Shares of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store have yet to fully recover from outgoing CEO Julie Masino’s brief “woke” rebranding effort last year. The family-dining chain quickly restored its iconic “Old Country Store” logo and nostalgic aesthetic. Still, the failed overhaul now appears to have cost Masino her job after exposing a serious failure of brand stewardship.
The Cracker Barrel controversy began on Aug. 18, 2025, when the company published a simplified logo that removed the “Old Timer” and barrel, sparking an immediate online backlash that intensified over the following week.
President Trump called for the oldlogo’ss restoration on Aug. 26, and Cracker Barrel reversed the redesign later that day.
Shares plunged by more than half in the months following the disastrous rebranding attempt and remain about 14% below where they traded before the controversy started.
Bloomberg reports that restaurant industry veteran David Deno will replace Masino.
Deno, who led Outback Steakhouse parent companyBloomin’’ Brands from 2019 to 2024, will take over on Aug. 10. Masino, CEO since late 2023, will remain as an adviser until early October.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Michael Halen and Amir Islam said Deno inherits favorable comparisons against last year’s logo-driven sales drop, though his long-term success will depend on rebuilding traffic and recruiting experienced executives.
Rebuilding customer traffic starts with Deno understanding the brand’s core audience and recognizing where America’s Overton window now sits. It has shifted away from the left and far-left fringes toward the political center, as “woke” branding has largely vanished despite efforts by revolutionary socialist activists to revive it.
“The Fauci diary is amazing. He monologues like a Scooby Doo villain.”
– El Gato Malo on “X”
Remember Covid-19? Seems like long ago in a world that time forgot. Well, you get to revisit the whole sketchy business on Wednesday, July, 29, when Dr. Anthony Fauci is called to testify about it to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee chaired by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).
Though half the USA is still psychotic and unable to process reality, the other half of the country understands that Dr. Fauci has some ‘splainin’ to do.
Dr. Fauci was initially invited but declined to appear (didn’t feel like it), so the committee issued a subpoena compelling him (under penalty of up to a year in jail for failure to show).
Because Dr. Fauci was given a peremptory pardon by “Joe Biden,” he cannot legally invoke the Fifth Amendment against self-incrimination.
He will have to answer the questions.
Of course, Dr. Fauci has demonstrated in previous appearances that he is a world champeen of failing-to-recall stuff and, at age 85, one might expect him to work that angle to the max.
One big question hanging over the whole proceeding is whether Covid-19 was concocted in the Wuhan Institute of Virology or “jumped from animals to humans” as Dr. Fauci posited around the 2:14 mark (near the end) of this video from a White House press conference, April, 13, 2020:
The Intel Community now kind of leans toward the lab leak theory.
Anyway, that all leads to another question as to whether Dr. Fauci directed his agency, the NIAID, to arrange funding for gain-of-function research at Wuhan on coronaviruses found in Asian bats.
In other words… did they make the chimeric virus on-purpose?
In past testimony, Dr. Fauci has equivocated and dissembled about that, played word games that led to raised voices between himself and Sen. Paul.
As it happened, then-Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard recently unearthed the paper trail of emails and memoranda between Dr. Fauci and his colleagues / partners in other corners of the epidemiological world that show how, at the time, they were all scrambling to cover their collective asses in the Covid-19 business.
One partner in particular, Peter Daszak of the New York based EcoHealth Alliance, which had channeled many grants to Wuhan since 2014, was especially active in fabricating alibis and ruses — including a major paper in the UK’s leading medical journal, The Lancet (the article was later nullified).
Behind that smokescreen of confabulation lies the wreckage of American society by the evil Covid-19 business.
It was even evident at the time (spring 2020) that President Trump suspected he was being played by the committee of “experts” that had been set up to make Covid-19 policy. His body language suggested as much in news conferences where he shifted uncomfortably from side to side, watching while others spoke at the podium, as if rehearsing his later YMCA dance.
At one point, April 23, 2020, (Fauci wrote in an email) President Trump called advisor Deborah Birx (“Scarf Lady”) into the Oval Office and yelled at her:
“You and Fauci have destroyed the country and the economy. I should never have listened to you. You have completely destroyed us.”
(Thanks to @JeffreyTucker on “X” for citation.)
And that was only the beginning of an event that led to a more momentous string of operations against the welfare of the American people, including the mass shutdown and ruin of small businesses, the orchestrated George Floyd riots, the year-plus of no school, and the mass mail-in ballot policy that enabled widespread voting fraud, ushering-in the election of Deep State tool “Joe Biden,” with the epic fuckery his handlers later laid on the body politic — including the open border, universal DEI, transsexuals celebrated on the White House lawn, the Ukraine money-laundry, weaponization of law and intel, build-out of the USAID-NGO grift matrix to fund Democratic Party operations, and much more.
Note, too, the concurrent disgrace of the medical establishment that went along with Covid policy. The doctors of America ganged up against the patients of America and broke the Hippocratic oath that says first, do no harm. The doctors went along with the fake mRNA vaccines long after it was evident that the shots didn’t work to prevent the disease and, in fact, induced widespread serious injuries, often fatal. The doctors, who followed the jive treatment protocol of ventilators along with remdesivir, the drug that destroyed patients’ kidneys in a matter of days and killed them. The doctors, whose hospitals collected as much as $35,000 per patient documented as dying from Covid (which was often a lie). The doctors who played dumb about the efficacy of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. The doctors who still won’t admit that the vaccines are producing increased rates of cancer deaths and immune system failure. Sane Americans today now regard their primary care doctors as no better than 18th century quacks operating out of barbershops. Nice going, docs!
(Apart from the colossal racketeering operation that you have enabled medicine to become.)
One abiding mystery in the bigger picture is why Donald Trump never really addressed the evil trip that was laid on him about Covid-19 by Fauci and many others. . . why he has not denounced the whole wicked business. . . why he has not already allowed HHS-Sec’y Robert Kennedy, Jr., to withdraw the Covid vaccine from approval. . . why one David Morens, a Fauci “advisor” is so far the sole official indicted for attempting to cover-up the funding chain for bat coronavirus research?
Perhaps after Dr. Fauci does his ‘splainin’ this Wednesday, President Trump will feel free to come clean about what happened in March and April of 2020 and do some ‘splainin’ of his own.
If he does, prepare for possible widespread head explosions.
BMO Says Return Of Mexican Cattle Is “Clear Positive” For Two Beaten-Down Meatpackers
Following the USDA’s announcement that it will begin lifting the year-long ban on Mexican live cattle imports on Aug. 24, BMO Capital Markets senior equity research analyst Andrew Strelzik called the decision a “key positive” for publicly traded meatpackers Tyson Foods and JBS.
The restrictions were imposed to combat the New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite that threatens livestock. Restoring Mexican cattle flows should gradually ease tight U.S. supplies, improve slaughterhouse utilization, and support beef-processing margins.
“A combination of recent beef plant closures and the recovery of Mexican cattle imports should create a path to U.S. beef packer margin improvement,” Strelzik wrote in a Monday morning note, identifying a potential new tailwind for Tyson Foods and JBS.
Strelzik outlined more color:
Combination of recent beef plant closures and recovery of Mexico cattle imports should create a path to U.S. beef packer margin improvement.
Specifically, TSN’s/ JBS’s previously announced beef plant closures remove ~6% of industry slaughter capacity, while a full Mexico border re-opening would add an incremental ~5% of cattle supply. The 10%-11% improvement in cattle supply/slaughter-capacity balance would raise industry plant utilization closer to normal historical levels, though Mexican imports will take time to flow through the supply chain to slaughter, especially given the USDA’s phased reopening strategy.
Notably, we estimate Douglas, AZ typically accounts for ~15% of Mexican cattle imports to the U.S. (note the closest active screwworm case is over 300 miles from the port).
There are uncertainties that will impact the pace and magnitude of beef margin recovery, including the rate at which cattle imports ramp and the type of cattle imported (e.g., fat cattle, feeder cattle). That said, the pace of imported Mexican cattle could materially accelerate with the reopening of New Mexico port of entries. In fact, we estimate the two New Mexico ports of entry combined account for just over half of all cattle imports from Mexico to the U.S. While timing is unconfirmed and hurdles will need to be cleared, we would not be surprised if New Mexico ports of entry were to re-open by early fall if the Arizona reopening is successful. Re-opening can be paused if the USDA identifies increased risk via post-opening audits or other observations/ information.
Border re-opening is a clear positive for Outperform-rated TSN and JBS, as meaningful inflection in U.S. beef margins could finally be on the horizon. Every $100mm change in TSN’s beef performance has an ~$0.20 EPS impact (~5% of our FY27 EPS estimate), while every $100mm change in JBS’s beef EBITDA is equivalent to ~2% of our 2027 EBITDA estimate. While heifer retention has been slow, the combination of plant closures and Mexico re-opening can create a bridge to underlying herd rebuilding. We note that heifers as a percent of slaughter decreased to 36% in June (from 40% previously), falling below the historical average.
Shares of both meatpackers have been pressured in recent months as New World screwworm detections in Texas and elsewhere have intensified concerns about already tight cattle supplies.
Mexican cattle represented about two-thirds of U.S. live cattle imports between 2020 and 2024, but most are lightweight feeder animals that require additional feeding before slaughter. The Aug. 24 reopening will begin at only one Arizona border crossing, meaning additional supply will enter gradually.
The immediate benefit should be lower cattle procurement pressure and improved margins for the meatpackers.
Yet beef prices are likely to stay elevated rather than enter a bear market. The U.S. herd remains near multidecade lows, and Bank of America’s recent interview with a cattle expert suggested that elevated retail prices could persist for several years. Read the report.
We suspect the Trump administration’s decision to restore live cattle imports from Mexico is part of a broader effort to ease food inflation and improve affordability ahead of the midterm elections.
BofA Downplays China’s DUV Tool Production Report, Sees Only “Modest Threat” To ASML
ASML Holding NV shares in Amsterdam suffered their steepest decline in more than a year, breaking below the crucial 50-day moving average after The Information reported that a Chinese state-backed company had begun producing immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines.
The Information did not cite the Shanghai-based company that plans to manufacture about five DUV machines this year and roughly 20 in 2027. The firm reportedly assembled teams from other Chinese chip-equipment firms, including Shanghai Yuliangsheng Technology.
ASML builds lithography machines that print transistor patterns onto silicon wafers. Its DUV machines are considered the workhorses of the semiconductor industry, producing highly advanced chips ranging from DRAM and NAND memory to logic and AI chips, as well as smartphone and automotive processors.
Only three weeks ago, we reported that China’s leading memory-chip companies are quickly closing the technology gap with their South Korean chip-producing rivals faster than expected, raising concerns that expanding Chinese production could eventually spark a global memory glut.
China’s largest memory company, CXMT, is reportedly testing a pilot line for bonded DRAM in Hefei (the heart of China’s semiconductor industry), a technology that manufactures memory cells and peripheral circuitry on separate wafers before joining them. This process could deliver higher density and performance using older deep-ultraviolet lithography equipment, allowing China to reduce its dependence on advanced EUV machines restricted by US export controls.
The company is also developing HBM3 and HBM3E products, pursuing next-generation CXL memory, and preparing for a potential Shanghai listing. Its reported share of the global DRAM market reached 8% during the first quarter of 2026, and Apple is said to be considering CXMT as a supplier.
The US has been probing ASML for many months out of concern that one of its lithography machines ended up in Chinese hands despite US-led export controls.
Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama commented on The Information’s report, telling clients:
According to The Information, China may have started production of DUV immersion litho tools. The article suggests that China have brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese companies but warns that DUV advances are still “at an early stage”. Yuliansheng Tech allegedly intends to produce 5 DUV tools this year and 20 next year for domestic Chinese customers, including SMIC, CXMT and Hua Hong. Of note, the article indicates that the immersion tools may be using components from both China and Japan, potentially violating export control restrictions.
Scemama continued:
China is a major market for ASML but threat likely modest
The leading domestic player, SMEE, has yet to demonstrate ArFi systems in high-volume production at 28nm or below, while reports of a Chinese EUV breakthrough have not resulted in a commercial product. China remains an important market for ASML, accounting for roughly 20% of group sales and 44% of DUV revenue in 2026. Replacing ASML would require a domestic alternative with comparable productivity, overlay and cost of ownership. That remains a high hurdle. ASML’s NXT:1980Fi already delivers 330 wafers per hour and 2.5nm machine-matched overlay, while successive generations have further improved overlay performance. In leading-edge Chinese logic manufacturing, where EUV is unavailable and multiple patterning is required, even modest reductions in scanner performance could materially lower yields and increase cost per die.
. . .
We think today’s weakness is an over-reaction and see current levels as an attractive opportunity.
Domestic DUV machines could eventually increase DRAM and NAND production in China, strengthening suppliers such as CXMT and YMTC while helping alleviate the global memory crunch. The report also suggests that ASML’s long-term competitive position could face growing pressure, while the leverage exerted by US and Western export controls over China’s access to advanced chips and chipmaking equipment could erode.
US Treasury Sells $139BN In Two Polar Opposite Auctions: A Stellar 2Y And A Dismal 5Y
Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision (where according to SOFR futures, the odds of a rate hike are a significant 38%, even as most traders expect no action by the Fed), we had the week’s first two coupon auctions take place according to an abbreviated schedule, with the sale of $69BN in 2Y notes taking place at 11:30am, followed by $70BN in 5Y notes. And while the former was unexpectedly strong, the latter was one of the ugliest 5Y auctions in years.
Here are the details.
The 2Y auction priced at a high yield of 4.315%, up from 4.189%, and the highest since December 2024. More importantly, it stopped through the 4.320% When Issued by 0.5bps, the third stop through in a row, and the highest since January.
The bid to cover was solid, at 2.662, it was also the highest since January.
The internals were likewise solid, with Indirects taking down 56.6%, up from 55.5%, if below the recent average of 58.2%. And with Directs awarded 34.1%, roughly flat with 34.3% last month, Dealers were left with just 9.4% of the auction, the lowest since January.
But if the 2Y auction was strong – and thus an indication that at least the primary bond buyers don’t expect any imminent rate hikes – the 5Y auction was a dismal mirror image.
The bond priced at a high yield of 4.408%, a big jump from 4.20% in June and the highest since December ’24. It also tailed the When Issued 4.399% by 0.9bps, which made it an unprecedented 14th tailing auction in a row, and the biggest tail since March.
The bid to cover was worse: it dropped to 2.282, the lowest in almost 5 years, since Sept 22.
The internals were just as ugly, with foreign demand sliding to just 59.24%, the lowest Indirects award since July 2025. And with Directs awarded 27.22%, the most since January, Dealers were left holding 13.5%, the highest since March.
In short, today’s two auctions – which took place within 90 minutes of each other – couldn’t be more different. The impressive 2Y showed remarkable buyside demand, while the dismal 5Y auction, separated by just 3 years in maturity, was one of the ugliest auctions for the tenor in years. Whether it is because someone expects inflation to spike aggressively 3-5 years from today (but not in under 2 years), or just jitters ahead of the Fed, remains to be seen, and when we get next week’s 3Y auction, we will have a much better sense of what drove the striking divergence in today’s two auctions.
Journalist Alex Newman is an expert on the so-called Deep State. He is the author of the longtime popular book “Deep State” and, most recently, “Deep State 2.0.”
The Deep State is not a conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy fact.
This year, the Deep State will be going to war with the Trump Administration to hold onto the voter fraud that has won them elections for many years. Without voter fraud, Deep State Democrats lose and lose big in the midterms. They are fighting every way they can to keep the cheating going.
The Trump Administration is threatening fines and jail time if the Dems in Blue States “Refuse to Cooperate to Secure Elections.” It is so bad that Harvard PhD and political expert Dr. Jerome Corsi says President Trump must “Stop Voter Fraud or Lose the Republic.” The fight is going to get much more intense and violent before the midterm elections in November.
Alex Newman says:
“Voter integrity is one of the arenas where this fight to the death is taking place.
We are going to determine in the not-so-distant future if the Deep State and those who hate America and our Constitutional Republic are going to control the most powerful military and most powerful economy in the world, or are ‘We the People’ going to exert control over the government we created to protect our liberties?
It will be a fight to the death.
There is no option these two can end up with control of the government. We have a long fight ahead.”
This is no small thing as the very existence of America hangs in the balance in November. Newman says, “I don’t think the Left, the Deep Staters or totalitarians are going to roll over and play dead here…”
“They realize everything is at stake, and if they get caught, a lot of them are going to end up in jail…
We are talking about treason, and that is a key point to understand. This is not just a little crime, a misdemeanor or steering government contracts to your brother-in-law. This is an effort to subvert our form of government...
President Trump made it very clear that this is not just a domestic subversive movement. He made clear there are international forces involved such as communist China very directly . . . as one of the players to rig our elections…
President Trump spoke about how Deep State swamp creatures within the intelligence agencies and law enforcement deliberately suppressed the information they had about communist China trying to manipulate and steal our elections. What we are talking about, to be very clear, is treason. It’s an effort to seize control or perpetuate control over the most powerful country on the face of the earth.”
If the Deep State loses total control, Newman says you can expect the very worst. Newman explains,
“I believe there is a very good chance that this goes nuclear.
That might be the Iranians trying to launch a nuke . . . or the Russians trying to use a nuke, or it could be the communist Chinese using a nuke.
I think that is a very real possibility, especially if it looks like the whole thing is going to unravel and Americans are going to regain control of their country.”
The Deep State has tentacles all over the world, including the International Criminal Court, the UN and politicians installed in governments of many of our so-called allies.
In closing, Newman says, “I think we all need to be involved, and we all need to be praying for the President…”
” In fact, the Bible commands us to pray for those in authority whether you like them or not. We need to recognize this is much bigger than a personality and much bigger than a party. Please recognize that right now, President Trump, his Administration and the Hand of God are the only things standing between the people of the United States with our liberties and constitutional form of government and a global totalitarian political, economic and religious system that they have been telling us about openly for decades. . .. We better hope Trump succeeds and do everything in our power to help him succeed.
One of the key milestones is making sure we have a secure 2026 Election. . .. We are playing for all the marbles. That is a very good way to put it. If Donald Trump is not successful, I don’t know if we are going to have another opportunity to stop this . . .. controlled demolition of America.”
There is much more in the jam-packed 43-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman to talk about the stunning new Deep State revelations found in his new book called “Deep State 2.0” and the fight to the death coming for voter integrity coming this November for 7.25.26.
BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, has chimed in on the crypto-quantum debate – and is surprisingly optimistic.
The firm, which manages over $15 trillion in assets, said in its new report, Quantum Computing and Blockchains, that upgrading existing cryptography to quantum-resistant standards is a far easier task than actually building a functional quantum computer capable of breaking that cryptography.
“In our view, PQ migration for cryptocurrencies is eminently addressable from a technical standpoint, and the key challenge is one of timely coordination and implementation,” the report read.
The crypto community has sounded the alarm about hypothetical advancements in quantum computers that could in the future be able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography. Some in the space — including Bitcoin developers — have started preparing for a post-quantum future by testing quantum-resistant signatures on live sidechains.
Quantum computers do exist but make mistakes and a machine that can break Bitcoin’s cryptography currently does not exist.
Bitcoin currently is the biggest computer network in existence.
BlackRock has skin in the game after having debuted in 2024 spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds. BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund had the most successful launch in the history of the ETF industry.
BlackRock boss Larry Fink has also talked of Bitcoin being “digital gold” and an “international asset” and has spoken about how crypto networks can help tokenize everything.
JUST IN: Michael Saylor announces Strategy, BlackRock, Fidelity and Coinbase are pledging $15 million to support open source Bitcoin development “for the decades ahead.” 🚀 pic.twitter.com/W5q60ph9n3
The report said that while solutions exist for protecting Bitcoin against quantum computers — it is technically simple to upgrade — coordination is hard given the cryptocurrency’s decentralized, consensus-driven development.
BlackRock noted that about 35% of circulating Bitcoin’s supply is potentially vulnerable to certain attack types due to exposed public keys, and 11-19% may be permanently lost regardless of migration.
Along with crypto bigwigs like Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Block, BlackRock on Thursday announced a new Bitcoin Security Consortium aimed at donating funds to engineers to help their open-source work supporting proposals like BIP-360.
The asset manager added in the report that while BIP-360 is a credible, well-designed piece of a larger puzzle, it stopped short of calling it the solution. Still, it added that Bitcoin and other crypto networks had the advantage.
“That said, it is a much less daunting task to upgrade current cryptographic systems (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others) to a quantum-secure standard than it is to build a CRQC from where quantum computing progress stands today,” the report noted.
“Thus, advantage remains decidedly with the defense, at the current juncture.”
Trump Cites ‘Deep Talks’ – Warns of Expanded Action; Houthis Claim Responsibility for New Aramco Attacks
President Trump has told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause American military attacks on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, despite there currently being no evidence that Tehran has been urgently requesting them. Trump warned in the comments that war could immediately return with expanded strikes if diplomacy fails.
But it seems there’s at least some indirect ‘note passing’ between capitals going on, even as Saudi Aramco facilities have apparently come under drone assault from Iran-aligned militants in Yemen and Iraq. Axios writes that “The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are actively involved.”
“We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don’t work out, we will go back to very strong military action,” Trump said in an interview. Again, very deep talks?… The Iranian side is certainly not confirming this, but instead quite the opposite. Tehran has definitively stated its position that there are no talks currently happening. It seems it is merely the mediating powers that are most urgently trying to get the sides back to the negotiating table. Trump said he won’t give diplomacy “much time” and that it “either goes fast or not at all.”
“All of the people that deal with Iran asked me: ‘Don’t fire,'” he also said, perhaps alluding to reports like the following:
The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East recommended ending the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz after concluding it reached the limits of its effectiveness, a recommendation that helped shape President Donald Trump’s decision to pause strikes against Iran, Axios reported Sunday.
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, advised Pentagon leaders, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the White House last week that two weeks of sustained airstrikes had weakened Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the strategic waterway, multiple sources familiar with the discussions said.
As for new reported strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities (below), and particularly the sprawling Abqaiq site, the Houthis are claiming responsibility.
The last time Abqaiq (in 2019) was attacked by drones, Brent prices rose 20%.
Previously Trump vowed to hold Iran directly responsible for any attacks carried out by its proxy groups.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY: Significant amount of **flaring** in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, including the processing facility of Abqaiq and linked facilities of the Ghawar giant oilfield.
(**Flaring doesn’t mean damage. More photos below speculating about potential damage**) pic.twitter.com/5U1e9IaJkS
Saturday saw a final break in what was 13 consecutive days of tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran, with US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz having confirmed to Fox News Sunday that President Trump is trying to give peace talks “some space”.
“He’s giving it a little bit of room,” Waltz said. “We’ve had both Oman and Iran and a number of our other negotiators engaged at every level, from the most senior levels all the way down to the technical level, over the past few weeks and particularly in the past few days.”
Walsh has brushed aside emerging reports that US defense interceptor supplies are running low, “I want to be crystal clear: The U.S. military, and I’ve verified this every which way, has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be,” he said.
But a who’s who of top admin and military officials have voiced concerns, including the following:
The New York Times reported Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has privately argued resuming major combat operations against Iran would seriously deplete the antimissile interceptors available to U.S. Central Command (Centcom). The outlet reported the threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations risky.
Vice President Vance raised concerns about escalating the war in a meeting with the president at the White House on Friday, CNN reported.
Two sources with knowledge of Adm. Brad Cooper’s position told Axios that the Centcom commander has recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness.
An Iranian military official warned Sunday that the country would expand its ‘retaliatory’ attacks in the region if the US restarts airstrikes. This as a pause has held for two days.
Iran Warns it will Expand Strikes of US Bombing Resumes
“I believe that if the Americans once again fall for the Zionists’ deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through airstrikes, geographically this will expand further,” Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told AFP. Iran is also boasting that it still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and that Washington is “stuck” in the region – and that only Tehran decides when the conflict ends.
Tehran has at the same time once again confirmed there are no negotiations happening. “It’s possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments in the region, but at the moment we have no negotiations with the US,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday.
The ARAMCO refinery in Jizan, eastern Saudi Arabia, is still burning more than 2 days after the impact of ballistic missiles launched by the Houtis.
A massive trail of smoke which extends for about 70 km can be seen on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 26/07/2026. pic.twitter.com/v05cwhMRjY
He also batted down claims that Iran has requested negotiations – after Trump recently asserted it was begging for talks – as “fake news”. Baghaei further explained that Iran won’t hesitate to use diplomacy to protect national interests, as cited in Bloomberg. He also described that Iranian and Omani officials held several rounds of “useful” talks about the management of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
US strikes and Iranian counterattacks could restart at any moment, given that the US continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports.
Still, an unnamed Iranian official separately told Reutersthat Tehran’s position “remains ‘attack for attack’: if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States.”
Reports of KSA’s Abqaiq Oil Facility Hit
Meanwhile there are emerging Monday reports that Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in the kingdom’s eastern province is on fire after probable drone and/or missile strikes by the Houthis, or from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.
Newsquawk reports based on emerging Iranian state media that “Hours ago, the huge Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s most important oil processing centers, was set on fire in drone and missile attacks, reports Tasnim citing sources and images.” Below are the distant images posted by Tasnim on Telegram:
Some various OSINT accounts are also seeking to verify the fires. If confirmed this would be a very serious development, which potential significant impact on the kingdom’s crude output. An official response is emerging from Saudi media, as Arab sources report explosions in the kingdom:
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence said it intercepted drones from Iraqi territory that attempted to target oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions, Al Hadath reports
Massive 300 mw fire at Abqaiq refinery and east west pumping station. Unclear what the cause is. This saudi oil facility is on fire.
25.92676, 49.68748 is not at a flaring location pic.twitter.com/0iFh1zhEc0
International reports commonly estimate that the sprawling Abqaiq facility – as the largest crude oil stabilization and processing facility in the world – has a maximum processing capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd) and typically operates at around 4.9 million bpd.
Houthi media has also been highlighting the fires at the site on Monday, following prior alleged Houthi attacks on key Aramco sites in Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend. The group’s military spokesperson Yahya Sare identified that these sites were hit, with international press agencies citing, “There is no immediate Saudi confirmation, though footage shows plumes of black smoke rising into the air from the Aramco refinery in Jizan.”
‘I Almost Cried’ – Documentary Video Trove Shows Lindsey Graham’s Joy At Start Of Iran War
Batches of previously unreleased documentary footage give a behind-the-scenes look at the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s work to maneuver the United States into military conflicts on behalf of Israel, and the sheer joy he exuded when President Trump finally brought Graham’s long-held dreams of an all-out war on Iran to fruition.
The video comes from British documentary filmmaker Alex Holder, whom Graham had granted close, ongoing access from 2023 up until Graham’s sudden death on July 11. Holder plans to release a documentary called “Lindsey’s Game” later this year, but he’s just released several samples from his hundreds of hours of footage. They fully cement Graham’s reputation as a man who constantly pushed for war and found unparalleled joy in bringing destruction to foreign peoples.
That latter dimension of Graham’s twisted personality can be vividly seen and heard in footage of Graham in his Senate office in late February. He and is staff are watching Trump, on Fox News, bragging that “virtually everything [the Iranians] have has been knocked out.”
WATCH: Unreleased documentary footage shows Lindsey Graham extremely happy that Trump finally bombed Iran.
“Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried… How long have we been pushing this?” Graham says after U.S. strikes begin.
Positively exuberant that massive US-Israeli attacks on Iran had just begun, Graham laughs aloud with joy, then gushes to the documentary crew and his own staffers, “Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried. I mean, like, how long have we been pushing this?” Holder replies, “you’ve been pushing this for years.” Graham laughs again and — sounding just a child on Christmas morning — says with dewy-eyed disbelief, “Right…it’s here!”
Graham says Trump is enjoying the war too. “I talked to Trump this morning — he’s jacked. He said, ‘best thing I have ever done.’ He loves blowing stuff up.” We’d be remiss if we didn’t remind readers that one of the first things Trump and the US Navy had already blown up in Graham’s giddy early hours of the war was an elementary school in southern Iran. More than 150 civilians were killed at the Minab school, most of them girls between age 7 and 12.
In another remarkable scene, we get to sit in a March 4 Graham phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,with whom Graham had actively conspired to maneuver Trump into simultaneously blowing up Iran and blowing up Trump’s many promises to break the cycle of never-ending US wars in the Middle East. The call starts with Graham greeting “Bibi” and sycophantically saying how “impressed” he is with Netanyahu. In what sounds like a thinly-veiled boast for the benefit of the documentary’s eventual audience, Graham adds, “I’m glad to be your friend.”
That’s nauseatingly entertaining, but what makes their ensuing strategy discussion so remarkable is that the infamously bellicose Netanyahu emerges as the relative voice of restraint. Graham tells Netanyahu that he intends to visit Trump in Florida to convince him to join Israel in its war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, but Netanyahu diplomatically tells Graham to take it easy.
UNSEEN FOOTAGE of Lindsey Graham on CALL with Netanyahu revealing plans to LOBBY Trump to BOMB Lebanon
BIBI: Glad you’re my FRIEND
GRAHAM: Going to try to get Trump to join with y’all in Lebanon… WOULD YOU LIKE THAT?
“We’re concentrating right now on Iran,” Netanyahu replies. “If we tell Hezbollah that we’re going all the way… we threaten them, but if we actually do it, then they have no reason not to go all the way against us. And right now that’s not our interest.” Perhaps not wanting to fully spoil Graham’s dreams of American service members being thrown into another conflict for Israel’s benefit, Netanyahu offers, “We can do it later.”
Another clip nicely illustrates just how wrong Graham and other promoters of the war on Iran have been about what would be be rapidly accomplished. In early March, as he’s being driven across town, Graham tells documentarian Holder that, in “three or four weeks,” the United States and Israel would “have them in a spot where they start losing control of some cities” and, with more open Arab involvement in the war, achieve “almost irreversible momentum.”
Five months later, no cities have come even remotely close to falling. Instead, outraged over a war of aggression launched on their country on several bogus pretenses, support for the Iranian government has been galvanized. That’s been manifested in many ways, but none greater than what may have been the largest funeral in the history of the world, as millions turned out earlier this month for a multi-day state funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Continuing its long-running pattern of violating international norms that put heads of state off-limits — and furthering its corruption of what little remains of US government geopolitical morality — Israel collaborated with the United States to kill Khamenei, his daughter, son-in-law, and 14-month-old granddaughter in February’s opening assault.
In other footage reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Graham voices his disappointment that more Republican politicians aren’t stepping up to promote the war on Iran, which quickly became the most unpopular major war in US history — even less popular than what was observed in the worst polling on the Vietnam War. “Very few people are out selling this war from the administration. I’m shocked,” Graham says.
The last footage recorded by the documentary crew — at a Columbia, SC bagel shop in June — shows a Graham who’s frustrated that Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding that was supposed to be a precursor to a lasting peace. “He’s letting this thing slip away,” Graham said. “I got to go talk to him.”
Key Events This Busy Week: FOMC, PCE, GDP, War On/War Off… And Earnings Galore
Before we look at the week ahead, a quick look at the main event that defines the market this Monday morning: after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping, Washington has refrained from further attacks since late Friday, while Tehran has publicly stated that it has also suspended retaliatory operations. The pause falls short of a formal ceasefire, but both sides are presenting it as an opportunity for diplomacy, with Omani-mediated talks continuing over the weekend focused on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials, including UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, have stressed that all military options remain on the table and that President Trump is simply giving negotiations more space. However, reports from the New York Times and Axios suggest an active debate within the administration over both the effectiveness and costs of further strikes, with some military officials reportedly arguing that key objectives have largely been achieved. For now, the market is treating the lull as a positive development, although the situation remains highly fluid.
The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure around Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, prompting retaliatory Saudi strikes. This raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So a welcome pause from the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles still ongoing.
However there is no doubt the weekend news is positive and this morning Brent crude prices are around -4.5% lower to $92.42 and 10yr USTs are down -4.5bps. S&P 500 futures are up +0.71% with Nasdaq futures gaining +1.17%.
With that in mind, let’s now look ahead, and as more and more of the financial world steps off the ever-turning carousel of market news and disappears towards sunnier shores, a busy global week lies ahead, with central bank decisions, major economic releases and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday remains the standout event, but investors will also hear from the Bank of England (Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (Friday). Meanwhile, key economic releases include US Q2 GDP and June core PCE inflation (both Thursday), Euro Area Q2 GDP and July inflation data (Thursday/Friday), Japan’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) and China’s official PMIs (Friday). Adding to the significance of the week, four of the world’s most influential companies — Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, which together account for 17% of the S&P 500—will report earnings, with the first two on Wednesday and the latter two a day later.
The headline event of course comes with the FOMC meeting (Wednesday), where DB economists continue to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. However, the decision appears unusually finely balanced. The renewed escalation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices have complicated the inflation outlook, while recent market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved higher as concerns around energy supply disruptions have intensified. Against that backdrop, policymakers face a difficult trade-off between evidence that inflation had been moderating and growing signs that higher oil prices could create a more persistent inflation shock.
It’s rare for a Fed meeting to be this finely balanced so close to the decision. Futures are still assigning a 34% probability to a rate hike this week (-4pps overnight in Asia), a level of uncertainty we seldom see at such a late stage. During the post-Covid hiking cycle, markets did receive a steer via the financial press during the blackout period if the Fed was considering a surprise move. Under the current regime, that appears far less likely.
The Fed decision will sit in the middle of several important data releases. Durable goods orders (today) and the advance goods trade balance (tomorrow) will help shape expectations for the first estimate of Q2 GDP (Thursday). Economists expect annualized GDP growth of 1.9% in Q2. Although this would mark a downgrade from earlier estimates, much of the weakness reflects a drag from net exports linked to strong AI-related imports. Beneath the surface, domestic demand remains considerably healthier. Indeed, DB’s economists expect final sales to private domestic purchasers, their preferred measure of underlying demand, to rise by a robust 3.3%, which would be the strongest reading since Q3 2024.
Attention will then turn to inflation. The June personal income and spending report (Thursday) includes the latest reading of core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. DB economists expect core PCE to increase by 0.19% month-on-month, which would leave the annual rate at 3.3% assuming no significant revisions. That will be followed by the Employment Cost Index (Friday), one of the Fed’s preferred measures of labor cost pressures. Economists expect the annual growth rate to remain at 3.4%, a level many policymakers would still view as broadly consistent with returning inflation towards target over time.
Alongside the macro data, earnings season moves into a critical phase. Around 35% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is scheduled to report this week. Technology will dominate attention, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results (Wednesday), followed by Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Together, those companies account for 17% of the S&P 500 and will help determine whether investor enthusiasm around AI-related spending remains intact. Elsewhere, notable US earnings releases include Visa and Mastercard in financials, ExxonMobil and Chevron in energy, and Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in consumer staples.
In Europe, attention will be split between monetary policy and inflation. The Bank of England announces its latest policy decision (Thursday), and economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, accompanied by a 7-2 vote split.
On the data side, Germany and Spain release flash July CPI figures (Thursday), before France, Italy and the Euro Area publish their inflation readings (Friday). DB’s European economists expect Euro Area headline HICP inflation to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%, while core HICP is forecast to edge higher to 2.52% from 2.36%. The Euro Area’s preliminary Q2 GDP estimate is also due (Thursday), while Germany’s Ifo survey (today) should provide an updated read on business sentiment.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan decision (Friday) will be the key event. Here, economists expect policymakers to keep their current policy settings unchanged. Japan will also release Tokyo CPI, retail sales, industrial production, labor market data and housing starts (all Friday), offering a comprehensive snapshot of the economy at the start of the third quarter. In China, the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (Friday) will provide the latest evidence on growth momentum. Elsewhere, Australia’s June CPI report (Wednesday) will be closely watched for indications about the Reserve Bank’s policy path.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day preview of the week ahead.
Monday July 27
Data: US June durable goods orders, July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Japan June PPI services, China June industrial profits, Germany July Ifo survey, Eurozone June M3
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
Tuesday July 28
Data: US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, May FHFA house price index, France July consumer confidence, Q2 total jobseekers
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, KLA, Seagate Technology, Boeing, Rio Tinto, Safran, Unilever, Corning, Air Liquide, S&P Global, GSK, UPS, Barclays, EssilorLuxottica, Sherwin-Williams, Mondelez, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ecolab, Hilton, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Ford, Orange, Mercedes-Benz, Kering, Centene, Sika
Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
Wednesday July 29
Data: UK June net consumer credit, M4, Germany June import price index, Italy May industrial sales, Australia June CPI, Sweden Q2 GDP indicator
Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC summary of deliberations
Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, SK hynix, Lam Research, Procter & Gamble, ARM, L’Oreal, Hermes, Amphenol, Airbus, Qualcomm, UBS, Hitachi, Advantest, Intesa Sanpaolo, Starbucks, Vertiv, Fortinet, CaixaBank, Equinix, Vinci, Eni, Aon, Standard Chartered, Public Storage, Danone, BASF, Porsche, Humana, GE HealthCare Technologies, Telecom Italia
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn)
Thursday July 30
Data: US June PCE, personal income, spending, Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims, Japan July consumer confidence index, Germany Q2 GDP, July CPI, France Q2 GDP, private sector payrolls, June consumer spending, Italy Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone July economic, industrial, services confidence, Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate
Central banks: BoE’s decision
Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Samsung Electronics, Mastercard, Shell, Tokyo Electron, Schneider Electric, AB InBev, Rolls-Royce, BBVA, British American Tobacco, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Stryker, Enel, Sanofi, ING Groep, Lloyds Banking, KKR, BAE, Cigna, Monolithic Power Systems, Regeneron, CRH, Societe Generale, Ferrari, Vale, LSEG, Anglo American, adidas, Leonardo, Reddit, DSM-Firmenich, MTU Aero Engines, Capgemini, Stellantis
Friday July 31
Data: US Q2 employment cost index, July MNI Chicago PMI, China July official PMIs, UK July Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan July Tokyo CPI, June jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany July unemployment claims rate, France July CPI, June PPI, Italy July CPI, consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone July CPI, Canada May GDP
Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the advance release of Q2 GDP and core PCE inflation on Thursday. The July FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.
Monday, July 27
08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.8%, last -4.5%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%): We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 1% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in June—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
Tuesday, July 28
08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, June (GS -$95.0bn, consensus -$100.3bn, last -$105.9bn)
08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (last +0.1%)
09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (last -0.1%)
09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat)
10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 92.0, consensus 92.4, last 91.2)
Wednesday, July 29
02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its July meeting, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The post-meeting statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at least one dissent in favor of a hike. Market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain, likely because the FOMC has been split recently, Chairman Warsh’s own position remains unclear, and some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period. But most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike this week after the softer June inflation data, the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes, and we suspect that voters might be especially reluctant to do so at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections.
Thursday, July 30
08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q2 advance (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +0.5%); Core PCE inflation, Q2 advance (GS +3.46%, consensus +3.5%, last +4.4%); We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q2, following a +2.1% annualized increase in Q1. Our forecast reflects a rebound in consumption growth (+2.3%, quarter-over-quarter annualized, vs. +0.5% in Q1) and another quarter of strong business fixed investment growth (+8.8% vs. +10.6% in Q1) driven by strong equipment investment growth (+17.1%). We expect net exports to contribute -1.3pp to Q2 GDP growth. We estimate that domestic final sales rose +2.6% in Q2. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.46% annualized (or 3.35% year-over-year) in Q2.
08:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Personal spending, June (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.4%); PCE price index, June (GS -0.07%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.70%, consensus +3.7%, last +4.1%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, in June. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.18% in June, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.32%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index declined 0.07% in June and increased 3.70% from a year earlier.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 25 (GS 205k, consensus 200k, last 187k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 18 (consensus 1,803k, last 1,796k)
Friday, July 31
08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.2pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects slower ECI benefit growth after start-of-the-year benefit resets likely boosted growth in Q1 and a 0.8% quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings.
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.4); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July final (GS 3.3%, last 3.3%)
