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RFK Jr. Says Pennsylvania Officials May Have Fabricated Measles Deaths

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RFK Jr. Says Pennsylvania Officials May Have Fabricated Measles Deaths

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Wednesday that officials in Pennsylvania may have made up deaths that they described as associated with measles.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the Hubert Humphrey building in Washington on August 10, 2026. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

The Pennsylvania Department of Health and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said on Wednesday that Pennsylvania had recorded the first deaths related to measles in 35 years.

“The announcement appears to have been premature, and the deaths may even have been altogether fabricated by one of the Governor’s hopeful staffers,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X. “The Lancaster County Coroner says that it has no record of any measles deaths. State law requires that all measles deaths be reported to the coroner.”

Lancaster County Coroner Steve Diamantoni told news outlets and a county commissioner that his office had not handled any deaths from measles. The office did see an infant who died shortly after birth from spleen laceration, and an autopsy determined that the primary cause of death was the laceration, Diamantoni told the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The pathologist who conducted the autopsy did not feel the death was related to measles, the coroner said. The office, which declined to comment to The Epoch Times, is still investigating the cause of the ruptured spleen.

Kennedy also told reporters in an unrelated press conference in Florida that Pennsylvania officials had not provided information about the deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“We’re trying to figure out … who those deaths were and whether they actually happened,” he said.

Both individuals who died tested positive for measles prior to their deaths and were not vaccinated, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health. One was an infant, the agency said, pointing to Diamantoni’s comments.

The agency said it uses the term “measles-associated” for deaths “when laboratory or epidemiologic evidence of measles is present, but the disease may not be assessed by the medical certifier or coroner to be the immediate cause of death.”

Dr. Debra Bogen, Pennsylvania’s health secretary, said, “As a pediatrician with more than 30 years of caring for children, I have thoroughly reviewed the case investigation information and sadly can confirm that there were two recent measles-associated deaths in Lancaster County, which were reported to the CDC’s measles response team early Tuesday morning.”

Pennsylvania officials have not disclosed any additional details about the second death beyond the person testing positive for measles and being unvaccinated. Bogen and her department did say that not all deaths are referred to a coroner under Pennsylvania law.

A thin-section transmission electron micrograph (TEM) reveals the ultrastructural appearance of a single virus particle, or “virion”, of measles virus. CDC via Getty Images

State law says that any deaths “known or suspected to be due to contagious disease and constituting a public hazard” shall be investigated by a coroner.

State officials also encouraged people to take the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine after announcing the deaths.

“This illness and death from measles is completely preventable,” Shapiro told a briefing in Lancaster on Wednesday.

The minimum age for the MMR vaccine is one year, according to the CDC, although officials in Pennsylvania and some other states allow vaccination as early as six months of age for babies in measles-outbreak areas.

A person walks past a sign at a health center where the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine is administered in Lubbock, Texas, on Feb. 27, 2025. Ronald Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

The deaths were the first associated with measles reported in the United States this year. Three were reported in 2025. Local doctors said those deaths were due to measles, but Kennedy has said the people were already sick, including a girl who was already suffering from mononucleosis.

Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons, a Republican who first highlighted comments from the county coroner, said in a post on X that the information about the infant’s death showed it was with, not from, measles. He also said that state officials should release information on the other death that was described as associated with measles.

“The people of Lancaster County deserve to have transparency over whether there were actually two measles deaths or not,” Parsons said.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 11:40

Stalemate, Not Checkmate

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Stalemate, Not Checkmate

Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Stalemate, not checkmate

CIA Chief Ratcliffe’s 15-minute dialogue in Moscow was reportedly an elevator pitch warning Russia not to support Iran, and not to attack NATO.

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are at a dead end, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic infrastructure – including refineries and large online retailers – are increasingly putting pressure on President Putin. So, Moscow is preparing to escalate its assaults on the country. Russian military presence in Belarus is building up, which could reopen a front towards Kyiv.

Moreover, Putin considers Ukrainian attacks as NATO strikes because the weapons were supplied by the alliance. If Putin were to attack any of the Baltic states, NATO either triggers article 5 and attacks Russia, or it doesn’t. Who knows where either option leads. Escalation would spread the US’ resources thin, after reports that its defence industry is already struggling to replenish the missiles fired in the Iran war. But not doing so would effectively undermine NATO, and Europe’s security architecture.

That’s all still a hypothetical that markets can ignore for now, but the Ukrainian strikes are adding pressure to the energy complex. Ukraine forced another outage at the second-largest Russian gasoline producer, and Moscow will extend the diesel export ban through September according to Reuters’ sources. These supply shocks add to the disruptions from the Iran war.

So, several central banks are now flagging tighter policy to stop the energy shock from transforming into broader-based price pressures. Yesterday, Schnabel said that the ECB must raise rates further to prevent second-round effects early on.

The Bank of Japan’s Himino argues for a similar pro-active approach as inflationary pressures are picking up, to avoid that policymakers need to hike more aggressively later. And yesterday’s high Australian inflation print is adding to speculation that the also RBA may need to raise rates again soon – we still have a hike pencilled in for November, but the inflation print could accelerate policymakers’ timeline if it is confirmed by other incoming data.

As we’ve flagged before, time is not on central bankers’ side. The longer the Iran war lasts and the longer disruptions in energy markets persist, the stronger the inflationary impact will be.

The Qatari prime minister will travel to Tehran today to try to revive the dialogue between the US and Iran. However, the US’ change of pace to low-scale military conflict and economic warfare reduces the odds of a quick resolution. The Justice Department is preparing to revive prize courts, to improve the efficacy of the US naval blockade.

Protests and panic buying of food and fuel indicates that the war is starting to take a real toll on the Iranian population. Yet, the US may not succeed in isolating Iran economically without the support of other economic superpowers – including China. China’s ongoing trade relationship with Iran may be just enough for the country to hang on. So, a Ukraine-Russia style stalemate looks increasingly more likely than a checkmate.

This also means that oil markets continue to rely on inventories to fix a flow problem. Our energy strategists have raised their forecasts for Brent and WTI crude. But they believe that this will particularly be a problem in refined products, where refinery throughput is a key constraint.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 11:00

Viral Sensation Ox Alpha Model Revealed As GLM-5.3-Flash, Running Entirely On Chinese Chips

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Viral Sensation Ox Alpha Model Revealed As GLM-5.3-Flash, Running Entirely On Chinese Chips

China’s Z.AI (Zhipu) confirmed it’s responsible for the viral – and mysterious – Ox Alpha AI model that swept to the top of online usage charts this weekend, pushing its shares up as much as 12% on Thursday. The Beijing-based company said it intends to price use of the model, now called GLM-5.3-Flash, at $0.15 per million input tokens and $0.50 per million output tokens, or units of artificial intelligence work. That puts it alongside DeepSeek in the class of low-cost, very high-efficiency models that are attracting users away from premium-tier offerings from the likes of Anthropic PBC.

As part of the reveal, Zhipu AI launched its latest open-weight model, GLM-5.3-Flash, f/k/a Ox Alpha, saying that the system ran entirely on a cluster of 100,000 domestically produced chips during a high-profile stealth trial.

In other words, not only is China dominating the open-weight model, it will soon dominate the hardware the is used to run it, precisely as we warned a week ago.

Following the news, Zhipu’s shares closed more than 12% higher at HK$1,160 in Hong Kong on Thursday.

“What GLM-5.3-Flash confirms is a pattern that is no longer surprising — Chinese labs shipping near-frontier open models at a fraction of the Western price,” said Dermot McGrath, founder of Shanghai-based consultancy ZenGen Labs.

The announcement followed a week of heavy traffic on artificial intelligence model marketplace OpenRouter and agent platform OpenCode, where the model processed 62 trillion tokens before its formal release on Wednesday, according to Zhipu.

On OpenRouter, the system processed more than 23 trillion tokens in its first six days, making it the platform’s biggest launch to date.

Ox Alpha, as it was initially known, emerged over the weekend as an uncredited release on OpenRouter – the biggest launch in that marketplace’s history – and quickly gained traction among curious observers and users. It’s a reasoning model designed for coding and agentic tasks, and it can process text, image and video input, according to its description. The model is not far off from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 on coding and agentic capabilities, Z.ai said in a blog post.

The deployment marks a significant test of China’s ability to handle large-scale global inference workloads on home-grown hardware, as Beijing seeks to reduce reliance on advanced processors from Nvidia amid tight export controls.

During its preview, Ox Alpha rapidly surged to the top of global usage rankings. According to OpenRouter data on Thursday, the model ranked first among coding systems on the platform, accounting for 10.3 trillion tokens, or nearly 31 per cent of its total weekly volume.
To overcome the lower memory capacity and bandwidth of individual Chinese chips compared with top-tier Nvidia graphics processing units, Zhipu – which operates internationally under the Z.ai brand – said it built a specialized inference engine that split processing stages into independently managed computing pools.

The firm said these architectural adjustments tripled end-to-end serving performance from its initial baseline, bringing hardware efficiency and per-token costs on par with mainstream Nvidia accelerators. The claims have yet to be independently verified.

While Zhipu did not name specific chip suppliers for this cluster, it has previously collaborated with top domestic semiconductor developers, including Huawei Technologies, makes of the increasingly popular Ascend chip, Cambricon Technologies and Moore Threads.

Cambricon said on Thursday it had achieved “Day 0” compatibility to serve GLM-5.3-Flash. Moore Threads said it also achieved “Day 0” support for the new model.

Featuring 320 billion total parameters, GLM-5.3-Flash activated just 18 billion per request to reduce computing overhead, according to Zhipu. It is also the first model in the GLM-5 series to natively process visual information alongside text.

Benchmarking firm Artificial Analysis gave the model a score of 57 on its Intelligence Index, placing it 10th globally and third among open-weight models, trailing Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba Group Holding’s Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B.

Zhipu is touting aggressive pricing to win over international developers, offering GLM-5.3-Flash at 1/10th the rate of standard GLM-5.3 – dropping to 1/20th under a limited promotion. It claimed the new model cost about 1/40th as much as Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 at comparable intelligence levels.

Despite heavy traffic during the free trial, early developer feedback was mixed. While users praised the model’s ability to debug complex code – a community test showed that it solved 28 per cent of 175 LiveCodeBench problems – others reported occasional hallucinations, dropped tasks and sluggish generation. Artificial Analysis similarly noted that GLM-5.3-Flash’s output speed trailed the industry average.

Zhipu has released the model weights globally and integrated GLM-5.3-Flash across its application programming interface, ZCode platform, and GLM Coding Plan.

The launch coincides with intensified competition in China’s open-source ecosystem.

Separately, on Wednesday, Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Flash-Next, a multimodal preview of Qwen4 that it said activated 6 billion of its 125 billion parameters to similarly drive down inference costs. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 10:45

Democrats Challenge Trump’s Mail-In Voting Order Despite Recent SCOTUS Ruling

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Democrats Challenge Trump’s Mail-In Voting Order Despite Recent SCOTUS Ruling

Twenty-three Democratic attorneys general and the District of Columbia filed suit against the U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday, challenging a rule that limits who can receive an absentee ballot in the mail.

They filed the complaint in the U.S. District Court for Massachusetts two days after the Supreme Court allowed President Trump’s executive order on mail-in voting to proceed while the underlying case continues.

The Supreme Court ruled that the states had sued before the order’s implementation, giving them a concrete rule to fight.

“The Court’s disposition of this application does not mean that any measure taken by the Government to implement the Order will necessarily be lawful. On that score, time will tell,” the majority wrote in its order.

The liberal wing of the court dissented.

“Today’s decision does not address whether the President’s attempts to interfere with States’ administration of the November 2026 elections are lawful,” Sotomayor wrote in her dissenting opinion.

“Nor does it suggest that the Executive Branch has any constitutional or statutory authority to implement the President’s directives.”

The Court did leave open a narrower path: a challenge grounded in the Postal Service’s actual rule rather than the order that spawned it. Wednesday’s lawsuit takes that path. 

Trump’s executive order requires the United States Postal Service to match every mail ballot against a federal list of eligible voters before being sent out. While it looks like commonsense election integrity to most, Democratic state officials argue that such a list effectively gives the Trump administration control over who receives a ballot ahead of November, a role the states insist belongs to them. A dozen Republican-leaning states, who filed their own brief in that appeal in support of the federal government, noted that the rule still gives states the role of shaping the final voter lists.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta is leading the suit along with the attorneys general of Nevada, Washington, and Massachusetts. The full plaintiff list runs longer: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin all joined, along with the District of Columbia. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, also appears as a plaintiff.

The states argue that the Constitution places responsibility for regulating elections with them, a power they say neither the White House nor the Postal Service holds.

“Let’s be clear: The U.S. Constitution gives states the power to regulate elections – not the President and not USPS,” Bonta said in a statement. The complaint seeks a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction to block the rule while litigation proceeds, and it describes the rule as a violation of “the Constitution and federal statutes many times over.”

They argue that complying with the order would be costly due to the need to redesign ballot envelopes and to build a data pipeline to USPS from scratch, on a deadline measured in weeks rather than months.

“If not stayed or preliminarily enjoined, the Rule will frustrate or outright prevent Plaintiff States from administering their mail voting programs in November and foreseeably disenfranchise voters who vote by mail,” the complaint reads.

“Donald Trump does not run elections. States do,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.

“And his latest attack on democracy is proof of how weak he has become. California will continue to lead the way in defending democracy — using every tool at our disposal and every minute in our day. This perilous moment in history demands no less from us.”

White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis called the Supreme Court’s decision “was a major win for the security of American elections,” before attacking radical Democrats who “continue to oppose commonsense measures that protect the security of mail-in ballots and ensure only Americans are electing American leaders.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 10:25

Trump Considers New Tariffs On Semiconductors – Reports Raise Alarm Could Doom US Dominance

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Trump Considers New Tariffs On Semiconductors – Reports Raise Alarm Could Doom US Dominance

Politico reports Thursday on what could be another significant setback for US data centers and major damper on American AI aspirations.

The White House is mulling the possibility of introducing new tariffs on semiconductors and a broader range of technology products, including laptops, servers for data centers and gaming equipment – a move tech companies have long been warning against, and which may demonstrate once again that the only thing getting ‘reshored’ is massive inflation for end consumers.

Source: Equinix. Data center located in San Jose, California.

The report notes that “Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick favors a structure that would tie foreign companies’ relief from the tariffs to investment in US chip manufacturing to juice more domestic production, said four of the people.”

“The administration is also mulling a phase-in period for the new tariffs, the four people said,” the report continues. “The people stressed that the framework could still be substantially revised in the coming weeks or months.”

Jonathan McHale, digital policy chief at the Computer and Communications Industry Association, is quoted in the report as saying. “This data center buildout, in scale and dollars, has been compared to building the transcontinental railroad.”

“Anytime you add to the cost and decrease predictability you make it more difficult to invest, and you are putting that in jeopardy,” he pointed out.

As a reminder under Biden Washington first laid the groundwork with a significant escalation of semiconductor trade barriers. Trump then upped the ante on the campaign trail, floating a shock 100% levies on imported chips while promising a full pass for anyone willing to build their manufacturing on American soil. Then in January the White House slapped a 25% tariff on high-end AI semiconductors.

US sanctions on advanced chipmaking equipment and high-end semiconductors have been aimed at slowing China’s push into cutting-edge chip production.

But as CNBC also points out, Chinese tech firms have reportedly had little trouble bypassing “strict” export bans to get their hands on Nvidia hardware. 

“Industry watchers say access to advanced compute via overseas cloud providers is a key factor in Chinese AI models gaining capability,” CNBC writes Thursday. “US legislation is being discussed to plug this loophole, but hurdles remain before it can have an impact,” it adds.

A fresh White House statement says, “Reshoring semiconductor manufacturing is a top priority for President Trump, whose policies have already secured hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in this key sector,” according to admin spokesperson Kush Desai.

“The Trump administration remains focused on delivering more investments and economic relief for the American people while safeguarding our national security,” the official adds.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 09:45

Imagine A ‘Whites Only’ Hike Through The Countryside…

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Imagine A ‘Whites Only’ Hike Through The Countryside…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Picture a “whites only” ramble through the Peak District. The press would treat it as a national emergency. Now take look at what is already happening there, with official blessing.

The National Trust has spent years partnering with Muslim Hikers for Ramadan walks and overnight retreats at Ilam Park. The charity’s own channel promotes Enjoy the beautiful Peak District on a Ramadan walk with the Muslim Hikers.

The weekend features a guided hike, congregational prayers, iftar, night prayers and suhoor, with YHA Ilam Hall booked exclusively for the group on National Trust land.

That is sold as inclusion. Reverse the identity and it becomes a hate incident.

Muslim Hikers founder Haroon Mota states “It’s about showing our communities that these places are for us too.”

Other groups drop even that pretence. Peaks of Colour calls itself “a Peak District-based walking club by and for people of colour only.” Founder Evie Muir says the point is to “reclaim space in the outdoors.”

Allies can donate, but they cannot join the walk.

Another group called Wanderers of Colour ran a Peak District climbing festival this August billed as “Europe’s only climbing festival by and for Black and people of colour.”

A whites-only weekend on the same gritstone would not get a listings write-up. It would get a police inquiry.

Then there is this development:

A 2022 DEFRA report complained that rural facilities served “white English culture,” including “traditional pubs, which have limited food options and cater to people who have a drinking culture.”

Muslims from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds, it said, felt unwelcome because of it. The approved solution is not adaptation. It is a rewritten menu.

National Trust director-general Hilary McGrady spelled out the official line on LBC in March. Ethnic minorities, she said, do not feel the countryside is “a place for them.”

“They don’t necessarily know ‘what am I meant to wear, how do I behave? What’s a countryside code? I’ve never heard of it’.”

The research, she added, “comes back really clearly to say they don’t. So we accept that and we have to respond… because the National Trust is here for everyone.”

Britain’s national parks are already open to anyone who can stay on the path. The Trust’s answer is still to treat the existing rural culture as the problem, while hosting Ramadan residentials at Ilam Hall.

Julian Glover’s 2019 Defra review called national parks “an exclusive, mainly white, mainly middle-class club” and a “‘white’ environment” at risk of becoming “irrelevant to the country that actually exists.”

National Landscapes fell in behind it. The Chilterns promised outreach to Muslims from Luton and marketing in “community languages.” Malvern Hills said “most white English users value the solitude” while “ethnic minority people” prefer “social company.”

Nidderdale pledged a “more diverse cultural interpretation of the countryside.” The Telegraph’s February headline did not distort the papers. It was a drive to make the countryside “less white.”

In 2024 Wildlife and Countryside Link told an all-party parliamentary group: “Cultural barriers reflect that in the UK, it is White British cultural values that have been embedded into the design and management of green spaces.”

It added that “racist colonial legacies continue to frame nature in the UK as a ‘white space’.”

That is the climate in which a people-of-colour-only club is called community and a whites-only ramble would be called extremism.

The Guardian writer John Harris recently praised Peak District paths where a common sight is “women in their 20s wearing hijabs picnicked on giant rocks.” Country walking, he wrote, had been “one of the most monoculturally white pursuits there is.” The new scene is, according to Harris, “a wonderful rejection of the right’s monotone vision of England.”

While the reports fuss over clothing, dogs and menus, the British countryside itself is increasingly being used as a dump.

In November a fly-tip on the River Cherwell near Kidlington piled waste an estimated 20 feet deep and 500 feet long.

In January farmer Katie Davies found a river of rubbish down Bwlch Mountain in Treorchy, visible for miles. “I’m extremely frustrated and upset,” she told the BBC. “It’s just devastating.” The mess “keeps me up at night.”

Natural Resources Wales called fly-tipping “a serious crime.” Over 70 percent of incidents involve household waste moved by unlicensed carriers.

The Kinder Scout trespassers wanted the right to roam. The new version wants branded weekends, race-gated clubs, faith residentials on Trust land, and a countryside redesigned because Defra decided “white English culture” was the defect.

The hills were not meant to be carved up by identity. Octavia Hill, a National Trust founder, wrote that “the need of quiet, the need of air and… the sight of sky and of things growing seem human needs, common to all.” Common to all is the opposite of a programme that sorts walkers by race and creed, then calls the native remainder colonial.

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 08:45

Jobs ‘AI’pocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows

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Jobs ‘AI’pocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time dropped to 203k last week

The first time initial jobless claims hit this level was in May 2022.

New York and Illinois saw the largest rise in initial claims while California and New Jersey saw the biggest declines…

Continuing jobless claims also dropped, holding below the 1.8 million Americans Maginot Line…

Another week, another confirmation that the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy remains the driving force and the Jobs AIpocalypse remains absent for now.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 08:36

When Wall Street Says Sell, Check Who’s Waiting To Buy

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When Wall Street Says Sell, Check Who’s Waiting To Buy

 Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Today let me offer up one of my patented periodic reminders to do your own work.

As many have already pointed out, there was something almost too neat about Citadel’s timing before the Situational Awareness blowup. In late June, Citadel Securities published a market-structure review warning that U.S. equities had become unusually concentrated, that investors were increasingly expressing bullishness through leverage, and that leveraged exposure was piling particularly aggressively into technology and semiconductors. They also warned of a rate hike possibility.

Leveraged ETF assets had reached roughly $218 billion; semiconductor exposure in those products was up 175% since the end of March. Financing was getting more expensive too. It was not a prophecy about one hedge fund, but it was a pretty good description of the tinder.

Then July supplied the match. Situational Awareness, the spectacularly successful AI fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, got caught in the semiconductor selloff with a leveraged and concentrated book. Its portfolio fell 67% in July. Margin pressure followed, most of the public-equity portfolio had to go, and the fund that had looked like a genius machine suddenly discovered one of finance’s oldest technological breakthroughs: the margin call. Aschenbrenner did what, in my opinion, all market cowards unable to accept responsibility do: blamed short sellers. (Read: Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Short Seller Fairy Tale)

The interesting bit is who showed up with a checkbook after. Citadel, Ken Griffin’s hedge fund, bought most of Situational Awareness’s roughly $16 billion public-equity portfolio. Some positions were acquired at discounts of more than 10%. Within weeks Citadel had already eliminated more than 80% of the aggregate risk it had taken on, including through nearly 100 block trades worth more than $4 billion. Citadel gained roughly 6% in July while quite a few AI tourists were discovering the difference between conviction and collateral.

To be precise, Citadel Securities and Citadel the hedge fund are separate businesses. There is no evidence that Citadel Securities issued its market-structure warnings because Citadel wanted Situational Awareness’s assets on the cheap. That would be a much more exciting story, unfortunately requiring the minor inconvenience of evidence.

But it’s definitely worth…noting. And that’s what this piece is about. You don’t need a conspiracy theory to notice the lesson. Citadel Securities warned that a particular market structure was fragile. That structure cracked. Forced sellers appeared. Citadel then had the balance sheet and trading machinery to buy what those sellers could no longer hold. The warning and the purchase did not appear to be contradictory. They looked to me to be two different moments in the same trade. But there’s no evidence of that.

Still, that makes it worth remembering now that Citadel Securities is warning about the Treasury market. Its latest note attacks Scott Bessent’s expanded buybacks of long-dated Treasury securities, describing them as “financial repression at the margin.” The argument is that Treasury is trying to lean against long-term yields without addressing the reasons those yields are high in the first place: deficits, inflationary pressure and an economy already running hot enough to make additional easing questionable.

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Citadel’s argument is straightforward. If policymakers prevent the adjustment from happening through lower bond prices and higher yields, the pressure does not politely disappear. It goes looking for another door. Citadel thinks that door may be the dollar: constrain the adjustment in Treasuries, weaken the currency instead, loosen financial conditions, import some more inflation, and congratulate yourself on having successfully moved the fire from the kitchen to the living room.

Read literally, this is a warning against long-duration Treasuries. But after Situational Awareness, I feel like there should be another way to read it. Maybe the most useful question is not whether Citadel is right that bonds are vulnerable. Maybe the useful question is what happens if Citadel is right enough to create the kind of price Citadel would eventually want to buy bonds at…

That is the distinction Wall Street macro commentary regularly obscures. “This market is dangerous” is not remotely the same statement as “this asset will be unattractive at every price.” A 30-year Treasury at one yield can be an awful proposition. The same instrument after a violent liquidation and another hundred basis points of yield is literally a different investment.

Suppose Citadel is correct. Treasury intervention fails to resolve the fiscal problem. Long yields rise and bond funds take losses. Leveraged players reduce positions, risk managers demand smaller books, and everyone who was reaching for duration six months earlier suddenly explains that they were always fundamentally a cash investor. At some point the sellers stop being people with opinions and become people with instructions. That is usually when the interesting buyers arrive.

That was the interesting part of Situational Awareness. The warning “leverage and concentration are dangerous” ultimately led not to “never own these assets,” but to a moment when somebody very sophisticated was delighted to own them at somebody else’s distressed price. This is the way investment-bank macro should be read: not backwards in the childish sense that Goldman says buy, therefore sell, but structurally backwards. If this thesis becomes consensus, what positions does it create? What liquidation could it eventually force? And who gets the much better entry after everybody obeys it?

There is a mildly uncomfortable possibility here. A macro analyst can be completely sincere, analytically correct and still produce a conclusion that eventually becomes most valuable in reverse. “Bonds are vulnerable” can eventually mean bonds are becoming cheap. “The dollar is doomed” can eventually produce a very crowded short. “Credit is too tight” can cause spreads to blow out until lending becomes attractive. Markets are annoying that way. They insist on changing the price after everyone agrees on the story.

You cannot prove that an investment bank secretly believes the opposite of what its strategist publishes, and in most cases that is probably the wrong framing anyway. Giant financial firms do not possess one brain and one position. The research desk, market maker, trading desk, clients and asset-management businesses can all have different exposures simultaneously. Asking “what does Goldman really believe?” is often like asking what all of New York City thinks about lunch.

Who Is Leopold Aschenbrenner, Whose Hedge Fund Melted Down - Business Insider

But the broader lesson goes well beyond Citadel, Goldman, JPMorgan or any particular investment bank. And the lesson applies to not just macro, but also sell side equity research: trust no one on Wall Street. Not because everyone is lying. That would actually make things easier. The problem is that everyone is talking from somewhere. Everyone has a book, a mandate, a time horizon, clients, incentives, constraints and a definition of risk that may bear almost no resemblance to yours. The billionaire telling you an asset is dangerous may be able to withstand a 40% drawdown that would liquidate you. The bank telling you something is attractive may be simultaneously financing the people selling it. The hedge-fund manager predicting disaster may simply be describing the event that would give him his dream entry price.

And don’t be hypnotized by the number of zeroes involved. Managing $10 billion does not make somebody ten times more correct than somebody managing $1 billion, and working at an institution overseeing trillions does not confer access to the tablets from Mount Sinai. Large institutions possess extraordinary data, talent and market access. They also produced Long-Term Capital Management, the mortgage crisis, Archegos, countless consensus trades and enough catastrophic “research notes” to fill the East River. Capital is evidence that somebody has successfully accumulated or attracted capital…it is not a certificate of omniscience.

The correct response is not cynicism for its own sake. It is independence. Listen to everyone precisely because you trust no one. Go ahead, read Citadel and Goldman. Read JPMorgan, the Fed, the bears, the bulls and the lunatics on X. Hell, read it all. That’s why you’re reading this after all, right? Then, steal their facts, inspect their arguments, understand their positioning where you can, and then make the irritatingly adult decision yourself.

Because the most important question in markets is rarely “Who is right?” It is: right about what, at what price, over what time horizon, with how much leverage, and with whose money? Two investors can hold opposite positions and both make money because their constraints are different. Two investors can believe exactly the same thesis and one can go bankrupt because he borrowed too much to express it.

I read Citadel’s Treasury warning carefully. They may be exactly right about the underlying problem. Long-term yields may need to rise. Treasury buybacks may merely relocate the pressure. The dollar may ultimately have to absorb some of the adjustment. But then read the warning again and ask the question Situational Awareness makes impossible to ignore: if this goes badly enough, who is waiting to buy?

Trust no one. Do your own work. And whenever Wall Street tells you what you should desperately want to sell, at least ask what price would make Wall Street delighted to buy it from you.

Now read:

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade as much as I once did (read my story here). My eventual goal is for investing/saving to be mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 08:20

The Greatest Cover-Up In Economic History: How Washington Hid Its Role In The 2008 Crash

survivalnomics
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The Greatest Cover-Up In Economic History: How Washington Hid Its Role In The 2008 Crash

Authored by Kevin Villani via Mises Institute,

The commentary in a recent Wall Street Journal by Senator Phil Gramm and Representative Jeb Hensarling did the nation an immense service by dismantling the persistent myth that private market greed and financial deregulation caused the 2008 financial crisis. As they rightly pointed out, inflation-adjusted mortgage rates during the bubble era were historically high, and financial institutions were suffocating under increasingly strict federal mandates, not running wild in a deregulated vacuum.

Yet, for nearly two decades, the public has been fed a completely fabricated baseline narrative. Having served as the Chief Economist at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and later as the Chief Economist at Freddie Mac during critical regulatory shifts, and as an expert in securitization-having structured the first CMO with Larry Fink at First Boston, the first CBO with Mike Milken at Drexel, the first unique MBB with Lou Ranieri at Salomon, and later the first CLO-I watched the true mechanics of this disaster play out from the inside. The reality is uncomfortable for the political class: the real crime of 2008 was not a failure of capitalism, but a catastrophic failure of central planning.

The subprime crisis was deliberately engineered in Washington. Through affordable housing quotas managed by HUD, progressive policymakers systematically weaponized government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. To meet arbitrary, politically-motivated homeownership targets, these institutions were forced to aggressively buy up low-quality, high-risk mortgages.

The mechanics of this distortion were devastatingly simple. To satisfy Washington’s mandates, the GSEs had to continuously lower their credit scoring thresholds, accept zero-down-payment structures, and purchase loans with unverified incomes. This top-down command economy completely erased private market discipline. Private lenders-knowing they could instantly dump these toxic, subprime originations onto the balance sheets of government-backed entities-stopped underwriting for risk and began underwriting for political compliance. By forcing the financial system to accept trillions of dollars in low-quality debt, Washington single-handedly fueled the historic housing bubble.

When the house of cards inevitably collapsed, the economic devastation was staggering. The direct government fiscal costs alone reached an estimated $2 trillion domestically and topped $12 trillion globally in banking interventions and stabilization efforts. But the indirect, structural costs were far worse: a permanent loss of up to $14 trillion in US economic output and the immediate vaporization of over $19 trillion in household wealth.

Faced with a disaster of their own making, policymakers pulled off a multi-trillion-dollar ideological cover-up that may ultimately prove to be far more damaging than the original crime.

To shift the blame entirely onto private capital, Washington weaponized the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC). The commission’s partisan majority report was custom-built to exonerate the state’s progressive interventions. To achieve this, the political class relied heavily on a curated roster of nationally-recognized academic contributors. These individuals perfectly embodied what Nobel laureate economist Friedrich Hayek famously labeled “armchair intellectuals”-theorists with zero actual industry experience whose abstract models merely confused the public and distracted attention from the fundamental, government-driven causes of the collapse.

This academic misdirection, operating in tandem with Marxist-driven street movements like Occupy Wall Street, successfully captured the public imagination. By framing a state-engineered credit crisis as an inherent flaw of the free market, Washington channeled public rage away from regulators and straight onto Wall Street. This manufactured consensus provided the perfect pretext to pass the Dodd-Frank Act-a massive expansion of state regulatory power that heavily penalized the private sector while leaving the government’s destructive, highly leveraged dominance over housing finance completely untouched.

The long-term consequences of this deception are playing out in real time today. We see the latest fruit of the 2008 cover-up in the radical economic platforms of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Because the true history of the crash was erased, a new generation of progressives now uses the false narrative of “market failure” to demand national rent controls, a federal tenant bill of rights, and the aggressive expansion of state-owned “social housing.” They are deploying the exact same rhetoric used by the FCIC majority and the Zuccotti Park occupiers to advocate for the complete central planning of American real estate.

By shielding Washington from accountability, the 2008 cover-up institutionalized systemic moral hazard and permanently crippled market discipline. When central planning fails, the state’s universal response is to demand even more centralized control. Unless we aggressively correct the historical record and expose the armchair intellectuals who enabled this deception, the ongoing ideological cover-up will succeed in setting the stage for a new generation of even more devastating, state-engineered economic collapses.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 08:05

Futures Jump After Nvidia’s Unprecedented 2028 Guidance Stuns Markets

survivalnomics
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Futures Jump After Nvidia’s Unprecedented 2028 Guidance Stuns Markets

Futures are higher led by Tech as NVDA earnings boost the tape. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher while Nasdaq futures jump 1.1% led by NVDA which is +7.4% in pre-market trading following an unprecedented forecast of 70% revenue growth in 2028, which is boosting Semis (+3%), incl MRVL +5.2% into their print tonight. NVDA helped the market climb a significant wall of worry and is not poised to resume it march higher. Memory is +3.6%, Software is +2.3%, Korea +2.1%, and Low/Unprofitable Tech +1.2% points to a broad-based Tech rally. Yet Only 2 of 7 Mag7 names are higher, NVDA and TSLA. Outside of Tech, most sectors are trading lower ex-Industrials / Utils which are benefitting from a reboot of the AI trade. Our Retail flows remain materially off their highs with behavior shifting from ETFs to single stocks; Mag7 / NVDA most bought, MRNA most sold with gold seeing strong inflows. Bond yields are +1-2bp with USD flat. Cmdtys are mostly lower dragged by Energy and Base Metals; Precious are mixed with gold flat and silver higher. Today’s macro data calendar includes July advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless claims and July inventories (8:30 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on CBNC at 10 a.m. and Fox Business at 1 p.m.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly lower even as Nvidia jumps 7.2% after the leader in AI chips gave an outlook for revenue growth that was stronger than expected. Others are mostly in the red: Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -1.1%, Meta Platforms -0.3%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.4%. 

  • AI infrastructure stocks broadly gain after Nvidia’s outlook. Intel (INTC) 2%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +1%.
  • Software companies are rising following robust results from a number of notable names in the sector.
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 9% after the security software company raised its full-year forecast on key metrics.
  • Dollar General (DG) gains 13% after the retailer’s comparable sales for the second quarter topped expectations and management boosted guidance for the year. The stock had been down 7.5% this year through Wednesday’s close.
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR) falls 4% as the retailer’s guidance for the third quarter and full year proves underwhelming after the stock’s 38% advance since its 1Q results on May 28. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.1% for the same period.
  • Everpure (P) rises 2% after the computer storage company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
  • Nutanix (NTNX) climbs 5% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations and it gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
  • Okta (OKTA) gains 17% after the software company boosted its full-year forecast on key metrics, including adjusted earnings and revenue.
  • Salesforce (CRM) is up 10% after the software company raised its full-year forecast and announced an expanded partnership with Anthropic.
  • Wendy’s (WEN) plunges 14% after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has no plans to make a bid at this time to take the fast-food chain private.

In other corporate news, a $31 billion venture between Kioxia Holdings Corp. and Sandisk Corp. to ratchet up flash memory production added to the buoyant tone in technology stocks. Security Benefit Life Insurance will restructure its $14 billion stockpile of collateral loans after such assets drew scrutiny from regulators. Caesars Entertainment turned down a bid from investor Carl Icahn to take the company private and instead chose a lower offer from billionaire Tilman Fertitta because it was more comfortable with other terms of his proposal. The owners of the 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System are seeking to renew its federal land authorization more than seven years before it expires, a move that could capitalize on President Trump’s enthusiasm for US oil production.

Nvidia’s 7% pre-market gain following its solid revenue outlook is propelling the Nasdaq future higher by 1.1%, even as the index pulled back from highs after Politico reported the White House is mulling a fresh round of tariffs on chips. Nvidia’s upbeat outlook offered relief to investors concerned about a bubble in the AI economy as CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its artificial-intelligence accelerators continues to expand. 

Nvidia’s surprising stab at providing longer-term guidance (70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, versus consensus around 45%) was taken positively, especially in the context of the number reflecting constrained supply dynamics (imagine how high the forecast could have been without the bottlenecks). The conference call pushed back on the circular deal narrative, while Huang later said “investing in these companies is a once in a generation opportunity. I think the only regret that I have is that I didn’t invest more and sooner.”

Nvidia’s results showed that the AI cycle is primarily constrained by physical bottlenecks such as memory and power, rather than a shortage of end demand, said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “It effectively pushes the cyclical question further out and, crucially, gives investors permission to extend the earnings-growth runway not just for Nvidia, but across the second- and third-order beneficiaries of the AI buildout,” she said.

The VIX Index is below 15 and VVIX below 86, while even one-year Nvidia implied volatility appears cheap – despite its CDS trading at highs and as Chinese competition builds. The risk of AI headline fatigue is setting in. “Given Jensen’s constant visibility this quarter, the myriad of circular deal announcements, and just the mental exhaustion from AI headlines,” this week’s main event remains that of Warsh and the Fed at Jackson Hole, according to Dave Lutz at Jonestrading.

The company is “taking a more active role in removing the capital and infrastructure bottlenecks that could constrain its own growth,” notes Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. More broadly, she adds that “the AI cycle is still being governed primarily by physical constraints such as memory, packaging, power and data-centre capacity, rather than by any shortage of end demand.”

Nvidia’s performance reflects how it has become the funding trade for AI picks and shovels, even as it acts as the industry’s bank. GAM’s head of global equities Paul Markham notes “the biggest risk to Nvidia here is a cash call, which is that it becomes a victim of its own success in the sense that investors get very, very excited about the Anthropic IPO and sell some Nvidia to fund it.”

With software considered to be perceived victims of AI, a reassuring print from CRM leader Salesforce gives some relief in predicting strong revenue expansion and deepening its partnership with Anthropic. Elsewhere in AI, AWS committed to deploy two million additional Nvidia GPUs across its global infrastructure in 2027-2028.

Attention will now turn to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major speech as Fed chair on Friday, giving investors fresh clues on the policy outlook after he faced criticism over a lack of clarity about his views on the economy.

“The market wants a little bit more hawkishness because you have seen some pretty strong numbers coming out on growth and inflation, pointing more toward higher rather than lower rates,” said Caspar Rock at Schroders Wealth Management. “More clarity should give a bit more confidence, and that might perk up the dollar rather than fixed interest markets.”

Earnings growth from core tech names “is crucial given this is the main driver for US markets, and tech investment is the main driver for US growth,” said Geoff Yu at BNY. However, “with strong growth comes the risk of tighter monetary policy, which for now is also the market’s base case.”

Still, some pockets of weakness tempered Thursday’s optimism. HP Inc. tumbled as investors worried about demand for the company’s computers and printers. Meanwhile, Wheat prices hit the highest since July 2023, keeping inflation concerns in focus alongside still-elevated energy prices.

Tech optimism was also not on display in Europe with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3%,  as a retreat in consumer stocks outweighed the gains in the technology sector.

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, led by chip stocks after Nvidia Corp.’s bullish sales outlook injected vitality into the AI trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% before paring. The Nvidia-inspired rally in chip stocks swept across the region, from South Korea to Japan with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia the biggest contributors. “Nvidia handed SK Hynix and Samsung one of the strongest demand signals they could have asked for,” said Josh Gilbert, an analyst at online trading platform eToro. “When the industry’s most important customer can not get enough memory and prices are still heading higher; the read-through for both stocks is very positive.”  Kioxia shares rose 5%, boosted by reports that it will build a new facility in northern Japan. The company confirmed after the market closed that it plans to spend more than ¥5 trillion ($31.4 billion) with Sandisk to ratchet up production capacity across the country.  Benchmarks in South Korea and China gained while Japanese stocks fluctuated. Philippines was the worst performer in the region, dropping the most in two months, as a third successive rate hike added to economic headwinds. AI-bellwether Korea also digested its central bank’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for a second consecutive meeting to contain inflation.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses as US trading gets under way, lifting yields by 2bp-3bp ahead of the monthly 7-year note auction, following a subpar, tailing 5Y on Wednesday. Yield-curve flattening trend unleashed by last week’s Treasury Department decision to expand buybacks targeting 10- to 30-year sectors is intact; 5s30 spread narrowed to under 79bp, lowest since July 29 (most recent Federal Reserve decision date), 2s10s to under 43bp, lowest since Aug.  10-year yield is about 2bp higher on the day near 4.67% and slightly cheaper vs UK and German counterparts. Oil prices, which in recent sessions have led yields lower, are little changed, inside Wednesday’s ranges.
$44 billion 7-year note auction at 1 p.m. New York time has WI yield near 4.52%, higher than results since May 2024; last month’s 7-year auction tailed slightly after a rally into the bidding deadline. IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; Wednesday saw just one (floating rate) offering priced.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with Aussie dollar extending its week-to-date outperformance versus the greenback.

In commodities, brent crude prices are a touch firmer, having fallen earlier, as traders weigh Hormuz discussions and the Russian escalation on Ukraine. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2%. Precious metals have trimmed earlier gains with spot gold now up just 0.2%. Bitcoin is up 2.4% and back above $80k. 

US economic data calendar includes July advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless claims and July inventories (8:30 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on CBNC at 10 a.m. and Fox Business at 1 p.m.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • Kuwait and Qatar, two of the Persian Gulf’s smaller oil producers, are sending more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to an increase in shipments that are keeping global prices in check. The two countries, which exported a combined 2 million barrels a day of oil before the outbreak of the Iran war, have managed to get shipments back to 70% of pre-conflict levels. BBG
  • Qatar’s prime minister will visit Tehran on Thursday in a bid to relaunch diplomacy after the U.S. and Iran traded recriminations over Washington’s promise to increase economic pressure on ‌Tehran by targeting its trade partners for sanctions. Reuters.
  • Iraq is offering buyers of its crude the option to collect supplies from outside of the Persian Gulf for the first time since the Iran war began, highlighting resilient exports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz: BBG
  • Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end. For now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities. BBG
  • The Trump administration is weighing a new round of sweeping tariffs on semiconductors, despite warnings from tech companies that the move could doom U.S. hopes of dominating artificial intelligence. Politico
  • Nvidia reports blowout quarter, says demand for AI chips is getting even hotter. Shares rallied as the chip giant forecast 70% revenue growth next year and defended its financial support of AI companies. WSJ
  • Kioxia Corporation and Sandisk Corporation today announced anticipated significant investments in Japan, totaling over $31 billion (approximately 5 trillion yen) contingent upon government support. The investments through 2032 will continue to strengthen partnership, one of the most successful joint ventures across any industry. The partnership has helped drive decades of NAND flash memory innovation and invested over $50 billion (approximately 9 trillion yen) in Japan over the past 25 years. BBG
  • Anthropic PBC has agreed to spend $45 billion to rent AI cloud computing power from Nscale’s flagship data center development in West Virginia, the latest move to secure capacity for its expanding business in advance of going public. BBG
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s more activist style of managing the nation’s debt has Wall Street war-gaming a potentially bigger shift in the government’s borrowing strategy over the coming months: BBG
  • South Korea’s central bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 3%, its second consecutive tightening action, a move that was expected, as the country faces upside risks to both growth and inflation. Nikkei
  • Norway’s economy picked up pace last quarter, growing 0.3% and keeping the door open for more monetary tightening. BBG
  • Fed’s Cook (voter) denied wrongdoing and vowed to fight US President Trump’s effort to fire her from the Fed. Cook’s lawyer said there is no legally valid reason for ousting Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve board: RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with most indices in the green, after the flat performance stateside, where markets digested the firmer-than-expected headline PCE data and braced for NVIDIA earnings. The AI darling beat on top and bottom lines, although its shares were initially subdued, but were then boosted during the earnings call as the CFO flagged about a 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year. ASX 200 underperformed amid another barrage of earnings releases and after recent inflation data, which prompted a call by NAB for the RBA to resume hiking rates at the next meeting in September. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading the initial NVIDIA-spurred euphoria. KOSPI led the advances in the region as chipmakers cheered NVIDIA’s strong results and outlook, while investors were also unfazed by the BoK’s pre-emptive back-to-back rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid several earnings releases and slower Industrial Profits, although the mainland was kept afloat after the PBoC conducted both 7-day and overnight reverse repos.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Jul YY) 17.6% (Prev. 18.7%).
  • Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2026-27 (AUD)(Estimate 3) 200.7B (Prev. 173.4B).
  • Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2025-26 (AUD)(Estimate 7) 210.0B (Prev. 207.6B).

European bourses begin Thursday’s trade with a negative tilt, with the majority of indices in the red, outside of the DAX 40. The primary reason for the upside in the German benchmark is the read-across following upbeat Nvidia and Salesforce earnings. The broad  positiveness in chipmakers was also seen overnight, with the KOSPI closing with gains of 1.5%. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Tech the only sector printing decent gains. To the downside lies Food, Beverages & Tobacco, with Chemicals and Optimised Personal Care rounding out the sector laggards. Key movers include: Pernod Ricard (-6.0%), Q2 revenue missed estimates and guided FY sales growth at the lower end of its range due to soft US market; Delivery Hero (+0.4%), raises its FY26 guidance.

Top European News

  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -26.6 vs. Exp. -29.6 (Prev. -29.4).
  • European M3 Money Supply (Jul YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%).

FX

  • Lacklustre price action across the FX space which has all G10 currencies essentially flat against the Buck.
  • Nothing to derail the AI Capex narrative within NVIDIA earnings, in which Q2 results were strong and guidance impressed; a release which did not give too much lead to FX markets. Focus now turns to numerous Fed speakers today including the hawkish Hammack and Schmid; thereafter attention will be on Chair Warsh, who is set to speak on Friday at 15:00 BST. DXY flat/modestly firmer with a peak of 99.20 which is just above the 200DMA.
  • JPY confirms the general trend seen across G10s with not many surprises from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino whose tone was consistent with pricing of September’s likely 25bps hike, noting in both of his speeches the BoJ needed to “pay more attention to upside inflation risks than before”. USD/JPY range bound within 159.30/40, calendar is light so will likely be dictated by a busy US schedule with just Tokyo CPI scheduled for Friday.
  • EUR flat against the Buck with EZ catalysts light ahead of ECB minutes. Price action today will likely be at the whim of the Buck with ECB minutes likely to not surprise. EUR saw some modest weakness of around 10 pips after taking a lead from French stocks ahead of the first French presidential debate at 15:45 BST. Note that the docket features the three favourites, Marine Le Pen who does not appease markets and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who recently touted France “set fire” to a large chunk of its public debt. EUR/USD slipped from the familiar 1.1650 to a 1.1634 base, before paring that aforementioned downside.

Fixed Income

  • Fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, with USTs (U/C) flat, whilst Bunds (-23 ticks) and Gilts (-21 ticks) are pressured. Earlier action was uneventful, but a report that the US is mulling a new round of tariffs on chips spurred some mild downside in fixed benchmarks.
  • USTs attempt to pare back some of the pressure seen on Wednesday following the slightly hotter US PCE report, whereby the headline topped expectations. On the Fed, it may not shift too much for policymakers heading into the September meeting – but a slew of Fed speak is expected in the next few days. Today sees interviews via Schmid and Hammack, whilst Chair Warsh is set to speak on Friday. A tight-lipped approach from the Chair could see markets begin to shift attention back to credibility concerns, and therefore result in the resumption of the debasement trade. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr (4.65%) remains shy of the level which saw the Treasury announce its long-end support (4.7%) – albeit only marginally so. A resumption of debt / credibility concerns could see the 10yr circulate within a 4.75-5% range into the next bout of key US data. On the flip side, a significant breach below the 4.5% mark would likely require a dovish Warsh on Friday (unlikely), and favourable NFP (Sept 4) / CPI (Sept 11) reports.
  • Bunds and Gilts are pressured this morning, The downside can, in part, be explained by the ongoing strength in Dutch TTF gas prices. Woes have also been further exacerbated by recent reports that Russian President Putin is to escalate the war in Ukraine, as he sees talks with Ukraine at a dead end.

Commodities

  • In geopolitics, Nour News reported that Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag. The piece added that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers. Interestingly, a headline out of Iranian Press TV suggested that Oman reportedly stopped cooperating with the US to facilitate escorted tanker movements through southern Hormuz. Note: Trump has twice publicly threatened Oman with military action due to its bilateral negotiations with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Meanwhile, some focus returns to Russia-Ukraine after Bloomberg sources suggested Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.
  • WTI Oct and Brent Nov initially extended losses north of USD 1/bbl, but have since clambered off lows – potentially thanks to the Nour News report above. Currently WTI and Brent are posting losses of only USD 0.10/bbl, with the latter currently sitting towards the upper end of a USD 85.32-86.99/bbl range. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF is relatively flat intraday but off highs after dipping under EUR 66/MWh this morning before finding support near EUR 65/MWh and somewhat stabilising around EUR 65.50/MWh.
  • Metals are mixed with precious metals taking a breather after yesterday’s losses, although with upside capped as the DXY remains resilient to oil losses. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,593-4,643/oz range, with yesterday’s parameter. Spot silver found early support at its 100 DMA (USD 68.24/oz) and resistance near yesterday’s high (USD 69.95/oz). Base metals are mostly subdued by the resiliency of the buck, but underpinned by ongoing China stimulus hopes, 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,207.30- 14,323.13/t range at the time of writing.
  • Kuwait and Qatar have reportedly increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to around 1.4mmln BPD, some 70% of pre-conflict levels, according to reports.
  • Thai gold dealers said that the Ministry of Finance currently has no near-term plans to impose a gold tax.

Trade/Tariffs

  • USTR Greer said the US did not add any new demands at the end of the negotiations with Canada and that the US wanted mutual protection on things like steel and aluminium in trade talks with Canada. Greer also stated that the US won’t just sit down and take it if Canada imposes more retaliation, as well as noting there are no open channels with Canada at the moment.
  • The US White House is reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on chips, Politico reports citing sources. The report detailed that one approach under consideration would increase the number of tech products subject to levies. This means that duties would hit chips, and potentially items such as laptops, gaming consoles and servers that fill data centres.
  • US Senator Moreno (R) reportedly sent a letter to USTR Greer to open a Section 301 investigation on South Korea over its treatment of Coupang, according to Semafor.
  • The US is investigating Apex Logistics over AI chip smuggling to China.
  • US President Trump signed a proclamation to increase lean beef imports with the quota increased by 100k tons of beef per month effective September 1st for 90 days, while the proclamation increases lean beef trimmings that are imported with no-above-quota tariff.

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Radev said October and December meetings are both live, Econostream reported. Radev stated that waiting until second-round effects are fully visible could mean acting too late, but that there is not enough broad-based evidence to say growth risks are “clearly to the upside”. On neutral, he said that 2.5% is not a “precise dividing line” but “probably around neutral”.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said he believes the BoJ should continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. He added that the BoJ must be mindful of upside price risk more than ever before and that they will debate policy at every meeting while taking such risks into account. Himino highlighted that if underlying inflation rises to a level above the 2% price target, it would have an adverse impact on the economy. On the currency, the BoJ wants to scrutinise the various effects of a weak Yen on the economy.
  • BoK kept rates steady to 3.00%, as expected. Forecasts: Sees 2026 CPI at 2.7% (prev. 2.7%), 2027 at 2.3% (prev. 2.3%); 2026 GDP growth at 3.3% (prev. 2.6%) and 2027 at 2.9% (prev. 2.1%). BoK says rate decision was not unanimous as Board Member Hwang dissented on rate decision, while inflation is projected to remain above target level for a considerable time
  • NAB expects the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps to 4.6% in September.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag, classification society and insurer, and that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers, Nour News reported citing an official.
  • An Iranian lawmaker said Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and vessels from the US, France, Britain or other hostile countries to enter the region.
  • Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Pakistan is not obliged to comply with unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran, while UN sanctions would constitute a different matter.
  • Iraqi sources report an airstrike on the main base of separatist terrorist groups in the city of Sorran, located in the Erbil province of Iraqi Kurdistan region, according to Fars News Agency.
  • Two explosions were reported in Mokha, Yemen, from missiles fired by the Houthis

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • CIA chief’s recent surprise trip to Moscow was to warn Russia not to attack NATO, according to WSJ.
  • Russian Government Spokesperson Peskov said Russia’s response to Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s economic and trade infrastructure will be harsh.
  • Russia’s Kremlin said Moscow remains open to participating in negotiations for a Ukrainian settlement, Al Arabiya reported.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry said the UK should abandon its hostile position towards Russia, which creates risks of transferring the conflict to a fundamentally new level, IFX reported.
  • Russia attacked an industrial facility in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, according to Ukrainian authorities.
  • EU states resurrect plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, with Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain pushing to use the funds to solve Kyiv’s funding crisis, according to FT

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea denounced the US’ decision to sell weapons to South Korea and said US hostility to North Korea is clearly acknowledged, while it will respond swiftly and decisively to hostile actions, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jul P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: Aug 22 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 208k, prior 206k
  • 8:30 am: Aug 15 Continuing Claims, est. 1792k, prior 1799k

Central Bank Speakers 

  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Hammack to appear on CNBC
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Appears on Fox Business

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a mixed session yesterday, the market mood has turned more positive again overnight following Nvidia’s earnings last night. The chipmaker’s results delivered a moderate revenue beat, with revenue guidance for the current quarter also coming slightly ahead of expectations ($108bn vs $105.2bn est.). Crucially, this was accompanied by a bullish medium-term outlook from the company’s management on the conference call, who expected revenue growth of around 70% in the next fiscal year that starts in January 2027. So this signaled greater optimism that current runaway growth in AI demand would continue into next year.

Nvidia’s shares were up by +4.7% by the end of after-hours trading, after a -1.59% decline in yesterday’s regular session, helping futures on the S&P 500 (+0.48%) and Nasdaq (+0.83%) to decent gains overnight. The tech mood has also been helped by encouraging results from Salesforce, which released a slightly stronger-than-expected sales outlook and a deepening of its partnership with Anthropic, as well as CrowdStrike, whose shares jumped by nearly +10% after-hours. The positive tech sentiment has supported gains in Asia this morning, with the Kospi (+1.49%) leading the way, while the CSI 300 (+0.50%), Shanghai Composite (+0.60%) and Nikkei (+0.18%) are also all in the green, although the Hang Seng (-0.46%) is drifting lower.

Ahead of Nvidia’s results, equities had had a quiet day, with the S&P 500 (-0.02%), Nasdaq (-0.08%) and Mag-7 (-0.13%) all seeing marginal declines. European equities also saw muted moves, with the STOXX 600 (-0.01%) barely changed, while the DAX (+0.08%), CAC (+0.27%) and FTSEMIB (+0.31%) posted small advances.

Before that, yesterday’s main highlight was a hawkish-leaning batch of US data. While July core PCE inflation came in line with consensus at +0.2% mom, the details of the release were more inflationary. The unrounded reading was +0.246%, so just a smidgen from rounding up to +0.3%. That’s stronger than had been implied by the CPI and PPI prints as super core services PCE rose by +0.28% mom. There were also upward revisions to core PCE inflation for the previous three months, leaving the 3- and 6-month annualized rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, so showing little sign of progress on disinflation. And other details of the PCE release were on the stronger side, with personal income rising +0.4% mom (vs +0.2% exp.).

Meanwhile, other US data releases pointed to strong economic momentum. Durable goods orders rose by +1.1% in July (vs +0.5% expected), with capital goods shipment growth (+1.4% mom vs +1.1% exp.) accelerating to an impressive +11.3% yoy. Finally, the second release of the Q2 GDP print saw consumer spending revised higher (from +3.2% to +3.4% annualized). That meant real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key metric of underlying domestic demand, rose by +4.2% annualized in Q2, their strongest gain since early 2023, even as the Iran energy shock dragged on purchasing power. In all, it was a solid slate of data that’s hard to square with a view that Fed policy is restrictive.

US rates saw some hawkish repricing in response. While pricing of a September Fed hike was pretty stable (up from 36% to 37%), there was greater repricing of Fed expectations further out with 42bps of hikes now being priced by next June (+3.7bps on the day). This left 2yr Treasury yields +3.6bps higher at 4.21%. The sell-off was more modest at the long-end, with the 10yr up +1.8bps and the 30yr a marginal +0.2bps. We’ve seen a sizeable flattening of the Treasury curve since the surprise buyback announcement last Wednesday, with the 2s30s slope down by -15.5bps over this period.

European bond markets saw an even clearer reversal from Tuesday’s rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.0bps), BTPs (+5.3bps) and gilts (+4.3bps) all moving higher. We heard from the ECB’s Schnabel, who underlined her position as one of the most hawkish voices on the ECB Governing Council. She told Bloomberg that “further tightening will be necessary”, adding that given “resilient aggregate demand, it is critical to prevent the occurrence of second-round effects early on”. That said, Schnabel did little to push back on current market pricing, saying that markets “seem to understand our reaction function very well”. That comes as OIS markets are pricing 62bps of ECB hikes by next June (+6.5bps yesterday), including the almost fully priced hike for the upcoming September meeting.

Staying in Europe, tonight we’ll see the first French presidential debate ahead of the April 2027 election. The gradual heating up of the pre-election campaign comes as a widening of French sovereign spreads over summer has left France with the highest 10yr yield among the large and medium-sized euro area economies. The French far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon drew attention on Tuesday night as he revived the call to cancel French debt currently held by the Banque de France, though this idea has been dismissed by other politicians across France’s political spectrum including RN’s Bardella.

On the geopolitical front, we saw limited news on Iran, with some of the optimism that emerged the day before fading as Reuters reported, citing Iranian sources, that an agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been finalized. Brent crude still ended the day -0.84% lower at $87.84/bbl, but was well off the lows of around $86 early in the European session. This morning Brent is down another -0.48%.

In yesterday’s other notable market moves, both wheat (+6.56%) and corn (+2.70%) prices spiked to their highest level in three years. Strikes between Russia and Ukraine have caused major disruption to both countries’ grain exports over the past several weeks and yesterday’s mood wasn’t helped by a Bloomberg report claiming that Russia’s President Putin is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine. The decline in Ukrainian and Russian grain exports has intensified a challenging backdrop for agriculture prices that also includes the emergent El Niño, this summer’s drought in Europe and the disruption to fertilizer exports out of the Gulf.

Elsewhere in Asia, the BoK raised its policy rate for the second consecutive time, hiking from 2.75% to 3.0%. Although the hike was widely expected, the market surprise came from the bank’s upgraded growth projections, with GDP for 2026 now at 3.3% (2.6% prevs) and 2027 at 2.9% (2.1% prevs). Although Korean rates initially came under pressure following the announcement, ten-year futures have since recovered and are trading around 32 ticks higher.

To the day ahead now, US data releases include July advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and weekly jobless claims, while in Europe we’ll have Germany September GfK consumer confidence, France July PPI and Eurozone July M3 data. On the central bank side, we’ll get the accounts of the July ECB meeting and the Jackson Hole symposium will get under way, though its main highlights, including Warsh’s speech, will be on Friday. Earnings include Marvell, Workday, Affirm and Dollar Tree. And France will see its first major presidential debate ahead of the April 2027 election.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/27/2026 – 07:59

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