Via Remix News,

During their state party conference this past weekend, the Berlin Greens finalized an election manifesto that places radical migration reform at the center of their platform. The party is advocating for the broad admission of individuals displaced by environmental factors like climate change, alongside expanded humanitarian programs for specific conflict zones.

The centerpiece of the Green manifesto is a commitment to provide refuge for those fleeing environmental degradation. Following the vote, the regional association signaled its intent to make Berlin a primary destination for these individuals. Notably, the city has a long-term housing crisis, with the government spending now €1 billion a year on housing for migrants, a cost that has tripled in just four years. In addition, all current asylum accommodations are already full.

WATCH: 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Mass immigration is fueling the West’s housing crisis.

Here’s how it’s happening in Germany.

In a powerful speech in the German Bundestag, @AfD politician Carolin Bachmann slams the ruling government for allowing 2 million migrants into the country while families… pic.twitter.com/DMEqiV316S

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 15, 2024

“This will be our government policy,” announced Philmon Ghirmai, the Greens’ state chairperson. “We also want to reintroduce the admission of people affected by climate disasters.”

To define the scope of this move, the party points to United Nations data suggesting that 86 million people globally reside in hotspots of the climate crisis. For context, Berlin currently hosts 37,592 registered refugees, a figure that has already stretched the city’s accommodation and financial resources.

However, there is broad latitude to expand this 86 million much higher, especially if the worst predictions about climate change come true. Notably, China, which has far higher CO2 emissions than Germany, still refuses to take virtually any migrants, whether legal, illegal, or refugees. At the same time, China is pulling vastly ahead of European nations in terms of renewable energy technology, meaning China may have not only a more cohesive society in the end, but also produce more of the green technology that could potentially solve issues associated with climate change.

Beyond climate-related migration, the Greens are pushing for localized reception initiatives. The party aims to mirror previous efforts by establishing dedicated pathways for residents of the Gaza Strip and Afghanistan. Notably, Afghans have some of the worst integration rates in Germany.

The decision states: “We advocate the resumption of the country reception program for Afghanistan and want to extend the model to Gaza.”

Approximately 30,000 Palestinians already live in Berlin.

The Greens also want to block deportation, with the manifesto stating that 20,000 individuals currently slated for deportation in Berlin should be allowed to stay in Germany. They continue to reject deportations to Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan.

The party wants to end mass accommodation facilities in Berlin, which account for the majority of where refugees are located. Instead, they intend to implement a “social housing program for refugees” that would see migrants housed in apartments distributed across all city districts.

Berlin and cities across Germany are increasingly approaching a state of bankruptcy, in large part due to record spending on migrants.

For the first time last year, the city of Berlin’s Senate has received a detailed breakdown of all asylum costs in the city, revealing the high costs of foreigners for Germany’s capital city.

Last year, the city spent at least €2.1 billion on migrants, which equals 5 percent of the entire budget, reads a report prepared by the Senate Administration for the Main Committee of the House of Representatives.

Berlin’s crime is also disproportionately committed by foreigners. Data from last year showed that foreigners are responsible for 43.9 percent of all crimes in Berlin in 2024. Murders and manslaughter also jumped over 50 percent compared to 2023.

New data shows that foreigners are responsible for 43.9% of all crimes in Berlin in 2024.

Murders and manslaughter also jumped over 50% compared to 2023!

“What should not be ignored is that 30% of foreign suspects are not registered in Berlin,” said a police union rep. pic.twitter.com/5r3nwUEzMz

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 20, 2025

With the election for the Berlin House of Representatives scheduled for Sept. 20, the Greens are currently polling at 16 percent, trailing the CDU, the Left, and the AfD. However, a red-red-green coalition remains a mathematical possibility, which would give these manifesto points a potential path to becoming official policy.

Read more here…

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese journalist whose work exposed human rights abuses committed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been detained in Beijing for more than 100 days.

Du Bin, 54, was formally arrested in November last year, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity out of fear of reprisal. His case has been transferred to the procuratorate for examination and prosecution as of late January, the sources told The Epoch Times.

Du has been held at Shunyi Detention Center in Beijing since October, when he was taken by police from his residence, according to his sister and rights groups.

Authorities told his sister at the time that Du was detained under suspension for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” The vaguely worded charge is often used by the regime to target dissidents and human rights advocates.

Authorities are now pursuing a new charge that may “involve state leaders” after failing to find sufficient evidence to support the initial charge, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details about Du’s case, including what led to his arrest, remain unclear, with authorities citing “state secrecy” as the reason for refusing to provide information to his lawyer.

As a photographer and writer focused on uncovering the history that Beijing seeks to conceal, Du has been targeted by authorities for more than a decade, but this was the first time he had been formally arrested.

Du was taken into custody for 37 days in 2013. His friends told Amnesty International at the time that Du’s detention might have been linked to a documentary exposing the abuses women faced at Masanjia Labor Camp.

Located in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the detention facility is notorious for its horrific treatment of female detainees, especially those who refuse to renounce their faith in Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa.

The spiritual discipline—featuring meditative exercises and moral teachings centered on truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance—has faced brutal persecution since 1999, when the CCP deemed the practice’s surging popularity a threat to its authority. Torture and abuse are part of the ongoing campaign to wipe out Falun Gong, which had attracted an estimated 70 million to 100 million practitioners in China by the late 1990s.

In two books released in Hong Kong in 2014, Du detailed former inmates’ accounts of torture by Masanjia guards, including shocking female Falun Gong practitioners’ genitalia with electric batons and stripping practitioners naked and locking them up in the cells of male prisoners.

Months after his release in 2013, Du was asked in an interview why he chose to write about Falun Gong, one that he himself acknowledged as the most sensitive topic in China.

“We are all human,” he told The Epoch Times in December 2014. “Using such inhuman methods against others is something I can never accept.”

In December 2020, days before his historical book “Red Terror: Lenin’s Communist Experiment” was set to be published in Taiwan, Du was arrested by Beijing police, again for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” He was released after 37 days in detention.

‘Growing Intolerance’

Independent journalists and writers such as Du have endured mounting pressure in recent years as the CCP deepens its grip on society.

In 2025, Beijing once again led the world in the number of reporters imprisoned, the Committee to Protect Journalists stated in its latest annual report, released last month. It marked the third consecutive year that the regime was given the title of “the world’s worst jailer of journalists.”

On Feb. 9, a Hong Kong court handed down a 20-year prison term to Jimmy Lai, founder of a now-shuttered newspaper known for its critical coverage of the CCP, under a Beijing-imposed “national security” law. The court also gave heavy sentences to six former Apple Daily employees on national security charges.

In mainland China, authorities in Sichuan Province recently detained two investigative journalists who wrote about corruption by local Party officials, according to Reporters Without Borders.

International human rights groups have denounced the harassment campaign against Du and called for his immediate release.

“The international community must step up pressure on Beijing to secure Du’s release, along with that of all other journalists and press freedom defenders detained in China,” Antoine Bernard, director for advocacy and assistance at Reporters Without Borders, said in a December 2025 statement.

Human Rights Watch, in a statement following Du’s arrest, said the charge against Du highlighted “the growing intolerance for dissent” under Xi Jinping, the Party’s top leader.

Du is also a photographer who once contributed to international media outlets, including The New York Times. But he was forced to stop after authorities denied him a work permit over his books.

His work includes “Tiananmen Massacre,” which compiles firsthand accounts of the night of June 3–4, 1989, when CCP leaders deployed troops and tanks to suppress unarmed pro-democracy students calling for political reform. That event remains one of the most heavily censored topics in China today.

In an interview with The Epoch Times after his second release, Du appeared calm and undeterred.

“I’m not pessimistic, nor am I afraid,” he said in January 2021, “because my work is based on actual events—all I’ve done is document them.”

Xin Ling and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report. 

The Department of Transportation shut down a major safety vulnerability this past week that had allowed illegal immigrant drivers to operate commercial trucks on American highways despite having no verifiable driving history.

“For far too long, America has allowed dangerous foreign drivers to abuse our truck licensing systems – wreaking havoc on our roadways. This safety loophole ends today,” Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said in a statement.

“Moving forward, unqualified foreign drivers will be unable to get a license to operate an 80,000-pound big rig. Under President Trump’s leadership, we are putting the safety of the driving public first. From enforcing English language standards to holding fraudulent carriers accountable, we will continue to attack this crisis on our roads head on.”

The reform targets a gaping hole in how states issue commercial driver’s licenses to foreign nationals. While licensing agencies can screen U.S. drivers through national databases for past violations like DUIs or crash history, they cannot access records of foreigners and illegal immigrants. That loophole enabled at least 30 states to issue CDLs to drivers deemed ineligible.

Under the old system, foreign drivers holding only work permits could obtain commercial trucking licenses because Employment Authorization Documents don’t indicate prior traffic violations, accidents, or license suspensions in other countries. States had no way to know whether an applicant had a clean record or a history of reckless driving before allowing them to operate an 80,000-pound vehicle.

The new rule formally codifies Duffy’s emergency action from last September that ended the issuance of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses to truckers with unverified driving histories. EADs will no longer be accepted as proof of eligibility. Applicants must instead present an unexpired foreign passport along with the appropriate Form I-94, which tracks a noncitizen’s entry to and exit from the United States.

“Under the provisions, only foreign nationals holding temporary work visas, such as H‑2B, H‑1B, or temporary investor visas from treaty countries, known as E‑2 visas, may be eligible,” explains Fox News Digital. “In addition, states must verify the lawful immigration status of every applicant by checking the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.”

At least 30 people died in 17 crashes caused by non-domiciled commercial driver’s license holders in 2025, according to reports. Among the most serious incidents, a non-domiciled driver triggered a multi-vehicle crash inside a tunnel on Interstate 80 in Wyoming on February 14, killing three people and injuring 20 others.

On August 12, another non-domiciled driver caused a crash on the Florida Turnpike that left three people dead after attempting an illegal U-turn. In California, a driver failed to stop for traffic on October 21, setting off an eight-vehicle collision that killed three. Later in the year, on December 3, a non-domiciled driver collided with a train at a marked crossing in Ontario, California, killing a crew member.

“We are done letting foreign drivers wreak havoc on our roads. If you’re behind the wheel of a big rig, you must meet our standards—no exceptions,” Duffy said in a post on X Saturday.

The final rule is expected to take effect in one month, around March 15. 

“A critical safety gap allowed unqualified drivers with unknown driving histories to get behind the wheel of commercial vehicles,” said Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) Administrator Derek D. Barrs. “We are closing that gap today to ensure that only qualified, vetted drivers are operating on our nation’s roadways. If we cannot verify your safe driving history, you cannot hold a CDL in this country.”

Duffy praised the reform as one of several steps the Trump administration is taking to bolster transportation safety, including enforcing English language standards for drivers.

In May, Secretary Duffy signed an order establishing new guidelines to strengthen English language enforcement for commercial truck operators, placing drivers who fail English proficiency tests out of service.

“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are putting the safety of the driving public first,” Duffy said. “From enforcing English language standards to holding fraudulent carriers accountable, we will continue to attack this crisis on our roads head on.”

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A Nevada lawsuit trickling toward trial could determine how the nation’s most arid state balances the legal rights of upstream landowners to divert water from rivers for agricultural irrigation with the impacts those withdrawals have on downstream ecologies and economies.

Water rights exceed water supply across much of the western United States. With many watersheds failing to deliver enough water for local needs, the suit is being watched by attorneys, state water managers, and federal agencies. It could potentially set a precedent in revising how states across the West regulate access to water.

The Nevada case, filed by the Walker River Paiute Tribe and Mineral County, may also present an opportunity for a win-win solution, in which nonprofits and government entities purchase private water rights from willing upstream sellers and dedicate them to downstream public benefit.

Without public-private intervention and the changes in state water law that the suit seeks, geologists and environmental experts agree the future is bleak for Walker Lake, a 13-mile long terminal lake about 75 miles southeast of Reno near the California state line in rural, sparsely populated Mineral County.

The lake is completely dependent on diminishing Sierra Nevada snowmelt runoff into the Walker River—runoff that, for decades now, has been almost entirely diverted for irrigation by upstream farmers and ranchers.

As a result, a desert oasis that once generated more than half of Mineral County’s economic activity through recreational pursuits such as fishing, migratory bird-watching, boating, and camping is now a lifeless “sludge pond,” while the town of Walker Lake faces an accelerating prospect of extinction.

“The last fish was caught in 2013 or 2015, I believe. When the fish died, the fishing died; boating, recreation, that all just disappeared,” Mineral County Commissioner Tony Ruse said.

“There were restaurants here. There were hotels here. There were businesses here. Now? All gone, just 300 residents struggling.”

A Mineral County native, Ruse returned in 2020 after working 34 years as a Switzerland-trained chef in Europe and Asia, including 20 years in South Korea, to open The Big Horn Crossing, a restaurant and convenience store in a shuttered bait shop. It’s now Walker Lake’s only remaining retail business.

“It was dead. There was nothing,” he told The Epoch Times. “We should be selling bait here. We should be selling fishing supplies. There should be boats parked in our driveway right now.”

(Top) Mineral County Commissioner Tony Ruse fields a phone call at The Big Horn Crossing, a restaurant and convenience store that is the only remaining retail business in Walker Lake, Nev., in January 2026. (Bottom) Walker Lake, a town of fewer than 400 people, is anchored on the slopes of Mount Grant, but no longer supports a fishery, boat races, or the waterfront restaurants and hotels that once made it a desert oasis for tourists, anglers, and campers, in Mineral County, Nev., in January 2026. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

Marlene Bunch and her husband Glenn lead the Walker Lake Working Group, created in 1991 to ensure water reaches the lake to sustain its recreational economy.

“Upstream diversions have been our nemesis, and that’s what our legal case is for,” Bunch, a former Mineral County clerk and treasurer, told The Epoch Times.

Bunch.has lived in Walker Lake since the 1960s. She recalls a 1991 discussion with Nevada Department of Wildlife fisheries biologist Mike Sevon about what would happen if water levels continued to drop.

Diminishing Returns

Walker Lake retains water flowing east 100 miles from California’s Bridgeport and Topaz reservoirs through Nevada’s Smith and Mason valleys and the Walker River Paiute Tribe’s reservation. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, its water levels have declined more than 160 feet since 1882. Nearly 30 miles long in 1850, the lake is only 12 miles long today.

The runoff provided hydrological pressure that sustained area water wells, especially in Walker Lake, where Ruse said residents are seeing “very brackish” water coming from taps, a potential death knell for the town.

“It’s getting harder and harder to keep the federal standards for potable water,” he said. “So there’s going to be a day—and I’m waiting for the call—that we need to put a reverse-osmosis system in, which we couldn’t afford to do.”

Walker Lake and nearby Hawthorne, the Mineral County seat, struggle in the desert—Hawthorne has seen its population decline 60 percent from 10,000 in 1980 to just over 3,000 in 2020. Meanwhile, agriculture in the Smith and Mason valleys has thrived.

(Top) Walker Lake has receded well beyond the sign on U.S. Route 95, in Mineral County, Nev., in January 2026. Decades ago, anglers could shorecast for fish that can no longer survive in the shrinking lake. (Bottom) Nevada’s Walker Lake, a 13-mile-long lake about 75 miles southeast of Reno near the California state line in rural Mineral County, was once more than 30 miles long and 160 feet higher than it is now, in Mineral County, Nev., in January 2026. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

But with mountain runoff unreliable for decades now, when upstream users divert their share, little to no water makes it to Walker Lake, leaving once-bustling waterfront businesses marooned as hulking shells far from a distant, receding shore.

The case, United States and Walker River Paiute Tribe v. Walker River Irrigation District, is not a new case, but ongoing litigation arising from a lawsuit filed in 1924.

It’s part of a flood of litigation stemming from Walker River allocations, going back to 1902, when rancher Henry Miller sued Thomas Rickey over water rights on the river.

A 1936 Walker River Decree issued by the Nevada U.S. District Court finalized water rights for more than 500 private landowners, primarily farmers and ranchers, within the Walker River Basin, including those in the Walker River Irrigation District, under a “first in time, first in right” policy that remains the standard almost a century later.

Like Nevada, most western states allocate water by the policy, known as prior appropriation. Therefore, under the 1936 decree, upstream users have legal priority to Walker River water.

But in 2015, Mineral County filed a lawsuit citing the public trust doctrine, the legal principle that certain natural and cultural resources be preserved for public use.

The lawsuit claimed that under the public trust doctrine, it is the state’s duty to maintain minimum inflows into public waters, such as Walker Lake, to sustain environmental, wildlife, recreational, and economic resources.

The U.S. District Court ruled in the county’s favor. The irrigation district appealed. The U.S. Ninth Circuit Court overturned the ruling; the public trust doctrine, it held, was a state law issue that had not been decided in Nevada.

That kicked the case back to the Nevada Supreme Court, which in 2020 determined all Nevada waters will now be allocated under the public trust doctrine—but that already-issued water rights would not be, and can never be, reallocated.

The Supreme Court of Nevada building in Carson City, Nev., in this file photo. In 2020, the court determined that all Nevada waters will now be allocated under the public trust doctrine. Steven Frame/Shutterstock

The court directed Mineral County to recommend ways to restore the lake without reallocating water rights, and to work with the Walker Basin Conservancy, a nonprofit created in 2014 with federal funding initially secured by Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s Walker Basin Restoration Program.

In 2021, Mineral County amended its 2015 complaint to intervene in the decades’-long parallel suit by the Walker River Paiute Tribe seeking to boost Walker River flows into a reservation reservoir and secure water rights for 167,460 acres added to the reservation since 1936.

The county’s complaint includes 24 “actions … necessary to restore and maintain Walker Lake’s public trust values.”

After years of procedural delays, including a requirement to individually serve more than 1,000 watershed landowners across the country, the case is set to proceed into discovery. A potential trial looms.

But an alternate “win-win” solution orchestrated by the Walker Basin Conservancy is gaining traction and could, perhaps, mitigate the need for a court-ordered resolution.

‘The Only Solution’

Since its creation, the conservancy has restored public access to 33 miles along the Walker River and purchased more than 13,700 acres of water rights, enough to restore about 60 percent of the river inflow biologists maintain is needed to restore the lake’s fishery.

Conservancy CEO Peter Stanton and Water Program Director Carlie Henneman did not return emails and repeated phone requests for comment about the program from The Epoch Times. Nor did the Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Walker River Irrigation District attorney Gordon DePaoli, or Walker Basin Working Group’s Oregon-based legal advisers, Jamie Saul of the Wild & Scenic Law Center and Kevin Cassidy of Lewis & Clark Law School’s Earthrise Law Center.

Several attorneys representing different parties would only speak off-the-record, underscoring the contentious complexities of the case.

A sign of the Walker River Paiute Tribe in Shurz, Nev., on Oct. 16, 2024. Walker Lake retains water flowing east 100 miles from California’s Bridgeport and Topaz reservoirs through Nevada’s Smith and Mason valleys and the Walker River Paiute Tribe’s reservation. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Roderick E. Walston, an attorney with Best Best & Krieger in Walnut Creek, Calif., told The Epoch Times his clients above the Bridgeport Reservoir in California are apprehensive about Mineral County’s suit, which he said essentially demands the federal court to reallocate existing water rights under the public trust doctrine.

“Our response is basically that the Nevada Supreme Court resolved that issue four years ago,” he said.

Walston was a California deputy attorney general in 1983 and argued the Mono Lake case before the California Supreme Court. In that case, the state’s public trust doctrine was used to thwart Los Angeles from purchasing Mono Lake water rights that would have devastated the lake’s ecology and Sierra Nevada economies.

“So I argued both the case in California Supreme Court 40-something years ago and then also argued the case in the Nevada Supreme Court about four years ago,” he said.

Walston said the case could have “great impact” on water disputes in states that uphold the prior allocation doctrine. “This is an absolutely large case,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mineral County District Attorney Ryan McCormick, who assumed his post seven weeks ago, told The Epoch Times he’s playing catch-up in reading filings “from decades and decades of litigation.”

A sign is pictured at Walker Lake in Hawthorne, Nev., on Oct. 16, 2024. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Walker Lake’s water levels have declined more than 160 feet since 1882. Nearly 30 miles long in 1850, the lake is only 12 miles long today. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

“In a perfect world, if we get some specific performance and find a way to divert water back into the lake and have the levels rising again, that would be absolutely ideal,” he said, adding he isn’t privy to the reasoning behind all of the 24 actions assembled by the Walker Lake Working Group.

It’s a complicated case in a long-litigated watershed but the best resolution is simple, McCormick said. “With the best interests of Mineral County, Hawthorne, and Walker Lake in mind here, we would like the lake to be receiving fresh water again. It would be nice to see some economic development right now, right?”

But Walston said odds are slim the court will cast aside the state’s Supreme Court determination that existing water rights cannot be reallocated.

Working with the conservancy and other groups to purchase water rights from willing landowners at $3,000 to $4,000 per acre foot—an acre of one-foot deep water—is a win-win for all involved, he said.

“It’s the only solution, really. The Nevada Supreme Court has said you can’t just take water rights that have been adjudicated and take that water and put it into Walker Lake,” Walston said.

“But you can go to various water users and negotiate with them and buy their water rights. In that case, then you could reallocate.”

Australian television journalist Danika Mason left viewers stunned after a bizarre live broadcast from the snowy chaos of the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics in Italy.

The Today Show sports presenter appeared to slur and stumble her way through her segment amid snowstorm, rambling incoherently before dramatically throwing herself to the ground to make snow angels.

Social media has lit up with speculation after popular Channel 9 sports and rugby league host Danika Mason appeared on morning television struggling to get her words out while covering the Winter Olympics in Italy.⁣
⁣
📌 READ MORE: https://t.co/HKql0kBobM pic.twitter.com/G3yCeBsJFj

— The Advertiser (@theTiser) February 18, 2026

Channel 9 has refused to respond to questions about sports reporter Danika Mason after she appeared to struggle through live Winter Olympics crosses, slurring words and losing focus on air.#SydneyConfidential 🌟 https://t.co/Atasz2fKbD

Get the news first with The Daily… pic.twitter.com/afLOFpCDn7

— The Daily Telegraph (@dailytelegraph) February 18, 2026

In the awkward clip that’s now going viral, Mason veered off topic, declaring: “The price of coffee over here is actually fine… it’s actually the price of coffee in the US we have to get used to… I’m not sure about the iguanas?”

A confused Mason then added: “Where are we going with that one? Anyway, let’s get into today’s sport because there’s plenty happening back home.”

As if the slurring and stammering weren’t cringe-worthy enough, the presenter suddenly rolled around in the snow like a giddy child, creating snow angels for the cameras — leaving co-hosts and viewers alike gobsmacked.

Back in the Sydney studio, host Karl Stefanovic rushed to her defence, blaming the freezing conditions.

“You get out of a car over there (in Italy) and there is such a cold wind, you can’t actually move your lips,” Stefanovic claimed. Mason could be seen giggling at Stefanovic’s quip before the camera mercifully cut away.

Social media users weren’t buying the ‘cold lips’ excuse, flooding platforms with savage mockery, with many bluntly suggesting the reporter was drunk on air.

After hitting the piste, sports reporter Danika Mason files her next live cross with Karl Stefanovic getting right down to the bottom of the story. pic.twitter.com/A4ttolnUUi

— The Kangaroo Court (@TheKangCourt) February 18, 2026

Now crossing live to Danika Mason #Olympics2026 pic.twitter.com/IvQtAn9Ofl

— Max King (3-4 Weeks) (@Deyterkmahjerb) February 18, 2026

and now we cross live to Danika Mason pic.twitter.com/CG4Zklfbhr

— V ✨ (@TicsVitsJacThic) February 18, 2026

Is Danika Mason doing the sports reports on Today while drunk?
A lot of slurring, pausing and uncertainty in her live crosses

— feliz navidud (@DesignedToFade) February 17, 2026

Haha.. Danika Mason drunk as a skunk on live tv 😂 @TheTodayShow

— Liam☘️ (@sergeantshamrog) February 17, 2026

Channel 9 letting Danika Mason on while she’s off her face on pingers is incredible stuff

— Seccy29 (@KurtSymington10) February 18, 2026

One TV insider slammed the decision to keep her on, telling The Sun that Stefanovic and co-host Jayne Azzopardi should have cut her off immediately.

“Even if producers didn’t cut her off, Karl and Jayne (Azzopardi) have been in this game long enough to know she should not have been on air,” the source said. “There’s an entire control room of staff who could have cut her from the broadcast.”

Channel 9 insiders revealed the network is now scrambling to investigate how the control room allowed the chaotic performance to drag on for hours.

“Why did she keep getting let back on? It was clear early”, a source told Daily Mail.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on Wednesday pushed back against allegations of censorship from CBS late-night host Stephen Colbert and a Democratic Texas Senate candidate.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said Colbert could have aired his interview with Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate, if the late-night TV show he hosts complied with federal equal time rules by airing interviews with other Democrats vying for the seat.

“There was no censorship here at all,” Carr told reporters.

“Every single broadcaster in this country has an obligation to be responsible for the programming that they choose to air, and they’re responsible whether it complies with FCC rules or not, and it doesn’t, and those individual broadcasters are also going to have a potential liability.”

Talarico has alleged in posts on his X account that the FCC and the Trump administration had tried to censor the interview and barred him from appearing on Colbert’s program, although the interview was published online.

“The reason the Trump administration and their billionaire friends are trying to silence me and this movement is because they’re worried that we are going to flip Texas in November,” he said in a video, which was posted on X.

Aside from Talarico’s allegations of censorship, Colbert, who is set to leave “The Late Show” in May, also criticized CBS and the Trump administration during his program.

“Then I was told, in some uncertain terms, that not only could I not have him on, I could not mention me not having him on,” the “The Late Show” host said on Tuesday, adding that “because my network clearly doesn’t want us to talk about this, let’s talk about this.”

The interview with Talarico was uploaded to Colbert’s YouTube channel on Tuesday evening.

In statements to media outlets in response to Colbert’s claims, CBS denied that “The Late Show” was barred by the network from airing the Talarico interview and instead said that its lawyers advised the company that the broadcast could trigger the equal time rule.

“The show was provided legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal time rule for two other candidates, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled,” CBS said in the statement.

It noted that the interview was published on the show’s YouTube channel instead.

The issue came just hours before early voting opened Tuesday in Texas’s primary elections, which feature hotly contested Senate nomination races in both parties.

Talarico’s main opponent in the primary is Crockett (D-Texas) and both have built national profiles through viral social media clips.

On the Republican side, four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is facing the political fight of his career against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas).

In a notice last month, the FCC said that it is changing the rules exempting certain late-night and daytime talk shows from being mandated to provide equal airtime to opposing candidates.

“Importantly, the FCC has not been presented with any evidence that the interview portion of any late night or daytime television talk show program on air presently would qualify for the bona fide news exemption,” the FCC said on Jan. 21.

“Moreover, a program that is motivated by partisan purposes, for example, would not be entitled to an exemption under longstanding FCC precedent.”

The Epoch Times contacted the FCC for comment Wednesday.

Authored by Joel Kotkin, Bheki Mahlobo via RealClearInvestigations,

The decline of religion remains a fundamental reality in most Western countries, particularly in Europe, where over 50% of those under age 40 do not identify with any faith. Even in more religious America, some estimate that as many as 100,000 churches will close in the near future. Meanwhile, the ranks of “Nones,” those outside religious communities, have grown so large that their numbers rival those of Catholics and evangelical Protestants.

Yet, as we document in a new report for the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, there are signs that religion is enjoying more than a nascent revival. Data emerging from the 2020s suggest that we are witnessing a complex spiritual restructuring that intersects with economic mobility, demographic resilience, and a profound intellectual realignment.

For the first time in decades, Pew Research notes, in the U.S. at least, Christianity has stopped its nosedive as more people begin to see the efficacy, and the rewards, of religious faith and practice.

This fragile development is especially noteworthy as it exposes growing divides and fault lines in American politics and culture. Drawing on a vast array of longitudinal studies, interviews, and other sources, one startling finding in both America and abroad is that, contrary to past assertions, today the faithful are not poor and ignorant but increasingly from the educated upper middle class. 

Even the cognitive elites are experiencing a growing trend to embrace religious activity. Indeed, in a rebuke of the aggressive New Atheism of the early 2000s advanced by thought leaders such as Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens, a counter-movement appears to be growing among scientists, philosophers, and public intellectuals who view religious tradition not as a delusion to be eradicated but as a sustainable civilizational operating system. 

As our politics splinter along gender – with women increasingly forming the base for Democrats and men, for Republicans – it is men who are leading the return to church. Reversing a 25-year-long trend, men reported higher church attendance than women in 2025. This growing divide may continue to separate men and women, with grave implications at a time when rates of marriage and parenthood are declining.

Even in places where religion continues to decline, the remaining faithful are shifting away from more liberal faiths to those hewing closer to traditional values. For many, more orthodox sects provide existential security and create a sustainable sense of community.

As our report makes clear, the budding religious revival taking place in the U.S. reflects a global trend, especially strong in Africa, which is now the most demographically robust place on the planet. 

The implications and promise of this trend cannot be overstated. Data show that religious communities function as potent engines of human capital accumulation, risk mitigation, and social capital. These mechanisms effectively propel adherents up the socioeconomic ladder. 

There is considerable evidence that faith is again gaining adherents, even in Europe. Last year, for example, there was a 45% increase in the number of people baptized in France. In the U.K., according to an April study by the Bible Society, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds saying they attended church at least monthly has jumped from 4% in 2018 to 16% today. Among young men, it’s increased 21%. Most of this growth is concentrated among Catholics and Pentecostals; the Bible Society suggests there are now more than 2 million more people attending church than in the last decade. 

Spiritual Hunger

In the U.S., there are also signs of spreading spiritual hunger, according to Pew. Relatively few “nones” identify as either atheist or agnostic but consider themselves spiritual outside organized faith. One recent survey showed young people are increasingly embracing a higher power, often using the internet to access traditional beliefs. Research also suggests that most Gen Z teens are interested in learning more about Jesus, with younger cohorts leading the way in the growth of new commitments.

This is particularly marked among men, marking the closing of the so-called “God Gap” between the sexes. In both the U.S. and the U.K., Gen Z men are now retaining or adopting Christian identity at rates equal to or higher than their female peers. Many young men report feeling culturally dislocated or villainized by progressive secular discourse regarding masculinity. Traditional forms of Christianity, particularly Catholicism and Orthodoxy, offer a narrative of responsibility, sacrifice, and hierarchy that appeals to men seeking a defined role in a fluid world. 

Public intellectuals like Jordan Peterson have played a crucial role in re-enchanting the Bible for a secular male audience. By framing biblical narratives as psychological maps for meaning rather than just metaphysical claims, they create an on-ramp for secular men to enter religious spaces. The internet has further facilitated this through the rise of digital orthodoxy, where the aesthetic of antiquity and rigorous discipline appeals to young men to the spiritual vacuity of modern life.

More surprising may be the nascent embrace of religion by scientists and other learned classes. In the early 2000s, the New Atheism gained traction for the view casting religion as a dangerous delusion. By 2025, this movement has largely exhausted itself, replaced by nuanced curiosity and, in some cases, a robust defense of religion among the epistemic elite. 

Longitudinal research by sociologist Elaine Howard Ecklund, based on surveys of scientists in eight regions, including the U.S., the U.K., Turkey, India, and Taiwan, reveals that scientists in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and India are often more religious than the general public. They view science and religion as overlapping or independent spheres, not enemies.

This perspective is emerging in the U.S. as well. Although still a distinct minority, younger scientists under the age of 35 are more likely to attend religious services than the older baby boomer cohort, suggesting that the rigid secularism of the academy is softening with the new generation. Even two decades ago, only 15% of scientists considered religion in conflict with science, while 70% did not see that conflict.

There are even signs of a revival in the technological heartland of secular America – Silicon Valley. Leading figures, including Pat Gelsinger, former head of Intel, Gary Tan, CEO of Y Incubator, and the venture capitalist Peter Theilopenly embrace Christianity. The world’s most important innovator, Elon Musk, has recently become more public in his embrace of Christianity, which he described as “ a religion of curiosity” and “greater enlightenment.”

Membership at Our Lady of Peace Church and Shrine in Santa Clara has risen to more than 3,000 families, according to Father Brian Dinkel, who said the Catholic church hears an estimated 50,000 confessions a year. “People who may be doing well also want something more,” notes Father Dinkel. “Our people work at Google and Apple, but there’s a real search for the truth beyond tech.”

Orthodoxy Flourishing

Even amidst a fledgling religious revival, mainline Protestantism, once a primary cultural and political pillar of American life, is in freefall. Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans, and others now account for less than 11% of the population, down 40% since 2007, according to the Pew Religious Landscape Study. Since 1960, for example, the Episcopalian share of the population has dropped by two-thirds, the Disciples of Christ and United Church of Christ by even more. Lutherans and even Baptists have seen their share shrink by 50%.

More recently, traditional faiths, such as Greek Orthodoxy, have done particularly well. A survey of Orthodox churches around the country found that parishes saw a 78% increase in converts in 2022, compared with pre-pandemic levels in 2019. And while historically men and women converted in equal numbers, vastly more men have joined the church since 2020. The average age of attendees is 42, with 62% between 18 and 45. That’s significantly younger than other major traditions. 

The appeal of Greek Orthodoxy, notes religious intellectual and convert Matt Mattingly, actually lies not in politics or race, but in ancient values. Mattingly, himself a convert, notes in conversations with recent American converts, “I have talked with, I would estimate, 100+ young men headed into Orthodoxy in the past decade or so. It is true that most are strong supporters of this ancient faith’s teachings on marriage, family, sexuality, and gender. Many of these single men are highly motivated to get married and start families. Yes, they are worried about trends in American life and many mainline pews.

Even more ascendant are the Pentecostals, who emphasize direct contact with God. Their numbers have swelled, particularly among immigrants and in the developing world, as well as in the U.S. By some accounts, it is the fastest-growing religion in the world, with over 600 million adherents today and projected to reach one billion by 2050. 

Similarly, among Jews, reform and even conservative synagogues are struggling while those of Orthodox Judaism, particularly the thriving Chabad movement, have gained both members and influence. Critically, it has enjoyed the greatest growth in engagement since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. In contrast to Chabad’s assertive embrace of the Jewish state, some progressive reform rabbis have embraced anti-Zionism, even in the face of overwhelming support among Jews for Israel. Today, Orthodoxy represents one in seven Jews, but by 2040, that is projected to be one in five. 

Elite Marker

A central tenet of secularization theory was that higher education would inevitably lead to lower religiosity. This pattern still holds in Europe, but the 2022-2023 Cooperative Election Study, which included nearly 85,000 respondents, indicates a positive correlation between educational attainment and religious attendance in the United States. High school graduates report attending religious services weekly at a rate of approximately 23%, whereas graduate degree holders report attending weekly at a rate of approximately 30%. 

This suggests that religion is becoming an elite marker in America.[i] Increasingly, at least in the U.S., religious affiliation has become a form of elite social behavior associated with stability, community leadership, and bourgeois respectability. Indeed, a deep dive into the data shows that, over the past 15 years, religiously engaged people have become more likely to be well-educated, while atheists are less so. Generally, the nones tend to be somewhat less schooled than their more religious counterparts.

These findings shatter the notion that religious people are generally less curious, less ambitious, and less intelligent than their non-believing counterparts. Religious groups such as Jews and Hindus, as well as Episcopalians, also outperform atheists and agnostics, while many others, such as Mormons, Lutherans, and other Protestant groups, do as well.

Nowhere is the efficacy of religion more obvious than among poorer Americans. Inner-city boys who attend religious school are twice as likely to graduate from college as their socio-economic counterparts in public schools, notes Tulane sociologist Ilana Horwitz. Critical here, notes Horwitz, are the attributes of the religiously engaged, such as respect for elders and learning, with the deepest divergence felt among working- and middle-class children.

This may be one reason enrollment in private Christian schools has shot up across the nation in recent years. The K-12 enrollment at the Association of Christian Schools International, “one of the country’s largest networks of evangelical schools,” increased 12% between 2019-20 and 2020-21. Since then, particularly during and after the pandemic, private schools, mostly religious, gained 300,000 new students between 2019 and 2023 while public schools lost 1.2 million.

That jump mirrors other migrations out of public school systems, including a doubling in the percentage of kids being homeschooled. In the 2019-20 school year, 6% of all American students, some 3.5 million, attended religious schools. The rise of voucher programs, including in such large states as Texas and Florida, has largely benefited religiously oriented schools. 

Pathway to Success

One subtle effect, most importantly for the poor, is that religious institutions provide a connection to the more affluent. This is a critical factor for success as outlined in the “Social Capital Atlas” project led by Harvard economist Raj Chetty. Utilizing privacy-protected data from 21 billion Facebook friendships linked to tax records and census data, the report found the degree of social interaction between low-income and high-income individuals as the single strongest predictor of whether a poor child would rise out of poverty. High exposure to wealthier peers increases lifetime earnings by an average of 20%.

Chetty’s team found that poorer people associate more with the affluent at religious institutions than at secular institutions like high schools, colleges, and workplaces. A low-income individual attending a religious congregation is significantly more likely to form a meaningful friendship with a high-income congregant than they would be in a workplace, school, or neighborhood group.

Perhaps most critically, religion provides a sense of community and ties that are more tangible than those found online, at school, or in the workplace. For instance, just 10% of religious observants say they have no close friends; the number almost doubles for those who have no faith. For young families, in particular, the religious community offers a village in which to raise children in an era of atomized parenting. This functional utility is a major driver of individuals returning to church in their thirties.

The church, notes Aaron Renn, a leading protestant intellectual, provides a mechanism, particularly for the young, to escape the loneliness and alienation associated with the “negative world.” Even though plagued at times by racial and ethnic division, the church’s role was “not merely socially useful but as “part of a gospel obligation.”

Three-quarters of those who attend church weekly give to the poor, compared with 41% of non-observants. Overall, 73% of all charitable contributions come from religious sources, while 60% of all beds for the homeless are from faith-based institutions.

Indeed, when volunteerism has been on a decline among the young, the young religious are more likely to perform community work than their nonreligious Gen Z counterparts. Data from a nationally representative survey of nearly 2,000 young adults ages 18 to 25 coordinated by Neighborly Faith reveals that half of religious Gen Zers report volunteering in the community often or very often, compared with 30% of slightly religious Gen Zers and just 21% of not religious Gen Zers. 

In the end, our report finds that the growing evidence of religion’s basic utility, including its provision of a spiritual anchor, seems likely to grow, by offering a viable alternative to hyper-competition and individualism rife in secular-driven societies. 

Midterm elections have rarely been kind to the party in the White House. Republicans lost both chambers in 2006 under George W. Bush; Democrats were crushed under Barack Obama in 2010 and again in 2014; Republicans lost the House under Donald Trump in 2018; and Democrats narrowly lost the House under Biden in 2022. The lone exception was 2002, when Republicans gained seats in both chambers after 9/11. Otherwise, the pattern is clear: the president’s party almost always faces setbacks.

With the 2026 midterm elections months away, Democrats have many reasons to feel confident they will, at the very least, win back control of the House, which would be enough to effectively stall Trump’s agenda, and most certainly find something to impeach for. 

Over at RealClearPolitics, Democrats currently hold an average lead in the generic congressional ballot of +4.6 points. Only one pollster in the average – RMG Research – shows Republicans ahead, and even then by just 2 points. The Democratic advantage isn’t particularly large, and there’s ample reason to believe that a strong economy could boost the GOP in November, but when you look at gubernatorial elections, the advantage is clearly with the Republican Party.

On Wednesday, CNN’s Harry Enten painted an unflattering picture of the Democrats when it comes to this year’s gubernatorial races.

“Look at this, a majority, a majority, 26. That is, at this point, the number of governors that are expected at least tilting towards the Republican Party at this point. Democrats come in at just 20. The rest of the races are toss-up,” Enten said. “Of course, you sum up to 50. And I will note that the Republicans right now hold a 26 to 24 gubernatorial seat advantage.”

That’s the current baseline. Republicans enter 2026 holding more governor’s mansions, and the trajectory doesn’t appear to favor a Democratic reversal. But, according to Enten, even accounting for toss-up races, the GOP is likely to come out ahead. “So at this point, it doesn’t look like Republicans on the net and the aggregate are actually going to lose any governorships. In fact, when you add in those toss-ups, they may gain,” he explained. “So this should stand as a major wake-up call to Democrats, because if there’s a wave building, it has not, at least at this point, hit the state level when it comes to governorships.”

Governor races nationwide should stand as a wakeup call for Dems.

At this point, the GOP will more likely than not continue to hold a majority of governorships post-election.

Dems haven’t held a majority of governorships since 2010 — their longest streak in over 100 years. pic.twitter.com/DRKAryEFL8

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 18, 2026

Democrats have not held a majority of governorships since 2010 – the longest stretch of gubernatorial minority status the party has endured in at least a century. Republicans have controlled a majority of state legislatures since 2012. One might call that a structural realignment that’s been hiding in plain sight while national media fixates on presidential elections and control of Congress.

Why does any of this matter? Enten answered that directly. “This is a massive problem for Democrats, because as we mentioned at the top, a lot of the policy is determined on the state level. And if all of a sudden you can’t actually lead a majority of governorships, the executive branch on the state level, that means Republicans are in fact forming and implementing most of the policies in the states, and therefore a lot of the policies nationwide,” he said.

The way Enten sees it, congressional seats may generate headlines, but governorships generate policy at the state level, which could have nationwide implications, including Medicaid expansion decisions, election integrity, redistricting, and regulatory enforcement – all of it flows through state executives. 

Democrats clearly enter the 2026 midterm elections with a structural advantage in winning control of Congress, but the GOP may still have a hidden advantage due to its majority of governorships. 

Authored by Anne Johnson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

If you come into some extra funds, you might want to consider applying them to your mortgage. It’s a great way to pay down the principal or lower your monthly mortgage payment. Lowering your monthly mortgage payment is particularly helpful if you often have cash-flow issues.

There are ways to lower your monthly mortgage by using recasting or refinancing. Each option works differently, so it’s important to understand how they compare.

Recasting a Mortgage

Mortgage recasting is when you make a lump-sum payment to your principal balance. Once done, your lender then calculates a new, lower monthly payment. Your interest rate stays the same.

For example, suppose you owe $250,000 on your mortgage and receive a $50,000 inheritance. If you use all of it to recast your mortgage, your lender will recalculate your monthly payments based on a $250,000 balance, lowering your monthly payment.

Refinancing a Mortgage

With refinancing a mortgage, you take out a new home loan and use it to pay off the outstanding balance of your existing mortgage. This is often done to secure a lower rate. Typically, the new rate results in a lower monthly payment and less overall cost.

Refinancing doesn’t require a lump sum payment toward the principal.

Costs of Recasting and Refinancing a Mortgage

According to Experian, both recasting and refinancing come with costs. For example, you will be charged an administrative fee for a mortgage recast. This typically runs a few hundred dollars, depending on the lender.

Mortgage refinancing has a different cost structure. Closing costs can total two to five percent of the loan amount.

Can All Types of Mortgages Be Recast or Refinanced?

Conventional loans can be recast, but according to PNC Insights, not all mortgage types are eligible. Government-backed loans, including those from the Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, are not eligible for recast.

Conventional and government-backed mortgages are eligible for refinancing.

When Do Borrowers Refinance or Recast a Mortgage?

Refinancing, technically, gives you a new mortgage with new interest and terms. For example, if you have a 30-year mortgage, you can refinance to a 15-year mortgage or vice versa.

Most borrowers refinance to obtain a better interest rate or switch from an adjustable-rate to a fixed mortgage. They also may use it to switch equity to cash.

A mortgage recast uses cash to pay down some of the loan’s principal. It is often used when a borrower receives a large sum of money, such as a bonus or an inheritance.

According to PNC Insights, it can be used when a borrower purchases a house before selling the current one. When the previous home sells, the proceeds can be used to recast the new home’s mortgage.

However, the lender may require two months of on-time payments before authorizing a recast.

Advantages of a Mortgage Recast

There are several benefits of a mortgage recast. By reducing your principal, you lower your monthly payment without extending your loan term.

A recast mortgage is not a new loan. So, you will not need a credit check or home appraisal to apply.

If you’re already locked into a low interest rate, it’s a way to keep your current rate while lowering your monthly payment.

There usually are lower administrative fees associated with a recast mortgage. According to Alcova Mortgage, they typically fall between $150 and $500.

According to SoFi Learn, if you make a lump-sum payment to bring your loan down to 80 percent of the home’s value, you can request to stop paying the private mortgage insurance or have it automatically dropped when the value reaches 78 percent.

Disadvantages of a Mortgage Recast

According to Rocket Mortgage, there are cons to a mortgage recast. One disadvantage is that your lender may not allow a recast. You are also limited to a conventional loan, because government-backed loans don’t allow a mortgage recast.

The loan-repayment term is not shortened, either. Your payment goes down, but if you have a 30-year loan, you can’t change it to a 15-year or other-year loan.

Losing access to equity is a problem. Your contributed cash will be tied up in your home equity. This means you’ll need to refinance or apply for a home equity loan or home equity line of credit if you need access to your home’s equity.

Refinancing Mortgage Advantages

You have options when refinancing. The loan conditions can be changed. For example, you can shorten or lengthen your term, take a lower interest rate or refinance to a new loan.

Almost any loan qualifies for a refinance. It may be your only option if you want a lower payment and you have a government-backed loan.

You also have the option to choose a new lender if you’re not satisfied with the current one.

Refinancing Mortgage Disadvantages

Refinancing is a new loan and usually has more costs than a recast. Refinanced loans include origination fees, appraisal fees, and other closing costs.

The clock turns back with a refinanced loan. This means if you’re 15 years into a 30-year loan, if you finance for another 30-year loan, it starts over. You lost the 15 years you already paid for.

With refinancing, since it’s technically a new loan, you pay more in interest at the beginning of your loan. You don’t start paying on the principal until later in the term. This means you could end up paying more interest throughout the life of the loan.

Mortgage Recasting and Refinancing

A mortgage recast lowers your monthly payments and saves you money on long-term interest. But you tie up equity.

However, not everyone qualifies for a recast. If you have a government-backed loan, for example, you’ll need to refinance.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2026. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times and ZeroHedge hold no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration has resulted in an 80% collapse in net immigration to the USA, and has fundamentally altered the mathematics behind the nation’s labor supply to the point where the level of job growth needed to maintain economic stability is now far lower, according to a new Goldman analysis. 

After a flood of more than 10.8 million illegal immigrants (official figure) entered the United States under Biden, net immigration – both legal and illegal – has gone from roughly one million people per year in the 2010s to around 500,000 in 2025, with a further drop to just 200,000 projected by Goldman for 2026. This has sharply reduced labor-force growth and lowered the economy’s “breakeven” pace of job creation, the bank opines.

Here’s Goldman vs. Brookings vs. the Congressional Budget Office on net immigration:

Now, the US will only need around 50,000 new jobs per month by the end of this year to keep the unemployment rate from rising, down from roughly 70,000 today.

At the same time, Goldman says labor demand still looks “shaky” because job growth is narrow and job openings are trending lower – with the main downside risk being a faster, more disruptive AI-driven adjustment that could tamp down hiring or raise job losses beyond current estimates. 

Elevated deportations, tighter visa / green-card policies, a pause in immigrant visa processing that affects dozens of countries, and the loss of Temporary Protected Status for some groups, Goldman suggests there is additional downside risk to the workforce.

A shakier demand picture

Of course, new math on the labor supply doesn’t mean the labor market is strong (duh)… In fact, Goldman describes demand as “shaky,” writing that job growth has become increasingly narrow – dominated by healthcare – and that job openings have continued to fall. Openings are now around seven million, below pre-pandemic levels and still declining.

Because fewer new workers are entering the economy, hiring no longer needs to run as hot to prevent unemployment from drifting higher. “A small pickup is all that should be needed to sustain job growth at the breakeven pace,” according to the report, arguing that weaker-looking payroll numbers may increasingly mask a labor market that is merely treading water rather than deteriorating.

Official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a similar trend, with job openings drifting toward the mid-six-million range late last year. A continued slide in openings, Goldman warns, would increase the risk that unemployment rises more meaningfully, even with slower labor-force growth.

There is also a risk that tighter immigration enforcement is pushing more workers into informal or off-the-books employment. If so, official payroll data could understate the true level of labor-market activity, complicating the Federal Reserve’s task of gauging economic momentum.

AI looms as the wildcard

Goldman sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the largest downside risk to the labor outlook – not because it has already triggered mass layoffs, but because it may restrain hiring at the margin. So far, the firm estimates that AI-related substitution has shaved only 5,000 to 10,000 jobs from monthly growth in the most exposed industries. But a faster or more disruptive deployment could weigh more heavily on demand.

…the main reason that we worry about downside risk to our baseline forecast that the labor market will stabilize going forward is the possibility of a faster and more disruptive deployment of artificial intelligence (AI). While plenty of recent anecdotes point to a potentially faster rate of adoption and corresponding job losses, it is hard to know how these will translate to macroeconomic outcomes. -Goldman

The bank shows that job growth has slowed and turned slightly negative in several subindustries where AI is most ready to deploy, while company-level anecdotes indicate that AI is already reducing the need for workers. The impact, while visible, remains ‘moderate’ so far. 

For now, the bank expects the unemployment rate to drift only modestly higher, toward 4.5%, while Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a separate note (available to Pro subs) that the probability of a recession next year is “moderate” at 20%. The labor market, in the firm’s words, is taking “early steps toward stabilization.”

The paradox is that stability may increasingly look like weakness. As immigration slows and the workforce grows more slowly, payroll gains that once signaled trouble may soon be enough to keep the labor market steady – at least on paper.

h/t Capital.news