Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Charlotte Bronte once wrote “I believe that creature is a changeling: she is a perfect cabinet of oddities.”

No quote better captured the chilling curiosity that is Hillary Clinton.

This week, Clinton (without any sign of shame or self-awareness) attacked others for seeking censorship and blacklisting political opponents through government and corporate collaboration. Clinton is one of the most anti-free speech figures in the United States and actively campaigned for the censorship of opponents. Today, my column in the Hill discusses the hypocrisy of many on the left this week after the suspension of late-night host Jimmy Kimmel. However, there is simply no one in the same class as Clinton in hitting hypocrisy’s rock bottom.

This week, Clinton declared: “I think this is a very clear example of using the power of the state to suppress speech. It is a direct government action to try to intimidate employers, organizations, corporations, much of which we’ve already seen, to remove an opponent, even though it’s a comic.”

For many in the free speech community, the statement led us to spit out our morning coffee.

Clinton and her allies have long shown contempt for the intelligence of the voters, often denying facts or flipping positions while denying any inconsistencies. It was a record that produced not only polling as one of the least popular American politicians but also record lows in the public’s view of trustworthiness and authenticity. Clinton’s campaign routinely lied about major issues, including denying to the media that it funded the infamous Steele dossier.

For the record, I have repeatedly criticized Administration statements from recently on free speech and some of the actions taken against critics as threatening to our core values of free speech. This has included threats to prosecute hate speech and flag burning despite countervailing precedent. However, the last person any of us in the free speech community wants to see in this fight is Hillary Clinton.

As I have previously written, Clinton heralded the growing anti-free speech movement and noted that “there are people who are championing it, but it’s been a long and difficult road to getting anything done.”

In my book, I discuss the challenge for anti-free speech champions like Clinton is that it is not easy to convince a free people to give up their freedom.

That is why figures like Clinton are going “old school” and turning to government or corporations to crack down on citizens. One of the lowest moments came after Elon Musk acquired Twitter, promising to restore free speech protections. Clinton called upon European officials to force Elon Musk to censor American citizens under the infamous Digital Services Act (DSA). This is a former democratic presidential nominee calling upon Europeans to push the censorship of Americans.

Clinton praised the anti-free speech efforts in California and New York and called for the rest of the country to replicate the approach of those states.

Clinton added a particularly illuminating line that said the quiet part out loud. This is all about power and the fear that she and others will “lose control” over speech:

“Whether it’s Facebook or Twitter or X or Instagram or TikTok, whatever they are, if they don’t moderate and monitor the content, we lose total control and it’s not just the social and psychological effects it’s real harm, it’s child porn and threats of violence, things that are terribly dangerous.”

Clinton continues to offer a textbook example of the anti-free speech narrative. While seeking sweeping censorship for anything deemed disinformation, Clinton cites specific examples that are already barred under federal law like child porn.

Not surprisingly, when I spoke in Berlin on free speech, Hillary Clinton also spoke to call for greater speech limits to a highly appreciative European audience. She has been a major voice in fostering the government-corporate alliance that carried out massive censorship of political opponents.

As Bronte noted, this “creature is a changeling: she is a perfect cabinet of oddities.” Fortunately, the public has never been deceived by the changeling. They have always seen her opportunistic attacks as a sign of contempt for them as a bunch of chumps. Both Clinton and the media have learned in prior elections that these narratives are falling flat with most Americans outside of the core Democratic base.

There has to be some lingering residue of shame left; some modicum of decency in refraining from such raw hypocrisy at these moments. Yet, we seem to be living in an era of post-shame politics. The only thing missing is lawyer Joseph Welch:

*  *  *

Elon Musk and President Donald Trump were spotted Sunday afternoon at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, for Charlie Kirk’s memorial service. It was their first public appearance together since Musk’s dispute over Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and his criticism of the president regarding Epstein.

The Trump-Musk feud appears to have come to an end – well, at least for now – as any MAGA fracturing this past summer over BBB and Epstein has been conveniently put aside after Kirk’s political assassination nearly two weeks ago at Utah Valley University by a crazed leftist. 

Unity filled the air at State Farm Stadium, with Musk posting “For Charlie,” alongside an image of him and the president sitting in the stands and chatting in what appears to be a civil manner.

For Charlie pic.twitter.com/8092jIt319

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 21, 2025

Late Sunday, the White House posted an image of Trump and Musk on X, signaling that the feud is over for now. 

POTUS x @ElonMusk

For Charlie. pic.twitter.com/Inaf8X81Gy

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 22, 2025

Why this matters is that President Trump and the MAGA movement are beginning to recognize the severity of “civil terrorism” fueled by Democrats in power – from the highest levels of government down to corporate media.

Where did Charlie Kirk’s murderer learn to call conservatives “fascists”?

“Do you think Donald Trump is a fascist?”

Kamala Harris: “Yes, I do. YES, I DO!” pic.twitter.com/RxDjgOYjKY

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 12, 2025

A decade of amplifying dangerous rhetoric by labeling Trump, his supporters, and anyone Democrats disagree with as “fascists,” “Nazis,” and “racists” has contributed to the rise of far-left militancy that has now “planned war against fascists.” 

Democrats appear to have adopted a 1943 Communist directive in their information war against the American people:

The Communist Directive in 1943: “Label them a Nazi or Fascist”

Sounds familiar. pic.twitter.com/cLKTCFl9gI

— American AF 🇺🇸 (@iAnonPatriot) September 18, 2025

Shortly after Kirk’s murder, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller declared war on the radical left. At the same time, President Trump stated that Antifa could soon become a designated terror group. The White House has requested tens of millions of dollars for a security boost. 

Miller last night on the radical left:

Stephen Miller to the radical left who believed they silenced Charlie Kirk:

“You are nothing. You wickedness, you are jealousy, you are hatred. You are NOTHING.”

“You thought you could kill Charlie Kirk? You have made him immortal.”

Absolute FIRE. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/XxzJzGO38E

— Walter Curt (@WCdispatch_) September 21, 2025

Must Reads: 

• “Planning War Against Fascists” – Socialist Rifle Association Boasts 10,000 Members

• Trump Calls For RICO Charges Against Soros Over Violent Protest Support; Gates Foundation Abruptly Severs Ties With Rogue Arabella Advisors

• New Report Reveals Soros’ Open Society Funneled $80 Million To Pro-Terror Groups

• Senior Trump Official Declares War On Far-Left NGOs Sowing Chaos Nationwide

• White House Plans Security Boost On Civil Terrorism Fears As FBI Investigates Revolutionary Leftist Groups In Kirk Assassination

• Trump Supports Designating Antifa A Terrorist Organization

• FBI’s ‘Armed Queers’ Probe Just The Start – Lawmakers Urge Treasury To Freeze China-Linked Billionaire’s NGO Empire

• Another Week Of Madness: The Left’s Reaction To Kirk’s Assassination

One of the Marxist groups the FBI is investigating in the Kirk assassination is Armed Queers of Salt Lake City.

Armed Queers had an obsession with “No Kings” protest and the 50501 movement …

And who funded No Kings? As per Schweizer’s reporting:

“New Schweizer team investigation reveals how ‘No Kings’ and its partners bagged $114.8 million from the Arabella dark money network and how these professional protest organizations use tax dollars as a force multiplier.”

As we noted, citing a recent NYT report, the Gates Foundation was a major donor for Arabella Advisors and abruptly cut ties this past summer.

The White House needs to establish an urgent task force to counter civil terrorism threats unleashed by radical leftist groups supported by what appears to be a dark-money-funded NGO network. If MAGA – or, say, Trump and Musk can unite on one issue, it’s dismantling these leftist NGOs that sow chaos nationwide and attempt to subvert the nation with a Marxist takeover, aided by foreign actors. Musk remembers that these leftist groups firebombed his Tesla showrooms and tarnished the brand.

We’ll end with Charlie.

Charlie Kirk on Elon Musk and Trump:

“I actually think they are going to reconcile at some point because, deep down, they both want the same thing…..Both of these men deserve great credit for their contributions to help save civilization.”

The reconciliation appears to be… pic.twitter.com/qRWDrNOjSw

— Green Lives Matter (@Ultrafrog17) September 21, 2025

. . . 

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

British Rock singer Morrissey has been forced to cancel two scheduled US shows owing to what have been described as ‘credible’ threats to assassinate him onstage.

The NY Post reports, “The canceled concerts were set for Friday at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Conn., and Saturday at Boston’s MGM Music Hall at Fenway. Both venues said refunds would be issued.“

A post on Morrissey’s official social media pages reads “In recent days, there has been a credible threat on Morrissey’s life,” adding that “Out of an abundance of caution for the safety of both the artist and band’, the two dates were pulled.”

‘Credible’ Morrissey assassination threat prompts rocker to cancel Boston, Connecticut shows https://t.co/9XopaoBAAp pic.twitter.com/y2KFj12Vqj

— New York Post (@nypost) September 20, 2025

The report also notes that a threat to kill Morrissey was also made by a deranged leftist on Bluesky prior to the singer’s CityFolk appearance in Ottawa.

Police arrested a 26-year old man on Sept. 12 and charged him with uttering threats to cause death or bodily harm, later releasing him on $5,000 bail.

This serves as yet another example of the rise of ‘assassination culture’ among leftist extremists.

Morrissey has become a pariah in the music industry establishment due to his ‘politically incorrect’ opinions confronting the conformist creed of the bed-wetting mob.

For a time, the former Smiths frontman, who maintains a loyal hardcore fanbase, couldn’t find a record deal due to the blisteringly honest themes of his work, which including a whole album condemning the May 2017 Manchester Arena bombing by Islamic jihadist Salman Abedi, which claimed the lives of 23 people and injured 800, many of them children.

As we have previously highlighted, the Manchester Arena bombing is a harrowing example of how political correctness literally kills.

Suicide bomber Abedi was rescued as a ‘refugee’ by the British Royal Navy following the overthrow of Colonel Gadaffi in Libya.

On the night of the Manchester Arena bombing, numerous concertgoers and security guards saw Abedi acting suspiciously but were either ignored or didn’t report the terrorist’s alarming behaviour for fear of being labeled “racist.”

The same label that has made Morrissey public enemy number one for an industry that reacts to honesty, authenticity and integrity in music like a vampire reacts to sunlight.

Indie rock icon Morrissey points to images of Klaus Schwab, Fauci and Bill Gates, singing “educated criminals work within the law.” This is why he is shunned by the industry establishment. He refuses to conform like the other “lock-jawed pop-stars” Report: https://t.co/5hEL5MhlkB pic.twitter.com/jLchMGLMUF

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 30, 2024

After Morrissey had the temerity to point out the blindingly obvious, that diversity is not a strength, BMG, which is owned by Sony Corporation, announced they would be dropping Morrissey due to “new plans for ‘diversity” that didn’t include him.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

In the past Israel relied on its weapons superiority to dissuade potential attacks from neighbors, but that gap is obviously narrowing, as the massive Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and other cities demonstrated last June. Lessons from Ukraine should also be taken into account, as Israeli armor might not have the same battlefield presence it once did if cheap drones are so effective in destroying vastly more expensive tanks.  

While the superior-armed IDF military has clearly been pushing forward in Gaza, as the war is soon to reach the two-year mark, Hamas has all the while released a steady stream of battlefield videos showing its militants engaged in successful ambushes. Large IDF tanks have been blown up often by militants sneaking up and placing IEDs directly on them.

The fact that Israel has since Oct.7 been engaging hostile groups from the Houthis of Yemen, to the Iranians, to Hezbollah in Lebanon – has meant a severe strain on public and government coffers. Israel has also frequently bombed Syria, as it did back in the days of Assad, and is now occupying parts of the country’s south, well beyond the Golan Heights. All of this also requires more manpower, and steady updates regarding weapons tech, parts, and mechanical upkeep.

Now there are new risks and mounting costs involved, as reservists continued to be called up in the thousands, connected to the effort to fully take over Gaza City – the Strip’s most populous location.

New Monday reporting in Bloomberg says that “Israel’s push to take over Gaza City is expected to add 25 billion shekels ($7.5 billion) to the war bill through the end of the year, according to an Israeli government official.”

“The added costs — equivalent to more than 1% of Israel’s gross domestic product — will pile onto the 204-billion-shekel military tally for the almost two-year war in Gaza, which spread to Lebanon, Iran, Syria and Yemen,” the report continues. That’s over $60 billion total.

Additionally the report notes that “Reservists’ salaries, ammunition and missile interceptors make up the bulk of spending, the official said on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters that haven’t been made public.”

There are other indirect factors putting an immense strain on funding the war effort, amid Israel’s increased global isolation, as CNN writes:

Netanyahu, meanwhile, is calling on Israel’s arms makers to step up their readiness. “We will need to strengthen our independent weapons industries so that we have munitions independence, a defense industrial economy, and the industrial capability to produce them,” he said last Monday, speaking at a finance ministry conference.

Israel and its arms makers have long been viewed as producing cutting-edge weapons technology, and those weapons have been sold to countries around the world. But as international criticism of the war in Gaza grows, Israel risks losing its position in some of those markets.

But the ‘special relationship’ with Washington will once again form the basis of bailing Israel out, and the Trump White House is already pushing for Congress to approve a nearly $6 billion arms deal with Israel.

The proposed package includes 30 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters valued at $3.8 billion, which would nearly double Israel’s current fleet, as well as 3,250 infantry fighting vehicles – at $1.9 billion.

Trump is said to be deeply frustrated with Prime Minister Netanyahu over the risky Doha operation targeting Hamas leaders earlier this month, but certainly this public stance doesn’t square with promise of $6 billion more in weapons. It’s yet another example of watch what Trump does and not what he says.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that European security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine must include a readiness to fight Russia, The Guardian reported over the weekend.

When asked if European troops would be willing to engage with Russia militarily if it attacked Ukraine after a future peace deal, Stubb said, “That is the idea of security guarantees by definition.”

“Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent and that deterrent has to be plausible, and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong. And that means also strategic communication, so we’re not making security guarantees into the air, but we’re making real security guarantees and Russia knows that,” the Finnish leader added.

Finland, the UK, France, and other European countries have continued to push for a European troop deployment to Ukraine despite strong objections from Moscow and the risk of nuclear war if the troops end up clashing with Russian forces.

Stubb said that it didn’t matter if Russia was against the proposed security guarantees:

“Russia has absolutely no say in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state … So for me it’s not an issue will Russia agree or not. Of course they won’t, but that’s not the point,” Stubb said.

Stubb, who took office in 2024, was in the US last month and joined several other European leaders in an Oval Office meeting with President Trump to discuss potential security guarantees for Ukraine.

After the meeting, Trump suggested that he would be willing to back European troops on the ground in Ukraine with air power.

The insistence on a European troop deployment to Ukraine has made a peace deal unlikely, as Moscow has made clear that it’s willing to continue the war until it reaches its goals.

Weeks ago, Finland’s foreign minister provocatively spoke of Russia as a “cancer”…

Disturbing and fanatic language from Finland’s foreign minister: It’s time to “cure the cancer” of Russia pic.twitter.com/tcSVhFuELn

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) September 1, 2025

As negotiations have faltered, the US and its allies have been working to pour more weapons into the proxy war under a new NATO initiative that involves the US’s allies paying for American military equipment that will be sent to Ukraine.

Three weeks ago, just as gold finally break out above its recent resistance level, we warned readers that we are about to see a far more powerful thrust higher once gold ETFs – which had been lagging badly – started chasing.

Think the move in gold is notable? Just wait until the ETFs start chasing pic.twitter.com/SoOXEd2Hdz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2025

Fast forward to today when that’s precisely what happened, and as Bloomberg writes this morning, gold has powered to a fresh record high “after flows into exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has further to run.” It wasn’t just gold: silver also rose, with year-to-date gains topping 50%.

Gold was last trading at a new all time high of $3,737, building on a run of five weekly gains and extremely overbought, as the Fed cut rates and flagged further easing through to year-end.

On Friday, bullion-backed ETFs surged 0.9%, the most in percentage terms since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gold – the year’s best performing asset class – has been on a relentless tear higher amid a broad confluence of supportive factors, most notably the Fed’s decision to restart policy easing. Additionally, central banks continuing to bolster their reserve holdings, and lingering geopolitical tensions, have provided a sustained bid for havens. Major banks including Goldman Sachs have flagged their expectations for further gains, with Deutsche Bank most recently lifting its gold forecast to $4000.

“Technicals are looking pretty strong, and expectations are rising for deeper rate cuts,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. In silver, “resistance at $43 an ounce was broken, while gold powered through $3,708 an ounce — suggesting prices will continue to push higher.”

“The gold price was overbought after climbing by more than 10% in the last five weeks,” analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals GmbH & Co KG said on Monday. “That raises the chance of a period of consolidation so the price could trade sideways to lower for a while.” Alas, gold decided it didn’t need to consolidate and has instead moved straight up. 

Silver rallied harder than gold on Monday, with some speculating that a gamma squeeze in silver options is starting to fomd. The daily volume of IShares Silver Trust options surged to 1.2 million on Friday – the highest since April 2024, with call options spiking. 

In a note published this morning from UBS’ S&T team, they write that “while it was technically New York Platinum week, gold took the gold as New York was flooded with market participants for every corner of the globe and one thing was clear, the bullish sentiment is here to stay. The demand is real and was confirmed when your strategist’s weeklong schedule fills up in a matter of hours and goes right until 17:00 New York on Friday, when in the past nobody wanted to meet on a Friday.”

As UBS’s Christine Gilfillan writes, “consensus is, gold has not seen the highs, proven yet again on Monday. There wasn’t one meeting where someone was willing to short this market. In most meetings, the level of investment has not been reached and many continue to look for a pullback for entry. The majority are looking for $4000.”

The UBS trades goes on to note that “shallow and short-lived pullbacks are frustrating during this climb higher, physical demand is absent and replaced with investor and retail demand while the Wealth Management community is actively exploring vaulting opportunities.” Meanwhile, sellers or light profit-taking that may have been seen post the Fed have taken a step back, now allowing this bull market to march on. As for the white metals, consensus was favorable as well with silver taking the lead even with its recent positive performance.

The biggest vendor financing circle jerk in world history got its latest thrust just after 12pm ET when Nvidia announced (with a CNBC film crew ready to interview Sam Altman and Jensen Huang the moment the press release hit) that it will invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI to support the building of new data centers and the infrastructure needed to power artificial intelligence workloads.

The investment is intended to help OpenAI build data centers with a capacity of 10 gigawatts of power using Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to train and deploy OpenAI’s models. 

Translation: tomorrow OpenAI will announce it will purchase $99 billion in equipment from Nvidia (while renting $1 billion in data center racks). Then one day later Nvidia will double down in its investment in OpenAI, and so on, for as long as the circle jerk keeps lifting all the AI boats floating on a sea of…er… liquidity. 

The two signed a letter of intent for a strategic deal, Nvidia said Monday in a statement. 

Nvidia will receive equity in OpenAI in the deal, according to people familiar with the arrangement. The investment will be provided in stages with the first $10 billion coming when the first gigawatt of computing power is deployed, the people said, who asked not to be identified because the talks were private.

“To support this deployment including data center and power capacity, Nvidia intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new Nvidia systems are deployed,” the company said in the statement.

“Everything starts with compute,” OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said in the statement. “Compute infrastructure will be the basis for the economy of the future, and we will utilize what we’re building with Nvidia to both create new AI breakthroughs and empower people and businesses with them at scale.”

Nvidia has been using its balance sheet to make sure the company’s gear remains at the heart of the buildout of AI systems, especially at a time when China is dangerously close to releasing chip that have the same capabilities but are 90% cheaper. Keeping OpenAI, which is diving into hardware including its own chips, as a major customer may help the chipmaker cement that position as the industry looks at rivals’ components. Last week, Nvidia purchased $5 billion in Intel equity to cement its dekstop PC presence as well. 

Nvidia and OpenAI didn’t provide details on its investment in OpenAI or when it will occur. Because of course it’s easier to ramp stocks on vague promises of massive 12-digit numbers than actually describing where the funds will go. The companies said they “look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks.”

With NVDA stock ominously in the red today and threatening to burst the AI bubble, the press release came strategically at just the right time to push NVDA stock up 4% and just shy of all time highs… 

… and since there is virtually no spare cash flow available to fund this latest pipe dream, and all the funding will need to come from private debt issuers, we wanted to bring you a snapshot of where the Blackstone Secured Credit fund was trading today.

Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro is desperately seeking to cool tensions with the United States, after President Trump has approved of no less than three major military strikes on alleged drug boats which departed Venezuela, and were traversing the South Caribbean. 

The letter was made public on Telegram by Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. In it Maduro vehemently denies being involved in narco-trafficking, calling the allegations “fake news, propagated through various media channels.“ The Venezuelan president further offers to engage in “a direct and frank conversation with your special envoy” – in reference to Richard Grenell, who hasn’t directly commented.

The letter was actually issued four days after the initial September 2nd US strike which killed 11 Venezuelans on a boat the US said was being used to transport drugs to the US. But it was only publicly disclosed on Sunday. More have died since then.

Given last week’s two additional strikes under similar circumstances, it seems the Trump White House did not believe Maduro’s assertions of not being involved in drug trafficking.

The letter further included Maduro explaining that he is submitting to the Trump administration “compelling data on drug production and drug trafficking … that demonstrates that Venezuela is a territory free of drug production.”

The top-level communication also featured the following claims by Maduro:

“According to UN data, only 5% of the drugs originating in Colombia transit through Venezuela.”

“This year alone, we have neutralized more than 70% of that small percentage attempting to cross our more than 2,200-kilometer border with Colombia; this is a very important figure.”

“These figures confirm Venezuela’s impeccable record in the fight against international drug trafficking, a fact recognized by all relevant international institutions and agencies.”

“I respectfully invite you, President, to promote peace through constructive dialogue and mutual understanding throughout the hemisphere,” Maduro added.

He also hailed his military and policing efforts, saying that Venezuela has destroyed over 400 aircraft linked to drug smuggling of late, and that this can be demonstrated directly to special envoy Grenell. Maduro said they should meet, “so that we can overcome media noise and fake news.”

Blackwater founder and Trump crony Erik Prince gave the order last year to raise the bounty on Maduro to $100 million, promising “magic”

His mafia backs Maria Corina Machado, who almost certainly promised to sell them Venezuela’s resources once she’s installed through force pic.twitter.com/LTBselwLrn

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 3, 2025

President Trump has yet to confirm or deny whether he had received the letter, only responding to a reporter’s question on the matter by saying “We’ll see what happens with Venezuela.”

Still, Maduro has warned that his country will defend itself against US “aggression”. His defense minister has also called what’s been happening off Venezuela’s coast “an undeclared war”.

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Taking The Average

There is an old joke in economics that if you put your feet in the oven and your head in the freezer you are, on average, at a pleasant temperature. More and more we see this dynamic in financial markets where – like deer in the headlights – wildly binary outcomes are dealt with by taking probability weighted averages of potential future states of the world. This produces prices that represent the least likely of all scenarios: a pleasant middle ground between polar extremes.

We see this effect everywhere. Changes in trade, geopolitics, capital markets, climate and demographics mean that inflation might be very high in the future – or very low. So let’s take the average and assume that inflation averages 2%. Likewise, policy rates may need to be very low to finance new investment in energy, AI, semiconductor manufacturing, military hardware, housing and infrastructure – or very high to keep inflation in check. Or maybe inflation targeting as a concept is past its sell-by date, and everything we know about how monetary policy is supposed to work is about to change as politically-favoured sectors get low rates while others get high?

Of course, the reality is that ‘low-for-some-high-for-others’ interest rates are already happening, both outside the West and in, but perhaps what we have seen so far is just a prelude of things to come as the manifold challenges faced by society raises the temptation of price discrimination and central planning?

A suggestion of this arrived last week with the publication of the Fed’s updated dot plot. The median dot suggests two more cuts to the Fed Funds rate this year, and one next year. However, an outlier dot (belonging to Stephen Miran) says 100bps worth of cuts remaining in 2025. That’s a material departure from the consensus, with attendant implications for asset prices and maybe even for the broader question of how production is organized inside the USA.

With prices of assets highly dependent on the state of the world, the theory goes that our efficient financial markets construct complete menus of Arrow securities that payout in every potential state. Prices of those securities adjust to reflect judged probabilities of scenarios occurring. The time-boundedness of events is reflected through changes in the time value of money, which is interest rates.

The theory is elegant, but does it line up with what we are seeing in reality? Perhaps it does if you are looking at gold prices making new all-time-highs and relate that to central banks de-emphasising inflation dynamics, or focusing too-intently on a narrow conception of consumer inflation that excludes the most costly thing that people want to consume: houses. Perhaps it does if you look at farmland trading at prices implying negative carry and relate that back to rising geopolitical tensions or ideas of commodity prices permanently rebasing at higher levels. Perhaps it does if you look at the Crump & Moench term premium graph and relate that back to deteriorating national fiscal positions, pressure on the Dollar and questions about its status as a global reserve currency.

But there are confounding signs, too. Why does the VIX index think it’s 1996? And why are lawyers and consultants paid more than plumbers, or welders, or carpenters? And is the probability of a state of the world where AI makes those practical skills more valuable than white-collar skills rising? NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang seems to think so, but to the extent that labor force planning occurs in the West it still emphasizes university education.

To state the obvious, the polarization trend is evident in political circles as well. Britain, Canada and Australia have today recognized a Palestinian state at the United Nations, upsetting traditional allies Israel and the United States with the former vowing reprisals in due course and Republican politicians in the latter arguing in favor of the same. Britain, Canada and Australia all currently have centre-left governments, and all have centre-right opposition parties who are critical of the decision – characterizing it as rewarding the use of violence as a means of achieving political objectives. Is there a middle ground between these viewpoints? Is an assumption of social cohesion ‘in the price’? Will the USA allow its allies to have their cake and eat it too? If not, how might that look?

The Trump administration amped-up its nationalistic labor market approach by imposing a $100k annual fee on companies applying for new H-1B visas to bring skilled workers into the country. The FT says the cost to US employers could be $14bn. The move also sets up further potential misgivings between the USA and India, which is the country of origin for more than 70% of H-1B visa holders.

In a similar vein, UK Reform party leader Nigel Farage says that a Reform government would be prepared to deport up to 600,000 migrants over the course of five years. Reform is currently leading in UK polls, so would have to be an odds-on chance to form government. Are UK gilt yields high enough yet? Does it make sense that Cable is up 7.6% YTD?

Needless to say, these are not business as usual moves. How to account for the rising probability of these events – or even more extreme events – occurring? Imagination is required to conceive of how the world might look in the future, because if the last 15 years have taught us anything its that the past is a foreign country. The assumption of mean reversion is not a favored strategy.

Earlier today, shares of Porsche AG in Germany plunged the most on record after the struggling sports car maker announced it would scale back its electric vehicle (EV) rollout. Porsche scrapped plans for a future battery-powered luxury SUV and shifted focus back to petrol-powered engines and hybrid models. This move will result in a $2.1 billion hit to operating profit and force both Porsche and its parent, Volkswagen AG, to revise their full-year forecasts.

“Markets are led lower by Autos, STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts Index [SXAP] is down 2.8%, following the two profit warnings from Porsche and Volkswagen after the close on Friday. Porsche AG is down 7.8% and Volkswagen is down 8%,” UBS analyst Marisa Vethanayagam wrote in a client update earlier. 

Friday’s profit warning marked the fourth time this year that Porsche cut guidance, with shares down 28% year-to-date. The slump has pushed the automaker so low that it is now set to be removed from the DAX, Germany’s benchmark index.

Porsche’s mounting troubles – compounded by muted EV sales in key markets and intensifying competition from Chinese automakers – are increasingly weighing on its parent, Volkswagen. On Friday, Volkswagen warned it would take a $3.5 billion non-cash impairment tied to Porsche’s hit to operating profit and lowered its forecast for operating return on sales this year to 2% to 3%, down from 5%. 

Besides Porsche and Volkswagen, other European peers, such as Stellantis NV and Renault SA, are also struggling with dismal EV demand after they invested billions of dollars in the technology. 

Industry-wide across the continent, the MSCI Europe Autos Index is down 6% year-to-date, hovering on a fine line of support around 160 euros. 

Here’s commentary from top Wall Street research desks on Porsche scaling back its EV unit, resulting in a guidance cut and dragging down peers across the continent (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (Sector perform, PT EU43)

• Revisions underline significant near-term pressures, with EV platform delays and a pivot toward hybrids and combustion drivetrains signaling challenges in electrification strategy, analyst Tom Narayan writes

• Updated 2025 guidance shows sharp profitability deterioration

• Medium-term targets at the lower end of historical profitability further raise concerns about Porsche’s ability to compete effectively in the premium EV and luxury space amid intensifying competition

Jefferies (hold, PT EU40)

• Re-basing of guidance may be the last, but leaves the turnaround a drawn-out affair with product cycle and brand challenges, according to analyst Philippe Houchois

• Besides Porsche impact, VW’s guidance delays cash conversion again

• Cuts Porsche price target to €40 from €47

Citi (buy, PT EU58)

• Exceptional charges take FY25 Ebit margin guidance down from 5%-7% to between 0% and 2%, a superficial and unacceptable level of margin for the Porsche brand, analyst Harald Hendrikse writes

• Management reiterated this would be the last such re- statement, but investors have heard this story before and will remain skeptical until Porsche stops delivering negative surprises

• Shares likely to remain subdued as they have been

Matthias Schmidt, an independent auto analyst based near Hamburg, told Bloomberg that auto buyers “are putting little value on luxury electric cars,” adding, “Porsche has now realized this and is jumping back into high-margin combustion-engine models.”

Related: 

• US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets

• Nearly Half Of US EV Drivers Consider Switching Back To Gas Vehicles: McKinsey Study

Not surprising…

. . .