It’s not just today’s cooler than expected CPI print that is sending stocks soaring, the S&P up 4.2% at last check, its biggest increase since April 2020: amid today’s barrage of Fed speakers.

• 09:00: Fed’s Harker Discusses The Economic Outlook
• 09:35: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Energy and the Economy Conference
• 11:00: Fed’s Daly Speaks with European Economics & Financial Center
• 12:30: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook
• 13:30: Fed’s George Speaks at Energy and the Economy Conference

… the first two have already come out with decidedly more dovish jawboning, echoing last week’s Fed statement (if not Powell’s far more hawkish presser).

The first was Philly Fed president Patrick Harker who said Thursday that the U.S. central bank is approaching a point where it may be able to moderate the pace of its rate rise campaign aimed at lowering too high levels of inflation.

“In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance,” Harker said in a speech text. But he added that moving from what had been 75 basis point increases to something like a half percentage point rise would still be significant action.

Harker added, “at some point next year, I expect we will hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work” as more expensive borrowing costs impact the economy. The central banker said what happens after that will be driven by the data and added “if we have to, we can always tighten further, based on the data.” Or, alternatively, the Fed will have just another 100bps more of rate hikes because as shown earlier, the terminal rate had slumped below 5% and now anticipates about 1% more in rate hikes before the Fed ends its tightening campaign.

Harker, who doesn’t hold a vote on the FOMC this year but will in 2023, laid out what it will take for him to call for a shift in monetary policy. “What we really need to see is a sustained decline in a number of inflation indicators before we let up on tightening monetary policy,” he said, adding “we need to make sure inflation expectations don’t become unanchored.”

To be sure, the Philly Fed president offered the token dose of hawkishness, but nothing the market hasn’t heard a thousand times already: in his remarks, Harker said there are signs the economy is slowing but he added “the job market continues to run extremely hot” and inflation “remains far, far too high.” Well, check back next month on the employment number – with midterms over, the BLS can finally tell the truth.

Harker said in his speech that he believes the U.S. GDP will be flat for this year, rise by 1.5% next year and 2% in 2024. Unemployment should rise from its current 3.7% level to 4.5% next year before falling to 4% in 2024. He said there’s evidence the Fed can lower inflation “without doing unnecessary damage to the labor market.”

As for inflation, he said inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which stood at 5.1% in September, should ease to 4.8% this year, 3.5% next year and 2.5% in 2024. The Fed’s target is 2%.

But far more important that non-voter Harker’s speech is what the former head of the PPT and current Dallas Fed president, Lorie Logan said after today’s CPI: speaking at a conference hosted by her bank in Houston on Thursday, she said that the Federal Reserve looked closer to moderating aggressive interest-rate increases after welcome news on inflation. More importantly, she emphasized that the Fed should start looking at financial conditions, a clear sign that the Fed is starting to pay attention not just to inflation and employment but how it’s actions are breaking the market. 

“While I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving, I also believe a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy,” Logan said adding that “this morning’s CPI data were a welcome relief, but there is still a long way to go,” she said. Not only is inflation far above the Fed’s 2% target, “but with aggregate demand continuing to outstrip supply, inflation has repeatedly come in higher than forecasters expected.”

“I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving,” Logan added even as she warned markets not to confuse a slower pace of monetary policy tightening with easier policy.

Last but not least, Powell’s own mouthpiece, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos said that “the October inflation report is likely to keep the Fed on track to approve a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase next month. Officials had already signaled they wanted to slow the pace of rises and were somewhat insensitive to near-term inflation data.”

Fed officials have signaled they would prefer to see evidence that inflation is moderating before they pause rate rises.

The hot August and September CPI prints restarted the clock on gathering a string of sequential moderations in inflation.

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 10, 2022

And in a subsequent tweet, Timiraos confirmed that the Fed’s attention is now turning to financial conditions:

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: The Fed must get inflation down but “we should also try, if we can, to avoid incurring costs that are higher than necessary.”

Financial conditions can eventually tighten in ways that aren’t linear. https://t.co/QHhA1k8FGs pic.twitter.com/o7nh3PkeXa

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 10, 2022

News of the better-than-expected CPI report sent bond yields plummeting and saw investors harden bets that the Fed would scale back the size of its next rate increase in December to 50 basis points, with rates peaking around 4.8% next year. And sure enough, odds of the December rate hike have collapsed to 0% after the CPI, while odds of a 50bps hike are now 100%.

What happens after December, will depend on next month’s jobs report. And if recent mass layoffs are any indication, not to mention that the midterms are now history, we are looking at a deeply payrolls negative number next month.

In his first words since the (alleged) ponzi fraud of FTX was exposed yesterday, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO and founder of FTX, has issued a lengthy tweet-thread to try to explain himself.

He begins: “I’m sorry. That’s the biggest thing… I fucked up, and should have done better.”

1) I’m sorry. That’s the biggest thing.

I fucked up, and should have done better.

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) November 10, 2022

And then goes on…

I also should have been communicating more very recently.

Transparently–my hands were tied during the duration of the possible Binance deal; I wasn’t particularly allowed to say much publicly. But of course it’s on me that we ended up there in the first place.

So here’s an update on where things are.

[THIS IS ALL ABOUT FTX INTERNATIONAL, THE NON-US EXCHANGE. FTX US USERS ARE FINE!]

[TREAT ALL OF THESE NUMBERS AS ROUGH. THERE ARE APPROXIMATIONS HERE.]

FTX International currently has a total market value of assets/collateral higher than client deposits (moves with prices!).

But that’s different from liquidity for delivery–as you can tell from the state of withdrawals. The liquidity varies widely, from very to very little.

The full story here is one I’m still fleshing out every detail of, but as a very high level, I fucked up twice.

The first time, a poor internal labeling of bank-related accounts meant that I was substantially off on my sense of users’ margin. I thought it was way lower.

My sense before:

• Leverage: 0x

• USD liquidity ready to deliver: 24x average daily withdrawals

Actual:

• Leverage: 1.7x

• Liquidity: 0.8x Sunday’s withdrawals

Because, of course, when it rains, it pours. We saw roughly $5b of withdrawals on Sunday–the largest by a huge margin.

And so I was off twice.

Which tells me a lot of things, both specifically and generally, that I was shit at.

And a third time, in not communicating enough. I should have said more. I’m sorry–I was slammed with things to do and didn’t give updates to you all.

And so we are where we are. Which sucks, and that’s on me.

I’m sorry.

Anyway: right now, my #1 priority–by far–is doing right by users.

And I’m going to do everything I can to do that. To take responsibility, and do what I can.

So, right now, we’re spending the week doing everything we can to raise liquidity.

I can’t make any promises about that. But I’m going to try. And give anything I have to if that will make it work.

There are a number of players who we are in talks with, LOIs, term sheets, etc.

We’ll see how that ends up.

Every penny of that–and of the existing collateral–will go straight to users, unless or until we’ve done right by them.

After that, investors–old and new–and employees who have fought for what’s right for their career, and who weren’t responsible for any of the fuck ups.

Because at the end of the day, I was CEO, which means that *I* was responsible for making sure that things went well. *I*, ultimately, should have been on top of everything.

I clearly failed in that. I’m sorry.

So, what does this mean going forward?

I’m not sure–that depends on what happens over the next week.

But here are some things I know.

First, one way or another, Alameda Research is winding down trading.

They aren’t doing any of the weird things that I see on Twitter–and nothing large at all. And one way or another, soon they won’t be trading on FTX anymore.

Second, in any scenario in which FTX continues operating, its first priority will be radical transparency–transparency it probably always should have been giving.

Giving as close to on-chain transparency as it can: so that people know *exactly* what is happening on it.

All of the stakeholders would have a hard look at FTX governance. I will not be around if I’m not wanted.

All of the stakeholders–investors, regulators, users–would have a large part to play in how it would be run.

Solely trust.

But all of that isn’t what matters right now–what matters right now is trying to do right by customers. That’s it.

A few other assorted comments:

This was about FTX International. FTX US, the US based exchange that accepts Americans, was not financially impacted by this shitshow.

It’s 100% liquid. Every user could fully withdraw (modulo gas fees etc).

Updates on its future coming.

At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner, so to speak.

But you know, glass houses. So for now, all I’ll say is:

well played; you won.

NOT ADVICE, OF ANY KIND, IN ANY WAY

I WAS NOT VERY CAREFUL WITH MY WORDS HERE, AND DO NOT MEAN ANY OF THEM IN A TECHNICAL OR LEGAL SENSE; I MAY WELL HAVE NOT DESCRIBED THINGS RIGHT though I’m trying to be transparent. I’M NOT A GOOD DEV AND PROBABLY MISDESCRIBED SOMETHING.

And, finally:

I sincerely apologize.

We’ll keep sharing updates as we have them. 

We are sure the likes of Tom Brady and Sequoia will forgive and forget this outright fraud… and we are also sure that all the Democrats who received funds from this man will return those fraudulently obtained funds to bear their ‘fair share’ for all Americans caught up in this scheme.

Meanwhile, the price of FTX Token is rising…

As rumors circulate that Tron founder Justin Sun may be the White Knight here…

Further to my announcement to stand behind all Tron token (#TRX, #BTT, #JST, #SUN, #HT) holders on #FTX, we are putting together a solution together with #FTX to initiate a pathway forward. @FTX_Official

— H.E. Justin Sun🌞🇬🇩🇩🇲🔥 (@justinsuntron) November 10, 2022

We wouldn’t hold our breaths.

Via SchiffGold.com,

With prices rising and real wages falling, many Americans are struggling to make ends meet. They are increasingly turning to credit cards and other debt to fill the gap. But that creates other problems. Debt has to be repaid and a growing number of Americans are struggling to keep up with payments.

Auto loan delinquencies have risen to the highest level in over 10 years, according to TransUnion.

TransUnion tracks more than 81 million auto loans in the United States. According to the consumer credit reporting agency, 1.65% of auto loans were at least 60 days delinquent in the third quarter. That is the highest rate for 60-day-plus delinquencies in more than a decade.

TransUnion senior vice-president Satyan Merchant told CNBC inflation was making it difficult for people to keep up with their car payments.

Consumers still want to stay current as best that they can. It’s just this inflationary environment is making it challenging. It leaves fewer dollars in their pocket to make the auto loan payment, because they’ve got to pay more for eggs and milk and other things.”

Unsurprisingly, subprime borrowers are having the most difficult time keeping up with their payments.

With loan-accommodation programs implemented during the pandemic, some borrowers managed to avoid delinquency. As those programs have ended, delinquencies have spiked. Merchant told CNBC that these programs pushed some delinquencies into the future.

According to TransUnion, 200,000 borrowers who took advantage of the pandemic-era auto loan accommodation programs are now listed as 60 days delinquent.

Like mortgage rates, auto loan rates have increased significantly since the Fed started pushing up rates to battle inflation. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans rose to 5.2% in Q3. Interest rates on used vehicle loans average 9.7%. Combined with the rising cost of both new and used vehicles, along with rising fuel prices, the cost of owning a car continues to rise dramatically.

Merchant told CNBC that a rise in unemployment would create a bigger jump in auto loan delinquencies.

If we get into a position where employment starts to be a challenge in the United States and unemployment increases, that is when the industry will really start to be concerned about a consumer’s ability to pay their auto loans.”

The Federal Reserve blew up an auto bubble with years of artificially low interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis. The air was coming out of that bubble as the Fed tightened interest rates in 2018. The Fed pivot in 2019 and then the return to zero percent interest rates during the pandemic gave pumped air back into the deflating bubble, but with the Fed now tightening monetary policy once again, the air appears to be seeping out.

This is another example of how the combination of inflation, rising interest rates, and a deteriorating economy is negatively impacting average Americans. We see the same dynamics popping up in other sectors, including housing. This flashes warning signals that things in the economy could deteriorate very quickly in the near future as this deterioration compounds and snowballs.

For now, American consumers are managing to limp along using credit and savings accumulated during the pandemic. But savings are quickly being depleted and debt has limits.

The cooler than expected CPI print sparked the somewhat expected chaos in markets as Fed rate trajectory expectations puked dovishly. Fed terminal rate has plunged back below 5.00% and subsequent rate-cut expectations are soaring…

December has now priced out any chance of a 75bps hike (50bps locked in)…

This fits the narrative…

The October inflation report is likely to keep the Fed on track to approve a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase next month

Officials had already signaled they wanted to slow the pace of rises and were somewhat insensitive to near-term inflation datahttps://t.co/jVTJvMkjg3

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 10, 2022

Stocks immediately exploded higher. Nasdaq is up over 4%…

Bond yields puked (10Y back below 4.00%)…

And the dollar plunged…

Which helped send Gold futures surging up to $1740 – its highest in 2 months…

Some are arguing this is the start of The Fed ‘pivot’…

⚠️ This is the start of the Fed pivot. The breadth of US CPI is down sharply and moving back to a level that isn’t showing ‘scary’ inflation. This is what matters for the Fed. One data point doesn’t make a trend… but chart below shows we’re moving in the right direction $USD pic.twitter.com/cRlc0vki7t

— Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) November 10, 2022

However, we are reminded of Powell’s press conference reversal and wonder how long before The Fed jawbones this financial condition easing impulse away?

It’s that time of the month again. The ‘most important’ CPI print in history, since the last ‘most important’ CPI print, is expected to show some moderation in October data (but remains at extremely high historical levels in both headline and core), and it did just that and then some:

The headline CPI printed far cooler than expected at +7.7% YoY (vs 7.9% exp) and down from the +8.2% in Sept. That is the lowest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose for the 29th straight month (on a MoM basis) but inched back off 40 year highs on a YoY basis, rising just +6.3% vs +6.5% exp…

Source: Bloomberg

Looking below the surface, Services CPI is now at its highest since 1982, rising faster than Goods CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

On a MoM basis, Goods costs fell, Services rose along with Food costs…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, Services inflation is countering any improvement in Goods costs…

But the rise in shelter CPI continues…

Source: Bloomberg

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.6-percent increase in September. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent in October, the largest monthly increase in that index since August 1990. The rent index rose 0.7 percent over the month, and the owners’ equivalent rent index rose 0.6 percent. The index for lodging away from home increased 4.9 percent in October, after declining 1.0 percent in September.  

The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy; other components were a mix of increases and declines. Among the indexes that rose in October was the index for motor vehicle insurance which rose 1.7 percent in October after rising 1.6 percent in September. The index for recreation rose 0.7 percent over the month, following a smaller 0.1percent increase in the previous month. The new vehicles index increased 0.4 percent in October, and the personal care index rose 0.5 percent.

Indeed, even as real-time rents are now sliding, Rent/Shelter inflation continues to soar…

• Rent Inflation 6.92%, highest on record, up from 6.59%
• Shelter inflation 7.52%, highest on record, up from 7.21%

The shelter index accounted for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy.

… but as a reminder, the very much delayed CPI OER number is set to to fall dramatically in coming months as it catches down to reality.

In contrast, and just as we previewed last night, the medical care index fell 0.5 percent in October after rising 0.8 percent in September. The index for hospital and related services decreased 0.2 percent over the month, and the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1 percent. The index for physicians’ services was unchanged in October. Last night we warned that health insurance CPI would tumble and boy did it – in fact it was the biggest driver behind today’s soft print.

Tomorrow’s health insurance CPI component set to plungehttps://t.co/YiCjUHFpz5 pic.twitter.com/59kTVlBu7k

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 10, 2022

Other indexes which declined over the month include the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 2.4 percent in October after decreasing 1.1 percent in September. The apparel index fell 0.7 percent over the month, after declining 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for airline fares fell 1.1 percent in October, following a 0.8-percent increase in September. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged over the month.

Core CPI (ex-shelter) fell 0.1% MoM -0 the first MoM decline since the COVID lockdown crisis….

Before the CPI print, the market was pricing a 30% chance of 75bps hike in Dec… and that has been crushed on this print…

Finally, for the 19th straight month Americans cost of living increased as real wages tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is odd because President Biden proclaimed earlier in the week that real wages in America are rising?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

A Plague on Both Your Houses

It’s Tybalt today, and for more than one reason. First, the midterm election results continue to dribble in. And dribble is the operative world. There was no Red Tsunami and no Red Wave. Moreover, once again many key races are again failing to be able to count small pieces of paper. Nevada says it might take until the end of NEXT week to be able to do so; Georgia will need to go through the whole thing again, again.

As things stand at the moment, the Republicans look set to take a very slight House majority, and have a reasonable chance of taking a slim Senate majority too. That would seem to deliver the gridlock markets were hoping to see, on the view that this means less fiscal policy and so less aggressive rates policy. However, it means much more than that.

If there was a key message from the election results it is that the US remains deeply divided, and yet very closely so, which is why so many races right across its huge geography were so tight. The second message is that everyone seems to be united in being unhappy with BOTH parties. Nobody is enthused about President Biden, who of course is now running again in 2024 (though of course we don’t mean literally given his age); or Trump and his oddballs; or the mainstream Republican sweater-vest wearers; or bland mainstream Democrats; or new Progressives. Many votes were cast ‘against’ rather than ‘for’. The only major exception was Florida’s Ron DeVictorius and his growing base of voters, who outperformed the Moist Red Sponge wiped across Congress.

Now wait until 2024 on the other side of more high inflation –it’s US CPI today– and high unemployment, and a recession – that will be a doozy. Indeed, that economic dynamic is starting to unfold even before the 2022 vote is in.

Crypto firm FTX may go under after fellow crypto firm Binance walked away from saving it. Owner Sam Bankman-Fried’s $16bn fortune was no bank, man, and is fried. He is ironically on the public record talking about how much safer and more transparent crypto is than banks. Now the public sees this nebbish talks rubbish, and crypto can be crapto. Yes, Cryptonites can rail all they like about fiat and ‘The System’, but humans are humans. Unless you build your own server and run your own crypto exchange just for yourself –in which case what’s the point?– you are going to get episodes like this, until crypto is regulated like banks – and then what’s the point?

Swathes of the market have no idea what just happened even as hedge funds reel: but the US Justice Department does, especially if the funds FTX donated heavily to the Democrats might have to be returned. Expect this to be the ammunition needed to bring the hammer down on the whole sector. (And Biden is implying Elon Musk might separately be in the firing line for his relationships with other countries / slash buying Twitter.)

What FTX shows is that when you raise rates towards 5%, lots of stupid stuff stops happening. Like $16bn fortunes created by allegedly playing ‘League of Legends’ through meetings which wax lyrical about being much more than a bank while not being regulated like one. Indeed, add the ‘Bankman fried’ story to job losses at Twitter and Meta –whose employees can go live in the metaverse, so I don’t know what they are complaining about– and you have the start of a serious tech downturn, to match a housing downturn. On top of that you can add a logistics downturn, as that sector goes from feast to famine, according to FreightWaves.

Like I said, wait for 2024. Nobody seems to know what they should be doing about the mess we are in now, let alone one where we have high unemployment and blowing out budget deficits alongside blowing up digital rivals to the US dollar.

Which is a segue to the geopolitical space, where Kevin Rudd has another double-barrelled piece in Foreign Affairs (‘The Return of Red China’), which makes clear if you want to talk about a Red Wave, it is not the US you should be looking at:

“That means foreigners must set aside the comfortable analytical frameworks many of them have used to analyse China for the last two generations. Most countries, including many in the West, are predisposed to think that when China’s leaders speak in ideological terms, it is not to be taken seriously (or that if it is, the ideology purely applies to the party’s domestic politics). But that is no longer the case. As I wrote in Foreign Affairs shortly before the party congress, “Under Xi, ideology drives policy more often than the other way around.” He is a true believer in Marxism-Leninism; his rise represents the return to the world stage of Ideological Man. This Marxist-Nationalist ideological framework drives Beijing’s return to party control over politics and society with contracting space for private dissent and personal freedoms. It also drives Beijing’s born-again statist approach to economic management, and its increasingly assertive foreign and security policies aimed at changing the international status quo…

He is also intent on pushing China’s economy away from market-based capitalism and back toward statism by rehabilitating state-owned enterprises and designating the state as the primary driver of technological innovation… Party members are now required to “grasp both the worldview and the methodology of Marxism-Leninism” and apply the “analytical tools of dialectical and historical materialism” to understand “the great challenges of the time.” In reinforcing once again this traditional Marxist ontological and  epistemological framework for understanding and responding to the world, Xi has also called on the party to “develop a new form of human civilization.” This now extends to Chinese foreign policy, where Beijing is increasingly comfortable using pressure, leverage, and force.“  

Rudd concludes this is generating a Western backlash, yet “as a practicing Marxist dialectician, Xi Jinping is probably already anticipating that response – and preparing whatever countermeasures may then be warranted.” For those who *still* haven’t read any Marx, i.e., everyone who thinks talking about CNY fixing or Chinese stocks makes them an expert on the place, Rudd is saying Marxism is all about projecting action and counteraction. Hence Xi knows what he’s doing will drive a response, but he’s assuming it’s a positive one somehow.

Relatedly, Biden, with a newfound spring in his step, and Xi, with the same, will now meet next week in Bali at the G20. The former is quoted as saying, “I’m not willing to make any fundamental concessions,“ and instead wants to “lay out what each of our red lines are,” and “how to work it out,” as well as underlining his commitment to defend Taiwan. That’s just after Xi told his military to prepare for war. (Which, to be fair, is what militaries do.)

Very high stakes stuff. Many in markets, including many purported US allies, will be averting their eyes, saying “A plague on both your houses.”

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced pressure in Parliament on Wednesday after Cabinet minister Sir Gavin Williamson was forced to quit over allegations of abusive behaviour towards colleagues.

Sunak defended giving Williamson a seat at the Cabinet table, saying he was not aware of “any of the specific concerns” about Williamson’s past conduct.

Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer accused Sunak of hiding behind bullies because he’s “too weak” to take them on, saying Sunak gave Williamson a job “precisely” because he’s a bully.

Williamson, who was appointed the Minister without Portfolio two weeks ago, resigned on Tuesday saying the allegations had “become a distraction” from the government’s “good work.”

He also said he refutes “the characterisation of these claims” and that he will comply with the parliamentary investigation process and clear his name.

In a separate Twitter post, Williamson said he will not take severance payment.

Britain’s Education Secretary Gavin Williamson speaks during a virtual press conference inside 10 Downing Street in central London on Feb. 24, 2021. (John Sibley/ Pool/via Getty Images)

Allegations against the former minister first emerged on Saturday when The Sunday Times reported that he had sent expletive-laden messages to former Conservative Party Chief Whip Wendy Morton.

Williamson, who spearheaded Rishi Sunak’s failed bid to become the prime minister during the summer, accused Morton of punishing rivals by excluding them from Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, according to The Times.

The report also said former Conservative Party chairman Sir Jake Berry said he had told Sunak that Morton was submitting a complaint against Williamson on Oct. 24, the day before Sunak became the prime minister and gave Williamson a seat at the Cabinet table.

The Independent reported on Tuesday that Morton also submitted a complaint to Parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme.

The Guardian on Monday said Williamson was abusive to civil servants when he was the Defence Secretary, telling them to “slit your throat” and “jump out of the window” on separate occasions, citing an unnamed former senior official from the Ministry of Defence.

Williamson told the publication that he strongly rejects the allegation and had enjoyed “good working relationships” with officials during his previous cabinet jobs, adding, “No specific allegations have ever been brought to my attention.”

Anne Milton, who was the deputy chief whip when Williamson was the chief whip, on Tuesday told Channel 4 News that he would use “salacious gossip” as “leverage against MPs if the need arose.”

Williamson announced his resignation on Twitter on Tuesday night, posting his resignation letter that said he refutes “the characterisation of these claims” but recognises they are “becoming a distraction” from the government’s “good work.”

“I have therefore decided to step back from government so that I can comply fully with the complaints process that is underway and clear my name of any wrongdoing,” he wrote.

Williamson also said he’s complying with the bullying watchdog’s complaint process.

Facing Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Sunak told MPs that Williamson’s alleged behaviour was “unacceptable” and that his resignation was “absolutely right.”

Sunak said he didn’t know about “any of the specific concerns relating to his conduct as Secretary of State or chief whip, which date back some years.”

“I believe that people in public life should treat others with consideration and respect. And those are the principles that this government will stand by,” he said.

Asked if he regrets appointing Williamson, Sunak said he regrets “appointing someone who has had to resign in these circumstances” and that it’s “absolutely right” that “there is an investigation to look into these matters properly.”

“I said my government will be characterized by integrity, professionalism, and accountability, and it will,” the prime minister added, referring to his first speech on the job.

Sunak resigned as the chancellor of Boris Johnson’s government in July after the former prime minister admitted it was a “mistake” to keep Chris Pincher in government despite sexual misconduct allegations against him, having previously denied knowledge of specific allegations.

Brits have watched double-digit inflation wipe out any wage gains in one of the worst cost-of-living crises in a generation. Many have gone into debt, paying for things such as food, energy, and shelter. Others have been left with little or no discretionary income ahead of a very dark and cold winter.

Research company Kantar published a new survey Tuesday that revealed startling food inflation numbers for October that soared at the fastest pace in 14 years. 

Kantar said annual grocery prices rose to 14.7% last month, the fastest since the research firm began tracking prices.

Consumers are expected to pay an additional £682 in their annual grocery bill if they continue buying the same items. 

The survey found that 27% of all households are “struggling financially,” double the amount from last November. Nine in ten respondents said food inflation is a top concern, while energy bills were second. 

“So it’s clear just how much grocery inflation is hitting people’s wallets and adding to their domestic worries,” Kantar said. 

Kantar revealed consumers are switching from name-brand items to cheap private-label store brands to save money:  

Own label sales have jumped again by 10.3% over the latest four weeks, as shoppers adopt different strategies to manage their budgets. The branded goods market grew far slower at 0.4%.

In a separate study, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found a whopping 7 million families have given up on heating, showers, and toiletries this year due to the cost-of-living crisis squeezing discretionary income.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which publishes the Asda tracker, found that after paying taxes for housing, heating, and food, 20% of earners in the second lowest income have nothing left to spend, according to Bloomberg.  

Asda income tracker found poorer households are hit the hardest by inflation. 

Middle earners are also experiencing a decline in discretionary income. 

Regionally, Brits in the South East have experienced inflation rates nearly doubled than those in the North East. 

Walid Koudmani, the chief market analyst at online investment platform XTB online trading, told Financial Times:

“[Food price inflation] when compounded with the massive energy spending increases has been seen by many as a significant risk to the economic stability of the UK.

“It is likely that food inflation will continue to increase as macroeconomic indicators have shown little sign of a slowing down in price growth while consumers continue to struggle with the ongoing cost of living crisis.”

Socioeconomic turmoil is only growing in the UK as it morphed into a political crisis. Government handouts might not cushion all households as inflation remains sticky at four-decade highs. 

Uk’s new Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has a lot on his plate as he must suppress inflation while preventing social unrest, which will be a tricky balancing act as the cold season begins. 

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Demand for oil tankers carrying oil products is set to soar next year to heights not seen in three decades, according to new research from Clarkson Research Services, Ltd., cited by Bloomberg.

The research organization is forecasting that the number of ton-miles will increase next year by 9.5%–the largest annual increase since 1993.

Ton miles—the volume of cargo multiplied by the distance that cargo traverses—is a common gauge that the shipping industry uses.

Part of the reason behind the anticipated demand surge for ton miles for oil products is the change in routes due to Russia’s soon-to-be restrictions on exports. Russia will need to redirect crude product flows to buyers not involved in price capping or sanctions, such as Asia—but this rerouting is expected to increase the distance that Russian cargos are shipping.

“It could easily be five or six times the distance and that means that you’ll need much more ships to transport the same volume that you imported previously,” said Anders Redigh Karlsen, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, told Bloomberg.

“That is going to drive demand for product tankers.”

In September, Danish shipping company Torm told Bloomberg that “The EU ban on Russian oil products from February 2023 will spark a recalibration of the oil trade ecosystem. Some of this trade recalibration has already started.”

Another factor are new refineries in Asia and the Middle East, which are expected to begin to exporting.

The oil tanker market is already having a good year earnings-wise, as rates for carrying refined fuels on medium-range voyages increase to levels not seen since 2008.

Demand for tankers has been on the rise ever since the EU sanctioned Russia, and shipping companies were left scrambling to get ahold of ice-class tankers ahead of the embargo. Few tankers have been built in the past few years, and since this is not something the industry can reverse overnight, supply will probably remain tight, pushing the cost of transporting oil and fuels higher.

10s of 1000s of nurses across the majority of National Health Service trusts and health boards in the UK have voted to strike over pay for the first time ever in an action that threatens major disruption to an already strained health system.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN), which has more than 300,000 members, said industrial action would begin before the end of the year following the first ever strike vote in its 106-year-old history.

Many of the biggest hospitals in England, all NHS employers in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and all but one NHS employer in Wales voted to join the action while some hospitals in England “narrowly missed the legal turnout thresholds to qualify,” the nurse union said.

The RCN said experienced nurses’ salaries are 20 percent worse off in real terms compared to ten years earlier, demanding a pay rise of 5 percent above inflation.

“Anger has become action — our members are saying enough is enough,” RCN General Secretary Pat Cullen said in a statement.

“This action will be as much for patients as it is for nurses. Standards are falling too low.”

The RCN’s demands would amount to combined pay rises costing £9 billion ($10.25 billion) which would be “simply not deliverable,” the spokesperson said, adding there were contingency plans in place for any “staff impact.”

As Lily Zhou reports at The Epoch Times, the union said the government must “signal a new direction” in its autumn budget announcement scheduled for Nov. 17.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay expressed disappointment in the union’s announcement, saying the nurses’ demands are “out of step” with the current economic circumstances the UK faces.

“We accepted the recommendations of the independent NHS Pay Review Body in full and have given over one million NHS workers a pay rise of at least £1,400 this year on top of a 3 [percent] rise last year,” the minister wrote on Twitter.

Barclay said he is “hugely grateful” for the hard work and dedication of NHS staff, including nurses, but said the “union demands for a 17.6% pay settlement are around three times what millions of people outside the public sector will typically receive and simply aren’t reasonable or affordable,” adding, “Labour have also refused to back this.”

Speaking to Sky News earlier, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan said another problem with ”massive above-inflation rises” is that it would in turn fuel inflation.

Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting accused the government of “unacceptable negligence,” saying Labour would have been “talking with the RCN and doing everything we can to prevent these strikes going ahead” if they were in government.

But he told BBC Radio 4’s “PM” programme he wouldn’t be able to meet the nurses’ demands either in current circumstances, saying, “the Conservatives [have] crashed the economy.”

Barclay, who got the job for the second time on Oct. 25 after being put in the role between July 4 and Sept. 6 owning to the recent shuffling of prime ministers, told broadcasters that he offered a meeting during his first week on the job.

RCN Scotland Board formally rejected an offer from the Scottish Government to give lower-earning nurses an 11 percent pay rise.

Britain has seen a wave of industrial unrest this year across a range of professions as pay hikes fail to keep up with inflation running at 10%.