Cryptocurrency investment products continued receiving healthy inflows last week, attracting $882 million as global crypto funds approached all-time high asset levels.
Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $6.3 billion of inflows in the past four weeks, accounting for 93% of total inflows year-to-date (YTD), according to data from European crypto investment firm CoinShares.
Total YTD inflows now stand at $6.7 billion, closing in on the record $7.3 billion posted in early February,according to CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill.
Weekly crypto ETP inflows since late 2024. Source: CoinShares
Amid strong investor demand, crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States reached a record $62.9 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous high of $61.6 billion set in February, Butterfill noted in a May 12 fund flows update.
Total AUM nears historic record of $173 billion
The continued inflow streak has brought total assets under management (AUM) in global crypto funds to $169 billion, just 2.5% below the historic record of $173.3 billion seen in the last week of January, according to CoinShares data.
Bitcoin dominated with $867 million in inflows in the past week, with YTD inflows reaching $6.6 billion and AUM rising to $146 billion.
Crypto ETP flows by asset as of May 10, 2025 (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares
Inflows to Ether investment products were less significant, posting $1.5 million inflows, with AUM edging up to $12 billion.
Sui was the biggest winner among altcoins, with Sui ETPs seeing $11.7 million of inflows last week.
Solana was the only altcoin to see outflows last week, totaling $3.4 million and dragging month-to-date outflows to $2.9 million.
BlackRock’s iShares outstrip total inflows
According to CoinShares, crypto fund inflows were again highly concentrated in BlackRock’s iShares products, which saw $1 billion of inflows last week.
Year-to-date, BlackRock has attracted $8.1 billion in inflows, significantly exceeding the industry’s total of $6.7 billion.
Grayscale and Bitwise continued to see outflows, losing $168 million and $27 million respectively during the past week. Fidelity and ARK reversed previous negative trends, reporting inflows of $62 million and $46 million, respectively.
Crypto ETP flows by issuer as of May 10, 2025 (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares
Bullish trend driven by rise in money supply, macro factors
The ongoing bullish trend in the crypto ETP industry came amid a rally in the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 for the first time since January on May 8.
Amid the growing investor sentiment, the total crypto market capitalization surged to nearly $3.5 trillion, down 11% from the historic high of $3.9 trillion posted in mid-December 2024, according to data from CoinGecko.
“We believe the sharp increase in both prices and inflows is driven by a combination of factors: a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflationary risks in the US and several US states approving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset,” CoinShares’ Butterfill wrote.
Bitcoin traded at $104,407 at the time of publication, slightly down from a historic high above $106,000 posted on Dec. 17, 2024.
Trump Rallies GOP To Back ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ As House Releases 389-Page Text
President Donald Trump on Monday called on congressional Republicans to unify behind what he hailed as his “ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” a sweeping legislative package that merges tax cuts, immigration reforms, and a raft of domestic priorities into a single reconciliation measure.
“This week the Republicans are meeting in the Tax, Energy, and Agriculture Committees on major pieces of ‘THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,'” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, urging lawmakers to stand behind House committee chairs Jason Smith of Ways and Means, Brett Guthrie of Energy and Commerce, and Glenn “GT” Thompson of Agriculture. “We must WIN! But now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our ‘GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ just got much BIGGER and BETTER. The Golden Age of America will soon be upon us.”
The comments, made just before Mr. Trump’s planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, came as his administration unveiled an executive action to lower pharmaceutical drug prices by up to 90% under a new “Most Favored Nations” pricing policy. He also lashed out at Democrats, accusing them of trying to “DESTROY our Country” by offering amendments to the bill prior to his press conference.
“When I return from the Middle East, where great things will happen for America, we will work together on any and all outstanding issues,” Mr. Trump added. “But there shouldn’t be many — The Bill is GREAT.”
Despite the urgency in his messaging, progress on Capitol Hill has been slow. Lawmakers have sent just five bills to Mr. Trump’s desk this Congress. Still, Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to change that, setting a Memorial Day deadline to pass the reconciliation package through the House. GOP leadership hopes to finalize the bill by July 4 — a timeline that coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request for a debt-limit increase included in the package.
GOP Draft Released
On Monday, the house GOP released a draft of the bill (full text below)-which confirms several core policy pillars previously signaled by leadership. Among the most consequential is a 5% remittance tax on international money transfers, designed to fund border security, which includes a new refundable credit for verified U.S. senders and strict compliance rules.
In a significant rollback of Biden-era environmental policy, the bill would terminate or phase out numerous clean energy tax credits, including for residential solar, new energy-efficient homes, and hydrogen production, with sharp limits on components sourced from “prohibited foreign entities”—primarily targeting Chinese supply chains.
The legislation also introduces a new federal income tax deduction for qualified tips and overtime compensation through 2028, aimed at working-class earners. However, these benefits explicitly exclude high earners, service-sector owners, and nontraditional tipping industries, and require both the employee and spouse to have Social Security numbers to qualify—adding a compliance hurdle that could reignite partisan fights over ID requirements.
Beyond those provisions, the bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, including the higher estate and gift tax exemptions and the limitation on the deduction of state and local taxes (SALT), with a modified $30,000 cap for individuals that phases down for high earners. This could fuel renewed conflict with blue-state Republicans still pushing for full repeal.
The bill further includes a new cap on the tax benefit of itemized deductions, revives limitations on casualty loss and moving expense deductions, and eliminates miscellaneous itemized deductions altogether—provisions likely to draw sharp resistance from Democrats, particularly those representing high-cost-of-living states.
Other notable points:
A tax break on overtime through 2028
Raises the debt limit by $4 trillion
Creates tax-exempt “MAGA” savings accounts for kids
Does not include the new millionaire tax bracket
Limits, or terminates, the tax benefit of itemized deductions
Requires a certificate to claim the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and imposes penalties for fraudulent misstatements
Terminates the IRS’s direct file program
Terminates tax-exempt status for any organization that supports terrorist organizations
Increases penalties for unauthorized disclosure of taxpayer information to $250,000 or 10 years imprisonment
Permanently extends the expanded child tax credit and requires social security numbers to claim it.
Permanently increases the qualified business income deduction from 20% to 23%.
Permanently limits the deduction of gambling losses to the extent of winnings
Key Committees Begin Markups Amid Policy Flashpoints
Meanwhile, three powerful House panels – Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, and Agriculture – are scheduled to mark up their portions of the bill this week. House Budget is expected to consolidate the legislation ahead of its presentation to the Rules Committee for a floor vote next week, according to Punchbowl News.
Ways and Means released the initial tax draft Friday, with a more comprehensive version expected later Monday. The package proposes new taxes on university endowments and a controversial remittance tax on international money transfers, aimed at funding border enforcement. Republicans have opted not to pursue a new tax bracket for the ultra-wealthy despite Trump’s earlier suggestions.
Significant modifications to clean energy credits from the Inflation Reduction Act are also included. The bill proposes repealing electric vehicle tax credits by year’s end, phasing out others over time, and adding sourcing requirements that effectively exclude Chinese components. Transferability of credits would also be curtailed.
The Energy and Commerce Committee released its bill late Sunday, drawing ire from both the right and the center. The lack of changes to Medicaid’s FMAP formula and the absence of per capita caps angered conservatives, while moderates remained cautious.
A Congressional Budget Office analysis released by Democrats estimated that the bill’s health provisions would reduce federal spending by $715 billion over a decade but leave 13.7 million more Americans uninsured. Representative Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) called the proposal “catastrophic.”
The bill also proposes a 10-year moratorium on most state-level regulations targeting artificial intelligence, a potential boon for tech companies but a likely flashpoint under the Senate’s Byrd Rule. Additionally, the bill tasks the Commerce Department and FCC with identifying 600 MHz of spectrum for auction while shielding certain defense-related frequencies from commercial use.
SALT Showdown Threatens GOP Unity
Speaker Johnson faces a crucial test Monday morning as he meets with blue-state Republicans and the Ways and Means Committee over the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Lawmakers including Representatives Elise Stefanik, Mike Lawler, Nick LaLota, Andrew Garbarino, and Young Kim have rejected a proposed $30,000 cap, citing political peril in their districts – which is in the draft released today.
Ms. Stefanik, who opposed the 2017 tax law over the SALT cap, has a fraught relationship with Johnson. Mr. Lawler is reportedly weighing a gubernatorial bid and represents a swing district. Mr. Garbarino has warned publicly that a weak SALT deal could cost him reelection. Mr. LaLota has been under pressure over Medicaid cuts, while Ms. Kim has staked her brand on delivering relief for California homeowners.
If no action is taken, the existing SALT cap will expire in January, potentially increasing pressure on lawmakers – and giving holdouts leverage.
Some Republican leaders believe the SALT debate could derail the entire reconciliation effort unless Johnson can peel off enough support from within the dissenting group.
SNAP Overhaul in the Agriculture Bill
Tuesday evening, the Agriculture Committee is set to mark up its section of the bill, including proposed cost-shifting of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to states. The package also incorporates key provisions of the bipartisan farm bill, repackaged to meet reconciliation rules. Moderates such as Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.) have signaled support after early hesitation.
House Republicans are wagering heavily on the success of this legislative push, seeking to widen and extend provisions from Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax law while slashing major components of the social safety net. With only eight legislative days left before the recess and no guarantee the Senate will follow suit, GOP leaders face a politically fraught balancing act.
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on Monday announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle, following a call in February by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan.
The Kurdish armed group, which has waged a war against Turkey since the 1980s, said that it had completed its “historic mission” and brought the Kurdish question to a point where it could be resolved through democratic politics.
The group said Ocalan should be allowed to manage the disbandment process. It also requested solid and integrated legal guarantees to ensure the success of their decision.
“At this stage, it is important for the Grand National Assembly of Turkey to play its role with historical responsibility,” the PKK’s statement said.
“Similarly, we call on all political parties represented in the parliament, especially the government and the main opposition party, and civil society organizations to take responsibility and participate in the peace and democratic society process.”
This historic announcement came after a 40-year-long conflict between Turkey and the PKK. The group initially sought Kurdish independence but later shifted its goal to autonomy and greater rights for Kurds within Turkey.
Over the decades, various governments, including that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attempted to resolve the issue through legal settlements, but these efforts were unsuccessful, and tens of thousands of lives were lost.
Since 2016, Ankara has managed to corner the PKK in northern Iraq by employing sophisticated technology such as drones and signal intelligence capabilities, as well as establishing dozens of military outposts that restrict the group’s freedom of movement and infiltration across the border.
A source familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye that the PKK’s announcement was initially set to be released on Friday, as the government had made some preparations, but internal PKK bureaucracy delayed its release.
Ocalan, 76, stated in his February address that the armed struggle was a product of a bygone era and that Kurds must seek their rights by participating in democratic societies within nation states.
Following his call, the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-armed group led by PKK offshoots in Syria, then strucka deal with the new Damascus government, promising to return control of state institutions to the central administration.
Ocalan’s call came after Turkish nationalist leader and key Erdogan ally, Devlet Bahceli, asked the PKK leader last year to disband his group, potentially in return for being released into house arrest.
Talks with Kurdish DEM party
Since then, Bahceli has promised greater democratization in Turkey through phone conversations with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. The government’s talks with Kurdish opposition groups have also divided the country’s opposition, as they come when popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has been jailed and anti-Erdogan protests have been cracked down on.
“Long live the brotherhood of the Turkish and Kurdish peoples and a fully independent Turkey!”
Not once a “Long live Kurds” or “Long live Kurdistan.”
Ankara insiders now expect the PKK and Turkish intelligence to announce specifics on how the group will return its arms and formally disband. Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity earlier this year, told MEE that legal studies were underway to allow PKK members who have not participated in armed attacks to be welcomed back to the country.
Some officials speculate that the PKK leadership will either remain in northern Iraq, potentially in Sulaymaniyah, or be allowed to relocate to Europe in exile.
The DEM Party also expects the government to release thousands of its members imprisoned on non-violent charges and to end the practice of unseating its popularly elected mayors. A key demand is the release of Selahattin Demirtas, a Kurdish-Turkish politician who has been incarcerated since 2016.
Mexico Sues Google Over ‘Gulf of America’ Label As Sheinbaum Pushes Back On Trump Renaming Order
The Mexican government has filed a legal complaint against Google after the tech giant adopted U.S. government terminology labeling the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” on its Maps platform for users inside the United States.
President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the lawsuit this week, denouncing the renaming as an overreach of U.S. territorial claims and a disregard for Mexico’s sovereignty over its own coastal waters.
“Google is already being sued. There has already been a first resolution, and it is awaited,” Sheinbaum said at a press conference. “What we are saying is that Google should put Gulf of America where it is Gulf of America, which is the part that corresponds to the territory of the United States, and put Gulf of Mexico to the territorial part that corresponds to Mexico and Cuba.”
The dispute stems from a directive issued by President Donald Trump shortly after taking office in which he renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.” Trump characterized the change as a tribute to “American greatness,” despite the gulf’s original name having been in continuous use since the 16th century.
While the order carries no international legal weight, Google has complied with the U.S. government’s naming directive within its American-facing services, citing longstanding internal policy to follow official U.S. geographic naming standards via the federal Geographic Names Information System (GNIS).
Mexico’s Foreign Ministry had previously issued letters to Google urging the company not to apply the new name to Mexican territorial waters. Those appeals were unsuccessful, prompting the current legal action.
Though symbolic in nature, the case reflects growing tensions between Sheinbaum’s administration and Washington, particularly over questions of cultural identity, regional sovereignty, and the influence of American tech companies abroad.
The name change has also sparked political controversy in the U.S. In February, the White House barred the Associated Press from the press pool for continuing to refer to the waterway as the Gulf of Mexico, accusing the news agency of “defying official nomenclature.”
President Trump had advocated for the new name since before taking office, after Sheinbaum – then Mexico City’s mayor – jokingly proposed rebranding North America as “Mexican America,” referencing a phrase in an early draft of Mexico’s constitution. That quip reportedly prompted Trump’s advisers to push the Gulf renaming as a direct rebuke.
While Trump’s executive order applies only to U.S. federal agencies and does not require recognition by other countries or international bodies, Mexico’s legal complaint could set a precedent in challenging the global reach of U.S. policies via digital platforms.
A spokesperson for Google declined to comment on the pending litigation but reiterated the company’s policy of aligning map labels with official government data in each region.
The proposed bill allocates $1.321 billion to refill the SPR and $218 million for maintenance and repairs.
It aims to repeal the SPR drawdown mandate and redirect funds away from climate initiatives.
The legislation responds to Trump’s promise to refill the reserve and criticizes Biden’s SPR releases.
U.S. House Republicans have introduced the Budget Reconciliation Bill, which will include funding to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—a key promise of President Donald Trump.
The bill proposes $1.321 billion to acquire, by purchase, petroleum products for storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and another $218 million for maintenance of, including repairs to, storage facilities and related facilities.
The bill also repeals the SPR drawdown and sale mandate.
“The bill would also begin refilling the dangerously low Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” Congressman Brett Guthrie (KY-02), Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, wrote in an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday.
Republican Congressman Guthrie also noted that “This bill would claw back money headed for green boondoggles through “environmental and climate justice block grants” and other spending mechanisms through the Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Department.”
The legislation would “reverse the most reckless parts of the engorged climate spending in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, returning $6.5 billion in unspent funds,” Guthrie added.
Earlier this year, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Administration would quickly fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
“They put it all out because they thought they could keep gasoline prices down a little bit, just go past the election, and after that, they didn’t care,” the President added, criticizing Joe Biden’s administration for failing to curb the hikes in gasoline prices.
The SPR needs to be refilled as the strategic reserve plays a critical role in stabilizing the U.S. market during global supply disruptions.
The Biden administration released more than 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR starting in 2021, amid high gasoline prices.
The Department of the Treasury claims that these releases, along with coordinated international efforts, helped reduce gasoline prices by up to 40 cents per gallon in 2022.
Iran Rejects ‘Unacceptable’ US Demand To Dismantle Nuclear Sites
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has thrown cold water on the possibility of dismantling its nuclear facilities, which Tehran maintains are only for peaceful domestic energy purposes.
But top US officials have called for just that. Starting earlier this month Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran has to ‘walk away’ from uranium enrichment and long-range missile development, while Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff just days ago went further, asserting that Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities “have to be dismantled” for Washington to trust that it does not want nuclear arms.
Pezeshkian in the fresh comments blasted the demand as “unacceptable” and framed it as a matter of national sovereignty and independent development.
“The discussion that has been raised about dismantling Iran’s entire nuclear facilities is unacceptable to us,” the Iranian president said, adding that “Iran will not give up its peaceful nuclear rights.“
Still, the country’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged Sunday that negotiations with the United States in Oman had become “much more serious and frank” – which suggests positive momentum toward restoring a deal or at least an understanding on which to build a working relationship with Washington.
Araqchi in the comments given to Iran’s state-run IRIB TV characterized “forward-moving” talks with the US over an array of complex nuclear-related issues.
This is despite last Thursday’s provocative comments given to Breitbart wherein bluntly stated, “They cannot have centrifuges. They have to downblend all of their fuel that they have there and send it to a far-away place.”
“An enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again. That’s our red line,” the US envoy asserted further.
“I just believe they have no choice” but to accept the White House position against enrichment, continued Witkoff. “Obviously, they can say no, and they can test President Trump, but I think that would be an unwise thing to do.”
Iranian leadership has tended to brush off such maximalist demands, hoping instead that they can appeal to President Trump’s pragmatic deal-making side and willingness to avoid war at all costs. Israel has long threatened preemptive attack on Iran if it believes Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuke. Trump has clearly distanced himself from these Israeli efforts to box him into a corner towards starting a new Middle East conflict.
President Pezeshkian meanwhile has continued stressing the “peaceful” purposes of the country’s nuclear sites, which include the areas of radiopharmaceuticals, healthcare, agriculture, and industry.
Despite wielding the most advanced surveillance systems in the world Fox News would have you believe that the US JUST discovered a new Nuclear facility in Iran producing weapons-grade material. How very WMD of you. pic.twitter.com/tt7jLfPpQC
“We are serious in the negotiations and seek an agreement. We hold talks because we want peace,” he said. Iranian officials have of late complained that it’s very hard to deal with the United States, given rotating administrations which have the capability to reverse key decisions of prior presidents.
Such was the case with the Obama-brokered JCPOA nuclear deal, which Trump unilaterally pulled out of in April 2018. It’s as yet unclear the degree to which that original deal’s terms will be restored or held to as part of the new ongoing talks.
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
“May you live in interesting times” is a phrase sometimes erroneously attributed as an ancient Chinese curse. The general idea being that “interesting” times are more likely to be tumultuous and hard, rather than easy and comfortable. Given that we now live in a time where established orthodoxies like “free trade is always and everywhere a good thing”, ‘the international rules-based order’ and “there will never be an American Pope” are being overturned, its fair to say that the current climate meets the standard for “interesting”.
The big market-related news this morning is the trade talks between China and the United States in Geneva over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the talks resulted in “substantial progress”, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also extolled “important progress” without offering specifics. President Trump went so far as to call the talks a “total reset” on the US-China relationship, but if that’s the case the risk-on tone in markets this morning seems underdone. Perhaps this is one of those occasions where traders’ reticence to price in “he means what he says” actually works because deep divergence of interests means that there is unlikely to be any substantive meat on these bones? Risk assets are minorly bid this morning and Bessent says an announcement of particulars will be made later today.
Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow last week to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade, marking 80-years since the defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII. At the event Xi described the relationship between Russia and China as “unbreakable” and said that they were ”friends of steel”, which might be a little awkward for the European trade boffins who see closer ties with China as a card that they can play in negotiations with the United States. Is the friend of my enemy my enemy? Or can we still be friends while I pretend that he doesn’t pal around with unsavoury characters that are fighting wars of aggression against my other, smaller friends? It’s hard to see how Europe could lay claim to usurping the USA as the new torchbearer of freedom and democracy (as some have claimed it has done) while pursuing such naked self-interest on the trade front.
Of course, others are happy to drop the pretext that they are pursuing anything other than naked self-interest. President Zelenskyy, backed by European counterparts, had offered a 30-day ceasefire in the war against Russia, but was rebuffed by Moscow who countered by offering direct talks to be hosted in Istanbul later this week. Zelenskyy, increasingly pressured by the US to cut a deal to end hostilities, says that he is ready to talk but it is unclear whether he will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in person. What IS clear is the likely terms offered by Russia for peace: no NATO membership for Ukraine, recognition of Russian dominion over Crimea, no international peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory, recognition of Russian control over territory in Eastern Ukraine and strict caps on Western military aid to Ukraine. All of that sounds a bit ‘Treaty of Versailles’, but the realpolitik here is clear: Russia is nakedly pursuing its vital strategic interests and the ‘international rules-based order’ really doesn’t feature.
Elsewhere in geopolitics, India tweaked the US’ nose for suggesting that it had brokered the tenuous ceasefire that is currently holding vis-à-vis Pakistan, and PM Modi reportedly told J.D. Vance that any further attacks from Pakistan will be met with “devastating and strong” retaliation from New Delhi. A number of news outlets have noted in recent days that the tit-for-tat exchanges between the two South Asian neighbours has provided an interesting sandbox for testing Chinese military hardware (as deployed by Pakistan) against Western weaponry increasingly adopted by India. No doubt there will be many interested onlookers should hostilities flare up again, as seems likely.
President Trump will travel to Riyadh today to meet with Saudi Arabian officials. Saudi reportedly wants to do a deal to access civilian nuclear technology, and has told the US that if they are unwilling to supply it they may look elsewhere (read, China). Meanwhile, the relationship between the United States and Israel seems to be deteriorating as the USA tries to do a deal with Iran over its own nuclear ambitions (a red line for Israel), calls time-out on strikes against the Houthis, and flirts with the prospect of recognizing a Palestinian state. Israeli PM Netanyahu is digging his heels in over extending the war in Gaza (much to the frustration of the USA) and comments attributed to Netanyahu suggesting that Israel may need to “detox” itself from US security assistance are currently spreading across social media. The trend in developments here seems to suggested that odds of diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia an Israel are lengthening, which is a win for Iran and another L for Western-liberal multilateralism.
So, the world remains in a geopolitical flux as the architecture hammered out at Bretton Woods appears to be breathing its last and Great States vie to shape the emerging global order. Markets are still ticking along though, with gold down, oil up, the DXY index back above 100, yields on US 10’s rising again and stocks opening up bid.
We may live in interesting times, but in the markets it’s all very ho-hum.
The Colorado state legislature is considering a bill that would radically chill parents’ speech. Dubbed the “Kelly Loving Act,” the bill, if signed into law, would empower judges to consider “deadnaming” and “misgendering” your child to be types of “coercive control” when they’re making custody decisions. In simple terms: if your child gender transitions and you don’t affirm their new gender identity, then a judge could consider your non-affirmation to be a form of abuse and use it as justification to deny you custody of your child.
This is a deeply chilling bill. The bill’s sponsors frame it as a way to show support for transgender people, but this bill goes way too far in stripping away parents’ rights.
Being a good and loving parent means telling your child “no.” Every parent has had these conversations.
“No, you can’t have M&Ms for dinner; eat your broccoli.”
“No, you can’t stay up until midnight. Your bedtime is ten.”
“No, you can’t hang out with Chad who’s always high; find some friends who will have a better influence on you.”
But when it comes to gender transitioning, saying “no” could be dangerous. If your son decides to socially transition and begins calling himself a girl, and you don’t unconditionally affirm that decision, then you could risk losing him if you’re ever in a child custody battle.
Some advocates of gender transitioning say that socially transitioning is harmless. After all, what does it matter if your son starts to use female pronouns and wear dresses? The problem is that socially transitioning puts many children on a conveyor belt to medically transitioning. According to a 2022 study on the topic, a stunning 97.5 percent of young people who socially transitioned continued to identify as either trans or nonbinary several years later. Nearly 60 percent went on to medically transition via either puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones.
Proponents of gender-affirming care for young people suggest that these numbers are proof that young people know their gender identity and simply need it to be affirmed; when it is affirmed, they do not waver. But this idea falls apart when we consider that the mean child in the study socially transitioned when they were just six years old. It is possible that some of these children truly are transgender. Much more likely is that, when a slew of authority figures validate a young child’s sense of identity, these authority figures reify that sense of identity. This is true even if the identity in question is not something that the child would ever have chosen had they not been prodded into it by well-meaning authority figures.
The fragile and unsteady formation of a child’s sense of identity has long been studied by psychologists. If authority figures tell a child that he or she is worthless or defective, then many children will believe that even if it is not true. If authority figures tell a child that they are stupid, or bad at sports, or shouldn’t play piano, and if the authority figures hammer this message home for years from a young age, many children will grow to believe this about themselves.
Indeed, this helps explain the rapid rise of transgender-identifying youth. As professor of psychology Jean Twenge notes, the number of young people who identify as transgender has exploded in recent years.
Some of this explosion might have to do with the fact that people who identify as transgender feel safer coming out of the closet than they might have in previous decades. But the size of the surge suggests that a lot of this is socially mediated; that is, young people are being pressured by peers or by authority figures (including by the promise of unconditional acceptance) into adopting an identity that isn’t really theirs.
“the fact that gender dysphoria now often appears in social clusters (such as a group of close friends), the fact that parents and those who transition back to their natal sex identify social media as a major source of information and encouragement, and the fact that gender dysphoria is now being diagnosed among many adolescents who showed no signs of it as children all indicate that social influence and sociogenic transmission may be at work as well.”
For many young children who are being encouraged to socially transition, the best and most loving act that a parent can take may indeed be to push back on this false sense of identity rather than reify it. There are times when parents really do know best.
When it comes to free speech, a good rule of thumb is this: the more weighty a matter is, the more essential that we be allowed to discuss it freely. The higher the stakes to vulnerable lives if we make the wrong decision, the more essential it is that everyone should have the freedom to share their perspective.
The reason is simple: free speech is a powerful vehicle for discovering the truth of a matter, because it allows everyone involved to bring their perspective and their knowledge to bear on the question. When we don’t allow all parties to speak freely, we increase the risk of making bad decisions because the blind spots and cognitive biases of the people who are allowed to speak do not get confronted. As John Milton wrote in “Areopagitica,” “Let her [Truth] and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse in a free and open encounter?”
This bill threatens to chill speech on one of the most important questions that a parent will ever have to wrestle with. If a six-year-old boy wants to socially transition, then it is essential that his parents be free to discuss the matter frankly and honestly. They should bring up their concerns. Only when both parents are free to discuss these matters openly and honestly can they help the child to navigate this decision in a way that is most likely to be in the child’s long-term best interest.
If the Colorado bill were to become law, it would put a stop to those conversations. If a mother believes that affirming her six-year-old son’s decision to socially transition isn’t in his best interest, is she going to speak up about her concerns knowing that it could potentially cost her custody of her child? More likely, she’ll be tempted to keep her concerns and opinions to herself, in order to not take the risk. But that state-enforced silence won’t help her son.
It’s easy to see the noble intentions motivating the authors of the “Kelly Loving Act.” As one of the bill’s sponsors said, “This is a bill that will … send a message to trans people in Colorado that we believe in them, care for them, and love them, and we want them to live healthy, safe lives.” We should certainly all be respectful of adults who choose to transition their sex or gender, and to love and care for them as God’s cherished children.
It’s also essential that we care for young people struggling to find their identity in a tumultuous world. But we should remember that most parents know their children and love their children far better than a judge ever could. Perhaps the most caring thing we can do for young children right now is to empower parents to raise them as the parents see fit, without unnecessary and intrusive political oversight from state agents.
Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales And Nonstop Fed Speakers
With markets euphoric over the US-China trade war truce, which in turn has made all economic data meaningless as all recent and upcoming data reports will have to be viewed on a pro forma basis, one which no longer reflect the post-truce world, one can discount the key macro events on deck this week, which are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday.
There are also several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday. Still, the market will need catalysts to kneejerk to, so let’s go over the week’s macro agenda.
Looking into the main US upcoming data in more detail, for US CPI tomorrow, DB expect the headline (+0.26% forecast vs. -0.05% previous) number to be slightly below that of core (+0.29% vs. +0.06%) with consensus for both at 0.3%. Both DB and consensus expect the YoY rate to remain unchanged at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. One of the main reasons the economists are expecting a firm core goods print is due to strong gains in vehicle prices after robust new vehicle sales in recent months. The risk to this month though is that dealers refrained from price rises in April knowing that with tariffs coming they will have to raise them soon. So we know auto price rises are coming but it may not be April.
Indeed, as DB’s Jim Reid writes, April overall may be too early for tariff price rises to show up – especially now that tariffs with China have been pushed back – but the bank’s economists advise looking out for any early signs in some of the import-heavy categories such as apparel and household furnishings and supplies.
In addition food prices could be another place to look for any early signs of the tariffs that went into place in February. The effects from the washing machine tariffs in early 2018 took about two months to start showing up in the CPI data.
For PPI on Thursday, DB and the consensus expect a 0.3% monthly print on headline and core but we’ll pay more attention to the components that feed into core PCE as usual. Retail sales on the same day will be the other big release of the week: here economists expect slight dips in auto sales and gasoline prices to weigh on headline (unch. vs. +1.5%) and ex-autos (+0.2% vs. +0.6%) sales. However they expect retail control (+0.4% vs. +0.4%), which feeds into GDP, to remain solid. The potential curveball is if consumers have front loaded purchases ahead of tariffs and we get strong data.
Thursday is a busy day as Powell speaks and this will provide him with an opportunity to comment on the data if he’s sees anything meaningful within it. So one to watch especially given that Powell said last week that “we don’t know which way this is going to shake out”.
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday May 12
Data: US April federal budget balance, Japan March BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, April bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, Denmark April CPI
Central banks: Fed’s Kugler speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor and Mann speak
Earnings: UniCredit, Petroleo Brasileiro
Tuesday May 13
Data: US April CPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan April M2, M3, Germany May Zew survey, March current account balance, Eurozone May Zew survey
Central banks: BoJ’s summary of opinions from April meeting, ECB’s Escriva, Knot and Makhlouf speak, BoE’s Governor Bailey and Pill speak
Earnings: Munich Re, Sea, JD.com, Bayer, Venture Global, On Holding
Wednesday May 14
Data: Japan April PPI, Canada March building permits
Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Jefferson and Daly speak, ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
Data: US April PPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, March business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK Q1 GDP, Japan April machine tool orders, Germany April wholesale price index, Italy March general government debt, Eurozone Q1 employment, March industrial production, Canada April housing starts, existing home sales, March manufacturing sales, Australia April labour report, Norway Q1 GDP
Central banks: Fed’s Chair Powell and Barr speak, ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson, Guindos and Villeroy speak, BoE’s Dhingra speaks
Earnings: Walmart, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Mitsubishi UFJ, Deere, Applied Materials, National Grid, 3i Group, Engie, Take-Two, RWE, Cava
Friday May 16
Data: US May University of Michigan survey, New York Fed services business activity, April building permits, housing starts, import and export price indices, March total net TIC flows, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Italy March trade balance, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada March international securities transactions
Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, BoJ’s Nakamura speaks, ECB’s Lane speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont
Other: European Commission Spring Economic Forecasts
* * *
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday.
Monday, May 12
There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
10:25 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium in Dublin. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 2, Kugler said, “Given the recent lack of progress on inflation, recent increases in inflation expectations, and upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes… I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.”
Tuesday, May 13
06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, April (consensus 95.0, last 97.4)
08:30 AM CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Core CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.42%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.4%); Core CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.83%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.30% increase in April core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged on a rounded basis at 2.8%. Our forecast reflects a decline in used car prices (-0.5%) reflecting a decline in auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%) reflecting a decline in incentives, and a large increase in the car insurance category (+0.7%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as apparel, recreation, and communication) worth +0.06pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to decelerate on net after last month’s pick up (OER +0.28% vs. +0.40% in March; primary rent +0.29% vs. +0.33%) but expect a slight rebound in the lodging away from home component after last month’s sharp decline (+0.5%). The source data for the health insurance component is updated semiannually with the April and October reports. We expect this update to result in negative health insurance inflation over the next six months (we forecast -0.5% for April). We estimate a 0.31% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.3%) and energy (+0.4%) prices.
Wednesday, May 14
There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
05:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on central bank research at an event in Rabat, Morocco. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 14, Waller said, “While I expect the inflationary effects of higher tariffs to be temporary, their effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy.” He also added, “If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.”
09:10 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event. Speech text is expected. On April 3, Jefferson said, “In my view, there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”
05:40 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat at the California Bankers Association’s 2025 Annual Conference & Directors Forum. Q&A is expected. On April 9, Daly said, “We’ve got policy in a very good place right now… with growth good and policy in a good place, we have the time and ability to tread slowly and carefully.”
Thursday, May 15
08:30 AM Empire state manufacturing survey, May (consensus -8.0, last -8.1)
08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +1.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): We estimate core retail sales expanded 0.4% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a boost from consumers frontloading purchases ahead of tariffs. We estimate unchanged headline retail sales, reflecting lower auto sales and gasoline prices.
08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.3%, last +0.1%)
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 19 (GS 223k, consensus 230k, last 228k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 12 (consensus 1,890k, last 1,879k)
08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS -15.0, consensus -10.5, last -26.4)
08:40 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give remarks on the framework review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference. The conference will focus on discussing the central bank’s monetary policy framework review. Speech text is expected. During the FOMC press conference on May 7, Powell said about twelve times that monetary policy is in a good place and the FOMC can wait and see how the economy evolves for now. He noted that both trade policy and its economic effects remain uncertain, and he reiterated that tariffs could put the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in tension. As a result, he said, “Right now there’s no need to make a choice and no real basis for doing so.”
09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); Manufacturing production, April (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last +0.3%); Capacity utilization, April (GS 77.8%, consensus 77.9%, last 77.8%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.1%, as strong natural gas and electricity production outweigh weak oil and mining production. We estimate capacity utilization remained at 77.8%.
02:05 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will give opening remarks at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium. Speech text is expected. On May 9, Barr said, “The size and scope of the recent tariff increases are without modern precedent, we don’t know their final form, and it is too soon to know how they will affect the economy.” He also added, “I am equally concerned that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment as the economy slows, thus, the [Fed] may be in a difficult position if we were to see both rising inflation and rising unemployment.”
Friday, May 16
08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS +2.0%, consensus +3.1%, last -11.4%); Building permits, April preliminary (consensus -1.2%, last +0.5%)
08:30 AM Import price index, April (consensus -0.3%, last -0.1%)
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 53.2, consensus 53.0, last 52.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 4.4%, last 4.4%)
Indian Stocks Log Best Day In 4 Years As Ceasefire With Pakistan Holds, Airports Reopen
The ceasefire between India and Pakistan which ended nearly a week of intense border fighting which included heavy cross-border shelling, aerial engagements, and drone warfare is holding into Monday. Washington, New Delhi, and Islamabad are celebrating.
Signs of normalcy and life are fast returning to both sites of the restive Line of Control (LOC) in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir regions, where the fighting took place. India’s aviation authority announced Monday that 32 airports in hard-impacted northern regions of the country have reopened.
Airports across Srinagar, Chandigarh, and Amritsar had been ordered closed, all commercial flights halted, since May 9th and the launch of India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ – meant as retaliation for last month’s Pahalgam terror attack which left 26 mostly Indian tourists dead.
Both India and Pakistan had at one point imposed blanket suspensions of civilian aviation across broad swathes of their countries, and various international carriers had paused service to the warring countries, during what was the worst fighting in decades.
The ceasefire went into effect after Trump’s major Saturday morning announcement, which was around 5pm in India and Pakistan that “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.” He lauded the leaders of both countries for “using common sense and great intelligence.”
Still there were reports of some violations, but nothing major in terms of sustained shelling has come out of it:
Hours after the ceasefire was announced on Saturday, India accused Pakistan of violating it by shelling border regions. Residents across major towns in Kashmir were on their toes, once again, after drones reappeared in the skies.
One of the worst-affected places in Kashmir during these days is Uri, a picturesque town of pear orchards and walnut groves close to India’s contested border with Pakistan.
There are various regional reports saying that in many of these hardest-hit villages and towns along the border, people are actually returning to their homes, in a sign of optimism that the peace will hold. Some market headlines also point to optimism:
INDIA’S NIFTY 50 INDEX JUMPS 3% AFTER CEASEFIRE WITH PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN’S KSE-30 SURGES 9.2% ON INDIA TRUCE, IMF LOAN PAYOUT
TRUMP: LEADERSHIP OF INDIA, PAKISTAN UNWAIVERING
TRUMP PRAISES FULL, IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE BETWEEN INDIA, PAKISTAN
Reuters: Indian stocks log best day in 4 years on border truce; Pakistan shares surge
Monday trading saw the Nifty50 close above 24,000; and BSE Sensex rallied 3,000 points to cross 82,400. Overall this constituted a sharp rally of nearly 4% in India’s benchmark indices.
To be expected, both sides are claiming a ‘win’ – however, India reportedly lost up to five jets in hostile encounters. Both sides have thanked Trump for his peace mediation efforts, meanwhile.
“We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region,” said Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Days prior to the ceasefire, Vice President J.D. Vance had explained to Fox News that Washington would not get involved militarily, but would use its diplomatic might: “What we can do is try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we’re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” he said.
Everyone is happy except for mainstream media, it seems…
In this conflict at least, Trump has fulfilled a campaign promise to essentially be a ‘peace’ president who negotiations the end to wars, and avoids starting them. This is certainly a diplomatic win as be departs for a Middle East tour (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE).
Meanwhile, Trump addresses India-Pakistan peace on Monday…
Trump on India-Pakistan conflict:
I said come on, we are going to do a lot of trade with you guys, let’s stop it. Let’s stop it. If you stop it we are doing trade, if you don’t we are not going to do any trade. pic.twitter.com/VsJ4AlVDHq
