The on-and-off U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the flipping U.S. position regarding India’s oil purchases from Russia highlight the double standards of the Western nations, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said on Friday.
India turned en masse to Russian oil in 2022, when the U.S. and the EU imposed sanctions on Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, India is a major buyer of Russia’s crude and Russia is India’s single-largest oil supplier.
“At that time, the US specifically asked India to buy Russian oil to stabilize the oil market,” Jaishankar was quoted as saying at an event in Finland, referring to the situation on the market in 2022.
India buys oil based on price and availability, the foreign minister said in response to reporters’ remarks that India is “too sympathetic to Russia” and “too willing to buy oil from Russia”.
“Circumstances pushed us in a certain direction,” NDTV World quoted Jaishankar as saying.
The U.S. lifted sanctions on Russian oil this year after the Iran war pushed oil prices well above $100 per barrel in April, after having slapped tariffs on India for buying Russian crude.
“Let’s not pretend there’s some great principle involved here. I don’t think making this about sanctimony is really warranted,” the Indian minister said.
In the current supply crisis, Indian refiners have secured crude supply at least through August as they boost purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Africa, and Brazil.
As supply from the Middle East crashes, India is buying growing volumes of crude from West African producers Nigeria and Angola, as well as from South American producers Brazil and Venezuela.
India is now also the key importer of currently de-sanctioned Russian crude on water. Russia has remained India’s top crude supplier in the past two months, thanks to the waivers from the U.S., the same country that was insisting early this year that India slash purchases of Russian oil.
DOE Declares Southeast Grid Emergency As Sweltering Heat Boosts AC Demand
As the U.S. men’s national soccer team kicks off its first match against Paraguay in Southern California on Friday night, large swaths of the country are trapped in what feels like a wet sauna, with dangerous heat and humidity forcing households to crank up their air conditioning and straining power grids from the Southeast to the Northeast.
On Thursday, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order to mitigate blackout risks across the Carolinas amid extreme heat that threatens to sharply increase power demand.
The order, issued under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, allows Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress to run certain generating units at maximum output.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated, “Maintaining affordable, reliable, and secure power in the Duke Energy service territory is non-negotiable.”
“The previous administration’s energy subtraction policies weakened the grid, leaving Americans more vulnerable during events like this. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we are reversing those failures and using every available tool ensuring Americans in the Carolinas’ have continued access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy to power and cool their homes,” Wright said.
⚠️🔥 One day left of the oppressively hot and humid conditions. A few severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening, but not everyone will get a storm. It will turn much less humid for Saturday, but high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to near 90°. pic.twitter.com/pi6sJDUwKp
Maximum temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, especially around Washington, D.C., have ranged from the 80s to the 90s, reaching as high as 95°F on Thursday. Some relief is expected this weekend, but temperatures are forecast to rebound next week as heat builds back into the region.
“It’s super humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but relief is coming by Saturday,” Meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X.
It’s super humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but relief is coming by Saturday!
After a brief spike in humidity on Sunday, much more comfortable conditions will arrive early next week. pic.twitter.com/ZN4ilGdMuv
Bloomberg noted that grid stress materialized late Thursday, with PJM real-time power prices rising above $1,300 per megawatt-hour as sweltering heat lingered across the Mid-Atlantic. New York’s grid operator prepared to activate emergency demand response, while New England’s grid operator declared abnormal conditions as heat indices approached 100°F.
US SPOT POWER PRICES REACH RECORD HIGH OVER $1,000 PER MWH AT PJM WEST HUB IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND
we are about to have a very shrill discussion about data center power use
We have seen four-digit territory before. As we covered in April when PJM prices shattered $1,000/MWh after first running during the January freeze to $2,300+, the same structural weakness keeps reappearing. Demand surges, variable resources drop off, and the system leans on whatever thermal capacity can still run.
It is the direct consequence of a generation mix that has shed firm, dispatchable megawatts faster than it has replaced them with anything that actually shows up when the forecast is wrong and the temperature is not.
The blackout in Spain is a phenomenal example of when this is taken to the extreme. And based on some recent warnings from ERCOT, Texas could be the next example.
When push comes to shove on the electric grid, it’s not the renewables that are there to help…
Sleep tight America. We got this. Thousands of coal miners, truck drivers, railroaders, river boat workers and power plant employees will make sure that you stay warm and safe on a cold winter night. Fuel Satisfaction. Affordable Power. Grid Reliability. All from American Coal. pic.twitter.com/io0dzRD6vu
Renewables and batteries help at the margin on good days. They do not solve the evening ramp or multi-day heat dome when every household and every server farm is pulling maximum power. The emergency waiver for Duke is the quiet admission that the current fleet cannot carry the load without violating the operating permits it was given.
Nuclear is the obvious technology that could have filled this gap with carbon-free, always-available capacity. A fleet of new reactors sited years ago would be delivering gigawatts of firm power right now without anyone needing to waive emissions rules or beg demand response programs to shed load.
Instead, the United States has spent the better part of four decades adding almost no new nuclear capacity at commercial scale. As we have documented repeatedly, including in our coverage of the NRC’s new fast-track permitting framework promising 6–12 month construction permit timelines, the regulatory environment has improved dramatically under the current administration. Yet the shovels in the dirt remain conspicuously absent for most projects.
Meanwhile…
NHC expanding cone ( though still minor) to the concern I have been showing for a couple of days now pic.twitter.com/rYhTRvtpvI
— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) June 12, 2026
On watch for tropical activity in the Gulf of America.
Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has retracted intelligence community reports on mysterious health problems known as Havana Syndrome, according to a memorandum released on June 11.
Gabbard found that the intelligence community assessments of the anomalous health incidents, released in 2023 and 2025, failed to meet the community’s analytic standards.
That included selectively excluding intelligence and evidence that did not support the conclusions and relying on an “ethically flawed medical study without noting methodological critiques,” Gabbard’s office said in the memo, sent to members of Congress.
The 2023 assessment concluded it was very unlikely that a foreign adversary was behind the incidents, which have impacted staffers in countries such as Cuba and China.
The updated assessment released in 2025 said most intelligence agencies still held it was very unlikely an enemy was responsible for the syndrome, but two components judged there was a “roughly even chance” that a foreign actor had used a novel weapon to target Americans, or had developed such a weapon.
Gabbard’s team said future assessments on the matter would adhere to “rigorous ethical standards incorporating all available intelligence sources and engaging a broad range of experts from agencies including the CIA.”
Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), the former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence CIA Subcommittee, who has criticized the government reports, praised the new development.
“The assessment was deliberately manufactured and used to discredit some of our nation’s bravest and impede their access to medical care. As was the case with other high-visibility intelligence assessments, it fell far short of analytic integrity standards,” Crawford wrote in a post on X.
He added that the retractions were “a glimmer of hope for our nation’s intelligence officers, service members, and diplomats stationed around the world who have defended this country in austere locations and subsequently had the nation they served turn its back on them.”
The subcommittee said in a 2024 report that it was increasingly likely that a foreign adversary was behind some number of the reported health problems, and that the 2023 assessment was developed “in a manner inconsistent with analytic integrity and thoroughness.”
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2020 that the most likely mechanism behind the incidents was directed, pulsed radio-frequency energy, citing symptoms people have described, such as perceptual dizziness.
Government employees reporting the problems have had difficulty obtaining treatment, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in July 2024, recommending that the military develop written guidance and create a plan to rectify those difficulties.
Gabbard said last month that she is resigning from her position as the director of national security, citing her husband’s recent cancer diagnosis.
President Donald Trump said on June 11 that he is nominating Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and a former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, as director of national intelligence.
The job oversees the coordination of 18 intelligence agencies.
Kuwait appears to have joined a growing bunch of Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that have moved to ship energy cargoes in dark mode through the Strait of Hormuz.
The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier Gas Umm Al Rowaisat, which is owned by the national Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, has passed through the Strait in recent days, then transferred the cargo onto another ship which is currently en route to an Indian port, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Thursday.
The Gas Umm Al Rowaisat loaded LPG in May in the Gulf, and then switched off its AIS positioning, before reappearing close to the Indian coast this weekend, according to the data.
This is the latest instance of a tanker going dark as it moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE, Iraq, and other Gulf producers have increased shipments of oil, LNG, and LPG on tankers in dark mode in recent weeks.
Since the war began on February 28, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by 90% to 95% compared to pre-war levels, leaving the market about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) short of crude and fuel supply that was previously freely flowing to buyers.
Some oil cargoes continue to trickle through the critical chokepoint, but under increasingly opaque operating conditions, complicating the tracking of oil and gas flows and obscuring the visibility of how much energy supply actually reaches buyers these days.
More vessels are leaving the region after passing the Strait of Hormuz in a dark mode with transponders switched off, and those entering the Persian Gulf to load cargoes are increasingly doing the same.
The dark-mode tactics, once the feature of Iran-linked vessels aiming to skirt sanctions, are now the norm for the majority of commercial traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, energy flow-tracking firms say.
Blackrock’s Private Credit Fund Gates Investors Again After Redemption Requests Surge
The market may be in full-blown face-ripping bubble mode, and software stocks are now gripped in by a category 5 gamma squeeze hurricane, but not even that is helping the ongoing debacle that is private credit.
One week after Cliffwater’s Private Credit fund gated investors for a second straight quarter, and days after Blackstone also gated investors in its private credit fund for the first time (recall during Q1, the fund allowed investors to redeem a record 7.9% after tapping senior executives to help finance the withdrawals with hundreds of millions of their own cash, but when faced with an even bigger flood of redemptions in Q2 it gave up and decided to join the gate parade), BlackRock capped redemptions from its flagship private credit fund for the second straight quarter after investors sought to pull about 13%, a sign that shareholders remain extremely nervous about the health of the $1.8 trillion private credit market.
Blackrock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund, known as HLEND, said it would allow only 5% redemptions, according to a filing Friday. The request for 13.3% was about 50% higher than the prior quarter when shareholders asked to redeem 9.3% of their shares.
So far this quarter we have seen an acceleration in redemption requests as private credit investors clearly are concerned about their liquidity despite the raging bull market in all other asset classes.
“This liquidity feature is critical to HLEND’s ability to provide its investors with a premium return to public credit markets,” the firm said in a letter to investors. “This profile is further bolstered by continued subscriptions and distribution reinvestment, which together are expected to more than fully offset repurchases during the first six months of 2026.”
As Bloomberg reminds us, HLEND’s decision to cap redemptions in the previous quarter was the first major instance of a private credit manager taking action to enforce the limit and manage liquidity since concerns over underwriting standards and exposure to software businesses vulnerable to AI disruption bubbled to the surface early in the year.
The move was a contrast to its top rivals including Blackstone, which had gone to great lengths to satisfy investor demands for cash. But this quarter, Blackstone also enforced the 5% limit on its flagship private credit fund after investors asked to redeem even more money than in the prior period.
Indeed, redemption requests are set to increase across the industry as investors redouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted. And there’s persistent concerns about the credit cycle turning, with industry leaders warning of a rise in defaults as artificial intelligence continues to disrupt businesses and borrowings from the era of ultra-low rates comes due.
HLEND has produced a 10.2% annualized total return since it was formed, the letter said, which is cold comfort to those investors who are hoping to redeem their profits and instead receive a gating notification.
Space stocks are getting hammered as “sell the proxies, buy the leader” emerges:
$SPCE -24%
$ASTS -11%
$VOYG -10%
$LUNR -10%
$FLY -9%
$RDW -9%
$RKLB -8%
$BKSY -8%
$PL -7%
$SATS -6%
Wall Street Goes SPCX Bull
Wolfe Research analyst Myles Walton initiates an “Outperform” rating for SPCX with a $175 price target:
SpaceX turned a competitive moat into an ocean of opportunity that we don’t see others crossing. Bringing (internal) cost of launch to near-zero alongside a willingness to push boundaries of scale support out-of-this-world near-term valuation. Initiate Outperform/$175 PT
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiates a “Buy” rating on SPCX with a $190 price target:
We believe SPCX intends to converge communications and cloud/AI using space- based infrastructure. We see potential for SPCX to leverage terrestrial compute expertise as a bridge (and possible back-up plan) to enable key scale and cost advantages. We see it as the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent. We note significant regulatory, technology, execution, keyman and investor expectation risks remain and that thermal management of chips for space applications in space within four years appears challenging. However, its space infrastructure appears structurally advantaged. We note terrestrial DC capabilities include highest velocity/lowest cost DCs (Colossus) which combined with V3s and Cursor will drive 2027-30E revenues. We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating/$190 PT at the IPO price of $135.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives:
We also believe the SpaceX anticipation has caused some added volatility in the market especially in the tech sector as traders/investors anticipate the ripple impact of this historical IPO. Overall, SpaceX going public is an important moment for the broader tech sector in our view as this AI Revolution and data takes this next step forward
. . .
We still Expect Tesla and SpaceX to Merge in 2027 Post-IPO.
Bloomberg Intelligence ESG analyst Rob Du Boff:
“Based on the indicated opening of $168.75 a share, SpaceX would get a weighting of 0.14% in the Russell 1000 and 0.92% in the Nasdaq 100 in a few weeks. That implies $6.6 billion in forced buying from funds tied to those indexes”
Huatai Research analyst LI Yujie:
Low free float + index buying to underpin tight near-term S/D after listing SpaceX’s IPO is expected to become one of the largest listings in US stock market history. Potential passive buying could exceed USD10bn. After the offering, total market cap is expected to be c.USD1.77tn. Initial free-float market cap is expected to be c.USD75.0-86.3bn, implying a float ratio of only c.4.25%-4.86%. Tradable shares may be relatively limited in the early listing period. Given the company’s large market cap and Nasdaq listing venue, SpaceX could be included relatively quickly in major indices such as the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq-100, CRSP, Russell, and MSCI after listing. This would bring near-term passive allocation demand. Based on the size of verifiable index products, potential passive buying is estimated at c.USD9.1-11.3bn. If we further include extended market indices and broader passive funds, the upper end of the range could be revised up to USD14.0-16.0bn. Overall, the market impact in the early stage of SpaceX’s listing may not simply come from the liquidity siphon of IPO fundraising. It is more likely to appear as near-term supply-demand tightness caused by “low initial float + intensive index buying”. However, after the 2Q26 and 3Q26 results and subsequent staggered lock-up expiries, tradable supply should gradually increase. The market impact is likely to shift from short-term demand driven to supply release and valuation digestion.
SpaceX Trading Imminent
The SpaceX IPO is set to begin trading momentarily. Shares are indicated to open 29% above the IPO price.
Ahead of the public market debut, SpaceX has revealed that the IPO is expected to draw more than $350 billion in demand. There are indications that $250 billion is coming from institutional orders, while about 20% of shares have been allocated to retail.
SpaceX record ipo is said to draw over $350 billion in demand
SpaceX ipo said to draw over $250 billion in institutional orders
SpaceX said to place 20% of ipo shares to retail investors
SpaceX said to sell 70% of institutional book to long-only, swfs
Latest headlines:
CNBC Television: SpaceX president: “I wasn’t sure we would go public”
CNBC Television: SpaceX public debut set to be a big day for employees who own the stock
CNBC Television: $140 SpaceX per share makes Musk a trillionaire
North of $140 per share, Musk becomes a trillionaire …. Indications right now show $175 per share.
Liftoff: SpaceX Gray-Market Trading Signals 35% IPO Pop
Trader sentiment has sharply reversed after President Trump canceled the planned strikes and negotiators signaled progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Risk assets are catching a bid Friday morning, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up roughly 30 bps. Treasurys are also rallying, with yields down 8 to 10 bps across the curve, led by the belly, and the 10-year yield is around 4.45%.
The timing could not be better for Elon Musk. SpaceX shares are set to hit public markets in the coming hours, potentially making Musk the world’s first trillionaire on paper and minting roughly 4,000 employee millionaires. SpaceX’s public market debut comes as themes of artificial intelligence and the space economy ramp up.
Already, pre-IPO trading in the derivatives linked to SpaceX shows a potential first-day surge of 30% to 50%.
IG International pricing implied a market value near $2.4 trillion on Friday morning, more than 35% above the company’s $135 IPO price and $1.77 trillion valuation.
On Hyperliquid, SpaceX-linked perpetual futures traded at $175-$180, implying a valuation above $2.3 trillion, with 24-hour volume of more than $224 million and open interest of over $252 million.
Late in the U.S. cash session on Thursday, SpaceX filed a free writing prospectus (FWP) which confirmed the company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, for a total size of $75 billion (excluding the greenshoe), making history with the biggest-ever IPO, launching it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world’s first trillionaire.
For context, SpaceX is more than double the size of the previous largest IPO – Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The SpaceX registration statement was declared effective on Thursday.
The pricing details are shown below.
At $135, SpaceX will have a market value of $1.77 trillion. Accounting for employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing gives it a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX’s market value will rank it among the top 10 public companies globally, and make it larger even than Musk’s own Tesla.
According to Polymarket, there is a 84% chance the IPO closes above its offering price tomorrow, and a 46% chance it rises more than 20%.
Nearly 50% odds on Polymarket that SPCX rises 20% ($2.2TN market cap) on its first day of trading, and 84% odds it closes above its offering price. https://t.co/UfN4FOlP7Tpic.twitter.com/6U0S0HDyt1
Odds of a big SpaceX first day gain rising sharply: now probability of a 20% gain (>$2.2TN) at 62%, up from 20% yesterday, and a 30% gain (>$2.4TN) at 46% https://t.co/d9qNMLY5vipic.twitter.com/j3bQSVWUyU
According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts, including one from New Street Research, Oppenheimer, and KGI Securities, have all rated SpaceX “Buy” with an average 12-month price target of $189.
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan published a note on Thursday, initiating coverage of SpaceX with a $190 price target and a “Buy” rating.
Horan’s bull thesis:
We believe SPCX intends to converge communications and cloud/AI using space- based infrastructure. We see potential for SPCX to leverage terrestrial compute expertise as a bridge (and possible back-up plan) to enable key scale and cost advantages. We see it as the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent. We note significant regulatory, technology, execution, keyman and investor expectation risks remain and that thermal management of chips for space applications in space within four years appears challenging. However, its space infrastructure appears structurally advantaged. We note terrestrial DC capabilities include highest velocity/lowest cost DCs (Colossus) which combined with V3s and Cursor will drive 2027-30E revenues. We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating/$190 PT at the IPO price of $135.
His key points:
Robust public currency is key to business strategy. We believe access to capital is essential for CEO Elon Musk’s long-term AI vision in order to fund dominant communications and compute capacity along with acquisitions of AI companies. Eventual Tesla merger is plausible, but near term we believe the cos. will remain a quasi-vertically integrated ecosystem to provide access to capital.
Large markets, but critical technology risk remains. We believe SPCX could address a $10T TAM by 2035E, but note that critical enabling-technology commercialization for space-based DCs remains uncertain, notably for thermally resistant chips, and costs could prove noncompetitive even if SPCX successfully builds chips. Should technology development be delayed, we see potential to leverage core expertise in terrestrial DC buildouts to support AI plans.
Starship is crucial for success. SPCX is targeting 10K launches/year (27/day) totaling ~1.4B kg to deploy 1M datacenters and 100K communication satellites to support 1TW of its own manufactured chips. We believe this is only possible with capital/Starship, the most complex machine ever built. We expect growth to accelerate in 2027E as Starship enters commercial service and as AI LLMs/ infrastructure begin to see market traction.
LEO communications capacity to grow 100x, at a $10/subscriber/month cost. Goal is to have a majority of AI compute, offered in space at lowest cost. We see 230M broadband subs in a decade, and 240GW of compute vs. global current capacity of 100GW. The communications technology is solved, the compute is not. There are a half dozen other, large long-term industries.
Expect high volatility, with shares trading up initially. We anticipate an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion. Our $190 PT ($2.5T firm value) is based on our DCF and 2035E revenue/EBITDA of ~$0.9T/$0.5T, requiring ~$1.6T in cumulative CapEx/spectrum and $300M more funding.
Separately, IG analyst Fabien Yip noted, “Demand has been good for the IPO and there is a lot of interest in the pre-IPO trading as well,” adding, “We have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs.”
Yet Morningstar analysts, Elizabeth Warren, and lefty pension funds have all tried to kill the hype cycle leading up to today’s world’s largest IPO.
US Pulling Large Chunk Of Jets, Refueling Tankers From NATO Defense, Realigning Further East
In a move that surprises absolutely no one paying attention, the United States is planning to significantly slash the number of fighter jets and warships it feeds into the NATO machine in Europe, the New York Times reported Thursday.
The reported cutbacks hit right as panicked European nations scramble to patch up their own defense capacities. Though long expected given President Trump’s somewhat adverse relationship with the NATO alliance, and fiercely critical rhetoric continuously directed at Brussels, European capitals are deeply concerned given they are under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year.
Washington is officially out of patience while Trump has openly mocked the alliance as a “paper tiger” and labeled its members “cowards” – earlier venting his frustration over Europe’s refusal to jump into the US-Israeli war against Iran.
According to two unidentified senior European officials cited by the NYT, Washington’s upcoming retreat from the continent includes drawing down the number of US fighter jets supplied to Europe by one-third, as well as cutting all eight aerial refueling tankers conventionally provided (as most of the Pentagon’s refueling tanker planes are currently in Tel Aviv anyway), and drastically reducing maritime reconnaissance aircraft.
Other prime military assets slated to be reallocated include a missile-launching submarine, an aircraft carrier, a group of bomber aircraft, and a handful of jets and warships. All of this was already previewed and leaked, but the fresh Times reporting provides further confirmation.
The writing has been on the wall for weeks, given that US European Command explicitly stated this month that it would reassess Washington’s contributions to NATO to “ensure Europe takes primary responsibility for its own conventional defense.”
We featured previous reporting which outlined a new US framework for defense of Europe based on the US mainly ‘just’ providing nuclear deterrent rather than the broad military support it has historically guaranteed.
The primary driver for this withdrawal is the US military’s pivot toward the Asia-Pacific, though officials also cited the need for flexibility to commit assets to military campaigns in the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere.
While NATO leadership officially portrays the move as a way to reduce “over-dependence” on the US, European diplomats find the requirements far more severe than anticipated, with European leaders reportedly stunned by the scale and speed of the requirements.
Reportedly in secret meetings some representatives even interpreted the US insistence on rapid compliance as an “indirect threat” toward those who fail to act quickly.
First Real Breakthrough? Iran Says Deal Is ‘Closer Than Ever’ In Unexpected First, Oil Prices Tumble
Summary
Pakistan PM Sharif: “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached & Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.”
Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides “have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.”
Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran’s version of MoU terms (below): “What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.”
Tehran: “Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of ‘Islamabad Declaration’ as soon as Sunday or next week.
Pakistan Chimes In with PM Sharif declaring that “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.” Oil drops lower.
SHARIF: FINAL, AGREED UPON TEXT OF PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED
Amid ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and…
Now this is a true first: President Trump sharing FM Arachchi’s tweet…
First Time Iran Pushes Positive ‘Closer Than Ever’ To Deal Statement, Oil Drops
Amid the constant back and forth yo-yo and ping pong concerning how close or not a final MoD between Tehran and Washington is, now Tehran is pushing the “never been closer” rhetoric, which is somewhat of a surprise given Trump just called their own public ’14-points’ “fake news” in terms of US agreement to it.
But this is the first time in a long while that the Iranian side has side anything positive on the question of reaching a deal, and getting back to a direct negotiating framework. The country’s top diplomat has just stated that the warring sides have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.
After crude jumped on Trump’s ‘fake news’ Truth Social (below, which indicated he had not accepted many key Iranian demands), oil pushed back down on the new Araghchi statement:
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.
In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.
And there it is: President Trump himself denies the earlier in the morning return of a ‘deal is near’ – by taking to Truth Social and rejecting the stated Iranian terms (as delivered publicly in state media sources):
What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.
Immediately, the expected and familiar spike in oil and the return to pessimism, though at this point there have been no bombs away, after the White House canceled what was to be a third night of strikes (last night):
‘US-Iran Deal Is Near’ Narrative Returns, But Tehran Refuses To Surrender Hormuz Leverage
After having heard the same line many, many times before – and yet with no result (instead, more often the opposite of sliding into further conflict and escalation) – Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday welcomed the “progress” made between the United States and Iran in indirect negotiations.
CNN and other mainstream outlets are reporting on this “hint” that an interim deal taking shape (again). But given the pattern and track record of such reporting, which has consistently proven premature, elusive, and often downright false – it’s hard not to have cynicism and to see much of this as but crude propaganda aimed at keeping energy prices down.
“Both sides welcomed the progress achieved through sustained diplomatic engagement and expressed hope that these efforts will soon lead to a durable understanding and peaceful resolution,” according to Pakistan’s readout of a Foreign Ministry call with the European Union’s chief diplomat.
And yet, the message out of Iran does not suggest positive momentum or the beginnings of any kind of deal taking shape – though it remains that anything is possible (depending on how much either side is willing to ‘give up’ their respective red lines and firm positions).
Iran: Strait is ‘Firmly’ Under Our Control, Won’t Give it Up
Iran is currently saying the Strait of Hormuz is ‘firmly’ under IRGC control – an assertion the Pentagon has vehemently rejected, with Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayyari saying it continues to wield “power” over the Gulf region.
“The west of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait itself, and the Persian Gulf are under the firm control of the IRGC Navy,” Sayyari was quoted as saying in state media. “No vessel can enter without our permission.” Another commander also asserted that “We have had and continue to have power in the region” – batting down Trump’s words which say Iran’s military has been utterly defeated and decimated at this stage.
CNN Claims MoU Signing In Geneva Planned: Really?
But again, returning to the optimistic Friday reports, which may have no basis in reality whatsoever (time will tell), CNN is going so far as to report on the venue of a signing ceremony for a Tehran-Washington Memorandum of Understanding:
A signing ceremony for a memo of understanding with Iran would most likely be held in Geneva, Switzerland, three sources told CNN on Friday. That signing could take place as early as Sunday, according to a person familiar with plans.
That comes after US President Donald Trump on Thursday touted a “great settlement” that could resolve the war with Iran, suggesting it would be finalized in the coming days. Trump said he anticipated a signing ceremony for the document soon, potentially in Europe, to be attended by Vice President JD Vance. However, Iranian officials have yet to confirm an agreement has been reached.
Two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic talks said the signing ceremony would be held in Geneva – not far from where Trump and a US delegation will attend a G7 summit next week in France. One of those sources said a signing ceremony would mark the start of “phase two” of diplomatic talks, as officials work through the implementation of the memo of understanding.
Multiple sources said the memo is being called the “Islamabad declaration,” in recognition of the key mediating role Pakistan played. But nothing has been confirmed, and an Iranian source suggested the Austrian capital Vienna was also being considered.
According to reports from Iran, the proposed deal may be even more scandalous than what was reported last night.
Iran’s Mehr News Agency, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, claims the draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran… https://t.co/rMctp2wbPS
But the nature of the MoU would likely just involve committing to a framework basis on which both sides would get back to the negotiating table, and not yet necessarily a final, lasting peace deal. Iranian state media on Friday did seem in agreement that there’s been some level of progress on at least getting back to formal talks based on a MoU, per Bloomberg:
Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr said the countries are negotiating an agreement in which the strait would be reopened within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Under a draft agreement, the US would have no role in the future management of the strait and Iran would make no commitment to transfer control or restore conditions that existed before the US and Israeli attacks, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Iran Pushes Back Against US/Media Narrative
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has meanwhile rejected media speculations regarding an agreement and reaffirmed Iran’s resolute and principled stance, per Mehr. He stated: “Textually, the text has almost been finalized in its major parts. The problem is that the contradictory positions of the United States have always caused turbulence and disruption in this process.”
In terms of even rhetoric alone, the two sides still seem very far apart:
President Trump on Thursday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran said it hadn’t decided. “Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.”
Iran’s IRNA news agency reports the issue of US sanctions on Iran will be left for after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and a 60-day deadline for conducting peace negotiations.
“Iran does not offer any commitments in the memorandum regarding the nuclear issue, and the other party does not commit to lifting the sanctions,” it said.
“If Tehran decides to sign the memorandum, some of its frozen funds will be released immediately, and the rest gradually.”
Iran’s Mehr News claims a draft Trump-Iran deal would leave the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, provide $300B in reconstruction funding plus $24B upfront, suspend sanctions, withdraw U.S. forces from the region, ease pressure on missiles/proxies, and restrain Israel in…
Tehran reaffirms its position in the following fresh statement:
“Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The only matter referred to in the memorandum of understanding is the return of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the war,” Iran’s state media reported.
“The main objective of signing the memorandum of understanding is to end the war on all fronts”, it added.
All of this comes during a week which started with Iran and the US renewing a state of active fighting, and with Gulf states coming under Iranian ballistic missile attack, in retaliation for the latest waves of major US tomahawk strikes against Iran.
Still, Bloomberg and others are reporting the following: “US and Iran Nearing a Peace Deal Around G7 Meeting Next Week.” What can be said except we’ve been here before, and time will tell. Did Trump cancel yesterday’s planned strikes because a deal is really finally being forged?
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk
Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. [Click here for the full 14-point MoU]
The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring “freedom of trade” by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it’s a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn’t want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
Airplanes associated with US VP Vance’s advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.
“Reckless Propaganda”: Globe And Mail Op-Ed Tells Readers “How To Properly Hate” Elon Musk Ahead Of SpaceX IPO
Whether it is Elizabeth Warren, left-leaning unions, or Democrat-aligned NGOs funded by dark money, the common pattern here has been an information campaign aimed at Elon Musk to derail the SpaceX IPO. Their motives are very simple: if the game is about power and money, then Musk potentially becoming the world’s first trillionaire on Friday morning represents a direct threat to the progressive empire they have built.
Just as with President Trump, the left has mounted a permanent pressure campaign of ‘useful idiots’ against Elon Musk because he has poured tens of millions of dollars into political campaigns for pro-America candidates – something Democrats, socialists, and Marxists despise. Then, Musk headed up DOGE in early 2025, which resulted in the defunding of USAID – another move by Musk that caused unhinged left-wing NGOs and Democrats to lose their minds.
The anti-Musk crowd was at it again on Thursday, one day before the SpaceX IPO was set to kick off, when a former Wall Street Journal reporter published an opinion piece in The Globe and Mail titled, “SpaceX is set to make Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Here’s how to properly hate him.”
Chris Gay, who appears to have a lot of pent-up hatred for Musk, began the op-ed: “Now that the SpaceX initial public offering is making Elon Musk all but officially the world’s first trillionaire, is it okay to despise him just for being one? To broaden the question: are the billionaires associated with widening inequality a bad look for capitalism?”
The op-ed is less about wealth itself and more of a political framing exercise that uses the SpaceX IPO as the catalyst to recast Musk’s soaring fortune as a governance risk. Gay attempts to launder what appears to be hatred toward Musk, centering his argument on democracy, inequality, and political capture. In other words, the target is not simply Musk becoming the world’s first trillionaire, but the perceived threat that his capital, influence, and political alignment pose to the progressive establishment’s grip on institutional power.
Gay wrote, “By donating at least US$250-million to the Trump campaign in 2024, this private citizen positioned himself to kill a congressional budget deal more or less single-handedly, and then to create a bogus federal agency: the “Department” of Government Efficiency. He staffed it with college-age technobrats who among other things effectively dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, which millions of people depended upon for life-critical assistance.”
Gay’s op-ed, which The Globe and Mail posted on X, was heavily ratioed and had a Community Note …
How dare he create hundreds of thousands of jobs, trillions in wealth for others, accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, help paralyzed/disabled people to become more independent and connect poor/low income areas to the internet!
Elon has created thousands of millionaires through his endeavors. What have you done outside of yapping about better humans? pic.twitter.com/21dRG3AlYB
The fact that you are focusing on envy and hate instead of how to innovate and be successful like Elon speaks volumes about your writers and your sad little entity.
It’s not just Globe And Mail, the globalist Financial Times pushes the information operation to paint Musk as ‘evil’ …
Opinion: You might have thought the world’s richest man had enough on his plate teeing up history’s biggest IPO. Yet he has been devoting many of his waking hours to stoking up racial hatred in Britain on his social media site. https://t.co/1C09ebAgPgpic.twitter.com/sFFtPM3RVx
U.S. Park Police and federal officials opened an investigation Thursday after a sizable marking resembling “8647” was etched into the lawn of the National Mall.
The incident occurred amid preparations for major events celebrating the nation’s 250th anniversary of independence.
A Reuters photographer witnessed the marking from atop the Washington Monument before authorities, including members of the National Guard, arrived on scene near the World War II Memorial. The numbers, formed by discolored or browned grass against the surrounding grass, appeared to be massive.
The phrase “8647” comes from the restaurant slang “86,” which means to remove or get rid of, combined with 47 to reference President Donald Trump, currently sitting as the 47th president. Trump allies and the Department of Justice have interpreted the prevalence of the phrase as potential calls to violence as opposed to mere political expression.
An Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement that the act was “deranged vandalism.”
“Any threat against the president is taken very seriously by the Department, and our U.S. Park Police will investigate this incident and hold those responsible accountable,” the spokesperson said.
The U.S. Park Police said the cause of the grass discoloration has yet to be determined, though samples have been taken for testing as part of the continuing investigation.
This latest episode follows a previous high-profile case: the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on charges related to a social media post in 2025 featuring seashells arranged as “8647.”
“Threatening the life of the president of the United States will never be tolerated by the Department of Justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in April this year.
“Over the past year, this department has charged dozens of cases involving threats against all sorts of individuals. We take these seriously, every single one of them.”
Federal prosecutors tied the term to alleged threats against the president. Comey contended that his actions were not intended as such, and he challenged the accusations on free speech grounds.
“A child knows what that meant,” Trump said in May 2025. “If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”
The National Mall has hosted recent events such as the “Rededicate 250“ prayer celebration earlier this year, which attracted thousands to the grounds for a meditation on the nation’s founding principles.
Preparations are underway for Independence Day festivities, including military parades, museum exhibitions, and public programs honoring America’s heritage.
Trump has pledged to refurbish the Mall, encompassing efforts to restore features like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and plans for the semiquincentennial celebrations, with a “Great American State Fair“ set to begin later this month.
