64.6 F
Chicago
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Home Blog Page 2730

Dollar, Oil, & Gold Jump; Stocks & Bonds Dump As ‘WW3-On’-Risk Reignites

Dollar, Oil, & Gold Jump; Stocks & Bonds Dump As ‘WW3-On’-Risk Reignites

It was all looking so shiny and BTFD-y – Iran had sent some missiles towards Israeli folks; ‘allies’ blocked 99% of them; and Israel appeared unlikely top respond ‘imminently’. Stocks were up, crypto was up, oil was down as ‘WW3-off’ meant risk-on.

But, then the headlines just kept coming from the MidEast, reigniting fears that things were about to escalate quickly once again, sending oil, gold, and the dollar roaring higher.

Add to that the fact that 2Y yields surged up towards 5.00% (after strong nominal retail sales) and ‘risk-off’ rapidly spoiled the overnight dip-buyers’ fun.

Specifically, 5.00% has not been a fun place for S&P 500 multiples in the last couple of years…

Source: Bloomberg

…and it appears the same it true for now with the majors reversing solid early gains into serious weakness as the day unfolded. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were the day’s biggest losers, swinging from almost 1% gains to 1.5% losses by the close…

This was the biggest two-day drop for the S&P 500 since March 10th 2023 (SVB)…

Interestingly, 0-DTE traders were aggressively buying calls into this plunge in stocks (as it appeared they forgot that the buyback desks are currently in blackout and unavailable to rescue them)…

Source: SpotGamma

‘Most Shorted’ Stocks staged the ubiquitous squeeze attempt at the open but were sold pretty consistently from that point on -to close at their lowest in over two months…

Source: Bloomberg

It wasn’t just the small-stocks that got hit. The basket of MAG7 stocks puked pretty hard, echoing the Thursday glitch from the week before last…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were ugly, but before we go there, we note that stocks did end-up playing catch-down to their reality today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold across the board today with the long-end hardest hit (30Y +11bps, 2Y +4bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

…which implicitly bear-steepened the yield curve (2s30s), erasing all of the CPI flattening…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar roared back up to its highest since Nov 13th – this is the biggest 4-day gain since early Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto continued its roller-coaster ride, surging overnight (HK BTC ETFs?) back up to $67,000 (erasing the weekend’s plunge on the Iran attack on Israel) and then falling in line with Nasdaq as the equity selloff accelerated.

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices roared back from earlier weakness with Brent back above $90 and WTI topping $85

Source: Bloomberg

Gold dropped early on after the retail sales print, but then ripped back as war-premium was added back…

Source: Bloomberg

Schwab Global Investment Stratgeist Jeff Kleintop noted gold’s extraordinary ‘war’ gains in a post on X:

Gold has been soaring with a more than 14% gain so far this year. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East – a far larger gain than what usually accompanies a geopolitical event.

A few reasons beyond geopolitics:

  • Investors remain wary of lingering inflation in the US and may be seeking gold as a hedge.

  • The even stronger 20% move up in silver this year, the most AI chip exposed metal, may also be helping.

  • India’s economy continues to boom, boosting gold jewelry demand in the world’s top gold consuming country.

Finally, don’t forget it’s Tax Day today…

Source: Goldman Sachs

Which seasonally is the low of the month…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 16:00

‘Vol Genie’ Is Out Of The Bottle, Geopolitical Tensions Or Not

‘Vol Genie’ Is Out Of The Bottle, Geopolitical Tensions Or Not

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Equity, fixed-income, credit, commodity and even FX volatility are beginning to rise in unison.

The proximate cause may have been rising geopolitical tensions, but the underlying conditions were there long before, and cross-asset volatility is likely to stay elevated.

Volatility across the board had been trending down since October.

But recently it has been rising, particularly over the last week as tensions in the Middle East worsened.

Underlying conditions have favored a rise in volatility for a while.

First, the VIX has been exceptionally low versus other assets’ volatility.

In recent weeks, call skew has been falling relative to put skew, which is typically consistent with a rise in the VIX. Furthermore, index correlation is about as low as it can go, and any rise would take equity volatility higher with it, especially as the volatility of individual stocks has been rising. There has also been a recent surge in option volume on the VIX, with the VVIX (vol of vol index) also rising sharply.

Second, the MOVE index of fixed-income volatility has been falling despite the latent risk of resurgent price growth.

There was an eerie calm in bond markets, not reflective of the inflationary backdrop, which was finally punctured after last week’s higher-than-expected CPI print. Moreover, higher rate volatility leads to higher equity volatility through the vector of index correlation.

Third, the volatility of many metals was very low until very recently.

Gold and copper looked like they were coiling for a bigger move, with both metals rising since March. Silver has been posting some wild moves, and becoming more cocoa-like in its recent behavior.

FX vol has been a perennial laggard in the vol stakes, but even it has shown some life in the last few days. Higher rates volatility should feed through into FX volatility.

The recent spurt higher in cross-asset volatility has been driven by geopolitical concerns, but even if they fade, the genie is out of the bottle, and volatility across assets is primed to stay elevated for the time being.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 15:40

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: FBI Agents Board Container Ship In “Court-Authorized” Investigation 

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: FBI Agents Board Container Ship In “Court-Authorized” Investigation 

Almost three weeks following the incident where a massive container ship collided with and caused the collapse of the 1.6-mile long Francis Scott Key Bridge, thus paralyzing the Port of Baltimore and severely disrupting supply chains throughout Baltimore and the Mid-Atlantic, FBI agents boarded the vessel on Monday morning. 

The Baltimore Sun reports FBI agents boarded the “Dali” container ship earlier today and were “conducting court-authorized law enforcement activity.” 

A spokesperson for the FBI denied to comment on the ongoing investigation. However, Maryland US Attorney Erek Barron provided the local media outlet with this statement: 

“My office generally will not confirm the existence of or otherwise comment about investigations.

“However, the public should know, whether it’s gun violence, civil rights abuse, financial fraud, or any other threat to public safety or property, we will seek accountability for anyone who may be responsible.” 

In the days after the bridge collapse, FBI agents were at the scene. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating why the container ship slammed into the bridge without safety barriers. 

Source: WSJ 

According to the local media outlet, the NTSB’s investigation has been “homing in on the electronics system of the 984-foot ship, getting assistance from Hyundai to assist authorities with the ship’s engine, which the South Korean firm manufactured.” 

Many X users have questioned why, shortly after the incident, the federal government declared there was no evidence of terrorism with hardly an investigation underway. 

Since many crew members of vessels are foreigners, some of whom may come from countries not entirely fond of America, it might be time for the federal government to devise a way to vet every crew member before entering US waters. After all, the world is half on fire with impending major conflict breaking out in the Middle East and ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 15:20

Crib-Notes For The ‘Trial Of The Century’

Crib-Notes For The ‘Trial Of The Century’

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“Once someone determined Trump was so bad it was okay to lie about him, it set the precedent that the only thing that mattered was a subject’s politics.”

– Matt Taibbi

What fascinates us about sex, I suppose, is that most everyone wants it and seeks it, driven by irresistible natural impulses, and yet the act itself is such an affront to civilized decorum that it inspires both comedy and horror, two states of consciousness that are themselves irresistibly compelling. Add lawyers to all that and you find yourself entering the realm of opera bouffe, which is to say, kitsch, human expression reduced to its most self-consciously ridiculous.

Enter Stormy Daniels, that notorious pair of cumulus clouds attached to a person, who made a career in the sex industry and later on, at the age when sex workers generally face retirement, had a fresh start as a political gadfly buzzing around the mystifying hair-do of President Donald Trump. Stormy first encountered Mr. Trump in 2006 when he was a mere TV star who played in a celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe. She was hanging out there with two porn-star girlfriends. Golf nuts all, must’ve been.

Stormy managed to blow into Mr. Trump’s hotel room there, so her story goes, where she apparently teased him into a state of florid desire, while mocking him, and then obliged his advances, even developing a sort of friendship that, over a few years, included more hotel room meet-ups and promises of revamped stardom on his “The Apprentice” TV show, alas, never consummated. Strange to relate, around that time Stormy launched her own political career way before Mr. Trump made the leap into government.

But once Mr. Trump jumped into the 2016 presidential primaries and began to terrify the establishment by winning one contest after another, Stormy finagled a $130,000 hush-money payment through Trump attorney Michael Cohen to keep her big yap shut about their doings.

By 2018, she hitched herself to California lawyer Michael Avenatti (now in prison) and filed a lawsuit against then-President Trump attempting to invalidate the non-disclosure agreement that came with the hush-money. Stormy also engaged a publicist, and, what do you know, The Wall Street Journal published a story about the alleged romance.

By then, Stormy had launched a “publicity tour” and got herself booked on Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night talk show to discuss the allegations.

In December 2018, Stormy lost a defamation suit against President Trump filed by Mr. Avenatti, and was ordered to pay over $300,000 to Mr. Trump.

Five years later, an appeals court ordered her to pay an additional $122,000 to Mr. Trump to cover his legal fees. By then, Michael Avenatti, her lawyer, was in jail in California for embezzling client funds. Various letters had emerged allegedly signed by Stormy stating that she hadn’t engaged in sex with Mr. Trump, along with Facebook conversations on her account saying the same thing.

Also, in 2018, Mr. Trump’s attorney, Michael Cohen, was busted by the FBI for tax evasion and eventually plead guilty. He was interrogated by the Mueller special counsel operation which, by a convoluted route, earned Mr. Cohen a conviction for perjury in congressional testimony.

Stormy Daniels then sued Mr. Cohen for defamation but the case was dismissed.

Mr. Cohen eventually served a year in prison but was released to home confinement due to the Covid-19 event.

These doings did not go unnoticed by the politicized Southern District of New York office of the DOJ and by then Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, Jr. Both tried to construct some kind of case against President Trump on all this monkey business, but gave up because the payment of hush-money was itself not illegal between consenting parties and they could not torture the facts into a theory that would make it a crime.

Also, by then, their chief witness, Mr. Cohen, had been disbarred and was officially branded a perjurer and liar.

Fast-forward to the 2020 election. “Joe Biden” manages to charm swing-state voters from his basement hide-out, moves into the puppet-theater known as the White House, and unleashes the dogs of lawfare on former president Trump so as to knock him off the political game-board for once and for all.

“JB’s” Attorney General, Merrick Garland, sends Deputy AG Matthew Colangelo to work in DA Alvin Bragg’s office, to construct some kind of case out of the Stormy Daniels / Michael Cohen debris.

The result is an improbable farrago of 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to the Stormy Daniels hush-money payments, converted from misdemeanors to felonies on the theory that the falsifications were intended to conceal other election law crimes, including “influencing the 2016 election.”

Each count for which Trump is convicted could result in a prison sentence of up to four years, to be served consecutively, meaning 136 years in jail.

Mr. Trump thus becomes the proverbial ham sandwich that an ambitious DA can convince a grand jury to indict.

Now, Mr. Bragg has to persuade a trial jury to convict, in a courtroom presided over by one Judge Juan Merchan, Democratic Party activist and donor, whose daughter, Loren, has raised $93-million in campaign money for Democratic candidates in this November’s election. The Judge has, so far, refused to recuse himself.

The DA’s chief witness will be Michael Cohen. Donald Trump will be the first US president indicted on criminal charges. He’ll be in the courtroom many days as the trial proceeds, likely into June.

Even if the trial becomes a dumpster fire for the prosecution, Mr. Trump could be convicted by a Trump-deranged New York jury.

Then it’ll be onto the appeals courts. Then, the three other lawfare cases await in Georgia, Florida, and DC.

Do you suppose that Americans actually take comfort in the re-election of “Joe Biden”?

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 15:00

Who Is Funding This Chaos? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Attempt To Paralyze Chicago O’Hare, Golden Gate Bridge

Who Is Funding This Chaos? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Attempt To Paralyze Chicago O’Hare, Golden Gate Bridge

Update (1445ET): 

Hours after pro-Palestinian protesters sparked chaos at Terminal 1 at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, another likely unit of the group has shuttered part of the Golden Gate Bridge. 

X account “Collin Rugg” says:

Pro-Palestine protesters have blocked the Golden Gate Bridge just hours after another group shut down lanes at Chicago O’Hare airport. 

The protest reportedly started in Oakland where they blocked lanes and chained themselves to barrels. 

Now, all southbound direction lanes of the Golden Gate Bridge are blocked causing miles of traffic. 

Protesters say the protests are a part of a “worldwide economic blockade in solidarity with Palestine.” 

These pro-Palestinian groups are running around the country, causing chaos and disruption to critical infrastructure, such as airports and bridges. This reminds us of when the communist group Black Lives Matter sparked chaos during Covid. 

Who are these pro-Palestinian protesters? And who are they being funded by? 

Well, there are concerns that a little-known international organization called Samidoun could be behind the latest demonstrations shutting down American infrastructure. The Israeli government declared Samidoun a terrorist organization in 2021.

“They support terrorism, and they want to gain public opinion — support — for terrorism,” Yossi Kuperwasser, the former chief of the research division in the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence unit, recently said. 

ActiveFence Research sheds more color on Samidoun: 

Meanwhile, some X users are asking why the US and or Canadian governments are ignoring these ‘pro-Hamas’ groups running around causing economic disruptions to critical infrastructure. 

 *   *  *  

Pro-Palestinian protesters are blocking Terminal 1 at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Monday morning, causing chaos for travelers trying to catch flights. 

Local media outlet ABC7 reports that “all lanes were blocked on I-190 west between Bessie Coleman Drive and the airport.” 

CBS News says “Organizers were seeking to disrupt Boeing’s operations, because the company sells weapons to Israel, and to demand an end to the US government’s arming of Israel.” 

Earlier this month, a pro-Palestinian group attacked at least one Western defense company in the UK that makes critical components for F-35 stealth fighter jets.

It’s Monday morning. Don’t these protesters have jobs? Unless they are paid by shadowy groups or NGOs to create chaos. 

*Developing… 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 14:35

Zelensky Condemns Iran, Uses Attack On Israel To Ask For More Money

Zelensky Condemns Iran, Uses Attack On Israel To Ask For More Money

Once again the specter of a major Middle East war has overshadowed the much bloodier and fiercer Russia-Ukraine war, and coming at a moment the Zelensky government is deeply struggling to attract more weapons and funding from Western capitals, most notably Washington.

President Zelensky has weighed in on the Saturday night large-scale Iranian attack on Israel, which was retaliation for the April 1st Israeli strikes that flattened the consulate in Damascus. What’s more is he sought to connect what’s happening in the Middle East right now to Ukraine.

Zelensky condemned Iran for the attack and said Ukrainians understand the “horror” of Iranian drones which have been deployed by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities.

AFP/Getty Images

“Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using ‘Shahed’ drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same ‘Shahed’ drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes,” Zelensky wrote on X Sunday.

“Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world,” added.

He continued to seek to make a  direct connection between the two conflict theaters as follows: “The sound of ‘Shahed’ drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.”

He quickly pivoted from this theme of the Iran and Russia dual threats to “the world” to asking the West for more weapons. The Ukrainian leader emphasized that “words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles,” but only action in form of more advanced weapons systems from allies.

“It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time,” he said.

Back in November, Zelensky actually publicly complained that the war between Israel and Hamas is “taking away the focus” from Russia’s action in Ukraine.

He made the remarks at the time while standing alongside EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. “Of course, it’s clear that the war in the Middle East, this conflict, is taking away the focus,” Zelensky said in the surprisingly blunt admission. “Time has passed, people are tired… But this is not a stalemate,” he had said.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 13:00

“Operation Praying Man Tis” Shows The US In Geopolitical Retreat

“Operation Praying Man Tis” Shows The US In Geopolitical Retreat

By Michael Every of Rabobank

If all you focus on is Brent oil, 10-year US Treasury yields, and the US dollar, relax: they are roughly where they were at the close on Friday before Iran unleashed over 300 suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel: the geopolitical shock in markets today is aluminium up 6% after the London Metal Exchange banned Russian metals. However, if you think financial metrics tell you what’s going to happen in the Middle East, you don’t have a prayer.

On 14 April 1988, a US Navy vessel struck an Iranian mine in the Strait of Hormuz. The US then launched Operation Praying Mantis, and in eight hours, sank two Iranian oil platforms, three warships, several armed boats, and two fighter jets, a blow that helped end the long Iran-Iraq War. That US was the emerging global hyperpower, as the Soviet bloc and USSR slid towards collapse; “geopolitics” meant US muscle opening the way for global US-style capitalism.

The Iranian frigate Sahand burning from bow to stern on 18 April 1988 after being attacked

On 15 April 2024, Operation Praying Man tis, with the US far weaker militarily and unwilling to use full force against the combined challenge of Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea; “geopolitics” means a US retreat, as elite American youth rejects both capitalism and America.

What just happened between Iran and Israel was not the start of WW3. However, neither was it “geopolitical theatre” with fake violence, like a WWF match. It was deadly serious, has huge implications for markets, and is likely not over yet.

We saw the extent and limits of US/Western/Israeli power:

  • Shooting down 99% of the drones/missiles fired at Israel was a remarkable military achievement that will prove a (pricey) template for others (as Ukraine suffers without such a shield). However, this was only a small fraction of the arsenal Iran and Iranian-proxy Hezbollah hold, and they will have now learned how to recalibrate to try to overwhelm Israel’s defences next time.
  • As remarkable was a defence alliance of Jordan, the Saudis, the UK, France, and the US, helping shoot down Iranian attacks. However, this may not hold up to regional political pressures.
  • The economic cost of the defence was staggering – $1.3bn for one night. The attackers paid far less. As with Ukrainian drones vs. the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Houthis vs. the West’s Operation Prosperity Guardian, which is not guarding anyone’s prosperity, if military attack is now multiple times cheaper than defence, the inverse of the past, then we can expect a lot more global attacking to be done.
  • A clear loss of US deterrence is evident given President Biden told Iran’s Khameneni “Don’t!” – and he did anyway, as Putin did before him. Biden is also telling China’s Xi “Don’t!” on Taiwan and the Philippines. It’s not clear if Biden told Israel’s Netanyahu “Don’t!” on striking back against Iran, which the Israeli media says its war cabinet had decided to do on Saturday night but delayed after a phone call with the US. But the US clearly looks weak on many fronts.

Israel has apparently decided to counterattack – just not yet when, where, and how. However, Iran’s new redline is any strike on Iranians anywhere will see it hit Israel directly, and escalate; and a shocked post-10/7 Israel needs to show Iran that when it uses proxies to hurt it, Iranian territory will feel the pain too. Regardless of any talk about “de-escalation”, or the fact the US and Iran don’t want full-blown war, that escalation-ladder geopolitical dynamic should be clear.

Iran has said it will attack US forces in the Middle East (again) if the US helps Israel hit it. The US has said it will not join in any attack, as rumors swirl Qatar and the UAE forbade the US from using its military bases in their countries for strikes on Iran this weekend. However, this does not mean the US won’t help defend Israel (again), or that it will necessarily oppose an Israeli strike: it just wants to be informed in advance this time.

Israel faces a choice between responding to what Iran did (little damage), and what it tried to do (over 300 times the Israeli strike on Damascus). Both carry huge risks.

Israel can keep its new-found support and regional alliance, and the US happy, but it will lose crucial deterrence at a very dangerous time. It would also mean repeating what its public sees as the failed “high tech defences and hope” strategy employed in the past vs. Hamas.

Iran is meanwhile winning the regional long game of a slow-grind, proxy-based “War Between Wars”, and is moving closer to a nuclear weapon: Jerusalem may see this as its last window to act on that existential threat given the ADHD West –briefly– views it with sympathy again. Traditionally cautious PM Netanyahu, slumping in the polls, has always been fixated on Iran, and heads a far-right coalition calling for a counterstrike; there may even be a presumption the US would be forced to step in if things escalate. Yet an Israeli attack risks opening Pandora’s Box: it could fail; and there is no ‘one and done’ – what if Iran then got help from Russia and China? (As China is accused of playing a large role in Russian military rebuilding.)

One “de-escalatory” way out might be for Israel to accept strong G7 sanctions against Iranian energy and ballistic missile production. Yet while the G7 has unequivocally condemned in the strongest terms Iran’s attack on Israel, expressed full solidarity and support to Israel, reaffirmed its commitment towards its security, and “stands ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives”, nothing concrete has been proposed. What would be required to hurt Iran would push energy prices higher, which none of the G7 will accept. After all, we already see the West won’t impose tough secondary sanctions on Central Asia or China because it won’t face the pain needed for a real economic war.

So, with or without sanctions on Iran, over time the geopolitical risks lean towards further upside for energy prices, as we flagged immediately after the 10/7 Hamas attack on Israel (along with saying that the Suez Canal might be closed).

Relatedly, lost in all this noise is last week’s Iranian hijacking of an Israel-linked container vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and the kidnapping of its Filipino/Indian crew: that suggests the need for a larger US Navy presence in Hormuz as well as the Red Sea. In which case, where are the vessels needed for the Indo-Pacific as tensions rise there?

This is the unstable global security architecture markets sit atop while making their torch-on-a-wall forecasts: one wrong move —as predictable moves keep being made— and oil prices can surge, and all economic projections are wrong. So, Operation Praying Man tis:

And markets are praying they can pretend deteriorating geopolitics matter far less than their little models or pretty charts. Like the one showing USD/JPY at 153.42, proof the global geoeconomic and financial architecture was already at risk of breaking down even before Iran attacked Israel directly

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 12:40

‘Hope’ Hammered As Empire Fed Plunged In April – Below All Estimates

‘Hope’ Hammered As Empire Fed Plunged In April – Below All Estimates

New York state factory activity contracted in April for a fifth straight month, printing at -14.3 (dramatically below the -5.2 print expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

…that was below all analysts’ estimates…

Source: Bloomberg

…but even more problematically, prices paid (and received) surged to their highest in a year (and it appears that all those illegal immigrants in New York are not getting jobs in the manufacturing sector). Labor market conditions remained weak with employment and hours worked moving lower…

New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher.

Not a pretty picture…

“Manufacturing activity continued to contract in New York State in April, and employment continued to decline. Optimism about the outlook for future business conditions remained subdued.

~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed

All of which just confirms the current theme in macro data  – ‘soft’ survey data has collapsed relative to the ‘inflated’ ‘hard’ data…

Source: Bloomberg

…which means ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – is plummeting back toward cycle lows since Biden was elected.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 12:20

Trump Trial Gets Started, Prosecutors Want ‘Contempt’ Ruling Over Gag: Live Updates

Trump Trial Gets Started, Prosecutors Want ‘Contempt’ Ruling Over Gag: Live Updates

Update (1200ET): Monday’s ‘hush money’ trial against former President Donald Trump has begun, with jury selection and a discussion over evidence on the table. To get the blow-by-blow throughout the day, follow this thread on X by Inner City Press.

The case stems from a $130,000 payment made by Trump’s former lawyer, convicted felon and admitted liar Michael Cohen, to adult film actress Stormy Daniels at the end of the 2016 election in an alleged scheme to buy her silence. Trump is required to be present for the trial, which will take place four days a week and could last up to two months.

Judge Juan Merchan kicked off the day by refusing a request by Trump’s legal team to recuse himself from the case over an interview he gave to the press in which he mentioned the case, which Merchan said was within the law – while Merchan’s wife and daughter have worked for prominent Democrats and/or made anti-Trump statements.

Prosecutors sought to include evidence from the Access Hollywood ‘grab ’em by the pussy’ tape, as well as various sexual assault allegations from Trump accusers. Merchan allowed a transcript of the tape, and denied a request to present the other allegations in court.

Next, prosecutor Joshua Steinglass asked Trump’s attorneys to explain how the former president shouldn’t be held in contempt for allegedly violating Merchan’s gag order – arguing that Trump’s efforts have continued to this day, and that witnesses in the case “have incurred the wrath of Trump supporters.”

And now, jury selection begins… with Merchan telling the court that 500 prospective jurors are waiting.

Stay tuned for updates…

*  *  *

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I have long been critical of the case as a clear example of the weaponization of the criminal justice system. No one seriously believes that Alvin Bragg would have spent this time and money to prosecute what is ordinarily a state misdemeanor if the defendant was anyone other than Trump. One does not have to be like Trump to repel from the spectacle about to unfold in Manhattan.

The famous Roman philosopher and orator Marcus Tullius Cicero once said, “The more laws, the less justice.”

This week, New York judges and lawyers appear eager to prove that the same is true for cases against Donald Trump. 

After an absurd $450 million decision courtesy of Attorney General Letitia James, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will bring his equally controversial criminal prosecution over hush money paid to a former porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

Lawyers have been scouring the civil and criminal codes for any basis to sue or prosecute Trump before the upcoming 2024 election. This week will highlight the damage done to New York’s legal system because of this unhinged crusade. They’ve charged him with everything short of ripping a label off a mattress.

Just a few weeks ago, another judge imposed a roughly half billion dollar penalty in a case without a single victim who lost a single cent on loans with Trump. (Indeed, bank officials testified they wanted more business with the Trump organization).

Now Bragg is bringing a case that has taken years to develop and millions of dollars in litigation cost for all parties. That is all over a crime from before the 2016 election that is a misdemeanor under state law that had already expired under the statute of limitations.

Like his predecessor, Bragg previously scoffed at the case. However, two prosecutors, Carey R. Dunne and Mark F. Pomerantz, then resigned and started a public pressure campaign to get New Yorkers to demand prosecution.

Pomerantz shocked many of us by publishing a book on the case against Trump —  who was still under investigation and not charged, let alone convicted, of any crime. He did so despite objections from his former colleague that such a book was grossly improper.

Nevertheless, it worked. Bragg brought a Rube Goldberg case that is so convoluted and counterintuitive that even liberal legal analysts criticized it.

Trump paid Daniels to avoid any publicity over their brief alleged affair. As a celebrity, there was ample reason to want to keep the affair quiet, and that does not even include the fact that he is a married man.

It also occurred before the 2016 election and there was clearly a benefit to quash the scandal as a candidate. That political motivation is at the heart of this long-delayed case.

It is a repeat of the case involving former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards. In 2012, the Justice Department used the same theory to charge the former Democratic presidential candidate after a disclosure that he not only had an affair with filmmaker Rielle Hunter but also hid the fact that he had a child by her. Edwards denied the affair, and money from donors was passed to Hunter to keep the matter quiet.

The Justice Department spent a huge amount on the case to show that the third-party payments were a circumvention of campaign finance laws. However, Edwards was ultimately found not guilty on one count while the jury deadlocked on the other five.

With Trump, the Justice Department declined a repeat of the Edwards debacle and did not bring any federal charge.

But Bragg then used the alleged federal crime to bootstrap a defunct misdemeanor charge into a felony in the current case. He is arguing that Trump intentionally lied when his former lawyer Michael Cohen listed the payments as retainer costs rather than a payment — to avoid reporting it as a campaign contribution to himself.

Thus, if he had simply had Cohen report the payment as “hush money,” there would be no crime.

Once again, the contrast to other controversies is telling.

Before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton’s campaign denied that it had funded the infamous Steele dossier behind the debunked Russian collusion claims.

The funding was hidden as legal expenses by then-Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias. (The FEC later sanctioned by the campaign over its hiding of the funding.). When a reporter tried to report the story, he said Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman declared, “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

Likewise, John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, was called before congressional investigators and denied categorically any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Sitting beside him was Elias, who reportedly said nothing to correct the misleading information given to Congress.

Yet, there were no charges stemming from the hiding of the funding, though it was all part of the campaign budget.

Making this assorted business even more repellent will be the appearance of Cohen himself on the stand. Cohen recently was denounced by a judge as a serial perjurer who is continuing to game the system.

Cohen has a long record as a legal thug who has repeatedly lied when it served his interests. He has a knack for selling his curious skill set to powerful figures like Trump and now Bragg.

For those of us who have been critics of Cohen from when he was still working for Trump, it is mystifying that anyone would call him to the stand to attest to anything short of the time of day . . . and even then most of us would check our watches.

Fortunately witnesses are no longer required to put their hand on the bible in swearing to testify truthfully in court. Otherwise, the court would need the New York Fire Department standing by in case the book burst into flames.

So this is the case: A serial perjurer used to convert a dead state misdemeanor into a felony based on an alleged federal election crime that was rejected by the Justice Department.

They could well succeed in a city where nine out of ten potential jurors despise Trump. Trying Trump in Manhattan is about as difficult as the New York Yankees going to bat using beach balls rather than baseballs. It is hard to miss.

However, this is a Pyrrhic victory for the New York legal system. Whatever the outcome, it may prove a greater indictment of the New York court system than the defendant.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 12:11

“The Lies Are Just Unreal” – Ed Dowd Rages As ‘Govts & Media Continue Pretending Massive Health Crisis Not Going On’

“The Lies Are Just Unreal” – Ed Dowd Rages As ‘Govts & Media Continue Pretending Massive Health Crisis Not Going On’

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is still a skillful number cruncher.  His recently updated and wildly popular book “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” has been correctly documenting the huge numbers of deaths and injuries caused by the CV19 bioweapon vax. 

Many are waking up to this crime against humanity, but many remain in the dark because the government and Lying Legacy Media (LLM) continue to cover up the worst murder and disability fraud in world history.  Dowd says:

“At this point, it’s overwhelming and has become almost comical…

This is asymmetric information.  So, we have governments and media continuing to pretend a massive health crisis with chronic illness, deaths and disabilities is not going on.  The data would suggest otherwise…

The data we have made public is free, but some people want projections and decision-making ideas. These are things we might end up starting a business from.  I would have never thought we could.  This is what asymmetric information does, and the government and the media are suppressing this information.”

A quick look at the overall casualties from the CV19 vax reveal an unparalleled medical disaster.  Dowd explains:

“I went before Senator Ron Johnson in February to talk about the ‘pandemic scorecard,’ which is abysmal. 

Ever since the CV19 vaccine came on, we have had 1.1 million Americans die excessively, 4 million permanently disabled and another 28 million injured.  It’s 33 million people who have been negatively affected now. 

The question you have to ask is why are these institutions not screaming from the rooftops?  I think the reason why is, it’s all because of the (deadly) vaccine.  It’s all circular, and I think it’s a joke at this point.”

Is the worst over? 

The short answer from Dowd is No. 

Dowd contends, “Let’s just look at the disability data…”

” We surged to a new high in June of 2023.  We have not gone to a new high since.  It kind of backfilled a little bit, but the last two months we have seen back-to-back increases.  This is a called a plateauing effect. 

If it was all clear, I would like to see that number come down.  Unfortunately, it’s not.  

It can start to go back down, or it can have another consolidation and another spurt upward. 

The bad news is it is plateauing at a new high level. 

The good news is it has not gone up to a new level, but if it does, we have problems.”

One big problem Dowd has spotted is an explosion of cancers and, yes, you cannot get the truth about this either.  Dowd says:

“The fact that people will not even say that cancers are on the rise is pretty comical to me.  Doctors were reporting it anecdotally, and now we have the data to prove it.  This is where we are…

In 2022, I said that ‘60,000 millennials died excessively between March of 2021 and February of 2022.  That was a Vietnam War.’  That tweet went viral, and Reuters and AP fact checked me and said no, our experts say that’s not true. 

Now, even the establishment is saying there is excessive all-cause mortality.  So, we are now in a stage where cancers are not rising.  They are now denying that.  The lies are just unreal.”

There is much more in the 36-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the recently updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023”

You can order Dowd’s newly updated book called “Cause Unknown” by clicking here. If you want to go to Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com, click here. Dowd’s work on compiling data on deaths and disabilities caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax is all free at his website.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/15/2024 – 12:10