The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced the withdrawal of guidance for banks related to their crypto-asset and dollar token activities and related changes to its expectations for these activities. 

These actions ensure the Board’s expectations remain aligned with evolving risks and further support innovation in the banking system.

Bitcoin prices extended gains above $95,000…

Amid a sudden resurgence in net inflows into BTC ETFs…

The Board is rescinding its 2022 supervisory letter establishing an expectation that state member banks provide advance notification of planned or current crypto-asset activities. 

As a result, the Board will no longer expect banks to provide notification and will instead monitor banks’ crypto-asset activities through the normal supervisory process.

The Board is also rescinding its 2023 supervisory letter regarding the supervisory nonobjection process for state member bank engagement in dollar token activities.

Finally, the Board, together with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is joining the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in withdrawing from two 2023 statements jointly issued by the federal bank regulatory agencies regarding banks’ crypto-asset activities and exposures. 

The Board will work with the agencies to consider whether additional guidance to support innovation, including crypto-asset activities, is appropriate.

Additionally, CoinTelegraph reports that Bitcoin is flashing multiple technical and onchain signals suggesting that a rally to $100,000 is possible by May.

And as we have noted recently, bitcoin continues to track lagged global liquidity almost perfectly…

Combined with bullish chart structures and concentrated short liquidity overhead, BTC remains positioned for a potential move toward $100,000 by May.

Via Remix News,

Berlin Senator Cansel Kiziltepe, of the Social Democratic Party  (SPD), decided to attack Elon Musk on X, comparing his Tesla cars to “Nazi cars,” creating a massive backlash in the neighboring state of Brandenburg, home to Europe’s only Tesla car factory. The post is particularly odd, given her role as state minister for labor.

In what appears to be a now-deleted post, the SPD politician had written on X: 

“Who wants to drive a Nazi car? Manufacturers of electric cars are experiencing a sales boom – apart from Tesla,” according to Welt. 

Brandenburg’s Minister of Economic Affairs Daniel Keller (also SPD) called on her to retract the statement. 

“Such a Nazi comparison hurts the people who work there and is completely inappropriate for a labor senator,” Keller told the dpa news agency.

“I expect the labor senator to retract her historically unacceptable comparison and return objectively to the major economic and labor market policy challenges that Berlin and Brandenburg should tackle together.” 

Keller continued, saying, “Everyone can have their own personal opinion about Elon Musk. But it’s important to me that we don’t forget the people behind the Tesla factory in Grünheide. 11,000 people from 150 nations work here – more than half of the employees live in Berlin.”

Senator Kiziltepe still has a more diplomatic statement posted regarding the electric car company:

“Tesla is currently experiencing a sales slump because customers attribute the right-wing extremist positions of its shareholder Elon Musk, who holds around 13% of the company,” she wrote.

“I explicitly stand by my assessment of Elon Musk. Of course, this does not mean that I hold Musk’s employees or customers responsible for his political positions,” she added.

But not everyone felt this was enough, especially given her comment was seen by most as potentially endangering jobs. 

“Denigrating the Tesla as a Nazi car shows what you’re really like. Full of hate and division. Simply disgraceful. Better to eliminate all jobs in Germany. You’d like that, wouldn’t you? After all, we’re paying you,” reads one reply.

“Are you still a senator, or have you already resigned to avert further damage to your office and democracy after your unspeakable trivialization of the Nazis? If not, you should do so immediately” another commenter posted.

“Yeah, everyone knows by now that you hate Elon Musk. What are the reasons for your hatred? As a civil servant, don’t you have better things to do than vent your hatred online? another X user asked.

Tesla has become the largest employer in Brandenburg in Grünheide, with some 11,500 people working there. The jobs at its Gigafactory, which opened just three years ago, are permanent with good salaries. The automaker’s net profits took a hit last quarter; the drop in sales is attributed to both a model change as well as controversies surrounding Musk’s politics. 

“Brandenburg and Berlin benefit from this in terms of employment and value creation,” AfD deputy leader Stephan Brandner told the “Rheinische Post” newspaper.

The Berlin-Brandenburg Business Association (UVB) also called out the comparison for insulting Tesla employees and scaring away new investment, not to mention hurting Kiziltepe’s own re-election. Managing Director Alexander Schirp stated that such defamation was unworthy of a member of the Berlin Senate.

“This doesn’t increase the manufacturer’s chances of investing in the capital. Statements of this magnitude do not bode well for the election campaign,” the UVB MD said. 

Read more here…

A top Russian general has been assassinated in a car bombing in the Russian city of Balashikha on Friday, authorities have confirmed. The city lies less than 20 miles east of Moscow.

The deceased has been identified as Lt Gen Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, who died when a “homemade” explosive device detonated under his Volkswagen Golf, according to TASS. Shrapnel ripped through the area and what appears to be a residential neighborhood.

Crucially news of the blast and killing was breaking just prior to President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The two sides are trying to find a way forward toward Ukraine peace settlement, which President Zelensky has clearly not been on board with.

Witkoff was in his meeting with Putin at the Kremlin by early Friday afternoon, during which time news of Gen. Mokalik’s assassination, accompanied by shocking video of the event, was spreading around the world. Witkoff also met with senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev.

An initial investigation at the scene has resulted in authorities describing that the improvised explosive device was packed with shrapnel.

The Guardian describes that “A video circulating on Russian social media captured the moment the car exploded, while additional images showed the vehicle completely burnt out.” Ukrainian leaders have yet to comment on the bombing.

“The latest apparent Ukrainian operation is unlikely to sit well with the Trump administration, which has been desperate to show tangible progress on peace before Trump’s 100th day in office next week,” The Guardian continues.

Videos of the car bombing suggest the person(s) behind clips like the below knew of the attack ahead of time…

Another Russian General assassinated in Moscow via car bomb. The war is only going to become more and more asymmetrical with time. pic.twitter.com/qemmLN8G9v

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 25, 2025

The Friday meeting and visit to Moscow was Witkoff’s fourth trip and meeting with Putin, at a moment Moscow says it’s “ready” for peace, but has called for Ukrainian forces’ exit from the four annexed territories, and insisted that Crimea belongs to Russia forever.

Given the timing, was this Ukrainian or other European intelligence services sending a message?

💥 Explosion in Moscow — Russian Army General Moskalyuk has been killed.

– just in time as Trump’s envoy Witkoff arrives in Moscow for Peace Talks with Putin pic.twitter.com/5xREq3y3uL

— Russian Market (@runews) April 25, 2025

Throughout the course of the war there’s been a string of similar high profile assassinations involving car and cafe bombs.

The August 2022 killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of ultranationalist political commentator Alexander Dugin, is among the most well known. Her vehicle exploded while it traveled in a Moscow suburb, in assassination likely meant for her father. Also, the Ukrainians owned up to killing senior Russian general Igor Kirillov and his assistant, Ilya Polikarpovwho. They died in a December 2024 scooter blast outside Kirillov’s apartment. He headed Russia’s Radiological, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces.

US equity futures are mixed after three days of gain, with tech leading, highlighted by GOOG (+5.6% amid strong earnings results last night), META (+3.5%), and TSLA (+1.6%). S&P futures first rose to session highs during the Asian session, when sentiment was first buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed officials Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack, which bolstered expectations for a potential interest-rate cut as soon as June; but the session highlight was a Bloomberg report that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including plane leases, indicating a shift in the game theoretical “game of chicken” balance and suggesting a deal may come sooner than expected as pain levels are rising for Beijing. Later, foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China is not in talks with the US over tariffs, contradicting Trump and underscoring the complexities for investors tracking headlines out of Washington and Beijing. Futures then slumped to session lows just after 6am ET after Time published an interview with Trump (which took place on April 22) in which the president said China’s President Xi has called him (something China denies), said he would not call XI himself, and when asked if high tariffs are still present a year from now, Trump said that would be a “total victory” adding that he expects trade deals in the next 3-4 weeks. In other words, if China may have been offering an olive branch before the interview, those hopes were dashed after its publication and S&P futures reflected that, sliding to session lows down about 0.4% after earlier they rose by the same amouint.

The dollar strengthened, while the yen and Swiss franc retreated as investor demand for non-US haven assets waned. Gold slid 1.5%. Treasuries extended their gains from Thursday; Bond yields dropped (2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 0.8bp, -0.2bp, -1.6bp lower). Commodities were mixed with Base Metals higher and Precious Metals lower.  The US session includes revised April University of Michigan sentiment gauges, and Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting starts Saturday.

In premarket trading, Alphabet shares jumped as much as 5% after posting first-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded analysts’ expectations, buoyed by continued strength in its search advertising business. Alphabet was the top gainer in the Magnificent Seven stocks (Alphabet +4.9%, Meta +3.2%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple -0.8%; Alphabet rises 4.9%). Intel tumbled 7% as CEO Lip-Bu Tan gave investors a stark diagnosis of the chipmaker’s problems, along with the sense that it will take a while to fix them. Gilead drops 3.9% after the biopharmaceutical company posted 1Q revenue that fell short of estimates as sales of Trodelvy and Veklury disappointed. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) falls 2.3% after the chemicals and plastics maker provided a disappointing second-quarter profit forecast, citing factors including tariffs between the US and China.
• Hasbro rises 1.0% as Citi upgrades to buy, citing underlying momentum of the toymaker’s business.
• Ironwood Pharmaceuticals climbs 9.3% after the company reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Sphere Entertainment rises 13% after its wholly-owned unit MSG Networks reached a deal to restructure the debt of its subsidiaries and amend the media rights agreements with the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers.
• T-Mobile falls 5.7% after the company reported fewer new wireless phone subscribers than analysts expected in the first quarter.
• Skechers USA slides 6.9% after the footwear company said it’s not providing financial guidance and withdrawing its previous annual outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

On the trade front, Bloomberg News reported that China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. Later, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China isn’t in talks with the US over tariffs, contradicting President Donald Trump and underscoring the complexities for investors tracking headlines out of Washington and Beijing.

“We are currently in tariff purgatory,” said Joachim Klement, strategist at Panmure Liberum. “There is no fundamental change to the outlook, so markets latch on to noise and get constantly whipsawed by the ever-changing utterances of Donald Trump and his cabinet.”

Confirming that, in an interview Time published with Trump just after 6am ET, and which took place on April 22, Trump said China’s President Xi has called him even though China has denied this; when asked if high tariffs are still present a
year from now, Trump said that would be a “total victory.” 

• In the interview, Trump said tariffs are still necessary.
• “If we still have high tariffs, whether it’s 20% or 30% or 50%, on foreign imports a year from now, will you consider that a victory?”, he responded, “Total victory”
• When asked if he would call Xi (if Xi did not call him), Trump replied “No”.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Secretary of Commerce Lutnick “did not tell me” to do a 90-day pause.
• ”1 certainly don’t mind having a tax increase” on millionaires
• Being serious when talking about acquiring the Panama canal, Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state
• Trade deals expected in the next 3-4 weeks

More recently, on Thursday, Trump said his administration was talking with China, even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations and demanded the US revoke all unilateral tariffs. Meanwhile, the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as next week, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

Traders also took some early comfort from hopes that the Fed may reduce interest rates earlier than expected. Markets currently favor a quarter-point cut in June and a total of three such reductions by year-end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d support rate cuts in the event aggressive tariffs under President Trump’s trade policies hurt the jobs market, speaking on Bloomberg Television. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC the central bank could move on rates as early as June if it has clear evidence of the economy’s direction.

While the dollar was on course for its first weekly gain in a month, Bank of America strategists said investors should sell into rallies in US stocks and the greenback, cautioning that the conditions for sustained gains are missing. The dollar is in the midst of a longer term depreciation while the shift away from US assets has further to go, according to the BofA team led by Michael Hartnett. The trend would continue until the Fed starts cutting rates, the US reaches a trade deal with China and consumer spending stays resilient. The depreciation of the dollar is the “cleanest investment theme to play,” according to Hartnett.

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.3%, on track for a fourth day of gains as worries about trade tensions between China and the US subsided, with most significant moves triggered by a continued deluge of earnings, including from Saab and Safran. Alten and Hemnet are among the biggest laggers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• IMCD shares rise as much as 8.5% after the chemicals maker’s earnings met expectations, which analysts said was a relief given yesterday’s plunge on the shock news its CEO was leaving
• Saab shares gain as much as 4.3%, reversing earlier declines of 5.2%. The Swedish defense firm’s 1Q earnings beat expectations, though their order intake missed
• Safran shares rise as much as 4.8% after the French aerospace and defense firm reported adjusted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Yara shares rise as much as 5.7% after the Norwegian agricultural chemicals firm reported adjusted Ebitda for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Accor shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest level this month. Analysts say the French hotel operator’s results are favorable, noting positive demand commentary and expectations for net unit growth throughout the year
• Saint-Gobain rises as much as 4.3% after the construction materials producer’s 1Q. Analysts are generally positive on the results, with Morgan Stanley praising the firm’s consistent delivery
• Alten shares slide as much as 12% after the French IT firm reported a 5.5% drop in organic sales in 1Q, warning that some of its major clients are freezing or postponing projects due to tariff uncertainties
• Hemnet shares drop as much as 11%, their worst drop since October, after the Swedish property platform missed expectations in the first quarter, giving up gains leading into the results
• Kemira shares fall as much as 15%, the steepest drop in almost 14 years, after the Finnish chemicals company warned over the impact on end-markets of increased economic uncertainty
• Mobico Group shares plunge as much as 11% after the company announced it is selling its school bus business in North America. Analysts said the price tag is disappointing

Asian equities also advanced after a Bloomberg report said Beijing is weighing a suspension of its 125% tariff on some US imports, though the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun later denied that they’re in talks with the US.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as signs of progress in trade negotiations boosted sentiment, with a major regional benchmark erasing all losses driven by Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day announcement of reciprocal tariffs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea all advanced. The key MSCI Asian index joins benchmarks in India, Korea, Australia and Indonesia in recouping losses from this month’s tariff selloff. The regional gauge is on track to cap its second-straight week of gains. Meanwhile, stocks and bonds tumbled in India, as traders braced for a potential worsening of the geopolitical situation with neighboring Pakistan. Indian shares were the worst performers in Asia on Friday, while the rupee and the nation’s bonds also slid, indicating growing angst among traders over any further ramping up of tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations. Markets are closed in Australia and New Zealand for holidays Friday. Key events to watch next week include rate decisions in Japan and Thailand as well as China PMI data.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.4% and is set to notch its first weekly gain in a month. The greenback gained versus all G-10 currencies;  The Japanese yen is among the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback; USD/JPY rises 0.8% to 143.85.  

In rates, Treasury futures rose to session highs in early US trading, with yields 1bp-4bp richer across a flatter curve, outperforming European bonds after stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data. The 10-year yield near 4.29% was ~3bp richer on the day, outperforming German counterpart by 5bp, UK by 2bp. Among US yield-curve spreads, 2s10s and 5s30s are 1bp-2bp flatter.  Shorter-dated maturities also underperform in Germany where two-year borrowing costs rise 4 bps.

In commodities, WTI falls 0.5% to $62.50 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 2% to just shy of $95,000. Haven assets underpeform, with gold falling nearly $50 to below $3,300/oz.

Looking at today’s calendar, the US session includes revised April University of Michigan sentiment gauges, and Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting starts Saturday.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.28%
• VIX +0.4 points at 27
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1227.23, 
• euro -0.3% at $1.1353
• WTI crude -0.3% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

• China has exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses notified, in the clearest sign yet of Beijing’s concerns about the trade war’s economic fallout. RTRS
• Apple plans to import most of the iPhones it sells in the US from India by the end of next year, accelerating a shift beyond China, people familiar said. The goal will require Apple to double its India capacity. BBG
• President Trump signed an executive order boosting the deep-sea mining industry, while the order instructs the Commerce Secretary to expedite permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resource Act, as well as instructs the Commerce and Interior Departments to issue a report on opportunities for seabed mineral exploration on the US outer continental shelf.
• China aims to implement more growth-supporting measures amid rising challenges from hefty U.S. tariffs. The government will seek to coordinate policy measures to support domestic economic aims amid external economic and trade struggles. the government intends to cut interest rates and the amount of cash banks are required to set aside at the central bank, while making full and effective use of existing fiscal and monetary policies, the Politburo said. WSJ
• Bessent says South Korea trade negotiations are moving along at a faster pace than anticipated. Nikkei
• US Republicans in Congress are to unveil a $150bln defense spending package including $27bln for Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense and $29bln for shipbuilding.
• Japan is considering a proposal that would see it boost purchases of US soybeans to compensate for a drop in China demand. Nikkei
• Tokyo inflation picked up to 3.4% in April, its fastest in two years and supporting the BOJ’s rate-hike stance. BBG
• A US-India trade agreement under discussion will cover 19 categories, including greater market access for farm goods, e-commerce, data storage and critical minerals, people familiar with the matter said, the first step toward a deal that may help the South Asian nation evade higher tariffs on its goods. BBG
• UK retail sales unexpectedly rose for a third straight month in March, helped by record-breaking sunshine. But GfK data showed consumer confidence slid to the weakest level in 17 months in April. BBG
• Russia’s oil producers are drilling at the fastest pace in at least five years, preparing for potential OPEC+ output hikes and possible sanction relief. Activity is more than a third above pre-war levels. BBG
• Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said a resolution of trade frictions would relieve uncertainty and would be optimistic, while he is worried that businesses will resort to layoffs amid uncertainties and noted some businesses say they are scenario planning for potential layoffs if uncertainty lasts although he is not seeing an uptick in layoffs yet. Furthermore, Kashkari said the frequency of announcements out of Washington has created a challenge for policymakers and for everybody.

Trade/Tariffs

• China held a meeting on responding to trade frictions, according to the Commerce Ministry; said Trade frictions enter a high-intensity phase and are facing difficulties and challenges China said to stay confident in handling trade tension; adopt strategic approaches. To focus on preventing and resolving trade risks. Trade frictions enter a high-intensity phase and are facing difficulties and challenges. Cultivate new opportunities in crisis.
• China’s Foreign Ministry said it is not having any consultations or negotiations with the US on tariffs; on tariff exemptions, said not familiar with specifics
• China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase with Chinese authorities considering removing additional levies for medical equipment and some industrial chemicals like ethane, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter. It was also reported that several Chinese tech companies confirmed that eight tariff codes related to semiconductors and integrated circuits are now exempt from additional tariffs, according to Caijing.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had a good meeting with South Korea and they are moving faster than thought, while they will talk technical terms and could get to terms next week.
• South Korea’s Trade Minister said South Korea and the US agreed in principle on the framework for trade talks. It was also reported that South Korea’s Finance Minister said they will try their best to produce meaningful results by July 8th and that autos were in focus during talks, while the two countries reached common ground on discussing measures on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, economic security, investment cooperation, and currency policy. Furthermore, technical-level talks between South Korea and the US will be held in Seoul on May 15th-16th and South Korea’s Industry Minister said they reached a common ground on shipbuilding cooperation with the US.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato met US Treasury Secretary Bessent and told him that US tariffs are deeply regretful, while they agreed the FX rate should be set by markets and that excessive volatility has an adverse effect on the economy. It was also reported that Japan is weighing buying more US soybeans as part of a tariff deal and is also considering boosting US corn imports.
• Canadian Finance Minister Champagne said they need to fight against the US tariffs, which are still affecting a large portion of Canadian goods. Furthermore, he said the scheduling was too tight for a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent but they did interact at the G7 meeting in Washington.
• US reportedly seeks India trade deal on e-commerce, crops, and data storage, according to Bloomberg sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St amid trade-related optimism after President Trump suggested that the US and China held talks despite a denial by the latter. However, conditions were somewhat quieter for most of the session with the absence of markets in Australia and New Zealand for a holiday, although there was a slight boost on reports that China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but with further gains initially capped as participants digested firmer-than-expected Tokyo CPI before the China tariff story provided a late tailwind. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied as the Hong Kong benchmark rallied amid strength in   property, tech and casino stocks, while the mainland lagged following the conflicting statements by the US and China on whether trade talks took place.

Top Asian News

• China’s Politburo said China’s fiscal policy will be more proactive, economic recovery needs to be further reinforced; China to cut RRR and rates when needed and in a timely manner; Vows to fully prepare emergency plans for external shocks. Use well moderately loose monetary policy China to cut RRR and rates when needed and in a timely manner. To create new structural monetary tools Vows to fully prepare emergency plans for external shocks. Improve policy toolbox for stabilising employment and the economy. Implement established policies early. Will speed up issuance of ultra-long bonds.
• PBoC Governor Pan affirmed monetary policy is to be moderately loose and said they will defend global economic stability, while he vowed to drive the Chinese economy and said China’s economy is off to a good start, continues to rebound positively, and the financial market is running smoothly.
• China’s Finance Minister attended the G20 meeting in Washington and said the current world economic growth momentum is insufficient and tariff wars and trade wars have further affected economic and financial stability.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said he decided on a package of measures to deal with US tariffs and instructed cabinet members to do the utmost to aid small and medium-sized enterprises that will be affected.
• Donald Trump Jr is to meet South Korean business leaders on April 30th, according to Yonhap.
• PCA sees China’s April car sales up 14.4% to 1.75mln Units, via Bloomberg

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened entirely in the green with sentiment boosted by positive trade updates from China, and following a stellar Alphabet earnings report. However, around the time of the European cash open, sentiment waned a touch – but this ultimately proved fleeting. European sectors opened with a strong positive bias but is a little more mixed now. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, with the sector propped up by post-earning strength in Accor (+4%) and Evoke (+1%). The former topped Q1 revenue expectations and highlighted that it saw “no cracks in demand” so far (re. hotels).

Top European News

• SNB Chairman Schlegel said the main instrument is interest rate, but forex interventions can also be used to influence monetary conditions. Trade policy situation is creating high uncertainty for all countries, including Switzerland; could fragment the global economy Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out. Price stability cannot prevent trade policy-related uncertainty, but remains very important.
• UK will reportedly be expected to pay a fee to guarantee UK companies access to a EUR 150bln EU weapons fund, according to the FT citing diplomats.

FX

• DXY is nursing some of its recent losses after retreating amid the broad risk-on sentiment on Wall St. Price action during the European morning has been rather contained, with the index in a 99.43-99.89 range at the time of writing. Sentiment today has been boosted by reports that China is considering exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase.
• EUR gave back some of the prior day’s gains after hitting resistance just shy of the 1.1400 handle as the greenback regained composure. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1315-1.1394 intraday range.
• JPY breached the 143.00 level to the upside which was facilitated by a rebound in the dollar and the positive risk appetite, while there were also some suggestions of Gotobi demand, whilst a flight out of safe-havens were seen on reports that China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. Tokyo CPI data saw an acceleration, but failed to lift the JPY.
• GBP faded some of Thursday’s advances and eventually gave up the 1.3300 status as the Dollar picked up. Little reaction was also seen this morning to the substantial beat in UK Retail Sales, which was stronger-than-expected. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said she understands US concerns on trade imbalances, especially in China and they don’t always agree with the US on policy prescriptions but is confident a trade deal can be done.
• Antipodeans are both subdued amid the upticks in the Dollar and overall cautious risk tone amid the uncertain trade environment, whilst markets were closed on both sides of the Tasman for ANZAC Day.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2066 vs exp. 7.2898 (Prev. 7.2098).

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat in what has been a rangebound morning thus far as traders digest the latest Bloomberg reports on China, which suggest China is said to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. UST futures rate in a narrow 111.02+ to 111.09 range at the time of writing; docket ahead is thin.
• German debt is taking a breather after steadily climbing to just shy of the 132.00 level, whilst a slew of ECB commentary failed to trigger much price action. In terms of a recent ECB commentary on tariffs, ECB rhetoric leans towards an initial disinflationary narrative around tariffs, with Lagarde calling them a negative demand shock and noting the net inflation impact remains unclear. Knot flagged that a 25% US tariff could shave 0.3ppts off EZ growth.
• Gilts are conforming to price action across peers despite little notable move seen from the above-forecast UK retail sales metrics. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said she understands US concerns on trade imbalances, especially in China and they don’t always agree with the US on policy prescriptions but is confident a trade deal can be done. Gilt Jun’24 futures currently reside around the middle of a 92.90-93.14 range.

Commodities

• The crude complex has been choppy, trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Early morning sentiment was boosted by reports that China is to consider exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase. Around the European cash open, some modest pressure was seen in the complex, but the downside has since stabilised. Brent’Jun 25 currently trading within a USD 66.48-67.11/bbl range.
• Precious metals hold a negative bias, with losses in spot gold more pronounced vs peers, due to the positive risk tone and relatively stronger Dollar. XAU currently towards the lower end of a USD 3,287.16-3,370.79/oz range.
• Base metals are entirely in the red, with losses driven by the relatively stronger Dollar and potentially due to the conflicting commentary of US-China trade talks. 3M LME Copper currently trading in a USD 9,359.5-9,458.8/t range.
• UK’s Unite said TotalEnergies (TTE FP) workers balloted for strike action and that around 50 Unite members based on the Elgin Franklin and North Alwyn platforms are involved.
• Iranian oil minister said Tehran will sign USD 4bln agreement with Russian companies to develop seven oil fields, via state TV.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) reports flaring event at Joliet, Illinois refinery (275k BPD).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Haaretz citing sources: No significant progress in the negotiations of the exchange deal between Hamas and Israel so far”, according to Al Jazeera
• China, Russia, and Iran IAEA representatives met with the IAEA Director General on Thursday and had in-depth communication on how the IAEA can play its role in serving the political and diplomatic settlement process of the Iranian nuclear issue.
• US is poised to offer Saudi Arabia an over USD 100bln arms package during President Trump’s visit to the kingdom in May.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the US and Russia are moving in the right direction towards the deal.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte said he had a good meeting with US President Trump and discussed Ukraine, while he does not know if Russian President Putin wants peace but added that something is on the table for Russia-Ukraine and the ball is in Russia’s court. Furthermore, Rutte said it is not accurate that the US pressured Ukraine to accept a deal that favours Russia.

Geopolitics: Other

• “AFP quotes Pakistani official: overnight exchange of fire on border with India”, via Sky News Arabia.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50.5, prior 50.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from Luxembourg and last night stayed up late to watch the final episode of the latest series of “The White Lotus”, one of the most famous dramas of the last few years. If you ever think your life is going through a tough patch please watch this program as many of these guys have some serious issues!!!

At times the series was so uncomfortable that it was a relief to get back to markets and to trade wars. However for now markets continue to recover with US assets in particular catching up on lost performance after the recent normalisation of policy from the US administration. My view is that the damage to US exceptionalism will be longer lasting but that it’s understandable that there’ll be a relief recovery after the US has come back from the brink policy wise. It’s also worth noting that before Liberation Day the Mag-7 were notably underperforming, especially since DeepSeek’s arrival onto the scene and a generally disappointing Q4 earnings season for the group. See my CoTD from yesterday here for more on this. How the Mag-7 perform from here will dictate a lot of the US exceptionalism trade.

We had the latest taste of this with Alphabet’s earnings yesterday evening. Google’s parent delivered a decent revenue and earnings beat, mostly driven by its search advertising business, and announced a 5% dividend increase. Its shares rose by close to 5% in post-market trading, following on a +2.37% gain in the regular session. S&P 500 (+0.51%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.62%) futures are trading higher overnight helped by these results. Next stop for the Mag-7 will be the releases from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple on Wednesday and Thursday next week. So a big couple of days ahead next week. Interestingly the FT have just broken a story as we go to print saying that Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. This is a big move away from China and shows how the geopolitics are shifting. It’s a big win for India.

As trade and geopolitics are reshaping, for now investors are becoming more relaxed about the near-term outlook with few signs of deteriorating data as yet and some dovish comments from Fed officials yesterday, which reassured investors that the Fed would still cut rates if the labour market deteriorated. So collectively, that helped the S&P 500 (+2.03%) to post a third consecutive gain for the first time since Liberation Day. And in another sign that market stress was easing, the VIX index (-1.98pts) fell to its lowest since the April 2 tariff announcements, closing at 26.47pts.

Those comments from Fed officials really helped to support the market yesterday, as they were notably more dovish than Chair Powell, who’d sounded a lot more concerned about inflation. For instance, Fed Governor Waller repeated his previous view that tariffs just represented a one-time price effect, and said that if he saw “a significant drop in the labor market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in.” Earlier, we also heard from Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who said that if they had “clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time”. So that was seen as opening the possibility of a rate cut sooner than expected, and futures moved to price in 85bps of cuts by the December meeting, up +6.0bps on the day. And in turn, Treasuries saw a strong rally, with the 10yr yield (-6.7bps) falling back to 4.32%, marking its third consecutive decline.

Aside from those remarks, the other good news yesterday was that the labour market appeared to remain in decent shape for the time being. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were at 222k over the week ending April 19, in line with expectations. Moreover, that was completely in line with where they’ve been over recent weeks, having oscillated between 216k-225k for the last 8 consecutive weeks now. So yet again, there was no obvious sign that layoffs were increasing, and we even saw continuing claims (for the week ending April 12) fall back to 1.841m (vs. 1.869m expected), which was their lowest since late-January.

All that helped to spur a strong market rally, with most US assets continuing to unwind their post-Liberation Day moves. For instance, the S&P 500 (+2.03%) posted a third consecutive gain, and it was actually the first time since February 2023 that the index has managed three consecutive gains of more than +1% a day. Tech stocks led the advance, with the Magnificent 7 (+2.94%) now up by +9.67% over the last three sessions.

When it came to the latest on tariffs, the most notable headline was Trump suggesting that his administration has been talking with China on trade. This came in contrast to comments from China officials earlier in the day, who said that there were no trade negotiations currently happening and that the US should revoke its unilateral tariffs if they wanted to start trade talks. Overnight Bloomberg are reporting that China is considering carving out exemptions to its tariffs on US goods given the stress it’s causing in some areas. So whatever officials say there seems to be movement on both sides to pull back from the most extreme position of the last few weeks.

In terms of other trade talks, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” as soon as next week. This followed similar comments earlier in the week on progress in talks with India and added to the sense that the US is keen to announce some agreements soon, even if these represent only rough outlines of the eventual deals.

Back in Europe, markets also put in a decent performance for the most part, which was similarly supported by more robust data than expected. In particular, the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high of 86.9 in April (vs. 85.2 expected). Fiscal expansion plans must be helping. Moreover, the expectations component only saw a modest pullback to 87.4 (vs. 85.0 expected), thus avoiding the sharp drop that was widely expected.

That backdrop helped to support European assets across the board, with the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) posting a modest gain by the close. It also meant that the index is now up just over 10% from its low on April 9, just before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension. In the meantime, sovereign bonds also put in a strong performance, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.0bps), OATs (-7.2bps) and BTPs (-8.4bps) all coming down. And that got further support from ECB officials, particularly as Olli Rehn said that they shouldn’t rule out a larger cut, and chief economist Philip Lane said “there’s no reason to say we’re always going to do the default 25”.

In Asia, Japanese markets are the best performers with the Nikkei (+1.83%) and the Topix (+1.37%) trading sharply higher after the Japanese government unveiled a package of emergency measures to counter the impact of tariffs. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.36%) and KOSPI (+1.02%) are performing well. Mainland Chinese stocks are a little more subdued with the CSI (+0.30%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) only a touch higher. Even with the Apple news mentioned above, Indian stocks (-0.90%) are lower as tensions are very elevated with Pakistan at the moment around Kashmir. Meanwhile, Australian markets are closed for a holiday.

Early morning data showed that Tokyo CPI grew more than expected, rising to a two-year high of +3.5% y/y in April (v/s +3.3% expected) amid a recovery in private spending. It followed a +2.9% increase the prior month. Core CPI rose +3.4% y/y in April (v/s +3.2% expected) after advancing +2.4% the previous month thus increasing speculation over more interest rate hikes by the BOJ.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April. Elsewhere, we’ll get UK retail sales for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Greene.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope?

We all know there’s a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he realizes there’s nothing but thin air beneath his feet. His expression in the second before he begins his descent communicates surprise, fear and a woeful awareness of impending impact with unforgiving ground.

This is an apt description of the present moment. The economy has already run off the cliff, but we haven’t yet experienced that second of realization that there’s nothing but thin air below.

We can call this the Wile E. Coyote Recession, as there is a time lag of around one quarter between the moment we left the cliff edge and the moment we start falling. The economy has momentum, as what’s in transit and in the warehouses is already in the pipeline. But now that Deglobalization has disrupted supply chains, once what’s in the pipeline has been distributed, the new realities start playing out.

Legions of economists and financial pundits are claiming to measure the odds of a recession. This is akin to Wile E. Coyote attempting to measure his odds of catching the Roadrunner in mid-air: the recession is already a matter of gravity.

Similar prognostications are being issued about the stock market, which depends on many factors, but the one that looms largest is corporate profits. If profits rise, this justifies higher stock valuations. If profits fall sharply, then stock valuations will adjust downward.

Two charts reveal the primary sources of soaring corporate profits: globalization from 2001 to 2024, and profiteering from 2020 to 2025.

Here we see that corporate profits were in the $700 billion to $800 billion range all through one of the greatest booms in American history, 1995 to 2000. This was sufficient to spark an economic boom and a booming stock market.

Then globalization kicked into high gear in 2001 with China’s entry into the WTO (World Trade Organization). As corporations rushed to offshore production. profits soon tripled to the $2.2 trillion – $2.4 trillion range, a range that held steady through the 2010-2019 boom in GDP and stocks.

The Covid pandemic lockdown triggered a mini-crash which was reversed by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the span of a few years, corporate profits nearly doubled. Since globalization had been a force for two decades, this extraordinary rise can’t be attributed to that factor.

The reality was much uglier, and so we don’t dare discuss it in polite company. Corporations boosted profits not by increasing productivity or generating higher quality goods and services; they boosted profits by:

1. profiteering / price-gouging

2. Shrinkflation

3. Crapification of goods and services (a.k.a. planned obsolescence)

4. Immiseration: reducing the quality of standard services to force consumers to “upgrade to premium,” and forcing consumers to agree to subscription services via mafia-type extortion.

With globalization reversing and prices / inflation set to rise as consumers run out of savings and credit, what happens to corporate profits going forward? As for jacking up profiteering, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration / extortion, these strategies have already been pushed to 11 (recall the dial stops at 10).

What’s next–a can of tuna the thickness of a slice of bread? A cereal box so thin it can no longer be stood up on a shelf? Shrinkflation has already reached absurd extremes, and there isn’t much left to squeeze out of this gimmick.

As for immiseration, that’s been pushed to the limits of human endurance as well. Once the reverse wealth effect and layoffs start taking a toll on consumers’ incomes and willingness to spend, the most miserable services will be the first ones to be axed.

So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? Maybe corporate profits will experience a Wile E. Coyote type impact with reality as gravity takes hold.

Note that if corporate profits had kept pace with inflation since 2002, they would be around $1.26 trillion annually, not $4.3 trillion. Maybe reversion will re-align corporate profits with inflation since 2001.

*  *  *

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has hilariously declared that every single dollar of U.S. taxpayer money sent to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion has been meticulously tracked and accounted for, dismissing concerns about corruption or misuse. The claim, one of his most audacious yet, came during an interview with Daily Wire co-founder and conservative podcaster Ben Shapiro.

Shapiro, known for his interventionist views regarding foreign affairs, pressed Zelensky on the issue of transparency, zeroing in on the nearly $200 billion in U.S. aid allocated to Ukraine’s defense.

“There’s lot’s a questions about where the money is going pensions, to war profiteering, to corruption,” Shapiro noted, before asking: “What kind of transparency can you provide to the American people to guarantee that there taxpayer dollars are being used in the best possible way to fight Russia and defend Ukraine, and to ensure, if the United States wants, would an audit be possible by the United States for where those dollars are going?”

“As for the audit, the United States has the understand there’s United States inspectors working, there’s inspectors of European countries, because we’ve also allocated their money and grateful to them,” Zelensky replied. “That is why we told them at once we’re ready to have any inspections from the very beginning of the way, inspectors coming from the United States, Europe, and our own inspectors.”

“We have complete reporting and accounting, absolutely transparent within the ministry of defense,” the Ukrainian president added. “There’s access to all the figures starting from the very first year of the war.”

🇺🇦 ZELENSKY: WE’RE OPEN TO ANY AUDIT—NOTHING TO HIDE

“As for the audit, we’ve always been ready. From the very beginning of the war, we’ve welcomed inspectors from the U.S., Europe, and our own.

There’s complete transparency within our Ministry of Defense—access to all figures… https://t.co/fXHqVRcEhj pic.twitter.com/VvUeRM7fLY

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 25, 2025

Zelensky then claimed that Russian “fake news” aimed at undermining U.S. aid to Ukraine was a primary reason for maintaining a comprehensive accounting of all American taxpayer funds provided to his government for the war.

“There’s nothing to hide, we’re absolutely open,” Zelensky told Shapiro. “There’s all the reports available.”

Zelensky’s comments prompted Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), an opponent of additional U.S. aid to Ukraine, to ask his nearly 600,000 followers on X if they believed the Ukrainian president’s claims.

“Funniest thing I’ve read all day,” billionaire Elon Musk tweeted in response, with a pair of laughing emojis.

Funniest thing I’ve read all day 🤣🤣

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 25, 2025

Not only does Zelensky maintain that Ukraine’s handling is U.S. aid is corruption-free, but he’s suggested in an interview with podcaster Lex Fridman that corruption was an issue in the West.

Kyiv Independent reports:

Ukraine has received less than half of the $177 billion in U.S. aid allocated to support Kyiv throughout the full-scale war, according to Zelensky. He suggested that this shortfall could be tied to issues of corruption or lobbying by U.S. companies.

“If we had $177 billion and if we get the half, where is the second half? If you find the second half, you will find corruption,” he said.

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy firmly denies corruption allegations, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari claims the Russia-Ukraine conflict is fueling an influx of arms and fighters into the Lake Chad region, strengthening terrorist groups.

Of note, in 2015, The Guardian ranked Ukraine “the most corrupt nation in Europe.”

VOA reported in November 2022:

Buhari called for more vigilance and cooperation among the commission’s six member nations against the increased proliferation of weapons into the Lake Chad basin. He said weapons meant for the Ukraine war and to combat terrorism in the Sahel are being diverted to West Africa and ending up in the hands of terrorist groups.

Zelensky’s comments about U.S. aide comes as President Donald Trump is intensifying efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, with recent London talks pushing a ceasefire that would freeze frontlines and cede Crimea to Russia. Zelenskyy resists the plan, calling it unconstitutional, but Trump remains optimistic.

On Thursday evening, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told CBS News that the Kremlin is “ready to reach a deal” with the U.S. regarding Ukraine, but cautioned that some of the terms need to be “fine tuned.”

“The President of the United States believes, and I think rightly so, that we are moving in the right direction,” Lavrov told the news outlet.

By now it’s become increasingly clear that both the U.S. and China are eager to de-escalate the trade war, yet neither is willing to make the first move. In China, export orders are drying up, and factories are shutting down. Meanwhile, across the Pacific Ocean in the U.S., containerized cargo volumes through the Port of Los Angeles are teetering on the edge of a very sharp decline, threatening to send shockwaves through Southern California’s economy and beyond.

Early Friday, several media outlets reported that China’s government has either considered or exempted some U.S. imports from a 125% tariff rate. 

Let’s begin with Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter who said Beijing is considering removing tariffs on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, including ethane.

As we noted earlier this week, the U.S. is a major supplier of ethane—a petrochemical feedstock and component of natural gas. Ethane is a critical input for China’s plastics industry, with few alternative suppliers outside the U.S. Needless to say, any disruption to ethane shipments would severely impact China’s plastics sector. 

Those sources continued down Beijing’s laundry list of potential tariffs to be removed, including waiving the tariff for plane leases… Boeing has caught a sigh of relief.

“It’s another step toward a de-escalation of the trade war,” said Kok Hoong Wong of Maybank Securities, adding that a trade deal might not be imminent, but certainly, “it would appear the worst may truly be over.”

Bloomberg Economics analysts Chang Shu and Eric Zhu commented on the BBG headline: 

“Exempting critical, hard-to-replace U.S. products from tariffs would be a pragmatic approach that could ease tensions with the U.S. and serve the interests of Chinese industry. Anything that helps lower the temperature in the trade war is also beneficial from the perspective of avoiding broader clashes with the U.S.”

In a separate report, Reuters stated that instead of merely considering exemptions, Beijing has already “exempted” certain U.S. imports from the 125% tariff, citing businesses that were notified by authorities about the change.

“As a quid-pro-quo move, it could provide a potential way to de-escalate tensions,” said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, a senior adviser to the Conference Board’s China Center. 

Montufar-Helu warned: “It’s clear that neither the U.S. nor China want to be the first in reaching out for a deal.”

Earlier in the week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned a US-China trade deal could take 2 to 3 years to finalize. 

Bessent emphasized at a closed-door investor meeting on Tuesday: “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable, at 145% and 125%, so I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. We have an embargo now on both sides.”

Both sides may want a deal to avoid further tariff fallout in their respective economies, but neither wants to appear desperate on the global stage. China is grappling with shuttered factories and possible ethane supply woes that threaten to roil its core manufacturing economy, while in the U.S., containerized volumes through the Port of Los Angeles are poised for a steep decline in the coming week

Entering 2025, Germany’s economic situation had never been worse: following a 6th consecutive GDP contraction in Q4, the country which was once Europe’s growth dynamo, has contracted for 6 consecutive quarters, the longest recessionary stretch in modern German history (since its 1989 reunification).

But if anyone had hoped that the recent German pro-debt “revolution” in which Berlin eliminated its long-standing “debt brake” and unleashed an unlimited, debt-funded “defense” spending spree courtesy of an anti-democratic, fiscal stimulus putsch, which was rammed through in the final days of the outgoing government (even as the top political party in the new government campaigned on precisely the opposite plaform) meant that Germany would finally record some modest growth, will be very disappointed.

Earlier today, the German government slashed its economic growth forecast yet again, and now sees stagnation in 2025 instead of a 0.3% expansion as its had previously. The reason: why blame Trump of course, or as Reuters put it, “uncertainty from global trade disputes is set to hobble growth and dampen investment.”

Exports are expected to fall by 2.2% this year, following a 1.1% decline in 2024. Next year, exports are expected to rise by 1.3%, but they won’t since by then most German export markets will be in an even worse recession. Earlier this month, German economic institutes cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.1% from the 0.8% expected in September, taking into consideration initial U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars.

Germany was the only G7 economy that failed to grow for the last two years, and the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump could put Europe’s largest economy on track for a third year without growth for the first time in history.

Only, it’s not really Trump. Germany’s energy intensive, export-driven economy was already struggling with high energy costs and weak global demand for its products as foreign companies – mostly China – chipped away at its competitiveness, and destroyed demand for German cars.

And while the US may or may not have stagflation (spoiler alert: it won’t), Germany is now in it, with the government forecasting sticky inflation falling to 2% this year and then to 1.9% next year, down from 2.2% last year, at a time when the economy is contracting.  At the same time, economic weakness will take its toll on the labour market, with the unemployment rate expected to go up to 6.3% this year from 6.0% last year, before falling to 6.2% in 2026.

In other words, the definition of stagflation.

While announcing the figures, Economy Minister Robert Habeck called for the European Union and the U.S. to find a solution on trade but also for the EU to prepare countermeasures if needed.

“Now the German economy is once again facing major challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the United States,” Habeck said in a written statement.

“Given the German economy’s close integration into global supply chains and our high level of foreign trade openness, the new US protectionism could have significant direct and indirect effects on our economic growth,” he said.

For 2026, the government now expects growth of 1%, down slightly from its January forecast of 1.1%, expecting some uptick under the incoming government of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. Spoiler alert: expect yet another downward revision, and a record 4th year of contraction in about a year’s time.

And the cherry on top: just as Germany desperately needs a much weaker euro, the concurrent collapse in the dollar – which will unleash a surge in US exports just as the Mar-A-Lago accord had stipulated – means the euro will stay strong and only a fresh NIRP cycle by the ECB, one which sends the deposit rate from 2% currently back to sub zero, has any hope of kickstarting growth in what was once Europe’s strongest economy and is now officially the sick man of Europe.

Authored by William Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Fresh off her 2018 upset New York Democratic congressional primary win, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (better known as AOC) and Massachusetts Sen. Edward Markey announced they were launching an ambitious legislative plan called the Green New Deal. 

While people who had a grounding in economic thought found this new initiative to be naïve at best and destructive at worst, nonetheless it has energized American progressives and other environmental true believers.

The goals for the GND were right out of Central Planning Fantasyland, something that is obvious from reading from the website:

The Green New Deal starts with a WWII-type mobilization to address the grave threat posed by climate change, transitioning our country to 100% clean energy by 2030. Clean energy does not include natural gas, biomass, nuclear power or the oxymoron “clean coal.”

The implementation of the Green New Deal will revive the economy, turn the tide on climate change and make wars for oil obsolete. This latter result, in turn, enables a 50% cut in the military budget, since maintaining bases all over the world to safeguard fossil fuel supplies and routes of transportation could no longer be justified. That military savings of several hundred billion dollars per year would go a very long way toward creating green jobs at home.

On top of that, the Green New Deal largely pays for itself in healthcare savings from the prevention of fossil fuel-related diseases, including asthma, heart attacks, strokes and cancer.

Moving to 100% clean energy means many more jobs, a healthier environment and far lower electric costs compared to continued reliance upon fossil fuels. Studies have shown that the technology already exists to achieve 100% clean energy by 2030. And we can speed up the transition by making polluters pay for the damage they’ve caused, starting with a robust carbon fee program.

The Green New Deal is not only a major step towards ending unemployment for good, but also a tool to fight the corporate takeover of our democracy and exploitation of the poor and people of color. Our transition to 100% clean energy will be based on community, worker and public ownership and democratic control of our energy system, rather than maximizing profits for energy corporations, banks and hedge funds.

We need to treat clean energy as a human right and a common good. We also need a just transition to provide resources to the low-income communities and communities of color most impacted by climate change.

The Green New Deal will provide assistance to workers and local communities that now have workers employed in the fossil fuel industry and to the developing world as it responds to climate-change damage caused by the industrial world.

The idea that, in five years, the entire grid will consist of electricity powered by windmills and solar panels, with more electricity being produced in 2030 than is currently generated using fuels such as coal and natural gas is preposterous on its face. However, the framers of the GND are not done, as they are promising a cornucopia of jobs and wealth:

The Green New Deal includes an Economic Bill of Rights, which ensures all citizens the right to employment through a Full-Employment Program that will create 20 million jobs by implementing a nationally funded, but locally controlled direct-employment initiative. We will replace unemployment offices with local employment offices offering public sector jobs that are “stored” in job banks in order to take up any slack in private sector employment.

The GND proponents believe they can accomplish a complete transition of America’s energy production by government fiat and through massive tax-fed subsidies. Of course, this kind of largesse needs legislation behind it and the true believers—led by AOC herself—settled on the infamous (and hilariously named) Inflation Reduction Act. In fact, AOC served as a cheerleader for what was the cornerstone measure of the Biden administration, one that supposedly would create nine million jobs and totally transform the US economy.

However, the promised transformation never occurred. Price inflation remained high, and none of the lofty goals came close to being reached, nor is there the remotest possibility that all of these utopian promises will be fulfilled five years from now. Forget those thousands of EV charging stations that were supposed to be built, or other promises that failed to get past the paper on which they were written. And there is good reason for why the GND and the Inflation Reduction Act have failed other than for the lack of political will.

Austrian economics offers the following explanation: one cannot ignore the issues behind economic calculation. More than a century ago, Ludwig von Mises warned in Socialism that the lack of a social mechanism built upon private property, profits and losses, and market prices would doom any socialist plans. As he noted in Bureaucracy, economic planning requires what he called a “common denominator” that would guide the planners:

In the capitalist system all designing and planning is based on the market prices. Without them all the projects and blueprints of the engineers would be a mere academic pastime. They would demonstrate what could be done and how. But they would not be in a position to determine whether the realization of a certain project would really increase material well-being or whether it would not, by withdrawing scarce factors of production from other lines, jeopardize the satisfaction of more urgent needs, that is, of needs considered more urgent by the consumers. The guide of economic planning is the market price. The market prices alone can answer the question whether the execution of a project P will yield more than it costs, that is, whether it will be more useful than the execution of other conceivable plans which cannot be realized because the factors of production required are used for the performance of project P.

The Green New Deal and its accompanying legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act—have been based upon the belief that government agents can identify problems and impose solutions by directing resources through command-and-control. While their system gives a nod to prices and private ownership, at best, the organizational structure would resemble what came out of Italy and Germany in the 1930s, or Fascism. Profits and market prices don’t guide that system; indeed, the organizers of the GND and the IRA see profits and market prices as hindrances to their plans, for they represent the capitalist scourge of placing profits above people.

Yet, as Mises noted, the system will grind to a near halt without the “common denominator” of market prices, and that is what we have seen. While New York Times columnist Ezra Klein laments the lack of progress made by the Biden administration to carry out its grandiose plans, it also is clear that he fails to understand the roots of that failure:

Delay has become the default setting of American government. The 2021 infrastructure law was supposed to pump hundreds of billions into roads, bridges, rural broadband, electric vehicle chargers. By 2024, few of its projects were finished or installed. That wasn’t because Biden or his team wanted to run for re-election on the backs of news releases rather than ribbon cuttings. But the administration didn’t make the changes necessary to deliver on a time frame the public could feel. Many members of Biden’s staff now bitterly regret it. That includes Sullivan, who described his experience as “profoundly radicalizing.”

“Whether it’s infrastructure or submarines or energy generation or transmission lines or chip fabs — it is crazy the extent to which we have clogged up our delivery,” Sullivan told me. “Part of it is laws and regulations. Part of it is the self-deterrence of caution. Part of it is litigation. Part of it is complacency. Part of it is bureaucracy. But what I encountered in my four years as national security adviser was a constant and growing set of obstacles to getting anything done fast. It was a huge frustration. Huge.”

Indeed, the vast regulatory system that is the very pride of the progressive movement of the past 120 years plays a part in the inability of governments to carry out many of their grandiose schemes. But it is much more than just regulation; without market prices and the prospects of profits and losses, the government planners tasked with implementing these programs are unable to make rational economic decisions. When their own fiat decision-making process runs headlong into the regulatory system that was created to deter private enterprise from building profitable projects, what remains is a wealth-killing stalemate.

The Green New Deal has not failed because of a lack of political will or because government regulators were too good at their jobs. It failed because it is based upon a socialistic model of command-and-control akin to the former Soviet Union. 

Mises told us that very thing 100 years ago and world events since then have only confirmed he was telling the truth.

As Tesla continues to dominate the global EV conversation, a wave of upstart and established players—many of them based in China—are rising fast, offering compelling alternatives based on affordability, innovation, and scale. A recent comparative study by Slot.Day lays bare the shifting dynamics in the EV landscape, assessing automakers across sales, search interest, safety, price, and electric range.

Leading the charge is BYD, which now tops the list as the most viable EV alternative to Tesla, accrording to a new report by Slot.Day. 

With over 2.6 million units sold and more than 600,000 monthly Google searches, BYD blends scale with visibility. Prices range from a modest $13,900 to a luxury-tier $65,830, while its vehicles achieve an average 445 km range and top safety ratings. It’s a rare mix of affordability, mass appeal, and performance—an EV juggernaut grounded in realism rather than aspiration.

In second place, SAIC Maxus is perhaps the most underrated name on the list. It offers the lowest entry-level EV at just $4,460—a figure that borders on the absurd in today’s market—and backs it up with a perfect 5-star safety score and a respectable 365 km range. This kind of value-driven engineering speaks directly to practical consumers rather than subsidy-chasing status seekers.

The Slot.Day report says that Changan, in third, makes its mark with a stellar 95% adult occupant protection rating and a 450 km range. While not yet globally synonymous with electric innovation, its performance metrics suggest it soon might be. The Deepal SL03 has particularly impressed in the mid-price market, starting around $16,400.

Further down the list, Wuling ranks fourth thanks to astonishing sales of over 370,000 units and a starting price of just $6,400. Though its average range is a modest 300 km, it thrives in dense urban environments where range anxiety is minimal. The tiny but mighty Wuling Hongguang Mini EV proves that minimalist mobility has a devoted customer base.

Aion stands out with the longest average range at 520 km and remains price-competitive, offering models between $17,800 and $29,000. Though not fully ANCAP-tested, its high safety rating (4.6 out of 5) and expanding lineup push it into fifth place.

Outside China, few non-domestic brands crack the top rankings. Volkswagen Group, despite strong brand recognition and more than 1.6 million monthly searches, is weighed down by high pricing and middling EV sales. Its ID.4 maintains the group’s reputation but struggles to outpace nimbler rivals.

Nio, Leapmotor, and Geely round out the top ten with mixed results—each showing promise in select metrics but lacking the comprehensive strength to push into the top tier. Nio appeals to premium buyers, while Leapmotor targets the budget segment with modest ranges and excellent safety. Geely, versatile but uneven, finds itself in a middle ground that may appeal to some but excite few.

Hyundai, the sole Korean entry, closes the list at tenth. Despite solid safety marks and over 860,000 monthly searches, it lags in sales and innovation compared to its Chinese peers. Its Ioniq series shows promise but faces fierce competition from more agile, lower-cost challengers.

The broader message from this data? The center of gravity in the EV world is shifting East, driven not by regulation or ESG posturing, but by market forces—price, safety, and efficiency. Tesla remains the aspirational brand, but for millions of global buyers, especially those not chasing subsidies or status, it’s these emerging names—often quietly efficient, fiercely cost-effective, and proudly pragmatic—that are shaping the real electric revolution, the study concluded.

A spokesperson said: “Electric vehicle shoppers today are showing a clear shift in priorities. What once revolved around brand recognition is now driven by a mix of everyday considerations—price, range, safety, and availability. The data points to a maturing market where buyers are more willing to explore newer names and lesser-known models if the value is clear. It’s no longer just about who made the car, but what it offers in real terms.”

You can access the full study research here.