Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

A technical sell signal for the Nasdaq has hit levels not seen since the tech bubble.

However, it should be taken in the context of a still supportive economic backdrop, with buoyant excess liquidity and low near-term recession risk.

The Hindenburg Omen compares the percentage of stocks in a stock index making new 52-week lows versus 52-week highs.

When both are rising above a certain threshold, and we are near a one-year high in the index, the signal activates.

For the Nasdaq, more omens have triggered so far this year than in any calendar year since the 2000 tech-driven top.

As the chart shows, previous rises in the number of omens have coincided with the Nasdaq selling off or moving sideways.

But before traders hit the sell button, there are some caveats to take into account.

• First of all, it’s obviously unwise to base an investment strategy around one signal, especially one with such a small sample size. Indeed, there has been one instance where the annual number of omens exceeds today’s value, in the mid 1990s, but this happened in the midst of that decade’s potent bull rally.

• Secondly, there are currently no omens for the NYSE. Stock markets within a country tend to move similarly, and the Nasdaq does not stand out as being more overbought than e.g. the NYSE index (the NYA).

• Thirdly, the US economy is doing OK and near-term recession risk is low. Furthermore, excess liquidity continues to be supportive for risk assets.

Still, it would be remiss to ignore the notable short-term risks in equities, which the Hindenburg Omens are potentially drawing attention to.

Hedged portfolios, taking advantage of still relatively cheap hedges (e.g. a 10% OTM put on the Nasdaq 100 expiring in December is ~2.6%), are better placed to weather short-term attendant risks.

On Wednesday Russian missiles slammed into the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, killing at least 17 people and wounding scores more, according to local officials. The attack came during a busy time of the day in a downtown district.

President Volodymyr Zelensky in the wake of the deadly strikes, which involved at least three missiles hitting targets, lashed out at the West for failing to provide more vital anti-air defenses and missiles. “This would not have happened if Ukraine had received enough air defense equipment and if the world’s determination to counter Russian terror was also sufficient,” he stated.

The wording of the statement strongly suggested his view that allies’ determination is not sufficient, despite tens of billions already spent by the West. “Terrorists can destroy lives only when they first manage to intimidate those who are able to stop terror and protect life,” he added.

Later in the day, Ukraine emergency authorities reported that over 60 civilians were injured in the attack, in addition to the at least 17 dead – a casualty toll which could rise.

In prior statements published Tuesday, Zelensky commented on last week’s Russian attack which destroyed the largest power-generating plant in the Kyiv region. He described that his military had run out of missiles to mount an adequate defense.

“There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and four (remaining) destroyed Trypillia. Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypillia,” he told PBS.

He and his top officials have of late accused the West of turning a “blind eye” at a moment they are simultaneously focusing on Israel’s defense against Iran. Reuters has said there remains the possibility that at this rate Ukraine could run out of effective anti-air measures altogether:

Reuters was not able to independently verify the account. Zelenskiy has earlier warned that Ukraine has already had to make tough choices about what to protect and said his country could run out of defensive missiles entirely if Russian attacks continued apace.

Destroyed in 11 March strike, Trypilska thermal power plant was the biggest energy facility near Kyiv and was built to have a capacity of 1,800 megawatts, more than the pre-war needs of Ukraine’s biggest city. Other stations and imports have filled the gap for now but residents have been urged to save power.

Ukraine has further in observation of the weekend Iran attack on Israel asked why the US won’t also intercept inbound missiles over Ukraine like it did for Israel.

This has become a talking point also picked up by some European allies. NBC reports:

The United States and its partners helped Israel, so why — Ukraine is asking — won’t they help protect us from Russian attacks?

It “looks extremely strange,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told NBC News in an interview on Tuesday.

“How does the civilian population of Ukraine or the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine differ from the civilian population of Israel from a humanistic point of view?” he asked bluntly.

Zelensky wants to know why Israel, a non NATO member, enjoyed unbridled support for their skies, unlike Ukraine pic.twitter.com/TklHXrmUm9

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 15, 2024

Zelensky himself in a Monday night address described, “European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles.”

“We can now see how unity can work,” Zelensky added, while also expressing frustration that the West rushed to directly intervene in Israel’s defense but not Ukraine’s. This big difference of course is that Russia is a known nuclear power, and much more formidable, while Iran is not.

Authored by Lisa Schiffren via The College Fix,

A tenured professor is suspended throughout the rest of the semester after writing an essay celebrating Hamas’ attack on Israel.

“McCarthyism is real. I’ve been relieved of teaching responsibilities,” Hobart and William Smith Colleges Professor Jodi Dean wrote Saturday on X. “Don’t stop talking about Palestine.”

“The images from October 7 of paragliders evading Israeli air defenses were for many of us exhilarating,” the New York political scientist wrote the week prior in a blog post for Verso Books.

She wrote further:

Here were moments of freedom, that defeated Zionist expectations of submission to occupation and siege. In them, we witnessed seemingly impossible acts of bravery and defiance in the face of the certain knowledge of the devastation that would follow (that Israel practices asymmetric warfare and responds with disproportionate force is no secret).

Who could not feel energized seeing oppressed people bulldozing the fences enclosing them, taking to the skies in escape, and flying freely through the air?

Mark Gearan, the president of HWS Colleges, wrote, in a letter to the college community, “I deeply regret that as a result of Professor Dean’s comments, there now may be students on our campus who feel threatened in or outside the classroom.” 

 “Not only am I in complete disagreement with Professor Dean, I find her comments repugnant, condemn them unequivocally, and want to make clear that these are her personal views and not those of our institution. One of my priorities as president is to build an intellectually vibrant and relationship-rich campus community,” President Gearan wrote.

“The Colleges recognize and affirm the importance of free dialogue on ideas,” he wrote.

“We have worked tirelessly to create an environment where we can discuss hard issues upon which we may disagree. But we can never and will never condone or praise violence, particularly when that violence is directed at individuals based on their religion, race or national origin.”

The Chronicle of Higher Education reported that a follow up message from the provost, Sarah Kirk, explained that “the colleges are obligated under Title VI, a federal antidiscrimination law, to investigate potential ‘hostile environments’ involving national origin, shared ancestry, or other protected classes.’” 

Some defended the professor’s right to speak freely, even if disagreeing with her views, according to The Chronicle.

Princeton University Professor Robert George “said that while he found the views Dean expressed in her article appalling, the colleges’ response seemed to conflict with their own endorsement of the American Association of University Professors’ principles on academic freedom, which are included in the faculty handbook.”

“None of the unprotected categories of speech are relevant here,” the conservative professor said. “Jodi Dean did not threaten anybody. She did not harass anybody. She did not engage in defamation or accuse somebody of a crime falsely.” 

However, Cornell University law Professor William Jacobson had different views.

“You endorse the academic boycott of Israel depriving Israelis and American students and scholars who want to study in or with Israelis of their academic freedom,” Jacobson wrote on X, responding to a post from Professor Dean. “You’re not just a ghoulish depraved communist supporter of Islamist terrorism, you’re an academic freedom fraud.”

You endorse the academic boycott of Israel depriving Israelis and American students and scholars who want to study in or with Israelis of their academic freedom. You’re not just a ghoulish depraved communist supporter of Islamist terrorism, you’re an academic freedom fraud.…

— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) April 14, 2024

The news outlet also reported Dean will continue to be paid.

She also “has access to her office, and can continue to do research. [The spokesperson] rejected any suggestion that Dean’s academic freedom had been violated, and added that the professor had made comments similar to the controversial essay at a campus lecture on March 28.”

Update (1216ET):

Alaska Air resumed departures around noon after an hour-long ground stop for all departure flights nationwide.

The Wall Street Journal says the ground stop was due to a “technology problem that cropped up during a system upgrade.”

Even though the ground stop has been lifted, Alaska Air passengers can expect delays throughout the afternoon.

*   *   * 

Update (1120ET):

Phil LeBeau reports on CNBC television that an earlier malfunction of Alaska Airlines’ IT system, which calculates planes’ weight and balance, triggered a nationwide ground stop.

For all those pilots out there, weight and balance are critical before running up the pre-flight checklist. 

*   *   * 

Shares of Alaska Airlines are tumbling in New York after the Federal Aviation Administration’s Air Traffic Control System Command Center says all of the carrier’s mainline and subcarrier flights (excluding SkyWest Airlines) are placed on a “ground stop.”

• FAA: ALL ALASKA MAINLINE AND SUBCARRIER FLIGHTS GROUND STOPPED (SKYWEST EXCLUDED)

Here’s the advisory from the FAA: 

Alaska Airlines shares tumbled on the news. Still up on the session. 

The FAA did not explain the reasoning behind the ground stop. 

*This is a developing story. 

For much of the past year, we had joked that behind the facade of western Democratic ideals, was a cold hard truth: the price of oil must not be allowed to go up in an election year. This was obvious in Biden’s “kid gloves” treatment of Iran’s regime, it was obvious when the US implemented “sanctions” on Russian oil that were breached within months with zero enforcement, it was also obvious when the US president became best friends with Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro last October when, in exchange for a few thousands barrels of Venezuela’s oil, the US lifted sanctions on the person that for years was one of western “democracies” biggest enemies.

Biden Lifts Sanctions On Venezuela Dictator Maduro In Exchange For Oil https://t.co/3VH2WoumCu

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 19, 2023

Of course, there had to be some at least optical quid-pro-quo in exchange for the Biden detente so that the US president doesn’t look not just senile but also totally stupid and incompetent, and sure enough Maduro agreed that he will hold “free elections” only to renege a few weeks later, while also rubbing Biden’s face in Maduro’s sudden leverage over the US president as we reported on various occasions:

Biden courts Maduro to get a few hundred thousands barrels of oil so his record low approval doesn’t drop even more, and now an emboldened Maduro is preparing to annex most of the sovereign state of Guayana https://t.co/75USHVR9WT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2023

*VENEZUELA’S MADURO SAYS HE PLANS A VISIT TO RUSSIA SOON

Just rubbing it in Biden’s face now

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2024

*VENEZUELA HAS NAMES OF CIA AGENTS WHO ARE CONSPIRING: CONGRESS PRESIDENT JORGE RODRIGUEZ

Biden’s outreach to his new BFF Maduro is working out just great

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 25, 2024

*VENEZUELA TO SUSPEND REPATRIATION FLIGHTS IF SANCTIONS INCREASE

Maduro now giving conditions to Biden

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2024

And so, nearly half a year later after Biden’s shocking detente with Venezuela’s strongman, and having become the butt of all jokes, Bloomberg reports that Joe Biden’s administration intends to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela, ending a six-month reprieve, if Nicolas Maduro’s regime does not take steps in the next two days to honor an agreement to allow a fairer vote in elections scheduled for July.

The US plans to allow a Treasury Department license permitting oil and gas production to expire without renewal on Thursday, according to people familiar with the plan, who asked not to be identified without permission to speak publicly, if Venezuela fails to act.

The report goes on to note that the Biden administration has been trying to buy as much time as possible before finalizing the decision in hopes for an unlikely breakthrough that could change its plan, although that has clearly not happened.

Reimposing sanctions would end a brief respite that had foreign oil executives flocking to the South American nation. Renewed sanctions would set back Maduro’s efforts to restart Venezuela’s economy, which requires significant foreign investment to rebuild the country’s decaying oil infrastructure. Sanctioning the nation’s limited production will bear little immediate impact on the global oil market. But over the medium- to long-term, the lack of investment from Chevron Corp. and other outside investors could ultimately see Venezuela’s oil output decline.

Cracking down on the oil flowing from the country also threatens to drive rising US gasoline prices even higher. That poses a threat to Biden, who has struggled to calm voter anxiety over persistently high inflation in the US in an election in which the state of the economy is taking center stage.

But why now? Why would Biden’s handlers lose so much foreign policy credibility over the past 6 months, just to U-turn now and go back to square one?  Well, as Bloomberg notes, if the license expires, “US actions would be taken to ease the impact on Americans and the US oil market.”

Actions like what? Well, the same actions Pizza afficionado and White House senior adviser John Podesta said yesterday were on the docket unless oil prices drop, namely draining even more SPR oil.

“The president did it (release oil from SPR) before … and I think he wants to keep the price of gasoline affordable and he will do what he can to make sure that happens,” Podesta said at the BNEF Summit in New York. He stopped short of saying there would be a release from the SPR any time soon.

Of course he did, knowing the political outcry that would follow. But if the White House has a trigger, say an uncooperative Maduro to point the finger to, then an SPR drain is all but guaranteed.

Meanwhile, it was back when oil was $73 when various idiots made fun of us for pointing out that the SPR will never be refilled, aside for the occasional barrel here and there, injected purely for theatrical purposes.

WTI is $73 now https://t.co/lqzYBr9S9Q

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 16, 2023

We wonder what these upward-failing hacks will say when in its last days, the Biden admin’s parting gift to the US will be to fully drain the SPR.

At his peak, Elon Musk was worth $340BN (Nov 2021) and stood alone as the world’s richest man/women/other. According to Bloomberg’s billionaires list, he is now worth mere $175BN… sliding to just the fourth-richest in the world as Tesla’s share price has declined and after a Delaware judge decided in January that Musk was just paid too damn much for creating a $1.2 trillion company by Nov 2021.

But now, he may be about to climb that wealth ladder back to the top once more as Tesla has asked shareholders to vote again on the same $56 billion compensation package that was voided by a Delaware court early this year.

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s performance-based award in 2018.

“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.

The filing went on to say that negotiating a new pay package would take time and lead to incurring billions of dollars in additional compensation expense.

Therefore, ratifying the 2018 package will be faster and “avoid a prolonged period of uncertainty regarding Tesla’s most important employee.”

Additionally, the filing shows Tesla considered nine other states as alternatives to Delaware before narrowing its choice down to California, Nevada, New York or Texas.

Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 30, 2024

It settled on the state where it’s headquartered and is home to its newest EV plant.

“Tesla is all-in on Texas,” the company said.

“Tesla’s corporate identity is increasingly intertwined with Texas.”

SpaceX has moved its state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas!

If your company is still incorporated in Delaware, I recommend moving to another state as soon as possible. pic.twitter.com/B7FLByL2dY

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 15, 2024

Finally, Bloomberg reports that, according to the filing, dozens of institutional shareholders have contacted Tesla and expressed support for the 2018 compensation plan, including four of the top 10. The carmaker also said that thousands of retail investors have sent letters and emails to the board expressing the same sentiment.

Of course, if this passes the shareholder vote, we assume the honorable Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick – who described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” – will have problems asserting that they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors… since it was the investors themselves, now fully informed, that democratically voted for Musk’s compensation plan.

…or does democracy (and capitalism) die in Delaware?

Update (0955ET):

Boeing faces two hearings on Capitol Hill today: 

First: Senate Commerce Committee

US Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chair of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, will convene a full committee hearing titled “FAA Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) Expert Panel Report” on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, at 10:00 AM EDT. This hearing will review the findings and recommendations from the Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) Expert Review Panel’s final report. The landmark Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act required the FAA to convene an independent expert panel to review the safety management processes and culture of ODA holders like Boeing and make recommendations to address any safety deficiencies.

Watch Live:

The whistleblower hearing begins at 1115 ET.  

*   *   *

The Senate Commerce Committee, which oversees the Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing, will kick off today’s first hearing at 1000 ET. This will feature a panel of aviation experts who recently released a report criticizing Boeing’s “inadequate” and “confusing” safety culture and has called for significant changes. 

The report states, “The procedures and training are complex and in a constant state of change, creating employee confusion, especially among different work sites and employee groups.” The experts noted “a lack of awareness of safety-related metrics” across all levels of the company. 

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), chair of the Senate Commerce Aviation subcommittee, said Tuesday that the Federal Aviation Administration “needs to look at what Boeing does, not just what it says it’s doing.” 

Duckworth, who will attend the first of today’s two hearings, said there is a real possibility that the FAA “is willing to use its “civil enforcement authority when appropriate” against Boeing. 

The second hearing (beginning at 1115 ET) will feature a Boeing quality engineer turned whistleblower who will testify before the Senate Homeland Security Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations about the alleged poor manufacturing quality of the 787 Dreamliner. 

The whistleblower is Sam Salehpour, a quality engineer at Boeing. In a report released last week, he told The New York Times about large sections of the 787’s fuselage that were improperly connected and could break down over time. 

“The entire fleet worldwide, as far as I’m concerned right now, needs attention,” Salehpour told NBC News, adding, “The attention is that you need to check your gaps and make sure that you don’t have the potential for premature failure.”

“The is going to surface some really shocking allegations about failures and safety practices and culture and light and retaliation that should shock the conscience of corporations as well as Americans,” subcommittee Chair Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told The Hill.

Blumenthal added, “The whistleblower will have the guts to show up, and I’m hoping that Dave Calhoun will as well at some point.” 

Meanwhile, Boeing CEO David Calhoun plans to step down at the end of this year. He has repeatedly stated that he wants to improve manufacturing quality and safety culture. Calhoun has not publicly said if he will attend the hearings today. 

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Higher yields threaten to make already-fraying breadth in US stocks even worse. This points to heightened short-term risks for the market, although the medium-term positive trend remains intact.

Breadth measures for the US market have in many cases deteriorated to levels last seen in November. The net number of stocks on the NYSE making new highs has fallen to its November lows, and the same for the S&P 500 advance-decline line. The percentage of S&P stocks with their RSI below 30 has hit six-month highs.

Higher yields are poised to worsen the outlook. Since last summer, there has been a good inverse relationship with the 10-year yield and the percentage of S&P stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. Breadth on this measure is currently higher than the straight-line relationship would imply, and further rises in yields potentially mean more S&P stocks will weaken.

Mark Cudmore has previously pointed out that higher yields in the next few weeks might be less of a problem for stocks, as they are more spurred by growth than inflation. Perhaps that will be the case, but we have not seen any capitulation yet in breadth measures, which would bring more comfort that the current downwards spasm is over.

Nonetheless, the medium-term upwards trend in the market remains intact. One of the simplest and most reliable timers to tell you when to be in and out of the market is the 13 and 26-week moving average crossover for the S&P. The 13-week MA remains above the 26-week, suggesting the market remains in a positive regime over the medium term, despite shorter-term risks.

Resurgent inflation will dominate the medium and longer-term outlook for markets. While the deteriorating risk-reward of shorting Treasuries or buying gold or Bitcoin is more established, there are several other trades that are historically way offside compared to where they have been in previous inflation regimes, and therefore have the most catch-up potential.

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

The Honey Badger’s fourth halving is special for several reasons.

The Bitcoin blockchain is secured by “Proof-of-Work” (PoW) – which is known as “mining”. In simple terms, it uses specialized computers (ASICs) which are optimized to solve a cryptographic math problem – a big one.

The number of computations per second is measured in TerraHashes (TH/s). One TerraHash is a trillion computations. The current hashrate across the entire Bitcoin blockchain is 75K TH/s (75 thousand trillion computations per second).

• For each block there is a particular puzzle that needs to be solved – they’re all the same, but the value of the solution is different each time.

• Each block contains the metadata for all the transactions that occurred on chain during that block period,

• When a miner solves a block, it “wins” the right to append the next block to the blockchain.

• That miner receives “the block reward” for that block (often sharing it with all the other miners in it’s mining pool)

• The new block is appended, cryptographically signed, and the rest of the miners confirm it

• The search begins for a new block

• This happens roughly every ten minutes.

That’s how the Bitcoin blockchain is built and maintained – we can park for now the weeping and wailing from those bemoaning how much electricity that uses (which is a lot) because the net benefit to humanity for having an immutable, decentralized, non-state hard money system is worth it (especially when you compare it to the energy used to enforce the fiat standard, globally).

The Significance of The Halving

Is that every 210,000 blocks, that block reward is cut in half (hence, the “halving” or “halvening”). 210,000 blocks pencils out to about four years.

It is this halving mechanism that creates the 21,000,000 BTC hard cap for Bitcoin.

This halving – which will happen on Friday – is the fourth bitcoin halving – and it will take the block reward down from 6.25 BTC now, to 3.175 afterwards (it started at 50, then 25 in 2012, 12.5 in 2016, 6.25 in 2020, and so on).

In previous cycles this has set up a “supply shock” for the price of Bitcoin – driving prices higher. Sometimes mind-bogglingly so.

This chart via (@ChartsBTC) shows it to us in logarithmic scale (because linear graphs can’t even fit into the window)

#bitcoin price history pic.twitter.com/yPs3HEDQpk

— ChartsBTC (@ChartsBtc) January 21, 2023

As I remarked in this month’s Bitcoin Capitalist  Portfolio Update:

Bitcoin seems to “add a digit” by the time it goes into each successive halving. At first glance this may seem to be superficial pattern, but it’s based on what happens when you measure something in a logarithmic scale.

There’s another famous chart that shows the “progression of digits” that belies a logarithmic progression, and from an earlier chapter in monetary history, a rather famous one:

It becomes more plausible to suspect this progression will continue if we realize two things:

First: we are not looking at Bitcoin’s price action as chart patterns that purportedly foretell the gyrations of some asset or a “meme stock” that can only go so high.

Second: What we’re really witnessing is a rather large, tectonic wealth transfer out of one monetary system and into another – shaped by the dynamics of the four year halving cycle.

In other words, the price trajectory of Bitcoin is mapping out the hyperinflationary spiral of all global fiat currencies. So the answer to the question “how high can it go?” is “How much wealth exists to denominate?” Whatever you came up with for an answer, divide that by 21 million.

That happens to be the base case for The Bitcoin Capitalist – we call it “the monetary regime change” (which was the thesis of the original Crypto Capitalist Manifesto – which you can get free here).

Some other notes about this particular halving:

• After this halving, Bitcoin’s natural inflation rate will be below that of gold’s (which is 2% per year)

• In two more halvings the block reward will drop below 1 BTC per block.

• By 2060, the total block rewards will be less than 1 BTC per day

What the above means, is this:

If you’re a “whole-coiner” (somebody who owns an entire Bitcoin), then by 2032 you’ll own more Bitcoin than the entire mining network earns in subsidies for securing a single block.

By 2060, you (or your children), will own more than the entire Bitcoin network earns in a day (in block subsidies).

Also worth noting that there are more millionaires in the world now (approx. 60 million) than there will ever be Bitcoin. Which means, if every millionaire decided they wanted to own a single Bitcoin, there wouldn’t be enough to go around.

The last thing I’ll say about this halving that makes it different from the prior cycles, is this:

Bitcoin has never put in a new all-time high before the halving. That always came a few months after.

This time it’s put in three. The most recently at $73K/BTC almost exactly a month ago.

*  *  *

We gated memberships to our premium letter The Bitcoin Capitalist – but to commemorate the halving we’re allowing new members until it happens. Check out the halving deal here ».

My forthcoming ebook The CBDC Survival Guide will give you the tools and the knowledge to navigate coming era of Monetary Apartheid. Bombthrower subscribers will get free when it drops (and The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you wait), sign up today. Follow me on Nostr, or Twitter.

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie on Tuesday became the second representative to call for an end to Mike Johnson’s reign as Speaker of the House, joining Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene. 

He delivered that news directly to Johnson in a closed-door Republican conference meeting, telling the Louisianan “you’re not going to be the speaker much longer,” two representatives told Politico. Massie has criticized Johnson for backing aid packages for Ukraine and Israel, kick-the-can spending bills and the extension of warrantless NSA spying via the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — while failing to bolster border security. 

🚨 Congress gives itself a carve out in the reauthorization of FISA 702 warrantless spying on Americans.

The bill requires the FBI to notify and seek consent from Congress before violating the privacy of Congressmen.

This will persuade many members of Congress to vote yes. pic.twitter.com/usKVeNnq3b

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 9, 2024

In March, Greene — incensed at Johnson for collaborating with Democrats to push through a $1.2 trillion spending package over the objection of conservatives seeking spending cuts — filed a motion to “vacate the chair,” which would initiate a vote by House members on whether to fire Johnson from the job of speaker.

It’s unclear when Greene, Massie or someone else will call for a vote on the motion. Greene has said that she wants to allow time “for us to go through the process, take our time and find a new speaker of the House that will stand with Republicans and our Republican majority instead of standing with the Democrats.” She’s also expressed wariness over risking the GOP’s razor-thin House majority — which has withered in recent weeks as multiple Republicans announced they’re leaving Congress before finishing their terms. 

This is how the Constitution dies.

By a tie vote, the amendment to require a warrant to spy on Americans goes down in flames.

This is a sad day for America.

The Speaker doesn’t always vote in the House, but he was the tie breaker today. He voted against warrants. pic.twitter.com/i49GnCzyPm

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 12, 2024

Massie says it’s only a matter of time before the House votes on Greene’s motion to vacate. “The motion is going to get called, OK? Does anybody doubt that? The motion will get called,” Massie told reporters after Tuesday’s meeting.  “And then he’s gonna lose more votes than Kevin McCarthy. And I have told him this in private, like weeks ago.” Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was himself dethroned in October via a motion to vacate the chair.

While Massie and Greene are far from alone in their disappointment in Johnson, many of their disgruntled colleagues are wary of a scenario in which Johnson is ousted and the House spends days or weeks  struggling to settle on a successor.  

Friday, we have one less Republican in the majority as Rep Gallagher leaves instead of finishing his term.

As a going away gift, Speaker Johnson plans to force the senate to take up Gallagher’s bill to ban tiktok and give Presidential power to ban websites.

But still no border.

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 16, 2024

“We saw what happened last fall when this all went down — there’s not an alternative…You are not going to get a majority of votes for any new person,” Louisiana Rep. Garret Graves told Politico.  

Massie has asked Johnson to first allow the party to select a successor, and then voluntarily step down. On Tuesday, Johnson was defiant. “I am not resigning and it is in my view an absurd notion that someone would bring a vacate motion when we are simply trying to do our job,” he told reporters. 

Massie’s announcement in the closed-door meeting ruffled feathers. Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan voiced his discomfort with the idea, saying, “We don’t need that, no way. We don’t want that. We shouldn’t go through that again. That’s a bad idea.” 

“I regard myself as a wartime Speaker.”

Get a grip; we are not at war. You can’t use that as an excuse to justify passage of warrantless spying, a bloated omnibus, or $100 billion in foreign aid. https://t.co/hOb0IRNxVr

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 17, 2024

On Monday night, Johnson compounded conservatives’ anger when he announced he would bring four separate measures to a vote: aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel, aid to Taiwan and another bill with miscellaneous measures including a TikTok ban. As the New York Times explains, the goal is to cobble together legislation that would match what Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is cooking up: 

If all four pieces passed the House, they would then be folded into a single bill for the Senate to take up, in an effort to ensure that senators could not cherry-pick pieces to approve or reject.

“We’re steering toward everything Chuck Schumer wants,” said Massie. Decoupling the proposals also saps conservatives’ leverage to force more spending on border security. Greene called the plan “a scam” and added, “He’s definitely not going to be speaker next Congress if we’re lucky enough to have the majority.”