Summary

• US signals to allies no ground invasion coming, with thousands of troops still en route: Iran denies requesting Donald Trump’s 10-day halt; Israel attacks steel & industrial sites. Also, Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor, part of the Arak Nuclear Complex, targeted. Yellow Cake factory in Yazd province hit.

• Escalation on all fronts: IRGC HQ targeted by US-Israsel; Iran signals expansion by naming UAE targets, hitting Kuwait ports and sending drones on Riyadh. Iran newly warning it will hit Gulf industry.

• Rubio tells G7 foreign ministers war will continue for another 2-4 weeks.

• Israel doubles down amid reports of manpower strain: IDF chief warns of manpower pressure even as Defense Minister Katz vows to “intensify and expand” strikes.

• Risk rises that Iran is holding back more advanced missiles for a prolonged war: WSJ writes “The US and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites… But Tehran’s missiles keep flying.”

*  *  *

US Signals Allies: ‘No Immediate Plans for Iran Invasion’ As Tehran Says Bigger Retaliation Coming

Yesterday in Politico: I have no idea what they are trying to do’: Allies say Trump sends mixed signals on Iran. And today in Bloomberg, the latest: US Signals to Allies No Immediate Plans for Iran Invasion.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Fridayopenly questioned whether Washington and Tel Aviv even have a workable plan, warning that President Trump is instead driving toward “massive escalation.”

“I have great doubt about whether there is a strategy, and whether the strategy can be executed,” Merz said, underscoring growing unease among allies. The German leader revealed a tense half-hour call with Trump earlier this week, saying he told the US president bluntly that if he expects allied backing, “then ask us please beforehand” instead of going straight to the media. The conversation, Merz admitted, was “not without controversy.”

Merz said Trump repeatedly brushed off alliance coordination altogether, telling him, “I don’t need NATO.” Meanwhile a new warning from Iran’s Foreign Minister:

Israel has hit 2 of Iran’s largest steel factories, a power plant and civilian nuclear sites among other infrastructure. Israel claims it acted in coordination with the U.S.

Attack contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy.

Iran will exact HEAVY price for Israeli crimes

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 27, 2026

And via Newsquawk: Senior Iranian Official says US attacks on Iran while simultaneously calling for talks is intolerable.

More Iran Nuclear Sites Targeted; UAE Presses for Hormuz Security Force

The United Arab Emirates, which has been among the hardest-impacted Gulf states in Iran’s ongoing retaliation, is pressing for a multinational maritime ​taskforce to reopen vital oil transit waterway, the Financial Times reports ‌Friday.

The UAE, with a navy that’s not really going to strike fear into any enemy (much less the Iranians), says it is willing to participate in a “Hormuz Security Force” to defend the strait and escort shipping. Dozens of countries are being asked to join, sources cited in FT say. So far there have been no takers. Meanwhile, more alarming escalation with fresh US-Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, as Tehran threatens to launch revenge attacks in kind (on Gulf and Israel):

• IRAN SIGNALS POSSIBLE ATTACKS ON STEEL FACTORIES IN GULF AND ISRAEL, ACCORDING TO TASNIM.
• Aardakan yellow cake factory (nuclear) in Yazd province attacked by US and Israeli Friday evening (local)
• No radiation leak detected, local authorities say

Tasnim says that Iran’s response will “not be limited to the region’s steel industries” and that a “broader more severe response” is on the agenda. And… 

Israeli/American airstrikes hit the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor located on the territory of the Arak Nuclear Complex in western Iran on Friday. pic.twitter.com/qP7ytrCfVb

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 27, 2026

The IDF announces the following [machine translation]:

After identifying rehabilitation attempts: The Air Force struck the heavy water plant in Arak – a key infrastructure for producing plutonium for nuclear weapons With precise guidance from Military Intelligence, the Air Force struck a short while ago the heavy water plant in Arak, located in central Iran. Heavy water is a unique material used to operate nuclear reactors such as the currently inactive reactor in Arak, which was originally designed to have the capability to produce weapons-grade plutonium. These materials are also used as a source for extracting neutrons for nuclear weapons.

Vital Iranian Steel Plants, Industry Attacked

Israeli media citing military officials on Friday: “The IDF attacked Iran’s two largest steel plants, in Isfahan and Ahvaz. Both plants are vital to Iran’s military industry and are partially owned by the Revolutionary Guards. The strikes on the plants are expected to cause billions in damage to the Iranian economy.”

This could mark a new, expanded phase of the war as Israel goes after key defense industrial targets, which also serve central civilian infrastructure development. The US has still held off on pursuing more attacks on energy sites, but it seems Israel is maintaining a more gloves off approach – opting for total societal destruction, and going after industry. This seems to also be part of efforts to ensure ballistic missile production is degraded. 

Reuters: US is certain about having destroyed third of Iran’s missiles, say sources. Another third is believed to be damaged, destroyed or buried.

Also, Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor, part of the Arak Nuclear Complex, targeted.

Reports from Iran suggest that all three of Iran’s largest steel production plants were struck in a coordinated targeted strikes.

This could substantially affect the national steel industry and manufacturing pic.twitter.com/mmrnyDS8UX

— Ben Tzion Macales (@BenTzionMacales) March 27, 2026

“One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed,” Reuters writes, noting that all of this contradicts White House claims of Iran having “very few rockets left”.

Iran Didn’t Request Trump’s 10-Day Pause: WSJ

Iran has not requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants, peace talk mediators have been cited in WSJ as saying, and has still not issued formal response to the 15-point US plan delivered via Pakistan. This as the Pentagon is moving thousands of Marines and Army Airborne soldiers into the region.

The Wall Street Journal points out that “The U.S. and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some over and over across almost a month of war. But Tehran’s missiles keep flying.”

One pundit questions, are we ‘winning’ yet?… writing the following brief assessment of where things stand: IRGC Joint Staff headquarters under US-Israeli strikes. Iran naming UAE targets as Abu Dhabi enters the war. IDF Chief of Staff warning publicly the Israeli military could “collapse” from manpower shortages. Iran claiming over one million fighters mobilised with IRGC lowering the age for support roles to 12. Pentagon considering 10,000 additional ground troops within striking distance of Kharg. Trump pausing energy-plant destruction for 10 days until April 6. Iran denying it requested the pause. Houthis warning they will enter the war. Lavrov saying the quiet part: “Iran did not violate any of its international obligations.” Russia’s oil revenue doubling to $24 billion this month.

Oil prices continued to spike this morning, with international Brent crude oil once again surpassing $110 per barrel. For the day so far that’s up another 3%. 

“After several glimmers of hope, fueled by comments from President Trump, which were quickly dashed, the market is becoming more demanding in terms of rhetoric,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “The TACO trade is more difficult to do because a return to square one is not possible from here.”

Gulf Flashpoint Widens: Iran Signals No Let Up

Multiple GCC countries issued incoming-attack alerts as drones and missiles light up the region Friday, with Kuwait taking at least two new hits: Shuwaikh Port was struck by “hostile drones” – per the Kuwait Ports Authority, with a second target, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port, reportedly hit by drones and cruise missiles. Infrastructure damage has been reported in both cases, but no reported casualties.

Saudi Arabia maintains its air defense footing, with the Ministry of Defense saying drones were intercepted and destroyed over Riyadh and the Eastern Province, following a warning for Al-Kharj – home to Prince Sultan Air Base. Six ballistic missiles were detected: two intercepted, with four splashing into the Persian Gulf and empty areas.

Absolute chaos in Tel Aviv…

Caos absoluto en Tel Aviv. La ciudad está en llamas. La sociedad israelí está viviendo su peor momento en décadas. Las nuevas oleadas de misiles de Irán son cada vez mas violentas y la situación se está volviendo insostenible. Se ha prohibido incluso la divulgación de todos los… pic.twitter.com/C5SDgtBigk

— Martín Dandach (@MartinDandach) March 26, 2026

New explosions have been reported in Dubai and Abu Dhabi on Friday. It’s as if Iran and the IRGC are sending a clear “f-you” message to Trump in the wake of the series of ultimatums and deadlines Tehran never asked for. Trump earlier went from 48 hours to 5 days to now a 10-day window amid the threats to attack power and energy infrastructure.

Israel Escalates Too: Will ‘Intensify & Expand’ Strikes on Iran

The White House has been busy talking about its backchannel diplomacy and getting the beginnings of a peace deal off the ground via Pakistan, and at one point within the past week there was talk of Vice President J.D. Vance actually traveling to Islamabad – but the situation on the ground suggests the opposite, given also Israel has on Friday announced escalation of its posture. Israel has continued coming under consistent missile strikes.

⚡️Nahariya, Israel pic.twitter.com/5rl2HtWuYT

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 26, 2026

Now, Defense Minister Israel Katz is vowing Israel’s attacks will “intensify and expand” – citing that Islamic Republic had not heeded warnings “to stop firing missiles at Israel’s civilian population.” Katz said: “The fire has continued – and therefore, IDF strikes in Iran will intensify and expand to additional targets and domains that assist the regime in developing and deploying weapons against Israeli civilians.”

There remains a huge risk for Israel amid the expectation that Iran has been saving its biggest and most advanced, longer range missiles – rationing its arsenal as it settles in for a long war.

Strait of Hormuz Status & Overnight News

Tehran could still be playing a double game of public rejection coupled with private behind-the-scenes signaling. According to Axios’ latest, Iranian officials are quietly showing interest in talks even as they reject Washington’s proposal, with mediators leaning hard to force  or ‘will into existence’ a meeting in the coming days. “Things are progressing very slowly” in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, and as of now, no meeting between senior officials is even on the calendar, per Isreal’s i24NEWS.

An Iranian girl swings on a beach in Bandar Abbas as smoke rises from a nearby naval base hit by strikes.pic.twitter.com/8B2Pdt2iql

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 27, 2026

The IRGC Navy is still declaring the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut: traffic “to and from” ports tied to enemy allies is banned outright, with warnings any movement will be “severely dealt with.” In a rare twist, The Wall Street Journal and others report Iran has even blocked two Chinese vessels from transiting Hormuz – signaling enforcement isn’t just for Western targets. Washington seems to be trying to adapt in real time, as Reuters reports the US has deployed uncrewed drone boats into the theater, opening yet another front in an already widening conflict.

*  *  * 25-Year Shelf Life

Golf pro Tiger Woods has reportedly been involved in a “rollover crash” on Jupiter Island, just north of Palm Beach County in Martin County, according to local media outlet WPTV.

The Martin County Sheriff’s Office said the accident occurred near 281 Beach Road on Jupiter Island in Hobe Sound. Property records from Zillow show the closest house to the accident is valued at $14.8 million.

The sheriff’s office has yet to say what happened or whether Tiger was injured.

If the report is correct, this would mark Tiger’s third car crash. Here are his prior two:

• November 2009 in Florida, when he hit a fire hydrant and a tree outside his home.

• February 2021 in Southern California, a serious single-car rollover that caused major leg injuries.

Sheriff John Budensiek will hold a press conference at around 1700 local time.

*Developing… 

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries.

China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according to Bloomberg data and analysis.

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded all Qatari and UAE supply of LNG. Additionally, Qatar’s LNG capacity has been severely damaged by Iranian missile attacks, which forced state firm QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on contracts and start quantifying the losses.

The Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City (RLIC) dashed hopes of quick resumption of Qatari LNG flows even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open to unimpeded and safe traffic today. QatarEnergy last week said the damage from Iranian missile strikes on the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, would cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair.

As a result, Asian LNG prices have nearly doubled this month and Asian buyers are outbidding Europe for spot supply.

China had some buffer to allow itself not to spend too much on costly LNG imports this month. The country’s LNG storage was estimated by Kpler at about 51% by end-March, and this buffer allows Northeast Asian buyers to draw on existing inventories.

The effect would shift peak restocking season in China, Japan, and South Korea to June–July rather than April–May, according to Kpler.

Summary:  

• Reuters says 50,000 TSA agents could be paid as early as Monday

• Trump officially puts out a presidential memorandum instructing DHS to pay TSA agents

• House Speaker Mike Johnson agreed to put a short-term DHS funding package on the floor

• The resolution would fund all of DHS, including ICE and CBP

• It would replace the Senate-passed bill on the House floor

• Chuck Schumer says it’s ‘DOA’

Trump Puts Out Order Instructing DHS to Pay TSA Agents

President Trump wrote in a presidential memorandum on Friday afternoon that the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, should use “funds that have a reasonable and logical nexus to TSA operations” to pay TSA agents until regular funding is restored.

“If Democrats in Congress will not act to honor the service of our TSA officers, who are now performing their critical public safety responsibilities without knowing whether they will be able to buy food for their families or pay their rent, then my Administration will take action,” President Trump wrote in the memo.

Trump said, “As President of the United States, I have determined that these circumstances constitute an emergency situation compromising the Nation’s security.”

“Accordingly, I hereby direct the Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, to use funds that have a reasonable and logical nexus to TSA operations to provide TSA employees with the compensation and benefits that would have accrued to them if not for the Democrat-led DHS shutdown, consistent with applicable law, including 31 U.S.C. 1301(a),” he continued.

The president noted, “Once regular funding for TSA has been restored, every effort should be made, as authorized by law, to adjust applicable funding accounts within DHS to ensure the continuation of DHS operations and activities consistent with planned expenditures prior to the lapse.”

Reuters is reporting that 50,000 TSA agents could be paid as early as Monday. 

Fox News’ Bill Melugin reports:

BREAKING: President Trump tells colleague @JacquiHeinrich in a call that the Senate bill that passed in the overnight hours to fund all of DHS except CBP & ICE “wasn’t appropriate.”

“Well, it wasn’t good. It wasn’t appropriate,” Trump told Jacqui. “Now what they should do is they should terminate the filibuster, Jacqui, and just vote, but you have three or four Republicans in there that are not doing the right thing. You can’t have a bill that’s not going to fund – in my opinion, you can’t have a bill that’s not going to fund ICE. You can’t have a bill that’s not going to fund any form of law enforcement, of which ICE is a big form, and so is Border Patrol.”

BREAKING: President Trump tells colleague @JacquiHeinrich in a call that the Senate bill that passed in the overnight hours to fund all of DHS except CBP & ICE “wasn’t appropriate.”

“Well, it wasn’t good. It wasn’t appropriate,” Trump told Jacqui. “Now what they should do is…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) March 27, 2026

Also this. 

The House Republican leadership seems to be aiming for an evening vote tonight or a vote tomorrow morning on the 60-day CR.

Rules is at 3:30.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) March 27, 2026

Johnson To Advance New 60-Day DHS Funding Package But Schumer Says DOA

After meeting with the Freedom Caucus, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has agreed to advance a 60-day continuing resolution (CR) to the House Floor, which would fund all of DHS – including ICE and CBP – in lieu of the narrower Senate-passed bill. This decision will extend the partial shutdown of DHS, which has already lasted more than five weeks, and force the Senate to return and vote on the revised House measure.

The shift reflects intense pressure from hardline conservatives who threatened to sink the Senate bill without major changes. The Freedom Caucus is demanding the inclusion of voter ID requirements, additional border patrol funding, and resources for child sex trafficking investigations within ICE. While Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris argued the delay would not affect airport operations and that the Senate could quickly approve the bill next week, Democrats have repeatedly opposed short-term clean extensions – and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has already declared the 60-day CR “dead on arrival” in the Senate, stating Democrats will not give what he called a “blank check to Trump’s lawless and deadly immigration militia without reforms.”

A 60 day CR that locks in the status quo is dead on arrival in the Senate, and Republicans know it.

We’ve been clear from day one: Democrats will fund critical Homeland Security functions—but we will not give a blank check to Trump’s lawless and deadly immigration militia… pic.twitter.com/WBivMRihcw

— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) March 27, 2026

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, meanwhile, has indicated Republicans plan to address ICE and CBP funding later through budget reconciliation using only GOP votes. However, the core disagreements over these agencies have stalled negotiations for five weeks, and the House’s latest approach is unlikely to break the logjam. House GOP leaders are holding a conference call this afternoon to discuss the path forward, though it remains unclear whether they will attempt to pass the short-term funding bill today

*  *  * Nighty night

*  *  *

Overnight: Senate Unanimously Passed Spending Bill To Fund DHS 

At 2:22 a.m. EST, the Senate unanimously passed a spending bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security after a 40-day shutdown that disrupted airport security and sparked travel chaos for millions of Americans.

The bill, which excludes funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, still needs House approval and President Trump’s signature. The overnight breakthrough came as airport TSA lines worsened nationwide this week, with TSA agents calling out sick or quitting due to missed paychecks.

BREAKING.

The Senate just passed funding for most of DHS for the rest of the fiscal year.

The bill funds all but ICE and *Border Patrol*

This was by unanimous voice vote. It now goes to the House, which is still in town and can vote later today.

The bill contains no…

— Lisa Desjardins (@LisaDNews) March 27, 2026

Unpaid TSA agents have been calling out by the hundreds at major airports so far, including Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, and New York, sparking long checkpoint lines. The funding lapse has led to 480 TSA workers resigning.

The breakthrough also came after President Trump added pressure on Thursday (read here), saying he would sign an order to fund TSA officers’ paychecks. 

“I am going to sign an Order instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin, to immediately pay our TSA Agents in order to address this Emergency Situation, and to quickly stop the Democrat Chaos at the Airports,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Thursday. 

President Trump pins blame on Democrats for DHS shutdown at cabinet meeting: “They need to end this shutdown immediately, or we’ll have to take some very drastic measures.” pic.twitter.com/Pt4pFK2wB0

— CSPAN (@cspan) March 26, 2026

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said, “Hopefully they’ll be around, and we can get at least a lot of the government opened up again, and then we’ll go from there.”

Thune blamed unhinged Democrats for the airport chaos: “President Trump should never have had to step in to rescue TSA workers and U.S. air travel. We are here because, thanks to Democrats’ determined refusal to reach an agreement, there will be no Homeland Security funding bill this year.” 

Democrats have widely objected to passing a DHS spending bill that includes funding for ICE and CBP. This is mostly because the president has used those federal agencies to deport illegal aliens, the very ones that Democrats let in through disastrous open borders to build a new voting bloc in their aspirations of a one-party rule nation, just like the insanity in California, Maryland, and other deeply blue states. 

Punchbowl News explained there were “no winners” in this six-week standoff.

“Who won the Senate standoff? No one, in truth. Nothing really changed. Both sides wanted to have this fight, so it happened. It was another example of how little moderation is left in the Trump era, where the first instinct is to go to war,” the outlet wrote in a morning note.

*  *  * Sale on Top Supplements

Brain Rescue

Mushroom 10x

Ultimate Omega 3

Global energy flows are being rewired across Eurasia as the Russia-Ukraine war and the latest U.S.-Iran conflict disrupt Gulf energy flows in what may be the worst energy shock on record.

One major new development is that roughly 20% of global LNG flows remain shut in the Gulf region because of the Hormuz chokepoint, with QatarEnergy warning last week that 17% of its LNG export capacity could be offline for three to five years.

That brings us to Goldman commodities expert Samantha Dart’s warning to clients about five months ago, in which she said the “largest-ever LNG supply wave” was set to hit, pushing prices lower.

The question now is whether Dart’s warning still holds, given that the Iranian attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility wiped out about 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia. Repairs are expected to take three to five years.

Dart’s pre-US-Iran war view was that natural gas prices would remain relatively stable through 2027 before peak glut materializes by the end of the decade, triggering U.S. LNG export cancellations. However, the Ras Laffan disruption may have derailed that oversupplied outlook, as LNG markets could remain tight for years.

Another key development, with Qatari LNG flows hampered, is a recent note from Criterion Research President James Bevan, who wrote: “What had been framed as a two-horse race for global LNG market share now looks considerably more one-sided. The beneficiary is clear: U.S. Gulf Coast LNG.”

And just like that, with Qatari LNG flows hampered for years, the question now is whether Dart’s bearish forecast of the “largest-ever LNG supply wave” will likely have to be revisited. We’ll see what she says in the next update.

Gold or Bitcoin: which can anchor the next reserve system? 

Last night, in a ZH debate hosted by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Peter Schiff argued for gold’s role as the future global reserve currency, while Mark Moss made the case for Bitcoin, arguing that it is gaining traction on sovereign balance sheets as of 2025.

They covered America’s dwindling reserve status, fundamental monetary properties, and the nature of governments. Here were some highlights for those short on time:

Gold: Tried and True

Schiff argued that Bitcoin does not meet the definition of money and therefore cannot compete with gold, which he described as the foundational reserve asset backing currencies.

He also pointed to current market trends, arguing that “foreign central banks are already moving more of their US dollar reserves into gold because they are losing confidence,” particularly in the U.S. government’s ability to repay debt without massive debasement. While acknowledging recent volatility, he maintained that gold’s decline is temporary and that “real rates are going to collapse, and that’s bullish for gold.”

At a more fundamental level, money must have independent utility, according to Schiff. 

“It has to be a commodity… [with] its own use,” pointing to gold’s role in “industry… jewelry… aerospace… medicine… electronics” as what makes it “better money than other commodities,” and distinct from Bitcoin, which may be transferable but is solely a digital ledger. 

pic.twitter.com/vqdszTUvVQ

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026

The Issue of Trust

Moss emphasized the importance of custody, arguing that gold ultimately depends on intermediaries (unless stored in one’s basement) even when ownership is legally binding. Governments are not trustworthy and if they or the institution holding possession of the physical gold decide to renege, well ultimately, “they have control over the asset.”

Shipping gold abroad is another matter, filled with counterparty risk and logistical burden. Money needs to be transferable and this is hindered “if [governments] won’t allow you to ship it… or receive it.”

At a more basic level, he argued the issue is unavoidable with physical assets: “you have to trust somebody… [and] trust that they’ll allow you to access it,” concluding that “as long as I don’t have possession of it, I have no control over it.”

pic.twitter.com/3oZ37kIuYu

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026

Will Central Banks accumulate Bitcoin?

Moss opened by framing Bitcoin within a broader shift in the global monetary system, arguing that reserve assets are moving away from a single dominant anchor toward a mix of holdings. As he put it, “the world is breaking apart… instead of having one… reserve asset, I believe we’ll start to have different assets held in reserve,” with countries diversifying across currencies, commodities, and other stores of value. Within that transition, he argued Bitcoin is already entering the conversation at the sovereign level, projecting that “Bitcoin will have a meaningful allocation in central bank reserves… in the next 20 years.”

Moss argued that if politicians are responding to Bitcoin holders, it suggests scale: “the adoption of Bitcoin is so massive… politicians are forced to bow down to the most powerful voting bloc.”

But is this classic pandering by the political class?

Schiff said “the Bitcoin community has done a very good job of bribing politicians,” framing recent proposals as the result of lobbying and campaign influence rather than monetary necessity. In his view, politicians are responding to a narrow but motivated group of voters, where “when a politician promises to buy Bitcoin… you’re like, yeah, I’m voting for that guy,” effectively bribing voters by promising to use tax dollars to bid up the price of Bitcoin.

The trend, however, may not last. “if the price of Bitcoin collapses, all the political firepower is going to go away.”

pic.twitter.com/4hvUQsKIPk

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026
 

Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.

Summary

• No pause from Tehran, war footing deepens: Iran denies requesting Donald Trump’s 10-day halt; Israel attacks steel & industrial sites.

• Escalation on all fronts: IRGC HQ targeted by US-Israsel; Iran signals expansion by naming UAE targets, hitting Kuwait ports and sending drones on Riyadh

• Israel doubles down amid reports of manpower strain: IDF chief warns of manpower pressure even as Defense Minister Katz vows to “intensify and expand” strikes.

• Risk rises that Iran is holding back more advanced missiles for a prolonged war: WSJ writes “The US and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites… But Tehran’s missiles keep flying.”

*  *  *

Vital Iranian Steel Plants, Industry Attacked

Israeli media citing military officials on Friday: “The IDF attacked Iran’s two largest steel plants, in Isfahan and Ahvaz. Both plants are vital to Iran’s military industry and are partially owned by the Revolutionary Guards. The strikes on the plants are expected to cause billions in damage to the Iranian economy.”

This could mark a new, expanded phase of the war as Israel goes after key defense industrial targets, which also serve central civilian infrastructure development. The US has still held off on pursuing more attacks on energy sites, but it seems Israel is maintaining a more gloves off approach – opting for total societal destruction, and going after industry. This seems to also be part of efforts to ensure ballistic missile production is degraded. 

Reuters: US is certain about having destroyed third of Iran’s missiles, say sources. Another third is believed to be damaged, destroyed or buried.

“One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed,” Reuters writes, noting that all of this contradicts White House claims of Iran having “very few rockets left”.

Iran Didn’t Request Trump’s 10-Day Pause: WSJ

Iran has not requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants, peace talk mediators have been cited in WSJ as saying, and has still not issued formal response to the 15-point US plan delivered via Pakistan. This as the Pentagon is moving thousands of Marines and Army Airborne soldiers into the region.

The Wall Street Journal points out that “The U.S. and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some over and over across almost a month of war. But Tehran’s missiles keep flying.”

One pundit questions, are we ‘winning’ yet?… writing the following brief assessment of where things stand: IRGC Joint Staff headquarters under US-Israeli strikes. Iran naming UAE targets as Abu Dhabi enters the war. IDF Chief of Staff warning publicly the Israeli military could “collapse” from manpower shortages. Iran claiming over one million fighters mobilised with IRGC lowering the age for support roles to 12. Pentagon considering 10,000 additional ground troops within striking distance of Kharg. Trump pausing energy-plant destruction for 10 days until April 6. Iran denying it requested the pause. Houthis warning they will enter the war. Lavrov saying the quiet part: “Iran did not violate any of its international obligations.” Russia’s oil revenue doubling to $24 billion this month.

Oil prices continued to spike this morning, with international Brent crude oil once again surpassing $110 per barrel. For the day so far that’s up another 3%. 

“After several glimmers of hope, fueled by comments from President Trump, which were quickly dashed, the market is becoming more demanding in terms of rhetoric,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “The TACO trade is more difficult to do because a return to square one is not possible from here.”

Gulf Flashpoint Widens: Iran Signals No Let Up

Multiple GCC countries issued incoming-attack alerts as drones and missiles light up the region Friday, with Kuwait taking at least two new hits: Shuwaikh Port was struck by “hostile drones” – per the Kuwait Ports Authority, with a second target, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port, reportedly hit by drones and cruise missiles. Infrastructure damage has been reported in both cases, but no reported casualties.

Saudi Arabia maintains its air defense footing, with the Ministry of Defense saying drones were intercepted and destroyed over Riyadh and the Eastern Province, following a warning for Al-Kharj – home to Prince Sultan Air Base. Six ballistic missiles were detected: two intercepted, with four splashing into the Persian Gulf and empty areas.

Absolute chaos in Tel Aviv…

Caos absoluto en Tel Aviv. La ciudad está en llamas. La sociedad israelí está viviendo su peor momento en décadas. Las nuevas oleadas de misiles de Irán son cada vez mas violentas y la situación se está volviendo insostenible. Se ha prohibido incluso la divulgación de todos los… pic.twitter.com/C5SDgtBigk

— Martín Dandach (@MartinDandach) March 26, 2026

New explosions have been reported in Dubai and Abu Dhabi on Friday. It’s as if Iran and the IRGC are sending a clear “f-you” message to Trump in the wake of the series of ultimatums and deadlines Tehran never asked for. Trump earlier went from 48 hours to 5 days to now a 10-day window amid the threats to attack power and energy infrastructure.

Israel Escalates Too: Will ‘Intensify & Expand’ Strikes on Iran

The White House has been busy talking about its backchannel diplomacy and getting the beginnings of a peace deal off the ground via Pakistan, and at one point within the past week there was talk of Vice President J.D. Vance actually traveling to Islamabad – but the situation on the ground suggests the opposite, given also Israel has on Friday announced escalation of its posture. Israel has continued coming under consistent missile strikes.

⚡️Nahariya, Israel pic.twitter.com/5rl2HtWuYT

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 26, 2026

Now, Defense Minister Israel Katz is vowing Israel’s attacks will “intensify and expand” – citing that Islamic Republic had not heeded warnings “to stop firing missiles at Israel’s civilian population.” Katz said: “The fire has continued – and therefore, IDF strikes in Iran will intensify and expand to additional targets and domains that assist the regime in developing and deploying weapons against Israeli civilians.”

There remains a huge risk for Israel amid the expectation that Iran has been saving its biggest and most advanced, longer range missiles – rationing its arsenal as it settles in for a long war.

Strait of Hormuz Status & Overnight News

Tehran could still be playing a double game of public rejection coupled with private behind-the-scenes signaling. According to Axios’ latest, Iranian officials are quietly showing interest in talks even as they reject Washington’s proposal, with mediators leaning hard to force  or ‘will into existence’ a meeting in the coming days. “Things are progressing very slowly” in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, and as of now, no meeting between senior officials is even on the calendar, per Isreal’s i24NEWS.

An Iranian girl swings on a beach in Bandar Abbas as smoke rises from a nearby naval base hit by strikes.pic.twitter.com/8B2Pdt2iql

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 27, 2026

The IRGC Navy is still declaring the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut: traffic “to and from” ports tied to enemy allies is banned outright, with warnings any movement will be “severely dealt with.” In a rare twist, The Wall Street Journal and others report Iran has even blocked two Chinese vessels from transiting Hormuz – signaling enforcement isn’t just for Western targets. Washington seems to be trying to adapt in real time, as Reuters reports the US has deployed uncrewed drone boats into the theater, opening yet another front in an already widening conflict.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Thursday was a rocky day in markets ahead of today’s deadline for the US to shift from bombing Iran’s nuclear, missile, drone, military-industrial, and regime sites to destroying its electricity grid, potentially taking out its power generation for a generation, and unleashing an Iranian response against the broader region’s power, water, and energy infrastructure.

Given that backdrop, some TACO the view it was logical Trump subsequently extended the deadline to 8PM EST on Monday 6 April, because “talks are ongoing, and despite erroneous statements to the contrary from the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well.” Is this true, is Trump pulling a head-fake ahead of an impending strike, or did he just ramp the markets looking for an off-ramp?

Supporting a ‘deal ahead’ view, Israel is shifting from hitting regime to military-industrial targets and is back to 24-hour attack runs despite the incredible strain it puts on its pilots and fighter jets. Yet there are other logics derived from logistics.

The official Iranian position is that the US proposal to end the war is “one-sided and unfair.” Indeed, Iran’s hardline new leaders are calling for a rapid move to gain a nuclear bomb, and it is already recruiting children as young as 12 to man checkpoints in Tehran, according to Al Arabiya, and is using civilian shields around regime targets. Iran also says Yemen’s Houthis may cut off Saudi Oil flowing from its Red Sea back-up pipeline and target the key trade route between Asia and Europe.

The Pentagon is reportedly choosing ‘final blow’ options if talks fail. There are strong suggestions that if the US steps up its attacks, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will move from defence to offence alongside it, which would change the regional dynamic – they, like Israel, are not able to ‘go home’ afterwards if they fail. This morning also sees news the US may send an additional 10,000 ground troops – and most of those forces could only arrive by next weekend, just ahead of the new Monday deadline. (Also note in 1991’s Gulf War 1, the US sent 650,000 troops at its peak, and in 2003’s Gulf War 2, around 450,000.)

However, that decline is part of the logic arguing why the US is acting – both to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat and to keep control of key commodity supply chains while it still can. Indeed, it’s reported US plans may include seizing key Iranian oil assets, either strategic islands in Hormuz or the oil hub of Kharg. Trump floated the US controlling Iranian oil yesterday, as it de facto does Venezuelan. If the US were to take the mouth of the Strait it could lock Iranian oil in, throttling the regime, while letting others’ out, albeit under some fire.

In short, we have an extension of the war until at least April 6 as the financial press say ‘24 days to disaster: Trump’s new deadline won’t change oil shock maths’. Oil already at sea pre-war will have been used up by then, revealing the true supply shock. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks have taken 40% of Russian oil export capacity out, there was a strike against a Turkish tanker carrying Russian oil yesterday, and a major cyclone just forced Australian LNG shutdowns. Vietnam and the Philippines are asking Japan to help them from its own oil reserves. Expect more such pleas.

We also have conflating geopolitical shocks that will echo after the war is over. Trump scorched NATO for failing an Iran ‘loyalty test’ and seems to be flirting with dumping the alliance again, despite Secretary General Rutte saying, “NATO is safer under Trump.” Europe still insists, “This isn’t our war.” Trump literally replied, “Ukraine isn’t ours.” Yet that’s as Russia admits it is helping Iran militarily, as Iran helped Russia fight until now…. and as the German Armed Forces Association called to prepare for a war economy.

Potential geoeconomic shocks are also clear beyond those from energy. Though the EU parliament approved the US trade deal yesterday, avoiding the US threat to use LNG exports as an economic weapon, there were caveats. The updated agreement allows for its suspension if: (1) the US undermines the deal’s objectives or discriminates against EU economic operators – which implies there cannot be higher tariffs for different sectors, which the US is going to insist on; (2) if the US threatens the territorial integrity of member states – which implies Greenland, which the US is likely to return to after the Diego Garcia debacle with the UK, Spain’s restriction on allowing the Pentagon to use its airbase there, and some EU countries not allowing US planes to overfly them; (3) if the US engages in economic coercion – which is always a risk with economic statecraft.

Notably, and logically, some note a ‘patriots’ paradox’, where even Trump’s far-right European allies refuse to support his EU trade deal. Indeed, as underlined before, historically this is why neo-mercantilists don’t unite: they all want to win in the zero-sum trade game. Indeed, all political sides are seeing some things the same way in Europe, it seems. Germany is planning how it can hurt the US in a trade war even though they have no escalation dominance as the net exporter; and Chancellor Merz just proposed a new trade deal with China, which is supporting Russia vs Ukraine, though Brussels knocked it back.

Moreover, Canada’s PM Carney is also trying to put together a ‘mega anti-Trump alliance’ to ‘save world trade’. As Politico puts, it “Nearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the WTO or, if it can’t be salvaged, to build a new order.” Without the US and China? The EU and UK are deeply reliant on the US (and China); Canada borders the US, and it, Peru, Chile, and Mexico are in Donroe Doctrine territory; Japan is a key, freshly-pledged US ally; Australia and New Zealand are totally reliant on US defence and access to Eurodollar borrowing; and Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia are in China’s neighborhood. (As China just threatened Mexico with trade reprisals over its new 50% import duties.)

That’s already a lot for markets to try to (in)digest today. Yet it’s also necessary to include that the FT reports the US Treasury market is showing signs of strain as the Iran war sparks tumult – any problems there are problems almost everywhere; more FOMC members are worrying about the potential impact of the war on the US economy, as the OECD suggests inflation could reach as high as 4.2%; the Fed’s Miran argues the central bank could cut its balance sheet by up to $2tn ‘without any market turmoil’; and President Trump’s signature is going to appear on paper dollars, making him the first sitting president to see this happen.

Whether that latter news is good or bad for the dollar, like so much else around us, ultimately pivots around the outcome of this war vs Iran.

Let’s hope for a quiet weekend – we haven’t had one in quite some time.

While the preliminary UMich survey was undertaken between February 17 and March 9, with about half completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran, today’s final print includes the full month with all the conflict’s escalations (and de-escalations).

Expectations were for the headline sentiment index to tumble with expectations projected to fall most and consensus was right with the expectations tumbling from 54.1 to  51.7 and current conditions down from 57.8 to 55.8 (worse than expected). Put together, the headline sentiment index fall from 55.5 to 53.3 (worse than expected) – the lowest reading of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment. Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.

As UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu notes: “These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future.”

Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran.

Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. 

Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%.

Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date…

Only 28% of consumers expect interest rates to fall in the year ahead, down from 35% last month and nearly half of consumers 6 months ago.

Expectations for other elements of the economy, including personal finances, business conditions, labor markets, and stock markets, also deteriorated this month.

Decreases in expectations for personal finances and business conditions were much sharper for the short run than the long run.

However, Hsu concludes, “these views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.”

The already dismal LNG supply situation just got worse.

With up to 20% of global LNG flows shuttered due to the ongoing blockade of the Hormuz Strait and the extensive damage of Qatar LNG infrastructure, QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on some of ⁠its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts, including ‌for customers ⁠in Italy, Belgium, South Korea ⁠and China, effectively canceling contractual obligations. That would represent as many as 90 cargoes according to Bloomberg.

The move on Tuesday comes amid ongoing production and supply disruptions caused by the United States-Israeli war on Iran.

Force majeure is a clause in contracts that allows a party to be excused from its obligations due to unforeseeable events. Petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure.

Last week, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said an Iranian attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility wiped out about ⁠17 percent of the country’s LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and ⁠Asia. Repairs are expected to take 3-5 years. 

Saad al-Kaabi told the Reuters news agency that two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, the equipment used to liquefy natural gas, and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities were damaged in Iranian attacks.

The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years, he said.

The Iranian attack on Ras Laffan came after the Israeli military targeted Iran’s offshore South Pars gasfield, the largest in the world, located off the coast of the country’s southern Bushehr province. 

Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had condemned Israel for targeting South Pars, noting that the Iranian gasfield is an extension of Qatar’s North Field. Qatar and other Gulf countries have also condemned Iran’s continued attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, stressing that the strikes violate international law and the United Nations Charter.