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Trump Admin Approves Public Release Of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Models Ahead Of Thursday Release

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Trump Admin Approves Public Release Of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Models Ahead Of Thursday Release

The Trump administration has approved the wide public release of OpenAI’s advanced GPT-5.6 model family, a source familiar with the discussions confirmed to Axios on Tuesday. OpenAI announced late Tuesday night that its flagship model, named Sol, along with the more accessible Terra and Luna variants, will launch publicly this Thursday.

Prompt via GPTcommands

The decision marks the latest delayed rollout due to coordination between the U.S. government and leading AI companies over access to frontier systems.

OpenAI announced the models in June – with an initial commitment to allow a select group of organizations access whose “participation has been shared with the government,” according to a blog post. According to the company, “we’re introducing a new max reasoning effort to give Sol the most time to reason deeply. Additionally, we’re introducing a new ultra mode that goes beyond the capabilities of a single agent by leveraging subagents to accelerate complex work.”

Last month, the administration directed OpenAI to begin with a limited release of GPT-5.6, restricting early access to government-approved entities only. OpenAI had publicly stated at the time that a staggered approach was not its preferred method and that both companies and regulators were operating without finalized standards called for in President Trump’s recent AI executive order.

The new green light followed additional testing and meetings – with technical experts from OpenAI traveling to Washington, D.C. to answer questions during the review process. The evaluation was conducted by the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) within the Department of Commerce – the entity responsible for assessing advanced AI systems for safety, security, and standards alignment.

The New Normal

Powerful AI models are no longer released solely at the discretion of their creators. The U.S. government and top AI labs are actively negotiating – model by model, in real time – who gets access and under what conditions due to concerns over national security, potential misuse, the need to maintain American leadership in AI while managing downsides. Of course, big brother is also shackling US models while cheaper, more efficient, open-weighted Chinese models are starting to dominate. That said – China is now considering restricting access to their models.

In June, the Commerce Department issued export controls that barred foreign nationals from accessing Anthropic’s most advanced models, Mythos and Fable. The restrictions were so broad that Anthropic temporarily withdrew the models from the market entirely to comply.

The ban on Fable was lifted last week, with customer access restored the following day after safeguards were implemented – and users reporting performance hits thanks to the beefed up guardrails.

So, this is the new normal. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have said they are working with the government while clearer, more standardized release frameworks – outlined in the administration’s executive order – are still being finalized.

For developers and users, the immediate outcome is positive: after weeks of limited availability, GPT-5.6’s full capabilities will soon be open to the broader public and enterprise customers. For policymakers, it demonstrates that targeted reviews and technical collaboration can resolve concerns without indefinite delays.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 10:25

The Plumbing For Vast Defense Spending Needs To Be Set Up

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The Plumbing For Vast Defense Spending Needs To Be Set Up

By Michael Every of Rabobank

In response to Iranian strikes on ships using the Omani route in Hormuz, the US has struck Iranian air defense, missile, and drone sites in the Strait and suspended its oil sanctions waiver. These are clear breaches of the MoU, and we will now see if Iran escalates –it says it will take “decisive” action– with the risk of war if the US is also prepared to go that route. We suspect the US will try to step back for now. Even so, it should be clear why our base case is that more war is likely after the midterms. Obviously, oil prices are up today on this news; but crack spreads are already so wide that hardly matters.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Secretary of War Hegseth is to visit Israel today as PM Netanyahu reiterates that he and Trump align on ”the big things” over Iran; bomb attacks rocked Damascus as France’s Macron visited; Lebanon’s president is to get his first White House visit; and the FT reports Saudi Arabia is blocking private sector payments to Dubai – a sign of rising tensions between those two GCC economies.

At the Ankara NATO summit, Trump struck a friendlier tone towards Turkey than many in Europe, removed sanctions over its purchase of the S-400 Russian antiaircraft system, and saying he’ll “certainly consider” selling them F-35s – setting off alarms in Jerusalem and Athens.

The summit has already seen Secretary General Rutte say, “Admit it – Trump was right.” Yes, Trump just reiterated he could pull all his troops out of Europe (no: Congress wouldn’t allow it) and still wants to control Greenland, which implies fission. But NATO announced joint economic projects to counter Russia and China, ranging from critical minerals to drones to missile shields, aimed at building up a joint military-industrial base: that implies fusion. So does South Korea and NATO agreeing to open procurement talks as President Lee Jae Myung calls for a higher-level defence partnership, something Japan is also pushing for; and as Japan, South Korea, and the US announced cooperation over a new US breakthrough in small modular nuclear reactors. If we count Australia in too at some point, that all seems like a potential building ‘bloc’.

That still comes at a very high price. Ankara has already seen $50bn in defense deals, but that’s a tiny fraction of what’s needed to rearm. Indeed, as European and Canadian defence spending growth is expected to slow this year, and the UK’s new plan falls far short of what’s required, there’s chatter of a ‘World Bank for Defence’, as the UK Chancellor also calls for rival international defense schemes to merge. In short, the plumbing for vast spending needs to be set up.

In that light, yesterday saw the BOE float easing bank capital rules despite what Bloomberg calls “mounting risks,” following new Fed Chair Warsh’s stance: will the BOE also encourage lending into the physical economy, i.e., the military-industrial complex, rather than just holding financial assets; and could it follow a potential US lead on a new inflation measure, as our US strategist plots here? Moreover, the BOE’s new crypto framework regulates GBP stablecoins but allows foreign ones, i.e., USD, to operate under US legislation, opening the door to their adoption.

Not in the same arena (yet), the RBNZ today hiked rates 25bps to 2.50%, as both we and the market had expected. The Bank said that more tightening is needed to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% midpoint of its target, and RaboResearch maintains a forecast of two more 25bp rate hikes in 2026, with an additional 25bp hike in Q1 next year to bring the OCR to 3.25%.

Meanwhile, German business leaders warned Chancellor Merz that far more is needed to prevent the country experiencing a ‘lost decade’; Airbus is to make its first foray into engine manufacturing with a hydrogen project; and EU border chaos has prompted a delay to a planned pre-authorized travel system.

In the Americas, the White House is pressuring retailers over beef prices; and Canada told the UAE it’s not ready for a planned C$70bn of FDI as it doesn’t have any projects on hand(!)

In Asia, a Chinese policy advisor stated that China has the potential to become the world’s largest consumer market by 2041 – as data show its housing market has reversed 20-years of price gains (not always a bad thing in terms of consumer spending power), and a report has it that hundreds of millions of workers are now in the gig economy. That would imply China’s huge trade surplus will be very hard to eliminate, as a trade war with Europe looms alongside tariffs from the US and an emerging bloc-based NATO architecture.

Indeed, as the IMF appoints former BOE advisor Tenreyro as its next chief economist, the old establishment is on the back foot. See the op-ed today in the New York Times from Mohamed El-Erian arguing ‘America was being played. The Bessent Doctrine says those days are over’, which says economic statecraft has taken over and the global leaders of tomorrow need to learn that “considerations of national security, domestic politics, and geopolitics no longer play second fiddle to traditional business interests in determining corporate and economic outcomes. Those business interests are now being sidelined.” This will be a shock to anyone who didn’t read Grand Macro Strategy in November 2024, which made the same arguments and showed how it would happen.

Contrast that with the argument made by Adam Tooze in the Financial Times that the USD is no longer a global reserve FX but just a “profit dollar” backed by rising asset prices. There’s a vast realpolitik difference between financialisation and production but arguing one shouldn’t hold dollars because US assets appreciate is rather odd absent a counterargument for Hamiltonian neomercantilism which many, if not all, critics of the US also reject as the solution.

But back to “domestic politics.” The US Democratic Party candidate for a Maine Senate seat is being pressured to step down over a serious criminal allegation, opening a tug-of-war not just for that seat but within the Democrats between the mainstream and populist wing. That’s after President Trump used an Independence Day speech to rail against “communism.”

In France, Le Pen was given the legal all clear to run for president in 2027, while wearing a police ankle tag. Does this open the door to populists winning or is this an Establishment tactic to put forward a hobbled Le Pen rather than her nimbler (and more popular) deputy Bardella?

Reform UK leader Farage resigned his parliamentary seat over allegations he should have reported a large personal gift and possible party financial support before becoming an MP. He wants to fight a “two-fingers up to the Establishment” by-election, which Labour and the Tories will not contest. One view is Farage is now a farce, as when he wins the pointless by-election the parliamentary investigation into the gifts will just continue. Yet if it concludes there was wrongdoing, he faces suspension from Parliament for 30 days… and another by-election. Another view is Farage is a force and White Van Man will see the Establishment as the farce, just as happened with Trump. Mirroring that episode, the Guardian are pushing a criminal component to the gifts: but Channel 4 interviews of ‘pub-ulists’ in Farage’s seat of Clacton, even with leading questions, saw that as a stitch-up.

Indeed, the Establishment can lose: Prince Harry and other claimants could face a £50m(!) legal bill after losing a phone-hacking court case. Expect a slew of new streaming specials on how to make cupcakes soon?

It’s not only the IMF, central banks, and NATO, who need to get baking, perhaps.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 10:05

South Korea Falls Into Bear Market As Memory Euphoria Fizzles

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South Korea Falls Into Bear Market As Memory Euphoria Fizzles

It started off with the usual morning rush by retail momentum chasers into the handful of massive, market-moving names (read Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix), but as has been the case over the past two weeks, the initial euphoria quickly reversed and the Kospi rolled over, closing down 5.4%, 9.99% over the past two days, and down 22% from the all time high of 9385 hit just over 2 weeks ago on Jun 18.

… officially entering a technical bear market as investors express growing concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally.

To be sure, the Kospi is still the world’s top-performing major stock index this year, having returned more than 70% in local currency terms. but the momentum is clearly to the downside, and finding dip buyers who are willing to hold more than just a few minutes is becoming especially difficult. 

On Wednesday, the market’s two largest constituents, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fell 6.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Shares of the two companies have surged as a result of demand for their memory chips, although attention is increasingly turning to cheaper Chinese-made memory alternatives made by such companies as CXMT (DRAM) and YMTC (NAND).

Sure enough, sentiment has started to turn. Samsung’s shares tumbled as much as 10% on Tuesday, even though the company projected a third straight quarter of record operating profit.

According to the FT, analysts attributed the recent declines to a lack of clarity on how South Korean chipmakers would enforce long-term agreements with customers over chip purchases, echoing a joke we first made just a few days ago. 

US competitors such as Micron have shifted their business model to include longer-term purchasing agreements, but it remains unclear whether Samsung and SK Hynix have been able to secure similar contracts.

“At the moment we have not heard officially from the Korean peers how they plan on executing on these long-term contracts,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas. Lui said South Korean chipmakers could see their price-to-earnings ratio rise “if they can move to longer-term contracts”.

“Given the fundamentals of how strong the Korean market has been over the past two years it’s challenging to call it a bear market,” he said.

Volatility in the South Korean market is being exacerbated by the proliferation of leveraged exchange traded funds that magnify gains and losses. On Tuesday the head of South Korea’s financial regulator warned of “excessive” leveraged stock investments among retail investors.

Some fund managers welcomed the move downwards, saying it was inevitable.

“This is a necessary correction because the rise was too steep and fast,” said Chan Lee of Petra Capital Management. “There are possible buying opportunities outside of AI as well.”

Jongmin Shim, Korea equity strategist at CLSA, said: “I don’t think this story is over. It’s just a bit of a correction on the way up. Nothing goes up forever.”

The correction comes just days before SK Hynix plans to list shares on US exchanges for the first time in a $29bn offering that is expected to be the largest-ever share issuance by an Asian company.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 09:45

Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Is Over, Will ‘Give A Little Warning: Going To Hit Them Hard Tonight’

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Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Is Over, Will ‘Give A Little Warning: Going To Hit Them Hard Tonight’

Update(0930ET): After earlier saying from the NATO summit in Ankara that the Iran ceasefire is “over” – and amid fears of renewal of full-scale war given that Tehran has launched drone and missile attacks on nearby American allies Kuwait and Bahrain once again, President Trump said on Wednesday that he would “probably hit Iran tonight”.

He issued the major threat and warning during a press conference at the NATO summit: “I’ll give a little warning: We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He later lambasted Iran for “killing soldiers, killing people for 47 years,” and that because of that, the US has “a score to settle.”

“We may just do it without a deal,” he also added. He also sought to once again explain his view that it’s not about regime change, but about the nuclear issue.

Geopolitical news source DropSite is pushing back against some of Trump’s newest claims, particularly that Iranians security services gunned down “54,000 protesters” during the January economic protests, commenting:

Trump today claimed Iran’s revolutionary regime killed 54,000 protesters at the start of the year, inflating the 40,000 figure he repeated through much of the US-Israeli war to justify and build support for U.S. action. There is no evidence for either figure.

HRANA, which has received U.S. funding, documented about 7,000 deaths, including many Iranian security and police. Iran puts the death toll just above 3,100 and says rioters killed civilians during protests that were overtaken by Israel- and U.S.-backed armed elements. Scores of videos from the January 2026 riots show armed men destroying mosques and government buildings and carrying out vigilante killings of security personnel.

Meanwhile, it’s not a war, Trump has repeated… but what’s next and what is the ultimate endgame here? Is there a coherent strategy yet?

Trump also on Wednesday, while speaking alongside Zelensky and fielding questions, floated that “if we have to we will take out higher level targets” – and that “we may take over Kharg Island”. He again admitted the Iran deal may not stick, after the US “knocked out 28 boats last night”. He further warned that US forces will probably take out more boats tonight.

  • TRUMP, ON ATTACKS TONIGHT: NOT A THING IRAN CAN DO ABOUT IT
  • TRUMP:WOULD HATE TO STRIKE DESALINATION PLANTS, BUT MAY HAVE TO
  • TRUMP: WE MAY PUT DOWN THE BLOCKADE ON IRAN
  • TRUMP: BLOCKADE WOULD ONLY APPLY TO IRAN

*  *  *

Brent crude futures jumped more than 6% in London after President Trump told reporters at a press conference in Ankara that the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over.

“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore; they’re scum,” Trump told reporters. 

Trump’s remarks came after Iran launched missiles and kamikaze drones at several merchant vessels in the Hormuz chokepoint on Tuesday. This was countered by overnight US strikes, as fears of conflict erupting once more are on the rise.

However, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing.

In European trade, front-month Brent crude futures jumped 6% to $78.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel. Natural gas prices rose as well, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 4.8% to 49.04 euros per megawatt-hour.

Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the interim deal.

Trump also told reporters that he would continue to let his negotiators talk to Tehran, though he thought “they’re wasting their time.”

On Tuesday afternoon, the Joint Maritime Information Center upgraded the Hormuz risk rating to “Severe” after three tankers were targeted by Iran. This renewed uncertainty in the critical waterway will only pressure the normalization of vessel flows.

“Every renewed attack on commercial shipping further erodes confidence in the Strait’s reopening, making each future recovery more fragile than the last,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. “If every reopening is assumed to be temporary, freight rates remain elevated, insurance costs remain high and fewer vessels are willing to re-enter the Gulf.”

Dominic Ellis, UBS equity analyst covering oil and gas, wrote in a note:

The US carried out a new round of strikes against Iran in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran in turn launched missile and drone attacks on US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. While this latest escalation does not mean an end to the diplomatic progress made in recent weeks, it underscores the challenges of diplomacy when both sides believe they have the upper hand.

Markets were too quick to buy into the de-escalation narrative in my view, and while there has been evidence of progress and of a rebound in vessel flows via the Strait of Hormuz, the latest developments may lead to more realistic expectations on the return to normalcy and a slightly higher range for oil in the near term.

The likelihood of a spike above $100/b remains low, however, even in the event of further tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East, given the surprise sustained drop in Chinese crude imports.

Latest Bloomberg data tracking ships transiting the Hormuz chokepoint with transponders on remain elevated, but the number of vessels making the East-West route has fallen dramatically, while West-East remains steady.

Also, note that the oil market’s forward curve has shifted into backwardation. This occurs when near-term futures trade at a premium to longer-dated contracts. The shift shows traders are once again willing to pay up for immediate crude supplies.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

Iran Commentary

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US has violated major parts of the MoU, citing US attacks on southern Iran, reinstating oil sanctions and threats of further strikes as MoU violations.
  • Iran’s Foreign Ministry states that the US activity overnight has “rendered important and fundamental parts of the Memorandum of Understanding on the End of the War ineffective”.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said the US, whether as World Cup host or in its foreign policy, manipulates the rules and resorts to deception, and that Iran rejects such tactics.
  • Iran’s top joint miliary command said Iran will give a crushing response to America’s aggression and terrorist action, and under no circumstances will they allow them to interfere in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz and its management.
  • Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader said US President Trump intends to attack again and we are fully prepared.
  • Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemns the US Treasury’s move to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, will take any measure it deems necessary to safeguard its interests and national security. Iran holds the US government responsible for the consequences of the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding.

Overnight Attacks

  • Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr’s journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published. Elsewhere, sirens were reported in Bahrain once again.
  • Renewed explosions sounds heard around Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, Mehr reported.
  • Iran’s army said it targeted the Sheikh Isa Base in Bahrain and warns of more attacks if the US repeats strikes on Iran, Mehr reported.
  • Iran’s IRGC said that, in response to the US aggression, they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain’s 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait’s Ali Salem Air Base.
  • Iran’s IRGC said they downed a US Mq9 drone in the south of Iran, Press TV reported.
  • Iran fires several anti-ship missiles and drones towards US Navy warships in the Sea of Oman, Fars reported citing the Middle East Spectator.
  • A US official said the strike on Iran was a punitive action, not a proportional response, and that the operation will not end in the short term, CNN reported.

US Commentary

  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over “I think”; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, “think it is over”. Adds, “I do not want to deal with Iran”, they are a “bunch of liars”.
  • US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, “I think this is a waste of time”.
  • US President Trump said have had some great meetings; attacked very powerfully against Iran last night. Have wasted a lot of time with Iran. Iran does not know what it is doing. Iran shot rockets at the ships, which is why the US shot back. Iran is a “dirty” player, “are scum”.
  • US President Trump approved the Iran strike plan and ordered it while in Turkey, a US official tells Axios’ Ravid; the official said it is still unclear how long the strikes are going to continue.
  • US Secretary of Defence Hegseth has cancelled his visit to Israel, N12/Ynet report.

Others

  • Turkish President Erdogan said Europe must take more responsibility when it comes to NATO.
  • US President Trump said China is attempting to takeover the Panama Canal, will not let this happen. China has been treating the US right. Big fan of Chinese President Xi.
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces said Kyiv is under missile attack.
  • Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon.
  • A Pakistani Boeing (BA) plane flying to Karachi has crashed, with sources stating the plane was mistakenly targeted by the US, IRIB reported.
  • Chevron’s (CVX) Yasa Polaris oil tanker, used for CPC shipments, was attacked by drones off Russia’s Black Sea coast, according to sources.
  • Russia’s Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected.
  • Ukraine’s Military said it struck two oil refineries, six tankers, bridges and the Borisoglebsk airfield; AIF-NK oil refinery in Nizhny Kamsk was also damaged.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 09:30

Zelensky In Ankara Still Insistent On Ukraine Joining NATO: ‘Alliance For The Future’

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Zelensky In Ankara Still Insistent On Ukraine Joining NATO: ‘Alliance For The Future’

President Volodymyr Zelensky is in full court press mode while being present in Ankara for the annual NATO summit, amid Western leaders including President Trump. He has predictably renewed his argument for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic alliance, while also touting some momentum on the battlefield as Russia comes under repeat long-range drone attacks. 

Zelensky thanked leaders “who have clearly stated Ukraine belongs in NATO, because NATO with Ukraine is the alliance for the future” – and then posed in Tuesday remarks, “I have a question for you. Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside NATO, a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?”

He argued further: “If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance’s collective defense that would make all of us stronger.”

Source: Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images

Ukraine has been boasting of its premier drone capabilities, which it says is now clearly proven on the battlefield, but has also admitted that Ukraine needs assistance matching Russia’s ballistic capabilities.

Zelensky said “Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require.” He added: “The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defense against Russia’s ballistic missiles. It’s a big challenge… this is Russia’s last major advantage.”

It’s interesting that Zelensky is arguing that his country should become a full-fledged NATO member based on already in effect being militarily integrated.

This was one of the Kremlin’s very rationales for launching the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine in the first place. Also interesting is that Moscow is now referencing it as a ‘war’ on a much more official level…

Peskov via Russian state media sources:

Russia still has as a main front-and-center demand that Ukraine definitively and permanently reject aspirations to join NATO. Moscow also still requires full political recognition over the four eastern annexed oblasts, as well as Crimea. 

Western officials have still been reluctant to fully back some kind of rapid NATO membership track for Ukraine, knowing it would take the Ukraine crisis from more of a proxy war situation strait into WW3-style direct war between Russia and NATO.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 09:25

Prospective Homebuyers Face Another Year Without Affordability Relief

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Prospective Homebuyers Face Another Year Without Affordability Relief

Goldman economist Ronnie Walker has some bad news for prospective homebuyers: while the housing market appears soft but broadly stabilizing, affordability pressures are unlikely to abate anytime soon.

Walker expects mortgage rates to remain elevated through next year, while national home prices are still forecasted to rise modestly. That means buyers waiting for a price correction or lower rates may be disappointed, as the market remains locked in an ultra-low-turnover environment where high borrowing costs, limited affordability, and sticky prices keep many folks on the sidelines. 

“We expect housing demand to remain tepid,” Walker wrote in the note. He pointed out that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is likely to fall marginally to 6.43% by year’s end and hover around 6.3% for 2027.

Here’s more context from Walker about the US housing market and his mid-year outlook into next year:

Residential investment faltered in the first half of the year on the back of particularly poor weather and a sharp rebound in mortgage rates: after declining 8% annualized in Q1, residential fixed investment fell 5% annualized in Q2, we estimate. In this Analyst, we review our key forecasts for the housing market for the rest of the year.

No Keys for Golden Handcuffs

The outlook for the economy’s most interest rate sensitive sector is largely a function of the outlook for mortgage rates. Exhibit 2 shows that mortgage rates rebounded in March in response to the Iran War, higher oil prices, and the prospect of Fed hikes. Our strategists expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, remaining around current levels (6.43%) through yearend before moderating slightly next year (6.3%), reflecting our dovish forecast for the Fed.

Sustained higher mortgage rates will continue to have their most pronounced impact on housing turnover. The left panel of Exhibit 3 shows that almost 80% of mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market rates, and almost 60% have rates more than 2pp below market rates. The combination of mortgage borrowers refinancing at low rates en masse in 2020 and 2021 and the high current level of mortgage rates has created a significant financial cost to moving, as buying a new home would require homebuyers to prepay their current mortgage and take out a new mortgage at a significantly higher rate. As a result of this “lock-in” effect, we expect existing home sales to total just 4.2mn in 2026, 22% below 2019 levels but a touch above the pace of the last two years. Next year, we expect existing home sales to edge up to roughly 4.3mn, reflecting both modestly lower mortgage rates and the natural decay of the lock-in effect that comes from, for example, borrowers paying down their mortgage.

While a modest rebound in the pace of existing home sales would boost the gross supply of available homes, it would have limited implications for net housing supply and the longstanding—but moderating, as discussed below—nationwide housing shortage, as households are often simply switching between housing units and no housing units are created or destroyed. Still, turnover has meaningful implications for GDP, as more existing home sales boost residential fixed investment via brokers’ commissions (which hold a 15% weight in RFI).

Single-family Homebuilding: Slightly Less Support From the Shortage

The longstanding housing shortage has kept single-family homebuilding extremely resistant to higher interest rates. The elevated pace of homebuilding in recent years has improved supply-demand balances, albeit they remain at levels that are still historically tight (Exhibit 4).

That improvement, along with the corresponding compression of margins for homebuilders back to pre-pandemic levels (Exhibit 5), has contributed to a moderate slowdown in single-family housing starts. Single-family starts have declined by 2% so far this year compared to last year but because of the still-tight housing market have averaged 4% above 2019 levels despite 3pp higher mortgage rates today. Looking ahead, we expect single-family housing starts to total 0.92mn this year (vs. 0.94mn in 2025) and to end the year around a 0.93mn annualized pace. This view is similar to the signal from equity analyst expectations, a proxy for corporate guidance, for units delivered by homebuilders this year.

We expect housing demand to remain tepid. On the positive side, domestic demographic trends remain supportive and survey-based measures of purchase intentions (such as the measure from Conference Board that asks respondents whether they plan on purchasing a home within six months) have improved over the last year.

But on the negative side, income growth is poor and reduced immigration will continue to weigh on household formation. Exhibit 6 shows our model of household formation that combines projections of headship rates (the share of people who are heads of a household) by age group with Census projections of population growth by age group that we have then adjusted for reduced immigration. This approach yields an estimated rate of household formation of about 1.0mn per year for the next few years, below the recent trend.

The combination of still-elevated supply growth and slightly weaker demand should continue to push the homeowner vacancy rate higher, we estimate from 1.1% in 2026Q1 to 1.2% in 2026Q4 and 1.3% in 2027. Against the backdrop of an easing housing market, we expect national home prices to rise just 0.8% December-over-December this year and 2.3% next year.

What impact has the slowdown in immigration since 2025 had on housing supply, housing demand, and their balance

Combining our state-level estimates of unauthorized immigration based on court case data with state-level housing outcomes, we find that the states that experienced greater slowdowns in unauthorized immigration between 2024 and 2025 have had both weaker home sales and homebuilding (Exhibit 7, top panels). We also find that home price growth has been weaker in states with a greater immigration slowdown (bottom panel), suggesting a slightly greater hit to demand than supply. However, the relationship with home prices has only borderline statistical significance, and we did not find a meaningful relationship between slowdowns in immigration and changes in vacancy rates.

Separately, a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report adds another pressure point for many Americans already priced out of the housing market. The report suggests that the Biden-Harris regime’s open-border policies helped fuel a surge in illegal aliens, creating a housing-demand shock that contributed to faster home-price and rent growth nationwide.

Taken together, the message for prospective homebuyers is not encouraging. Goldman sees the housing market as soft but broadly stabilizing, yet mortgage rates and home prices are expected to remain elevated into next year. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s findings suggest immigration-driven demand may have worsened affordability pressures.

All in, 2027 is shaping up to be another year in which affordability concerns keep millions of would-be buyers on the sidelines, delaying or denying participation in the American dream of homeownership.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 06:55

US Bitcoin Reserve Stalls As Treasury And Commerce Vie For Control: Report

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US Bitcoin Reserve Stalls As Treasury And Commerce Vie For Control: Report

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Sixteen months after President Donald Trump ordered his administration to build a federal bitcoin reserve, the White House says it is still working out how the fund should be structured, and a dispute between two departments has slowed the effort, according to recent reporting from Bloomberg.

Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 to create what he called a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, along with a separate U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile for other cryptocurrencies. 

The order directed the Treasury and Commerce departments to develop budget-neutral methods for acquiring bitcoin, ones that would not draw on taxpayer money. 

The reserve was to be funded in large part with bitcoin the government already holds through criminal and civil forfeitures.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve obstacles

According to Bloomberg, the plan has run into two obstacles. Treasury and Commerce are each making a case to run the reserve, and questions have arisen over whether Treasury has the legal authority to manage the holdings. 

People familiar with the matter, who were not authorized to speak in public, said housing the reserve inside the Commerce Department is one option under review.

The Justice Department said its Office of Legal Counsel “is working closely with both the Treasury and Commerce departments to determine legally available options to accomplish the president’s policy.” 

A further concern is whether the government can hold bitcoin for an indefinite period, as the order intended, given the currency’s price swings.

“President Trump campaigned on a vision of cementing America as the global capital of cryptocurrency and other cutting-edge technologies,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in a statement. “To deliver on the president’s vision, the Trump administration continues to evaluate the best structure for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.”

The administration’s chief crypto adviser, Patrick Witt, said in April that he expected a major announcement within weeks. That announcement has not come.

Officials have said a presidential order alone cannot complete the project. The order does not carry the force of law, and Congress has not passed legislation to authorize the reserve. 

Yesterday, while speaking on the newly introduced Trump Accounts, President Trump said bitcoin could eventually be added to the accounts, saying “something could happen” when asked about the asset. Trump also said he’s “a big fan of crypto.” 

New Bitcoin legislation introduced

A bill from Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., and Rep. Nick Begich, R-Alaska, would codify the order and set a target of acquiring 1 million bitcoin over five years through budget-neutral strategies. No such measure has advanced. If Republicans lose their House majority in this year’s midterm elections, the prospect of passage could dim.

The government’s bitcoin position ranks among the largest in the world. Estimates put it above 300,000 coins, worth more than $20 billion at current prices, according to Arkham Intelligence. The White House has said premature sales of seized bitcoin cost taxpayers about $17 billion over the years, and that a single reserve holding the asset for the long term would give the country a strategic advantage.

Timing has also worked against the plan as an investment. Bitcoin reached a record in October, a rally the administration tied in part to enthusiasm about Trump, then fell close to 50% from that peak. When Trump first called for the reserve, bitcoin traded near $93,000; it now sits above $64,000, a drop of about a third.

While the structure remains unresolved, Trump has built a personal bitcoin position of more than $50 million, according to his recent financial disclosure. 

The reserve, described by the administration as strategic, differs from a conventional strategic reserve because it is meant to be held for the long term rather than tapped during market emergencies.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 06:30

How America’s Wealth Distribution Has Changed Over The Last 40 Years

survivalnomics
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How America’s Wealth Distribution Has Changed Over The Last 40 Years

Wealth reflects the value of everything households own, including homes, stocks, businesses, and savings, minus what they owe.

Because different wealth groups own very different mixes of assets, long-term market trends can reshape how the nation’s wealth is divided.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Boyan Girginov, tracks how U.S. household wealth has shifted across wealth groups from Q3 1989 to Q4 2025 using data from the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts.

Wealth of the Top 1% vs. the Bottom 90%

The table below shows how the wealth distribution has changed over the last 35 years:

The top 1% built its wealth primarily through stocks and businesses, assets that have soared in value for decades. In fact, every group below the top 1% has lost share since 1989: even the next 9% of households, from the 90th to 99th percentiles, slipped from 38.0% to 36.4%.

Wealth further down the ladder is tied mostly to the family home, which appreciates far more slowly than the stock market. Much of the bottom 50%’s net worth is home equity, and many households in that group have little or no net worth at all. That’s why the gap between the top and the bottom has widened over the last 36 years.

How Markets Move Each Group’s Share

Market swings move each group’s share differently, depending on the assets its households own.

Every boom rewards whoever holds financial assets, and those gains compound: between 1989 and 2025, the top 0.1% increased its share of household wealth from 8.6% to 14.5%, while the top 1% as a whole climbed from 22.8% to 31.9%.

Busts fall hardest on those with the least cushion. The 2008 housing crash crushed the value of ordinary households’ main asset, and the bottom 50%’s share eventually fell to a record low of 0.4% before recovering to 2.5% today.

Over the full period, no group lost more ground than the upper-middle 40%, households between the 50th and 90th percentiles, whose share slid from 35.7% to 29.2% as home values trailed the stock market.

Wealth Distribution by Income Segment (1989-2025)

See all the data for the last 36 years below:

Time Period Top 0.1% Top 1%
(excl. top 0.1%)		 Top 10%
(excl. top 1%)		 Upper-Middle 40%
(excl. top 10%)		 Bottom 50%
Q3 1989 8.6% 14.2% 38.0% 35.7% 3.5%
Q4 1989 8.7% 14.2% 37.9% 35.7% 3.4%
Q1 1990 8.6% 14.1% 37.7% 36.1% 3.5%
Q2 1990 8.7% 14.2% 37.6% 36.1% 3.4%
Q3 1990 8.5% 14.0% 37.3% 36.7% 3.5%
Q4 1990 8.7% 14.1% 37.2% 36.4% 3.6%
Q1 1991 8.9% 14.2% 37.0% 36.3% 3.5%
Q2 1991 8.8% 14.2% 36.9% 36.5% 3.5%
Q3 1991 8.8% 14.3% 36.6% 36.6% 3.7%
Q4 1991 9.1% 14.4% 36.5% 36.3% 3.7%
Q1 1992 9.0% 14.4% 36.3% 36.5% 3.8%
Q2 1992 8.9% 14.3% 36.3% 36.7% 3.8%
Q3 1992 8.9% 14.1% 36.2% 36.7% 4.1%
Q4 1992 9.2% 14.3% 36.1% 36.4% 4.0%
Q1 1993 9.5% 14.5% 36.1% 36.1% 3.8%
Q2 1993 9.6% 14.5% 36.0% 36.1% 3.8%
Q3 1993 9.8% 14.7% 35.7% 36.0% 3.8%
Q4 1993 10.1% 14.8% 35.6% 35.8% 3.7%
Q1 1994 10.2% 14.9% 35.5% 35.9% 3.5%
Q2 1994 10.3% 15.0% 35.3% 35.9% 3.4%
Q3 1994 10.5% 15.1% 35.0% 35.9% 3.5%
Q4 1994 10.8% 15.2% 34.8% 35.7% 3.5%
Q1 1995 10.9% 15.4% 34.7% 35.5% 3.5%
Q2 1995 11.1% 15.6% 34.2% 35.5% 3.6%
Q3 1995 11.4% 15.9% 33.9% 35.1% 3.7%
Q4 1995 11.5% 15.9% 34.0% 34.9% 3.6%
Q1 1996 11.5% 15.9% 34.2% 35.0% 3.5%
Q2 1996 11.4% 15.9% 34.2% 35.1% 3.4%
Q3 1996 11.3% 15.8% 34.3% 35.2% 3.4%
Q4 1996 11.4% 15.8% 34.5% 35.0% 3.4%
Q1 1997 11.2% 15.7% 34.6% 35.0% 3.4%
Q2 1997 11.4% 15.9% 34.7% 34.6% 3.4%
Q3 1997 11.4% 15.9% 34.8% 34.4% 3.4%
Q4 1997 11.5% 16.0% 35.0% 34.2% 3.3%
Q1 1998 11.7% 16.1% 35.1% 33.8% 3.3%
Q2 1998 11.7% 16.1% 35.2% 33.8% 3.2%
Q3 1998 11.2% 15.9% 35.1% 34.3% 3.5%
Q4 1998 11.5% 16.2% 35.4% 33.6% 3.3%
Q1 1999 11.2% 16.2% 35.5% 33.7% 3.4%
Q2 1999 11.3% 16.4% 35.6% 33.5% 3.2%
Q3 1999 11.0% 16.3% 35.6% 33.8% 3.3%
Q4 1999 11.3% 16.6% 35.9% 32.9% 3.2%
Q1 2000 11.2% 16.7% 35.9% 33.0% 3.2%
Q2 2000 10.9% 16.6% 35.9% 33.4% 3.2%
Q3 2000 10.7% 16.6% 35.8% 33.6% 3.3%
Q4 2000 10.4% 16.4% 35.8% 34.2% 3.2%
Q1 2001 9.9% 16.2% 35.7% 35.0% 3.2%
Q2 2001 9.9% 16.3% 35.8% 34.9% 3.1%
Q3 2001 9.6% 16.0% 35.8% 35.6% 3.1%
Q4 2001 9.7% 16.2% 35.9% 35.3% 3.0%
Q1 2002 9.6% 16.2% 36.0% 35.3% 3.0%
Q2 2002 9.4% 16.2% 36.0% 35.5% 2.9%
Q3 2002 9.0% 16.0% 36.0% 36.0% 3.0%
Q4 2002 9.0% 16.1% 36.0% 36.0% 2.9%
Q1 2003 8.8% 16.0% 36.2% 36.1% 2.8%
Q2 2003 9.2% 16.2% 36.5% 35.5% 2.6%
Q3 2003 9.2% 16.3% 36.5% 35.3% 2.6%
Q4 2003 9.5% 16.5% 36.6% 34.8% 2.6%
Q1 2004 9.9% 16.7% 36.5% 34.4% 2.5%
Q2 2004 9.9% 16.7% 36.5% 34.3% 2.6%
Q3 2004 10.0% 16.8% 36.5% 34.2% 2.5%
Q4 2004 10.2% 16.8% 36.6% 33.9% 2.5%
Q1 2005 10.2% 16.7% 36.7% 33.9% 2.5%
Q2 2005 10.4% 16.8% 36.9% 33.6% 2.4%
Q3 2005 10.5% 16.8% 36.9% 33.3% 2.5%
Q4 2005 10.5% 16.7% 36.9% 33.3% 2.5%
Q1 2006 11.0% 16.9% 37.1% 32.6% 2.4%
Q2 2006 11.0% 16.8% 37.2% 32.6% 2.4%
Q3 2006 11.1% 16.9% 37.3% 32.4% 2.4%
Q4 2006 11.3% 16.9% 37.4% 32.0% 2.3%
Q1 2007 11.6% 17.0% 37.6% 31.6% 2.2%
Q2 2007 11.7% 17.0% 37.8% 31.3% 2.1%
Q3 2007 11.9% 17.1% 38.0% 31.0% 2.0%
Q4 2007 11.8% 17.0% 38.3% 31.2% 1.7%
Q1 2008 11.6% 16.9% 38.5% 31.5% 1.5%
Q2 2008 11.4% 17.0% 38.6% 31.5% 1.5%
Q3 2008 11.2% 17.0% 38.9% 31.9% 1.2%
Q4 2008 10.6% 17.1% 38.8% 32.5% 1.0%
Q1 2009 10.3% 17.1% 39.0% 32.9% 0.7%
Q2 2009 10.3% 17.3% 39.2% 32.5% 0.7%
Q3 2009 10.6% 17.5% 39.4% 31.9% 0.7%
Q4 2009 10.5% 17.6% 39.6% 31.8% 0.6%
Q1 2010 10.6% 17.6% 39.7% 31.6% 0.5%
Q2 2010 10.5% 17.6% 39.9% 31.5% 0.5%
Q3 2010 10.8% 17.7% 40.0% 31.0% 0.5%
Q4 2010 11.0% 17.8% 40.1% 30.7% 0.4%
Q1 2011 11.3% 17.9% 40.0% 30.5% 0.4%
Q2 2011 11.3% 17.8% 39.9% 30.5% 0.4%
Q3 2011 11.1% 17.7% 39.8% 31.0% 0.4%
Q4 2011 11.3% 17.7% 39.8% 30.8% 0.4%
Q1 2012 11.5% 17.9% 39.7% 30.4% 0.4%
Q2 2012 11.6% 17.8% 39.6% 30.5% 0.6%
Q3 2012 11.8% 17.8% 39.5% 30.3% 0.6%
Q4 2012 11.8% 17.8% 39.4% 30.3% 0.7%
Q1 2013 12.0% 17.8% 39.4% 30.2% 0.7%
Q2 2013 12.0% 17.6% 39.4% 30.2% 0.8%
Q3 2013 12.1% 17.6% 39.3% 30.1% 0.9%
Q4 2013 12.2% 17.6% 39.4% 30.0% 0.9%
Q1 2014 12.3% 17.7% 39.4% 29.7% 0.9%
Q2 2014 12.5% 17.9% 39.3% 29.3% 1.0%
Q3 2014 12.5% 17.9% 39.3% 29.3% 1.0%
Q4 2014 12.6% 18.0% 39.4% 29.1% 1.0%
Q1 2015 12.6% 18.0% 39.3% 28.9% 1.0%
Q2 2015 12.7% 18.1% 39.4% 28.8% 1.1%
Q3 2015 12.5% 18.0% 39.4% 29.0% 1.1%
Q4 2015 12.5% 18.1% 39.3% 28.9% 1.2%
Q1 2016 12.5% 18.1% 39.3% 28.9% 1.2%
Q2 2016 12.6% 18.2% 39.4% 28.7% 1.2%
Q3 2016 12.6% 18.2% 39.2% 28.7% 1.3%
Q4 2016 12.5% 18.2% 39.2% 28.8% 1.3%
Q1 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.7% 1.3%
Q2 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.4%
Q3 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.4%
Q4 2017 12.5% 18.3% 39.3% 28.4% 1.4%
Q1 2018 12.4% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.5%
Q2 2018 12.3% 18.2% 39.4% 28.5% 1.6%
Q3 2018 12.4% 18.3% 39.5% 28.4% 1.5%
Q4 2018 11.9% 18.1% 39.6% 28.8% 1.6%
Q1 2019 12.3% 18.3% 39.7% 28.1% 1.6%
Q2 2019 12.3% 18.3% 39.7% 28.2% 1.6%
Q3 2019 12.1% 18.3% 39.7% 28.2% 1.7%
Q4 2019 12.4% 18.2% 39.5% 28.2% 1.7%
Q1 2020 11.7% 17.5% 39.3% 29.6% 1.8%
Q2 2020 12.3% 17.6% 38.9% 29.3% 2.0%
Q3 2020 12.5% 17.5% 38.6% 29.3% 2.1%
Q4 2020 13.0% 17.6% 38.3% 29.0% 2.2%
Q1 2021 13.2% 17.5% 37.9% 29.1% 2.3%
Q2 2021 13.4% 17.4% 37.6% 29.2% 2.3%
Q3 2021 13.5% 17.3% 37.4% 29.4% 2.4%
Q4 2021 13.7% 17.2% 37.2% 29.4% 2.4%
Q1 2022 13.6% 16.9% 36.9% 30.1% 2.5%
Q2 2022 13.1% 16.3% 36.5% 31.3% 2.7%
Q3 2022 13.2% 16.3% 36.4% 31.4% 2.7%
Q4 2022 13.4% 16.5% 36.5% 31.0% 2.6%
Q1 2023 13.5% 16.6% 36.5% 30.8% 2.6%
Q2 2023 13.5% 16.6% 36.4% 30.9% 2.6%
Q3 2023 13.4% 16.5% 36.4% 31.1% 2.5%
Q4 2023 13.6% 16.7% 36.5% 30.7% 2.5%
Q1 2024 13.7% 16.8% 36.5% 30.5% 2.5%
Q2 2024 13.7% 16.8% 36.4% 30.6% 2.5%
Q3 2024 14.0% 16.9% 36.5% 30.2% 2.4%
Q4 2024 14.0% 17.0% 36.4% 30.1% 2.5%
Q1 2025 13.9% 16.9% 36.4% 30.3% 2.5%
Q2 2025 14.1% 17.1% 36.4% 30.1% 2.5%
Q3 2025 14.4% 17.3% 36.4% 29.4% 2.5%
Q4 2025 14.5% 17.4% 36.4% 29.2% 2.5%

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Global Wealth Pyramid in 2025 on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 05:45

New Strikes On Iran Significantly Stronger Than Earlier Attacks, As IRGC Targets US Navy Warships

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New Strikes On Iran Significantly Stronger Than Earlier Attacks, As IRGC Targets US Navy Warships

Summary: 

  • US strikes on Iran announced, as ‘heavy costs’ for earlier targeting of multiple commercial vessels
  • Oil rises as Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil waiver
  • Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 
  • Three maritime incidents reported on Hormuz in last 24 hours 
  • Another unidentified vessel hit by a Drone
  • IRGC forces hit a Saudi Tanker 
  • IRGC forces hit a Qatari LNG tanker

*  *  *

‘Four to Five Times Larger’ Than Earlier Strikes

US officials are vowing bigger, more sustained and prolonged strikes against Iran tonight, according to the latest being reported in CNN and Axios:

The U.S. has launched a significantly expanded wave of airstrikes on Iran that is four to five times larger than the strikes carried out 10 days ago, a U.S. official told Axios. The official said the operation is expected to continue for hours.

Iran state media is meanwhile reporting on an initial retaliation by its forces (though not initially confirmed in other international sources):

Iran fires several anti-ship missiles and drones towards US Navy warships in the Sea of Oman, Fars reports 

More from state media on what could be mounting civilian casualties:

The state broadcaster reports that “most of the attacks” by the US in southern Iran have “targeted civilian areas”. This comes as the US claims its military hit Iranian missile and defence systems in its latest attacks.

Iran’s president is hastily traveling back to the Islamic Republic, cutting short funeral observances for Khamenei among Shia communities in Iraq:

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has left the Iraqi city of Najaf to return to Tehran, according to the IRIB broadcaster, following the US’s latest strikes.

Pezeshkian had been in Iraq to attend funeral rites for Khamenei, whose body had arrived in Najaf on Tuesday night. According to Press TV, Pezeshkian had also planned to hold high-level talks with Iraqi government officials.

US Launches New Iran Strikes, In First Since Ayatollah’s Funeral

The US military has announced it has commenced fresh strikes against Iran in the wake of projectiles striking multiple international tankers in the Strait of Hormuz earlier on Tuesday. US Central Command (CENTCOM) in a public X post says its “forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.”

“The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire,” it added. These will mark the first US strikes against the Islamic Republic since last Friday’s start of week-long funeral ceremonies for the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump had indicated a pause in both strikes and diplomacy was on in order for the burial to take place. The new US military escalation began around or just after midnight Tehran time.

Just before the start of the fresh Pentagon action, Mohsen Rezaei, adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Iranian state TV that American attempts to forge an alternative route in the Strait of Hormuz will lead to the failure of negotiations between the two states.

⁠”It ⁠is quite clear that the ⁠United States will lead the ⁠negotiations with Iran to failure,” Rezaei said. He also demanded the “the withdrawal of the United States from the region” – which can ensure lasting peace, he asserted. And now there could be a return to full war in Lebanon as well. Per breaking newswires:

  • Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon
  • US Strikes Targeted Air Defense Systems, Drone Sites: Axios
  • Several explosions have been heard near Sirik and Qeshm in southern Iran, according to Iran’s Fars news agency: Al Jazeera

As expected, Tehran has condemned the new attacks as a severe US violation of the MoU. Early reports suggest bombing raids on strategically situated small Iranian islands just off the Strait of Hormuz:

According to state TV, six explosions have been heard on the island of Qeshm which is the largest island in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, with very geostrategic significance when it comes to Iran’s control and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

The state TV also says that at least seven explosions have been heard in the areas close to Sirik Port which is very important because it oversees the Strait of Hormuz, another strategic point from which Iran imposes its control and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Waiver 

In a surprise move on Tuesday, the Trump admin revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on the open market, eliminating the primary economic benefit for Tehran as part of the interim peace deal/MOU with the US and threatening to unravel the agreement after days of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Treasury Department said the June 21 license granted to Iran after several months of war would no longer apply, an announcement that came hours after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The Treasury allowed for a grace period until July 17 for transactions already authorized under the license.

The price of oil rose sharply after the news, even as President Trump has boasted that his efforts to wind down the war with Iran have lowered the price of gas and other products. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude oil was almost $76.00 after the announcement, up about 5% on Monday’s closing price.

As the WSJ notes, since signing the MOU with Iran last month, which reopened the strait and ended the U.S. blockade on Iran, the US said it would only provide Tehran with financial incentives for abiding by the agreement. Allowing Iran to sell oil and to repatriate dollar-denominated revenue into the Iranian banking system was the most important incentive in convincing Tehran to enter a 60-day diplomatic process aimed at ultimately dismantling its nuclear program. 

The waiver was supposed to be in place for two months and could then have been extended. However, a US official told the WSJ that Iran’s actions in the strait were considered unacceptable and deserved a stern response. The U.S. would continue to negotiate with Iran toward a final agreement, the official said and Bloomberg added that “US official says negotiators continue to work in good faith towards a final and Iran’s actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the US and will be met with consequences.” An initial salvo perhaps, preparing for more direct action to come?

According to the Journal, US officials were surprised by Iran’s attacks on commercial ships amid ongoing negotiations and the funeral of the former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Trump administration has sought to set up a backchannel between the U.S. military and the IRGC, a powerful military and political force in Iran, but the IRGC has been slow to engage. 

The US has continued to coordinate with commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using a route that it cleared near the coast of Oman. Over the weekend, the IRGC warned ships that it was prepared to target them if they used the route promoted by the US and Oman. Early Tuesday, Iran fired antiship cruise missiles and one-way attack drones at vessels seeking to cross the southern route. Three ships were struck, including an LNG tanker, and the US downed some of drones. 

Meanwhile, American warships remain on standby to restart the blockade of Iranian ports should Trump choose to reimpose it.

In summary, the two most critical elements of the interim deal are now under threat: the oil sanctions relief and safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, the entire ceasefire is now in question. 

Other critical elements of the interim deal included the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and commerce, as well as an agreement by Tehran to maintain “the status quo” on its nuclear program and for the U.S. to do likewise on sanctions against Iran. Tehran was also negotiating for the release of some of its frozen funds trapped by U.S. sanctions.

Perhaps worst of all, people close to the talks say there has been no substantive progress made yet by the U.S. and Iranian teams on a final nuclear agreement, with technical talks on the issue barely commencing.

Nate Swanson, former National Security Council director for Iran and currently at the Atlantic Council, said the Treasury Department’s action establishes a direct link between the reopening of the strait and the oil sanctions waiver. For the interim deal to be stabilized, Washington and Tehran would have to work through issues left open by the interim deal, he said.

“Iran wants money and the U.S. wants the free flow of energy. The MoU is too volatile to survive without some follow-on deal as neither side is getting what they want with the current status quo,” he said.

One wonders if the decision means Washington has reverted to in effect giving the US Navy carte blanche to seize Iranian tankers, also as the Gulf region awaits likely American retaliation for the earlier Tuesday Iranian attacks (see below) on several international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

As a reminder, exactly a week ago we wrote the following: “Iran was euphoric when as part of the Trump MOU, it got permission to flood the world with its oil after Trump effectively eliminate sanctions that had been in place for multiple decades. However, it has quickly run into another, potentially far bigger problem: as the armada of Iranian oil tankers exits the Persian Gulf, it is now struggling to find buyers before the expiry of a 60-day window granted by Washington.”

* * * 

Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 

The Joint Maritime Information Center has upgraded the Hormuz chokepoint threat level to “Severe” after several tankers were targeted in the critical waterway.

Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew warned that at least three vessels were attacked in the Hormuz over the last 24 hours, with the possibility that as many as five ships were struck in the strait. “Traffic is continuing but has gone dark, with ships switching off AIS.”

Brew noted, “Hard to see how US can let this stand–reckon some kind of kinetic response is coming.”

Bloomberg commodities expert Javier Blas noted that while Iran attacked at least three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz today, it was simultaneously loading its own tankers at Kharg Island, the country’s key energy export hub.

“This just shows me that the Omani Route isn’t viable. Iran can still strike vessels. It’s really as simple as that. It’s not a solution,” Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors wrote on X. 

The latest Bloomberg ship-tracking data show vessel traffic through the Hormuz is declining today.

This could suggest that shipowners are refusing to transit the waterway amid the latest flare-up in IRGC drone and missile attacks. Another possibility is that more ships are going dark by switching off transponders before crossing, meaning the decline in visible traffic may understate actual flows through the chokepoint.

3rd Ship Attack Reignites Hormuz Crisis

IRGC forces hit a Qatari LNG tanker, a Saudi crude tanker, and an unidentified vessel in the Hormuz shipping channel in the last 24 hours.

Earlier, we reported that a fully loaded Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg later reported that a Saudi oil tanker suffered damage after being hit by IRGC projectiles.

Now, UKMTO is reporting a third incident:

UKMTO has received a report of a further incident involving a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker was struck by an unknown Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and has sustained minor structural damage. No casualties or environmental impact reported, and vessel is continuing to its next port of call.

Three attacks on the Hormuz shipping channel today will create significant unease among shipping companies and seriously test the US-Iran interim peace deal, which halted attacks several weeks ago and ended the US naval blockade on the critical waterway, allowing the normalization process to begin.

These attacks could deter shipowners from transiting the Hormuz chokepoint – slowing the normalization process – and may also derail UK and French plans to begin immediate naval mine-clearing operations.

Qatari LNG Tanker Hit By Iranian Missile In Hormuz Chokepoint

A fully loaded Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns that disruptions across the key energy maritime chokepoint could persist longer than traders had expected. Brent crude rose more than 1% to $72.76 a barrel as traders reassessed the war-risk premium in the Gulf area.

The Al Rekayyat, owned by Qatar’s state shipping company Nakilat, was struck early Tuesday about 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter and an alert from EOS Risk Group.

EOS said the maritime incident involved either an Iranian suicide drone or a missile strike that resulted in a fire on the Al Rekayyat. No casualties were reported.

Al Rekayyat was fully loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal, making it the first Qatari LNG carrier targeted since the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The tanker appeared to be transiting part of the Hormuz chokepoint with its transponder off, indicating it was not on an Iranian-approved shipping route.

Following the attack, another Qatari-loaded LNG carrier, Al Areesh, made an abrupt U-turn before entering the strait and began circling, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed. Other tankers continued to sail through the highly contested chokepoint, including oil tankers and LPG carriers, using both Iran-approved and US-managed routes.

Later today, President Trump heads to a NATO summit in Ankara, where the Iran conflict is expected to be the center of discussion among world leaders.

US-Iran talks remain suspended while Tehran holds funeral ceremonies for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Qatar has said negotiations will resume after the ceremonies.

UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst commented on market reaction:

Energy {UBXEENER} is among the best sectors on Tuesday after an LNG tanker was hit at Hormuz, rekindling fears around longer term disruption. Progress to normalise flows through strait appears to be stalling slightly with crossings still well below pre-conflict levels.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati noted:

Oil prices may remain under pressure in the near term as additional barrels from previously stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz reach the market. UBS Wealth Management CIO however believes the current price level overestimates how quickly traffic through the waterway will normalize as it takes time for shipping confidence to be fully restored and for tankers to return to the Persian Gulf to load oil for export. The Strait is now accommodating fewer ships than before the conflict began, and the recovery of shut-in production is likely to be slower than expected, CIO says, adding that broad commodity exposure continues to offer diversification benefits in a portfolio.

Vessel flows on the Hormuz chokepoint (transponders on) remain elevated but well below pre-war levels. This may only suggest the normalization process will take longer than expected.

Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said:

The continued use of different shipping lanes suggests that traffic through the strait remains operational, but is fragmented as shipowners adopt different routing strategies based on their individual risk assessments.

Latest Iran and Hormuz headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Strait of Hormuz Attacks

• Iran reportedly fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, with both vessels suffering significant damage but no casualties

• A Qatari LNG carrier, Al Rekayyat, was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast on Tuesday morning as it exited the Strait of Hormuz

• Another loaded LNG tanker, Al Areesh, appears to have U-turned in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday following the strikes

• The attacks are testing a late-June US-Iran deal intended to halt attacks in the waterway as the two sides work toward a peace agreement

Diplomatic Developments

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Tuesday that negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue, referencing a memorandum of understanding with the US

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Iraq on Tuesday to attend funeral processions for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled for Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala

Market Impact

• European natural gas prices surged as much as 6% on Tuesday, the most in a month, following the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with Brent trading near $73 a barrel, as the attacks highlighted continued risks to vessels in the critical waterway

• Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday, dropping as much as 1.2% to below $4,120 an ounce, as the Hormuz attacks rekindled inflation concerns

• France lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%, citing the Middle East conflict as a factor holding back output

Oil Trade Developments

• India’s state-run refiners are in talks with traders marketing Iranian crude and preparing to buy barrels if the US extends waivers beyond August or eases restrictions

• Two supertankers hauling Saudi crude are heading to the US for the first time since February, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Russia’s Urals crude price averaged $41.66 a barrel at western ports in early July, falling to pre-Iran war levels and less than half the level during the height of oil market turmoil in April

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 05:26

Spain: 70% Of Tested ‘Unaccompanied Minor’ Immigrants Are Actually Adults

survivalnomics
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Spain: 70% Of Tested ‘Unaccompanied Minor’ Immigrants Are Actually Adults

Via Remix News,

The Spanish city of Madrid has delivered a stark confirmation of long-standing suspicions about unaccompanied foreign immigrants claiming to be minors. When this group undergoes rigorous medical age verification, 70 percent turn out to be adults over 18.

This is not a handful of isolated incidents but a systemic pattern that has become the norm in Spain’s capital. The findings, detailed in official data and reported by Spanish outlet El Debate, underscore a growing “farce” in the handling of unaccompanied minor claims across the country.

In 2024, authorities in the Madrid region opened 848 age-determination proceedings for individuals claiming to be unaccompanied foreign minors — a sharp increase from 482 the previous year. More than half of these cases were archived because the claimants abandoned the process before completing the key medical test, which is a wrist X-ray for bone age assessment.

Of the 378 individuals who underwent the test, only 112 were confirmed as minors, while 266 were determined to be adults — approximately 70 percent.

The number of detected frauds tripled compared to the prior year. Since 2018, Madrid has handled more than 11,000 unaccompanied foreign minors in its protection system. In 2024 alone, 2,442 new young people entered the system. The regional government has already filed 29 police complaints after its own checks revealed adults improperly placed in minor-protection facilities.

Nationally, the Fiscalía General del Estado reported 7,562 pre-procedural age-determination cases in 2024. Of these, 2,457 concluded the individuals were adults, while many others either abandoned proceedings or received the benefit of the doubt.

Real benefits for fraud

As Remix News has reported in the past, claiming minor status grants significant advantages under Spanish and EU rules, including placement in specialized protection centers with housing, education, healthcare, and legal safeguards.

There is also significantly greater difficulty in deportation; and, in many cases, pathways to family reunification or residence permits unavailable to adults. Many claimants disappear from centers once age verification begins, avoiding confirmation of their true age.

Similar fraud seen across Europe

This Madrid revelation is far from unique. Remix News has extensively covered parallel cases of age fraud by migrants claiming unaccompanied minor status throughout Europe, often involving the same nationalities, notably Algerians, Moroccans, Tunisians, and Afghans.

France has seen some of the starkest figures. In the Marne department, bone analyses of 240 individuals claiming to be unaccompanied minors found that 80 percent (192 people) were actually adults.

French MP Charles de Courson highlighted the financial burden in a parliamentary speech, “Eighty percent of unaccompanied migrants in France’s northeast Marne department who declared themselves thus are not minors, with the cost of caring for these 160 false minors costing €5,000 per month, which equals for €60,000 per year for each one.”

A separate 2019 experiment by the Paris prosecutor’s office examined 154 formally identified “minors” and found 91.6 percent (141) were adults via medical exams. Prosecutors noted that adults were systematically exploiting the protective regime established for minors under a 1945 law.

Belgium reported comparable results. A study of data from Justice Minister Koen Geens showed that of 4,563 migrants declaring themselves minors, authorities doubted 2,546 claims. Age tests on a sample revealed that 73.7 percent were over 18. Flemish MP Tom Van Grieken stated bluntly: “Asylum seekers guilty of age fraud should be denied the right to asylum.”

Sweden recorded an even higher rate: health authorities found 84 percent of tested “child migrants” were actually 18 or older. In Germany, forensic examinations in Münster showed around 40 percent of examined “unaccompanied minor refugees” were demonstrably adults, with many sharing suspicious January 1 birthdates — a common indicator of fabricated identities.

Remix News has also documented specific incidents in Spain itself that align with this pattern. In one Madrid case reported in October 2025, a Moroccan man accused of raping a 14-year-old girl claimed to be 17; age verification determined he was likely 23, with 14 prior convictions, leading to his case being transferred to adult court.

A European Parliament fact-finding mission to Spain’s Canary Islands similarly found that roughly half of unaccompanied minors there were actually adults, highlighting failures in age assessment amid high illegal arrivals.

An issue across Europe

Across Europe, the incentive structure remains largely unchanged, with minor status providing immediate protection and resources while adult status often leads to faster removal proceedings. Medical tests, such as bone density, dental, or wrist X-rays, are imperfect but consistently reveal high fraud rates when applied. Some countries are reacting with stricter testing, but often left-wing parties want to ban such tests altogether.

The Madrid Fiscalía’s 2024 data adds Spain to the growing list of European jurisdictions where official statistics confirm that the “unaccompanied minor” category is being heavily exploited. With over 11,000 cases handled in Madrid alone since 2018 and frauds tripling in a single year, the scale suggests the problem is not anecdotal but structural.

As European governments grapple with migration pressures, these consistent findings from across Europe show a reality that is not going away. Without adequate and robust testing age verification and meaningful consequences for fraud, the EU system will continue to reward deception from Europe’s rapidly growing illegal migrant population.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 05:00

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