A mother in Lower Saxony who found a disturbing video on her daughter’s phone that revealed that she was gang raped inside a church-run youth center by three teens, including a Syrian, Iranian, and Dutch national, in Gnarrenburg. However, once the story came out, it only grew darker, as it was revealed that staff, church officials and local authorities subsequently did everything possible to bury the story.
This gang rape comes after national news reports revealed that a gang rape sexual assault occurred in another youth center in Berlin, but which was covered up because the assailants were Muslims and the youth center workers did not want to increase stigmatization.
In this latest case, the woman, 43, says she first suspected something was wrong when she found a disturbing video on her daughter’s phone. It showed a girl being pinned down by a boy, filmed from behind. Confronted with the footage, her daughter was defensive, saying she had “no idea” where the footage came from and claimed, “It’s not me!”
However, within days, the truth emerged in a WhatsApp message the girl sent to her mother: “Then they all did it to me and locked the door and turned on music so you wouldn’t hear anything.”
The assault is alleged to have taken place in an upper room of the youth center in Gnarrenburg. The facility is jointly run by the local Protestant church and the Gnarrenburg community.
Three suspects have been identified — a 16-year-old Dutch national who attends the vocational school across the street and is said to have lured the girl there via Snapchat, an 18-year-old Iranian with a substantial file at the youth welfare office, and a 15-year-old Syrian who, according to the mother, later claimed he was coerced into participating.
The supervisor on duty, a part-time church deacon, later claimed he heard nothing.
When the girl showed him a pregnancy test in the days that followed, he neither contacted her parents nor the police, reportedly telling the family he was bound by a duty of confidentiality.
Experts say no such obligation exists in cases of serious criminal conduct.
During the rape, other young people were reportedly cheering outside the locked door during the attack.
The story only became impossible to contain a week later, when recordings of the incident began circulating among local young people. The girl told her mother: “This video is going around everywhere. I was also approached by two girls at the outdoor pool that something had probably happened before.”
She ultimately documented her account across seven handwritten pages for police. The Stade public prosecutor’s office has confirmed to Bild newspaper that the case is a priority, though no outcome is expected for at least two months.
The mother says she has received no support from the church, the youth center, or the local administration. The mayor of Gnarrenburg was reportedly informed that boys had allegedly been arranging such encounters at his municipality’s youth center, yet was unavailable to speak with Bild.
“We’re fighting windmills,” said the mothers.
“The congregation, the church, everyone remains dead silent, as if nothing had happened. Everyone carries on as if nothing happened. Only we as a family will never be able to forget it. It will always accompany us.”
Her decision to go public, she says, was driven by her daughter’s isolation.
“The story is all over the whole village and at the school. My daughter doesn’t go anywhere anymore. I want to give her a sign: you are not to blame.”
The mother continued, saying: “We simply want the alleged perpetrators to receive their just punishment, and most importantly, we want our daughter to be able to walk through the community with her head held high, without feeling ashamed or anything like that.”
The doors to the room where the assault allegedly took place have since been removed from their hinges. In a joint statement to Bild, the mayor and the superintendent of the Bremervörde-Zeven church district said the team had acted correctly at all times based on their knowledge at the time.
Israel, US Strike Gas Facilities In Iran’s Isfahan, Possibly Triggering Retaliation Against Gulf
Summary
Israel, US strike gas pipeline, distribution station in Iran
Trump announces “productive” talks with Iran, “postpones” military strikes for 5 days
Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said “speaking with a top person in Iran”, says will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail
Trump says Hormuz will be “jointly controlled”; Russia and Pakistan step-up as potential mediators, engage with Tehran; US officials have told CBS News that there are at least a dozen underwater mines through the vital passageway, citing US intelligence.
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel “will be pleased”
Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens “the entire region will go dark.”
IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.” Russia mediates in call with Tehran.
Market response on the day: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all well off their kneejerk extremes as skepticism grows as strikes continue – on both sides)
“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”
The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th surged above 65% initially but have faded since, back below 50%…
“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”
Overnight reports are emerging of a huge and alarming escalation which will likely dash any chance at alleged peace talks: US-Israeli strikes Monday reportedly targeted energy-related facilities in Iran’s Isfahan province and southwestern city of Khorramshahr:
Israel and the United States have delivered strikes on a pipeline and a gas distribution station in southwestern and central Iran, Fars reported.
According to the news agency, the building of a gas distribution station in Isfahan and a gas pipeline running to a power plant in Khorramshahr on the border with Iraq came under attack. No injuries have been reported. Material damage was caused to the infrastructure and adjacent residential buildings, the news agency specified.
Reportedly a natural gas administration building and a gas pressure reduction station were hit, with damage in the area also impacting residential areas. As a reminder of where things stand, via TASS:
On March 21, President Donald Trump stated that the United States would destroy several Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened to shipping within 48 hours. In response, the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff warned that, in the event of such an attack, Iran would launch retaliatory strikes against US energy and communications infrastructure in the region.
On March 23, the US leader ordered the Pentagon to postpone strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days amid what he called ongoing “constructive conversations” between Washington and Tehran. Iran denied holding talks with the United States.
Immediate reaction in oil…
All of this holds the potential for Iran to retaliate in kind against sites in the Gulf region, in potential runaway escalation.
The IRGC’s Fars News says U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian energy facilities, including the gas management building and a gas pressure reduction facility in Isfahan, and a gas pipeline feeding the Khorramshahr power plant. The footage is of tonight’s strikes in Isfahan. pic.twitter.com/11sbxkVBQE
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 24, 2026
Trump Doubles Down, Insists There Have Been Talks, Amid Iranian Denials
In his latest comments to the press, President Trump reiterates the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, had very good discussions with Iran, and that’s why energy strikes were postponed temporarily. He described that this time, Iran means business, they want to settle, and Trump stresses “we will get it done I hope.” Meanwhile speculation and theories of secretive backchannel dealing abound.
Below is a note and astute observation from Rich Privorotsky, Goldman’s EU head of Equity Execution:
Escalate to De-Escalate?: Trump’s behavior over the past 72 hours follows a familiar pattern. Friday he floats “winding down”… Saturday he escalates to an extreme ultimatum. Signal willingness to exit, then maximize leverage to extract a concession he can frame as a win. Same playbook as North Korea 2017–18, Soleimani 2020, tariffs with China… escalate then create deadline then offer off ramp. Issue is… this time may be harder. Iran likely sees the pattern and won’t offer an easy concession. A decentralized IRGC makes negotiation structurally difficult. And the West/Gulf won’t accept any equilibrium where Iran has de facto control over Hormuz transit.
US troop status update:
There are indications, based on plane spotters, that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division—likely the alert brigade—have arrived in the Middle East via cargo flights from Fort Bragg and likely Fort Campbell.
Iran Confirms No Talks With US, “Fake News”; IRGC Launches More Missiles on Israel
Finally a little ‘clarity’ from a top Iranian state source: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says they had no talks with the US, via IRNA. “In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating US request to talks to end the war but Iran did not respond,” the statement says.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson affirms that the stance on Strait of Hormuz, conditions to end war did not change, according to more from IRNA. Importantly, state media further says the US tried to negotiate with Iran via intermediaries. Previously, Iranian officials have made clear they want to impose more costs on their attackers. Huge direct confirmation of Iran’s rejection/denial:
2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 23, 2026
The IRGC further announced fresh missile launches on Israel, also as FT reports on further mediation efforts: Pakistan steps up as go-between in Trump’s Iran crisis.
The question of whether Israel actually wants de-escalation remains a big one, as Israel has continued attacking the Islamic Republic even as Trump touts alleged indirect dialogue. This was Trump earlier in the day… some surprising words to say the least:
Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?”
President Trump Refutes Iran’s Denial of Talks, says Hormuz Will Be “Jointly Controlled”
Trump says US, Iran talks have “major points of agreement”.
President Trump responded to reporters questions about Iran’s denial of talks:
TRUMP: IRAN NEEDS BETTER PUBLIC RELATIONS PEOPLE
TRUMP: IRAN WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL, WE WOULD LIKE A DEAL TOO
TRUMP: WE’LL GET TOGETHER WITH IRAN PROBABLY BY PHONE
TRUMP: SPEAKING WITH A TOP PERSON IN IRAN
TRUMP: PERSON WE’RE SPEAKING WITH IS NOT IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
Trump then laid out what Washington wants:
TRUMP: WE WANT NO ENRICHMENT, WE ALSO WANT THE ENRICHED URANIUM
TRUMP: WE WANT TO SEE NO NUCLEAR BOMB OR WEAPON FOR IRAN
On Hormuz:
*TRUMP: HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN VERY SOON `IF IT WORKS’
*TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE JOINTLY CONTROLLED
On oil prices:
*TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL ‘DROP LIKE A ROCK’ WHEN DEAL IS DONE
On funding:
TRUMP: THE $200B MILITARY FUNDING WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, according to an Israeli official, who asked Bloomberg not to be identified discussing private matters.
Israel was told about Trump’s social media post ahead of time, two officials said.
*TRUMP: WE JUST SPOKE WITH ISRAEL A LITTLE WHILE AGO
*TRUMP: ISRAEL WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON IRAN
President Trump, asked about Iranian media denying talks with the US, says the most recent set of negotiations took place last night, Fox Business reports.
He said talks involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts, adding a deal with Iran could be reached in five days or sooner. CBS: “Amid Trump administration demands for Tehran to keep the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials have told CBS News that there are at least a dozen underwater mines through the vital passageway, according to current American intelligence assessments.”
Russia as Potential Mediator
As we reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shortly after Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were dialoguing. Russia moved to position itself as a mediator. Its Foreign Ministry said Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the conflict with Iran is “not of their making” and is already causing major economic disruption. “Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making,” he said. And the UK too has weighed in on Trump’s messaging, with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding: “Any reports of productive talks are welcome.” The statement indicated: “We’ve always said that swift resolution to the war is in global interests and the Strait of Hormuz specifically needs to be reopened.”
Iran State Media Casts Trump As In Retreat, Who Warns US Can Just ‘Keep Bombing’
President Trump in Monday remarks to the press stated that the United States will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry made clear there is “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington despite President Trump’s early Monday assertion that weekend discussions were productive.
“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington,” the ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB. It added that Trump’s statements were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans,” which could include occupying or blockading Iran’s critical Kharg Island.
Weekend major air strikes targeted the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran:
Multiple major air strikes target the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran today. The impact of the blast wave is visible at the end.
The Dezful air base is home to Iran’s F-5 fighter jets.
To recount, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks on the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East and that he would delay attacks on Iranian power plants by five days after “productive conversations” with Tehran. Iranian media has cast Trump’s remarks as a retreat: “Fearing a response from Iran, Trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum,” IRIB said.
Iranian media outlets to issue some kind of response/ reaction so far are Fars News, and Tasnim – both considered to have close ties with the IRGC.
Irna, or IRIB, the more traditional govt-linked outfits, yet to issue any comment.
Amid the headline pingpong, Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains…
So who’s lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines?
“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.
“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”
The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response.
“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities,” said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.
“Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”
There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance.
Israeli Strikes A Mere Hour After Trump Announced US Halt
Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Iran about an hour after Trump announced the halt to US attacks. “The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran,” the Israeli Air Force said on X.
Various reports suggest that Trump waving an olive branch will not be received well by Israeli leadership. “For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli cabinet, anything but escalation and complete regime change in Iran is a catastrophe, says Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, referring to how Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran was received in Israel,” Al Jazeera writes.
“Trump going back to negotiations means that Israel will not be able to remove the Iranian nuclear threat, which has become Netanyahu’s flag, his claim to fame,” Eldar told the outlet.
There continues to be evidence of severe damage and destruction in Tehran and across the Islamic Republic:
Just ahead of Trump’s decision to delay further strikes, Tehran threatened to expand attacks on US and regional infrastructure. The weekend saw Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari warn Iran would target all US -used fuel, energy, technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region if its own energy sites were hit.
Trump “Postpones” Military Strikes On Iran for 5 Days, Citing “Productive” Talks
Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…
The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war.
Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US.
There has been no comment from Israeli officials.
The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…
…though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)…
TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?
Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts…
An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.
On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Defense Council threatened to deploy “various types of naval mines” across the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, according to Tasnim. The warning followed Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after which he said the US would strike all Iranian power plants.
“The entire Persian Gulf will be in conditions similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long period of time,” the council said, according to Tasnim. It added that “non-hostile countries” could transit the strait “through direct coordination with Iran.”
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: “In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark.” Here’s the target list it shared:
Saudi Arabia
The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)
Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure
United Arab Emirates
Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)
Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)
Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project
Qatar
Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)
Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)
Kuwait
Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant
Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)
Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex
State media published this graphic:
Hormuz Crisis Could Surpass Oil Shocks of 1970s
…if there’s no off-ramp soon – that’s according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Here’s what he said according to the Associated Press:
The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.
“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.
The crisis in the Middle East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from about 100 vessels a week before the war to seven, according to Kpler. Iran has attacked multiple commercial vessels since the US-Israeli assault began, causing fires, damage, and at least one death, and has laid mines in the waterway.
War in Lebanon Expands
On the Lebanon front, Israel said a civilian was killed near the Lebanese border died from friendly fire, not a Hezbollah attack. The Israeli military said initial findings showed Ofer Moskowitz was killed by artillery fire intended to support troops in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah had earlier claimed a rocket strike killed the civilian in the Israeli town of Misgav Am; however, the Israeli military says it is investigating whether its own forces were responsible.
Israel’s defense minister has meanwhile ordered expanded destruction of bridges and homes in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about a deeper, entrenched buffer zone. Over one million people have fled their homes and over 1,000 have been killed, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials warned residents across large parts of southern Lebanon to evacuate or face danger as a ground operation continues, which they say is aimed at protecting northern Israeli communities.
Pre-Trump Overnight News
And while we wait, let’s take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).
Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending. On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.
Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.
In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.
Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.
Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of …
Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran’s semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG
The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico
Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT
The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.
Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS
A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG
LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG
Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ
Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ
ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman
Oil Jumps After Explosion And Massive Fire At One Of The Largest US Oil Refineries
An explosion and large plumes of smoke at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur prompted officials to order west-side residents to shelter in place according to 12 News Now.
🚨 Jefferson Co. Commissioner says “I’m asking people to stay tuned because if this chemical is deemed to be toxic or carcinogenic … then I guarantee we’re going to order to evacuate.” pic.twitter.com/MVpOu5b28M
A fire broke out at a diesel hydrotreater, with the unit suffering severe damage, according to people familiar with the incident. The fire was near the plant’s fluid catalytic cracker, and part of the refinery has been shut down, according to the people, who said a decision hasn’t yet been made whether to shut the entire plant.
A few minor injuries were reported, according to people familiar. A Valero spokesperson said all personnel have been accounted for. Local officials have shut two nearby state highways as a precaution, the spokesperson said.
Footage reportedly shows the effect of a large explosion at the Valero oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas that resulted in a massive fire. Residents are currently advised by emergency services to shelter in place. pic.twitter.com/50qaqsuVec
Witnesses across the Mid-County area reported hearing a loud boom that rattled car windows. A resident near the scene told a 12News crew the area smelled of rotten eggs, an indication of sulfur in the air.
Antonio Mitchell with the Port Arthur Fire Department confirmed an incident at the Valero facility, though details remained limited. “The type of incident is unknown at this time,” Mitchell said not long after the explosion as his crews headed to the scene.
Following reports of an explosion, a massive fire can be seen at the Valero oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. pic.twitter.com/I3UYBTS41A
Interim Port Arthur Fire Chief Louie Havens said two engines were initially sent to the refinery and a hazmat team is being deployed to Valero. Havens also confirmed there have been no injuries or deaths reported. Beaumont Fire Department and the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office are assisting the Port Arthur Fire Department.
The City of Nederland issued a statement through the Southeast Texas Alerting Network saying its police and fire departments are actively patrolling and conducting air monitoring on the south side of the city.
“At this time, there is no impact to the City of Nederland,” officials said, adding that updates would be provided if conditions change.
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said emergency response coordinators and regional staff have been deployed with handheld and mobile air monitoring assets in response to the Valero fire in Port Arthur and are coordinating through incident command. Officials said updates will be shared as they become available.
The Texas Department of Transportation urged drivers to avoid the area, asking motorists to steer clear of SH 87 and SH 82 near the refinery.
The refinery can process 435,000 barrels of heavy sour crude a day, making it one of the top 10 largest refineries in the US.
News of the fire, coupled with fresh reports of hostilities in Iran, sent WTI crude – which earlier in the day dropped as low as $85 – back over $90 and rising.
Which in turn is weighing on equity futures, erasing much of the earlier gains.
* * * If you haven’t already, start stocking up on this stuff
Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad had a plan to ignite public protests that would lead to the collapse of Iran’s government, the New York Times has reported.
David Barnea, Mossad’s chief, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu days before the US and Israel began their war on Iran and told him that the agency would be able to galvanize Iranian opposition in order to bring about regime change.
Barnea, according to the report, which cites interviews with US and Israeli officials, also presented this proposal to senior US officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.
The plan was then taken up by Netanyahu and Trump, despite doubts among some senior American officials and Israeli military intelligence. Mossad’s promises were, according to US and Israeli officials, used by Netanyahu to convince the US president that collapsing the Iranian government was possible.
In the plan’s conception, the war would begin with the killing of Iranian leaders, followed by a “series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change.” This could, Mossad believed, lead to a mass uprising that would bring about victory for Israel and the US.
As the war began, Trump’s public messaging reflected this. In an eight-minute video statement he said:
“Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
But talk of regime change quickly evaporated. Less than two weeks in, US senators came out of a briefing on the war to say that overthrowing the Islamic Republic was not one of its goals, and that in fact there was “no plan” at all for the military operation.
Netanyahu frustrated with Mossad
The CIA’s own assessment of the situation is that the Iranian administration will not be overthrown. In fact, the US intelligence agency had said that if Iran’s leaders were killed, a “more radical” leadership would take power.
Israeli intelligence sees Iran’s government as weakened but intact. “The belief that Israel and the United States could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East,” the NYT report said.
While Netanyahu has remained bullish about the prospect of putting troops on the ground in Iran, he is said to be frustrated that Mossad’s promises to bring about an uprising have not come to fruition.
According to the NYT, Netanyahu said in a security meeting days after the war began that Trump could end the war at any moment if Mossad’s operations did not bear fruit.
Allegations that the White House went in the direction of ‘optimistic’ Israeli assessments over US intelligence consensus:
Another example of that high-value intelligence we get from Israel, I guess. The CIA doubted that a war would quickly lead to a democratic uprising against the Iranian regime. But Israel’s Mossad was optimistic it could spur regime change. Trump listened to the Israelis. https://t.co/knLLHpzSyw
Mossad’s promises were, according to the report, disputed by many senior US officials and analysts at the Israeli army’s intelligence agency, Aman.
US military leaders told Trump that Iranians would not take to the streets while bombs were falling, while intelligence officials assessed that the chances of a mass uprising were low.
Choosing when to collect Social Security retirement benefits is a consequential decision. It will affect your finances for the rest of your life. You’ll be able to claim reduced retirement benefits as early as 62.
In fact, in 2022, nearly 30 percent of new Social Security beneficiaries began receiving benefits at age 62, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. The full retirement age (FRA) for those born in 1960 or later is 67, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). Although you can claim the benefits early, there are drawbacks. And one of them relates to any continued employment.
Social Security Earnings Test
You can receive Social Security or survivors’ benefits and work at the same time. But the Social Security earnings test will be applied to you.
According to the SSA, if you start collecting retirement benefits before FRA and earn more than $24,480 in 2026, you will be penalized. The SSA deducts $1 from your benefits for every $2 you earn above $24,480.
If you reach FRA in 2026, the SSA deducts $1 from your benefits for every $3 you earn above $65,160 until the month you reach FRA.
For example, you file for benefits in January 2026, and your payment is $600 monthly, or $7,200 annually. But during 2026, you plan to work and earn $26,080. You will be $1,600 above the limit. The SSA would withhold $800 of your Social Security benefits.
How Do You Pay the Penalty?
If you file for Social Security benefits at 62 in January 2026, and your benefit is $600 a month, or $7,200 per year. During 2026, you plan to work and earn $26,080, which is $1,600 above the limit. The SSA would withhold $800 of your Social Security benefits ($1 for every $2 you earned over the limit).
To do this, they would withhold all $600 benefits in January and all $600 benefits in February to take the $800. Keep in mind that the SSA does not make partial payments. So, they would take all the February benefits. In other words, you would go two months without benefits. But you would receive all your $600 benefit in March.
The SSA would pay you the additional $400 they took from February 2026 back to you in January 2027.
The SSA doesn’t actually know your earnings in advance. They rely on three items: your estimate when you apply; your employer’s wage reports; and your tax return later.
Often, they don’t know you’ve gone over the maximum until the following year. At that point, they would withhold the overage.
First-Year Rule Saves Money
Sometimes, people younger than FRA begin receiving benefits in the middle of the year. At that point, they may have already exceeded the yearly limit.
According to the SSA, under the first-year rule, you can receive full Social Security benefits for any whole month you are retired, and earnings are below the monthly limit. In other words, the limit starts the month you start receiving benefits, not for the prior months when you may have gone over the limit.
So, if you started receiving benefits in July 2026, you must be under the limit from July through December 2026. But you don’t have to be below the limit from January 2026 through June 2026.
This rule allows you to work earlier in the year, retire midyear, and still collect Social Security immediately without losing benefits earned before you started collecting them.
Social Security Refunds Penalties at FRA
Although some of your benefits may be reduced if you work, they will be returned later. According to the SSA, if some of your benefits are withheld because of your earnings, your monthly benefit will increase starting at FRA. It will take into account those months when benefits were withheld.
Earnings Drawback to Collecting Social Security Before FRA
Whether or not you’re working, if you start drawing your Social Security benefits before FRA, you’ll receive less money.
If you start receiving benefits early, your benefits will be reduced by a small percentage for each month before your FRA. According to the SSA, those born in 1960 or later will have their benefits reduced by 30 percent if they retire at 62.
So, if your FRA benefit is $1,000, because of the reduction, you’ll receive $700 if you start benefits at age 62. A spouse’s benefit is reduced by 35 percent, which brings it down to $325, according to the SSA.
How to Contact the Social Security Association
The best and most convenient way to contact the SSA is to visit www.ssa.gov. You’ll be able to use their services and receive information. If you live outside the United States, visit www.ssa.gov/foreign to access online services.
If you don’t have internet access, call 1-800-772-1213 or the TTY number, 1-800-325-0778 if you’re deaf or hard of hearing. They recommend calling between Wednesday and Friday and later in the month when it’s less busy.
Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody’s
Amid the ongoing fracturing of the private credit industry, which after enjoying years of stable, levered growth (and when it ran out of institutional greater fools, it aimed lower, toward HNWs and retail) finally hit a brick wall thanks to the Claude-inspired SaaSpocalypse, which has led to a historic surge in redemption requests across the biggest (and certainly smallest) names in the industry, last week we said that debt funds managed by powerhouse firms including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley and Monroe Capital have agreed to honor only 70% of the $10.1bn of redemption requests they have faced, according to FT calculations, as fund after fund is gating investors.
We also said that the number of both redemptions and gates is expected to spike over the coming weeks, as funds managed by Ares Management, Apollo Global, Blue Owl, Oaktree and Goldman Sachs tally up how many of their investors are heading for the exits, as discussed here.
According to the above table, Apollo’s private credit fund, APODS, was supposed to report its Q1 outflow in early May. However, the surge in redemptions was so big the private equity giant decided not to wait that long, and according to Bloomberg, Apollo Global Management has joined a growing number of its peers in gating redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to be flooded by a surge in such requests.
The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions (APODS), capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%, according to a shareholder letter seen by Bloomberg, thus gating more than half of the redemption requests.
“Periods of complexity and uncertainty can create some of the most attractive investment opportunities, but only for those with the flexibility to act decisively,” the firm said, adding that “while the market has repriced risk, the fundamentals of the fund’s underlying borrowers remain strong.”
The firm expects the granted redemptions to amount to roughly $730 million of gross outflows for the first quarter, offsetting the roughly $724 million of inflows for the period. Apollo Debt Solutions has been building its reserves in the past month, doubling the size of one credit line to $1 billion and signing a new $500 million facility.
What’s worse is Apollo has effectively pre-gated next quarter’s redemption requests, saying that it intends to stick to the same cap next quarter as it balances “the interests of shareholders seeking liquidity with those who choose to remain invested,” it said in the letter, noting that challenging times can benefit investors in the long run.
With redeeming investors receiving just 45% of their capital, Apollo Debt Solutions is returning less cash to clients than some of its peers that capped withdrawals. As we reported previously, while BlackRock also capped redemptions from its $26 billion non-traded BDC at a pre-set 5% earlier this month, investors had “only” requested 9.3% of their shares. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income Fund’s pro-rated redemptions were granted at a similar rate to Apollo’s.
It seems that with every passing week, after Blue Owl started the private credit firesale a month ago, more investors are seeking to return their capital… and more are being gated.
As regular readers are aware, while private credit funds typically limit redemptions to 5% of outstanding shares, the recent bank run redemption scramble among retail investors has tested firms’ flexibility. Some firms such as Blackstone opted to exceed the cap – and fund the shortfall out of the partners’ own pocket – in the hopes of quelling investor panic and stanching further outflows. That valiant effort failed after Blackstone’s peers such as Blackrock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley gated their own investors.
Apollo, which has been pushing for more transparency in private markets, also said Monday that Apollo Debt Solutions had returned 1% over the past three months. At the same time, its net asset value dipped by 1.2% over the same period. Last night we reported that the largest private credit fund, Blackstone’s BCRED, reported its first monthly decline since September 2022.
Meanwhile, in related news, late on Monday a private credit fund jointly run by Future Standard and KKR was the first to get junked, losing one of its investment-grade ratings, a rare occurrence in the $1.8 trillion private credit market, and one which will certainly result in higher borrowing costs for the $14 billion investment vehicle.
Moody’s Ratings lowered its assessment of FS KKR Capital Corp. to Ba1, or one level into junk, because of what it described as “continued asset quality challenges” that have hurt profitability and the value of the fund’s portfolio relative to peers, the credit grader said in a statement on Monday.
The fund’s non-accrual rate, which measures soured loans, rose to 5.5% of total investments as of the end of last year, one of the highest percentages among peers. It also expressed concern over other investments not classified as non-accrual that have have suffered significant markdowns, including a loan to software company Medallia.
The rating agency also called out FSK’s higher proportion of payment-in-kind income relative to peers, which it said is a sign of “weaker earnings quality.” PIK provisions allow borrowers to pay interest by accumulating additional debt instead of paying out cash.
That said, the ratings firm said the fund is “well positioned” from a liquidity perspective, with about $2.5 billion available after repaying a $1 billion note earlier this year.
“FSK remains well positioned despite the decision,” a spokesperson for the fund, referring to its stock-exchange ticker, said in an emailed statement. “It has a strong, well‑laddered liability structure with no 2026 unsecured maturities and limited near‑term maturities, enabling us to continue supporting our portfolio companies and navigate the current market environment.”
Obituaries on eminent Washingtonians usually omit the dreadful precedents they set that will vex Americans long after their death. Not this piece.
Former FBI director Robert Mueller died last week at the age of 81. The New York Times eulogized him as a “button-down, lockjawed, rock-ribbed exemplar of a vanishing caste.” In reality, Mueller was simply a twenty-first century version of J. Edgar Hoover, trampling the Constitution and seizing new power on any pretext.
Mueller took over the FBI one week before the 9/11 attacks and he was worse than clueless afterwards. On September 14, 2011, Mueller declared, “The fact that there were a number of individuals that happened to have received training at flight schools here is news, quite obviously. If we had understood that to be the case, we would have—perhaps one could have averted this.” Three days later, Mueller announced, “There were no warning signs that I’m aware of that would indicate this type of operation in the country.” His protestations helped the W. Bush administration railroad the Patriot Act through Congress, vastly expanding the FBI’s prerogatives to vacuum up Americans’ personal information.
Rather than arresting FBI agents who broke the law, Mueller created a new FBI Office of Integrity and Compliance. The Electronic Freedom Foundation, after winning lawsuits to garner FBI reports to a federal oversight board, concluded that the FBI may have committed “tens of thousands” of violations of federal law, regulations, or Executive Orders between 2001 and 2008.
Mueller’s biggest coup against privacy occurred with Section 215 of the Patriot Act, which entitles the FBI to demand “business records” that are “relevant” to a terrorism or espionage investigation. In 2011 testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mueller “suggested the FBI interpreted (Section 215) narrowly and used it sparingly,” the ACLU noted. But Mueller was the point man for the Bush administration’s bizarre 2006 decision (perpetuated by Barack Obama) that all Americans’ telephone records were “relevant” to terrorism investigations. Several times a year, Mueller signed orders to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, swaying it to continually renew its order compelling telephone companies to deliver all their calling records (including time, duration, and location of calls) to the National Security Agency.
On June 5, 2013, leaks from former NSA contractor Edward Snowden blew the lid off this surveillance regime. Federal judge Richard Leon slammed that records roundup as “almost Orwellian…I cannot imagine a more indiscriminate and arbitrary invasion than this systematic and high-tech collection and retention of personal data on virtually every single citizen for purposes of querying and analyzing it without prior judicial approval.”
Mueller was replaced at the FBI by James Comey. After Comey was fired in May 2017 by President Donald Trump, Comey leaked official memos with confidential information to a lawyer who delivered them to TheNew York Times. Comey’s leak triggered the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to investigate Trump. Mueller’s investigation generated endless allegations and controversies and helped Democrats capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. In April 2019, after two years of media frenzies, Mueller finally admitted he found no evidence to prosecute Trump or his campaign officials for colluding with Russia in the 2016 campaign. In July 2019, Mueller testified to Congress on his investigation and the nation was shocked to see Mueller looking mentally clueless time and again under questioning.
It remains to be seen whether the media can restore Mueller’s halo after his death. But whitewashing Mueller’s record will simply invite more FBI depredations of Americans’ rights and liberties.
Chicago Approves 19% Hotel Tax To Fund Tourism Push
The Chicago City Council has approved a plan to boost tourism marketing by raising hotel taxes. Under Ordinance 2026-0022544, the total tax rate on hotel rooms will increase from 17.5% to 19% in downtown and nearby areas, according to Fox News.
The higher rate will apply to hotels with more than 100 rooms that choose to participate.
The report says that alongside the tax increase, the council created a Tourism Improvement District (TID) to fund Choose Chicago, the city’s tourism marketing organization. Revenue will support promotional campaigns and help cover bids for major events and conventions.
Chicago is already pursuing the Democratic National Convention, which requires a $1 million bid. The city previously hosted the event in August 2024 and is competing with several other cities.
Mayor Brandon Johnson called Chicago a leading destination for tourism and large-scale events, saying the city will continue investing in growth and development. Choose Chicago CEO Kristen Reynolds described the move as a “transformative moment” that will strengthen marketing efforts and attract more visitors.
Some critics, however, argue the 19% hotel tax — among the highest in the country — could make travel to Chicago more expensive and potentially discourage tourism.
The FCC has banned the import of all new foreign-made consumer wireless routers, citing “severe national security risks”.
The decision, announced today, follows a White House-convened inter-agency review that determined these devices – primarily those manufactured overseas – pose unacceptable threats to US households, critical infrastructure, and the economy.
Major brands like TP-Link (which holds a dominant share of the U.S. market), Netgear, Google Nest, Amazon Eero, Cisco, Linksys, and Asus produce most models abroad, often in China, which controls an estimated 60% of the U.S. home router market.
Interestingly, Netgear’s stock soared (presumably as a US company that has the potential to steal market share from TP-Link)…
The FCC highlighted how malicious state and non-state actors have exploited vulnerabilities in foreign-made routers for cyberattacks on American civilians, including espionage, network disruptions, intellectual property theft, and incidents linked to groups like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon.
The ban applies only to new models manufactured outside the U.S., regardless of the company’s nationality, but does not affect routers already imported or in use.
Companies can seek exemptions through the Department of Defense or Department of Homeland Security if their products are deemed low-risk.
The move builds on prior FCC actions, such as the December 2025 ban on new foreign-made drones, and aligns with ongoing scrutiny of firms like TP-Link, which faces separate national security probes and a lawsuit from Texas over alleged deceptive marketing and data access risks.
Lawmakers, including Rep. John Moolenaar (R), chair of the House Select Committee on China, praised the order as a strong defense against Chinese cyberattacks.
“Routers are key to keeping us all connected,” he said, “and we cannot allow Chinese technology to be at the center of that.”
This policy could reshape the router market, encouraging domestic production or more secure alternatives while protecting against supply-chain vulnerabilities.
Existing devices remain unaffected, giving consumers and businesses time to adapt.
JPMorgan Reportedly Installs Muslim Foot-Washing Stations At Rockefeller Center Office
A new report says that the J.P. Morgan Wealth Management office at Rockefeller Center in New York City has installed a Muslim foot-washing station designed to facilitate ritual washing before prayer.
X user Viral News NYC explained:
Report: JPMorgan Installing Muslim Foot-Washing Stations at Rockefeller Center Office
According to a source, JPMorgan Chase is installing foot-washing stations inside bathrooms at its Rockefeller Center office.
The source stated that the installations are intended to accommodate Muslim employees who wash their feet before prayer, a practice associated with daily religious observance.
Report: JPMorgan Installing Muslim Foot Washing Stations at Rockefeller Center Office
According to a source, JPMorgan Chase is installing foot washing stations inside bathrooms at its Rockefeller Center office in Rockefeller Center.
Amy Mekelburg, founder of the RAIR Foundation USA, centered on topics such as immigration, Islam, left-wing politics, and globalism, stated on X that Muslim foot-washing stations at the JPM building in NYC come as no surprise, indicating “this isn’t random.”
“JPMorgan openly structures billions in Sharia-compliant deals: Murabaha, Sukuk Islamic bonds, liquidity products – all avoiding ‘riba’ interest per Islamic law,” Mekelburg said.
She noted, “While everyday Americans get stuck with interest-based banking, the elite side bends to Sharia rules, funnels capital into Islamic finance, and now embeds wudu rituals in corporate bathrooms.”
Sharia Finance: The Transformation of Global Banking
Of course, JPMorgan Chase is NOW installing Muslim foot-washing stations (wudu facilities) in bathrooms at their Rockefeller Center NYC office – so employees can ritually wash feet 5x daily before prayer without using sinks… https://t.co/HWiYdcRhXK
“This is textbook Islamization: Western banks profit from Sharia, then accommodate Islamic practices in workplaces to keep Muslim talent/clients happy and normalize it for everyone else,” Mekelburg warned.
Socialist NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani would certaintly approve.
