China Condemns US Starting ‘Vicious Cycle’ Of ‘Chaos’ In Attacking Iran
Chinese Special Envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun has said at a briefing after his shuttle-diplomacy trip that included recent stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that the US-Israeli operation against Iran must immediately cease or else a “vicious cycle” toward destabilizing the region and disrupt global trade would persist.
“Should hostilities continue to escalate and the situation deteriorate further, the entire region will be plunged into chaos. The use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle… the war should not have begun in the first place,” Zhai declared.
Washington’s latest war of choice in the Middle East has been focus of growing condemnation from Beijing, with Zhai having added: “The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it.” Or this is another way of saying whatever the US broke it must quickly fix.
Separately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated at the start of this week that continued military action risks deepening instability, and reminded Washington that its past wars in the same region “are not far behind us.”
It was only days ago that President Trump called on China and Japan to assist in getting the Hormuz Strait back open, but something which especially China has little incentive to do, as its instead content to watch the US get bogged down in a quagmire amid Tehran’s unexpected resilience under the bombs.
Iran has meanwhile held a phone call with China’s foreign minister, per Bloomberg: “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday called on all parties in the Iran war to seize every opportunity and window for peace and start peace talks as soon as possible, Xinhua reports. Wang made the appeal in a phone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.”
China has long been a powerful ally of Tehran providing with diplomatic cover, institutional support, military cooperation and an economic lifeline – especially as its major oil buyer; however, China is not expected to go further with any kind of direct military support.
There are claims that it could be, alongside Russia, providing some intelligence support though. If this is the case, there is not much Washington can do about it – also as the White House response to widespread reports of Russian intelligence-sharing has been met with some pretty mild and meager statements out of the White House.
A viral video has revealed that CVS is locking up darker makeup shades behind security devices while lighter ones sit open — because stores secure what thieves steal most, and the data backs it up.
A shopper at CVS captured the scene with lighter skin-tone foundations and concealers displayed freely, no locks and no tags, yet the darker shades were all secured behind anti-theft devices.
This isn’t “racism.” It’s basic loss prevention. Retailers don’t waste money locking up products that don’t walk out the door. They follow the numbers.
American is shopping for makeup at CVS when she notices something strange
She films the makeup isle and shows there are no security devices on the lighter skin shades, but if you go into the darker makeup shades they all have security locks
The wider retail theft crisis makes it crystal clear why. The National Retail Federation’s 2025 Impact of Retail Theft and Violence report shows shoplifting incidents jumped another 19 percent from 2023 to 2024 — on top of a staggering 93 percent surge since 2019.
Retailers reported double-digit increases in both shoplifting and merchandise theft heading into 2026, with aggressive thieves becoming the norm. Losses are projected near $48 billion this year alone.
Stores aren’t profiling customers. They’re protecting their shelves from repeat patterns of theft. And those patterns line up with hard crime statistics.
Nationwide arrest data from 2019 — the most comprehensive recent breakdown available — reveals Black Americans accounted for 26.6 percent of shoplifting arrests while making up just 13 percent of the U.S. population.
In major cities the disparity is even sharper. Vera Institute analysis of Los Angeles jail bookings from 2020-2023 found Black individuals dramatically overrepresented in retail theft charges, including organized retail crime. California statewide data shows the same overrepresentation in shoplifting arrests under $950.
The Vera Institute’s data confirms overrepresentation but frames it through a disparity lens, citing national self-report studies suggesting higher lifetime shoplifting prevalence among Whites. However, arrest/booking data itself is concrete evidence of who gets processed. Black individuals are dramatically overrepresented in retail theft bookings in LA and statewide, especially for organized retail theft charges and shoplifting under $950. This is raw booking stats, not adjusted for self-reported behavior or policing bias claims.
The left screams “systemic racism” whenever stores act on reality. But the stores don’t care about skin color — they care about what disappears. Darker shades get locked because the theft data demands it. Just like liquor, electronics, and designer goods.
There are 332 million people in the United States.
9.09% of Americans shoplift. That’s 30,178,800 people in total.
Exactly. This is what happens when businesses refuse to play the woke game and simply follow the stats. The same common-sense approach that kept shelves stocked before progressive DAs turned shoplifting into a hobby.
When theft has real consequences again, retailers won’t need to lock half the makeup aisle — because the thieves will be off the streets.
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Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running to be the next California governor, has seized more than half a million ballots from a November 2025 special election on redistricting, triggering a political and legal confrontation with state officials.
Bianco obtained the ballots with a court-approved warrant in February as part of what he described as an investigation into an alleged discrepancy between ballot logs and official vote totals.
The dispute centers on Riverside County, an inland region east of Los Angeles with roughly 2.5 million residents, where Bianco has twice been elected sheriff.
“Investigations into irregularities must happen so that the public can have full confidence,” he said in a March 22 post on X.
Bianco announced the investigation at a press conference on March 20, saying it stemmed from a complaint by a local citizens group that reviewed public records from the county Registrar of Voters.
Bianco alleged that handwritten intake logs showed 611,428 ballots were received, while 657,322 votes were reported to the state—a gap of roughly 45,896 votes. He rejected the registrar’s explanation that official machine counts showed only a minor deviation attributable to human error.
Calling the probe a “fact-finding mission,” Bianco said investigators plan to physically count ballots and compare the total with certified results.
Clash With Attorney General
County election officials and California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, dispute Bianco’s claims and authority to conduct the probe.
Bonta has characterized the seizure as unprecedented. In letters sent to the sheriff’s office over the past two months, he wrote that the action was “unacceptable” and that it “sets a dangerous precedent and will only sow distrust in our elections.”
Bianco said Bonta sought to halt the probe, arguing that law enforcement officers are not authorized or trained to conduct election recounts. He noted that representatives of the attorney general had asked him to pause the investigation until after March 6 without providing a valid reason.
A judge later ordered that counting resume under the supervision of a special master appointed by the court, Bianco said.
He also suggested urgency because ballots from the 2025 election could be destroyed in May 2026 under state retention rules, although election officials did not comment publicly on that timeline.
Bianco cited a University of California–San Diego study that found that about 40 percent of Californians distrust election systems, calling the figure alarming.
“What does sow mistrust in our system is failing to conduct an investigation—or worse, attempting to stop or interfere with a lawful investigation, to sweep it under the rug so evidence can possibly be destroyed,” he told the press conference.
Bianco is one of two prominent Republicans seeking California’s governorship in a crowded June primary that includes numerous Democrats.
US PMIs Signal Stagflation Fears Accelerating As War Started
With ‘hard’ US macro data having drifted weaker all year, consensus was expecting only a modest decline in S&P Global’s US Composite index in preliminary March data (that presumably will be affected in some part by the war and its consequences).
The consensus was right, but the picture was mixed with Manufacturing PMI surprising to the upside (52.4 vs 51.5 exp vs 51.6 prior) – highest since Oct 2025.
Services PMI, on the other hand, disappointed, falling to the lowest since April 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, that combination dragged the Composite PMI to 51.4 – the lowest in 11 months – indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with a modest 1.3% expansion signalled for the first quarter as a whole.
The survey’s price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%.
“Companies are reporting a hit to demand from the additional uncertainty and cost of living impact generated by the conflict. Travel, transport and tourism related issues are compounded by financial market jitters and affordability constraints, notably including concern over the impact of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and supply chain delays.
“Companies are meanwhile building safety stocks amid concerns that the war may lead to more protracted supply issues and price rises while trimming headcounts to reduce overheads.”
Today’s PMI print appears to confirm the overall theme of the last couple of months… ‘higher’ inflation and stagnant (or falling) growth…
Source: Bloomberg
…in other words, central bankers’ biggest nemesis: Stagflation.
As Williamson concludes, “The Fed will therefore need juggle these intensifying upside risks to inflation against the growing risk of the economy losing growth momentum, with much depending on the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices and global supply chains.”
“Awful News”: Nintendo Shares Get ‘Donkey Konged’ After Switch 2 Production Cut
Nintendo shares in Tokyo tumbled overnight after Bloomberg reported that the gaming company has slashed production of the Switch 2 handheld amid soft holiday-season demand and underwhelming U.S. sales.
*NINTENDO CUTS SWITCH 2 OUTPUT BY OVER 30% ON WEAK HOLIDAY SALES
wait, wasn’t this thing supposed to be as popular as chatgpt?
Nintendo is expected to produce 4 million Switch 2 units instead of the originally planned 6 million, with the lower production rate expected to continue into the second quarter.
Despite a record June 2025 launch and 17.37 million units sold since release, management appears disappointed that momentum and hype for the Switch 2 have faded. Japan has held up better than overseas markets, helped by a cheaper domestic-only variant, while U.S. demand has been soft.
“This hardware shortfall in its first year, during its big holiday season, is awful news,” Asymmetric Advisors analyst Amir Anvarzadeh wrote in a note.
Sources noted that the output reduction should not affect Nintendo’s ability to meet the average Wall Street analyst estimate of about 20 million Switch 2 units sold in the fiscal year through this month.
A soft U.S. market is yet another concern for Nintendo, as soaring memory chip costs squeeze margins and may force a price hike that could further crimp consumer demand.
The lack of a robust software pipeline has failed to energize consumers.
Anvarzadeh said, “Clearly, the software lineup has been poor, at least until most recently, with Pokémon showing some hope.“
The market reaction in Tokyo was negative following the BBG report, with shares closing down nearly 5%. For the year, shares are down 15.2% and nearly 39% from the peak in late summer 2025.
The big takeaway is that Nintendo is not facing a launch failure, but it is struggling to sustain excitement around the device – perhaps because of software issues and the lack of a robust gaming pipeline. Wait to see what happens to demand if Nintendo is forced into a price-hiking cycle because of the memory crunch.
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Trump’s 48-hour deadline turned into a weeklong one. Yesterday, the US president announced that he has “instructed the department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period.”
President Trump says he delayed the actions following “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, which he expects to continue throughout the week. However, reports about these talks are inconsistent at best. Iranian media reported that no such talks have taken place, to which Trump responded that he is not sure what they are talking about, adding that talks happened last night. Other media say that there has been some contact via backchannels or via third parties, but add that actual talks have not happened.
Was it all a dream? Or is the US president simply unwilling to follow through on his threats? Iran called Trump’s bluff, threatening to retaliate against energy infrastructure and desalination plants in neighbouring countries. US allies may have convinced Trump that this would create a much bigger crisis in the region. So, perhaps Trump is just buying time for an alternative form of escalation. The new deadline coincides with the expected arrival of US marines in the region.
*US MARINES SLATED TO ARRIVE IN MIDEAST FRIDAY: WSJ
Either way, Trump’s change of tone boosted risk sentiment and supported equity portfolios, particularly of those who just so happened to place large orders ahead of the presidential social media post. But markets may be dreaming too.
Further escalation has been averted for now, but don’t forget that Iran does not need to escalate. Iran continues to have full control over the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the regime is willing and able to execute pinpointed strikes, sailing through will be a prohibitively dangerous endeavour. And, the longer even an impasse lasts, the bigger the damage to energy supply chains and economies.
Moreover, while Trump is now talking about de-escalating the scenario and a potential peaceful resolution, Iran continues missile strikes on Israel – and Israel presses ahead with its military campaign. And several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council signaled willingness to join the fight against Iran. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting their energy exports, so the GCC nations may see a role for themselves to ensure that the Strait is reopened. But, more importantly, Iran’s retaliatory strikes against targets in neighbouring countries –and threats of more– may have struck a nerve.
As a result, some of the optimism waned this morning already. Energy prices are rebounding from yesterday’s lows, and equity traders are once again taking a more cautious stance than they did after Trump’s social media post yesterday.
Speaking of the economic damage caused, Eurozone consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, falling back to -16.3 from -12.3 in February. With the previous energy crisis still fresh in memory, that is no surprise. Faltering confidence has yet to affect actual consumer spending, but this does raise the risk that the war’s impact on economic activity in Europe could be visible relatively quickly.
Amidst the geopolitical risks, the EU continues to seek diversification of its economic alliances. Brussels signed a free trade agreement with Australia, following on the deals with Mercosur, India, and Indonesia. Parliament still has to approve the deal, but this should be less contested than the Mercosur agreement.
The EU-Australia deal includes a combination of tariff cuts and higher quotas for certain dairy products, beef and sheep meat. Geographical product names are protected by the deal, to the displeasure of Australian farmers, who believe that access to the European market remains impeded.
Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said that the deal should increase annual bilateral trade by about €20 billion over the next decade, but that’s arguably not the EU’s main motivation. A security and defense partnership underscores the geopolitical motive, and improved access to Australia’s critical raw materials may be an extension of this.
Iranian Missiles Pound Israel Overnight After US Claims Progress On Talks; Tehran Appoints Larijani Successor, Cuts Gas Flows To Turkey
Summary
Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.
Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.
Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he’s a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.
Iran haltsnatural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field.
* * *
Iran & Israel Trade Blows Despite US Promoting Backchannel Talks
Despite the White House touting backchannel interactions with the Iranians as basis for some kind of peaceful offramp, Israel and Iran intensified direct and regional strikes, in continued escalation of the war. The Israeli military said it had “completed a wave of extensive strikes targeting production sites” across Iran, including in Isfahan, following overnight reports that gas facilities were hit, triggering fears of potential Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy and infrastructure sites – which doesn’t appear to have happened yet.
Iran has kept up its attacks on Israel, launching at least eight overnight missile waves, including reports of cluster munitions as well as new cutting-edge warheads and projectiles. Impacts were reported across Tel Aviv, causing heavy building damage and multiple casualties, as well as with sirens sounding from the Judean Foothills to Eilat. One strike marked a shift in capability, per the NY Times: “One of the Iranian missiles that hit Tel Aviv carried a warhead of around 100 kilograms… This missile was ‘something we have not yet encountered in the war,'” said Col. Miki David.
A 100-kg warhead was used on the Iranian missile that slammed into Tel Aviv early this morning. Significant damage was caused to a residential area. pic.twitter.com/ujkuJpxUVO
More energy flows impact and blowback as Iran has halted natural gas exports to Turkey following last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field, according to regional sources and Bloomberg. Turkey sourced roughly 14% of its gas from Iran last year, per industry data, but continues to rely on Russia and Azerbaijan as primary suppliers while drawing on existing reserves. Ankara has not initially confirmed or commented.
The South Pars field, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve, sits at the core of Iran’s energy system, underpinning both domestic supply and export flows. Per Middle East Eye: “Data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority suggests that the country imports around 13 percent of its gas needs annually, roughly 7 billion cubic metres (bcm), from Iran.”
The report concludes that “A sharp drop in Iranian gas flows to Turkey following Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf has raised energy security concerns. But analysts say Ankara will likely be able to cushion the blow.
New National Security Chief (former IRGC), Ongoing Retaliation on Gulf
Iran has continued to signal resilience, downplaying threats to its grid and stating damaged infrastructure could be quickly rebuilt, even as a gas pipeline at Khorramshahr was hit apparently without disruption. Saudi Arabia said it “intercepted and destroyed” more than a dozen drones in its east, while the UAE reported intercepting five ballistic missiles and 17 drones in a single day, bringing totals since the war began to hundreds of missiles and more than 1,800 drones. Bahrain said another facility was set ablaze “as a result of Iranian aggression.”
Tehran has reportedly simultaneously struck US bases, and Gulf states including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while warning any attack on its energy network will trigger region-wide blackouts. Northern Iraq has continued to see drone threats. “The entire region will go dark” – Iranian leadership has threatened. Meanwhile, Iran has reshuffled its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani, underscoring wartime consolidation at the top. Zolghadr is a former Revolutionary Guards commander.
Lebanon has declared the Iranian ambassador persona non grata and ordered him to leave the country by Sunday, after an Iranian ballistic missile fell on Lebanese territory. This appears also a way to pressure Hezbollah, given the Lebanese state has long wanted the Tehran-linked group to lay down is arms so war doesn’t engulf the whole country.
Both Pakistan and Qatar have stepped up mediation efforts, with chatter that Islamabad could play host to future Iranian and US talks. Despite the rumors of ongoing backchannel communications, and President Trump himself insisting Sunday into Monday this is happening, there’s as yet no clear evidence that Tehran and Washington are actually dialoguing. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has told Al Jazeera that Islamabad is ready to host talks between the US and Iran: “If the parties desire, Islamabad is always willing to host talks,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said. Andrabi’s comment came a day after Trump put on hold, for a period five days, his threat to bomb Iranian power plants.
WSJ meanwhile writes, “Foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan gathered before dawn Thursday in Riyadh for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to the war in Iran.” The report continues, “But there was one big problem, according to Arab officials involved in the discussions: finding a counterpart in Iran to negotiate with. Earlier that week, Israel killed Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, who had been considered a viable partner who could engage with the West.”
USAF B-52s began to carry out Iran strike missions yesterday using 2,000 pound JDAM guided bombs.
And Bloomberg’s assessment: “Fighting between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran raged unabated, even as President Donald Trump claimed talks are under way to end the conflict.” The report then notes no observable cooling or offramp in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire:
Iran carried out overnight missile and drone attacks on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Eilat and Dimona, as well as on US bases in the Middle East. Israel launched a wave of strikes in western and central Iran, including Tehran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying the campaign would continue “at full intensity.”
Israel is Cool on Prospect of a Deal
Reports out of regional and Israeli media claim Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quietly signaled to US envoy Steve Witkoff that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiations, while Iranian officials said they have received US proposals via intermediaries and are reviewing them. However, Tehran keeps threatening and delivering more ‘retaliatory’ action, perceiving that it has the long-term strategic leverage given the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Trump seeming to issue forth dictates on a back foot.
Israeli officials have by and large dismissed the prospects of a deal, warning the chances of agreement are “very small” and stressing that US force deployments and joint operational planning remain unchanged.
More Regional Spillover: Caspian & Lebanon
The Kremlin has newly warned that any expansion into the Caspian Sea would be viewed “extremely negatively” after Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets there. Meanwhile, a parallel ground war in Lebanon is accelerating. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled a long-term buffer zone and mass displacement, stating, “Hundreds of thousands… will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed.”
Video purports to show large Israeli strike on Southern Lebanon overnight – an apparent hit on a gas station:
Israel has already destroyed key infrastructure, with Katz confirming, “All five bridges over the Litani… have been blown up,” as forces move to control the area. There are over 1,000 dead and more than a million displaced in Lebanon, with much of Israel’s north also still under emergency evacuation orders, given Hezbollah rocket fire there. At least two Lebanese died in the last day due to Israeli strikes Bshamoun.
Tax alpha — the practice of improving investment returns by reducing taxes — has become one of the fastest-growing strategies on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.
Rather than focusing only on beating the market, many investment firms now design portfolios to minimize taxes, often producing higher after-tax returns even if pre-tax performance is similar to traditional strategies.
After years of rising markets, many wealthy Americans hold large unrealized gains in stocks and funds. To address the resulting tax burden, asset managers have developed a wide ecosystem of tax-optimization techniques. More than $1 trillion is now invested in strategies built around tax efficiency, ranging from simple ETF structures to complex hedge fund portfolios.
Some of the simplest approaches involve structuring funds to limit taxable events. Certain exchange-traded funds minimize distributions by carefully timing stock sales, reducing investors’ annual tax bills. At the other end of the spectrum are more complex strategies that deliberately generate losses or deductible expenses that can offset gains — and sometimes even ordinary income.
One of the fastest-growing segments is tax-aware long-short investing. These portfolios simultaneously hold long and short positions in stocks, seeking both overall market returns and realized losses that investors can use to offset capital gains elsewhere. Estimates suggest more than $100 billion is invested in these strategies.
Technology and new financial startups have also made tax optimization more accessible. Strategies once limited to ultra-wealthy investors with millions of dollars are increasingly available to clients with much smaller portfolios, thanks to automation and lower costs.
Bloomberg writes that large asset managers have joined the trend as well. Firms such as BlackRock and Vanguard have expanded offerings in separately managed accounts and direct indexing. Instead of buying a fund that tracks an index, direct indexing allows investors to own the individual stocks themselves, making it easier to sell losing positions and offset gains elsewhere in the portfolio. Direct indexing alone has grown to more than $1 trillion in assets.
Hedge funds are also adapting their strategies to focus on after-tax returns. Quantitative firms including AQR Capital Management and Man Group have introduced tax-aware versions of their portfolios that actively manage gains and losses to improve clients’ tax outcomes.
The growth of tax-alpha strategies has attracted criticism from policymakers and tax experts. Because every dollar saved by investors reduces government revenue, critics argue the trend widens inequality by giving wealthy investors sophisticated tools to lower their tax bills. Many of the strategies rely on provisions in decades-old tax laws that were written long before the speed and complexity of modern financial markets.
Some of these techniques — such as exchange funds and certain corporate restructuring transactions used to move appreciated assets into ETFs without triggering taxes — are beginning to draw scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. However, meaningful legislative action appears unlikely in the near term.
Despite the criticism, demand continues to rise. Advisors argue that after-tax performance often matters far more than headline investment returns, especially for investors facing high capital-gains taxes. Deferring taxes allows more money to remain invested and compound over time.
Many tax-alpha strategies rely on deferral rather than permanent avoidance. Investors may still owe taxes when they eventually sell assets. But if those taxes can be postponed for years — or even decades — the additional compounding can significantly increase long-term wealth.
In some cases, taxes may never be realized at all. Under current U.S. law, inherited assets receive a “step-up in basis,” meaning unrealized gains can effectively disappear when wealth passes to heirs. This possibility makes long-term tax deferral one of the most powerful forms of tax alpha.
Amazon Data Centers “Disrupted” Across Bahrain After Drone Activity
Brent crude futures are back in triple-digit territory as fighting in the Middle East continued overnight, even as President Trump claimed that talks are underway with Iran to resolve the conflict, which has now entered its fourth week.
Overnight, the Amazon Web Services in the Bahrain region was severely “disrupted,” according to Reuters, citing an Amazon spokesperson, following drone activity in the area. The spokesperson would not confirm whether Iranian drones struck any data centers.
“As this situation evolves and, as we have advised before, we request those with workloads in the affected regions continue to migrate to other locations,” Amazon wrote in a statement.
Bahrain News Agency reported on Monday that its armed forces had intercepted and destroyed 147 Iranian ballistic missiles and 282 drones since the start of the conflict.
Amazon’s cloud computing unit is critical for Bahrain’s digital infrastructure and is embedded in public-sector cloud operations.
This disruption to AWS data centers in the Gulf is the second instance in the US-Iran conflict of IRGC forces targeting data centers with drones in early March.
“The targeting of Amazon and Microsoft in these operations has dealt a serious blow to the enemy’s technological and information infrastructure,” Iranian news outlet Fars News Agency said in a Telegram post, as quoted by the Financial Times earlier this month.
We warned, one month before two AWS data centers in the UAE were hit by IRGC drones, that Wall Street analysts had completely missed the fact that, with trillions of dollars being deployed over the next several years worldwide on data center buildouts, one major security gap had emerged: the urgent need for counter-UAS systems.
We know exactly why Wall Street analysts completely missed this security gap: they were too weirdly fixated on a non-existent climate crisis and could not properly identify the most immediate threat. These Ivy League-educated analysts simply had the wrong framework to operate on.
Since the US-Iran conflict began, it has confirmed that civilian infrastructure will not be spared (and in fact increasingly targeted over explicit military assets), and this is a wake-up call for data-center builders worldwide. Time to deploy counter-UAS systems.
The International Energy Agency in Paris has released a new and urgent document that it wishes all nations with energy struggles to adopt.
Many are doing that now.
The website even maintains a spreadsheet updated daily to celebrate the countries that are following its plan for controlling energy use.
Before explaining why none of this will work, let’s look at what they are suggesting.
Seeming out of nowhere, the head of the IEA, Dr. Fatih Birol, is being quoted in the high-end press as the world’s expert.
His Wikipedia page says that he is from Turkey but works closely with China on the “energy transition.”
Indeed, he has been a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering since 2013.
Inspired by the manner in which governments were able to control communication and people during the COVID crisis, the IEA advises the following:
1. Work from home where possible. You read that right: we are back to languishing at home and consuming entertainment through laptops. Some governments (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines) have already adopted this policy loosely, with new measures such as four-day work weeks. IEA comments: “Displaces oil use from commuting, particularly where jobs are suitable for remote work.”
2. Reduce highway speed limits by at least 10 km/h. That means lowering all speed limits by 6-7 miles per hour, which is really nothing more than a method to create an annoyance. The IEA says “lower speeds reduce fuel use for passenger cars, vans and trucks,” but is that even true? Not always. Boggy traffic creates more stop/start situations that cause more gas consumption.
3. Encourage public transport. That exhortation has been the dream of city planners for probably 50 years. Not everyone can do this of course and a mandate like that will cause many just to stay home. In this case, IEA is probably correct: “A shift from private cars to buses and trains can quickly reduce oil demand.” But not for the reason you might think. It just means more staying at home.
4. Alternate private car access to roads in large cities on different days. Now we are getting to a policy that drove an entire generation batty in the 1970s. In those days, even/odd license plates were allowed access to gas but this is more intense. Alternating access would require a massive policing effort, one that is without precedent. IEA comments: “Number-plate rotation schemes can reduce congestion and fuel-intensive driving.”
5. Increase car sharing and adopt efficient driving practices. This is easily done in the same way police enforce HOV lanes. You cannot drive alone. You must have other passengers if you are going to be out on the road. One can imagine a future in which people routinely grab a family member or friend to sit in the passenger seat for compliance purposes. IEA comments: “Higher car occupancy and eco-driving can lower fuel consumption quickly.”
6. Efficient driving for road commercial vehicles and delivery of goods. Here we get to the old essential/nonessential divide. Commercial deliveries are allowed because we have to live somehow but driving to the park for a picnic or visiting friends and families is not.
7. Divert LPG [Liquefied Petroleum Gas] use from transport. This is the planner’s vision to preserve propane for “essential needs.”
8. Avoid air travel where alternative options exist. You will surely notice that this is already happening. My recent flight bookings have doubled in price. Because of the limited government shutdown, airport security lines can be 2-3 hours. People miss flights or simply bail out and go home. This is also causing connections to fail. Events this weekend that relied on travel are a bust. IEA comments: “Reducing business flights can quickly ease pressure on jet fuel markets.”
9. Where possible, switch to other modern cooking solutions. Earlier we saw an exhortation to save propane for cooking but here we see that this is not recommended either. We are supposed to switch to electric appliances. IEA comments: “Encouraging electric cooking and other modern options can reduce reliance on LPG.”
10. Leverage flexibility with petrochemical feedstocks and implement short-term efficiency and maintenance measures. This advice is directed toward energy plants to switch from one source to another to conserve oil. This suggestion reaches deep into industrial planning and would require draconian enforcement.
There are features of this plan that surely remind you of what we went through just a few years ago for purposes of controlling infectious disease. It’s uncanny how there is a spooky overlap between those methods and these. They all require staying home, hunkering down, reducing consumption, complying with edicts, feeling afraid both of shortages and of methods of enforcement.
To be sure, you could say that the International Energy Agency has no actual power. It was founded in 1974 to monitor global energy use. It has more recently been a top advocate of net-zero energy policies associated with what is known popularly as the “Great Reset.” It is not a private organization as such but a non-government branch of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, meaning quasi-official but without the power to enforce its edicts.
In this way, the IEA bears some resemblance to the World Health Organization that is within the United Nations framework. The WHO has no enforcement power either but its pandemic declaration and recommendation to the world that everyone adopt the methods of the CCP had a major influence. It has what is called soft power—not coercion but authoritative and something that every government can use as cover for misdeeds.
Most people today have never heard of the IEA, but the same was true of the WHO just six years ago, until it became a controlling force in our lives. At one point, Internet censorship was so intense that YouTube announced that it would not permit any video that contradicted the advice of the WHO. That really happened. The same could happen here as well.
None of these measures will reduce the price of oil, gas, or anything else. What you don’t consume, someone else will. This is the whole point of rationing, to make sure that resources flow to uses deemed essential and away from those deemed unessential.
A quick note on air travel: I’ve noticed for years now that it has become ever more arduous and expensive and invasive. It’s to the point that I would rather take a 6-hour train ride than a 90-minute flight. That’s especially true now that you need to get to the airport 3-4 hours ahead of your scheduled flight to have any hope of getting a seat. At some point, it just becomes too much and people decide that it is not worth it. Thus the goal is achieved of essentially putting an end to commercial airline traffic.
To be sure, all this could end in a matter of weeks. If peace dawns in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is opened, and refining capacity grows, the price will fall. Also the Transportation Safety Authority could come back to work and the lines fall. Normalcy would return. Prices go way down and everyone chills.
How likely is that to happen? My intuition suggests that it is not likely. We seem to be headed into another lockdown situation under different excuses and with a different goal. I hope I’m wrong.
Regardless, none of these measures being pushed today are going to ameliorate the problem. The only result will be to increase the control grid over your life.
