Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that President Trump’s goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

“Think about it, Donald Trump announces the External Revenue Service, and his goal is very simple (…) his goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay,” Lutnick told Fox News host Jesse Watters.

Lutnick: Donald Trump announced the external revenue service, and his goal is simple: to abolish the internal revenue service and let all the outsiders pay. pic.twitter.com/k8KIUS8evR

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 20, 2025

Trump has said that the External Revenue Service will force foreign trade partners to “finally pay their fair share,” and has previously floated the idea of abolishing federal income taxes as part of his plans for “tariffing and taxing foreign nations to enrich our citizens.”

Lutnick also said that Elon Musk and DOGE were “going to cut” $1 trillion, “and then we’re going to get rid of all these tax scams that hammer against America, and we’re going to raise a trillion dollars of revenue.“

The IRS is responsible for collecting the federal taxes from individuals and corporations – taking in some $823 billion in individual taxes in 2024, roughly 52% of total revenue, according to the Treasury Department.

Lutnick’s remarks come as the IRS is reportedly looking to lay off thousands of workers. According to the Associated Press, the agency will start by letting go roughly 7,000 probationary workers in Washington and around the country. Those with roughly one year or less of service at the agency – largely in compliance departments – will be affected, according to the report.

The layoffs are part of the Trump administration’s intensified efforts to shrink the size of the federal workforce through the Department of Government Efficiency by ordering agencies to lay off nearly all probationary employees who have not yet gained civil service protection. They come despite IRS employees involved in the 2025 tax season being told earlier this month that they would not be allowed to accept a buyout offer from the Trump administration until mid-May, after the taxpayer filing deadline.

It’s unclear how the layoffs may affect tax collection services this year. As the nation’s revenue collector, the IRS was tasked during the Biden administration with targeting high-wealth tax evaders for an additional stream of income to the U.S., which is $36 trillion in debt. By the end of 2024, the IRS collected over $1.3 billion in back taxes from rich tax dodgers. -AP

On Wednesday, the NY Times reported that the IRS would begin laying off roughly 6,000 employees on Thursday, and will target ‘relatively recent hires which the Biden administration had attempted to revitalize with a surge of funding and new staff.’ According to that report, IRS managers on Wednesday began asking their employees to bring their government-issued equipment to the office.

“Under an executive order, I.R.S. has been directed to terminate probationary employees who were not deemed critical to filing season,” one email reads. “We don’t have many details that we are permitted to share, but this is all tied to compliance with the executive order.”

According to former IRS official Dave Kautter, “There’s a flood of résumés from people at the I.R.S. looking for jobs throughout the tax community,” adding “Law firms are getting a fair number of résumés, accounting firms are getting a fair number of résumés.”

The IRS employs roughly 90,000 people across the country.

*  *  *

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Retired US Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, is in Kiev where on Thursday he had an (apparently) brief meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

A scheduled post-meeting news conference has been unexpectedly canceled, though no reason was immediately forthcoming, according to a Ukrainian official, presidential spokesman Serhii Nikiforov. The US side made no comment upon the presser’s cancelation.

The Associated Press observes, “When the meeting began, photographers and video journalists were allowed into a room where the two men shook hands before sitting across from each other at a table at the presidential office in Kyiv.”

What’s the latest in the growing feud that let up to this?

President Trump on Wednesday night continued bashing Ukraine’s Zelensky, this time describing that his officials treated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “rudely” during his visit to Kiev last week.

Trump further said that Zelensky chose to sleep instead of meeting with the high-ranking American official to discuss the White House proposed mineral rights deal. “Zelensky was sleeping and unavailable to meet him,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump’s comments:

Trump exposes Zelensky’s disgusting treatment of Treasury Sec Bessent, who says may scrap Russia sanctions pic.twitter.com/otuHppZFrn

— RT (@RT_com) February 20, 2025

The Treasury Secretary had “traveled many hours on the train, which is a dangerous trip,” Trump added, characterizing the whole visit as futile given the Ukrainians “told him ‘no'” on the deal for America to acquire 50% of the country’s rare earth minerals.

Trump’s anti-Zelensky rhetoric, which included him calling him a “dictator” yesterday, has grown to the point that many pundits see that the Ukrainian president’s exit is nigh. Trump is pressuring Kiev for new elections, which would require parliament to change the constitution.

Vice President J.D. Vance also warned Wednesday that Zelensky will only bring harm on himself should be continue ‘badmouthing’ President Trump. This was in reference to Zelensky asserting that Trump is living in a Russian “disinformation space”. 

Vance’s warnings were conveyed in an interview published in the Daily Mail:

“The idea that Zelensky is going to change the president’s mind by badmouthing him in public media, everyone who knows the president will tell you that is an atrocious way to deal with this administration,” Vance said. 

“We obviously love the Ukrainian people,” but “we obviously think that this war needs to come to a rapid close,” he added. 

And Vance followed with a reminder: “That is the policy of the president of the United States. It is not based on Russian disinformation.”

Elon Musk has defended the Trump admin’s fierce critique of Zelensky. For example, Musk had tweeted out the following list by prominent pro-Trump account @DC_Draino: 

Want to know why Trump called Zelensky a Dictator? Here are the FACTS:

• He’s in year 6 of his 5 year term
• Declared martial law Feb 2022 and has banned elections since then
• Banned 11 political parties
• Passed law in 2022 to censor journalists and combined all news into one gov’t station
• Journalists investigating his corruption get conscripted and thrown on the front lines to die

The list ended with the observation that “Even Saddam Hussein held elections!” We should add to this list the ongoing persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church by the Zelensky government, merely because it maintains spiritual communion with the Moscow Patriarchate.

Must watch. The truth about the Ukraine persecution of the canonical Church. https://t.co/4xpUyxSfKL

— Fr. Michael Lillie (@FrLillie) February 20, 2025

At this point, many pundits believe it’s only a matter of time before there’s a change in Ukraine’s government. European leaders are of course rallying around Zelensky, but the pressure and power of Washington is a different matter, and in essence Trump is warning that if the Zelensky doesn’t achieve peace, there will be drastic changes in Kiev.

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

It is more than just a hockey game.

On Feb. 20, the National Hockey League’s best American players will face off against its best Canadian players once again in the championship bout of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. It is round two of a rivalry match nearly a decade overdue, colliding national politics with sport on a level that has American fans reminiscing about their 1980 Miracle on Ice victory against the Soviet Union.

The Canadians, meanwhile, whose national identity is directly tied to hockey, appeared to indicate the feelings around this series are mutual by booing the U.S. national anthem during their first match of the tournament on Feb. 15 in Montreal.

Now, anthem booing started before the 4 Nations tournament, occurring as far back as the weekend of Feb. 1 at the start of NHL games in Ottawa, Calgary, and Vancouver. The U.S. anthem was also booed at the start of NBA games, with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Los Angeles Clippers and then the New York Knicks.

However, this booing ensued despite Bell Centre requesting that all fans show respect to both anthems, and it was followed by Team USA starting three fights in the first nine seconds of play.

While it was widely reported and assumed that the fights were directly related to the disrespect, brothers Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, and JT Miller revealed that they were already planning to start the game off with fights in a group chat.

However, Team USA’s general manager, Bill Guerin, didn’t rule out the current political climate as inspiration for the physicality when he appeared on Fox’s “America’s Newsroom” on Feb. 17.

“I think a little bit of everything. Canada-U.S. is a huge rivalry in hockey,” he said. “I think there was a little bit of a political flare to it. It’s just the time that we’re in. I think our guys used that as inspiration. If you let it get the better of you, then you’re in trouble. But I really do think the players used it as inspiration.”

The rivalry has lacked intensity of late, since the last time NHL players had international best-on-best games was the 2016 World Cup of Hockey in Toronto. Team USA played Canada in the 2022 and 2018 Winter Olympics, but NHL players didn’t participate.

Why are Canadians disrespecting the U.S. anthem? It is most likely due to President Donald Trump, who, in the early days of his second presidency, threatened Canada with tariffs and expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st state.

“You will turn a loyal friend into a resentful neighbor, forced to match tariff with tariff and to seek friends everywhere else,” Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre warned the U.S. during a Canada-First rally on Feb. 15, promising his audience, “Let me be clear: We will never be the 51st state.”

In response to the tariff threat, Canadians have also recently threatened to boycott American products, as well as visiting states like Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dismissed the threats on Feb. 19, saying on X, “We frequently hear about different threats to boycott Florida, and yet our tourism numbers continue to grow year after year. …  I doubt this time will be any different.”

Canada scored the first goal of the game on Feb. 15, but the United States went on to win 3-1, with crushing hits to national heroes like Sydney Crosby and Connor McDavid in the process. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in attendance.

The game ended Canada’s 17-game win streak in best-on-best play against the United States as well as its 26-game win streak with Crosby on the roster.

“We needed to send a message,” Matthew Tkachuk said of the fights and win to the Associated Press. “The message we wanted to send is ‘It’s our time.’”

His brother Brady mentioned before the game that he was excited to play the villain role, and his teammates echoed that sentiment.

“We’re kind of the bad guys, it’s a fun role to play,” defenseman Noah Hanifin said. “I know the environment tomorrow is going to be probably the most intense I’ve ever been a part of. So it’s these moments you dream of and it’s exciting to be a part of it. It’s stuff that you’ll take with you the rest of your life.”

This was set up to be an exhibition all-star tournament midway through the season. It is not recognized by the International Ice Hockey Federation, the International Olympic Committee, or any international sporting authority.

Yet, the privilege to represent one’s country has these guys driving full speed, a stark contrast to traditional all-star events.

“It’s kind of like a Game 7,” McDavid said. “A lot of guys in this room have been in that situation before. Got to get a win.”

The NHL confirmed that more than 10 million people across North America tuned in to watch the game on Feb. 15, and more are expected to tune in on Feb. 20 as the action highlights spread.

One of those viewers could be Trump, as Guerin told Fox News that the president was welcomed.

“We would love it if President Trump was in attendance. We have a room full of proud American players and coaches and staff,” he said. “And listen, we’re just trying to represent our country the best way we can.”

Come Friday, the regular season will resume. Many American players will return to Canadian teams, including Austin Matthews, Team USA’s captain, who will resume his role as captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Likewise, Canadian players will return to the United States, including Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and head coach Jon Cooper, who will all go back to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But until then, sports fans have one more night of nation-first hockey.

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

President Trump signed his executive order, PRESERVING FEDERAL BENEFITS FOR AMERICAN CITIZENS, Wednesday night “to ensure taxpayer resources are not used to incentivize or support illegal immigration.”

Details of the EO are here.

Wednesday afternoon, Trump delivered remarks in front of a group of billionaires at the Faena Hotel during Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund’s FII PRIORITY Miami 2025 conference.

A White House official told Melugin that Trump’s executive order will direct federal agency and department heads to identify all federally funded programs that provide financial benefits to illegal aliens, and for them to “take corrective action.”

The measure is reportedly designed to ensure that any federal funds to states and localities “will not be used to support sanctuary policies or assist illegal immigration.”

While illegal aliens are not supposed to be eligible for welfare programs, the Biden-Harris regime abused loopholes to confer “status” to millions of non citizens as a part of their catch-and-release agenda, the Economic Policy Innovation Center pointed out in its December 2024 report.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), there were 10.8 million encounters with illegal aliens between fiscal years 2021 and 2024. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the net immigration of illegal immigrants totaled 7.3 million between FY 2021 and 2024. In comparison, net migration of illegals was negative in the four years prior to this.

For the past four years, illegal aliens have been receiving welfare benefits from many different public assistance programs, including:

• Food Stamps (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, “SNAP”)

• Child nutrition programs

• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

• Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG)

• Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

• Child Tax Credit (CTC)

• Obamacare Premium Tax Credit

• Obamacare cost sharing subsidies

• Medicare

• Medicaid

• Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)

• Pell Grants

• Student loans

• Head Start

• Public housing

• Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund (SLFRF)

The cost of welfare programs for noncitizens  is estimated to be in the billions.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimated that federal expenditures on illegal aliens in 2023 totaled nearly $66.5 billion, including more than $23 billion in federal medical expenditures and $11.6 billion in welfare benefits from Food Stamps, child nutrition, SSI, and other programs.

In its “Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration On United States Taxpayers 2023” report, FAIR estimated that the net cost of illegal immigration for the United States at the federal, state, and local levels at the start of 2023 was at least $150.7 billion.

The Manhattan Institute estimated that “every new illegal immigrant has an average net fiscal burden of about $130,000.”

The Institute reported that “the border crisis is expected to cost $1.15 trillion over the lifetime of the new immigrants who entered the country unlawfully, overstayed a visa, or were paroled.”

According to a House Homeland Security Committee November 2023 report,  Americans had already paid billions for hospital expenses, shelter, and the education of the children of illegal immigrants, including $5.4 billion in “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in FY 2022.

Trump’s executive order will “mandate improvements in eligibility verification to prevent federal benefits” from being spent so lavishly on people in the US illegally,” Melugin reported.

Meanwhile, U.S. Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks released a video Wednesday letting potential illegal border crossers know they are NOT welcome in the USA and will face “serious consequences” if caught.

“Our message is clear – the border is NOT open to illegal immigration,” Banks declared. 

“If you attempt to cross our borders you will be arrested, detained and processed for removal under U.S. law,” he added.

Banks noted that Border Patrol under Trump is “fully engaged” and using “advanced technology” to catch border crossers

“Do not believe smugglers’ lies,” he warned. “Crossing illegally is dangerous and you will face serious consequences—immediate removal, and a ban on reentry.”

The White House official said the order “shows Trump is committed to prioritizing that federal public health benefits go towards American citizens, including veterans.”

Thursday was a somber and tragic day for Israel as the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages were returned by Hamas, 503 days after they were initially kidnapped in the Oct.7, 2023 raids on southern Israel and massacres.

“Hamas had said earlier in the week that it was handing over the bodies of Shiri Silberman Bibas, her two young sons Ariel and Kfir, and Oded Lifshitz, who was 83 at the time of his abduction,” Times of Israel writes.

Ariel and Kfir Bibas were the two youngest hostages taken to Gaza, and were just 4-years old and 9-months old at the time.

Israeli officials were outraged that as usual, the handover ceremony in Khan Younis was done on a stage covered with propaganda posters. The bodies were transferred to the Red Cross, who then transported the coffins to Israel. All four had been initially taken from Kibbutz Nir Oz in southern Israel.

It’s unclear how precisely the captives died, also in terms of when or where in captivity, but what’s clear is the young had been taken alive:

The mother and children were taken captive from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Video of the abduction, with a terrified Shiri Bibas seen swaddling her two redheaded boys in a blanket and being whisked away by armed men, ricocheted around the world in the hours after the attack.

Yarden Bibas, the father, was abducted and held separately and released on Feb. 1, as part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that paused the 15-month-long war in Gaza. During the first phase, a total of 33 hostages are to be freed in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Eight of those 33 were said by Israel to be dead.

Below: the footage viewed around the world showing the family’s kidnapping…

Each and every one of them will pay pic.twitter.com/b5IbdxlrDH

— נועה מגיד | Noa magid (@NoaMagid) February 19, 2025

Kfir was by far the youngest of about 30 total children taken hostage, and the baby’s father, Yarden Bibas, had been  kidnapped but held separately, and released on Feb. 1 during the first phase of the current ceasefire and hostage release deal.

Israel’s Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli blasted the whole handover ordeal of small coffins, saying “a society that cultivates a culture of murder and death has no right to exist.”

Grim images of the handover of the bodies:

Aerial view shows dozens waving Hamas flags during the Red Cross’ takeover of Israeli hostages’ bodies in Gaza https://t.co/LFrvafmy37 pic.twitter.com/f4arRJNXzK

— RT (@RT_com) February 20, 2025

“One of the West’s greatest failures is its refusal to acknowledge the existence of pure evil. We have raised generations to believe that monsters exist only in fairy tales, that there is no true right or wrong, and that all cultures are equal,” the Likud minister wrote on X.

“And then comes this accursed day, a day of horror and shame, when an elderly man, a mother, and her two children: Oded Lipschitz, Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir Bibas — who were slaughtered by Hamas terrorists, paraded like trophies before a cheering, flag-waving crowd in Gaza. Pure evil. And against such evil, there can be no excuses, rationalizations, or compromises,” he wrote in English.

Hamas has claimed it was actually Israeli bombs and attacks on Gaza which in the end killed the slain hostages, which they emphasized in propaganda posters featuring a bloody, monstrous Netanyahu…

Meanwhile, international reports as well as the Vatican have said that the death toll among Palestinians in Gaza has exceeded 44,000 – including 13,000 children – figures largely based on Gaza sources. American-supplied weapons were also heavily relied upon during the lengthy ground and air operation which has decimated the strip.

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose very modestly to 219k last week – still hovering around multi-decade lows

Source: Bloomberg

But, amid DOGE’s demolition of the Deep State, we note one region that is seeing initial jobless claims soar this year… The District Of Columbia…

Source: Bloomberg

DC is the major standout year-to-date in terms of percentage rise in jobless claims…

But California dominated the decrease in jobless claims last week, while Kentucky and Tennessee saw the biggest rise…

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims continue to hold near 4 year highs around 1.9 million Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

So, for now, the decline of employment in DC is NOT knocking into the rest of the US economy – does that mean they were completely unproductive?

US equity futures slide from the latest record high as concerns around trade tariffs and a disappointing outlook from Walmart weighed on sentiment. As of 8:00am ET, contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 slipped about 0.3% as Mag7 names are mixed with Semis lower. Palantir was among the biggest losers in US premarket trading, on track to extend Wednesday’s 10% slide, after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined plans to cut military spending by 8% over the coming years.  Walmart plunged 8%, the most in a year, after the company’s guidance disappointed Wall Street.  Europe’s Stoxx 50 continues its ascent rising 0.6% led by real estate and auto sector. The potential for a pausing of the Fed’s QT hinted in yesterday’s FOMC minutes helped a late-day rally and Trump says a bigger China trade deal is possible but says there is a shot clock for Ukraine to find a deal. Bond yields are down 2-3bps with the USD weaker as the yen continues its recent surge. Commodities are seeing strength in both Ags and Metals; gold set a fresh all-time high above $2950. The macro data focus is on Jobless Claims and the Leading Indicator Index.

In premarket trading, Walmart plunged 8% after forecasting lower-than-expected profit for the full year, citing an uncertain economic environment. Some retail stocks decline after Walmart’s profit outlook: Costco (COST) -1.4%, Dollar Tree (DLTR) -1%, Target (TGT) -2%. Video game platform Vimeo and used car retailer Carvana also slumped in premarket after disappointing earnings. China’s Alibaba was a bright spot, adding more than 10% after third-quarter revenues beat estimates. Its result also helped lift Chinese e-commerce peers, with JD.com Inc. and PDD Holdings Inc. both rallying in premarket trading. Amazon is among the laggards in the Magnificent Seven stocks (GOOGL +0.04%, AMZN -0.6%, AAPL -0.3%, MSFT +0.2%, META -0.5%, NVDA +0.06% and TSLA +0.3%). Here are some other notable movers:

• Amplitude (AMPL) rises 17% after the software company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2025 above the average analyst estimate. DA Davidson issues an upgrade, noting a faster turnaround in the business than anticipated.
• BioMarin (BMRN) jumps 9% after the drugmaker forecast adjusted profits and revenue for 2025 that impressed Wall Street. Cantor says the guidance sets the stage for another year of strong growth.
• Carvana (CVNA) drops 9% after the used-car retailer reported lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes for the latest quarter.
• Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) jumps 16% after the financial technology company provided a 1Q and year revenue forecasts that topped estimates.
• Grab Holdings (GRAB) slides 8% after the delivery company issued full-year revenue guidance that disappointed analysts.
• Herbalife (HLF) jumps 19% after the nutrition company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates. The company named Stephan Gratziani as its CEO.
• NerdWallet (NRDS) rises 10% after the consumer-finance company forecast 1Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. The company announced the appointment of Jun Hyung Lee as CFO.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares fall 4% and look set to extend losses after dropping 10% on Wednesday on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan to reduce projected US military spending by 8% over the next five years.
• Vimeo (VMEO) slumps 20% after the video platform forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2025 below what analysts expected, citing a desire to invest as much as $30 million incrementally in the business.
• Wayfair (W) falls 6% after posting a wider-than-expected 4Q loss.

The mixed corporate results added to market jitters over Donald Trump’s threats to widen trade tariffs and his wavering support for Ukraine and its European allies. The geopolitical tensions lifted gold prices to a new record above $2,954 an ounce.The dollar and Treasury yields slipped after Federal Reserve’s minutes revealed policymakers had discussed pausing or slowing its balance-sheet runoff.

“We saw a shift in the tone of the US on how they are going to approach the Russia-Ukraine environment, and this shifting tone is bringing about some uncertainty for markets,” said Shaniel Ramjee, investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.

Data on US weekly jobless claims are due later, with economists expecting the figure to hold more or less steady from the previous week. The report may also give an early insight into the impact of the Trump administration’s sweep of the federal workforce.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher after Wednesday’s decline, though sombre earnings capped the recovery. The
Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3% after logging its largest drop this year on Wednesday even as shares in Renault SA, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Airbus SE slipped after their results, while US-exposed defense stocks, such as BAE Systems Plc and Qinetiq Group Plc, also lost ground. Resource stocks are leading gains, while US-exposed defense names were undermined by US plans to cut military spending.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Centrica is the best-performing stock on the wider European benchmark, gaining as much as 11%, the most since 2020, after the British Gas owner reported strong results and an additional £500m share buyback.
• Schneider Electric gains as much as 8.3% on the back of an impressive fourth-quarter report, according to analysts, which see solid upside to current consensus after both key 4Q figures and 2025 outlook beat, with shares expected to show some relief after Chinese AI platform DeepSeek shook investor views.
• Repsol shares climb as much as 5.3 % after the Spanish oil company’s 4Q profit beat estimates.
• Lloyds shares rise as much as 4% to hit their highest level since late-2019 after the bank reported fourth-quarter earnings. Profits came in weaker than expected as it booked more provisions related to motor finance, but analysts at Shore said this is not a surprise.
• Carrefour shares drop as much as 8.2% in Paris to the lowest intraday level since May 2020, after the grocer issued 2025 guidance that analysts viewed as weak, with several predicting downgrades to profit expectations.
• Mercedes shares fall as much as 3.8% after the German automaker posts what Bernstein called “predictably weak” 2025 passenger cars outlook and its vans guidance missed estimates.
• Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 7.3% after the Danish drug developer reported results for the full year and provided a forecast for net operating expenses in 2025.
• Airbus shares fall as much as 3.4%, the biggest intraday drop in three months, as analysts pointed to disappointing 2025 guidance from the plane maker, as well as an underwhelming result for its defense and space unit and dividend.
• BE Semi shares fall as much as 11% after the Dutch chip equipment firm reported quarterly orders that were nearly 30% below consensus estimates and provided guidance short of expectations.
• Tenaris shares fall as much as 4.5%, the most since August, on the back of its latest earnings. While the steel-tube and pipeline maker reported a solid beat on quarterly Ebitda, the company’s outlook is somewhat clouded by the threat of US tariffs.

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia fell, as US-Ukraine tensions and the Fed’s commentary on interest-rate cuts hurt sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6%, the most in more than two weeks, with Hong Kong-listed shares among the biggest drags. Alibaba fell ahead of reporting earnings, while Meituan declined on a plan to expand its pension plan. Shares traded lower in Japan and Australia. The Fed’s openness to keeping rates on hold for longer, combined with increasing concerns about geopolitical tensions and trade wars, dented sentiment. Markets softened as investors watch whether remarks by US President Donald Trump that were highly critical of Ukraine’s leader might take “an ugly turn,” and what that would mean for Europe, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index falls 0.3% as the Japanese yen strengthens 0.9% against the dollar, rising to its strongest level since December amid growing speculation the Bank of Japan will hike rates sooner rather than later. The Aussie dollar also outperforms its G-10 peers, adding 0.6% against the greenback after hiring topped estimates. 

In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields drop 3bps to 4.50%.  Treasuries briefly ticked higher after Bessent said terming out US debt is “a long way off.” Bunds also little changed; gilts lag by about 3bp in the 10-year sector, bunds by about 1bp. Japanese 10-year government bond yields hit its highest level since 2009 on expectations of a strong inflation print on Friday. US session includes weekly jobless claims data, 30-year TIPS auction and four Fed speakers. Treasury sells $9b 30-year TIPS in a new-issue auction at 1pm New York time

In commodities, oil prices tread water, with WTI near $72.20 a barrel. Spot gold rises $20 to a record high near $2,955/oz. Bitcoin rises 1% above $97,000.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes February Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and January Leading index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (9:35am), Musalem (12:05pm), Barr (2:30pm) and Kugler (5pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,149.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 553.77
• MXAP down 0.6% to 188.41
• MXAPJ down 0.7% to 593.51
• Nikkei down 1.2% to 38,678.04
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,734.60
• Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 22,576.98
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,350.78
• Sensex down 0.3% to 75,733.72
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 8,322.82
• Kospi down 0.7% to 2,654.06
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.55%
• Euro little changed at $1.0432
• Brent Futures little changed at $76.10/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,952.14
• US Dollar Index down 0.19% to 106.97

Top Overnight News

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Politico
• Trump said the golden age of the US is back and it is open for business, while he will be working with Congress to pass the largest tax cuts in US history and will dramatically cut taxes with no taxes on tips and hopefully no taxes on social security. Furthermore, Trump said they are considering a new concept where they will give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and with 20% to go to paying down debt.
• Trump said he is not happy with Boeing (BA) about Air Force One and could buy a used plane or a plane from another country, but also commented that he would not consider buying a plane from Airbus.
• Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins told reporters Wednesday afternoon that funding negotiations with Democrats “are not going well” as lawmakers stare down a government shutdown deadline in just over three weeks. Politico
• US House Speaker Johnson says he is waiting on a “few” developments that “might have a big effect” on the reconciliation bill: Punchbowl
• Traders are ditching America-first wagers just a month into Trump’s second term. Instead of extending the period of US exceptionalism in global equities, the S&P’s record run has still left it trailing European, Chinese and Mexican benchmarks. BBG
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said the Fed can take time when weighing the next monetary policy move and US economic performance has been quite strong, while he added that US monetary policy remains restrictive, the US labor market is solid and inflation has eased but is still elevated.
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said inflation has come down but it is still too high and once inflation has come down, rates can come down more.
• US Pentagon later commented that the budget review aims to save about USD 50bln which will be spent on programs aligned with US President Trump’s priorities.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump’s goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service, according to a Fox interview cited by Reuters.
• TikTok makes global layoffs at trust and safety unit as part of restructuring, according to Reuters sources.
• Chinese officials on Thursday vowed to step up efforts to attract foreign direct investment as tensions with the US threaten to accelerate the exit of factories and research centers owned by multinational companies. China’s cabinet recently approved a 20-point action plan to stabilize investment from abroad. Nikkei
• The RBI is set to buy the biggest amount of bonds in four years to tackle a cash crunch in the banking system, according to economists. BBG
• More than 60% of Japanese companies — a record high percentage — plan to raise workers’ wages next year as they fight to recruit and retain staff. BBG
• The European Union is prepared to talk with the United States about reducing its 10 percent tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war. Politico
• UK consumer confidence sank to the lowest level since Labour came to power, the British Retail Consortium said. Half of those surveyed expect the economy to worsen over the next three months. BBG
• Fed officials can take their time before considering any additional rate cuts, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said, citing the economy’s strength. Austan Goolsbee told an ABC affiliate that inflation is still too high. BBG
• Alibaba rose premarket after third-quarter revenue beat (ADR +6.5%). Revenue at Yuan 280B small beat with Est 277B, EPS at 21.4

Tariffs

• US President Trump said he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors, chips, pharma and probably lumber over the next month or sooner, while he is looking at a 25% tariff on lumber and forest products. Trump also said he is speaking to China on TikTok and later commented that a new trade deal with China is possible.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the EU is prepared to talk with the US about reducing its 10% tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war, according to POLITICO.
• China Commerce Ministry says China has been doing its best to push for EU negotiations. Hoped that the EU side will heed industry’s calls and promote bilateral investment cooperation through dialogue. Urges the US to stop misleading the American people and international community. Urges the US to handle US-Sino relations in an objective and rational manner

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined with sentiment dampened by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and after US President Trump’s latest comments in which he repeated criticism against Ukrainian President Zelensky and said he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors, chips, pharma and probably lumber over the next month or sooner. ASX 200 was pressured with mining, materials and financials among the worst performing sectors, while participants digested a slew of earnings releases including from the likes of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. Nikkei 225 suffered from the ill effects of a firmer currency and slipped beneath the 39,000 level as Japan’s 10yr yield initially climbed to its highest since November 2009. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid trade frictions and US tariff threats, while China unsurprisingly maintained the Loan Prime Rates. However, the mainland index eventually returned to flat territory and there were recent reports that US President Trump is eying a bigger and better trade deal with China that would include substantial investment and commitments for China to buy more US products.

Top Asian News

• PBoC holds a 2025 macro prudential work conference; will step up the analysis of macroeconomic and financial work. Real Estate: Will help the real estate market stop falling and stabilise. Support the construction of a new model of real estate development. Yuan: Will promote cross-border use of Yuan. Will develop Yuan offshore market. Will let currency swap and Yuan settlement play their roles.
• Times’ Waterfield posts “Russia pressed the US to withdraw security guarantees from eastern European and Nordic Nato allies in Riyadh, a new “Yalta” to divide Europe into spheres of American and Russian influence, according to a senior Romanian official”.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Feb) 3.10% vs. Exp. 3.10% (Prev. 3.10%); 5Y 3.60% vs. Exp. 3.60% (Prev. 3.60%)
• RBNZ Governor Orr said he is feeling more positive about the inflation situation and expects the cash rate will be around 3% by year-end, while he added “in an environment of low and stable inflation”. Orr later commented that there would have to be an economic shock to cut by 50bps again.
• NetEase Inc (NTES) Q4 2024 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.76), Revenue 3.70bln (exp. 3.71bln)
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Q4 2024 (CNY): EPS 21.39 (exp. 19.12.), Revenue 280.154bln (exp. 279.34bln)

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mixed, but sentiment has gradually improved as the morning progressed to display a more positive picture in Europe, paring back the hefty losses seen in the prior session. European sectors hold a positive bias vs initially opening mixed. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, with gains facilitated by strength in metals prices alongside post-earning upside in Anglo American (+3%) and Rio Tinto (+1%). Banks are towards the middle of the pile; Lloyds (+3.6%) saw its profit plunge 20%, but optimism stems from a GBP 1.7bln share buyback. For the Autos sector, both Mercedes (-2.5%) and Renault (-2.4%) dip after their results.

Top European News

• French President Macron to visit the US early next week, it is unclear whether this will be a joint meeting with UK PM Starmer, is likely US President Trump will meet them separately, according to reporter Rahman.
• Nordea believes the Riksbank will not deliver any further rate cuts and will remain at 2.25% for the entire horizon (prev. expected a cut to 2.00% in May); due to inflation being higher than expected.

FX

• USD is softer vs. all peers with DXY hampered by strength in the JPY on account of widening yield differentials. US yields were knocked lower post-FOMC minutes after the account showed various participants believed it might be appropriate to pause/slow balance sheet runoff. Today’s Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee, Musalem, Jefferson & Barr. Elsewhere, today’s other scheduled highlights include Treasury Secretary Bessent at 12:00GMT/07:00ET on Bloomberg TV with weekly claims and Philly Fed data to follow thereafter. DXY has returned to a 106 handle but is currently holding above Wednesday’s 106.87 low.
• EUR is slightly firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than most peers following losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the trade front, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the EU is prepared to talk with the US about reducing its 10% tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation. EUR/USD is currently stuck within yesterday’s 1.0400-61 parameters.
• USD/JPY retreated overnight amid initial gains in Japanese yields (and softness in their US counterparts post-FOMC minutes) alongside the negative risk appetite in Tokyo. The pair breached below the 150 mark in early European trade; further downside brings into play its 9th December low at 149.68.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than peers. UK newsflow for today has been light in a week where markets have digested firmer than expected labour market data and a mixed inflation report. Direction for Cable may be dictated more by the USD leg of the equation; currently tucked within Wednesday’s 1.2562-1.2639.
• Antipodeans are both notably stronger vs. the USD with AUD bolstered by stronger-than-expected jobs data in Australia in which employment change topped forecasts at 44k (exp. 20k) and was solely fuelled by full-time jobs. Sentiment was also bolstered by comments from US President Trump that a new trade deal with China is possible.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1712 vs exp. 7.2856 (prev. 7.1705).

Fixed Income

• USTs are modestly firmer. Action for USTs was pronounced in the later part of the US session given FOMC Minutes, 20yr supply, Trump/tariff updates and a handful of speakers. Since, US-specific newsflow has slowed a touch and we are now largely awaiting further details on Trump’s latest remarks, US data, Fed speak and the US Treasury Secretary. As it stands, USTs are holding toward session highs of 109-04+ having eclipsed Wednesday’s 109-00 best.
• Bunds are in the red. Bear-steepened on Wednesday before lifting off worst in-fitting with Treasuries, a move which slowed in APAC trade but briefly recommenced early doors this morning to a 131.63 peak. Though, this proved fleeting with the constructive European risk tone, ongoing reassessment following Schnabel’s hawkish remarks on Wednesday and the implications of Trump’s latest rhetoric weighing. Given this, Bunds continue to bear-steepen with the German 10yr yield notching an incremental new 2.55% WTD peak.
• On auctions, Spain was strong but spurred no move while the record French offering saw a 5x cover for the 2029 line and the top-amount sold. Lifting OATs from a 123.00 low by 15 ticks, sending them just into the green for the session.
• Gilts are echoing EGBs. The arguments around tariffs are much the same. Specifics include confirmation that UK PM Starmer will be visiting the US next week to meet with US President Trump. Potentially of note, initially reporting around this intimated it could be a joint visit with French President Macron – updates since suggest this is not the case. Currently at the lower-end of a 91.96-92.29 band.
• Italian Foreign Minister says they need European bond issuance to finance defence spending.
• Spain sells EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2030 & 3.55% 2033 Bono.
• France sells EUR 13.5bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 2.4% 2028, 0.0% 2029, 2.75% 2030 OAT.

Commodities

• A choppy session for crude prices thus far with the complex subdued in early European trade after experiencing gains in late APAC trade, and following Wednesday’s indecisive performance amid geopolitical uncertainty due to the recent US turnaround in foreign policy and with prices contained after bearish private sector inventory data. Brent resides in a 75.72-76.30/bbl range.
• Subdued action in natural gas with prices in Europe subdued by the prospect of milder weather in the upcoming period. Earlier today, a Russian attack damaged Ukrainian gas production facilities, according to the Energy Minister.
• Precious metals trade higher across the board amid the ongoing geopolitics, tariffs, USD weakness from FOMC minutes, and broader momentum after spot gold hit a fresh record high this morning. Spot gold topped USD 2,950/oz to a USD 2,954.95/oz peak at the time of writing (vs low 2,933.85/oz).
• Base metals trade higher across the board following a choppy APAC session but with the complex later supported by the softer Dollar and as sentiment during early European trade tilts higher. 3M LME copper resides in a 9,452.95-9,547.00/t range at the time of writing.
• Russian attack damaged Ukrainian gas production facilities, according to the Energy Minister. Brent resides in a 75.72-76.30/bbl range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.3mln (exp. +2.2mln), Distillate -2.7mln (exp. -3.5mln), Gasoline +2.8mln (exp. +0.8mln) Cushing +1.7mln.
• US President Trump said they will fill up the SPR fast and will cut taxes on domestic producers of oil and gas.

Geopolitics

• Russia’s Kremlin says if the UK were to deploy 30,000 European troops in Ukraine, it would be a concern.
• Russia’s Kremlin say they have resumed talks on the prisoner exchange with the US
• Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet Thursday in Kyiv with US envoy Kellogg and said it is crucial that this discussion and the overall cooperation with the US remain constructive, according to Axios’ Ravid.
• US President Trump said he spoke with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky to end the war, while he repeated language that suggested Ukraine started the war, as well as stated that Zelensky could have come to talks if he wanted to and had done a terrible job. Furthermore, Trump said he hopes to see a ceasefire soon and separately noted a deal can be made with Russia, while he also stated that they are going to resurrect the critical mineral deal with Ukraine and that Greenland is needed from a security standpoint.
• Russian Deputy Chief of Staff said Ukraine’s losses exceeded one million military since the start of the military operation 3 years ago, according to Al Jazeera.
• Russian general staff said more than 800 square km of the Kursk region were taken back from Ukrainian forces which is about 64% of the total taken by Ukraine and Russia is advancing in all directions in the Kursk region.
• Russia conducted an attack on Kyiv on Wednesday evening in which powerful explosions were reported to shake the capital, while authorities reported air defences were in action, according to Kyiv Post.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
• 08:30: Feb. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.85m
• 08:30: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 14.3, prior 44.3
• 10:00: Jan. Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%

Fed speakers

• 09:35: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 12:05: Fed’s Musalem Speaks to Economic Club of NY
• 14:30: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Supervision and Regulation
• 17:00: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Inflation, Phillips Curve

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a divergent performance over the last 24 hours, with US assets continuing to reach fresh highs, even as the rest of the world struggled on the back of President Trump’s tariff threats and concerns about Ukraine. By the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.24%) was at another record, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.8bps) fell to 4.53%. But over in Europe it was a very different story, as the STOXX 600 (-0.91%) suffered its biggest daily decline of 2025 so far, and a bond sell-off sent 10yr yields up to a 3-week high across much of the continent. Moreover, that slump has continued in Asia overnight, as the Nikkei (-1.30%) and the Hang Seng (-0.93%) have both lost ground, and the 10yr Japanese government bond yield has hit a post-2009 high of 1.43%. So the moves mark a pretty big shift from the trend so far in 2025, as US risk assets have generally underperformed their global counterparts, particularly in Europe.

As a reminder, the latest slump for European assets came as they reacted to President Trump’s tariff threats on Tuesday night. That’s where he said he’d impose automobile tariffs “in the neighbourhood of 25%”, and that for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals “it’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over a course of a year”. And even though President Trump said that the tariff rate on autos would probably be announced on April 2, the sector quickly saw decent losses in anticipation of that. For instance, Germany’s DAX (-1.80%) experienced the biggest decline of the major European indices, with automakers like Volkswagen (-2.78%) and BMW (-2.28%) underperforming. Similarly in the US, automakers like Stellantis (-2.11%) and General Motors (-0.69%) also lost ground. And there were struggles for trade-sensitive areas more broadly, as the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (which includes companies traded in the US which do a majority of business in China) fell -0.38%.

European markets also weren’t helped by the latest developments over Ukraine, as there was a reversal in hopes for a resolution of the conflict. That followed a social media post from President Trump that was highly critical of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, referring to him as “a dictator without elections”. This followed President Zelenskiy’s comments earlier in the day that US proposals on Ukrainian minerals were “not a serious conversation”. So that backdrop led to a renewed underperformance for regional assets, including Ukraine dollar bonds and CEE currencies.

There wasn’t much respite for European fixed income either, where yields on 10yr bunds (+6.4bps), OATs (+8.4bps) and BTPs (+9.4bps) all hit a 3-week high. One factor behind that were comments from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who said in an FT interview that they should begin to discuss a “pause or halt” to rate cuts, and that inflation risks were becoming “skewed to the upside”. So even though another rate cut is still widely expected at the next meeting in two weeks’ time, there’s now more doubt among investors about whether that’ll be followed up by many more. Indeed, overnight index swaps are only pricing in 36bps of rate cuts by the meeting-after-next in April, meaning that one 25bp cut is fully priced, but then there’s only a 44% probability of a second cut by then.

On top of Schnabel’s comments, investors also had to grapple with the ongoing prospect of higher defence spending and more borrowing. We should get a better idea on this after the German election on Sunday, where there’s a lot of attention on whether the next government will relax the constitutional debt brake. Our economists have published an extensive primer on this weekend’s vote (link here), which runs over what the different outcomes would mean for the likelihood of a fiscal regime change.

Here in the UK, gilts lost ground as well after the January CPI print surprised on the upside. It showed headline inflation jumping up to +3.0% (vs +2.8% expected), which is its highest level in 10 months. Moreover, the core CPI reading was even higher, jumping up to a 9-month high of +3.7%, in line with expectations. So just like their counterparts on the continent, 10yr gilt yields (+5.3bps) hit a 3-week high of 4.61%, which came as investors dialled back the likelihood of rate cuts from the Bank of England. And more widely, there are still several global inflationary pressures in the pipeline, as Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+0.24%) moved up to a fresh two-year high yesterday.

Over in the US, Treasury yields moved lower after the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting featured a discussion about slowing the pace of QT. Specifically, it said that given “the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event”. For more on the balance sheet discussions, see our US rates strategists’ reaction here. On rates, the minutes echoed the signal that there was no hurry to adjust policy, as “many participants noted that the committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated.” But with the QT news, that meant by the close, 10yr yields were down -1.7bps to 4.53%, while 2yr yields were down -3.8bps to 4.27%. That’s continued overnight as well, with the 10yr yield down another -2.0bps to 4.51%.

US equities also saw a much better performance than in Europe, with the S&P 500 (+0.24%) advancing to a new record. The advance was led by defensive sectors, with health care (+1.26%) and consumer staples (+0.79%) leading the way, while energy stocks (+0.70%) also outperformed as WTI crude oil prices (+0.56% to $72.25/bbl) advanced for the second day in a row. However, homebuilders saw a significant decline after the latest housing data surprised on the downside. In particular, housing starts fell to an annualised pace of 1.366m in January (vs. 1.390m expected), which was a -9.8% drop from the previous month.

Overnight in Asia, markets have continued to lose ground, with all the major equity indices moving lower. In Japan, that’s come amidst mounting expectations of future rate hikes, which have pushed the 10yr yield up to a post-2009 high of 1.43%, whilst the Japanese Yen has moved up to its strongest against the dollar so far in 2025, at 150.30. The Nikkei itself is also down -1.30%, and consensus is expecting headline inflation to jump up to +4.0% in tomorrow’s CPI report, the highest in two years.

Elsewhere in the region, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down -1.14%, which follows a stronger-than-expected employment report for January out this morning. That showed employment up +44k (vs. +20k expected), so investors dialled back the likelihood of another rate cut from the RBA in response, and the Australian Dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US Dollar overnight. Elsewhere in the region, those equity declines are also evident, with the Hang Seng (-0.93%), the KOSPI (-0.84%), the CSI 300 (-0.25%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.03%) all losing ground as well. And looking forward, even US equity futures are pointing towards a slip back from their record highs, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.29%.

To the day ahead, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Conference Board’s leading index for January. Over in the Euro Area, we’ll also get the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Barr and Kugler, along with the ECB’s Makhlouf and Nagel. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include Walmart.

Walmart exceeded Bloomberg analysts’ expectations for fourth-quarter US comparable sales and adjusted earnings per share. However, its first-quarter and full-year profit guidance missed, citing ongoing pressure from its product mix and an uncertain economic environment. Shares are down nearly 8% in premarket trading as the one-year non-stop rally hits a wall. 

The discount retailer and the nation’s largest grocer—recognized by Goldman as offering the best prices for US consumers—reported a 20% surge in e-commerce sales for the holiday quarter. The results included $180.6 billion in total revenue and $7.9 billion in operating income, exceeding Wall Street expectations.

Here’s a snapshot of fourth-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Total US comparable sales ex-gas +4.9%, estimate +4.66%

• Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.6%, estimate +4.36%

• Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +6.8%, estimate +4.99%

• Adjusted EPS 66c, estimate 65c

• Change in US E-Commerce sales +20%, estimate +17.9%

• Change in Sam’s Club e-commerce sales +24%, estimate +11.7%

More from Walmart’s earning release: 

However, Walmart’s earnings guidance for the first quarter and full year fell short of expectations, citing ongoing pressure from its product mix.

The retailer forecasted full-year adjusted earnings per share between $2.50 and $2.60, below the consensus estimate of $2.77.

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.50 to $2.60, estimate $2.77 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees net sales +3% to +4%

For the first quarter forecast, Walmart expects adjusted EPS of $0.57 to $0.58, missing analysts’ forecast of $0.65.

• Sees adjusted EPS 57c to 58c, estimate 65c

• Sees sales +3% to +4%

The dismal outlook of Bentonville, Arkansas-based Walmart spooked the market. Shares are down 8% in premarket trading, set for the largest daily decline since mid-November 2023.

This selling jeopardizes the 77% over the past 12 months.

John David Rainey, the company’s chief financial officer, told Bloomberg in an interview on Thursday that the current guidance doesn’t include the potential impact of tariffs of President Trump’s broadening trade war. Walmart imports a tremendous amount of goods from China and food from Mexico. 

“We’ll work with suppliers. We’ll lean into our private brands” to keep prices low, Rainey said. 

“I would describe the consumer as steady,” Rainey said, adding that spending is far from a complete rebound. He said general merchandise sales are improving and demand from the holiday season was in line with in-house expectations. 

The multi-year inflation storm and resulting value wars among retailers have placed Walmart as the winner with its pricing power, able to offer consumers the best deals. Wealthy consumers have also traded to the retailer in the last year. 

CEO Doug McMillon wrote in a statement, “We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an ecommerce business driven by faster delivery times,” adding, “We’re gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we’re in great shape with inventory.”

Given the current guidance doesn’t include the potential impact of tariffs, the big question is whether the retailer will pass those extra costs along to the consumer and still be able to offer the best prices. 

*  *  *

Walmart’s full earnings release: 

Authored by John Klar via the Brownstone Institute,

A recent essay titled “The Real Purpose of Net Zero” by Jefferey Jaxon posited that Europe’s current war against farmers in the name of preventing climate change is ultimately designed to inflict famine. Jaxon is not speculating on globalist motives; he is warning humanity of a rapidly unfolding reality that is observable in the perverse lies against cows, denigration of European farmers as enemies of the Earth, and calls by the WHO, WEF, and UN for a plant-based diet dependent entirely on GMOs, synthetic fertilizers, and agrichemicals. 

Revelations about the evil doings of the Orwellian-monikered “United States Agency of International Development” (USAID) reveal a roadmap to totalitarian control unwittingly funded by America’s taxpaying proles. USAID’s clandestine machinations have long focused on controlling local and global food supplies as “soft colonization” by multinational chemical, agricultural, and financial corporations. European farmers revolting against climate, wildlife, and animal rights policies are harbingers of this tightening globalist noose.

The roots of the current globalist plan to “save humanity from climate change” link directly to the infamous Kissinger Report, which called to control world food supplies and agriculture as part of a globalist collaboration between nation-states and NGOs to advance US national security interests and “save the world” from human overpopulation using “fertility reduction technologies.” Kissinger’s 1974 Report was created by USAID, the CIA, and various federal agencies, including the USDA.

Fast forward to the 2003 Iraq War, justified using fear-mongering propaganda about weapons of mass destruction and neo-conservative malarky about rescuing the Iraqi people. The US-led occupation of Iraq became a rapacious profiteering smorgasbord for colonizing corporations husbanded by USAID. Iraq is heir to the birthplace of human civilization, made possible by early Mesopotamian agriculture: many of the grains, fruits, and vegetables that now feed the world were developed there. Iraq’s farmers saved back 97% of their seed stocks from their own harvests before the US invasion. Under Paul Bremer, Rule 81 (never fully implemented) sought to institute GMO cropping and patented seed varieties, as Cargill, Monsanto, and other corporations descended upon the war-ravaged nation using American tax dollars and USAID.

That playbook was more quietly implemented during the Ukraine War, once again orchestrated by USAID. Before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, Ukraine was the breadbasket of Europe, prohibiting GMO technologies and restricting land ownership to Ukrainians. Within months of US intervention, USAID assisted in the dismantling of these protections in the name of “land reforms,” free markets, financial support, improved agricultural efficiency, and rescuing the Ukrainian people. In just two years, over half of Ukraine’s farmland became the property of foreign investors. GMO seeds and drone technology were “donated” by Bayer Corporation, and companies such as GMO seed-seller Syngenta and German chemical manufacturer BASF became the dominant agricultural “stakeholders” in war-torn Ukraine. Russia may withdraw, but Ukraine’s foreign debts, soil degradation, and soft colonization will remain.

The UN, WTO, WHO, and WEF all conspire to peddle a false narrative that cows and peasant farmers are destroying the planet, and that chemical-dependent GMO monocropping, synthetic fertilizers, and patented fake meats and bug burgers must be implemented post haste (by force if necessary) to rescue humanity. The argument that pesticides and synthetic fertilizers (manufactured from natural gas, aka methane) are salvific is patently false. They are, however, highly profitable for chemical companies like Bayer, Dow, and BASF.

Jefferey Jaxon is exactly correct. The Netherlands committed to robust agricultural development following a Nazi embargo that deliberately inflicted mass famine following their collaboration with Allied Forces in Operation Market Garden. France boasts the highest cow population in all of Europe. Ireland’s culture is tightly linked to farming as part of its trauma during the (British-assisted) Irish Potato Famine. The corporate/NGO cabal now uprooting and targeting farmers in these nations and across the EU in the name of staving off climate change and preserving wildlife is a direct outcropping of Kissinger’s grand dystopian scheme launched through USAID in 1974. 

Americans watch European farmer protests from afar, largely oblivious that most all of US agriculture was absorbed by the Big Ag Borg generations ago. Currency control linked to a (political, environmental, and economic) social credit scorecard promises the fruition of Kissinger’s demonic plan: “Control the food, control the people.”

Modern humans suffer a double hubris that blinds them to the contemplation of the truth of Jaxon’s hypothesis: a cultish trust in technology, coupled with an irrational faith in their self-perceived moral superiority to past civilizations (Wendell Berry calls this “historical pride”). Yet, as long as mankind has had the capacity to harm another for personal gain, humans have devised ways to control food for power or profit. Siege warfare generally depended on starving defenders of castle walls into submission. 

Even if globalist food control proposals are well-intentioned, a monolithic, monocultured, industrial-dependent worldwide food system is a lurking humanitarian disaster. Berry observed:

In a highly centralized and industrialized food-supply system there can be no small disaster. Whether it be a production “error” or a corn blight, the disaster is not foreseen until it exists; it is not recognized until it is widespread. 

The current push to dominate global food production using industrial systems is the cornerstone of complete globalist dominion over all of humanity. The “Mark of the Beast” without which no American will buy or sell goods – including guns, bullets, or factory-grown hamburgers and cricket patties – is mere steps away. Mr. Jaxon is correct that these leaders “know these basic historical and current facts,” and that “[f]armers are becoming endangered because of government [climate] policy … and it’s being allowed to happen.” USAID has been actively seeding and watering this dystopia for decades.

Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates are as fully cognizant of this fundamental truth as Henry Kissinger was in 1974. USAID has aided all three. Having lost almost all of their small farms over the last century, Americans are well ahead of Europeans in their near-complete dependence on industrial food. 

That’s the plan. 

John Klar is an attorney, farmer, food rights activist, and author from Vermont. John is a staff writer for Liberty Nation News and Door to Freedom. His substack is Small Farm Republic.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The debate over free speech in Germany has taken a new turn following the case of Markus Roscher, a 61-year-old lawyer from Braunschweig, who was fined €3,000 for criticizing the government’s heating law.

Roscher described Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as “malicious failures” in a post on X back in 2021. He was subsequently issued a penalty notice under the controversial Paragraph 188 of the German Criminal Code, which criminalized defamation against individuals engaged in public political life.

Roscher, who has been active on X for over 14 years and is well accustomed to the legal boundaries surrounding political debate, insists that his post was within the bounds of political criticism.

“I actually know myself to be quite well within the red lines,” he told Bild. 

“You have to formulate things pointedly to be heard. The lines of freedom of opinion have slipped with the red-green government (ed. the coalition of Social Democrats and Greens).” 

He further described his hefty fine as a “scandal for freedom of expression.”

Paragraph 188, introduced in April 2021, criminalizes insults against politicians if they significantly hinder their public work. It was initially passed under a coalition government of the CDU and SPD but has been increasingly enforced under the current administration. The law has led to numerous prosecutions against individuals who have criticized government officials online.

In Roscher’s case, the penalty order claimed that his statements portrayed politicians as “corrupt, stupid, and arrogant,” constituting “abusive criticism” that allegedly impeded their political activity. 

Will memes be targeted in Germany next?

“Misinformation” expert hints that restrictions are coming.

“There is no right to be heard on social media…This is the problem of the next few years, especially when it comes to ambiguous or cryptic communication, such as memes.” pic.twitter.com/OY6kUzUsPK

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 16, 2025

Following the charge, authorities also moved to revoke his gun license, citing “unreliability.”

Furthermore, his case was forwarded to the Kassel and Braunschweig Bar Associations, raising concerns that he could face professional sanctions. 

“If I now claim the same or something similar and get another conviction exceeding 90 daily rates, I can lose my license,” Roscher warned.

“Then you get a job ban as a 61-year-old lawyer!”

Roscher believes that his support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has played a pivotal role in his prosecution. He asserts that the penalty order was politically motivated, arguing that he stood little chance in a legal battle, which led him to pay the fine without challenging it in the courts.

The scrutiny of political affiliations within Germany’s public sector was also highlighted by a leaked memo last month revealing that federal police officers who join or actively support the AfD could face disciplinary action, including dismissal. The memo cited a decree by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, explicitly stating that officers suspected of affiliation with the party could see their employment terminated.

The controversy has drawn international attention from U.S. billionaire Elon Musk and most recently from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who labeled Germany’s online speech laws this week as “Orwellian.” Responding to a CBS “60 Minutes” interview with German prosecutors, Vance argued that Germany was effectively “criminalizing speech” and urged Europeans to “reject this lunacy.”

Roscher’s case is part of a broader pattern of speech-related prosecutions in Germany. 

Other recent incidents include a Lower Saxony man, Daniel Kindl, who was fined €1,800 for allegedly insulting Green Party MP Janosch Dahmen in an online post. Kindl’s remark, which dismissed Dahmen’s concerns about an alleged attack on Robert Habeck, was deemed criminal by prosecutors.

Several other individuals have faced legal consequences for online speech. A pensioner was fined €800 for a satirical comment about Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, joking that she had hit her head too many times on a trampoline. Another was arrested for retweeting a meme that called Economy Minister Robert Habeck an “idiot,” classified as a “politically motivated right-wing crime.” A Bavarian woman was fined €6,000 for calling Baerbock a “hollow brat” but was later acquitted after a lengthy legal process. Additionally, a civil engineer was sentenced to 30 days in jail after failing to appeal a fine for calling SPD politician Manuela Schwesig a “storyteller.”

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