Nvidia Unchanged Despite Big Earnings Beat And Solid Guidance

As we discussed extensively in our preview, besides the Q1 revenue and guidance ($82BN+ and $90BN whisper respectively), Wall Street was expecting to get more color on the following topics during today’s call and Q&A:

1. Potential for increased shareholder cash returns,
2. Vera Rubin ramp timing (2H 26E),
3. Gross margin durability (~75% amidst continued memory/other cost inflation),
4. Update to the $1 Trillion 25-27 forecast, esp. contribution from LPU racks, CPU and Vera Rubin Ultra, not included before
5. Potential upside from agentic AI to the server CPU business;
6. Competitive landscape changes against Google TPU, agentic CPU, other ASICs. 

With that in mind, here is what the world’s biggest company just reported for Q1:

• Revenue $81.62BN, beating Exp $79.19BN, but a bit light of the $82BN whisper 
• Adj EPS $1.87, beating Exp $1.76
• Adj. Gross Margin 75%, beating Exp. 74.5%

Solid all around. 

The company’s all-important disclosed Data Center revenue was a record $75.2 billion in Q1, up 21% from the previous quarter and up 92% from a year ago. Nvidia also said that Vera Rubin is on track for second half of 2026. 

“The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly across companies and industries. NVIDIA is uniquely positioned at the center of this transformation as the only platform that runs in every cloud, powers every frontier and open source model, and scales everywhere AI is produced — from hyperscale data centers to the edge.”

Looking ahead, the company guided to revenue of $91.0 billion (plus or minus 2%), which is on top of the whisper number that had been discussed earlier. Certainly a solid guide, especially since  NVIDIA is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook. 

Some more guidance:

• Additionally, gross margins are expected to be 74.9% and 75.0% (GAAP and non-GAAP)  plus or minus 50 basis points.
• Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $8.5 billion and $8.3 billion (GAAP and non-GAAP, respectively).

A quick word on margins: as Bloomberg explains,  75% in an environment where, as the CFO defends it, they are shifting between architectures and Blackwell-based platforms are ramping up. Typically new chip ramps pressure margins because yields and supply chains can be messy at the start/early on. Nvidia holding at 75% is good, if almost unrealistic. 

In Q1, the company generated $48.6 billion in free cash flow, a staggering amount, which helped fund $20.0 billion in shareholder returns in the form of shares repurchased and cash dividends (as of the end of the first quarter, the company had $38.5 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization). More importantly, the Board of Directors approved an additional $80.0 billion to the Company’s share repurchase authorization. Also of note, Nvidia’s cash and marketable debt were $50 billion at the end of the quarter. That was down by a couple of billion dollars. 

Another notable thing is that NVIDIA said it was transitioning to a new reporting framework that “better reflects its current and future growth drivers.” NVIDIA will have two market platforms — Data Center and Edge Computing.

• Within Data Center, NVIDIA will report two sub-markets, Hyperscale and ACIE, which incorporates AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise. Hyperscale will include revenue from the public clouds and the world’s largest consumer internet companies, while ACIE addresses NVIDIA’s growth opportunity in diverse AI purpose-built data centers and AI factories across industries and countries.
• Edge Computing highlights data processing devices for agentic and physical AI including PCs, game consoles, workstations, AI-RAN base stations, robotics and automotive.

Under the previous sub-markets, Data Center compute revenue was a record $60.4 billion, up 77% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially. Data Center networking revenue was a record $14.8 billion, up 199% from a year ago and up 35% sequentially. The only problem: Compute missed expectations, which probably explains why NVDA will no longer break it out.

And another red flag: inventory soared. Usually this is a horrible sign for component makers. In this case Nvidia is saying that it has been spending to secure strategic inventory and capacity to “meet demand beyond the next several quarters.” Of course, there would not be a shortage to begin with if inventory was not being massively stockpiled.

In any case, the market is glossing over the negatives, and focusing on the solid beat and guidance (even if compute appears to be lagging), and as a result after briefly dumping then pumping, the stock is unchanged, which means all that options traders who were betting on a 5.5% move after hours are about to see their calls and puts expire worthless.