The British government has banned “step” porn, where the porn stars pretend to be related in a scripted format. Meanwhile, a bill earlier this year to ban first cousin marriage was rejected.
The crackdown targets consenting adults role-playing taboo family scenarios, including step-family tropes.
Offenders face prison time, and platforms must block UK access or face Ofcom fines. It’s sold as “protecting children” and aligning online rules with offline laws.
Ban on step incest porn and ‘barely legal’ content in government climbdownhttps://t.co/FrwZcknX8v
First-cousin marriage remains fully legal in the UK. A Tory MP’s bill to prohibit it was blocked. Successive governments, including the current one, have opted for “education” and genetic counselling instead of legislation.
An NHS report last year even highlighted supposed “benefits” of first-cousin marriage – stronger family networks and economic stability – before being quietly pulled after public backlash.
Critics have repeatedly pointed out that such unions are far more common in certain Muslim communities, particularly among British Pakistani groups where rates have historically hit 40-55 percent in places like Bradford.
Many argue that’s precisely why Westminster refuses to touch the issue with a bargepole – cultural sensitivity trumps public health data showing doubled risks of serious birth defects, genetic disorders, and long-term strain on the NHS.
🇬🇧 “They did a study in Bradford, UK where there’s a high propensity of Cousin marriage and they found – that first Cousin babies had doubled the chance of a recessive gene disorder”
“Higher infant mortality rates, kidney and liver problems, developmental disorders”
Meanwhile, the porn ban isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s the latest incremental step in a broader push that funnels users through age-verification gateways. Those systems don’t stop at blocking “step” content or barely-legal role-play. They lay the groundwork for something far more permanent.
As we previously detailed, Apple is already forcing iPhone users in the U.K. to prove age with ID or lose unrestricted internet access:
Similar pressures are mounting on phones and devices across the board:
The UK government’s plans for newborn digital IDs show the endgame: cradle-to-grave tracking dressed up as child protection:
This is classic nanny-state sleight of hand. Ban the pretend taboo to justify scanning everyone’s ID at the digital door, while the real taboo that carries measurable human costs gets waved through for political reasons.
Fictional step-siblings on a screen? Criminal. Actual cousin marriages producing children with elevated health risks? Carry on, just don’t film it.
The message to the public is unmistakable: your private fantasies are the state’s business, but protecting future generations from documented genetic harm is not – especially if it risks offending key voting blocs.
Britain’s ruling class has its priorities exactly backwards. While they lecture the public on online harms and roll out surveillance-by-stealth, they leave untouched practices that clash with basic Western norms of family and child welfare.
Freedom isn’t protected by banning role-play; it’s eroded when governments pick and choose which realities to ignore for the sake of political convenience.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
$92 Million In Banned AI Chips Went From Super Micro To Little Known Chinese Tech Company
A little-known Chinese tech company saw its stock drop sharply after U.S. authorities charged a co-founder of Super Micro Computer with illegally smuggling advanced AI chips into China, according to Bloomberg.
The case is putting fresh focus on how restricted American technology may still be entering the country.
The company, Sharetronic Data Technology, quickly denied any connection to Super Micro and said it complies with all hardware purchasing regulations. However, newly surfaced records tell a more complicated story.
Those records suggest that Sharetronic procured hundreds of Super Micro systems containing high-end chips from Nvidia Corp.—technology that has been banned from being sold to or used within China without approval from Washington since 2022.
The documents point to shipments of servers equipped with Nvidia’s H100 and H200 processors, widely used for training and running advanced AI systems. Some of these systems were reportedly transferred between company entities, raising further questions about how they were obtained.
Bloomberg writes that although the overall scale is small compared to major tech giants, the situation highlights strong demand in China for restricted AI hardware. Companies like Sharetronic often rely on these systems to rent computing power to clients, making access especially valuable.
The case also underscores the difficulty of tracking where sensitive technology ends up. Both Nvidia and Super Micro have said they do not knowingly supply restricted products without proper authorization, yet the records suggest such equipment may still circulate.
As the U.S. continues tightening export controls, this situation highlights gaps in enforcement and leaves open bigger questions about whether current measures are enough to fully limit the global flow of advanced AI chips.
Back in March, Federal prosecutors charged a co-founder of Super Micro Computer Inc. and two associates with participating in a scheme to divert roughly $2.5 billion in advanced Nvidia chips to China. The charges marked a notable escalation in Washington’s effort to police the flow of high-end artificial-intelligence hardware, shifting focus from overseas resellers to individuals with direct ties to U.S. technology firms.
Now defunct short seller Hindenburg Research had identified the executive by name in a report they published earlier the year before.
$SMCI board member Wally Liaw and others were indicted today on allegations of export control violations, as we had alleged in detail in our August 2024 @HindenburgRes report.
A major new study has found that France’s food delivery sector is almost exclusively staffed by migrant workers, a majority of whom are living in France illegally.
The Enquête report, based on a survey of more than 1,000 riders in Paris and Bordeaux, reveals that 98.7 percent of delivery couriers were born outside France, with nearly two-thirds lacking legal residency status, highlighting the extent to which the platform economy depends on a highly vulnerable migrant labor force.
The workforce is dominated by recent arrivals from Africa, the majority of whom are not undertaking any other education or training in France.
A total of 55.2 percent of riders come from West Africa, making it by far the largest group. A further 17.4 percent are from North Africa, while 4.6 percent come from other African countries, meaning that over 77 percent of all riders are African-born. By comparison, 16.6 percent are from Asia, 4 percent from the Middle East, and fewer than 2 percent from France.
Most riders are new or relatively new arrivals. Some 98 percent of those surveyed had arrived in France after 2014, while 47.2 percent had arrived in the last five years.
🚴 « Ubérisation » et immigration clandestine
La quasi-totalité des livreurs de repas pour des plateformes numériques sont des immigrés récents.
➡️ Deux tiers des livreurs sont en situation irrégulière.
— Observatoire de l’immigration et de la démographie (@ObservatoireID) April 2, 2026
The vast majority do not have the right to work in France and are living there illegally — 64.4 percent of riders have no residence permit, meaning they are undocumented. Among the remainder, 12.4 percent hold a residence permit of at least one year, 9.7 percent have a permit of less than one year, and 13.3 percent have a 10-year residency card.
Many operate using accounts rented from third parties to circumvent work requirements, creating an additional layer of economic dependency.
The findings suggest that this structure helps explain the extreme working patterns documented in the report. Riders work an average of 63 hours per week, with most working six or seven days, often year-round. Despite this, average gross earnings were just €1,480 per month, with hourly pay equivalent to €5.83 before expenses.
Washington, D.C. Will Feel Like June Next Week. Cue MSM Climate Doom Propaganda
After a stretch of roller-coaster temperature swings across the Mid-Atlantic in March and early April, the midpoint of the month is now shaping up to be unusually warm, with highs that could exceed the region’s average for June. That kind of temperature anomaly could prompt left-wing corporate media outlets to kick off their seasonal global-warming doom news cycle as summer approaches.
“Temperatures will soar well into the 80s just a week later, and on Thursday, it will be near 90 degrees. That’s more like June or July,” meteorologist Ben Noll wrote in a weather note titled “Hello…summer?” while referring to the U.S. East Coast.
Noll continued, “That’s the type of variability that spring is known for, but a 70-degree temperature swing is more like whiplash. It will feel like summer up and down the East Coast this week as a big ridge of high-pressure flexes its muscles and sends sultry air northward.”
However, he noted, “It won’t last. Much cooler air from Canada will sweep in late next weekend or to start the week of April 20.”
The latest data from Bloomberg shows highs in the Washington, DC area will trend near the 90s this week into Saturday, but expect a sharp drop in high temperatures late next weekend.
Average temperatures across the Capital Beltway will hover near 80F this coming week, well above the 30-year norm of around 57°F.
Like clockwork, the left-wing corporate media propaganda machine during the Biden-Harris regime years used global-warming headlines to mislead the public about an imaginary climate crisis so that green policies could get passed and climate NGOs could get funded – all to loot US taxpayers.
With President Trump back in power, left-wing MSM outlets dialed back the climate-fear propaganda in 2025.
The big question now is whether MSM will reactivate their climate crisis megaphone as the week’s unusual warmth spreads across the U.S. East.
Half Of US Data Centers Scheduled To Start In 2026, Will Be Canceled Or Delayed
Just over two years ago, we first penned our views on “The Next AI Trade“, which looked beyond the hyperscalers and the data centers supporting the AI revolution, and instead focused on the energy and logistical needs that would be so very critical in allowing the US to dominate China in the existential race to first reach Artificial General Intelligence (which many have dubbed the next nuclear arms race due to its profound civilizational implications). It was here that we defined the “Power Up America” basket as the next AI trade.
Yet as one can see in the chart below, after outperforming the AI Data center and the TMT AI baskets in 2024 and much of 2025, the Power Up America trade has lagged and clearly underperformed, as some investors have started to express doubt that the US would ever be able to “grow” into its massive AI computing needs… with dire consequences for record AI capex budgets, something the market has yet to grasp.
And unfortunately, with every passing day, the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim.
That’s because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas writes, “the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction.” He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation’s planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.
This inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.
That’s right: half.
That’s right: despite $700BN+ of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US
in 2026 “will either face delays or outright cancellations.” The data, which comes from Sightline Climate’s 2026 Data Center Outlook, suggests that just 30% – 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!
And the horizon only grows darker in the coming years. By 2027, the gap between ambition and reality widens further, as a mere fraction of the announced 21.5 gigawatts has actually broken ground. Worse, according to Futurism, data centers slated to open in 2027 are progressing far more slowly than anticipated. “Only about 6.3 gigawatts worth of computing infrastructure are actually under construction, compared to 21.5 announced gigawatts.”
And then visibility drops to virtually nothing beyond 2028 as uncertainty increases materially in the outer years. According to the article, “things get even dodgier in the coming years, with the vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 having yet to even break ground. There are a further 37 gigawatts of planned infrastructure which haven’t even received a firm completion date, only 4.5 [gigawatts] of which have actually begun work.”
This trend suggests an increasingly uncertain future for the industry, where power constraints and grid instability cast long shadows over projects slated through 2032.
But while one can pretend the future is irrelevant, the same limitations are visible in the here and now: according to the SightLine report, “at least 16GW of data center capacity is slated to come online this year across 140 projects. 53% will be grid connected, 3% will be powered solely by on-site power, and 25% have not disclosed their powering strategies. We expect 30-50% of these projects to be delayed. Only 5GW is currently in construction.”
And the punchline:
“We expect 30-50% of 2026 projects to be delayed, driven by power constraints (25% of projects have not disclosed powering strategies), increasingly effective community opposition, and potential grid equipment shortages. 11GW of 2026 capacity remains in the announced stage with no signs of construction, despite typical build times of 12 to 18 months. Itʼs still possible for this capacity to come online, but it would need to dramatically accelerate.”
Which brings us to the question we raised more than two years ago: how will the US modernize its ancient power grid and build out the huge energy supply needed to power up the AI revolution. Here, too, it appears there has been little progress:
“On-site and hybrid power punch above their weight when measured by capacity. Grid-connected projects still lead at 40% of total capacity, but on-site generation and hybrid approaches together account for close to half of announced capacity, far exceeding their share by project count. A small number of gigascale, grid independent campuses account for this capacity, including New Era Energy & Digitalʼs 7GW project in Lea County, Homer Cityʼs 4.5 GW coal-to-gas redevelopment in Pennsylvania, and Crusoeʼs 1.8GW natural gas and renewables project in Cheyenne, Wyoming. These projects are large enough to require their own generation plant, and have the capital to fund it. Waiting for the grid to supply this level of capacity could take a decade.”
The problem, as Canaccord warns, is that “without a radical acceleration in domestic manufacturing and grid integration, the digital expansion of the late 2020s risks stalling into a series of unfulfilled promises.”
Others agree: in a note published over the weekend by Goldman Executive Direct Shreeti Kapa, she wrote that at a recent dinner with investors, the overwhelming consensus was that “there is simply not enough compute and every player is acutely compute constrained – bottlenecks from fabs to permitting for data-centers to power to memory to labor are real and are here to stay for some time to come. I wasn’t sure what to make of it – if its consensus is it peak, or is the imagination for scale of AI demand is so great among a very small sub-segment of investors & technologists here in the valley and the rest of the word is yet to catch-up?”
While imaginations may indeed by running wild, the hard limitations in the real world are indeed starting to catch up: we recently highlighted OpenAI’s decision to pause its UK Stargate project – a partnership with Nvidia and Nscale to deploy up to 31k GPUs – citing the UK’s prohibitive energy costs and regulatory hurdles. The project was to be based across several sites including Cobalt Park and a dedicated “AI Growth Zone”, enabling OpenAI’s models to provide local compute for critical public services and highly regulated industries including finance and national security.
UK energy prices represent a key bottleneck to AI infrastructure development. According to the report, UK’s industrial prices “are among the highest in the world” and have been a key gating factor delaying companies from building AI infrastructure. According to a spokesperson from OpenAI, “we continue to explore Stargate U.K. and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”
OpenAI and Nscale maintain plans to develop the project in the future. According to the OpenAI spokesperson, “We see huge potential for the U.K.’s AI future… London is home to our largest international research hub, and we support the Government’s ambition to be an AI leader. In the meantime, we are investing in talent and expanding our local presence, while also delivering on the commitments under our MOU with the government to adopt frontier AI in UK public services.”
Bloomberg also chimed in earlier this month, writing that “as the global AI race heats up, there is a huge rush to build data centers fast. There’s no lack of money chasing these projects, with tech giants Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com, Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. committed to spending more than $650 billion this year alone. Yet neither ambition nor capital is enough to materialize all the necessary components.”
Here Bloomberg again quotes the Sightline data, noting that “almost half of the US data centers planned for this year are expected to be delayed or canceled” and as one big reason for the delay Bloomberg cites the shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries: “They are needed not just for powering AI, but also for building out the grid that is seeing increased consumption from electric cars and heat pumps. US manufacturing capacity for these devices cannot keep up with demand, and the scarcity has caused data center builders to rely on imports.”
At its core, the problem is the lack of domestic manufacturing which makes sense for a country that has outsourced much of its industrial base to China in the past century, and despite loud promises of reshoring, there are few tangible results.
Indeed, while over the past 10 years, the US government has tried a series of policies to reshore manufacturing, they haven’t yet yielded a significant boost to domestic capacity, forcing businesses to look to China regardless of the tariffs or the alleged national security risk. As a result, the US now finds itself in an absurd Catch 22: the US needs crucial parts from China to dominate it in the AI race, while China needs advanced chips from American companies to stay in the race.
The biggest bottlenecks, understandably, have been observed in the power space – the same space we aggressively pitched two years ago as enabling the AI revolution, hoping that whoever was in charge of the US would take America’s chronic energy deficiency seriously. It appears we may have been overly optimistic. One thing is clear: data centers have rapidly grown in size and now consume more electricity than their predecessors a decade ago. That demands bigger transformers, which safely pull electricity from the high-voltage grid to feed to tiny computer chips. Without the right transformers, there’s no way to make the data center work.
Before 2020, these high-power transformers typically arrived 24 to 30 months after an order was placed. Those timelines were “totally manageable in the old world” when data centers didn’t need such large transformers or at such short timelines, says Philippe Piron, chief executive officer of GE Vernova’s electrification division. But AI companies “want something typically in less than 18 months.”
The spike in demand from data centers and grid expansion have pushed up prices and extended delivery times to as much as five years. That is why some, like Crusoe, have even resorted to refurbishing old transformers from shuttered power plants as a stopgap measure.
Meanwhile, a far greater looming problem is where will the US source the dozens of Gigawatts needed to power up the AI revolution. So far Trump’s promises of a nuclear renaissance have remained just that, with virtually no new nuclear power plants breaking ground, while the push for small modular reactors – a ray of hope in an otherwise dreary landscape – is still years away from practical results, let alone scale.
Oh, and there is the question of who pays for all this: by now everyone knows about the hundreds of billions in capex the hyperscalers will spend over the next few years.
What fewer people know is that this money won’t be enough. According to an analysis by JPMorgan, it will take no less than $5 trillion to fund the AI cycle, and even with the massive capex – and debt outlays – the US government will still be on the hook for over a trillion to close the funding gap.
It’s not just power: as Canaccord writes, beyond the power-related technicalities “lies a fraught sociopolitical reality”.
Consider the following: The Maine House of Representatives approved a moratorium on large-scale data centers until 2027. This pause allows a newly formed coordination council to weigh innovation against environmental and resource stewardship. The House passed the bill 82-62, advancing it to the Senate. The goal of the bill, according to state representatives, is not to fight innovation, but as a pause for planning to improve stewardship of the state’s resources and limit financial and environmental impacts on the state’s citizens. In addition to the moratorium, “the bill also creates the Maine Data Center Coordination Council, and instructs the council to provide strategic input, facilitate planning considerations and evaluate policy tools to address data center opportunities.”
Simultaneously, OpenAI faces mounting scrutiny as Florida’s Attorney General launched an investigation into the company following the release of safety-critical chat logs. And then there was last week’s firebomb attack on Sam Altman’s home: while the police are still investigating, and there are many reasons why someone may want to express their “displeasure” with the man behind ChatGPT, the reality is that, as we warned last August, “between exploding electricity bills and lack of jobs for grads, a new luddite revolution is coming – they will be burning down data centers within a year.”
between exploding electricity bills and lack of jobs for grads, a new luddite revolution is coming – they will be burning down data centers within a year
Sure enough, these institutional shifts arrive as a recent Quinnipiac University poll – which looked at AI use and its impacts on daily life, education and healthcare – confirmed the public is growing increasingly wary of AI’s deepening integration into healthcare, education, and daily life. Here are some of the findings showing just how rapidly public sentiment has turned against AI:
The bottom line is that the time for talk has long passed, and yet for all the posturing, the US government continues to act as if a victory against China in the AI race is a given. It is anything but, especially with America’s own society rapidly turning against the next industrial revolution.
As Canaccord concludes, “Not only are the energy constraints mounting, but so are the sociopolitical ones. Something’s got to give.“
In Mary Shelley’s famous work, Dr. Frankenstein is asked, “Accursed creator! Why did you form a monster so hideous that even you turned from me in disgust?”
This week, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D. Calif.), the leading Democratic candidate for California governor, may wish he could ask that of former Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.). After sexual assault allegations were raised by former staff members, Pelosi, Sen. Adam Schiff (D., Calif.), and even his close friend (and former campaign chair) Sen. Ruben Gallego (D., Ariz.) have withdrawn their endorsements.
The fact, however, is that (regardless of the merits of these latest allegations), Swalwell was always a notorious figure in Washington who was constructed by Pelosi and others to serve their interests.
As Pelosi and his other allies now seek to destroy him, they cannot escape their hand in his creation.
Multiple women came forward this week to allege sexual assault and other potentially criminal acts by Swalwell. The first allegations came from a former staffer who said that she was raped twice by Swalwell, who had sex with her when she was too drunk to consent. Swalwell is denying the allegations.
Four women spoke to the Chronicle; one former staffer alleged that she tried to fight off Swalwell who left her bruised and bleeding after a rape. Even CNN, which eagerly featured Swalwell on programs as he attacked the Trump Administration, ran detailed accounts of another alleged assault in a hotel room. One of these accounts is from February of this year.
The accounts, if true, suggest that Swalwell is not just a sexual harasser but a sexual predator operating in plain view. One woman, Ally Sammarco, alleged that she (like other women) received nude photos of Swalwell as well as inappropriate social media messages.
Swalwell’s scandal is about as surprising in Washington as the return of the cicadas.
Swalwell was infamously accused of having an affair with an alleged Chinese spy named Fang Fang. His patron in Congress, then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, immediately moved to protect him, declaring, “I don’t have any concern about Mr. Swalwell.”
Pelosi even blocked efforts to remove him from the House Intelligence Committee despite obvious concerns that he was susceptible to blackmail over his sexual trysts. She lashed out at those calling for his removal in the interests of national security, declaring “I do think that it is unfortunate that Mr. McCarthy is trying to make an issue of this.”
After sexual assault allegations were raised by former staff members, Pelosi, Sen. Adam Schiff and even his close friend (and former campaign chair) Sen. Ruben Gallego have withdrawn their endorsements.
What these women are describing is a politician who felt that he had a license to prey on female staffers. I wonder who gave him that impression?
For years, the Democratic establishment and the media ignored any rumors surrounding Swalwell because he was their useful monster, someone who was an attack dog always straining at the leash.
Swalwell was always the first to a mob. Indeed, he now hopes that voters will not apply the same standard he applied to figures like Justice Brett Kavanaugh. In his confirmation hearing, Kavanaugh faced an allegation of attempted rape from high school, and Swalwell had little patience for those of us arguing for a modicum of due process.
Swalwell said that Kavanaugh’s guilt was self-evident: “More and more cases that are separate and independent, that look the same, pretty soon a prosecutor starts to say to a jury … that the arrows are pointing in the same direction.”
On the Epstein matter, Swalwell demanded full disclosure and called legal concerns “bulls****” in a screaming match with FBI Director Kash Patel.
It is now a pile-on as Swalwell’s former enablers run for cover: even Gallego, who posed with Swalwell bare-chested on camels in Qatar. Notably, no one seemed concerned that the trade group US-Qatar Business Council spent more than $84,000 to fly Swalwell, Gallego, and their loved ones to Qatar for the luxurious trip.
The most obvious beneficiary of the scandal, Katie Porter, has denied any involvement with the woman who organized the disclosures against Swalwell. The irony is that Swalwell’s scandal will remove a candidate who has allegedly physically assaulted staffers in favor of a candidate who has verbally assaulted staffers.
The implosion of Eric Swalwell is raising questions about how so many close associates and friends could not have known about the rumors of his misconduct. Now, suddenly, Swalwell has no friends or allies after years of being praised by Pelosi and many in the media.
Mary Shelley made the point most vividly in Frankenstein that there is little difference between the creators and the monsters in such moments: “It is true, we shall be monsters, cut off from all the world; but on that account we shall be more attached to one another.”
Swalwell Quits CA Governor’s Race Amid Sexual Assault Allegations
Update: Swalwell suspended his California gubernatorial campaign on Sunday as furor over his sex assault allegations reached a fever pitch.
“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” he wrote on X. “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
I am suspending my campaign for Governor.
To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.
I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.
Swalwell’s decision came after a firehose of Democrats pulled their support and told him to quit.
* * *
The latest:
• Eric Swalwell’s California governor campaign collapsed after sexual assault allegations.
• Former staffer alleged harassment plus two assaults while she was intoxicated.
• Four women total have accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct.
• Swalwell denies all claims as false and politically motivated.
• Major Democratic allies withdrew support and called for him to exit the race.
– Update (as of Saturday morning): Since the San Francisco Chronicle story and initial fallout (including Hakeem Jeffries’ call for Swalwell to step down), Swalwell released a video across social media strongly denying the allegations as “flat false” and confirming he is not dropping out of the governor’s race. In the video Swalwell specifically referred to the accusations as coming from “anonymous” people, even though at least one woman (the primary accuser) has come forward publicly and given an on-camera interview to CNN.
Hear it directly from me. These allegations are flat false. And I will fight them. pic.twitter.com/bQSlCquD1U
CNN’s follow-up confirmed four women total have now alleged misconduct – including the named Chronicle/CNN accuser (former staffer) plus three others citing unwanted touching, intoxicated encounters, and unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos. Additional prominent Democrats (Sen. Adam Schiff, campaign co-chairs Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray) withdrew endorsements and joined calls for Swalwell to exit the race and resign from Congress. More unions and rival candidates echoed those demands.
The campaign saw continued staff departures, quietly removed its endorsements page (now a 404 error), and faces legal threats against accusers. Prediction markets price his win odds at roughly 4-5% and show ~86%+ odds he drops out before the June primary. Republicans (including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna) have filed motions to expel him from the House. No formal investigations or lawsuits have been publicly filed yet, but the political damage appears severe and possibly irreversible.
Eric Swalwell’s chances of becoming California’s next corrupt governor cratered on Friday after detailed sexual assault allegations from a former district-office staffer were published in the San Francisco Chronicle.
Polymarket odds of becoming California’s next governor are at 4% as of this writing…
The stunning drop – visible in real time on platforms such as Polymarket, where “Yes” contracts on Swalwell’s victory traded as high as $1,100 earlier in the day before cratering to pennies – reflects a campaign that appears to be in free fall just weeks before ballots drop in the June primary. Traders piled into the “No” side at 96 cents, effectively pricing in the congressman’s political demise in the nation’s largest state.
The Allegations
A woman who worked in Swalwell’s Castro Valley district office for nearly two years, beginning around 2019 when she was 21, alleged that Swalwell sexually harassed her as soon as she started, that they had some consensual encounters while she was on staff, and that he twice sexually assaulted her when she was too intoxicated to consent – once in a 2019 hotel room and again in 2024 after she had left his office. The woman, who is not named in the story, told the Chronicle she felt pressured by his position of power and has lived in fear of coming forward.
“She said Swalwell, who is married and 17 years her senior, tried to kiss her in her car when she drove him home from a donor meeting one night. Driving him to another event weeks later, she said Swalwell pulled out his penis in the car and asked her to perform oral sex on him. She said she did so in a parking lot.
In September 2019, the woman said, Swalwell invited her out for drinks and she became so severely intoxicated that she does not remember the rest of the night. She said she woke up naked in Swalwell’s hotel bed and could feel the effect of vaginal intercourse. She said Swalwell distanced himself from her afterward and the relationship faded.” -The Chronicle
Swalwell immediately rejected the claims as “false” …hang on…
…and politically motivated, calling them a last-ditch effort to kneecap the Democratic primary leader. “For nearly 20 years, I have served the public — as a prosecutor and a congressman – and have always protected women,” he said in a statement. “I will defend myself with the facts and where necessary bring legal action.” His attorney sent a cease-and-desist letter to the accuser’s counsel threatening defamation litigation.
The allegations landed as the campaign was already reeling from weeks of unverified social-media rumors about inappropriate conduct with female staffers. By Friday, the fallout was swift and brutal.
At least four senior aides had resigned in anticipation of the story, according to multiple Democratic sources familiar with the situation. Unions that had endorsed Swalwell, including the powerful UFCW Western States Council, withdrew their support and called on him to suspend his campaign. “The allegations … are extremely detailed, troubling, and gut-wrenching,” the union said in a statement.
Even longtime ally Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) publicly withdrew his endorsement. House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who had been neutral in the race, issued a carefully worded statement Friday night: “This extremely sensitive matter must be appropriately investigated with full transparency and accountability. As I discussed with Congressman Swalwell, it is clear that is best done outside of a gubernatorial campaign.”
* * * Update: House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has called for Swalwell to step down, as well as for an investigation.
Swalwell’s campaign manager, Yardena Wolf – his longtime chief of staff who moved over to run the gubernatorial operation – had personally briefed a small group of online influencers earlier in the week on the initial rumors, sticking to the campaign’s line that the claims were “false, outrageous” and that no NDAs or ethics complaints existed. Wolf has not issued a new public statement since the Chronicle story dropped, and a campaign spokesperson was unreachable Friday night amid the staff exodus.
JUST IN: The ‘Endorsements’ section on Eric Swalwell’s campaign site has been removed and returns a 404 error. pic.twitter.com/sMndosxwWl
The political math in California has shifted overnight. Just weeks ago, Emerson College polling showed Swalwell leading a fragmented Democratic field with 17 percent support and 25 percent undecided. Prediction markets briefly pegged his chances above 60 percent. He had positioned himself as the Democrat best equipped to counter the Trump administration from Sacramento, leveraging his national profile and prosecutorial background.
Now the race is wide open. Rivals who once struggled for attention are suddenly the story, while progressive voices that once gave Swalwell the benefit of the doubt are demanding full investigations – or his immediate exit from the race and even Congress.
The timing has fueled intense partisan finger-pointing. Swalwell allies describe the allegations as a coordinated hit job engineered by flailing opponents and amplified by conservative voices. Supporters of the accuser counter that the details are credible, long-suppressed and too serious to ignore for a candidate seeking the state’s highest office.
Whatever the ultimate legal or electoral verdict, the market verdict is already in. The blue line on the betting charts has turned into a cliff – and Eric Swalwell’s path to the governor’s mansion has all but vanished.
Needless to say, not even Chinese spies will be interested in Eric after this.
Massie For Governor? GOP’s Libertarian Firebrand Talks Political Future
On Friday the Ron Paul Institute (RPI) has highlighted an important and fresh interview touching on the Republican Rep’s political future: Governor Thomas Massie? – RPI’s Adam Dick asks.
“A run for governor may be in the future for Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), but only if he first wins his May 19 Republican primary contest — the next step in his race for reelection to the United States House of Representatives,” the RPI report says.
But, “If Massie loses next month, the seven-term representative says he expects he will call it quits on working in government, stating he would consider the loss as “a sign from God or the people or both that I should go back to the farm.”
President Trump has on more than once occasion personally called out the Libertarian firebrand for vocally opposing the White House on various key issues, and especially most recently on the Iran war.
Massie has been one of the very view GOP members to join Dems in trying to force a Congressional vote to impose limits on Trump’s military actions in Iran. As a reminder:
Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) brought a war powers resolution on Iran to the House floor less than a week after Trump joined Israeli leaders in launching massive strikes against Iran in late February. It failed by a vote of 212-219, with four Democrats bucking their party to oppose it: Reps. Greg Landsman (Ohio), Jared Golden (Maine), Henry Cuellar (Texas) and Juan Vargas (Calif.).
He remains one of the few outspoken ‘non-interventionist’ Republican members of the House. On the Senate side, Rand Paul, also of Kentucky, is Libertarian-leaning and condemns foreign adventurism and ‘wars of choice’.
As for a potential future run for Governor of Kentucky, Massie hinted at it here.
If U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie loses his upcoming primary against a Republican opponent backed by President Donald Trump, you’ll see a whole lot less of him.
“If I lose on May 19, I am not doing any more government ever,” he told University of Louisville students April 6 at an event on campus. “… It’s a sign from God or the people or both that I should go back to the farm.”
But if he wins, Frankfort could be on the mind of the longtime congressman from Northern Kentucky, who’s emerged during Trump’s second term as one of Congress’ most consequential members.
During a question-and-answer portion of his forum, hosted by the school’s College Republicans group, an attendee asked Massie if he would ever consider running for governor. Gov. Andy Beshear is ineligible to run for a third time as he eyes a presidential campaign, leaving the seat open at the end of 2027.
And then came this:
Massie wouldn’t run for a U.S. Senate seat — “it’s the same circus with different clowns, and also they don’t have a discharge petition, which is kind of a neat thing to do” — but he sees the appeal of the governor’s mansion.
“If I do win (the upcoming primary), I would consider it,” responded Massie, who would be up for reelection in 2028 if he wins the 2026 race. He pointed to an old friend he’d served with in Congress for three terms as an example.
“His name was Ron DeSantis,” Massie said. “What I’ve seen him achieve in Florida is inspiring and a lot of people want to move to that state, so I do believe that you could make a difference.”
Grant County GOP put on a great Lincoln Day Dinner last night.
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) April 11, 2026
Massie would have a real shot, given he remains quite popular in Kentucky – but he has an uphill battle in terms of reelection to Congress given Trump’s political machine has turned against him.
The Internal Revenue Service and the Department of the Treasury proposed regulations on Friday regarding the new excise tax, established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, on certain remittances made abroad.
“Beginning Jan. 1, 2026, a 1 percent remittance transfer tax applies to remittances sent from the United States to recipients in foreign countries when the sender provides cash, a money order, a cashier’s check, or other similar physical instrument to the remittance transfer provider,” the IRS said in an April 10 statement.
“The sender is liable for the tax, and remittance transfer providers are required to collect the remittance transfer tax from certain senders, make semimonthly deposits, and file quarterly returns with the IRS. If the remittance transfer provider does not collect the tax from the sender, the tax becomes a liability of the remittance transfer provider.”
The proposed regulations clarify how the remittance transfer tax would be applied.
According to the notice of the proposed rule, the remittance tax is applicable to all eligible transfers irrespective of whether the amount is actually disbursed to the designated recipient.
In case a remittance transfer expires or is canceled and the remittance transfer provider refunds the amount to the sender, the sender can recoup the tax by filing a claim for refund with the IRS.
The tax does not apply to any remittance transfer in which the funds come from a credit or debit card issued in the United States. It is also inapplicable if the funds being sent are withdrawn from an account held in a financial institution.
Any amount that is ultimately transferred to a designated recipient will be taxed, the notice clarified.
The rules affect remittance transfer providers, such as credit unions, banks, and money services businesses, as well as their agents.
There are roughly 600 money services businesses licensed as money transmitters in the United States, out of which more than 200 operate through around 500,000 authorized agents, the IRS said, citing data from the Nationwide Multistate Licensing System.
Between 2019 and 2024, money transfers to domestic and foreign destinations via money services businesses increased from $1.3 to $4 trillion.
“Money transmitted to foreign destinations (remittance transfers) accounted for 9 to 25 percent of the total money transmissions, equaling $236 billion in 2019, growing to almost $1 trillion in 2021 and 2022, but decreasing to $365 billion in 2024,” the notice said.
“Over 2019–2024, annual remittance transfers to foreign destinations through [money service businesses] averaged $520 billion. The average individual money transfer size ranged from $290 to $740 over the same time period.”
The IRS said in its statement that remittance transfer providers must report the new remittance transfer tax via Form 720.
In an Oct. 7 statement, the IRS said that limited penalty relief will be available for remittance transfer providers who fail to deposit the collected remittance taxes in the first three quarters of this year.
“Treasury and the IRS understand there might be challenges implementing the new law and have determined it is in the interest of sound tax administration to provide limited penalty relief related to remittance transfer tax deposits,” the agency said.
Tax Impacts
In a July 1 report, the Center for Global Development said that even at 1 percent, the remittance tax would hit poor countries “hard.” The new tax not only raises costs by 1 percent but can also lead to a dip in remittances.
Mexico stands to lose the most due to the tax imposition, with the loss being more than $1.5 billion per year, the report said. Other nations majorly affected by the tax include India, China, Vietnam, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador.
“Central American countries are projected to suffer the greatest loss relative to their gross national income (GNI), with El Salvador—a close ally of the Trump administration—projected to lose the equivalent of 0.6 percent of GNI,” the report said.
“Where the effects of the tax are significant relative to GNI, countries could experience lower household incomes, weaker consumer demand, and increased exchange rate pressures.”
The Federation for American Immigration Reform blamed remittances for causing the United States’ economy to lose at least $200 billion per year, according to a July 22 report.
This amount is more than enough to run the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department combined. It is also four times the amount spent on the Department of Justice.
“Remittances represent a substantial loss to the U.S. economy. The money that is sent out of the United States is money that is not spent on goods and services in the United States,” the report said.
“The loss of money remitted also means no benefits from the sales, excise, and restaurant taxes, etc. attached to those goods and services. Indeed, remittances carry a significant opportunity cost.”
CENTCOM confirms blockade to begin at 1000ET Monday morning and will only impact Iran-related vessels
President Trump begins blockading the Strait of Hormuz, warns US military will “finish up the little that is left of Iran”
Door for diplomacy remains open, WSJ reports: Regional countries are racing to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without a deal
The US delegation in Islamabad delivered the following six “red lines” to Iran: 1) End all uranium enrichment; 2) Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities; 3) Retrieve highly enriched uranium; 4) Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies; 5) End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; 6) Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage
2 Supertankers U-turn after peace deal talks fail
UAE Oil Chief warns Iran blocking Hormuz is “a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation”
The odds of a peace deal by the end of the ceasefire period have improved modestly today but remain down significantly from pre-talks…
Trump Weighs Limited Strikes On Iran
Brent crude futures are up 7.5% to around $102 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures traded down about 1% after President Trump ordered the U.S. military to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, beginning Monday morning.
A Wall Street Journal report indicates that President Trump is weighing limited strikes on high-value Iranian assets to break the stalemate in peace talks.
The report continued:
That is among the options that Trump was considering Sunday, hours after negotiations collapsed in Pakistan, the officials said.
Trump could also resume a full-fledged bombing campaign, though officials said that was less likely given the prospect of further destabilizing the region and the president’s aversion to prolonged military conflicts.
He could also seek a more temporary blockade while he pressures allies to take responsibility for a prolonged military escort mission through the strait in the future.
U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended late Saturday without an agreement. These periods generally allow both sides to restock weapons and prepare for the next phase of fighting.
OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) accounts on X are reporting a steady stream of U.S. Air Force cargo jets heading to the Middle East late Sunday.
The amount of US airforce transports heading to the Middle East tonight is insane.
“My advice to the White House folks I’ve spoken to is secure the strait at any cost and immediately as a matter of economic and national and global security,” said Steve Moore, a former economic adviser to Trump, who was quoted by the WSJ.
Moore noted, “We have the power to protect the flow of international trade and must use it. Or the whole world economy could tumble into a global recession.”
Fred Fleitz, a senior National Security Council official during Trump’s first term, told the outlet that Iran’s large delegation to Islamabad showed that a diplomatic solution is possible.
“I think Trump’s right, Iran is out of cards,” Fleitz said. “This conflict has only been going on for a few weeks. It’s too early to know how this will come out, but I think it looks promising.”
CENTCOM Says Blockade Will Begin Monday Morning at 1000ET
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, according to a statement on X.
CENTCOM provided some further clarification regarding who will be blocked, in accordance with President Trump’s earlier proclamation.
Specifically, they are only (and impartially) blocking any vessel leaving or entering an Iranian port…
The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
But, vessels from non-Iranian ports are free to transit the Strait
CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
Now the fun begins.
Iran Says It Won’t Allow Blockade Of Hormuz Strait, But Room For Diplomacy Remains
As the US failed to open the Strait of Hormuz, it is also “doomed to fail in a naval blockade,” Iran’s military adviser to the supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaee, said in a post on X.
Iran’s armed forces “will not allow America to do so and have great untapped leverage to counter it,” he adds.
“Iran is not a place to be surrounded by tweets and imaginary plans.”
However, despite defiant statements from the U.S. and Iran, The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to regional officials familiar with the matter said, the door remains open for further diplomacy and a second round of talks could be held within days. Regional countries were also in consultation with the U.S. to secure an extension of the fragile two-week ceasefire period announced late Tuesday, they said.
The Islamabad talks were the highest-level face-to-face meeting between American and Iranian leaders since 1979. The main sticking points, said the officials, were reopening the Strait of Hormuz without collecting fees, the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released. Iranian officials have presented counterproposals to continue to enrich token amounts or curtail its stockpile of enriched uranium, but the two sides were unable to reach a compromise, the officials said.
Trump’s 6 Red Lines
Fox News reports that Vice President Vance’s final offer delivered to the Iranian delegation in Islamabad includes the following “red lines.”
End all uranium enrichment
Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities
Retrieve highly enriched uranium
Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies
End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage
Needless to say, Iran refused to agree.
President Trump Begins Blockading Strait Of Hormuz
President Trump said the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of peace talks with Iran in Islamabad this weekend.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a social media post.
In a pair of lengthy social media posts, Trump first explained the situation in the Strait…
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so.
This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.
They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up.
They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?
There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that.
As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.
I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.
Before discussing the outcome of the talks:
The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!
In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.
My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
Trump noted that talks went well… until they didn’t…
“So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.“
The US president is hopeful…
At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them.
But then came the threats, with Trump apparently widening his purview to international waters:
THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.
I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.
No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.
We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.
Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!
And the art of the deal… Escalate to De-Escalate… how long can Iran last with no oil revenues at all?
Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country.
Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition.
The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.
They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear.
Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!
Trump’s decision follows his re-tweeting of this story from JustTheNews.com, suggesting that he could reprise his successful Venezuela blockade strategy to choke an already teetering Iranian economy and ratchet up diplomatic pressure on China and India by cutting them off one of their key sources of oil.
Ironically, the massive USS Gerald Ford carrier that led the Venezuelan blockade is now in the Persian Gulf after a brief hiatus for repairs and crew rest after a deadly fire. And now it joins the USS Abraham Lincoln and other major naval assets.
In short, Trump simply could out-blockade Iran’s hold over the Strait of Hormuz, experts said.
On Sunday, the president confirmed that he is proceeding with a blockade.
“It would be very easy for the US Navy to exert complete control over what does and does not go up and down the Strait now,” the Lexington Institute’s national security expert Rebecca Grant told Just the News.
“I’ve heard about 10 ships have moved in the last 24 hours. One of them was a reflagged Russian tanker, and we know that cargos have gone out to China, to India, and we’ve seen some inbound traffic.
“If Iran gets intransigent, then absolutely, the US Navy can set up with great overwater surveillance … and watch everything that goes in and out of that Strait and you’ll have to ask the US Navy if you want to move past Kharg Island or past that narrow part by Oman,” she added.
Iran’s semi-official media cited “excessive” US demands, while the foreign ministry said it was natural that differences wouldn’t be resolved in a single round of talks, leaving the door open for more discussions.
A month ago we wondered…
If Iran is blocking and attacking US ships, why is the US allowing sanctioned Iranian tankers to cross the strait with Chinese oil?
The question is – how will the UAE oil chief deal with a US closure versus an Iranian closure?
China will certainly be pissed off as their tankers were flowing relatively freely until now.
Is the US endgame to take control of another chokepoint too…
Attempted Boarding of Commercial Ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a “sailing vessel” was approached by a small boat carrying 10 to 12 people, several of them heavily armed with automatic weapons, in what appeared to be an attempted boarding.
“The Master deployed a flare and the skiff turned away and departed to the southeast,” UKMTO wrote in an advisory posted on X about the maritime incident near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical chokepoint that Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have threatened to close in recent weeks.
2 Supertankers U-Turn In Strait After Peace Talks End Without A Deal
The marathon peace talks this weekend in Islamabad between Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Vice President JD Vance, and other officials ended without a deal. Still, the top Iranian negotiator signaled that the door remains open for future talks. Polymarket odds of a peace deal being signed this month collapsed late Saturday.
Ahead of the weekend peace talks, three fully loaded supertankers carrying Iraqi and Saudi crude safely transited the Strait of Hormuz. But after U.S.-Iran negotiations ended without a deal late Saturday, two separate empty supertankers abruptly turned around at the mouth of the chokepoint rather than enter the Persian Gulf.
The exact reason for the U-turns of the two supertankers remains unclear, especially since Iraq and Pakistan had reportedly received Iranian transit approvals. However, the reversals clearly coincide with the breakdown in negotiations, highlighting just how quickly conditions on the strait can change.
UAE Oil Chief Warns “Illegal, Dangerous, & Unacceptable” For Iran To Close Strait
On Sunday morning, as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained muted, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC’s managing director and group CEO and one of the most influential people in global energy markets, wrote on X: “The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict.”
Al Jaber continued, “Any attempt to do so is not a regional issue; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation.”
“Setting such a precedent is illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable. The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it,” he concluded in the X post.
Since February 28:
* At least 22 ships have been attacked
* 10 crew members have been killed
* Around 20,000 seafarers are unable to transit safely
* An estimated 800 commercial vessels are stranded, including almost 400 tankers
On Saturday, the U.S. Department of War confirmed that two U.S. warships transited the waterway to begin marine mine-clearing operations. Only a handful of ships have transited the strait this weekend.
Polymarket odds for vessel traffic returning to “normal” by the end of April plunged this weekend from 30% to 17%.
Disruptions at Gulf energy facilities and the continued paralysis across the Hormuz chokepoint led us early in the U.S.-Iran conflict to conclude that global energy flows were being rewired, whether temporarily or over the medium term, with energy exporters in the Gulf of America emerging as a potential net beneficiary.
In fact, the latest vessel-tracking data transmitted via the Automatic Identification System, supplied by Bloomberg, show that it is quite possible that America has become the world’s emergency gas station.
What appears increasingly clear after this weekend’s Islamabad talks is that Tehran refused to surrender any leverage around the Hormuz chokepoint. That posture only suggests to us that Tehran understands the chokepoint remains one of the last leverage points.
