Futures are higher led by Tech as NVDA earnings boost the tape. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher while Nasdaq futures jump 1.1% led by NVDA which is +7.4% in pre-market trading following an unprecedented forecast of 70% revenue growth in 2028, which is boosting Semis (+3%), incl MRVL +5.2% into their print tonight. NVDA helped the market climb a significant wall of worry and is not poised to resume it march higher. Memory is +3.6%, Software is +2.3%, Korea +2.1%, and Low/Unprofitable Tech +1.2% points to a broad-based Tech rally. Yet Only 2 of 7 Mag7 names are higher, NVDA and TSLA. Outside of Tech, most sectors are trading lower ex-Industrials / Utils which are benefitting from a reboot of the AI trade. Our Retail flows remain materially off their highs with behavior shifting from ETFs to single stocks; Mag7 / NVDA most bought, MRNA most sold with gold seeing strong inflows. Bond yields are +1-2bp with USD flat. Cmdtys are mostly lower dragged by Energy and Base Metals; Precious are mixed with gold flat and silver higher. Today’s macro data calendar includes July advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless claims and July inventories (8:30 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on CBNC at 10 a.m. and Fox Business at 1 p.m.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly lower even as Nvidia jumps 7.2% after the leader in AI chips gave an outlook for revenue growth that was stronger than expected. Others are mostly in the red: Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -1.1%, Meta Platforms -0.3%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.4%. 

• AI infrastructure stocks broadly gain after Nvidia’s outlook. Intel (INTC) 2%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +1%.
• Software companies are rising following robust results from a number of notable names in the sector.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 9% after the security software company raised its full-year forecast on key metrics.
• Dollar General (DG) gains 13% after the retailer’s comparable sales for the second quarter topped expectations and management boosted guidance for the year. The stock had been down 7.5% this year through Wednesday’s close.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) falls 4% as the retailer’s guidance for the third quarter and full year proves underwhelming after the stock’s 38% advance since its 1Q results on May 28. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.1% for the same period.
• Everpure (P) rises 2% after the computer storage company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• Nutanix (NTNX) climbs 5% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations and it gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
• Okta (OKTA) gains 17% after the software company boosted its full-year forecast on key metrics, including adjusted earnings and revenue.
• Salesforce (CRM) is up 10% after the software company raised its full-year forecast and announced an expanded partnership with Anthropic.
• Wendy’s (WEN) plunges 14% after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has no plans to make a bid at this time to take the fast-food chain private.

In other corporate news, a $31 billion venture between Kioxia Holdings Corp. and Sandisk Corp. to ratchet up flash memory production added to the buoyant tone in technology stocks. Security Benefit Life Insurance will restructure its $14 billion stockpile of collateral loans after such assets drew scrutiny from regulators. Caesars Entertainment turned down a bid from investor Carl Icahn to take the company private and instead chose a lower offer from billionaire Tilman Fertitta because it was more comfortable with other terms of his proposal. The owners of the 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System are seeking to renew its federal land authorization more than seven years before it expires, a move that could capitalize on President Trump’s enthusiasm for US oil production.

Nvidia’s 7% pre-market gain following its solid revenue outlook is propelling the Nasdaq future higher by 1.1%, even as the index pulled back from highs after Politico reported the White House is mulling a fresh round of tariffs on chips. Nvidia’s upbeat outlook offered relief to investors concerned about a bubble in the AI economy as CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its artificial-intelligence accelerators continues to expand. 

Nvidia’s surprising stab at providing longer-term guidance (70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, versus consensus around 45%) was taken positively, especially in the context of the number reflecting constrained supply dynamics (imagine how high the forecast could have been without the bottlenecks). The conference call pushed back on the circular deal narrative, while Huang later said “investing in these companies is a once in a generation opportunity. I think the only regret that I have is that I didn’t invest more and sooner.”

Nvidia’s results showed that the AI cycle is primarily constrained by physical bottlenecks such as memory and power, rather than a shortage of end demand, said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “It effectively pushes the cyclical question further out and, crucially, gives investors permission to extend the earnings-growth runway not just for Nvidia, but across the second- and third-order beneficiaries of the AI buildout,” she said.

The VIX Index is below 15 and VVIX below 86, while even one-year Nvidia implied volatility appears cheap – despite its CDS trading at highs and as Chinese competition builds. The risk of AI headline fatigue is setting in. “Given Jensen’s constant visibility this quarter, the myriad of circular deal announcements, and just the mental exhaustion from AI headlines,” this week’s main event remains that of Warsh and the Fed at Jackson Hole, according to Dave Lutz at Jonestrading.

The company is “taking a more active role in removing the capital and infrastructure bottlenecks that could constrain its own growth,” notes Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. More broadly, she adds that “the AI cycle is still being governed primarily by physical constraints such as memory, packaging, power and data-centre capacity, rather than by any shortage of end demand.”

Nvidia’s performance reflects how it has become the funding trade for AI picks and shovels, even as it acts as the industry’s bank. GAM’s head of global equities Paul Markham notes “the biggest risk to Nvidia here is a cash call, which is that it becomes a victim of its own success in the sense that investors get very, very excited about the Anthropic IPO and sell some Nvidia to fund it.”

With software considered to be perceived victims of AI, a reassuring print from CRM leader Salesforce gives some relief in predicting strong revenue expansion and deepening its partnership with Anthropic. Elsewhere in AI, AWS committed to deploy two million additional Nvidia GPUs across its global infrastructure in 2027-2028.

Attention will now turn to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major speech as Fed chair on Friday, giving investors fresh clues on the policy outlook after he faced criticism over a lack of clarity about his views on the economy.

“The market wants a little bit more hawkishness because you have seen some pretty strong numbers coming out on growth and inflation, pointing more toward higher rather than lower rates,” said Caspar Rock at Schroders Wealth Management. “More clarity should give a bit more confidence, and that might perk up the dollar rather than fixed interest markets.”

Earnings growth from core tech names “is crucial given this is the main driver for US markets, and tech investment is the main driver for US growth,” said Geoff Yu at BNY. However, “with strong growth comes the risk of tighter monetary policy, which for now is also the market’s base case.”

Still, some pockets of weakness tempered Thursday’s optimism. HP Inc. tumbled as investors worried about demand for the company’s computers and printers. Meanwhile, Wheat prices hit the highest since July 2023, keeping inflation concerns in focus alongside still-elevated energy prices.

Tech optimism was also not on display in Europe with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3%,  as a retreat in consumer stocks outweighed the gains in the technology sector.

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, led by chip stocks after Nvidia Corp.’s bullish sales outlook injected vitality into the AI trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% before paring. The Nvidia-inspired rally in chip stocks swept across the region, from South Korea to Japan with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia the biggest contributors. “Nvidia handed SK Hynix and Samsung one of the strongest demand signals they could have asked for,” said Josh Gilbert, an analyst at online trading platform eToro. “When the industry’s most important customer can not get enough memory and prices are still heading higher; the read-through for both stocks is very positive.”  Kioxia shares rose 5%, boosted by reports that it will build a new facility in northern Japan. The company confirmed after the market closed that it plans to spend more than ¥5 trillion ($31.4 billion) with Sandisk to ratchet up production capacity across the country.  Benchmarks in South Korea and China gained while Japanese stocks fluctuated. Philippines was the worst performer in the region, dropping the most in two months, as a third successive rate hike added to economic headwinds. AI-bellwether Korea also digested its central bank’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for a second consecutive meeting to contain inflation.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses as US trading gets under way, lifting yields by 2bp-3bp ahead of the monthly 7-year note auction, following a subpar, tailing 5Y on Wednesday. Yield-curve flattening trend unleashed by last week’s Treasury Department decision to expand buybacks targeting 10- to 30-year sectors is intact; 5s30 spread narrowed to under 79bp, lowest since July 29 (most recent Federal Reserve decision date), 2s10s to under 43bp, lowest since Aug.  10-year yield is about 2bp higher on the day near 4.67% and slightly cheaper vs UK and German counterparts. Oil prices, which in recent sessions have led yields lower, are little changed, inside Wednesday’s ranges.
$44 billion 7-year note auction at 1 p.m. New York time has WI yield near 4.52%, higher than results since May 2024; last month’s 7-year auction tailed slightly after a rally into the bidding deadline. IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; Wednesday saw just one (floating rate) offering priced.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with Aussie dollar extending its week-to-date outperformance versus the greenback.

In commodities, brent crude prices are a touch firmer, having fallen earlier, as traders weigh Hormuz discussions and the Russian escalation on Ukraine. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2%. Precious metals have trimmed earlier gains with spot gold now up just 0.2%. Bitcoin is up 2.4% and back above $80k. 

US economic data calendar includes July advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless claims and July inventories (8:30 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on CBNC at 10 a.m. and Fox Business at 1 p.m.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Kuwait and Qatar, two of the Persian Gulf’s smaller oil producers, are sending more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to an increase in shipments that are keeping global prices in check. The two countries, which exported a combined 2 million barrels a day of oil before the outbreak of the Iran war, have managed to get shipments back to 70% of pre-conflict levels. BBG
• Qatar’s prime minister will visit Tehran on Thursday in a bid to relaunch diplomacy after the U.S. and Iran traded recriminations over Washington’s promise to increase economic pressure on ‌Tehran by targeting its trade partners for sanctions. Reuters.
• Iraq is offering buyers of its crude the option to collect supplies from outside of the Persian Gulf for the first time since the Iran war began, highlighting resilient exports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz: BBG
• Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end. For now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities. BBG
• The Trump administration is weighing a new round of sweeping tariffs on semiconductors, despite warnings from tech companies that the move could doom U.S. hopes of dominating artificial intelligence. Politico
• Nvidia reports blowout quarter, says demand for AI chips is getting even hotter. Shares rallied as the chip giant forecast 70% revenue growth next year and defended its financial support of AI companies. WSJ
• Kioxia Corporation and Sandisk Corporation today announced anticipated significant investments in Japan, totaling over $31 billion (approximately 5 trillion yen) contingent upon government support. The investments through 2032 will continue to strengthen partnership, one of the most successful joint ventures across any industry. The partnership has helped drive decades of NAND flash memory innovation and invested over $50 billion (approximately 9 trillion yen) in Japan over the past 25 years. BBG
• Anthropic PBC has agreed to spend $45 billion to rent AI cloud computing power from Nscale’s flagship data center development in West Virginia, the latest move to secure capacity for its expanding business in advance of going public. BBG
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s more activist style of managing the nation’s debt has Wall Street war-gaming a potentially bigger shift in the government’s borrowing strategy over the coming months: BBG
• South Korea’s central bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 3%, its second consecutive tightening action, a move that was expected, as the country faces upside risks to both growth and inflation. Nikkei
• Norway’s economy picked up pace last quarter, growing 0.3% and keeping the door open for more monetary tightening. BBG
• Fed’s Cook (voter) denied wrongdoing and vowed to fight US President Trump’s effort to fire her from the Fed. Cook’s lawyer said there is no legally valid reason for ousting Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve board: RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with most indices in the green, after the flat performance stateside, where markets digested the firmer-than-expected headline PCE data and braced for NVIDIA earnings. The AI darling beat on top and bottom lines, although its shares were initially subdued, but were then boosted during the earnings call as the CFO flagged about a 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year. ASX 200 underperformed amid another barrage of earnings releases and after recent inflation data, which prompted a call by NAB for the RBA to resume hiking rates at the next meeting in September. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading the initial NVIDIA-spurred euphoria. KOSPI led the advances in the region as chipmakers cheered NVIDIA’s strong results and outlook, while investors were also unfazed by the BoK’s pre-emptive back-to-back rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid several earnings releases and slower Industrial Profits, although the mainland was kept afloat after the PBoC conducted both 7-day and overnight reverse repos.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Jul YY) 17.6% (Prev. 18.7%).
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2026-27 (AUD)(Estimate 3) 200.7B (Prev. 173.4B).
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2025-26 (AUD)(Estimate 7) 210.0B (Prev. 207.6B).

European bourses begin Thursday’s trade with a negative tilt, with the majority of indices in the red, outside of the DAX 40. The primary reason for the upside in the German benchmark is the read-across following upbeat Nvidia and Salesforce earnings. The broad  positiveness in chipmakers was also seen overnight, with the KOSPI closing with gains of 1.5%. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Tech the only sector printing decent gains. To the downside lies Food, Beverages & Tobacco, with Chemicals and Optimised Personal Care rounding out the sector laggards. Key movers include: Pernod Ricard (-6.0%), Q2 revenue missed estimates and guided FY sales growth at the lower end of its range due to soft US market; Delivery Hero (+0.4%), raises its FY26 guidance.

Top European News

• German GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -26.6 vs. Exp. -29.6 (Prev. -29.4).
• European M3 Money Supply (Jul YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%).

FX

• Lacklustre price action across the FX space which has all G10 currencies essentially flat against the Buck.
• Nothing to derail the AI Capex narrative within NVIDIA earnings, in which Q2 results were strong and guidance impressed; a release which did not give too much lead to FX markets. Focus now turns to numerous Fed speakers today including the hawkish Hammack and Schmid; thereafter attention will be on Chair Warsh, who is set to speak on Friday at 15:00 BST. DXY flat/modestly firmer with a peak of 99.20 which is just above the 200DMA.
• JPY confirms the general trend seen across G10s with not many surprises from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino whose tone was consistent with pricing of September’s likely 25bps hike, noting in both of his speeches the BoJ needed to “pay more attention to upside inflation risks than before”. USD/JPY range bound within 159.30/40, calendar is light so will likely be dictated by a busy US schedule with just Tokyo CPI scheduled for Friday.
• EUR flat against the Buck with EZ catalysts light ahead of ECB minutes. Price action today will likely be at the whim of the Buck with ECB minutes likely to not surprise. EUR saw some modest weakness of around 10 pips after taking a lead from French stocks ahead of the first French presidential debate at 15:45 BST. Note that the docket features the three favourites, Marine Le Pen who does not appease markets and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who recently touted France “set fire” to a large chunk of its public debt. EUR/USD slipped from the familiar 1.1650 to a 1.1634 base, before paring that aforementioned downside.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, with USTs (U/C) flat, whilst Bunds (-23 ticks) and Gilts (-21 ticks) are pressured. Earlier action was uneventful, but a report that the US is mulling a new round of tariffs on chips spurred some mild downside in fixed benchmarks.
• USTs attempt to pare back some of the pressure seen on Wednesday following the slightly hotter US PCE report, whereby the headline topped expectations. On the Fed, it may not shift too much for policymakers heading into the September meeting – but a slew of Fed speak is expected in the next few days. Today sees interviews via Schmid and Hammack, whilst Chair Warsh is set to speak on Friday. A tight-lipped approach from the Chair could see markets begin to shift attention back to credibility concerns, and therefore result in the resumption of the debasement trade. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr (4.65%) remains shy of the level which saw the Treasury announce its long-end support (4.7%) – albeit only marginally so. A resumption of debt / credibility concerns could see the 10yr circulate within a 4.75-5% range into the next bout of key US data. On the flip side, a significant breach below the 4.5% mark would likely require a dovish Warsh on Friday (unlikely), and favourable NFP (Sept 4) / CPI (Sept 11) reports.
• Bunds and Gilts are pressured this morning, The downside can, in part, be explained by the ongoing strength in Dutch TTF gas prices. Woes have also been further exacerbated by recent reports that Russian President Putin is to escalate the war in Ukraine, as he sees talks with Ukraine at a dead end.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, Nour News reported that Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag. The piece added that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers. Interestingly, a headline out of Iranian Press TV suggested that Oman reportedly stopped cooperating with the US to facilitate escorted tanker movements through southern Hormuz. Note: Trump has twice publicly threatened Oman with military action due to its bilateral negotiations with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Meanwhile, some focus returns to Russia-Ukraine after Bloomberg sources suggested Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov initially extended losses north of USD 1/bbl, but have since clambered off lows – potentially thanks to the Nour News report above. Currently WTI and Brent are posting losses of only USD 0.10/bbl, with the latter currently sitting towards the upper end of a USD 85.32-86.99/bbl range. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF is relatively flat intraday but off highs after dipping under EUR 66/MWh this morning before finding support near EUR 65/MWh and somewhat stabilising around EUR 65.50/MWh.
• Metals are mixed with precious metals taking a breather after yesterday’s losses, although with upside capped as the DXY remains resilient to oil losses. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,593-4,643/oz range, with yesterday’s parameter. Spot silver found early support at its 100 DMA (USD 68.24/oz) and resistance near yesterday’s high (USD 69.95/oz). Base metals are mostly subdued by the resiliency of the buck, but underpinned by ongoing China stimulus hopes, 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,207.30- 14,323.13/t range at the time of writing.
• Kuwait and Qatar have reportedly increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to around 1.4mmln BPD, some 70% of pre-conflict levels, according to reports.
• Thai gold dealers said that the Ministry of Finance currently has no near-term plans to impose a gold tax.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said the US did not add any new demands at the end of the negotiations with Canada and that the US wanted mutual protection on things like steel and aluminium in trade talks with Canada. Greer also stated that the US won’t just sit down and take it if Canada imposes more retaliation, as well as noting there are no open channels with Canada at the moment.
• The US White House is reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on chips, Politico reports citing sources. The report detailed that one approach under consideration would increase the number of tech products subject to levies. This means that duties would hit chips, and potentially items such as laptops, gaming consoles and servers that fill data centres.
• US Senator Moreno (R) reportedly sent a letter to USTR Greer to open a Section 301 investigation on South Korea over its treatment of Coupang, according to Semafor.
• The US is investigating Apex Logistics over AI chip smuggling to China.
• US President Trump signed a proclamation to increase lean beef imports with the quota increased by 100k tons of beef per month effective September 1st for 90 days, while the proclamation increases lean beef trimmings that are imported with no-above-quota tariff.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Radev said October and December meetings are both live, Econostream reported. Radev stated that waiting until second-round effects are fully visible could mean acting too late, but that there is not enough broad-based evidence to say growth risks are “clearly to the upside”. On neutral, he said that 2.5% is not a “precise dividing line” but “probably around neutral”.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said he believes the BoJ should continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. He added that the BoJ must be mindful of upside price risk more than ever before and that they will debate policy at every meeting while taking such risks into account. Himino highlighted that if underlying inflation rises to a level above the 2% price target, it would have an adverse impact on the economy. On the currency, the BoJ wants to scrutinise the various effects of a weak Yen on the economy.
• BoK kept rates steady to 3.00%, as expected. Forecasts: Sees 2026 CPI at 2.7% (prev. 2.7%), 2027 at 2.3% (prev. 2.3%); 2026 GDP growth at 3.3% (prev. 2.6%) and 2027 at 2.9% (prev. 2.1%). BoK says rate decision was not unanimous as Board Member Hwang dissented on rate decision, while inflation is projected to remain above target level for a considerable time
• NAB expects the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps to 4.6% in September.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag, classification society and insurer, and that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers, Nour News reported citing an official.
• An Iranian lawmaker said Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and vessels from the US, France, Britain or other hostile countries to enter the region.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Pakistan is not obliged to comply with unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran, while UN sanctions would constitute a different matter.
• Iraqi sources report an airstrike on the main base of separatist terrorist groups in the city of Sorran, located in the Erbil province of Iraqi Kurdistan region, according to Fars News Agency.
• Two explosions were reported in Mokha, Yemen, from missiles fired by the Houthis

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• CIA chief’s recent surprise trip to Moscow was to warn Russia not to attack NATO, according to WSJ.
• Russian Government Spokesperson Peskov said Russia’s response to Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s economic and trade infrastructure will be harsh.
• Russia’s Kremlin said Moscow remains open to participating in negotiations for a Ukrainian settlement, Al Arabiya reported.
• Russian Foreign Ministry said the UK should abandon its hostile position towards Russia, which creates risks of transferring the conflict to a fundamentally new level, IFX reported.
• Russia attacked an industrial facility in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, according to Ukrainian authorities.
• EU states resurrect plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, with Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain pushing to use the funds to solve Kyiv’s funding crisis, according to FT

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea denounced the US’ decision to sell weapons to South Korea and said US hostility to North Korea is clearly acknowledged, while it will respond swiftly and decisively to hostile actions, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jul P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Aug 22 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 208k, prior 206k
• 8:30 am: Aug 15 Continuing Claims, est. 1792k, prior 1799k

Central Bank Speakers 

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Hammack to appear on CNBC
• 1:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Appears on Fox Business

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a mixed session yesterday, the market mood has turned more positive again overnight following Nvidia’s earnings last night. The chipmaker’s results delivered a moderate revenue beat, with revenue guidance for the current quarter also coming slightly ahead of expectations ($108bn vs $105.2bn est.). Crucially, this was accompanied by a bullish medium-term outlook from the company’s management on the conference call, who expected revenue growth of around 70% in the next fiscal year that starts in January 2027. So this signaled greater optimism that current runaway growth in AI demand would continue into next year.

Nvidia’s shares were up by +4.7% by the end of after-hours trading, after a -1.59% decline in yesterday’s regular session, helping futures on the S&P 500 (+0.48%) and Nasdaq (+0.83%) to decent gains overnight. The tech mood has also been helped by encouraging results from Salesforce, which released a slightly stronger-than-expected sales outlook and a deepening of its partnership with Anthropic, as well as CrowdStrike, whose shares jumped by nearly +10% after-hours. The positive tech sentiment has supported gains in Asia this morning, with the Kospi (+1.49%) leading the way, while the CSI 300 (+0.50%), Shanghai Composite (+0.60%) and Nikkei (+0.18%) are also all in the green, although the Hang Seng (-0.46%) is drifting lower.

Ahead of Nvidia’s results, equities had had a quiet day, with the S&P 500 (-0.02%), Nasdaq (-0.08%) and Mag-7 (-0.13%) all seeing marginal declines. European equities also saw muted moves, with the STOXX 600 (-0.01%) barely changed, while the DAX (+0.08%), CAC (+0.27%) and FTSEMIB (+0.31%) posted small advances.

Before that, yesterday’s main highlight was a hawkish-leaning batch of US data. While July core PCE inflation came in line with consensus at +0.2% mom, the details of the release were more inflationary. The unrounded reading was +0.246%, so just a smidgen from rounding up to +0.3%. That’s stronger than had been implied by the CPI and PPI prints as super core services PCE rose by +0.28% mom. There were also upward revisions to core PCE inflation for the previous three months, leaving the 3- and 6-month annualized rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, so showing little sign of progress on disinflation. And other details of the PCE release were on the stronger side, with personal income rising +0.4% mom (vs +0.2% exp.).

Meanwhile, other US data releases pointed to strong economic momentum. Durable goods orders rose by +1.1% in July (vs +0.5% expected), with capital goods shipment growth (+1.4% mom vs +1.1% exp.) accelerating to an impressive +11.3% yoy. Finally, the second release of the Q2 GDP print saw consumer spending revised higher (from +3.2% to +3.4% annualized). That meant real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key metric of underlying domestic demand, rose by +4.2% annualized in Q2, their strongest gain since early 2023, even as the Iran energy shock dragged on purchasing power. In all, it was a solid slate of data that’s hard to square with a view that Fed policy is restrictive.

US rates saw some hawkish repricing in response. While pricing of a September Fed hike was pretty stable (up from 36% to 37%), there was greater repricing of Fed expectations further out with 42bps of hikes now being priced by next June (+3.7bps on the day). This left 2yr Treasury yields +3.6bps higher at 4.21%. The sell-off was more modest at the long-end, with the 10yr up +1.8bps and the 30yr a marginal +0.2bps. We’ve seen a sizeable flattening of the Treasury curve since the surprise buyback announcement last Wednesday, with the 2s30s slope down by -15.5bps over this period.

European bond markets saw an even clearer reversal from Tuesday’s rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.0bps), BTPs (+5.3bps) and gilts (+4.3bps) all moving higher. We heard from the ECB’s Schnabel, who underlined her position as one of the most hawkish voices on the ECB Governing Council. She told Bloomberg that “further tightening will be necessary”, adding that given “resilient aggregate demand, it is critical to prevent the occurrence of second-round effects early on”. That said, Schnabel did little to push back on current market pricing, saying that markets “seem to understand our reaction function very well”. That comes as OIS markets are pricing 62bps of ECB hikes by next June (+6.5bps yesterday), including the almost fully priced hike for the upcoming September meeting.

Staying in Europe, tonight we’ll see the first French presidential debate ahead of the April 2027 election. The gradual heating up of the pre-election campaign comes as a widening of French sovereign spreads over summer has left France with the highest 10yr yield among the large and medium-sized euro area economies. The French far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon drew attention on Tuesday night as he revived the call to cancel French debt currently held by the Banque de France, though this idea has been dismissed by other politicians across France’s political spectrum including RN’s Bardella.

On the geopolitical front, we saw limited news on Iran, with some of the optimism that emerged the day before fading as Reuters reported, citing Iranian sources, that an agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been finalized. Brent crude still ended the day -0.84% lower at $87.84/bbl, but was well off the lows of around $86 early in the European session. This morning Brent is down another -0.48%.

In yesterday’s other notable market moves, both wheat (+6.56%) and corn (+2.70%) prices spiked to their highest level in three years. Strikes between Russia and Ukraine have caused major disruption to both countries’ grain exports over the past several weeks and yesterday’s mood wasn’t helped by a Bloomberg report claiming that Russia’s President Putin is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine. The decline in Ukrainian and Russian grain exports has intensified a challenging backdrop for agriculture prices that also includes the emergent El Niño, this summer’s drought in Europe and the disruption to fertilizer exports out of the Gulf.

Elsewhere in Asia, the BoK raised its policy rate for the second consecutive time, hiking from 2.75% to 3.0%. Although the hike was widely expected, the market surprise came from the bank’s upgraded growth projections, with GDP for 2026 now at 3.3% (2.6% prevs) and 2027 at 2.9% (2.1% prevs). Although Korean rates initially came under pressure following the announcement, ten-year futures have since recovered and are trading around 32 ticks higher.

To the day ahead now, US data releases include July advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and weekly jobless claims, while in Europe we’ll have Germany September GfK consumer confidence, France July PPI and Eurozone July M3 data. On the central bank side, we’ll get the accounts of the July ECB meeting and the Jackson Hole symposium will get under way, though its main highlights, including Warsh’s speech, will be on Friday. Earnings include Marvell, Workday, Affirm and Dollar Tree. And France will see its first major presidential debate ahead of the April 2027 election.

Authored by Guy de la Bédoyère via The Daily Sceptic,

Friday, August 21st 2026 was a slow news day. You could tell because the BBC’s Radio 4 6 O’Clock News led with the vacuous revelation Harry and Meghan are coming back to the UK. Slightly less uninteresting was the second story, the disastrous case against the Mail and how Harry and his fellow litigants are going to have to pay tens of millions of pounds to the newspaper in compensation.

There were more vacuous revelations to come. The ‘other’ top story was the impending catastrophe promised by the mounting El Niño crisis in the Pacific. The 6 O’Clock News was typical of the corporation’s output for the day.

This is how the bulletin flagged up the story in the headlines:

[Announcer] Dire warnings from the Met Office about the effects of what it describes as an unprecedented El Niño event.

Cue then to the Voice of Doom, in this case the obliging Professor Adam Scaife – head of the Met Office’s long-range forecasting and a professor of applied maths at the University of Exeter – who was identified later in the bulletin:

We think that when it peaks in November and December it’s likely to be [a] record event, beyond anything we’ve seen in living memory.

That sort of phrasing, readers may recall, is straight out of the 17th-century playbook of weather catastrophising, as I discussed in a piece for this website in 2024 (‘They Were Catastrophising the Climate in the 17th Century‘). Instead of the modern ‘since records began’, Scaife had opted for a version of the 17th Century’s equivalent. Here’s a quote from that piece I wrote:

All summer long there were “so great rains, that produced greater floods than in the memory of man”, wrote John Locke in 1673.

Such methods of emphasising a point are a handy way of terrorising oneself and other people because they evoke a sense of something both unprecedented and terrifying, predicated entirely on the nebulous limits of human memory without even specifying what that amounts to – or doesn’t.

Just look at the BBC’s wording.

Not only are there “warnings”, but they are also “dire”. ‘Dire’ comes from the Latin word dirus, which means something ‘awful’ or ‘ominous’. Appropriately enough, it was a word often used by the Romans in a religious context when confronted with a bad omen, either in the form of a natural event or as the result of a sacrifice, such as the examination of the animal victim’s entrails.

There was something overwhelmingly religious about the bulletin’s coverage of the El Niño apocalypse because it served as no more than a harbinger of doom – something that might or might not happen and, even if it does, we are in no position to know exactly what form it will take.

It was ironic, but typical, that a scientist confronted with something he doesn’t know for a fact but is only guessing resorted to religious-style phrasing. This was exactly the sort of behaviour we saw during Covid too. The phenomenon is in fact entirely normal for most human beings. We live in a world of uncertainty and there is a latent desire among all people to believe they live in exceptional times.

Scientists are all too inclined, in circumstances where they do not know what will happen, to use their scientific status to substantiate such claims. This affords their pronouncements an aura of false credibility – both to themselves and their audiences.

The full item was delivered by the BBC’s Environment Correspondent Matt McGrath (spin forward in the bulletin to 07:26). It included more of Scaife – he has worked in the meteorology field since the early 1990s – who expanded darkly: “I have never seen an event like this in our forecasts.”

McGrath:

[Vague sounds of weather and barely audible Spanish fading down] In Peru this week the famous Machu Picchu tourist trail closed because of flooding, said to be [my italics] linked to a strengthening El Niño. This is the naturally occurring pattern that shifts weather across the globe. Scientists are growing ever more concerned [my italics] that this year’s event will be exceptionally strong with widespread impacts.

Let’s linger with McGrath’s intro for a moment. First, note how he used the words “said to be” when suggesting that the flooding might be linked to a “strengthening El Niño”. “Said to be”? That’s like a medieval rumour and as fatuous as Percy’s observation to Blackadder that “They do say that the Infanta’s eyes are more beautiful than the famous Stone of Galveston.” He also uses “ever more concerned” to suggest a crisis which isn’t only impending but is also becoming worse, to add some gratuitous dynamic to the story.

McGrath continued: “Professor Adam Scaife is the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting:”

[Scaife] I have never seen an event like this in our forecasts. The tropical Pacific is warming faster than I’ve ever seen. We think that when it peaks in November and December it’s likely to be [a] record event, unprecedented beyond anything we’ve seen in living memory.

You’ll note that although this was depicted as a sound scientific opinion, the words of Scaife quoted amounted to no more than a personal anecdote. It was unsubstantiated – with no data or detail of any kind supplied (perhaps McGrath cut it out). Naturally, it also went completely unchallenged. It’s at moments like this that scientists seem entirely to forget the scientific principle that you should test every hypothesis to destruction, not make vague pronouncements based on your perception of the utility and relevance of the limits of human memory.

McGrath continued:

In Panama drought has drained the freshwater lakes that feed the shipping canal, forcing the authorities to cut the number of vessels passing through. And the effects are already reaching people’s pockets. India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, is now importing for the first time in a decade. A weak monsoon has hit production, and prices have jumped 40% in two months.

Despite the assertion that the event is unprecedented, in July 1920 and during the 1930s drought brought water levels in Gatún Lake dangerously low, nearly forcing closures of the canal and prompting major new dam construction to secure its water supply. This led to the building of the Madden Dam across the Chagres River in 1935 to create Lake Alajuela, which bolstered the water supply.

As for India, McGrath – who appeared only to have followed other news releases on Friday – didn’t mention that India is also one of the largest sugar consumers in the world and thus especially vulnerable to fluctuations in the crop. A ‘decade’ is hardly a long time in world history for a start. As it happens, India’s sugar production has increased by a staggering 7.6 times since the mid-1970s, meaning that El Niño aside, any environmental fluctuations are going to have more visible effects.

Moreover, any problems caused by high rainfall have been compounded by Red Rot and Top Borer disease, as well as stockpiling and speculation (according to the Financial Express). This illustrates just how complex these scenarios are, and the banality of attributing them to single causes.

McGrath ploughed on:

And it’s not just food that’s likely to be impacted. The same weather turmoil could push up energy prices too. Professor Amanda Maycock [of the Met Office Academic Partnership] is from the University of Leeds:

[Maycock] I think we’re definitely looking at the compound effect of different influences from a weather and climate perspective – you know, the prices of things like liquid natural gas imports and so on can be affected by demand that’s happening elsewhere in the world, which may well be affected by the El Niño if there are droughts in certain regions, reductions in the production of hydroelectricity, for example in places like Brazil. That could have a knock-on effect for us here in the UK.

Apart from observing the eternal fact that the weather and climate affect human activity, Maycock didn’t seem to say much of consequence at all – at least in what McGrath used. But note the opening words “I think” and the later “could have” (no more valid than ‘might not’).

McGrath wasn’t finished. He had a moment of lucidity when he acknowledged that there’s no evidence climate change is affecting El Niño, but he quickly got a grip and found a way to leave listeners quaking in their boots at the prospect of a hotter year next year – so “scientists say”:

The effects depend on where you are in the globe. As mentioned, a weaker monsoon in India but for the UK the prediction is for more rain in a wetter, stormier autumn. El Niño is a naturally occurring event and there’s no clear evidence that climate change is making it stronger but it’s arriving in an already warmer world and that, scientists say, is what will sharpen its impacts. But all the extra heat that’s set to release from the ocean into the atmosphere, next year is likely to be the hottest ever recorded.

Even if the predictions turn out to be true, McGrath showed no interest in what we might do about it. The story seemed purely concerned with the prospect of doom.

The bulletin continued with a piece by the BBC’s Climate Editor, Justin Rowlatt, about how “unusual” the current El Niño is. He harked back to the last extreme El Niño event in 1877 but darkly reminded listeners that the world is now 1.4 degrees warmer than in “pre-industrial times”, an era the parameters of which he did not bother to specify, presumably because ‘pre-industrial times’ is simply the next vague block of time always wheeled out before ‘living memory’. As it happens, just as a for instance, between 250 BC and AD 400 Roman Europe was around 1-2 degrees warmer than the 20th Century.

In the Roman world, and almost anywhere else in antiquity, anything that seemed deviant was recorded and scrutinised, whether it involved a meteor falling from the sky, a talking cow, a swarm of bees, a maidservant giving birth to a boy with only one hand or anything else that looked or sounded peculiar. By such signs, promising or ominous, the Romans ruled their lives. The statesman Cicero wondered whether the superstitious observations and the attention paid to omens and their interpretation amounted to self-induced imprisonment. This mentality has endured into modern times.

As ever, the whole El Niño news item really amounted to nothing but speculation and glossed over the fact that since time immemorial human beings have had to cope with extreme weather events and climate change of all types and hues.

When modern scientists bolster their claims with terms like ‘I think’, ‘could be’ and ‘anything we’ve seen in living memory’, and useful-idiot journalists substantiate their stories with ‘scientists say’, I’m not sure what the difference is between now and the ancient world.

One thing is certain: these terms ain’t science, but perhaps it takes a non-scientist to notice. Whatever happens next year is beyond our control, so when and if it does, we’ll just have to cope with it.

Appropriately enough for such pap, by Saturday August 22nd the story had disappeared from the bulletins, gone with the wind, though no doubt it’ll be back like a bad penny on the next slow news day.

“Science requires an almost complete openness to all ideas. On the other hand, it requires the most rigorous and uncompromising scepticism.”

– Carl Sagan, in ‘Wonder and Scepticism’, Skeptical Inquirer (vol. 19, no. 1), 1995

Minimum wages vary widely around the world, but comparing headline wage rates alone can obscure how much workers can actually buy with them.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, compares monthly minimum wages using 2024 data from the International Labour Organization. Figures are expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted U.S. dollars, making wages more comparable based on what they can buy locally.

Where no single national minimum exists, ILOSTAT uses other applicable wage floors to make comparisons across countries.

The Countries With the Highest Minimum Wages

Switzerland tops the dataset at $3,804 per month, based on a regional rather than nationwide minimum wage. Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands follow at roughly $2,900. Eight of the top 10 countries are in Europe, while Australia and New Zealand are the only two outside the region.

South Korea stands out at $2,362, the highest figure in Asia. The U.S. sits much lower at $1,257 per month, ranking 25th overall. The ILO uses the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour rather than the $10.69 average state minimum in 2024.

After adjusting for purchasing power, the U.S. federal minimum wage is less than half Germany’s, despite the U.S. having one of the highest average incomes in the world.

Minimum-wage systems aren’t identical across countries. The U.S. figure uses the federal minimum, while Canada’s figure represents the median of provincial rates. As a result, the figures should be read as standardized country comparisons rather than the wage floor faced by every worker.

Countries where wage floors are set primarily through collective bargaining, including Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Austria, and Italy, are shown as having no comparable data.

Why the U.S. Minimum Wage Ranks 25th

One reason for America’s position is that the federal minimum wage hasn’t increased in 17 years. It has remained at $7.25 an hour since July 2009, the longest stretch without an increase since the federal minimum wage was established.

Inflation has steadily eroded what that $7.25 paycheck can buy. To match the purchasing power of the federal minimum wage when it took effect in 2009, workers would need to earn $11.47 an hour today. In other words, its purchasing power has fallen by roughly 37% since 2009.

Many Americans earn above the federal wage floor. Thirty states and Washington, D.C., have minimum wages above $7.25, while some cities set even higher rates. Still, the long federal freeze helps explain why the U.S. sits significantly below many other high-income economies.

How Cost of Living Reshuffles the Ranking

Adjusting for local prices produces some surprising comparisons. Poland ranks 15th globally at $2,141 per month, close to Spain at $2,248 and ahead of Japan at $1,839.

In Latin America, Costa Rica leads at $1,093, just $164 below the U.S. federal minimum on a purchasing-power basis. Last year, Costa Rica raised private-sector minimum wages using a formula that considers both the cost of living and productivity growth.

These figures offer a better sense of what minimum wages can buy locally, but they don’t account for taxes or benefits. Because the adjustments are national, they can also mask large differences in housing costs between cities and regions.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic comparing minimum wages across countries and U.S. states, adjusted for living costs.

Via Remix News,

Portuguese President António José Seguro has officially signed into law a bill banning face-concealing attire in public spaces, with the move seen targeting the full-face Islamic veils like the burqa and niqab.

Addressing the national debate, President Seguro framed the decision around human interaction, stating:

“The face should be considered a central element of human identity and communication.”

However, the former Socialist Party leader acknowledged the controversial nature of the ban, recognizing it as a matter of significant cultural and social sensitivity.

The law was largely backed by the country’s right-wing politicians and labeled the “burqa law” by Portuguese media.

It passed parliament in July with the votes of right-wing parties, with the left firmly in opposition.

The new legal framework strictly limits garments designed to hide one’s identity in public spaces.

It also penalizes forcing individuals to cover their faces based on gender, religion, or age.

Violators face financial penalties ranging from €150 to €3,000.

There are, however, some exceptions.

Wearing items that cover the face, such as medical masks, professional/artistic gear, and extreme weather wear, are all examples of exceptions under the law.

Read more here…

Building on Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak’s note from earlier this week, which forecasts that right-wing parties are positioned to make electoral gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months, new polling data from Germany further suggest that Alternative for Germany (AfD) is performing exceptionally well as citizens demand political change after years of failed progressive experiments that encouraged a Third World migrant invasion and nation-killing deindustrialization trends.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel cited new polling data on X from a Forsa survey showing that, if a federal election were held now, eastern German voters would choose:

• AfD: 43%
• The Left: 16%
• CDU/CSU: 13%
• Greens: 9%
• SPD: 9%
• FDP: 3%
• Other parties: 7%

Weidel said, “According to a recent Forsa survey, the AfD is at 43% across the entire East, while the CDU is down to just 13%. The citizens want the political turnaround!”

Einer aktuellen Forsa-Umfrage nach liegt die AfD im gesamten Osten bei 43%, während die CDU auf nur noch 13% kommt. Die Bürger wollen die politische Wende!https://t.co/c94bESp3Qu pic.twitter.com/lrKvllJCAa

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) August 26, 2026

The key takeaway from the new survey is that the AfD is polling at more than three times the level of the center-right CDU/CSU and exceeds the combined support of the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens.

German weekly newspaper Junge Freiheit commented on the new survey, saying, “The numbers are particularly interesting ahead of the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6th and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania two weeks later.”

The outlet continued, “The assessment of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s (CDU) performance remains abysmal across Germany. As in the previous week, only 13 percent of those surveyed expressed satisfaction, while 85 percent were dissatisfied.”

Elon Musk has previously stated, “AfD is the only hope for Germany.”

AfD is the only hope for Germany https://t.co/6ONn1LOipE

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 19, 2026

One reason German citizens are particularly frustrated is that Europe’s economic engine is collapsing, with Volkswagen Group labor representatives warning earlier this week that as many as 140,000 jobs could be cut at the struggling automaker.

Circling back to Szczepaniak, the Nomura analyst wrote, “Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not so fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today.”

He added, “Now, if anything, financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies.”

EU Election Roadmap 

Read Nomura’s assessment of Europe’s changing political landscape here.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain’s prisons are becoming recruitment grounds for Islamic gangs, with white inmates converting under threat of violence while the system frees terrorists early, jails protesters longer than child sex attackers, and racks up hundreds of millions housing foreign offenders.

New Ministry of Justice figures have exposed a stark reality inside England and Wales’ jails. One in five Muslims behind bars is white – nearly four times the 5.8 per cent rate in the general population.

The number of white Muslim prisoners has climbed from 2,767 in 2022 to 3,218 by the end of June 2025, a 16 per cent rise. Overall Muslim inmates rose 14 per cent in the same period, from 14,037 to 16,051, now making up roughly 18 per cent of the prison population despite Muslims comprising just 6.5 per cent of the country.

? Read more https://t.co/b8r0O97xDs ??

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) August 25, 2026

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy laid out the numbers and the implications. “The percentage of Muslims who are white in our prisons is so vastly higher than in the general population it raises serious questions,” he said.

Islamist gangs control many of our prisons.

Conversion to Islam is the only way to stay safe from them.

I obtained data showing 1 in 5 Muslim prisoners are white.

That’s four times higher than in the general population.

This cannot continue. pic.twitter.com/G87pfD7EoI

— Nick Timothy MP (@NJ_Timothy) August 25, 2026

“We know that experts have warned repeatedly about forced conversions taking place behind bars, driven by Islamic gangs. We need to be honest that something is not right here – Labour must urgently investigate and stamp out forced conversions in prison,” he further urged.

Government advisers have documented the pattern for years. Jonathan Hall KC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, described Islamist terrorists operating as “self-styled emirs” who controlled prisoners through “leadership and recruitment.”

This included targeting “vulnerable or lonely prisoners, using guidance, sharing of food or material gifts” and “conversion backed by implicit or actual violence.”

The London Bridge attacker Usman Khan, while inside, encouraged prisoners to take Muslim names and wear Muslim dress while trying to convert others.

Ian Acheson, who reviewed Islamist extremism in prisons, said conversions often occur “as a pragmatic response to who controls power and space in our prisons.” In high-security jails especially, safety is at a premium and large numbers of violent young men seek belonging. “So Islam in this case has gang characteristics.”

‘We need to have much tighter regulation and control of the prison system’

Fiyaz Mughal, founder of Muslims Against Antisemitism, warns the UK prison system is failing to control violent Muslim gangs, leaving staff and inmates powerless. pic.twitter.com/TVdJzSr6Pa

— GB News (@GBNEWS) December 22, 2025

A 2023 government-commissioned review by Colin Bloom found gangs ordering new arrivals to become Muslim or face consequences. “Failure to identify as a Muslim meant that at best the new prisoner would be denied ‘protection’ from the dominant Muslim gang on that wing, or at worst the new prisoner would be subjected to violence and intimidation from that same gang.”

A lawyer who regularly visits top-security prisons reported the process starts almost immediately. “This is something which will happen hours after arriving on a wing. Immediately they arrive in prison they slot into the gang hierarchy. In some cases there are entire floors dominated by Muslim gangs.”

Some conversions are opportunistic – “convenience Muslims” seeking extra time for prayers or better halal food. Others are coerced. Qurans left on beds carry a clear message.

The Ministry of Justice insists it does not tolerate intimidation or faith-based coercion and claims prisons act swiftly. Yet the numbers keep rising, and there are now 140 Muslim chaplains compared with 87 for the Church of England.

This is the same prison system that continues to house thousands of foreign national offenders at enormous cost to the British taxpayer.

Figures show 10,487 foreign national offenders costing £629 million a year – money that could fund 16,500 police officers or 15,000 NHS nurses.

Albania tops the list, followed by Ireland and Poland. Deportations remain slow, tangled in missing documents, uncooperative origin countries, and European Convention on Human Rights claims.

Reform UK’s prisons adviser Vanessa Frake called the bill “staggering.” She noted the drawn-out process: discarded passports, slow diplomatic correspondence, refusals by origin countries, and Article 8 family-life claims. Even a deal to return 200 Albanian prisoners came with conditions and lower daily payments to Albania than the UK pays to keep them.

While foreign offenders and Islamist networks embed inside the system, the authorities have shown a different urgency when it comes to early release.

Zahid Iqbal, convicted in 2013 for plotting to bomb an Army base using an Al-Qaeda manual, was approved for release three years early despite previous non-compliance and warnings from prison and community managers.

Colin Sutton, Reform UK’s crime adviser, called the decision “baffling.” “This wasn’t a guy in his bedroom cooking something up. This was somebody who arranged training. He had links with al-Qaeda. He was a proper terrorist.”

Labour’s broader early-release schemes have accelerated the emptying of cells to manage overcrowding. Thousands of offenders, including those convicted of violence, have been freed earlier than previous tariffs allowed. Even after partial pauses and exclusions for certain sex offences, the direction of travel remains clear: capacity management takes priority over consistent public protection.

Contrast that with the treatment of British citizens who protest the consequences of mass migration or speak out online. Lucy Connolly, already imprisoned for a single X post after the Southport attacks, faced the threat of recall to prison for reposting a satirical comment about Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. Probation officials treated the joke as “inciting violence” after an anonymous complaint.

In Essex, protests outside an asylum hotel housing Ethiopian migrant Hadush Kebatu erupted after he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman. Kebatu received 12 months. British protesters involved in the subsequent disorder received far longer terms.

Charlie Land got 32 months. Jonathan Glover got 30 months. Lee Gower, a local father and youth football coach, received two years and nine months. Other locals drew sentences of 22 to 33 months. Combined custodial terms for several of them exceeded 17 years – longer than the perpetrator who triggered the unrest.

Judges stressed that violence against police is unacceptable. Yet the sentencing disparity is unmistakable. Locals reacting to a sexual assault on a child by a small-boat arrival spend more time inside than the man who committed the assault.

Meanwhile white prisoners report pressure to convert for survival, foreign national offenders cost hundreds of millions, and convicted terrorists walk early under capacity rules.

Prisons reflect the wider failures of open borders and selective enforcement. Gangs exploit the vacuum. Vulnerable inmates adapt or suffer. Taxpayers foot the bill.

Ordinary Britons who notice and object face the sharp end of the law. The figures on white Muslim prisoners are not a statistical curiosity. They are the measurable result of a system that has lost control of its own institutions.

Authored by Luc Lelièvre via Mises Institute,

Loïc Wacquant and Murray Rothbard come from completely different worlds. Wacquant, in Punishing the Poor (2009), analyzes how modern states manage marginalized populations through policing and incarceration. Rothbard, in The Ethics of Liberty (1982), argues that the state is a monopoly of coercion and that real justice means restitution to victims rather than punishment imposed by the government. At first glance, they seem to have nothing in common. Yet, when you look closely at what each says about crime and punishment, they describe remarkably similar institutional dynamics: a penal system that does not exist to deliver justice but to maintain political power, control vulnerable communities, and satisfy the public’s desire for punishment.

Wacquant argues that modern punishment targets not crime itself but people with low incomes. In Punishing the Poor, he writes that “it is not so much crime that is being fought, but the poor themselves.” He attributes this dynamic to welfare retrenchment and what he interprets as neoliberal restructuring. This is Wacquant’s interpretation. My purpose here is not to defend or refute it, but to summarize his institutional analysis and compare it with Rothbard’s critique of state power. Wacquant’s central point is that the penal system expands as social protections shrink, turning prisons into warehouses for people pushed out of the labor market. He portrays the United States as an expansive apparatus of social control in which punishment falls primarily on street crime while much white-collar wrongdoing is managed through administrative and legal processes.

Rothbard approaches the issue from a different angle. For him, crime is fundamentally an aggression against a person or their property. Justice should repair the victim. That means restitution – returning what was taken, plus a penalty for the harm done. In Rothbard’s view, prison is a double injustice. It fails to compensate the victim and forces taxpayers to pay for the criminal’s room and board. As one Mises Institute essay summarizes, “the victim receives nothing and is then ‘robbed’ once more through taxes to feed and house the criminal.” Rothbard sees the prison system as wasteful, immoral, and fundamentally misaligned with justice. His alternative is clear: restitution, even if it must be paid through supervised work when the offender has no money.

Rothbard’s critique is not only moral but also economic. In his landmark article “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach” (1968), Gary Becker reached a similar conclusion from a different perspective. Every sanction carries costs as well as benefits, and incarceration is among the most expensive. If restitution, fines, or compensated labor can deter crime while restoring victims, prison becomes difficult to justify except for dangerous offenders. Becker’s analysis complements Rothbard’s argument by showing that restitution is not merely ethically preferable – it is also economically superior.

Wacquant and Rothbard share an understanding of the state’s role. Wacquant views the penal state as a bureaucratic arm of what he calls neoliberal governance, used to control marginalized populations. Rothbard views the penal state as a predatory institution that thrives on coercion. Both agree that the penal system tends to neglect victims, expand state power, and generate political legitimacy rather than genuine justice.

Their agreement becomes even more striking when viewed through the lens of institutional incentives. A penal bureaucracy does not merely administer justice; it sustains a network of police agencies, prosecutors, correctional officers, prison contractors, and public budgets, all of whose continued existence depends on the expansion of penal institutions. Restitution threatens this logic by shifting attention from the state to the victim. A system centered on repairing private harm requires fewer bureaucracies and leaves less room for political theater. From this perspective, incarceration persists not merely because citizens demand punishment, but because governments have institutional incentives to provide it.

René Girard, in Violence and the Sacred (1972), helps explain how punishment operates. Girard argues that societies have always used scapegoats to relieve social tension. In modern times, the criminal becomes that scapegoat, and the prison becomes the altar. As one Mises Institute essay notes, “the real product of the penal system is collective catharsis.” Punishment is not a rational policy, it is a ritual. This is why voters demand harsher penalties even when prisons fail. This is why mass incarceration persists despite its cost and lack of results. Punishment satisfies a symbolic need, not a practical one.

Girard also helps explain why governments find this ritual politically useful. If societies repeatedly seek symbolic victims to restore social cohesion, the state becomes the institution that organizes and legitimizes those sacrifices. Public fear creates demand for punishment; political institutions supply it. Rothbard exposes the institutional side of this relationship, while Girard reveals its anthropological foundation. Together, they show how emotional expectations and bureaucratic incentives reinforce each other, enabling the penal system to expand even when it fails to reduce crime or compensate victims.

This is where Rothbard offers something Wacquant does not: a way out. Restitution replaces the sacrificial logic of punishment with a logic of repair. It shifts the focus from the offender to the victim, closes the moral account rather than leaving it open, and satisfies the need for justice without feeding the bureaucratic machine. In To Serve and Protect (1990), Bruce Benson shows that pre-state legal systems, such as Anglo-Saxon weregild, relied on restitution to prevent feuds and maintain peace. These systems worked because they focused on compensation rather than punishment.

Wacquant advocates “radical penal minimalism,” a model that narrows the scope of punishment while preserving its democratic legitimacy. Rothbard calls for a justice system based on restitution rather than incarceration. Girard calls for an end to sacrificial violence. Benson shows how restitution can be implemented. Becker argues that incarceration is often less economically efficient than restitution, fines, and other alternative sanctions.

Despite their profound philosophical disagreements, all five raise serious doubts about the effectiveness and legitimacy of a prison-centered model of justice. Becker questions its efficiency. Benson presents historical alternatives. Girard exposes its sacrificial logic. Wacquant reveals its bureaucratic expansion. Rothbard offers restitution as a principled alternative.

The penal Leviathan will not disappear through abolitionist slogans or bureaucratic reforms. It will disappear only when justice ceases to be a ritual of punishment and becomes a process of repair. That requires reexamining the assumption that crime should be understood primarily as an offense against the state rather than as an injury to identifiable victims. Once the victim again becomes the central figure in justice, restitution naturally replaces punishment as the primary objective.

As long as governments monopolize punishment, they retain incentives to expand the penal apparatus, regardless of its effectiveness. Restitution reverses that logic. It limits bureaucratic power, restores the victim to the center of justice, and transforms punishment from a political ritual into a genuine process of moral and legal repair. Whether approached through sociology, economics, anthropology, or libertarian political philosophy, the victim – not the state – emerges as the indispensable starting point for any coherent theory of justice.

Soda purchases fell about 13 percent among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries after 10 states restricted purchases of sugary drinks with SNAP funds in 2026, a study found.

SNAP restriction waivers banned non-nutritious items like soda and candy to ensure that taxpayer dollars are directed toward nutritious options that improve health outcomes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated on its website.

The August study from the National Bureau of Economic Research – not yet peer-reviewed – evaluated the immediate effects of SNAP food restriction waivers in 10 states that implemented the bans.

Researchers used a Nielsen consumer dataset of about 5,000 SNAP households from July 2025 to June 2026.

Before the ban, the average SNAP household bought about 185 ounces of soda per month. That’s about 15 cans. The 13 percent drop is about 24 ounces, or two cans less per month.

Purchases of energy drinks also decreased by 4 ounces per household per month.

Interestingly, as Sylvia Xu reports for The Epoch Times, the study found that even households having enough cash to offset the restrictions reduced soda consumption by 18.5 percent, down 40 ounces per month.

When states labeled soda as an unapproved purchase, it acted as a powerful psychological signal, according to the report.

Arkansas shelf tag…

Instead of bypassing the ban with cash, families reconsidered their habits.

The policy changed what they viewed as appropriate foods to buy, leading to a significant drop in overall soda purchases, according to the study.

These findings indicate that simple administrative restrictions can effectively steer dietary choices and potentially improve public health outcomes, the researchers concluded.

Texas shelf tag…

However, it’s not clear how big the impact on sugar consumption will be.

A similar study in 2024 predicted a decline of up to 20 percent in soda purchases when the soda bans went into effect, but also forecast a 7 percent increase in juice consumption.

That would mean an overall decrease of just 7 percent in the intake of sugar from beverages.

Data on the current level of juice consumption by SNAP users is not yet available.

In fiscal year 2025, SNAP distributed $102.6 billion to nearly one in eight Americans, more than 42 million people. That’s about $2,400 per person per year.

Until this year, those funds could be used to purchase nearly all foods except for alcoholic beverages and hot prepared foods.

As of August, 23 states have implemented SNAP restriction waivers and prohibit recipients from purchasing junk food such as beverages and candy.

This is the first time in the program’s history that the Department of Agriculture has granted waivers allowing states to restrict SNAP benefits.

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via Antiwar.com,

An Ecuadorian official confirmed that US Green Berets were engaged in anti-cartel operations. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump formed a coalition, dubbed Shield of the Americas, that was aimed at combating cartels in Latin and South America.

A local official told AFP and UPI that US special forces have been conducting direct operations against suspected cartels in the Esmeraldas province. “We are with the 7th (Special Forces) Group of the US Army. We are working together in the fight against narcoterrorism,” Esmeraldas Provincial governor Juan Jaramillo said last week.

Ecuadorian Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo added that two US warships were operating in the region.

In March, President Donald Trump said that a dozen Latin American nations had enlisted in the Shield of the Americas coalition to fight cartels in the region. Ecuador is a member of the bloc.

That month, the US and Ecuador conducted joint military operations against alleged drug targets. “The operations are a powerful example of the commitment of partners in Latin America and the Caribbean to combat the scourge of narco-terrorism,” U.S. Southern Command said following the raid.

However, The New York Times reported that the target of the operation was a dairy farm, not a drug lab. “The military strike appears to have destroyed a cattle and dairy farm, not a drug trafficking compound, according to interviews with the farm’s owner, four of its workers, human rights lawyers, and residents and leaders in San Martín,” the outlet explains.

The military activity in Ecuador is part of Operation Southern Spear. Trump ordered the Department of War last year to expand military operations in Latin America to curb narcotics trafficking to the US.

The US has conducted dozens of airstrikes against suspected drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean. The operations have killed over 200 people and over 60 vessels.

The White House has asserted that the targeted boats are operated by narco-terrorists attempting to smuggle fentanyl into the US. However, the administration has not offered the American people any evidence to support the claim.

Additionally, some evidence suggests that at least some of the vessels that have been attacked were not involved in narcotics trafficking. The family members of several victims have said their slain relatives were fishermen.

Last month, The Washington Post reported reviewing a DEA assessment that found the strikes on vessels operated by alleged narco-terrorists have not changed the amount or price of cocaine entering the US. US military officials also admitted to Congress that the operations have had no impact on purity.