehicle miles traveled statewide to meet climate goals, pushing policies that critics say amount to limiting the distance people can drive in their own cars, clearly limiting their freedom.
Globalist agendas – usually driven by left-wing statists – on climate, excessive big-government intervention, and forced cooperation between business and state converge to strip away the last vestiges of personal autonomy on the roads. What starts as “safety features” and “environmental goals” ends with the car deciding personal freedom, to the point of deciding who can leave the garage.
It is not only the statists of the left who try to monitor in order to control, but also those of the right. For example, the president of Argentina has had meetings with Peter Thiel, surrounded by controversy over the publication of a manifesto by his surveillance company Palantir that summarizes the central ideas of the book The Technological Republic.
Beyond spying on all citizens, it urges the recovery of compulsory military service – a true modern slavery – and the development of weapons with artificial intelligence for states, with technologies for critical military and national security applications for the new era of deterrence built on AI (that) is about to begin.
“The only real answer is rejection: refuse to buy these guarded vehicles… and preserve the used car market as the last refuge of true driving freedom,” concludes Steve Watson.
In short, whatever the outcome, you can be sure that, in the end, freedom and private enterprise will always prevail. Despite the fame they have, the truth is that even intelligence agencies such as the CIA, the Mossad, or the Chinese MSS are inefficient to the point of causing hilarity.
On the other hand, private initiatives are impossible to stop by governments that have been trying, even with the help of “private” sectors – the friends of power – such as banking and financial oligopolies protected by the states.
U.S. authorities have seized about 2,040 pounds of cocaine and almost 5,800 pounds of marijuana in three separate maritime interdictions carried out with international partners.
The most recent interdiction involved the Joint Interagency Task Force (JIATF) South and Panama’s National Aeronaval Service intercepting a go-fast vessel following a rapid aerial and surface pursuit, JIATF South said in a July 10 post on X. The operation led to the seizure of roughly 2,010 pounds of cocaine.
JIATF South, based in Key West, Florida, is an international alliance that monitors and facilitates the interdiction of drug traffickers in maritime and air domains. Operating across a 42-million-square-mile area, JIATF South involves cooperation from 13 domestic and 20 international partners. The task force seeks to disrupt the flow of illegal drugs and dismantle transnational criminal organizations.
In a second interdiction, JIATF South and authorities from Costa Rica cooperated to intercept a drug smuggling vessel and capture a pick-up boat that was fleeing, according to a July 9 X post. The operation led to the seizure of 3,672 pounds of marijuana, with four suspects arrested.
The third interdiction was a joint operation between JIATF South, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and Dominican Republic partners that intercepted a vessel in the Caribbean Sea attempting to transport illicit cargo, the task force said in a July 8 X post.
Authorities seized 2,124 pounds of marijuana and about 30 pounds of cocaine, and detained two smugglers in this incident. A smuggling route operated by a major transnational criminal organization was disrupted.
Drug seizures have risen under the Trump administration.
In a June 18 statement, the CBP said it had seized 56 percent more drugs in the current fiscal year through May than during the same period in fiscal year 2024 under the previous administration.
In the four months between February and May, marijuana seizures averaged 37,033 pounds per month, which is 61 percent higher than the same period in the 2024 fiscal year.
For the month of May, the nationwide seizure of cocaine, marijuana, fentanyl, heroin, and methamphetamine was 32 percent higher than in May 2024.
“CBP remains on the frontline against drug smuggling, seizing dangerous narcotics before they reach American communities,” the agency said.
Northern Border Drug Trafficking
Last week, a Canadian national was sentenced to 240 months in prison for leading a criminal organization that trafficked hundreds of kilograms of cocaine and methamphetamine valued at up to $17 million from the United States into Canada, according to a July 9 statement from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).
The issue of drug trafficking at America’s northern border was highlighted by Michael J. Krol, Homeland Security Investigations’ assistant director for domestic operations, during a June 30 House committee hearing.
“Unique to the northern border, the flow of illicit drugs reflects both inbound and outbound dynamics,” Krol said.
A key concern “is the drug flow moving through the United States into Canada. Cartel-owned cocaine and other controlled substances are routed north for domestic consumption and onward shipment to Europe,” he added.
During fiscal year 2024-25, the Canada Border Services Agency reported seizing roughly 7,700 pounds of cocaine, compared to 2,700 pounds seized during fiscal year 2020-21, Krol said.
During a May 12 Senate committee hearing, DEA head Terry Cole and FBI Director Kash Patel said they were working to disrupt new drug production facilities in Canada.
“We see more precursors coming into the Port of Vancouver, coming into Canada,” Cole said.
Patel said that drug traffickers have gotten “smart” with improved security at the U.S. southern border, shifting operations to Canada.
The FBI was working with Canadian authorities to disrupt the production facilities that criminals have moved north, according to Patel.
China Builds Full-Scale Model Of US Destroyer In Remote Desert
Security analysts poring over satellite photos of China have shared a surreal image: There’s a detailed, full-scale replica of a US Navy destroyer in the middle of a remote stretch of Chinese desert. It’s a vivid indication of the seriousness with which the Chinese government takes preparations for a potential war with the United States, perhaps over Taiwan.
Thousands of miles from the nearest ocean, the mockup sits amid the sands of a missile-testing range near Ruoqiang in Xinjiang Province. It’s an exceedingly precise replica of a 510-foot-long US Arleigh Burke-classdestroyer. That type of vessel is a core workhorse of the US Navy, and is involved in air defense, anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare and attacks on land-targets. A main player in Trump’s Israel-allied war on Iran, it was likely an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer that fired the Tomahawk missiles on Feb 28 that devastated a girls’ elementary school in Minab, killing 168 people, mostly schoolgirls. Here’s video of an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, the USS Michael Murphy, in action:
Footage of the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) launching five Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran tonight. pic.twitter.com/nlsAMNhFMF
Adding to the mockup’s realism, analysts told CNN that that it’s bristling with antennas that are used to reproduce the destroyer’s radar signature. The same area of China is home to several flat, 2-D mockup of other US ships, portraying the outlines of destroyers and aircraft carriers as seen from above. Those mockups are mounted on tracks so they glide along the desert sea at the same speeds real US warships would use.
As with any well-resourced military, mockups have long been a part of Chinese readiness training, to include building fake airstrips, highway interchanges and even an Eiffel Tower in their desert. The country has also built a 3D mockup of central Taipei, to include Taiwan’s presidential office. However, according to open source intelligence analyst Joseph Wen of the Taiwan Inspiration Association, this is the first known instance in which China has built a detailed, 3-D replica of a warship. Wen is credited with being the first to discover the new mockup several weeks ago, while it was still being built. “The message that they are sending is China is always preparing for war,” Wen told CNN.
…just like the United States, which may see its already-enormous military budget grow 50% from about $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in FY 2027 — if Congress makes Trump’s fever-dreams a reality.
War Returns: Pentagon Initiates 3rd Consecutive Night Of Iran Strikes As IRGC Targets More Vessels In Hormuz
Summary
Trump warns will hit Iran ‘hard’ tonight or tomorrow; Pentagon confirms 3rd night of strikes has begun
Reports of Houthi missiles launched on Saudi Arabia: oil extends gains near month-highs.
Trump says US blockade of Iran ports ‘reinstated’: states that US to be reimbursed at rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit. CENTCOM affirms with closure message.
Strikes escalated over weekend: US hit over 140 Iranian military targets; Iran attacks US-linked facilities across the Gulf.
Shipping tensions boil: Iran claims the strait is closed, but commercial vessels continue transiting under US protection.
Oil prices climb: on rising risk to global shipping & energy markets, as diplomacy clearly unraveling.
In case anyone had doubts that the region has witnessed a return to full-scale US-Iran war, CENTCOM has announced that it has begun launching the third consecutive night of strikes on Iran in the overnight hours (local):
This as President Trump has claimed Monday that the US had a “deal with [Iran] two days ago” but that Tehran wanted “to negotiate it further”. However when asked by a reporter whether he thinks a negotiated settlement is no longer possible Trump responded: “I never reached that conclusion.”
He explained his beleif that the “most effective” way to put pressure on Iran is va a combination of a blockade and “hitting them”. Earlier he and the Pentagon announced that a full blockade of Iranian ports is back on.
The US is going to hit Iran hard on Monday night and Tuesday, Trump has previewed in remarks to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
When asked about the MoU, Trump said it was a “test” for Iran, which “they did not honor”. The remarks came just as reports emerged of more IRGC attacks on vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
OIL PRICES EXTEND GAINS IN POST SETTLEMENT TRADE, RISES 10%
There’s a rich irony in terms of the day this will be implemented, an anniversary of sorts:
The US has said it will reimpose its naval blockade of Iran on Tuesday, on what would have been the 11th anniversary of the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The landmark nuclear was finalised in Vienna on July 14, 2015 after being agreed by Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.
The negative return to full war headlines have come one after another on Monday
IRAN’S TASNIM SAYS SEVERAL ‘VIOLATING’ VESSELS WERE TARGETED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN ‘HARD’ TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TRUMP: IRAN MOU WAS BUILT TO TEST
TRUMP NOTIFIES CONGRESS OF NEW WAR AGAINST IRAN: POLITICO
TRUMP ON IRAN: WE HAD A DEAL YESTERDAY, THEY BREAK DEALS
Iranian state media cites the army stating that it targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, while it also targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles
Oil Surges To Month-Highs on Yemen Missile Attack on Saudi Arabia
Reports are emerging out of Saudi Arabia of inbound ballistic missile attacks on its air bases and/or an international airport. With Houthi potential involvement unfolding, there are fears that this war is now rapidly expanding. Oil is reacting to what is both the complete unraveling of the MoU and new signs of the Houthis joining the war on Iran’s side:
US blockade encompasses entirety of Iranian coastline: RTRS
Saudi defenses dealing with Houthi missile attack: Alekhbariya
Tasnim reports of an attack on Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia
Yemeni war media identifies the coordinates of important airports and ports in Saudi Arabia that will likely be targeted by Houthi attacks, reports Tasnim
Explosions heard on Iran’s Larak Island in Hormuz Strait: Tasnim
Several violating ships were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Tasnim
At the Commander in Chief’s direction, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET.
CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.
The resumption of the U.S. blockade against Iran follows the initial implementation from April 13 to June 18. CENTCOM forces redirected more than 140 compliant vessels, disabled nine non-compliant ships, and allowed over 50 commercial vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass through the blockade during the two-month period.
All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.
Iran Foreign Minister response:
POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service.
Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER.
Trump: Blockade Reinstated, US To Be ‘Reimbursed’ on 20% of Cargo
A stunning new Trump statement via Truth Social, proposing that the United States will collect an astounding rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. He has declared the US military is “reinstating the Iranian blockade” due to the IRGC continuing to try and enforce Iran’s own protocol. This could of course amount to a US ‘fee’ of tens of millions of dollars for each vessel, significantly more than what Iran was seeking to impose. Iran’s retaliation continues? New reports of major incident in Saudi Arabia:
Oil extends gains, rise 7% to session highs:
Oil jumps this morning on the bellow succession of headlines…
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SPOKESPERSON: WE CONTINUE TO ASSERT OUR AUTHORITY AND CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP: REINSTATING THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE
TRUMP: US WILL BE REIMBURSED 20% ON CARGO FROM HORMUZ
Trump: US to Take Over Strait & Get Paid For It
President Trump in surprising commentary issued to “Fox & Friends” has said the United States will probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and should be reimbursed for controlling it. His words have raised eyebrows given Washington’s stance has been that no one can collect tolls for transit through the vital international waterway. He said once the US gains control of it, following a weekend bombing campaign on Iranian coastal sites, “we’ll probably run it” and “we should be reimbursed for that.”
“We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that,” he says in the Fox phone interview.
Again, US officials have throughout Operation Epic Fury voiced that it is an illegal outrage for Iran to suggest it would charge fees, but now…
Trump: “We’re gonna keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. We should be reimbursed for that. When we do that, we’re gonna be reimbursed. We’re gonna get paid.” pic.twitter.com/O4ckjB2FkK
Below is a fuller transcript of the Monday morning exchange:
Fox: It looks like they’re back to trying to take control of the Strait, what’s your response?
Trump: Well, we’re taking over the straight. They have nothing, they’ve got nothing. So…. something that nobody knows, yesterday they had an eleven hour meeting, everything’s eleven hours with these guys you know you can’t settle a one sentence in, one hour, in one minute… It should be one minute—But we had a deal, but nobody knows, we had a deal, it was a done deal, but then they broke it, they always break it. And so we’re just going to hit them very hard. And we’re gonna keep the uh Strait, and we’ll probably run it, we’ll become the guardian of the Strait, maybe we’ll call it “The guardian angel of the Strait”. And we should reimbursed for that, when we do that we’re gonna be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy, they’re on our side. We guarded the Strait for 50 years, more, and, we never got paid for it. They made all the money and the US was just, you know, not, it’s just amazing. We guarded it for nothing.
The Iranians have been quick to respond, with its top military command asserting that Iran will not allow the US to intervene in the management of the strait. State-run IRNA also states:
Iran says we will not be forced to pay the ‘enemy’ for ship passage.
So this sets up the warring sides for further clashes in the Persian Gulf region, as absolutist demands continued to be adhered to, and red lines continue to be tested and blown past. Below is more from the Iranian Foreign Ministry articulating enforcement of its passage protocol:
Iran’s FM Spox. Esmail Baghaei:
The United States bears direct responsibility for the recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Americans reneged from day one; they are trying to bypass the secure route coordinated with Iran. pic.twitter.com/zlkvM6EkUS
The US and Iran exchanged another round of strikes overnight, extending a weeklong surge in fighting and casting dark clouds of uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping.
US Central Command revealed US forces unleashed air-delivered munitions on dozens of Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar systems, missile launch sites, and drone capabilities, bringing the weekend total to about 140 targets. This move aimed to degrade the IRGC’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Hormuz chokepoint, which it has done over the past week.
Iran responded with attacks on US-linked facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman, while also claiming it intercepted two vessels using what it called an “illegal route” through Hormuz.
IRGC Fires Warning Shots
Early Monday, Iranian state TV reported that IRGC forces fired “warning shots” at multiple ships attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint.
“This morning, two ships that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz illegally were targeted and stopped by warning shots fired by the navy of the Revolutionary Guards,” said a correspondent on state TV.
Tehran has declared the strait closed until further notice, but the US military, President Trump, and maritime monitors say the southern route remains passable.
Bloomberg data shows the LNG tanker Al Hamra safely transited the Hormuz chokepoint over the weekend and is now full steam ahead in the Gulf of Oman. Axios noted earlier that 20 commercial ships managed to transit the Hormuz chokepoint in coordination with the US military.
Bloomberg data only tracks ships with transponders on.
Crude Climbs as War Back on Menu
Brent crude futures traded up 3.5% to the midpoint of $78 a barrel, while WTI futures are up around 3.4% to $73.85 amid increasingly heated tit-for-tat attacks.
Here is Deutsche Bank equity research analyst Chris Robertson’s summary of developments last week and through the weekend:
Last week, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice. Iran attacked a commercial container ship attempting to transit the region, causing a fire aboard the vessel.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JIMC) said on Sunday that the southern Omani route remains available, but that the threat level is rated as “severe”.
Regardless of any claims around the Strait being closed or open, what matters is that commercial ship owners are likely not willing to risk transit in an active war zone, putting ships and crews at risk of attack.
We reiterate our initial concerns that despite major destruction of traditional Iranian naval vessels and assets, the ongoing threat that shipowners face is asymmetric warfare technologies such as drones and missiles. These types of threats are much harder to predict or plan for, thereby maximizing uncertainty related to mitigating voyage risks.
We expect transit activity will slow, especially as it relates to vessels planning to enter the Gulf through the Strait which, unlike exiting activity, is the real sign that conditions are normalizing. We believe that an ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to downward pressure on shortterm tanker rates as ships remain in other regions, thereby increasing effective supply of those ships.
Diplomacy Unravels
As of Monday morning, it is clear that US-Iran diplomacy is unraveling, while US forces are systematically degrading the IRGC’s ability to close the maritime chokepoint. Commercial ships continue to transit the waterway, undermining Tehran’s claim that the critical waterway is effectively shut.
Tehran must also recognize the longer-term strategic risk: every disruption accelerates global investment in pipelines, export terminals, and other infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz. Once those alternatives are operational (Read Here), Tehran’s greatest source of geopolitical leverage will evaporate. Then what?
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Overnight/Weekend Developments
US President Trump threatened that the US military would “completely decimate and destroy all areas” of Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out an assassination on him.
US forces said they struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and were also reported to have carried out another round of strikes on Sunday, while Iran targeted at least five US allies across the Middle East in drone and missile assaults early on Sunday, as well as announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. However, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said the path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, while it was separately reported that a Chinese tanker transited through Hormuz via an Iran-designated route.
US official said around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination, according to Axios.
US military announced on Sunday evening that it began a new wave of strikes against Iran to continue degrading its ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
US Central Command denied a claim by Iran that three US service members were killed in Kuwait, while it stated that there have been no reports of US casualties in the region, with all personnel accounted for and safe. CENTCOM later commented that it completed a new wave of offensive strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait’s military said three border posts were attacked and that a drilling platform owned by the Kuwait Oil Company was struck in a drone attack, while it was separately reported that US intelligence sources noted observations that Iran was preparing to carry out a massive attack on the UAE and Kuwait.
Iran said it caused heavy damage to Jordan’s Prince Hassan Airbase, as well as claimed it targeted the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar and a US Navy logistics base in Dukm, Oman. Furthermore, Iran also targeted Kuwait and the US base in Bahrain.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement, vowing to avenge the death of his father and said that it was the demand of the nation.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which it said were a violation of the ceasefire deal and the UN Charter, while it warned Gulf states over the use of territory for US attacks.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said no action against Iran should go unanswered and called for a pre-set response to any attempt against Iran, its military, Supreme Leader and officials.
Iranian lawmaker and member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Kashkavi, said Iran prefers to manage the Strait of Hormuz through cooperation with regional states, particularly Oman, and stated that the clear official position is that future management of the Strait will be arranged by Iran.
Iran denied social media reports that claimed the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, while its nuclear agency said all units continue to operate normally and that the plant is in a safe and stable condition.
Iraq’s PM is to visit Washington on Monday, while oil and gas deals are expected to be announced, although the Islamic Resistance in Iraq warned the government against US economic deals and demanded a US troop withdrawal.
Yemen’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Yemen would continue its support of Iran in the face of ongoing US and Israeli aggression.
Israeli artillery conducted further shelling in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Explosions were heard around Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island on Monday afternoon, Mehr News reported, while there is also the possibility of clashes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Reported fire at Kharg Island appears to be a result of routine flaring, according to Nour News.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. He added that the MoU is in “crisis” phase. Muscat talks with Oman were solely focused on the Strait of Hormuz. On the recent strikes, none of the US bases in any country in the region have been removed from the target list and that the defensive strikes of Iran are solely against the bases, facilities and positions used by the US to attack Iran, including their logistical and support facilities. In terms of further talks, mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators.
Iran’s IRGC said only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is to end US military interventions and respect the sovereignty of the countries bordering it.
There is no clear timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the experimental areas in southern Lebanon amid a policy of consolidation and non-compliance with the framework agreement, Al Araby reported citing sources.
