58.1 F
Chicago
Monday, May 4, 2026
Home Blog Page 228

Iran Leans On Russia To Develop Oilfields

0
Iran Leans On Russia To Develop Oilfields

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Iran and Russia are strengthening their economic and energy cooperation and consider joint development of another Iranian oilfield, top officials from the countries said on Wednesday.    

Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev led a high-level Russian delegation on a visit to Tehran this week during which Tsivilev and Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad discussed deepening the economic and energy cooperation.

In the face of increased pressure from U.S. sanctions, Iran and Russia have boosted their bilateral relations to strategic cooperation and Russian companies help develop oilfields in Iran.  

“Within the framework of four contracts and in the field of development of oil and gas fields, we are jointly implementing the development of seven oil fields with Russian companies, and fortunately some of these projects have led to production, which is considered a valuable achievement,” Paknejad said on Wednesday, as carried by Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA. 

Some of these oil and gas fields have started up production, the officials said.  

Commenting on this week’s Iran-Russia talks, a senior official at the Iranian Oil Ministry said that the share of Russia-developed fields in Iran’s oil production is set to double in the coming years. 

Russia is currently investing in seven Iranian oil fields, which account for about 6% of Iran’s total oil production, said Mostafa Barzegar, Director General for Europe, America and the Commonwealth of Independent States at the Ministry of Oil’s International Affairs Department.  

Expectations are that the share could jump to 12% over the next few years, Barzegar said. 

In the energy sector, the official said that cooperation in oil and gas is one of the pillars of Iran–Russia relations, Iran News Daily reports. 

Iran and Russia have also signed a $25-billion memorandum of understanding for the construction of new large-scale and small-scale nuclear power plants in the Sirik region in southern Iran. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 19:15

GLP-1 Anti-Obesity U.S. Drug Market In Four Charts

0
GLP-1 Anti-Obesity U.S. Drug Market In Four Charts

Beyond the most recent GLP-1 feud between Hims & Hers and Novo Nordisk, UBS analysts shift attention to anti-obesity drug trends in the U.S. market for the first week of February.

Analysts led by Matthew Weston focused on new data that show new-to-brand prescriptions (NBRx) for starter doses and all doses across the major obesity GLP-1s in a series of charts:

Obesity GLP-1 starter dose NBRx (up to 2/6/2026)

GLP-1 starter dose NBRx trends (up to 2/6/2026)

GLP-1 starter dose NBRx market share (up to 2/6/2026)

Obesity GLP-1 all doses Total Prescriptions (TRx, up to 2/6/2026)

Weston concluded:

NBRx trends for Wegovy continue to look strong with an encouraging start to the Wegovy pill launch. The uptick in NBRx at the start of the year for Wegovy pen is also going in the right direction. Importantly, the high proportion of Wegovy NBRx pill to TRx and high proportion of Wegovy pill starter dose NBRx to total NBRx suggest that there is very little cannibalisation of Wegovy pen volumes through the pill launch. Further focus points later in the year will be Medicare coverage from July, high dose Wegovy (7.2mg) launch and competitive dynamics from LLY’s orforglipron launch (UBSe April).

The latest GLP-1 headline came from Europe earlier on Tuesday, when the European Commission cleared Novo to use a higher 7.2 mg maintenance dose of Wegovy. This approval reinforces that even greater demand for semaglutide is inbound.

In markets, Novo shares in Copenhagen have been pummeled by market share losses to rival GLP-1 drugs, a public feud with Hims & Hers over copycat GLP-1 offerings, and a recently downbeat outlook for the year. Still, the stock’s downside momentum has eased in recent quarters, although it remains about 70% below its 2024 peak.

Meanwhile, Goldman analyst Faris Mourad previously told clients that “obesity drug narrative sentiment is on the rise” and “it’s an opportunity to buy the dip.” James Quigley (Novo superbull) has remained bullish during Novo’s bear market.

Professional subscribers can read the full UBS GLP-1 note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal​​​.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 17:20

Voter ID Is Common Sense, But It Won’t Fix Anything

0
Voter ID Is Common Sense, But It Won’t Fix Anything

Authored by Connor O’Keefe via The Mises Institute,

As panic builds within the GOP over the approaching midterm elections, Republicans have renewed a push for one of their most popular policy proposals: voter ID.

In the latest version of the so-called SAVE America Act—formerly just the SAVE Act—Congressional Republicans added a requirement for every voter in federal elections to provide poll workers with a valid government-issued photo ID if they’re voting in person or a copy of a valid photo ID if they’re voting by mail.

On Friday—a day after the House passed the law and sent it to the Senate—President Trump put out a post in support of voter ID requirements, which led Senate Democrats to issue familiar denunciations of the policy while promising to block this version of the bill.

The arguments in favor of voter ID are pretty straightforward. If every eligible American citizen is entitled to one vote, poll workers and election officials should confirm that the person voting is who they say they are, so that people cannot submit extra or fraudulent votes by pretending to be someone else. And the best way to do that is the same way identities are confirmed in most other clerical settings—with an officially-recognized photo ID.

The vast majority of Americans, including over 70 percent of Democrats, are in favor of this measure. But that hasn’t stopped top Democratic leaders and many of the Left’s most vocal activists from blocking legislation and loudly opposing any step towards a federal voter ID law.

However, the arguments most often made against voter ID do not stand up well to even the slightest scrutiny. 

First, opponents will often point out—correctly—that there is no undisputable evidence of “widespread” voter fraud. They’ll then use that fact to argue that voter ID is a burdensome solution to a fake problem.

But if there was an actual conspiracy to either foment or permit voter fraud in a way that successfully flipped an election, it would not be “widespread,” it would be targeted. Even in large national elections like the presidential race, the outcome is almost always decided by a small handful of precincts. So a conspiracy to commit or allow “widespread” voter fraud would not only be pointless, it would all but guarantee its discovery.

Next, critics often assert that an ID requirement would prevent millions of legitimate voters from casting their ballots because they do not currently have a valid photo ID. But if that’s really true, the emphasis has been in the wrong place. The difficulties faced by people without any form of photo ID go far beyond voting, since ID requirements have become an increasingly frequent aspect of American public life. The obvious way for politicians to fix that problem would be to make it easier for people to get photo IDs, not to leave all those clerical barriers in place while preserving a gap that could allow people to commit voter fraud.

Finally, with the SAVE America Act specifically, its opponents in Congress are trying to frame this as an illegal “nationalization” of elections. There may be something to this argument if Trump tries to do this through executive action. But the Constitution gives Congress a fair amount of control over federal elections, which it has used with recent legislation like the National Voter Registration Act, the Voting Rights Act, and the Help America Vote Act.

Overall, it’s quite clear that the arguments against voter ID are not genuine arguments but excuses to preserve a status quo that has been advantageous to the party making them.

The lopsided polling on this issue indicates that most people, in both parties, aren’t falling for these talking points anymore.

So even if the SAVE America Act stalls in the Senate, it is certainly possible that some version of voter ID will become federal law in the near future.

But while that would probably be great for Republican politicians, candidates, and RNC officials focused on beating Democrats in elections, there is no reason to think it alone will genuinely put this country on a better path.

Because, while there are indeed some meaningful differences between the parties which keep elections from becoming an entirely meaningless ritual, the lesson of the last twenty years—at least—is that people tend to significantly overestimate how much elections matter, and, in doing so, get distracted from the most malicious and damaging government programs, which tend to have quiet, bipartisan support.

In the past two decades, almost every single presidential election has been won by a so-called “change” candidate who presented themselves as a sharper departure from the status quo than their opponent.

Obama won in 2008 by presenting himself as a repudiation of the financial cronyism and foreign interventionism of the W. Bush years. Trump won in 2016 by campaigning against the foreign wars, lax immigration restrictions, and crony neoliberalism of both the establishment Democrats and Republicans. Even in 2020, Biden rode to victory on a wave of utter exhaustion with the chaos of Trump’s media war with the establishment and the pandemonium set off by the government’s response to the covid pandemic—presenting himself as an abrupt deviation back to the “normalcy” of the Obama years. Finally, in his second victory, Trump and his team presented themselves as being ready and able to really deliver all the change he had promised the first time around, having totally learned from their mistakes in the first term.

But each and every time, the “change” candidate ended up delivering the exact kind of crony, inflationist, interventionist status quo with, at most, a few minor and easily-reversible executive actions to keep their base happy for a bit.

As Ryan McMaken laid out in an article earlier this month, this shouldn’t surprise anybody who understands where power truly resides in this country. It does not lie mostly with the handful of bombastic politicians and political appointees who fill the heavily-televised halls and briefing rooms on Capitol Hill, at the White House, and in the various executive agencies, as we learn in elementary school.

The bulk of federal power lies with a large group of governing elites, most of whom are faceless, seemingly unimportant bureaucrats, “nonpartisan” federal officials, and well-connected heads of industry. And that class of people—call them the establishment, the political class, the elites, whatever—are not willing or interested in surrendering their power.

Primarily by using their institutional control to determine which candidates voters get the option of voting for, the established governing elites have brought about a comfortable political status quo for them where both major parties spend all their time fighting ferociously over issues that—while certainly not unimportant—pose no actual risk to the establishment’s interventionist, inflationist, crony rackets that are quietly expanding their power and transferring a tremendous amount of the American public’s wealth to the elites and their friends.

This has been great for the establishment. But the whole scheme requires keeping the population blind to how badly it’s being ripped off. And, as I hinted at above, one of the main ways the current governing elites in America do that is by aggressively playing up the differences between establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats, to keep us all in a state of perpetual certainty that nearly all of our current societal problems will be, if not solved, greatly diminished if “our party” just wins the next election.

Look back at the unbridled joy and overwhelming sense of accomplishment and hope that voters on both sides felt after their party won each of the elections I talked about before. With Obama in 2008, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump again in 2024, there was a palpable sense among their supporters after the election that the battle was won, and things would now, finally, be alright. The same goes for a lot of midterm elections—most famously the “Republican Revolution” in 1994 and the Democrats’ “Blue Wave” in 2018.

All that optimism looks almost delusional in hindsight, knowing where we’ve ended up. But that isn’t really the fault of the voters in question. They were deliberately tricked. Because there is no better way for the current elites to fortify their power than to convince roughly half of the population at any given time that they are in control now, that they are in power, that they are winning.

If we’re ever going to truly escape this awful status quo—as a sizable portion of the American public clearly desires—it won’t come from a policy like voter ID. It will happen once “both sides” understand that they are losing.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 17:00

Teacher Loses Career Over Two-Word Facebook Post Supporting ICE

0
Teacher Loses Career Over Two-Word Facebook Post Supporting ICE

James Heidorn, who taught at Gary Elementary School in West Chicago, found himself at the center of a community firestorm that cost him not just his teaching position but his identity as an educator, all for posting two words on Facebook: “Go ICE.” 

The incident began in late January when Heidorn, a 14-year physical education teacher, responded to a news story about a local police department pledging cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. His personal Facebook post sparked immediate backlash in the heavily Hispanic district, with local activists circulating screenshots and demanding action against him.

School officials quickly notified Heidorn on Jan. 22 about growing social media chatter.

After meeting with HR staff that same day, he resigned briefly, then rescinded his decision hours later.

He was set to return on Monday pending an investigation. The investigation never got that chance.

“This process has been professionally and personally devastating and surreal,” former West Chicago teacher James Heidorn told Fox News Digital.

“I’ve spent 14 years building my career, pouring my heart into teaching kids, building relationships and being a positive role model. To see it all upended over two simple words, ‘Go ICE,’ where I expressed my personal support for law enforcement felt like a severe blow to my career.”

Indeed, the outcry was relentless. 

Illinois state Sen. Karina Villa, a Democrat, publicly condemned the post.

“I stand in unwavering solidarity with families upset about the disturbing comments reportedly made by an educator,” Villa said.

West Chicago Mayor Daniel Bovey joined the pile-on before any investigation concluded. In a Saturday Facebook video, he explained why Heidorn’s comments were “hurtful” and “offensive” to the community.

“So to have someone cavalierly rooting on—as if it’s a football game or something, yeah go—events which have traumatized these children… that is the issue,” Bovey said.

Meanwhile, parents organized online, planning a boycott by keeping their kids from school, and the city held a “listening session” on Jan. 26 at Bovey’s request, complete with a Spanish translator. Attendees described the post as “cruel” and said “kids do not feel safe.”

Heidorn maintained that his post meant nothing beyond supporting law enforcement.

“This started with a two-word comment on my personal Facebook page supporting law enforcement—nothing more,” Heidorn said. “It wasn’t directed at any student, family or school community.”

The distinction made no difference to the community or to the school administrators.

“I was placed on leave and faced intense pressure before any full investigation or fair process could play out, with this it led to my resignation,” Heidorn said. He resigned a second time rather than face termination after a hearing with school officials.

A West Chicago Elementary School District 33 spokesperson called the post “disruptive” and said it “raised concerns and caused disruption for students, families and staff.” The district declined to specify which rule Heidorn violated or whether teachers who publicly disrupt in favor of opposing immigration enforcement would face similar consequences. In fact, teachers across the country have protested President Trump’s immigration policies without repercussions. In Chicago specifically, teachers even stormed a Target and harassed employees over the same policies without losing their jobs. But expressing support for law enforcement in Chicago is apparently controversial. 

“It does feel like a double standard—due to my viewpoint being different from others within the community that I taught in,” Heidorn said. “Fairness should apply equally, regardless of those viewpoints. If personal political speech is grounds for punishment, it should be consistent—not selective based on what side you’re on.”

The fallout extended beyond his teaching position. Heidorn lost his coaching job at a nearby private school. He must now inform future employers that he resigned and explain why. “I really don’t know what is next for me, as the teaching profession has been, up to this point in time, all that I ever wanted to do,” Heidorn said.

He earned a master’s degree in educational leadership to become the best teacher possible. Now he spends time healing. “I lost my career, my income and the chance to close out my time with my students properly—no farewell, no goodbyes,” Heidorn said.

Despite the loud outcry, Heidorn has received some local support, including a GoFundMe being set up for him. 

“James Heidorn, a beloved physical education teacher at Gary Elementary School, resigned after a single social media comment ignited outrage and a one-sided account that quickly spiraled beyond control,” the GoFundMe page reads. “What followed was not reflection or fairness, but permanent consequences that have changed the course of his life.”

As for his future, he’s not sure what’s going to happen.

“I really don’t know what is next for me, as the teaching profession has been, up to this point in time, all that I ever wanted to do,” he said. “It is all I have ever studied for and teaching is what has defined me. Even advancing my education with a master’s degree in educational leadership because I wanted to become the best teacher I can be.”

Heidorn said he’s exploring other options in education or related fields. “I want people to know I’m grateful for the outpouring of support from those who reached out, donated or shared my story,” he said. “It reminds me that most people value fairness and second chances. I’m determined to move forward positively and keep contributing to kids’ lives in whatever way I can.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 16:40

Panics, Politics, & Power: America’s 3 Experiments With Central Banks

0
Panics, Politics, & Power: America’s 3 Experiments With Central Banks

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Reserve, established more than a century ago, is the United States’ third experiment with central banking.

For much of its existence, the institution maintained a low public profile.

Only after the 2008 global financial crisis did the Fed begin communicating more openly, introducing post-meeting press conferences and allowing monetary policymakers to engage more frequently with the media.

Greater transparency, however, has brought greater scrutiny.

Public sentiment toward the Fed and its leadership has fluctuated over the years. Today, YouGov polling suggests the central bank is viewed favorably by 44 percent of Americans and unfavorably by 18 percent.

If the Fed pursues a series of reforms, it will have “another great 100 years,” said Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as the institution’s next chair.

Comparable to past central banks, Warsh said, the current Federal Reserve System is beginning to lose the consent of the governed.

“You can think about the Jacksonians of prior times say that the central bank seems like they’re trying to focus and they’re all preoccupied with those special interests on the East Coast, and they’ve lost track of what’s happening to us in the center of the country,” Warsh said in a July 2025 interview with the Hoover Institution’s Peter Robinson.

“It’s a version of what worries me today.”

What happened in the past, and why is it relevant to today’s central bank?

The First Bank of the United States

In the aftermath of the American Revolution, the United States faced a series of immense economic disruptions, forcing the nation’s architects to rebuild the economy.

The objective was to lower inflation, restore the value of the nation’s currency, repay war debt, and revive the economy.

Alexander Hamilton, the first secretary of the Treasury under the new Constitution, proposed establishing a national bank modeled on the Bank of England. Hamilton stated that a U.S. version would perform various duties, including issuing paper money, serving as the government’s fiscal agent, and protecting public funds.

Not everyone shared Hamilton’s ebullience over a central bank.

Thomas Jefferson, for example, feared that such an institution would not serve the nation’s best interests. Additionally, Jefferson and other critics argued that the Constitution did not grant the government the authority to create these entities.

Nevertheless, Congress enacted legislation to establish the Bank of the United States. President George Washington then signed the bill in February 1791.

Two of America’s founding fathers: Thomas Jefferson (L) and Alexander Hamilton. The White House

While bank officials did not conduct monetary policy as modern central banks do, they did influence the supply of money and credit, as well as interest rates.

The entity managed the money supply by controlling when to redeem or retain state‑bank notes. If it sought to tighten credit, it would require payment in gold or silver, thereby draining state banks’ reserves and limiting their ability to issue new notes. If it wanted to expand credit, it simply held on to those notes, boosting state‑bank reserves and enabling them to lend more.

By 1811, the national bank’s charter expired.

While there had been discussions of allowing it to continue maintaining operations, Congress—both chambers—voted against renewing its mandate by a single vote.

Its closure came shortly before the War of 1812, which fueled inflation and weakened the currency.

Second Bank of the United States

Lawmakers believed another central bank was critical at a time of fiscal, inflationary, and trade pressures.

Congress used a similar 20-year model to produce the Second Bank of the United States, headed by Nicholas Biddle. The second incarnation had a federal charter, was privately owned, and was tasked with regulating state banks (with gold and silver for note redemption).

President James Madison, who opposed the first central bank on constitutional grounds, supported the new institution out of financial necessity.

Its creation stabilized credit and brought down inflation. However, by the 1830s, the bank faced strong opposition, particularly from President Andrew Jackson.

Labeled the Bank War, Jackson engaged in a years-long initiative to dissolve the central bank.

Jackson claimed the national bank was a tool for the wealthy eastern elite and a threat to self-government.

“The Jacksonians described themselves as conscious hard-money men who supported the rigid discipline of the gold standard, yet they opposed the newly powerful national Bank because it restrained the expansion of credit and, thus, thwarted robust economic expansion,” author William Greider wrote in “Secrets of the Temple.”

In 1832, Jackson vetoed legislation to recharter the bank four years early, delivering a fiery message that historians say was one of the most important vetoes in the nation’s history.

“It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government,” Jackson wrote.

“There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me, there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles.”

The charter expired in 1836, leading to the panic of 1837.

An economic crisis unfolded, leading to bank failures, business bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and contracting credit. While the collapse of the central bank is often considered a leading cause, the British also urged London banks to reduce credit to American merchants, causing a sharp drop in global trade.

As the smoke cleared and dust settled, it was not until the 1840s that the United States embarked on a historic economic recovery, now known as the Free Banking Era.

Banking was decentralized, and finance was largely unregulated. Despite an erratic financial system, the U.S. economy grew rapidly: agricultural production accelerated, railroads were built, and the country expanded westward. Additionally, deflation was paramount throughout most of the economic expansion.

The Federal Reserve System

The panic of 1907 led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System.

Following years of heavy borrowing, speculative commodities investments (mainly copper), and enormous stock market gains, a financial crisis was brewing. The event nearly brought down the U.S. banking system.

J.P. Morgan, a financier, intervened and emulated the actions of modern central banks. He met with the nation’s top bankers, facilitated emergency loans to financial institutions, and backed stockbrokers. The damage had been done as the United States fell into a year-long recession, marked by high unemployment and widespread bank failures.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors seal in Washington on Oct. 29, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Washington realized that it could not rely on private bailouts to prevent sharp downturns.

Sen. Nelson Aldrich (R-R.I.) is widely regarded as one of the chief architects of the modern Federal Reserve System.

In 1910, Aldrich hosted the famous Jekyll Island meetings, a gathering of U.S. officials and bankers, to discuss the blueprint of a new central bank.

While the initial draft laid the foundation for the institution, the official Federal Reserve Act was drafted by President Woodrow Wilson, Rep. Carter Glass (D-Va.), and H. Parker Willis, an economist on the House Banking Committee.

The new system was a public-private hybrid, with the federal government firmly in charge, and bankers running the regional reserve banks.

“It was Wilson’s great compromise,” wrote Greider, “creating a hybrid institution that mixed private and public control, an approach without precedent at the time.”

The legislation triggered a contentious political debate over the extent of its independence from the Treasury and the degree of authority delegated to policymakers over currency issuance.

Days before Christmas, the bill cleared both chambers and was signed into law by Wilson on Dec. 23.

“Wilson’s conviction that he had struck the right moderate balance seemed confirmed, however, by the reactions to his legislation,” Greider noted.

“It was attacked by both extremes—the ‘radicals’ from the Populist states and the bankers in Wall Street and elsewhere.”

Since its inception in 1913, the modern Federal Reserve has undergone numerous changes and has gained greater power.

The New Deal, for instance, allowed the Fed to become the lender of last resort as Washington learned the central bank could not prevent bank failures.

In 1951, the Treasury-Fed Accord restored central bank independence after the Federal Reserve had been forced to keep interest rates artificially low throughout the Second World War.

Congress then enacted the Federal Reserve Reform Act in 1977, establishing the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability.

2026 and Beyond

Over the past 50 years, the Fed has undergone modest changes, including the issuance of forward guidance and the disclosure of emergency lending facilities.

But while each new regime has nibbled around the edges, Warsh has suggested he could effect substantial reforms at the central bank.

“Until there’s regime change at the Fed and new people running the Fed, a new operating framework, they’re stuck with their old mistakes,” Warsh told Fox Business Network in October 2025.

“Bygones aren’t just bygones.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 16:20

Wexner Says He Was ‘Conned’ By Epstein, Did ‘Nothing Wrong’

0
Wexner Says He Was ‘Conned’ By Epstein, Did ‘Nothing Wrong’

After what must have been quite the prep session with lawyers, billionaire Les Wexner – who gave Jeffrey Epstein “about a billion dollars” in cash and assets – testified to the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday that he was “conned” by Epstein, and denied any wrongdoing.

Les Wexner denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes during testimony to House lawmakers.House Oversight and Government Reform Committee

In a prepared statement, the 88-year-old former L Brands (which owned Victoria’s Secret) CEO said: 

Let me state from the start: I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein. He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide. I completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.

And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein’s criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein’s illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret, like many others, I was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him.

Yet many aren’t buying it – including the FBI in 2019, which listed Wexner as a potential co-conspirator

Meanwhile Epstein wrote to Wexner in a draft email: “You and I had ‘gang stuff’ for over 15 years,” adding “I owe a great debt to you, as frankly you owe to me” and that he had “no intention of divulging any confidence of ours.”

Also strange:

After launching a business relationship in the 1980s, Wexner and Epstein formed ‘a financial and personal bond that baffled longtime associates,’ according to the New York Times

“I think we both possess the skill of seeing patterns,” Wexner told Vanity Fair in 2003. “But Jeffrey sees patterns in politics and financial markets, and I see patterns in lifestyle and fashion trends.” 

Wexner would go on to open doors for Epstein – who managed “many aspects of his financial life.” 

By 1995, Epstein was a director of the Wexner Foundation and Wexner Heritage Foundation and president of Wexner’s N.A. Property Inc., which developed the Ohio town of New Albany, where Wexner lives. Epstein also was involved in Wexner’s superyacht, “Limitless,” attending meetings at the London studios of the firm that designed the vessel. –Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Epstein allegedly ran a ‘casting couch’ operation for aspiring Victoria’s Secret models out of his Manhattan townhome whereby he would promise young girls jobs with the fashion company. 

Epstein “relied on …[the] modeling business to source underage girls for sex,” according to investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff’s new book “Trafficking.” 

Model Elisabetta Tai

According to an account by Italian model Elisabetta Tai, Epstein tried to take advantage of the 21-year-old aspiring Victoria’s Secret model in 2004 after she was promised that a meeting with a ‘very important’ man could land her a gig with the apparel company. 

Accuser Holds Wexner Responsible

In late 2019, a woman who says Jeffrey Epstein and his ‘madam’ Gislaine Maxwell sexually assaulted her holds Victoria’s Secret billionaire Leslie Wexner “responsible for what happened to me,” because she was staying on a property monitored by Wexner and his wife, and guarded by their security team, according to the Washington Post

Maria Farmer, now in her mid-50s, spoke with the Post in a series of interviews, telling the paper that she never met Leslie, and only spoke with Abigail via phone while at the property in New Albany, Ohio. 

In the summer of 1996, Farmer stayed at the country house that Wexner had deeded to Epstein four years earlier. While staying staying there, she was discouraged from going outside by Wexner’s security, and that she was forced to jog inside the 10,600 square-foot house. 

“Where I stayed that summer, in that house and working in that garage, all of it was within view of the Wexner house,” said Farmer. 

The house, although owned by Epstein at the time, was “effectively the guesthouse” for the main Wexner estate, and it was guarded only by Wexner personnel, according to a security officer involved with Wexner family security at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to discuss clients publicly. The two homes are a half-mile apart. The grounds were monitored closely by guard dogs and their armed minders, this officer said. It was surrounded by Wexner’s land, according to property records.

Anybody that was going to be coming on property had to be announced and allowed in by the Wexners,” added the officer. “Nobody had carte blanche to go in and off the property.”

Farmer, then 26, had just been invited to create two large-scale paintings for the upcoming film “As Good As It Gets,” starring Jack Nicholson. Epstein offered Farmer an unexpected location to do the work in the summer of 1996: an expansive country home in New Albany, Ohio, located amid 336 acres of land owned by Wexner and guarded in part by sheriff’s deputies employed by the longtime chief executive of Victoria’s Secret and The Limited.

It was there, Farmer said in an affidavit she submitted as part of an Epstein-related lawsuit, that she was molested by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. –Washington Post

“They asked me to come into a bedroom with them and then proceeded to sexually assault me against my will,” said Farmer in her affidavit

In the affidavit, she says she “pleaded with” the security staff but was held against her wishes for 12 hours while waiting for her father to arrive. In the interview, she elaborated.

The morning of the day after the alleged assault, she said, Farmer spoke with Maxwell and Epstein. She told them she wanted to leave and hung up. Soon after, a Wexner security guard appeared at the house. “He said, ‘You aren’t leaving,’ ” Farmer recalled, “ ‘You’re not going anywhere.’ ” –Washington Post

Farmer’s mother, father, sister and a friend have all separately stated that they recall a similar account from Maria in 1996. 

As the Post notes, “While Farmer’s allegations against Epstein have been widely documented, her experience in New Albany and the questions it raises about the Wexner family’s relationship with Epstein have been little explored.” 

Stay tuned for updates…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 15:45

Oklahoma Governor Declares State Of Emergency As Fast-Moving Wildfires Scorch The Panhandle

0
Oklahoma Governor Declares State Of Emergency As Fast-Moving Wildfires Scorch The Panhandle

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared a State of Emergency as a massive wildfire spread across the panhandle region of the state and crossed into Kansas.

The Ranger Road Fire has burned 145,000 acres and is one of four wildfires raging in the northwest region of the state. In total, the fires have scorched about 156,000 acres.

Latest from the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture:

  • Ranger Road Fire: 145,000 acres, 0% contained

  • Stevens Fire: 5,500 acres

  • Side Road Fire: 3,300 acres, 25% contained

  • 43 Fire: 2,200 acres, 20% contained

“I’ve declared a State of Emergency in Beaver, Texas, and Woodward counties as wildfires continue to impact parts of Oklahoma,” Stitt wrote on X.

Storm chaser Jaden Pappenheim published a drone video showing a large swath of charred land in the aftermath of the Ranger Road Fire in Beaver County.

More than 5 million people were under red-flag warnings from New Mexico and Texas to Colorado and Kansas earlier today.

Drought and wildfire risks are elevated across the western half of the U.S.

Here are some high-value energy infrastructure assets, including refineries, natural gas hubs, and power plants, that are either near the wildfires or in areas with elevated wildfire risk.

So far, there has been no official word on fire-related damage to Oklahoma’s cattle industry. The state is a top cattle producer, ranked No. 2 nationally, with roughly 4.6 million cattle and calves and nearly 2 million beef cows, making it a very critical part of the U.S. beef supply chain.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 14:30

Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents

0
Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The price movement in the broad S&P 500 index is relatively calm. Yet the market’s undercurrent, as measured by sharply diverging returns across stock sectors and factors, is anything but calm. The current market picture we paint is well embodied by a quote from Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.

“The sea was perfectly calm; scarcely a ripple disturbed its surface. But beneath this tranquil exterior, powerful currents were flowing with irresistible force.”

Given this divergence between the calm market surface and the volatility of its underlying stocks’ returns, let’s get a better grip on the market’s undercurrent and decipher what it may be trying to tell us.

A Calm Market

The graph below shows that the S&P 500’s upward trend has recently flattened into a tight range with minimal volatility. Such consolidation is common after a sharp upward price trend, as the market experienced since early April. 

The next graph shows the average true range (ATR) for the index. ATR is a measure of realized volatility. As we define it, ATR is the percentage difference between the highest and lowest intraday prices over a rolling 20-day period. The current ATR is only about 3%, near the bottom of the range since 2015. It is also less than half the ten-year average.

Both charts point to a relatively calm market with limited volatility. It’s worth noting that implied volatility (expected volatility) on the S&P 500 is around 20. While not low, it doesn’t suggest that investors expect significant volatility in the weeks ahead.

The Markets Undercurrent

While the broad S&P 500 market index is relatively calm, its undercurrent is anything but tranquil. Significant rotation trades, characterized by heavy trading activity in and out of various sectors and factors, have led to large daily divergences in the performance of certain sectors and stock factors.

We use the dispersion of returns to quantify the market’s fierce undercurrent. For this article, we take the 20-day percentage price changes for sector and factor groups and then calculate the standard deviation of those changes. The more divergent the returns, the higher the standard deviation.

The first graph below shows that the current standard deviation of returns across all sectors is at its second-highest level since early 2023.

The following graph uses factors such as growth and value, market cap, and momentum. It also shows that returns among various factors are highly dispersed.

Next, we share a graph, courtesy of Nomura, that delves deeper into the recent dispersion. It compares the average move for all S&P 500 stocks over the last 20 days to that of the S&P 500 index.  As the graph shows, the relative volatility of individual stock returns versus the market is now at levels last seen during the financial crisis and the dotcom crash.  

Cross-Sector Correlation

To further quantify the market’s strong undercurrent, we examine the correlation of returns among the S&P 500 sectors.  The first table shows the correlation between the weekly returns thus far this year. The second table is for 2025.

In 2026, the average correlation among all sectors is a mere 0.066, compared to the statistically significant 0.517 in 2025. Moreover, the standard deviation of the correlations is much greater this year than last year. This, as with the graphs above, further indicates that the various sectors are currently showing a large divergence in weekly returns compared to last year.

We also ran the average correlation from 2019 through 2025, including the tumultuous pandemic sell-off and sharp recovery, and arrived at an average correlation of .68 and a standard deviation of .175.

Our Takeaway

The market’s surface may look calm, but beneath it, passive investors are actively shifting between narratives, valuations, and risk exposures. This reflects changing sentiment among investors about economic growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, and the current political leadership.

Historically, periods of elevated sector dispersion tend to occur during market transitions rather than steadily trending bull or bear markets. However, high dispersion after a long bullish trend is not automatically bearish. It may just represent the market searching for its next regime rather than distress.

Furthermore, as we shared, high sector and factor dispersion is occurring alongside low cross-sector correlations. Typically, correlations between stocks are high during periods of crisis. As the old saying goes, “correlations go to one during a crisis.”

Therefore, if correlations begin to rise and the market heads lower, the recent bout of high dispersion may not be a lasting shift in investor preferences but an omen of a downward trend. 

Summary

Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to the broader index.

While the calm market undercurrent is fierce, it is in and of itself not of great concern. But, as we noted earlier, if we start to see returns among sectors and factors become more aligned, especially downwardly, our concern will heighten.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 14:15

FOMC Minutes Confirm Divided Fed: “Several” Suggest Rate-Hikes Possible, Fear Private Credit “Vulnerabilities”

0
FOMC Minutes Confirm Divided Fed: “Several” Suggest Rate-Hikes Possible, Fear Private Credit “Vulnerabilities”

Since the last FOMC meeting (where they held rates with two dovish dissents) on Jan 28th, Bitcoin has been the biggest underperformer (along with gold) while bonds and the dollar have rallied with stocks lagging

Source: Bloomberg

March is ‘off the table’ for a rate-cut now (following last week’s payrolls beat) but overall 2026 rate-cut expectations are dovishly higher since the last FOMC meeting

Source: Bloomberg

With macro data confirming Powell’s positive narrative (for now)

Source: Bloomberg

With Growth surprising to the upside and inflation drifting lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s Minutes could be more interesting than recent months since The Fed displayed a hawkish tone with Powell talking up a “clear improvement” in the US outlook during the press conference, and said the job market shows signs of steadying.

So here’s what The Fed wanted you to know about the last FOMC Meeting:

A very divided Fed sees more rate-cuts (or hikes) possible and embraces lower inflation (and fears higher inflation)…

Almost all supported maintaining 3.50-3.75%, while a couple preferred a 25bps cut, citing restrictive policy and labor market risks; “some” judged rates should be held steady for some time.

(h/t Newsquawk)

Policy outlook & rate guidance

  • Almost all supported maintaining 3.50-3.75%, while a couple preferred a 25 basis point cut, citing restrictive policy and labor market risks.

  • Several said further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declines as expected.

  • Some judged rates should be held steady for some time pending clearer disinflation evidence.

  • Some said it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time while assessing incoming data.

  • A number judged further easing may not be warranted until clear evidence shows disinflation is firmly back on track.

  • Several favored two-sided guidance, noting upward adjustments could be appropriate if inflation remains above target.

  • Vast majority saw downside employment risks as moderated, while inflation persistence risks remained; some judged risks more balanced.

  • Several warned further easing amid elevated inflation could signal reduced commitment to 2% goal.

  • A few cautioned overly restrictive policy could significantly weaken labor conditions.

Neutral rate & financial conditions

  • Those favoring no change said, after 75 basis points of cuts last year, policy was within estimates of neutral.

  • Most expected growth support from favorable financial conditions, fiscal policy, or regulatory changes.

Inflation views

  • Inflation had eased markedly from 2022 highs but remained somewhat elevated relative to 2%.

  • Elevated readings largely reflected core goods boosted by tariffs; some noted continued disinflation in core services, especially housing.

  • Most cautioned progress toward 2% may be slower and uneven; risk of persistent above-target inflation seen as meaningful.

  • Some cited business contacts planning price increases this year due to cost pressures, including tariffs.

  • Several said sustained demand pressures could keep inflation elevated.

  • Several expected ongoing housing services moderation to exert downward pressure on inflation.

  • Several anticipated higher productivity growth would help restrain inflation.

  • A few reported firms automating to offset costs, reducing need to raise prices or cut margins.

  • Most longer-term inflation expectations remained consistent with 2%; several noted near-term expectations had declined from spring peaks.

Labor market & growth

  • Most said unemployment, layoffs and vacancies suggested stabilization after gradual cooling.

  • Almost all observed layoffs remained low but hiring was also subdued.

  • Several said contacts remained cautious on hiring amid outlook and AI uncertainty.

  • Some cited lower net immigration as contributing to weak job gains.

  • Vast majority judged stabilization signs and diminished downside labor risks.

  • Most nonetheless said downside labor risks remained, including sharp unemployment increases in a low-hiring environment.

  • Some pointed to soft survey measures and part-time for economic reasons as signs of lingering weakness.

  • Activity seen expanding at solid pace; consumer spending resilient, supported by household wealth.

  • Several cited disparity between strong higher-income and soft lower-income consumer spending.

  • Several noted robust business investment, particularly in technology; several judged productivity gains would support growth.

FOMC Minutes explicitly state high valuations, Mag 7 concentration, off-balance sheet funding, K-shaped economy and hedge funds piling into basis trades: 

  • In their discussion of financial stability, several participants commented on high asset valuations and historically low credit spreads.

  • Some participants discussed potential vulnerabilities associated with recent developments in the AI sector, including elevated equity market valuations, high concentration of market values and activities in a small number of firms, and increased debt financing.

  • A few participants commented that the financing of the AI-related infrastructure buildout in opaque private markets warranted monitoring.

  • Several participants highlighted vulnerabilities associated with the private credit sector and its provision of credit to riskier borrowers, including risks related to interconnections with other types of nonbank financial institutions, such as insurance companies, and banks’ exposure to this sector.

  • Several participants commented on risks associated with hedge funds, including their growing footprint in Treasury and equity markets, rising leverage, and continued expansion of relative value trades that could make the Treasury market more vulnerable to shocks.

  • A couple of participants commented that although consumer credit quality remained solid in the aggregate, there were signs of weakness in the financial positions of low- and medium-income households.

  • A few participants noted the need to monitor potential spillovers from volatility in global bond markets and foreign exchange.

Finally, The Fed commented on the yen “rate check” on behalf of the BOJ

“In the days leading up to the meeting, the dollar had depreciated markedly after reports that the Desk had made requests for indicative quotes, known as “rate checks,” on the dollar–yen exchange rate.

The manager noted that the Desk had requested those quotes solely on behalf of the U.S. Treasury in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s role as the fiscal agent for the U.S.

Read the full FOMC Minutes below:

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 14:10

Nestle Weighs Scaling Back Ice Cream Unit As Investors Seek Turnaround Plan From CEO

0
Nestle Weighs Scaling Back Ice Cream Unit As Investors Seek Turnaround Plan From CEO

Update (1405ET)

Nestlé SA reports full-year results on Thursday. Ahead of the release and investor call, CEO Philipp Navratil is expected to outline a turnaround plan, while a new report says the Swiss foodmaker is considering a smaller footprint in its ice cream business.

People familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg:

The Swiss food giant has been studying possibilities including cutting its stake in Froneri, an ice cream joint venture with private equity firm PAI Partners which includes brands like Häagen-Dazs and Mövenpick, according to the people. It could also consider selling some of its remaining fully owned ice cream operations to the Froneri venture, one of the people said.

Deliberations are ongoing and there’s no certainty a deal will eventually materialize. PAI could opt to increase its stake in Froneri if Nestlé decides to cut its holding, or the Swiss group could sell part of its Froneri stake to another investor like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, according to some of the people.

Shares of Nestlé are trading at 2018-2019 levels as the food giant grapples with the fallout from the infant formula crisis.

Analysts will focus on Navratil’s turnaround plan, expected to be unveiled tomorrow, with hopes that it will provide enough confidence for investors to lift shares from depressed levels.”

*   *   *  

Nestlé SA CEO Philipp Navratil is feeling the heat after the world’s largest food company recently carried out the biggest recall in its history, pulling infant formula off supermarket shelves after a contaminated ingredient was discovered in late 2025. Shares have taken a beating, and scrutiny of the recall is intensifying, with prosecutors in Europe opening an investigation.

Navratil and his management team are expected to present a turnaround plan for the Swiss foodmaker on Thursday, following the December recall of its infant formulas. Multiple production sites were found to have cereulide, a toxin that can cause nausea and vomiting.

French authorities have received complaints from eight consumers who say their children vomited after consuming Nestlé baby formula, prompting Paris prosecutors to open investigations. In the UK, there have also been 36 reports of suspected food poisoning linked to baby formula consumption.

BBC News provided more color to those investigations:

Prosecutors in Paris will seek to establish whether the baby formula producers are liable for distributing a tainted product. It will be co-ordinated with local probes into whether there was a causal link between the contaminated formula and the deaths of three babies in France. Nestlé and France’s health ministry have stressed there was as-yet no evidence to indicate such a link.

In Switzerland, the food giant’s shares are little changed year to date, with uncertainty surrounding the baby formula debacle still hanging over sentiment. Zooming out, the stock has retraced to 2018-19 levels.

Vontobel analyst Jean-Philippe Bertschy told clients, “The pressure is enormous … and full-year results have become almost anecdotal, as investors are now squarely focused on the robustness of quality controls in the infant nutrition case and on the strategic update pledged by the new management team.”

Investors’ attention now shifts to Thursday, when the Swiss giant reports full-year results and is expected to unveil its turnaround plan.

Bloomberg noted, “Thursday’s strategy update may include a reorganization to streamline businesses. Navratil has signaled that he wants to focus on four core divisions — pet care, coffee, nutrition and health, and food and snacking — while centralizing functions such as marketing, an area the company did not invest enough in during years of short-term margin expansion.”

Vontobel’s Bertschy said, “It will be crucial that we receive an update on some of the under-performing units, how they want to reduce the net debt level and how they plan to accelerate the free cash flow. The market will look for a precise roadmap rather than another broad reassurance – a plan that is clearly underpinned by concrete actions, milestones and measurable commitments.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/18/2026 – 14:05