By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

Clean, green renewables are on the rise. Coal, the dirtiest fuel, is dying. Or so the energy transition line goes. The reality, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), is that global coal production, consumption, and seaborne volumes are all at all-time highs in 2023.

Coal isn’t dying yet globally, just in the West. It’s still alive and kicking in Asia — and still growing globally as a result. That’s bad news for greenhouse gas emissions, but good news for owners of the dry bulk ships that transport coal, particularly as America exports more of its own mining output via long-haul voyages to Asia.

“Demand to ship coal has been a good support for the dry bulk market over the first half of the year,” said ship brokerage BRS on Thursday. “Despite coal demand in Europe and North America resuming its downward trend, Asia has provided an offset as demand continues to grow there.”

Seaborne coal volumes are predicted to reach 1,335,000 million metric tons this year, topping 2019’s record of 1,331,000 tons, the IEA said in its recently released midyear outlook.

BRS estimated that coal shipping demand measured in ton-miles (volume multiplied by distance) rose 9% in January-July versus the same period last year.

Record consumption and production

The IEA estimates that global coal demand will reach 8.39 million tons this year, up slightly from last year’s all-time high. Three out of every 4 tons of coal will be consumed in China, India, and Southeast Asia. China alone is expected to account for 56% of global consumption.

“As Europe cuts down on its coal-fired power generation to be in line with its green energy transition, China and India have continued to add further capacity at levels that far exceed the current pace of power plant retirements,” said ship brokerage SSY on Monday.

SSY noted that 86% of Chinese coal plants are less than 20 years old, and 52% are 10-20 years old. “Considering that the average lifetime of a coal power plant is 40 years, a full capacity phaseout like the one targeted by Europe is unlikely to be replicated,” said SSY.

On the supply front, the IEA expects global coal production to reach a new high this year, topping last year’s record of 8.63 million tons, with China, India and Indonesia accounting for over 70% of the total.

According to BRS, rising domestic production in India reduced that country’s coal imports by 7% year-on-year in January to July, to 134 million tons. BRS said the drop mostly affected demand for Indonesian coal aboard Capesize bulkers (vessels with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons or DWT).

In contrast, this year’s high Chinese domestic production is being complemented by higher imports, a plus for dry bulk shipping.

China imported 211.8 million tons of coal in the first seven months of 2023, a 77% surge from the same period last year, said BRS. Indonesia has been China’s biggest seaborne supplier, followed by Russia and Australia.

US exports higher share of production

The U.S. was once the world’s largest coal producer but has fallen down the ranks. Current production is less than half the 2008 peak. Even so, America’s exports are now on the rise. Weaker domestic demand (due to environmental regulations and cheap natural gas) leaves more production to sell overseas.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the U.S. will export 90 million tons of coal this year, up 16% versus 2022. Exports are projected to rise further, to 94 million tons, in 2024.

The EIA expects 22% of U.S. production to be exported next year. In 2008, when U.S. coal output peaked, only 7% of production was exported.

US coal CEOs focus on exports

International sales prospects were highlighted by executives of U.S.-listed coal producers on second-quarter conference calls during recent weeks.

Paul Lang, CEO of Arch Resources, said that around 20% of his company’s production is sold in North America, with 80% sold in the seaborne market — half to Asia, the rest to Europe and South America.

“What we’ve seen is an ongoing, significantly increased amount going to Asia,” said Lang. “It wasn’t all that long ago that we had minimal volumes going into the Asian market.”

According to Deck Slone, Arch Resources’ senior vice president of strategy, “We focus a huge amount of attention on building out that Asian presence. That’s where the growth is going to be.”

Lang added: “If we ultimately have to, we’re ready to go 100% exports.”

Mitesh Thakkar, CEO of Consol Energy, said exports accounted for 78% of Consol’s second-quarter recurring revenue. Consol is pursuing “a strategic shift toward export demand growth,” he said.

Bob Brathwaite, Consol’s senior vice president of marketing, said, “We’ve shipped cargoes to new end users into India, into China and also into Indonesia.” 

Joseph Craft, CEO of Alliance Resource Partners, said, “We’re totally focused on the international markets.”

According to Jim Grench, CEO of Peabody Energy, “We see the seaborne markets as the growth markets in demand, for both metallurgical and thermal coal. As we’ve stated many times — and it hasn’t changed — our focus is on the seaborne markets.”

Canal delays positive for shipping rates

Most U.S. coal exports headed to Asia are loaded aboard Panamaxes (bulkers with capacity of 60,000-99,000 DWT) and routed through the Panama Canal.

This year, drought conditions in Panama are causing extensive delays and reroutings. These inefficiencies render the U.S. export trend even more positive to Panamax freight rates, because delays and rerouting tie up more vessel capacity.

Ship brokerage Braemar reported Tuesday that 80 bulk carriers were waiting to transit the canal, up from 59 at the end of July.

Braemar expects bulkers returning from Asia to avoid the Panama Canal and instead go via the Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope on their ballast (empty) legs. “These longer ballasts should tighten the supply of tonnage in the Atlantic and provide support [to rates] in the coming months, particularly as grain enquiries in the U.S. Gulf pick up going into September.”

Canal-related diversions should also extend Panamax bulkers’ laden (full) legs. 

BRS reported earlier this month that “coal-laden ships out of the Atlantic are deviating from their preferred Panama Canal route due to increasing transit times. Any changes to the fronthaul trade routes will increase voyage days from about 35 days via the Panama Canal to 50 days via the Suez Canal for coal loaded at the U.S. port of Burnside [Louisiana] to discharge in Rizhao, China.”

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner private military company, has popped up in Africa, and issued his first full video address to the public since the mutiny events of June 23-24.

While he didn’t confirm his precise whereabouts, he references the following in the video clip: “The temperature is +50 – everything as we like. The Wagner PMC makes Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa – more free. Justice and happiness – for the African people, we’re making life a nightmare for ISIS and Al-Qaeda and other bandits,” Prigozhin said as cited in Reuters.

First proper Prigozhin video since the mutiny. He claims he’s in Africa “making Russia even greater on all continents.” https://t.co/P1TqX0ijAN pic.twitter.com/QkAx5IbMdZ

— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 21, 2023

It appears to be a recruiting video, given he said the group is in the process of bolstering its ranks and “will fulfil the tasks that were set.” A telephone number for Wagner offices is presented in the Russian mercenary outfit’s postings of the video on social media. 

Prigozhin’s legal fate and standing with the Kremlin is still unclear. But what is clear is that he has been seen inside Russia despite reports that he was “exiled” (at least initially) to Belarus. Late last month he was spotted at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, which was hosted by President Vladimir Putin.

After weeks ago there was a coup in Niger, generally seen as an anti-US move, a big question which has remained is whether Wagner would be invited in by the junta leaders. The West has worried that Russia will use the political instability to make further inroads to central and west Africa.

Currently, Wagner is believed most active in places like Libya, Mali, and Sudan, and the Central African Republic (CAR). Secretary of State Antony Blinken early this month accused Wagner group of seeking to take advantage of the instability in Niger. “I think what happened, and what continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but… they tried to take advantage of it,” he recently told BBC. 

Alarmingly, while both French and American troops are in the region, Wagner mercenaries are just next door from Niger in Mali. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had positively celebrated the coup immediately after, and blasted past French and Western colonialism in Africa:

In a long message posted to social media, Prigozhin blamed the situation in Niger on the legacy of colonialism and alleged, without evidence, that Western nations were sponsoring terrorist groups in the country. Niger was once a French colony and, before this week’s putsch, it had been one of the few democracies in the region.

Map of African countries that have signed military agreements with Russia pic.twitter.com/CKlAC9zePv

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) August 3, 2023

But those few African leaders who are currently standing with Niger’s coup leaders warn of NATO influence instead, remembering the disastrous legacy of US-NATO intervention in Libya in 2011, which served to proliferate terrorism and foreign arms across the region.

By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

August was expected to be a risky month, and so far it has delivered. Now technicals are starting to look shaky and investors are bulking up their hedges as the rest of the month still promises plenty of risk events.

After an almost relentless drop since the start of the month, the Stoxx 600 is nearing technical oversold territory, though it remains in the range that’s been in place since April. For the euro-area benchmark Euro Stoxx 50, things are looking trickier after the index exited its uptrend in place since the start of the year, while testing a major support around 4200 and its 200-day moving average.

“Markets are being hit by the perfect storm, amid surging rates, worsening economic data in China, poor summer liquidity and a buyers’ strike,” says Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau. “Soft-landing complacency is gone, not uncertainty.”

Equities were pricing in a rosy outlook at the start of the month, with peak rates in sight and a resilient US economy pointing to a soft landing. But the recent surge in bond yields, combined with still-hawkish rhetoric from central bankers and a deteriorating outlook in China, are challenging the view.

Investors were forced to chase the rally earlier this year; now they are bulking up their hedges. The put/call ratio spiked to highest since March last week, while volatility has jumped to the most elevated level since May in the US and in Europe.

“Though supports have not yet been broken on most indexes, we have to underline that VIX is now in a bullish trend,” says DayByDay technical analyst Valerie Gastaldy. “It is a warning sign that indexes are fragile.” 

Money managers are unlikely to keep cool in the coming summer weeks, as more risk events may further upset the mood. The Jackson Hole Symposium on August 24-26 could offer some clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the economic outlook. In the meantime, investors are seeking refuge in cash. Year-to-date inflows to money-market funds have already exceeded the record of 2020, reaching $925 billion, according to BofA, citing EPFR Global data.

“We maintain our view that European equities will fall by up to 10% through the summer,” say Morgan Stanley strategists led by Graham Secker. “Proverbial soft-landing hopes are likely to be challenged short-term by EU and China weakness, medium-term by the lagged impact of higher rates and tighter credit.”

 
To be sure, this might just be an episode of summer volatility and some, like Julius Baer strategist Mathieu Racheter, recommend buying the dip as they see limited contagion risk from China. He still favors stocks with quality growth characteristics, as well as defensives.

“We think it’s a buying opportunity,” Racheter says, “We continue to believe that the secular bull market is still alive and that markets will move higher into year-end after the seasonally weak period of August to October.”

It is not the first time the US State Department has urged Americans in Belarus to exit the country, but certainly the alarm is growing louder as neighboring countries move to seal more borders with the sanctioned country which has aided Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine.

A Monday statement by the Biden administration has told all US citizens still in Belarus to leave immediately, further warning against travel there for any reason.

The neighboring states of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have increased security and military deployments to the Belarusian border, particularly on concerns of Russian Wagner fighters having a major presence there.

“Do not travel to Belarus due to Belarusian authorities’ continued facilitation of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, the potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus,” the State Department wrote in the fresh warning.

Days ago Lithuania closed two of its six border crossings, while Poland only has one border crossing with Belarus open, and Latvia has two – and these governments have said more closures could come in the near future.

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which Belarus had limited participation in by allowing Russian forces staging ground, neighboring countries had accused strongman Alexander Lukashenko of ‘weaponizing migrants’ by literally flying Middle Easterners in while pushing them through EU border checkpoints.

“U.S. citizens are not permitted to enter Poland overland from Belarus. Do not travel to Russia or to Ukraine,” the US statement said further. The US maintains a scaled down embassy presence in Minsk and is set up to assist with emergencies.

In an interview days ago with state outlet BelTA, Lukashenko said his country stands ready to use nuclear weapons “if aggression is launched against us.”

He said, “If aggression against our country is launched from the side of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, we will immediately respond with everything we have… And the strike will be unacceptable.”

“NATO stands behind Poland, Lithuania, Latvia. We certainly understand that the forces are incomparable,” he explained. “But we will deliver an unacceptable strike against them and they will receive unacceptable harm, damage. It is what our security concept is based on.” Since last spring, Russia has based tactical nukes at Belarusian bases.

Authored by Jonathan Miltimore via The Epoch Times,

A new folk song with edgy lyrics is causing quite a stir in America, and it’s not “Try That in a Small Town.”

Oliver Anthony’s blue-collar anthem “Rich Men North of Richmond” has exploded across the internet, racking up 15 million views in its very first week after debuting on Aug. 9.

Mr. Anthony’s mournful ballad has an almost Depression-era feel. Sporting a bushy red beard and a twangy guitar, the Virginia native channels the struggles of working-class Americans while strumming away in the woods in front of what appears to be a hunting blind.

“I’ve been sellin’ my soul, workin’ all day/Overtime hours for [expletive] pay/So I can sit out here and waste my life away/Drag back home and drown my troubles away.

“It’s a damn shame what the world’s gotten to/For people like me and people like you/Wish I could just wake up and it not be true/But it is, oh, it is.

“Livin’ in the new world/With an old soul/These rich men north of Richmond/Lord knows they all just wanna have total control/Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do/And they don’t think you know, but I know that you do/’Cause your dollar ain’t [expletive] and it’s taxed to no end/’Cause of rich men north of Richmond.”

The song has resonated broadly with listeners, but it has also become a sort of political bellwether with lyrics that take aim at taxes, inflation, and welfare.

The Los Angeles Times notes Mr. Anthony’s song has been criticized by leftists, who’ve dubbed the tune an “alt-right anthem” that’s “offensive” and “fatphobic.”

The Guardian, meanwhile, accused Mr. Anthony of “punching down” and mocking the poor.

Right-wing pundits have seen things differently, including Matt Walsh, who called the song “raw and authentic.”

“One interesting thing about ‘Rich Men North Of Richmond’ is that he (rightly) attacks the welfare state,” Mr. Walsh wrote in a tweet.

“Many conservatives think that it isn’t populist to criticize entitlements but in reality blue collar Americans are sick of having their money stolen to prop up a system that functions as nothing more than a vote buying scheme for Democrats.”

It’s not exactly a surprise that Mr. Anthony’s hit song would be received differently by the left and the right, which increasingly operate in different cultural ecosystems with totally different values.

But some are getting a bit carried away in the effort to turn Mr. Anthony’s blue-collar tune into a right-wing screed.

Wikipedia’s since edited page on “Rich Men North of Richmond” initially claimed that “the song’s lyrics revolve around common right-wing themes such as inflation ….”

Did you catch that? Inflation apparently is now “a right-wing talking point” instead of an economic phenomenon broadly defined today as a general and sustained increase in consumer prices and a decline in the value of money.

The claim is bizarre.

There’s nothing partisan about inflation, after all. It affects everyone. Rich and poor. Republican, Democrat, and Independent. People of every sex, race, and creed.

For decades, the term “silent killer” has been used by scholars, economists, and financial asset managers to describe inflation because of the gradual and often unnoticed erosion of purchasing power it causes.

Inflation has destroyed civilizations (Rome) and ushered in totalitarian regimes (Mao in China), which is why it has been decried by an array of intellectuals who were hardly “right-wingers.”

The writer Ernest Hemingway, who moved to Spain during the Spanish Civil War to oppose Franco and wrote for Pravda because he hated fascism so much, called inflation “the first panacea for a mismanaged nation.” (The second, he added, was war.)

John Maynard Keynes, the staunch anti-conservative English economist who became arguably the most influential macroeconomic thinker in history, warned in 1919 (pdf) that Vladimir Lenin “is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency.”

“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens,” Keynes wrote.

“The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.”

More recently, Lawrence Summers, the former president of Harvard and an economist that served in both the Clinton and Obama administrations, warned that inflation is undermining confidence in the American political system.

“It’s clear that inflation is significantly contributing to distrust in the institutions and to pessimism about the future,” Mr. Summers recently told The Harvard Gazette.

Clearly, one needn’t be a right-winger to be concerned about inflation. Anyone who goes to McDonald’s and is stunned to see a $50 receipt after ordering a few burgers, fries, and drinks has a right to be concerned over the erosion of their money.

None of this is to say that there are no political undertones to Mr. Anthony’s song. There clearly are, and this fits snuggly in the long tradition of country music.

Anyone who has ever listened to Hank Williams Jr. or David Allan Coe or any number of artists can tell you weaving poverty and politics into songs is hardly out of the ordinary in the country music genre. Consider these lyrics from a popular song covered by the band Alabama, “Song of the South”:

“Cotton on the roadside, cotton in the ditch/We all picked the cotton but we never got rich/Daddy was a veteran, a Southern Democrat/They oughta get a rich man to vote like that. … Well somebody told us Wall Street fell/But we were so poor that we couldn’t tell/Cotton was short and the weeds were tall/But Mr. Roosevelt’s a-gonna save us all”

The song is more overtly political than Mr. Anthony’s—it mentions a political party and president—but you’ll find no mention of it being left-wing on Wikipedia’s page of the song.

The primary difference, of course, is that Alabama’s song praised government anti-poverty programs, whereas Mr. Anthony’s song attacks them.

Sadly, it’s quite possible that we’ve reached a point where any kind of criticism of the federal system is considered “right wing” by many. (After all, even everyday activities such as working out to getting up early have been described as such.)

But adding inflation to this list of partisan topics isn’t just unwise but dangerous. There is, I suppose, one silver lining.

The labeling of inflation as a right-wing talking point is a tacit admission that the real cause of inflation isn’t corporate greed or Taylor Swift. Inflation is a policy of the powers in Washington, DC, who are printing trillions of dollars.

If pointing out basic economic realities makes one “right wing,” I’m not sure what that says about the left.

In a move that shouldn’t surprise readers, the US Navy is wasting even more taxpayers’ funds to replace new deck guns of the Zumwalt-class stealth destroyer with missile tubes to house hypersonic weapons.

“USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) arrived in Pascagoula, Mississippi., today [Saturday] to enter a modernization period and receive technology upgrades including the integration of the Conventional Prompt Strike weapon system,” USNI News has learned, citing a statement from the service. It added, “The upgrades will ensure Zumwalt remains one of the most technologically advanced and lethal ships in the US Navy.” 

Naval warfare journalist and commentator Chris Cavas photographed the guided-missile destroyer as it arrived at Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula. 

USS ZUMWALT DDG1000 arrived at Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula MS 19 for a major 2-year modernization that will see large launch tubes for hypersonic Conventional Prompt Strike missiles replace the two 155mm Advanced Gun Systems. The Z boat joins sister LYNDON B JOHNSON … pic.twitter.com/oynInjAQ3U

— Chris Cavas (@CavasShips) August 21, 2023

We have told readers in two notes, “US Navy’s “Death Star” Destroyer Will Be Armed With Laser Guns And Hypersonic Missiles” and “US Navy’s Zumwalt Stealth Destroyers To Get Hypersonic Missiles” about the push to swap out existing twin 155 mm Advanced Gun Systems and replace them with four 87-inch missile tubes. 

Each tube will hold three Common Hypersonic Glide Bodies (C-HGB) hypersonic missiles. However, the Congressional Budget Office states, “The United States has not yet fielded such weapons [hypersonic missiles], for both scientific and policy reasons.”

Besides the Navy building missile tubes for missiles it doesn’t have, the most expensive destroyer ever built for the service has had a series of mechanical failures over the years. Also, it was delivered to the service seven years late and exceeded shipbuilding costs by over 50%. 

This is the latest saga of taxpayers’ dollars thrown into the abyss, and there’s still no clarity on when the US fields hypersonic weapons.

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com,

China is expanding its presence in the global LNG trading world, with Chinese traders setting up new or expanding their trading desks in Singapore and London, Reuters writes.

This would put China in direct competition with LNG trade leaders including Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, and Equinor, the report pointed out.

The trading presence expansion comes even as China secures more long-term supply of the superchilled fuel, the latest deals coming from Qatar and the United States.

Even so, Chinese importers are not relying on long-term deals only, even if they have swelled to some 40 million tons annually since last year. The amount represents a 50% increase.

Per the Reuters report, more than 10 Chinese energy trading companies are hiring more traders or expanding their trading desks while state-owned CNOOC plans to open an office in London.

Speaking of CNOOC, the Chinese major said this month that Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project will start production as scheduled before the end of this year. CNOOC has a 10% stake in the Russian project.

“We’re going to see a paradigm shift in Chinese companies from being total net importers to (being) more international and domestic trading players,” said Trident LNG head of global trading, Toby Copson, as quoted by Reuters.

The core motive for the trading presence expansion appears to be energy security—the focus of China’s energy policies.

“Supply security is still at the heart of our business activities. Trading capability is one of the enablers … to help us better deal with market swings,” according to PetroChina International’s global head of LNG trading, Zhang Yaoyu.

As a result of this expansion, Reuters notes, the total volume of LNG contracted by Chinese traders could reach 100 million tons annually by 2026. That would mean an excess supply of some 8 million tons for that year, per Poten & Partners. On the other hand, ICIS sees the amount as falling short of demand by 5-6 million tons.

Authored by Kurt Schilchter via Townhall.com,

The word “fight” in the title of this column is intentional – Ron DeSantis is walking into the Octagon alone in the first GOP primary debate. The deck is stacked against him. He’s in a half-dozen or so gunsights. It’s Ronbo against the world. He best be ready.

Let us assume that Donald Trump takes my advice and makes the smart strategic choice – because Trump is known for always making the smart strategic choice just like Hunter Biden is known for his sobriety – of not attending the debate.

DeSantis is the leader of the also-ran pack, the only conceivable rival to Trump at the moment, and he will be the guy each of the primary lilliputians is looking to take down by creating A Moment that will catapult them from also-also-ran to just also-ran.

This complicates things for the Florida governor. Everyone else on stage will have one target, him. Alligator Ron will have three.

His first target is his opponents onstage.

Ron has to demonstrate dominance over each of his rivals.

That’s easy with Mike Pence, who always gives up and gives in to the establishment. The one time he stood firm was in rejecting Trump’s kooky electoral thing, but just last week he went belly-up for the frame job the enemy has launched against his ex-boss. Pence is one of those cons who pretends that passivity in the face of communist enemies is morally superior to crushing them. He makes submission into a fetish, and if he was not so uptight, he’d probably have a regular dominatrix. 

“Mike, the time of the soft Republican is over. You should retire, teach Sunday school, and build birdhouses.”

Nikki Haley is the poster girl for 2005 conservatism, and DeSantis will need to dismiss her agenda of a return to the tired old GOP combo of wars n’ tax cuts for corporations that want to turn our kids trans. She’s all in on something-something Ukraine/Putin bad, that establishment mish-mash of cliches and fuzzy fake-tuff pseudo-thinking that substitutes for an actual national strategy that supports American interests. Nukey Nikki is all in for another Afghanistan, except with borscht, and you know that if her crew ever gets the wheel we’ll eventually be seeing CH47s lifting off from the Kyiv embassy roof. But then someone who was on the Boeing board is probably A-OK with dumping billions into the bloody Slavic blender with no articulated strategy for success. Yet she won’t fight at home. When Disney decided to pervertize our kids, Nikki sided with Disney because corporations are always right and the job of Americans is to obey.

“Nikki, I’ve been to war and if the voters choose me they will know with absolute certainty that their sons and daughters will never die in another useless one, and that I will use every bit of my power as president to fight back against big corporations that want to impose their San Francisco values on normal families.”

Tim Scott is no threat. His argument is “I have a neat origin story” and “I am nice.” But what has he ever actually done? The biggest thing he did as a senator was failing to pass his Defund the Police Lite bill. Oh, and he echoes bogus Democrat race-baiting.

“Tim, I first had my doubts about you when you supported the Democrat defund the police movement, but I really lost respect for you when you decided to repeat what you knew were Democrat and regime media lies about Florida history standards. Our voters do not need a candidate who joins with Kamala Harris to tell the lie that Republicans like slavery.”

Then there’s Chris Christie, whose only rational reason for being in this debate is to get access to the green room’s snack table. Christie will go after DeSantis because, deep down – and you can get very deep in Christie – he is trying to win back the love of Donald Trump. Sadly, we all have to endure this spurned platonic lover psychodrama. But his failure as a governor disqualifies him just as much as his refusal to take our side in the cultural war fight. Christie is a has-been who is more accurately described as a “never was.”

“Chris, your own state knew you best and when you finally left under a cloud of scandal you were polling on par with chlamydia. All you have is complaints about more successful Republicans, but I noticed that you don’t seem to have a problem with Biden. Just sign your MSNBC contract and get out of the way of those of us who know how to win.”

Optionally, DeSantis can refer to him as “Garden State Lizzo.”

Vivek Ramaswamy is an interesting cat with some good ideas and some really poorly-thought out ones. His whole “China, you can have Taiwan after 2028” initiative is, well, innovative. He’s clearly running for Secretary of Keeping It Real or a similar sinecure in a future Trump administration. He is also about 12 years old.

“Vivek, you’re a smart guy with no experience but a bright future once you learn how the world works. Go do a hitch in the Marines, kid, then maybe at least win a city council election and get a little salty before you try for the White House. America does not need a president who never watched ‘The Brady Bunch” after school on a UHF station or made a call on a rotary phone.”

Doug Burgum, the governor of East Dakota or something, is another sensible n’ sober, Republican pol who would be just fine if this was 1996 and our biggest problem was a priapic president. He’s not a bad guy, but there’s no crying need for another generic  milquetoast zillionaire trying to buy his way into the White House. 

“Doug, I turned a purple state deep red. You kept a deep red state deep red. That’s fine, I guess, but the last time we nominated a soft rich guy he got punked live on TV by Candy Crowley.”

Ron’s second target is Joe Biden

Biden often seems forgotten in all the online battling about the primary. Once DeSantis disposes of his competition on stage, he should press his real selling point, which is that he stands the best chance of beating the desiccated old pervert in the White House.

“I turned a purple state deep red. My competitors have never done that. Nikki, Tim, Doug, and Mike all come from safe red states. Chris tried to turn blue New Jersey red and failed hard. Vivek has never even run in an election before, much less won one. And the Dems agree that I am the threat to Joe Biden stumbling his way to another term – the Dems are not spending their money to beat my opponents. They are spending money to make sure I am not on the GOP ticket because I am the only Republican they are afraid of.”

And Ron’s last target must be Donald Trump.

He has to make the case about why he is the better choice. On policy, both are similar enough that it’s not clear how much traction RDS would get pointing out that DJT screwed up COVID by hugging Fauci, failed to fire Wray, and so forth. On balance, America under Trump was a mere million times better than under the corrupt President Daddyshowers. The real case for Ron DeSantis is that he can win the general and Trump can’t. He should proceed under the assumption that most Republicans want to actually win, instead of wallowing in glorious defeat, and that Republican moderates who despise Biden but actively hate Trump for his mean tweets will come home if someone who is not orange is on the GOP ticket.

“Maybe it’s not right or fair or rational, but about 53% of Americans will never vote for Trump. That’s the reality. If we put him on the ticket, we lose. You’re not making a statement by nominating a certain loser. You’re making the Democrats’ day. They are begging you to nominate Donald Trump. Ask yourself why. If you do, say good-bye to the Supreme Court. To your right to keep and bear arms. To free speech. To the right to practice your faith as you see fit. Say hello to more trans tyranny. To more climate hoax insanity that will have you losing your gas-powered car and eating bugs. To more wars. To more taxes. To more crime, and to more chaos. If you want to send a message to Washington, win. Winning is the message. And I have never lost a race and never will.”

I like Ron DeSantis, but there are no freebies in politics. He’s got to win this all on his own, one man against everyone there on-stage with him and off-stage Truthing at him. The stakes could not be higher.

It’s go time.

*  *  *

Follow Kurt on Twitter @KurtSchlichter. Get Inferno, the seventh book in the Kelly Turnbull People’s Republic series of conservative action novels set in America after a notional national divorce, as well as his non-fiction book We’ll Be Back: The Fall and Rise of America.

Oliver Anthony’s anthem for the working class, “Rich Men North Of Richmond,” continues to top the charts on iTunes. On Saturday, he gave a free concert in Moyock, North Carolina, attracting thousands. After the show, he expressed grave concerns about the country’s current direction, suggesting that without significant change, it may not sustain ‘more than another generation.’

Fox News interviewed Christopher Anthony Lunsford (Oliver Anthony’s real name), who provided a message of ‘unity’ — something the Biden administration has struggled with while it promotes differences and divides this nation. He called out “corporate media” and “education,” which is “making everyone identify each other’s differences and not their similarities.” 

Oliver Anthony on why he turned down million-dollar recording deals:

“I just wanna go back to the woods, honestly.” pic.twitter.com/AyIQOfnflq

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) August 21, 2023

Lunsford spoke more on the unity subject while also mentioning: “If we continue on the path that we’re going down now, culturally, we won’t have a country very long — 5 years? 50 years? I don’t know.”

Oliver Anthony knows the score:

“If we continue on the path that we’re going down now, culturally, we won’t have a country very long — 5 years? 50 years? I don’t know.” pic.twitter.com/8CoepgDabr

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) August 21, 2023

As of Monday afternoon, Rich Men North Of Richmond is still the number one iTunes song.

oh, and there’s this headline from Billboard. 

Country legend John Rich said, “Oliver Anthony has the #1 song in America, and I have the #1 record, and neither of us have record deals. I texted Oliver to congratulate him and he responded “God is good!” Yes He is my friend, yes He is❤️ Thank you to all the supporters of our music, it’s truly humbling.” 

Oliver Anthony has the #1 song in America, and I have the #1 record, and neither of us have record deals. I texted Oliver to congratulate him and he responded “God is good!” Yes He is my friend, yes He is❤️ Thank you to all the supporters of our music, it’s truly humbling 🙏 pic.twitter.com/VYyKikA6MP

— John Rich🇺🇸 (@johnrich) August 20, 2023

Last week, Lunsford said he turned down a $8 million deal from stunned music industry executives. He explained this on Facebook in a lengthy post:

People in the music industry give me blank stares when I brush off 8 million dollar offers. I don’t want 6 tour buses, 15 tractor trailers and a jet. I don’t want to play stadium shows, I don’t want to be in the spotlight. I wrote the music I wrote because I was suffering with mental health and depression. These songs have connected with millions of people on such a deep level because they’re being sung by someone feeling the words in the very moment they were being sung. No editing, no agent, no bullshit. Just some idiot and his guitar. The style of music that we should have never gotten away from in the first place.

We noted last week, Is Anyone Surprised? Left-Wing Media Doesn’t Like ‘Rich Men North Of Richmond’… Democrats describe the song as a “right-wing anthem” laced with “conspiracy theories.” 

Perhaps this is why the political elite north of Richmond hate the most viral song in America… It could be because it encourages the unity of the masses. 

If you want to know why the #OliverAnthony song scared the establishment. This. pic.twitter.com/hi9ElAEJCV

— Tacticool Twitorist (@tactictwitorist) August 21, 2023

Watching people from all walks of life connect with Rich Men North of Richmond reminds me that we are not alone in the struggles that we’re facing. Nothing scares them more than us unifying against them.
pic.twitter.com/b9nKEp1tQE

— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) August 17, 2023

… and more from Michael Shellenberger. 

Mainstream journalists say there’s nothing authentic about Oliver Anthony and his hit song, “Rich Men North Of Richmond.” In truth, there’s nothing authentic about mainstream journalists. They spread propaganda, demand censorship, and smear everyone they disagree with as racists pic.twitter.com/pWG32gD7Jl

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) August 18, 2023

Just remember this Ron Paul quote…

Elites have become masters of deceit and spent decades distracting, dividing, and conquering the masses. Maybe this time, the scheme that has left everyone zombified for years is falling apart in front of our eyes as people realize they’ve been brainwashed – manipulated – into a “us” against “them mindset.” Unifying the masses is the worst-case scenario for elites. Queue the next crisis…