By Michael Every of Rabobank

Oh, the places you’ll go

You have brains in your head.
You have feet in your shoes.
You can steer yourself
any direction you choose.
You’re on your own. And you know what you know.
And YOU are the guy who’ll decide where to go.

Asian and European stocks closed in the red yesterday following a Wall Street Journal report that Donald Trump had approved a plan to attack Iran, but was withholding final authorization in the hope that Iran would agree to abandon it’s nuclear program. 

The US has recently moved substantial military assets into the region, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group (bringing the number of carrier groups in the region to 3), up to 30 tanker aircraft, and several B2 bombers deployed to the Diego Garcia Indian Ocean base. The BBC reports that the B2 is capable of carrying the ‘Massive Ordinance Penetrator’ (MOP) bunker buster bombs that may be suitable for striking Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, located Dr Evil-style under a mountain.

Trump took to Truth Social yesterday to rubbish the report, saying “The Wall Street Journal has No Idea what my thoughts are concerning Iran!”

You’ll look up and down streets. Look ‘em over with care.
About some you will say, “I don’t choose to go there.”
With your head full of brains, and your shoes full of feet,
You’re too smart to go down any not-so-good street.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt told journalists on Thursday afternoon that President Trump would make a decision on strikes within the next two weeks, prompting something of a recovery in US equity futures, a selloff in the DXY index and a minor reduction in US, Aussie and Kiwi bond yields. The decision will be complicated by the fact that Trump ran on a platform of ending “forever wars”, especially in the Middle East.

With the US only recently having extricated itself from a decades-long deployment in Afghanistan, prompting the country to fall swiftly back into the status quo ante bellum, the last thing the President needs is to get bogged down in another extended conflict in the Middle East.

Trump recently posted “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” to Truth Social while also claiming that the US knows exactly where Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is hiding. Having reportedly dissuaded Israel from attempting assassination of Khamenei, Trump said that the US will not “take him out… at least for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.” That patience may be wearing even more thin after Iranian missiles struck an Israeli hospital in Beersheba yesterday, and Israel has again raised the prospect that it may seek to target Khamenei unilaterally.

And you may not find any
you’ll want to go down,
In that case, of course,
you’ll head straight out of town.

In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, former Trump Rasputin Steve Bannon railed against the prospect of US strikes on Iran. Bannon urged Trump to resist pressure from Neocons to step up American involvement, arguing that the idea runs counter to the Trump program of rolling back the imperial frontier and focusing on ‘hemispheric defense’ of the American homeland.

You will come to a place where the streets are not marked.
Some windows are lighted. But mostly they’re darked.
A place you could sprain both your elbow and chin!
Do you dare to stay out? Do you dare to go in?

Trump now faces something of a Sophie’s Choice. If he declines to initiate strikes Iran could plausibly sprint for a nuclear weapon that would pose an existential threat to Israel and perhaps encourage Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear arms of its own. If he conducts limited strikes on Fordo and elsewhere they may not succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program and the Hydra’s heads will undoubtedly grow back, leaving America to face the same conundrum again in the future. If he opts for extensive involvement and possible regime change, he runs the risk of squandering American blood and treasure in another Middle Eastern quagmire, fracturing the MAGA base and creating a power vacuum in central Asia with the potential for fissile material to remain unaccounted for. This could look like Russia in the 1990s, but worse.

And IF you go in, should you turn left or right…
or right-and-three-quarters? Or, maybe, not quite?
Or go around back and sneak in from behind?
Simple it’s not, I’m afraid you will find,
For a mind maker-upper to make up his mind.

Meanwhile, representatives of France, Germany and the UK will hold talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister today in what the FT describes as a last ditch attempt to prevent escalation of the conflict. UK Foreign Minister Lammy will reportedly deliver a US message that the diplomatic route remains open, with some prospect of reviving a deal for Iran to continue its nuclear program under international supervision. 

Such a deal would have more than a few hairs on it given Iran’s history of illegally carrying on enrichment activities well beyond the level required for civilian applications at facilities kept secret from international inspectors. Iranian enrichment capability has been a red-line for both the US and Iran. Consequently, Iran may gamble that the US has no stomach for direct strikes and will revive its negotiating tactic of 20 years or more: waiting out Western powers in the expectation that if a deal is not agreed, more favourable terms will be offered soon enough.

Headed, I fear, toward a most useless place.
the Waiting Place…
…for people just waiting.

Markets are now in that useless waiting place. Brent crude had been remarkably stable throughout the Asian session yesterday before catching a bid from the European open. Prices are down a little more than 2% this morning. European gasoil futures have plunged 4.5% since market open, but remain more than 4% higher over the last 3 trading days as markets judge that Europe is likely to be among the biggest losers from possible interruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. A similar theme is playing out in Dutch TTF natural gas futures.

I’m afraid that some times
you’ll play lonely games too.
Games you can’t win
‘cause you’ll play against you.

In other market-related news the Bank of England kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.25%. That outcome will shock nobody, but the 6-3 vote split was a little more dovish than previous 7-2 splits and perhaps signals that a consensus is building for a cut in August. The limits of monetary policy may again be explored if Iran makes good on renewed threats overnight to close the Strait of Hormuz. Unfortunately, central banks can’t print oil or gas.

Meanwhile, ahead of next week’s NATO summit, Spain has balked at NATO Chief Mark Rutte’s plan for 3.5% defence spending, describing it as “unreasonable” as it would be incompatible with Spain’s welfare state and vision of the world. The penny seems to have dropped on guns or butter choices, and Spain wants to choose butter. 

That comes as the EU is reportedly considering a UK-style trade agreement with the US with a 10% reciprocal tariff and negotiated export quotas to avoid sectoral tariffs. Will Ursula von der Leyen be able to get even that deal over the line if Spain is recalcitrant on defence?

Elsewhere, in another hit to elegant ideas of Ricardian free trade, Canada has just announced tariff rate quotas of 100% of 2024 levels on imports of steel products from non FTA origins, applied retroactively. The Canadian government has also said that it will put in place local content requirements for government projects and will increase tariffs on US steel and aluminium from July 21st to match US duties on Canadian product. That is sure to go down poorly in Washington.

So, while the world remains on tenterhooks over whether or not the US will bomb Iran’s nuclear mountain lair, the paradigm shift in global trade and economics continues. Let us join the dots for you by saying that geopolitics and geoeconomics are now the same thing, and attempting to negotiate them separately is unlikely to work.

And will you succeed?
Yes! You will, indeed!
(98 and ¾ per cent guaranteed.)
KID, YOU’LL MOVE MOUNTAINS!

We described earlier that the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has reportedly informed American officials that destroying Iran’s heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility might require the use of a nuclear weapon, based on The Guardian.

Officials, briefed on the limitations of the GBU-57 — a 30,000-pound conventional bunker-buster bomb — are worried that even if President Trump give the order it may not be powerful enough to reach and destroy the deeply buried site.

The report described that conventional bombs might have to be used to soften the terrain, followed by the dropping of a tactical nuclear weapon from a B-2 stealth bomber.

The latest reporting has sought to clarify that President Trump is not considering the nuclear option, nor has it yet to be formally presented to him by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. From fresh ‘anonymous’ White House statement present contradictory information.

So very quickly, here we are… there’s prominent public discourse about the ‘possibility’ or eventual ‘necessity’ of a nuclear bomb. As the Quincy Institute’s Eli Clifton observes:

It’s disturbing but not surprising how the entire Executive Branch communications apparatus can be activated into total war-hysteria mode seemingly overnight.

Israel is urging the US under Trump to target Fordow with whatever it takes, given it lacks the capability to carry out such a strike.

But at least it’s ‘comforting’ that a tactical nuke is off the table, for now… or wait:

“none of the options are off the table” – a fresh FOX report claims, citing a senior White House official.

Heinrich on Iran: An article stated that Trump was not considering a tactical nuke— that it was not one of the options that was presented to him. I was just told by a top official here that none of that report is true— that none of the options are off the table pic.twitter.com/rk6cFj4cIb

— Acyn (@Acyn) June 19, 2025

All this is premised on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that Iran is in fact pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Dangerously the White House seems to be siding with Israeli intelligence over the assessment of the US intelligence community, as presented by DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who may have already been sidelined in White House Situation Room discussions.

* * *

The Publication Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists are meanwhile warning that it’s possible that the Fordow enrichment facility could be destroyed and yet still it won’t make the Iranian nuclear threat go away…

If the Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program, started on June 13, is to prove successful in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, then a necessary—but not sufficient—step will involve the elimination of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

At the Fordow plant, located near the city of Qom, the Iranians have enough centrifuges (including IR-6s, their more advanced type) and uranium hexafluoride gas to produce several nuclear weapons. They could probably produce enough weapon-grade (90 percent) enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon within five to six days. Perhaps more important, Fordow itself is a hardened facility, built within a mountain and protected from many forms of attack. It could—in theory—continue to operate even after other nuclear facilities in the country have been destroyed, with its material then fueling nuclear weapons to be produced clandestinely.

If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran’s nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.

“The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won’t make the Iranian nuclear threat go away,” by @RichardMNephew. ⬇️https://t.co/2q46HIWPn4

— Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (@BulletinAtomic) June 18, 2025

Full Bulletin report here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed does not “predict”, but its GDP projections say “yes”…

Year-over-year GDP data from the BEA, chart by Mish.

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP),shows its median fourth-quarter year-over GDP projection was 1.4 percent.

“Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.”

In March, the Fed’s GDP projection for 2024 was 1.7 percent. It’s now 1.4 percent.

At first glance, 1.4 percent does not suggest recession. A closer look says otherwise.

Since 1948, there have been 12 recessions. And since 1948 there have only been three false positive instances in which year-over-year GDP declined from above 3.0 percent to 1.4 percent or lower in which there was not a recession.

Year-Over-Year GDP at Recession Start

Of the 12 recessions since 1948, 10 of them started with year-over-year GDP in positive territory.

Excluding the Covid collapse, the average of 11 instances has year-over-year GDP at the start of recession at 1.2 percent.

Predict may not be the correct word, but the Fed’s economic projections strongly suggest recession.

Fed’s Counterproductive Actions

The Fed’s battles to prevent recessions have created economic bubbles of increasing amplitude over time.

Stock market and housing prices are beyond insane and the consensus bet appears to be that the Fed will act to keep them that way.

Fed Projects Higher Unemployment and Higher Inflation Citing Tariffs

Yesterday, I noted Fed Projects Higher Unemployment and Higher Inflation Citing Tariffs

The Fed’s outlook has soured vs its March forecast. “We expect a meaningful rise in inflation in the coming months,” said Powell.

Regarding jobs, Powell said the labor force, participation rate, wages are all at “healthy levels”.

“You can see perhaps a very slow cooling but nothing that troubling at this time.”

Apparently Powell believes BLS statistics. I don’t. He does not see the train coming down the tracks.

Click on the preceding link for more Fed projections.

I commented “There’s a very good chance unemployment arrests the Fed’s expected inflation. But that assumes I am correct on weakening jobs.“

Also short-term is one thing and long-term another.

The Fed has destroyed housing with inept QE to the moon, and Congress is about to whip up inflation with Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act. Finally, Trump is doing his part with inept tariff policy.

I would not want to be in Powell’s shoes.

In June 2009 the Obama Administration officially designated the month of June as “Pride Month”, and with a snap of his fingers and billions of dollars in government subsidies, the concept slowly turned into a cultural plague, much like an annual flu that sticks around for three weeks longer than it should.

By the time Obama’s Vice President, Joe Biden, entered the White House in 2021, pride parades were heavily funded events backed by federal agencies like USAID along with numerous corporations looking for ESG points and easy money.  After the BLM riots, Democrats were looking for a way to cement the minority vote in their favor while also continuously pressing racial division. 

The Biden Admin decided to federally recognize “Juneteenth”, a “celebration” of the emancipation of slaves that no one had ever heard of until the Democrats made it official.

Rather than acting as a tool for racial healing, Juneteenth has become yet another attempt to incessantly inject racial conflict as its proponents assert that white Americans today need to pay for the slavery of centuries ago.  Never mind that white Americans fought a bloody civil war in part to end the practice.  Never mind that it’s an institution that existed for thousands of years before the US was founded, yet progressives seem to think slavery is exclusively American.  

No one in the west needs a reminder that slavery is bad. 

The artificial popularity of these DEI events has been made evident this June with the erasure of bureaucratic handouts and a sharp pullback in corporate participation.  Juneteenth has been a dud in 2025 and the political left is not happy about it.  

Huffington Post notes that the decline in monetary support is aggressive, but progressives have their own theories on why it’s happening.

“After the 2020 murder of George Floyd, many companies pursued efforts to make their branding more inclusive, but it has slowed down over the past few years after some received blowback from conservatives and because many companies didn’t see it as an important part of their revenue stream, said Dionne Nickerson, a professor in marketing at Emory University. 

Some companies can no longer afford to support Juneteenth celebrations because they just don’t have the money given the economic uncertainty, according to Sonya Grier, a marketing professor at American University…”

“Many state and local governments hold or help fund celebrations, but some decided not to this year…”

The Post also mentions that cuts to federal funds might just be the cause of the downturn in Junteenth events.  Though, it’s unlikely that the establishment media will ever admit the underlying truth: That almost no one is going to engage in DEI events without loads of government cash floating around. 

“Many local organizations have also had their budgets slashed after the National Endowment for the Arts pulled funding for numerous grants in May. 

The Cooper Family Foundation throws one of the largest Juneteenth celebrations in San Diego each year. It was one of dozens of groups told by the NEA in May that its $25,000 grant was being rescinded.  The email said the event no longer aligned with the agency’s priorities, said Maliya Jones, who works for the foundation…”

The NEA announced in February that they would end all grants for DEI related programs and they have made good on their word.  Leftists argue that the “fight must continue” without the aid of companies and government cash, but the reality is that there is no fight.  Black Americans have had equal rights for many decades and there is nothing for activists to achieve.  

What DEI events are really about is fomenting a false sense of victimhood and endless civil instability.  Activists need the “fight” to continue forever, because cultural conflict is how they make their money and how they gain political leverage.  Thankfully, the majority of the American public has no interest in playing this game and Juneteenth will inevitably go back into obscurity.     

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Multiple people who until early June served on a federal vaccine advisory committee cast votes on vaccines despite receiving or recently receiving money from pharmaceutical companies that stood to be affected by the votes, according to an Epoch Times review.

Dr. Helen Y. Chu, a professor of medicine and allergy and infectious diseases at the University of Washington, reported throughout 2024 receiving funds from Merck, among other pharmaceutical companies. In October 2024, in her first meeting as a member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), Chu voted in favor of expanding recommendations for vaccination against pneumococcal disease.

Merck manufactures multiple pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

Chu did not submit any conflict of interest disclosures for the meeting, according to a CDC database.

ACIP advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines. Members “are required to declare any potential conflicts of interest that arise in the course of ACIP tenure,” according to the CDC’s website. Members who declare perceived or actual conflicts of interest, the site says, “will be asked to recuse themselves from participating in the discussion and decision-making of the issues relating to that interest.”

ACIP rules state that to be considered for appointment to the panel, potential members must resign from any roles with a vaccine manufacturer, with exceptions for service on data monitoring boards and participation in clinical trials. The rules refer to a federal law that says special government employees such as ACIP members are barred by criminal statute “from participating personally and substantially in an official capacity in any particular matter in which, to his knowledge, he or any other person specified in the statute has a financial interest, if the particular matter will have a direct and predictable effect on that interest.”

Chu has outlined payments from Merck in conflict-of-interest disclosures for numerous studies. In a study published in August 2024, several months before the ACIP vote, Chu reported “consulting with” Merck. In another paper, received by a journal on Nov. 7, 2024—two weeks after the ACIP meeting—she reported “receiving personal fees” from a number of companies and groups, including Merck and Pfizer. In other papers in 2024 and 2025, Chu said she has served on an advisory board for Merck and received advisory board fees.

Chu is listed in another government database, which compiles payment records for physicians, as receiving $3,255 from Merck in 2023 and $4,899 from Merck in 2019, primarily for consulting.

That database has not yet published information for 2024.

Chu did not respond to requests for comment.

Chu and the other 16 ACIP members dismissed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earlier in June said in an article published on June 16 that ACIP procedures “have minimized the risk of alleged conflicts of interest and biases” and that “statements about potential conflicts were required during each meeting and before each vote, and members recused themselves from voting if any conflicts were identified.”

Other Members

Other dismissed members also voted on vaccines even though they recently received funds from at least one company that stood to be affected by the votes, The Epoch Times review found.

Dr. Edwin Jose Asturias, associate professor of pediatrics at the University of Colorado School of Public Health, and Dr. Lin H. Chen, associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, reported receiving thousands of dollars from Merck through at least 2023.

Both participated in the same 2024 vote on pneumococcal vaccination as Chu.

Chen also received $43,462 through at least 2023 from Valneva, which makes a chikungunya vaccine.

She abstained in April from voting on that shot.

“No conflict, but to avoid possible perception of conflict of interest for past [work] on chikungunya trials, I will abstain,” she said.

At a mid-2024 meeting, Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, professor of pediatrics, epidemiology, and population health at Stanford University’s School of Medicine, recused from votes on COVID-19, influenza, and pneumococcal vaccines because she was the principal investigator for trials for vaccines against COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, and varicella, including Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trial.

Months later, in the October 2024 meeting, Maldonado supported the expansion of pneumococcal vaccination recommendations and cast a vote in favor of advising the CDC to recommend more COVID-19 vaccine doses.

Maldonado reported $997,800 in research funding from Pfizer in 2023, according to the Open Payments database. She received $6,682 from Merck in 2023.

Dr. Oliver Brooks, CEO of Watts Healthcare Corporation in California, joined the latter vote. He reported receiving approximately $44,000 from Sanofi Pasteur through at least 2023. Under an agreement signed in 2024, Sanofi is assisting Novavax in commercializing its COVID-19 vaccine.

Chen, Maldonado, the University of Colorado School of Public Health, and Watts Healthcare did not return inquiries.

“Having a conflict-of-interest does not mean that people’s decisions will be biased but it creates the impression that the decisions could be biased and that undermines public confidence,” Dr. Joel Lexchin, an associate professor in the University of Toronto’s Department of Family and Community Medicine, who has studied conflicts of interest, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“To remove that impression, the most optimal way to move forward is to avoid the conflict but if that can’t be done then people must manage the conflict. In this case, that would be by abstaining on the vote,” added Lexchin, who assessed the situations of Chen and Maldonado.

Lexchin also said the members should have refrained from participating in discussions on the vaccines.

Another former ACIP member, Noel T. Brewer, a professor in public health at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, has disclosed in recent papers past work as a paid consultant for Moderna, Novavax, and Sanofi, which make or are involved with COVID-19 vaccines, as well as Merck. It’s not clear when the work was done.

Brewer, who did not respond to a request for comment, voted in favor of expanding pneumococcal and COVID-19 vaccination guidance.

Asturias, Brewer, Brooks, Chen, Chu, and Maldonado also all voted in 2024 to approve new versions of the childhood and adult immunization schedules. The schedules include pneumococcal, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, and varicella vaccines. None declared conflicts of interest.

Timing of Conflicts

Potential ACIP members must fill out a confidential U.S. Office of Government Ethics financial disclosure. Filers are told to report positions in the conflict of interest section for the preceding 12 months.

No other timing is mentioned in the ACIP rules or charter.

The CDC did not respond when asked to confirm that it only considers potential conflicts within the previous year.

Lexchin said that three years is typically the period of time set by journal editors for conflicts of interest.

In the article from the just-ousted ACIP members, they reported conflicts of interest for the past 36 months.

Chen said in the article that she resigned from Valneva and stopped receiving fees from pharmaceutical companies before starting her ACIP term. Chu reported receiving fees, and Maldonado listed her trial work for Pfizer and AstraZeneca, with neither specifying that the money stopped coming in before their work on ACIP began.

Asturias and Brooks did not list any conflicts.

Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, fellow and director of the Ethics and Public Policy Center’s Bioethics and American Democracy Program, told The Epoch Times in an email that it’s a recurrent challenge for health agencies such as the CDC and the committees that advise them to avoid being captured by industries, and that one method of capture is through payments.

Kheriaty, who was previously fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, said that in addition to prohibiting ACIP members from taking money from pharmaceutical companies during their time on the committee, the members should be barred after serving for at least eight years from accepting payments from the industries with which they were involved.

“Such a policy would prevent not only current conflicts of interest but also mitigate the promise of ‘future reward’ from industry,” he said. “Disclosure of conflicts alone is insufficient; these conflicts must be eliminated entirely.”

Dr. George Kuchel, professor of geriatrics at the University of Connecticut’s Center on Aging, another ousted ACIP member, abstained this year from voting on respiratory syncytial virus vaccines.

“I have no conflicts of interest,” he said at the meeting. “However, I will abstain … because I consulted for six months about a decade ago.”

The Department of Health and Human Services declined to provide the confidential disclosures filled out for the government by the former panelists or the conflict-of-interest waivers issued for the members in 2024 and 2025. The CDC in 2023 rejected a Freedom of Information Act request from The Epoch Times for the information, saying the documents were “exempted from release by statute.”

Full Sweep

In their article this week, the former members decried their removals, describing the move and the narrowing of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations as lacking clear rationale and destabilizing efforts to vaccinate more people in the United States.

They also said that the ousters and the appointment of eight new members, along with reorganization of CDC employees working on immunizations, “have left the U.S. vaccine program critically weakened.”

“I’d argue the opposite: what has weakened trust is decades of stacking advisory committees with individuals, whether financially conflicted or intellectually entrenched, while sidelining those who ask hard, necessary questions,” Kim Witczak, who has served on federal advisory committees as a consumer representative, told The Epoch Times in an email.

Kennedy has said that he removed the members because of a history of issues, including conflicts of interest.

He pointed to how a House of Representatives committee in 2000 found conflicts of interest among members of ACIP and the panel that advises the Food and Drug Administration on vaccines, including that some owned stock in the companies that make vaccines, and a 2009 inspector general report that concluded that 64 percent of members of one of the CDC’s advisory committees had potential conflicts of interest that were not identified or resolved.

“Today we are prioritizing the restoration of public trust above any specific pro- or anti-vaccine agenda,” Kennedy said in a statement. “The public must know that unbiased science—evaluated through a transparent process and insulated from conflicts of interest—guides the recommendations of our health agencies.”

He later wrote on the social media platform X that for the past 20 years, “individual panelists regularly voted to recommend new vaccines owned by companies with which they personally had obscene financial conflicts.”

Health officials have said they will be implementing new policies that recommend panelists recuse themselves from votes that would impact current or former clients.

Kennedy was responding to concerns raised about Dr. Robert Malone, a new ACIP member who was paid by plaintiffs suing Merck over its measles, mumps, rubella vaccine. In a report filed in 2018, Malone concluded that Merck misrepresented testing results.

Malone told The Epoch Times that he has not been involved in the case, which was dismissed in 2023, for years, and that he has received ethics training for the new position.

ACIP rules state that members, during their tenure, “do not serve as a paid litigation consultant or expert witness in litigation involving a vaccine manufacturer.”

A Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email that ethics agreements for the new members will be released before they start work on ACIP. The panel is slated to meet for three days beginning on June 25.

Martin Kulldorff, another new member, prepared a separate report against Merck in a different case that was also dismissed. Additionally, he is listed as an expert witness in a third case that is set to go to trial later this year. Kulldorff has not responded to requests for comment.

With tensions between Trump and Powell running at Israel-Iran levels, moments ago Fed Governor Christopher Waller put in a bid to become the next Fed (shadow) chair, and said the central bank can lower interest rates as soon as next month.

“We could do this as early as July,” Waller said in an interview with Steve Liesman. The next FOMC meeting is July 29-30, so if (next Fed chair) Waller had his way, Powell would be cutting in just over a month. 

Waller said the FOMC should move slowly but start to ease as inflation is now longer a major economic threat. “I think we’re in the position that we could do this and as early as July”, Waller said in an interview with Steve Liesman. “That would be my view, whether the committee would go along with it or no”.

“I think we’ve got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,” he said, adding the central bank could pause cuts if needed. And of course, let’s not forget that the Fed did cut 50bps two months before the election, when inflation was not only much higher than it is today, but when the US economy was just as weak as it is now.

Some more “facts”: the last time US data was this weak the Fed cut 50bps https://t.co/JkpqnlhFm3 pic.twitter.com/7GJOqr93RC

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2025

Waller’s comments followed the decision by Fed policymakers on Wednesday to keep interest rates on hold. where the number of officials who saw rates unchanged in 2025 rose from 4 in March to 7, pointing to an apparent split in the committee.

Officials also continued to signal their expectation for two rate cuts before the end of 2025, according to their median projection.

Some more comments from Waller:

• *WALLER: DON’T WANT TO WAIT FOR CUTS UNTIL JOB MARKET TANKS
• *WALLER: JUST DON’T SEE SECOND-ROUND TARIFF INFLATION EFFECTS
• *WALLER: NOT ALL OF TARIFFS WILL BE PASSED THROUGH TO INFLATION
• *WALLER: MIGHT SEE INFLATION RISE THREE-TENTHS OR HALF PERCENT

Translation: “Mr President, I am happy to step in as shadow Fed chair until the stupid numbskull guy is out.”

Remarkably, Waller isn’t even among the list of candidates considered by Polymarket as next Fed chair.

He should be.

Authored by Zachary Kelman via CoinTelegraph.com,

In 2021, Crypto-America was in the doldrums. Senator Elizabeth Warren and her loyal SEC enforcer, Gary Gensler, unleashed a blitzkrieg against crypto, bombarding platforms with lawsuits and pushing legislation so heavy-handed that many feared it would cripple America’s burgeoning crypto industry.

The pièce de résistance of regulatory absurdity arrived as a poison pill in the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) — the notorious “DeFi Broker Rule.” Under this provision, protocols and node operators were given the Kafkaesque requirement of collecting the names and addresses of every wallet holder on their blockchains. 

Senate debates openly acknowledge the impossibility of compliance, and it’s difficult to chalk the rule up to typical congressional technophobia or geriatric malaise. With Gensler’s quixotic crusade at full tilt, the American crypto community felt sucker-punched, with many looking abroad for refuge from what seemed less like incompetence and more like deliberate sabotage.

The GENIUS Act

The DeFi Broker Rule, like Gensler’s broader crusade, died on the vine earlier this year, even after its scope was belatedly narrowed to entities “capable” of identifying wallet holders in a last-ditch face-saving effort.

Its demise rendered moot the painstaking efforts node operators worldwide undoubtedly undertook, scrambling to collect the names and addresses of millions of wallet holders, instantly transforming the newly minted IRS Form 1099-DA into an accounting enthusiast’s collector’s item destined never to be filed.

Yet Warren and her fellow institutionalists marched onward, unfazed, eyes fixed firmly on their next target — the GENIUS Act.

Warren, the former banking law professor and senior member of the Senate Banking Committee responsible for drafting the act, deployed virtually every regulatory scare tactic imaginable to halt the bill through 72 separate amendments.

One failed effort stood out with particular menace, eerily echoing the logic of the DeFi Broker Rule. This amendment sought to saddle stablecoin issuers with the Sisyphean duty of monitoring and reporting every illicit transaction occurring downstream — forever.

On the surface, such a demand might appear merely complex, unlike the impossible demands of the original IIJA DeFi Broker Rule. But complexity isn’t the real issue here; absurdity is. Expecting banks to identify customers or flag suspicious activity is one thing. It’s quite another to burden currency issuers with permanent accountability for every future crime involving their tokens. Imagine holding the US Treasury responsible for tracking every drug deal paid for in cash.

Stablecoin showdown

Had Warren simply insisted, as the original Bank Secrecy Act does, that stablecoin issuers identify third parties receiving initial blocks of stablecoins rather than policing all future use, her proposal might have been palatable to the bipartisan Senate Banking Committee and included in the Genius Act.

Such a measured approach would have been easily achievable by dominant stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle. Indeed, Tether was prominently named last week in a DOJ case celebrated by Warren, involving Russian nationals using the stablecoin to evade sanctions — a development highlighted by outlets like The Wall Street Journal as bolstering Warren’s position.

While Warren correctly noted that sanctions enforcement through traditional banking and international wire monitoring is stronger than through stablecoins, her position overlooked the inevitability of technological change. Fellow Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand recognized this reality and rejected Warren’s amendments, instead prioritizing the dollar hegemony promoted by the GENIUS Act. Gillibrand notably argued that the crypto ecosystem should have run on dollar-denominated stablecoins rather than yuan or renminbi.

Who stood to gain the most from Warren’s overreach? Big banks like Bank of America, which recently announced its own stablecoin, following JPMorgan’s lukewarm JPM Coin and Citigroup’s internal 2015 “CitiCoin” experiment. Armed with legions of compliance lawyers, these lumbering financial giants thrive precisely when smaller, agile crypto-native competitors suffocate under regulatory overhead. Despite casting herself as David battling banking Goliaths, Warren often ends up arming them with regulatory weapons or convenient talking points, particularly regarding crypto.

Warren’s efforts weren’t entirely in vain, as she partially succeeded with an amendment to mitigate executive branch corruption risks associated with stablecoins. She specifically spotlighted a $2 billion USD1 stablecoin deal struck in Abu Dhabi, in which Emirati-backed MGX used a Trump family-associated stablecoin to invest in Binance.

Although other senators prevented Warren’s amendment from explicitly including the president and vice president, arguing existing ethics laws already covered them, Warren’s linkage of President Donald Trump’s acceptance of a $400 million Boeing 747 from Qatar to the MGX transaction telegraphs future campaign narratives, lawfare or congressional investigations if Democrats regain power.

The American crypto community should note that Warren’s heavy-handed regulations aren’t random technophobic acts; they’re deliberate institutional maneuvers aimed at controlling the narrative and preserving power. Instead of killing the stablecoin bill, the institutionalists exposed their hand and inadvertently cleared the bases for crypto’s next big inning.

US equity futures are higher with small caps leading after the White House appeared to dial back speculation that Washington was on the verge of joining Israel’s strikes on Iran, while Reuters reported that Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its Uranium enrichment (if not going anywhere near close to what the US/Israel bid is for complete enrichment halt). As of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.2% and traded at session highs, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3% with Mag 7 stocks mixed and TSLA (+1.4%) outperforming. The big highlight today is a record (for June) $5.9 trillion option expiration which will see dealer gamma tumble and “unclench”, allow the market to move much more freely. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher while the USD is lower even as the USDJPY approaches a 1 month high. Commodities are lower: oil drops on renewed hopes for Iran deescalation; aluminum and precious metals are also down. Headline focus continues to be on Middle-East tensions after Trump disclosed he will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran. Elsewhere, Japan in focus with hotter inflation data overnight (driven by continued surge in rice prices) and reports of larger-than-expected planned cutback to superlong JGB issuance. WTI reached $77 briefly on Thursday before coming down to $73 this morning. It’s a quiet end to the week: US economic data slate includes June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and May Leading Index (10am). No Fed speakers are scheduled. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks rebound alongside index futures but are mixed with TSLA outperforming (Tesla +1.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Alphabet -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%). 

• Accenture shares (ACN) are down 3.9% in premarket trading, after the IT services company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Capricor Therapeutics shares (CAPR) fell 4.4% in premarket trading after Nicole Verdun, super office director at Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, was placed on administrative leave.
• Circle Internet Group shares (CRCL) are set to extend gains, rising 11% in premarket trading. The stablecoin issuer rallied almost 34% on Wednesday after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation setting up regulatory rules for crypto currencies pegged to the dollar.
• GMS shares (GMS) rise 28% in premarket trading on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Home Depot has made an offer for the building materials firm, potentially setting off a bidding war with QXO which made a $5 billion offer earlier in the week.
• Johnson Controls International Plc shares (JCI) fell 1% in premarket trading after Oppenheimer cut its recommendation on the building products company to perform from outperform.
• Mondelez (MDLZ) advances 0.5% in premarket trading following an upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo, which sees its bull case for the Oreo-cookies maker becoming “more tangible.”
• Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks in premarket trading on Friday, rising 1.7%.

While markets remains focused on geopolitics, the big event for markets today is today’s $5.9 trillion option expiration, including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion notional of single stock options. This options expiration will be the largest June expiration on record…

Going back to geopolitics, sentiment was boosted after the White House said on Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, and there was still a “substantial chance” of a negotiated settlement.  Israel, meanwhile, struck more of Iran’s nuclear sites and warned it could bring down Tehran’s leadership as both sides awaited the US president’s decision. Iran maintained Friday it won’t negotiate with the US while Israel’s assault continues. With the weekend in sight, traders appear to be staying on the sidelines, unsure about the trajectory of the conflict. 

“One must of course be aware of the potential for significant gapping risk at the Sunday night open, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve over the weekend,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “Some trimming of risk, and squaring of positions, seems likely as today goes on.”

Some extreme scenarios resulting from increased US involvement in the Israel-Iran war could push oil prices as high as $130 to $150 a barrel, particularly if Iran retaliates in a major way, said Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics Ltd. Such a development would pause further policy easing by central banks, she said. Brent futures have been pricing in a geopolitical premium of about $8 a barrel since Israel and Iran began attacking each other last week, according to a survey of analysts and traders. US intervention in the conflict would bolster that further, but exactly how much would depend on the nature of the involvement, the nine respondents said.

“The recent air strikes pose risks to the new energy market landscape; however, further fallout for global energy prices seems, for now at least, limited,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “Markets tend not to price in geopolitical risks until there is a conflagration, and they are currently showing little sign of factoring in a worst-case outcome.”

Markets were rattled earlier in the week after the Fed downgraded its estimates for growth this year and projected higher inflation. “Even though central banks would like to think that would be a temporary impact, I think it would be a brave central bank that would cut interest rates,” McKeown said on Bloomberg TV.

European stocks also rose as the White House downplays the likelihood of imminent US military action against Iran. The Stoxx 600 snapped a three-day losing streak, up 0.5%. Travel, banks and tech outperform as almost all sectors climb, barring energy. Among individual movers in Europe, TUI AG gained the most in two months after Barclays Plc double-upgraded the stock, citing robust demand for packaged travel. Berkeley Group Holdings Plc slumped after the homebuilder announced management changes and cited persistent regulatory headwinds as it reported earnings. Here are some of the more notable European movers: 

• TUI shares gain as much as 5.7%, the most in two months, as Barclays double-upgrades the stock. Analysts see a unique, though complex business with earnings momentum, supported by robust demand for packaged travel
• Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 2.5% after the specialty chemicals firm was placed on a positive catalyst watch at JPMorgan, which now has stronger conviction in earnings upgrades resulting from the group’s upcoming results
• Zealand Pharma shares gain as much as 2.5%, paring this week’s drop to 13%. The recent selloff following early data for Eli Lilly’s rival amylin drug eloralintide is “overdone,” according to KBC
• Eutelsat shares rise as much as 27% after announcing a plan to raise €1.35 billion in new equity, offering the satellite firm crucial financial resources to expand its low-earth orbit constellation
• Thyssenkrupp Nucera shares rise as much as 5.8% after the German company announced the acquisition of key assets from Danish firm Green Hydrogen Systems, which said it will seek bankruptcy protection after its restructuring process failed
• Demant shares climb as much as 1.9% after Barclays upgraded the stock to equal-weight from underweight, citing the Danish hearing aid maker’s “more achievable guidance,” as well as growing optimism around market share dynamics
• Berkeley’s shares fall as much as 9.9%, their worst one-day drop since March 2020. While the homebuilder’s earnings were in line with expectations, the company flagged persistent regulatory headwinds, with analysts saying prospects for a recovery are unclear

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced after news that President Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, allaying some concerns over immediate US involvement. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%, with chip-related stocks SK Hynix and Advantest among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi closed above 3,000 points for the first time since December 2021, and a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rose 1.4%. Stocks fell in Japan and Australia. The MSCI Asian benchmark is still poised to end the week lower after a two-week streak of gains. Middle East tensions have put risk sentiment back in check as investors eye the potential impact on oil prices in particular.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, extending its losses into a second day. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was little changed as cash market reopened following a holiday. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 145.62; Japan’s key consumer inflation measure accelerated more than expected to 3.7% from a year earlier in May. GBP/USD up 0.2% to 1.3495; UK retail sales suffered the sharpest fall since 2023, a sign the economy could be struggling in the second quarter.

In rates, treasuries are steady as US markets reopen post-holiday. European yields erase earlier drop are are now little changed across the curve, while the euro and pound both gain. JGB futures turn lower and USDJPY trades near 145.50 after Japan proposes to cut the issuance of super-long bonds this year by more than earlier reported. 

In commodities, Brent crude falls 2% to around $77.20, giving back gains from earlier in the week. Gold is down some $16 to around $3,354/oz. Bitcoin climbs. 

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK retail sales  which had their sharpest fall since 2023 in May, slumping 2.7%, more than the estimated 0.5% decline, Euro Area money supply for May, preliminary consumer confidence for June, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoJ Governor Ueda, and the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.9%
• CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis point at 4.43%
• VIX -1.6 points at 20.57
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1207.39
• euro +0.3% at $1.1527
• WTI crude +0.7% at $75.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil prices eased and stock futures pared some losses after President Trump signaled he would give some time for negotiations before deciding on potential strikes on Iran, and after a Senior Iranian Official said Iran was ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment: RTRS
• Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel. BBG
• China sent the highest number of warplanes toward Taiwan since October, the island’s defense ministry said. BBG
• China’s record 1.18 billion-barrel oil stockpile is cushioning refiners from potential supply shocks in the Middle East. The high buffer, soft margins and seasonal demand weakness means they’re in no rush to replace Iranian crude. BBG
• US tariff hikes on small packages from China caused a 40% drop in shipments in May from a year ago, with the value of small parcels falling to just over $1 billion. BBG
• Japan’s consumer inflation measure accelerated to a fresh two-year high, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising 3.7% from a year earlier in May. BBG
• Japan is planning to cut the issuance of super-long bonds this year by more than earlier reported as it tries to restore calm to a market spooked by recent record highs in yields. The Finance Ministry proposed reducing the issuance of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds by a total of ¥3.2 trillion ($22 billion) through the end of March 2026. BBG
• UK retail sales had their sharpest fall since 2023 in May, slumping 2.7%, more than the estimated 0.5% decline. BBG
• EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis said the EU was ready to take measures with the US if a solution could not be found, but noted that progress was being made in trade talks with Washington: RTRS
• Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada would introduce a series of countermeasures to help it respond to Trump-era tariffs. He stated that Canada would adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products on 21 July: RTRS
• QXO Inc proposed to acquire interior-construction-products distributor GMS Inc for $95.20 a share. Roofing-products distributor QXO said Wednesday the proposal implies a total value of $5 billion and is a 27% premium over GMS’s 60-day volume-weighted average price. BBG
• Democratic staffers are meeting with the parliamentarian’s office today, GOP aides will also have their own meetings. After that, full Byrd Bath arguments with GOP and Democratic staffers will start Sunday: Punchbowl 

Trade/Tariffs

• EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis said the EU was ready to take measures with the US if a solution could not be found, but noted that progress was being made in trade talks with Washington, according to Reuters.
• Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada would introduce a series of countermeasures to help it respond to Trump-era tariffs. He stated that Canada would adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products on 21 July. The level of Canadian counter-tariffs would depend on the progress of talks with the US on a new economic deal. He added that only Canadian producers and producers from trading partners offering Canada tariff-free reciprocal access would be eligible to compete for federal government procurement of steel and aluminium. Canada would adopt additional tariff measures to address risks associated with persistent global overcapacity and unfair trade in the steel and aluminium sectors. He also announced that Canada would establish new tariff rate quotas at 100% of 2024 levels on imports of steel products from non-free trade agreement partners, according to Reuters.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry says its Minister held a video meeting with EU Trade Commissioner on Thursday; had “in-depth” talks on remedy cases such as EVs

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks initially saw directionless trade following a non-existent lead from Wall Street amid the Juneteenth market holiday. Nevertheless, geopolitics remained in the spotlight as US President Trump now has to decide whether or not to join Israel’s offensive against Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next two weeks, contingent on negotiations. Sentiment eventually turned mostly firmer with notable Israel-Iran newsflow on the lighter side. ASX 200 was subdued with miners dragging on the index whilst losses in financials also kept upside capped. Nikkei 225 was buoyed by recent JPY weakness but came off best levels in tandem with USD/JPY after Japanese Core CPI topped expectations, whilst stale BoJ minutes (from two meetings ago) were also released. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially choppy with the indices trimming modest earlier gains despite relatively quiet newsflow. The PBoC LPR setting was a non-event, with the central bank maintaining the 1-year and 5-year LPRs as expected.

Top Asian News

• The PBoC maintained its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and its 5-year LPR at 3.50%, as expected, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they had observed spikes in super‑long JGB yields recently, according to Reuters.
• Minutes from the BoJ’s 30 April – 1 May meeting showed that many members said they must carefully scrutinise each nation’s trade policy and its developments, given the heightening downside risks to the economy and prices, according to Reuters.
• PBoC injected 161.2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
• BoJ Governor Ueda says Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weakness, underlying inflation to gradually heighten after a pause.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened firmer, and are attempting to build on gains, benefiting from the positive mood surrounding geopolitical optimism. European sectors are almost entirely in the green, Energy is the sole loser, due to lower oil prices, which is to the benefit of travel and leisure, which gains. Banking stocks lead the charge, buoyed by fresh EU developments that see the European Investment Bank’s annual lending ceiling raised to EUR 100bln.

Top European News

• BoE’s Bailey says “we are living in a world of much larger economic shocks which have their origins outside economic causes”.

FX

• DXY is flat and trading in a very tight 98.53-98.70 range, after falling a touch overnight on geopolitical updates which has seen the Dollar lose its risk premia a little. In the prior session, the Dollar slipped after US President Trump offered Iran a two-week window to monitor negotiations before deciding on military action. This sparked a risk-on mood, as it helps to ease some nerves of an imminent attack on Iran and hence an escalation in the Middle East. Data docket today includes US Philly Fed Business Index and Leading Index Change.
• EUR is at the top of the G10 leaderboard, but ultimately just a little stronger vs the Dollar. No specific European-driver for the strength today, so likely on the geopolitical updates from Trump on Thursday (see above) – in brief, should the US choose not to attack Iran, this would be net-negative on crude prices and as such has lifted the Single-Currency today; gains are of course capped given the continued uncertainty. EUR/USD currently trading around the mid-point of a 1.1491-1.1532 range.
• JPY is essentially flat/modestly firmer today but did catch a slight bid following the region’s inflation report. Headline Y/Y printed in-line with expectations whilst the Core metric was a touch above expectations, and in-fact printed the fastest Y/Y pace since January 2023. Following the release of the Japanese CPI report, USD/JPY fell from 145.29 to a session trough of 145.16, but now trades around 145.30.
• GBP is incrementally firmer vs the USD but posts modest losses vs the EUR. Cable saw was mildly pressured on the release of a very weak Retail Sales report, whereby the M/M metrics fell beneath the most pessimistic of analysts’ forecasts; printing at -2.7% (exp. -0.5%). GBP/USD fell around 0.2% to make a fresh trough at 1.34470 in the hour after the Retail Sales report. Thereafter, the Pound has been trading relatively steady for most of the morning. Upside levels include its 21 DMA at 1.3518.
• Antipodeans are incrementally firmer/flat vs the Dollar in what has been a lacklustre session so far. Specifics for the Aussie and Kiwi have been on the lighter side overnight.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1695 vs exp. 7.1801 (prev. 7.1729); strongest CNY fix since March 17th

Fixed Income

• JGBs are essentially flat but did see some marked action in a 139.32 to 139.50 band as draft reporting and commentary emerges from the Ministry of Finance Meeting. In brief, Bloomberg citing a draft reported that Japan intends to cut super long issuance by JPY 3.2tln, by cutting JPY 100bln from 30yr and 40yr auctions and 200bln from the 20y; consensus was for 100bln in each tenor.
• USTs incrementally firmer/flat as it returns to Cash trade following Thursday’s holiday. Contained overnight, but was then pressured in the European morning, potentially as traders continue to digest and factor in the latest geopolitical optimism. Downside limited so far, and USTs remain above Thursday’s 110-22+ base.
• Bunds were modestly firmer for much of the morning. Lifted by around 30 ticks on the UK retail metrics this morning (see Gilts). Peaked at a 131.33 high but has since been drifting and now finds itself back marginally below the figure, and by extension in proximity to the earlier 130.88 low; now essentially unchanged on the session.
• Gilts gapped higher by 18 ticks, following an abysmal set of retail data. The series saw sales volumes fall across the board, the most pronounced move was in food and while that is somewhat skewed by an unfavourable prior, the series is nonetheless dire. While bid initially, and to a 93.05 peak, the move proved somewhat short-lived as Gilts also digested the latest PSNB data. A series that featured the highest May borrowing on record, ex-COVID; metrics that offset the dovish impulse from Retail Sales. Overall, Gilts now near-enough flat and at the lower-end of the day’s limited 92.83 to 93.05 band.
• Japan plans to cut FY25 superlong JGB issuance by JPY 3.2tln, via Bloomberg citing a plan; Japan to cut 20yr bond issuance by JPY 200bln (exp. JPY 100bln); cut 30yr by JPY 100bln (exp. JPY 100bln); cut 40yr by JPY 100bln (exp. JPY 100bln), per auction. Japan to offset cuts by boosting the issue of 5yr and 2yr notes and T-bill.
• Japan Finance Ministry Official does not deny the possibility of considering buying back some JGBs; not in the process of implementing buybacks right now; will need to consider various factors if steps are decided.

Commodities

• Brent suffers losses of around USD 2/bbl on optimism of Middle-East negotiations, with Iran-E3 meetings today, and primarily after the two-week window Trump has provided. Note, while Brent is lower, WTI posts gains of USD 0.40/bbl, a discrepancy due to the lack of settlement amid the US holiday on Wednesday. Geopolitical updates this morning light, aside from, US Secretary of State Rubio telling his French counterpart that the US is ready for direct contact with the Iranians at any time, however the Iranian Foreign Minister noted that the nation would not speak with the US, while Israeli attacks continue.
• Spot gold is suffering from the generally positive risk environment, currently holding around the USD 3350/oz mark but has been USD 10/oz lower; given the geopolitical relief, mentioned in the crude section. XAU has taken out the 21-DMA at USD 3345/oz, the next level comes via the June 12th low of USD 3338/oz.
• Base metals are in the red and failing to benefit from the positive European mood after the red metal failed to coat-tail on the broadly firmer European risk tone. Copper currently tests the USD 9,600 mark, and resides within USD 9,565.45-9,654.6/t bounds.
• Citi said that if 1.1mln BPD of Iranian oil exports were disrupted—using May exports as a baseline—it estimated prices should rise by about 15–20%, compared with an average of USD 65/bbl in the month before the Iran-Israel conflict escalated on 12 June. A 1.1mln BPD disruption implied Brent prices should be in the USD 75–78/bbl range. Citi added that prices reaching USD 90/bbl—its current bullish case, short of a major escalation in oil transit—would imply a disruption of 3mln BPD over a multi-month period, according to Reuters.
• India restricted the import of alloys of palladium, rhodium, and iridium containing over 1% gold by weight, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East War

• Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel, according to Bloomberg
• E3/EU-Iran meeting in Geneva expected to occur “this afternoon”, via WSJ’s Norman.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz has ordered the military to increase attacks on Iranian regime targets within Tehran.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister says they will only hold nuclear talks in the E3 meeting.
• Russia’s Kremlin says dialogue with Ukraine continues expect to agree next week on a date for the next round of talks Ukraine is unpredictable, continue “special military operation”, though would prefer to reach goals by diplomatic needs.

US Involvement

• The White House said, “message directly from the President – based on the fact that there is a significant chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future – I will make a decision on whether to launch [an attack] in the next two weeks.”
• US President Trump had been briefed on both the risks and benefits of bombing Fordow and his mindset was that disabling it was necessary due to the risk of weapons being produced in a relatively short period of time, according to CBS.
• Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source, reported that the US had asked Israel to defer its attack on the Fordow nuclear facility.
• Kann News reported that there was a “possible attack at Fordow”: according to sources, the US had asked Israel to wait until negotiations with Iran had been exhausted.
• US President Trump is to attend a National Security Meeting at 11:00 EDT on Friday.
• US law enforcement officials had stepped up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives in the US, according to CBS sources.
• The White House said Iran was able to produce a nuclear bomb within “a couple of weeks”.
• A White House official told Fox’s Heinrich that the US military had no doubt about the efficacy of bunker busters in eliminating the site at Fordow, and also denied that any options—including tactical nuclear weapons—had been taken off the table.
• The White House Press Secretary said there were no signs that China was getting involved militarily in Iran, according to Reuters.
• The US reportedly believed Iran would build a nuclear bomb if Supreme Leader Khamenei were assassinated and the Fordow facility was attacked, according to The New York Times.

Strikes

• There were reports of Israeli strikes in the Lavizan area of Tehran, where Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was reportedly hiding in a bunker, according to i24 journalist Stein.
• An Israeli military spokesman said Israel had attacked the special forces headquarters of the internal security apparatus in Tehran within the last 24 hours, according to Reuters.
• Journalist Horowitz said on X that opposition sources were circulating “unconfirmed” reports claiming that the head of Iran’s military, Abdolrahim Mousavi, had been killed in an Israeli strike.
• The Fars News Agency said Iran had used a new generation of precision missiles in its attack on Israel on Thursday morning, according to Fars.
• The Norwegian Foreign Ministry said an explosion had occurred on Thursday evening in Tel Aviv at the residence of the Norwegian ambassador to Israel, according to Reuters.
• The Jordanian army said an explosives-laden drone had fallen in the Azraq area after it “fell short of its range,” according to Al Hadath.
• Iranian media reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Al Arabiya.

Diplomacy

• Britain, France, and Germany are to hold talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister on Friday in a last-ditch effort to avert an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and a possible US intervention, according to FT.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister had reached out to European foreign ministers, requesting a meeting with them on Friday, Jerusalem Post reported.
• Trump administration officials are pitching the president’s two-week timeline as an opportunity to allow diplomacy to play out. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi had been in communication in recent days, though there were no plans for the two to meet yet, according to ABC.
• Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff will not attend the UK/France/Germany talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday, according to White House officials cited by NBC.
• An Iranian source denied reports of a phone call between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US presidential envoy Witkoff following Israel’s aggression, according to Iran Nuances.
• The White House Press Secretary said they would see how the EU meeting with the Iranians went tomorrow, according to Reuters.
• US officials said no date had been set for a meeting between US and Iranian officials yet, according to Axios.

US Military and Deployment

• Over the next 10 to 14 days, there were expected to be two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and a third operating in the Mediterranean Sea, according to ABC.

Iranian Actions

• A senior IRGC official said that before the Israeli airstrikes, all enriched uranium had been transferred from the nuclear sites to secret hiding locations, according to i24 journalist Stein.
• Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, quoting an Iranian official, said intelligence had thwarted a major Israeli plot against Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Tehran, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iraq’s Hezbollah threatened to target US bases and close the Strait of Hormuz if Washington joined strikes on Iran, according to Al Hadath.
• An Israeli official said Iran could likely sustain the current rate of missile fire at Israel for up to five months, provided their missile launchers were not destroyed, according to NBC.
• Israel anticipated attacks from Iran’s proxies across the Middle East, according to Israel Channel 14.
• An Israeli intelligence official said the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime was far from the truth, according to NBC.

Geopolitics: Other

• A Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait after a Chinese jet approached it, according to Nikkei.
• China President Xi met with New Zealand PM Luxon in Beijing, according to CCTV.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are recovering a bit this morning after White House spokeswoman Leavitt last night said that Trump had dictated a message saying that “based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks”. 
Prior to this, several sources had pointed to a US strike on Iran possibly happening as soon as this weekend which led to a risk-off mood yesterday in the quiet US-holiday influenced session. 
So this should reduce the event risk ahead of the weekend and Brent futures, after closing the European session (+2.80%) and at the highest level since January at $78.85/bbl, are back down -2.44% to $76.93/bbl this morning. Even though US markets were closed yesterday, S&P 500 futures slid throughout the day and closed in Europe -0.93% lower with the Nasdaq equivalent -1.10%. This morning they have clawed back much of this lost ground to both be ‘only’ around -0.2% lower. 
Even with the falls this morning, Brent crude has now risen +20.52% since the start of the month, which would make this the biggest monthly jump since November 2020, back when the vaccine announcements offered a path out of the pandemic. So this is still a substantial move. 
That inflationary backdrop and earlier fears of a weekend US attack meant it was a tough environment for European markets yesterday, with equities and bonds both losing ground. So that meant the STOXX 600 (-0.83%) fell to a one-month low, with the more cyclical sectors leading the decline. Unsurprisingly, energy stocks were the main outperformer given the rise in oil prices, and the STOXX 600 Energy Index was up +0.79%. But otherwise there was a weak performance across the continent, with the DAX (-1.12%) and the CAC 40 (-1.34%) also losing ground. European equity futures are back up around +0.75% so far this morning. 
Elsewhere in Europe, the main headlines yesterday came from several central bank decisions, including the Bank of England. They left their policy rate on hold at 4.25%, as widely expected, but the vote was 6-3 to hold, with the minority preferring a 25bp cut. Looking forward, they maintained their language about a “gradual and careful approach” to easing policy, and markets continue to price another cut at the August meeting as likely. So if realised, that would continue the pattern of quarterly rate cuts since the easing cycle began last summer. In his recap (link here), our UK economist also expects the next rate cut in August, and thinks that the disinflation path remains on track, despite the recent energy news.
In other central bank news, there was a surprise from the Norges Bank yesterday, who cut rates by 25bps, despite widespread expectations for a hold beforehand. Unlike a lot of other central banks, they hadn’t yet cut rates from their peak after the tightening cycle of 2021-23, so it was an important move, and the statement said they felt it was “appropriate to begin a cautious normalisation of the policy rate.” With the decision coming as a surprise, that led to a noticeable weakening in the Norwegian Krone, which fell around a percent against the US Dollar. Otherwise, the Swiss National Bank also cut rates by 25bps yesterday (the sixth consecutive move), but that was in line with expectations. They are now back at zero with the SNB seemingly more likely than not to move into negative territory in the autumn to try to stem the rise in the Swiss Franc and to try to prevent ultra-low inflation from being embedded. There was some relief they didn’t do this yesterday though. 
Those policy decisions didn’t have too much of an effect on European sovereign bonds, with investors more concerned about the prospect of higher inflation. So that pushed yields higher across the continent, including for 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+5.9bps) and BTPs (+7.5bps). There was also a clear widening in sovereign bond spreads, consistent with the wider risk-off move, and the +5bps jump in the Italian spread over bunds was actually the biggest daily jump since early April.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning after hopes that US involvement won’t come as early as this weekend and that diplomacy still has a chance. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.15%) is leading gains, climbing to its highest level since early 2022 while being closely followed by the Hang Seng (+1.13%). Elsewhere, the CSI (+0.24%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.08%) were relatively unaffected by the PBOC’s decision to leave its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.02%) is struggling to gain traction lagging most of its Asian peers after slightly higher consumer inflation data increased expectations that the BOJ will hike interest rates further in the coming months.
Japan’s inflation data included a headline figure of 3.5% YoY (3.6% in April), a core CPI excluding fresh food of 3.7% (3.5%), and a core-core CPI excluding fresh food and energy of 3.3% (3.0%). The YoY increases in both the core and core-core CPI exceeded consensus expectations by 0.1 percentage point. However, as our economist has pointed out, the actual YoY increases in the core and core-core CPI were 3.654% and 3.259%, respectively, so the reality is that they only slightly exceeded consensus. The seasonally adjusted MoM increases were 0.5% for the core CPI and 0.3% for the core-core CPI. Short-term inflation momentum does remains strong and you can review these numbers in more details here with our economists’ view on how they influence BoJ policy. He remains on the hawkish side and expects a hike next month. 

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan (+0.09%) is gaining ground for the second straight day against the dollar, after the PBOC set fixing at the strongest level since March. 

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for May, the Euro Area money supply for May, preliminary consumer confidence for June, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoJ Governor Ueda, and the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin.

Reiterating a long-running US intelligence community consensus that Iran has not been building a nuclear bomb, US intelligence officials are warning that an American entry into Israel’s war would likely incentivize Iran to pursue becoming a nuclear-weapon state after all. Meanwhile, insiders say President Trump is wary of turning Iran into “another Libya” if Israel’s regime-change ambitions are somehow realized.   

In other major developments: 

• President Trump on Thursday issued a statement seemingly granting more time for a diplomatic solution: “Considering there’s a significant likelihood of negotiations that may or may not happen with Iran soon, I will determine whether or not to engage in the next two weeks.” 
• The Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency has advised top officials that America’s formidable 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs may be insufficient to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility buried in a mountain at Fordo — and that doing so may require a nuclear bomb. Otherwise, even in the wake of bombings of various other facilities, Iran could conceivably be capable of producing a bomb if it decided to.  
• Steve Bannon joined Donald Trump for lunch at the White House on Thursday; Bannon is staunchly opposed to America entering Israel’s war, telling an audience, “We can’t do this again. We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.”  
• Iranians have largely been cut off from the internet for more than 36 hours, with some observers claiming it reflects the government working to stifle domestic dissent, but most attributing it to Iranian wariness of potential cyberattacks.
• Israel and Iran traded more attacks over Thursday night, with the Israeli Air Force claiming it hit ballistic missile launchers, missile production facilities and a nuclear research center, and Iran hitting the city of Beersheba, with unconfirmed reports of damage to a Microsoft building.

New footage from Beersheba targeted by Iran. pic.twitter.com/QUmipEZEhr

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 20, 2025

Speaking to the New York Times, senior intelligence officials say a US strike on the uranium enrichment facility buried under 300 feet of mountainous rock at Fordo, or a US-facilitated assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would probably push Iran to build a nuclear bomb to deter further aggression against it. In 2003, Khamenei issued a religious order — or fatwa — prohibiting the development of any kind of weapon of mass destruction. That edict is “right now holding,” a senior intel official told the Times. 

One of the officials cast doubts on Israeli claims that Iran could have a bomb in 15 days. Iran would first have to take uranium it’s already enriched to 60% and enrich it to 90%. That’s probably the easiest part. Next, they’d have to construct a nuclear explosive device, and miniaturize it so it can fit inside a missile warhead. As an alternative, US intel analysts speculate that Iran could build a crude, 10,000-pound Hiroshima-style bomb that would have to be dropped by plane — which wouldn’t be a particularly credible deterrent. The analysts say that, contrary to Israeli claims, it would take between several months and a year to have a missile-ready warhead after a hypothetical decision to pursue one. Of course, it’s always worth noting that Netanyahu has been warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear bomb since 1992 — when he said they would have one by 1997 at the latest.  

🤯 WOW:
2,780 year old israelite tablet finally translated to reveal its message:
“Persia is only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon” pic.twitter.com/0KIfHABYIE

— Not Sure Gnosis 🦈 (@ViceLitty) June 18, 2025

The US assessment that Iran has not decided to pursue a nuclear weapon comes three months after the same conclusion was shared with Congress by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, which in turn came 18 years after the intelligence community first made that assessment. When confronted with Gabbard’s testimony in the wake of Israel’s bombing-and-mass-assassination attack on Iran, Trump told a reporter, “I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke.” Vice President JD Vance offered his own flimsy deflection in a social media post, writing “Tulsi’s testimony was in March, and a lot has changed since then.” Thursday’s remarks from senior intel officials severely undercut Trump’s and Vance’s characterizations.  

Unlike nuclear-weapon-state Israel, Iran is a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has long insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful. In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by which it agreed to physical modifications, additional monitoring and other provisions that would assure outsiders that the country would be incapable of enriching uranium to a weapons-grade level. Though Iran was in full compliance, President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed harsh economic sanctions on the country — having promised to do so in a 2016 presidential campaign fueled by $45 million from Israel-focused billionaires Sheldon and Miriam Adelson. His JCPOA withdrawal came just a month after Trump appointed archetypal Iran hawk and neocon John Bolton as National Security Advisor. 

After several days of the feeling that US engagement in Israel’s war could be imminent, Trump’s setting of a two-week timeframe for making that enormously consequential decision partially reflects his wariness that Iran could turn into a failed state if the Ayatollah’s regime is toppled, according to administration officials who talked to the New York Post. One of the insiders said 

“[He] doesn’t want it to turn into Libya…There are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi. The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran.”

Seeking to appease the West, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi famously surrendered his nuclear development program in 2003, only to be the victim of a US-NATO regime-change campaign in 2011 that culminated in his being anally raped with a bayonet and then savagely beaten to death. That dark chapter looms as a stark cautionary tale for rulers all around the world facing American demands. 

Meanwhile, Libyans continue to suffer from the result of that Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton toppling of Gaddafi, which led to utter chaos, blacks being sold in open-air slave markets and illegal immigrants pouring into Europe as they flee the Western-cultivated Hell-scape. Insiders say Trump has also raised the specter of the disastrous outcomes of US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.  

Trump’s confrontation with the ghosts of failed interventions — past, present and future — comes as Tucker Carlson, other major conservative figures and legions of MAGA social-media users are urging him not to get America involved in another foreign policy disaster. Is the growing right-wing uproar having an effect? 

Summary: The White House held a high stakes presser Thursday afternoon, as President Donald Trump also again convened his top national security officials in the situation room to hear intelligence officials and make key decisions on the Israel-Iran war, just prior. Of course, the biggest question that remains is: will the US directly enter the war against Iran? 

• White House quoting Trump: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
• Leavitt: Trump thinks ‘substantial chance’ of Iran negotiations
• Leavitt: Witkoff has been in touch with Iran
• Leavitt: Trump always interested in diplomatic solutions
• Leavitt: it’s the US belief that Iran has never been closer to a nuclear weapon
• Leavitt: Iran can and should make a deal or face consequences
• Leavitt: Trump remains in contact with Netanyahu
• Leavitt: Iran is in a weakened position and we have sent a deal
• Leavitt: Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon, it just needs a ‘decision’

Oil slides on the “two weeks” announcement, as the can gets kicked down the road:

The most pressing issues at stake:

• Last ditch diplomacy working? Reuters reports in a breaking development that Iran held direct talks with US over de-escalation and potentially restarting nuclear negotiations.
• The Guardian reports that Trump only wants to strike Iran only if the US can destroy the Fordow enrichment facility.
• Destruction of Fordow would at least require the 30k pound bunker buster bomb, but still may not be effective in ending Iran’s enrichment capacity.
• Netanyahu says that while regime change in Tehran is not the current goal, the option is on the table.
• Tactical nuke on the table?
• Will the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off global oil shipping?
• Reports of US bases in the region taking protective and defensive measures
• Israeli intelligence official says ‘imminent collapse’ of Iranian government is “far from the truth” – NBC reports
• Iran is warning that a “third party intervention” would spark an immediate military response
• Netanyahu has said the US has been “helping a lot” – without defining specifics

WATCH (scheduled to begin at 1300ET):

* * *

Update(1210ET): Just an hour away from a high-stakes White House press briefing, and a report in The Guardian has really upped the ante…

Donald Trump has suggested to defense officials it would make sense for the US to launch strikes against Iran only if the so-called “bunker buster” bomb was guaranteed to destroy the critical uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

Trump was told that dropping the GBU-57s, a 13.6-tonne (30,000lb) bomb would effectively eliminate Fordow but he does not appear to be fully convinced, the people said, and has held off authorizing strikes as he also awaits the possibility that the threat of US involvement would lead Iran to talks.

The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried.

Tactical nukes now? 

And there’s much, much more that needs to be considered. Likely full American military entry in to the war would spiral into full regime change in Iran. What comes next? 

Iran as a society is much larger, and with an even more complex ethnic division than neighboring Iraq… and we all remember the pandora’s box and US ‘forever war’ very well. Soon after Saddam’s toppling came the rise of ISIS and hellish decade-plus long Syrian proxy war. Have the politicians already forgotten? (or more likely they don’t care…) Adding to the chaos would be the IRGC likely closing the vital Strait of Hormuz – which would send oil prices skyrocketing.

By the day’s end we are likely to find out whether Trump will stick by being negotiator in chief… or war hawk in chief… will he listen to the likes of Tulsi Gabbard and Tucker Carlson, or to Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin? Meanwhile…

CNN put together a clip of Tulsi Gabbard testifying recently that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” followed by Trump saying “I don’t care what she said” pic.twitter.com/28CxeosC51

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 18, 2025

* * *

As Israel’s war with Iran nears the end of its first week, each side continued to inflict destruction from above in Thursday’s opening hours. In a development certain to be exploited by proponents of US intervention, the largest hospital in southern Israel reportedly received “extensive” damage after suffering a hit from an Iranian ballistic missile. Meanwhile, defying warnings of radiation dangers from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Israeli Air Force bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, even though Iran modified it pursuant to the 2015 nuclear deal to make it incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. 

In other important recent developments: 

• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said “the prime minister and I have instructed an escalation in the intensity of strikes against government targets in Tehran to destabilize the Ayatollah regime“
• Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that direct US participation in Israel’s war on Iran would spark a terrible spiral of escalation” 
• President Trump has reportedly approved a Pentagon plan for attacking Iran, but is holding off on giving the green light as he continues to seek Iran’s capitulation to foregoing any uranium enrichment — something Iran views as an intolerable infringement on its sovereignty. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he told reporters. 
• The foreign ministers of Iran, the UK, France and Germany are set to discuss the nuclear impasse in Geneva on Friday.
• MAGA conservatives continue to erupt in angry rejection of US involvement in the war Israel started, as evidenced by Tucker Carlson’s merciless evisceration of Iran hawk Ted Cruz in a viral interview  

In its initial retaliatory strikes on Israel, Iran had largely confined its missile barrages to the night. However, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) observed significant success in evading Israel’s highly-hyped Iron Dome, Iranian barrages are now increasingly coming in broad daylight, as they did on Thursday morning in a 30-missile strike that caused dozens of injuries, six of them severe: 

Video from Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/YBOFH1VckE

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) June 19, 2025

One of Iran’s missiles struck Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba, with health officials saying the explosion caused extensive damage along with injuries. Iran said the missile was aimed at a nearby Israeli military intelligence facility; the Times said the nearest military facility it knows of is over two kilometers away. Verified by the Times, this video captures the sound of the thunderous explosion blast and the huge mushroom cloud that rose up from the impact at the hospital: 

Footage posted to social media shows the moment of the ballistic missile impact at Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. pic.twitter.com/aicK9zLSnx

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 19, 2025

Israeli President Isaac Herzog emphasized that the hospital has a staff of “Jews and Arabs work[ing] side by side…caring for Israelis of all faiths and our neighbors the Palestinians.” Thanks in large part to a Wednesday evacuation of the floor that was struck, no fatalities have been reported at the hospital, and only minor injuries. Israeli officials quickly condemned the attack. “The missile fired toward Soroka Medical Center is an act of terror and crosses a red line,” Health Minister Uriel Buso told Times of Israel. Israeli critics will be quick to point out Israel’s enormously destructive campaign in Gaza has damaged or destroyed 94% of the hospitals in the territory.   

The Iranian barrage also caused major damage in the major city of Ramat Gan, an important business and educational hub just 5 kilometers east of Tel Aviv. With many modern skyscrapers, Ramat Gan has been nicknamed “the Manhattan of Israel.” Some of those shiny skyscrapers were shattered on Thursday morning, as two people were seriously injured:  

On the other side of the war map, Israeli bombs and missiles rained down on Iran, with the Israeli military announcing 40 fighter jets hit dozens of facilities, including the Arak heavy water reactor, and a facility in Natanz that Israel claims Iran is using to develop a nuclear weapon. In March, the US intelligence community said it continues to conclude that, true to its decades of assurances, Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon.    

Ironically, Israel’s attack on Arak helps draw attention to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal that Trump withdrew the United States from in 2018, sowing the seeds of the war that’s raging today. In compliance with that deal, Iran filled the heavy water reactor core with cement so it would be incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. Other JCPOA modifications were also in progress at the Arak facility. In announcing its Thursday strike, the IDF even referred to it as the “inactive nuclear reactor in Arak” — which only helps underscore the fact that the original nuclear deal was fully achieving its purpose, and it was only discarded in deference to Israel and its Western collaborators looking for a false pretense for war, one that’s astonishingly similar to the one used for the disastrous invasion of Iraq.   

Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to redesign Arak to make it impossible to produce weapons-grade plutonium, and the IAEA confirmed it filled the reactor core with cement. The Arak redesign has been underway in cooperation with China. Israel appears to have just destroyed it https://t.co/95gCmixMlG

— Evan Hill (@evanhill) June 19, 2025

Earlier in the day, Israel had warned Iranians to evacuate from the vicinity of the reactor, using social media posts that featured satellite imagery of the facility in a red circle. However, Israel’s warning came after reports that Iranians were enduring a near-total loss of internet access more than 12 hours at the last report. The outage was reportedly the work of the Iranian government; the New York Times said the move was likely motivated in part by fear of Israeli cyberattacks. Earlier this week, Israel’s US ambassador cryptically promised “some surprises on Thursday night and Friday that will make [Israel’s explosive-beeper] operation [in Lebanon] almost seem simple.”