Goldilocks it wasn’t… as inflation macro data surprised to the upside and growth macro data to the downside (we love the smell of stagflation in the morning)…

Source: Bloomberg

… but that didn’t stop stocks soaring for the fifth straight week, with Small Caps exploding higher today (back into the green for the week)…

…as “most shorted” stocks saw a massive squeeze higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, a market wrap would not be complete without discussing the shitshow in Shanghai as Chinese stocks witnessed the greatest volatility since their meltdown in 2015, capping almost $500 billion of combined losses in mainland and Hong Kong markets, as investors demanded even more stimulus than authorities in Beijing have already pledged.

The CSI 300 Index’s weekly trading range – the gap between high and low prices – surged above 600 index points this week for the first time since July 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

Back then, Chinese markets witnessed an exodus of foreigners driven by mounting economic concerns and a government crackdown on traders which only exacerbated the panic.

Source: Bloomberg

This time, the turbulence is driven by sluggish consumer demand that threatens even the scaled-down growth ambitions of the country. The index’s 10-day and 20-day realized volatility also rose to a nine-year high.

Notably, the rise in macro surprise data has come as financial conditions have loosened to their ‘easiest’ since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw the 45th all-time-high of the year, but none of the prior 44 have occurred alongside this elevated a level of volatility; this will be the first week of the year where the VIX has closed above 20 every day, and so ongoing elevated risk is expected as we progress through October…

Source: Bloomberg

The vol term structure is notably upward-sloping into the election now (and the coincidental FOMC meeting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very mixed today and on the week the short-end dramatically outperforming (practically unch on the week as the long-end blew out)…

Source: Bloomberg

After a huge flattening last week, the yield curve steepened by the most since the start of August this week with 2s10s dropping to inversion to start the week and steepening to erase the post-payrolls plunge by the end…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations rose modestly this week (with all the focus on 2025 as 2024 remains priced for less than 2 full rate cuts now)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second straight week, testing up to August’s highs before stalling a little today…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, Gold extended yesterday’s rebound to end the week higher, finding support at $2600 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was flat today holding on to gains on the week (with WTI back above $75)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin exploded back higher today (from $59,000 to $63,000), to end the week solidly in the green (after testing near one-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the start of Bitcoin’s rip on the back of surging liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this weekend represents the two year anniversary from the bear market lows. The S&P is up 66% from the lows in October 2021, helped by and endless supply of liquidity from global central planners…]

Source: Bloomberg

BUT… the last week or two has seen liquidity start to contract a little (even as stocks soared to record-er highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the money-printers get back to work… or will stocks sink into the election (which Trump is now leading in all the prediction markets – but not the polls)?

Source: Bloomberg

There’s no bears left…

Source: Bloomberg

…well maybe some…

San Francisco is gearing up to shut down 9% of its public schools in a desperate move to fix a massive budget deficit. With student enrollment plummeting and pandemic relief funds drying up, the city is set to close or merge 11 out of its 121 schools, leaving the future of thousands of students and teachers hanging in the balance.

The proposal, which was announced late Tuesday, comes as the school district faces a whopping $113 million in cuts by 2026, or risk a dreaded state takeover. “Without a balanced budget and a plan to consolidate our resources, we risk a state takeover,” warned Superintendent Matt Wayne, adding that such a takeover would “further deplete resources directed to our schools, erode our collective decision-making power, and likely compound educational disparities for our most vulnerable students.”

The schools on the chopping block serve about 2,000 kids, while another two will merge with other locations, according to local reports. And it’s not just the school closures – San Francisco’s school district has already been slashing jobs and cutting back on school supplies. Things could get worse when the final list of schools is voted on next month by the school board, Bloomberg reports.

This is the latest blow to a city grappling with skyrocketing homelessness and a fentanyl crisis. San Francisco’s public school enrollment has plunged by over 4,000 students in the last seven years – costing the district $80 million. By 2032, they’re expecting to lose another 4,600 students thanks to falling birth rates and demographic shifts.

Feeding the ‘Doom Loop’

The planned school closures are more than just a budgetary issue – they are a reflection of the larger economic “doom loop” San Francisco finds itself trapped in. As described by the San Francisco Chronicle, the city’s economic ecosystem is spiraling as the decline of core public services like schools accelerates a broader exodus of residents and businesses.

Thanks to crime, filth, and the pandemic – downtown SF has seen a sharp reduction in foot traffic as remote work has left office buildings and businesses empty. This shift has eroded the city’s tax base, leading to budget shortfalls across vital services. Now, with the closure of schools, families may be even more likely to leave the city, taking their children and spending power with them.

The doom loop is driven by a vicious cycle: diminished public services push people and businesses away, shrinking the tax revenue the city relies on to fund those very services. The closure of schools, much like the rise in homelessness and the overdose epidemic, threatens to further compound the fact that San Francisco is a city in decline, locked in a downward spiral.

As San Francisco’s public institutions falter, the question looms – how much longer can the city sustain these losses before it hits a tipping point?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.

A set of New York Times/Siena College Senate Polls shows Republicans are ahead in three crucial Senate races they need to win to take control of the Senate.

• Florida: Scott 49%: Mucarsel-Powell 40%

• Montana: Sheehy 52%: Tester 44%

• Texas: Cruz 48%: Allred 44%

In addition, Cook Political (paywalled)

Cook Political

Bear in mind, Cook Political uses “Tossup” liberally. That emphasizes MT leans Republican.

On Wisconsin

On October 8, Cook Political commented Wisconsin Senate Shifts From Lean Democrat To Toss Up

With less than a month until Election Day, many of the Senate battlegrounds have begun to tighten. Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

Another poll from the respected Marquette Law School last week still showed Baldwin with a seven point edge, 53%-46%. However, private polling from both parties mirrors what our survey found — that this race is within the margin of error — and both Republicans and Democrats view other polls as outliers.

This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable. Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by one point. While Baldwin is still leading independents by eight points, 50%-42%, we have seen an 11-point swing among the bloc toward Hovde since August.

Hovde, a self-funding venture capitalist, was initially touted as ….

The rest is paywalled.

Blue Wall Cracks

On October 9, a Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI

Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling seven issues…

The economy:

• PA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
• WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Immigration:

• PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
• WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:

• PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
• MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.

Abortion:

• PA: 37 percent say Trump, while 55 percent say Harris;
• MI: 40 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
• WI: 39 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

The conflict in the Middle East:

• PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

As Commander in Chief of the U.S. military:

• PA: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:

• PA: 46 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Trump generally comes out on top except for abortion.

Michigan Senate

The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48 percent of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.

This compares to September when Slotkin received 51 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent support.

In today’s poll, Democrats 98 – 1 percent support Slotkin, while Republicans 92 – 5 percent support Rogers. Independents are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Slotkin and 48 percent supporting Rogers.

Electric Vehicles

That is another outstanding poll for Republicans. Don’t be surprised if this all hinges on EVs.

Likely voters 57 – 34 percent oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles.

Republicans (91 – 5 percent) and independents (58 – 32 percent) oppose government incentives, while Democrats (69 – 18 percent) support them.

The Trump campaign ought to be flooding the airwaves and TV ads in Michigan with the message on EVs.

Pollster Ratings

Republicans tend to knock New York Times polls, but NYT polls are really conducted by Siena College. And according to Nate Silver Siena is one of the top rated pollsters with almost no historical bias.

Quinnipiac University is also an unbiased pollster. This news is very favorable for Republicans.

Final Thoughts

I am a believer in momentum, and momentum has shifted, more so in Senate polls than in the national election. Regardless, Nate Silver lags. I will cover this separately.

Trump remains his own worst enemy. If Trump practiced the debate against Harris, he would not have dug himself into a huge hole. But here we are.

I would not go so far to say for certain that Trump is out of the hole, but at least he is near the edge. No one knows how this will turn out nationally because there is still time for either candidate to make a major error.

However, we can say it is now likely Republicans take the Senate.

After Wednesday’s phone call involving President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the US and Israel have moved closer on achieving consensus regarding Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran. 

There have been reports that Netanyahu is now seeking the approval of his security cabinet, however regional media says that no big resolutions have been reached. The expected big counterstrikes have yet to come, despite Iran firing some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1st.

But The Wall Street Journal has described Iran’s “secret warning” conveyed to other Middle East regional countries this week as it braces for Israel’s potential retaliation.

“Tehran is threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, said Arab officials,” writes WSJ.

Israel could potentially use Jordanian, UAE, or possibly Saudi airspace in such an attack, despite these countries on an official level rejecting such a possibility. We detailed this week that the gulf states are pushing hard for Israel to avoid hitting Iranian oil facilities, on fears that Tehran would in turn authorize its proxies to attack Saudi Aramco sites, like happened in 2019.

According to more from the WSJ:

The Arab officials said the countries that Iran has threatened include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host U.S. troops. These states have told the Biden administration that they don’t want their military infrastructure or airspace to be used by the U.S. or Israel for any offensive operations against Iran, the officials said.

As for America’s gulf allies’ pleading for Israel and the US to not use their airspace for counter-Iran operations, the WSJ has noted further, “The Arab countries’ requests remain informal, a U.S. defense official said.”

A key complication, and one which puts the Saudis in a precarious and delicate position vis-a-vis their allies, is that the United States has bases and a troop presence in the kingdom, including significant US Air Force assets.

Washington has already pledged to help the Israelis repel any future Iranian ballistic missile counterattacks, as it did in the last two rounds of drones and ballistic missiles fired on Israel.

🛢 Bullish #Oil Bets Rose Most in Y.ears After Iran Attack Last Week – Bloomberg
*Net-long positions held by hedge funds, exchange-traded funds and other speculators jumped by the equivalent of 139 million barrels last week, according to a weekly commitments of traders report… pic.twitter.com/CzSuvh1BdA

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2024

A broader Iran-Israel war would certainly see the US pressure the Saudis and GCC to allow American fighter jets based out of the Gulf to engage Iran.

Meanwhile Saudis appear to be taking steps to appease Iran: “As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles said,” Reuters detailed this week.

Prominent black Trump booster Rob Smith has responded to the former president’s condescending screed over ‘brothas’ who are afraid to vote for Kamala Harris. In a now-viral reply, Smith tells Obama: “There is no amount of lecturing or bullying or shaming that you can do that is going to make me change that decision [to vote for Trump].

Watch:

Sorry Obama!

I’m a BLACK MAN

I am voting for DONALD TRUMP on November 5th!

And NO amount of LECTURING or SHAMING is going to change that.

DEAL WITH IT. pic.twitter.com/Y8Z8YStuQu

— Rob Smith (@robsmithonline) October 11, 2024

More:

.@BarackObama should be ashamed for berating, rebuking and scolding Black men, because they won’t vote for Madam Lock Up A Brother…@KamalaHarris. As if we are too stupid to vote our interest and what best for ourselves and our families.

BO, you owe every Black man in America… pic.twitter.com/2WXvqpPcTp

— Vernon Jones (@VernonForGA) October 11, 2024

My name is CJ Pearson. I’m 22 years old. And in 25 days, I’ll be joining millions of other young black men and voting for Donald J. Trump!

And we don’t give a damn about what Barack Obama has to say about it. pic.twitter.com/tKzupKL0N1

— CJ Pearson (@thecjpearson) October 11, 2024

Even CNN slammed Obama!

NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings rips Democrats for being surprised that men don’t want to vote for Harris, calls out Obama for insulting black men.

“This is a political party that thinks gender is just a state of mind, and all of a sudden they’re like, ‘we have trouble with moderate… pic.twitter.com/OCONIkDAHg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 11, 2024

Meanwhile, are you man enough to vote for Kamala?

I present to you the cringiest political ad ever created. pic.twitter.com/P0JMI1caNS

— Champagne Joshi (@JoshWalkos) October 11, 2024

*  *  *

Former President Barack Obama hit the campaign trail for Kamala Harris on Thursday — and hit some flat notes, as he condescendingly scolded black men for their lackluster support of the vice president, even going so far as to accuse them of sexism.  

While Harris seems certain to win the overall black vote, she’s on course to do so by a significantly slimmer margin than recent party standard-bearers. In 2008, 95% of blacks voted for Obama. This year, only 63% of blacks say they’ll vote for Harris, according to a recent NAACP survey. What’s particularly alarming to Democrats is that, among black men under 50, only 49% support Harris, with 26% saying they’ll vote for Trump.   

“We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” said Obama at an unannounced, pre-rally stop at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh. “I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothas.”

Appealing to race, Obama then told the mostly-black group at the campaign office that the choice in 2024 was clear, given that, “on the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences…”

The DNC has sent out Barack Obama to scold Black men and try to shame us into supporting his fellow NON- Foundational Black American candidate Kamala Harris

🤦🏾‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/hq2wvAB7Jv

— Tariq Nasheed 🇺🇸 (@tariqnasheed) October 11, 2024

Having exhorted black men to embrace racism in the voting booth, Obama then suggested the same group’s sexism was at the heart of Harris’ problem with them: 

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that. Because part of it makes me think— and I’m speaking to men directly— part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

“…And now, you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.“

Obama’s remarks seem to reflect a growing sense of desperation — and they seem likely to backfire. It’s bad enough for him to publicly spotlight Harris’ weakness compared to his own performance, but it’s even worse that he felt the best way to remedy the situation was to publicly shame black men — to the point of saying, “you’re lucky Michelle’s not here” — and to accuse black men of sexism. 

I’m tired of Barack Obama lecturing Black men.

— Madison Payton (@MadisonPayton2) October 11, 2024

Reggie Jones, a black “brotha” selling Harris products at the Pittsburgh rally, attributed weak black support for Harris to her record in California. “[It’s] because she locked a whole lot of us up as a prosecutor,” Jones told the New York Post before adding, “I’m just selling her stuff for the money.” 

Meanwhile, the black vote is just one of several crumbling cornerstones of the Democratic electoral coalition. Democratic campaign operatives are sweating bullets as they also see Harris underperforming with Hispanics, Muslims, young people and labor union members.

All aboard the shame train!

Kamala went on “Call Her Daddy” because she’s losing young voters.

She’s got Obama on the campaign trail now lecturing Black men because she’s losing Black voters.

And now, here she is on Univision with a Hispanic accent because she’s losing Latinos.pic.twitter.com/O4KCl4PhCF

— Javon A. Price 🇺🇸 (@JavonAPrice) October 11, 2024

Obama out here telling Black men what they “should” do. He never had a real “Black” experience. He knows nothing about “that life”. He was raised by his White Mother and Grandmother in Hawaii, and attended Harvard. He needs to stop cappin…

— Dr.Darrell Scott (@PastorDScott) October 11, 2024

BREAKING NEWS: @BarackObama sent out by White liberals to “Blackman-splain” to get Black men to vote for @KamalaHarris. Wait, his mother and Kamala’s mother are both “WHITE.”

Obama doesn’t even have Black neighbors, and 99% of his handlers are White.

I don’t have anything in… pic.twitter.com/0cb5WEr0hs

— Vernon Jones (@VernonForGA) October 11, 2024

During Obama’s years in office, there were multiple mass shootings and viral police killings. Not once did Obama lecture police officers or white males. His hallmark is using his identity to denigrate Black men publicly because everyone loves it.

— Charles Preston (@_CharlesPreston) October 11, 2024

Obama views Black ADOS men with the same lens as a casual white man.

He doesn’t really know us.

His energy is white basketball coach at an inner-city Black high school. It’s all thinly veiled derisive contempt, with a dose of disdain, a heap of condescension. #YC4PRES #ADOS https://t.co/XxhzIHIDEO

— Soul American (@SoulAmerican2) October 11, 2024

[ ADOS = American Descendants of Slavery ]  

Read the room. Being patronizing to Black men is what got yall into this mess in the first place. Obama knows better than this. That approach is…not going to work. Do better https://t.co/pPIcU1I5u6

— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) October 10, 2024

NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings rips Democrats for being surprised that men don’t want to vote for Harris, calls out Obama for insulting black men.

“This is a political party that thinks gender is just a state of mind, and all of a sudden they’re like, ‘we have trouble with moderate… pic.twitter.com/OCONIkDAHg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 11, 2024

Labor strikes at Boeing’s commercial jet factories are approaching the one-month mark, with no end to the paralyzing labor action. This seriously threatens Boeing’s credit rating, which faces mounting downgrade risks from investment grade to junk status from multiple credit ratings agencies as cash reserves dwindle.

Quartz News reported overnight that Boeing filed unfair labor practice charges with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) against the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, claiming union bosses have been bargaining in bad faith on behalf of the 33,000 striking union members. 

Boeing wrote in a statement that IAM negotiators “did not seriously consider” the latest offer earlier this week, which included a 30% wage bump over four years, up from 25%, and other benefits.

“The union’s public narrative is misleading and making it difficult to find a solution for our employees,” Boeing said in the filing to the NLRB, adding the union had engaged in a “pattern of bad faith bargaining.” The aerospace giant retracted its “best and final” offer on Tuesday. 

Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Stephanie Pope wrote in a memo earlier this week, “Unfortunately, the union didn’t seriously consider our proposals. Instead, the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business.”

IAM leaders said the talks collapsed when Boeing negotiators refused to increase wages over the contract’s lifespan or reinstate the defined benefit pension. 

As the strike eclipses one month in just a few short days, troubles keep piling up for Boeing. S&P Global Ratings placed the struggling planemaker on CreditWatch negative, citing mounting risks that its investment-grade credit rating would be slashed to junk.

“The CreditWatch listing reflects the increased likelihood of a downgrade if the strike persists toward the end of the year, further constraining the recovery in the company’s cash flow generation and the company does not raise capital sufficient to meet its upcoming needs in such a way that does not increase financial leverage,” S&P said. 

S&P estimated the labor action costs Boeing $1 billion per month. They expect the target of producing 38 Max jets per month will be pushed to mid-2025. 

There’s also concern the planemaker will need to raise money via public equity markets (read more about dilution fears) with its cash balance dwindling: 

Boeing will likely seek incremental funding. We anticipate that Boeing will end 2024 with a cash balance below its $10 billion target if the strike continues through the fourth quarter and the company typically uses cash in the first quarter due to seasonal working capital build. Boeing also has approximately $4 billion of debt maturities due in April 2025. We believe the company will need to seek external capital to meet these demands. Based on its public comments, we assume Boeing is also open to potentially issuing additional equity. However, we believe the company remains exposed to higher-than-expected cash usage and adjusted debt for the next year or two, which could further delay the expected recovery in its credit measure to levels we view as consistent with the rating.

S&P concluded:

The CreditWatch with negative implications placement reflects our view that we could lower our ratings on Boeing if the strike continues, increasing costs and delaying the company’s recovery in aircraft production and cash flow generation. We could lower ratings if the company fails to preserve its target cash balance, fund operating and working capital, and meet debt maturities without increasing leverage. We intend to resolve the CreditWatch placement by the end of the year.

Some Wall Street desks following this story are left pondering this question: Which will happen first—Boeing’s credit downgrade from investment grade to junk or a deal with the IAM?

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Oklahoma-based BrucePac is pulling millions of pounds of meat items from across the United States due to concerns they may be adulterated with listeria monocytogenes bacteria, according to the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS).

Roughly 9,986,245 pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry are being recalled, according to an Oct. 9 FSIS announcement.

“Consumption of food contaminated with L. monocytogenes can cause listeriosis, a serious infection that primarily affects older adults, persons with weakened immune systems, and pregnant women and their newborns. Less commonly, persons outside these risk groups are affected,” the announcement reads.

“Listeriosis can cause fever, muscle aches, headache, stiff neck, confusion, loss of balance and convulsions sometimes preceded by diarrhea or other gastrointestinal symptoms.”

BrucePac has two manufacturing plants and supplies its products nationwide.

The products were manufactured between June 19, 2024, and Oct. 8, 2024. They were shipped to distributors and other establishments, eventually being sold to restaurants and intuitions. The recalled items come with establishment numbers “51205 or P-51205” printed inside or below the USDA mark of inspection.

No confirmed reports of adverse reactions have been reported so far, the announcement said, while advising people who are concerned about getting ill to contact a health care provider.

The contamination risk was discovered after FSIS conducted routine testing of BrucePac products and found that these items tested positive for listeria monocytogenes.

“FSIS is concerned that some product[s] may be available for use in restaurants, institutions, and other establishments. These other establishments may have used affected meat and poultry in [ready-to-eat] products that may be on store shelves or in consumers’ refrigerators or freezers,” the agency said.

“Restaurants, institutions, and other establishments are urged not to serve or use these products. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.”

Multiple firms have pulled out their products from the market due to listeria fears in recent months.

In July, Virginia-based Boar’s Head Provisions recalled all their liverwurst and other deli meat products, amounting to more than 200,000 pounds. The firm later expanded the recall to an additional 7 million pounds of products.

The same month, Al-Safa US LLC pulled out more than 2,000 pounds of imported frozen ready-to-eat chicken products over listeria contamination concerns.

Listeria Dangers

Listeria is the third leading cause of death in the United States from foodborne illnesses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The agency estimates that around 1,600 Americans get infected by listeria annually, with 260 people dying from the disease.

Over half of all infections occur among people aged 65 years and older. “As you get older, your immune system has a harder time recognizing and getting rid of harmful germs, including Listeria. You also have less stomach acid, which can help kill germs,” the CDC states.

“Older adults with Listeria infection almost always have to be hospitalized. Sadly, 1 in 6 older adults with this infection die.”

Among pregnant women, one in 25,000 get infected with the pathogen every year, according to the CDC. Even if the mother does not feel sick from the infection, listeria can spread to the baby and cause harm. One in four pregnant women who get infected either lose their pregnancy or their baby shortly after birth.

As for people with weakened immune systems, these individuals make up 75 percent of all infections, which “almost always leads to hospitalization,” according to the CDC. One in six individuals in this demographic dies from the illness.

Last year, the CDC reported two listeria outbreaks. So far this year, five outbreaks have been reported, with various food products being responsible for these events, including enoki mushrooms, leafy greens, and ice creams.

The agency advises people to choose safer foods to prevent listeria infection. This includes avoiding consuming foods like unpasteurized soft cheeses, unheated deli meats, cold cuts, hot dogs, fermented or dry sausages, and refrigerated smoked fish.

Sticking to safer foods “is especially important if you or someone you cook for is at increased risk for Listeria infection,” the CDC said.

McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski spoke at the Boston College Chief Executives Club event on Thursday, sounding the alarm that low-income customers will remain under strain through the end of the year and into early 2025. 

“We’re starting to talk about 2025, and my message to our teams has been: ‘We need to be preparing for another challenging year,'” Kempczinski told the audience, adding, “We need to be making sure that we’ve got a really strong value proposition in all of our markets.”

In June, MCD rolled out the $5 meal deal in response to low/mid-tier customers struggling under the failed Bidenomics era (elevated inflation and high interest rates). This deal, which allows customers to pick the following items: a McDouble or McChicken sandwich or 4-piece Chicken McNuggets, a small fry, and a small soft drink, has been well received by customers and was recently just extended through the end of the year.

Kempczinski commented on the limited-time $5 meal deal, noting that MCD will likely revamp its value offerings. 

This comes as MCD reported in July its first quarterly same-store sales drop in nearly four years amid a slowdown in customer spending.

The latest consumer data we’ve shared with readers shows that working-poor households are cracking.

Consumers Crack: Credit Card Debt Suddenly Plunges Most Since Covid As APRs Hit Record High https://t.co/ojSaHAYLXb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 7, 2024

As we’ve previously noted, values wars among fast-food chains are heating up:  

• McDonald’s Admits Consumers Are Broke With Planned Reintroduction Of $5 Meal Deal
• First McDonald’s, Now Burger King Admits Consumers Are Broke With Planned Reintroduction Of $5 Meal Deal
• KFC Unveils’ Finger-Lickin Good’ Meal Deal As Value Wars Heat Up
• McDonald’s Meal Deal Extends Into December As Core Customers Under Pressure

MCD CEO also said, “It’s easier to deliver value on chicken products than it is on beef products.” 

And we wonder why? …

One of the big themes this year has been low/mid-tier households faltering under the weight of elevated inflation and high interest rates. 

The latest consumer note from Goldman reveals a new survey of 2,000 consumers. It shows many consumers have been pushed into value-seeking mode because of the mounting macroeconomic headwinds.

All in all, remember that VP Harris pushed disastrous Bidenomics to the extreme. 

R group Restoration PAC is up on TV in battleground states and nationally with this spot targeted at Black voters —

Clip of woman in Philadelphia:

“They are killing us without killing us”

Clip of Kamala Harris:

“That is called Bidenomics” pic.twitter.com/5pndQdgAP5

— Medium Buying (@MediumBuying) October 6, 2024

You hear that consumers… Harris wouldn’t have changed a damn thing. 

If you think four more years of Harris won’t mean the same high gas prices, inflation, open borders, and crime, I’ve got oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you!

Kamala Harris admitted she wouldn’t change a thing from Biden’s disastrous policies. pic.twitter.com/8cIKigt0lQ

— Randy Weber (@TXRandy14) October 8, 2024

Economic conditions for the working poor will only get more challenging through the end of the year. MCD reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29. The lingering problem for consumers is an energy price shock at the pump could materialize if Israel begins bombing Iran’s crude oil export facilities. Consumers need to buckle up. 

Via Common Dreams

With the high-stakes U.S. presidential election less than a month away, warnings about the possible political consequences of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ refusal to break with President Joe Biden on supporting Israel’s assault on Gaza and beyond are taking on fresh urgency amid new survey data showing the vice president narrowly trailing GOP nominee Donald Trump in Michigan—a critical battleground state.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Harris is trailing Trump by three percentage points in Michigan—a reversal of the university’s survey last month, which showed the vice president with a slight lead over her Republican opponent. The new survey showed Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Trump leading in Wisconsin.

While Trump’s polling lead in Michigan was within the margin of error, the results amplified preexisting concerns about Harris’ chances in the state, which has a large Arab and Muslim population—many of whom have lost family members in Israel’s yearlong assault on the Gaza Strip, a relentless military campaign that has intensified in recent days as the prospects of a cease-fire agreement appear nonexistent.

The Quinnipiac poll found that by a margin of 53% to 43%, Michigan respondents said they think Trump—who has expressed support for Israel’s devastating bombardment of Gaza—would do a better job “handling the conflict in the Middle East” than Harris.

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, told Rolling Stone earlier this week that he has expressed to the Harris team that “if you want people to vote for you, you gotta give them a reason.”

“They don’t seem to care enough about the Arab American vote to do something to get it,” said Zogby.

Last month, Zogby’s organization released a poll of its own showing that support for Harris would climb nationally if she endorsed an arms embargo against Israel—something she has openly opposed despite pressure from advocacy groups who say it’s essential to end Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s obstruction of cease-fire talks.

Zogby noted in his interview with Rolling Stone that Michigan’s Lebanese American population is the largest in the United States—potentially compounding Harris’ political vulnerability in the state as Israel ramps up its assault on Lebanon with the support of the Biden administration.

“Many of the constituents are Lebanese who have deep attachments to Palestinians,” said Zogby, arguing that Israel’s escalation in Lebanon “will either put an exclamation point on the outrage or depression—causing them either not to vote or to flip and vote elsewhere.”

“The reaction I’m getting, when I go around the country and talk to people, is they want to punish Democrats,” Zogby added. “That’s not a smart political move, but that’s what people are feeling. And I don’t have an argument to make because [members of the Harris campaign] haven’t given us arguments to make.”

Harris has repeatedly acknowledged, including during her speech at the Democratic National Convention in August, the “immense suffering of innocent Palestinians in Gaza who have experienced so much pain and loss over the year.”

But Harris has rebuffed calls to create distance between herself and the Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel’s assault on Gaza and Lebanon. “No,” the vice president responded when asked during a recent televised interview whether she would support withholding U.S. arms shipments to Israel, whose forces have used American weaponry to commit war crimes in Gaza and Lebanon.

Harris has also declined to meet with Americans with family members in Lebanon and Gaza, according to the co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement.

Speaking to Mother Jones earlier this week, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud—who is Lebanese American—said Trump “is a threat” to Arab Americans and hardly an advocate of peaceful resolution in the Middle East. But Hammoud said the Harris campaign is not helping its case with voters when it fails to support an arms embargo against Israel, a position that—according to one recent poll—is backed by a majority of the American electorate.

Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016 by approx 10,000 votes. There are over 200,000 Arab Americans in Michigan.

Harris’s decision to treat them with complete contempt is a massive, suicidal electoral error.

— Nathan J Robinson (@NathanJRobinson) October 10, 2024

“What I keep pushing back on is it’s not this community that has to move in its values and principles and any issues that it’s taken a stance on. It’s the candidates who have to move,” said Hammoud. “And don’t move because of Dearborn, by all means. I’m not telling you to move because this small city in the Midwest is telling you to move on these issues. Move because the general American populace has said these issues matter to them.”

“And this idea that people will forget?” he continued. “Remember we heard this nine months ago: ‘People will forget come November.’ People are not forgetting… Genocide is not something you can cast aside.”

On Thursday, Emerson College released survey data it collected with The Hill showing that Trump and Harris are in a dead heat in Michigan—further indicating that a small swing in favor of either candidate could tip the scales and potentially decide who takes the White House.

Moira Donegan, a columnist for The Guardian, argued Wednesday that “Harris should give a speech in Michigan where she breaks with the Biden administration on Israel.”

“This is very obviously in her self-interest to do,” Donegan wrote on social media, adding that she doubts the vice president will take her advice. If she did, wrote IfNotNow co-founder Yonah Lieberman, it “would be a seminal political moment that would win Michigan, stop a second Trump administration, and help end a genocide.”

Via Issues & Insights Editorial Board,

If conservatives want to win elections, they don’t need to rile up the base, they need to convince independents to say in public what they believe in private – that they agree with conservatives on most issues and that Democrats are the wildly out-of-touch extremists.

That, at least, is one way to read a fascinating new survey from Populace, a non-partisan think tank in Massachusetts, which figured out a way to discern what 20,000 Americans think privately and compare that to what they are willing to say publicly.

It turns out that there are often wide gaps between the two, which Populace calls the “Social Pressure Index.” People tend to avoid stating their views if they think they’re in the minority.

But here’s the really interesting finding: On a host of bellwether issues, independents are, in private, far more conservative than they will admit to pollsters.

The survey asked questions about democracy, individual rights, the economy, culture, racism, etc.

Take the question of whether the government has “too much control in America.” Fully 71% of independents believe this privately. That is almost identical to the 78% of Republicans who believe it.  In contrast, a mere 17% of Democrats think government has too much control.

When asked if “society is better off when individuals make decisions for themselves rather than having experts make decisions for everyone,” 86% of independents believe this privately, which is close to the 90% of Republicans. Among Democrats, just 63% believe it.

On the economy, independents are deeply depressed. Just 11% think it is doing well, and a mere 4% believe they are better off than they were five years ago. Those numbers are much closer to Republicans (5% and 2%, respectively). Democrats are the extreme outliers (64% think the economy is doing well and 47% think they’re better off).

Independents are also far less favorably inclined toward unions. Fewer than a third believe that “stronger labor unions are good for the economy.” That’s close to the 29% of Republicans. Again, Democrats – 70% said they believe this – are the extremists.

The chart above shows their hidden views on other issues and how they are actually much closer to conservative Republicans than leftist Democrats.

But this isn’t what independents tell pollsters. On almost all these issues, they publicly claim to be more liberal than they really are.

For example, while 86% of independents think privately that society is better off when individuals make decisions for themselves rather than experts doing it for everyone, only 69% are willing to admit that publicly.

While only 3% of independents privately believe that the government should censor offensive content, 20% say they do. Fifty-two percent think public schools focus too much on racism, but only 41% will admit to that view. Six in 10 think the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine, but only 44% will say that publicly.

Why do you suppose that is? The pollsters don’t speculate, but we can. We’d say it’s because the left has so thoroughly infiltrated the media, the entertainment business, education, and every other major institution that they’ve browbeaten independents into denying or hiding their actual views.

The result is that opinion polls skew left, which then only reinforces independents’ desire to stay silent. In reality, it’s leftist Democrats who should be running scared.

— Written by the I&I Editorial Board

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