After new home sales soared (thanks to prior downward revisions) and existing home sales plunged in March (along with the collapse in housing starts and permits in March), this morning’s pending home sales data was expected to rise very modestly MoM (less than in February) but remain lower on a YoY basis.
In an odd turn of events, pending home sales beat on a MoM (SA) basis (+3.4% vs +0.4% exp) but missed on a YoY (NSA) basis (-4.5% vs -3.0% exp). Sales were up 0.1% YoY on a seasonally-adjusted basis…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the 28th straight month of YoY declines for non-seasonally-adjusted pending home sales.
That leaves pending home sales hovering just off record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
The gains were led by the South and the West, and, to a lesser extent, the Northeast, with the MidWest seeing sales slump 4.3$ MoM. All regions are lower on a YoY basis.
While the pending-sales index reached a high point, “it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.”
And given the tight correlation with mortgage rates, it looks like pending home sales are set to continue their downward slope…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, the pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/25/2024 – 10:06
