Polymarket Sees 69% Chance Guilfoyle Out By Month’s End As Trump, Rubio Weigh Firing

Prediction markets have dramatically repriced the tenure of Kimberly Guilfoyle as US Ambassador to Greece.

As of Monday, Polymarket traders put a 69% probability on her being out of the post by October 31 – up sharply from the mid-single digits just days earlier – after reporting that President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are actively considering her removal.

A senior U.S. official told the Associated Press that Trump and Rubio are “extremely pissed off” by the accumulating allegations of improper conduct and would likely decide this week after the Columbus Day holiday. Rubio was described as particularly angry: he had just visited Athens, where Guilfoyle attended most of his events and greeted him with a bear hug as the stories circulated. The State Department’s inspector general is examining the claims.

This follows ZeroHedge’s earlier coverage of the two main strands of Wall Street Journal reporting that have driven the controversy. In late September we noted the firestorm after Guilfoyle was reported to have told Greek officials, during a March dinner discussing the collapse of Romania’s government, that “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here.” The Journal has also detailed her promotion of a Greek construction and energy company’s interests (Aktor Group) across the Balkans, including allowing its lobbyist into diplomatic meetings, while pushing U.S. LNG sales via the “vertical gas corridor.”

Days later the Journal published the donor texts: six days before her July 9, 2025 Senate confirmation hearing, Guilfoyle allegedly messaged Trump donor Eric Deters on Signal asking him to wire $100,000 to her American Express account in a way that “won’t show up anywhere,” while he sought her help securing administration attention on personal tax and legal matters. Deters has said the relationship involved roughly $300,000 in prior appearance fees and discussions of up to $1 million more for influence; he has called the $100k request “absolutely a quid pro quo” and labeled her “a grifter.” Her lawyers have disputed the authenticity of the messages and said any money sought related to unpaid pre-nomination speaking fees.

Newer Journal reporting has added claims of luxury travel funded by Greek businessmen. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Guilfoyle was recorded boasting about flying on a private jet with Aktor CEO Alexandros Exarchou and later traveling with shipping tycoon Nikolas Tsakos; she reportedly told an American businessman seeking an invitation to an Eric Trump dinner, “You know, I can deliver the world to you… I’m going to make you a lot of f-ing money.” Embassy statements have said she followed State Department ethics and gift-reporting guidelines.

Her legal team (David Schwartz and Jesse Binnall) issued a statement late Sunday denying wrongdoing, asserting compliance with regulations on private travel, and indicating they are evaluating legal remedies over the claimed speaking-fee debt. Rubio had praised her as an “incredibly effective advocate” in a statement ahead of his Athens visit, and while there called her a “strong ambassador” even as he refused to address the reports, telling journalists that press accounts are “not the gospel.” Trump has previously described the situation as “too bad” while saying he had heard little and that she was “always very nice.”

The Polymarket contract resolves “Yes” if Guilfoyle ceases to be ambassador for any period before the stated date (including via announcement of resignation or removal), based on official information or a consensus of credible reporting. Volume has climbed past $60,000 total as the October 31 contract moved from the mid-single digits into the 60s over the weekend; the December 31 contract sits around 73%.