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Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing

Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, about 200,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth, which ultimately keeps the economy growing. That is because, as discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, the consumer comprises about 70% of economic growth. To wit:

There is currently no evidence that the economy is slipping into a recession. However, if you want to know if an economic decline will evolve into a recession, there is one key factor to consider: consumer spending. Consumer spending comprises nearly 70% of the GDP calculation, and everything else, from business investment to imports and exports, is a function of the consumer’s “demand.” In other words, if the consumer is slowing down or contracting spending, businesses will not “invest” in expansion projects, increasing employment, or buying more products for resale. That relationship is shown in the chart below, which compares PCE to employment and private investment.”

However, most crucially, consumers can not consume without producing something first. Production must come first to generate the income needed for that consumption. The cycle is displayed below.

Here is the most critical point. Not all jobs are equal.

“For a household to consume at an economically sustainable rate, such requires full-time employment. These jobs provide higher wages, benefits, and health insurance to support a family. Part-time jobs do not.”

While the media touts the ‘strong employment reports,’ such is mostly the recovery of jobs lost during the economic shutdown. However, the reality is that the full-time employment rate is falling sharply. Historically, when the rate of change in full-time employment dropped below zero, the economy entered a recession.

Notably, given the surge in immigration into the U.S. over the last few years, the all-important ratio of those employed full-time relative to the population has dropped sharply. As noted, given that full-time employment provides the resources for excess consumption, that ratio should increase for the economy to continue growing strongly. However, full-time employment has decreased since the turn of the century as automation, technology, and offshoring have risen. While President Biden recently touted strong employment growth in his SOTU address, full-time employment as a percentage of the working-age population failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Notably, sharp downturns in full-time employment have been coincident with recessionary onsets.

No Recession, But Slower Growth Coming

The latest employment data put to rest recession concerns, at least for now. Employment growth remains strong enough to support economic growth and quell concerns that CEOs are withdrawing from the job creation process. However, compensation continues to decline as economic demand slows.

As is always the case, as the economy slows down, employers begin to change the most costly aspect of any business – employment. Cutting full-time jobs is the most efficient way to protect earnings and profitability. However, employers tend to hang on to employees as long as possible, as good employees are expensive to train and hard to replace. Eventually, if the demand falls too much, full-time employees are sacrificed to protect profits. As such, a reasonably predictable cycle continues until exhaustion is reached.

While we are seeing declines in full-time employment as the economy slows, we are now also seeing cuts in temporary help, which, as shown, is consistent with slowing growth. The reason is that cutting temporary employment is the first step by business owners to reduce employment costs while hanging on to full-time, and mostly crucial, employees. However, as noted above, once temporary workers are exhausted, the next step will ultimately be full-time employees.

The latest employment data did not provide much support for the “recession” crowd in 2025. As such, Wall Street analysts are quickly reversing their recession calls for this year, and are becoming more focused on slowing economic growth. However, that assessment can certainly change promptly if personal consumption expenditures take a turn for the worse. As noted above, nearly 70% of economic growth is derived from consumption; therefore, if consumption declines, employment falls, reducing consumption and further employment declines. When it accelerates, that cycle is the foundation for recession outcomes.

Indicators We Are Watching

As noted, while the employment data is weak, there are certainly indicators we are watching closely to confirm whether “job loss” is accelerating. First, we pay attention to the Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence. Since the October 2022 lows, CEO confidence has continued to improve, and as of Q1, it rose to 60 from 51 in Q4 of 2024. That confidence increased full-time employment as the outlook for economic growth was improving heading into 2025. However, this is a lagging indicator, and the results of the Q1 survey were taken in February before the market decline and tariff announcements. Later this month, we will get an update to see if sentiment has changed, which could give us clues about future employment reports.

The second indicator we are watching is the NFIB small business confidence index. Specically,.it is their “plans” to increase employment versus what they do. Notably, employment by small businesses, roughly 50% of the total employment in the U.S., has remained stagnant since the pandemic. However, small business owners were very optimistic about hiring post-pandemic, expecting sharp improvements in sales. However, that optimism is fading quickly.

The reason is that, as discussed at the opening of this discussion, employment is a function of the demand for goods and services that businesses supply. As shown, expectations for sales surged following President Trump’s election, but given that actual sales have failed to materialize, that optimism is fading rather quickly. Expectations for business owners are one thing, but without actual increases in sales, which drive revenue, there is little reason to increase full-time employment, which is why it has remained stuck at lower levels since 2020.

Conclusion

Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come first in the cycle, attention to employment data, particularly full-time employment, is crucial to determining economic risk. The risk of a recession remains very low; however, that can change if something causes consumption to contract quickly. Aside from an unexpected, exogenous impact, investors should expect economic growth to continue to slowly weaken to a longer-term trend slightly less than 2% annually. Unfortunately, while not recessionary, that growth rate will make it hard for corporate profitability to remain at record levels.

Eventually, a valuation adjustment in the financial markets will reflect the reality of a slow-growth economy. However, that isn’t today. However, the risk of a decade of low returns as markets normalize for a slow-growth economy is steadily increasing.

Just something to consider.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 16:35

Teenagers With Mental Health Disorders Spend An Extra Hour On Social Media

Teenagers With Mental Health Disorders Spend An Extra Hour On Social Media

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Adolescents diagnosed with mental health conditions spend nearly an hour more on social media daily than their peers and are twice as likely to compare themselves negatively to others online, according to new research.

DimaBerlin/Shutterstock

The study, involving 3,340 adolescents in the UK, suggests troubling patterns for teens with anxiety and depression, who report having less control over their social media use and greater mood fluctuations depending on the comments and likes they receive on social media.

“Our study doesn’t establish a causal link, but it does show that young people with mental health conditions use social media differently than young people without a condition,” said lead author Luisa Fassi, a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, in a press statement.

She said the differences between children with and without mental health conditions may stem from the way these conditions influence how adolescents interact with online platforms—or possibly from social media use contributing to their symptoms. “At this stage, we can’t say which comes first—only that these differences exist,” Fassi added.

Differences by Condition Type

The study, recently published in Nature Human Behavior, analyzed data from a 2017 survey of 3,340 UK adolescents between the ages of 11 and 19. Professional clinicians interviewed the teenagers and, in some cases, their parents and teachers.

Researchers distinguished between conditions affecting internal feelings—such as anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder—and those involving outward behaviors like attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and conduct disorder.

Teens with conditions affecting internal feelings, like depression and anxiety, showed the most significant differences in social media behavior.

Social comparison—meaning comparing themselves to others online—was twice as prevalent among adolescents with anxiety and depression compared to those without mental health conditions: 48 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

These teens were also significantly more likely to report mood changes in response to social media feedback—28 percent versus 13 percent—and felt less in control of their time spent on these platforms.

This pattern was not seen in children with ADHD, ODD, and conduct disorders.

Dr. Ritu Goel, a board-certified integrative psychiatrist specializing in child, adolescent, and adult mental health, told The Epoch Times that the pattern makes clinical sense.

Teens dealing with anxiety or depression are often more emotionally sensitive and vulnerable to criticism or rejection, she said. “Social media amplifies these feelings because it’s filled with unrealistic portrayals of happiness and success. They might feel left out or not good enough, significantly deepening their emotional struggles.”

The researchers also found that teens with diagnosed conditions spend approximately 50 minutes more on social media compared to those without.

Beyond time spent online, all adolescents with mental health conditions also tended to report greater dissatisfaction with the number of online friends they had.

“Social media platforms assign a concrete number to friendships, making social comparisons more conspicuous. For young people struggling with mental health conditions, this may increase existing feelings of rejection or inadequacy,” Fassi said.

She noted that friendships play a key role in shaping adolescents’ sense of identity.

Why Social Media May Worsen Symptoms

Teens with mental health conditions often use social media in ways that can reinforce or worsen their symptoms, said Sanam Hafeez, a neuropsychologist and director of Comprehend the Mind in New York.

When people passively scroll through social media, they encounter idealized images that lead to negative social comparisons.

Many people develop an obsession with checking likes, comments, or messages, which leads them to base their self-esteem on online reactions,” Hafeez said. “People who post online to confirm their worth experience disappointment when their posts don’t receive the positive feedback they expected.”

The constant exposure to idealized images, peer conflicts, and subtle exclusion can heighten feelings of anxiety and rejection. Nighttime social media use can also disrupt sleep, which plays a key role in emotional health. Together, these patterns can deepen the cycle of depression and anxiety.

Interestingly, aside from the time spent on social media, researchers found few differences in social media behavior among teens with externalizing conditions like ADHD or conduct disorders.

How Parents and Doctors Can Help

Parents and mental health professionals should collaborate to guide teens toward healthier social media use, Goel said.

Mental health professionals can teach teens critical thinking skills about online content and emotional self-regulation strategies,” she said. “Parents can support these efforts by actively monitoring social media usage, setting clear boundaries for online and offline activities, ensuring a balanced daily routine, and promoting open conversations about online experiences.”

Goel emphasized that encouraging regular offline interactions and hobbies can further help teens build resilience and maintain a healthy emotional balance.

Hafeez recommended establishing tech-free times and encouraging offline social connections, emphasizing that teens should “feel supported rather than controlled,” making it easier for them to develop lasting, healthy digital habits.

*  *  *

Just a few hours before cutoff!

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 15:25

Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor Asks Lawyers To ‘Stand Up’ And ‘Fight’

Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor Asks Lawyers To ‘Stand Up’ And ‘Fight’

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor told a lawyers’ conference that amid escalating criticism in the nation of some federal judges, lawyers need to “stand up” and “fight this fight.”

Sotomayor made the comments during an on-stage conversation on May 8 at an American Bar Association conference at the Smithsonian Museum of African American History and Culture in Washington.

The remarks by Sotomayor came after President Donald Trump, members of his administration, and Republicans in Congress have repeatedly criticized court rulings in recent months that have blocked or delayed the president’s agenda. Trump and some lawmakers have accused some judges of overstepping their authority through such rulings and called for them to be impeached.

Several federal judges have said the Trump administration has not complied with various court orders on immigration enforcement, federal spending, the firing of government employees, and foreign aid. The administration denies that it disobeyed the orders.

Sotomayor did not identify Trump or other officeholders who have criticized judges’ rulings by name.

“Our job is to stand up for people who can’t do it themselves. And our job is to be the champion of lost causes,” said the associate justice who joined the Supreme Court in 2009 after being nominated by President Barack Obama.

“But right now, we can’t lose the battles we are facing. And we need trained and passionate and committed lawyers to fight this fight.”

“With all the uncertainty that exists at this moment, this is our time to stand up and be heard. For me, being here with you is an act of solidarity,” Sotomayor added.

Sotomayor also praised “diversity,” which she said “is important for its own sake because it inspires everyone to believe that it’s possible for them to be in a position to help others.”

“I am more grateful that in my role as a public servant, I can continue to serve all communities and represent America as the very best version of itself,” she said.

Sotomayor’s comments came after two of her colleagues on the high court had also recently made public statements directed at the criticism of judges.

On May 7, Chief Justice John Roberts said an independent judiciary was needed to check the power of the president and Congress.

Roberts did not mention Trump or other officeholders by name during his comments that came during a visit to his birthplace of Buffalo, New York.

Judicial independence is “the only real political-science innovation in our Constitution,” said Roberts, who became chief justice in 2005 after being nominated by President George W. Bush.

In the Constitution, “the judiciary is a co-equal branch of government, separate from the others, with the authority to interpret the Constitution as law and strike down … acts of Congress or acts of the president,” he said.

“And that innovation doesn’t work if … the judiciary is not independent. Its job is to … check the excesses of Congress or of the executive, and that does require a degree of independence.”

Roberts also said, “impeachment is not how you register disagreement with [judicial] decisions.”

“That’s what we’re there for,” he said, in reference to the appeals process.

On May 1, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said that recent criticisms of judges are “attacks on our democracy.”

Jackson was apparently commenting on Trump’s rhetorical barrages against some judges, although she did not specifically mention the president during her speech and instead spoke about “the elephant in the room.”

“The attacks are not random. They seem designed to intimidate those of us who serve in this critical capacity,” Jackson said at a judicial conference in Puerto Rico.

“The threats and harassment are attacks on our democracy, on our system of government. And they ultimately risk undermining our Constitution and the rule of law.”

Jackson took her seat on the high court in June 2022 after being nominated by President Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 14:15

Trump’s ‘Nuclear’ Deportation Options

Trump’s ‘Nuclear’ Deportation Options

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The battle between the Trump administration and the federal courts on the topic of deportation is intensifying.

The outlines are clear. Biden and his corrupt cronies left the U.S. southern border wide open for four years. Estimates vary but it’s likely 8 million illegal aliens crossed the border. But the actual number could be 10 million or higher. Of course, some just came for a better opportunity, but many were murderers, terrorists, rapists, sex traffickers, Chinese spies and every sort of violent low life you can imagine.

It’s nearly impossible to find and deport 8 million people. Biden made sure of that by ignoring the procedures for tracking and documenting the alien invasion. Trump’s policy of “remain in Mexico” while immigration cases were pending was abandoned by Biden. Many of the illegals got court dates, but those were scheduled years in advance. The expectation was that the court notices would be thrown in the trash, the illegals would not show up in court, and no enforcement action would be conducted.

Trump has launched a major deportation effort despite these handicaps. In any situation where you can accomplish part of the task but not all, the first move is to prioritize elements so you can devote resources to the best effect. Trump has done that also. He has prioritized the worst of the worst – criminals and terrorists – for early deportation. That reduces crime and violence in the U.S. and gives Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) a chance to hone their techniques for the larger task ahead.

The New Obstacle – The Courts

Now, Trump has encountered a new obstacle. It’s not the illegals, the Democrats or the media. It’s the federal court system, especially rogue district court judges appointed by Biden and Obama. To be clear, the rogue judges don’t work in a vacuum. The plaintiffs are hand selected to create sympathy in the media (although there’s little sympathetic about a rapist) and are represented in court by lawyers backed by well-funded NGOs and activist organizations.

It’s not as if the illegals have the resources to appeal cases to the Supreme Court on their own. They don’t need them. From Soros on down, the fight against deportation is well-funded and skillfully lawyered. The lawyers present everything the judges need to tear down Trump’s agenda.

There are hundreds of cases involving thousands and potentially millions of illegal aliens now pending in the courts. Trump has been losing most of these cases at the district court level, but it’s reasonable to expect some success at the circuit court and Supreme Court levels. But that takes time.

Rather than review the docket case-by-case and issue-by-issue, it may be useful to step back and look at the forest instead of the individual trees. The radical neo-Marxist lawyers don’t care about the individual defendants. They don’t care about blocking individual deportations. They don’t even care about the law. What’s going on is far more pernicious and damaging to Trump and the country.

There’s a lot of talk about the Constitution, but a pure illegal does not have full constitutional rights. The courts have afforded them some limited rights such as freedom from torture and freedom of religion. The difficulty with the pending Trump deportation cases is that radical lawyers are concocting status arguments that allow the illegals to upgrade their status.

The Goal Is Not Justice – It’s Delay

This legal upgrade can be based on asylum claims, pending immigration court dates, and some blanket grants for temporary residence. Some illegals are married to legals, etc. Once you’re in one or more of those categories as a plaintiff, you receive more rights including due process and habeas corpus, even if not full constitutional rights.Alexjandro Mayorkas knew what he was doing when he opened the border under Biden. He wanted the illegals to have a one-way ticket and made it extremely difficult to deport any.

Here’s the point. What the left is trying to do is to create a set of rulings that will force Trump to litigate every single case. No mass deportations. No deals with foreign countries to take plane loads of illegals for incarceration in local prisons. Instead, each case will be heard individually. Each claim will be raised in a separate proceeding. Each due process argument will be heard in a separate trial.

This approach will do more than delay deportations. It will jam the court dockets. It will overwhelm the judicial branch. It will prevent the smooth functioning of a range of government functions.

Now imagine this technique expanded beyond deportation. You can apply this court-jamming massive litigation approach to the closing of government agencies, the termination of government employees, the cuts in government spending and the entire Trump agenda. Don’t just litigate. Grind the entire system to a halt. That’s the plan.

Do individual legal victories in certain cases help Trump? Not necessarily. The activist lawyers and their armies of illegals just file a new lawsuit in a different jurisdiction with slightly varied facts and start the process all over again. Is there any end to it?

Three Solutions To The Problem

One is for the Supreme Court to issue a definitive ruling that district courts cannot issue nationwide injunctions, can only issue orders for the plaintiffs in the case and not the entire class of illegals, and that the courts have almost no jurisdiction over the conduct of foreign policy. Those rulings would empower Trump’s deportation programs.

The second way is for Trump to ignore the courts and proceed as planned. Critics will scream this is “unconstitutional”, but it’s just as unconstitutional for courts to ignore their limitations and intrude on the power of the executive branch. It’s an outcome the courts will have brought upon themselves.

The third way is to abolish the district courts, or at least some of them. That’s not as radical as it sounds. The Constitution clearly gives Congress the power to structure the court system any way it likes with the exception of the Supreme Court. Congress created the district courts and Congress can abolish them as well.

If one of those three paths is not taken, then the left wins. In that case, the country loses. We already have four Supreme Court votes to support Trump’s program (Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh). It only takes one more vote to win. Roberts and Barrett are the two swing votes. Let’s hope they lean the right way when the crucial case arrives.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 13:05

Bessent Says US, China Made “Substantial Progress” On Deal After “Very Constructive” 2 Days Of Negotiations

Bessent Says US, China Made “Substantial Progress” On Deal After “Very Constructive” 2 Days Of Negotiations

Just hours after Trump praised China tariff talks, saying that “great progress” had been made and that a “total reset” of relations was on the table, the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China concluded moments ago, and there was more good news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the US and China made “substantial progress” adding that they will share more details on Monday.

The announcement followed hours of meetings between Bessent, Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The talks were hosted by the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations, whose residence was used as the venue for the two countries’ teams.

Here are the Bloomberg and Reuters headlines after day 2:

  • BESSENT: US, CHINA MADE ‘SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS’ ON DEAL
  • GREER: IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND HOW QUICK WE CAME TO AGREEMENT
  • THIS WAS A VERY CONSTRUCTIVE 2 DAYS
  • DIFFERENCES NOT AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
  • BESSENT: COMPLETE BRIEFING COMING TOMORROW MORNING

Bessent said that “talks were productive” and involved China’s Vice Premier, two Vice Ministers who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson and myself.” Bessent said that he “will be giving details tomorrow.”

“I spoke  to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. There will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”

Separately, USTR Jamieson Greer said that “it’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement which were that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.”

“That being said, there was a lot of groundwork that went into these two days… we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to resolve, work toward resolving that national emergency.”

Tensions between the world’s two biggest economies reached a new high point after President Donald Trump steadily increased tariffs on Beijing to 145%. The duties are supposed to address China’s role in the fentanyl trade, its massive trade surplus with the US, and respond to Beijing’s retaliatory measures imposed after Trump’s opening salvo. China in response increased its tariffs on US goods to 125%. Looking forward, however, Goldman expects a substantial drop in tariffs, expecting them to be cut by at least a half.

The tariff tit-for-tat led to a standoff between the world’s two largest economies, with neither side wanting to budge and no off-ramp in sight; however amid the economic slowdown, both sides acknowledged a reduction in tensions and tariffs is necessary and public talks were announced.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 12:40

“Absurd Conspiracy”: French Media Rushes To Quash Claims Macron, Merz & Starmer Caught Hiding Cocaine On Kiev-Bound Train

“Absurd Conspiracy”: French Media Rushes To Quash Claims Macron, Merz & Starmer Caught Hiding Cocaine On Kiev-Bound Train

French media are on the defensive after journalists unexpectedly entered a train carriage carrying French President Emmanuel Macron, along with the German and British Prime Ministers, en route to Kyiv on Friday, which sparked a firestorm on social media with allegations of cocaine use by the top leaders.

“They [social media users] cite videos that allegedly show Emmanuel Macron discreetly hiding a strange white bag on the table,” the French daily newspaper Libération said, adding, “And according to these accounts, Friedrich Merz even had a straw to use to take drugs. These conspiracy accusations fit with the narrative that Western elites are depraved and approach war unconsciously.” 

When reporters entered the room, Macron was meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on a train ride from Poland to Ukraine. 

The video.

Libération rushed to the defense of Macron and the Western leaders:

Several internet users, sharing posts favorable to Vladimir Putin, have claimed that the three men had used cocaine together. “Coke will decide World War III,” one of them feigned concern.

Libération even suggested:

High-quality photographs and videos, such as those taken by the AFP or AP news agencies , show that the mysterious bag of white powder is actually a handkerchief rolled into a ball that was placed on the table before Keir Starmer arrived and the cameras entered the booth, where Macron and Merz were already seated. The straw looks more like a stirrer or a toothpick, which the German chancellor is said to have been fiddling with. This explains why the two leaders do not want these objects immortalized in the images of the meeting.

Maybe Libération’s defense of Macron and the other Western leaders is accurate — perhaps it really was just a ‘handkerchief’ and a ‘toothpick.’ But the real red flag is the leaders’ abrupt and suspicious behavior as they scrambled to cover up whatever was on the table when journalists unexpectedly entered the train carriage

Cocaine allegations come as no surprise, considering the leaders were inbound to visit this guy… 

This song seems appropriate… 

Cocaine or no cocaine. The optics here are not good. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 12:00

In Volatile Markets, RWAs Like Gold Are A Lifeline

In Volatile Markets, RWAs Like Gold Are A Lifeline

Authored by Kevin Rusher via CoinTelegraph.com,

It’s a volatile world out there. This year, we’ve seen stocks take a wild ride as gold has pumped and crypto has been caught somewhere in the middle. Investors have dumped risk assets and scrambled for safe havens. Gold is leading the charge.

While gold is safe, it is not very hard-working. Unlike cash and treasuries, the yellow metal does not generate income. Now, more than ever, investors need to be able to earn yield on gold — particularly in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

The only way to make money from gold is to buy low and sell high. Most investors don’t tend to buy gold like this. That’s for good reason — over the long term, gold’s performance is typically consistent, if not without a few peaks and troughs here and there, as we have recently seen.

For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the price of gold soared 148% but stagnated for nearly a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered another rally, and it’s likely we will see gold hold, if not fall from it’s new record high once markets revive. While it remains an excellent hedge, gold’s long-term track record is not a growth story.

Investors prefer US Treasurys or high-yield savings accounts as part of a balanced portfolio. While gold may outperform these assets in uncertain times, it offers a better balance of security and predictable income over the long term. 

The DeFi solution 

This is where DeFi brings innovation to the world’s oldest asset. DeFi can significantly modernize gold investing, offering the speed and transparency of blockchain-based transactions and the ability to earn returns.

Currently, though, most tokenized gold is much the same as holding it in an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Stablecoin giants like Tether and Paxos have launched gold-backed tokens, which they say are fully backed by physical, audited gold reserves, yet offer no yield.

Most DeFi investors prefer liquid, tradable assets like cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, which can generate attractive returns. Many would rather, for example, buy Tether’s USDt stablecoin and stake it, earning rewards while still maintaining ownership.

Perhaps this is why the market capitalization of gold-backed tokens remains modest. Tether Gold, the world’s most significant gold token, has a market capitalization of just under $835 million, for example, while Paxos Gold sits at around $799 million. Combined, this is equivalent to just 1% of the market cap of USDT. 

Unlocking income from the world’s oldest asset 

To unlock gold’s full potential, we need to take tokenization a step further by creating a DeFi ecosystem where tokenized gold is actively put to work — borrowed, lent and integrated into yield-bearing strategies.

One possibility is for companies such as gold miners is to issue tokenized versions of their reserves that can be turned into stablecoins that can then be staked to earn a yield. Leveraging protocols whose liquidity mechanisms enable the trading of stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokens, holders could take advantage of further yield opportunities throughout the DeFi ecosystem.

Beyond the benefits of yield opportunities, blockchain technology means investors in tokenized gold can benefit from the flexibility of 24-hour trading, near real-time price discovery and near-instant settlement without compromising the stability of the asset. 

The future of gold investing

It is, perhaps, ironic that — just as governments worldwide are starting to put their stamp of approval on digital finance — gold is becoming a highly desirable commodity again. The public’s interest in it will grow as governments essentially ratify digital finance. At the same time, the appetite for gold in these uncertain times will also increase. 

DeFi could bring these trends together and kickstart a natural evolution in gold ownership that provides a solid bridge between traditional and digital finance. While gold inside traditional markets attracts investors looking for stability, DeFi brings opportunities that don’t compromise that stability, as it presents new and unique yield opportunities. 

Gold has captivated humanity for thousands of years. It’s the foundation of myths, the standard of wealth and the ultimate hedge against uncertainty. But in today’s financial world, it needs an upgrade.

Through integrating gold into the DeFi ecosystem, we could unlock its true potential — not just as a store of value but as an income-generating asset. The world’s oldest safe haven asset is finally on the brink of a digital evolution.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 11:40

Trump Admin To Accept ‘Palace In The Sky’ 747 Jet From Royal Family Of Qatar, ABC Says

Trump Admin To Accept ‘Palace In The Sky’ 747 Jet From Royal Family Of Qatar, ABC Says

New details emerged on Sunday morning, revealing that the Trump administration could soon receive one of the most valuable gifts from a foreign government: a Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from Qatar’s royal family. The 747 will be retrofitted with communications systems and other equipment to transform into Air Force One.

ABC News cited people familiar with the transfer as saying that the royal family of Qatar’s jumbo jet gift will be announced next week when President Trump visits Qatar for his Middle East tour—the first major tour of his second term. The tour will concentrate on business deals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources said the 747 will be transferred to the United States Air Force to meet the technical specifications required to fly the president and supporting staff members.

For months, President Trump has been overly frustrated with delays in Boeing’s new Air Force One production timeline. 

Earlier this month, a Wall Street Journal report said the president commissioned defense contractor L3Harris Technologies to convert the luxury 747 into Air Force One, with a completion timeline by fall of this year. 

In February, FOX Business’ Edward Lawrence confirmed that Boeing had suffered global supply chain snarls that changed project timings and delayed the completion date to 2029. 

White House communications director Steven Cheung told FOX Business then: “It is ridiculous that the delivery of a new Air Force One airplane has been delayed for such a long time.”

Also in February, the president toured the Qatari 747 at West Palm Beach International Airport and told reporters he was “not happy” with Boeing.

Considering that the U.S. president is not allowed to receive gifts from foreign governments, the 747 jet will be transferred to the USAF (U.S. Gov’t), not Trump personally. Yet we’re likely going to see a news cycle filled with misinformation and disinformation from deranged leftist journalists who claim this was a personal gift. 

ABC quoted sources that provided more color on the legality behind the gift:

Anticipating those questions, sources told ABC News that lawyers for the White House counsel’s office and the Department of Justice drafted an analysis for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth concluding that is legal for the Department of Defense to accept the aircraft as a gift and later turn it over to the Trump library, and that it does not violate laws against bribery or the Constitution’s prohibition (the emoluments clause) of any U.S. government official accepting gifts “from any King, Prince or foreign State.”

Sources told ABC News that Attorney General Pam Bondi and Trump’s top White House lawyer David Warrington concluded it would be “legally permissible” for the donation of the aircraft to be conditioned on transferring its ownership to Trump’s presidential library before the end of his term, according to sources familiar with their determination.

The sources said Bondi provided a legal memorandum addressed to the White House counsel’s office last week after Warrington asked her for advice on the legality of the Pentagon accepting such a donation.

. . . 

The plane will then be transferred to the Trump Presidential Library Foundation no later than Jan. 1, 2029, and any costs relating to its transfer will be paid for by the U.S. Air Force, the sources told ABC News.

The Qataris certainly outdid themselves ahead of welcoming the president. So, what will the Saudis and Emiratis offer? We suspect these countries will try to outdo one another when making deals with the president next week.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 11:05

They’ve Destroyed Jobs And Opportunity For Black Chicagoans

They’ve Destroyed Jobs And Opportunity For Black Chicagoans

By Ted Dabrowski of Wirepoints

Illinois and Chicago politicians have made a mess of opportunities for blacks in Chicago. In preparation for my Chicago Tonight’s Black Voices appearance last week – more on that later – I pulled together several key facts on how Chicago blacks were fairing vs. the nation’s other big cities. The data, straight from the U.S. Census or the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, is dismal.

Chicago is stuck in a vicious spiral, where too much spending has led to too much debt, including massive pension debts. Taxes, as a result, have become increasingly punitive. Pile on top of that failing schools and crime, and that’s chased out people and businesses, driving down job creation and investment. Based on the data, minorities are paying a big price relative to their peers in other big cities.

At the core of Chicago’s failure is a lack of economic growth. The metro area’s GDP, after adjusting for inflation, has grown only 4% since 2019. That’s the worst economic growth among the nation’s 15 largest metro areas. 

It’s quite the opposite for cities with pro-growth, pro-business policies. The economies of booming metros like Dallas, Seattle, Miami and Phoenix have all grown 17% or more. That’s more than four times the growth rate of Chicago.

Unsurprisingly, jobs are a problem. At 12.3%, Chicago’s black unemployment rate was the highest among the nation’s 15 biggest cities, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Jacksonville’s black jobless rate was half that of Chicago’s, and Charlotte’s was just a third.

A less dynamic economy also means lower paying jobs. The median income for black households in Chicago is just $44,413 after adjusting for cost of living. That’s the third-lowest amount among big cities.

Chicago’s black poverty rate also leads among the nation’s 15 biggest cities. Over 26% of black Chicagoans are below the poverty line – nearly 200,000 people.

And then there’s government dependency. Nearly 57% of black Chicagoans are enrolled in the food stamp program SNAP – the 3rd-highest percentage among America’s 15 big cities.

Despite the above, my fellow panelists on the Chicago Tonight show called for even more spending and tax hikes in the 2026 Illinois budget in the name of supporting the black community. 

One panelist laid out a long string of programmatic spending he wanted to see, including money for schools and healthcare and early childhood and transit funding. The other panelist laid out how to pay for it. A CTBA staffer, she called for a 1.5 percentage point hike in Illinois’ personal income tax rate to 6.45%, and if not that, then an expansion in the sales taxes to include services. A link to the segment is here

If I’m generous about their ideas, yes, tax increases in the short term can generate more money for more social programs. But more spending and tax hikes will only exacerbate the downward spiral Chicago is already in, creating even more dependency.

Chicagoans need the opposite. Instead of more spending and the tax hikes that go with it, lawmakers need to obsess about jobs, investment and economic growth. 

Businesses and investment will only return when lawmakers tackle what makes the city so costly. Its massive $53 billion in pension debts need major reform. Chicago Public Schools can bring down its $30,000 per student spend by closing near-empty schools and cutting back on its bloated bureaucracy. The city’s transit agencies need to stop running near-empty trains and buses and instead right-size their operations. And the public unions, in particular the teachers union, need to be de-powered

The problem is that our current leaders wear as a badge of pride how many people they can get on Medicaid and food stamps. They ignore the fact that people, no matter their color, can’t thrive without good jobs and good pay.

Illinois needs a new set of lawmakers that will prioritize economic growth over government dependency.

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 10:30

DeBeers Shutting Down Its Lab-Grown Diamond Brand

DeBeers Shutting Down Its Lab-Grown Diamond Brand

De Beers, the world’s largest diamond producer by value, is shutting down its lab-grown diamond jewelery brand, Lightbox, marking a strategic retreat from selling synthetic gems to consumers, according to a report from mining.com.

This move aligns with De Beers’ renewed commitment to natural diamonds, a return to the philosophy behind its iconic “Diamonds are Forever” slogan, the report says.

The decision also follows parent company Anglo American’s efforts to streamline operations as part of a broader restructuring. Anglo American, which put De Beers up for sale last year, continues to evaluate options for the 137-year-old business.

The mining.com report says that De Beers entered the lab-grown jewelery market in 2018, reversing its long-held policy of limiting synthetic stones to industrial uses.

However, in June last year, it announced a production halt for Lightbox as part of a five-year plan to simplify its operations and reassert its leadership in the natural diamond and diamond jewelery market.

Element Six, De Beers’ synthetic diamond division that previously supplied Lightbox, will now concentrate exclusively on industrial markets.

“Element Six is well-positioned to seize the rapidly growing potential for synthetic diamond applications across a range of future-facing technologies,” the company stated.

This exit from the synthetic jewelery space comes amid significant turbulence in the diamond market. Weak demand from China and an oversupply of lab-grown diamonds have depressed prices, complicating Anglo American’s plans to divest.

After recording a $1.6 billion writedown last year, Anglo American further slashed De Beers’ valuation by $2.9 billion in February. At that time, CEO Duncan Wanblad noted that De Beers could remain part of the group until 2026, depending on market conditions.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/11/2025 – 09:55