Following the declines in new- and existing-home sales, analysts (unsurprisingly) expected to see pending home sales drop for the 10th month of the last 11. They were right BUT the magnitude was remarkable.

Pending Home Sales plunged 10.3% MoMin September (way worse than the -4.0% expected), pushing the year-over-year plunge to 30.4% – its weakest since the trough of the COVID lockdown crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

That dropped the pending home sales index to its lowest since 2010 (ex the trough of the COVID lockdowns crisis)…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you think it’s over, mortgage rates say no…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this where home sales will go before Powell is done?

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

It’s the moment we all knew was coming. Well, most of us, at least. 

A Senate Committee on Health Education, Labor and Pensions interim report from October 27, 2022 titled “An Analysis of the Origins of the COVID19 Pandemic” has revealed that the origins of Covid were more likely based in a lab as part of a “research related incident” and not zoonotic.

The report was the result of a “bipartisan Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee oversight effort into the origins of SARS-CoV-2”. It provides a lengthy analysis that reviews “publicly available, open-source information to examine the two prevailing theories of origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus”.

Among other conclusions, the report notes: “Substantial evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of a research-related incident associated with a laboratory in Wuhan, China,” the report states.

“A research-related incident is consistent with the early epidemiology showing rapid spread of the virus exclusively in Wuhan with the earliest calls for assistance being located in the same district as the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s (WIV) original campus in central Wuhan. The WIV is an epicenter of advanced coronavirus research, where researchers have collected samples of and experimented on high-risk coronaviruses.”

“While precedent of previous outbreaks of human infections from contact with animals favors the hypothesis that a natural zoonotic spillover is responsible for the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident.”

In other words, all of us “conspiracy theorists” floating the idea of a lab leak just because of the totally coincidental fact that the virus showed up on a virology lab’s doorstep, have now been validated by the U.S. Senate.

In a section titled “Problems with the Natural Zoonotic Hypothesis”, the report says:

“Based on precedent and genomics, the most likely scenario for a zoonotic origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is that SARS-CoV-2 crossed over the species barrier from an intermediate host to humans. However, the available evidence is also consistent, perhaps more so, with a direct bat-to-human spillover. Both scenarios remain plausible and, in the absence of additional information, should be considered equally valid hypotheses.”

“However, nearly three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, critical evidence that would prove that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 pandemic was caused by a natural zoonotic spillover is missing.”

“Such gaps include the failure to identify the original host reservoir, the failure to identify a candidate intermediate host species, and the lack of serological or epidemiological evidence showing transmission from animals to humans, among others outlined in this report,” the report states.

“As a result of these evidentiary gaps, it is hard to treat the natural zoonotic spillover theory as the presumptive origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Then, in the report’s conclusion, it states:

“Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. New information, made publicly available and independently verifiable, could change this assessment. However, the hypothesis of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or the presumption of accuracy.”

The report was signed off on by Richard Burr, United States Senator and Ranking Member, U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.

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Regarding the report’s research process, Burr wrote:

“Over the last fifteen months, HELP Committee Minority oversight staff carefully reviewed several hundred publicly available scientific studies, interviewed several dozen subject matter experts, and analyzed previous reports and studies on the possible origins of the virus. I believe that this report provides a significant contribution to the existing body of evidence and helps establish parameters for how future analyses should be reviewed.”

And for the icing on the cake, just weeks ago Taiwan also concluded that the virus likely did not come from the Wuhan wet markets. The country’s Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said in late September, in a revelation that went mostly unnoticed by the mainstream media, that “it does not believe the wet market to be the source of the COVID pandemic and suggested that a leak from a laboratory in Wuhan is a possibility.”

“Our speculation is we think the Wuhan Huanan wet market is not the origin. [The market is] probably just a very important step in the transmission chain. The origin is somewhere else,” said Philip Lo, deputy head of the CECC’s medical response division, Taiwan News reported.

“Maybe it’s still in Wuhan, for example, the laboratory…we don’t have proof, solid evidence,” Lo continued.

This news should come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading Fringe Finance. Back in early September I published the thoughts of Harvard PhD and Rutgers professor Dr. Richard Ebright, who said Covid was “much more easily explained” by a lab leak: Covid “Much More Easily Explained” By Lab Leak: Harvard PhD & Rutgers Chem Professor

Upon reviewing the thread laid out by Ebright, Justin B. Kinney, an Associate Professor at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and Princeton PhD commented that the thread was “much more compelling” than the evidence recently published by Worobey et al. and Pekar et al. in Science,” referring to a July 2022 study that concluded the virus came from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (and was riddled, in my opinion, with conflicts of interest and ties to the CDC and WHO).

“This evidence is not dispositive, but were the lab leak hypothesis incorrect, it would represent a staggering set of coincidences,” Kinney wrote back in September.

Unforunately, these findings have not prevented Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance from receiving more funding, which it has this year to the tune of at least $2 million. 

You can read the new Senate report for yourself here.

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Andreessen Horowitz’s timing in investing in the crypto world arguably couldn’t have been worse.

The firm, widely known as a major crypto bull, was the topic of a new Wall Street Journal piece this week examining just how poor its timing was before going “all in” on the blockchain and cryptocurrency boom. 

As the Journal notes, crypto prices have been thrashed this year and Andreessen’s flagship crypto fund was down about 40% in the first half of the year, marking a decline that was “much larger” than other venture funds invested in crypto. 

As a result the firm has “dramatically slowed the pace of its crypto investments this year”, the report says. And now, the question is being raised as to whether or not the firm even has the option of “buying the dip”.

Ben Narasin, a general partner at the VC firm Tenacity Venture Capital, told WSJ: “They’ve just pushed it so far with crypto that I’m not sure they can rebalance.” 

The firm’s main crypto advocate, partner Chris Dixon, who joined in 2012, said he “remains faithful” in the industry, stating that crypto “is about the political and governing structure of the internet” before adding: “We have a very long-term horizon.”

Dixon championed bitcoin well before it was adopted in its current form, the report says. Andreessen Horowitz was an early investor in Coinbase because of Dixon’s enthusiasm for the space, the piece notes. When ethereum was launched in 2015, he decided he wanted to run his own crypto-based fund.

In 2018, the firm launched a $350 million fund and raised a second fund worth $515 million in 2020. By the end of 2021, “the first crypto fund had multiplied its initial investment by 10.6 times after fees”, the Journal wrote. Andreessen then returned over $4 billion in shares to investors after Coinbase went public in April 2021. It solidified Coinbase as “one of the most-lucrative bets ever made in venture-capital history”. 

The firm then raised $2.2 billion in June 2021 to raise a third crypto fund, but months later the market turned against them, with demand for many of the company they invested in being “vaporized”. The Journal wrote:

OpenSea’s monthly trading volume has plummeted since its December funding round in the midst of a broader collapse in the market for NFTs, while Coinbase’s monthly active users declined 20% in the second quarter from last year’s fourth-quarter peak of 11.2 million. Both companies have cut around one-fifth of their staff this year.

Solana, an upstart cryptocurrency that the firm bought in June 2021, has shed over 80% of its value since the beginning of the year. In the first six months of this year, Andreessen lost $2.9 billion of its remaining stake in Coinbase as the crypto exchange’s stock price cratered by more than 80%.

But despite the plunge, Dixon is sticking by his strategy. He lamented: “What I look at is not prices. I look at the entrepreneur and developer activity. That’s the core metric.”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin has issued a statement saying ongoing military aid to Ukraine is essential because Russia is mean to gay and transgender people.

Yes, really.

Raskin released the statement after 30 “progressive” Democrats watered down their call for peace talks in a letter to Joe Biden.

Raskin (D-MD) is apparently concerned that any slide in support for Ukraine represents an abandonment of woke values

“Moscow right now is … a world center of antifeminist, antigay, anti-trans hatred, as well as the homeland of replacement theory for export,” said the statement.

Calling Vladimir Putin an “imperialist” and a “colonizer,” Raskin went on to demonize the entire country.

“Moscow right now is a hub of corrupt tyranny, censorship, authoritarian repression, police violence, propaganda, government lies and disinformation, and planning for war crimes…

In supporting Ukraine, we are opposing these fascist views, and supporting the urgent principles of democratic pluralism. Ukraine is not perfect, of course, but its society is organized on the radically different principles of democracy and freedom,” the statement said.

As we have previously highlighted, the bizarre intersection of sending advanced weaponry to foreign conflicts in the name of defending far-left identity politics reared its head right at the start of the war.

Back in February, the head of MI6, who includes his preferred pronouns in his Twitter bio, faced backlash for suggesting that a large part of the war in Ukraine was about “LGBT+ rights.”

“With the tragedy and destruction unfolding so distressingly in Ukraine, we should remember the values and hard won freedoms that distinguish us from Putin, none more than LGBT+ rights. So let’s resume our series of tweets to mark #LGBTHM2022,” tweeted Richard Moore (he/him).

One of the principal organizers of Dublin’s gay pride parade also decided to add the colors of Ukraine to the LGBTQ rainbow flag, presumably to ensure support for all ‘current things’ were covered.

*  *  *

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The global semiconductor shortage appears to have officially “bullwhipped” its way the other direction and, as such, as become a glut. Yes, you read that right, there is now reportedly a glut of semiconductors at top manufacturers, according to a new report by Caixin. 

Names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) and Nvidia are now dealing with “unsold stockpiles” of inventory as a result of shrinking demand and cancelled orders, the report says.

This means that the years-long hold up for chips looks like it has officially come to an end. 

Xie Ruifeng from semiconductor industry market research institute ICwise told Caixin: “This round of business sentiment is reversing so fast that chip designers were struggling to find production capacity only last year, but now they find chips won’t sell.” 

Meanwhile, smartphone and PC demand is shrinking, with global 5G smartphone shipments expected to fall by 150 million units in 2022, the report says. Demand for 5G chips will also plunge by 100 million units, to 120 million units, the report says.

Caixin noted that TSMC is facing significantly reduced orders:

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, faces reduced orders from four of its largest customers, reflecting slowing global demand. JPMorgan Chase said in a report in early September that AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm and MediaTek slashed chip orders with TSMC.

And names like AMD and Intel are also suffering the demand slowdown:

Other semiconductor companies are also facing tough conditions. AMD lowered its revenue forecast for the third quarter, citing significant weakening in the PC market. Intel, Nvidia and Micron Technology all issued subdued outlooks.

In the first half of 2022, macroeconomic headwinds and a number of “black swan” factors combined to cause consumer electronics demand to plummet, with smartphones and PCs bearing the brunt. Micron predicted that global PC shipments will decline by 10 per cent to 20 per cent in 2022, while the global smartphone market will decline by less than 10 per cent.

And manufacturers are dealing with “six months of stockpiles” that they built up as a result of 2021’s shortage…and once-optimistic demand forecasts. That was, of course, at a time when free money was being handed out to “combat” the pandemic. Now, with tighter monetary policy globally, it should be no surprise that demand is falling off. 

Mr Sravan Kundojjala, associate director of smartphone component technology services at Strategy Analytics confirmed that current supplies kept in inventory by companies could last until mid-2023 at current demand levels. 

Still, it appears that all of the massive new infrastructure projects being taken on by companies like Intel and TSMC as a result of last years’ shortage are going to forge forward. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) co-chief executive Zhao Haijun told Caixin: “We will not change our plans for long-term capacity expansion and development.”

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

…but Macron is still pushing for more mass immigration despite data showing the tremendous crime rate of foreign nationals

French President Emmanuel Macron admits that half the crimes committed in Paris are the work of foreigners during an interview yesterday on the France 2 television channel.

“Yes, when we look at delinquency in Paris, we can see that half of the delinquent acts come from foreigners in an irregular situation or awaiting asylum approval,” said Macron.

However, Macron also said that despite the issue with immigration and insecurity, he sees no “existential” link between the two.

“I will never make an existential link between immigration and insecurity,” said Macron just 10 days after the murder of 12-year-old Lola, who was raped, had her throat slashed, and was stuffed in a suitcase by an Algerian migrant who was in the country illegally.

Macron is under severe pressure after the murder, with a number of leading opposition politicians laying the blame for the murder at his feet and pointing to his abysmal record on deportations. Macron previously promised in 2020 that he was aiming for a 100 percent deportation rate. That rate currently hovers under 6 percent, and in the case of Algerians, it is 0.2 percent.

Despite growing anger, Macron is pushing a plan to send more migrants to the countryside, a move that is overwhelming rejected by the French public there. He also said in February of this year that migration from Africa and the Middle East “can make France greater.”

On top of inflation and growing unrest, the issue of immigration is turning political opinion against the French leader. As in the past, such as following the beheading of French history teacher Samuel Paty by a Chechen Islamist teen, Macron has put forward a number of “reforms” to assuage public anger, but many of the proposals were never enforced or have done little to disrupt France’s issues with insecurity, including a 91 percent increase in murders since 2000.

This time around, Macron claims he wants “in-depth reform” and a “debate in parliament on immigration.”

“We must reform our laws in depth to be able to better welcome those we want to welcome,” he said during the Europe 2 interview. He offered little in terms of how he plans to address problems with integration and the country’s inability to deport cirminal migrants.

However, Macron’s admission that illegal migrants or migrants awaiting asylum are responsible for half the crime in Paris is supported by data. The recently retired Paris chief of police, Didier Lallement, made assertions just this month, writing in his new book that “one out of every two crimes is committed by a foreigner, who are often in the country illegally… It is clear that some of the newcomers are integrating through delinquency.”

It is also unclear what the racial and ethnic breakdown of crime statistics is in France, as there are many French citizens of “foreign origin” who are not counted as foreigners since they have obtained citizenship. France does not keep data on the ethnic or racial identity of suspects. However, in other cities, such as Marseilles, 55 percent of all crimes are committed by foreigners, a rate even higher than Paris, illustrating that it is a countrywide issue.

On the same day that Russia hailed completion of its ‘successful’ annual nuclear drills, Politico published a bombshell report describing that the US has accelerated plans to maintain upgraded nuclear weapons in Europe. 

Specifically, US defense officials informed NATO allies earlier this month that Europe will host a B61-12 air-dropped gravity bomb, to be transferred by December. Politico reported Wednesday that a classified cable it has seen confirmed this. 

The upgraded bomb was expected to arrive in Europe next spring, but the timeline was accelerated amid Russia’s growing nuclear rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine. President Biden recently raised eyebrows in saying nuclear “armageddon” is a real possibility for the first time since the close of the Cold War. 

On an official level the Pentagon is disputing that its planned nuclear upgrade for NATO’s Europe arsenal is in any way connected to events in Ukraine, however, Politico cites the following sources: 

Two people familiar with the issue of the upcoming shipment to Europe confirmed the accelerated timeframe reported in the diplomatic cable. They asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

The cable, which has not previously been made public and was written to be distributed throughout the Pentagon and State Department to give policymakers a rundown of what was discussed among defense ministers at the NATO meeting, clearly indicates that allies are jittery.

The document says that during the meetings, 15 NATO allies raised concerns that the alliance “must not give in to Putin’s nuclear blackmail.”

2018 test drop: F-15E Strike Eagle jet dropping the first inert B61-3/4 tactical nuclear bomb (Source: Sandia National Labs/YouTube)

The cable is further quoted by Politico as follows: “Given the rising volume and scale of Russia’s nuclear rhetoric, a subset of allies requested continued consultations at NATO to ensure continued readiness and consistent messaging.”

Some analysts cited in the report say the White House is fundamentally sending a message of reassurance to NATO at a moment European countries are feeling “vulnerable”, and that the intent is not to escalate nuclear tensions with Moscow: 

“My guess is it is aimed more towards NATO than Russia,” said Tom Collina, director of policy at the Ploughshares Fund, a disarmament group. “There are [older] B61s already there. The Russians know that. They work just fine. The new ones will be newer, but it’s not really that much of a difference. But it may be a way to assure the allies when they are feeling particularly threatened by Russia.”

The upgraded B61-12 is designed to allow the bomb to be carried by a fuller array of US and allied bombers and fighter jets, while older versions had more limited delivery options. The upgraded version is also said to be more accurate. 

The B61 nuclear gravity bomb is deployed at a number of US Air Force and NATO military bases and has almost five decades of service, making it the oldest bomb in the US stockpile. Numerous programs have modified the B61 for safety, security, and reliability since it entered service in the late 1960s, including four B61 variants.

The upgraded B61-12 LEP – a project years in the making, will replace all of the bomb’s nuclear and non‐nuclear components for another two decades, and improve the bomb’s safety, effectiveness, and security. This life extension program will address all age-related issues of the weapon, and enhance its reliability, field maintenance, safety, and use control.

Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under growing pressure as both opposition and Conservative MPs question his decision to reappoint Suella Braverman as home secretary just six days after she was forced to resign by Liz Truss over a security breach.

Braverman resigned as UK home secretary on Oct. 19 after she was caught sending a backbench Conservative MP a sensitive document from a personal email account, breaching the ministerial code.

But hours after Sunak replaced Truss as prime minister on Oct. 25, he reappointed her as home secretary.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak waves to members of the media after taking office outside Number 10 in Downing Street, London, on Oct. 25, 2022. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused Sunak of doing “a grubby deal trading national security” in order to buy her support in the Tory leadership election.

Labour’s shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper wrote to Cabinet Secretary Simon Case demanding an investigation “into the extent of this and other possible security breaches.”

The Liberal Democrats also demanded an inquiry into Sunak’s decision to reappoint her “including any promises Sunak made to her behind closed doors.”

Tory Disquiet

Conservative Party chairman Nadhim Zahawi defended Braverman’s reappointment, saying she deserves a “second chance.”

“She fell on her sword, she didn’t try to ride it out and try to hang on to her job,” he told the BBC.

“This prime minister looked at the details of this case and he believes in second chances and he’s giving Suella Braverman a second chance,” he said.

But a number of Conservative MPs have also raised concerns.

Caroline Nokes, who chairs the Women and Equalities Committee in the House of Commons, told the BBC there are “big questions hanging over this whole issue” and said she would back opposition calls for a full inquiry into the reappointment.

Former Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry told TalkTV that Braverman committed “multiple breaches of the ministerial code.”

While Braverman said she “rapidly reported” her “mistake” through official channels as soon as she realised it—a claim repeated by Sunak in Parliament during Prime Minister’s Questions on Oct. 26—Berry said she only admitted wrongdoing after evidence was put to her.

Trust ‘Breakdown’

Allegations that Braverman had earlier been investigated by government officials after the leaking of a story involving the security services have added to the concerns.

According to a report in The Mail, when Braverman was attorney-general, she was investigated by a unit within the Cabinet Office over a leak about the government’s plan to seek an injunction preventing the BBC from identifying an intelligence officer accused of terrorising his ex-partner.

The newspaper said no “conclusive evidence” was found about the identity of the leaker, but it said MI5 played a role in the inquiry after the leak sparked “concern” in the security services.

Mark Pritchard, who used to sit on Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee, said a “breakdown” in trust between MI5 and Braverman must be “sorted ASAP.”

Pritchard wrote on Twitter: “MI5 need to have confidence in the home secretary—whoever that might be.

“It’s a vital relationship of trust, key to the UK’s security and democratic oversight of MI5. Any breakdown in that relationship is bad for the security service and the government. It needs to be sorted ASAP.”

Reacting to the report, Downing Street insisted that Braverman maintains “strong relationships” with security services.

On Wednesday Israel launched yet another missile attack on Damascus, which notably marks the third one against Damascus since Friday. Significantly Friday’s attack had been the first major strike in a month – though prior to this the aerial assaults had come semi-regularly.

“Four people collaborating with Hezbollah, including one Syrian fighter, were killed in an attack attributed to Israel on Damascus’ outskirts on Wednesday overnight, in the third such strike in less than a week, according to a human rights group in Syria,” Haaretz reports. However the Syrian government didn’t confirm any casualties. 

Despite the prior lull in such brazen attacks from Israeli forces, it seem clear they are now re-escalating again, but no specific reason from Israel has been provided. 

“At around 00:30 AM (21:30 GMT), the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression from the direction of the occupied Palestinian territories targeting several positions in the vicinity of Damascus,” Syria’s defense ministry said in a statement.

Similar strikes had been launched Friday and Monday, with Monday’s being a rare daytime attack that wounded a Syrian soldier. 

Damascus says of the Wednesday aggression that anti-air defenses were deployed and “confronted the missile aggression and downed most of them.”

Of broader geopolitical importance, which might provide context to the stepped-up attacks, is Ukraine’s essentially begging Israel to transfer its Iron Dome defense system and “close the skies” – as President Zelensky said this week.

🚨🚨🚨
Huge explosions heard in Damascus after Israeli airstrikes. Damascenes on social media platforms say they were panicked by the sounds of the bombs. pic.twitter.com/gSjXwgoOgv

— Kevork Almassian🇸🇾🇦🇲 (@KevorkAlmassian) October 26, 2022

Zelensky in a rare display of boldness actually told a defense conference that Israel is turning “a blind eye to Russian terror”. He went so far as to say that refusing to help Kiev with anti-air systems is actually enabling an emboldened Iran as well, given the presence of Iranian suicide drones on the Ukraine battlefield. Israel has this week shut the door on Zelensky’s requests.

Israel might now be demonstrating that it remains as willing as ever to go after Iranian assets – inside Syria – which is also at the consternation of Russia, though its become clear that Moscow has been willing to look the other way while issuing vague condemnations. 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

NATO nuclear weapons could potentially be placed on Russia’s border with Finland if Helsinki joins the Western military alliance, Newsweek reported on Wednesday, citing a Finnish newspaper.

The newspaper Iltalehti reported that the bill the Finnish government will put before the country’s parliament on joining NATO doesn’t include any opt-outs for hosting nuclear weapons.

Finnish military sources told the paper that Finland’s foreign minister and defense minister committed to NATO back in July that they wouldn’t seek “restrictions or national reservations” if their application to join the alliance is accepted. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said earlier this month that Finland had “no preconditions” for joining NATO.

While Finland may be willing to host nuclear weapons, it’s unlikely they would be placed in the country after it joins NATO, at least in the near future. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has previously said the alliance has expressed no interest in placing nuclear warheads in Finland.

Currently, the alliance keeps no nuclear warheads in countries that joined NATO after the end of the Cold War, although Poland recently said it’s had discussions with the US on hosting the weapons.

Placing nuclear weapons in Finland, which shares an over 800-mile border with Russia, would be a major provocation toward Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he doesn’t view Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a threat but said he will respond to the expansion of NATO military infrastructure in the region.

Finland and Sweden’s NATO memberships have been ratified by 28 out of 30 alliance members, with only Hungary and Turkey to go.

Turkey has threatened to block the Nordic nations from joining if they don’t live up to sign a memorandum signed back in June, but Ankara’s issues seem to be mainly with Sweden, and the new Swedish government has said it’s ready to fulfill the deal.