Following last month’s ugly decline (“see the consumer is getting crushed because of Trump”), August’s retail sales is expected to rebound strongly (“see, Trump’s war is causing Americans to spend more on gas and less on Louboutin shoes”). BofA’s omniscient analysts agree with consensus, seeing a 0.8% MoM jump…
Quick reality check – July retail sales weakness was driven by a plunge in non-discretionary spending by higher income households…
So, what did August bring?
Headline US retail sales rose a shocking 1.2% MoM – the biggest jump since March, pulling sales up 6.0% YoY…
…driven by a big reversal in non-store retailer (online) sales…
Core (Ex-Autos & Gas) soared 1.4% MoM – its strongest month since Sept 2024
The Control Group – which feeds into the GDP calculation – jumped almost triple expectations (+1.4% MoM vs +0.5% exp).
Under the hood, Building Materials Sales were the only component that declined MoM…
Finally, Real retail sales – admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI – continues to trend higher…
“August’s retail sales mirror the strong payrolls report, dispelling worries about a slowdown anytime soon. Even if higher prices are making consumers unhappy, they’re not doing much to hurt the economy yet. Higher important and export prices also showed inflationary pressures,” says David Russell, head market strategist at TradeStation.
“The data is hawkish and the case for a rate hike keeps growing.”
So, the consumer is strong and spending after all… despite near record low sentiment?
Real data versus Democrat-biased sentiment? Is it really worse than the very trough of the COVID pandemic?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/16/2026 – 08:38
