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China’s Helium Export Ban Raises New Risks For Global Supply Chains

China’s Helium Export Ban Raises New Risks For Global Supply Chains

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times,

China has imposed a temporary ban on helium exports, adding fresh uncertainty to global supplies of a gas essential to semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace, medical equipment, and other high-tech industries.

The first pilot helium production facility in Europe, located in Saint-Parize-le-Châtel, France, on Sept. 11, 2024. FREDERIC MOREAU/Hans Lucas via AFP/Getty Images

The July 10 announcement by China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs comes as Beijing faces mounting pressure on its own helium supplies following disruptions to imports from Qatar and Russia.

Analysts who spoke to The Epoch Times say the move appears primarily aimed at safeguarding China’s domestic supply rather than directly targeting the United States. However, since Chinese companies have increasingly served as intermediaries for Russian helium exports, the restriction could further disrupt global supply chains, particularly in Europe.

Beijing Announces Temporary Export Ban

The Chinese regime said the export restriction was imposed under the country’s Foreign Trade Law. It took effect immediately. The regime did not specify how long the temporary measure would remain in place.

Helium is a colorless, odorless, non-toxic inert gas extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing. Since it cannot be manufactured or replenished, it is considered a strategic resource.

The gas plays a critical role in semiconductor production, where it is used for wafer cooling, plasma etching, chemical vapor deposition, atomic layer deposition, photolithography support, and leak detection. It is also widely used in medical imaging, aerospace, scientific research, and advanced manufacturing.

Despite expanding domestic production, China still relies heavily on imported helium.

According to industry data from China Fortune Securities, approximately 84 percent of China’s helium supply is dependent on foreign imports, with natural gas producers Qatar and Russia accounting together for nearly half of global helium production. The United States is the world’s largest helium producer, producing more than 40 percent of global production.

China sources roughly 46 percent of its helium imports from Qatar and about 35 percent from Russia. But these import channels have come under increasing pressure this year.

According to a report on Chinese news portal Sina, maritime routes carrying Qatari helium through the Persian Gulf were disrupted amid the Iran war. In April, Russia announced temporary export controls on helium through the end of 2027, reducing export quotas to Asia to roughly 40 percent of 2025 levels. The China Liquefied Natural Gas Association estimated that those developments have created a helium supply shortfall exceeding 60 percent for China.

Cheng Cheng-ping, a professor of finance at Taiwan’s National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, told The Epoch Times that Beijing’s decision appears to be driven largely by domestic supply concerns rather than geopolitical retaliation.

“The timing suggests this is primarily an act of self-preservation,” he said. “It is different from previous export controls on rare earths, which were more directly aimed at the United States.”

Beijing has been working to expand China’s domestic semiconductor industry while reducing reliance on advanced chips restricted by U.S. export controls.

“China is engaged in intense competition with the United States in high-end industries but remains behind technologically,” Cheng said. “Restricting exports allows it to retain more resources to support its own advanced manufacturing.”

Shen Ming-shih, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times that several factors likely influenced the decision, but domestic industrial demand appears to be the primary consideration.

“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can still import helium from Russia for now,” Shen said. “But if Russian supplies tighten further through 2027 while imports from other sources remain constrained, China’s own helium resources will become increasingly scarce.”

China’s Role as a Russian Helium Middleman

While the export restrictions may help preserve domestic supplies, they could also tighten international markets because Chinese companies have become important intermediaries in the global helium trade.

According to a June report by U.K.-based industry intelligence firm Gasworld, Western sanctions have largely prevented Russia from exporting helium directly to Europe. Instead, Chinese companies have been importing Russian helium at relatively low prices – often in volumes exceeding China’s own domestic consumption – and re-exporting part of those shipments to overseas markets, including Europe.

Russian helium exports to China averaged 38 million cubic feet per month in 2025, a 60 percent increase from the previous year, according to the report. Shipments reached 71 million cubic feet in December alone.

China’s export ban could further tighten global helium supplies because of the country’s growing role as a redistribution hub for Russian helium.

Cheng said the United States is unlikely to be significantly affected because of its own supplies.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the United States accounted for 44 percent of global helium production in 2024, followed by Qatar at 34 percent, Russia at 9 percent, and Algeria at 6 percent.

“The impact will be much greater for Europe and other countries that previously relied on Russian or Qatari helium but increasingly obtained those supplies through China,” Cheng said.

With Russian exports constrained by sanctions and Middle Eastern supplies facing periodic disruptions, China has gained considerable leverage as an intermediary, he said.

“By restricting exports now, China is increasing risks across the global supply chain,” Cheng said.

He added that Beijing has previously leveraged its position in global supply chains to exert pressure on agricultural imports from Australia, Brazil, and Taiwan.

“Now, helium has become another example,” Cheng said. “China is only an intermediary, but it is using that position as a tool to influence markets and supply chains. Companies trading with authoritarian regimes need to factor these risks into their supply-chain planning.”

Shen said the ultimate impact of the export restrictions will depend on how heavily individual countries rely on Chinese helium exports and whether they can secure alternative suppliers.

European countries may experience greater short-term disruptions, he said, but the move could also encourage importers to diversify their sources and reduce dependence on China.

Tang Bing, Luo Ya, and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 13:05

Just 27.6% Of Stocks Outperform The Market While 60% Destroy Shareholder Wealth, New Study Finds

Just 27.6% Of Stocks Outperform The Market While 60% Destroy Shareholder Wealth, New Study Finds

From 1926 through 2025, just 27.6% of stocks beat the broader market. Nearly 60% actually destroyed shareholder wealth, and the median stock delivered a lifetime return of -6.9%. Yet despite those sobering odds, U.S. stocks collectively created roughly $91 trillion in wealth over the last century, with just 46 companies responsible for half of it.

Those are some of the headline findings from a new study by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business, who examined the performance of nearly 30,000 U.S. stocks over the last century. The research paints a striking picture of how wealth is actually created in the stock market: while broad market indexes have generated exceptional long-term returns, the vast majority of individual stocks have failed to keep pace.

Bessembinder analyzed 29,754 publicly traded U.S. stocks between 1926 and 2025. Over that period, the overall stock market produced an annualized return of about 10.1%, turning every dollar invested into more than $15,000, according to the study, detailed in this white paper

But those impressive aggregate returns mask an uncomfortable reality. The typical stock fared far worse. In fact, the median stock lost 6.9% over its lifetime, fewer than half of all stocks generated a positive lifetime return, only about 41% outperformed Treasury bills during the time they were publicly traded, and just 27.6% managed to outperform the market itself.

The reason is simple: stock market returns are incredibly uneven. While any stock can fall to zero, there is effectively no limit to how much a winner can rise. Over long periods, a tiny number of extraordinary companies generate gains so large that they more than offset the thousands of stocks that stagnate, disappoint, or disappear altogether. Those rare winners account for an outsized share of the market’s overall success.

Perhaps the most surprising finding is that this concentration has become even more extreme. In Bessembinder’s original research covering 1926 through 2016, 89 companies accounted for half of all shareholder wealth created by the U.S. stock market. After adding the last nine years of data, total wealth creation more than doubled to roughly $91 trillion, yet the number of companies responsible for half of it fell to just 46.

At the top of the list are many of today’s biggest technology names. Apple ranks first, generating more than $5 trillion in shareholder wealth, followed by Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. Collectively, those five companies account for more than one-fifth of all net wealth created by the U.S. stock market over the past century, while Apple and Nvidia alone make up more than one-tenth of the total.

The concentration becomes even more remarkable further down the data. Out of more than 29,000 companies included in the study, just 1,082, less than 4% of the total, were responsible for all of the market’s net wealth creation. Meanwhile, nearly six out of every ten companies actually reduced shareholder wealth relative to simply investing in one month Treasury bills.

The study also pushes back against the idea that market legends are built on impossible annual returns. Many of history’s greatest investments didn’t earn 50% or 100% per year. Instead, they compounded at annual rates in the low to mid teens over extraordinarily long periods. The lesson is that consistent returns sustained over decades are often far more powerful than eye popping gains that prove impossible to maintain.

For investors, the findings reinforce one of the strongest arguments for diversification. While the stock market as a whole has created enormous wealth over the past century, identifying the relatively small group of companies that ultimately drive those returns has always been exceptionally difficult. Missing just a handful of those long-term winners can dramatically reduce investment results, which helps explain why broad index funds have consistently outperformed most active stock pickers over long horizons.

Bessembinder concludes that the tendency for a small number of companies to drive most of the market’s returns is unlikely to disappear because it is a natural consequence of how returns compound over time. The bigger question, he suggests, is whether technologies like artificial intelligence will make wealth creation even more concentrated in a handful of dominant firms, or broaden the playing field enough to create the next generation of market leaders.

You can read the full white paper here.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 12:45

AI Companies Absorbing Office Space At Record Pace: Report

AI Companies Absorbing Office Space At Record Pace: Report

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Artificial intelligence (AI) firms are absorbing office space in primary markets such as San Francisco and New York City at a record pace, and the sector’s voracious demand for office space to build out development teams and products has begun spilling into a select subset of submarkets as well.

National AI office demand was up 85 percent in the 12 months through May and spiked 179 percent in major AI hubs, a new AI report published on July 9 by AI-powered commercial real estate platform VTS states.

AI companies represented office demand of 16.8 million square feet across 17 markets during the period, VTS senior research manager Rene Moreira noted.

However, three metro areas represented nearly two-thirds of total office demand from AI companies, with San Francisco—the global epicenter for AI talent and development—accounting for 25 percent.

Office properties in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, California, and New York accounted for 63 percent of all current AI leasing, Moreira said.

“San Francisco alone sits at 5 million square feet, nearly a third of the national total,” he said.

Unprecedented office demand from AI companies in San Francisco is powering the city’s office market to a modest recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter of 2019, San Francisco’s office market hit a vacancy rate of 4.7 percent. Vacancy soared following work-from-home initiatives, however, reaching 30 percent in 2023 and topping out at 35.7 percent as recently as the second quarter of 2025, the City of San Francisco reported.

San Francisco’s office vacancy stood at 32.6 percent at the end of the first quarter of this year.

“San Francisco’s 81 active AI requirements average 62,000 square feet, 2.3 times the average tech requirement across all markets,” Moreira said.

The 45 active AI office lease searches in New York average 61,00 square feet each, while the 58 active searches in Silicon Valley average about 48,000 square feet, or 2.8 million square feet of office space.

Each submarket caters to different AI users, VTS noted. San Francisco is the headquarters of AI pioneers Anthropic (Claude) and OpenAI (ChatGPT), while Silicon Valley’s AI firms tend to be chip designers, hardware manufacturers, and infrastructure providers. New York’s AI companies are skewed toward enterprise-level AI firms, a nod to the city’s massive financial, legal, and media industries. AI firms in Washington, such as Anduril, Palantir, and Shield AI, serve the defense industry.

Expansion

As the industry continues to grow, other markets are likely to become AI epicenters themselves, VTS said. Expansion will hit primary office markets such as Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Austin, Texas.

Seattle has already experienced a 390 percent year-over-year spike in growth from AI-related demand, the report said, signaling that outward expansion is already underway.

“Three pressures will push demand outward: AI engineering talent is scarce, San Francisco real estate is expensive, and 25 percent of active AI demand concentrated in a single submarket will produce the crowding that pushed prior cycles outward,” VTS said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 12:25

Warren Buffett Cuts Gates Foundation From Annual Stock Giving As Epstein Scandal Shadows Over Bill Gates

Warren Buffett Cuts Gates Foundation From Annual Stock Giving As Epstein Scandal Shadows Over Bill Gates

Warren Buffett excluded the Gates Foundation from his annual charitable stock gifts for the first time in two decades, as scrutiny over Bill Gates’ connections with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein continues to cast a dark shadow over Gates and the foundation.

CNBC reports that the 95-year-old chairman will donate 9 million Class B shares to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, and 1 million shares each to the Sherwood Foundation, the Howard G. Buffett Foundation, and the Novo Foundation.

“My goal is to dispose of all of my Berkshire shares within about eight years,” Buffett wrote in a statement announcing the gifts.

He added, “As I explained last year, my children are unfortunately growing older. I have every hope that the three of them are able to carry out the disposal of my shares by December 31, 2034.”

Buffett’s exclusion of the Gates Foundation breaks decades of giving; the foundation has received more than $47 billion in Berkshire stock from Buffett since 2006. This follows scrutiny of the foundation’s ties to Epstein, and Buffett has recently said he has not spoken with Gates since the controversy erupted.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the Gates Foundation slashed 500 jobs, or about 20% of its staff, as the organization has come under fire for Gates’ ties to Epstein. Back in February, Gates pulled out as a keynote speaker at a high-profile global AI summit in India.

The Gates Foundation CEO recently told employees during a town hall event that the Gates-Epstein relationship had deeply tarnished the nonprofit’s reputation, according to a Financial Times report.

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

However, it is not just the Gates-Epstein ties that Buffett should be concerned about.

Late last year, the Gates Foundation had to publicly sever ties with far-left philanthropic adviser Arabella Advisors, which engineered a revolutionary network of nonprofit entities, including the New Venture Fund, Sixteen Thirty Fund, Hopewell Fund, and Windward Fund, that support the permanent protest industrial complex against President Trump.

Meanwhile, even left-wing outlets like Bloomberg are criticizing the Gates family.

How will Bill repair his image, or will he ever be able to?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 09:25

Iran Launches ‘Brazen’ Attacks On More Tankers In Hormuz, Killing Sailors, After Araghchi Mocked Trump’s Toll Plan

Iran Launches ‘Brazen’ Attacks On More Tankers In Hormuz, Killing Sailors, After Araghchi Mocked Trump’s Toll Plan

The battle for Hormuz has ramped up after the United States has undertaken three consecutive nights of major bombing raids against Iranian targets.

All the while President Trump is said to be “very serious” about his plan to impose a 20% toll on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a Semafor report says, citing a White House official who says the president has desired such a plan for months. Both warring sides are insisting that it is their side alone which will be ‘guardian’ over the strait.

AFP/Getty Images

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi took some jabs at the proposed US plan soon after Trump unveiled it on Truth Social.

“POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service,” Araghchi wrote on X. “20% is of course too much. We will be fair,” he added.

Below: ongoing reports that the Houthis are entering the war after Monday missile attacks on the kingdom:

The same day, a clip of Secretary of State Marco Rubio from late June insisting that “no country” can extract tolls went viral. “That’s the law. It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway,” Rubio said.

“That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world and that’s the way we’ll expect it’ll be here.” He added: “I think all the countries in this region would agree.”

Meanwhile Iranian sources continue to warn the West, also with dramatic images of tankers exploding:

German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd says also agrees that charging fees for what is in reality international waters and thus under the control of no single nation “would be fundamentally wrong”.

Even amid a relentless bombing campaign, Iranian forces have not shown signs of backing off their enforcement of their navigation protocol.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has on Tuesday newly “targeted and disabled” two supertankers for switching off navigation systems which involved “ignoring warnings and endangering navigation,” according to Tasnim.

Al Jazeera reports early Tuesday, “It’s been an active night and morning for air defense systems in several countries in this region because of missiles and projectiles fired from Iran.”

“This has affected the ship traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we saw the lowest number of ships passing in five weeks,” it continues, adding: “There were only six ships. The day before that, there were 14.”

At least three tankers have been struck overnight into Tuesday, with among them:

The tanker Stolt Magnesium has caught ⁠fire after the “explosion of an unidentified external device” as it was ⁠sailing in the Arabian Sea off Oman, its ⁠manager, Stolt Tankers, says.

The incident occurred at 12:40am (20:40 GMT on Monday) and caused a fire in the ‌vessel’s engine room, the company said in a statement.

The UAE and Gulf allies have strongly condemned the ‘brazen’ attacks on international shipping.

Source: CNN

There are growing deaths among seafarers in what’s obviously the world’s most dangerous and volatile energy transit water way. India has formally summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador after an Indian sailor was killed.

According to the UAE defense ministry, the casualty occurred when two Iranian cruise missiles targeted two UAE vessels in the crucial shipping lane, leaving one Indian national dead and eight others wounded.

More latest developments

via Newsquawk…

  • US President Trump reiterated that Iran has no air force, no navy and no military, while he said they will hit Iran very hard on Monday night and on Tuesday. Trump said they had a deal yesterday and that Iran breaks deals, as well as commented that the MoU was built to test Iran and that Iran didn’t honour it. Trump also stated that they will hit ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ pretty soon and have their eyes on the site all the time, which is a good potential target
  • US Central Command announced that it conducted and completed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with US strikes reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, while explosions were also reported in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Kish Island. More recently, there have been reports of explosions have been heard near Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Choghadak.
  • Details of US President Trump’s proposed Strait of Hormuz toll plan are still being finalised, according to Semafor, saying Trump is ‘very serious about the tolls.
  • Iran’s armed forces have begun targeting US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with cruise missiles, Al Mayadeen reported.
  • Iranian Army Spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not be open with US aggressions and war, SNN reported.
  • IRGC said it targeted weapons warehouses, satellite communications centres, and US forces’ housing building at Bahrain’s Juffair base. Iran’s army also targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, as well as targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles, while it was separately reported that a US military base in Jordan was hit by a missile attack and that a missile attack hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition group site east of Iraq’s Erbil.
  • UKMTO received a report that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile 40NM northeast of Qalhat, Oman. UKMTO reports of an incident 13NM southeast of Lima, Oman, the tanker was reportedly hit by a missile transiting outbound on the southern route
  • The UAE Defence Ministry reported that two national tankers were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern Strait of Hormuz, with the incident occurring in Omani territorial waters, although the fires on both tankers were brought under control, and it reserved the right to respond to the escalation.
  • ADNOC confirmed tankers “Al Bahyah” and “Mombasa B” were hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Oman’s Foreign Minister said complex talks are under way to make a long-term arrangement to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 09:05

Rate-Hike Odds Slump As US Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID In June

Rate-Hike Odds Slump As US Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID In June

With oil prices having tumbled (before this latest resurgence) but semiconductor prices soaring still, expectations were for a small 0.1% MoM decline in CPI but in fact it printed dramatically cooler, dropping 0.4% MoM – the biggest monthly decline since COVID (April 2020), dragging the YoY CPI change down to +3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Both Goods and Services costs saw YoY growth decline…

Energy dominated the decline while Core Services rose very modestly…

CPI breakdown:

  • Headline CPI down 0.4% MoM in June after rising 0.5% in May. This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8% .

  • Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5% YoY after rising 4.2% in May.

    • Core CPI rose 2.6% over the year, following a 2.9% increase in May.

    • The energy index increased 15.7% for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 3.0% over the last year.

    • The shelter index increased 3.3% over the last year.

    • Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+26.5%, medical care (+2.0%), recreation (+2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.5%).

Headline components:

  • CPI energy fell 5.7% in June after rising 3.9% in May, 3.8% in April, and 10.9% in March. The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food.

  • CPI for food increased 0.2% over the month, as did the index for food at home and the index for food away from home.

Energy’s decline was the largest since Aug 2022…

Oil’s tumble (as we predicted) helped a lot…

On a short-term annualized basis, inflation collapsed… from 8.2% to 2.8%…

Core CPI was unchanged (also below expectations), slowing the annual pace of inflation to +2.5% YoY…

Core components:

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June (technically down 0.017). Indexes that decreased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and personal care were among the major indexes that increased in June.

  • The shelter index increased 0.1 percent over the month, the smallest 1-month change reported for that index since January 2021.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent in June, and the index for rent increased 0.1 percent.

    • The lodging away from home index fell 2.3 percent over the month.

    • Shelter index rose 3.28% YoY, down from 3.37% in May and first annual decline since March

    • Rent index rose 2.84% YoY, down from 2.92% in May and first annual decline since March

  • The motor vehicle insurance index declined 2.0% in June after falling 1.7% in May.

  • The index for new vehicles was unchanged in June after declining 0.3% in May

    • The used cars and trucks index fell 0.2% in June.

  • The index for communication fell 1.5% over the month, and the index for apparel declined 0.6%.

  • The medical care index decreased 0.1% in June after rising 0.3 percent in May.

  • The index for physicians’ services decreased 0.2% over the month, and the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1%.

    • The hospital services index increased 0.1% in June.

  • The index for recreation increased 0.5% over the month after rising 0.3% in May.

  • The household furnishings and operations index rose 0.2% in June as did the personal care index.

Supercore CPI also saw it biggest MoM drop since COVID, down -0.2% MoM, led by Education & Communication, and Transportation services

This is great news for Kevin Warsh and the Fed“, said David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation

“Everyone expected energy to drop, but there was also good news in car prices, shelter and apparel.

However, these trends might not last if renewed conflict in the Middle East lifts oil prices. Disinflation gets harder going forward if energy doesn’t keep falling.

If JPMorgan traders are right, this should mean a 1-1.5% gain in stocks…

Rate-hike odds plunged…

So will Fed Governor Waller walk back his hawkishly panicky remarks yesterday?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 08:40

Futures Mixed Ahead Of CPI And Warsh Testimony, As IBM Sinks, Bank Earnings Fizzle

Futures Mixed Ahead Of CPI And Warsh Testimony, As IBM Sinks, Bank Earnings Fizzle

US stocks are struggling for direction as traders waited to buy the dip on a busy day that kicked off with Wall Street earnings whichwith JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi and Wells all reporting. Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress and CPI data are due later. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% with Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.6%, set for a rebound from the selloff in AI-linked names yesterday and defying declines elsewhere. In premarket trading, IBM crashed 20% – the most since 1987 – after unexpectedly preannouncing a big revenue miss; elsewhere, semiconductors are leading after Korea’s Kospi staged a powerful rebound from session lows while SK Hynix saw a 10% swing in Korea trading; Mag7 is mixed, and the AI theme is bid.  WTI crude traded around $80/bbl and Brent above $86/bbl (both off session highs) as the ceasefire / MoU appear to be voided with both sides claiming control of the SoH.  Both Disc and Staples are lower, perhaps reflecting some consumer fears. Energy / Mats are bid on the Middle East, Fins are bid into earnings, Industrials are higher with the AI theme with HC mixed. Higher oil prices lifted odds of a July US rate hike in place, with swap markets signaling a nearly 40% chance of a hike when the Fed meets later this month. The yield on two-year UK gilts touched the highest level since May. Treasuries edged higher and the dollar fell. Traders will closely watch the CPI data, especially after the Fed’s Waller, a former dove, said Monday that a hike is on the table if inflation stays hot and as bond market volatility saw a double-digit jump. The recent fall in gasoline prices likely helped drag down the CPI print, which may notch its first monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.  The macro focus is on CPI plus the consumer / GDP read-through from GSIBs. The data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), June CPI (8:30am) and May TIC flows (4pm), Fed calendar includes Warsh’s testimony on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services at 10am. Also scheduled to speak are Governor Barr (12:40pm), Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (1pm) and Governors Cook (1:30pm) and Bowman (2:55pm).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed:  Apple is down 0.7% after being cut to underweight at KeyBanc, which expects weaker device demand and service revenue growth in the US (Nvidia +1.2%, Tesla +0.3%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Microsoft -2.8%, Meta Platforms -1.1%).

  • IBM (IBM) sinks 19% after reporting preliminary quarterly sales results that missed analysts estimates, with Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna saying customers were holding back spending.
  • Software and IT/professional services stocks are broadly lower after IBM’s preliminary revenue for the second quarter fell short of the consensus estimate. Microsoft falls 2.8%, Intuit drops 5% and Adobe declines 4.8%
  • CoStar Group (CSGP) falls 5% after the real estate analytics firm named Robin Rossmann as the company’s next CFO. Rossmann will succeed Christian Lown, who is stepping down to pursue an opportunity outside the company’s industry.
  • Goldman Sachs Group (GS) climbs 1.3% after posting $7.42 billion for a quarter with record-breaking stock-trading results, driven by financing and taking profit in arranging bets.
  • JPMorgan (JPM) falls 2% after the lender said it sees full year adjusted expenses at about $107.5 billion, previously seeing about $105 billion.
  • O-I Glass (OI) slips 3% after BofA cut its rating to underperform from buy, saying relative upside for the shares may lag due to volume weakness in glass packaging.
  • Trex (TREX) climbs 3% after the decking manufacturer’s second-quarter net sales forecast beat the average analyst estimate.

In other AI related developments Nvidia and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are looking to tie up on AI data center technologies, Nikkei reported, and Samsung is said to be in early discussions for a potential US share sale. Memory and chip stocks remain the core equity theme after investors poured $21 billion into ETFs last week, according to JPMorgan. In other corporate news, Brown-Forman President/CEO Lawson Whiting is set to step down once a successor is named. BP said it expects to write down another $1 billion from energy transition assets in the second quarter, as the British major continues the painstaking work of re-orientating itself toward its core oil and gas business. Apple falls in premarket trading after being cut to underweight from sector weight at KeyBanc, which expects weaker device demand and service revenue growth in the US.

Today’s event-filled calendar began with a mixed reaction to Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, as the banks were already priced to perfection, and despite blowout earnings, their stocks mostly dipped in premarket trading. June CPI data is expected to show some relief after inflation accelerated rapidly from March through May. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify before House members hours later.

“Geopolitics on the margin is a negative, but the oil price has not spiked dramatically,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm. “I expect Warsh will give a sort of data-driven speech rather than say too much about forward guidance. For us, it’s more about the inflation data.”

Warsh would probably prefer not to present this week’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, but “Congress isn’t inclined to let Warsh off the hook,” writes Bloomberg Senior US Economist Andrew Sacher, who outlines what to expect from Warsh’s appearances. 

In an escalation of the standoff between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships transiting the waterway and demanded a 20% reimbursement for all other cargo. US forces also completed another round of strikes against the Islamic Republic.

“We know the market can sustain far higher oil prices and US stocks keep rising,” said Alpesh Patel, managing partner at RootBridge Capital. “The only thing that matters is any indication rates are going to rise.”

Global investors buying stocks aggressively should consider reducing exposure with investor sentiment getting extremely bullish, according to the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, with positioning on US equities now at its highest level since December 2024 at a net 24% overweight, cash levels “uber-low” at 3.6%, and BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator now at the extreme bull reading of 9.

Overnight, China exports climbed 27% from a year earlier, exporting a record $412 billion worth of goods in June, blowing past all forecasts and turbocharged by a global investment supercycle in AI.

In a sign of confidence that the artificial-intelligence buildout will keep on fueling demand for chips, people familiar said Samsung Electronics is exploring a potential offering of ADR, similar to SK Hynix, in hopes of top ticking the memory bubble. Semiconductor stocks bounced in early US trading after Monday’s rout. “This suggests that the Nasdaq could break its short-term negative correlation with the oil price, and rise alongside energy prices if this continues,” wrote Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slid 0.4%, having dodged the weakness in tech stocks on Monday, is falling 0.6% with a drag from the media, travel and consumer sectors. Ericsson AB’s shares fell as much as 10% after warning that margins in its main networks business will come under pressure. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Mycronic shares gain as much as 14% to hit a record high as earnings from the Swedish electronics equipment group beat forecasts. DNB described the report as “impressive”
  • BP shares surged as much as 3.3% to touch a one-month high as Jefferies noted that the oil major’s net debt estimates for the second quarter had undershot expectations
  • Allegro climbs as much as 6.5% to highest since 2022 after the Polish e-commerce company reported strong preliminary 1H results and indicated it may raise its full-year outlook
  • Salzgitter shares rise as much as 7.4% as Jefferies upgrades its rating on the steel producer to buy from hold, citing benefits from EU steel quotas
  • Hapag-Lloyd shares rise as much as 8.2% in Frankfurt after the German container shipper boosted its Ebitda forecast for the year
  • Genus shares rise as much as 14%, the most in about six months, after the animal genetics specialist said it now sees full-year profit ahead of market expectations
  • Ericsson shares fall as much as 10% after the Swedish mobile networks and technology group said margins for its key Networks division will come under pressure in the second half of 2026, overshadowing otherwise in-line figures
  • IntegraFin shares fall as much as 5.4%, the most in nearly two months, as the investment platform sees third-quarter flows come in slightly below some analysts’ expectations
  • Norske Skog falls as much as 18%, the most since February 2025, after the Norwegian paper and forestry firm reported its latest earnings, which included misses on total operating income and Ebitda
  • Norion Bank falls as much as 13%, the most since February, after the Swedish banking group reported weak second-quarter earnings. SB1 Markets points to an underlying miss in net interest income and higher costs

Asian stocks reversed earlier losses as South Korean memory chipmakers rebounded in late trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% after falling as much as 1.6% earlier in the session. Samsung was the biggest boost to the index amid news the company was in early discussion for a potential share sale in the US. SK Hynix also erased an early plunge, helping to lift the Kospi gauge. The movements in Korea’s memory chip stocks underscore the extreme volatility gripping some of the world’s biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom. Japan’s Topix rose as investors looked for opportunities in non-tech sectors that have lagged the broader market. Taiwan’s Taiex index dropped 1.4% to its lowest in more than two weeks.

The “recent volatility indicates you are starting to build two camps — one remains very optimistic, whereas you have a growing group that question the sustainability,” said Mattias Martinsson, chief investment officer at Tundra Fonder AB. “That creates a tug of war, from day to day, which has very little to do with geopolitical events. For today the optimists have the upper hand.”

In rates, treasuries are little changed after retreating from session highs reached as oil extended its climb, with investors awaiting testimony by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and June CPI report. US 10-year yield near 4.62% outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 4bp following retreat from 4.634%, highest since May 20; curve spreads are also little changed. 2- and 5-year tenors reached new YTD yield highs. Around 11bp of Fed tightening is priced in for the July policy meeting following Monday’s increase on hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.  Money markets see at least one Bank of England and one European Central Bank rate hike this year, while leaning strongly toward a second in December. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Monday saw a combined $6.7 billion priced as issuers paid about 2.7 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 5.5 times covered.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down by 0.2% and moves across currency markets remain relatively muted.

In commodities, Brent extended its gain to $86/barrel on the new US blockade of Hormuz is driving more rate-hike bets from traders and rippling across the short-end of European bond markets.  WTI crude oil futures are up about 3%, off session highs reached as the truce between the US and Iran collapsed following fresh attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold is gaining to move back above $4,000/oz. 

The US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), June CPI (8:30am) and May TIC flows (4pm), Fed calendar includes Warsh’s testimony on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services at 10am. Also scheduled to speak are Governor Barr (12:40pm), Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (1pm) and Governors Cook (1:30pm) and Bowman (2:55pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump formally notified lawmakers this weekend that the nation is once again at war with Iran, giving his administration another 60-day clock to use the military in the region without congressional approval. Politico
  • Brent topped $86 as Donald Trump said he would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at 4 p.m. ET today. BBG
  • For decades, OPEC influenced the market by how much oil it produced. But China, the largest importer, is demonstrating its remarkable power over prices. Typically the world’s largest oil importer, China slashed purchases this spring, reducing demand so much that it prevented oil prices from soaring even higher earlier in the war. WSJ
  • Trump plans to back a Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Lindsey Graham, a person familiar said. His support would be a major win for Ukraine’s push to punish buyers of Moscow oil and gas. BBG
  • China’s exports surged in June, buoyed by orders for chips to fuel the global AI boom and automobiles, deepening producers’ reliance on overseas buyers as policymakers in the world’s No. 2 economy continue to grapple with ‌how to boost demand at home. The stronger-than-expected trade performance keeps China on track to post a surplus topping $1 trillion for a second straight year, with factories sustaining sales despite slowing growth in major economies and trade frictions with Washington. RTRS
  • Japanese policymakers on Tuesday flagged the possibility of changes to the asset allocation of the ‌nation’s giant state pension funds, though they offered no clues on the timing or scale of any shift. RTRS
  • Over the past year, the Trump administration has made deals to acquire equity stakes in more than two dozen firms, an unusual practice that extended the government’s influence over industries including semis, nuclear energy, minerals, and quantum computers and steel. AI execs are increasingly wondering if they will be next. NYT
  • Gov. Kathy Hochul is banning large data-center construction for up to a year, making New York the latest state to confront the rollout of sites powering the artificial-intelligence boom. The move responds to concerns over power costs, water supplies and community impacts as states consider limits on AI infrastructure’s effects on electricity grids and utility bills. WSJ
  • As Warsh prepares to face Congress, traders now see a US rate hike later this month as a coin toss. Money-market pricing suggests traders boosted their wagers for a July increase to almost 50% after yesterday’s strikes on Iran. BBG
  • US House will vote today on merging the SAVE America Act with a national security and State Department funding bill: Fox 
  • Trump said they’re looking into whether Cuba is storing Iranian drones, while he added that they will take care of it if Cuba has Iranian drones.
  • CPI Preview: Goldaman expects a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.76% (vs. +2.9% consensus). The bank expects a 0.11% decline in headline CPI (vs. -0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. The forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in June, reflecting another large increase in its financial services component. 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the red following the weak lead from the US, where risk sentiment was weighed on by tech selling and geopolitical escalation, while US-Iran strikes persisted for the third consecutive night and Trump announced to reinstate the naval blockade on Iran, as well as touted a 20% Hormuz shipping fee. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in tech, industrials, consumer staples and financials, but with the downside stemmed by resilience in energy and utilities, while there was also an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Nikkei 225 initially dropped below the 67,000 level amid tech weakness and higher oil prices, but then gradually nursed its losses and returned to flat territory as domestic yields softened. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the tech-related weakness and ultimately failed to benefit from the better-than-expected Chinese trade data.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama suggested it is time to consider including JGBs in NISAs, and stated that if the environment surrounding asset management changes sharply, a change to GPIF’s portfolio could be examined, while she hopes to quickly establish details on steps to make Japanese government bonds more attractive.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) are lower across the board after Monday’s choppy trade. Escalating US-Iran tensions return as a headwind for Europe, with energy prices rising, weighing on many of the continent’s biggest industries (airlines, luxury). European sectors highlight the negative bias. Basic Resources (+1.3%) and Energy (+1.2%) are printing decent gains, while Utilities (+0.3%) and Chemicals (+0.2%) also trade in the green. To the downside is Travel & Leisure (-2.1%), Media (-2.0%), and Consumer Products & Services (-1.9%).

Top European News

  • EU Commission approved EUR 659mln German State aid for four new semiconductor facilities.
  • German Wholesale Prices MoM (Jun) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.6%).
  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.4%).

FX

  • G10s are mostly firmer as markets are reluctant to buy Dollars into US CPI, after it gained on Monday. Kiwi is the clear outperformer; energy exporters CAD and NOK also perform well.
  • Geopolitics remain constructive for USD with Brent over USD 85/bbl, in addition to this, hawkish Fed speak from Waller saw markets assign a 50% probability of a Fed hike this month. (“Fed would need to consider a rate hike in the near term if core inflation is hot this week”). Despite these factors, the Buck is negative on the day as it stabilises below Monday’s 101.32 peak ahead of a packed session which is slated to see US CPI, and Warsh’s testimony to the US house which potentially sees a text release at 13:30 BST. The level to watch if momentum continues today is the 21DMA @ 101.00, should CPI come in hot, Monday’s 101.32 peak will be in focus, thereafter is July 2nd’s 101.43 high.
  • Kiwi is the best performer once again as markets add to RBNZ tightening bets, interest rate futures now implying 58bps by year-end – around 5bps added vs. the end of Monday’s London session. Upside which comes after hawkish remarks from RBNZ’s Conway and a strong quarterly NZIER Business Confidence.

Fixed Income

  • US and Iran continued to strike each other for a third night, after President Trump warned that they would hit Iran “very hard”. POTUS also announced a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, which is set to begin at 21:00 BST / 16:00 EDT.
  • Crude benchmarks were firmer throughout the APAC session, though price action was more-or-less sideways. Into the European morning, the bias turned a bit more bullish after the UKMTO reported another incident on a tanker near Oman. This comes after two Emirati tankers were struck overnight. It is clear that the IRGC will not accept any transits through undesignated paths through the Strait of Hormuz; as such, traffic through the Hormuz is waning. Marine Traffic data has shown that only two tankers completed passages through the Hormuz in the 24 hours up to 07:25 BST today; this compares to c. 28 ships/day following the US-Iran MoU signing.
  • As it becomes apparent that ships are no longer going through the Hormuz (and added risk of the blockade and/or nuclear attacks), the crude complex has moved higher. Brent Sep’26 (+3.7%) sits at the upper end of a USD 83.68-87.38/bbl range.
  • Spot gold is a little firmer this morning, and trades within a narrow USD 3,983-4,034/oz range; currently holding just above the USD 4k/oz mark. The yellow metal appears to be taking a breather following a couple of sessions in the red, which was spurred by recent geopolitical escalations and a hawkish Fed speak via Waller. Elsewhere, base metals hold a positive bias following stronger-than-expected Chinese data overnight. In brief, Exports and Imports both rose from the prior, and by more than the consensus. 3M LME Copper holds within a USD 13,461-13,624/t range.
  • Germany sells EUR 4.222bln vs exp. EUR 6.0bln 2.70% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.13x, average yield 2.77%, retention 29.63%.
  • Japan sells JPY 530.9bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 4.52x (prev. 2.97), average yield 3.626% (prev. 3.542%), Tail in price 0.00 (prev. 0.24).
  • The Netherlands sells EUR 3.27bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 2.50% Jan 2031 DSL: Average yield 2.911% (prev. 2.795%).
  • Australia sells AUD 400mln 5.00% June 2036 bonds b/c 4.1, avg yield 4.908%.

Commodities

  • A bearish start for benchmarks as the complex reacts to the overnight energy move.
  • Action that was sufficient to push Bunds below the 125.00 handle and to a 124.82 base, lower by just over 40 ticks on the day. Since, no real reaction to the morning’s updates, including a UKMTO tanker report in Oman, despite modest energy upside at the time.
  • For Germany, June’s WPI was dictated by energy, with the Y/Y moderating from the prior but at an elevated level as mineral oil products were just under 22% higher vs June 2025. However, the same component was down 6.8% M/M, leading to a -0.7% headline M/M print (exp. 0.5%, prev. -0.6%). No move to the series.
  • Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks before extending below the 87.00 handle, and then moving sharply lower to an 86.42 base, catching up to the above and continuing the pattern of greater magnitudes of action vs peers on energy-related moves. Pressure may also be a function of pricing into the Burnham coronation on Friday, as he will become UK PM from the point Starmer formally hands over. On that, Rathbones has reduced its Gilts holding in order to protect against “fiscal irresponsibility” ahead of Burnham and the Chancellor decision. Note, likely outgoing Chancellor Reeves speaks at Mansion House this evening.
  • USTs also lower, down to a 108-17 trough given the energy move, which has seen a modest extension on the pressure after Fed’s Waller on Monday evening said another hot core inflation read would mean the Fed needs to consider a near-term hike. CPI today is seen at -0.1% M/M (prev. 0.5%), while the now even more pertinent core is seen at 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.2%). Following Waller and the recent energy moves, pricing for July has moved in favour of a hike, with around a 60% chance of a 25bps move currently implied. We now look to testimony from Chair Warsh, which is scheduled for after CPI; note, a text release alongside CPI is possible.
  • BP (BP/ LN) says upstream production is expected to be between 2,170-2,220mboepd (prev. 2,339mboepd Q/Q), due to seasonal maintenance predominantly in the Gulf of America and the effects of disruption in the Middle East.
  • Pakistan LNG is reportedly seeking an additional LNG cargo for July as US-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz constrain supplies from Qatar, according to Bloomberg.
  • Turkey’s energy minister said Iraq requested retaining oil export capacity of 750K BPD through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline for 12 months under an agreement.
  • Iran’s Oil Minister Paknejad said Iran’s oil exports continue as usual despite the US removal of oil waivers.
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Indonesia unit is targeting 2026 copper production of 0.8bln pounds.

Central Banks

  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said the Middle East conflict complicates monetary policy like all supply shocks, while he added that understanding how firms respond to cost shocks is crucial in maintaining low and stable inflation. Furthermore, he said that despite easing prices, the effects of the shock are expected to continue impacting the economy for some time, and that a further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required.
  • BoE Governor Bailey said that the core banking system in the UK is resilient and that debt levels are not stretched. He stated that renewed hostilities in the Gulf underline continuing instability. The UK’s position is supported by its fiscal framework as well as monetary policy.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • US President Trump reiterated that Iran has no air force, no navy and no military, while he said they will hit Iran very hard on Monday night and on Tuesday. Trump said they had a deal yesterday and that Iran breaks deals, as well as commented that the MoU was built to test Iran and that Iran didn’t honour it. Trump also stated that they will hit ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ pretty soon and have their eyes on the site all the time, which is a good potential target
  • US Central Command announced that it conducted and completed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with US strikes reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, while explosions were also reported in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Kish Island. More recently, there have been reports of explosions have been heard near Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Choghadak.
  • Details of US President Trump’s proposed Strait of Hormuz toll plan are still being finalised, according to Semafor, saying Trump is ‘very serious about the tolls.
  • Iran’s armed forces have begun targeting US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with cruise missiles, Al Mayadeen reported.
  • Iranian Army Spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not be open with US aggressions and war, SNN reported.
  • IRGC said it targeted weapons warehouses, satellite communications centres, and US forces’ housing building at Bahrain’s Juffair base. Iran’s army also targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, as well as targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles, while it was separately reported that a US military base in Jordan was hit by a missile attack and that a missile attack hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition group site east of Iraq’s Erbil.
  • UKMTO received a report that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile 40NM northeast of Qalhat, Oman. UKMTO reports of an incident 13NM southeast of Lima, Oman, the tanker was reportedly hit by a missile transiting outbound on the southern route
  • The UAE Defence Ministry reported that two national tankers were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern Strait of Hormuz, with the incident occurring in Omani territorial waters, although the fires on both tankers were brought under control, and it reserved the right to respond to the escalation.
  • ADNOC confirmed tankers “Al Bahyah” and “Mombasa B” were hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Oman’s Foreign Minister said complex talks are under way to make a long-term arrangement to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russian ballistic missiles targeted Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, with sirens and explosions heard across the Ukrainian capital, according to FT.
  • Russian forces conducted group strikes at night, damaging military industry and enterprises involved in missile production in Kyiv, while it damaged infrastructure facilities in Odessa, used to store Ukrainian armed forces’ fuel and lubricants.
  • Ukraine Navy spokesperson said Russia struck a civilian vessel near Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa. Additionally, Ukraine said it struck two Russian oil refineries in the Bashkortostan and Krasnodar regions.

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 95.7, prior 95.3
  • 8:30 am: Jun CPI MoM, est. -0.11%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30 am: Jun Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: Jun CPI YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 4.2%
  • 8:30 am: Jun Core CPI YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
  • 4:00 pm: May Total Net TIC Flows, prior 26.1b
  • 4:00 pm: May Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 103.1b

Central Bank Speakers

  • 10:00 am: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies at House Financial Services Cmte.
  • 12:40 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Artificial Intelligence
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee in Fireside Chat
  • 1:30 pm: Fed’s Cook Speaks at Conference on Financial Inclusion
  • 2:55 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Conference on FInancial Inclusion

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The most striking financial market takeaway is the extraordinary shift in Japan’s relative affordability over the past decade and a half. When we launched the series in 2012, Japan was one of the most expensive countries in the world, while the US sat towards the cheaper end of the spectrum. Today, that picture has completely reversed. Tokyo is now the cheapest city in the world in which to buy an iPhone, you can almost get two dates there for the price of one in London, enjoy three meals out for the cost of one in Zurich or New York, and buy property at a fraction of the prices seen in New York, Hong Kong and London. With Japan’s PPP-implied price level falling from 125 in 2012 to just 60 today, the report poses an intriguing question: if reading the 2012 edition would have encouraged you to buy America, should reading the 2026 edition make you take a fresh look at Japan? Tens of thousands of data points have been analysed to compare relative prices across 69 cities that matter to global financial markets. Click here to see where your city ranks on everything from everyday prices to overall quality of life and click now to get ahead of the 45,000 readers who might already be planning next year’s bargain holiday. Tokyo, perhaps?

Staying in Asia, markets are again weak this morning on the back of the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the softening sentiment towards the AI trade. Oil is up just under another couple of percentage points this morning having been up around 9% yesterday. More on that below. The KOSPI (-0.02%) has actually fought all the way back to flat after being down -5% an hour ago when I started work on this. It might still be an hour until you read this so you may want to check yourselves. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.25%) has been much less volatile but has also been recovering while I type. The Hang Seng (-0.47%), the CSI 300 (-0.39%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.66%) are also lower. S&P 500 (-0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 futures (flat) have also been recovering as the overnight session has progressed but with Stoxx (-0.6%) futures still lower. 

Today we have a huge day with US CPI, Warsh’s testimony to the House and the unofficial start of Q2 US earnings season with 5 big banks reporting.   

Ahead of this and all the overnight moves, the big story yesterday was the latest jump in oil prices, which revived fears around stagflation, and hit bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic. That followed further strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend, which meant Brent crude (+9.59%) saw its sharpest rise since March 2020, reaching a 4-week high of $83.30/bbl by the close. Moreover, yesterday saw a fresh escalation in the rhetoric, with Trump saying that “We’re taking over the Strait”, before announcing that the US was reinstating an “Iranian blockade”, which Trump said was “so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait.” He also said that the US would “be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World.” I asked AI how much that could raise if you assumed pre-war volumes. It came back with a figure of around $400-500m a day based on $2-2.5bn of daily cargo passing through the Strait.

President Trump has a habit of starting with an extreme negotiating position so no doubt this would come down if it was ever implemented, but the very spectre of tolls will make markets and customers nervous. US Central Command said that it will resume the Iran blockade at 4pm NY time today, so that still leaves a bit of time for a possible climbdown. Yesterday’s mood out of the Middle East also wasn’t helped by escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels, with the latter targeting a Saudi airport after the Saudi-backed Yemen government carried out strikes against Sanaa airport.

The escalation over Hormuz saw inflation concerns creep back into play yesterday, with investors pricing in more rate hikes from central banks. For instance, pricing of a Fed hike in just a couple of weeks’ time jumped from 34% to 43% yesterday and the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting was up +5.4bps on the day to 43bps. The Fed repricing was also supported by some hawkish comments from Governor Waller, who kept the door open to an imminent hike, saying that “If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term”. Similarly for the ECB, the number of hikes priced by December was up +10.5bps on the day to 44bps, so it was clear that higher oil prices were shifting market pricing in a hawkish direction.

This backdrop also had a clear effect on sovereign bond yields, which continued to move higher on both sides of the Atlantic. So for US Treasuries, the 2yr yield (+7.6bps) closed at a 16-month high of 4.28%. And notably, the 2yr real yield (+2.2bps) closed at 2.23%, which was its highest closing level in almost two years. Meanwhile the 10yr yield (+6.3bps) was also up to 4.62%, marking its highest level in nearly two months, and the 10yr real yield (+3.6bps) closed at 2.34%, its highest since 2023. And over in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+4.3bps), OATs (+5.5bps) and BTPs (+7.0bps) all moved higher as well.

Looking forward, the question of Fed rate hikes will be in focus today, as we’ll get the US CPI print for June at 13:30 London time. This is a significant one, because market pricing for the next Fed meeting is still in the balance, so any surprises could easily push that in either direction. In terms of what to look out for, the recent decline in gas prices means our US economists expect headline CPI to come in negative for June, with a monthly price decline of -0.16%. So if realised, that would take the year-on-year rate down to +3.8%. But core CPI is expected to still be more resilient at a monthly +0.23%, with the year-on-year rate at +2.8%. 

Whilst the CPI print will be the initial focus, attention will then shortly turn over to Fed Chair Warsh, who’s testifying before the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 London time. That’s part of the regular semi-annual testimony from the Fed Chair, with the Senate Banking Committee hearing taking place tomorrow as well. But our US economists expect him to remain reticent about providing guidance for any upcoming policy action and remember that Warsh was the one official who didn’t submit a dot in the most recent dot plot.

Whilst sovereign bonds were struggling, it was also a rough day for equities as the rise in oil prices coincided with a fresh slump for chip stocks.  The Philly semiconductor index (-4.78%) fell back sharply, with the NASDAQ (-1.55%) also pulling back. And in turn, that slump for tech stocks dragged on the S&P 500 (-0.79%), with the index posting a sizeable decline despite most of its constituents rising on the day. Meanwhile in Europe, equities put in a relatively better performance, given the region’s comparatively smaller concentration of chip stocks and as European markets closed before the full rise in oil prices, with the STOXX 600 only down -0.01%.

Finally, China’s latest trade data surprised to the upside overnight, with both exports and imports growing significantly faster than expected in June. Strong global demand for AI-related products and technology goods helped offset increasing geopolitical pressures. Exports rose 27.0% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 19.0% and accelerating from May’s 19.4% growth. Imports increased 36.0%, well above the forecast of 26.1% and stronger than the previous month’s 27.4% rise. As a result, China’s trade surplus widened to $125.62 billion in June from $105.43 billion in May, exceeding market expectations of $120.10 billion.

Looking at the day ahead, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for June. Otherwise, Fed Chair Warsh will be speaking before the House Financial Services committee, and we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee, Cook and Bowman, along with BoE Governor Bailey. Finally, today’s earnings releases include JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 08:24

KeyBanc Downgrades Apple On New Growth Slowdown Fears

KeyBanc Downgrades Apple On New Growth Slowdown Fears

Apple shares fell 1% in premarket trading after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the iPhone maker to “Underweight” from “Sector Weight” and set a 12-month price target of $250. This implies roughly a 21% decline from Monday’s close, putting the stock in bear-market territory.

The downgrade by KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh is based on a widening disconnect between Apple’s valuation and its underlying growth outlook. They cite soaring memory chip prices, which are pushing iPhone, Mac, and iPad prices higher. This increases the risk of demand destruction, slower unit sales, and a softer upgrade cycle.

At roughly 35 times forward earnings, Nispel warned that Apple’s valuation leaves little room for a slowdown:

We downgrade AAPL to Underweight ($250PT; 19x ’27 EV/EBITDA, 27.5x PE).

Our KFLD shows Indexed Spending -2% m/m, which is below the three-year avg of +9% m/m, another month of below-trend growth.

We think expectations NT are reasonable though we see: 1) slowing iPhone builds with price increases, weak U.S. upgrades, and changing device subsidy models; 2) ’27 expectations that likely need to move lower for Mac, iPad, and Wearables; and 3) as unit growth likely slows, so will the growth in Apple’s user base, likely pressuring Services. At 35x PE, we think AAPL is too expensive for this to occur

In mid-June, Apple CEO Tim Cook told the WSJ in an exclusive interview that price hikes were “unavoidable” because of the memory chip crunch.

While Apple doesn’t report gross profit margins for individual products, TechInsights research suggests the margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was a tidy 47%. Based on estimated costs, to maintain that profit margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, the company would have to charge $1,371. Because the company likes standardized pricing, the starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit.

Source: WSJ

And this calculation doesn’t account for a potential new camera system that will also cost Apple about 50% more than previous models, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In that case, following the same math, Apple could set the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,399, or higher.

KeyBanc’s view that consumers may push back on an upgrade cycle because of rising device prices – due in part to the memory chip crunch – is not the best news ahead of the iPhone 18 Pro and foldable iPhone launches in September.

Professional subscribers can read more commentary at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 08:20

Megacities Are Booming

Megacities Are Booming

The number of people living in megacities has been growing significantly for decades, rising from 2.5 percent in 1950 to 16.4 percent of city dwellers in 2020.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reportsaccording to UN projections, this figure will continue to rise slightly before stabilizing at around the current level by 2050. At the same time, living in smaller cities is becoming less widespread.

The share of the urban population living in places with between 50,000 and 500,000 inhabitants fell from 50.8 percent to 38.6 percent during the same period.

Infographic: Megacities Are Booming | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

This development reflects the global trend of urbanization. Economic opportunities, better infrastructure and in some cases political instability in the countryside have been driving the growth of large metropolitan areas.

However, this increasing concentration has also been exacerbating challenges that are typical for urban centers, for example housing shortages, overcrowded transport and an increased strain on the environment.

Another challenge for city planners are so-called heat islands, where urban concrete jungles act as heat reservoirs and exhibit much higher temperatures than less dense areas with more vegetation and other natural features. The prevalence of tall buildings and narrow streets can also reduce wind speeds, meaning it takes longer for accumulated heat to dissipate. This additional heat stress, combined with the higher levels of air pollution observed in many cities, compounds negative impacts on human health.

However, the UN anticipates that the growth of the largest cities will slow down in the future. While the share of city dwellers living in megacities is expected to rise to 17 percent by 2030, it is then projected to stagnate and decline slightly by 2050 to 16.3 percent. At the same time, the development of medium-sized cities – those with populations of 5 to 10 million – is expected to speed up, hosting a share of 10.6 percent of city inhabitants by 2050.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 06:55

The Digital Euro: Control & The End Of Financial Privacy

The Digital Euro: Control & The End Of Financial Privacy

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

European Union lawmakers in Strasbourg have now agreed on their position regarding the digital euro, approving it in a vote on the 8th of July 2026. With this position, the European Parliament can start talks with national governments on the details of the design and functioning of the digital euro. 

The ECB argues that the digital euro is required to preserve the benefits of cash in a digital age and protect Europe’s monetary sovereignty, while offering a fast, secure, widely accepted public means of payment. However, it is not a neutral or purely technological upgrade to Europe’s payments infrastructure. It is a political and technological project that may embed surveillance, monetary control, and fiscal dominance into the very structure of the currency.

EU lawmakers are now debating the regulation that will define the legal status, privacy framework, and holding limits of the digital euro, with the ECB openly lobbying for strong legislation to support what it calls a collective step forward for Europe. This means the most significant features, including programmability, limits, data access, and the role of commercial banks, will be decided in Brussels and Strasbourg rather than by markets or citizen demand. 

The ECB sells the digital euro on four main promises: more efficient payments, greater monetary sovereignty, financial inclusion, and higher privacy than current private electronic payment systems. Not one of those claims holds up once you look at them, even briefly. 

Let us go one by one. 

Efficiency and universal acceptance. Europe already has instant payments, multiple card schemes, and a dense network of private providers that allow fast, cheap, electronic transactions across the euro area and internationally. There is no evidence that adding a centralized, programmable central bank account for every citizen solves a problem that existing infrastructure cannot address through open competition, decentralized independent options, and innovation. 

Monetary sovereignty and autonomy. The ECB claims that a digital euro is essential to maintain the autonomy of the monetary system and reduce dependence on non‑European providers. This makes little sense at a time when the euro’s role as the second world reserve currency is widely accepted, demand for euro assets is strong, and there are already various private and independent projects that successfully compete with non‑European providers. A currency’s role as a reserve asset and the success of domestic payment systems versus international alternatives are achieved not through imposition but through the confidence and demand of citizens and businesses. 

If the European Central Bank truly wanted to preserve the purchasing power and credibility of the euro, it would not need legal privileges or a mandated digital form to remain globally relevant. Resorting to a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is an admission of weakness, not of strength. 

Financial inclusion. Retail CBDCs are presented as free, basic‑use tools for the unbanked. However, in Europe, financial exclusion is driven more by regulation, taxation, and economic stagnation than by a lack of digital payment options. Imposing a centralised, identity‑linked wallet does nothing to tackle those structural barriers. Moreover, financial inclusion does not require a digital ID and a centralized central bank account; it requires more competition and decentralized private options. 

More private than commercial solutions. The ECB promises a high level of privacy, with allegedly anonymous data despite a required digital ID and offline payments that are supposed to be close to cash. However, the architecture of a programmable, centrally controlled CBDC, governed by a central bank that openly incorporates political objectives into its policy toolkit, means that every transaction is, by design, potentially subject to surveillance and even sanctions. 

If the main objectives were efficiency, competition, and technological progress, regulators would strengthen independent, decentralized solutions, independent payment providers, and open standards rather than concentrate the entire monetary transmission mechanism inside a single public institution. If the ECB believes all Europeans should be able to choose the digital euro, it only needs to issue it widely and let citizens decide, instead of forcing it. 

Monetary sovereignty is not achieved by coercion but by freedom and rising demand. The euro is not at risk of losing its status as a reserve currency unless the objective is to destroy the purchasing power of money and force people to use it regardless. 

The excuse used by the ECB and defenders of the digital euro, pointing to the “lost opportunity” of billions of euros invested in the United States instead of the European Union, makes no sense. European investors choose to invest globally, and if all funds do not remain in the European Union, it is a consequence of stagnation, excessive regulation, and a lack of opportunities. Furthermore, the ECB cannot expect to sustain a world reserve currency if most of the money it issues is destined to be used only domestically. That, in itself, undermines reserve‑currency status. 

The risk of using monetary policy to inflate government spending even more than today becomes central. Monetary policy will not restrain government excess; it will enable it even more than it does now, with deposit savers and prudent investors as the main losers. 

A central bank digital currency is not just electronic money. The main difference between today’s electronic money and a central bank digital euro is not digitization but control. 

Under the current system, deposits sit at commercial banks, which act as intermediaries, absorb risk, and preserve a degree of separation between monetary authorities and individual transactions, even within regulatory and legal limits. With a retail CBDC, your main account will effectively sit at the central bank. That opens three dangerous channels of power. 

Central banks will obtain direct, real‑time access to almost all transactions, eliminating the remaining financial privacy that cash and bank intermediation still provide. When every payment is registered in a central system, authorities can monitor patterns, flag undesirable behaviour, and build profiles far beyond legitimate law‑enforcement needs. 

Programmability is a key concern in the architecture. CBDCs can be designed as programmable money, allowing authorities to increase or reduce balances, restrict where and on what funds can be spent, and impose expiry dates or penalties for behaviour deemed harmful, from “excessive” fuel consumption to politically unpopular spending.

This is not speculation. The ECB itself emphasises programmability as a way to make monetary policy transmission more fluid, which means faster inflation creation and quicker elimination of liquidity when central planners decide they may have overstimulated the economy. With the elimination of commercial‑bank and credit‑demand backstops, central banks can inject liquidity directly into retail accounts, completely merging monetary and fiscal policy. This removes the limits that bank lending and market discipline impose on government deficits, turning the currency into a tool of fast and largely unchecked budget financing. 

In such a framework, a digital euro does not strengthen the currency; it tries to impose it. That is why the ECB insists that authorities must enforce its use through regulation, tax mandates, and legal‑tender rules. 

European commercial banks are rightly alarmed by the prospect of a risk‑free digital euro account at the ECB competing with deposits, which would effectively turn banks into even more dependent subsidiaries of the central bank. 

Lawmakers and supervisors already discuss individual holding caps of around 3,000 euros per person to limit the outflow from bank balance sheets, but this number is political, not economic, and can be revised at will. Even with caps, the presence of a central‑bank‑imposed alternative to deposits will weaken funding stability, raise funding costs, and push banks further into a marginal role in credit creation. 

This has significant consequences. 

The clearest is the crowding out of private credit. As deposits flow to the central bank and regulation favours this form of state money, banks’ ability to lend to families and businesses declines, while the safest and cheapest option remains financing governments. That accelerates the already clear bias toward public‑sector expansion at the expense of the productive private economy. 

Today, inflationary episodes are at least filtered through bank risk appetite and credit demand. A digital euro allows the central bank to expand or contract the money supply directly in household and corporate wallets, eliminating essential limits and turning the currency into a pure instrument of political priorities, climate agendas, industrial policy, or social engineering. On top of that, the very programming architecture creates a perverse incentive that penalizes prudent deposit saving and conservative investment. 

A complete misunderstanding of money has damaged the entire mechanism. It treats deposit savings as “unused money” when, in reality, all deposits are invested, and it sees foreign investment of euro funds as a negative rather than recognising that global, open, and free deployment of the currency is precisely what underpins its reserve status. 

Formal independence and privacy laws are weak safeguards when the institution has already bowed repeatedly to political pressure to finance expanding states and tolerate persistent inflation. A CBDC amplifies this problem by adding the risk of social control to macro‑level monetary manipulation. 

The result is a currency that is easier to use, harder to escape, and more vulnerable to discretionary political control. 

If European policymakers genuinely wanted a stronger, trusted euro, their project would be completely different. They would promote decentralized and competitive payment systems, allowing independent providers, banks, and fintechs to innovate without being subordinated to a centralized, politically designed CBDC. They would focus on restoring the euro’s function as a store of value by ending the monetization of persistent fiscal deficits, rather than embedding those deficits into a programmable currency. And they would protect cash and private electronic money as essential tools of financial privacy and individual freedom, not as inconvenient relics to be eliminated. 

The announced contracts with large technology firms and an aggressive legislative agenda suggest the true objective is to build the infrastructure for future social control, political engineering, and direct fiscal monetization. Surveillance disguised as money.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 06:30