Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, added to its cryptocurrency reserves last week as BTC continued to trade below the company’s average cost basis of about $75,700.
Strategy acquired 1,587 Bitcoin (BTC) for $100 million between June 8 and Sunday, according to Monday’s 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Source: SEC
The purchase was made at an average price of $63,024 per Bitcoin, bringing the company’s overall average cost basis slightly lower to $75,656.
With the latest buy, Strategy now holds 846,842 BTC, accumulated at a total cost of $64.07 billion.
At the current price of about $66,216 per bitcoin, those holdings are worth roughly $56.1 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
In the filing, the company said it raised about $209 million by selling 1.73 million MSTR shares during the period. Preferred share programs, including STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD, showed no activity during the week.
According to STRC.live, a tracker of Strategy’s preferred stock programs, STRC traded below its $100 par value for a fourth consecutive week as of June 12. The stock remained in the mid-$96 range, marking its longest stretch below par since launch.
STRC closed at $94.80 on Friday, down around 1%, according to TradingView data.
Strategy executive chairman Saylor hinted at the latest purchase in a post on X on Sunday, writing, “Still adding dots,” a phrase investors have come to associate with the company’s upcoming Bitcoin acquisitions.
The latest buy comes about two weeks after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC on June 1, its first reported Bitcoin sale in years. While the transaction represented only a tiny fraction of the company’s holdings, the sale ignited debate in the community, with some industry observers questioning whether the company was moving away from its long-standing buy-and-hold approach.
Saylor recently defended the sale, telling Cointelegraph that Bitcoin treasury companies must retain the ability to sell holdings to support dividend-paying securities.
There were a total of 40,355 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in May—down 5 percent month-over-month but up by 14 percent compared to the same period in 2025.
“The increase marks the continuation of a trend of rising foreclosure activity on an annual basis,” real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a June 11 statement.
In April, foreclosure filings were up 18 percent from a year back. And in the first quarter of 2026, filings were up 26 percent compared to Q1 of 2025.
“Lenders repossessed 4,092 U.S. properties through completed foreclosures (REOs) in May 2026, down 20 percent from the previous month but up 6 percent from a year ago,” ATTOM said.
Foreclosure is a legal process by which a mortgage lender repossesses a property due to borrower’s failure to make mortgage payments. The lender initially issues a notice of default when payments are missed for 90 days. If the borrower does not settle payments within 30 days, the property is repossessed and eventually sold to new buyers.
In May, one in every 3,562 U.S. housing units had a foreclosure filing, ATTOM reported. Florida had the highest foreclosure rate, with one in 2,110 units. This was followed by South Carolina, Maryland, Nevada, and Indiana.
Among metro areas with a population of at least 2 million, Cleveland, Ohio, had the highest foreclosure rate last month, with one in 1,524 housing properties. This was followed by Baltimore, Maryland; Tampa, Florida; Riverside, California; and Orlando, Florida.
As for states with the highest number of completed foreclosures, Texas ranked at the top with 519, followed by California, Florida, Illinois, and Michigan.
“Foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures both increased compared to last year, reflecting ongoing pressure on some homeowners as elevated mortgage rates, rising ownership costs, and affordability constraints persist,” CEO at ATTOM Rob Barber said.
“At the same time, foreclosure volumes remain well below historical norms, indicating that the housing market continues to show resilience despite these challenges.”
In a June 12 post, legal services company Nolo predicted foreclosure rates to gradually rise in the latter part of this year.
“Factors such as surging insurance premiums, elevated interest rates, climbing HOA fees, and reduced buyer demand are contributing to a growing housing crisis,” Nolo said. “Also, markets with high property taxes or economies that rely on volatile sectors (like Las Vegas, Nevada) are at risk of seeing an increase in foreclosures during tough economic times.”
The average weekly mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained above 6 percent for every single week since mid-September 2022, except for a brief dip in late February this year, according to data from Freddie Mac.
Meanwhile, the housing market slowed down in May after improving in April due to the increase in mortgage rates, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a June 3 statement.
The trend of rising foreclosures is likely to continue unless there is significant relief or intervention, Nolo said.
In February, a group of lawmakers reintroduced the Preserving Homes and Communities Act to protect homeowners from foreclosures, according to a Feb. 4 statement from the office of Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).
The bill seeks to ensure that local entities with public missions, such as municipalities, states, and nonprofits, have the “first opportunity” to buy nonperforming and reperforming mortgages from the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Typically, such loans are sold at a discount to institutional investors and private equity companies via note sale programs.
The bill also seeks to make sure that borrowers receive a notice of at least 90 days before their mortgages are placed in note sales.
“Housing costs are higher than ever before and we need to make it easier for working families to keep a roof over their heads. The national data clearly shows that the current note sales system is not working properly and is prioritizing the wants of investors over the needs of homeowners,” Reed said.
The bill “will implement key reforms to strengthen foreclosure protections and better protect homeowners and communities,” the senator said.
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
UBS analyst Peter Grom, who covers U.S. consumer staples including packaged food, beverages, and household products, served up a sour outlook for the salty-snack category, warning that the recovery investors had hoped for remains further out than expected.
“Despite recent optimism around a potential recovery in salty snacks, our analysis would suggest the category remains challenged. While tracked channel growth has turned positive relative to prior periods, we have observed momentum beginning to moderate with L13W $ takeaway growth decelerating to +1.2% vs. the +3.4% peak growth seen earlier in the year,” Grom began the note.
Grom pointed out that the salty-snack category remains under pressure from a confluence of headwinds, including rapid GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and mounting macroeconomic challenges faced by cash-strapped consumers.
“The combination of GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and broader consumer spending pressures tied to the current geopolitical conflict has weighed on snack demand,” the analyst said.
Grom noted that the Nielsen data show little evidence of a robust recovery, with buy rates, purchase frequency, spending per trip, units per trip, and overall projected sales all slowing. The category is also losing share to “better-for-you” options.
A Recovery Remains Uncertain
Snack trend down
He pointed out that competitive pressure has greatly intensified, adding that Pepsi remains the junk food king, with nearly half of category sales, but most large incumbents are generating flat-to-negative growth across tracked channels.
Pepsi’s Frito-Lay North America food unit has experienced negative sales growth for much of the past year and continues to lose share despite investments in pricing, promotions, merchandising, and shelf space.
Another pressure point has been declining sales at convenience stores. He said C-store salty-snack sales, historically a strong growth engine, fell 3.5% in the latest 13 weeks as higher pump prices weighed on traffic and impulse purchases. Another headwind at C-stores has been the decline in SNAP sales.
One takeaway from Grom’s note is that the confluence of pressures mentioned above has collided across the salty-snack aisle, derailing the recovery investors had hoped would take shape this year.
Trump Details Iran Deal At G7: No Nukes, Conditional Sanctions Relief
Summary:
Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under the new deal.
The agreement includes strong policing and enforcement powers.
Trump: Obama’s JCPOA was a horrible deal that led toward a bomb.
Past U.S. payments to Iran were a failed bribe attempt.
Sanctions relief will only happen if Iran complies with terms.
Iran gets no money or relief just for signing the deal.
A deal has been electronically signed by Iran’s Ghalibaf, according to US officials cited by CNBC
Opening the strait will take time due to mines, and to expect an increase in traffic in 1-2 weeks
Details to be released in 24-48 hours
Trump: Ships starting to move through strait or Hormuz
Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
Deal Done
CNBC is reporting that a deal between the US and Iran has been electronically signed by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to an unnamed US official, the US-Iran MOU provides for the ‘immediate’ reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however – while President Trump said earlier that ships were beginning to move, the US official then said that reopening the strait would ‘take time’ due to mines, and that we can expect an increase in strait traffic over the next 1-2 weeks.
Trump addressed reporters and allies at the G7 summit in France on Monday, just hours after a major interim agreement with Iran that includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he repeatedly underscored that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the central achievement of the deal.
“The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers.”
🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: “The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon!”
“They fully agreed to that with strong POLICING powers and they won’t have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about because they probably would have used it if they had it.”
He then compared it to the Obama-era JCPOA, calling the earlier agreement “a horrible deal for the United States” that had put Iran on “a road to a nuclear weapon” while sending billions of dollars to Tehran. Trump was also sharply critical of past U.S. cash payments to Iran, describing the $1.7 billion withdrawal from banks plus tens of billions in additional spending as a failed attempt to “bribe them to make a deal that didn’t work.”
🚨 BOOM! President Trump is now publicly OBLITERATING Barack Hussein Obama trying to “BRIBE” Iran with CASH to no success
“$1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran and on top of that tens of billions of dollars was spent. So they tried to bribe them to make a… pic.twitter.com/uzp1r070kg
On the current arrangement, Trump stressed that any sanctions relief would be strictly behavioral and tied to compliance rather than granted simply for signing. He noted improved relations with Iran’s current leadership and reported that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, with mines being cleared and commercial shipping set to resume fully by Friday. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks surging and oil prices posting their biggest drop in some time.
🚨 JUST IN: Overseas, President Trump says he’s GETTING ALONG WITH IRAN, the market is SURGING and oil prices are DROPPING
47 just made massive history!
“The Strait is already partially open, as you know they’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already… pic.twitter.com/UAHoCs1JBn
Trump also called for an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, saying the long-running conflict “should NOT be tough” to address and that “we have to have a little talk with them.” Less than 24 hours after the Iran developments, he revealed he had already spoken with both President Zelensky and President Putin, describing the conversations as “very good” and expressing optimism that progress could be made to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, where he noted roughly 25,000 people are dying each month.
🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump not even 24 HOURS after ending the Iran war just spoke with Putin and Zelensky to try and end the UKRAINE war
This man is going all-out for peace!
“Very good conversation yesterday with President Zelensky and President Putin. And I see maybe we can… pic.twitter.com/XDrhgQgyuT
Details of the MOU will be released over the next 24-48 hours, though one US official said that the MOU contains ‘possible’ $300 billion in reconstruction funding.
Ghalibaf notably came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with US Vice President DJ Vance – marking the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Trump
President Trump on Monday claimed on Truth Social that commercial ships loaded with oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz followinmg an announced deal to end hostilities with Iran.
“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote. “They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!”
Sunday evening Trump announced that the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to end the war which was started by the Trump adminisgration and Israel on Feb. 28.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had agreed to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) – according to state-run outelt IRNA.
VP Vance
Not even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.
Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market’s worst fear.
Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM “misreporting.”
“The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process,” Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday’s signing ceremony.
On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.
Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are “a lot” of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has “all the cards” in subsequent talks.
The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran’s nuclear program and other key issues.
The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning, said the deal’s two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.
He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal’s commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran “to be reinvited into the world economy.”
Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.
VIEWER ALERT: @VP Vance joins @CBSMornings 🌞 just after 8am ET to discuss the emerging U.S.-Iran deal.
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for “services” tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar’s sake, years.
“From the bridge and the engine room where we’re sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say,” said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, “We’ve seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds.”
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, “Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up.”
Singh noted, “But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding.”
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that “the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher.”
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
After nine straight up weeks, the bull market pullback we flagged finally arrived, and it stopped cold at the 50-day moving average.
The selloff reset an overbought tape without breaking trend. RSI fell from above 70 to the low 40s, and Thursday’s bounce came on broad participation.
Our Money Flow Breadth Ratio ticked up to 60%, back in buy territory, and we’re holding equity exposure at 100%.
The bigger risks haven’t gone anywhere: record margin debt, fading retail demand, and a 10-year Treasury that now out-yields the S&P 500.
This sets up more upside for now. It does not erase the odds of a deeper correction this summer if forward earnings expectations crack.
Two weeks ago, after the S&P 500 logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain, we discussed that a bull market pullback was coming. It came. From the May 27 record near 7,621, the index slid 4.5% and bottomed almost exactly on its 50-day moving average before ripping back to close Friday at 7,431.46. That is not the opening act of a bear market. That is the kind of bull market pullback that resets sentiment and, more often than not, clears the runway for the next leg higher. The harder question is what happens after the bounce.
The Correction We Told You To Expect
Make no mistake, I have been warning about the potential for a pullback over the last few weeks and repeatedly discussed taking profits and rebalancing risk. As I wrote in “Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next,” a market that climbs for 9 straight weeks gets stretched, and stretched markets tend to mean-revert. The only real questions were the “when” and “how much.” We suggested a bull-market pullback of 3% to 5%; toward the 50-day moving average, would be most likely. However, a larger correction is still possible. As noted, the actual decline ran 4.5% peak to trough and found its floor exactly where trend-followers add rather than abandon.
Notably, the dip buyers showed up on cue. When the S&P probed the mid-7,200s on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, the same crowd that has bought every dip since the April 2025 low stepped in again, and by Friday the index had clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior week’s 2.64% drubbing. That close at 7,431.46 leaves the larger uptrend fully intact, sitting about 2.5% below the high rather than careening away from it.
Crucially, the setup still favors the bulls, at least for now.
First, the damage was technical, not structural. The 14-day RSI ran above 70 at the late-May high and fell to the low 40s at this month’s lows before settling back near 53. In plain terms, the market burned off its overbought condition without violating the trend, which is textbook.
Second, the quality of the bounce mattered. Thursday’s 1.75% surge came on broad participation rather than three megacaps doing all the lifting, and broad thrusts off support tend to mark real lows instead of dead-cat bounces.
Third, our own money-flow work agrees. The Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) is a rules-based model that “systematically adjusts portfolio equity exposure in response to the direction and persistence of institutional capital flows.” We use this analysis to size equity exposure in portfolios, and the MFBR ticked up to 60% as of June 12 and sits back in buy territory after sliding to 55% the prior week. The trailing four-week net flow has swung sharply positive following a deeply negative stretch, which historically reads as a contrarian buy. We’ve held exposure at 100% since April 17, and this signal keeps us there.
“As of June 12, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,431.46, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 60% and rising. This places the indicator in BUY territory (60-70%), triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 10% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (8 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.” – Bull Bear Report June 13th
The map from here is simple. Overhead, the 20-DMA at 7,466 is the first hurdle, then the round 7,500 mark, then the 7,621 record. Below, the 50-DMA at 7,248 is the line in the sand, with the 38.2% retracement at 7,118 and the rising 200-DMA at 6,882 beneath it. Hold 7,248 through Wednesday’s Fed meeting, and this stays a routine shakeout inside an uptrend.
What Could Break The Trade This Summer
None of that means you switch off your risk management. As we warned in “Leadership Is Narrow” and again in“Market Correction Risk,” the ingredients for a deeper drawdown are quietly building underneath a rising tape. Three of them deserve your attention.
Start with leverage.FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.30 trillion in April, up better than a third in a year, and now runs near 4% of GDP against a long-run median closer to 1.5%. Measured against M2, it’s back near the peaks that preceded the 2000 and 2007 tops. Borrowed money cuts both ways. It is an accelerant, not a cushion.
Next, watch the retail bid. Vanda’s flow data shows single-stock retail net turnover rolling over into negative territory in recent sessions, even as prices grind higher. That divergence matters. When the buyer who powered this rally starts selling into strength, the marginal source of demand thins out right as the supply picture gets heavier.
Then there’s the cold math on bonds versus stocks. The 10-year Treasury now yields about 4.45%, while the S&P 500’s trailing earnings yield sits near 3.7%. For the first time in this cycle, a risk-free Treasury pays you MORE than the index earns. That flips the equity risk premium negative and hands every allocator a credible, paid-to-wait reason to trim equities into bonds.
Layer on the supply story as detailed in “Equity Supply Surge”: Alphabet’s $80 billion secondary, SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO, and a queue of mega-raises from OpenAI, Anthropic, and the hyperscalers mean the market has to absorb a wall of new paper. More shares chasing the same dollars is a persistent headwind, not a one-day shock. As we noted in “Parabolic Semiconductor Rally,” when the most prized names all rush the exit at once, it pays to ask who is selling.
How We’re Positioning
So how do we square a buy signal with a real list of worries? We hold exposure and manage risk simultaneously. Those two things aren’t in conflict. The MFBR keeps us invested because the weight of the evidence and a clean test of support still point higher. Bob Farrell’s fourth rule reminds us that exponential moves tend to run further than anyone expects and then correct violently. Markets like that never correct gently. Therefore, we keep trailing stops disciplined, we refuse to chase the SpaceX-fueled enthusiasm at the highs, and we watch 7,248 like a hawk.
The calendar adds a second reason for that discipline. We’re walking into the weakest stretch of the year. As I detailed in “Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky,” the May-through-October window has produced an average S&P 500 gain of just 1.7% since 1950, compared with better than 7% in November through April. The old “sell in May” line gets mocked every spring by people who haven’t looked at the data. The data is one-sided.
Then stack the election cycle on top. 2026 is a midterm year, and midterm years are the weakest and most volatile leg of the four-year presidential cycle. Jeff Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has tracked the pattern for decades, and the numbers are sobering. Going back to the early 1960s, the average intra-year drawdown in a midterm year runs around 17% to 18%. That is well above the roughly 13% you see in the other three years. Notably, volatility tends to build up ahead of the November vote as investors handicap the balance of power in Congress.
Here’s the part that keeps me constructive, though. That midterm weakness has historically been a setup, not an ending. The 12 months after a midterm election have delivered an average S&P 500 gain of more than 12%. Furthermore, the Dow has climbed by more than 45% on average from its midterm-year low to its pre-election-year high. So the same seasonal soft patch that turns a routine bull market pullback into a deeper summer correction has, time and again, been the launchpad for the next leg up. We manage risk now, NOT because the bull market is over. We do it because we want dry powder and a steady hand when the seasonal low shows up.
None of this is about going to cash and hiding. It’s about tilting the book so you can sit through a noisy summer and still have ammunition for the fall. Here’s the playbook we’re running.
Howard Marks said it best.
“The riskiest thing in markets is the belief that there is no risk.”
With high-yield spreads pinned near 300 basis points, the market is pricing almost none. That’s exactly the backdrop where this kind of playbook earns its keep. Stay invested, but keep one hand on the exit.
The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet. Watch the Fed on Wednesday, watch wages, and watch whether second-half earnings estimates hold. The trend is your friend right up until the day it isn’t. Our job between now and then is to stay invested without going blind.
What’s your read? Are you adding to this dip or trimming into strength? Does the gap between a bullish tape and a long list of risks have you second-guessing your own positioning? If so, that’s exactly the conversation worth having. Connect with our team, and let’s pressure-test your portfolio before the summer does it for you.
Apollo Picks Austin Over New York As Wall Street’s Migration South Continues
It’s not just Citadel that’s moving out of New York.
Apollo Global Management has chosen Austin, Texas, as its second headquarters, according to sources familiar with the decision. The firm, which manages about $1 trillion in assets, evaluated Austin, Miami, Palm Beach, and Nashville before CEO Marc Rowan selected Austin, according to Financial Times.
The new office is expected to host most future hiring as Apollo expands beyond its longtime New York base. While the decision has been communicated internally, it is not yet final.
Austin’s appeal includes its strong talent pipeline, growing tech ecosystem, quality of life, and business-friendly environment. Texas has increasingly attracted major financial and corporate employers, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, SpaceX, and ExxonMobil.
FT writes that Apollo has been broadening its U.S. footprint since the pandemic, opening major offices in Connecticut and Florida. The firm now employs more than 4,000 people, over double its 2020 headcount.
Although New York remains Apollo’s primary headquarters, the company has stated that most future growth is expected to occur in its second HQ. Austin reportedly also benefited from concerns among employees about limited private-school options in Miami.
Apollo’s decision highlights a broader trend reshaping the financial industry. As taxes, regulatory costs, and political uncertainty continue to rise in New York, firms are increasingly looking elsewhere for growth. Critics argue that Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s antagonistic rhetoric toward business and his support for higher taxes have reinforced concerns among executives and investors, accelerating the migration of talent and capital to states such as Texas and Florida.
For companies weighing where to expand, Austin’s pro-business environment and lower tax burden are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is scheduled to kick off operations this month, roughly three years after construction activities began on the project, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a June 12 statement.
“The wind farm, located in New Mexico, has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts (MW) and is composed of 916 wind turbines,” the EIA said.
“SunZia’s capacity is more than three times larger than the next two largest wind farms, Alta Wind in Southern California (1,098 MW) and Great Prairie in northern Texas (1,027 MW).”
Some of the turbines had already begun producing power and contributing to the electricity grid by April this year, during a testing phase. The wind farm, spread across three counties, is coming online after almost two decades of permitting and planning.
Once operational, much of the wind farm’s power will be exported to Southern California and Arizona.
According to Pattern Energy, which built the project, the wind farm and electricity transmission projects are estimated to generate $20.5 billion in economic benefits throughout the project’s life.
Local governments, private landowners, schools, and communities are estimated to receive $1.3 billion in direct payments.
In terms of employment, the project is calculated to have created more than 2,000 construction jobs.
The EIA said that once SunZia comes online, it will push up New Mexico’s net summer wind generating capacity from 3,997 to 7,647 MW. Wind power will account for 45 percent of the state’s energy capacity mix, followed by 19 percent each from solar and natural gas.
“To be able to export the power generated by this project, Pattern Energy also built the SunZia Transmission Project—a 550-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line that goes from the SunZia Wind Project site in central New Mexico to south-central Arizona,” the EIA said.
“Of the SunZia transmission line’s 3,021 MW of power capacity, 2,131 MW will be delivered and consumed in Southern California.”
According to a fact sheet from Pattern Energy, the SunZia wind farm was developed with a “deep commitment to environmental stewardship” and involved discussions with local, regional, and national conservation stakeholders.
The project will provide “clean power” to 3 million Americans annually. It will save more than 7 billion gallons of water per year compared to coal-fired power and avoid more than 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to removing roughly 3 million cars from the road.
Curtailing Wind Power
The Trump administration has actively worked to remove incentives for wind power projects, citing concerns about energy security.
In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the administration to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy facilities.
Trump said in the order that these renewable energy sources make America dependent on foreign-controlled supply chains and threaten national security.
Wind and solar power tech rely on materials whose supply chains are controlled by China; for instance, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and manganese are critical to the storage batteries used in wind and solar projects. These rare-earth elements are crucial for the development of wind turbines.
The same month, the Department of the Interior implemented policy measures, such as restoring the congressional mandate to consider all uses of public land and waters equally, to end what it termed “special treatment” accorded to “unreliable energy sources” such as wind power. While fossil fuels can generate power at any time, sources such as wind depend on the weather.
In August 2025, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed an order to rein in wind and solar power projects.
“One advanced nuclear plant … produces 33.17 megawatts (MW) per acre, while one offshore wind farm produces approximately 0.006 MW/acre, which is approximately 5,500 times less efficient than one nuclear plant,” the department said at the time.
Earlier this month, seven states, including New York and New Jersey, sued the Trump administration over a deal the federal government made with a French wind farm developer. The deal led to the cancellation of an offshore lease intended to develop wind farms and stalled New York’s offshore wind power plans.
“For more than a year, offshore wind has faced an unprecedented and unrelenting campaign of political interference despite billions in private investment, state commitments, and court rulings,” Liz Burdock, president of industry group Oceantic Network, said in a statement.
Meanwhile, solar power overtook coal in the United States’ electricity mix for the first ever month on record in May, energy think tank Ember said in a June 10 statement.
“Solar supplied a record 12.8 percent of US electricity, while coal fell to 12.2 percent, its fourth-lowest monthly share ever,” the company said.
“The share of coal generation in the US mix has nearly halved in the last five years, falling from 19.7 percent in May 2021 to 12.2 percent in May 2026. In contrast, solar power’s share of the mix more than doubled from 5.4 percent to 12.8 percent over the same period.”
A U.S.-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping and production will not immediately return to normal.
More than 10 million bpd of Middle Eastern oil production has been shut in, and some fields may take months to restart fully.
Iraq faces a slower recovery than Saudi Arabia or the UAE because its southern exports depend heavily on access through Basrah.
The U.S.-Iran deal and the potentially imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz do not mean that oil and gas trade will quickly return to its previous levels. The announcement of the deal is just the first step, and it could take months for oil and gas shipments in the region to return to pre-war levels.
Middle Eastern producers have been forced to shut in more than 10 million barrels per day of oil production since the Strait of Hormuz was closed three and a half months ago. Producers will need months to fully ramp up wells to previous output levels, while the status of the Strait of Hormuz – even if it re-opens on Friday as expected – is still unclear.
“We don’t know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be,” Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told AP late on Sunday.
Some producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be quicker to restore output compared to Iraq, for example, which had to curtail the highest proportion of its production due to its inability to move the crude out of its southern fields through Basrah.
“Places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they’ve had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult,” Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said.
“It may well take about a year before they get back,” the expert told AP.
At the end of May, WoodMac’s analysts said that assuming operators choose a measured and controlled ramp-up, the fields affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure could get back to 70% of prior production within three months and to 90% within six months. The last 1 million bpd or so will take considerably longer, according to the energy consultancy.
According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, “The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market.”
Already, some shipping companies have made it clear that they will wait until the deal is formalized on Friday before attempting to cross the Strait. Even for shipowners who are willing to make the crossing, organizing insurance and other practical issues could further delay the recovery.
The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could well mark the end of the war between Iran and the U.S., but it marks only the beginning of what will likely be a long road to recovery for the oil and gas industry.
First LNG Tanker Crosses Hormuz After Deal Announcement As Most Ship Managers Remain Cautious
An LNG carrier successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz early on Monday, the first tanker carrying energy products to clear the chokepoint since the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait later this week, according to OilPrice.com
While tanker owners and operators remain cautious about rushing to send vessels to the area or having the ones inside the Persian Gulf move quickly toward Hormuz, one LNG tanker passed through the Strait today, carrying LNG to India.
The LNG tanker Disha cleared Hormuz and is currently in the Gulf of Oman, ship-tracking data on MarineTraffic showed. The tanker had loaded LNG from Qatar’s Ras Laffan in early March, just when the Gulf state halted LNG production and exports amid the closed Strait of Hormuz and Iranian missile hits on its LNG infrastructure at Ras Laffan.
The first LNG carrier to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of the US-Iran MOU.
The tanker is now en route to India, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Monday.
India has had several LNG tankers from Qatar move through the Strait of Hormuz in the past months, after securing and negotiating corridors with Iran.
Now the tentative U.S.-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease the traffic congestion and allow more tankers to head to the Middle East to pick up supplies. If the deal holds.
That said, tanker owners and operators await clearance to proceed and are not rushing to test the passage until they have assurances it is safe to do so.
“While we are aware of signs of progress towards a ceasefire, our policy remains unchanged; we will only resume navigation once safety has been fully confirmed,” a spokesperson for Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines told Reuters on Monday.
According to MarineTraffic, vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited: 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude, refined products, LPG, chemicals, methanol, and general cargo movements. Activity was concentrated on 11 and 12 June, while directional flows remained imbalanced: 23 crossings moved west-to-east, compared with six in the opposite direction.
Additionally, route transparency also remains a key issue, with 18 crossings, or around 62%, classified as Dark or Unknown Route. Two sanctioned vessels were also identified during the period.
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains uneven
Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited. According to #MarineTraffic data, 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude,… pic.twitter.com/SXkofITV5Y
As Bloomberg notes, two major oil product shippers and a large vessel management firm remain cautious about sailing in the Middle East, even with the US and Iran reaching an interim peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker owner Hafnia said the situation remains fluid, and that “to prepare transits, any alleged reopening must be supported by verified security conditions on the ground”
“Hafnia will only resume transits once there is sufficient confidence in the security environment”
Ship owner Torm meanwhile said it will “carefully assess the situation and resume transits when we consider it safe and responsible to do so”
Jesper Kristensen, CEO of Synergy Marine Group, which manages more than 700 vessels, said that “while the announcement is encouraging, sustained stability and predictability over the coming days will matter.”
“It remains too early to draw firm conclusions,” he added.
Finally, as Lloyds List notes, shipowners rushing to reposition vessels and markets are rallying, yet insurers for now are holding firm on high war‑risk premiums, insisting on ‘solid evidence’ of lasting safety before lowering rates.
Industry bodies warn that mine clearance and a return to the formal Traffic Separation Scheme are essential, as Iran’s blockade has permanently altered regional risk and demonstrated its leverage over the strait.
While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality, with elevated risk now embedded in long‑term decision‑making.
Commenting on the situation, a senior US official said that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will see a significant increase in one to two weeks from now, adding that “the flow of traffic will take some time to improve due to mines in the strait.”
Key Events This Week: First Warsh FOMC, Iran Deal Signing, Retail Sales And More
After 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced on Sunday afternoon – Trump’s birthday, shortly before futures opened for trading and ahead of today’s Iran game in the World Cup – and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran.
The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.
Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it’s not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can’t rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.
Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.
The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinized for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.
In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labor market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.
Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. DB’s economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment DB economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.
However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favoring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.
In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.
Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (expectations for 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation. Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).
Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).
In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalization process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.
Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day snapshot of key events
Monday June 15
Data: US June Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, May industrial production, manufacturing production, capacity utilisation, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance, Canada May housing starts, April manufacturing sales
Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel, Pereira and Kocher speak
Other: G7 leaders’ summit (through June 17)
Tuesday June 16
Data: US May housing starts, building permits, import price index, export price index, June New York Fed services business activity, China May retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Germany June Zew survey, Eurozone June Zew survey, Canada May existing home sales, April international securities transactions
Central banks: BoJ decision, RBA decision, ECB’s Lane, Sleijpen and Escriva speak
Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)
Wednesday June 17
Data: US May retail sales, pending home sales, April business inventories, UK May CPI, RPI, PPI, April house price index, Japan May trade balance, April core machine orders, New Zealand Q1 GDP
Central banks: Fed decision, Riksbank decision, ECB’s Sleijpen speaks
Thursday June 18
Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, April total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Italy April current account balance, ECB April current account, Eurozone April construction output, Canada May industrial product price index, raw materials price index
Central banks: BoE decision, SNB decision, Norges Bank decision, ECB’s Kocher, Nagel, Cipollone, Lane and Escriva speak
Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS (reopening, $24bn)
Other: European Council summit (through June 19)
Friday June 19
Data: UK June GfK consumer confidence, May retail sales, public finances, Japan May national CPI, Germany May PPI, Canada April retail sales
Central banks: ECB’s Lane, Escriva and Cipollone speak, BoJ minutes of the April meeting
Other: US Juneteenth holiday
* * *
Looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Wednesday. The June FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.
Monday, June 15
08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus 13.2, last 19.6)
09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.1%): We estimate industrial production edged up by 0.1% in May, reflecting increases in auto and oil and gas production, but a decline in natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%.
10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 37, last 37)
Tuesday, June 16
08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +0.8%, last +1.9%); Export price index, May (consensus +0.6%, last +3.3%)
08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -1.5%, consensus -2.0%, last -2.8%) ; Building permits, May (consensus -0.2%, last +4.4%)
Wednesday, June 17
08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%);Core retail sales, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.2% in May (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data but potential payback after several months of outsized increases. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we forecast a 0.3% increase in the core; the relevant deflator in the PCE price index likely declined 0.1% in May. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.4%, reflecting higher gasoline prices.
10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.4%)
02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 16-17 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its June meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and drop the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts. We expect the median dot to show no change to the funds rate in 2026, with three participants projecting a hike this year. We expect the median dot to still show two cuts eventually, most likely one in each of 2027 and 2028. We assume that Chairman Warsh will not submit dots in light of his past criticism of forward guidance, but we are not sure. The economic projections for 2026 are likely to show slightly lower GDP growth and unemployment, and much higher headline and core inflation, but we only expect a small increase in the inflation projections for 2027.
Thursday, June 18
08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS 5.0, consensus 10.0, last -0.4)
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 13 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 6 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,795k)
Friday, June 19
Juneteenth National Independence Day. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also remain closed.
