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How It Worked…

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How It Worked…

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“They never prepared for algorithms that could map everything. For personnel pre-positioned everywhere. For a president who counts every week like it’s his last.” 

– VP JD Vance

If you wondered since 2016 how come the blob and the Democratic Party were aligned so exquisitely in their operations to destroy populism (personified by Mr. Trump) and to permanently entrench single party power in America for all time to come, it’s because an endless font of taxpayer money was streamed into countless non-governmental orgs creating a shadow civil service of Democratic Party activists that melded seamlessly with the big policy-making agencies.

The money was laundered through manifold layers of these orgs and their sub-orgs to pay for an ongoing “color revolution” in the USA — lawfare, election fraud, propaganda, censorship, career cancellation, medical fuckery, open borders, and other totalitarian ploys — while enriching political players at all those manifold layers from multi-millionaire congressmen and senators to thousands of NGO officials making six-figure salaries to street hustlers like Patrisse Cullors of Black Lives Matter and “anti-racism” racist Ibram X. Kendi and his $50-million Center for Antiracist Research at Boston University (recently axed) — and, of course, ultimately the former Potemkin president “Joe Biden” and his family.

It was all this money that drove eight years of sponsored insanity. Mainly, it kept the hands of the Democratic Party firmly on the levers of power so that nothing could be done about the insults and injuries they were inflicting on our country. So, is it a mystery now that nobody was prosecuted for burning the cities in 2020, or for magically creating millions of extra “Joe Biden” votes out of nowhere that year, or setting up the kickback machine from Ukraine to Congress, or forcing millions to get a janky vaccine?

Pam Bondi is going to be a busy girl. 

The DOGE has uncovered a government racketeering operation of which the USAID scandal is but one cog in a colossal engine of grift. What the public, including you readers, may not appreciate is how much planning went on over the past year to mount the DOGE effort, and how comprehensively the work of its many hundreds of computer techies (not just six whiz-kids) has laid bare the money-trails out of previously impenetrable government computers. Their algorithms have pierced the firewalls, revealing decades of fraud and deceit.

Mr. Trump’s cabinet officers have started the job of dismantling the machine by getting rid of the employees who set it up and worked for it. By Thursday, Secretary of State Rubio, fired all but 300 of the 10,000 people working for USAID. CIA Director Ratcliffe offered the agency’s entire workforce a “deferred resignation” option that will allow them to bail out and still collect their salaries until September. Look for straight-up firings to ensue. Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove ordered the acting FBI director to terminate eight senior FBI officials and asked for a review of up to 5,000 involved in J-6 investigations (including, presumably, agents who engaged in abusive SWAT-team deployments).

Many lawsuits have been mounted by blob-adjacent attorneys to make all this stop. But one big problem for them is that their gigantic legal fees — hundreds of dollars an hour on the meter multiplied by x-hundreds of lawyers— were previously paid by exactly those NGOs that are getting shut down now. So, perhaps you see exactly how those levers of power worked. The money will have to come from somewhere else, and I doubt that Silicon Valley billionaire blob-supporter Reid Hoffman wants to piss away the rest of his fortune on this.

Some actual persons will have to be held accountable for all the mischief carried out in rogue agencies over many years. It has to start somewhere. I nominate Samantha Power as a first test case. She was in charge of USAID for nearly four years — until Jan 20, 2025 — including the duration of the Ukraine War. She was also personally very busy hands-on in arranging attempted color revolutions in Hungary (failed, against Viktor Orban), Georgia (failed), Mexico (failed), and Brazil (succeeded against Jair Bolsonaro). Ms. Power provided money from USAID-connected NGOs to foster instability in many more countries, including our country. It must have come as quite a shock to her that Kamala Harris did not win the 2024 election. USAID will not be paying for Ms.Power’s legal representation.

Much more will come to shock the blobsters and their legions — though just now, as the reformation of government begins, it’s comforting just to think of all those dedicated seditionists, Wokesters, Marxians, and Jacobins unable to make their rent payments or buy groceries all of a sudden. The paychecks have stopped coming for thousands who wanted to turn American life upside-down and inside-out. This happened most colorfully at the fake-news outfit called Politico this week. Turned out they were a subsidiary of the blob. Who knew? (Everyone who was paying attention to the jive they published.) Management had to send out a memo that reporters and editors would not get paid this week, or maybe ever again. Boo hoo.

It was also revealed this week that the Reuters News Agency, the Associated Press, The New York Times, the Wash-Po, and around 700-other news outfits altogether had been receiving financial support from USAID, the CIA, and other government entities. Now do you understand why the Democratic Party voters are so obdurately deluded and deranged?

Besides the perfunctory lawsuits filed against DOGE and the agency chiefs, the response to all this corrective action has been surprisingly feeble. You might conclude that they couldn’t marshal the rioters this time because the money for rioters has been cut off. Instead, you saw a motley pack of political creeps — Jamie Raskin, Ayanna Pressley, Liz Warren, Chuck Schumer, Maxine Waters, Jasmine Crockett , Ilhan Omar —crying crocodile tears outside USAID HQ at 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. They looked like roaches after the exterminator’s visit.

The reform of our gone-rogue government is barely underway, notwithstanding these mighty initial actions. Yet to come, you have the whole filthy underbelly of the public health agencies who brought you Covid-19. The terrified Democrats are holding back confirmation of Patel, Gabbard, and RFKJr, but even if they fail to get confirmed, the new administration will put capable figures in those jobs at FBI, ODNI, and HHS. The party of Chaos must know that they cannot stop the dismantling of their evil machine.

Beyond these grifts lies the Okefenokee of treason, bribery, conspiracy, and sedition deriving from RussiaGate, the impeachment of 2019, and all the shenanigans emanating out of Ukraine since the Maidan Revolution in 2014. Turns out, it was all of a piece. The same cast of characters were involved in all these nefarious events. I believe we’ll see those “Joe Biden” preemptive pardons tested in the SCOTUS. You haven’t begun to hear about the cases that AG Bondi will have to consider in that giant hairball. It’s only her second day on the job. Have mercy.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 16:20

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Surges By Most On Record Despite All-Time High APRs

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Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Surges By Most On Record Despite All-Time High APRs

We have repeatedly warned that with their savings – and especially “emergency covid savings” – gone or nearly gone, Biden admin savings data manipulation notwithstanding…

… US consumers had no choice but to max out their credit cards in order to “extend and pretend” their moment of purchasing greatness, or as we called it two months ago, their last hurrah (see In “Last Hurrah”, Credit Card Debt Explodes Higher Despite Record High APRs As Savings Rate Craters), a hurrah that would last very briefly as it was only a matter of months if not weeks before said cards were denied.

One month later, that’s exactly what happened, when to our surprise, revolving credit cratered at the fastest pace since the covid crash, contracting a whopping $7.5 billion, an event which for a country that lives on debt – literally – is unheard of outside of a recession.

Commenting on the plunge, we said that “we don’t know what sparked this sudden reversal in the favorite American pastime – i.e., to buy stuff one can’t afford and hope to pay it back some time in the future for a modest 29.95% APR – but we know what didn’t: falling rates… because they didn’t.” We then proceeded to show that the average interest rate on credit card balances were at the second highest on record ever though the Fed had already cut rates by 100 bps.

And while it would have been normal, if not expected, for credit card balances to continue declining with savings rates near record lows and with credit card rates at record highs, trust the US economy to do precisely the opposite of what is logical and according to the latest just released consumer credit data, US consumers exited 2024 with a bang after Consumer credit soared by a record $40.8 billion in December, a complete reversal of the $5.4 billion November drop, and a month that sticks out like a sore thumb in the history of consumer credit as shown below.

The December print is all the more remarkable when considering that Wall Street consensus was for a $14.6BN consumer credit print. This means that the actual number was a 4 sigma beat to expectations, the biggest on record for this particular data series

Taking a closer look at the number, while non-revolving debt (i.e. student and auto loans) rose modestly as it always does rising by $18 billion, it was revolving, or credit card debt, that cratered soared by a whopping $22.3 billion, a remarkable reversal to the $14 billion drop in November which was the biggest drop since the covid crash shut down the economy, and the biggest monthly increase on record.

And while last month’s unexpected drop could at least have been explained with the fact that credit card APRs were at all time highs (currently 23% up almost 10% from a decade again), the fact that APRs remained there just under a record high certainly does not explain why US consumers scrambled to max out their credit cards at the end of 2024, just as their savings accounts hit the lowest level in years.

While the surge in credit card usage may explain the burst in spending to end the year, there is only so far that an economy can be pushed with maxed out credit cards.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 15:46

A Third Of All US States Now Exploring Bitcoin, Crypto For Public Funds

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A Third Of All US States Now Exploring Bitcoin, Crypto For Public Funds

Authored by Vince Dioquino via Decrypt.co,

A growing wave of U.S. states are pursuing legislation to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves or enable crypto investments for public funds, opening a shift in state-level fiscal policy.

Out of 50 U.S. states, 16 have ongoing legislative considerations and varying statuses.

Utah stands out as the state closest to a potential implementation.

The state’s Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments bill was passed and recommended on third reading by the Economic Development and Workforce Services Committee through the House, with a majority vote of 8 to 1 on January 28.

Utah’s bill would authorize the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of certain public funds to “qualifying digital assets,” as long as they meet the main requirement of having over $500 billion in market capitalization, averaged over the past 12 months.

While the bill does not explicitly mention Bitcoin in its language, only Bitcoin categorically passes the core requirement in terms of market capitalization.

Dennis Porter, CEO of Satoshi Act Fund, pointed out this contention on X after Justin Bechler, a Bitcoin advocate, argued that Porter’s characterization of the bill was misleading due to Utah’s Money Transmitter Act.

On the Bitcoin trail

Though a total of 17 states have filed for similar proposals,North Dakota‘s proposal was notably rejected on February 4, according to data visualized by the Bitcoin Reserve Monitor.

Several other states are considering similar moves to allow Bitcoin or crypto for use in public funds.

State-level momentum continues building, with New Mexico becoming the latest entrant. Senator Anthony L. Thornton introduced the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB275) on February 4, proposing a 5% allocation of public funds to Bitcoin.

Arizona’s Senate Finance Committee has advanced similar legislation, passing SB1025 which would permit up to 10% of public funds, including pension systems, to invest in cryptocurrencies.

A bill before the Arizona state senate would encourage the state’s portfolio of retirement plans for government workers to include Bitcoin ETFs. Adoption of the digital asset is proposed in Senate Concurrent Resolution 1016, introduced by state Sens. Jake Hoffman and Warren Petersen along with Rep. Joseph Chaplik. The non-binding resolution highlights the explosive market interest in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs following the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, noting that the top cryptocur…

Wyoming and Massachusetts have also joined the race, with the latter opening its rainy day funds to be invested in Bitcoin or any digital asset for up to 10% of its stabilization fund.

Texas, meanwhile, has taken a different approach with dual proposals. The state has a Senate bill in the works that would allow up to 1% allocation from its general revenue fund balance.

It also has a separate House bill focused on Bitcoin donations, with provisions for crypto payment conversions to Bitcoin. So far, neither has advanced to law.

From Oklahoma and Missouri to New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, various states in the U.S. have either proposed or pending bills, with the legislative status of these bills across 16 participating states actively being tracked by Bitcoin Reserve Monitor.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 15:25

NCAA Changes Trans Athlete Policy After Trump EO

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NCAA Changes Trans Athlete Policy After Trump EO

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) announced Thursday that following President Trump’s executive order prohibiting biological males from competing in women’s sports it has changed its transgender athlete policy.

The order will remove funding from any schools that force female athletes to compete or share changing facilities with males. 

It is a massive turn around on the issue for the NCAA in just a few months.

NCAA President Charlie Baker commented “We strongly believe that clear, consistent, and uniform eligibility standards would best serve today’s student-athletes instead of a patchwork of conflicting state laws and court decisions. To that end, President Trump’s order provides a clear, national standard.”

The development was celebrated by Riley Gaines, the former University of Kentucky swimmer who has fiercely campaigned for women’s rights in sports since her 2022 loss to trans-identifying male swimmer Lia Thomas.

“I can’t even begin to tell you how vindicating it feels knowing no girl will ever have to experience what my teammates and I did. Thank God Trump is back in office,” Gaines urged.

Other female athletes expressed joy at the development.

President Trump himself responded to the NCAA’s announcement, writing “This is a great day for women and girls across our Country. Men should have NEVER been allowed to compete against women in the first place, but I am proud to be the President to SAVE Women’s Sports.”

Trump added, “We expect the Olympics Committee to also use Common Sense, and implement this policy, which is very popular among the American People, and the entire World!”

Underscoring how popular the policy is, an ad featuring Riley Gaines produced by pro women in sports Athletic clothing company XX-XY has gone mega viral.

In the ad, Gaines and Reno volleyball captain Sia Liilii listen to the radio as a talking head accuses the women of being “right-wing bigots” over their opposition to men participating in women’s sports.

The ad, titled ‘Real Girls Rock’ has been viewed millions of times after author JK Rowling also shared it.

XX-XY Athletics CEO Jennifer Sey reacted to Rowling’s comments in a Fox News interview:

The company also posted an emotional reaction to Trump signing the executive order  to protect women’s sports.

They are also calling on other major sports brand companies to make a stand for women’s sports.

 

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Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 14:40

Lost In Today’s Job Revision Chaos: Over 1 Million Foreign-Born Workers Found A Job… And No Native Borns

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Lost In Today’s Job Revision Chaos: Over 1 Million Foreign-Born Workers Found A Job… And No Native Borns

Slowly, the unprecedented payrolls fabrication of the Biden administration, which we spent much of the past 4 years exposing to our readers, is starting to unravel.

Earlier today, the BLS confirmed what we previewed last night (see “Tomorrow’s Jobs Report Will Finally Capture The Surge In Illegal Aliens, Lead To Another Big Negative Payrolls Revision“), and admitted what we had been saying for much of the past 3 years – that most of the job gains in the past few years, and especially 2024, were a mirage, and following the dramatic August 2024 preliminary data revision which vaporized 818K jobs (which had never existed in the first place)…

… today we finally saw the details behind this near-record revision.

As part of its annual revision to both the Establishment and Household survey, today the BLS said that the “seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 589,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 598,000, or -0.4 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the past 10 years is 0.1 percent.” As a result, the over-the-year change in payrolls for March 2024 was revised from +2,900,000 to +2,346,000.

Another, perhaps easier way of showing just how dramatic this negative revision to the jobs data series is the following chart showing the monthly change in payrolls pre and post revision. One can immediately see just how much uglier it is, not only because the average increase in monthly payrolls drops for all three prior years (2022 from 441K to 380K, 2023 from 231K to 217K, 2024 from 186K to 166K), but because all of a sudden, those two lonely sub-100K prints in August and October (which only emerged as sub-100K following monthly revisions) were not that lonely and we now learn that June and July were also sub-100K prints.

In short, just as we have been warning since early-2024, the wheels of the US jobs market were falling off in mid 2024, and by the Trump came on board, the jobs market has become one giant Potemkin village on the verge of collapse.

Another highlight from today’s data revision, this time impacting the Household Survey is that the massive gap between the Household and Establishment survey which we have noted on multiple occasions in the past, closed nearly by half when the BLS revised the number of employed workers higher by 2.2 million, to 163.9 million from 161.7 million, largely as a result of the BLS admitting that there are millions of illegal workers in the US, a topic which until the election was especially sensitive politically but no longer is. That said, there is still another 2 million jobs to go to close the gap, but we are confident that shouldn’t be much of a problem.

And the reason why it won’t be a problem is simple: while it won’t get much discussion today, the biggest reason behind today’s solid increase in the number of employed workers is the same one we have been pounding the table on since 2023. It’s all foreign workers, and – as we explained recently – it is mostly all illegal aliens.

That’s right, the BLS reported that in January, over a million, or 1,045,000 to be precise, foreign-born workers found a job (and as Standard Chartered explained lst June, this is largely illegal or “undocumented” aliens) compared to only 8,000 native-born workers!

This means that while we just hit another month of record foreign-born (largely illegal alien) workers, at 31.774 million, the number of native-born workers remains unchanged over the past six years, still below levels last hit in 2019, just before the covid crisis.

This also means that since July 2018, the US labor force has added 4.6 million foreign-born workers, while the number of native-born workers has declined by nearly 700K.

And while this (not really) shocking increase in foreign workers, which really is just the latest in a long series of monthly reports confirming that the only job growth in the US in the past 6 years has been for foreigners, is clearly the result of Biden’s policies, we would recommend that president Trump do something to urgently if not immediately address this critical topic… a topic which one year ago we correctly predicted would win Trump the 2024 election – and which if left as is, will promptly lead to the transformation of the current euphoria in Trump’s presidency, with disappointment.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 14:20

14 States To File Lawsuit Against DOGE Access To Government Payment Systems

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14 States To File Lawsuit Against DOGE Access To Government Payment Systems

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A coalition of 14 state attorneys general said on Thursday that they will file a lawsuit to stop the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing sensitive federal payment systems.

The coalition said that DOGE, an advisory committee led by tech billionaire Elon Musk, has no authority to access federal government systems—which they said contain Americans’ personal data, state bank account data, and “some of our country’s most sensitive data.”

“This level of access for unauthorized individuals is unlawful, unprecedented, and unacceptable,” the coalition said in a statement released by New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin.

“DOGE has no authority to access this information, which they explicitly sought in order to block critical payments that millions of Americans rely on—payments that support health care, childcare, and other essential programs.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent granted DOGE access to the Treasury’s payment system after Trump took office on Jan. 20. DOGE has been tasked with reviewing agencies for potential downsizing and termination, including the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), to reduce federal spending and boost government efficiency.

The attorneys general also argued that President Donald Trump “does not have the power” to grant DOGE access to Americans’ private information or to withhold federal payments approved by Congress.

They planned to pursue legal action to defend “our Constitution, our right to privacy, and the essential funding that individuals and communities nationwide are counting on.”

The coalition includes Platkin and attorneys general from New York, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

On Feb. 5, a coalition of labor unions sued to block DOGE access to federal payment systems, alleging that it violates “constitutional limits on executive power” and “laws protecting civil servants from arbitrary threats and adverse action.”

The plaintiffs—which include the AFL-CIO, the Service Employees International Union, and the Economic Policy Institute—sought a temporary restraining order or administrative stay against DOGE.

Justice Department attorneys issued a proposed order on Feb. 5 saying the federal government will temporarily restrict DOGE from accessing information in the Treasury Department’s payment system and allow special government employees “read-only” access to payment records.

“The Defendants will not provide access to any payment record or payment system of records maintained by or within the Bureau of the Fiscal Service,” it said.

The proposed order followed an incident in which Democratic members of Congress attempted to enter the Treasury building on Feb. 4, saying they wanted to provide oversight after DOGE was granted access to the federal payment system. Democratic lawmakers have been calling for the access to be revoked.

Trump had previously said that Musk would not be able to take any action without approval from the White House and assured that the government would prevent him from acting in cases of conflict of interest.

“Where we think there’s a conflict or there’s a problem, we won’t let him go near it, but he has some very good ideas,” the president told reporters at the Oval Office last month.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 14:00

Trump DOJ Hits Illinois, Chicago with Lawsuit Over Sanctuary Laws

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Trump DOJ Hits Illinois, Chicago with Lawsuit Over Sanctuary Laws

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

This one will stick. The courts will uphold this. I expect Trump will win.

Pam Bondi Begins Crackdown on Sanctuary Laws

A Department of Justice lawsuit asserts that sanctuary laws in Chicago, Cook County and Illinois have obstructed federal efforts to enforce immigration policy.

On this score, I expect the courts will side with Trump.

RedState reports There She Goes: Brandon Johnson, JB Pritzker Hardest Hit As Pam Bondi Begins Crackdown on Sanctuary Laws

Newly minted Attorney General Pam Bondi has wasted no time, issuing directives that call for “aggressively enforcing criminal laws passed by Congress” and “vigorously defending presidential policies and actions on behalf of the United States against legal challenges.”

And on Thursday, Bondi made another big move, filing a lawsuit against Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois related to their so-called “sanctuary” laws.

“The challenged provisions of Illinois, Chicago, and Cook County law reflect their intentional effort to obstruct the Federal Government’s enforcement of federal immigration law and to impede consultation and communication between federal, state, and local law enforcement officials that is necessary for federal officials to carry out federal immigration law and keep Americans safe,” the lawsuit states.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Chicago, is one of the first major cases brought by the new administration’s Justice Department.

Bondi’s move follows a request from House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) for four sanctuary city mayors to testify at a hearing in March, with the goal being to assess if new legislation would be needed.

The mayors who were urged to appear before the committee were Chicago’s Brandon Johnson, Boston’s Michelle Wu, New York City’s Eric Adams, and Denver’s Mike Johnston. Comer confirmed on Wednesday that all of them had agreed to appear at the March 5th hearing.

I should note that both Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker were practically daring the Trump administration to come after them, and clearly they’ve taken them up on the insinuated offers.

Trump Administration Sues Illinois

The New York Times reports Trump Administration Sues Illinois Leaders Over Immigration Enforcement

The lawsuit names Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago and Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, both Democrats, along with Superintendent Larry Snelling of the Chicago Police Department and other local elected officials in the nation’s third-largest city. It is believed to be the new Trump administration’s first legal action against state and local officials to try to make them provide more assistance in federal immigration enforcement.

The lawsuit asserts that local and state officials’ lack of cooperation with federal enforcement of immigration laws has resulted in “countless criminals being released into Chicago” who should have been subject to deportation.

Illinois and Chicago have laws in place to limit their cooperation with federal agencies’ efforts to deport undocumented immigrants. The Illinois Trust Act, which prevents local law enforcement from holding immigrant prisoners without a court warrant, was signed into law in 2017 by former Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican.

Toni Preckwinkle, the president of the Cook County Board of Commissioners, who is named as a defendant in the lawsuit, said that the county’s policies “reflect our longstanding values and ensure that local resources are used to promote public safety and community trust. We will review the complaint and respond accordingly.”

Several immigration advocacy groups in Illinois filed a lawsuit against Immigration and Customs Enforcement last month in an effort to block the agency from conducting certain immigration operations in Chicago.

Trump DOJ Slaps Illinois, Chicago with Lawsuit

Fox News reports Trump DOJ Slaps Illinois, Chicago with Lawsuit Over Sanctuary Laws.

The lawsuit filed in Illinois, against Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and others, claimed that several state and local laws are “designed to and in fact interfere with and discriminate against the Federal Government’s enforcement of federal immigration law in violation of the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution.”

President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border on day one of his administration as part of a slew of moves to crack down on illegal immigration and increase border security. The lawsuit claims there is a national crisis of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. and presenting “significant threats to national security and public safety.”

“Further exacerbating this national crisis, some of these aliens find safe havens from federal law enforcement detection in so-called Sanctuary Cities where they live and work among innocent Americans, who may later become their crime victims,” it says.

“Upon information and belief, the conduct of officials in Chicago and Illinois minimally enforcing—and oftentimes affirmatively thwarting—federal immigration laws over a period of years has resulted in countless criminals being released into Chicago who should have been held for immigration removal from the United States,” it says.

Pritzker said that “unlike Donald Trump, Illinois follow the law.”

“The bipartisan Illinois TRUST Act, signed into law by a Republican governor, has always been compliant with federal law and still is today. Illinois will defend our laws that prioritize police resources for fighting crime while enabling state law enforcement to assist with arresting violent criminals,” he said. “Instead of working with us to support law enforcement, the Trump Administration is making it more difficult to protect the public, just like they did when Trump pardoned the convicted January 6 violent criminals. We look forward to seeing them in court.”

See You in Court

“We look forward to seeing them in court,” said Pritzker.

I asked my constitutional law expert friend about this case, and he responded:

This will be an interesting case. I would place big money on the DOJ winning. It’s just very clear that the feds own immigration policy. 

A lot of people hate Trump to the point of blind range.  But by the time this gets to the 7th Circuit – the federal Court of Appeals that governs Chicago, the DOJ will win. The 7th Circuit has some very good judges.

Perhaps it’s a little complicated due to the strange decision on Texas, but if it gets to the Supreme Court, I think Justice Roberts will just bury it.

Very Clear

That is what I said when the courts prevented Texas from enforcing immigration policy.

And I took a lot of flack for that call, but that’s what happened.

Now, guess what? Biden is no longer running the border, thank God, so the shoe is on the other foot.

When I make a court case call, it’s not based on what I want to happen, it’s based on what I think will happen.

I am sure Trump will lose on birthright citizenship, and I correctly thought the court would strike down, at least temporarily, Trump’s executive orders on USAID, but this one looks solid.

But this is different. Biden got to do what he wanted with immigration policy (and he made a damn mess of it to say the least).

Now Trump gets his way.

That said, I still hope for some common sense. Deport them all will be very costly. And if Democrats were smart they would cooperate with Trump and opt for a reasonable deal.

If you want to know what kind of dreamer deal I hope for, please see my November 7, 2024 post The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 11:05

What’s Keeping Corporate America Up At Night? Three Themes From Earnings Calls 

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What’s Keeping Corporate America Up At Night? Three Themes From Earnings Calls 

Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted three key themes emerging from this earnings season that are top of mind for corporate America: the impact of tariffs and an escalating trade war, the strength of the US dollar under the Trump administration, and the developments in artificial intelligence on their businesses.

Analysts led by David Kostin identified the first major issue facing company management teams this earnings season was the growing uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade war and the risks of tit-for-tat tariffs with China.

“Tariffs were top of mind during this quarter’s earnings calls as companies were focused on their plans to accommodate potential policy changes under the new administration,” Kostin wrote, adding those companies already discussed “a wide range of plans related to tariffs,” such as “pre-ordering items to get ahead of the tariffs.” 

Trade war fears resulted in nearly half of all SP500 companies discussing tariffs during earnings calls. Tariff discussion is back to levels not seen since Trump’s first term. 

US stocks with elevated overseas exposure have faced downward pressure. 

The second concern with corporate America, according to the analysts, is a strong dollar: 

Companies grappled with a stronger US dollar during 4Q, as the trade-weighted US dollar strengthened by 6% during the quarter. The combination of strong US economic growth, solid US asset returns, and the threat of tariffs have supported dollar strength in the later part of 2024 and the beginning of this year (Exhibit 3).

A stronger dollar weighs on the non-US sales of companies, acting as a headwind to overall sales and earnings estimates. Alongside recent US dollar strength, the share of S&P 500 companies mentioning FX has risen across 4Q earnings calls (Exhibit 4). Recent management commentary noted the negative impacts of the stronger US dollar on sales results (TEL, PCAR, AZO) and some companies expect FX headwinds to persist (AAPL, DECK, TDY). Our FX strategists forecast the trade-weighted dollar will appreciate by 3% over the next twelve months. We recently highlighted potential solutions for corporates to mitigate the headwinds from a stronger USD including FX hedging and reporting results in constant currency.

The last theme the analysts found that continued to dominate earnings calls was enthusiasm over AI:

Managements continued to express enthusiasm over AI on 4Q earnings calls, with some noting that AI has led to improvements in efficiency internally and for their customer base (C, T, SLB, UNH). The share of companies mentioning AI during this quarter’s earnings calls reached a new high at 50%. After last Monday’s news about DeepSeek, commentary from mega-cap tech companies (GOOGL, MSFT, META) highlighted the potential benefits of recent developments in AI.

The AI trade has continued to broaden, particularly to companies with the potential to monetize AI and boost their earnings from widespread AI adoption. Since the start of Q4 earnings season, our basket of Phase 2 AI infrastructure stocks (GSCBAIP2) have outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by 2 pp, whereas stocks with AI enabled revenues (GSCBAIP3) have outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by 6 pp. Phase 3 companies (e.g. ACN, ADBE, META) are starting to capitalize off their AI investments, deploying tools internally and into their products, allowing employees and customers to benefit.

To recap, the three big themes that the analyst found during this earnings season were tariffs, strong dollar, and AI.

We suspect these themes will dominate well into the second half of the year. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 10:45

Elizabeth Warren Destroyed By X Community Notes Over Pharma Corruption

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Elizabeth Warren Destroyed By X Community Notes Over Pharma Corruption

Authored by Ben Bartee via PJMedia.com,

If ever you needed proof that X Community Notes is vastly superior to corporate “fact checks” as a way for real journalists to do real work countering “misinformation” rather than as a bludgeon to suppress dissident narratives, this is it.

Lying about being a Native American for DEI leg-ups, it turns out, isn’t the only dishonesty Elizabeth Warren peddles.

This lie, however, is much more consequential in terms of policy impact: 

 “I don’t take contributions from Big Pharma executives. I don’t take any corporate PAC money,” Elizabeth Warren says in the Senate hallway when confronted over her smears of RFK Jr.

But the contradictory proof is all right there in the X Community Notes window, just under the lying pharma tool, with links and links and links, rendering my job as a journalist exposing her blatant lies far easier:

“Elizabeth Warren has in fact received donations from both Pharmaceutical companies and PAC organizations in the combined tune of millions of dollars.”

Warren, in fact, is the second-biggest beneficiary of cash from pharma employees and/or PACs in the entire Congress, next to Bernie Sanders.

Via TIME, 2020 (emphasis added):

In an ironic twist, that now makes Warren, who along with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has been the strongest opponent of super PACs in the 2020 campaign, the biggest beneficiary of such a group heading into Super Tuesday — the most prominent reversal yet among the candidates on the issue of high-dollar donations. At one point, nearly every candidate decried the practice, before realizing it may be a necessity for survival.

Under campaign finance laws, donors can give unlimited amounts to a super PAC as long as the groups do not directly coordinate with the candidates they are supporting. Since launching her campaign, Warren has prided herself on her refusal to accept money from political action committees or federal lobbyists, and she has promised to disavow any super PAC that formed on her behalf.

That pledge is still publicly available on her campaign website, but Warren has not distanced herself from Persist PAC. Instead, her rhetoric on the issue started to shift in the past month, as her once-promising campaign underperformed its expectations in the first three states to vote. “If all the candidates want to get rid of super PACs, count me in, I’ll lead the charge,” she told reporters on Feb. 20 in Nevada when asked if she would disavow Persist PAC. “But that’s how it has to be. It can’t be the case that a bunch of people keep them and only one or two don’t.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 10:25

Democrats Send UMich Inflation Expectations Exploding Higher In Feb

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Democrats Send UMich Inflation Expectations Exploding Higher In Feb

With Democrats driving inflation expectations (dramatically) higher in January, all eyes will be on this morning’s UMich preliminary data for February… and right they were as 1-year inflation expectations ramped up to 4.3% (from 3.3% vs 3.3% expected). Additionally, the medium-term inflation expectation jumped up to 3.3% – its highest since June 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, the surge in inflation expectations was due entirely to Democrats (we guess they’ve been reading Politico’s ‘tariff tax’ fearmongering too much?)…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, sentiment slumped in February, from 71.1 to 67.8, greatly disappointing the expectation of a rise to 71.8 with both current conditions and expectations sliding…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the slump in broad sentiment seems driven by partisan politics of course with Democrats’ now at their least confident since Aug 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 12% slide in buying conditions for durables, in part, according to Survey Director Joanne Hsu, due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy. 

Expectations for personal finances sank about 6% from last month, again seen across all political affiliations, reaching its lowest value since October 2023. 

Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.

Perhaps some Democrats should read what Goldman Sachs has said on the matter of FULL tariffs…

Goldman’s rule of thumb is that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate raises the core PCE price level by 0.1%, the bank now estimates that tariffs will provide a one-time boost to year-on-year core PCE inflation of 0.5% (vs. 0.3% previously), leaving it at 2.6% in December.

Interviews for this release concluded on February 4… so before Mexico and Canada had folded and Trump delayed tariffs.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2025 – 10:11